BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,094.75

Sunday was an example of a good day to play the Grand Slam. I had a strong opinion in the payoff leg and left a few short prices off of my ticket. Those short prices didn’t hit the board in the opening three legs, which knocked out plenty of players.

As a result, my $18 ticket had a $1 will-pay of about $118 to my single, which went off at odds of 2-1. By playing the Grand Slam, though, I was able to significantly improve my potential payoff.

This didn’t wind up hitting, as Rocketeer was one of six second-place finishes by top picks on Sunday. At a minimum, though, it’s a reminder about the value of playing the right wagers at the right times, even if they’re not necessarily the glamorous ones.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: See above. I dropped $30.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: Let’s go to the feature, the Grade 2 Honorable Miss. It’s the seventh of nine on the card, and it houses my best bet of the day, #4 CLEARLY UNHINGED. I’ll keep it simple with a $30 win bet on her in hopes that we get the 5-1 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Clearly Unhinged, Race 7
Longshot: Leon Blue, Race 2

R1

Macaw
Two Tons of Fun
Shakin the Belle

#2 MACAW (4/5): Will be a popular pick in the Wednesday lid-lifter on a significant class drop in his first start for new trainer Linda Rice. The price doesn’t excite me, but neither does this field, and anything close to his two and three-back efforts would likely make him very tough to beat; #1 TWO TONS OF FUN (9/2): Drops in for a tag after a failed turf experiment last time out. His two prior outings downstate weren’t terrible, and perhaps the shallower waters will wake him up; #5 SHAKIN THE BELLE (5-1): Has hit the board in his last three outings, all against similar stock, and figures to be on or near the lead from the jump. Flavien Prat has gotten to know him well over his last few starts, and he’s off to a flying start at the meet.

R2

Leon Blue
Army Proud
Pay the Juice

#5 LEON BLUE (10-1): Hammered for $100,000 earlier this year and has been working very well ahead of his unveiling. He’s kin to multiple stakes winner Allure of Money, and given the likely namesake (late trainer Leon “Blue” Blusiewicz), this would be a very popular winner; #9 ARMY PROUD (6-1): Debuts for Joe Sharp, whose first-out numbers aren’t great but get much better if you solely focus on debuting turf runners. His dam, Jc’s Shooting Star, was a New York stalwart, and this son of Army Rule has a right to be a runner; #7 PAY THE JUICE (7/2): Sold for $200,000 in March and has been working steadily for Shug McGaughey. Flavien Prat sees fit to ride, and while this barn tends to be patient with young horses, there’s reason to think he’s well-meant first time out.

R3

Malu
Chasing Daylight
Echo in Eternity

#7 MALU (9/2): Was a runaway winner here just a week ago and wheels right back first off the claim for Linda Rice, who’s done well with that move in the past. Toss the two-back, two-turn clunker at Churchill, and her record looks far better; #9 CHASING DAYLIGHT (9/5): Will likely go favored here, but she hits me as the type of chalk you’re supposed to go against. She’s winless in six starts this season, the outside draw doesn’t usually work well out of the Wilson chute, and these connections have yet to get going at this meet; #3 ECHO IN ETERNITY (6-1): Returns to dirt after a failed turf try last time out. Javier Castellano sees fit to ride back after that, which is encouraging, and she’s run well enough a few times this season to merit consideration in deeper exotics.

R4

Big Ego
Stanley Rough
Janssen

#1 BIG EGO (6/5): Could continue a big day for the Linda Rice barn, as she’ll saddle another short-priced runner here. He chased a much-the-best winner here last month, looks like the main speed, and should be able to capitalize on an inside draw out of the chute; #8 STANLEY ROUGH (10-1): Was never a factor last time out, but ignore that race and his form looks much better than his likely price. His two-back effort was a solid one, and against an uninspiring field for the level, a similar type of run could get him a big check; #9 JANSSEN (6-1): Looks like the only other possible speed in the race, aside from the chalk. Turf clearly isn’t what he wants, judging by the last-out clunker, and he ran second in three straight races at this level earlier this year.

R5

Andy Cant (MTO)
Sanderson
Scat Tu Tap

#8 SANDERSON (7/2): Was pretty highly-regarded last season, when his connections tried him in the Central Park at Aqueduct. The drop in for a $50,000 tag is curious, but he had every right to need his 2024 debut last month, and this barn is scorching at the moment; #6 SCAT TU TAP (3-1): Probably went just a bit too long last time out and gets both a shorter distance and a class drop here. If he can bring his Gulfstream Park form to upstate New York, he’ll have a big shot; #7 FUNNY UNCLE (10-1): Has a right to improve on turf in his second start off the claim for Mike Maker. His pedigree is all-turf, and his only try on it was quite a while ago. His dirt form carrying over to the lawn would give him a chance at a nice price.

R6

Cinderella’s Cause (MTO)
Overacting
Spooky Lady

#7 OVERACTING (7/2): Wanted no part of an off-the-turf race last time out and goes back to her preferred surface here. Her 2024 debut was easily her best race yet, and further improvement third off the bench for Chad Brown would make her a handful; #3 SPOOKY LADY (3-1): Is a consistent sort that should be forwardly-placed beneath Flavien Prat. She was a close-up third last time out against similar company, and she may be the one they have to catch turning for home; #5 SPINNING COLORS (6-1): Returns after a break of more than 10 months, and she got pretty sharp last summer before going to the sidelines. One of those races was a win at this route, and the presence of jockey John Velazquez is encouraging.

