Pink Sheet | Andrew Champagne

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (9/5/22; CLOSING DAY)

Posted on September 4 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $949.20

It’s closing day at Saratoga, and that means it’s time for me to say thanks. First of all, thank you to editor Joe Boyle, who edits not just The Pink Sheet, but the main sports sections of The Saratogian and The Troy Record. In an age where deadlines get earlier and earlier and staffs get smaller and smaller, this isn’t easy to do. I’m also grateful for a decision made by Catena Media, which graciously agreed to allow me to continue my duties in this capacity when I got hired by that company in January.

Thank you to the New York Racing Association for another stellar Saratoga season. I’m a tough critic sometimes, but I have high standards because I grew up going to this place, which doubles as one of the last cathedrals in American horse racing. In particular, kudos to the TV talent and crew that put together the FOX Sports broadcasts, which bring Saratoga into my living room 3,000 miles away as effectively as anything possibly could.

Finally, I’d like to thank you, the reader. It’s a privilege to be able to put together content enjoyed by tens of thousands of people each summer. I hope I’ve been able to make you some money. If not, we’ve got one more day to do it!

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Neither horse I used on top in the sixth was anywhere close. I dropped $36.

MONDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to wait until the very last two races of the meet for my final wagers. The more I look at #11 SUE ELLEN MISHKIN in the 12th, the more I like her. I’ll have a $50 win ticket on that one, and I’ll also single her to finish off a $20 cold double that begins with #4 GULFPORT in the 11th (the Grade 1 Hopeful). See you next summer!

TOTAL WAGERED: $70.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Crowding Out, Race 4
Longshot: Night Ops, Race 8

Souffle
Atomic Girl
Kara Para

#15 SOUFFLE: Needs a lot of defections in order to draw in off the AE list but will be formidable if she does. She did everything but win in her debut, where she lost by just a nose, and a repeat of that performance would make her strictly the one to beat; #5 ATOMIC GIRL: Has been training very forwardly ahead of her debut, and she’s bred to love the turf. Her dam was a Grade 3 winner on the lawn, and she sold for $50,000 at auction, which is a lot considering her sire’s stud fee is just $2,500; #1 KARA PARA: Makes her unveiling for a barn whose first-time starters aren’t often cranked-up, but she exits a bullet drill at Belmont and is another who likely wants turf. Offspring of The Factor tend to be turf horses, and she’s one of the ones to consider in a wide-open Closing Day opener.

Atlanta’s Acuna
Blame It On Daddy
Uncle Marty

#5 ATLANTA’S ACUNA: Makes his debut after a string of solid local drills for a trainer whose first-out numbers are very strong. This son of Cross Traffic is out of a stakes-winning mare, one that’s thrown two winners from three foals to race; #6 BLAME IT ON DADDY: Was second behind a runaway winner in his debut last month and retains the riding services of Luis Saez. He’s got every right to move forward, but I can’t help thinking his best running will come going longer given his pedigree; #3 UNCLE MARTY: Debuted going two turns on turf, which isn’t an easy ask. He didn’t run well that day, but this outfit does far better with second-time starters than first-out runners, and his last two workouts hint that he’s come out of his first race in good form.

City Man
Mouillage
Emaraaty

#5 CITY MAN: Ran a career-best race to win the Grade 3 Forbidden Apple early in the meet. His races around two turns seem far better than his one-turn efforts, and his flexibility should give Joel Rosario plenty of options in the Grade 3 Bernard Baruch; #2 MOUILLAGE: Was second in the Grade 3 Canadian Turf at Gulfstream behind Mira Mission, who recently ran second in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer. He’s been working consistently on the Oklahoma track’s turf course, and he’s never missed the board in 12 lifetime starts; #6 EMARAATY: Won a stakes-caliber allowance event here last month to move to 3-for-4 lifetime over this turf course. Flavien Prat rides back for the meet’s leading trainer, and he’d benefit if a pace battle materializes early.

Crowding Out
Unlock (MTO)
Mostly Harmless

#3 CROWDING OUT: Takes a gigantic drop in class after faltering as a 5/2 favorite in a first-level allowance race in mid-August. This barn wheels her back pretty quickly, by their standards, but anything close to her two-back score over an impressive next-out winner would make her a formidable favorite; #8 MOSTLY HARMLESS: Has had plenty of chances and is a maiden running against winners. However, she’s a closer in a race with plenty of early speed, so it wouldn’t shock me if she clunked up for a piece of it at a big price; #1 SMOKIN’ HOT KITTY: Ran fourth against starter allowance foes and drops down to what’s probably the right level. The rail draw is a tricky one, but her two-back win at this route was good and she’s a contender if Flavien Prat can work out a trip.

Aidanike
Backyard Money
She Caught My Eye

#5 AIDANIKE: Hasn’t misfired in her 2022 campaign, which has included three wins from six starts. Unlike many of her rivals, she can sit back and do her best running late, which could come in handy given what figures to be a pretty fast pace set by several of these runners; #6 BACKYARD MONEY: Has run well up here twice this summer and gets Lasix for the first time in this spot. The cutback from seven furlongs to six could help her, and she’s another that doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well; #4 SHE CAUGHT MY EYE: Wired a field of maiden claimers off a long layoff and tries winners for the first time. This is a considerable class test, but the most recent drill was a good one and first-call rider Junior Alvarado retains the mount for Hall of Famer Bill Mott.

Sweet Mystery (MTO)
Schwartz entry
New Ginya

SCHWARTZ ENTRY: I prefer #1 WHATLOVELOOKSLIKE, whose two local efforts this season have been very good. She’s a head away from being 2-for-2 in those starts, and she should get plenty of pace to run at (especially with the presence of barn buddy #1A JUSTOK IS NOT OK); #2 NEW GINYA: Has been very close in her last two tries at this level and has every right to break through here. She could sit close to the pace beneath Dylan Davis, who’s been riding very well since coming back from his way-too-long suspension for his role in an accident earlier in the meet; #7 LOOKIN TO FLY: Beat a group of restricted claimers two back before being left with too much to do last time out. Still, she was beaten less than three lengths by my top selection, and the two-back win rider returns to the saddle here.

Radio Red
Sounds Spooky
Nobilis

#10 RADIO RED: Draws a cushy outside post for his debut in this wide-open baby race for state-breds. His pedigree is very modest, but he’s been training forwardly for this outfit and attracts Joel Rosario, who probably had a few options; #8 SOUNDS SPOOKY: Merits respect based on the connections alone, and this $100,000 yearling purchase exits a solid four-furlong gate drill. All four of this dam’s runners to date are winners, though I wonder if this one maybe wants a bit more ground than this six-furlong trip; #2 NOBILIS: May or may not run, as he’s entered in a spot on Sunday as well. However, he’s been working well for George Weaver prior to his unveiling (whenever that is), and we may get a bit of a price.

