2025 Kentucky Derby Analysis Now Available (LOTS OF FREE CONTENT!)

The calendar has turned to May, and with that comes two of the most exciting days in horse racing. The Kentucky Oaks is on Friday, the Kentucky Derby is on Saturday, and I’m using this page as a one-stop shop for all of my content.

BETTING STRATEGIES AND SPOT PLAYS

My day job is for an affiliate marketing company called Raketech. As part of that, I’ve put together betting strategies on $50 budgets for those two races, plus a handful of spot plays throughout each undercard.

You can check those out on Winners and Whiners here, and supporting that avenue supports me as I try to create content you all will enjoy/take something from. In addition, you can use the promo code CHAMP20 for 20% off any individual item.

Furthermore, earlier this week, I sat down with my friend Detroit Lenny, who’s done an incredible job with our video production. We did a “beginner’s guide to the Derby” of sorts, and you can check that out here.

DRANK’N CHAMPAGNE PREVIEWS DERBY WEEK

My weekly podcast on On the Wrong Lead fulfills an annual tradition. Here, Josh Rodriguez and I go through Friday and Saturday at Churchill and offer our best bets, live longshots, and bold predictions for each day of racing. We’re aligned on a big one for Friday, and that’s one you won’t want to miss!

24 HOURS OF CONTENT???

Matthew DeSantis of NYRA Bets fame is a friend of mine, and he’s running a 24-hour handicapping stream beginning at 12 pm Eastern on Friday to support the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance. This is a different iteration of the idea Trust The Prophets did for a Breeders’ Cup, where they also had a rotating cast of handicappers and Twitter personalities go through the night.

I’m planning to stop by in the Pacific time zone’s evening hours, which’ll likely be when the East Coast folks are headed to bed. Whoever winds up getting on this, though, it’s going to be a blast. You can check it out below or on the NYRA Bets YouTube channel.

RADIO IN UPSTATE NEW YORK

Finally, I’ll also be on the radio airwaves in a few New York markets. Those in Saratoga may know I do some work with my friends Tom Goslowski and Jeff Levack, and my hit will air during their show on FOX Sports 980 Thursday.

In addition, I’ll hop on ESPN Radio Ithaca Friday with my good friend/wedding groomsman who still needs to get his tux handled, Nick Karski. That’ll air during his afternoon drive show and be archived on the station’s website (I’ll update these with archive links if/when I have them!).

No, Kentucky Derby 150 Doesn’t Need An Asterisk

This past weekend, Nysos won the Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita, and he did so very impressively. In the process, he moved his career record to a perfect 3-for-3. That effort, combined with an underwhelming showing from Fierceness in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park, made many think he’s the top 3-year-old in the country.

Nysos, though, won’t run in the Kentucky Derby. He’s trained by Bob Baffert, who also conditions several other top-class 3-year-olds. Baffert’s Kentucky Derby ban has been extended through this year’s renewal, and unlike the past two seasons, owners connected with those horses decided to keep their runners in the same barn.

Outcry has, predictably, been pretty harsh, and not just from the usual suspects on horse racing Twitter. Several journalists I respect a great deal have chimed in, claiming that this year’s Kentucky Derby has a stain on it from the lack of Bob Baffert trainees (several of which would be considered logical contenders).

As you can probably guess from the headline, I don’t agree with that sentiment. However, my thoughts on this are similar to the ones I had about the Alix Earle situation at the Pegasus World Cup: Many people have this very, very wrong.

I’m going to throw my readers a curveball here with this next sentence (at least in the eyes of some who will see this article): I don’t love the way Baffert was suspended an additional year. The precedent of tacking on additional time after a verdict was handed down, and as a punishment is being served, isn’t a good one.

The long-running legal battle between Churchill Downs and the Baffert/Amr Zedan camp undoubtedly played a role in this. It was ugly, and I think most of the racing world breathed a sigh of relief when Baffert and Zedan stopped pursuing the case earlier this year. I understand CDI doing what it feels is best for business, but it’s also logical to think this stacks the deck against someone who may have a legitimate case of some sort down the line.

