Pick Five

Belmont Park and Santa Anita Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: 9/30/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

We’re just five weeks away from the 2017 Breeders’ Cup, and while many trainers have opted to rest their stars ahead of the event, Saturday’s cards at Belmont and Santa Anita are packed with great racing and prime wagering opportunities. I’ve got a pair of multi-race exotics tickets at each track, and the likely payoffs are such that, even if only one hits, we’ll likely still be looking at a winning day.

One note before we kick off the analysis: I’ve set up a feedback survey for those who visit the site. Simply put, I want to know more about what you expect from a content perspective, as well as what you like/don’t like and your thoughts on a few additional bells and whistles I’m thinking about adding. It’s my goal to turn this site into a resource for players, and hopefully, I’ve at least taken steps towards that point. The survey is here, and it only takes a few minutes. If you have the time to fill it out, I’d appreciate it greatly.

Now, let’s get down to business!

– – – – –

BELMONT PARK

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 2,7
R2: 4,6,9
R3: 2,4
R4: 2,3,5,7,8
R5: 3

60 Bets, $30

We’ll kick things off with a real puzzler. The opener is a $40,000 maiden claimer, and many of these horses just haven’t done much running. #2 VALDOCCO ran well a few times earlier this year against straight maidens, but that was at Gulfstream, and he’s been away a long time. I used him, but my top pick is #7 RIVER DEEP, who’s shown speed against better horses in the past and attracts John Velazquez. I’m taking a stand against #5 WHY GOD, who may go off lower than his 7/2 morning line due to his connections. Yes, this trainer/jockey combination merits respect, but the workouts at Monmouth are slow, the pedigree indicates that he wants much longer than seven furlongs, and (per DRF Formulator) Chad Brown is 0-for-his last-11 (and 1-for-his-last-21) with first-time starters in maiden claimers.

The second race is a turf sprint, and this is another race where you can go in many different directions. I can’t tell you who’ll be favored, but my top selection is #6 ABBOT, whose lone bad races on turf have come both directly before and directly after a one-year layoff. Joel Rosario hops aboard, and he’s ridden very well to this point in the meet. I’ll also use #4 LONE TRADER, who simply went too far last time out, and #9 SALLISAW, who is bred up and down for turf and has been gelded ahead of his return for a barn that’s done excellent work in turf sprints of late.

I’m using two of the logical contenders in the third race. Both #2 BIBLICAL and #4 ROAD TO MEATH debuted at Saratoga and could improve at second asking for top-notch barns. If I were to use another in here, it would probably be #8 FIRST WARRIOR. He’s bred to be a good one, has worked well since his debut (which he may have needed), and the odds disparity between this one and stablemate #6 AVERY ISLAND will likely be bigger than it should. However, while I may throw that one into a few vertical exotics wagers, I’ll stick with the first two on my Pick Five ticket.

The fourth is a fun turf race, and while I’m using the likely favorite (#3 FUNTASTIC), I didn’t think he was anywhere close to a lock. He did have trouble in his first start against winners, but I didn’t think he beat much two back. I’m most intrigued by the two outside horses. #8 LUNAIRE actually beat Funtastic last time out and has run up against horses like Bricks and Mortar and Frostmourne. He’s my top pick, and I also think you can make a real case for #7 HELLO HOLIDAY, who returns to his favorite turf course and gets Luis Saez. Finally, #2 VIA EGNATIA’s last race is a complete throw-out (he’s a turf horse, not a dirt horse, and running into eventual Allen Jerkens runner-up Takaful didn’t help), and #5 SOGLIO has been gelded since his last start and is another with significant back class.

We’ll finish with a fifth-race single, and probably the shortest price in the sequence. That’s #3 FAVORABLE OUTCOME, who has yet to run a bad race on dirt. He hasn’t been seen since a win in the Grade 2 Swale in February, but he’s been working very well ahead of his return, and anywhere close to his prior dirt efforts would likely beat this group.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #7

R7: 1,4,6
R8: 5,7,8
R9: 1
R10: 1,3,4,5,6,8,9,10

72 Bets, $36

Yes, I’m singling Elate in the Grade 1 Beldame, but I think this ticket could still pay handsomely. A large reason for that comes in the first leg, the Grade 1 Vosburgh, where I’ll first focus on the two horses I’m NOT using.

#2 EL DEAL made me look good with a runaway win in the Grade 1 Vanderbilt at Saratoga. He’s 3-for-3 since going to the Jorge Navarro barn, and he’s yet to really be tested. However, he’s lining up against plenty of horses with top-end early zip. #3 GREEN GRATTO, #4 TAKAFUL, and possibly #5 MR. CROW will make sure El Deal doesn’t get an easy lead. At his likely short price, given his one-dimensional running style and opposition he’ll face out of the gate, I have to try to beat him. Meanwhile, Mr. Crow takes a huge step up after two runaway wins at Saratoga. Yes, his two 100+ Beyer Speed Figures are big, but this is a sizable test for a horse with just three starts under his belt. Additionally, who, precisely, has he beaten in his wins, and what excuse did he have in his debut?

