picks

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/16/21)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $975

The issue with Wednesday’s ruling involving exiled trainer Bob Baffert goes far deeper than, “will Baffert be allowed to run at Saratoga?” That’s the catchy, eyes-grabbing talking point. However, my question is this: After that ruling, what effectiveness will racing’s governing bodies have in handing down punishments with teeth?

The Baffert saga is far from over, and we don’t know how it’ll end. One thing that’s for sure is that racing has a major problem appropriately punishing trainers for violations. Rulings like this one could make that even more difficult. If there’s no incentive to not test the rules, and if whatever sanctions exist don’t fit the crimes associated with them, why wouldn’t win-hungry trainers go as far as they can?

Make no mistake, this doesn’t apply to all trainers, or even most of them. New York is home to some world-class horsemen and horsewomen who care deeply about the equines in their barns. However, at a time where optics matter more than ever before, I think I have a right to be more than a bit concerned.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Alba’s Star got exactly the trip I wanted her to get, but she dropped anchor fast when Kitten by the Sea ranged up outside. I was right in thinking that one wouldn’t win (she got reeled in by Five Alarm Robin), but I dropped $25.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll turn to the eighth race, where I’ll take a small stand. I think it’s possible likely favorites #6 EASY TO BLESS and #8 PATTY H duel each other into defeat. I’ll lean on #3 POLISHED GEM with a $5 win/place bet, and I’ll also key her in $3 exactas above the two favorites and $2 exactas below them.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Quick Return, Race 2
Longshot: Polished Gem, Race 8

R1

Shashashakemeup
LC Racing entry
Mihos

#5 SHASHASHAKEMEUP: Was less than 12-1 in a Grade 1 two starts ago and hasn’t done much wrong since being claimed by Peter Miller late last year. He’s got a bit more early zip than he’s shown in his last few starts, and a clean stalking trip would make him tough to beat; LC RACING ENTRY: I prefer #1A SMOOTH B, who prevailed against weaker at Parx last time out. The outside draw should help him, and he may have enough early speed to clear the field going down the backstretch; #2 MIHOS: Makes his first start for new trainer Brad Cox and showed plenty of promise earlier in his career. He was fourth in the Grade 3 Bold Ruler last fall, and perhaps a change of scenery will allow him to recapture that form. 

R2

Quick Return
Clear Humor
Far Away Look

#8 QUICK RETURN: Did everything but win last time out in his first start since August and looms large from the outside draw. In theory, this is a class jump, but this is far from the strongest race for the level, and a repeat of his last-out effort almost certainly beats these; #6 CLEAR HUMOR: Drops in for a tag at second asking for a barn whose horses tend to improve with experience. Both the winner and runner-up from his debut came right back to win, so at least he chased solid competition; #5 FAR AWAY LOOK: Hasn’t raced since December, and the drop in class is a concern, but he’s worked very well ahead of his 2021 debut. Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride for Ken McPeek, and maturation from two to three would give him a shot at a piece of this.

R3

Courageous Girl (MTO)
Giacosa
Light in the Sky

#2 GIACOSA: Has been competitive in a pair of starts against similar downstate and could relish a return to this turf course. One of her best career efforts came here last summer going two turns, and she’s got enough speed to work out a dream trip; #4 LIGHT IN THE SKY: Has recorded both of her wins (and two seconds) over this turf course and actually ran pretty well in the off-the-turf Mount Vernon last time out. If she gets a faster-than-expected pace to run at, she could be a handful turning for home; #6 CHOCOLATE COOKIE: Will probably go favored given her connections and solid 2020 campaign, but I have my doubts, especially at her likely price. She hasn’t run since October, this field came up pretty salty for the condition, and it’s not like her figures dwarf those of her rivals.