Acting as though one person or one entity is above the game is misleading, at best. On the other hand, though…acting as though one person or one entity is above the game is misleading, at best. Much like Churchill Downs, Bob Baffert and his owners aren’t more important than the rest of the industry.

Owners of horses like Nysos had a choice. They could’ve gone the routes made popular in 2022 and 2023 and sent their Derby prospects to the barns of Tim Yakteen, Sean McCarthy, Rodolphe Brisset, Brittany Russell, or other trainers in the game. More than one trainer can condition top-tier animals. Those owners chose to go another route, and that’s their right. I won’t criticize them for doing what they feel is correct. They pay the bills, not me.

What I also won’t do, though, is act as though those people are victims. Baffert was blackballed from the Run for the Roses, not the owners. Just because those connections aren’t pointing those horses to the Kentucky Derby doesn’t mean I’m going to devalue that race, and I don’t think anyone else should, either.

Barring a flip-flop by the owners of horses like Nysos, Muth, and others, those thoroughbreds won’t be in the starting gate. That’s not ideal, and neither is acting as though everything’s fine and the efforts of those horses don’t exist (as Churchill’s doing). However, it’s not the first time horses at or near the head of the class won’t go postward on the first Saturday in May.

Horses get knocked off the Derby trail every single season. Injuries derail the chances of major players frequently. Most notably, Forte, who would’ve been favored a year ago, scratched the morning of the race. Life Is Good and Shared Belief sure would’ve made the 2021 and 2014 Derbies more interesting, too. They didn’t run, either, and both years, fans and handicappers more than made due on the first Saturday in May.

The difference, of course, is that Nysos isn’t injured. As far as we can tell, he bounced out of the Lewis well. We’ll probably see him in either the San Felipe or the Santa Anita Derby, depending on what Baffert decides to do with his other 3-year-olds, and wherever he winds up, he’ll almost certainly be a very heavy favorite (and justifiably so).

Yes, the Kentucky Derby would be better with Nysos in it. Yes, the Preakness sure looks like the Bob Baffert Invitational, where that barn will undoubtedly be loaded and ready to feast upon horses being wheeled back in two weeks and other “new shooters” that almost certainly don’t stack up well in the form. Saying otherwise is naive and acts as though a major issue doesn’t exist (which, to be fair, is in line with horse racing’s approach on other topics that it’s kicked the can down the road on and can no longer just ignore).

However, there’s a lot of blame to go around for the way this wound up. Giving the race a physical or mental asterisk solves nothing. I’ll never agree with those acting as though the Derby is somehow just another 3-year-old race because one trainer, and owners who made conscious choices to stick with that trainer, can’t participate.

(As an aside, an acquaintance of mine has said they’re taking screenshots of folks insisting they don’t care, won’t bet on the race, and making other bold statements. I look forward to the “then and now” posts made when those people inevitably cave.)

It gets old saying “everyone’s wrong.” I genuinely believe most people mean well. I don’t think anyone’s happy horse racing is in the shape it’s in right now. These conflicts, though, solve absolutely nothing and make unifying for meaningful change beyond one big day much, much harder.

Here’s hoping that stops, and does so sooner rather than later.

2023 Kentucky Derby Recap: From Chaos Comes Clarity

Want to read a Kentucky Derby recap that has very little to do with the race? If so, I’ve got just the ticket.

(Editor’s note: Uh oh.)

(Writer’s retort: Come on. It’s me. You knew this was going to be weird.)

I did a ton of Kentucky Derby content leading up to Saturday. Catena Media allowed me to get my hands dirty on a bunch of sites within the company’s portfolio, and I’m grateful to them for that. I love my job, and I very much enjoy collaborating with some of the best co-workers (and friends) one can ask for.

I did a ton outside of my day job, too. You may have heard me on a few podcasts, and if you were in Ithaca or Albany (two of my former places of residence), you may have heard me on local sports radio affiliates, too. I woke up on Saturday morning bright and early, fully prepared to compile everything into one nice, neat package.

