Pick Five

Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Gulfstream Park (12/16/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Greetings from the after party of the 2017 Beemie Awards! I’ve beaten most of the crowd out of the venue, including Vic Stauffer and Andy Asaro, who may still be trading punches on the stage after reluctantly posing together with the Best Fight trophy. While I’m happy for the winners, I’m not over getting snubbed for the Mike Joyce Award for Handicapping Excellence and Bravery given the summer I had at Saratoga.

Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, Saturday’s card at Gulfstream Park is a good one. It’s filled with graded stakes races, and the early races make the preliminary Pick Five very challenging. I’ve got a few multi-race tickets lined up, and I’ll dive into them next!

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 2,7,11
R2: 1,6,11
R3: 1,7
R4: 4,6,8,10,11,12
R5: 1

108 Bets, $54

I try to keep the cost of my tickets down to around a $40 maximum, but I wanted as much coverage as I could feasibly have. My only single comes on the end, and it’ll be a popular one. If this is too expensive, and you’d like to cut my ticket down to an early Pick Four that starts in the second race, it’s currently an $18 investment (potentially less, but we’ll get to that).

I’m going against a morning line favorite right away. #3 LIGHTHOUSE SOUND is the tepid 7/2 choice, but he hasn’t won in a while and has floundered at this level at Presque Isle. I understand that those races are on synthetic tracks, but I’ll go elsewhere. One of my three is a big price. #11 VIGAS hasn’t run well at Gulfstream Park West and will need to negotiate a trip, but his races at this route from earlier this summer were pretty sharp. He’s 15-1 on the morning line, and I think he’s a must-use.

The second is a maiden claimer, and this is another race where one of the horses I’m using could be a price. My top pick is #11 LIL BAY CORVETTE, who’s a square 12-1 on the morning line. His trainer is off to a tremendous start to this meet, and the most recent workout was encouraging. She may not need to be much to beat this group, and I need to have her on the ticket.

I was able to narrow things down a bit in the third. #1 WEEZA GONE GRAY was nearly a single for me, as he gets a cushy inside draw and should be the main speed in the race. However, I also needed to use #7 LITTLE BALTAR, who takes a major class drop and has run several sharp races at this route against much better company.

For me, the fourth race was by far the trickiest race of the entire sequence. #13 UNCLE JUNIOR was my top pick, but she didn’t draw in off the AE list. As a result, I’m going six-deep, and hopefully, I’ve gone deep enough. If you’ve got deeper pockets, this is probably your “ALL” race.

I’m finishing things off by singling #1 CURLIN’S APPROVAL in the Grade 3 Rampart. She returns to her favorite track, and that should make a big difference. The distance isn’t ideal, but her standard race should put her in the winner’s circle, and if that happens, we could be in line for a nice score.

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #7

R7: 1,2,5
R8: 5
R9: 3
R10: 1,2,4,7,9
R11: 2,9,11

45 Bets, $22.50

I usually put together a late Pick Four ticket, but my late Pick Four is pretty affordable. If you want to play my suggested ticket in that sequence, it’s only a $7.50 investment thanks to two singles, and if it hits, it’ll probably be pretty chalky. With that in mind, I’ll suggest a Pick Five.

It starts in the seventh, the Grade 3 Sugar Swirl. #1 DEAREST figures to be favored, and for good reason, but I can’t single her given that she’s making her first start since July. I’ll also use #2 MISS HOLLYWOOD (making her first start for Mark Casse) and #5 TRUE ROMANCE (who’s run several strong races against good competition and gets Paco Lopez).

My cold double starts in the eighth, and I think #5 ON LEAVE will be very tough to beat in the Grade 3 My Charmer. She generally runs the same high-quality race every time out, and there are no monsters lining up against her here. She was a solid third in the Grade 2 Goldikova last time out, and those were faster horses than what she’ll go against in this spot.

The ninth is the Grade 3 Harlan’s Holiday, and this is another spot where I think the favorite will be tough. #3 DESTIN won the Grade 2 Marathon last time out, and he ran into some strong horses last time out in the Grade 1 Clark Handicap. He gets significant class relief, and while I respect the likes of #5 PAGE MCKENNEY and #7 FEAR THE COWBOY, Destin’s best race would mean others would have to improve to beat him.

I’m spreading in the 10th, the Grade 3 Tropical Turf. I’ll use five of the nine horses signed on, and that includes likely favorite #7 BLACKTYPE. I don’t think he’s a cinch, but he’s probably the horse to beat. The horse to bet, however, may be #1 TOWER OF TEXAS, who could get a very fast pace in front of him. If he brings his Woodbine form with him, he could pose a real threat when the field turns for home.

