BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $132

Good Cheer figures to be one of the shortest-priced favorites of the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival when she goes postward in Friday’s Grade 1 Acorn. She’s 7-for-7, exits a professional score in the Kentucky Oaks, and looks every bit like the best 3-year-old filly in the country.

The scary thing is, there’s a slight chance she’s not even the best 3-year-old filly in her barn. Immersive, last year’s Champion 2-Year-Old Filly after a campaign that included three Grade 1 wins, has returned to the work tab at Churchill Downs. She’s also owned by Godolphin and trained by Brad Cox, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see her in some big spots down the road next to her ultra-talented stablemate.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Major Dude had every chance in the Poker and gave me a thrill, but he couldn’t get to Donegal Momentum. I dropped $38.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: We’ll focus on the seventh race, which houses my best bet of the day. That’s #7 LOUISE PROCTER, and she’ll be the key to a big day. In addition to a $30 win bet on her, I’ll have $5 doubles singling her, both starting in the sixth with #3 WAYS AND MEANS and ending in the eighth with #1 ASBURY PARK/#1A NOBLE CONFESSOR and #9 SOLUTIONS.

TOTAL WAGERED: $45.

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Louise Procter, Race 7
Longshot: Solutions, Race 8

R1

Sassy Shenanigans
Bellacose
Geopolitics

#4 SASSY SHENANIGANS (5-1): Didn’t seem like she sat her desired trip last time, when she was a one-paced third after being up close out of the gate. She hits me as more of a closer, and that could benefit her in a race with what seems like a lot of early speed signed on; #10 BELLACOSE (6-1): Romped in her debut here last summer before struggling in a pair of stakes races. We haven’t seen her since November, but she’s been working steadily ahead of her first start for Wesley Ward and returns with Lasix; #5 GEOPOLITICS (3-1): Burned quite a bit of money last year, losing as an odds-on favorite four different times. She’s been off since November, but of the other speed types, she looks the fastest early and the most likely to hang on for a share.

R2

Repole entry
Resurge
Surprise

REPOLE ENTRY (8/5): Both #1 NUMBERED and #1A ENDORSE could win this. The former has a right to improve after running third in the slop in her unveiling last month, while the latter sports a series of strong local drills and gets Irad Ortiz, Jr.; #11 RESURGE (4-1): Debuts for Bill Mott and is bred to be any kind. Dam Close Hatches was a heck of a racehorse, and she’s a top-class broodmare that’s thrown stakes horses Tacitus, Scylla, and Batten Down, among others; #6 SURPRISE (6-1): Ran fifth in her debut at Keeneland, but that wasn’t an easy spot. That day’s runner-up has since come back to win, and this one has bounced back with a couple of workouts that indicate she got plenty out of her initial start.

R3

Laser Sharp (MTO)
Works for Me
Run Carson

#3 WORKS FOR ME (8/5): Fell just short in his 2025 debut, where he lost a brutal head bob as an odds-on favorite. He sprang a 23-1 upset in a stakes race late last year, Flavien Prat returns to ride, and I think he’s a very legitimate favorite; #4 RUN CARSON (6-1): Made up a lot of ground to finish third in his return to the races at Keeneland after a slow start. He’s run well here several times in the past, and he’s a consistent sort who generally runs the same race every time; #7 REFUEL (10-1): Merits a look at a bit of a price in his second start off of a long, long break. He set a very fast pace in his return to the races before fading for fourth, and the presence of top gate rider Luis Saez indicates he’ll be prominent early once again.

R4

Vehemente
Nolita
Army Gal

#7 VEHEMENTE (3-1): Is doing the best running of her career and will look to record her third straight win in this spot. Kendrick Carmouche is 2-for-2 aboard this filly, and I like that she’s got plenty of tactical speed but doesn’t absolutely need the lead in order to run well; #1 NOLITA (8-1): Is a stone closer in a race with what seems like plenty of early speed elsewhere. She was last seen running second behind Dolomie at Aqueduct, and the faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be; #5 ARMY GAL (5/2): Had every chance last time out but couldn’t get by the winner after what seemed like an ideal stalking trip. Perhaps this group is a bit weaker, but the stretchout to seven furlongs is an unknown and she’ll likely be a pretty short price (which would hit me as an underlay).

