Jim Dandy | Andrew Champagne

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/30/22)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $798.20

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FRIDAY’S RESULTS: I took a shot against an 8/5 favorite in the fifth race, one that backfired when it won as clearly the best horse. I dropped $30.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the early part of the card, and I sincerely hope we get the 5-1 morning line price on #3 TATUM in the opener. I’ll have a $15 win bet, and I’ll single him in $5 doubles ending with #6 C’EST MAGNIFIQUE, #7 MONTEPULCIANO, and #8 DECCAN PRINCE in the second.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Jackie’s Warrior, Race 8
Longshot: Big Bobby, Race 5

Tatum
Swiss Guard
Capture the Flag

#3 TATUM: Is the only horse in this field with a start, and it was a good one. He missed by a nose at Parx, has fired a bullet drill since then, and attracts his rider from Philadelphia to come north to Saratoga for just one mount; #2 SWISS GUARD: Has a few solid gate drills for Steve Asmussen and is bred to be a good one. He’s a son of American Pharoah, and his dam is a half to Grade 1-placed runner Holiday Soiree; #5 CAPTURE THE FLAG: Is bred very, very well and has worked consistently for Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey ahead of his debut. However, the fantastic pedigree also says he probably wants turf, so there’s a chance this is a tightener for another race down the line.

C’Est Magnifique
Deccan Prince
Montepulciano

#6 C’EST MAGNIFIQUE: Looks like another well-meant first-time starter from the Chad Brown barn and will likely be bet accordingly. This son of Kitten’s Joy is out of a Grade 3-placed mare, one who’s kin to multiple stakes-winner Royal Son; #8 DECCAN PRINCE: Debuted with an OK third in a turf sprint downstate and stretches out at second asking. Blinkers go on, he’s posted a recent bullet drill, and the pedigree says the added distance shouldn’t be a problem; #7 MONTEPULCIANO: Hammered for $210,000 last September at Keeneland and debuts for Todd Pletcher. The recent seven-furlong drill over the Oklahoma turf course is noteworthy, as is the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., who landed here when he likely had a few options.

Wolfe County
Endowed
Bold Victory

#9 WOLFE COUNTY: Has run well twice since moving to the Ken McPeek barn and broke his maiden going a bit longer last time out. Prior to that, he just missed by a head behind one who came back to win again, and I think he’s turned a corner and sitting on another nice outing; #8 ENDOWED: Has stepped forward with every start and was second last time out in his first try against winners. This is his first two-turn try, but this son of Belmont winner Tonalist may still have room to improve in just his fourth career outing; #7 BOLD VICTORY: Has won twice this season and returns to a two-turn route of ground for this one. He’s performed well over such configurations in the past, even running fourth in a $400,000 stakes race back in 2020.

Doozy Batz (MTO)
Devilly
Diamant Damhsa

#8 DEVILLY: Is probably in a “now or never” situation, going back to the maiden claiming ranks in search of her first career win in her 11th career outing. She’s been competitive against better groups and looms large on speed figures, though, and she seems like the class of this bunch; #5 DIAMANT DAMHSA: Enjoyed a perfect trip when third going seven furlongs downstate and cuts back a bit for this event. She’s got the early speed to be prominent early, and perhaps she’s getting better with experience for one of the top trainers in the game; #11 SPARKLING WATER: Gets back to the turf for the first time since her debut and merits a look at a bonkers price. She’s by Get Stormy, out of a War Front mare, and boasts a 354 turf Tomlinson rating, the second-best such number in the field.

Bank On Shea
Amundson
Big Bobby

#1 BANK ON SHEA: Has won several stakes races and gets a bit of class relief in this optional claiming event. His prior connections saw fit to try the Grade 1 Carter earlier in the year, and a return to that early-2022 form would make him the one to beat, even from a tricky inside post; #4 AMUNDSON: Won here a season ago and would certainly move forward on a wet track. However, that’s not a requirement for him to run well. He exits several strong races for the level, and he could sit an ideal stalking trip; #7 BIG BOBBY: Has every right to improve second off a long layoff, and his 2021 form was quite strong. That season included a pair of second-place finishes over this track, and his record looks far better if you toss the races directly before and after the five-month break.

Marvelous Maude
Blissful
Wicked Groove

#1 MARVELOUS MAUDE: Has never finished out of the money in seven career starts and makes a lot of sense here. Her last-out score against state-breds at Belmont was sharp, and while this is probably a tougher group, she should have plenty of pace to run at; #5 BLISSFUL: Faced a tall task in her first try off a long layoff and had too much to do in a race without much early zip. Still, she was beaten less than two lengths in a stakes race, and she looked good when winning here at first asking last summer; #6 WICKED GROOVE: Goes to the Rob Atras barn second off the layoff, and it’s intriguing to see Flavien Prat aboard. She’s run very well going two turns on turf, and her eight turf starts include four wins and seven top-three finishes.

Tommy Gun (MTO)
Mister Chairman
Built to Last

#5 MISTER CHAIRMAN: Was a fast-closing second in his debut, which came against maiden claimers. This barn protects him here, though, and with the amount of speed horses signed on, this late-runner stands to benefit from the likely race shape; #1 BUILT TO LAST: Was clear by three lengths in mid-stretch last time out before finishing third behind a next-out winner. The cutback in distance could suit him, and he has the early speed to make the rail draw an asset; #4 FEATHERS ROAD: Has been a consistent check-getter at this level and figures to take plenty of betting money. However, he’s got a history of finding trouble, and it’s tough for me to endorse those runners at short prices. Given his likely odds, I’ll try to beat him.