R7

Clearly Unhinged
Munnys Gold
Accede

#4 CLEARLY UNHINGED (5-1): Is 2-for-2 this season after a trainer switch to Steve Asmussen. One of those wins was a score in the Grade 3 Winning Colors at Churchill. She seems to have only improved since a runner-up finish here in last season’s Grade 1 Test, and she may provide value in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss; #8 MUNNYS GOLD (2-1): Cruised home over a much weaker field here last month and dives back into deeper waters. Her best race could win this, sure, but it’s worth noting she’s 4-for-4 with Lasix, 0-for-3 without it, and will be a very short price against some heavy-hitting female sprinters; #1 ACCEDE (4-1): Is another that has progressed at age four, and she’ll be looking for her fourth straight victory here. She comes in off of a gutty win in a Grade 2 downstate, and a similar effort likely gets her a check here.

R8

Mystic Night (MTO)
Bourbon Day
Kalik

#2 BOURBON DAY (9/2): Ships in after five wins in his last 10 starts, including a last-out score at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Prat hopping aboard is absolutely a plus, especially given his history of success for this barn (one of the highest-percentage outfits in the country); #8 KALIK (3-1): Won the Grade 2 Pennine Ridge a season ago but hasn’t come close to those heights since. His last outing was certainly against better horses, and runner-up Major Dude came back to win over the weekend, but this drop is an alarming one, even by the standards of an aggressive barn that isn’t afraid to lose horses via the claim box; #11 PAROS (7/2): Draws an absolutely terrible post but is talented enough to merit consideration. His last-out win against similar was solid, and he’d benefit from a pace meltdown (especially if jockey Jose Ortiz can find a way to save ground).

R9

Lucky and Gorgeous
Lu’s Redemption
Saving Memories

#4 LUCKY AND GORGEOUS (7/2): Finally got to run on turf last time out and relished the new surface. She was second behind a much-the-best winner that day, Prat rides back, and any sort of progression would give her a big chance in the nightcap; #7 LU’S REDEMPTION (4-1): Runs for a tag for the first time, which isn’t as big a drop in a state-bred race as it is against open company but is still a notable class move. Her two efforts downstate weren’t necessarily bad, and she doesn’t have to move forward all that much; #10 SAVING MEMORIES (10-1): Doesn’t have the best form on paper, but was just three lengths behind my top pick last time out. Another far-outside draw certainly doesn’t help, but if you’re going price-shopping, it’s not like a three-length reversal on one of the favorites is totally out of the question.

BANKROLL

In lieu of something timely and witty (since I’ll be in Colorado through Monday), my bankroll section will focus much more on ticket construction advice.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: The Grand Slam can be a very fun wager when you have a strong lean in the payoff leg. I do on Sunday, as #6 ROCKETEER is my best bet of the card.

In an attempt to extract some value, I’ll play a $1 Grand Slam ticket starting in the seventh that goes as follows: 5,7,8 with 3,11 with 1,3,7 with 6. I’ll also have a $12 win ticket on Rocketeer as well, since it’s likely he’ll be the second choice and not the favorite (which hits me as an opportunity for an overlay).

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Rocketeer, Race 10
Longshot: Kreesa, Race 3

R1

L’Imperator
Pickanumber
Abaan

#7 L’IMPERATOR (5/2): Broke through to win a Grade 1 downstate last time out (one that was supposed to be held here during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, but got washed out). He’s proven without Lasix, seems to be in top form, and gets a few pounds from the likely favorite; #6 PICKANUMBER (5/2): Turned into a stakes horse overseas and most recently thumped 16 other jump horses by 15 lengths. If he brings his European form stateside for this high-percentage outlet, that could be good enough to top this classy bunch; #5 ABAAN (9/5): Is on a four-race win streak, including a few wins over my top selection. He carries this field’s top weight assignment, though, and must race over hurdles without Lasix for the first time. I respect him, but at his likely price, I’ll try to beat him in a fascinating renewal of the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick.

R2

Broughty Ferry
Enigmatic
Yo Puedo

#4 BROUGHTY FERRY (6-1): Has a record that looks much better if you draw lines through her clunkers on turf. Do that, and you have four top-two finishes in five dirt starts, and she ran very well to just miss last time out at Churchill Downs; #1 ENIGMATIC (9/5): Will likely go favored in here after an easy score in an off-the-turf race downstate. Yes, the runner-up came back to win, but that was in another off-the-turf event. Given this one’s prior history in two-turn races, I think she may be overbet; #6 YO PUEDO (9/2): Has come back running this season with two seconds in Kentucky. She’s shown plenty of early zio, and she should be prominent early in a race without much other proven gate speed.

R3

Aaraj (MTO)
Kreesa
Devil in Disguise

#2 KREESA (15-1): Has run well here twice, both times against horses probably better than what he faces in this restricted claiming event. In a race with many horses that don’t seem to want to win, he has local form and has shown an interest in passing others late. Given his likely price, that’s enough for me; #10 DEVIL IN DISGUISE (7/2): Is a very, very tricky read. He won his debut in March and was less than 5-1 in a $150,000 stakes race. He comes back for a $40,000 tag without Irad Ortiz, Jr., up, and while his best race crushes these, there sure seem to be several large red flags; #5 JAVA BUZZ (9/2): Hasn’t run since March of 2023 and returns for Linda Rice, who trained him back in 2022. If he gets back to that form, he’s got a big shot, but that’s no small “if” given the layoff and this outfit’s recent cold spell with turf sprinters.