R5

Dreamlike
Malarchuk
Costa Terra

#7 DREAMLIKE (9/2): Has run once since last June, and that was a clunker over the synthetic at Gulfstream. However, he has prior dirt races that would crush this field, including a third-place finish behind Lord Miles in the 2023 Wood Memorial (if you know me, you had to know that reference was coming); #2 MALARCHUK (4-1): Adds blinkers after a no-excuses second at 3/5 in an off-the-turf race downstate. He stretches back out to two turns for this one, and given his running lines, it feels like blinkers should absolutely move him forward; #4 COSTA TERRA (20-1): Merits a look underneath at a big price. He’s hit the board in six of seven Saratoga starts, he has a win at this distance, and Umberto Rispoli sees fit to take the mount. This is a class jump from his last few efforts, but he has 2024 races that would give him a puncher’s chance in here.

R6

Ways and Means
Scylla
Miss Justify

#3 WAYS AND MEANS (6/5): Returned from a six-month break to run third in the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff. That Churchill Downs track was very tiring, and a few different horses paid for not having a recent race. I’m banking on a significant step forward in the Grade 2 Bed o’ Roses, especially since she won the Grade 1 Test at this route last summer; #2 SCYLLA (5/2): Was fourth in the race my top pick exits, and she was another coming in off of a long break. I think there’s a chance she wants longer than this distance, but she was fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint last year and could also move forward; #6 MISS JUSTIFY (12-1): Takes a jump up in class but has won four of her last five starts. The lone defeat came in last summer’s Grade 1 Alabama going much longer, so I have no problem tossing that race. A step forward from her optional claiming prep downstate could get her a check at a nice price.

R7

Louise Procter
Mystifying
Wrigleyville

#7 LOUISE PROCTER (4-1): Makes her U.S. debut for Chad Brown and gets Lasix for the first time, which is always an appealing angle. Her prior connections took some big shots after a 3-for-3 start, including a Group 1 at Longchamp last spring, and she’s been working steadily for this outfit since shipping in; #3 MYSTIFYING (2-1): Was beaten a neck at Keeneland in her first start of the season and has a right to improve off of that effort. She was a close-up second behind a very nice horse on closing day here last summer, and she figures to be prominent early (never a bad trip on the inner turf); #10 WRIGLEYVILLE (10-1): Hasn’t won in a while, but goes to the barn of respected horseman Tom Proctor and may have needed her seasonal debut at Gulfstream going shorter. She stretches back out to two turns, which is probably her desired trip.

R8

St. Elias entry
Solutions
Tom Collins

ST. ELIAS ENTRY (6/5): #1 ASBURY PARK drew into the body of the field and was a 9/5 favorite in his lone start to date, where he ran a fast-closing fifth. He’ll get Lasix for the first time, while #1A NOBLE CONFESSOR looks to draw in off the AE list. Either can win, which makes the entry impossible to ignore; #9 SOLUTIONS (12-1): Showed speed in his debut on dirt, but his bottom-side pedigree says he’ll love the lawn. He’s kin to stakes-placed turfer Killjoy, and dam Sally Dangles (by top turf influence More Than Ready) is a half to graded stakes winner Consumer Credit, who did his best work on the grass; #6 TOM COLLINS (6-1): Led turning for home before fading to finish fifth in a tough spot for the level on the Derby Day undercard. His two-back effort at Tampa wasn’t bad, and he was a close-up third at this route late last summer behind the well-meant Agate Road.

