Kentucky Derby

Horse Racing Needed Golden Tempo. Now What?

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Many years ago, my first bosses in turf writing, Joe and Sean Clancy, advised us Saratoga Special interns, “root for the story.” It’s a mantra that’s been in my head since Saturday afternoon, when Golden Tempo shot from last to first to win the 2026 Kentucky Derby.

In this case, the story pretty much writes itself. Golden Tempo is trained by Cherie DeVaux, making her the first female conditioner to saddle a Kentucky Derby winner. Jose Ortiz, wearing the famous black and red silks of Phipps Stable, was the winning jockey, and his winning move outkicked that of brother Irad and the highly-regarded Renegade (who nearly overcame a troubled trip from the rail draw).

For various reasons, horse racing Twitter erupted with a rare sentiment: Positivity. It wasn’t just Golden Tempo backers who were thrilled at the outcome. Fans of the sport got to witness something special, and even losing bettors (self included) couldn’t be upset seeing DeVaux celebrate with her family and friends as she worked her way to the Derby winner’s circle. That, in turn, led to something even more rare: I saw losing handicappers hat-tipping, with regularity, in the direction of the sharp bettors who endorsed a victor that paid $48.24 for a $2 win wager.

Even Mike Repole, the owner of the hard-luck runner-up, couldn’t be too upset. In a video put online by Sean Collins of Blood-Horse, he can be seen bear-hugging Irad Ortiz, Jr., and telling him, among other things, “that’s why you’re the best rider in the country.” Repole’s shtick can be hard to deal with sometimes, but in that moment, he felt…different. He didn’t feel like an outspoken “commissioner” butting heads with others. He felt like someone who, even in defeat, had been moved by what he saw.

Being a horse racing fan tends to be a lonely experience, and for good reason. As a pari-mutuel bettor, you’re putting your money into the pools against wagers from everyone else looking at the race. Tempers can run hot, especially on big days. Against all odds, when it came to the biggest race on the calendar, that didn’t happen. Instead of being something for people to scream at each other about, the Kentucky Derby served as a reminder of why most of us got into the game.

Let me be clear: Saturday at Churchill Downs wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows. Two races before the Derby, Japanese invader T O Ellis was greater than 10-1 as the field went into the gate for the Churchill Downs. Mid-race, he dropped all the way down to 5-1, and sure enough, the money proved smart. This was a reflection of a growing problem at racetracks across the country, one explained to the masses in a terrific article written by Yahoo’s Dan Wolken.

(Side note: I’ve been around the racing game long enough to say, with some confidence, that if some racing publications had written that piece, there would be significant repercussions for it. As I’m fond of saying, in horse racing, the problem is never the problem, it’s people talking about the problem.)

Horse racing has its issues, and they’ve been growing impossible to ignore. Horse racing Twitter, never an easy audience to fully satisfy in the best of times, has grown restless, and there are valid points to be made. We don’t breed as many horses, the ones we do breed don’t run as much, horse racing isn’t the only gambling game in town anymore, and activity by CAW groups is, for the most part, being met with a collective shrug from industry decision-makers (some of whom are actively benefiting from said activity on a race-by-race basis). Because of this, the day-to-day product has, at times, suffered, and from an outsider’s perspective, it sure doesn’t seem like much is being done to fix issues affecting every aspect of the industry.

Despite all this, though, there we all were Saturday afternoon, watching Cherie DeVaux be engulfed by family and friends after Golden Tempo completed his circling of the 2026 Kentucky Derby field. I said it at the time and I still mean it: I don’t think horse racing Twitter was ever more positive than after that race. It was a beautiful thing to witness, and it’s a reminder of both what we’re capable of as people and what this game is capable of bringing out of us.

The question is, how do we take what we saw Saturday and use it for the benefit of the industry? At a time where the sport has seemed to actively seek out negative momentum, there’s potential for forward movement. Let’s capitalize on it. Let’s remember what this game can do and how capable we are of being decent to one another.