Night Ops
American Tattoo
Portos

#3 NIGHT OPS: Drops way down in class after spending most of the last few seasons running against stakes company. This field is a good one for the level, but it doesn’t contain runners like Maxfield and Art Collector, who appear in this one’s running lines, and I think he’ll be the one they have to hold off; #8 AMERICAN TATTOO: Got loose on the lead last time out at Keeneland and responded with one of the best efforts of his career. I’m not sure he’ll be quite so comfortable up top early, but of the likely pace-setters, he’s the one I want most; #7 PORTOS: Cuts back after running fourth to stablemate Fearless in the 1 3/4-mile Birdstone, and at a minimum, you know the 1 1/8-mile journey won’t be what gets him beat. This is another runner getting class relief, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., takes the call for Todd Pletcher.

Bold Victory (MTO)
Digital Software
Reckless Spirit

#1 DIGITAL SOFTWARE: Was protected off the layoff last time and cruised home over a weaker group in a race he may very well have needed. I think he’ll be better second off the bench in this spot, and that he has a big chance to record his third local win in his fourth start over this turf course; #2 RECKLESS SPIRIT: Was headstrong last time when fourth as a 2-1 favorite at this level. That happened here last year, too, and perhaps he prefers Belmont, but his best race would be good enough to beat these; #7 SPLENDID SUMMER: Chased my top pick last time out but may be moving forward in the back half of his 3-year-old campaign. Further improvement makes him a major player here, and the 8-1 morning line price hits me as an overlay (especially given the connections involved).

R10

Cocktail Moments
Jane Grey
More Ammo

#1 COCKTAIL MOMENTS: Is a tepid top pick in the final race out of the Wilson chute this summer. She hasn’t won in a while, but has been running almost exclusively against stakes competition and may have had an excuse last time out given the unlucky trip she had. There’s some speed in this race that could set up for what she wants to do; #3 JANE GREY: Stretches out for Bill Mott after a pair of seconds going shorter. This is her third start off of a long layoff and just the fourth start of her career, so there are plenty of reasons to expect a step forward; #9 MORE AMMO: Almost certainly bounced last time out, when she was nowhere at odds of 2-1 after a big first-out win at Aqueduct. She’s been training well at Monmouth (which is no longer an automatic disqualifying factor for horses from this outfit), and a flashback to her debut performance would put her right there.

R11

Gulfport
Mo Strike
Forte

#4 GULFPORT: Was second in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special, and while I’m not sure checking around the turn cost him a win, he most certainly would’ve been closer to the winner. A cleaner journey would make this Steve Asmussen trainee a handful in the Grade 1 Hopeful; #5 MO STRIKE: Has done nothing wrong to date for Brad Cox, and his two-start career includes a nice win in the Grade 3 Sanford. He ran like a horse that won’t be bothered by more ground, and we may not have seen the best of him yet; #2 FORTE: Was fourth as the 7/5 favorite in the Sanford, but don’t be fooled by the trip notes that say he had no kick. He was moving well late over a very tiring track, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see an improved effort here.

R12

Sue Ellen Mishkin
Cupid’s Heart
Tosconova Beauty

#11 SUE ELLEN MISHKIN: Is very inconsistent, but her best effort would make her the one to beat in the final race of the summer. One of her two wins came here in her debut, so we know she likes this track, and the outside draw is a big plus, too; #1 CUPID’S HEART: Hasn’t run in more than nine months, but gets Lasix for the first time and comes in off of a four-furlong bullet drill over this track. She seems to be doing well ahead of her 2022 debut, and she’s a major player provided she’s ready to run; #2 TOSCONOVA BEAUTY: Has won four of eight career starts and was third in a similar spot a few weeks ago. She gets a huge rider switch to John Velazquez and has enough tactical speed to be sitting in a great spot early on.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (9/4/22)

Posted on September 3 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $985.20

Out of respect for my editor, I’ll focus earlier on in the card than what will likely be my biggest real-life play of the day. Since I can’t, in good conscience, push up against a deadline the day before a holiday, my play cannot be in the Sunday finale, which is set to go off just before 7 pm Eastern time.

Having said that, know that I prefer Mouly to the heavily-favored entry that’s even-money on the morning line. If deadlines were not an object, I’d key Mouly on top of exactas with that entry and Roz, and punch a win bet on my top selection as well.

As an aside, 12 races is just too many. I know NYRA is trying to jam in as many races as they can, for obvious reasons, but I can’t help but recall the 2013 meet, where they did the same thing and burned everyone out very, very early.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: It was a very good day in this section. General Jim kicked off the card with a win at odds of 7/2, and a Pick Five ticket built around getting that one home and beating Up to the Mark achieved both objectives en route to cashing (though not for quite as much as I thought it might rooting it home). In total, the $68 investment returned $272.25.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: Instead of a play in the 12th and final, I’ll focus on the sixth, a fascinating maiden race for 2-year-old fillies. I’ll key #3 ST. BENEDICTS PREP and #4 PURE PAULINE on top of $5 exactas that use those two, #5 STUNNINGLY, and #8 MY BETSY underneath. I’ll also play an additional $3 exacta box using my top two horses.

TOTAL WAGERED: $36.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Wonder Wheel, Race 9
Longshot: Prouver, Race 7

Disarmed
Nobilis
Bobby the Tank

#11 DISARMED: Had horrible racing luck in his debut, when he lost all chance after checking behind a rival. He needs a scratch to draw in off of the AE list, but if he winds up running in the Sunday opener, I think he’ll be very tough to beat; #3 NOBILIS: Has been working very well for trainer George Weaver and looks sharp coming into his unveiling. He sold for just $17,000 at auction last fall, but the drills indicate he may have plenty of potential; #2 BOBBY THE TANK: Showed brief speed on dirt before fading to finish fourth behind a runaway winner. It wouldn’t surprise me if he goes favored here, but this barn doesn’t go dirt-to-turf with 2-year-olds often, so this is a curious move for one that figures to be a short price.