R9

Raging Sea
Randomized
Leslie’s Rose

#4 RAGING SEA (5/2): Sprang a mild upset in the Grade 1 La Troienne, where she defeated reigning Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna. She did get an ideal trip that day, but it was also her first race in six months and she’s been working very, very well ahead of the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps. A step forward would make her a real handful; #7 RANDOMIZED (9/2): Completes a powerful 1-2 punch for Chad Brown and looks like this race’s main speed. She was third behind Raging Sea last time out, and she’s 3-for-5 at Saratoga, including a win in this race last year over champion Idiomatic; #3 LESLIE’S ROSE (7/2): May have needed her run in the Grade 3 Vagrancy, and that race was much shorter than her ideal two-turn trip. That’s what she gets here, and a return to her Grade 1-winning form from early-2024 would give her a chance in this loaded event.

R10

Grand Sonata
Limited Liability
Flatten the Curve

#8 GRAND SONATA (6-1): Tries the grueling two-mile trip for the first time in the Grade 2 Belmont Gold Cup, but he’s got a ton of back class. He’s a Grade 2 winner who has faced some of the top turf horses in training, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., hopping aboard is a big, big plus; #3 LIMITED LIABILITY (2-1): Was third in this race a season ago and looks like the main speed, which is always dangerous in marathon turf races. Frankie Dettori knows him well, and his best race could win this, but he’s also won just once since May of 2023, and that makes him hard to trust at a short price; #1 FLATTEN THE CURVE (3-1): Comes over from Europe for his event and has won four in a row, including a Group 2 event in Germany. German racing isn’t quite the caliber of England or France, but that win came at this distance and his regular rider sees fit to fly in.

R11

Good Cheer
Bless the Broken
Shred the Gnar

#2 GOOD CHEER (1/2): May be the shortest-priced favorite of the day, and for good reason. She’s a perfect 7-for-7, cruised to victory in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks five weeks ago, and has been working well since. If she puts forth her usual effort in the Grade 1 Acorn, it’d be tough to imagine her getting beaten; #5 BLESS THE BROKEN (10-1): Came from way back to finish third in the Oaks at a price, and she may once again get a solid setup here. There’s plenty of early speed in this group, and that could allow her to rally for a big piece of this one; #4 SHRED THE GNAR (3-1): May be the “wise guy” horse in here after two runaway wins, but I have some doubts. She’s never won from off the pace, she’ll run without Lasix for the first time, and regular rider Luis Saez hops off to ride the favorite. That’s a lot to swallow.

R12

She Feels Pretty
Forever After All
Gimme a Nother

#8 SHE FEELS PRETTY (3/5): Returned to the races with a flourish in the Grade 3 Modesty, where she never once looked like a loser. She’s now 3-for-3 since adding blinkers, she’s proven she can handle this distance, and she should get an ideal trip in the Grade 1 New York; #1 FOREVER AFTER ALL (10-1): Ran a monster race in the Grade 3 Bewitch, which she won by nine lengths while geared down late. This is a significant class jump, to be sure, but she may simply be in career-best form (while in foal!), and I think she may offer value in the exotics behind a short-priced favorite; #3 GIMME A NOTHER (7/2): Chased my top pick last time out and has run well in two U.S. tries since shipping in from South Africa. She went 7-for-7 in her homeland and has literally never run a bad race. The question is, is more distance what she wants?

R13

Choisya
Excellent Truth
A Lilac Rolla

#9 CHOISYA (4-1): Benefited from a controversial “no change” ruling to win the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley in her U.S. debut. She probably got lucky to stay up, but at the same time, there’s a chance she still would’ve won even without shifting out. She topped the classy Cinderella’s Dream on the square two back, and she could add another Grade 1 win in the Just A Game; #8 EXCELLENT TRUTH (5/2): Was second behind my top pick last time out and looks for some revenge here. That was her first try since July, and she could continue what looks to be a banner day in the making for trainer Chad Brown; #7 A LILAC ROLLA (6-1): Makes her U.S. debut off a long break, but her early-2024 races were very sharp. She was second in the Group 1 1,000 Guineas at The Curragh before running third behind world-class mare Porta Fortuna at Newmarket, and she’s got a big chance if she’s ready to run.