Jackie’s Warrior
Willy Boi
Ny Traffic

#4 JACKIE’S WARRIOR: Has done plenty to earn the mantle of America’s top sprinter and looms large in the Grade 1 A.G. Vanderbilt. Four of his 11 wins have come here at Saratoga, including a huge one over Life Is Good in last year’s Grade 1 Allen Jerkens. Anything close to his best would make for quite a show here; #2 WILLY BOI: Is 3-for-3 since a trainer switch, and one of those wins was a score in the Grade 3 Smile Sprint at Gulfstream Park. It’s possible he’s a “horse for the course,” but if his form travels north with him, he could rally for a piece of it; #3 NY TRAFFIC: Comes in off of a pair of scores in listed stakes races, and his lone loss this season came to Speaker’s Corner in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Mile. His local works are sharp, and he’s certainly found life as a sprinter after contesting Triple Crown races in 2020.

Epicenter
Early Voting
Zandon

#2 EPICENTER: Did everything but win the Kentucky Derby and rallied for second in the Preakness despite a slow start. This short field should provide no such obstacles. I expect him to sit his preferred trip, and I think that journey will make him tough in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy; #4 EARLY VOTING: Got the trip in the Preakness and had enough left late to hold off Epicenter, which isn’t easy to do. His lone loss to date came to eventual Belmont winner Mo Donegal in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial, and further improvement could allow him to keep rolling; #5 ZANDON: Won the Grade 1 Blue Grass and looked like a possible winner turning for home in the Derby. However, he never got past Epicenter, and while he’s a definite Travers contender later in the season, I’m concerned he won’t get the pace he may want here given the short field and lack of early zip.

R10

Capensis
Three Jokers (MTO)
Ricochet

#12 CAPENSIS: Hammered for $2 million in 2020 and looked every bit of that price when he stormed home clear by five lengths in his debut earlier this month. This is his first try against winners, and the post position isn’t ideal, but there’s reason to believe he’s simply a freak and much better than this bunch; #8 RICOCHET: Does his best running around two turns and came home a winner downstate against starter allowance company. Mike Maker’s barn is doing very well to this point in the meet, and this one’s versatility should give Luis Saez some options; #10 COLOSSEO: Makes his American debut and gets Lasix for the first time, which is always a notable angle. He got very good last season, when he was second behind the ultra-talented St. Mark’s Basilica in one Group 1 race and chased eventual Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Space Blues home in another.

R11

Big Agenda
Monarchs Glen
Jack the Cat

#3 BIG AGENDA: Has won twice this year, including a two-back event at this level downstate, and earns a tepid nod in a wide-open turf race. He’s won seven times in 33 races, with 20 in-the-money finishes, and he’s a consistent sort that always seems to run the same race; #16 MONARCHS GLEN: Needs a lot of luck to run here but is a must-use if he does. He hasn’t won in quite a while, but most of his races have come against far classier opponents, and that may be enough to carry him through despite a very wide post; #7 JACK THE CAT: Has proven to be very sharp at this level and goes first off the claim for a barn that excels with new acquisitions. The rider switch to Joel Rosario is a big one, and the faster they go early, the better this one’s chances figure to be.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/31/21)

Posted on July 29, 2021 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $983.60

These are the cards that make Saratoga special. We’ll see a trio of graded stakes races with some of the most well-known horses in the sport. Belmont Stakes hero Essential Quality headlines the Jim Dandy, Whitmore runs up against a strong field in the A.G. Vanderbilt, and multiple Grade 1 winner Channel Maker makes his first start after a trip abroad in the Bowling Green.

Combine that slate with a bunch of big fields in undercard races, and you have a card that should give even the most jaded handicapper a jolt of excitement. On a day like this, you only need to be right once or twice to have a profitable afternoon, and that’s all I can possibly ask for.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Collaborate loomed boldly in the Curlin, but seemingly forgot how to turn left with about a quarter-mile to go. I got a bit of a thrill at odds of 8-1, but ultimately dropped $20.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’m focusing on the Vanderbilt, because I don’t like #2 MISCHEVIOUS ALEX at all. It goes as the eighth race on the program, and I’ll box #1 LEXITONIAN, #6 WHITMORE, and #9 SPECIAL RESERVE in $2 exactas. I’ll also use those three horses in the middle of a $2 Pick Three starting in the seventh. I’ll use #2 INVINCIBLE GAL and #8 LOVE AND THUNDER there and single #5 ESSENTIAL QUALITY in the ninth, the Jim Dandy.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Essential Quality, Race 9
Longshot: Lexitonian, Race 8

Master Game
Kevin’s Folly
Woodline

#2 MASTER GAME: Hammered for $300,000 last year and has several flashy gate drills for soon-to-be Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher. Expectations are high for offspring of young sire Mastery, and this one looks pretty precocious; #3 KEVIN’S FOLLY: Also shows a solid work pattern coming into his unveiling. He’s bred to want far more distance than this 5 1/2-furlong event, but Tom Amoss has already unveiled one flashy 2-year-old this meet and may have more bullets in the chamber; #6 WOODLINE: Has a major experience edge on the field and was second behind a runaway winner that ran in the Grade 3 Sanford earlier in the meet. He does have some early speed, but he appears to have hooked some promising first-time starters and may need to improve further to win.

Majestic Sky
Eight Weeks Long
Gateway Guardian

#12 MAJESTIC SKY: Is a tepid top selection in the first of several very befuddling turf races on the Saturday program. He was inexplicably rated behind a very slow pace last time out at Belmont, and in this event, he sure looks like not just the main speed, but like a horse whose hand is forced by the far outside draw; #3 EIGHT WEEKS LONG: Exits the same race as my top pick and ran third that day while sitting a bit closer to the pace than usual. That may have been an aberration given the slow pace, but his usual effort would give him a shot; #4 GATEWAY GUARDIAN: Didn’t do much running first time out, but debuting in a one-mile race is no easy task and David Donk’s horses usually need a race or two to get going. I think he could improve at a price, and it wouldn’t take a huge step forward to get a piece of this.