Happy Farm
Greeley and Ben
Hero Tiger

#3 HAPPY FARM: Has won two in a row, including a race at this level and route early in the met. He went from one good barn to another that day, but Flavien Prat sees fit to ride back and could guide him to yet another ideal stalking trip just behind a pretty fast pace; #2 GREELEY AND BEN: Has shown up in the entries several times this summer, and perhaps this is the time we get to see this hard-knocker run. He’s won 20 of 34 career starts, including several stakes races, and anything close to his best would give him a shot; #4 HERO TIGER: Ships in from Monmouth Park, where he most recently ran third in a swiftly-run five-furlong sprint. He has tactical speed, but doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well, which could give Javier Castellano a few options out of the gate.

Vegas Weekend (MTO)
Charge Account
Forever Dreaming

#7 CHARGE ACCOUNT: Exits a win in a similar race last month and goes first off the claim for Mike Maker. The new trainer has enlisted leading rider Irad Ortiz, Jr., to take the mount, and her tactical speed certainly looks like a plus in this event; #4 FOREVER DREAMING: Almost certainly needed her return race off a three-month break, and that race wasn’t on her preferred surface. She gets back to the lawn here, and she flashed enough talent against better horses earlier this year to make me think she’s got a shot here; #2 STATE CROWN: Has won two of her last three and ships in after winning an optional claiming event at Presque Isle. Her two-back clunker is forgivable given the marathon distance, and I think she may come rolling late for a piece of this one.

Cousteau
Critical Threat
Ampersand

#5 COUSTEAU: Takes a huge drop to this restricted, bottom-level claiming event just two starts after winning a starter allowance race at Belmont. He earned a career-high 83 Beyer Speed Figure last time out when second for more than double this tag, and his normal race crushes these; #2 CRITICAL THREAT: Is another dropping in class, and he does so after running third for a $25,000 tag last month. He hasn’t won since January, but Luis Saez sees fit to ride and perhaps he can channel his late-2021 form, which was quite good; #10 AMPERSAND: Romped over non-winners of two last time out and was claimed by Peter Walder. This is a step up in class, but both of his wins have come over this surface and Walder does well with new acquisitions.

Athenry
Sheriff Bianco
Me ’n Sap

#8 ATHENRY: Was a close-up fourth at this route last time out and looks like one of only a few types that can pass others late in this turf sprint. I think he’ll get a pace to rate behind and be able to rally late beneath Manny Franco; #6 SHERIFF BIANCO: Hit the front in the stretch last time before settling for third, a neck behind that day’s winner. The runner-up came back to win at next asking, and of the likely front-runners, the likely favorite hits me as the most likely winner; #4 ME ’N SAP: Was beaten a nose at this route two starts ago, albeit against weaker competition. She likely needs to step up in order to be a win threat, but she’s a type that can close in a race full of speed, which means she can’t be ignored underneath.

Pure Pauline
St. Benedicts Prep
Stunningly

#4 PURE PAULINE: Has been training forwardly ahead of her debut for Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher and is bred to be any kind. This daughter of Curlin is out of a Grade 2 winner, and as stupid as it sounds, when Stonestreet names a runner Pauline (after Stonestreet head Barbara Banke’s mother), the horse in question can usually run; #3 ST. BENEDICTS PREP: Chased freakish debutante Prank last time out and has every right to improve now that that buzzsaw has graduated out of the maiden ranks. A recent five-furlong drill indicates a step forward could be in the offing; #5 STUNNINGLY: Exits a key race at Churchill on the Fourth of July. Winner Naughty Gal won the Grade 2 Adirondack, and that day’s runner-up came back to win at next asking, too. She’s got some speed and is another with potential to build off of her debut.

Free Look
Avant
Prouver

#4 FREE LOOK: Was third behind next-out stakes winner Be Your Best in her debut, where she was taken back to last of 10 before coming with a rally. Flavien Prat sees fit to ride back, and I’m expecting a move forward in her second career start; #9 AVANT: Hammered for $360,000 at auction last summer, and this daughter of Uncle Mo has a world-class bottom-side pedigree. She’s kin to two stakes winners, and her third dam, Bound, is the second dam of champion and stalwart sire Blame; #7 PROUVER: Is by first-crop sire Justify, whose offspring have hit the ground running to this point in the season. Dam Ready to Act won stakes races on turf and dirt, and when Luis Saez rides for this barn, it usually means the horse he’s on is live.

Palm Cottage
Boston Post Road
Piece of My Heart

#6 PALM COTTAGE: Posted a 92 Beyer Speed Figure when romping at Ellis Park in her 2022 debut. Whether or not she runs back to that effort is anyone’s guess, but I don’t necessarily think she’ll have to. This spot doesn’t seem to have come up particularly strong for the level; #4 BOSTON POST ROAD: Just missed in a race out of the Wilson chute last month, and her record looks far better if you ignore the race that came right before a very long layoff. The question is, is this six-furlong distance a bit shorter than she wants to go?; #1 PIECE OF MY HEART: Hasn’t won in a long, long time, but has shown an affinity for clunking up for minor awards. She may very well get the setup to do just that in this spot, which seems to boast plenty of early speed.

Great Workout (MTO)
Dubb entry
Frank’s Art

DUBB ENTRY: I prefer #1A CATCH THAT PARTY, who rallied from 10th to win last time out despite not having much pace to run at. He’s won two of his last three outings, and the loss came in a race where two of the three runners that beat him came back to win at next asking; #5 FRANK’S ART: Showed his debut wasn’t a fluke when he finished a close-up third in his first try against winners. Joel Rosario gets off, but Flavien Prat’s far from a slouch, and he’d benefit from a faster-than-expected early pace; #4 TIMBUKTU: Was marooned on the far outside last time out and surrendered plenty of ground. He gets a better draw here, and a repeat of his two-back effort would give this Brad Cox trainee a chance at a bit of a price.

R10

La Victoria
Succulent
Cape Cod Causeway

#3 LA VICTORIA: Has taken a bunch of money in her career to date (largely because of the connections and dam La Verdad), but she’s found a home going long and nearly broke her maiden off of an 11-month break last time out. She seems like the main speed in this two-turn, inner-turf affair, and if she gets comfortable second off the bench, she could get brave; #2 SUCCULENT: Rallied from last of 12 to be second beaten just a half-length earlier this summer. That was easily a career-best race for her, and whether or not she can replicate that is a valid question, but David Donk has enjoyed a very good meet and could have this one primed; #4 CAPE COD CAUSEWAY: Was second in his local debut earlier this summer at a big price. It’s been a long meet for this barn, but it’s possible this filly’s getting better in the back half of her 3-year-old season, and a repeat of the last-out effort could get her a piece of this easily enough.

