The 2022 Breeders’ Cup is upon us. We’re on to the Saturday program, which boasts 12 races in total and nine that fall under the Breeders’ Cup umbrella.

In addition to my analysis down below, I’ve been fortunate to be part of some awesome shows and podcasts leading up to the Breeders’ Cup. You’ll find those videos embedded below, and links to podcasts will be there as well.

That’s What G Said: Distaff

Alright, time for a huge block of text. As I did last year, I’ll spend more time and energy on races where I have strong opinions (me blabbering on and on in races where I don’t feel strongly about any particular runner doesn’t help anybody). Let’s get to it!

RACE #1: We start bright and early, with a seven-furlong maiden race scheduled for 10:30 am Eastern (7:30 for those of us on the west coast). Thankfully, there’s something worth waking up for, because I like a horse that shouldn’t be favored.

#12 REAGAN ran very well in his debut. He was beaten just a neck that day, and while that day’s winner didn’t run well against winners Friday, I still think this one is very live. Seven furlongs is a tough distance to debut at, and in addition to having an experience edge on most of this group, Reagan also draws a cushy outside post in this 13-horse field. Add in a significant rider switch to Luis Saez, and I think there’s lots of plusses here.

#4 ARABIAN KNIGHT and #10 EXPECT MORE may have talent. However, I like Reagan on top, and I think he may drift up from his 4-1 morning line price.

RACE #2: I can’t see this optional claimer as anything more than a two-horse race. #2 NAKATOMI and #3 MESSIER look significantly faster than the rest of the field. I sincerely hope the morning line odds hold up, though my guess is the respective 9/2 and 4-1 prices will come down.

RACE #3: The first Breeders’ Cup race of the day is the Filly and Mare Sprint. Last year’s renewal was very good for me, as #4 CE CE came rolling home to ensure a very good day. I think this year’s edition goes a bit differently, but I still like a closer on top.

#7 OBLIGATORY has one way of going. She wants to drop back behind a fast pace and come flying late. She had significant traffic problems in the Grade 1 Ballerina, ones the running line doesn’t adequately explain. There’s a lot of speed in this race, and I think it sets up very well for what Obligatory wants to do.

#8 GOODNIGHT OLIVE is the 3-1 morning line choice. She makes some sense, as does #13 ECHO ZULU. Those two and Obligatory are the ones I’ll primarily be leaning on.

RACE #4: The Turf Sprint features #8 GOLDEN PAL, who has never lost a North American turf race. I don’t think he’s a cinch, but he does hit me as this race’s most likely winner.

I can’t get too crazy with any alternatives. The only one that intrigues me at all is #11 CASA CREED, and he’ll be on a few saver tickets in case someone goes with Golden Pal and sets things up for a deep closer. However, I’d like him more at six or seven furlongs than this 5 1/2-furlong distance.

RACE #5: This one hurts. I didn’t just like #6 LAUREL RIVER in the Dirt Mile. I loved Laurel River and saw him as a single. That one scratching Friday morning was a stomach punch, and it forced a complete re-evaluation of this race.

I don’t think #5 GUNITE wants to go two turns, so I’m playing against him. #7 CODY’S WISH isn’t totally illogical, but he’ll be a very short price and he’s another that sure seems more effective going one turn. #9 CYBERKNIFE, meanwhile, will take money, but while his best is good enough to win this, it’s fair to wonder if he peaked over the summer.

With that in mind, I’ll take a shot with #3 PIPELINE. He seems like the main speed in this race, and he went toe-to-toe with Jackie’s Warrior in the Grade 1 Forego last time out. I think he’ll be able to sit an easier trip in here, where there isn’t quite as much early zip on paper. Pipeline is 8-1 on the morning line, and that hits me as the best value in the field.

RACE #6: European runners dominated Friday’s turf races, and I think that trend continues Saturday. They’ve got the top three contenders in the Filly and Mare Turf, and I can’t get past that trio.

#3 NASHWA, #4 ABOVE THE CURVE, and #5 TUESDAY are all good enough to win this on their best day. Given that War Like Goddess’s connections opted to go against boys, the North American contingent just doesn’t hit me as a strong one.

RACE #7: First things first, if #9 JACKIE’S WARRIOR runs his best race, he almost certainly does not lose. However, there’s a bonkers price I’ll also be using, just in case he either misfires or gets caught up in a speed duel early on.

I think #3 O BESOS has been a sprinter all along. His connections ran him in the 2021 Kentucky Derby, but three of his four wins have come at sprint distances. That includes a last-out score in an optional claimer at Churchill Downs, which was his first start since April. I think he’s sitting on a career-best race, and if you’re looking for another horse to use in exotics or contests, O Besos hits me as a logical price play.

RACE #8: Another turf race, another where the European runners loom large. However, while I respect #4 MODERN GAMES and will be using him, I like another Euro on top at a slightly bigger price.

#3 DREAMLOPER was excellent in a Group 1 romp last time out. The two starts before that weren’t great, but I think the distance of those races wasn’t to his liking. It’s possible he’s just not a 10-furlong horse, and he certainly stepped forward in a big way when he was cut back to a mile at Longchamp. A repeat of that performance would make him very, very tough in this spot.