The Saturday finale is a maiden special weight for 2-year-olds going long on the turf. Todd Pletcher saddles #9 HYNDFORD, and that first-time starter will likely be favored. However, I’ll also throw in #2 FORGOTTEN COAST (who has solid two-turn form) and #11 DR. BOMBAY (who’s bred to be a good one and has been working well, but will have to negotiate a trip from the far outside). Hopefully, we can beat a favorite in one of the “spread” races and manage a reasonable return on our investment.

Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Gulfstream Park, Los Alamitos (12/9/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Before we get into my analysis of Saturday’s action at Gulfstream and Los Alamitos, there are a few things that we need to talk about. Firstly, it’s been a tough week for everyone in horse racing. The images and videos that came out of San Luis Rey were positively gut-wrenching, and the work that many have done to assist the humans and horses in need is as admirable as it gets. If you want to assist, Santa Anita and Del Mar have teamed up to raise funds, and you can contribute here.

Secondly, and more relevant to my analysis, you’ll notice there’s only an early Pick Five writeup for Gulfstream’s card. I love that they’re holding a card to highlight the best horses in the Caribbean, especially given the destruction wreaked upon those islands by this past year’s hurricanes. However, due to the relative lack of data, I can’t put forth any sort of tickets on those races.

On to the analysis!

GULFSTREAM PARK

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 3,4
R2: 5,6,8,9,10,11
R3: 4
R4: 1,4,8,9
R5: 1,9

96 Bets, $48

Each race in this sequence is a stakes race, and some of the fields are large enough to where this could really pay out. We’ll start off with the Hut Hut for 2-year-old fillies, and I’m two-deep. #3 MY FAVORITE GIFT won by a city block in her debut, while #4 BERNADETTA is bred to go long and beat a good horse (Blonde Bomber) in her unveiling.

I’m spreading in the Wait a While. I understand that #6 STAINLESS may be favored, but her best race came over a very soft, slow turf course at Keeneland, and this isn’t a field comprised of pushovers. Of note, #10 SUBTLE STEP did something few Shug McGaughey trainees can pull off. She won at first asking, and that race’s second-place finisher has since come back to win as well.

My single comes in the third. This is the Buffalo Man, and I’m staking my ticket on #4 DIAMOND OOPS. He won twice over this surface before a lackluster effort in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special, where he stumbled at the start and probably never had a chance. He’s worked well since then, and I’m not crazy about the likely favorite, #5 MOJOVATION. He ran a big race in his debut, but that came over a very quirky Saratoga track, and he hasn’t fired the same kind of shot since then.

I’m going four-deep in the fourth, the House Party. My top pick is #9 TAKE CHARGE PAULA, who’s yet to run a bad race going one turn and gets a cushy outside draw, but it’s tough to say if she’ll like Gulfstream or not. I want some coverage, and hopefully, I’ve gone deep enough.

We’ll be alive to two horses in the fifth, the Smooth Air. I’m pretty sure Todd Pletcher wins this race, as I’ve used two of his three trainees entered in this race. #1 COLTANDMISSISSIPPI bounced back from a horrible run in the Sapling to romp at Gulfstream Park West, while #9 BAL HARBOUR won the Sapling and sports a win over the Gulfstream main track.

LOS ALAMITOS

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 2,3
R2: ALL
R3: 3,5
R4: 2,4
R5: 4

48 Bets, $24

We’ve got a rarity here, as this Pick Five includes two Grade 1 races. We start off with an optional claimer, and I’m using both horses not entered for the claiming price. #3 INNYMINNIEMINEYMOE will probably be favored, but I actually prefer #2 LA CHEPIS, who was claimed last time out by Keith Desormeaux and is protected in her first start for that outfit.

I’m buying the second race, a starter allowance where the six horses involved have combined for four wins in 45 starts this calendar year. I hate betting horses that show aversions to winning, but one such horse WILL win this race. Since I’ve got the budget to use them all, that’s what I’m doing.

The third race is the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity, and I’m using both Bob Baffert trainees. Of the pair, I prefer #3 SOLOMINI, who may be the bigger price despite his second-place finish in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He’s only been beaten by Bolt d’Oro and Good Magic to this point, and anything above 2-1 strikes me as an overlay.

The fourth is the Grade 1 Starlet, and I’m against morning line favorite #3 DREAM TREE. She does not seem like a two-turn horse to me, and I think we may be able to get a bit of value going against her. #4 WAR HEROINE is my top pick following a sharp debut at Del Mar, while #2 PIEDI BIANCHI exits the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, where she was beaten just two and a half lengths for second money.