R4

Jitterbug
Past Tense
Ms Sedona

#4 JITTERBUG (5/2): Continues adding distance and exits a close-up fourth, one where she may have been a bit too forwardly-placed early on. Joel Rosario returns to ride for Christophe Clement, and I’m expecting her to sit back and make one big run; #7 PAST TENSE (3-1): Was second in the race my top pick exits and hasn’t done a heck of a lot wrong in her career. That last-out effort was probably a career-best effort, and a repeat could see her graduate here; #9 MS SEDONA (7/2): Has had gate issues in all three starts to date, which makes the rider switch to Luis Saez very interesting. He’s one of the best gate jockeys in the business, and if anyone can give this one a smooth beginning, it’s probably him.

R5

Shotgun Hottie
Raging Sea
Venti Valentine

#1 SHOTGUN HOTTIE (3/2): Has always been a force when she’s right, and the red-hot Cherie Devaux barn has her on the right track ahead of the Grade 2 Shuvee. She was most recently a tough-luck second in the Fleur De Lis at Churchill behind Scylla, and an argument can be made this is an easier spot; #3 RAGING SEA (7/5): Won the Grade 3 Doubledogdare two back before finishing a one-paced fourth in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps on the Belmont undercard. She generally fires the same shot every time out, and first-call rider Flavien Prat certainly knows her very well; #2 VENTI VALENTINE (12-1): Loves Saratoga and is a candidate to sneak into the exotics at a price. Her best races have come against New York-breds, but she should get a pace to chase and it’s encouraging that Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back.

R6

Playingwithmatches
Briterdayzahead
Whenlovetakesover

#7 PLAYINGWITHMATCHES (8-1): Is protected from being claimed in his first start since December, which is something I always love to see. Many times, that’s a clue that a barn doesn’t want to lose a horse it thinks has talent. Take out his duds over wet tracks, and that record looks considerably better; #2 BRITERDAYZAHEAD (5/2): Takes a monstrous drop in class after two “speed and fade” efforts. The inside draw isn’t a bad thing, to be sure, but this seems panicky, and while a return to his mid-2023 form would crush these, his likely price hits me as a bit short…; #5 WHENLOVETAKESOVER (9/5): …which could also be said for this gelding, too. He ran well to cruise in a starter allowance three back at Aqueduct, but his last two efforts have left much to be desired. This is probably the right level, but isn’t 9/5 just too short to stomach?

R7

Wild and Free
Panache
Running Away

#8 WILD AND FREE (3-1): Has plenty of turf pedigree on the bottom and looms large for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher and top jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. Her dam is a full sister to Grade 1 winner Bolo, and the strong half-mile grass workout on July 1st jumps off the page; #7 PANACHE (8-1): Has an experience edge over most of this field and should improve with a start under her belt and the surface switch. Among others, her dam is kin to a stakes-winning turfer, and this barn’s numbers with second-time starters are strong; #5 RUNNING AWAY (8-1): Debuts going long for Wesley Ward, which isn’t usually an angle I like. However, the pedigree says she wants route races. She’s by Gun Runner and boasts a female family that includes second dam Summerly, who won the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks.

R8

Chasing Daylight (MTO)
Awesome Czech
Bunny Honey

#3 AWESOME CZECH (5-1): Takes a class drop second off the bench after a race that, in all honesty, wasn’t bad. She was fourth in the Wild Applause downstate in her first start since November, and any sort of step forward against state-bred allowance foes likely makes her the one to beat; #11 BUNNY HONEY (12-1): Doesn’t draw a great post, but her two turf routes have been strong and she gets the services of all-world jockey Frankie Dettori. This barn hits at a 28% clip with last-out winners, and while she’ll need to work out a trip, I don’t think she’s without a shot at a nice price; #7 FIRSTTIMEINFOREVER (2-1): May go favored in here, but I think she’s very beatable. She was second in a similar spot at Aqueduct in a race that she was almost certainly supposed to win. Her speed figures are flashy, but she’s also 0-for-3 since coming to New York.

R9

Kiss Me Slow
Black Dog
Immersive

#1 KISS ME SLOW (3-1): Debuts for Chad Brown off of a bullet four-furlong drill last week. That work was the fastest of 147 at the distance that morning, and it hints she could be ready to run to an all-world pedigree that includes third dam My Flag, one of the top female influences of the last 30 years; #3 BLACK DOG (7/2): Debuted with a solid third-place finish in Kentucky and ships here for start number two. She made up some ground in her unveiling, which is nice to see, and that could give jockey Tyler Gaffalione plenty of options; #7 IMMERSIVE (5-1): Makes her first start for Brad Cox, and this Godolphin homebred has a right to be a runner. The daughter of Nyquist has been working steadily in the mornings and exits a five-furlong drill from the gate at Churchill.

R10

Rocketeer
Seeking Unity
Black Rain

#6 ROCKETEER (3-1): Comes back to the allowance ranks after fading to finish fourth in the Grade 3 Matt Winn. He gets to run with Lasix in this spot, and given that his only prior try with Lasix doubled as his first start in almost six months, I’m anticipating a career-best performance; #4 SEEKING UNITY (8-1): Has turned a corner since being claimed by Rudy Rodriguez earlier this year. I don’t think there’s a ton of early speed signed on here, and that means he and jockey Flavien Prat could get pretty comfortable on or near the lead; #8 BLACK RAIN (8/5): Exits a race out of the Wilson chute where he was a distant second behind an impressive winner. He may go favored, but this is his first two-turn start, the far-outside draw isn’t ideal, and are we sure the horses he beat last time out while chasing a much-the-best winner were all that special?

