Pick Four

Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Belmont and Keeneland (10/21/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

We’re two weeks away from the Breeders’ Cup, and Saturday’s cards at Belmont and Keeneland provide ample opportunities to build one’s bankroll. Belmont has a showcase day for New York-breds, while Keeneland’s slate is headlined by the Grade 2 Raven Run. I’ve got a pair of multi-race exotics tickets at each track, and I’ll analyze them below!

BELMONT PARK

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 2,3,4,7
R2: 4
R3: 1,3,6
R4: 3,5,8
R5: 3,4

72 Bets, $36

We start off with what I think is the most wide-open race of the sequence. #7 APPEALING BRIEFS will probably be favored, but he’s 0-for-9 and has had many chances. I want coverage, and I’ll get it with three horses towards the inside. I’m most intrigued by #3 GRAND VALOUR, who never had a chance last time out given the early fractions and should improve with a faster pace.

My single comes in the second, which doubles as the first stakes race of the day. This is the Maid of the Mist, and I think #4 PURE SILVER will be very difficult to beat. She was 3-for-3 before getting into a suicidal speed duel with eventual Grade 1 Frizette winner Separationofpowers in the Spinaway. She’s clearly the fastest horse out of the gate, and if she gets an easy lead, she’ll be tough to run down.

I’m using the three logical horses in the Iroquois. #6 COZZY SPRING was the last horse I threw into the wager, simply because I needed to be covered in case she proves quickest out of the gate. I’m also going to use the two likely betting favorites in the Ticonderoga. #5 FIFTY FIVE gets significant class relief, and #8 TIZZELLE has never run a bad race, but I also want to make sure I use #3 BROKEN BORDER. She’s won four of her last five starts, all at Belmont, and her lone defeat came in a two-turn race against open company that did not set up for her late kick. 12-1 is way too big a price, especially if there’s a pace meltdown.

I’ll hope to close this out by going two-deep in the payoff leg, the Empire Classic. #3 TWISTED TOM will likely be favored and should probably win, but #4 CONTROL GROUP has won three in a row and will be prominent early in a race that doesn’t appear to have much early speed.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #8

R8: 3,8
R9: 2,5,7
R10: 1,4,5,6,8
R11: 3,8,9

90 Bets, $45

To say this sequence isn’t easy would be an understatement. I usually don’t like to put $45 tickets out there, and this ticket doesn’t have a single, but if you’re playing it, this is how I’d advise doing so.

I’ll kick it off by using the two likely choices in the Hudson. #8 T LOVES A FIGHT and #3 WEEKEND HIDEAWAY ran 1-2 in an allowance two back in Saratoga, and those two appear toughest in this spot. If you’ve got deeper pockets, you may want to throw in #5 CELTIC CHAOS, but I didn’t have the budget to do so.

I’ll go three-deep in the Mohawk. #5 OFFERING PLAN and #7 BLACK TIDE will take money, but I also need to use #2 NEVISIAN SKY, a stablemate of Offering Plan who should be flying late. He’ll be a much bigger price compared to that one, and Black Tide’s presence assures a legitimate pace.

I’m five-deep in the Empire Distaff, and this is the most puzzling race in a very puzzling sequence. Two longshots intrigue me in a race where I’m not sold on any of the favorites. #5 NO HAYNE NO GAYNE took a big step forward in her first start off a layoff earlier this month, while #6 BONITA BIANCA loves Belmont and has never run a bad race. Both are 10-1 and provide real value.

Finally, I’ll go three-deep to finish it out. #9 LULU’S POM POM was the victim of, shall we say, a questionable DQ last time out at Saratoga. She likely wins with a similar effort, but two intriguing prices merit consideration. #3 COSMOISELLE is a first-time starter bred up and down for the turf, while #8 SPA TREATMENT has run OK in two turf sprints and maintains rider Javier Castellano.

KEENELAND

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #2

R2: 1,8
R3: 1,5,7
R4: 5,7
R5: 1,2,5,10,11

60 Bets, $30

I found this sequence pretty challenging, especially given the payoff leg. With a little luck, we’ll get a price home along the way to make this pay a bit.