I’m three-deep here, and while I’ll use Takaful (who figures to benefit from a return to six furlongs), my top pick is #1 STALLWALKIN’ DUDE. He was way too close to the pace in the Forego, and that was just 15 days after a winning effort in an overnight stakes. He ran two strong races at Belmont earlier this year and should get an ideal setup. Another candidate for an ideal setup is #6 CELTIC CHAOS, who I’m throwing on my ticket in case multiple riders of speed horses get crazy and duel each other into submission. This horse may not appear good enough on speed figures, but if any horse benefits from the likely race shape, it’s this deep closer, and I have to have him on my ticket.

The second leg is the Grade 3 Pilgrim for 2-year-olds on the turf. #5 VOTING CONTROL was ultra-impressive in his debut win, which came earlier this meet. Chad Brown’s horses tend to improve at second asking, and such a step forward would make him the one to beat. However, I’m also keen on #8 EVALUATOR, who lost all chance in the With Anticipation following a horrible start, and solely for pace reasons, I’m also using #7 LOOKING READY. He flopped at Finger Lakes, and that’s concerning, but his pedigree is all-turf (by More Than Ready, out of a Giant’s Causeway mare), and he figures to be the main speed here. If he gets comfortable under Irad Ortiz, he may be the one they have to run down turning for home.

As mentioned, #1 ELATE is a single for me in the Grade 1 Beldame. She’s the typical Bill Mott filly that gets better and better as the year goes along, and her win in the Alabama was as impressive as any East Coast-based female horse has turned in this year. She’s helped in this spot, of course, by the lack of a star older filly or mare to run against her. #5 MONEY’SONCHARLOTTE has been managed brilliantly this year by Kelly Breen, but she’s been beating up on far lesser company. She’ll likely get her Grade 1 placing here, and a cold 1-5 exacta may not be a bad play, but I can’t see her beating Elate without monumental improvement.

We finish off the card with the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, and as you can see by my ticket, I think this race could go MANY different directions. I used all but three horses (two of which are Naipaul Chatterpaul-trained longshots, with the other being #7 CHANNEL MAKER, who takes a big step up after two races in the Canadian Triple Crown). #3 OSCAR PERFORMANCE could establish himself as a real Eclipse Award candidate with a win over older horses, but this distance is new to him, and this is a tough field. Many horses exit either the Arlington Million (won by #5 BEACH PATROL) or the Sword Dancer (won by #4 SADLER’S JOY), and don’t sleep on #10 THE GREY GATSBY, who makes his North American debut in search of firm ground for a trainer that can win with a European shipper. It’s a fascinating race, and you’ll likely get a square price on whichever horse you like. Hopefully, we’ll be alive to a nice score!

– – – – –

SANTA ANITA

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: ALL
R2: 2
R3: 6,10
R4: 1,5,8,11
R5: 4

96 Bets, $48

If you want to take my last four races and punch the early Pick Four instead, I get it. That’s a $4 wager for a 50-cent increment, and you can play it multiple times for a reasonable investment. However, given the 15% takeout on the Pick Five and the high likelihood of a big price in the first race, this is the ticket I’m putting out.

I do not have a clue in the Saturday opener. This is a maiden race for 2-year-olds going long on the turf, and many of these horses are stepping onto the lawn for the first time. #10 PUBILIUS SYRUS is the morning line favorite and could win, but the last-out stakes race set up perfectly for him, and he did not have an excuse two back against similar company. With so many horses that boast great turf pedigrees, I’m punching the “ALL” button, using all 12 horses, and hoping we get a bomb home (along with, perhaps, a scratch or two to cut down on the cost of the ticket!).

The second race features a horse I’ve got some conviction about. I’m of the belief that #2 SUPREME VENTURE was one of many Peter Miller horses that just did not like Del Mar. Additionally, he was between horses most of the way, which isn’t an easy thing for a fairly-inexperienced horse to deal with. His race here two back against much better was quite good, as was his debut, which came before a long layoff (and yes, his first race back after that is a throw-out). #7 BOLSTER is favored after a romp last time out, but that was against lesser foes and came over a racetrack playing very kind to early speed. I’ll take a stand with Supreme Venture.

The third is another 2-year-old race, and I’ll use the two logical horses. #6 INSTILLED REGARD just missed behind American Pharoah’s little brother in his debut and likely learned a lot from that effort given the slow break. I’m also using #10 MOURINHO, who fetched $625K at auction earlier this year and has been working lights-out for trainer Bob Baffert. If you’re looking for a price underneath, #11 SECULAR NATION may want more ground, but his second dam, Ready’s Gal, was Grade 1-placed as a 2-year-old, and offspring of Distorted Humor can certainly run well at first asking.