And then Forte scratched, and everything came crashing down.

Not literally, of course. Life goes on. However, with that scratch, almost every piece of content I conceived, produced, edited, and/or published the prior four or five days became irrelevant.

You may have seen a few social media posts from me in that vein that hinted I wasn’t in a great mood. As I told a few family members and close friends, I was absolutely devastated, and not because Forte wasn’t running.

There’s no worse feeling than seeing a lot of hard work fueled by passion go down the drain. I spent the entire week touting Forte enthusiastically, so everything that enthusiasm touched was instantly rendered obsolete.

(Quick note: If the vets determined Forte shouldn’t have run, then he shouldn’t have run. It’s truly as simple as that, so please don’t put words in my mouth.)

I audibled reasonably well the morning of the race. I put out a revised betting strategy, and if you acted on it, you came out ahead. Mage was my third choice, but a win bet at overlaid odds proved profitable. My exactas were toast, so I didn’t get rich, but I’ve had far, far worse Derbies.

After the race, a tweet of mine went around pretty quickly. I said Forte would have stomped that group, and I sincerely believe that. He’s beaten Mage twice already, and I don’t see a reason a healthy version of him couldn’t have done so again this weekend. I hope we’ll get a chance to see him sooner rather than later, ideally at an overlaid price.

The interactions that followed, though, gave me a lot of insight into my feelings and motivations. For as much bluster, pompousness, and ego my detractors (and there are many, for reasons passing understanding…) will claim I have, I genuinely enjoy going back and forth with about 90 to 95 percent of horse racing Twitter. I’ll talk shop in any setting anyone wants, and more often than not, I’ll genuinely enjoy it.

I was miserable most of Derby Day, and not because a horse I was excited to bet wasn’t going to run. It was because I put a lot of my spare energy into creating content for horseplayers to digest and enjoy, and I do it because there’s no better feeling than using my knowledge and insight to help someone else make money.

It’s why I keep doing all of this stuff on top of a day job I very much enjoy. I’m not getting rich off of these passion projects, and that’s not the point. The things I do in horse racing are because I want to do them, and because, over the years, there’s enough evidence to support the idea that I know what I’m talking about (you might have heard about Lord Miles…).

Saratoga’s in two months. I’ll be back in the pages of The Pink Sheet and online on this very site with full-card analysis, selections, and bankroll plays. Before that is the Alameda County Fair in Pleasanton. I’ll be in Europe for the first week of that meet, but most weekends, I’ll be co-hosting handicapping seminars just outside the grandstand that preview each day of racing action at the Northern California fair track.

In the meantime, you can keep checking this site and my social media platforms. I’m an easy guy to find. If you’ve got any ideas for content, or just something you’d like to see, use the “contact” function. I see everything that comes through.

To those that enjoy what I do, thank you. You’re a large part of why I’m still able to do it.

Updates on life, the Kentucky Derby, and one of horse racing’s biggest issues

It’s been quite a while since I’ve written something here. There are a bunch of reasons for that, and a bunch of reasons why I’m putting this together.

My “new” job

As you probably know, I’m back in the gambling industry on a full-time basis. A bit more than three years after The Daily Racing Form saw me as surplus to requirements, I’ve latched on at Catena Media as a Content Manager. They’re an affiliate marketing company in the space, and I’m having a blast wearing many hats.

Since coming on board in January, I’ve assumed a leadership role with several sites in the company’s “play” network. Each state gets a site, and the ones in my bucket are California, Florida, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Ohio. I’m managing a fantastic team and working with people who are insanely passionate and spectacular at what they do. It’s been a fun few months, and it feels good to be back.

In addition to managing those sites, I’ve also started producing plenty of horse racing content for Playfecta, the company’s resident racing page. This includes betting strategies and looks at Kentucky Derby prep races.

Catena’s also been wonderful about allowing me to freelance for non-competitors. You may have seen my Derby Bubble column for the fine folks at The Paulick Report, and, predictably, the one thing I insisted on prior to coming aboard was an ability to continue my role with The Pink Sheet each summer for as long as they’ll have me. They were fantastic about this, so my summer Saratoga coverage remains unchanged.