My single figures to be a popular one. #4 HOTSY DOTSY is 0-for-14, but she’s run two good races for the level since being claimed by Hector Palma this past summer. She showed improved tactical speed last time out, and given the relative lack of early zip signed on, she could sit a dream trip here. She’s 7/5 on the morning line, and hopefully, she finishes off a profitable ticket for us.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 4,7
R7: 3,5,6
R8: 1,5,7,10
R9: 2,7,9

72 Bets, $36

I don’t have a single on this ticket, and I found this sequence tricky given the fairly large fields signed on. For that reason, if you hit, you’ll probably be in line for a solid score.

I’m using the two likely favorites to start. #4 FABRICATION returns to his favorite track and gets Tyler Baze, while #7 BIG HUNK takes a big drop in class for a trainer whose horses tend to improve at second asking.

I’m hoping things get a bit more chaotic in the second leg, as I’m not using the 5/2 morning line favorite. #4 HELLUVA CHOICE ships in from the east coast, and we have absolutely no idea how he’ll run against California horses, so I’ll try to beat him. I’m particularly intrigued by #3 ALWAYS NEVER, who ran a very nice race last time out at night over this Los Al track. He sports a recent bullet workout and will likely be the one this field has to run down turning for home.

I thought the eighth was the toughest race in the sequence. #1 PRIME ISSUE will likely be favored, and he’ll certainly be the one they have to run down, but his last two have been bad enough to where I want some coverage alongside him. In particular, while #10 BOLSTER is fast, I don’t think that one needs the lead. He made a middle move last time before flattening out to be third, and that day’s winner has since come back to win. 6-1 is a square price, and I’ll happily take those odds if I can get them.

I’m three-deep in the finale, and the horses I’m using are included with the thought that this race is very likely to collapse. Many horses entered here need the lead in order to win, so I used three that should have something left late. #2 GROUND RULES drops out of a Grade 2 race, while #7 CITY STEEL is a consistent stalking-type and #9 INCENSED has shown an ability to sit behind horses in the past (albeit on turf).

Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park (12/2/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Saturday is a big day at both Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park. Aqueduct houses a card with four stakes races, including the Grade 1 Cigar Mile, while Gulfstream Park opens its championship meet with the Claiming Crown program. Both slates are incredibly challenging, and if you hit even one multi-race ticket, chances are you’ll walk away with a profit. Here’s how I’ll attack both cards.

AQUEDUCT

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 2,3,4,5
R2: 4,5,10
R3: 1
R4: 6,7,10,12
R5: 1,3

96 Bets, $48

I generally don’t like going much over $40 with my tickets, but I felt a need to with both of my stabs at Aqueduct. Even with a single in the middle leg of the Pick Five, it’s not a cheap ticket, but hopefully, we can get this home.

I’m four-deep in the opening leg, and for good reason. #5 BLACK SEA will probably be favored, but he probably wants to go longer, and it’s a bit alarming that he’s in for a claiming tag. I’ll use him, but I want other coverage. Of note, #3 WAR BOND is one of only a few in here that wants this specific distance. His win two back was solid, and he’s attracted Jose Ortiz.

I’m using the three logical horses in the second. Many of these horses haven’t won in a while, so I’ll take one horse second off a layoff (#4 LEAH’S DREAM), a second that makes her second start off the claim for a good barn (#5 FAIR REGIS), and a class-dropper that should appreciate the relief (#10 ANNA RAE).

My single comes in the third, and while it’s partially out of necessity, there’s also a benefit to it. I think both parts of the David Jacobson entry (#1 DOCS LEGACY and #1A ANY QUESTIONS) can win, and I need a single somewhere to keep the cost of my ticket down, so here we go.

I thought the fourth race was fascinating. It’s a turf sprint for state-bred maidens, and while some horses that figure to take money make sense, I also had to include a 15-1 shot. That’s #6 LUNE LAKE, who didn’t break well in her debut for a barn whose horses usually need a race or two to get going. In addition, she’s bred to like the turf, as her second dam, Nicole’s Dream, was a freakish turf sprinter who won multiple stakes races going short on grass. I think she’s a must-use, especially at her likely price.

I’ll hope to finish this off with one of the two favorites in the fifth. #1 FOLLOW THE SIGNS was claimed by a good barn (and from a good barn) following a romp last time out, while #3 MINSKY MOMENT showed an affinity for the turf when a sharp second last time out at Belmont.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #7

R7: 5,9,11,12
R8: 1,3,5
R9: 3,5
R10: 2,5,6,8

96 Bets, $48

We open with a wide-open 2-year-old maiden race. I’m four-deep, and I easily could have gone much deeper. My reluctant top pick is #11 SCATBACK, who ran well enough in two turf sprints at Saratoga earlier this year and gets Javier Castellano, but this race could unfold any number of ways. If you can afford to go deeper, you may want to do that.