R14

Broman entry
Poppy’s Ticket
Counter Move

BROMAN ENTRY (2-1): #1 KEEPINITREAL has a big chance if he’s ready to run, but I prefer #1A IRON DOME, who has a lot to like if he draws in off the AE list. He’s been running in open races at Oaklawn, and this would be his first try against New York-breds. The switch from Erik Asmussen to Jose Ortiz is a big one, too; #14 POPPY’S TICKET (8-1): Merits a long look at a bit of a price in his second career start. He was stuck inside after not making the lead, but showed some poise in rallying for third. He gets a better post here, comes in off of a sharp work downstate, and could have lots of room to improve with experience; #12 COUNTER MOVE (3-1): Looks like the main speed in here, which is a plus, but he’s flopped twice in a row as an odds-on favorite without any apparent excuses. The cutback to seven furlongs may help him a bit, but there are still legitimate stamina concerns that are tough to stomach (especially at a short price).

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $170

Thursday’s bankroll section must be a “Plan B.” The horse I’m most excited to bet comes in the finale, and that’s probably too late for my editors and the folks putting The Pink Sheet together (on top of also assembling the daily sports sections for both The Saratogian and The Troy Record).

You can check out my analysis of that race below and bet with the knowledge that my top pick in there will be a single for me. Thankfully, there’s a way for me to bet on a strong opinion just a bit earlier in the program, and that’s what I’m doing.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Sterling Silver looked home and cooled out at the quarter pole in the Critical Eye, but Bernietakescharge repelled the challenge. I dropped $30.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I won’t play the finale, but I will play the Grand Slam, which concludes in the ninth. I really like #4 MAJOR DUDE in there, and this is part of how I’ll try to extract value. My $1 ticket starts in the sixth and goes as follows: 4,7 with 1,2,5 with 2,4,8 with 4. In addition, I’ll also have a $20 win bet on Major Dude, too.

TOTAL WAGERED: $38.

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Smartest, Race 10
Longshot: Limes Don’t Lie, Race 6

R1

Mythical
Blinging It Back
Mercilesanihilator

#3 MYTHICAL (8/5): Stomped an overmatched field in his April debut at Gulfstream, and I loved the way he finished. He covered the last sixteenth of a mile in less than six seconds after dictating terms from the jump. If he steps forward here in the Tremont, I think he’ll be tough to beat; #2 BLINGING IT BACK (3-1): Started horribly in his unveiling but nearly overcame it, covering a ton of ground in the stretch to be beaten less than two lengths. Mark Casse’s horses sometimes need a race or two to get going, and he stands to improve considerably with a better break; #4 MERCILESANIHILATOR (4-1): Topped my second choice last time out after dueling for most of the race and re-rallying after being headed. Larry Rivelli doesn’t ship here for frequent flyer miles, and at a minimum, this one figures to be prominent early.

R2

Fire’s Out
Hideaway
Key Actress

#5 FIRE’S OUT (9/2): Ran very well in her return off a long layoff, closing to be beaten a half-length despite there not being much of an early pace to chase. Her pedigree says she’ll stretch out (she’s a full sister to Dreamfyre, who won a graded stakes going long on the lawn), and Rosario riding back is a plus; #4 HIDEAWAY (3-1): Comes back to the maiden ranks after a failed try in the Grade 2 Edgewood. This is a significant class drop, to be sure, and her two efforts prior to the graded stakes experiment make her a logical favorite with a chance to graduate; #7 KEY ACTRESS (6-1): Faded to fourth after setting the pace in her debut and has every right to move forward at second asking. Her two published works since that race are very good, and Bill Mott’s horses tend to improve with experience.