If I may be allowed a quick detour into “wrestling promo” mode: This means that your reigning, defending, undisputed Saratoga all-media handicapping champion will be back this July to defend his title. If you don’t like it, play along for 40 days, publish your picks, and beat me. Contrary to what some may like to believe, if you do that, I’ll be the first in line to shake your hand, say “good game,” and mean it.

All of my Kentucky Derby stuff

I figured it would be handy to have a one-stop shop with links to all of my content focused on Kentucky Derby Week. The below list includes written articles, podcasts, and videos, and if you’re curious about how I see things over the next few days at Churchill Downs, these are what you’ll want to dive into.

FRIDAY

SATURDAY

Horse racing has a problem

Earlier this week, the plight of a young woman in racing got my attention. Mary Cage chronicled what went into an excruciating decision to leave the game she loved. Her explanation was raw and honest, and what some interpreted as “millennial softness” was, in actuality, a much-needed dose of humanity.

I related to this right away. When I feel something, I feel it more intensely than most. That’s a quality horse racing doesn’t have much use for. My career almost ended before it really got started due to a situation where that came into play (we’re getting closer to when I can feel comfortable telling that story publicly, but we’re not there yet). It played a role in why I left TVG, despite 99.9% of people I worked with/for being outstanding professionals and people (I spent most of an afternoon with several of them last weekend at Golden Gate Fields!).

When Mary talked about the issues she faced, it hit home. My challenges were different, but rooted in a lot of the same concepts. I bent over backwards to help a variety of companies and people. I wore many hats, I worked long hours, and I was ultimately deemed expendable by a machine that seems to take pride in chewing up and spitting out those who care about maintaining it.

Predictably, while Mary got plenty of support from some of the industry’s best people, she was dragged by some of the worst. Not everyone is going to agree on everything, and that’s fine. Some of the attacks got personal, though, with insinuations made that she lacked a proper work ethic or other qualities commenters deemed necessary for success in racing.

At the same time this was going on, a company came out with the first of several “explosive videos” designed to lobby for causes and people in racing. Predictably, the name “Bob Baffert” was dropped four seconds into the video, which aimed to pit Baffert’s camp of loyalists against Churchill Downs and its backers.

This is going to sound harsh, and perhaps the firm has better ideas up its sleeve moving forward. Having said that, after seeing the nonsense Mary had to deal with (as well as stories of other young people in racing being forced to question the longevity of their careers)…I really don’t care about what happens to Bob Baffert anymore.

Racing is the only billion-dollar industry I’ve discovered where passion to make things better, and ideas that require short-term sacrifice for long-term gains across the board, are frequently frowned upon. People like Mary shouldn’t be chased out of the industry. They want to work, and they want to make things better. Instead of deciding they’re expendable, give them all the work they want, and get out of the way while they do it.

We can go on and on about things like Baffert, trainers, breeding, and any number of issues. Contrary to the belief of some of the trolls out there, I welcome respectful disagreement on all topics (it’s the “respectful” part that’s often a bridge too far, I’ve found).

Here’s a much more important thought to ponder, though: If we’re turning away people who actively want to have long, sustained careers in racing, what chance do we have to attract those who are indifferent about the sport? Furthermore, what chance do we have to change the minds of those who have decided they don’t like it?

Look up at the amount of content I’ve produced for two days of racing, on top of my normal, 40-hour job. In addition, I’m writing this at almost 11 pm Pacific time on Thursday, May 5. Tomorrow is Kentucky Oaks Day, with a 7:30 am first post. I’ll be up for all 13 races, from maiden claimers to the main event, and I’ll be ready to do it again for 14 more races Saturday, including the sport’s biggest one.

All of this is my contribution to the game. I’m a handicapper and content creator. I write and produce things for people to enjoy, with the hopes that some of it helps people make money. It’s why I enjoyed last year’s Kentucky Derby so much. My show (which included a special appearance from my father) gave out $30 in tickets that returned more than $1,000. As hokey as it sounds, buying him and my girlfriend a nice dinner after the races is something I’ll remember for the rest of my life. If my analysis and insight helped give someone else a moment like that, even better.