Golden Tempo winning the roses didn’t fix everything. Acting like it did is naive, at best. However, to paraphrase a quote from one of my fictional spirit animals, Toby Zeigler from “The West Wing,” in a battle between our game’s demons and our better angels, for the first time in a long while, I think we just might have ourselves a fair fight.

You know, provided we don’t blow it.

2026 Kentucky Derby Selections and Spot Plays

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

It’s Kentucky Derby Day, and I’ve got free Kentucky Derby selections and spot plays for Saturday’s card at Churchill Downs.

Yes, the Derby is its own beast, but with 13 other races on tap, there are plenty of opportunities to take stands and cash tickets. That’s what we’ll attempt to do here, and with so much to go through, I won’t waste any more of your time. Let’s get to it!

Race #2: #8 Taptastic (3-1 ML)

He won’t be much of a price, but I like this Steve Asmussen trainee quite a bit. After breaking his maiden in the mud at Oaklawn, he got thrown into the deep end in the Arkansas Derby and didn’t disgrace himself. He was third that day (behind Renegade and Silent Tactic), and it wouldn’t have been too shocking to see him show up in a race like the Pat Day Mile (more on that one later).

Instead, he shows up in a first-level allowance, where he’ll be able to run with Lasix again. He also gets the riding services of Irad Ortiz, Jr., which is a significant move up, and his local works have been just fine. I think he’s very much the one to beat, and while I think we’re more likely to get 3/2 than his 3-1 morning line, he hits me as a single in any of your early multi-race exotics wagers.

Race #6 (Knicks Go): #9 Scotland (20-1 ML)

This was a price I profiled in my recent piece for ABR, and this race revolves around #2 Dragoon Guard. On one hand, it feels like he’s the main speed, and he’s run speed figures in the past that would put him on top fairly easily. On the other, he’s won just one of his last seven starts, lost to several of these runners in those races, and hits me as difficult to trust.

For that reason, I’ll take a shot with Scotland, who likely needed his 2026 debut after a four-month layoff. He ran several sharp races a season ago, when he earned some big checks (including a fairly-close second to Book ‘em Danno in the Forego at Saratoga). He’s shown he’s got the ability to win a race like this; the question is, can he get back to that mid-2025 form?

It’s not a small question to answer, for sure. If he’s just not that kind of horse anymore, that’ll be apparent. However, I’d much rather take that kind of flyer than back a short pice that’s difficult to trust. Here’s hoping this Bill Mott trainee is ready to go second off the bench.

Race #8 (G2 Pat Day Mile): #1 Englishman (3-1 ML)

If you watched this week’s “Drank’n Champagne,” this is no secret (and if you haven’t watched it yet, it’s right there below the introduction!). I think the Pat Day Mile may have the best 3-year-old male on the grounds, and that includes the runners set to go postward in Saturday’s main event.

Englishman was a runaway winner of his debut in September over this Churchill surface. Something clearly went wrong, because we didn’t see him in the afternoon for six months. He came back at Fair Grounds and couldn’t have been much more impressive, coasting home to win by a New Orleans city block and affirming his potential.

His connections had every right to try to rush him to a Kentucky Derby prep. They didn’t do that. This race has been the goal all along, and he’s been working lights-out ahead of this event. I know Bob Baffert trainee #6 Crude Velocity has potential, but I think Englishman is a freak in the making. If he’s anywhere close to the 3-1 morning line price, I’ll be thrilled.

Race #9 (G1 American Turf): #4 Stark Contrast (4-1 ML)

I give the connections of Stark Contrast credit. A few years ago, this owner/trainer tandem had Endlessly, a promising turf/synthetic runner who had never run on dirt. They ran him in the Kentucky Derby, and he hasn’t won since. This year, Stark Contrast had enough points to make the field, but was re-routed here, and while the odds board says it’s a wide-open event, he’s a “lone A” for me.

Simply put, Stark Contrast just hasn’t done much wrong. He’s 3-for-4 on turf, with his lone loss being a second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf behind much-the-best winner Gstaad. Last time out, he was second to a nice horse again in the Jeff Ruby, where he made a middle move and got outkicked by Fulleffort.