R11

Shadow Dragon (MTO)
Let’s Go Big Blue
Locke and Key

#7 LET’S GO BIG BLUE (4-1): Returns to his favorite track for the Sunday finale and has plenty of potential to improve. His last-out effort at Aqueduct was a decent third, and I think he may have been a bit too close early on. His preferred trip, over a turf course where he’s never been beaten to the wire, would make him tough to beat; #8 LOCKE AND KEY (12-1): Has been competitive in all six prior 2024 outings and gets a huge rider switch to Frankie Dettori. He seemed to take to turf reasonably well last time out, and he might get more pace to chase here; #9 LIAR’S POKER (6-1): Is 3-for-4 lifetime and 2-for-2 since coming back from a layoff of nearly 18 months. Most recently, he dueled throughout and prevailed against first-level allowance foes, and of the ones with early speed, this is the one that seems most likely to be involved at the end.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,106.50

NYRA can be an easy target sometimes, which is why my criticisms tend to be more muted than some voices you may see or hear elsewhere. However, I need to point out that today’s feature, the Curlin Stakes, does more harm than good to the Saratoga schedule (at least, as it’s presently constructed).

In its current place on the calendar, the Curlin takes away possible contenders from both Monmouth’s Haskell Invitational and Saratoga’s Jim Dandy. Unmatched Wisdom, Timeout, and Corporate Power wouldn’t be out of place in those races, and would, in fact, offer a stronger betting product with more betting interests.

If the Curlin has to be run, schedule it for Travers Day as an alternative to the Midsummer Derby. I’d rather that race target horses that would be longshots in the Travers, as opposed to contenders in that race’s primary preps.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Off-track, I had a fabulous day exploring Wyoming and Fort Collins, Colorado, with my fiancee. On-track, my stand against The Big Torpedo blew up in my face. I dropped $22.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I gave out an $8 50-cent early Pick Five ticket on this week’s edition of “Drank’n Champagne,” and I’ll use it here, too. That ticket, which starts in the opener, goes as follows: 1 with 8 with 1 with 1,4,6,8 with 1,6,7,8. In addition, I’ll play a $10 cold Pick Three in the opener using all of my singles. For more on how I structured my ticket, check out the video below!

TOTAL WAGERED: $18.

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Governor Sam, Race 1
Longshot: Joker On Fire, Race 6

R1

Governor Sam
Test Score
No Evidence

#1 GOVERNOR SAM (8/5): Debuted in an ambitious spot, when he pressed a hot pace and finished sixth in the Royal Palm at Gulfstream. That race offers a fees-paid spot in a race at Royal Ascot, which hints they’ve had high hopes for this $275,000 auction buy; #7 TEST SCORE (8-1): Boasts outstanding turf bloodlines on the bottom side of his pedigree and may be worth an underneath look at a price. There’s a chance he needs a race or wants more ground, but the workouts look sharp and he seems well-meant; #8 NO EVIDENCE (5/2): Hammered for $325,000 in April and is by Vekoma, whose offspring have been winning at a staggering rate this season. Joel Rosario rides for Christophe Clement, and this is another that has every right to be a runner.

R2

Dea Matrona
Wings Like Eagles
Alette d’Oro

#8 DEA MATRONA (3-1): Was 9-1 in the Grade 1 Natalma two starts ago and now runs for a $50,000 claiming tag. I think she had every right to need her 2024 debut at Monmouth, though, and that there’s reason to believe she’ll be sharper against a much weaker bunch; #4 WINGS LIKE EAGLES (7/2): Hasn’t won in more than a year, but has been running against allowance foes and runs for a tag for the first time here. She’s been sitting back and making one run in most of her races, but she’s also shown speed at times in her career, and I wouldn’t be shocked if she’s up closer to the pace here; #5 ALETTE D’ORO (12-1): Earned the diploma last time out at Aqueduct and tries winners in a race that doesn’t seem very salty. Frankie Dettori’s presence is interesting, and she may still have room to improve compared to some of her opponents.

R3

Unmatched Wisdom
Corporate Power
Timeout

#1 UNMATCHED WISDOM (4/5): Has yet to be challenged in two tries and looms large in the Curlin. He passed a two-turn test with flying colors last month at Aqueduct, and anything close to what we’ve seen from him to date would make him a real handful; #2 CORPORATE POWER (7/2): Exits a win in the Sir Barton on the Preakness undercard and figures to be doing his best running late. His sheet also includes a win over Batten Down, who won the Grade 3 Ohio Derby not long ago; #4 TIMEOUT (2-1): Graduated out of the maiden ranks going long at Aqueduct and earned a stylish 95 Beyer Speed Figure. That day’s runner-up, though, didn’t flatter him when he ran back last weekend, and I’m unsure whether or not this one can replicate that type of effort in a much tougher spot.

R4

Commandperformance
Rocco Strong
Yono

#8 COMMANDPERFORMANCE (3-1): Gets a tepid top pick on a significant class drop. His record looks far better if you toss his Oaklawn Park races, which seem a cut below the rest of his efforts. If he channels his back class, he’s got a big shot; #4 ROCCO STRONG (7/2): Was a good second last time out behind a horse that sat a picture-perfect trip and never came back to the field. Rudy Rodriguez claimed him that day, and he’s had plenty of success wheeling horses back quickly; #6 YONO (6-1): Ships in from Kentucky and moves way up if there’s any moisture at all in the track. He’s 3-for-3 over off going, and his fast-track form isn’t too shabby, either.

