Pick Four

Analysis for Monmouth Park, Santa Anita (5/13/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

The Saturday between the Kentucky Derby and Preakness offers plenty of wagering opportunities. Santa Anita’s card boasts a pair of stakes races (including the Grade 3 Laz Barrera), and it’s also Opening Day at Monmouth Park. Those Opening Day festivities may have to deal with plenty of rain, but that could also mean some real chances to take shots with horses who are prices on the morning line.

I’ll profile a few Monmouth spot plays first, then wheel into Santa Anita. Note that my analysis for Monmouth assumes a wet track; if for some reason the weather system runs into an inconveniently-closed bridge or something and doesn’t come through, not much of this applies.

MONMOUTH PARK

R2: #6 D’marin (9/2)

This is a bottom-level claimer, and it’s NOT exactly an award-winning bunch. Big-time dropper One Sided will likely be a heavy favorite, but I’ll try to beat him. He hasn’t won since last June, and while his best race crushes this group, it’s worth noting that he’s never hit the board in three races run over wet tracks.

D’marin is another who hasn’t won in a while, but there may be a very simple reason for it. My thinking is that this 9-year-old gelding simply hates Parx. A glance at his Monmouth Park form shows seven wins and 16 top-three finishes from 23 local starts, and he also boasts a pair of wins over wet tracks. The layoff is a bit of a concern, but the presence of a 20% rider is a big plus, and I’m hoping we get a bit of a price here.

R6: #7 Full Pads (8-1)

The sixth is a $7,500 claimer, and none of these horses have won twice. However, there’s one in here I like, and he’s a nice number on the morning line.

Full Pads’s lone win came at Monmouth last summer, but the race of his I’m intrigued by is his second-place effort against $14,000 claimers here in the slop on July 29th. That was a solid group, and that day’s third-place finisher came back to win at next asking. The presence of Nik Juarez is certainly positive, and he showed plenty of early zip last time out at Parx when dueling with a runaway winner. 8-1 seems more than fair, and I hope we get it.

SANTA ANITA

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #2

R2: 3,5,7
R3: 5
R4: 3,4,7
R5: 1,2

18 bets, $9

As you can probably guess by how cheap the ticket is, I don’t expect this to pay a whole lot. With that in mind, you may want to punch it a few times to maximize a possible return.

I’m using Omega Moon in the opening leg, but I don’t think he’s unbeatable. He’ll probably get hammered down in the wagering, which could drift up the prices on the other two horses I used. My single comes in the second leg. If American Pastime runs back to his debut, everyone else is running for second money. It’s curious he runs here and not in the Laz Barrera, but this isn’t a strong group running against him, and I wouldn’t be shocked if trainer Bob Hess sweeps the exacta with the returning Supreme Venture.

There’s another strangely-spotted horse in the fourth. Cistron will be favored, and he probably should be, but why is a horse whose last race was a win going long on dirt at Oaklawn Park running back less than a month later down the hill? Plus, there’s lots of speed here, which I’m hoping opens things up for either Farley or Arms Runner. Finally, I’ll use both American Anthem and Kimbear in the Laz Barrera. If the former is right, he jogs, but those last two races leave such a bad taste in my mouth that I can’t single him. Kimbear could be the lone closer in a race full of speed, and he lost all chance in the Santa Anita Derby at the break.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 4,5,6
R7: 2,3,4
R8: 1,9
R9: 1,8,9

54 bets, $27

This is a fun sequence, even if the stakes races are elsewhere on the card. The sixth may be the best betting race on the entire card, and I most prefer Cheekaboomboom, who cuts back in distance, shows a strong work on April 28th, and attracts top rider Flavien Prat. Informality is the horse to beat in the seventh on the class drop for white-hot trainer Eddie Truman, but don’t sleep on closer Redneck Crazy or fellow class-dropper Justonetimebaby (who exits a scorching-fast starter allowance race).