R11

Wonder Wheel
Just Cindy
Naughty Gal

#9 WONDER WHEEL: Is a perfect 2-for-2 and hasn’t really been tested yet. Her win in the Debutante at Churchill Downs was exceptional, and she’s put forth several head-turning drills in the mornings ahead of her New York debut in the Grade 1 Spinaway; #5 JUST CINDY: Is also 2-for-2 with a last-out stakes score, as she cruised home in the Grade 3 Schuylerville on Opening Day. The stretch-out to seven furlongs shouldn’t be a problem, and she’s shown she can stalk and pounce, which could be a valuable asset here; #4 NAUGHTY GAL: Won the Grade 3 Adirondack despite lugging out badly turning for home. The field she beat that day was a weaker group, but if Jose Ortiz can keep her on a steadier path, she’ll have a chance to contend at a square price.

R12

Mouly
Dubb entry
Roz

#3 MOULY: Ships up from Gulfstream Park to face New York-breds for the first time. This barn has been firing at this stand, and while the fields she’s run against in Florida haven’t been any great shakes, she may benefit from running against state-bred competition in the Sunday finale; DUBB ENTRY: #1 TOUGH STREET is probably the one the public will bet dropping down in class for the meet’s leading trainer. She’s got plenty of early speed, but it’s also not like she’ll be alone on the front end, and there are legitimate stamina questions. She’s not illogical, but in the words of the late, great Russ Harris, demand value; #10 ROZ: Has a sheet that looks far better if you solely focus on her sprint races. She’s never missed the board in three starts at seven furlongs or shorter, and she’s shown an ability to stalk the pace, which could give her first run turning for home.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (9/3/22)

Posted on September 2 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $780.95

Katie Davis returned to the saddle Friday, and her comeback was met with the proper pomp and circumstance on the NYRA broadcast. She’s been through a lot the past few years, both good (getting married and becoming a mom) and bad (the inexcusable, indefensible, demeaning, degrading rule requiring horses ridden by her and husband Trevor McCarthy to be coupled, one that’s since thankfully been stricken from the books).

I worked for HRTV prior to that network being acquired by TVG (now FanDuel TV). One of the last things HRTV did prior to that was a feature on the Davis family as part of the “Inside Information” series. Almost all of those productions have been lost and aren’t available online. This one, however, has been preserved.

Side note: If anyone out there reading this has copies of all of these “Inside Information” shows, can we get those uploaded? Those are some of the best racing history pieces produced in the last few decades, and I’m proud to have been associated with the network that put them together.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Meat Loaf once said, “two outta three ain’t bad.” I say, “one outta three is serviceable.” My first and third $10 win bets didn’t hit, but best bet Wicked Halo took the Prioress and allowed me to salvage a $24 profit.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to take a few stands early in the program grounded in two opinions. I really like #8 GENERAL JIM in the opener, and I think #6 UP TO THE MARK is a very vulnerable favorite in the third. I’ll play the early Pick Five, and my 50-cent ticket reads as follows: 8 with 3,6,7,8 with 3,4,5,8 with 3 with 2,4,5,7,8,11. I’ll also have a $20 win ticket on General Jim as well.

TOTAL WAGERED: $68.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: General Jim, Race 1
Longshot: Fightertown, Race 2

General Jim
Ari Gold
Certified Loverboy

#8 GENERAL JIM: Didn’t run badly when third in his debut sprinting on dirt, and I think he’ll move forward considerably on the grass with a start under his belt. His dam was stakes-placed on turf, and his female family includes the dam of Grade 3-winning turfer Tasha’s Miracle; #3 ARI GOLD: Is a regally-bred son of Medaglia d’Oro who’s kin to Grade 2-placed 2-year-old Petruchio. His bottom-side pedigree includes plenty of distance, which is fantastic, but while he’s working well and is a logical favorite, it’s interesting to note he doesn’t have a single turf work on his sheet; #13 CERTIFIED LOVERBOY: Needs a few defections to draw in but merits respect if he does. He was third in his turf debut last month and has a pedigree that hints two turns won’t be a problem.

Fightertown
Powerful
Upgrade

#3 FIGHTERTOWN: Has been working extremely well for a trainer that doesn’t always ask a lot of horses that are yet to run. He’s by Into Mischief, out of a mare that’s kin to champion 2-year-old Vindication, and between his pedigree and his work tab, that 10-1 morning line price hits me as a significant overlay; #7 POWERFUL: Just missed in his debut earlier this summer, where he was second beaten a head. They didn’t finish all that quickly that day, and his recent works are on the slower side, but he did earn a 75 Beyer Speed Figure, which may be good enough to win this if he can repeat that effort; #8 UPGRADE: Didn’t break all that well in his debut, when he was a distant third behind one runaway winner and one next-out runaway winner. That race hits me as a key one, and he’s a candidate to improve with experience and a smoother start.

Tiwanaku
Strong Quality
Seal Beach

#4 TIWANAKU: Has run well twice since being claimed by Tom Amoss and was most recently third behind Keepmeinmind, who we’ll see in a Grade 1 later on in the program. The cutback to a mile should be to his liking, and anything close to his career-best effort two back at Churchill would make him tough to catch; #5 STRONG QUALITY: Improved in all three starts this winter at Fair Grounds and has been training very well ahead of his first try since March. It’s possible he needs a race given the layoff of more than five months, but it’s also possible he’s a 3-year-old that’s grown into himself in the back half of the season; #3 SEAL BEACH: Tried turf last time out and clearly hated it, so I have no problem drawing a line through that race. His 2-year-old campaign saw him run into one buzzsaw after another (including Epicenter, My Prankster, and Rattle N Roll), and while this isn’t a weak spot, it’s far weaker than some of the ones we’ve seen him in over the past year.

Annapolis
Celestial City
Fuerteventura

#3 ANNAPOLIS: Was a good second last time out in the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby and may be the shortest price on today’s program. The cutback in distance should only help him, and there are no monsters like Nations Pride here in the Grade 3 Saranac; #1 CELESTIAL CITY: Rallied to be third in the Grade 2 Hall of Fame, and that day’s runner-up was an impressive next-out winner of the Better Talk Now. The question is, can he get the trip he needs without much pace signed on, and can he do it from a tricky inside post?; #5 FUERTEVENTURA: Won three in a row before misfiring in the Grade 3 Marine at Woodbine. It wouldn’t surprise me if he was forwardly-placed in here given the relative lack of early zip, and a repeat of his two-back, stakes-winning effort would likely get him a piece of this event.