R5

Our Finest Hour
Schwartz entry
Positive Carry

#8 OUR FINEST HOUR (6-1): Drops in for a tag and flashed a bit of talent earlier this year in Florida. She probably never had a chance sitting behind a slow pace last time out, and the combination of blinkers and Luis Saez means she might be up closer here; #1 NOT GUILTY (9/2): Tries turf for the first time and is bred to love it. She’s by Blame and out of a Tale of the Cat mare, and it helps that trainer Cherie DeVaux has gotten off to a flying start at this stand; #3 POSITIVE CARRY (8/5): Is probably going to be a heavy favorite given the connections and the class drop, but I have my doubts. She’s burned a lot of money over her last several tries, and while it wouldn’t stun me if she won, I think there’s a chance she’s turned into a pack animal. At her likely price, I’ll try to beat her.

R6

Joker On Fire
Saratoga Warrior
Chasing Colton

#5 JOKER ON FIRE (6-1): Debuts for Bruce Levine, whose first-time starters have been on a hot streak of late. This son of Practical Joke is kin to Grade 3-placed Shadow Dragon, and his second dam, Jostle, was a Grade 1 winner that’s turned into a very productive female influence; #8 SARATOGA WARRIOR (7/2): Is another debuting runner that has a right to be precocious. Her dam was a stakes-placed 2-year-old, and the work tab looks pretty flashy. If there’s a reservation here, it’s that her large ownership group may make her a shorter price than she probably should be; #2 CHASING COLTON (9/2): Chased next-out Sanford winner Mo Plex in his unveiling downstate and has a right to improve at second asking. John Velazquez sees fit to ride back, and his experience edge over most of this field could prove valuable.

R7

Critical Threat
Emerald Forest
Super Chief

#8 CRITICAL THREAT (6-1): Wired a field of $25,000 claimers downstate and runs for half of that tag here. This may be an equally-strong spot (it IS Saratoga, after all), but another step forward in his second start off the claim for a high-percentage barn would make him the one to catch at a bit of a price; #5 EMERALD FOREST (5/2): Takes a big drop first off the claim by Linda Rice and will do his best running late. He’s shown he can pass horses, which is great, but this is an alarming first-off-the-claim drop by a barn known for moving horses up, not down; #10 SUPER CHIEF (7/2): Makes his first start in New York after spending his entire career to date in California. He ran against The Chosen Vron in the Grade 3 San Carlos two starts ago and was second for a $50,000 tag last time out. His best race could win, but like my projected second choice, I’m wondering why he’s here and not in a higher-level spot.

R8

Roswell
Sam’s Treasure
Wailua

#7 ROSWELL (5/2): Was a good second behind a very classy horse last month during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. She earned a 95 Beyer Speed Figure in that event, and it sure seems like she’s getting better with experience for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott; #4 SAM’S TREASURE (7/2): Has yet to run a clunker in five career outings and was third in the same race my top pick exits. She’s got plenty of tactical speed, but also doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well, which could come in handy; #2 WAILUA (6-1): Is 2-for-2 coming into this race, which presents a significant class test. Her last-out score at Churchill Downs was a good one, and she could improve in a race that doubles as her second start off of a four-month freshening.

R9

Audacious (MTO)
Root Cause
Any Port

#10 ROOT CAUSE (5/2): Gets significant class relief after a few starts against stakes company last year. One of those tries was a close second in the Virginia Oaks at Colonial. She’s been working steadily for Chad Brown and attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr., for her first try off the bench; #2 ANY PORT (10-1): Returns to the turf after being thumped in what turned into a match race downstate. Her Tampa Bay Downs turf form earlier this year was strong, and she could sit a dream trip just off of what figures to be a manageable early pace; #9 EPIC MISS JUSTICE (12-1): Almost certainly needed her 2024 debut, which came off a break of nearly a year. She stretches back out to two turns here, and she overcame a slow early pace to win at this route of ground last summer.

R10

Geopolitics
Heart of the Night
Barefoot Disco

#4 GEOPOLITICS (5/2): Has suffered three tough beats in as many career starts, one of which came in stakes company last time out. She comes back into the maiden ranks in the Friday finale, which means she can run with Lasix (always a powerful equipment change); #3 HEART OF THE NIGHT (4-1): Was a good second at this route last month, and it helps her cause that that day’s winner came right back to top first-level allowance foes over the weekend. Her tactical speed is a plus and should ensure she’s in with a chance; #7 BAREFOOT DISCO (10-1): Hasn’t been seen since her debut almost a year ago. That day, she closed well to finish third for a barn whose first-time starters usually aren’t fully cranked. Flavien Prat doesn’t ride for this outfit much, but he’ll have the mount here, and that may mean this filly is live at a price.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,128.50

In lieu of something timely and witty (since I’ll be in Colorado through Monday), my bankroll section will focus much more on ticket construction advice.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: It was a “good news, bad news” situation. The good news is Hue, my best bet of the day, won at 9/5. The bad news is, due to the surface switch, my action in this section was cancelled. There’s no change to my bankroll, and we press on!

THURSDAY’S PLAY: My strongest opinion today is that #5 THE BIG TORPEDO is a vulnerable favorite in the fourth. Yes, he won impressively last time out, but I think there’s a chance he’s not the same horse going two turns. At her likely price, I need to try to beat him.