Zilla entry
Cathy Naz
Saratoga Beauty

ZILLA ENTRY: Both #1 MISS LIANA and #1A FLAT AWESOME JENNY could win this, and they certainly look like the class of the field. The former has a bit more tactical speed and returns to the right level, so I’d give her the slight edge if I had to choose one; #3 CATHY NAZ: Has run a few solid races over this track and seems to be working well ahead of her first start since January. Saez sees fit to ride for Bond, and he was aboard for her one recent win; #4 SARATOGA BEAUTY: Makes her first start off the claim for Ray Handal, whose barn may be starting to heat up. Her form this past winter and spring was solid, and she’s got more tactical speed than she showed last time out downstate.

High Tone
Pivotal Run
Brennan’s War

#7 HIGH TONE: Ran very well in his first start since last July when second in a two-turn turf route at Churchill. That was against open company, and he’s back against New York-breds in his first start for new trainer Ron Moquett; #3 PIVOTAL RUN: Had every right to need his last-out effort off of such a long layoff, and he was claimed out of that race by George Weaver, who excels with new acquisitions. He was a good second at this route in his debut last summer, and a return to two turns could help him find his form; #8 BRENNAN’S WAR: Made a bit of a move when third in his debut last month, and that effort came from a barn whose first-time starters don’t often win. I’m not sure what he ran against that day, but figures-wise, it was a solid effort that gives him a chance here.

Honey Money
Behind the Couch
Out First

#5 HONEY MONEY: Is far better than she showed last time out, when she faded to sixth in the mud earlier in the meet. She’s no fan of wet racetracks, and she reeled off three wins in a row over fast surfaces prior to that misfire; #4 BEHIND THE COUCH: Earned her first win in quite a while last time out after several close calls following a claim by John Salzman. This is her first start against New York-bred competition since last June, and perhaps the lightbulb has gone off; #8 OUT FIRST: Just never seemed like she was interested last time out, and I have no problem drawing a line through that clunker. She’s been competitive at this level many times, and she’d benefit from a pace meltdown.

Causin’ Mayhem (MTO)
Ohtwoohthreefive
Doctor Davis

#7 OHTWOOHTHREEFIVE: Was very impressive when second in his debut downstate. He rated well off of a slow pace but made up enough ground to finish second, beaten just two lengths. He’s bred to love two turns and will be formidable if he holds his form; #10 DOCTOR DAVIS: Has been working very fast for a Bill Mott trainee ahead of his debut. Mott’s first-time starters don’t usually turn in bullet drills, as he did on July 2nd, and he may be talented enough to have a say in this one at a bit of a price; #1 SWEEPING GIANT: Is one of two Todd Pletcher runners that will debut here. I prefer this one over #4 ROYAL SPIRIT. His dam was ultra-classy turf runner Isabella Sings, who did her best work going long.

Trumpet Lilly (MTO)
Invincible Gal
Love And Thunder

#2 INVINCIBLE GAL: Was favored in the Tepin Stakes but went up against a very unfavorable race shape, as the wire-to-wire winner coasted on an easy pace. Blinkers go on, she gets Lasix for the first time, and these waters certainly seem shallower; #8 LOVE AND THUNDER: Is a logical favorite after a tough beat last time out. She nearly overcame a pretty slow pace that day, and the third-place finisher from that event came back to win at next asking; #7 HIGH OPINION: Cuts back in distance after finishing second going a mile and a quarter at Belmont. She’s been second three times in four tries against winners, and while her figures give her a chance, sometimes horses turn into pack animals that have a tough time passing others late.

Special Reserve
Whitmore
Lexitonian

#9 SPECIAL RESERVE: Has really turned a corner since being claimed by Mike Maker in February. He’s won four of his last five starts, including two stakes races, and between his tactical speed and the cushy outside draw, I think he’s the one to beat in the Grade 1 A.G. Vanderbilt; #6 WHITMORE: Is one of the coolest horses in training and returns to Saratoga for another race or two at the summer place to be. He’s still competitive at the highest level as an 8-year-old, and any hesitation here is because it’s his first start off a layoff and he may need a race to get going; #1 LEXITONIAN: Is a nose and a head away from being a two-time Grade 1 winner. His Met Mile was too terrible to be true, but his two-back effort in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs was excellent, as was a recent local workout. If he’s right, he’s got a shot to take this at a big price.

Essential Quality
Masqueparade
Weyburn

#5 ESSENTIAL QUALITY: Is probably the top 3-year-old in training and looms large in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy. The three-time Grade 1 winner earned a 109 Beyer Speed Figure in winning the Belmont Stakes, and anything remotely close to that would easily dispatch this bunch; #2 MASQUEPARADE: Has moved forward significantly in his last several starts, one of which was a win in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby. He beat a decent field that day and has every right to be getting better midway through his 3-year-old season; #3 WEYBURN: Gave eventual Haskell winner Mandaloun all he could handle in the Pegasus at Monmouth last time out and has shown two turns is not a problem. The recent string of bullet drills can’t be ignored, and neither can the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr.