R4

Tekila (MTO)
Angelou
Flaming Rouge

#7 ANGELOU: Ran well in her seasonal debut, when she was second after stalking a very slow pace downstate. Sire Curlin has no problem throwing horses who can run marathon-type distances, and she sure looks like one of the few forwardly-placed horses in this group; #5 FLAMING ROUGE: Stretched out to a mile and a quarter and was beaten less than a length last time out. The tag team of Clement and Rosario must be respected, but given that she’s now 0-for-7, it may be time to question if she wants to win; #3 FORTUNA: Ran well going very long a few times last season and may have needed the race last time out at Belmont. A repeat of either of her efforts from last summer would give her a chance at a square price.

R5

Absolute Love
Seeds of Time
Yes I’m Evil

#5 ABSOLUTE LOVE: Routed an overmatched field last month in Indiana and drops back into the claiming ranks here. He’s shown he does his best work going two turns, and trainer Joe Sharp has quietly enjoyed a strong year to this point, hitting at a 19% clip; #6 SEEDS OF TIME: Was claimed by the high-percentage Danny Gargan outfit last time and has worked well ahead of his local debut. He won twice going long at Oaklawn this past winter/spring, and that type of form plus a lively early pace would make him a contender; #2 YES I’M EVIL: Takes a curious drop all the way to the $12,500 ranks after running third for a $40,000 tag last time out at Keeneland. Her last two wins both came in off-the-turf races at Fair Grounds, but perhaps the class drop is enough to put her right there.

R6

Let Her Inspire U
November Rein
Tough Street

#2 LET HER INSPIRE U: Hammered for $500,000 earlier this year and has plenty of pedigree. She’s by promising young sire Practical Joke, the Pletcher/Velazquez tag team merits respect, and the most recent workout on July 10th was a head-turner; #7 NOVEMBER REIN: Did everything but win in her debut downstate, when she was second beaten a neck after setting the pace. Only one published work since then is a bit of a red flag, but if she steps forward off of that race, look out; #5 TOUGH STREET: Has been working consistently for Chad Brown ahead of her unveiling, but in a race with several promising young fillies, I’m going to try to beat her. Her works don’t tower over her competition, and while it won’t be a shock if she’s well-meant, her likely odds hit me as an underlay.

R7

Amendment Nineteen (MTO)
Too Sexy
Rivendell

#2 TOO SEXY: Hasn’t run a bad race since being shortened up to turf sprints last summer by Clement, and she exits a good second downstate where she rated a bit behind a slow pace. This trip should suit her better, and the faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be; #10 RIVENDELL: Draws an unfavorable outside post but was a decent second last time out after being much closer to the pace. John Velazquez gets the mount, and if the recent works at Belmont are any indication, she’s coming into this event in very good form; #3 MUMBAI: Is the “other” Clement in this race and ships up after running second at Monmouth. Prior to that, she broke her maiden at Gulfstream and topped a next-out winner in the process.

R8

Polished Gem
Easy to Bless
Patty H

#3 POLISHED GEM: Merits a long look at a nice price. She won a similar race at Churchill two back before running second for a slightly higher tag, and I love that she’s shown an ability to stalk and pass others late. Not needing the lead could help her in a race with lots of early zip; #6 EASY TO BLESS: Has won four in a row and drops in off a victory against starter allowance foes at Belmont. She’s got plenty of early speed, and it’s encouraging to see Rosario ride back when he probably had some options; #8 PATTY H: Has won three times in her last four starts and thumped a weaker bunch in Indiana last month, but I’ve got some questions. She’s in career-best form and sold for $125,000 in 2019, so why is top-class horseman Brad Cox dropping her in for $40,000 after she’s gotten on track?

R9

Value Proposition
Delaware
Rinaldi

#3 VALUE PROPOSITION: Is one of three runners from the Chad Brown barn in the Grade 3 Forbidden Apple, and he hits me as the most likely winner. His most recent effort at Belmont was very strong, and logical improvement in his third start of the form cycle would make him the one to beat; #7 DELAWARE: Got zero pace to run at in the Seek Again last time out but rallied to take a similar race two back at Aqueduct. He may be somewhat pace-dependent, but there is some speed signed on, and that could set things up for him; #1 RINALDI: Draws the rail and sure looks like the one they’ll all be chasing into the first turn. He’s never won outside of the state-bred ranks, so perhaps he’s a bit outclassed, but if he’s able to dictate terms, he could hang on for a share.