The second leg is the Grade 2 Demoiselle. It’s sometimes tough to decipher which 2-year-olds want to go nine furlongs, but I think the morning line man got this one right. #1 DAISY and #3 WONDER GADOT have both looked talented and will be bet, but I also had to use #5 INDY UNION, who’s bred up and down to go long and relished the stretchout at Belmont when romping over maidens in October. She’s by Union Rags and out of an A.P. Indy mare, so two turns should be right up her alley.

I’m two-deep in the Grade 2 Remsen. #3 AVERY ISLAND may be favored and has talent, but if #5 CATHOLIC BOY can transfer his turf form to dirt, he’ll be the one to beat. He encountered some trouble when fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, and while he probably wasn’t beating Mendelssohn with a clean trip, he could’ve conceivably been second. This is a good spot to take a shot on dirt, and his races have shown that the distance won’t be his undoing.

The Cigar Mile is the main event, and it doubles as the payoff leg of the sequence. I came into the race thinking the two main contenders were #6 SHARP AZTECA and #8 PRACTICAL JOKE, but upon further review, I had to use two others as well. #2 SEYMOURDINI had a nightmare trip in the Grade 3 Bold Ruler and should improve second off the layoff, and #5 AMERICANIZE has not finished worse than second in eight races he’s finished. That one was an impressive winner of the Damascus Stakes, and when Simon Callaghan gets a horse on the right track, they tend to stay there. At 12-1, I need him on my ticket.

GULFSTREAM PARK

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 3,4,5
R2: 6,7,10
R3: 6
R4: 2,8,11,12
R5: 1,5

72 Bets, $36

And there we go with the antics (hi, Pete!). This Pick Five struck me as the hardest sequence to decipher among both cards I looked at, and if there’s any consolation, it’s that Gulfstream has a 4-of-5 payout in this sequence.

The meet opener is a turf race for maidens, and I’m going three-deep. My top pick is #5 REALLY PROUD, who took a step forward at second asking last time out. She showed tactical speed and has worked well since then, so more improvement could be in the cards.

I’m also three-deep in the second leg. #6 MENDED ships east and is going for her 10th consecutive win. Her two recent dirt races were just fine, but 2-1 seems awfully short in such a big field. I’ll also use #7 DELUSIONAL K K, who’s won two of her last three, and #10 AMALUNA, who does her best running here and was impressive at this route two back.

I’ve got a “separator single” in the third leg. I know I’m supposed to like the Todd Pletcher tandem of #3 HYNDFORD and #9 ANIMAL KINGSTON, but if one was the goods, why are two entered in the same spot? I’m taking a swing with a 10-1 first-time starter that’s bred to be talented. #6 THE ROBERT has been working well at Churchill Downs and is a half-brother to four winners. Trainer Eddie Kenneally can win with first-time starters, and I’m not overly impressed with the horses that have run before. If this horse wins, we’ll be alive to a nice, nice score.

I’m four-deep in the fourth, a race with plenty of early speed signed on. While speed is usually good at Gulfstream, I had to throw in 15-1 shot #11 EXPRESS JET just in case the race falls apart. Toss the races contested over a wet track, and this closer looks much, much better.

If we’re alive into the fifth, we’ll be two-deep there. #1 BLUE BAHIA is ultra-consistent and has never been better, while #5 EILA loves Gulfstream and returns to her favorite track. Her recent form hasn’t been great, but Gulfstream is a far different turf course than Aqueduct, and she could relish her familiar stomping grounds.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #8

R8: 4,7,12
R9: 5,9,10,11,12
R10: 4
R11: 5,6,7,11

60 Bets, $30

The late Pick Four kicks off with the Rapid Transit. #4 SHAFT OF LIGHT won this race by daylight last time out, and he merits respect. However, #7 MANHATTAN MISCHIEF has plenty of early speed and could keep him company early. I’m using both speed horses, and, in the event the race breaks down, I’m also using #12 COXSWAIN, a 20-1 shot that loves this track and should be flying late.

The ninth is a wide-open turf race, and I’m five-deep. #9 STARSHIP JUBILEE has been racing against much better at Woodbine and could win, but Woodbine form sometimes doesn’t translate elsewhere. She won here a few times earlier in the year, but this isn’t an easy field, and if she doesn’t win, I don’t know who does, so I went deep.