R10

Channel Maker
Cross Border
Moon Over Miami

#5 CHANNEL MAKER: Emerged as the East Coast’s top turf horse a season ago and makes his first start following an expedition to the Arabian Peninsula. Between his back class and the fact that he looks like the lone speed, I think he’ll sit an ideal trip and be very tough to run down in the Grade 2 Bowling Green; #2 CROSS BORDER: Won this race a season ago by DQ and does his best running over this turf course. He hasn’t won in a while, but it isn’t like he hasn’t been competitive and perhaps he’ll relish a return to upstate New York; #7 MOON OVER MIAMI: Wants to sit back and make one run, and has done so to fair success this season with three in-the-money finishes in graded stakes races. That includes a close-up third last time out downstate, and he’s shown enough class to be respected here.

R11

Villainous (MTO)
Morocco
Hieroglyphics

#3 MOROCCO: Takes a gigantic drop second off the claim, which can be seen as a good or bad thing. In this case, I think he’s coming back to the right level, and if he channels his form from this past winter, he could be more than good enough to beat this bunch; #8 HIEROGLYPHICS: Has won three of six at Saratoga, and the most recent score here last summer kick-started a run of four wins in six starts. One of them was a win at this level downstate, and if he brought his form to the barn of new trainer Dominick Schettino, he’ll have a big shot; #7 TIZZARUNNER: Was second last time out at this level at Churchill, and he put forth that effort despite having to close into a slow pace. He’s a major player here, but this isn’t an easy spot for the level and he may want more pace than he’s likely to get in the Saturday finale.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (9/5/20)

Posted on September 4, 2020 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $618.20

As mentioned in yesterday’s bankroll blurb, in celebration of Kentucky Derby Day, J.D. Fox and I produced a special edition of “Champagne and J.D.” Joe Nevills joined us, and we reached out to our friends for videos about their Derby memories and their feelings on this year’s renewal.

The show went online Friday, and we’re thrilled with how it came out. J.D. and I are both incredibly grateful for the support we got from the racing community. You’ll see videos from some heavy hitters in handicapping and turf writing, and I’m confident in saying this isn’t something you’ll find most anywhere else. You won’t want to miss this, especially if you’re just starting to take a look at the Run for the Roses.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Raven Rocks ran well after stumbling out of the gate, but could do no better than a “bet him next time at this level” mid-pack finish. Meanwhile, at Churchill Downs, the first of my doubles connected, but the second one fizzled when Swiss Skydiver couldn’t get past Shedaresthedevil (in a stretch run that’ll be in my nightmares for a few months). After scratches, I dropped $28.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’m focusing entirely on the Kentucky Derby. If you watched the show, this will sound familiar, but I have two feelings: #17 TIZ THE LAW should not lose, and #3 ENFORCEABLE will hit the board. As such, I’m playing $1 17-ALL-3 and 17-3-ALL trifectas as my primary action. I’ll also box those two in $4 exactas and play a $4 win ticket using Enforceable just in case something insane happens.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Sifting Sands, Race 7
Longshot: Regular Guy, Race 5

Tackle
Kaz’s Beach
Make Motime

#3 TACKLE: Ran well when second in his debut despite rating behind a pretty slow pace early on. Bill Mott runners tend to improve with experience, and any sort of a step forward would make him tough in the Saturday opener; #1 KAZ’S BEACH: Exits a very fast race at Penn National, one where he ran second behind a next-out winner and thumped the third-place finisher by more than eight lengths. These waters are certainly deeper, but that race came back strong on figures and it wouldn’t be shocking if he was ready to go; #8 MAKE MOTIME: Comes back to the turf, but has shown some early zip and this race seems light on that elsewhere. I don’t think he can win, but hanging on for a piece at a big price doesn’t hit me as inconceivable.

Repole entry
Vineyard Sound
Deep Sea

REPOLE ENTRY: #1 WIN WITH PRIDE hasn’t run a clunker since 2018 and takes a big drop in class. That’s a red flag for some connections, but this is an aggressive owner/trainer combination, so it doesn’t scare me too much here; #4 VINEYARD SOUND: Ran too bad to be true last time out earlier in the meet and was claimed that day by Rob Atras, who does excellent work with new acquisitions. A repeat of his effort two back would give him a shot at a nice price; #6 DEEP SEA: Won here two back before catching a strong group for the level last time out. Orlando Noda claimed him out of that race, and his barn has been on fire all summer long.

Silky Blue
Graetz
Fractorzation

#7 SILKY BLUE: Cuts back in distance and seems like a horse who should relish this route of ground. There’s a lot of speed signed on, and she seems likely to sit a stalking trip and be going in the right direction turning for home; #5 GRAETZ: Ran well in her first start against winners last time out. She was third in what seemed like a strong heat for the level, and Luis Saez sees fit to ride back for H. James Bond; #4 FRACTORZATION: Survived a lengthy inquiry last time out when she herded a foe in the stretch. I think she should’ve come down that day, but it did come back pretty fast on figures and Jose Ortiz returns to ride her here.

My Sister Nat
Eliade
Civil Union

#4 MY SISTER NAT: Broke a long drought when winning the Grade 3 Waya earlier in the meet. That was her first victory in nearly two years, and she seems to have found the form she flashed overseas in 2018, when she raced against the best fillies in France; #5 ELIADE: Saw a big move fall short last time out, when she was beaten a neck at this route of ground. There should be more pace signed on here, and this one completes a powerful 1-2 punch for trainer Chad Brown; #1 CIVIL UNION: Has won two in a row, including a minor stakes race going long at Belmont Park. Jose Ortiz leaves to ride my top pick, but Joel Rosario is no downgrade and she could sit a strong stalking trip just off the early speed.