R3

Sassy C W
Vernon Valley
Gena B

#3 SASSY C W (8/5): Received the rare “rocket ship” trip note in her debut, when she sprinted six lengths clear at the first call and was never threatened. She hammered for $375,000 at auction earlier this year despite a modest pedigree, and this possible freak looks like strictly the one to beat in the Astoria (which, oddly, will be contested nowhere near Astoria this year…); #6 VERNON VALLEY (2-1): Didn’t break well in her unveiling downstate, but she overcame it and got the job done by nearly three lengths over a muddy track. Like her stablemate in the Tremont, she’s got every right to improve with a clean start, and I think the outside draw could help her relax; #2 GENA B (2-1): Battled throughout last month and was beaten a neck while beating that day’s third-place finisher by almost six lengths. This barn isn’t known for success with debuting runners, so that effort was noteworthy, and first-call rider Kendrick Carmouche returns to ride.

R4

Sarir (MTO)
Frances Stanley
Thiene

#2 FRANCES STANLEY (12-1): Made it two wins in a row in her first start off the claim for Bill Morey and gets a tepid nod at a price in this wide-open turf sprint. She’s relatively inexperienced, with just three starts to her credit, and I think she may have more room to improve than some of her opponents; #1 THIENE (8-1): Makes her American debut after 12 starts and four wins overseas, and she’ll race with Lasix for the first time. I love that angle, and she showed some talent in France a season ago. I’m just wondering if this is maybe a bit shorter than she wants to go; #4 TALES OF THE HEART (3-1): Rallied to finish second in her U.S. debut at Keeneland and had some trouble going around the turn. Her connections thought enough to run her in some tough spots in Europe last season, and it wouldn’t be stunning if she won, but her running style does lend itself to finding trouble, and she’s done that a few times. At her likely price, I’ll take a mild stand against her.

R5

Hello Beauty
Saratoga Snow
Nonna Lynne

#12 HELLO BEAUTY (3-1): Is one of several very interesting horses on the AE list for this one, so watch scratches very carefully. If she gets to run, she’ll do so against New York-breds for the first time after five outings against open company. Her last two races, in particular, were far from bad, and she could appreciate the drop in class; #11 SARATOGA SNOW (10-1): Is the first AE on the list and hasn’t run since October, but I think she merits respect at a price if she draws in. Her two turf efforts were far from bad, and the combination of tactical speed and top gate rider Paco Lopez is a notable one; #5 NONNA LYNNE (7/2): Is the runner in the main body of the field I prefer most. She hasn’t run since September, but she broke badly that day. She’s been working steadily for Chad Brown and adds Lasix for her 2025 debut.

R6

Limes Don’t Lie
Pure Beauty
Velvet Vortex

#4 LIMES DON’T LIE (8-1): Probably needed her 2025 unveiling, but she was good enough to win anyway. She chased the classy Quietside here last summer before going to the sidelines, and she could get an ideal race shape here with plenty of early speed to sit off of; #7 PURE BEAUTY (6-1): Was a distant fifth in the Grade 3 Gazelle back in April and gets back to what’s probably the right level. She cuts back to a mile, which should help her, and the return of Lasix could also get her back to her early-season form; #8 VELVET VORTEX (2-1): Would probably be my top pick with a better draw, but this is far from an advantageous post out of the Wilson chute. In addition to being challenged to save ground, both horses to her outside have tactical speed and may go early, too. She’s talented, but given the circumstances, I’ll try to beat her.

R7

Future Is Now
Pandora’s Gift
Twirling Queen

#2 FUTURE IS NOW (2-1): Won this race a season ago and seeks to retain her Grade 2 Intercontinental Championship (if you bet against a wrestling reference being in this section this week, you lose). She’s won five of her last six starts, and she beat several of these rivals last time out in the Grade 3 Giant’s Causeway at Keeneland, including…; #1 PANDORA’S GIFT (3-1): …who was beaten a nose that day. She’s got back class, and it wouldn’t be stunning to see her turn the tables given the narrow margin last time, but she also hasn’t won since May of last year, and I’m wondering if her best efforts are behind her; #5 TWIRLING QUEEN (8-1): Won five of seven a season ago and went to the sidelines after a December clunker at Gulfstream. However, she’s been training well, she won last year’s Coronation Cup at this route, and she’ll have a chance at a bit of a price if she’s ready to run.