I’m going two-deep in the kickoff leg. #1 JEANNE’S SPEIGHT makes her first start for new trainer Robertino Diodoro, while #8 HONOR’S PARADE was claimed last out by Tom Amoss, who cuts this daughter of Parading back to a sprint (which should be a more agreeable route).

The third is a tough optional claimer with several stakes-quality horses. My top pick is #7 CONQUEST WINDYCITY due to his affinity for Keeneland, but his recent form indicates he may be headed the wrong way. As such, I’ll also use likely favorite #5 SEEKING THE SOUL and #1 SOCIETY BEAU, who returns to dirt and was an impressive allowance winner here in the spring.

The fourth features the shortest price in the sequence. #7 KIRBY’S PENNY has won four of her last five and will be a heavy favorite. I’m using her, but this spot represents a sizable step up in class, and I don’t think she’s a cinch. #5 CHINA GROVE, meanwhile, drops in class after spending most of her career knocking heads with stakes-quality opposition. She won a stakes race at this distance earlier in the year, and trainer Ben Colebrook has enjoyed a strong meet to this point.

We finish things off with a grass grab bag, and I needed to spread here. The most intriguing price of the five I used (to me, at least) is #2 MOUNTAIN MOMMA, who’s shown ample early speed in three starts at Arlington. Keeneland’s turf course is kind to early speed in route races, and Florent Geroux’s ridden very well here this fall. Having said that, while I think she’s a must-use at her 8-1 price, she’s certainly not a standout, and my advice is to go as deep as you can.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #7

R7: 2,7 (9)
R8: 2,3,9,13,14
R9: 3,4,7,9
R10: 4,5

80 Bets, $40*

See that asterisk? That’s because my ticket, as constructed, uses two also-eligibles in the second leg. If one or both fails to draw in, or if they draw in because one or two of my other three horses in that leg scratches, add #9 AMERICA’S TALE in the first leg.

That first leg is a confounding maiden race. I took a bit of a stand by going two-deep, and one horse I used is a big price. #7 ELUSIVE TRUTH ran well in her debut and should step forward, but #2 PRINCESSOF THE NYL outran her odds when third at 45-1 in her unveiling last month. Jack Van Berg has saddled a few winners this meet, and 15-1 seems like too big a price on a well-meant second-time starter from that barn.

The eighth is a turf sprint, and the key to this ticket’s construction is if the AE’s draw in. I think both #13 EILA and #14 MONAVISTA CROSSING are contenders, and if they get into the race, I need to have them on my ticket. I’ll also use three logical contenders. #2 CHERRY LODGE has speed, #3 SPELLKER won at this route in the spring, and #9 SMILING CAUSEWAY has never finished out of the exacta in five career starts.

The third leg is the Grade 2 Raven Run, and I’m four-deep, with my top pick being a big price. That’s #3 PINCH HIT, who has shown versatility in a strong 2017 campaign. She won the Dogwood last time out at this distance, and it’s a plus that she can win while rating or while being on or close to the lead. I’ll also use #4 NONNA MELA, #7 TEQUILITA, and #9 CLASSY TUNE, all of whom will take some play at the windows.

I’ll go two-deep to finish off the ticket. #4 FREEDOM seems like the lone speed on paper, and over a course that’s kind to such a running style, that’s a big plus. I’ll also use #5 HALLIE BELLE, who came off the bench running last time out at Laurel. She’s run pretty well in two career starts, and Saturday could be graduation day with another step forward.

Delta Downs Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: 10/18/17 (Opening Night)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Wednesday is opening night at Delta Downs, one of my favorite tracks. The fields are usually pretty large, the multi-race exotics pools are solid, and on top of that, track announcer Don Stevens is one of the nicest, most versatile people in racing. I drafted him in the first-ever fantasy simulcast team draft for a reason (hi, Don!).

I’ve put together a pair of Pick Four tickets for the card, and I found both sequences pretty tricky. That said, here’s how I’ll play them!

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #1

R1: 6
R2: ALL
R3: 3,4
R4: 1,5,8

60 Bets, $30

We start off with a single, and it’s not the type of single I usually play. #6 TAPSTER is 0-for-14 lifetime coming into this maiden race, but he’s been running against high-quality opposition for most of his career. His running lines are dotted with the names of several stakes horses, and he makes his first start for Karl Broberg, who’s one of the best in the game with new acquisitions. It’s a “hold your nose” single for me in some ways, but given the coverage I needed elsewhere, that’s the way things shook out.