The fourth race is probably a second division of the opener, since the conditions are identical. This one was not easy, but I was at least able to narrow it down a little. #1 CHOO CHOO is bred up and down for turf, and certainly not for a sprint at Los Alamitos, so he should improve here. #5 BIG BUZZ and #8 PITCHING have both been chasing Encumbered, a quality turf horse we’ll see later on Saturday in the FrontRunner. Finally, #11 RESTRAINEDVENGEANCE didn’t do anything wrong in his debut, which came in a turf sprint. Val Brinkerhoff has gotten this one recently, and she does great work with new acquisitions. Per DRF Formulator, she’s 6-for-27 with such horses over the past three years (22%), with six additional in-the-money finishes (44%) and a solid ROI ($2.69).

We’ll finish this sequence with a single in Santa Anita’s first Grade 1 of the day. This is the Zenyatta, and I’m giving #4 PARADISE WOODS one more shot. She was awful in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks at 6/5, and she lost all chance at the break in her return at Del Mar last month. However, she’s fired nothing but bullets since coming back to Santa Anita, and much like with Elate in the Beldame, there aren’t any heavy hitters lining up against her. #1 FAITHFULLY does merit respect, but on Paradise Woods’s best day, I don’t think she can run with her.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #8

R8: 1,4,8
R9: 7,8,10
R10: 5,6,8
R11: 3,5,11

81 Bets, $40.50

This is an all-stakes Pick Four with plenty of potential to pay big. I’m three-deep in each leg, and while some of the likely favorites merit respect, I certainly don’t think any are standouts to be afraid to go against.

The Grade 1 FrontRunner kicks this sequence off, and I’m not getting cute. #4 BOLT D’ORO may be the best 2-year-old male in the country, and he’s bred to love this route. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because he had a picture-perfect trip rating well behind a hot pace in the Del Mar Futurity. #1 ZATTER ran a great race being so close to that pace, so I have to use him here, and I’m also using the other Bob Baffert trainee, #8 SOLOMINI. He and the runner-up were well clear of the rest of the field in his debut, and he’s bred up and down to go as long as possible.

The second leg is the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive, and there appears to be a metric ton of early speed signed on. As such, I want closers, and all three horses I used should be flying late. #10 GOODYEARFORROSES has been very good this season and has enough tactical speed to get first run turning for home. She’s probably the horse to beat, but both #7 BEAU RECALL and #8 DECKED OUT stand to benefit from the likely race shape. The former just missed in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks, and that result may give us some value here (she’s 8-1 ML, but would probably be considerably shorter had she gotten her nose down). Meanwhile, Decked Out may want more give in the ground than she’ll get, but she likely needed her last-out effort and returns to the site of her greatest triumph, which came in the Grade 1 American Oaks.

The third leg is the Grade 1 Awesome Again. #8 CUPID may be the shortest price in this sequence, and he’s probably the one to beat. Having said that, Cupid’s trainer, Bob Baffert, also saddles #6 MUBTAAHIJ, who has been working very well of late. That’s a curious entry, so I’m not as scared of Cupid as I would’ve been had Baffert solely entered him. Additionally, #5 BREAKING LUCKY hasn’t won in a while, but he’s had the bad luck of chasing Gun Runner in each of his last two starts. With all due respect to Cupid, this may be a softer spot, and given the way he’s been training at Woodbine, I think he’s got a big shot beneath Mike Smith.

The payoff leg is the Unzip Me, and this may be the toughest race of the sequence. I took the approach of preferring horses with success on the downhill turf course, and I also threw in one returning to the turf. #3 KENDA and #5 STORM THE HILL both exit the Del Mar Oaks, but both have also run well at this unique configuration in the past and could improve coming back to it. Also, #11 MISS SOUTHERN MISS’s layoff concerns me, but her lone prior turf effort was too good to ignore. She beat some talented fillies in last year’s Surfer Girl, and there should be plenty of speed for her to rate off of in here before being asked for her late kick. Kent Desormeaux riding for his brother is another good sign.

A Tribute to a Friend, Plus Woodbine Mile Day Analysis, Selections, and Tickets

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

We’ll get to my tickets and analysis for Woodbine in a few minutes. However, there’s a more pressing matter that I need to address, and unfortunately, it’s not an easy one to talk about.

The press corps covering horse racing in New York has thinned out significantly in recent years. Some people have retired, others have been laid off, and a few, yes, have passed away. It’s tough to see that happen, and it’s not getting any simpler to deal with.

Mike Jarboe was a longtime copy editor for The Albany Times Union, and has been one of that paper’s featured handicappers. He retired from his full-time post last year, but still handicapped daily this past Saratoga season. That isn’t easy for anyone to do, but, without getting too far into it (out of respect for Mike and his family), he’s been battling some serious health problems of late.