R8

Willy D’s
Surface to Air
Film Star

#4 WILLY D’S (9/2): Took a big step forward last month, when he was a close-up second in a very fast race for the level at Churchill Downs. Mike Maker’s one of the best at finding new levels with high-priced claims, and if he keeps improving, he could have a big chance here beneath first-call rider Luis Saez; #2 SURFACE TO AIR (8-1): Hasn’t run since December, but has been training well at Monmouth and is a much different horse when running with Lasix. Draw lines through his efforts against stakes company, and you’re left with a sheet that includes five races where he crossed the wire first; #8 FILM STAR (7/2): Has never finished worse than third in five local starts and has won here twice, including an easy score in the off-the-turf Lure last August. He was second to a solid runner last time out at this level, and he may have been compromised by being wide turning for home.

R9

Yo Daddy (MTO)
Major Dude
Intellect

#4 MAJOR DUDE (7/2): Has been running against some top-class horses for most of this season and hits me as the one to beat in the Grade 3 Poker. He won the Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale in December, contested the Grade 1 Pegasus Turf, and fell a nose short in the Grade 3 Canadian Turf. If he’s his usual self, I think he’ll be a handful; #2 INTELLECT (5-1): Might have needed his U.S. debut after a layoff of nearly a year, and he didn’t run terribly to be third that day. His European form from 2023 and early-2024 is solid, and he’s got every right to take a step forward second off the bench for powerhouse connections; #7 DEPICTION (10-1): Seems to find trouble with aplomb, but he’s got several speed figures that stack up reasonably well with this group, and he’ll be a big price. The faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be, and at least he’ll be going the right direction late.

R10

Smartest
Just So Pretty
Queens Fable

#9 SMARTEST (9/2): Ran a deceptively-big race in her unveiling, when she closed to be second in a race with zero early pace at Colonial Downs in July. She hasn’t raced since, but Graham Motion can get horses ready to go off the bench and the presence of Umberto Rispoli is notable; #10 JUST SO PRETTY (7/2): Is probably the main speed in the nightcap and comes into this one off of a tough beat at Keeneland. She could win if she gets loose, but she’s had ideal trips before and not gotten the job done, so we’re approaching “now or never” territory with this one; #1 QUEENS FABLE (5-1): May have needed her 2025 debut at Tampa, where she ran third in her first start since June. She’s been on the sidelines since March, but she adds blinkers for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz, Jr., hops aboard for the first time.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $200

We’re back with five days of racing in upstate New York. If you’re new to this section, we’ll look to manage our money effectively in this section and turn a profit over the course of this week. If the selections in The Pink Sheet’s pick box are “Handicapping 101,” this is “Handicapping 201” for players looking to get the most bang for their wagering buck.

Last summer was the best season I’ve ever had since this section started (thank you, May Day Ready!). We’ll look to keep the momentum going through Belmont Stakes weekend and, looking further down the road, the annual summer meet.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAYS: I’ll focus on linking my most likely winner of the day with three middle-priced horses in the next race. That strong lean is #8 STERLING SILVER in the eighth, the Critical Eye (a race where she’ll likely be an odds-on favorite). I’ll single her in $10 doubles that end with #2 SPINNING COLORS, #5 AWESOME CZECH, and #9 BROCKNARDINI in the ninth, the Mount Vernon.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: The Paddock Pastor, Race 5
Longshot: Alpine Giant, Race 3

R1

Awakened
Carloun
Proven Innocent

#2 AWAKENED (2-1): Hasn’t raced in nearly a year, but is a proven Grade 1-caliber steeplechase horse when he’s right. He took the Jonathan Sheppard here back in 2023, and if he’s ready to go off the bench, he’ll be a major player in the Beverly Steinman; #1 CARLOUN (7/2): Certainly looks like he controlling speed in this event, and that’s always dangerous. He won three in a row before being pulled up in his 2025 debut, and he should have every chance to dictate terms from the jump here; #5 PROVEN INNOCENT (5/2): Has a win and a second from two local starts and goes third off he bench in here. He was fourth in a Grade 1 last time out and gets in fairly light on weight, carrying just 146 pounds.