Speaking of coverage, you’ll see that I’ve bought the second race, and for good reason. It’s a non-winners-of-two claimer, the type of race good friend Kurt Hoover refers to as “evil.” I did the math, and the 10 runners in the body of the field have lost a combined total of 206 races (if you want to add the two AE’s in there, that number rises to 237). I don’t have a clue who wins here, and hopefully, we get a price home to justify punching the “ALL” button.

I’m two-deep in the third. #3 LIBA looks strong for Broberg after winning first off the claim at Louisiana Downs, while #4 BEST GUESS has shown an affinity for Delta Downs and drops in class after two failed tries against allowance foes. Those two make the most sense to me in another race that’s drawn a full field of 10.

I’ll finish by going three-deep in a competitive claiming event. #5 COUCHE COUCHE figures to be favored, but he’s 0-for-3 at Delta and hasn’t won in a year and a half, so he’s no cinch. I want coverage, and I’ve found it with likely second choice #8 KEYSTONES STRIKE and live 8-1 shot #1 BLUE FORTY TWO, who’s notched three of his four career wins at Delta and gets top local rider Gerard Melancon. If you want to go even deeper, feel free. This isn’t an easy race, but I wanted to keep costs down a bit, so I settled on those three.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #7

R7: 1,2,3
R8: 1,3,6,7
R9: 2,4,8
R10: 6,7

72 Bets, $36

Before we dive in, it’s worth noting that there’s a 50-cent Pick Five starting in the sixth. If you’re playing that, I think 8-1 shot #6 MISS SID N SAY is a must-use. She’s won her last two dirt starts in runaways, likes Delta, and will be a square price against what I think is a vulnerable favorite (#8 OH DEAR LORD is 0-for-her-last-10, and 3-2 is just too short to take against what turned out to be a solid field for the level).

Moving on, the late Pick Four starts with a pair of wide-open races. I’m three-deep in the seventh and four-deep in the eighth, and I hope that’s deep enough. I honestly can’t tell you who’ll be favored in each of those races, and if you’ve got deeper pockets or an additional single elsewhere, hitting the “ALL” button once or twice may not be a bad strategy.

The ninth features the latest matchup in a cool little rivalry. #2 I HOPE and #8 SOUTHERN WIND have locked up several times, and I’m using both horses. However, neither is my top pick. I don’t think there’s a ton of early speed signed on, so my focus is on #4 IDE STANG YOU, who’s got one way of going. She’ll be flying out of the gate and figures to lead them as long as she can, which could be a while if nobody attempts to go with her.

I had to alter my ticket considerably following the scratch of #8 DARYLSLITTLEENGINE in the tenth. He was a single for me, so I took a horse out of the first leg on my original ticket and settled for going two-deep in the finale. I’ll use #6 WHERE’S CAIN (who’s done some of his best running at Delta) and #7 UNITAS (who could sit a perfect stalking trip just off the speed).

Woodbine Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Canadian International, E.P. Taylor Day (10/15/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Sunday is Canadian International Day at Woodbine, and while that turf marathon and its sister race, the E.P. Taylor, aren’t quite as big as they were a generation ago, the two Grade 1 affairs headline a stacked card with plenty of wagering opportunities. Longtime readers of mine know I’m a sucker for the 20-cent minimum bets on multi-race wagers, and I’ve got three such tickets ahead of Sunday’s card. Let’s get to it!

$0.20 Pick Five: Race #2

R2: 3,4,8,9
R3: 10
R4: 4,5,9
R5: 2,7,8,9
R6: 1,2,7

144 Bets, $28.80

The first of my three tickets comes in the early Pick Five. My strategy is to spread around one key single, which doubles as my best bet of the day.

We’ll start off in the second race, a tricky maiden claiming event. The two favorites, #3 RELEASETHE GLACKEN and #4 CRIMSON RING, both have major questions to answer. The former ran well last time out but doesn’t have much of a resume to speak of other than that effort, while the latter was bet against better horses last month and didn’t run a jump. I’ll use both, and I’m also going to throw in #8 LAILAS PRINCESS and #9 SHEEGWEEHA. Lailas Princess has a few sharp efforts sprinting on synthetic at this level, while Sheegweeha has improved in every start and could benefit from the outside draw.