I’ll use #4 FIDELIGHTCAYUT, a colt with a win going two turns who gets back to his desired route, and #6 CABLE READY, whose last race is a total throwout, on top of $3 exactas that use those two, #1 SIX FORTYFIVE, and The Big Torpedo underneath. I’ll also box my top two in additional $2 combinations.

TOTAL WAGERED: $22.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Iridescent, Race 5
Longshot: Destiny Star, Race 9

R1

Smokin’ Hot Kitty
Cinderella’s Cause
Racing Colors

#3 SMOKIN’ HOT KITTY (9/5): Has won three of her last four outings, with the lone misfire coming in a turf race downstate. The stretchout to two turns is notable, but she does have a two-turn win on grass last summer, so it’s not a total unknown; #6 CINDERELLA’S CAUSE (8/5): Earned a career-best 82 Beyer Speed Figure last time out in her first start off the claim for Linda Rice. She’s won seven of 33 career starts, generally runs the same race every time out, and could sit an ideal stalking trip; #1 RACING COLORS (9/2): Stretches out to two turns and would benefit from a pace meltdown. There is some speed signed on, and while she has to improve to win this, she should be going the right way late in the Thursday lid-lifter.

R2

Rice entry
Six Pack Senorita
Dolce Sera

RICE ENTRY (8/5): Both #1 SHE’S ALWAYS ROSIE and #1A FIRST CLASS CAT could win this. Both runners are coming off of wins for a barn that tends to keep horses on the right track. The former is a threat to wire the field, while the latter should be running well late; #8 SIX PACK SENORITA (6-1): Was a one-paced fourth downstate at this level, though did show some late interest in battling for second behind a much-the-best winner. Flavien Prat sees fit to ride back, which bodes well; #5 DOLCE SERA (15-1): Is a deep closer exiting a win at Aqueduct and would be the beneficiary of a pace meltdown. Many in here want to be on or near the lead, and that means this one could clunk up for a piece of it at a big price.

R3

Tipsy Runner
Supers Lucky Lady
Bella Voce

#9 TIPSY RUNNER (5/2): Takes a big drop for an aggressive barn and looms large. Two starts ago, she ran against stakes company at Churchill Downs. Here, she’s going up against restricted $40,000 claimers, and she seems like the class of the field; #2 SUPERS LUCKY LADY (3-1): May have needed her last start, which came after a six-month layoff. The other turf sprint on her sheet was a first-out win downstate, and the lone poor effort to date came in a dirt race right before the long break; #1 BELLA VOCE (10-1): Is a value play for me based off of pedigree that hints she’ll like the turf. Her last-out score at Finger Lakes was sharp, and these connections have already popped at a price at this stand.

R4

Fidelightcayut
Cable Ready
The Big Torpedo

#4 FIDELIGHTCAYUT (7/2): Stretches back out to two turns, and that seems like his preferred trip. He was a hard-luck third two back in the Jersey Derby at Monmouth against open company. He runs against state-breds here, and a repeat of that two-back effort would give him a big chance; #6 CABLE READY (8-1): Lost all chance at the break last time out, so draw a line straight through that effort. Two back, he was fourth in the Grade 2 Pennine Ridge against much better horses, so we know his best race puts him right there; #5 THE BIG TORPEDO (4/5): Was impressive going six furlongs last time out, and a repeat performance would make him a formidable favorite. The question is, can he replicate that effort going two turns? Given the quality of this field, he may need to do that, and his likely price is tough to swallow on what otherwise hits me as a chalk-heavy program.

R5

Iridescent
Cool Operator
Stingy

#7 IRIDESCENT (5/2): Makes his first start for Brad Cox, who doesn’t claim many horses but has a staggering success rate with new acquisitions. He’s run against stakes-quality horses in the past, and his early-2024 form seems miles ahead of anything his opponents have done; #4 COOL OPERATOR (9/2): Cuts back to one turn after nine furlongs proved to be beyond his scope. His two and three-back wins were sharp, and getting back to that form for top-notch connections isn’t out of the question; #1 STINGY (10-1): Stepped up in class last time out at Churchill and ran a solid second. Another step up is probably necessary in order to contend here, but this could be a 3-year-old finding his best form with experience.

R6

Brindi
Will Reign
Moon Gate

#10 BRINDI (7/2): Debuts for Christophe Clement and attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr., which seems like a clue. She’s a full sister to a debut winner, and this daughter of 2-year-old Group 1 winner No Nay Never has every right to be precocious; #5 WILL REIGN (6-1): Debuts for Mark Casse and has been working well ahead of her unveiling. She’s by War of Will and out of a mare who won a stakes race as a 2-year-old, so she’s another that could be ready to fire right away; #9 MOON GATE (4-1): Debuted with a solid third downstate and could take a step forward at second asking. She hit the front in the stretch before fading, so perhaps the slight cutback in distance will help her.

R7

Own the Field
Principe d’Oro
Two for Charging

#6 OWN THE FIELD (4-1): Gets a tepid top pick in a race that hit me as a wide-open event. He was a good second here going a bit shorter last month and was unlucky not to win at this distance at Oaklawn in April. Luis Saez rides back for Mike Maker, and both of those stalwarts are due to get going; #2 PRINCIPE D’ORO (8-1): Was close to a fast pace at Aqueduct a few weeks ago, but managed to hang on for third in his second start off the claim. Inside speed is often sharp out of the Wilson chute, and this one could get ideal positioning out of the gate; #10 TWO FOR CHARGING (8-1): Found the winner’s circle for the first time in nearly two years against restricted claimers and steps back up in class here. The added distance shouldn’t be an issue, at least, and Flavien Prat sees fit to ride back when he likely had several options.