Mike’s one of the most respected men in the Saratoga press box, and probably the only member of the press corps that could seriously challenge me in a Pedro the Press Box Master Chef hot dog-eating contest. In addition, he’s a world-class fiddle player and an even better human being. He’s in the club of people that had a million chances to tell me to shut up and never did, and anyone that’s ever rubbed shoulders with him came away better for the experience.

On Labor Day, Saratoga named a race after Mike, and he was in the winner’s circle with a number of family members and close friends. I wish I could’ve been there, as that was a tremendous gesture. However, there is one thing I can propose, and hopefully, it’s something Mike would appreciate.

Every year, newspaper handicappers across several publications attempt the same arduous task: Pick the most winners possible in Saratoga’s 40-day, 400-race meet. If you think it’s easy, or that luck matters more than skill, you’re wrong. It’s a mental grind, as it should be, because being the best of the best is a point of pride for whoever is able to do it.

I’m using this space to propose an idea to the leadership groups of several different papers, namely The Saratogian, The Albany Times Union, The Daily Gazette, The Saratoga Special, and any New York City papers that still have a daily handicapper picking every race on every Saratoga card. I would like all of us to come together in recognition of someone that’s done a lot of good, and for the leading handicapper across print media at all Saratoga meets going forward to be recognized with the Mike Jarboe Award.

(Quick aside: If you think this is me proposing an award so I can win it, you’re missing the point entirely. This is me attempting to appropriately honor a friend whose contributions I greatly respect.)

We can all hash out the details later as to what the award actually is. Maybe it’s a trophy, or a plaque, or a wrestling-style championship belt (my close friends and colleagues already know which one I’m voting for). In all seriousness, though, I motion that we all come together to celebrate someone who dedicated decades of service to Saratoga and the Albany print media, and I think it’s a cause we can all get behind. Who knows? Perhaps those close to Mike can recommend a charity we could all donate to in some way, shape, or form.

At any rate: Mike, if you’re reading this, thanks for everything you did, and thanks for never telling this motor-mouthed, fresh-faced kid to shut up.

– – – – –

WOODBINE PICKS/ANALYSIS/TICKETS

$0.20 Pick Five: Race #2

R2: 6,8
R3: 3,10
R4: 1,4,5,8,10
R5: 3,4,8
R6: 1,2,7

180 Bets, $36

I’ve mentioned it before, but I love Woodbine’s 20-cent minimums on multi-race exotics. It makes challenging sequences much more playable, and because everyone’s playing for 20 cents, the difference in payoffs isn’t nearly as much as one might think. This is good, because this is a VERY difficult card, one that starts with a tough early Pick Five sequence.

I don’t trust likely second race favorite Forestella, who’s 0-for-10 with six seconds. She could win, and I’m using her, but my top pick is first-time starter Crimson Ring, a filly that boasts a flashy recent workout and top local rider Eurico Da Silva. I’ll also go two-deep in the third, using likely chalk Avie’s Mineshaft and Mark Casse runner Loopety Loo, the latter of which was a good second in a stakes race last time out.

I thought the fourth race was incredibly difficult, and if you’ve got a single elsewhere in the sequence, you may want to buy this race. Hopefully, going five-deep here is enough. Finally, I’m three-deep in the last two legs. The Grade 3 Bold Venture changed significantly with the scratch of likely favorite Good Bye Greg, and I’m playing against new likely favorite Unbridled Juan, who’s never struck me as a sprinter. I’m three-deep there, and hopefully we can finish off a nice score with a price.

$0.20 Pick Four: Race #4

R4: 1,4,5,8,10
R5: 3,4,8
R6: 1,7
R7: 1,2,5,6,7

150 Bets, $30

The first two legs of this ticket are the same as legs three and four of my early Pick Five. I used Boreal Spirit in the Pick Five, but not here. If you want to use him and spend some extra money, feel free. However, I thought the seventh race was extremely tough, and I opted to spread there. That’s another race where, if you’ve got conviction elsewhere in the sequence, you may want to punch the “ALL” button and give yourself some security if you get to the payoff leg.

$0.20 Pick Five/$0.20 Pick Four

R8: 1
R9: 2,7,9
R10: 4,8
R11: 2,4,5,7,9,10
R12: 1,2,6,7,10

180 Bets, $36

The Pick Five starts in the eighth, and the Pick Four begins in the ninth. I’m singling Quidura in the eighth, the Grade 2 Canadian, and I’d venture to say that I’m not alone. She’ll be one of the shortest prices on the entire card, and if she repeats her Diana effort, where she was beaten a head by Lady Eli, she’s going to be extremely difficult to beat.

The ninth is a maiden claimer that’s been jammed into the sequence. Conquest Swagman takes a big drop in class for solid connections and may be favored, but my top pick there is Red Chill, another class-dropper whose last race on turf seems like a throw-out. The tenth race is the Grade 1 Northern Dancer, and while some might single European shipper Hawkbill, I’m going to add Messi, whose lone start on this turf course was incredibly impressive. He’s inconsistent, but if the good Messi shows up, he’s got a big shot.