My best bet of the day comes in the third race. This is a maiden race for 2-year-olds, and I’m all-in on #10 WHERE’S ANTHONY, who had a lot go wrong in his debut last month. He broke slowly and encountered plenty of traffic, but he still rallied to finish third, beaten less than three lengths. Improvement is logical at second asking, especially for a barn whose recent numbers with second-time starters are strong. Per DRF Formulator, trainer Scott Fairlie is 3-for-11 over the past two years with such runners, and if you only include races contested on the synthetic track, that number goes to 3-for-9. Long story short: If Where’s Anthony doesn’t win, I lose.

I’m chalk-heavy in the fourth race. #4 GIADA VEGAS will likely be favored, but she’s a type that finds ways to lose. I have to use her, but I’m also using #5 YOU’RE MINE and #9 SNIPPY. The former has run well three times for a strong local barn, while the latter took a big step forward at second asking and should be prominent early.

The fifth race is a maiden event for 2-year-old fillies, and I’m going pretty deep. #2 EESTI STAR and #8 MAXIXE will both take money, but their trainers’ horses often need a race or two to get going, so I wanted coverage. I found it with #7 LADY WITH CLASS and #9 SWEET SILENT SOUL. Lady With Class has two OK races to her credit, while Sweet Silent Soul goes out for a barn on a recent hot streak and could benefit from the outside draw.

If we’re still alive, we’ll look to score by going three-deep in the sixth. This is the Grade 2 Nearctic, and it’s drawn an interesting field of turf sprinters. It’s another race where I’m chalk-heavy. #7 COTAI GLORY is a European getting Lasix for the first time and is probably the one to beat, but #1 DOWSE’S BEACH and #2 WHITE FLAG are both in strong form and could win with their best efforts.

$0.20 Pick Four: Race #4

R4: 4,5,9
R5: 2,7,8,9
R6: 1,2,7
R7: 2,8

72 Bets, $14.40

The first three legs of the early Pick Four are the same as the last three legs of the early Pick Five. I’ll finish this wager off by using both fillies entered in the Grade 3 Ontario Derby. #8 HOLY HELENA returns to her preferred synthetic surface, on which she won this year’s Queen’s Plate, while #2 GRIZZEL has run up against some very good horses and is 2-for-2 on Woodbine’s synthetic footing. I think one of them beats the boys, and hopefully, we’re cashing after it happens.

$0.20 Pick Four: Race #9

R9: 3,4,6,8
R10: 4,8,9,10
R11: 4,9,10
R12: 5,8,11

144 Bets, $28.80

There’s also a late Pick Five wager that starts in the eighth, but in all honesty, I couldn’t put together a ticket that I felt comfortable playing. That race is not easy, and I couldn’t narrow down the rest of the ticket. As such, I’ll bypass that wager for this one, which boasts a guaranteed pool of $250,000.

As you can see, I’ve got plenty of coverage in all four legs, and the opening leg, the Grade 1 E.P. Taylor, may be the most wide-open race on the entire card. #6 NEZWAAH and #8 BLOND ME both have big chances coming over from Europe, and if the former runs back to her Group 1 score two back, she probably wins. However, #3 QUIDURA and #4 RAINHA DA BATERIA both love this turf course, and I need to use them. The latter seems like a big overlay at 10-1 on the morning line, especially since she hasn’t run a bad race in her last six starts, three of which came at the Grade 1 level. However, I’m against #7 RAIN GODDESS, who will likely take money shipping in for Aidan O’Brien. Her Timeform numbers simply don’t stack up to the Euros that will surround her in the starting gate, and I’ve spread elsewhere, so I’ll try to beat her (even though it wouldn’t be stunning if she went off favored in this race).

The 10th race is the Canadian International, and this is another event where the European contingent looks tough. I’m using all three of them: #4 IDAHO, #9 ERUPT, and #10 CHEMICAL CHANGE, who may be underbet despite running pretty much the exact same race every time out and getting Lasix for the first time. I’ll also throw in #8 MESSI, who was very unlucky in the Grade 1 Northern Dancer. He could’ve won that race with a better trip, and I’ll give him one more shot.