Tanners Pride may be a popular single in the eighth. I used him, but Hedoesitinstyle showed a lot of speed against better horses in his debut and should improve at second asking. If he does so at a price, it’ll knock plenty of tickets out. Finally, I’m going three-deep in the payoff leg. Salsita and All That Heat will probably be the first and second choices, but I also had to use 12-1 shot Blame It On Alphie, who’ll probably be half that price at post time given the connections. She hasn’t been seen since running fourth behind With Honors last September, but Richard Mandella can get a horse ready off the bench, and Mike Smith signing on to ride bodes well for her chances in this spot.

2017 Kentucky Derby Analysis, PLUS Three Pick Four Tickets

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

I’ve never been accused of mincing words, and I’m not going to start now. Friday was, um…NOT a good day for yours truly. On Twitter, I likened it to the start of the Drago/Rocky fight in Rocky IV, when the big Russian is beating the daylights out of the champ. Hopefully, Saturday is akin to the second half of the fight, where Rocky comes back, beats the giant, and ends the Cold War.

I’ll start by analyzing the main event, the 2017 Kentucky Derby. It’s one of the most wide-open renewals in recent memory, with every single horse seeming to have some sort of redeeming factor and massive flaw. You’re likely to get a square price on whichever horse you like, and the exotics wagers figure to be very enticing as well.

My top pick is Classic Empire. It’s by no means a top pick made with tons of conviction, or with a proclamation that he can’t lose. However, he overcame a tough trip to win the Arkansas Derby over a solid group. He was shuffled back, raced between horses most of the way around the track, and came flying late in such a way that it convinced most Saturday’s distance will not be a problem. If he can negotiate a comfortable trip (always the biggest ‘if’ in any Derby), I think he’s the horse to beat.

Having said that, I’ll be going five-deep in all multi-race exotics wagers I play. Three of the other horses are ones who will receive plenty of support at the windows. Always Dreaming is undefeated around two turns, McCraken loves Churchill Downs and should improve off the Blue Grass, and Irish War Cry’s record fits the mold of a Derby winner if you can toss his unconscionable clunker in the Fountain of Youth.

The fifth horse I’m using is my price horse, the one who would potentially make Saturday a very good day for me. That’s Tapwrit, and if you’re willing to throw out the Blue Grass, his huge price doesn’t make much sense. The 10-furlong distance should fit him like a glove given his pedigree, he’s won over a wet track before, and he turned in a flashy workout at Churchill last week leading up to the Derby. I want every bit of him at his likely price, even after his lousy race at Keeneland last month.

With all of that in mind, let’s shift gears to a few Pick Four plays for Saturday. These are posted with the same caveats as Friday’s: These tickets assume all races carded for the turf course stay there. If they get rained off, updated versions of my tickets (or advice to pass the sequences entirely) will be posted on my Twitter page.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #2

R2: 2,4,7,8
R3: 1,5
R4: 1,5,6,7
R5: 1

32 bets, $16

This isn’t an expensive ticket, and I really like this sequence. The first and third legs are strong betting races, and I’ve got confidence in the second and fourth legs. Flashy Jewel will likely go off shorter than his 8-1 morning line in the third, and I think he’s the lone speed horse in the race. Part of me wanted to single him, but Rocket Time possesses considerable back class and merits respect coming back to a track he loves.

The fifth race features a major spot play, assuming we stay on the grass. Forge ran a strong race in his American debut last month at Keeneland, which doubled as his first race since September. He’s run up against some very tough European competition, and he faces an optional claiming group that doesn’t appear very imposing. I’ll gladly take 7/2 if I can get it, although that’s another morning line that seems very generous.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #5

R5: 1
R6: 5,7
R7: 1,6
R8: ALL

48 bets, $24

Forge starts off this sequence, and then things get tricky. Finest City and Carina Mia head this year’s Humana Distaff, which features some other strong sprinters, and I’m hoping I can skate through only going two-deep. I’m also only going two-deep in the Distaff Turf Mile following the scratch of Miss Temple City; Linda’s been working well for Ian Wilkes, and Roca Rojo goes out for Chad Brown.