I love horse racing.

There are times I wish horse racing loved itself.

Medina Spirit, One Handicapper’s Peaks and Valleys, and Horse Racing’s Next Steps

It was 8:38 am when I got the text message.

I had just gotten out of bed and was getting ready for work. My phone vibrated with news that Medina Spirit had died following a five-furlong drill at Santa Anita.

I almost went back to bed.

I’m not a vet, I’m not an expert on the structure of the American thoroughbred, and I’m not here to bash certain people within the game just because it’s the fun, trendy thing to do. I’m a fan, handicapper, and content producer that’s had, simultaneously, the best and most chaotic year of my life betting on and talking about horses.

Medina Spirit is a big reason for that. Sent away at 13-1 in the Kentucky Derby, he was left alone on the lead when Rock Your World didn’t break. Mandaloun, Hot Rod Charlie, and Essential Quality came up to challenge him, but Medina Spirit refused to yield, got home, and triggered a celebration in my Northern California apartment that was probably audible up and down the West Coast.

We know the rest of the story. He tested positive for a banned substance, and a lengthy legal battle has outlived its subject. After his death, we still don’t know if we can call Medina Spirit the official Kentucky Derby winner. He won a few races, was ridden for second behind Knicks Go in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and may very well win Champion 3-Year-Old Male honors at the Eclipse Awards.

On its own, Medina Spirit’s death would be bad enough. A high-profile Bob Baffert trainee dying of an apparent heart attack after a workout, while the subject of a lengthy drug investigation, is reason enough to cringe. However, it’s the latest blow to a sport that’s been crippled lately by one public relations disaster after another over the past few years.

Santa Anita was put through the ringer in 2019, when a series of breakdowns caused an avalanche of bad press (including an astoundingly tone-deaf one-liner on the ABC show “Black-ish”) and forced significant changes to the racing product. I worked at Santa Anita for a year and a half. It’s a cathedral with fantastic people steering the ship and making the engine go. They’re back racing down the hill, and the surface is far safer than it was nearly three years ago.

Good luck, however, telling that to people whose exposure to Santa Anita comes in the form of blurbs on the ESPN “Bottom Line” talking about breakdowns and deaths rather than consuming the product on a regular basis.

Medina Spirit’s win in the Kentucky Derby triggered legal activity from all corners of the racing world. After news of the positive test made national headlines, some handicappers felt cheated enough to file a lawsuit against Churchill Downs, demanding that bettors who were beaten by a drugged horse be properly reimbursed.

Speaking of bettors, there’s no other way to explain what happened on the first day of the 2021 Breeders’ Cup than three simple words: They got hosed. Modern Games was let through a starting gate prior to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. In a sea of confusion, he was scratched, then un-scratched, then announced as running for purse money only. The talented Charles Appleby runner won as much the best, because of course he did, and the reaction from the Del Mar grandstand was a thunderous chorus of boos, one that I’ve never heard at a track before and don’t plan on ever hearing again.

As a sport, where are we on controlling the narrative that reaches novices and those who have never been to the track before? Where are we on a response that reassures the racing fanbase that the racetrack is still a fun place to go, and that one’s gambling dollar is more respected there than at a blackjack table, a slot machine, or a daily fantasy sports provider? How is it possible that a sport with many incredibly wealthy, smart people at the top level can be playing defense this much?

– – – – –

I can’t address those questions without a look at where I’m at. I don’t work in horse racing full-time anymore. I’ve been out of the business for three years, ever since I was a casualty of budget cuts at The Daily Racing Form. To some, that’s a very good thing, and to others, I’m no different from other ignorant washouts who like to toot their own horn.

Those people don’t know me. By and large, they know the silly guy who posts professional wrestling memes and fires up Ric Flair’s promo from the 1992 Royal Rumble when he wins. News flash: If any of you, and I mean ANY OF YOU, take that stuff seriously and think that’s a true indication of how much I think I matter, re-evaluate your life choices and check your rear end for a stick.