Cousin Andrew (MTO)
Blinding Light
Custom Bobby’s

#4 BLINDING LIGHT: Responded to the drop in class by earning the diploma at this route against a weaker group. While class is a fair question, the 83 Beyer Speed Figure off a four-month layoff is encouraging, and another step forward for a barn that excels with new acquisitions isn’t out of the question; #7 CUSTOM BOBBY’S: Rallied to be fourth at Monmouth last time out despite some issues at the gate. His two-back win at Belmont was solid, and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., is encouraging; #5 KING MOONRACER: Has had two nightmare trips up here this summer. While he hasn’t won in a while and may have turned into a horse that just finds trouble, he’s certainly got the ability to win this wide-open event if he finally gets smooth sailing.

Champions Dream
Cagliostro
Mindtap

#9 CHAMPIONS DREAM: Hammered for $425,000 at auction earlier this year and has been training very, very well ahead of his debut. Offspring of Justify have gotten off to very strong starts, and while this barn is just so-so with first-time starters, one has to think he’s the one to beat if he runs to his impressive work tab; #10 CAGLIOSTRO: Sold for $385,000 and is another first-time starter working well for a barn that doesn’t boast exceptional numbers with debuting runners. The outside draw is a big plus, and there’s plenty of class on the bottom side of his pedigree if you dig a little bit; #2 MINDTAP: Was a $725,000 yearling purchase and is bred to be any kind. This son of Tapit is kin to multiple Grade 1 winner Curalina, and he’s worked well, but the lone turf work on August 19th raises more questions than answers.

Elite Power
Roman entry
Hoist the Gold

#5 ELITE POWER: Comes in off of back-to-back impressive scores at Churchill Downs and has clearly come into his own as a 4-year-old for a barn that knows what to do with maturing horses. If the Churchill form comes with him in this spot, he’ll be a very formidable favorite; ROMAN ENTRY: Both #1 GREELEY AND BEN and #1A AMUNDSON are logical contenders. The former has won 20 of 34 career starts, the latter comes in off of a nice win over state-breds, and both seem well-meant in this spot; #7 HOIST THE GOLD: Takes a significant class drop after chasing Gunite in the Grade 2 Amsterdam last month. He’s been running against stakes foes for most of the season, and his running style could mean he benefits from the hot pace that’s likely to materialize.

Juan Valdez
Dubyuhnell
Crupi

#8 JUAN VALDEZ: Has a price tag and a work tab that’ll really wake you up when you’re looking at this race (low-hanging fruit, I know). He’s a half-brother to Grade 1 winner and top sire Constitution, Luis Saez sees fit to ride for Shug McGaughey, and I think he’s got a big shot in a fascinating 2-year-old maiden race; #4 DUBYUHNELL: Sold for $400,000 last year at Keeneland and is another with a flashy tab and a pedigree to match. His dam was a multiple Grade 3 winner, and she’s already thrown stakes-winning 2-year-old Cazadero, among others; #10 CRUPI: Rallied from last to be third in his unveiling last month, and the experience edge is a real plus. I’m just not sure of the quality of that race, though, and the early pace did certainly set up for him to pick up the pieces and salvage a minor award.

Analyze It
Eyes On Target
Graded On a Curve

#2 ANALYZE IT: Has a career that includes a third-place finish in the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Mile, and he’s a handful when he’s right. His sheet includes a bunch of layoff lines, and dropping in for a tag is alarming, but these are aggressive connections that want owner and trainer titles, so it doesn’t concern me as much as it otherwise might; #10 EYES ON TARGET: Won three in a row not long ago and hasn’t run a bad one since being claimed by Mike Maker in December. He’s got some early speed and figures to be prominent early, though he might lose some ground from his outside post; #5 GRADED ON A CURVE: Is another runner from this barn that’s had his issues but is a handful when he’s right. He’s won four of six starts since October of 2020, and while he does exit state-bred competition for this one, his speed figures say he’s not out of his element.

R10

War Like Goddess
Virginia Joy
Temple City Terror

#4 WAR LIKE GODDESS: Goes for her second Grade 2 Flower Bowl victory in a row, which would double as her ninth in 11 career starts and seventh in her last eight. She’s been the queen of this division for a while, and anything close to her usual effort puts her in the winner’s circle; #3 VIRGINIA JOY: May very well inherit the lead by default in what sure seems like a paceless turf marathon. If she gets comfortable, she could prove tough to catch, and she capitalized on that sort of trip in the Grade 2 Sheepshead Bay, which she won in a romp; #6 TEMPLE CITY TERROR: Has chased my top pick on a few occasions, including last time out when she was second in the Grade 2 Glens Falls. This barn has had a long meet to this point, but Luis Saez lands here when he probably had several options.

R11

Olympiad
First Captain
Americanrevolution

#2 OLYMPIAD: May have bounced off of a career-best two-back effort when a distant fourth in the Grade 1 Whitney. That prior performance, where he cruised home in the Grade 2 Stephen Foster, resulted in a 111 Beyer Speed Figure, and I think we see that version of this horse in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup; #6 FIRST CAPTAIN: Dueled between horses when second in the Grade 2 Suburban, and that’s not an ideal spot for a horse that’s shown he wants to be outside of his rivals. The draw should help him negotiate that trip, and the two-back bullet drill over this surface is encouraging; #5 AMERICANREVOLUTION: Is one of four Todd Pletcher trainees in this eight-horse field and got back to his 2021 form when second in the Stephen Foster. He won the Albany over this surface a season ago and will be a major player if the 1 1/4-mile distance isn’t too far for him.

R12

Patient Capital
Midnight Worker
Mr Breadwinner

#6 PATIENT CAPITAL: Is a “hold your nose” option in a restricted claiming race where it seems every runner could fit that description. He takes a gigantic drop in class out of an allowance race at Ellis Park, recently fired a strong four-furlong drill over this surface, and has at least shown an ability to pass others late; #10 MIDNIGHT WORKER: Spent part of his 2-year-old season in graded stakes company, but came back with an absolute clunker in a turf mile event a few weeks ago. A return to his 2021 form would give him a big chance, but the outside draw is a concern; #3 MR BREADWINNER: Comes in off of an allowance race and, in an odd quirk, has yet to run over a fast dirt track. If he gets that here, perhaps there’s room for improvement in a race where I’d advise players to go as deep as humanly possible.