Munqad
Olympiad
Regular Guy

#1 MUNQAD: Is a reluctant top pick in a 2-year-old race that seems loaded with high-class horses. This one is a half-brother to Grade 3 winner Shagaf, who showed promise early in his career. The recent strong gate work also inspires confidence; #5 OLYMPIAD: Debuted with a third-place finish behind the ultra-impressive Reinvestment Risk last month. He’s bred to get better with experience and distance, so I’m expecting a step forward in this spot; #4 REGULAR GUY: Didn’t run well in his debut, but this barn’s runners almost always need their first races. He’s bred up and down to be very good, as his dam has thrown multiple Grade 1 winner Carpe Diem and multiple Grade 2 winner Farrell. Ignoring him at second asking seems like a mistake.

Timely Tradition
Pop a Choc
Carrizo

#5 TIMELY TRADITION: Suffered from a horrible trip last time out and could only manage a fourth-place finish after checking multiple times and making an aggressive middle move. She won three in a row prior to that race, and I’m banking on a clean trip and a return to that form; #4 POP A CHOC: Set a fast pace in her first start against winners, one where she tired a bit to finish third. She seems like the main early speed in here, and she’ll be dangerous if she gets left alone up front; #1 CARRIZO: Hasn’t won in a while but ran well to be second against similar early in the meet. That day’s winner came back to win at next asking, and this one has two wins and two seconds in four starts at the Spa.

Sifting Sands
Fulco
Hidden Enemy

#7 SIFTING SANDS: Is one of several 2-year-olds with monstrous turf pedigrees in the barn of trainer Chad Brown. His 407 turf Tomlinson is one of the highest you’ll ever see, and if he runs to his bloodlines, look out; #2 FULCO: Didn’t show much in his debut after a rough start but may benefit from experience and added distance. He’s by War Front, out of a Smart Strike mare, and runs for a barn whose horses often improve with experience; #9 HIDDEN ENEMY: Flattened out late after rallying in a race with a slow early pace. The outside post position isn’t ideal, but this son of all-world sire Galileo may be talented enough to overcome the draw.

Barleewon
Good Old Boy
Microsecond

#4 BARLEEWON: Runs as a gelding for the first time after a disappointing effort in his first start against winners. Perhaps he’s best at Belmont or around one turn, but I liked him last time and I’m willing to give him another shot at a bit of a price; #3 GOOD OLD BOY: Came back running off a very long layoff to top state-bred claimers earlier in the meet. He’s got three wins and two seconds in his last five starts, and while this is a slight jump in class, it seems like he’s figured things out; #2 MICROSECOND: Took to turf well when winning his first start on the grass last month. He sat a perfect stalking trip that day, but Jose Ortiz rides back for Todd Pletcher and he may have the speed to take advantage of the rail draw.

Dr Post
Happy Saver
Liveyourbeastlife

#6 DR POST: Wouldn’t have been too out of place had his connections opted to ship him to Churchill Downs. However, they opted to run here, and the runner-up in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes looms large in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy; #1 HAPPY SAVER: Completes a powerful 1-2 punch for trainer Todd Pletcher and takes an aggressive jump in class after a pair of impressive victories. He showed he could get two turns just fine in his first start against winners, and he may still have room to improve; #2 LIVEYOURBEASTLIFE: Ran a career-best race in his first start around two turns last time out. Perhaps he’s a cut below these, but Jorge Abreu’s enjoyed a lot of success this summer and maybe this one is getting a chance to run at the route he’s wanted all along.

R10

Frank’s Rockette
Center Aisle
Kimari

#5 FRANK’S ROCKETTE: Has never finished worse than second and is a logical top pick in the Grade 2 Prioress. She had her hands full in the Grade 3 Victory Ride, but there’s plenty of back form to go off of here and she may be the speed of the speed; #7 CENTER AISLE: Adds blinkers for the first time and has been training well since coming to upstate New York. If she runs to the impressive work tab, she could be sitting on a career-best effort at a fair price; #1 KIMARI: Ran second in a Group 1 at Royal Ascot in June and comes back to the dirt here. She’s got tons of talent, and perhaps she’s good enough, but the rail draw is a concern given her late-running style and I think she’s better on turf. At her likely price, I’ll try to beat her.

R11

Tacitus
Spinoff
Global Campaign

#2 TACITUS: Put it all together with a big win in the Grade 2 Suburban on Independence Day and has trained consistently up to the Grade 1 Woodward. The 10-furlong distance won’t beat him, and while he’s found trouble several times in the past, it’s tough to envision him losing with a clean journey; #5 SPINOFF: Jumps up the class ladder after a solid win in the Alydar several weeks ago. He’s done his best running over this surface, and he goes like a horse that won’t be bothered by the extra furlong he’ll go here; #4 GLOBAL CAMPAIGN: Re-rallied to win a Grade 3 at Monmouth last time out and may be the main speed in this race. Top gate rider Luis Saez returns to the saddle here; the question is, how much gas will this front-runner have left in the tank turning for home?

R12

Life On Top
Our Country
Kid Chocolate

#8 LIFE ON TOP: Takes a big class drop to run in this claiming event and merits respect given his prior form. He’ll race with blinkers for the first time, and I think he’ll relish the shallower waters in the Saturday finale; #1 OUR COUNTRY: Is another taking a huge drop, and it wasn’t long ago that I liked him a lot in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Perhaps he’s not the same horse he was a season ago, but he may not have to be to run well in this spot; #3 KID CHOCOLATE: Has run well at this level twice this meet after breaking his maiden three back at Belmont. He’s improved with every start since coming off the bench in June and should be rallying late at a bit of a price.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/27/19)

Posted on July 25, 2019 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $805

Over the past few years, I’ve wondered aloud why the Curlin Stakes is carded for the same week as the Jim Dandy. Every year, without fail, an ungraded, $100,000 race takes one or two horses that may have been contenders in Saratoga’s main prep for the Travers. Simply put, it doesn’t make any sense to me.