This brings us to the Pat Day Mile, which gave me headaches of increasing intensity every time I looked at it. I can make cases for almost every runner in what’s now a 12-horse field, so I’m hitting the ALL button. I know I’m going to get some heat for this on Twitter, but the fact is that I have absolutely no confidence in any opinion I could present here, and given that I can come in well under my soft budget ($40) by using each runner, that’s what I’m going to do.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #9

R9: 2,4,7,10
R10: 2
R11: 2,6,8,9
R12: 5,14,15,16,17

80 bets, $40

In one of several animated Twitter discussions on Friday, I mentioned that I really like Pick Fours that act as glorified odds boosts on short-priced horses. Everyone wants to catch a big price, sure, but if you can take a heavily-bet favorite, single that horse in a Pick Four, and beat a favorite or two along the way, the sequence essentially turns into an odds boost. If said single is 4/5 and jogs after you play it to win, you won’t get much of a rate of return. However, if a $40 Pick Four ticket like this one hits and returns $300 or so, all of a sudden, you’ve turned that 4/5 into odds closer to 6-1. That’s value, and that’s my strategy here.

My single comes in the 10th race, the Churchill Downs. Masochistic burned me in his 2017 debut, but there are plenty of reasons to back him here. He’s easily the top early speed on paper, and if the track is playing to speed (as it often does on Kentucky Derby Day), he’s going to be very difficult to beat. This is not an easy sequence, and you need to single somewhere so as to spread in the other three legs. There are worse horses to do that with than a horse that could make an easy lead in a race without much other speed.

We dissected the Derby above, so I’ll go through the other two legs here. In the American Turf, I prefer closers Big Score and Good Samaritan, but if one of Oscar Performance or Conquest Farenheit gets away, they may be tough to catch. Meanwhile, in the Woodford Reserve, I most prefer Beach Patrol, although he’s no cinch in a wide-open betting race. Divisidero is 2-for-2 at Churchill, and both Bal a Bali and Enterprising (subbed in for the scratched World Approval) are good enough to win on their best days as well.

2017 Kentucky Oaks Day Pick Four Tickets/Analyses

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Here’s my approach for Kentucky Oaks Day. I’ll have several Pick Fours explained below, and my singles double as spot plays. As a heads-up, it is supposed to be a bit wet in Kentucky on Friday, and this analysis assumes that all races carded for the turf stay there. If races come off, then some of this is outdated.

Anyway, on with the show!

—

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #2

R2: 1,3,4,5,6,7
R3: 3,5
R4: 4,7,8
R5: 4

36 bets, $18

If you want to spend a few more bucks and punch the “ALL” button in the first leg, go ahead. It’s one of the best betting races on the card, and chances are you’ll want to spread in there. As far as the rest of the ticket is concerned, Elate will be heavily-favored in the second leg, but her recent money-burning pattern is a big concern and Daria’s Angel may very well be the lone speed horse in the field. Sassy Little Lila will be a heavy favorite in the third leg, but she may need a race, so I sought some more coverage there. The one favorite I have tons of confidence in is Paid Up Subscriber, who’s 3-for-3 at Churchill Downs and has the pedigree to embrace a wet track.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #4

R4: 4,7,8
R5: 4
R6: 4
R7: ALL

39 bets, $19.50

The first two legs of this Pick Four are the last two legs of the previous one, so use that analysis here. I’ll expound a bit more on my somewhat-aggressive third-leg single, which comes in the form of Honorable Duty in the Alysheba. This race has a TON of early speed signed on, and while it’s far from cheap speed, it’s safe to assume they’ll be flying early on. Honorable Duty comes in on a three-race winning streak, likes Churchill Downs, and has beaten a number of rivals he’ll face in this spot during his recent run of success. I think he’ll be tough to hold off late, and I’ll gladly take 5-1 odds if I can get them. I don’t have the same convictions about the payoff leg, but the previous legs were pretty thin, so we can afford to punch the “ALL” button and hope for a price.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #8

R8: 1,2,4,7,9,10
R9: 3,4,7,9,10,11
R10: 1
R11: 4

36 bets, $18

The first two legs of this wager are not easy. If you have deep pockets and conviction in the last two legs, going ALL-ALL may not be the worst idea in the world. Hopefully, we can get to a cold double of favorites to finish it off, but note that La Coronel (my single in the 10th) may bypass the Edgewood for the American Turf on Saturday. If she does, this ticket will be altered (and likely cost more since the race will become much more wide-open). Paradise Woods, meanwhile, looks extremely tough to beat in the Kentucky Oaks, and I’m not going to try to do that. Hopefully, one or two of our price horses connect in the opening two legs to make this pay a bit.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #10