R10

U Should B Dancing
Fancy Feline
Baudi Moovan

#4 U SHOULD B DANCING: Hits me as the one to beat in a “now or never” situation. She gets Lasix second off the bench, she’s run second in three turf sprints at this level, and quite frankly, there just isn’t much other proven form signed on; #9 FANCY FELINE: Rallied from last to be third in her debut, which was rained off the turf. This barn’s runners usually improve with experience, and if turf was the plan all along, she’s got a big shot to relish the new footing at second asking; #1 BAUDI MOOVAN: Makes her debut two years after selling for $260,000 as a yearling. She’s worked fairly well and is a daughter of top turf sire Twirling Candy, and in this sort of a field, that’s enough to give her a big chance if she’s ready to run.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/15/21; OPENING DAY)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

Happy Opening Day, everyone! I’m excited to be back for another year, and I’m looking forward to hopefully helping you have some fun times at one of horse racing’s last remaining cathedrals.

If you’re new, here’s how this works: All of my stuff will be available in print in The Pink Sheet and online at AndrewChampagne.com. I’m in California and work a day in advance to mitigate the time difference. Wednesday’s content will be online Monday night, Thursday’s content will be up Tuesday night, and so on.

In addition to my selections in the pick box and detailed analysis of every race, I’ll have this space, which offers room for some quick thoughts and a bankroll play for each day of racing. If you’ve got any questions or comments you want me to address, tweet me at @AndrewChampagne. I’m an easy guy to connect with, and I’m always happy to engage with folks who enjoy my stuff. Let’s make some money!

THURSDAY’S PLAY: We begin with a reminder that all action assumes races carded for the turf stay there, and that surface changes render tickets null and void. With that in mind, if the sixth race stays on the lawn, I love #2 ALBA’S STAR, who looks like the lone speed second off the bench and returns to a two-turn route she’s shown she loves. I’ll kick off the meet with a $25 win bet on that one.

TOTAL WAGERED: $25.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Lady Scarlet, Race 5
Longshot: Skyro, Race 3

R1

Wagon Boss
Grit and Glory
Charlie’sarchangel

#4 WAGON BOSS: Gets a tepid nod in a pretty wide-open lid-lifter. He beat a similar-level field last time out at Churchill and may get the type of stalking trip he’s shown he prefers beneath world-class jockey Joel Rosario; #7 GRIT AND GLORY: Has a chance to win the first race of the meet for the second year in a row. He’s got back races that are good enough to win this, and he’s shown he can rally late, which could come in handy in a race that appears to have plenty of early speed; #5 CHARLIE’SARCHANGEL: Finished a half-length behind my top pick last time out and has since moved to the barn of Robertino Diodoro, who’s very strong with new acquisitions. He may go favored, and he’s not without a chance, but he hasn’t won in a while and sure seemed like he lost with a perfect trip when we last saw him run.

R2

Speedometer
Zmuda
Microbiome

#9 SPEEDOMETER: Ran like a horse that needed her debut effort in last month’s unveiling at Churchill Downs, when she was third behind a good-looking winner that’ll take money in today’s co-feature. She’s a full sister to hard-knocking sprinter Nitrous, her experience should help her, and the outside draw should allow her to settle down a bit; #7 ZMUDA: Made a mild move to be fourth in her first start, and she did so for a barn whose first-time starters often need a race. Her work tab includes some fast moves at Keeneland, and she’s another eligible to move forward; #4 MICROBIOME: Hammered for $100,000 at auction last September and is working like a good horse. Pay attention to the track condition, as her pedigree (by Twirling Candy, out of a Smoke Glacken mare) says she’ll move up over a wet surface.