That brings us to the last two legs, both of which are wide-open races with big fields. I’m six-deep in the 11th, a claiming event, and several horses I’m using are prices. Bear’sway certainly wins if he’s right, but he takes an alarming drop in class and hasn’t been the same horse we saw in 2015 and early-2016. I want coverage here, for sure, and hopefully we’ll get a price home.

The last leg is the main event. This is the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile, and it’s drawn a tremendous field with several European invaders. My top pick is Lancaster Bomber, whose only North American start was a strong second behind Oscar Performance in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. He’s chased some of the top 3-year-olds in Europe this year, and he benefits from a huge weight break (he’ll tote just 112 pounds and get as many as 12 pounds from his rivals). I don’t love him (as evidenced by me going five-deep!), but 9/2 is a pretty square price on a horse that’s shown he can compete against some of the world’s best horses.

$0.20 Jackpot Hi 5: Race #13

1st: 2,4,5,10
2nd: 2,4,5,10
3rd: 2,4,5,10
4th: 1,2,4,5,6,10,13
5th: 1,2,4,5,6,10,13

288 Bets, $57.60

I don’t usually play these sorts of wagers, but Woodbine’s 20-cent Jackpot Hi 5 boasts a mandatory payout, so I’ve put a ticket together if you’re interested. This is NOT an easy race, but I was able to separate four “A” horses and three additional “B” horses from the rest of the field. This is a bit more expensive than I’d have preferred, but the pool size will certainly merit taking a swing. If you’re playing, I’d advise a syndicate ticket to maximize the covered combinations.

Belmont Park Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: 9/9/17 (PLUS: Saratoga stats/recap)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

It’s opening weekend at Belmont Park, and Saturday’s card is a good one. There are 10 races on the program, and I’ve got a pair of multi-race tickets that I’m putting online. I think there’s plenty of potential for a few prices throughout the card, and hopefully, we can connect the dots. If we do, chances are we’ll get paid!

$0.50 Pick Five

R1: ALL
R2: 9,10
R3: 1,5
R4: 2,5,6
R5: 1

84 Bets, $42

This is a bit more expensive than I’d like, and if you want to downsize to an early Pick Four or a smaller Pick Five ticket, that’s just fine. My listed ticket would make for an $6 Pick Four that starts in the second leg, so I get that logic. However, the first race is wide-open, and if we get a price home there, it could set the tone for a big payday. I’m hitting the “ALL” button there, and I’ll narrow things down elsewhere.

I’ll go with Triangulate and Devine Entry in the second, and I think both could improve in their second lifetime starts. I’ll also go two-deep in the third. Portfolio Manager makes his first start for new trainer Danny Gargan, while Conquest Sure Shot woke up in his first race on dirt last time out and may have wanted this surface all along.

I’m using three in the fourth, and while two are logicals, I’m also throwing in Indimaaj, who is bred to go a distance of ground and faded following a speed duel in his unveiling. That brings me to my single, which comes in the payoff leg. I loved Kahrumana’s last race, where she set a pretty fast pace yet hung on to finish a close-up third. There’s some speed signed on here, but she seems like the quickest of the quick, and I think the rail draw is a big plus.

$0.50 Pick Four

R7: 2,3,11,12
R8: 3
R9: 3,4,7,8,9
R10: 2,10,11

60 Bets, $30

The makeup of my ticket changed considerably when Far From Over scratched out of the eighth. He would’ve been a heavy favorite, and I’m left with a single in a four-horse field. Anyway, I’m using a price in the opening leg. Itsinthestars, Treatherlikestar, and High Jingo are all logical and will be bet, but I need to use Rock Ave. Road as well. She ran some solid races here earlier in the year, and the rider switch to Joel Rosario is colossal. She ran behind a few of these at Saratoga, but I think she’ll improve with the change in scenery.

The eighth is the Saturday feature, the Seattle Slew. Conquest Windycity seems like the lone speed in a small field, and I think he’ll be very tough. The ninth, though, is much tougher. I went five-deep, and I hope that’s enough. If Camelot Kitten is right second off the layoff, he probably wins, but there’s also the possibility he just hasn’t improved from age three to age four, so I want coverage.

I’ll go three-deep to close things out. Mineralogy scratched, and that opens up the field a bit. Tu Exageres was eased last time out at Saratoga, but he’s my top pick. That one didn’t do much wrong in three starts before that, and I’m willing to give him another chance. I’ll also use Peculiar Sensation and Real Creel in an attempt to close things out.

– – – – –

OK, time for some stats before we go. Saratoga was a big meet for me in a number of ways. I put up a LOT of content on this website, and I was very curious as to the audience it reached.