A few American runners are intriguing underneath. #6 IVAR should get a pace to close into, and #8 REGAL GLORY is as consistent as they come. Having said that, most of my multi-race tickets will revolve around Dreamloper and Modern Games.

RACE #9: The Breeders’ Cup Distaff came up a bit short on quantity, but not at all short on quality. In addition, I think it’s a fun betting race because I believe #6 NEST is an underlay. She can win, but her figures don’t tower over a very strong bunch of older fillies and mares, and I feel like she’ll be overbet.

I much prefer both #1 MALATHAAT and #4 CLAIRIERE. The former is 3-for-3 at Keeneland, the latter’s last-out effort is too poor to be true, and both should benefit from a race that has some early speed in it. Add in that neither runner is likely to be favored, and my interest gets piqued even more.

I’ll also throw in #7 SEARCH RESULTS on some of my tickets. I think she may sit a dream stalking trip behind #8 SOCIETY, and she may be the one they have to run down late.

RACE #10: More turf races, more Euros. The Breeders’ Cup Turf, naturally, has an international feel to it, and while I respect #2 WAR LIKE GODDESS, I think she’ll be up against it a bit against some of Europe’s highest-class runners.

I’ll be using #4 BROOME, #7 NATION’S PRIDE, and #11 MISHRIFF. Broome did everything but win this race a season ago when he was a tough-luck second behind Yibir. Like last year, he comes in off a misfire in the Arc de Triomphe, but he’ll get firmer ground, which he should appreciate. Also like last year, he figures to be a square price, which only adds to his appeal.

If you’re going to back an American runner, I’d recommend taking a look at #9 GOLD PHOENIX. This is a significant class hike, to be sure, but he had plenty of trouble early on last time out and was beaten just a neck despite having to rate well behind a modest pace. Flavien Prat had options, but he lands here, and that’s always a good sign.

RACE #11: Don’t get cute. Single #4 FLIGHTLINE and move on.

RACE #12: Yes, there’s a race after the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and it’s a fun one. #4 DALIKA and #5 SHANTISARA headline the Fall Harvest, and I prefer the former, who may not be favored despite coming in off of back-to-back graded stakes wins. She tailed off a bit late last year, but Al Stall has her going in the right direction. If the 7/2 morning line odds hold, that may be enough to entice a win bet.

The 2022 Breeders’ Cup is upon us. The two-day event starts Friday at Keeneland, with five races for 2-year-olds and an intriguing undercard that also offers plenty of wagering opportunities.

In addition to my analysis down below, I’ve been fortunate to be part of some awesome shows and podcasts leading up to the Breeders’ Cup. You’ll find those videos embedded below, and links to podcasts will be there as well.

That’s What G Said: Juvenile Fillies Turf

Alright, time for a huge block of text. As I did last year, I’ll spend more time and energy on races where I have strong opinions (me blabbering on and on in races where I don’t feel strongly about any particular runner doesn’t help anybody). Let’s get to it!

RACE #1: I’m not crazy about the post position #8 OPEN ROAD draws, but I think he’s a 3-year-old set to make significant progress late in the year. He comes in off of a win in a first-level allowance over a loaded field. The runner-up, Strong Quality, has talent, and third-place finisher Tiz Rye Time came back to win at next asking.

I think he’s got the tactical speed to clear some of his rivals early and establish position, which isn’t necessarily something likely favorite #6 B DAWK can do. Let’s see if we can get the likely second choice home to kick off the day.

RACE #2: I sincerely hope the daughter of Tapit and Songbird, #2 MAGICAL SONG, gets bet, because I don’t like her. Her works are just-OK, and debuting at seven furlongs is no easy task.

I prefer second-time starter #6 KLASSY BRIDGETTE, who closed to be second in her debut at Churchill and should get plenty of pace to run at. If you want a first-time starter, I’d recommend #8 VIVID DREAMS, whose most recent drill was very sharp, but again, this is a tough first assignment.

RACE #3: #11 MARSALIS will be a very heavy favorite, and he’s my top pick. If you want to extract some value, I’d suggest playing him in exactas with #3 SPARTAN ARMY (who goes second off a long layoff) and #6 PRO OXIDANT (who ran very well in his debut at should come back to form on a cutback in distance).

RACE #4: #9 ARABIAN LION is another heavy chalk that seems live. It’s a Bob Baffert trainee coming in off of earning a 92 Beyer Speed Figure in an impressive first-out win last month. He’s the one to beat, but I don’t think he’s a cinch.

#11 TRES SOLES and #12 PROTEGE both intrigue me at bigger prices. The former wound up on the lead by default in his debut, is bred to want the added distance he gets here, and boasts the Steve Asmussen work tab I love (the two-back work is fast, the most recent drill is a maintenance move). The latter, meanwhile, was professional in victory first time out for a barn whose debuting runners don’t often win. That day’s runner-up was six lengths clear of the third-place finisher and has since come back to win.

If Arabian Lion wins, will I be shocked? No. Will I probably still be alive? Yes. Do I think he’s a single, though? No.

