BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $841.45

There are times where I wonder if I’m doing things wrong, and horse racing Twitter doesn’t do anything to quiet those doubts. We’re three-quarters of the way through the meet, and the tweets I’ve put out that have had the most engagement involve the price of breakfast at San Francisco International Airport, Christophe Clement’s magical salmon pants, and newspapers on benches (more on those Saturday; that’s called foreshadowing, kids!).

But then there are times where I think I’m onto something. As I tweeted Monday, my site, AndrewChampagne.com, set a record with 22,000 visitors last summer, when I had the Saratoga meet of my life. With 11 racing days to go, we’ve eclipsed that total, and 30,000 is a total that’s within sight.

I’m weird. I think there’s value in hard work and pushing out the best content one can on a daily basis. Times have changed, and there aren’t as many people doing what I do anymore. To those of you that have taken the time to read my stuff: Thanks.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Devamani got no pace to close into, and I had the race after that one wrong, too. I dropped $30.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: Let’s add another variable to my action and, for the first time this summer, play a steeplechase race. I’ll focus on the early double, which starts with the Michael G. Walsh Novice Stakes. My $4 tickets start with #1 FREDDY FLINTSHIRE and #7 SCORPION’S REVENGE, and end with #3 GAMBLING GIRL and #7 AUGUST BLOOM.

TOTAL WAGERED: $16.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Roderick, Race 5
Longshot: Drakon, Race 7

R1

Scorpion’s Revenge
Freddy Flintshire
Decisive Triumph

#7 SCORPION’S REVENGE: Came from way back to win a listed stakes race last time out, and he’s 3-for-3 going 2 1/4 miles or longer over fences. This 2 3/8-mile trip should hit him right between the eyes, and I think he’ll be tough to hold off; #1 FREDDY FLINTSHIRE: Made it two in a row with a solid score over allowance foes earlier this summer. He goes out for one of the top barns on the steeplechase circuit, gets one of the top riders, and is a major player provided he takes to the added distance; #3 DECISIVE TRIUMPH: Hasn’t won in a while but has hit the board four times in as many starts this season, all in stakes races. Most recently, he was second in the Kiser a few weeks ago, and he figures to be prominent from the jump (no pun intended).

R2

Gambling Girl
August Bloom
Maddie’s Grace

#3 GAMBLING GIRL: Has had two pretty rough trips in both of her outings and gets one more chance from me here. She’s shown late interest twice now, and this Todd Pletcher trainee runs like a horse that’ll appreciate this seven-furlong journey; #7 AUGUST BLOOM: Debuts for Joe Sharp, sports a few solid drills, and may benefit from a cushy outside draw. This daughter of Arrogate attracts Luis Saez, who likely had several options here; #5 MADDIE’S GRACE: Was an OK third in her debut race, and that day’s runner-up has since come back to win. This barn has been ice-cold all meet long, but improvement is logical at second asking, and of the ones that have run before, she seems to have the most early speed.

R3

Tommy Gun (MTO)
Built to Last
Sharp Sensation

#4 BUILT TO LAST: Almost certainly went too fast early on last time when fifth against maiden special weight foes. He drops in for a tag for the first time, and while it’s not as big a drop as it may seem given the shared state-bred condition, he sure looks like the one to catch; #5 SHARP SENSATION: Settled for second behind a much-the-best winner at this level and route earlier in the meet. He crossed the wire first in a similar race downstate before being disqualified, and Luis Saez sees fit to ride back; #1 SOUTHERN CIVILITY: Comes back to turf, which is probably his preferred surface, and would benefit from a pace meltdown. It’s not like he’s gotten routed in his two prior turf sprints, and he figures to be a big price.

R4

Brawndo
Cole Spur
Cathedral Beach

#2 BRAWNDO: Was third in his first start off a freshening down at Laurel Park and comes up from Maryland for this event. What intrigues me most is that he brings that day’s pilot along with him for just one single mount. This makes me think he’s well-meant against what hits me as a suspect field for the level; #4 COLE SPUR: Has a record that looks far better if you toss the two-back clunker against a far better starter allowance group. He was second when last seen at Churchill back in June, and he’s got the speed to be a factor from a very early stage; #3 CATHEDRAL BEACH: Capitalized on a big class drop earlier this summer with a runaway score. He was claimed out of that race and tries open claiming company after thrashing that field of non-winners of two.