I took a completely different approach in the 10th. #4 BLACK TIDE has one way of going. He’ll go to the front, open up, and lead for as long as he can. This race doesn’t have much other quality speed signed on, so he could sit a picture-perfect trip on a track that often plays kindly to early speed. As such, he’s a single for me.

I’ll go four-deep to finish things off. #6 GIGANTIC BREEZE won a Grade 2 at Woodbine last time out, and if his form translates to dirt, he’ll definitely be the one to beat. However, I’m also using a few prices, and if one of them gets home, we’ll get paid off in a big way.

Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Aqueduct and Del Mar (11/18/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

I really like the Saturday cards at Aqueduct and Del Mar. I find the multi-race sequences at both tracks very challenging, and if you hit, I think you’ll be rewarded handsomely.

One quick note: Next week, I’ll be in Las Vegas for Thanksgiving/my 29th birthday, and I’ll be writing a few articles from there for this site with racing and sports bets, as well as any amusing anecdotes I may have from my travels. If you’re looking for stuff that’s sordid, that won’t be my speed. I’m happily taken, so I don’t do clubs, I don’t do pools, and I certainly do not interact with the people outside of casinos whipping cards around. I’m an old-school degenerate who believes in things like the blackjack grandfather clause, all-you-can-eat buffets (especially when someone else is paying; hi, Dad!), meeting random groups of outgoing people in sports books, and (best of all) backdoor covers. If any or all of that intrigues you, chances are you’ll like what I’ll be posting.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at Aqueduct and Del Mar, and try to get some seed money for the trip!

– – – – –

AQUEDUCT

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 1,2,4,5
R2: 6
R3: 4
R4: ALL
R5: 6,9

80 Bets, $40

We start off the Saturday card at Aqueduct with a tricky claiming event. I’m going four-deep, and I hope that’s enough. I’m most intrigued by #4 HARDLY MATE, who came from way back last time out to win going away in her first start with Lasix. Yes, it took a class drop to get her into the winner’s circle, but she ran into at least two next-out winners two back, and there’s reason to believe she’s getting better with experience.

I’ve got two straight singles in the second and third legs. #6 GANGBUSTERS ships up to New York for the second race, and I like her a lot. She’s raced very wide in each of her last two outings, and it’s not like this is a stellar field. #5 LADY BY CHOICE is the 7/5 favorite, but she goes to a lower-percentage barn and drops down in class. I think that’s a favorite you should try to beat, and that’s what I’m trying to do.

My third-leg single will be a popular one. #4 SCHIVARELLI makes his first start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez following a race where he had a strange trip. At one point, he was six-wide in a seven-horse field, and he was still beaten less than two lengths. His usual race would make him very difficult to beat, and given my approach to the fourth race, I had to take another stand somewhere.

That fourth race, for my money, is the toughest race on Saturday’s Aqueduct program. It’s an incredibly competitive turf event, and I didn’t have a clue. Thanks to my two singles, I can buy the race, so if we get through my cold double, we’ll be one leg away from cashing.

The fifth race is a turf sprint for New York-breds, and I went two-deep to finish things out. #9 MISSION COMMAND took to the turf well last time out, running away with a claiming race at Belmont. Javier Castellano rides back, and I’m using him, but my top pick is actually #6 PSYCHIC ENERGY, who probably found seven furlongs a bit too long last time out. His four races before that effort were all quite good, and in those races, he beat several horses that also show up in this spot. Hopefully, he can win and get this ticket home at a bit of a price.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 4,5,6,9,11
R7: 6,7
R8: 5,9
R9: 4,10,12,13

80 Bets, $40

I did not think this was an easy sequence. The bookends of this sequence could go any number of different ways, and if you’ve got deeper pockets or a mid-sequence single, the “ALL” button may be your friend.

The sixth is a maiden event on the turf, and a number of these exit the same few races. #9 UNLEVERAGED will likely be favored in his debut for Chad Brown, but I thought there were others in here with big chances. Of note, #11 WICKED TRICK ran really well at bonkers odds in his debut at Kentucky Downs and was the victim of a surface switch last time out in the Grade 3 Bourbon at Keeneland. He’s 10-1 on the morning line, and that seems like way too big a price.

I’m using the two favorites in the two middle legs. I prefer #6 SCARLY CHARLY over #7 WILL DID IT in the seventh, largely due to the class drop and the switch to Joel Rosario. Meanwhile, in the eighth (the Artie Schiller), I think the only entrant that can beat #9 DELTA PRINCE is #5 BLACKTYPE, who seeks his third consecutive victory.