I’d like to extend a special thank you to those who read and shared my stuff, because the analytics surpassed my wildest expectations. My website, and the content that was housed on it, received approximately 12,000 views from mid-July through Labor Day.

I started this website in large part because there were certain things I’d been permitted to do with a previous employer that I was stopped from doing about six months ago. I’ve never intended to make any money from this website (note that I’m not charging for picks or content!). This serves the purpose of scratching the writing/handicapping itch, while also giving people a handy reference point to find out more about me. I never once thought I’d ever reach THAT many people, and I’m floored that I did. Once again: THANK YOU.

Admittedly, a large part of that traffic was probably due to the fact that I had a very good meet. I wound up as the leading print handicapper at Saratoga, which is one of the greatest honors I will ever earn in my chosen field (not to mention validation for a chip I’ve had on my shoulder for six months!). My projected winners won 128 of 400 races where I had at least one top-three runner left after scratches, which is an even 32% clip.

Even is a good word in another sense. My father and I dove into the numbers, and we both concluded that, if you had bet $2 on every one of my top selections to win throughout the meet, you’d have, yep, broken even. In gambler’s terms, my $2 ROI was $2, which is pretty incredible considering I handicapped and provided selections for every single race, including ones where I didn’t necessarily have a strong opinion.

I’ll be back in 10 months to defend my title, and hopefully, next year’s meet goes as smoothly as the one before it did!

Del Mar Opening Day Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: 7/19/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Wednesday is opening day at Del Mar. The card is a good one, and it features something that’s been lacking in California of late: Full fields. Connections have saved plenty of bullets for California’s flagship summer meet, and while you can debate the merits of that (yes, this card is great, but I’m sure Santa Anita wishes they didn’t have to cancel days of racing due to low entries!), there’s no doubt that there are plenty of wagering opportunities coming up where the turf meets the surf.

I’ll go race-by-race and give my thoughts. If you’re interested in my Pick Five and Pick Four tickets, they’re at the end of this article (remember, Del Mar does not do an early Pick Four, just one at the end of the card). Let’s get started!

RACE #1: It won’t take long for me to go against a morning line favorite, because I do not like Getoffmyback in the opener. Astute readers may remember that beating Getoffmyback two weeks ago at this level at Santa Anita resulted in me scoring with a $393 Pick Five, and that field may have been worse than what he faces here. He stretches out, but has never hit the board in four starts going long.

I’m keying the horses surrounding him in the starting gate. Our Nation helped set a solid pace three back in his lone route race (which came against better horses), and he still hung on to finish a clear second that day. The class drop should help, and Flavien Prat staying on despite the misfire last time out is a good sign. Additionally, Papa Royale is a “lightbulb” play based off of a strong maiden win at Los Alamitos. He didn’t beat much, but his career record looks considerably better if you toss out the turf races he’s run, and this is a horse that could be figuring things out.

RACE #2: My first strong selection of the day comes here. We won’t get much of a price on Pedro Cerrano, who breaks from the rail for trainer Peter Miller, but there’s a lot to like. Yes, he comes in off a long layoff, but he’s been training very well at San Luis Rey, and because of the layoff, he’s protected in this $20,000 claimer. That’s usually a sign that a horse is doing very well, and given his 2-for-2 record at Del Mar, I think there’s reason to believe a big effort is in the offing. I’m singling Pedro Cerrano in all multi-race exotic wagers, and 2-1 may be a fair price if he runs back to his two local performances from last year.

RACE #3: This is a tricky allowance race featuring many horses with aversions to winning. Over Par likely would’ve been favored despite a 1-for-17 career mark, but he scratched Wednesday morning. If you want to spend some extra money and buy this race in multi-leg wagers, I won’t stop you.

I’ll hope that going two-deep gives me enough coverage. Accountability set a scorching past last time out at Santa Anita, and he should sit a much easier trip in this spot given the relative lack of early speed signed on alongside him. Additionally, Alsatian was a strong second in a $201,000 stakes race two back and has more tactical speed than he showed in his last effort. Hopefully, going three-deep will get me through this race.

RACE #4: The morning line man thinks this is a two-horse race between 9/5 favorite Classy Tune and 2-1 first-time starter Pretty Owl, who represents the Bob Baffert barn. I’m using both, but there are two others I’ll throw in at prices.

It’s great to see Tom Proctor back on the west coast, and he’ll saddle Slim Fit, who ran a strong second in her debut last month at Delaware Park. She dueled through fast fractions over what’s usually a slow track, and if she improves off of that effort (as Proctor-trained second-time starters often do), she’ll be one to respect in here.

I’m also going to use 10-1 shot Literary Critic, a first-time starter trained by Clifford Sise. This one is bred to be a runner. She’s by City Zip and out of a mare named Ain’t She Sweet. Ain’t She Sweet is by Storm Cat, which makes her a full sister to both 2009 Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic winner Life Is Sweet and 2004 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Sweet Catomine. Literary Critic boasts a solid, consistent worktab, and Sise has a sneaky record of late with debuting runners, so I think this one merits inclusion on your tickets.