If you took this seriously…really???

What people other than my family and closest friends don’t see is the time I spend, on top of a full-time job, creating written and video content with the intensity of someone who still does it on a full-time basis. I’m probably the only guy left who attacks the Saratoga all-media handicapping race the way writers and horseplayers did 20 years ago, and I make no apologies for that. When kids my age were reading Roald Dahl, I was reading Russ Harris. Putting out a quality product matters to me, and that’s not going to change for as long as I do it.

My main rush, though, comes from helping the once-a-year track-goers cash tickets and enjoy themselves at the track. I had a friend tell me once that I cared more about people knowing I was right than actually being right. Heck yes, I do, and it’s because if people know I was right and they bet what I liked, they made money! What rush is better than that?

I said all of that, and went on what seemed like a few meandering tangents, to bring it back to one point: If racing continues to shoot itself in the foot with no plans to convince people it’s fun to come to the track, there may not be once-a-year track-goers anymore.

– – – – –

I still love this game. I love writing about it, I love going on-camera to talk about it, I love reading the form to find an edge, I love betting that edge, and I love being right. I’ll answer questions from people about the sport all day long, if I can, and any sort of ambassadorship I can provide pales in comparison to what horse racing has given me.

That said, I’ve never been confrontational when I meet people who don’t like (or, in some cases, actively hate) horse racing. It’s not going to be everyone’s thing, and that’s okay. Where we find trouble is when we ask ourselves this dangerous, two-part question: How many people have been turned off by issues in racing the past few years, and what can we do to bring them back?

Remember what I said about how much I think I matter? If you think I’m an egotistical maniac, strap in for this one: For all of my flaws (and there are people who will gladly take the time to list all of them), I’m REMARKABLY self-aware. If I took my annual handle (it’s none of your business, but it’s not totally insignificant) and put that money and my content creation efforts into any other relevant field, I know I wouldn’t be missed by racing at large. That isn’t a knock on myself. It’s just a fact.

The same can be said for people I know who have bet considerably more than me and vowed that they’re done with the sport. On their own, one’s individual handle going elsewhere isn’t going to break the game or send shockwaves through the industry. However, if the whales leave, and the medium-sized fish leave, and the small fish leave without laying eggs (in this hypothetical, the eggs represent people introduced to the game and given reasons to be excited about it), what’s left? In that instance, horse racing suddenly turns into yacht racing, where rich people compete for each other’s money and nobody in any other tax bracket cares.

Any changes made are going to take time to implement. Expecting an overnight revolution when the status quo hasn’t been seriously threatened on a national level for decades is irrational, and anyone taking the opportunity to demand such a movement should know that. However, those in the game who think everything is fine and that the sport can police itself are also misguided (not to add yet another tangent, but if the sport could police itself, why did it take the FBI to run Jorge Navarro and Jason Servis out of the industry?).

There need to be constructive, inclusive conversations about how to fix the issues in our game. Women, minorities, and those that haven’t traditionally had prominent seats at that table need to be involved. Bettors and owners need to be respected in equal measure, because the sport doesn’t work without both revenue streams. The words, “but that’s the way we’ve always done it,” should be cause for a public flogging, and anyone with conflicts of interest should be required to leave the room when a close-to-home topic is being discussed.

I don’t know how we get fans back who say they’re done with the game and mean it. We don’t know the official Kentucky Derby winner. We don’t know for sure which trainers are dirty and which ones are clean. We don’t have a concrete plan in place that ensures a Modern Games fiasco doesn’t happen again. Shoot, going back to the 2019 Kentucky Derby, we still don’t have one uniform answer to the question, “what is a foul that merits disqualification?”

What I do know is that doing nothing won’t work.

I’m not asking racing to solve all of those problems instantly. However, here’s a simple prayer from someone who gives a damn about the sport surviving and thriving at all levels: Can’t we at least get the car out of “neutral?”