RACE #5: The Grade 2 TAA (formerly the Breeders’ Cup Marathon) has no proven marathoners, and anything can happen. If ever there was a time to hit the “ALL” button, it’s here.

RACE #6: Breeders’ Cup action starts here, with the Juvenile Turf Sprint, and it’s a confounding race. My “Drank’n Champagne” co-host, Josh Rodriguez, really likes #2 LOVE REIGNS. I see why, and that one wouldn’t shock me, but to be honest, I can say the same about nearly half this field.

I’ll give two bombs that you probably want on those late Pick Five tickets. #6 PERSIAN FORCE was a half-length behind Blackbeard in the Group 1 Prix Morny two back, and that day’s rider, the ever-dangerous Frankie Dettori, sees fit to ride back. In addition, #9 SHARP AZA TACK was sent away at 1/5 odds in a stakes race at Kentucky Downs, where I think he bounced and still nearly won. Cutting back in distance should help, and if the same horse that won the Tyro by nearly eight lengths shows up here, he’s got a big chance at a square price.

RACE #7: My first strong play-against comes in the Juvenile Fillies, as I’m against #10 CHOCOLATE GELATO. I don’t think we can judge anything fairly when it comes to the prep races at Aqueduct, which were contested in boggy conditions that may never be replicated again. The post position is tough, this field is imposing, and I simply prefer others.

#7 CHOP CHOP is the wise-guy horse, and she makes a ton of sense. There should be plenty of speed signed on to set up for her late kick, and a step forward from her hard-luck second in the Grade 1 Alcibiades would make her tough. I don’t think it’s as simple as relying on just her, though.

#2 YOU’RE MY GIRL was second in the Frizette, and her debut was sensational. She has the speed to make the rail draw an asset, but I also don’t think she necessarily needs the lead. In addition, I’ll give #11 AMERICAN ROCKETTE another shot. She lost all chance at the start of the Grade 1 Spinaway, but made up a metric ton of ground to finish fourth. Again, I see the Frizette as a throw-out, and with the lively pace we’ll likely get here, she hits me as one that could step up.

Finally, I’ll give you a bonkers longshot that could clunk up for a share. #1 VEGAS MAGIC was 3-for-3 going into the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante, where she likely bounced off of a solid score in the Grade 2 Sorrento. Her pedigree says two turns won’t be a problem, and we know she can close. Can the winner of the Alameda County Fair’s flagship 2-year-old race, the Everett Nevin, win this one? Probably not, but if you’re playing tri’s and super’s, I wouldn’t leave her out.

RACE #8: As you may have seen in the shows and podcasts I’ve done, the Juvenile Fillies Turf houses one of my biggest plays of the entire weekend. Remember what I said about there being no value in Aqueduct preps? That applies here in a big way.

#6 BE YOUR BEST had no shot in the Grade 2 Miss Grillo, where the top two ran in place from start to finish. Toss that race, and you’re left with a 2-year-old filly that won a pair of starts at Saratoga by a total of seven lengths. She saved no ground in her debut and won anyway, defeating #4 FREE LOOK in the process. She then crushed an overmatched group in the P.G. Johnson, and in both instances, she rallied into paces that were pretty soft.

I think there’s plenty of early speed in here, and several of the likely pace-setters have drawn terrible outside posts. This opens the door for Be Your Best to do what she wants and come running late. Should she do so and get the money, she’ll likely be a square price. She’s a very heavy play for me on top.

If you want to go deeper, I’m most intrigued by #5 PLEASANT PASSAGE, who exits back-to-back bullet drills, and #11 G LAURIE, who had a nightmare trip in the Grade 1 Natalma and gets a massive rider change to William Buick. However, Be Your Best will be a single on most of my tickets, and if she wins, Friday will likely be a fantastic day for me regardless of anything else that happens.

RACE #9: Single #3 CAVE ROCK in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and move on.

RACE #10: For reasons that don’t make much sense to me, we finish with the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, and let’s hope this year’s renewal is less eventful than the 2021 running.

#4 SILVER KNOTT and #8 I’M VERY BUSY are logical top two choices, and they’ll both be on my tickets. However, I also really like #5 BATTLE OF NORMANDY, and for many of the same reasons I like Be Your Best two races earlier.

Like Be Your Best, Battle of Normandy ran well twice at Saratoga while closing in paceless races. Like Be Your Best, Battle of Normandy never had a chance in a prep over a boggy turf course at Aqueduct. Like Be Your Best, Battle of Normandy figures to finally get some speed to chase, and will do so at an overlaid price.

In addition to all of that, the rider switch to Jose Lezcano cannot be ignored. Kendrick Carmouche is a fine jockey, but Lezcano has been one of the top turf riders on the New York circuit for years. This is a significant upgrade for a horse that should have every reason to fire a big shot on a big stage.

If you want to go even deeper, #1 VICTORIA ROAD and #2 PACKS A WAHLOP are my “B horses.” However, the first three will take most of my action, and if Battle of Normandy wins, it’ll likely put plenty of cash in my account heading into Saturday’s program.