R10: 1
R11: 4
R12: ALL
R13: 2,4,5,7,10,11

60 bets, $30

If you’re burnt out by this point, I get it. However, I think this Pick Four could provide a surprising return, even if it starts out in formful fashion. The 12th race is a complete mess, and the finale isn’t much clearer. That’s a recipe for a healthy Pick Four payoff, one that could provide a healthy boost to our Derby Day bankroll.

Santa Anita/Charles Town Pick Four Analyses: 4/22/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

SANTA ANITA

BONUS SELECTION: #2 Banze No Oeste, Race #1 (3-1)

We start off the Saturday card with a $32,000 claimer going down the hill, and Banze No Oeste has a number of things in his favor. It’s his second start off a layoff, it’s his first outing since being gelded, and he drops down in class off an effort that wasn’t so bad. He probably needed the March 4th race after a long break, and a glance at his 2016 running lines indicates plenty of affinity for this course. I think 3-1 is a very fair price, and I’ll be happy if we get it.

LATE PICK FOUR

R7: 1,2,4,7,8
R8: 1
R9: 1,2,5,9
R10: 3,5,11

60 bets, $30

This Pick Four ticket is built around the single of #1 Collected in the eighth, the Grade 2 Californian. Every other leg of this sequence is very challenging, and if you have another single elsewhere in the sequence, punching the “ALL” button in one of the other legs may not be a bad idea.

The one longshot I think you need to throw on your tickets runs in the finale. It’s #3 Red Lightning, a first-time starter from the barn of William Morey. Morey’s record with first-time starters isn’t the greatest, but the worktab shows that this son of Midshipman has plenty of speed, and that’s no accident. His dam, the Stormy Atlantic mare She Too, also threw a horse by the name of Its Me Mom, who won several stakes races at sprint distances. The presence of Kent Desormeaux is a plus, and we’re certainly getting a juicy price at 8-1 on the morning line.

CHARLES TOWN

ALL-STAKES PICK FOUR

R9: 1,2,4,9
R10: 2,4,6
R11: 1,5
R12: 5,8,9

72 bets, $36

It’s Charles Town Classic Day, and that means an ultra-challenging all-stakes Pick Four sequence. That’s reflected in the structure of this ticket, which boasts no singles. Hopefully, we can earn part of the juicy $100,000 guaranteed pool.

I wanted to single #1 Stanford in the Charles Town Classic. He’s the defending champion, and his proven ability to handle the bullring track setup is a big plus. However, I had to also use #5 Imperative, who also has a win in this race on his resume and could get an ideal setup. His owner has entered two others in this race, and both have early speed. Imperative could be in a great position to pick up the pieces late.

Pick Four Analysis: Wood Memorial, Blue Grass, Santa Anita Derby Day (4/8/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

We’ve got three Kentucky Derby prep races coming up Saturday. Last week, this space featured how to play these races on $20 budgets. However, we had a very good day with Pick Four tickets, as two of them hit (including a $6 ticket at Gulfstream that returned nearly $230!). With that in mind, I’m going to focus on Pick Four sequences at Aqueduct, Keeneland, and Santa Anita that all feature these prep races and could present some value.

AQUEDUCT

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #9

R9: 8
R10: 3,7,8
R11: 1,4,5,8
R12: 1,3,7

36 bets, $18

RATIONALE: #8 Unified will be a popular single in the opening leg, the Grade 1 Carter, and for good reason. He defeated Mind Your Biscuits in his 4-year-old debut, and that rival went on to cruise home in the Dubai Golden Shaheen. #2 Tommy Macho and #9 Ocean Knight are solid horses, but if Unified repeats or improves upon his last-out effort, he’ll be very tough to beat.