R5

Roderick
Kinetic Sky
Good Culture

#5 RODERICK: Has shown early speed against far better horses and takes a drop in class to this restricted claiming event. Trainer Phil Bauer has been sending out live horses all summer long, and I think this one gets very comfortable dictating terms early on; #6 KINETIC SKY: May have needed his 2022 debut, which came off a very long break. He’s another class-dropper, and it helps that the last-out second-place finisher came back to win impressively last week; #3 GOOD CULTURE: Was third last time out in a race without a lot of early pace, which didn’t exactly play to his strengths. He generally runs the same race every time out, and he’d benefit from another rival going with my top pick as the field exits the Wilson chute.

R6

King Angelo
Under Oath
Thin White Duke

#5 KING ANGELO: Is certainly a “horse for course” that does his best running going short on turf at Saratoga. He earned a 91 Beyer Speed Figure in his wire-to-wire score last time out, and while this is a pretty good field, it’s tough for me to go against a horse that likes this track and seems to be in peak form; #3 UNDER OATH: Ran too poorly to be true last time out in his first race since the spring. He tries turf for the first time, but is kin to a three-time turf winner that contested last year’s Grade 3 Virginia Derby, so there’s reason to believe he’ll like the lawn; #6 THIN WHITE DUKE: Came flying late to be beaten a neck by the freakishly-fast Golden Pal, and my guess is he’ll go favored here. A repeat of that effort may win this one, but he sure seems to go out of his way to find trouble, and I hate picking horses like that on top (especially in sprint races that don’t leave much time for a runner to recover from poor racing luck).

R7

Drakon
The Prince’s Spur
Proven Hope

#9 DRAKON: Certainly looks like the lone early speed, which is always dangerous on Saratoga’s inner turf course. Kendrick Carmouche is one of the most aggressive gate riders on the circuit, and the game plan seems apparent: Get to the lead, get comfortable, and try to steal it at a bit of a price; #8 THE PRINCE’S SPUR: Drops in for a tag after a rough trip earlier this summer against maiden special weight foes. He was still fourth that day, beaten less than four lengths, and he should certainly appreciate the shallower waters; #5 PROVEN HOPE: Comes back to turf and tries two turns for the first time, and I think this is what he wants to do. Sire Street Boss is an excellent turf influence, and broodmare sire Smart Strike is one of the top stamina influences in the game.

R8

Lil Commissioner
Crypto Cash
Boldish

#5 LIL COMMISSIONER: Makes his first start for a small barn that’s enjoyed plenty of success at this stand. He woke up on a big class drop last time out, has a race history that includes some pretty heavy hitters, and may be tough if he runs his usual race; #2 CRYPTO CASH: Has hit the board in each of his last six starts and has bounced around between barns on this circuit. A few of his races downstate were very good, and he’d benefit from a fast pace that could very well materialize; #3 BOLDISH: Scratched out of a race earlier this summer where I tried to beat him, but I think he isn’t without a chance here. He’s been off since January but got very good late last year, when he won three in a row for this outfit (including one race at this route).

R9

Tide of the Sea
Bluegrass Parkway
Oceans Map

#3 TIDE OF THE SEA: May not be the horse he was a year or two ago, but he sure seems like the lone early speed in the John’s Call. If he’s allowed to get comfortable and dictate terms in this 1 5/8-mile turf marathon, I’m not sure anyone will be able to come get him; #2 BLUEGRASS PARKWAY: Showed a bit more early interest last time, when he was beaten less than four lengths in a similar spot at Colonial Downs. This is his third start off the bench for Mike Maker, and he showed enough late last year for his connections to run him in the Grade 1 Canadian International at Woodbine; #4 OCEANS MAP: Ships up from Monmouth, where he most recently ran a fast-closing second going a bit shorter. However, he won a stakes race at Delaware Park going 1 1/2 miles last summer, so this sort of trip isn’t entirely foreign to him.