R3

Wudda U Think Now (MTO)
St. Joe Louis
Skyro

#9 ST. JOE LOUIS: Came north after a frustrating debut at Tampa Bay Downs and walloped a field that included a next-out winner. This is his first try out of the maiden ranks, but he’s bred to be a very good horse and it’s not like this field has any monsters in it; #4 SKYRO: Tries turf for the first time and has a bottom-side pedigree that says he’ll love it. His dam is kin to a horse named Jambalaya, who was one of the better turf routers in the country in his day, and this one’s shown enough talent on dirt to intrigue at his likely price; #7 SO SUAVE: Makes his U.S. debut off of a long break, but gets Lasix for the first time and is certainly in capable hands. His best races overseas came over firmer going, which may be the reason he was sent here after showing enough promise to be 4-1 in a Group 3 last summer.

R4

Gem Key (MTO)
Ocean Air
Big Bad Diva

#12 OCEAN AIR: Has run well twice at this level downstate and goes back to two turns, a configuration she won over in Florida. It sure seems like there’s a lot of early zip in this field, and I think she’s likely to be rolling late; #10 BIG BAD DIVA: Comes in off a freshening and will make her first start since March. She has tactical speed but doesn’t necessarily need the lead to run well, and she’s yet to miss the board in five career starts; #1 CLADDAGH’S RUN: Certainly moves up in class after several wins against claimers at Tampa, but there’s no denying she’s in good form and would benefit from a pace meltdown. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez sees fit to ride for George Weaver, and nothing says she can’t get a piece of this at a bit of a price.

R5

Lady Scarlet
Solasta
Echo Zulu

#3 LADY SCARLET: Dueled through fast fractions in her debut, when she was second beaten less than two lengths and topped the third-place finisher by four. Her recent bullet drill over the training track jumps off the page, and between her experience and evident talent, I think she’ll be quite imposing; #6 SOLASTA: Sold for $300,000 at auction last year and sports several fast works over this track. She’s a half-sister to Grade 1-winning sprinter Mia Mischief, and everything here says she’s got lots of talent; #7 ECHO ZULU: Also sold for $300,000 a year ago and is by promising first-crop sire Gun Runner. Among her half-siblings are Grade 1 winner Echo Town and Grade 3 winner J Boys Echo, and if there’s any hesitation here, it’s because I think she may want a bit more ground.

R6

Courageous Girl (MTO)
Alba’s Star
Jazzy Lady

#2 ALBA’S STAR: Looks like the lone speed in this inner turf event, and that’s always incredibly dangerous. She set a pretty fast pace for the level last time out and was third behind a next-out winner. A return to two turns should help her, and she could sit a very easy trip; #11 JAZZY LADY: Was claimed back by Ray Handal last time and exits a win over a weaker group at Churchill. The outside post is far from ideal, but she overcame a funky trip when we last saw her, and Rosario’s presence is a plus; #10 TWO CENT TOOTSIE: Drops into restricted claiming company after knocking heads with solid state-breds in her two most recent outings. This sure seems like an easier spot, and perhaps she can use her tactical speed to clear most of the field going into the first turn. 

R7

Pletcher entry
Dack Janiel’s
Dust Devil

PLETCHER ENTRY: I prefer #1 ARHAM, who’s run several races fast enough to get the job done here. He tries two turns for the first time, and his pedigree says he’ll love that journey; #4 DACK JANIEL’S: Got pretty good late last year when third beaten two lengths in a Grade 2 on the Breeders’ Cup undercard. His most recent effort at Churchill was pretty good, and he’d certainly benefit from any moisture in the track (rain, not whiskey); #8 DUST DEVIL: Makes his first start for Bill Mott and does so while returning to two turns. He splashed home to a six-length score in his last two-turn outing and was most recently third in the same race my top pick exits. 

R8

Golden Pal
Jaxon Traveler
Rebel Posse

#3 GOLDEN PAL: Ran one of the most impressive races of the 2020 season here when he romped in the Skidmore Stakes at this route. We haven’t seen him since the Breeders’ Cup, but he’s working well ahead of his return and would be a handful if he’s ready to run; #9 JAXON TRAVELER: Looms the main danger and has not finished worse than second in seven career starts. He was a decent second on a synthetic surface last time out, and there’s every reason to believe turf won’t be a problem; #8 REBEL POSSE: Is undefeated in two turf starts and showed an impressive turn of foot last time out. If you believe Golden Pal needs a race, or that he could be compromised by a speed duel, this one makes sense as a price play.