RACE #5: The first 2-year-old maiden race of the meet is here, and it’s a doozy. Of the 11 horses (including one also-eligible) that are signed on to run, eight will debut in this spot. Morning line favorite Tyfosha chased a next-out stakes winner in her debut and looms large, but I don’t think she’s a cinch.

Bob Baffert, as usual, boasts a flashy first-time starter in the form of Just a Smidge, who’s been working well at Santa Anita. What’s interesting, though, is that Richard Mandella may have a precocious runner of his own in here. That’s Varanasi, a daughter of Jimmy Creed who fetched $385,000 at auction last September. The June 27th workout hints at major talent, and while Mandella’s horses usually get much better with age, anything close to that workout would make her a formidable foe on debut.

I also included Broome, who draws the rail but could have enough talent to overcome what can be a problematic post position for debuting runners. On paper, the pedigree (by Bellamy Road, out of a Closing Argument mare) doesn’t seem like much, but she hammered for a respectable $80,000 earlier this year and has worked pretty well for Peter Miller, whose barn is firing on all cylinders. A closer look at the pedigree reveals that her dam won a small stakes race as a 2-year-old, and she’s thrown a stakes-placed runner already (a filly named Katniss The Victor). If you’re playing a more budget-conscious ticket than the $48 one I have below, maybe you can stomach leaving her off, but I wanted her on it, as she’ll be a price and could possess considerable talent.

RACE #6: I’m very happy this race was the one between the Pick Five and Pick Four, because I was baffled by it when I looked at the form. This is a stakes-quality allowance race, and I could make a case for a number of runners in here.

Moonless Sky has been very impressive since switching to the Eddie Truman barn. She’s won four in a row, including a stakes race against state-breds. She tackles a stakes-quality field here, but she’s got more tactical speed than she showed last time, and 6-1 seems like a very square price on a horse that’s in career form.

The other horse that intrigues me is Family Meeting. Family Meeting is a multiple stakes-winner who had a horrible pace setup last time out at Gulfstream, yet was beaten less than a length. I also liked Frenzified a bit before she scratched.

RACE #7: The Pick Four starts here, and I think most of the talent lines up towards the outside. The two likely favorites (Gato Del Oro and Absolutely Stylish) come in off of maiden wins, and while I’m using both and either could win, I’m by no means married to either of them here.

Giant Expectations took a step forward in two starts at Belmont Park against New York-breds, and Magical Mystery could come flying late to overcome a bad post. I’ll use them both, but I’ll also throw in 12-1 shot Saint Dermot, a pace-dependent closer who could get a dream setup. There’s a lot of early speed on paper, and it could set up for a clunk-up closer to pick up the pieces late. Because of the possibility of that scenario unfolding, I want this longshot on my ticket.

Additional note: Tribal Jewel is on the AE list and needs two scratches to draw in. If one of the above horses scratches and he gets in the field, I’m substituting him in. The likely shape of the race is a concern, but he’s a consistent horse who hasn’t finished off the board in more than a year and won here three times last summer and fall.

RACE #8: This is the traditional opening day feature, the Oceanside Stakes. A full field of 14 3-year-olds will go a mile on the grass, and while a big field like this is usually not a spot to single in, I LOVE the lukewarm morning line favorite.

That’s Bowies Hero, who was last seen running fourth behind eventual Belmont Derby winner Oscar Performance in the Pennine Ridge. The race shape wasn’t kind to this closer that day, and he’s shown what he can do when he gets a pace to run at. He’s a two-time stakes winner that’s been running against much, much better horses, and there should be plenty of pace in front of him in this spot. I like him a lot in this spot, and if we get any sort of a price on him, that’s great.

RACE #9: This is the second 2-year-old race of the day, and fillies will go five furlongs. Unlike the fifth, which features an abundance of first-time starters, this race has some horses we’ve seen before, and I’m using a handful of them.

Likely favorite Spiced Perfection ran a solid second on June 16th, while Smiling Tigress has shown zip in the mornings since a likely-needed unveiling and Streak of Luck was bet before enduring a horrible trip in her debut last month. It wouldn’t be a shock to see any of these horses step forward, but given that none have been overly impressive to this point, I also opted to include a first-time starter…and in this case, she’s a big price.

Tapitha Bonita is 20-1 on the morning line, and the stats of the connections don’t exactly make you scream with confidence. However, the worktab she possesses has some strong moves. Her July 5th move was fifth-fastest of 34, her June 30th drill was fourth-fastest of 35, and her June 17th workout was seventh-fastest of 73. While her pedigree doesn’t jump off the page, and the $6,000 purchase price in January is low, she’s the third foal from the mare to race. Both of her predecessors are full siblings, and both are winners. Given this information, and the quality of the opposition here, I’m happy to throw her onto the ticket, especially at that price.

