Pick Four

Keeneland Opening Day Late Pick Four Analysis (4/7/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Friday is Opening Day at Keeneland, and we’ve got a late Pick Four sequence that, with a little bit of luck, could pay handsomely. I won’t do this for every racing day, but for Opening Day, it’s prudent to go through the late Pick Four sequence and offer a ticket.

As with the Rainbow Six write-up from Sunday, I’ll go race-by-race and explain my rationale. Hopefully, this $36 ticket will be a more fruitful endeavor!

RACE #7: 2, 6, 7, 8, 11, 13 (12)

This is a very difficult race to decipher, and if you’ve got deep enough pockets to hit the “ALL” button, go right ahead. I’ll be using six horses in here, and hopefully that’s enough. Four are second-time starters, and that counts #13 Tweeting, who is on the also-eligible list. If there are any scratches, or if Tweeting does not draw in, replace the scratched horse with #12 Swat, who merits respect coming off the layoff for the team of Eddie Kenneally and Javier Castellano.

One horse to watch at a price in here is #2 Miss Adele, who’s been working lights-out at Payson Park in Florida. Roger Attfield hasn’t had a great year so far, but Paco Lopez hops aboard after a strong Gulfstream meet, and this one is a juicy 15-1 on the morning line.

RACE #8: 3

The first of two singles on my ticket comes in the eighth. #3 Mutaraamy is a standout by any measure in this six-furlong allowance. It’s safe to assume he’s had his issues, as this gelding will make just the fourth start of his career on Friday. However, his best race likely means a romp in this spot, and all indications are that such an effort is on the horizon.

RACE #9: 4

#4 Oscar Performance was last seen beating a number of these rivals in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. He makes his 3-year-old debut in this spot, the Grade III Transylvania, and despite the layoff, I can’t go against him. On paper, he looks like the main early speed in here, and while I respect the likes of Ticonderoga, Sonic Boom, and Big Score (all very solid turf horses in what could be a fun division to follow), any of those three would have to improve substantially to beat Oscar Performance if that one fires his best shot.

RACE #10: ALL

You may have seen this coming after the back-to-back singles. The fact is, I do not have a clue how to break down the payoff leg of this Pick Four sequence. This is a very tricky condition, featuring turf horses running on dirt, horses on the way up the class ladder, and horses dropping down. I couldn’t begin to narrow this down, but thankfully, I didn’t have to in order to come in under my soft budget of $40. I’m using them all here, and hopefully, we can sit back, relax, and get a price home to close things out.

THE TICKET

R7: 2,6,7,8,11,13 (12, in the event of a scratch)
R8: 3
R9: 4
R10: ALL

72 bets, $36

ANALYSIS: Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, and Pick Four tickets

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

FLORIDA DERBY

By many measures, #11 Gunnevera is the best horse in the race. He was a runaway winner of the Fountain of Youth, and he should have plenty of pace in front of him to set up for his late kick. However, the post position fogs things up just a bit. With such a short run to the first turn, it will be imperative for all-world jockey Javier Castellano to get inside quickly and save as much ground as possible.

As such, Gunnevera, while imposing, is no cinch, and my strategy will be to use him, but not key him. The other horse I will use heavily is #1 State of Honor, who draws very favorably given his early speed. The Mark Casse trainee ran third behind McCraken two back and second behind Tapwrit last out, so there’s back class here. I’m not quite sure we’ll get his 8-1 morning line odds, but he won’t be one of the top two choices, and if he can capitalize on Three Rules’s outside post position and get a jump on that rival, he could lead them a long way.

I will key those two horses on top of a few others in the exotics. I’m by no means in love with likely second choice #4 Always Dreaming, who has had perfect trips in his last two outings, but it’s prudent to use that one underneath as a saver. I’ll round out some of my wagers with a few longshots, one of whom is a big price. #7 Unbridled Holiday was third behind Always Dreaming in that one’s last race, but surrendered a lot of ground while racing wide that day. He’s 30-1 on the morning line and may go off a bigger price than that, but he adds blinkers, had a big work on March 25th, and could absolutely clunk up for a piece of it. Additionally, #8 Impressive Edge tries two turns for the first time after an impressive win going seven furlongs last time out. If there’s competition up front, he’ll certainly be one of the ones to benefit the most.

BETTING ON A $20(ish) BUDGET

$4 exacta box: 1,11 – $8
$1 exacta key: 1,11/1,4,7,8,11 – $8
$0.10 superfecta: 1,11/1,4,7,8,11/1,4,7,8,11/1,4,7,8,11 – $4.80

LOUISIANA DERBY

This one seems pretty formful on paper. #8 Girvin won the Risen Star by a clear margin, and he’s very much the horse to beat. The third and fourth-place finishers will try him again in this spot, as will a few new shooters.

I can only see one horse in here potentially beating your likely heavy favorite. That’s #6 Guest Suite, who was left with far too much to do in the Risen Star. He rallied to finish fourth, but seems to have come out of the race extremely well. He’s posted three excellent works for trainer Neil Howard, and it’s not illogical to think that a horse who has improved in every race to date will continue to do so.

BETTING ON A $20 BUDGET

$10 exacta box: 6,8 – $20

PICK FOUR TICKETS

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #2, Gulfstream Park

R2: 3,4,9,11,12
R3: 1,6
R4: 2,3
R5: 1,4

40 bets, $20

RATIONALE: The second at Gulfstream may be the best betting race on the card, with several class-droppers getting horrible posts. Meanwhile, I think a few longshots, specifically #3 Bella Sunrise and #4 Lover’s Key, have big shots in there. The second leg is a tough race to decipher, but #1 Capital City is very appealing if you can forgive his last-out clunker, and #6 Over the Limit cuts back to a sprint and won three in a row very recently. If the last two races are formful, I think this could be a fruitful Pick Four.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #7, Gulfstream Park

R7: 5,6
R8: 1,2,4,5,7,9
R9: 6
R10: 5

12 bets, $6

RATIONALE: I think the first leg sets up for a stone closer, and my top pick is actually #6 The Truth or Else, who sits at a square 10-1 on the morning line. If you toss out his two-turn races, which are mostly duds, you’re left with a horse that stacks up much more favorably than what his standing will likely be on the tote board. I’m spreading in the eighth (if you want to spend a few extra bucks and hit the “ALL” button, go ahead), and I’m finishing with two popular singles. #6 Luke’s Alley goes in allowance company in the ninth, while #5 Celestine looms large in the 10th given her talent and likely nature as the race’s lone speed. It may not pay much, but if we get some value in the first two legs, I think the payoff could surprise you.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #8, Fair Grounds

R8: ALL
R9: 1,6,8,11
R10: 6
R11: 6,8

80 bets, $40

RATIONALE: I’m maxing out my usual $40 budget here, because the first two races are TOUGH. There are 10 runners in the New Orleans, and I could make a convincing case for seven or eight of them. The Muniz Memorial Handicap is no joke, either, and while I like #8 Kasaqui a fair bit, there are others there you need to use that have ample experience over this turf course (plus 15-1 shot #11 Special Ops, since his last two races have been excellent and he should be flying late). I’ll single #6 Farrell in the Fair Grounds Oaks, and I’ll use my top two in the Louisiana Derby to finish things out.