I’m three-deep in each of the last two races, and I’m using a few prices. My top pick in the 11th is #10 SEVENCOMINGOUT, who tried tougher company last time out after a solid debut. He’s back at the right level and will be tough if he runs back to the September 16th effort. I’m using #4 THIRD MAN IN as well, although he’s developing a habit of collecting smaller checks. Most notably, though, I’m throwing in #9 RASTA MAN, who’s been off a while but has been working well and has a few previous efforts that would fit in with this group. He’s 20-1 on the morning line, and that could be a knockout horse in this sequence.

We’ll finish with a claiming event going seven furlongs, and while I’m using one of the likely favorites, I’m also throwing in two big prices. #8 INCREDIBLE DEE has run well in each of his past two starts at this level and route, but his lone win came with a perfect trip, so he’s no cinch. Meanwhile, #5 WILSHIRE STAR (15-1) and #11 SPANISH EXPRESS (20-1) were must-uses for me, especially at their likely prices. Wilshire Star has run his best races at this route, while Spanish Express is an example of one of my favorite angles, the “toss two” theory. That occurs when a horse runs a bad race, goes to the sidelines, and needs his return race as a tightener. If you go back to the races he ran in May of this year, Spanish Express more than fits here, and he could be a massive price on the tote board.

Santa Anita Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: 10/9/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Since it’s a day off for me and I’ve recovered from a brief bout with the Arkansas Flu (given to me by one of two visiting friends who crashed at my humble Los Angeles abode this past week), I’ve opted to take a ride inland to Santa Anita for their special Monday program (plus dollar sodas and hot dogs!). As such, I’ve written up a few multi-race tickets for those of you playing the races in Arcadia, and here they are!

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 10
R2: 2,7,8
R3: 4,7
R4: 1,4,6,8
R5: 5,6,7,9

96 Bets, $48

This is a very tough Pick Five, and if you’re playing on any sort of a budget, you need to take a stand somewhere. I opted to do so right off the bat in the opener, a $25,000 claimer on the turf. #10 CURLY’S WATERFRONT showed some real talent as a 2-year-old, when he ran fourth in a pair of stakes races. I’m not holding his most recent race against him, as that came off a long layoff going shorter than he probably wants. He drops down in class, and I think he’ll take a sizable step forward.

The second leg is a $12,500 claimer on the dirt, and your likely favorite, #7 STIR FRY, hasn’t run in more than a year. She could win, but I needed coverage elsewhere. #2 BESIDES THE POINT comes back to dirt and drops down in class, while #8 FLOWER HEART DEER ran pretty well two back and gets reacquainted with Evin Roman.

I took a stand in the third against horses coming out of the September 1st race at Del Mar. That was a very slow race, and I just don’t want any part of the ones who ran in it. #4 BOSS MOVE and #7 TWISTED ROSIE were both impressive second-out winners, and this doesn’t seem like an imposing spot in which to try winners for the first time, so I’ll use them both.

I’m four-deep in each of the last two legs, neither of which are easy to handicap. #8 ZURI CHOP will probably be favored in the fourth, but he’s 0-for-11 at Santa Anita, including many tries at this level. I’ll use him, but am by no means confident (especially at his likely price). My top pick is #4 TAIMA THE HAWK, who has several strong races down the hill against higher-class opponents. 8-1 is a very square price on a horse like that, and I think he’s got a big shot. I’ll also throw in #1 YES YES YES and #6 AMERICAN LEAGUE, both of whom have also shown ability coming down the hill.

We finish with a wide-open 2-year-old race. #7 PADDOCK PICK was beaten less than three lengths in a live race at Del Mar and may go favored, but this isn’t an easy spot. Fellow second-time starter #9 SPANISH BAY is bred to be a good one and should improve at second asking, while #5 TALENT SCOUT is a Bob Baffert firster with a good work tab and #6 BEER TAP has too many flashy drills at Santa Anita and San Luis Rey to be 12-1. I think this sequence has the potential to pay very well, and hopefully, we can get this $48 ticket home.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 1,6,8
R7: 2,6,9,11
R8: 5
R9: 3,4,5,10,11,12,13

84 Bets, $42

This ticket likely won’t cost the full $42, given that #13 GOODTHINGSTAKETIME is an also-eligible in the ninth and needs luck to draw in (if she does, chances are it’s because another horse we used scratched). That said, my thinking here is to build around my best bet of the day, which comes in the eighth.