R2

Mo Plex
Train the Trainer
Soontobeking

#6 MO PLEX (2-1): Is an ultra-consistent sort who’s 4-for-4 going seven furlongs or shorter. That’s the exact trip he gets in the Mike Lee, and the drop from open company to facing New York-breds is notable. His usual race likely makes him tough to beat; #5 TRAIN THE TRAINER (3-1): Ran second to the talented Goal Oriented in his debut at Santa Anita before thumping overmatched maidens downstate last month. This is a significant class jump, and he’ll run without Lasix for the first time, but he’s also making just his third lifetime start and may have room to improve; #1 SOONTOBEKING (9/2): Is already making his 13th career start and boasts earnings of more than $363,000. He ran second behind #3 PRINCE VALIANT (5/2) last time out, but figures to do his best running late in a race with plenty of speed signed on. The rail draw, however, could be a problem for a horse that has found trouble quite a bit.

R3

Alpine Giant
No Ordinary Love
Bodegas

#3 ALPINE GIANT (12-1): Is a bit of a wacky pick, but I think there’s stuff to like at a big price. She was very green in her debut, when she threw a fit before the race and got spooked during it. The layoff is a concern, but she boasts several very strong local workouts and attracts Manny Franco in a race that doesn’t appear to have attracted any monsters for the level; #7 NO ORDINARY LOVE (6-1): Boasts a strong turf pedigree, being out of a More Than Ready mare that won a Grade 3 on the lawn at two. That mare, More Than Love, has thrown three other foals, and they’ve all won at least once; #1 BODEGAS (12-1): Was one-paced in her debut, which got rained off the turf and onto Aqueduct’s main track. Her pedigree, though, says she wants the lawn. She’s kin to two turf winners, she has a right to improve with a race under her belt, and Luis Saez sees fit to hop aboard.

R4

Bank Frenzy
Drake’s Passage
Locke and Key

#8 BANK FRENZY (7/5): Tried much tougher last time out in the Grade 3 Westchester, and he didn’t disgrace himself by running fourth. He’d previously reeled off four straight wins, and he figures to sit an ideal stalking trip in the Commentator over the same track where he won last year’s Evan Shipman; #5 DRAKE’S PASSAGE (4-1): Is an “all-or-nothing” sort of horse, and when he’s off his game, it’s not pretty. However, he’s run two of the best races of his career at the Spa, including last year’s renewal of this race, which he won in wire-to-wire fashion; #6 LOCKE AND KEY (8-1): Has shown an ability to close going two turns, albeit on the turf. That’s not a common trait in this group, one that features several horses with plenty of early zip. If they go very fast early, this one could clunk up for a piece of it at a price.

R5

The Paddock Pastor
Pay the Juice
Sounds Like a Plan

#10 THE PADDOCK PASTOR (3-1): Didn’t have a great trip in his return to New York last time out, but he still managed to run a solid second in a similar-level spot. Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back for trainer Amelia Green (who’s gotten off to a strong start on her own), and it seems like he’ll have plenty of pace to close into; #2 PAY THE JUICE (4-1): Came off the bench to run third in the race my top pick exits. He ran well twice here last summer (albeit going one turn, not two), and Flavien Prat hops back aboard for this one’s second start off the layoff; #4 SOUNDS LIKE A PLAN (5/2): Nearly stole the Woodhaven on the lead at a price, but I’ve got some doubts here. There’s other speed signed on, and I don’t think he’ll be able to shake loose early. Add in that he’s no standout on speed figures, and I think he’s an underlay at or near the morning line price.