R10

Chaysenbryn (MTO)
Control Function
Quaria Thunder

#8 CONTROL FUNCTION: Hasn’t run since January, but is working consistently ahead of her return and showed some potential before going to the sidelines. These are aggressive connections that could’ve found a much softer spot, and a return to her winter form would make her tough; #10 QUARIA THUNDER: Has improved since shipping up to New York, and sports two wins and two seconds since making that journey. This is a class test, and the outside post doesn’t help, but Jose Camejo does fantastic work with new acquisitions and she may have the speed to clear most of these going into the first turn; #5 STELLA MARS: Didn’t get up last time out, and in doing so made my all-time nightmare reel (I needed her pretty badly that day). Maybe it’s scorn, but it’s worth noting that while her usual race gives her a chance, both of her wins came sprinting downstate. This begs the question: Does she want two turns?

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $871.45

Putting together a list of people I was delighted to run into over the past week or so would make my editor very displeased, because it’d take up most of this page. I’ll simply say that it’s been amazing to reconnect with a bunch of people (and connect with some new folks, too).

I get asked sometimes if I miss working in horse racing on a full-time basis. I don’t. My income is tied to the gambling industry in general now, not just racing, and I work for an amazing company that values content production and invests in people who are passionate about what they do. The work I do in racing is an added bonus, and I do it because I want to, not because I have to.

However, I very much miss the people I’ve come to know and value not just as colleagues, but friends. If you’re reading this, and we’ve talked for any length of time over the last few days at Saratoga: Thanks.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Neither of my closers in the Smart N Fancy fired. I dropped $29.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fifth race. #3 DEVAMANI looks imposing there, so I’ll have a $15 win ticket on that one. I’ll also single him in $5 doubles ending with #5 RARIFY, #7 SPELTERINI, and #8 ROSIE’S ALIBI in the sixth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Love Reigns, Race 9
Longshot: Miscreant, Race 10

R1

Cookie Crumbs
Corningstone
Hola Gata

#5 COOKIE CRUMBS: Has a few big works since shipping up from Monmouth Park for Todd Pletcher, who probably wouldn’t have moved her here without a good reason. Both prior runners out of this dam are winners, her second dam was a Grade 1 winner, and Luis Saez has been enticed to ride; #8 CORNINGSTONE: Rallied to finish third in the “no contest” race last month, and of the ones that exit that race, this is the one I want to bet back. The pace of that race was very slow, and I think this one may be a bit more lively; #7 HOLA GATA: Was one of the horses that slowed to a stop in the “no contest” race, and they’ll try again here. Her works since that race have been slow, which isn’t ideal, but dismiss this barn, in these races, at your own peril.

R2

Quickflash (MTO)
Yarrow
Phantom Smoke

#6 YARROW: Rallied to win his second straight start over an OK group, one that included a runner-up which came right back to win at next asking. There’s some speed signed on in this one, and he and Joel Rosario look like the tandem they’ll have to hold off late; #7 PHANTOM SMOKE: Was third behind two “horses for courses” at this level and route last month. On speed figures, he’s definitely got a shot, but I’m worried there’s a bit of “hang” to him, and there are some talented runners in this one, too; #2 DEEP COVER: Didn’t make the lead last time and faded to run sixth, which was probably the impetus for a rider change to Eric Cancel. My guess is he’ll be prominent from the jump, and a repeat of his two-back performance would put him right there.

R3

Forty Smooth
Englehart entry
Nurse Rachett

#3 FORTY SMOOTH: Is protected from being claimed given the long layoff, and I love it when trainers utilize that rule. It hints at confidence and not wanting to lose the horse, and if she takes her Woodbine and Gulfstream form with her, she’ll have a big chance; ENGLEHART ENTRY: I prefer #1 VIRADIA, who goes back to this barn after running second going a bit longer downstate. She’s won twice already this season and seems to be in good form; #5 NURSE RACHETT: Hasn’t won in a while but goes to a barn that wins with new acquisitions at an astonishing 40% clip. How she’ll perform in her first start on this circuit in a while is anyone’s guess, but she’ll be a price and a step forward would give her a chance.