This is absolutely what he wants to do, and the slight cutback in distance should be welcome news. Furthermore, the two others that hit me as interesting, #12 Remember Mamba and #14 Final Score, drew terrible, far-outside posts. Stark Contrast has a lot to like here, and I think the morning line price would represent a significant overlay.

Race #12 (G1 Kentucky Derby): #9 The Puma (10-1 ML) and #14 Potente (20-1 ML)

We may not get the 10-1 morning line price on The Puma, but even if he’s in the neighborhood of 7-1, I don’t think that’s a bad bet. He’s gotten significantly better with distance and experience, and he may still present some value compared to #6 Commandment (who nosed him in the Florida Derby) and #18 Further Ado (who he beat in the Tampa Bay Derby). His pedigree says 10 furlongs is well within his scope, and I think he’s ready to fire a big shot.

Potente, meanwhile, hasn’t run huge figures in California, but this Bob Baffert trainee hits me as live. It feels like Baffert was trying to figure something out in the Santa Anita Derby, where Potente dueled for the lead through solid fractions before fading to second. I think his preferred trip is of the “stalk and pounce” variety, and he should get several targets to run at early. His recent five-furlong drill at Churchill was fantastic, and when a Baffert horse works like that, it’s often a clue the Hall of Famer has one ready to go.

2025 Kentucky Derby Analysis Now Available (LOTS OF FREE CONTENT!)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

The calendar has turned to May, and with that comes two of the most exciting days in horse racing. The Kentucky Oaks is on Friday, the Kentucky Derby is on Saturday, and I’m using this page as a one-stop shop for all of my content.

BETTING STRATEGIES AND SPOT PLAYS

My day job is for an affiliate marketing company called Raketech. As part of that, I’ve put together betting strategies on $50 budgets for those two races, plus a handful of spot plays throughout each undercard.

You can check those out on Winners and Whiners here, and supporting that avenue supports me as I try to create content you all will enjoy/take something from. In addition, you can use the promo code CHAMP20 for 20% off any individual item.

Furthermore, earlier this week, I sat down with my friend Detroit Lenny, who’s done an incredible job with our video production. We did a “beginner’s guide to the Derby” of sorts, and you can check that out here.

DRANK’N CHAMPAGNE PREVIEWS DERBY WEEK

My weekly podcast on On the Wrong Lead fulfills an annual tradition. Here, Josh Rodriguez and I go through Friday and Saturday at Churchill and offer our best bets, live longshots, and bold predictions for each day of racing. We’re aligned on a big one for Friday, and that’s one you won’t want to miss!

24 HOURS OF CONTENT???

Matthew DeSantis of NYRA Bets fame is a friend of mine, and he’s running a 24-hour handicapping stream beginning at 12 pm Eastern on Friday to support the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance. This is a different iteration of the idea Trust The Prophets did for a Breeders’ Cup, where they also had a rotating cast of handicappers and Twitter personalities go through the night.

I’m planning to stop by in the Pacific time zone’s evening hours, which’ll likely be when the East Coast folks are headed to bed. Whoever winds up getting on this, though, it’s going to be a blast. You can check it out below or on the NYRA Bets YouTube channel.

RADIO IN UPSTATE NEW YORK

Finally, I’ll also be on the radio airwaves in a few New York markets. Those in Saratoga may know I do some work with my friends Tom Goslowski and Jeff Levack, and my hit will air during their show on FOX Sports 980 Thursday.

In addition, I’ll hop on ESPN Radio Ithaca Friday with my good friend/wedding groomsman who still needs to get his tux handled, Nick Karski. That’ll air during his afternoon drive show and be archived on the station’s website (I’ll update these with archive links if/when I have them!).

No, Kentucky Derby 150 Doesn’t Need An Asterisk

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

This past weekend, Nysos won the Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita, and he did so very impressively. In the process, he moved his career record to a perfect 3-for-3. That effort, combined with an underwhelming showing from Fierceness in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park, made many think he’s the top 3-year-old in the country.