R8

Rainingatthebeach (MTO)
Highway Harmony
Surprenant Cocca

#7 HIGHWAY HARMONY (4-1): Drops in for a tag after a few competitive tries against state-bred allowance foes and retains the riding services of Irad Ortiz, Jr. Her early speed could be an asset on the inner turf course, and she may be the one they have to catch turning for home; #9 SURPRENANT COCCA (9/2): Is another dropping into a claiming race after tries against higher-level foes. This one goes third off the bench for Graham Motion and could move forward if she overcomes her tendency to find trouble; #8 MISS PRETENDER (7/2): Earned the diploma against maiden special weight rivals at Parx last month and tries winners here. Trainer Chad Brown merits respect, but neither of her races came back fast on speed figures, and Brown’s Monmouth shippers have sometimes been overbet over the years.

R9

Regulatory Risk (MTO)
Expatriate
Destiny Star

#4 EXPATRIATE (8-1): Was pulled up in the Hilltop at Pimlico last time out, but judging by the consistent work tab downstate, she’s no worse for wear. Her debut win at Gulfstream was sharp, and she’s got a big chance if she runs back to that form; #3 DESTINY STAR (12-1): Gets back on Lasix after three tries against stakes foes in which she could not receive treatment. She’s 2-for-2 with Lasix applied, and Luis Saez getting on a speed horse is always intriguing; #9 MIXOLOGIST (4-1): Stormed home to win her debut after racing far behind in the early stages. It was visually impressive, to be sure, and it helps that the runner-up came back to win over the weekend.

R10

Braca
Saka Shocka
Hey Toby

#10 BRACA (8-1): Ran pretty well in his first start since early-January, when he was a best-of-the-rest second at Aqueduct. He gets a cushy outside draw in the Thursday finale, and the rider switch to Tyler Gaffalione is a big one (especially since he doesn’t ride for this small outfit often); #6 SAKE SHOCKA (4-1): Hasn’t done much running in three starts to date and drops in for a tag. The two recent local workouts, however, look pretty sharp, and there’s a chance he comes to life over this surface against a weaker group; #3 HEY TOBY (3-1): Was pulled up last time out, but seems to have come back fine judging by a series of strong local workouts. He seems like the main early speed and could lead this group a long way.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,128.50

Steeplechase racing isn’t for everyone, but today’s Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick was a blast to handicap. It’s the Wednesday opener, and even if you’re not a hurdles expert, there’s plenty to dig into.

If the names Abaan and L’Imperator look familiar, there’s a reason. They’re both graded stakes winners on the flat who have continued their careers over fences. Pickanumber, meanwhile, comes to the U.S. after four wins in five starts this season in Great Britain. Add in a few rock-solid jump horses, and you’ve got yourself a legitimate stakes race.

As a reminder, the steeplechase race is not included in the early Pick Five. On days where there is a steeplechase race, that wager starts in the second race, and the early Pick Four begins in the third.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Taking a swing against a favorite worked out about as well as it could have. 18-1 shot Unstable Prince pulled off an upset in the eighth, heavy chalk Star of Mystery rolled in the ninth, and a $20 investment into four $5 doubles returned $222.50.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I sincerely hope we get the 4-1 morning line price on #2 HUE in the sixth race. I think she’s set to improve considerably at second asking against what looks like a very suspect group. I’ll keep it simple with a $30 win bet on that runner, one that doubles as my best bet of the Wednesday program.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Hue, Race 6
Longshot: Amy’s Light, Race 8

R1

L’Imperator
Pickanumber
Abaan

#5 L’IMPERATOR (3-1): Broke through to win a Grade 1 downstate last time out (one that was supposed to be held here during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, but got washed out). He’s proven without Lasix, seems to be in top form, and gets a few pounds from the likely favorite; #7 PICKANUMBER (2-1): Turned into a stakes horse overseas and most recently thumped 16 other jump horses by 15 lengths. If he brings his European form stateside for this high-percentage outlet, that could be good enough to top this classy bunch; #2 ABAAN (9/5): Is on a four-race win streak, including a few wins over my top selection. He carries this field’s top weight assignment, though, and must race over hurdles without Lasix for the first time. I respect him, but at his likely price, I’ll try to beat him in a fascinating renewal of the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick.

R2

Save Time
Refuse to Lose
Fazools

#2 SAVE TIME (7/5): Has improved, figures-wise, in every start to date for Chad Brown and seems like a logical favorite. She chased a slow pace in her first two-turn outing downstate, and another step forward would likely make her tough; #5 REFUSE TO LOSE (4-1): Stretches out to two turns after a solid second and is bred to love this trip. This daughter of Belmont winner Union Rags came flying late here last month and should get some pace to chase; #6 FAZOOLS (2-1): Ships up from Monmouth and is the other half of Brown’s potent 1-2 punch in here, but I have some doubts. Her debut race sure seemed like it collapsed up front, and while she made up a bunch of ground, I’m just not sold on that event’s quality.