I’ll start by going three-deep in the Zuma Beach. #6 COUNT ALEXANDER is my top pick coming down from Woodbine, where he chased a very talented horse (Untamed Domain) that will take money in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. He was beaten just two lengths that day and merits respect here. I’ll also use #1 RESTRAINEDVENGEANCE, who freaked last time out for Val Brinkerhoff, and #8 MY BOY JACK, who ran into Encumbered twice and gets the services of Kent Desormeaux in this spot.

I’m four-deep in the seventh, a tricky maiden claimer. #11 WILLOWS BABE may be favored adding blinkers for Richard Baltas, but it isn’t like she’s set the world on fire to this point, so I want coverage. I’ll get that with #2 INNYMINNIEMINEYMOE, #6 FLY AS A FALCON, and #9 DREAM PROOF, the last of which is a big price. She showed significant zip last time out in her second start, drops down in class, and figures to be prominent early.

My best bet of the day, as mentioned, comes in the eighth, where I will be stunned if we get 5-1 odds on #5 VIBE. At first glance, his 4-for-13 record doesn’t look exceptional. However, if you focus solely on dirt route races, he’s 4-for-8, and one of those losses came in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby, where he had no business running against the likes of Irap and Girvin. He loves Santa Anita, beat slightly-higher-level competition last time out, and looks like the one to beat if he runs his usual race in this spot. Here’s hoping we get the morning line price, but 5/2 or 3-1 is probably more accurate.

If you’ve got a bigger budget than I do, you may want to punch the “ALL” button in the Surfer Girl, which doubles as the Monday finale. I’m going at least six-deep, maybe seven-deep if the aforementioned #13 GOODTHINGSTAKETIME draws in. My top pick, though, is the other Leonard Powell trainee, #11 FATALE BERE. She flashed plenty of talent in three starts overseas and chased a very good filly named Mission Impassible last time out in a one-mile stakes race. The post position isn’t ideal, but she gets Lasix for the first time and would be tough if she brings her European form to the Santa Anita turf course. That said, I have very little conviction in this race, and my advice is to go as deep as you can.

Keeneland Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: 10/7/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

It’s opening weekend at Keeneland, and there are plenty of reasons to be excited. Saturday’s card boasts five consecutive stakes races, as well as some compelling undercard events, and I’ll have three different multi-race tickets to go through.

One quick note before we get started. As you may know, I’ve put together a survey asking for feedback on AndrewChampagne.com, as well as thoughts on a few ideas I’ve got going forward to continue to make this site a resource for handicappers. If you haven’t taken it yet, it only takes a few minutes, and it’s located here.

Anyway, on with the show, starting with the early Pick Four!

– – – – –

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #2

R2: ALL
R3: 1
R4: 2,4,5,7,8
R5: 1,8

50 Bets, $25

Our first horizontal wager begins with a race where, to be honest, I did not have a clue. I think any of the five fillies and mares signed on could win, and analyzing races on the Beard course is not one of my strengths. I’m using them all, and hopefully we get a bit of a price home.

My convictions are much stronger in the third race, which features the debut of a highly-touted 2-year-old. That’s #1 CONQUISTADOR, who fetched $2.45 million at auction earlier this year and has been working lights-out for trainer Mark Casse. Casse and jockey Julien Leparoux are riding high after three wins on Friday, and I don’t think the rest of this field is any great shakes. I’ll single this son of Tiznow, and I’ll be very surprised if we get close to his 3-1 morning line odds (6/5 or 7/5 is probably more likely).

Things get tougher again in the fourth, another 2-year-old race and one that boasts a full field going two turns. I’m five-deep, and while #8 TIZ MISCHIEF merits respect, that was a pretty sizable leap forward from start one to start two, and there could be a bounce coming. I want coverage, and that includes 15-1 shot #4 MEISTERMIND, a half to Mine That Bird and Dullahan who dumped the jockey in his debut. I’m not holding that against him, and if this son of Bodemeister runs to his pedigree, that price is a major overlay.