R9

Pretty Birdie
Happy Soul
Cartel Queen

#1 PRETTY BIRDIE: Won her debut impressively, and if that day’s third-place finisher runs well in the second race, it could bode well for this Norm Casse trainee. She appears to have bounced out of her unveiling well, and she’d be a popular winner given the name on the “owner” line; #7 HAPPY SOUL: Romped in two races downstate for 2-year-old maestro Wesley Ward and will almost certainly go favored. This daughter of a horse I will not name (not until I get the same money everyone else is getting, Mattress Mack!) has shown precocity, but this seems like a far stronger group, and any regression would make her vulnerable at a short price; #9 CARTEL QUEEN: Adds blinkers after a professional victory last time out at Churchill. She’s fired back-to-back bullets ahead of her first try against winners, and seeing Tom Amoss and Irad Ortiz, Jr., at 12-1 is undoubtedly enticing.

R10

Ruse
Big Georges Kingdm
Clever Fellow

#12 RUSE: Stayed on well when pressing a very fast pace for the level in his first start since January. He adds Lasix for this race, and his lone two-turn effort saw him run a close-up second at Aqueduct; #10 BIG GEORGES KINGDM: Makes his turf debut and has a pedigree that says he’ll like the footing. He’s by Animal Kingdom, out of a Big Brown mare, and comes in off of back-to-back second-place finishes this past spring against OK groups on dirt; #8 CLEVER FELLOW: Will likely be a pretty heavy favorite given his connections, but I see several red flags. He’s been a beaten chalk in each of his last three starts, it’s his first time going two turns, and why have they waited until now to add blinkers? At his probable price, I can’t endorse him on top.

NFL Picks, Plays, and Daily Fantasy: Nov. 15, 2020 (Week 10)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Last week: 1-3
2020 season: 21-13-2 (61.8%)

All lines and totals are courtesy of America’s Line. All DFS costs are courtesy of DraftKings.

Packers -13.5 over Jaguars

Jacksonville nearly pulled off a sizable upset last week against Houston. The Jaguars played hard and had a chance to tie with a two-point conversion, but the attempt failed and the Texans survived. This week, however, holds a much taller task for the Jags, who will once again trot out backup quarterback Jake Luton against the 6-2 Packers at Lambeau Field.

The half-point here is crucial. If this was a 14-point spread, it would look significantly less appetizing. However, in a world where a 28-14, “not as close as it looked” victory is a win for Green Bay backers, I want as much of Gang Green as I can get.

Chargers/Dolphins: OVER 48.5

By and large, I thought the totals were pretty spot-on this week. This one, however, seems a few points low. Justin Herbert may be the best offensive rookie in football, and the Dolphins have shown they’re a competent offensive squad with a special teams unit that can make big plays.

This hits me as a 28-24 sort of game, with both defenses showing up but not being totally immune to big plays. I’m looking forward to seeing two rookie quarterbacks in action, and I’m rooting for them to put up plenty of points.

Ravens -7 over Patriots

This line confuses me. I know the Baltimore offense has been inconsistent, but the Patriots nearly lost to the bottom-feeding Jets on Monday Night Football and will be coming in on a short week. Perhaps the presence of Bill Belichick is keeping this line tighter than it should be, but whatever the case is, I feel like Baltimore should be a double-digit favorite.

The Patriots…are simply not good. The shine’s come off of Cam Newton, who has no wide receiving corps to work with, and while the defense hasn’t been awful, it also hasn’t been good enough to completely stop opposing playmakers. I think Baltimore wins and wins comfortably, far more comfortably than the seven-point spread would suggest.