Here’s the idea I seem to pitch annually: Move the Curlin to Travers Day. I’d rather lose a few 30-1 shots from that race than lose 8-1 shots from the Jim Dandy. This would give the Curlin a similar purpose to that of the Easy Goer, which is run on the Belmont Stakes undercard. It would be a far better fit on the calendar in that spot, and I sincerely hope rational logic prevails sooner rather than later.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Doubles were rendered null and void when the second race was moved from turf to dirt.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ve never been a real believer in this year’s bunch of American turf horses (aside from Bricks and Mortar). With that in mind, I’ll put some money behind Chilean invader #3 YA PRIMO in race 10, the Grade 2 Bowling Green. I’ll put $10 on him to win and place, and I’ll also play $5 doubles singling him that start in the ninth (the Grade 1 A.G. Vanderbilt) with #1 MITOLE and #4 FIRENZE FIRE.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

– – – – –

BEST BET: Grandview entry, Race 4
LONGSHOT: Ya Primo, Race 10

Teachable Moment
Wild Weekend
Blacktop Legend

#3 TEACHABLE MOMENT: Takes a big drop for formidable connections in just his second start of the season. A return to his 2018 form would almost certainly be good enough to beat these; #8 WILD WEEKEND: Debuts for Joe Sharp and sports several solid works ahead of his unveiling. This barn has had success with firsters in maiden claimers, and he may be a square price; #6 BLACKTOP LEGEND: Cuts back in distance after tiring a bit going a mile downstate. His lone turf sprint to date was OK, and Rosario riding back is a plus.

Rapido Gatta
Doll Collection
Quasar

#1 RAPIDO GATTA: Raced very wide when third last time out at Belmont. The rail draw, while not ideal, should ensure she covers less ground, and she seems to have enough early zip to establish position; #3 DOLL COLLECTION: Regally-bred daughter of Tapit and star sprinter Groupie Doll cuts back in distance after finishing second going a mile at Churchill. The blinkers seem to have helped, and she may be on the improve; #7 QUASAR: Comes back to dirt after a failed experiment on turf last time out and also adds blinkers. Her races two and three back were fine, and the recent clunker could mean a solid price.

Flying P entry (MTO)
Mission Command
Spectrolite

#5 MISSION COMMAND: Clearly prefers the grass and relished a return to the lawn last month at Belmont. That race came at this level, and while this came up as a pretty salty race for the level, his best would make him a contender at a price; #8 SPECTROLITE: Drops in class for this event and certainly seems like the main speed in here. His lone start at this route was a win in a 2017 starter allowance, and he’s hit the board in 11 of 13 career outings; #6 SCOUT’S HONOR: Found himself on the lead last time out, and that’s not his game. The 10-year-old veteran is best when stalking the pace, and he may get that trip here.

Grandview entry
Kowalski
Complexifier

GRANDVIEW ENTRY: Both #1 SHOPLIFTED and #1A SOVIET can win this, and it wouldn’t be a shock if the two colts ran 1-2. I prefer the former, who fetched $800,000 earlier this year at auction and boasts a very strong gate drill on July 14th; #5 KOWALSKI: Ran pretty well when third in his debut, and this barn doesn’t usually have firsters ready to roll. His pedigree says he’ll get better with more experience; #7 COMPLEXIFIER: Will likely be a big price, as this barn’s horses usually need a race or two to get going. However, his workouts are sharp, and I think he has a big shot to outrun his odds.

Control Group (MTO)
Emaraaty
Keep Quiet

#7 EMARAATY: Makes his first start in more than a year after coming over from Europe, where he ran against some of the best horses on the continent. His running lines are dotted with names like Expert Eye, U S Navy Flag, and Mendelssohn, and if he’s ready, he likely wins; #9 KEEP QUIET: Loves Saratoga and has run well in all four of his starts this season. This will be his first start for the Steve Asmussen barn, and he should be running well late; #2 FRONTIER MARKET: Won two in a row late last year before heading to the sidelines and merits respect for the Brown barn. If his stablemate isn’t 100%, he has a big shot.

More Mischief
Makin’ Out
Flashpackinbarbie

#9 MORE MISCHIEF: Was second in her return to the races back in May and flashed talent as a 2-year-old. Her recent local drills look strong, and she may be able to rate off of what figures to be a fast early pace; #1 MAKIN’ OUT: Romped here last year, but hasn’t been seen in the afternoon since September. She’s worked well of late and may be ready to run; #5 FLASHPACKINBARBIE: Waltzed home by more than eight lengths in her debut at Aqueduct and earned a strong 77 Beyer Speed Figure. She’s been freshened up since then and may be ready to take a step forward at second asking.

Economic Policy
Blanket of Roses
Are You Kitten Me

#5 ECONOMIC POLICY: Fetched $210,000 at auction in 2017 and is a half-brother to two winners. He’s bred to love two turns on turf and gets my nod in a tricky 2-year-old race; #2 BLANKET OF ROSES: Completes a strong 1-2 punch for Chad Brown and is another that should like this journey. His dam is a full sister to Grade 3 winner Derby Kitten, and the presence of Javier Castellano doesn’t hurt; #6 ARE YOU KITTEN ME: Isn’t necessarily bred to be precocious, but he’s been working well for a very capable outfit and attracts Jose Ortiz. He’s cross-entered in a race at Ellis Park, but if he runs here, I think he’s a contender.

Fortune’s Fool
Chateau
Overdeliver

#5 FORTUNE’S FOOL: Dueled through fast fractions last time out before being reeled in by a talented 3-year-old, and this seems like a weaker spot. Castellano rides back, and a repeat effort should be enough to get the job done; #4 CHATEAU: Reeled off three wins in a row not long ago and figures to be on or near the lead early on. He’d likely prefer a wet track, but his fast-track form is still fine; #9 OVERDELIVER: Has a record that looks far better if you toss the Grade 2 Wood Memorial. He cuts back in distance and draws favorably here, but this seems a hair shorter than he wants to go.