That brings us to the finale, which boasts a field of 14 maidens. #13 MISS HOT STONES seems logical on paper, but she was beaten at 1/2 at this level last time out. Maybe she’s just better than these, and I’m using her, but I can’t back her with any enthusiasm. The first-time starter that most intrigues me is #12 QUEENOFEVERYTHING, who’s been working very well at Saratoga and attracts Jose Ortiz. If Miss Hot Stones does not fire, it’s anyone’s race, and the works lead me to believe this daughter of Pomeroy could have some talent.

– – – – –

DEL MAR

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 1,2,3,9
R2: ALL
R3: 3
R4: 8
R5: 2,3

64 Bets, $32

Right off the bat, I’m going against a likely favorite. That’s #4 LITTLE JUANITO, who’s made a career out of collecting minor checks. He’s had chances, he’s taken money, and at this point, I’m going to try to beat him. The three horses to his inside will all get some play, but #9 DRAMATIC VICTORY is my price play at 20-1. She runs against the boys here and showed speed in her debut down the hill. She faded, but Kent Desormeaux did not persevere with her when he knew she was beaten. Here, she gets top gate rider Edwin Maldonado, and she may be the one they’ve got to catch turning for home.

If we get the likely favorite beat in the opener, we’ll be two-fifths of the way home. I found the second race fascinating, and I needed maximum coverage. None of the eight entrants would be a shock, so I’m sitting back and hoping for a price.

Like at Aqueduct, I’ve got a cold double on my Pick Five ticket. My first single may be the shortest-priced favorite of the day. That’s #3 HELEN’S TIGER, who drops in for a tag and has back form. Anything close to her race two back would make her incredibly difficult to beat, and even her race three back would probably be good enough. If you can forgive the last-out clunker, which may have just been a bounce, she looks tough.

The fourth is a grass grab bag, and I’m taking a stand with #8 JERSEY’S HEAT. He improved considerably at second asking, and despite some trouble negotiating the dirt crossing, he rallied for third and earned a 67 Beyer Speed Figure. A repeat is probably good enough to win in this spot, which doesn’t feature many other horses with proven turf form. If he doesn’t win, I don’t know who does.

The payoff leg is the Saturday feature at Del Mar. It’s the $100,000 Desi Arnaz, and I’m taking a stand against another likely favorite. #6 DREAM TREE was all-out at 4/5 last time out, and while she could improve, the Bob Baffert barn is ice-cold this meet, and I’ll look elsewhere. #2 MS BAD BEHAVIOR chased two top-class fillies in her first two starts before breaking through last time out, and in that race, she overcame some trouble, which is encouraging. I’ll also use #3 MIDNIGHT BISOU, who nearly caught Dream Tree in her debut and attracts Rafael Bejarano.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 1,3,6,7,9
R7: 4,5
R8: 3,4,8,9
R9: 1,8

80 Bets, $40

Yep, another Pick Four ticket with no singles. I think you need lots of coverage, and nowhere is that more evident than in the sixth. This is a wide-open turf sprint, and I’ve gone five-deep. I’m most intrigued by #7 BOWIE, who almost definitely needed her last race off a long layoff and figures to be the main speed in this spot. She could easily take a leap forward for Richard Mandella, and if she does, she could start off the sequence at a price.

I’ll use the two favorites in the seventh, a confusing starter allowance with many horses that have not won in a while. #4 PARTY HOSTESS just missed last time out and runs for red-hot trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, while #5 GO ON MARY has significant back class and lost all chance at the break last time out.

We go back to the turf for the eighth race, and while #4 RADIO SILENCE may be the buzz horse, I don’t think he’s unbeatable. There isn’t much quality speed signed on, and that could bode well for #3 FLY TO MARS, who cruised home in his turf debut and could get first run at the tiring pace-setters around the far turn.

Finally, I’ll use the bookends in the Saturday finale. #1 BRADDOCK generally runs the same race every time out, while #8 MAKE IT A TRIPLE loves Del Mar and is wheeled right back by trainer Mike Machowsky, who has quietly had a very strong year (he’s hitting at 20%).

Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Aqueduct, Laurel, and Del Mar (11/11/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Just because the Breeders’ Cup is over doesn’t mean that quality racing has taken a holiday. In fact, Aqueduct, Laurel, and Del Mar all have compelling Saturday cards with plenty of wagering opportunities, and I’ve got multi-race tickets at all three tracks. One caveat: It’s supposed to be very cold on the east coast, and it’s not impossible that turf races get moved to the main track. If that happens, my analysis for the turf races at Aqueduct and Laurel becomes irrelevant.