R13

Izeamalibumoon
Quick Power Nap
Eli Dancer

#8 IZEAMALIBUMOON: Missed by a nose to a former stablemate last time out and was claimed out of that race by an outfit that doesn’t reach in for many runners. She’s run well in a pair of turf sprints to date and retains the riding services of Irad Ortiz, Jr., in the Saturday finale; #11 QUICK POWER NAP: Hasn’t missed the board in three starts to date and drops in for a tag for the first time. The far outside post is a problem, but few ride this turf course better than Joel Rosario, and it wouldn’t be a huge shock if this one works out a winning trip; #9 ELI DANCER: Has a record that looks far better if you toss her two-back clunker, which came off a significant layoff. Her turf debut last time out was a solid second at this level and route, and she doesn’t have to move forward much to be a major player.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (9/2/22)

Posted on September 1 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $756.95

You’re going to hear a lot about Flightline in the next few days. The undefeated John Sadler trainee will go postward in Saturday’s Grade 1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar, and he’s been installed as the 1/5 morning line favorite. If Flightline takes to the 1 1/4-mile distance at all, he almost certainly wins. However, I find it very tough to get enthusiastic about a horse that may only run three times in an entire season.

I miss when horses just showed up. I want our best horses able to run consistently at ages two, three, four, and beyond. With very rare exceptions, that doesn’t really happen anymore. Horses either run fast or run often, with very little in the way of a middle ground. The breed’s simply far weaker than it used to be, and trainers are doing what they can to keep those runners healthy.

Flightline may win, and he may do so in sensational fashion. However, how can fans of all levels get behind racing’s most talented runner if that horse barely runs? Fans want stars they can follow and be excited by. With horses running fewer and fewer times per season, those runners are tougher to come by, and that’s a real shame.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Beatable favorite Dream of Change was nowhere in the seventh, but so was Masabeeh, who I leaned on heavily in this space. I dropped $30.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to keep this simple with a trio of $10 win bets throughout the card. I’ll have action on #10 LISHEEN (race 5), #1 WICKED HALO (race 9), and #4 MEDIA SENSATION (race 10). The bookend horses may provide value in wide-open races, and I think Wicked Halo may prove very tough in the Friday feature, the Grade 2 Prioress.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Wicked Halo, Race 9
Longshot: Lisheen, Race 5

Boy Is She a Lady
My Sweet Summer
Nice ’n Spicy

#5 BOY IS SHE A LADY: Has worked very well ahead of her unveiling in what looks like a wide-open race for state-bred maidens. Her dam is a Grade 3 winner that has thrown five winners to date, and judging by the drills, she looks like a runner, too; #1 MY SWEET SUMMER: Debuts for a barn whose lone starter at this stand won the Grade 3 Schuylerville. This daughter of Accelerate has worked strongly at Keeneland, and she may be talented enough to overcome the tricky inside draw; #10 NICE ’N SPICY: Was one-paced in her debut on turf and may not have wanted the grass. This barn’s runners usually improve with experience, and offspring of first-crop sire Sharp Azteca have shown plenty of ability.

Piece of My Heart (MTO)
Mail Order
Mischievous Dream

#3 MAIL ORDER: Sure looks like the main early speed in a rare turf sprint that doesn’t seem to have much zip signed on. She’s had a history of pressing very fast paces, and I think she’ll be able to get much more comfortable against this bunch; #5 MISCHIEVOUS DREAM: Was rated behind a very slow pace last time out and has a right to improve here. That day’s top two finishers came right back to win at next asking, and this one’s two-back victory was a solid one; #2 HIT THE WOAH: Came back running when third in a similar race last month at this route. She’s a bit too pace-dependent for me to endorse on top, but any forward movement second off the bench would make her a logical “underneath” horse here.

Tiz a Giant
Most Wanted Man
Outperform

#3 TIZ A GIANT: Gets the “now or never” treatment after four consecutive second-place finishes (two at this meet). It helps, however, that he’s shown some early interest in a few of his races, which could help him in a turf marathon with no apparent speed horses in the field; #2 MOST WANTED MAN: Stretches out in distance for his third start off the bench, which is often when horses fire their best shots. He ran third in the same race my top pick exits, and there’s nothing saying he can’t get this 11-furlong trip; #4 OUTPERFORM: Is one of two in here trained by Todd Pletcher, and he’s had some gate issues in each of his last two outings. Still, he was beaten less than two lengths last time out in his turf debut, and perhaps they’ve found what this son of Gun Runner wants to do.

Khali Magic
Mosienko
Bustin Bay

#4 KHALI MAGIC: Won two back but regressed last time out when fourth as a 7/5 favorite. However, she was stuck inside at a time when that wasn’t the place to be on this track. I think she’s in line to improve with both a better trip and the stretch-out to seven furlongs; #8 MOSIENKO: Looked sharp in victory last time out and has moved forward since a rider switch to Luis Saez earlier this summer. I do think she’s at her best going a bit shorter, but she draws favorably here, and a repeat of her last-out effort would make her a formidable foe; #5 BUSTIN BAY: Ran away with a one-mile race out of the Wilson chute against what sure seemed like a weaker group than this one. Maybe it’s a class jump, but she’s 2-for-4 with a third at Saratoga and is 3-for-4 at this seven-furlong distance, so she certainly cannot be ignored.

Lisheen
Transient
Santa Giulia

#10 LISHEEN: Came back running in her first start since September when she cruised home against overmatched foes at Laurel. That day’s runner-up came right back to win, and this event should have plenty of pace signed on. Between the race shape and the potential for a step forward, I think the 12-1 morning line price is a considerable overlay; #7 TRANSIENT: Makes her first start for Saffie Joseph and hasn’t raced since a November outing at Woodbine. She’s been working consistently ahead of her 2022 debut, though, and she’s flashed enough form in her prior races to make me think she’s a contender if she’s ready to run; #8 SANTA GIULIA: Came over from Europe and was greeted with a race that had no early speed in it, which she clearly didn’t enjoy. This race shape seems a bit friendlier, and it’s good to see Flavien Prat stay aboard when he probably had a few options in this fantastic betting race.

Security Code
Stonewall Star
Super Slide

#10 SECURITY CODE: Settled for second behind a very nice 2-year-old that came back to win a stakes race last week. Improvement is logical at second asking, and that combined with the cushy outside draw makes me think this will be a tough favorite to go against; #2 STONEWALL STAR: Is a full sister to a multiple stakes-winning 2-year-old named La Fuerza, who was a very nice horse. This dam is one of six multiple winners out of her dam, so there’s plenty of talent in the pedigree, and the August 19th gate drill looks very flashy; #7 SUPER SLIDE: Is worth a look underneath at a big price. The pedigree says he probably wants to go longer, but he comes in off of a bullet five-furlong work over the Oklahoma track and there are other drills that suggest the fast clocking was no fluke.