Mitole
Firenze Fire
Imperial Hint

#1 MITOLE: May be the best older male in training right now and looms large in the Grade 1 A.G. Vanderbilt. The rail draw isn’t ideal, and there’s other early speed signed on, but anything close to his best would make him a formidable foe; #4 FIRENZE FIRE: Was fifth behind Mitole in the Grade 1 Met Mile, but shortens up and may get plenty of pace to run at. That convergence of factors may make him a contender at a square price; #3 IMPERIAL HINT: Looks to defend his title in this race, but may have lost a step from his 2018 form. He makes his first start since a third-place finish in Dubai here, and he’ll need to have his running shoes on.

R10

Ya Primo
Channel Maker
Arklow

#3 YA PRIMO: Makes his American debut for Chad Brown after establishing himself as one of the top horses in his native Chile. This doesn’t seem like a strong race for the level, and foreign invaders getting Lasix for the first time often take big steps forward; #5 CHANNEL MAKER: Ran fourth behind Bricks and Mortar, America’s top older male on turf, in the Grade 1 Manhattan and returns to defend his title in the Bowling Green. He likes this turf course, and there may be enough pace signed on to set up for him; #1 ARKLOW: Is a consistent sort that generally runs the same race every time out. He was a neck behind Channel Maker in the Man o’ War and is another that would benefit from a fast pace.

R11

War of Will
Tacitus
Global Campaign

#6 WAR OF WILL: Ran like a tired horse in the Belmont, which was his sixth race in less than five months. He’s been freshened up for this event and could sit an ideal stalking trip, which would allow him to channel the form he showed winning the Preakness; #5 TACITUS: Was a good second in the Belmont and has won at this distance and two-turn route configuration before. He may want more early speed, and this isn’t the goal, but if he’s ready to run, he’ll be tough; #4 GLOBAL CAMPAIGN: Wired the field in the Grade 2 Peter Pan, which included eventual Belmont winner Sir Winston. He’s certainly got talent; the question is, does he want two turns?

R12

Surge Pricing
My Macho
Letterman

#5 SURGE PRICING: Won his debut and was fourth against winners last time out at Belmont. He adds blinkers and takes a big drop in class back to the claiming ranks, and he looms large in the Saturday finale; #4 MY MACHO: Raced wide last time out at Laurel and is another dropping in for a tag. This is his second start off the bench, and he’s won going two turns on turf before; #12 LETTERMAN: Faded to eighth in his first start against winners last time out, but won impressively two back at Aqueduct. That was a two-turn race, and he returns to that configuration here.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/28/18

Posted on July 26, 2018 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $887.50

The monsoon that hit Saratoga Friday afternoon came at a much-needed time for yours truly. The track had turned into one that was heavily tilted to horses with early speed, and given that I submit picks about 36 hours before each day’s first post, chances are any bias that pops up will work against me. Heavy rain like that, though, tends to reset the track, and a fair track definitely benefits me given the way I handicap and submit my content.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: I got washed out for the second straight day, as both of the horses I used in the second race scratched.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll have two main plays on the card. Assuming the second race stays on turf (no cinch given Friday’s weather and the overnight forecast), I’ll put $5 to win and place on #2 CALIFORNIA SWING, my top longshot of the day. Additionally, I’ll play a cold $20 double beginning in the seventh race that singles both #3 ENGAGE and #4 IMPERIAL HINT.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Friday’s Results: 3 for 9
Meet Results (to date): 19 for 68

Best Bet: Engage, Race 7
Longshot: California Swing, Race 2

Carter Cat
Party With Friends
Halladay

#11 CARTER CAT: Improved at second asking and was beaten just a half-length in an off-the-turf event at Churchill Downs. He’s bred up and down for turf, and merits a long look if he draws in off the AE list; #6 PARTY WITH FRIENDS: Has several flashy works on the tab, as well as a high turf Tomlinson rating (314). He’s a full to a four-time winner, and the bottom side of his pedigree is incredibly strong; #5 HALLADAY: Is bred in the purple and goes out for Todd Pletcher, whose debut runners must always be respected. If there’s a concern here, it’s that he’s bred to go much further than 5 1/2 furlongs.

St. Louie Guy (MTO)
California Swing
Nileator

#2 CALIFORNIA SWING: Could benefit from the likely race shape, one that should set things up for a closer. He was a good second at this level downstate, and he won over this turf course last season; #11 NILEATOR: Was claimed out of his last race by Eddie Kenneally, whose numbers with new acquisitions are very strong. He’ll need to work out a trip from the far outside, but his tactical speed should help; #3 WESTERN RESERVE: May be bet pretty heavily on the drop in class, but he hasn’t won in more than a year and there’s plenty of other speed signed on. On most of my tickets, I’ll try to beat him. DIRT SELECTIONS: ST. LOUIE GUY, DRIVEN BY THUNDER, NILEATOR.

Consensus Thinking
Gray Nile
Air On Fire

#5 CONSENSUS THINKING: Drops in for a tag after two solid efforts downstate. He’s been working well up here, and he looms large on the drop in class for powerhouse connections; #3 GRAY NILE: Went way too far last time out, so it’s easy to toss that race. His efforts two and three back against similar-level foes at Churchill were fine, and it helps that the two-back winner repeated at next asking; #7 AIR ON FIRE: Has been gelded since his last start, which came at Prairie Meadows against straight maidens. His best race gives him a shot, but he’s had lots of chances, and it’s tough to trust him at a fairly short price.