Bears +3 over Vikings

Initially, I wanted no part of this game. I thought Chicago giving two, as the Bears were when wagering opened, was a decent line. However, with news that David Montgomery won’t suit up, the line has shifted five points, and I think that’s an overcorrection.

Yes, Chicago losing Montgomery will hurt. However, while the Vikings have won two in a row, it’s not like they were overwhelming in last week’s win over the Lions. The Bears, meanwhile, have been competitive against far better squads the last two weeks and should relish the class relief. I can’t pass up the chance to get three with the Bears here, and Chicago’s money line (+$160 as of this writing) wouldn’t be the worst bet in the world, either.

DAILY FANTASY PLAYERS TO WATCH

QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT ($6,200)
WR Diontae Johnson, PIT ($5,200)
TE Eric Ebron, PIT ($4,400)

The undefeated Steelers face the Bengals, whose secondary has been ravaged by injuries and COVID-19. With that in mind, I think Sunday will be a great day for the Pittsburgh aerial attack, and that bodes well for this mini-stack. Johnson and Ebron are also pretty low-investment guys this week, which opens room in the budget for other playmakers.

WR Travis Fulgham, PHI ($6,400)

Fulgham has been a revelation for the Eagles, who moreso resemble a MASH unit than a football team. A sixth-round pick in 2019, he’s seen 41 targets the past four weeks and has found the end zone three times.

Philadelphia gets the woeful Giants on Sunday. Between his apparent talent and his likely volume, I like his chances at another big day. $6,400 isn’t a bargain price tag, but here you get a #1 wide receiver for high-end #2 money.

RB Duke Johnson, HOU ($5,000)

One of my players to watch last week, David Johnson, left the game early with an injury, which opened the door for Houston’s OTHER D. Johnson to shine. Duke will once again be the featured back this week in a game at Cleveland where heavy winds could keep the ball on the ground for most of the afternoon.

Duke doesn’t have the highest ceiling, and he managed just 73 yards on 20 touches a week ago. However, he did find the end zone, and with his likely workload, I need to buy low. A similar output Sunday would make him a bargain. Improvement after a week with the first-team offense would make him a steal.

NFL Picks, Plays, and Daily Fantasy: Nov. 1, 2020 (Week Eight)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

I know you’re probably here for football, but I need to give a few cheap plugs for stuff I’ll be doing this week. We’re less than a week from the Breeders’ Cup, and I’m fortunate to be in a position where I can create some cool content and help others do the same.

We’ll be doing two episodes of “Champagne and J.D.” this week. Ren Carothers will join us Wednesday to preview the Friday slate, while Nick Hines will return for his second appearance to discuss the Saturday program. I’m proud to call both Ren and Nick friends of mine, and I’ve learned a great deal from them. You won’t want to miss this, so head to the “Champagne and J.D.” YouTube channel and hit the “subscribe” button.

I’ll also be part of Gino Buccola’s Murderer’s Row-ish lineup of guests on his podcast, “That’s What G Said.” Darin Zoccali and I will join Gino to talk about the Turf and Filly and Mare Turf, and given some of our past episodes where we’ve dived into fields and wagering strategies, this’ll be even more good stuff for you to sink your teeth into ahead of racing’s year-end championship event.

Anyway, on to the week eight slate of NFL picks, plays, and daily fantasy players to watch! Last week was another good one, as a 3-1 mark moved me to 19-8-1 on the season. As usual, point spreads and totals are courtesy of America’s Line, and daily fantasy costs are courtesy of DraftKings. Let’s get to it!

PICKS/PLAYS

Titans/Bengals: OVER 51

I’m really looking forward to watching this one, for a lot of reasons. These are two offenses that can put up a lot of points, and I think the public might be sleeping on that fact just a bit. The total opened at 52.5 and has actually drifted down a bit, which surprises me.

The Titans did just record their first loss of the season against Pittsburgh, but they still put up 24 points against a top-tier defense. Meanwhile, the Bengals have gone over the total in three of their last four games and have positively crushed the number each of the last two weeks. They’ll likely be playing from behind, and I think that could set things up for a shootout (more on that in the DFS section).