This sequence ends with the first stakes race of the day. It’s the Grade 2 Woodford going 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf, and I’m two-deep. #8 HOGY may be better than ever, but it’s tough to back one-run closers in these events, and my top pick is #1 CONQUEST PANTHERA. He was seventh in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile last time out, but finished just two lengths back of runner-up Lancaster Bomber. His best races have come going sprint distances, and I think he could sit an ideal trip just off the early speed.

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #5

R5: 1,3,8
R6: 4
R7: 3,4,6
R8: 2,7,9
R9: 3,10,14

81 Bets, $40.50

There’s a $250,000 guaranteed pool for this wager, so I’ve put a ticket together. It’s built around a horse that will likely be the shortest price of the day, but if we get some prices home around that one, we could score for some serious money.

I added #3 COMMEND in the first leg, which doubles as the payoff leg of the early Pick Four. I’m not sold by either of his wins this year, but he did make Hogy work at Kentucky Downs last time out, so I threw him in here for the sake of coverage. I can afford to do that because I think #4 FINLEY’SLUCKYCHARM will be exceptionally tough to beat in the sixth, the Grade 2 TCA. She’s done very little wrong around one turn, and if she doesn’t win, many tickets will go up in smoke (mine included).

The seventh is the Grade 1 First Lady, and I’m using the three logical horses. #3 DONA BRUJA has been very good since coming to the U.S., and she ran a strong second in the Grade 1 Beverly D. going longer. I think she’ll relish the cutback in distance, but in case she doesn’t, I’ve also got #4 ROCA ROJO and #6 DICKINSON on my ticket. Of those two, I prefer the latter, as the former seems to find trouble more often than I’d like.

The eighth is the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity, and this is a tough race. I’m taking the stance that the Grade 1 Hopeful is a legitimate race, so I’m using the 2-3 finishers from that event. However, my top pick is #2 EZMOSH, who’s gotten better with each start and graduated with a pretty fast win at Churchill Downs. The inside draw should help him going into the first turn, and the presence of Javier Castellano doesn’t hurt, either.

We’ll look to finish things off in the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile. I’m going deeper on my Pick Four, but I’m using my three top horses here. #10 HEART TO HEART is my top pick and will be tough if he gets loose on the lead. Having said that, I’m also using a few longshots on this ticket. #3 SUEDOIS has spent most of the last two years running against high-level European competition and gets Lasix for the first time, all of which makes him very appealing at 15-1. Add in that his jockey probably had his choice between this one and #7 MONDIALISTE, and you’ve got a genuinely live horse. Another live one is #14 AMERICAN PATRIOT, who won the Grade 1 Maker’s 46 Mile here earlier this year. His trip to Ascot didn’t go well, and his last-out effort was a clunker, but I think both races are throw-outs. Some Americans just don’t like Ascot, and the turf course at Saratoga was a bog the day of the Grade 1 Fourstardave. Despite the horrible post, I’ll give him another shot at a juicy price.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 4
R7: 3,4,6
R8: 2,3,4,7,9
R9: 3,6,8,10,14

75 Bets, $37.50

The first two legs of my late Pick Four are the same as the second and third legs of the Pick Four. I opted to go deeper in the last two legs, throwing in two additional horses in the Breeders’ Futurity and Shadwell Turf Mile.

I have some reservations about #3 LONE SAILOR and #4 TEN CITY, but both figure to be prices in the third leg. Even though the race was rained off the turf, Lone Sailor ran a smashing race to graduate at Saratoga, and Ten City ran two very good races earlier in the year. His longer races have been just so-so, but there’s a chance he recaptures that form in this spot, and I need to have him on this ticket because of it.

I’ll also add in #6 BALLAGH ROCKS and #8 MISS TEMPLE CITY in the Shadwell. The former was beaten just a half-length at this route in the Maker’s 46 Mile and ran well in each of his last two starts, while the latter won this race last year and certainly has an affinity for this track (even though she may not be the same horse she was a year or two ago).