R6

Accelerating
Kay Cup
Valtellina

#5 ACCELERATING (5-1): Ships back to New York after two clunkers at Oaklawn Park. That’s a quirky surface some horses just don’t care for, though, and her two starts here last summer were exceptional. Add in the two-back bullet work for trainer Steve Asmussen (an angle I always like), and I think there’s value here in the Bouwerie; #7 KAY CUP (9/5): Was excellent off the bench last time out, when she won by more than four lengths downstate. A similar type of effort would make her a major player, but she loses Lasix and runs up against a good group for the level. At her likely price, I’ll take a mild stand against her; #6 VALTELLINA (9/2): Has won two in a row and was a first-out winner at this route a season ago. The lack of Lasix on the jump up in class is a concern, but there’s also a chance her improved efforts are a result of her figuring things out with experience and maturity.

R7

Shadow Dragon (MTO)
Hush of a Storm
Born Dancer

#9 HUSH OF A STORM (2-1): Has made some noise against open stakes competition, most notably finishing third in the Grade 3 Kentucky Cup Classic two back. His return to New York was disappointing, but there seems to be a lot of early speed in the Kingston, and the return of Flavien Prat (who won on him twice a year ago) is a big plus; #10 BORN DANCER (8-1): Gets a rider switch to Joel Rosario second off the bench after finishing third in his return downstate. He’ll need to run without Lasix, which is a question mark, but he’s got some versatility to his running style and could provide some value at or near the morning line price; #3 BETTRLUCKYTHANGOOD (6-1): Hasn’t run since November, but has been working consistently and is another that should benefit from the likely race shape. He’s another that figures to benefit from a fast pace, and he’s a contender if he’s ready to run.

R8

Sterling Silver
P Mutter Pickle
Bernietakescharge

#8 STERLING SILVER (1-1): Figures to be the shortest-priced favorite of the day in the Critical Eye, and for good reason. She was a close-up second in the Grade 2 Ruffian against a much better group, and anything close to her effort in last year’s Johnstone Mile against a similar group would make her very, very tough to beat; #4 P MUTTER PICKLE (6-1): Tries two turns for the first time, but she’s a daughter of Vino Rosso, a very strong stamina influence. Her tactical speed should give her an ideal stalking trip, and it helps that she’s run well without Lasix in the past; #9 BERNIETAKESCHARGE (8-1): Likely needs the lead to fire her best shot, so the far outside post isn’t ideal. However, her two and three-back wins were sharp, and she may have simply hated the mud last time out in the Biogio’s Rose.

R9

Awesome Czech
Brocknardini
Spinning Colors

#5 AWESOME CZECH (4-1): Came flying late in her 2025 debut, when she was beaten just a neck in her first start since December. She went 2-for-2 over this turf course a year ago, including a stakes win, and a logical step forward would give her a big shot in the Mount Vernon; #9 BROCKNARDINI (5-1): Has flashed plenty of talent at times in the past, but she’s also had her share of issues. She hasn’t run since October, but her resume includes a stakes win against open company, and she figures to benefit from there being plenty of early speed in this field; #2 SPINNING COLORS (8-1): Comes back into the New York-bred ranks after several starts against open company, and she’s the one I most prefer of the likely pace-setters. She boasts two wins in three local starts, and unlike some of the other speed horses in here, she can put forth a strong effort while sitting just off the pace.

R10

Coach Case
Sir Lawrence
Sir Oscar

#4 COACH CASE (5/2): Closed well to finish second in his debut back in April despite the early pace being on the slower side. Some may have been disappointed with the effort as the even-money favorite, but he showed some maturity and should improve with experience and a few speed horses drawn to his inside; #11 SIR LAWRENCE (6-1): Draws a tough post in his unveiling for Chad Brown, but he’s bred to be a very good turf horse. He’s by Oscar Performance and out of the mare J’ray, who herself won multiple graded stakes races on the lawn, so he’s got every right to be a good one; #1 SIR OSCAR (9/2): Has been gelded since a fourth-place finish at Tampa in April and goes against New York-breds for the first time. Given his experience and the ultimate equipment change, he’s got a right to move forward, and he did come home fairly quickly behind a next-out winner last time out.