Nysos, though, won’t run in the Kentucky Derby. He’s trained by Bob Baffert, who also conditions several other top-class 3-year-olds. Baffert’s Kentucky Derby ban has been extended through this year’s renewal, and unlike the past two seasons, owners connected with those horses decided to keep their runners in the same barn.

Outcry has, predictably, been pretty harsh, and not just from the usual suspects on horse racing Twitter. Several journalists I respect a great deal have chimed in, claiming that this year’s Kentucky Derby has a stain on it from the lack of Bob Baffert trainees (several of which would be considered logical contenders).

As you can probably guess from the headline, I don’t agree with that sentiment. However, my thoughts on this are similar to the ones I had about the Alix Earle situation at the Pegasus World Cup: Many people have this very, very wrong.

I’m going to throw my readers a curveball here with this next sentence (at least in the eyes of some who will see this article): I don’t love the way Baffert was suspended an additional year. The precedent of tacking on additional time after a verdict was handed down, and as a punishment is being served, isn’t a good one.

The long-running legal battle between Churchill Downs and the Baffert/Amr Zedan camp undoubtedly played a role in this. It was ugly, and I think most of the racing world breathed a sigh of relief when Baffert and Zedan stopped pursuing the case earlier this year. I understand CDI doing what it feels is best for business, but it’s also logical to think this stacks the deck against someone who may have a legitimate case of some sort down the line.

Acting as though one person or one entity is above the game is misleading, at best. On the other hand, though…acting as though one person or one entity is above the game is misleading, at best. Much like Churchill Downs, Bob Baffert and his owners aren’t more important than the rest of the industry.

Owners of horses like Nysos had a choice. They could’ve gone the routes made popular in 2022 and 2023 and sent their Derby prospects to the barns of Tim Yakteen, Sean McCarthy, Rodolphe Brisset, Brittany Russell, or other trainers in the game. More than one trainer can condition top-tier animals. Those owners chose to go another route, and that’s their right. I won’t criticize them for doing what they feel is correct. They pay the bills, not me.

What I also won’t do, though, is act as though those people are victims. Baffert was blackballed from the Run for the Roses, not the owners. Just because those connections aren’t pointing those horses to the Kentucky Derby doesn’t mean I’m going to devalue that race, and I don’t think anyone else should, either.

Barring a flip-flop by the owners of horses like Nysos, Muth, and others, those thoroughbreds won’t be in the starting gate. That’s not ideal, and neither is acting as though everything’s fine and the efforts of those horses don’t exist (as Churchill’s doing). However, it’s not the first time horses at or near the head of the class won’t go postward on the first Saturday in May.

Horses get knocked off the Derby trail every single season. Injuries derail the chances of major players frequently. Most notably, Forte, who would’ve been favored a year ago, scratched the morning of the race. Life Is Good and Shared Belief sure would’ve made the 2021 and 2014 Derbies more interesting, too. They didn’t run, either, and both years, fans and handicappers more than made due on the first Saturday in May.

The difference, of course, is that Nysos isn’t injured. As far as we can tell, he bounced out of the Lewis well. We’ll probably see him in either the San Felipe or the Santa Anita Derby, depending on what Baffert decides to do with his other 3-year-olds, and wherever he winds up, he’ll almost certainly be a very heavy favorite (and justifiably so).

Yes, the Kentucky Derby would be better with Nysos in it. Yes, the Preakness sure looks like the Bob Baffert Invitational, where that barn will undoubtedly be loaded and ready to feast upon horses being wheeled back in two weeks and other “new shooters” that almost certainly don’t stack up well in the form. Saying otherwise is naive and acts as though a major issue doesn’t exist (which, to be fair, is in line with horse racing’s approach on other topics that it’s kicked the can down the road on and can no longer just ignore).

However, there’s a lot of blame to go around for the way this wound up. Giving the race a physical or mental asterisk solves nothing. I’ll never agree with those acting as though the Derby is somehow just another 3-year-old race because one trainer, and owners who made conscious choices to stick with that trainer, can’t participate.

(As an aside, an acquaintance of mine has said they’re taking screenshots of folks insisting they don’t care, won’t bet on the race, and making other bold statements. I look forward to the “then and now” posts made when those people inevitably cave.)