51 seems too low. With 31-20 being a push, this is probably my best bet of the weekend, and I’m hoping for carnage.

Bills -4.5 over Patriots

Given the way San Francisco took New England behind the woodshed last weekend, I’m stunned the line is this low. Honestly, I think a big reason for that is the New England stigma in the AFC East. Take that fact out of the equation, and this hits me as two or three points too low.

Buffalo did not look good last week, when they had to come from behind to beat the woeful Jets. With that said, New England will be without Julian Edelman and Stephon Gilmore for this game, and I simply don’t think they’ve got the firepower to keep up with Josh Allen and company. This hits me as a 24-14 sort of game, which would be a comfortable cover for Buffalo.

Seahawks -3 over 49ers

This is the contest many are seeing as the game of the week, and for good reason. These two NFC West rivals are loaded with talent, and the last three meetings between these two teams have been decided by a total of 11 points.

My question: Are George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk enough to match Russell Wilson and company? I simply don’t think so. Perhaps Kyle Shanahan has fun stuff cooked up, but this game looks to be a high-scoring one, and Seattle just seems to have far more weapons. It doesn’t surprise me that the spread is narrow, and it’s not like it’d be shocking if San Francisco covered or even won outright, but give me the Seahawks in what seems like a 38-31 kind of game.

Bucs -12.5 over Giants

No two ways around it, gang: The Giants are bad. They’re not historically bad, like their fellow MetLife Stadium residents, but they’re bad, and I just cannot see a way in which this one is even remotely close.

Tom Brady has the Tampa Bay offense humming right now, and the Bucs defense is a top-10 unit that’s second-best in the entire league against the run. Add in the friendlier-than-expected spread, which I’d anticipated being 14 or 15 points, and I’ll gladly back the Bucs in this Monday night tilt.

DAILY FANTASY PLAYERS TO WATCH

WR Tyler Boyd, CIN ($6,600)
QB Joe Burrow, CIN ($6,200)
WR A.J. Green, CIN ($4,500)

Need an economical mini-stack that may not draw much attention? Consider Cincinnati, which will likely be throwing early and often against the Titans. Burrow has thrown for 300 yards or more in five of his last six games, and while Boyd has drawn most of the targets, Green stepped up with a big game last week, one that indicates he could finally be rounding back into form.

If you want to bet on the Bengals even more, running back Giovani Bernard is available for a reasonable price tag as well ($5,800). However, my biggest bet is on the Cincinnati passing attack, one that I’m hoping holds up its end of the bargain in a shootout.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF ($5,800)

Aiyuk doesn’t touch the ball much, but when he does, he’s a threat to take it the distance from wherever he is on the field. That’s a recipe for success against a Seattle defense that’s every bit as poor as the team’s offense is sharp. I think he’ll have several opportunities at big plays in a game where San Francisco will need as many of them as they can get, and he only needs to convert on one or two to make this modest price tag a bargain.

TE Darren Waller, LV ($5,600)

I usually don’t like to splurge on the tight end position, and this is a bit more than I’d prefer to spend. However, Waller, one of last year’s revelations, is reasserting himself as one of the league’s top weapons at the tight end spot. He’s been targeted 16 times over his last two games and has scored in each of those contests, which is appealing enough. Add in that the Raiders are playing Cleveland, whose defense is one of the worst in the league against tight ends, and I think there’s a lot that says Waller will have another big game Sunday.

Green Bay Packers DEF ($2,900)

On paper, Minnesota’s offense looks quite good. However, I think their numbers are a bit inflated after high-scoring games against the Falcons, Seahawks, and Texans, three defenses who have been exploited by many teams so far this year.

Green Bay’s defense has, for the most part, been a solid, if unspectacular, unit to this point in the season. They looked strong in holding Houston to 20 points a week ago, and held Atlanta to 16 earlier this month. At this price, I’m buying a lot of shares and using the savings on other positions.