Ria’s Angel (MTO)
Topic Changer
Fieldstone

#5 TOPIC CHANGER: Had a legitimate excuse last time out, when he was bumped hard preparing to make his run and didn’t kick on. He drops into a restricted claiming race here, and anything close to his good-looking, two-back score downstate would give him and new jockey Joel Rosario a big chance; #3 FIELDSTONE: Hasn’t won in quite a while but did respond to the drop to this level when third last month in a similar race. The rider switch to Luis Saez is a big one, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this gelding a bit closer to the pace early on; #2 HE’S GOT IT: Finally broke cleanly last time out in a stakes race for state-breds and was beaten less than five lengths by the classy Dakota Gold. He goes back on Lasix for this one, which comes against a weaker bunch, and his best effort could get him a slice at a price.

Wudda U Think Now (MTO)
Voodoo Zip
Dancing Buck

#6 VOODOO ZIP: Probably moved too soon in the Grade 2 Highlander at Woodbine, which was won by strong turf sprinter/ageless wonder Bound for Nowhere. His one-turn turf races prior to that performance were excellent, he reunites with Joel Rosario, and I think he’ll be the one to hold off in the Lucky Coin; #4 DANCING BUCK: Has won two in a row in two wildly different ways and certainly deserves this opportunity against stakes competition. He’s shown tactical speed, but he also doesn’t need the lead in order to run well, which could come in handy in a group with some fast turf sprinters; #5 THIN WHITE DUKE: Was beaten just a neck by Golden Pal in the Grade 3 Troy, and a repeat of that effort could get him into the winner’s circle for the first time in a while. On figures, though, that was a significant move forward. He may need to show he can string that effort together for multiple races, and this field isn’t comprised of slouches.

Wicked Halo
Angitude
Hot Peppers

#1 WICKED HALO: Won the Grade 2 Adirondack here last summer and, I think, has a big chance to add another Grade 2 score here in the Prioress. She comes in off of two big stakes wins at Churchill Downs, and I just don’t love some of the races many runners in here exit; #6 ANGITUDE: Did the dirty work up front in the Wilton last time out before fading to third behind two classy fillies. The cutback to this distance should be a welcome one, and she’s trained very well for Brad Cox leading up to this event; #2 HOT PEPPERS: Fended off heavy favorite Matareya in the Grade 1 Test, but couldn’t do the same to late-running winner Chi Town Lady. She may go off favored after that performance, but the Test didn’t come back well on figures and this barn’s been on a long cold streak ever since the meet kicked off.

R10

Media Sensation
Conquist
Curlin’s Wisdom

#4 MEDIA SENSATION: Was claimed last time out by David Donk, who doesn’t reach in for many runners. That last-out effort is a total toss, given that it was rained off the turf. His races two and three back were solid, and I think he’s got a big shot at a big price; #6 CONQUIST: Set the pace last time out in his local debut before finishing second and being DQ’d to fourth for interference. The cutback to a mile should help him, and he once again looks like the main speed, just as he did last time; #8 CURLIN’S WISDOM: Got moved up to third in the race my top pick exits and goes two turns on turf for just the second time in what will be his 10th career start. He’s had lots of chances, sure, but he does seem to fire every time out, and that means he can’t be ignored in a head-scratcher of a finale.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (9/1/22)

Posted on August 30 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $786.95

If you’ve been played by Bruce Willis in a movie, befriended professional wrestlers and MMA fighters, and garnered respect from some of the most grizzled veterans in the gambling world, chances are you’ve lived a full life. Unfortunately, the full life I’m referencing ended Wednesday.

Alan Denkenson passed away after a long battle with cancer. He started out as a bookmaker in New York and New Jersey, and after serving a prison sentence for that, moved to Las Vegas and established himself as a sharp bettor. I tweeted a link to an interview he did with VSIN in 2020, and if you haven’t seen that, it’s worth a read.

I never knew the man they called “Dink.” I wish I had. A lot of people I like and respect posted heartfelt tributes to him on social media, and for good reason. The gambling world lost an incredibly smart man, and by all accounts, he was a good man, too.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: My Pick Three fizzled when it turned out I had the wrong alternative to a beatable favorite in the middle leg. However, both singles won, and playing $15 win tickets on those runners allowed me to turn a $51.50 profit.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the seventh, where #6 MASABEEH hits me as a very interesting value play. In addition to a $10 win bet, I’ll play $3 exactas using her on top of #2 BELLA CONCHITA, #4 COMMAND POINT, and #9 DREAM OF CHANGE, as well as $2 exactas with Masabeeh beneath that trio. I’ll also have a $5 cold double starting in the sixth that singles #6 INFLATION NATION to start and Masabeeh to finish.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Sirius Light, Race 3
Longshot: Gucci Boy, Race 6

Scorpion’s Revenge
Freddy Flintshire
Decisive Triumph

#6 SCORPION’S REVENGE: Came from way back to win a listed stakes race last time out, and he’s 3-for-3 going 2 1/4 miles or longer over fences. This 2 3/8-mile trip should hit him right between the eyes, and I think he’ll be tough to hold off; #2 FREDDY FLINTSHIRE: Made it two in a row with a solid score over allowance foes earlier this summer. He goes out for one of the top barns on the steeplechase circuit, gets one of the top riders, and is a major player provided he takes to the added distance; #5 DECISIVE TRIUMPH: Hasn’t won in a while but has hit the board four times in as many starts this season, all in stakes races. Most recently, he was second in the Kiser a few weeks ago, and he figures to be prominent from the jump (no pun intended).

Ragtime Blues
Bronx Bomber
Casalsa

#1 RAGTIME BLUES: Is ultra-consistent with six top-three finishes in his last six starts, including a second-place effort going longer last time out. The cutback to six furlongs should suit him, and he’s a candidate to sit a perfect stalking trip just off the speed; #2 BRONX BOMBER: Looms large on speed figures, as he usually does, and he’ll likely be favored here. However, he’s 0-for-6 in his career over this track, and he’s 1-for-18 dating back to the start of 2021. I’m hesitant to trust him too much, especially at a short price; #7 CASALSA: Is a proven early speed threat and goes first off the claim for Peter Walder, who can win with new acquisitions. The far outside draw should be a big plus, and he’s done some of his best running with today’s pilot, Luis Saez, in the irons.