RACE #10: We end with a puzzler. This is a $16,000 claimer, and a few of these horses make you wonder why they’re running in this spot. Belisarius, for instance, was fifth in last year’s Belmont Gold Cup going two miles on turf…and now, he’s showing up in a $16,000 claimer going a mile on dirt?

I settled on going four-deep. My top pick is Preacher Roe, who’s protected by trainer Mike Puype off a long layoff. Puype excels with such moves, and this gelding’s starts at this level and against similar company have been some of the best of his career.

I’ll reluctantly use 3-1 morning line favorite Private Prospect. I’m not sure he’s capable of such a performance, but his best race certainly wins this (he was third in two Grade 3 races back in 2015), and he’s a candidate for Del Mar’s “ship and win” program, which I’m sure is part of the reason he’s here. Additionally, Shackleford Banks has won five of 11 career dirt starts and would benefit from a pace meltdown (which isn’t out of the question), and 8-1 shot Accelerant is a juicy price given that one’s affinity for two-turn routes of ground. If he repeats the race two back, where he won by more than five lengths, he’s a major player.

– – – – –

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 4,6
R2: 1
R3: 5,6
R4: 2,3,6,8
R5: 1,3,6,8

64 Bets, $32

– – – – –

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #7

R7: 5,6,7,9,10 (12 in case any scratch and that one draws in)
R8: 4
R9: 4,6,8,9
R10: 3,4,7,9

80 Bets, $40

Belmont Park Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Stars and Stripes Day (7/8/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Saturday is Stars and Stripes Day at Belmont Park, and it’s produced a stellar card with top-quality racing and ample wagering opportunities. I’ll profile the Pick Five and late Pick Four, and hopefully we can build on Tuesday’s success, which included a Pick Five score at Santa Anita. One note: This analysis assumes races scheduled for the turf stay there.

Here’s how I’ll play the card!

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 4
R2: 1,7
R3: 2,8
R4: 1,8,9,10
R5: 1,5,7,11

64 Bets, $32

Don’t get too excited thinking we’ll get a price on my single, because I have a VERY difficult time believing we’ll get 6-1 on Le Pin. This colt hasn’t been seen since a solid December debut, where he faded to third in a race won by eventual stakes winner Classic Rock. He’s bred up and down for the turf and should improve in his second start for trainer Todd Pletcher; if we get the listed odds, I’ll be very happy to bet him.

I think the second and third races each come down to two betting interests. I actually preferred 3-1 second choice Bareeqa to 2-1 favorite Selenite before the latter scratched. I’ll substitute a two-horse entry that could be well-meant. Moving to the middle leg, Base Command and National Flag are entered in the third and look like promising 2-year-olds.

I’ll spread in the last two legs, and in doing so, I’ll be alive to a few big prices. 20-1 bomb Kitty Maddnes steps up in class in the fourth, but does so off of an impressive win in her second start of the year. Another step forward would make her a contender at a big price. Additionally, Arghad has never run a truly bad race in six career starts. The cutback he’ll get in Saturday’s fifth should help this 15-1 shot, and I think he’ll be live at a nice number.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #7

R7: 2
R8: 7,8,12
R9: 2,6
R10: ALL

66 Bets, $33

This is an all-stakes Pick Four that includes both Grade 1 races on the Saturday program, as well as a pair of Grade 2 affairs that feature some of the best older horses in the country. I’ll start off with a single, as Mind Your Biscuits seems to have a picture-perfect setup in the Belmont Sprint Championship. Green Gratto and Unified will both be gunning for the lead, which should play into the hands of the returning Dubai Golden Shaheen winner. He loves this seven-furlong distance, and I think he’ll be extremely tough to beat.

The eighth is the Belmont Oaks, and I’m using all three of Chad Brown’s entrants (he had four, but Fifty Five scratched). Sistercharlie ran a tremendous race against much better horses overseas last out, while New Money Honey showed a new dimension when racing on the lead in her Wonder Again win and Uni has been training very well. Meanwhile, I was tempted to single Shaman Ghost in the Suburban, as he does figure to be the best horse in the race. However, I can’t shake the possibility of Matt King Coal getting loose on the front end and wiring the field. As such, I had to use him (thankfully, the ticket isn’t too expensive!).

This leads us to the Belmont Derby. It’s the main event of Stars and Stripes Day, $1.2 million is on the line…and I’m waving the white flag. For my money, this is the most wide-open race on the card. I can make a valid case for as many as seven or eight of these runners, and given that I have plenty of room in my budget, I’m going to hit the “ALL” button to buy myself some security. Even if the first few legs are chalky, this Pick Four has solid potential, as the Belmont Derby favorite may not go off much higher than 3-1 or 7/2.