NFL Picks, Plays, and Daily Fantasy: Oct. 25, 2020 (Week Seven)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Last week’s article went on Twitter as opposed to my website, and for good reason. Work’s been running me ragged, and I simply didn’t have the time to write something fancy. However, I’m back for the final NFL Sunday of October, and after going 3-1 last weekend, I carry a 16-7-1 mark into week seven.

As usual, all point spreads and over/under totals come courtesy of America’s Line, and all DFS costs come courtesy of DraftKings. Let’s take a look!

PICKS/PLAYS

Bills -10 over Jets

I’d love to provide some substantial mathematical analysis. I really wish I could get more creative than stating the obvious, which is that the Jets are one of the worst teams in recent NFL history. To me, it doesn’t even matter that they’re likely getting Sam Darnold back from a shoulder injury.

The Bills have dropped two in a row and will likely be playing angry in this spot. With Miami just a game back in the AFC East standings, they can’t simply take this contest for granted. I think the Bills cruise to an easy victory here, and that the 10-point spread could easily be three or four points higher.

Chiefs -7 over Broncos

Denver pulled off a shocking upset of New England last week, one that likely knocked plenty of people out of survivor pools. However, they did it against a Patriot offense that could not move the football. Kicker Brandon McManus had a busy day and came through when he had to.

I don’t see a similar game script coming to pass here. Kansas City’s offense has far more firepower, and while the Broncos aren’t a bad team (especially now that some starters have healed up), I can’t see them keeping pace with the reigning champs.

Jacksonville/LA Chargers: OVER 49

On paper, this may be the least appealing game of the late window of games. However, the total hits me as far too low. The Charger offense has shown life since Justin Herbert took over, and they’ve lost a pair of high-scoring games where that unit has kept it close against Tampa Bay and New Orleans. Meanwhile, Jacksonville’s offense is streaky, but they can put points on the board and their defense has looked lackluster all season long.

49 hits me as far too low. I think this is a potential shootout, and that these two teams clear that bar with room to spare.

Rams -6 over Bears

The 2020 Chicago Bears may be the worst 5-1 team in NFL history. They’ve won several games in pretty ugly fashion, and shaky play from the quarterback position has made every offensive drive an adventure.

In this one, the Bears get to face Aaron Donald and the Rams defense, which is coming off a subpar performance against the 49ers last week after two straight strong showings against overmatched NFC East teams. I think LA comes out angry, and that the Bears will have a tough time moving the football.

DAILY FANTASY PLAYERS TO WATCH

WR Kenny Golladay, DET ($6,700)
QB Matthew Stafford, DET ($6,500)
TE T.J. Hockenson, DET ($5,000)

The Lions get the Falcons this week, and this game looks like a track meet in the making. The Falcons boast a high-scoring offense and a defense that doesn’t put up much in the way of resistance. That’s a recipe for a mini-stack, and with these three Detroit playmakers, I can form one without breaking the bank.

If you want an even bigger stack, running back D’Andre Swift, who had a breakout game last week against Jacksonville, is available for $5,400. However, the committee Detroit has been going with in the backfield means I’m not quite as bullish on Swift as I am about his three teammates.

RB David Johnson, HOU ($5,300)

Perhaps David Johnson isn’t the explosive playmaker we saw in Arizona a few seasons ago, but he’s established himself as a high-floor option heading into Sunday’s tilt with Green Bay. The Texans showed life last week after the organization fired Bill O’Brien, and they’ll be in position to play another high-scoring game against the Packers this weekend.

If you want another Texan to watch, tight end Darren Fells may be worth considering at his $4,100 price point. He’s caught touchdowns in back-to-back games and will see tons of snaps with fellow tight end Jordan Akins likely out this weekend.

WR Corey Davis, TEN ($4,800)

Davis was activated from the reserve/COVID-19 list and will return to action Sunday. Before going to the sidelines, he caught 15 passes in three games and was one of Ryan Tannehill’s favorite targets. He’s fresh, and with Pittsburgh’s offense moving the ball well, Tennessee may need to respond with aerial aggression. At his price, I think Davis is a fun flex play.