R3

Practically Summer
Vehemente
Bellacose

#6 PRACTICALLY SUMMER (7/2): Hammered for $145,000 at auction last year, and while Bill Mott trainees sometimes need a race, this one has turned some heads in the mornings. Her dam was a first-out winner, and that broodmare is a half-sister to Grade 2 winner and millionaire Zivo; #1 VEHEMENTE (9/5): Has every right to be a very precocious filly. She’s by red-hot sire Vekoma, and she comes in off of a bullet drill here last week. The rail draw, though, is a concern, and this solid barn has reputation for taking its time with talented horses rather than having them fully primed on debut; #7 BELLACOSE (6-1): Sold for $82,000 late last year and debuts for a barn that sent out the winner of last week’s Grade 3 Sanford. Her second dam is Grade 3 winner Bahnah, and the most recent half-mile gate drill is pretty encouraging.

R4

Sharper Gal
Pebble Lane
Permed

#5 SHARPER GAL (5/2): Takes a big drop from a starter allowance race to a claiming event for non-winners of two. Prior to the last-out clunker, she aired in a sprint at Churchill Downs, and a return to form would make her a major player; #6 PEBBLE LANE (12-1): Is an opportunity to use one of my favorite angles in racing. This one was off more than a year after a two-back clunker, then almost certainly needed the last-out effort. If she gets back to her late-2022 form, she’s got a chance at a big price; #3 PERMED (3-1): May be one of the favorites, but I have some doubts. She ran in some pretty tough maiden races as a 2-year-old, graduated for a $40,000 tag at Gulfstream, then showed up at Monmouth and did no running as a 2-1 favorite on turf. Here, she’s back on dirt, at a tricky distance, for a very, very low claiming tag given her pedigree. Her best race could win, but red flags abound.

R5

Ichiban (MTO)
Olivia Maralda
A Primera Vista

#9 OLIVIA MARALDA (8/5): Fired a big shot in the Grade 1 Gamely at Santa Anita, where she was a close-up second behind a high-quality mare. She takes a massive class drop into the optional claiming ranks, adds Lasix, and maintains top rider Flavien Prat; #1 A PRIMERA VISTA (10-1): Has won three in a row since adding Lasix for the first time and gets a major class test here. Inside speed can be tough on the inner turf, and it’s always notable when Frankie Dettori gets on a talented grass horse for the first time; #2 BE YOUR BEST (7/2): Looked like a future star back in 2022, when she won two races at the Spa (including the P.G. Johnson). However, she hasn’t won since and runs against non-stakes opponents for the first time in almost two years. She could wake up and run well, but this is hardly a soft spot for the level.

R6

Hue
Parade Ring
Sassy Allie

#2 HUE (4-1): Didn’t run well in her debut, which was rained off the turf. Her bottom-side pedigree is all-grass, and I think she may have learned a lot in her initial outing. The class drop certainly doesn’t hurt, and ignore this barn at your own peril; #6 PARADE RING (9/2): Runs for a tag for the first time and debuted with a solid third here last summer. This barn has had a year to forget to this point, but the horses that like this turf sprint route can often wake up in these races; #10 SASSY ALLIE (10-1): Is another whose debut was moved to the main track. She’s since worked almost exclusively on turf, which sure seems like a clue, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., rides back when he almost certainly had several options.

R7

Theresasilverlinin
Obrigada
She Caught My Eye

#10 THERESASILVERLININ (2-1): Is one of two in here for Mike Maker, who looks to get going after a tough start to the met. This filly, though, gets a cushy outside draw, top speed rider Luis Saez, and a race shape that should play to her front-running style; #7 OBRIGADA (8-1): Gets a significant rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., after a race out of the Wilson chute that, for her, was probably over at the start. Blinkers go on, and the recent uptick in her workouts includes a four-furlong bullet earlier this month; #9 SHE CAUGHT MY EYE (5-1): Makes her first start since October and has every right to contend if she’s ready to run. She was second here in a similar spot a season ago, and it also helps that she’s got a win at this tricky seven-furlong distance.

R8

Amy’s Light
Soloshot
Bossy Jeans

#8 AMY’S LIGHT (20-1): Is strictly a value play in a race where I have no strong opinion. Her race two back on turf against open company was pretty good, and while the two-turn trip is a question mark (as it is for almost every horse in this field), I’m confident turf is the surface she wants, and we’ll likely get a very appealing price; #3 SOLOSHOT (4-1): Beat a number of these going shorter last time out downstate and could cap off a big day for Irad. She’s got plenty of early speed and should be prominent from the jump; #10 BOSSY JEANS (9/2): Is the only horse in this field with a win going two turns on turf. That came in a maiden claimer downstate, but that was also her first try since November. It’s possible something’s clicked as she’s gotten older, and the presence of Luis Saez is a plus.

R9

Maturity Date (MTO)
Pay the Bills
Hill entry

#13 PAY THE BILLS (7/2): Needs a scratch to draw in but figures to be a handful if she does. The runner-up from her debut, Strife, came back to run well here last week, and this is a significantly weaker field. Add in the likelihood of a step forward at second asking, and I think you have a likely winner; #1 TRUE MYTH (9/2): May have needed her most recent race, where she steadied, raced last early, and rallied to finish a better-than-it-looked fifth. Blinkers go on second off the bench, and I don’t think she needs to improve much to be a factor; #6 CLASSIC CARA (8-1): Responded to the drop in class last time out with a second-place finish at odds of 22-1. Javier Castellano seemed to get along with her pretty well that day. He’s back in the irons here, with a better draw, and she could sit an ideal stalking trip just off the speed.