AQUEDUCT

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 1,2,4,6,9
R2: 3,10
R3: 3,9
R4: 7,12,13
R5: 7

60 Bets, $30

Aqueduct’s bookends, for my money, are two of the three toughest races of the entire day across the three tracks I looked at. If you’ve got deeper pockets and want to punch the “ALL” button to start the Pick Five (or, for that matter, skip the Pick Five and play the early Pick Four), I absolutely get it. I narrowed it down to five horses, and I hope that’s enough coverage.

The second race is a fun turf affair, and your likely favorite is #10 RAPPEL, who breaks from the far outside and drops down in class. The drop is substantial, and he could win, but I need to use #3 JO’S BOLD CAT, who is 8-1 on the morning line despite a few solid tries at this level. That one’s lone win came over this turf course, and I think he could get an ideal setup with plenty of early speed signed on.

I’m also two-deep in the third. #3 GIANTINTHEMOONLITE may go favored off of a few strong recent efforts, and I’m using him, but he’s 2-for-22 lifetime and has not won since October of 2015. My top pick is actually #9 HEAVY MEDDLE, who showed a new dimension last time out when rating at Belmont. The outside draw should help that one, and I love the recent fast works, which aren’t necessarily typical of Bill Mott trainees.

The key to the fourth race, for me, is if #13 WORK OF ART draws in off the AE list. If he does, I think he’s the horse to beat off of an impressive debut where he was a late-running third at big odds. That day’s runner-up has since come back to win, and this barn does well with second-time starters. If he does not draw in, I think it’s a two-horse race between #7 IRON JOHNNY and #12 COLLECTIVE EFFORT, and if my top pick doesn’t run, those will probably be the two wagering favorites.

My best bet on the card is my lone single on this ticket. That’s #7 TROPHY ASSET, the likely favorite in the fifth race. His debut at Belmont was very sharp, and Chad Brown’s barn is white-hot. Further improvement is logical at second asking, and if he doesn’t win, I lose (and chances are, many other tickets lose as well).

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 1,4,5
R7: 5,10
R8: 2,5
R9: 2,3,5,6,7,12,14

84 Bets, $42

I thought this sequence was incredibly tough, and I do not have a single on my ticket. It starts with a 2-year-old maiden race going seven furlongs, and because that’s a tough distance to debut at, all three betting interests have races under their belts. #4 ALLURED and #5 VARIANT PERCEPTION both go out for Chad Brown, while #1 BLINDED VISION did everything but win in his debut. By using Blinded Vision, we also get #1A VINO ROSSO, and of the first-time starters, he’s the one I like most. He fetched $410,000 at auction, and his dam is a half to Belmont Stakes runner-up Commissioner, so he may want this distance right away.

I’m two-deep in the seventh. #10 CLASSIC COVEY may be favored off of two strong wins at Belmont. He’s undefeated since coming back from a long layoff, but I also need to use #5 SLIM SHADEY, who has returned to form for Jason Servis. Both of his two-turn races this past summer were strong, and he returns to such a route in this spot, which boasts a race shape that should favor a closer like him.

The eighth is the Grade 3 Red Smith, and I’m two-deep here as well. #2 MONEY MULTIPLIER could be a popular single, as his effort in the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic was too bad to be true. Anything close to his races two or three back would make him tough. Additionally, I’m using #5 OSCAR NOMINATED, who’s quietly had a very strong season despite only winning once. He was last seen running second in the Grade 1 Canadian International, and 8-1 seems like too big a price given his consistency.

If you’ve got deeper pockets and want to buy the ninth, go right ahead. As it stands, I’m using half of this 14-horse field, including several big prices. The price I’m most intrigued by is #14 ST. PATRICK FROST, who finally drops to the appropriate level after struggling against straight maidens most of his career. If you go back to his debut in April here at Aqueduct, though, you see a race that was not horrible. If he can repeat that race, I wouldn’t be stunned to see him in the winner’s circle at a gigantic number.

LAUREL

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #8

R8: 3,4,6
R9: 5
R10: 4,8,10,11
R11: 2,7,8,12

48 Bets, $24

Of the multi-race sequences at Laurel Park, I most prefer the late Pick Four. I think there are some live prices in here, and my single likely won’t be favored.

We start with the James F. Lewis for 2-year-olds, and while some may see this as a two-horse race between #4 BARRY LEE and #6 KOWBOY KARMA. I’m using them both, but I also need to include #3 WHERESHETOLDMETOGO. I’m drawing a line through his effort in the Sapling, which was longer than he wants to go. He’s a sprinter with tactical speed who does not need the lead, and at his likely price, I need to have him on my ticket.