I used the logical horses in legs two and three, the Wood Memorial and the Gazelle. The only horse that will likely take money in the Wood while remaining off my ticket is #2 Mo Town, whose Remsen win has lost plenty of its luster with those he beat not doing much since then. I went four-deep in the Gazelle, and I hope that’s enough, as I’m not sold on this year’s crop of 3-year-old fillies and it seems like many of these can win.

The nightcap features my price play of the day across all three tracks. The entry of #1 Broken Engagement and #1A Super Luke will likely be favored, and #3 Build to Suit merits respect, too. However, there’s a longshot that I think you need to use. #7 Money Laundering’s pedigree doesn’t jump off the page, but he fetched a respectable $40,000 at auction last May after being bred for just $3,500. A deep dive shows that his dam is a half-sister to Hilda’s Passion, a Grade 1-winning sprinter. The workouts are solid, trainer Bruce Levine can win with first-time starters, and with the exception of Broken Engagement and maybe #5 Altesino (who’s 0-for-7 with six minor cashes, the kind of horse I HATE betting in a Pick Four sequence), the form among those that have run before isn’t anything to write home about. He’s 15-1 on the morning line, and I hope we get that price.

KEENELAND

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #7

R7: 2,3,6,7,8
R8: 4,5,6
R9: 2
R10: 2,4,7

45 bets, $22.50

RATIONALE: The fields in this sequence aren’t huge, but this Pick Four could still pay handsomely. There may not be a single prohibitive favorite in this group of races, and if you can find a spot to take a stand, I think you can create some value.

The Shakertown kicks things off, and it’s a handicapping puzzle. If you want to hit the “ALL” button, I get it (that turns the ticket into a $40.50 play), but I was able to at least throw four horses out. The Madison (the second leg) is no picnic, either, but I settled on going three-deep with horses that are in good form: #4 Constellation, #5 High Ridge Road, and #6 Paulassilverlining.

My single comes in the third leg, the Ashland. #2 Elate salvaged third in the Grade 3 Honeybee despite an absolutely awful break, and the horse that won that race, It Tiz Well, will likely be the second choice in a much tougher spot (the Santa Anita Oaks). Elate has hinted at tons of potential in her short career, and barring more adventures leaving the gate, I think she could sit a dream trip just off the early speed. If she does, I think she’ll be tough to beat.

In the Blue Grass, I used three of the four logical horses. I’m not sold on J Boys Echo, who may have trounced a weak field in the Gotham and gets a stiff class test here against some of the top 3-year-olds in the country. I’ll let him beat me if he’s good enough, and I’ll settle on #2 McCraken, #4 Tapwrit, and #7 Practical Joke.

SANTA ANITA

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #8

R8: 2,3,6,9
R9: 1
R10: 1,4,6,8 (2)
R11: 2,3,5,9,10

80 bets, $40

RATIONALE: Some Pick Fours should be treated like win bets with enhanced odds, and this is one of them. I’m going deep in three of the four legs and singling #1 Sircat Sally in the Providencia. She’ll likely be even-money, at best. However, if this Pick Four hits, I’ll likely get at least 4-1 on my money, making it a worthwhile investment.

That payoff is because the other three races are very tough. The Santa Anita Derby kicks things off, and while #9 Iliad is a nice horse and a worthy favorite, he’s no cinch. #6 American Anthem’s effort in the Rebel is a complete throw-out, and the 1-2 finishers in a March 9th allowance event, #3 Battle of Midway and #2 Reach the World, have both worked lights-out since then.

The 10th is the Echo Eddie for Cal-breds, and it’s the first of two very challenging races to close things out. #8 California Diamond is an honest horse who’s never been out of the top two in 10 career starts, but this may be the toughest field he’s faced at the state-bred level. If there are any scratches of horses I’ve used in this race, throw in #2 B Squared, a sibling to Grade 1 winner Ralis who I just didn’t have the budget to use.

As far as the 11th is concerned…good luck. We’ve got class drops, equipment switches, and jockey changes, all among a group of horses that, by and large, hasn’t shown a whole lot. There is one big price I used here. #10 Great is 20-1 on the morning line, but he takes a drop into the maiden claiming ranks for the first time and exits what seems like a very strong maiden special weight event. That race last month was his first outing since November, and improvement is certainly logical at a big price.