R4

Icon
Vincent
Arthurian

#7 ICON: Has run third in two starts against similar since coming off the bench, and he cuts back in distance for this event. The field he faced going a mile last time out was probably better than this one, and he doesn’t have to move forward in order to be a major player; #2 VINCENT: Broke his maiden two back before finding allowance foes just a bit too tough. This is probably the right level, and he could work out an ideal stalking trip; #4 ARTHURIAN: Flashed speed earlier in the meet in his first start against winners. That race was won by a much-the-best class-dropper, and he was beaten just 2 1/2 lengths by the runner-up. This seems like a weaker group, and he should be prominent early once again.

R5

Royal Tryst (MTO)
Devamani
Grand Journey

#3 DEVAMANI: Has spent the bulk of his career running against much, much better horses. He’s a multiple graded stakes winner that shows up for a $32,000 tag, and I have a tough time believing we’ll get something close to the 5/2 morning line price (though I’ll gladly take it if it’s available come post time); #6 GRAND JOURNEY: Has run well in all three New York starts this season, including a race for a slightly higher tag where he was second and earned a solid 87 Beyer Speed Figure. This barn has been very cold at this stand, but this gelding’s a consistent runner that merits a long look; #8 TIBERIUS MERCURIUS: Was likely worn down by a very quick third quarter last time out, when he finished fourth in the same race my second selection exits. He’ll likely be prominent from an early stage again here beneath Luis Saez.

R6

Spelterini
Rarify
Rosie’s Alibi

#7 SPELTERINI: Came from well back to be second in what sure seems like a live race. That day’s third-place finisher came back to win impressively at second asking, and the pedigree says this one will appreciate the extra furlong she gets in this spot; #5 RARIFY: Showed speed when second in her unveiling earlier this summer, when she was reeled in by the talented Kaling. She should make the lead here once again, and it wouldn’t be surprising if she proves tough to run down; #8 ROSIE’S ALIBI: Figures to take plenty of money given the ownership group and the fact she’s been outworking the talented Moma, who won last weekend. She hammered for $625,000 last summer across the street, and she’s got a shot in this intriguing 2-year-old maiden event.

R7

Claytnthelionheart (MTO)
Balthus
Offlee Naughty

#3 BALTHUS: Comes in off of two wins in a row at long distances downstate and looms large in this 12-furlong marathon. Some horses just relish these trips. He sure seems to be one of them, and if he’s right, this race is probably for second; #9 OFFLEE NAUGHTY: Hasn’t won this year, but has been keeping some pretty tough company. It wasn’t too long ago he was 5-1 in a Grade 3 at Santa Anita, and I expect him to be running on late at a price; #1 MUD PIE: Makes his first start as a gelding here, and perhaps the ultimate equipment change will help him. He seems to be pace-dependent, but we know he can run well at this distance, and that’s a huge asset.

R8

Repealing
Chloe Rose
Awesome Indra

#2 REPEALING: May have bounced a bit off of a very sharp two-back score when third as the 9/5 favorite in her first start against winners. I’m expecting a return to form here, and such a race would make her a formidable favorite; #4 CHLOE ROSE: Won a starter allowance event here in the first few days of the meet and has clearly shown an affinity for the Spa. She’s 2-for-3 with a second over this surface, and I think she could benefit from rating just off of a fast pace; #3 AWESOME INDRA: Didn’t make the lead last time out and paid dearly for it when off the board at this level and route. However, I think she’s capable of much better. She won four of six starts prior to that race, and the switch back to Irad Ortiz, Jr., is a notable one.

R9

Love Reigns
Redifined
Aztec Nights

#2 LOVE REIGNS: Romped in her debut before finishing a competitive fourth in the Group 2 Queen Mary at Royal Ascot. All indications are she’s trained forwardly since her return, and a repeat of her debut effort likely trounces this Bolton Landing field; #7 REDIFINED: Won first time out for a barn that doesn’t win with many firsters, so you know there’s talent there. John Velazquez likely had several options, but he lands here, and the maturity she showed when rating in her debut isn’t common; #6 AZTEC NIGHTS: Came running late to win her debut and seems like one of several precocious Sharp Azteca offspring. The lone work since that win looks excellent, and a move forward would give her a big shot to hit the board at a nice price.