It gets old saying “everyone’s wrong.” I genuinely believe most people mean well. I don’t think anyone’s happy horse racing is in the shape it’s in right now. These conflicts, though, solve absolutely nothing and make unifying for meaningful change beyond one big day much, much harder.

Here’s hoping that stops, and does so sooner rather than later.

2023 Kentucky Derby Recap: From Chaos Comes Clarity

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Want to read a Kentucky Derby recap that has very little to do with the race? If so, I’ve got just the ticket.

(Editor’s note: Uh oh.)

(Writer’s retort: Come on. It’s me. You knew this was going to be weird.)

I did a ton of Kentucky Derby content leading up to Saturday. Catena Media allowed me to get my hands dirty on a bunch of sites within the company’s portfolio, and I’m grateful to them for that. I love my job, and I very much enjoy collaborating with some of the best co-workers (and friends) one can ask for.

I did a ton outside of my day job, too. You may have heard me on a few podcasts, and if you were in Ithaca or Albany (two of my former places of residence), you may have heard me on local sports radio affiliates, too. I woke up on Saturday morning bright and early, fully prepared to compile everything into one nice, neat package.

And then Forte scratched, and everything came crashing down.

Not literally, of course. Life goes on. However, with that scratch, almost every piece of content I conceived, produced, edited, and/or published the prior four or five days became irrelevant.

You may have seen a few social media posts from me in that vein that hinted I wasn’t in a great mood. As I told a few family members and close friends, I was absolutely devastated, and not because Forte wasn’t running.

There’s no worse feeling than seeing a lot of hard work fueled by passion go down the drain. I spent the entire week touting Forte enthusiastically, so everything that enthusiasm touched was instantly rendered obsolete.

(Quick note: If the vets determined Forte shouldn’t have run, then he shouldn’t have run. It’s truly as simple as that, so please don’t put words in my mouth.)

I audibled reasonably well the morning of the race. I put out a revised betting strategy, and if you acted on it, you came out ahead. Mage was my third choice, but a win bet at overlaid odds proved profitable. My exactas were toast, so I didn’t get rich, but I’ve had far, far worse Derbies.

After the race, a tweet of mine went around pretty quickly. I said Forte would have stomped that group, and I sincerely believe that. He’s beaten Mage twice already, and I don’t see a reason a healthy version of him couldn’t have done so again this weekend. I hope we’ll get a chance to see him sooner rather than later, ideally at an overlaid price.

The interactions that followed, though, gave me a lot of insight into my feelings and motivations. For as much bluster, pompousness, and ego my detractors (and there are many, for reasons passing understanding…) will claim I have, I genuinely enjoy going back and forth with about 90 to 95 percent of horse racing Twitter. I’ll talk shop in any setting anyone wants, and more often than not, I’ll genuinely enjoy it.

I was miserable most of Derby Day, and not because a horse I was excited to bet wasn’t going to run. It was because I put a lot of my spare energy into creating content for horseplayers to digest and enjoy, and I do it because there’s no better feeling than using my knowledge and insight to help someone else make money.

It’s why I keep doing all of this stuff on top of a day job I very much enjoy. I’m not getting rich off of these passion projects, and that’s not the point. The things I do in horse racing are because I want to do them, and because, over the years, there’s enough evidence to support the idea that I know what I’m talking about (you might have heard about Lord Miles…).

Saratoga’s in two months. I’ll be back in the pages of The Pink Sheet and online on this very site with full-card analysis, selections, and bankroll plays. Before that is the Alameda County Fair in Pleasanton. I’ll be in Europe for the first week of that meet, but most weekends, I’ll be co-hosting handicapping seminars just outside the grandstand that preview each day of racing action at the Northern California fair track.

In the meantime, you can keep checking this site and my social media platforms. I’m an easy guy to find. If you’ve got any ideas for content, or just something you’d like to see, use the “contact” function. I see everything that comes through.

To those that enjoy what I do, thank you. You’re a large part of why I’m still able to do it.