Sirius Light
Bourbon and Honey
Influentialous

#4 SIRIUS LIGHT: Came flying late after a rough beginning to be second last time out in her first turf race. Not only does this race figure to set up for her running style, it figures to do so with some of the ones she beat last time out likely to dictate terms again. A smoother journey could make her tough to hold off; #8 BOURBON AND HONEY: Debuted in an off-the-turf race at Horseshoe Indiana and was third behind a pair of next-out winners. The pedigree says she wants grass, and she has every right to improve at second asking for a barn that’s going very well right now; #6 INFLUENTIALOUS: Set the early pace last time out before fading to fourth in the race my top pick exits. Top speed rider Kendrick Carmouche retains the mount, and I expect her to be prominent from the jump once again.

Claytnthelionheart (MTO)
Value Engineering
Street Ready

#4 VALUE ENGINEERING: Ran well when third last time out in his 2022 bow and has every right to be sharper second off the bench. The recent bullet drill over the Oklahoma turf course indicates he’s doing well, and he should get plenty of pace to run at; #6 STREET READY: Did almost all of the work up front last time out and got nailed on the wire by Soldier Rising, who came back to run third in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer. That day’s jockey rides back, and the slight cutback in distance should be a welcome one; #5 BYE BYE MELVIN: Came up just a neck short in his first start since June of 2021 when fourth in a stakes-caliber optional claimer. The blinkers come off, but John Velazquez stays on, and this Grade 3 winner merits respect even if he may not be alone up front.

Bees and Honey
Sweet Willemina
W W Fitzy

#4 BEES AND HONEY: Gets significant class relief after running fourth in the Grade 2 Delaware Handicap. She captured the Grade 3 Comely late last year, and this is probably the weakest field she’s faced since winning that event; #3 SWEET WILLEMINA: Stretches out to two turns, but she’s shown she can handle such a trip and is a closer in what looks like a race with plenty of early speed. The race shape favors her, and she’s a hard-knocking mare that’s won 12 of 33 lifetime starts; #6 W W FITZY: Faded to finish a distant third last time out in a race out of the Wilson chute. She’ll likely be very prominent early on again in this spot, but the presence of fellow speedster #2 FAMILY TIME means she may have to work hard to clear this bunch from her outside post.

Inflation Nation
Antares
Gucci Boy

#6 INFLATION NATION: Did everything but win in his debut, when he lost a photo and finished more than six lengths clear of the third-place finisher. There are some promising first-time starters in here, but he’s the one to beat if he runs back to that performance; #10 ANTARES: Makes his debut for Wesley Ward, which automatically merits attention. The far outside post is a problem, but this American Pharoah gelding is kin to a stakes-place turfer and boasts an eye-catching turf work on August 12th; #3 GUCCI BOY: Is worth a look at a bonkers price. This son of Hard Spun is out of a mare that won first time out at this route. That dam went on to place in a stakes race, and the work tab has some hints that say this one can run a bit.

Monshun (MTO)
Masabeeh
Dream of Change

#6 MASABEEH: Was a close-up third at this level and route last time out and gets a notable rider switch to Jose Ortiz for this event. This race doesn’t have a ton of early speed signed on, and Ortiz, an aggressive rider, should be able to put this filly in an ideal spot going into the first turn; #9 DREAM OF CHANGE: Just missed in a first-level allowance race at Monmouth Park last time out and figures to be favored given the powerful connections involved. However, her speed figures aren’t overwhelming, and that wasn’t the best field she faced last time out. She can win, but her likely price hits me as a bit of an underlay; #2 BELLA CONCHITA: Made a middle move last time out and flattened out late after going wide turning for home. Perhaps she needs more pace than she’ll get here, but I do think she’s better than the last-out performance might indicate.

Short Summer Dress
Rossa Veloce
Melting Snow

#1 SHORT SUMMER DRESS: Takes a big class drop to run here for local, aggressive connections that are probably eager to find the winner’s circle a few times between now and Monday evening. She was a good third against a tougher group of optional claimers last time out, and that day’s runner-up has since come back to win; #2 ROSSA VELOCE: Ran too poorly to be true last time out, when she faltered as a 7/5 favorite. She comes back in this spot for new trainer Michelle Nevin, and unlike many others in here, she doesn’t need the lead in order to run well. A return to her early-2022 form gives her a shot at a nice price; #4 MELTING SNOW: Is winless in five 2022 starts but was claimed by a sharp outfit last time out and could benefit from a hot pace. The faster they go early, the better this one’s chances figure to be, and I don’t think they’ll be walking up front.

Tell Me When
Cowichan
Ticker Tape Home

#1 TELL ME WHEN: Has run well in a pair of outings, including one earlier this meet when she was second behind a very well-meant runner in an off-the-turf race. She’s worked consistently since that effort, and I think further improvement is in the offing here; #11 COWICHAN: Needs a scratch to draw in but merits plenty of respect if she does. She was beaten just a half-length in a similar spot earlier this summer, and she’s improved in all three of her starts to date for trainer Wesley Ward; #4 TICKER TAPE HOME: May have bounced or gone too far last time out, when she faded to finish eighth at a pretty short price going two turns. She cuts back to a sprint, and anything close to her debut effort from early-July at Woodbine would make her formidable for Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse.

R10

Leave No Trace (MTO)
Be Your Best
Lady Jasmine

#6 BE YOUR BEST: Debuted with a smashing performance against a decent group, one where her 3 1/4-length win was rewarded with a 70 Beyer Speed Figure. This barn doesn’t always have firsters fully-cranked, so that effort’s a notable one. A similar trip may make her tough to fend off in the P.G. Johnson; #1 LADY JASMINE: Won first time out for another outfit whose runners tend to improve with experience. John Velazquez sees fit to ride back, and she may have enough speed to use the inside draw to her advantage; #8 RECOGNIZE: Took a significant step forward when switched to the turf last time out and comes back here on short rest for a pretty patient barn. I’m interpreting that as a sign of confidence, and she may be able to clear most of her rivals early on.

R11

Power Agenda
Got the Gold
Once a Giant

#8 POWER AGENDA: Was through early last time out, but gets one more chance from me in a wide-open Thursday finale. He got stuck dueling on the inside, which wasn’t the place to be on this track that day. The outside draw should help him here, and Luis Saez riding back is a point in his favor; #3 GOT THE GOLD: Might have been a bit too close to the pace last time out when sixth at this route in mid-August. His prior local effort was a decent second against a similar bunch, and I think he’ll have some speed to chase and potentially reel in here; #9 ONCE A GIANT: Ran fourth at this level going a mile in July and was claimed out of that race by a barn hitting with 28% of new acquisitions. He’s since put forth a big half-mile drill in mid-August, and he’s a contender if he runs back to his lone winning effort (which came at Aqueduct back in April).