R10

Vagaries
Miscreant
Candlestick Maker

#8 VAGARIES: Drops in for a tag after misfiring downstate in her 2022 debut. Her two runs last year weren’t bad, including a third-place finish in her debut last August, and I think she’ll appreciate the shallower waters in the Sunday finale; #6 MISCREANT: Improved considerably in her first turf start, when she ran second behind a horse that came right back to top winners at next asking. The rider switch to Jose Ortiz is noteworthy, and she’s lightly-raced enough to still have some improvement left in her; #9 CANDLESTICK MAKER: Showed some interest when fourth for a higher claiming tag and drops in class a bit here. She may have been a bit too close to the pace last time, and given the late kick she showed two back at Belmont, she’d likely benefit from a pace meltdown should one occur.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $918.45

Thursday produced a lot of reactions for reasons that have nothing to do with on-track action. However, there’s one reaction I feel has largely been missed. I’ll use this space to help fill that void, since nobody else seems to be in any hurry to do it.

The National Domestic Violence Hotline number is (800) 799-7233. You can also text the word START to 88788, or visit thehotline.org for more information.

If you need help, get it before it’s too late. There’s no shame at all in asking for it, and resources are out there that anyone in need can use.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Key horse Caragate ran well, but was second-best in the second race of the day. I dropped $20.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’m going after the early Pick Five, where I think several favorites are very beatable (and that one is a single worth building your ticket around). My 50-cent ticket starting in the first goes like this: 1,4,6 with 1,3,7 with 2,6 with 1 with 1,3,5,7.

TOTAL WAGERED: $36.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Klaravich entry, Race 4
Longshot: Diamond Status, Race 2

R1

Strong Light
Cheeky Tico
No Code

#1 STRONG LIGHT: Ships in from Churchill Downs and is a closer in what looks like a race with plenty of speed. I don’t love the July 16th race several of these exit, and I think this will be the one they need to hold off; #6 CHEEKY TICO: Comes back to the right level after being eased against straight maidens going two turns last month. He was a good second against similar two back downstate, and a similar effort gives him a big chance; #4 NO CODE: May have bounced a bit last time out off of a second-place finish at this level and distance at Belmont. Todd Pletcher sticks with the apprentice, who seems to get along with him pretty well.

R2

Gather the Facts
Beachfront Bid
Diamond Status

#7 GATHER THE FACTS: Ran second in her debut, had a nightmarish trip last time out, and drops in class for Chad Brown. The other Brown runner may take more money, but this one’s first effort was quite good, and I think this is the one they need to step up to beat; #1 BEACHFRONT BID: May go favored for the top outfit on the circuit, but it sure seems like she goes out of her way to find trouble. Perhaps the class drop will wake her up, but the inside draw isn’t kind to horses that often encounter unlucky trips, and she’ll be a pretty short price; #3 DIAMOND STATUS: Seems to have found new life on the turf and was a decent second at Belmont going seven furlongs. I don’t think the extra furlong or two turns will be issues, the recent works are very strong, and this is the one that may provide some value.

R3

Alejandro
Bourbon Calling
Two Thirty Five

#2 ALEJANDRO: Very rarely runs a bad race and comes in off of a nice win in a first-level allowance at Churchill Downs. That was just his second win in 12 lifetime starts, but there aren’t any monsters in this group and it’s possible this regally-bred 4-year-old is in career-best form; #6 BOURBON CALLING: Hasn’t won in a while but has been going against stiff competition and makes his second start off the bench in this spot. His return going seven furlongs was just fine, and he stretches out to his preferred trip here; #5 TWO THIRTY FIVE: Has cracked the exacta in four straight outings, including a race at this route last month. Joel Rosario sees fit to ride back in his first start off the claim for Steve Klesaris, and his usual effort doesn’t leave him without a shot.