My single comes in the ninth, the Richard W. Small. I respect #4 PAGE MCKENNEY, who will likely be favored, and he’s probably the standard-bearer for war horses that have been around forever and always seem to run well. However, my single is #5 WATERSHED, who spent most of the spring running against some of the best older horses on the east coast. He comes off a layoff to run here, but his workouts are consistent, and his recent bullet workout at Belmont inspires confidence. He’s 9/2 on the morning line, and I’ll be very happy if we get that price.

I’m four-deep in each of the last two races. The tenth is a turf sprint, and while #11 QUALITY TIME could certainly win, that post position is a red flag, and her 0-for-3 record in the U.S. doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. The horse I’m most intrigued by is #4 ISABEL’S ON IT, who flopped in her North American debut after a horrible break. However, she adds blinkers here for one of the top local barns, and if you liked her at 3-1 in her debut (where she had an excuse), how can you not take another shot here when she’ll probably be three or four times that price?

The Saturday finale is a maiden claiming event, and I hope I’m going deep enough. This is another race where, if you’ve got deep pockets or a light ticket elsewhere, it may be wise to punch the “ALL” button. My top pick is a bit of a price. That’s #12 NANNY ROCKS, who showed a bit of speed in her debut against much better at Belmont. Ollie Figgins’s trainees tend to improve with experience, and the outside post position should help her.

DEL MAR

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 4,7,8
R2: 5
R3: 2,6,7
R4: 3,4,8
R5: 2,3,5

81 Bets, $40.50

This Pick Five is a pretty fun sequence. The fields are short enough to where one can play an affordable ticket, but not so short that there’s no value, plus the favorites (with one possible exception) don’t figure to be very short prices.

The opener is a turf race for state-bred fillies and mares. My top pick is #4 WEATHER MARKET, who’s bred to love the turf and goes out for a barn whose horses tend to improve with experience and surface switches. The two betting favorites, #7 GEE STREET and #8 ROLLING SHADOW, are both logical, although the former is 0-for-9 and has had several prime chances.

My single will be a pretty popular one. #5 DANGEROUSLY CLOSE takes a big drop in class for a barn that’s enjoyed a good start to the meet. She’s shown ample early zip and adds blinkers, and these waters are much shallower than the ones she’s been swimming in to this point in her career.

The third is a maiden race for state-bred 2-year-olds. I went three-deep, and I used the three likely betting choices. #2 VIOLENT RIDGE should improve at second asking, while #6 ISHI goes to the red-hot Peter Miller barn and #7 MAVERICKS gets top gate rider Edwin Maldonado.

The fourth, though, represents a chance to take a swing. While I’m using logical horses #3 RED KING and #8 RUN LIKE RHETT, my top pick is 15-1 on the morning line. That’s #4 CURLY’S WATERFRONT, who I liked a lot last time out. He ran up against a speed-biased turf course that day, and he’s since been gelded by new trainer Reed Saldana. I’m more than willing to take another shot with him, as his best race would make him competitive in this spot.

The fifth race is the Saturday feature, the Grade 3 Bob Hope. If I’m alive, I’ll be alive to the three horses that figure to take money. #2 MOURINHO may have bounced off of a very strong debut and should like the added distance, while #3 RUN AWAY is a three-time stakes winner and #5 BEAUTIFUL SHOT is 2-for-2 and should improve with more experience.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: ALL
R7: 3,8
R8: 3,8
R9: 1,6,10

96 Bets, $48

And here we have what I felt was the toughest sequence of the day. I usually don’t like giving out tickets that exceed $40 in value, but I had to break that soft cap here.

The first leg is the type of race I HATE handicapping. It’s for older horses who have not won a race this year, and I have absolutely no confidence in any of these entrants. Thankfully, this is only a field of eight, not 12 or 14, so hitting the “ALL” button isn’t crippling.

The second leg is a 2-year-old maiden race, and #8 COOL BOBBY will be tough to beat. He missed by a neck in his debut, and this barn does not always have first-time starters fully cranked. I’ll also, though, be using the unfortunately-named #3 PITINO, who fetched $950,000 at auction and has been working lights-out ahead of his debut.

The third leg is a turf sprint, and this figures to be a race where most horses want the lead. #8 TIZANILLUSION makes her local debut and should sit an ideal trip beneath top local turf rider Drayden Van Dyke. On the off chance speed carries, I’ll also use #3 PAINTING CORNERS, who was dueled into submission last time out coming down the hill at Santa Anita.

If we get to the final leg, we’ll be alive to three horses. There’s not much speed in the race, and #10 JONNY’S CHOICE loves Del Mar, so he’s my top pick. I don’t love the post for #1 FREDDIES DREAM, and #6 ROMAN TIZZY gets a negative rider switch, but each horse is talented enough to win with their respective best effort.