Fair Regis
Bowl of Kisses
Trouble for Skylar

#4 FAIR REGIS: Has run seven strong races in a row and comes in off a sharp win at Belmont at this level. Falcone has enjoyed great success with a smaller barn, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., chooses to ride this filly when he almost certainly had other options; #6 BOWL OF KISSES: Has won two in a row, including prevailing in a head-bob over my top pick last time out. There’s other early speed in here, though, so she may have to work a bit harder early on than she’s accustomed to; #2 TROUBLE FOR SKYLAR: Wants no part of turf and comes back to her preferred surface. She romped in her debut here last July, and I think she has a big shot to outrun her odds.

Aurelius Maximus
Coast
Mucho

#3 AURELIUS MAXIMUS: Is one of the best-bred 2-year-olds on the grounds. He’s by Pioneerof the Nile, and his dam, second dam, and third dam were all graded stakes winners. He’s a half to Grade 2 winner Chief Havoc and has been working lights-out ahead of his debut; #10 COAST: Is a well-bred first-time starter from the Todd Pletcher barn that cost $500,000 at auction earlier this year. His dam was a Grade 2 winner, and he’s a half to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Balandeen; #11 MUCHO: Was second to Whiskey Echo last month, and that one came back to run third in the Grade 3 Sanford. Bill Mott trainees sometimes need a race to get going, and he could show improvement if he draws in off the AE list.

Honorable Treasure (MTO)
Lunaire
Uncle Gio

#11 LUNAIRE: Gets my top pick in a race where half the field could conceivably win. This one hasn’t won in a while, but exits some pretty tough races and could get some speed to rate behind beneath Javier Castellano; #4 UNCLE GIO: Has run six solid races in a row, and has only finished worse than third once in that stretch. He cuts back to a friendlier distance, and John Velazquez keeps the mount; #9 PENALTY: Has run two solid turf races in a row and has a pedigree that suggests he wants this two-turn route. He’s a bit one-paced, but that could work to his advantage here given the added distance. DIRT SELECTIONS: HONORABLE TREASURE, CHRIS AND DAVE, DR. SHANE.

Engage
Promises Fulfilled
World of Trouble

#3 ENGAGE: Beat a number of these rivals when second in the Grade 2 Woody Stephens, and he should once again be able to watch as a sizzling pace is set in front of him. He’s this race’s lone true closer, and he could come flying late; #2 PROMISES FULFILLED: Led into the stretch of the Woody Stephens before yielding and finishing third behind two closers. His one-turn races are strong, and he’s certainly got plenty of early zip; #6 WORLD OF TROUBLE: Looked like a future star when he smashed stakes foes at Tampa three back, but his last two races have been a bit of a disappointment. However, the Servis barn has been going great, so he can’t be completely dismissed.

Imperial Hint
Switzerland
Warrior’s Club

#4 IMPERIAL HINT: Has seven wins in his last eight starts if you toss the Grade 2 Churchill Downs (which was contested in an absolute quagmire). He’s one of the best sprinters in the country, and he’s been working very well at Parx leading up to this event; #1 SWITZERLAND: Has come to hand for Steve Asmussen, having won four in a row. His win in Maryland was sharp, but he wasn’t exactly flattered when runner-up Long Haul Bay didn’t fire earlier this week; #3 WARRIOR’S CLUB: Looks much better if you toss his races at longer than seven furlongs. He may not be as talented as the top two, but this is his preferred trip, and he’s run well at Saratoga in the past.

Hi Happy
Sadler’s Joy
Money Multiplier

#7 HI HAPPY: Seems like one of the few potential speed horses in a wide-open renewal of the Grade 2 Bowling Green. He’s one of many exiting the Grade 1 Manhattan, but unlike a few of them, he’s proven at this level given the wins two and three back; #6 SADLER’S JOY: Won last year’s Grade 1 Sword Dancer here and nearly added another such score in the Manhattan, when he was second beaten just a neck. He’s a consistent sort, but the question is, will he get enough of a pace to rate behind?; #8 MONEY MULTIPLIER: Was second behind stablemate Funtastic in the Grade 1 United Nations after winning the Grade 2 Monmouth two back. His best effort would give him a big shot, but one has to wonder if his favorite track is at the shore, not the Spa.

R10

Flameaway
Vino Rosso
Tenfold

#1 FLAMEAWAY: Has danced a lot of dances this year and run well against high-level competition. He’s got plenty of speed, his recent workouts have been sensational, and Jose Ortiz signing on can’t be ignored; #5 VINO ROSSO: Took a brave run at Justify in the Belmont before running out of gas and settling for fourth. His Wood Memorial win three back was good, but it’s worth noting he lost to Flameaway twice at Tampa earlier this year; #2 TENFOLD: May be favored given his third-place finish in the Preakness two back. Having said that, he’s still eligible for allowance conditions, and the Preakness being contested amidst a storm of epic proportions doesn’t give me confidence that the effort in question can be repeated.

R11

Reversethedecision
Frippery
Cash Out

#6 REVERSETHEDECISION: Was a fast-closing second in a stakes race at Monmouth last time out, and that day’s winner has since come back to win again. There’s speed signed on here, and this filly could finish off a big day for trainer Chad Brown; #4 FRIPPERY: Made a big middle move last time out at Delaware Park and couldn’t sustain it, settling for second in a minor stakes race. Arnaud Delacour means business when he ships here, and Joel Rosario’s presence can’t be ignored; #11 CASH OUT: Gets necessary class relief after spending much of her career in graded stakes races. She’s hit the board in two of them, and she’s another that could be moving well late in a wide-open finale.