R4

Klaravich entry
Whiskey Lullaby
Logan’s Runner

KLARAVICH ENTRY: It isn’t often you see NYRA morning line man David Aragona install a 1/5 favorite, but the 1-2 punch of #1 TRANSACTIONAL and #1A INDEMNIFY looks very imposing. One’s a promising first-time starter, the other ran well when second on debut, and while nothing’s impossible, I’d be shocked if one of these runners didn’t win; #4 WHISKEY LULLABY: Ran well when third last time out for a $75,000 tag and is ambitiously-spotted here against the boys. However, she sure seems like the main speed in this race, and I think she could lead them a pretty long way; #5 LOGAN’S RUNNER: Has every right to need a race but is bred to be a good one. This son of Pioneerof the Nile and a Grade 3-winning daughter of Distorted Humor hammered for $230,000 back in 2020, and it’s not like Bruce Levine can’t win with first-time starters.

R5

Perfect Silent Cat
Eminency
Joey Loose Lips

#5 PERFECT SILENT CAT: Gets a massive trainer change to Joe Sharp and comes in off of a very strong five-furlong drill last week. Between the new surroundings, that workout, and a significant drop in class, I think he’s strictly the one to beat; #7 EMINENCY: Won a photo finish downstate to break his maiden and tries winners for the first time. This barn hits at a 21% clip with new acquisitions and has retained Luis Saez, who probably had a few options in here; #3 JOEY LOOSE LIPS: Hasn’t been out of the barn in nearly a year and returns for a claiming tag after chasing Americanrevolution in last year’s Albany. The spot is a bit strange, and he also may be going a bit shorter than he truly wants, but he’s a contender if he’s ready to fire.

R6

Chulligan (MTO)
Provision
Secretary of War

#9 PROVISION: Was second in his debut going two turns, which is never an easy first-out assignment. The outside post position isn’t ideal, but he’s shown some early speed and may be able to clear most of this group going into the first turn; #2 SECRETARY OF WAR: Was third in that race and finished more than three lengths clear of that day’s fourth-place finisher. He was just a length or so back of my top selection, and it wouldn’t be stunning to see this one turn the tables; #6 LET’S GO BIG BLUE: Sold for $200,000 and has every right to be precocious as a half-brother to Grade 1-winning 2-year-old Pinehurst. There isn’t a ton here that screams “turf,” but there is plenty of talent in his bloodlines, and that’s what may carry him through.

R7

Awesome Indra (MTO)
Crowding Out
Freedom Speaks

#5 CROWDING OUT: Has yet to run a poor race and edged an impressive next-out winner in a race at this route last month. She’s got a solid late kick, but she can also sit a bit close to the pace, which gives jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., plenty of options; #1 FREEDOM SPEAKS: Broke her maiden with an emphatic six-length score two back on the synthetic at Gulfstream Park before finishing second in a minor stakes race. That day’s winner has since won again, and while this is her first start on grass, her dam has thrown a few OK turf runners; #6 TUSCAN QUEEN: Ran second at this level and route a few weeks ago and has run a few very nice races sprinting over this turf course. This is her third start off of a long layoff for a talented trainer (one that should’ve been allowed to talk more at Wednesday’s Racing and Gaming Conference panel!), and another step forward could be in the offing.

R8

Bonny South
Army Wife
Envoutante

#7 BONNY SOUTH: Hasn’t won since April of 2021 but can be forgiven for some of those efforts given the top-flight competition she faced. She’s a closer that needs some pace in front of her to run at, but I think she’ll get just that in the Summer Colony; #1 ARMY WIFE: Ran in several very tough spots a season ago and placed in a pair of Grade 1 events in the back half of the year. One of those was the Alabama over this surface, and she’s got enough tactical speed to work out a trip from the tricky rail draw; #3 ENVOUTANTE: Has run just once this year, in March, but seems to be training forwardly ahead of her return. I do think it’s possible she prefers Churchill Downs, but Churchill shippers have done just fine to this point in the meet.

R9

Mariah’s Fortune (MTO)
Judge Judith
Diva Ready

#8 JUDGE JUDITH: Comes in on a three-race win streak at three different tracks, which is pretty cool to see. This does represent a step up in class, but there isn’t a ton of early speed signed on. That could allow her to get comfortable early on and sit a perfect trip; #6 DIVA READY: Ran second against a weaker group last time and was claimed out of that race by Rudy Rodriguez. That barn’s been ice-cold all meet long, at just 1-for-50, but that last effort did come in a very fast race for the level and she boasts a win going two turns at Delaware Park; #3 HATARI: Benefited from a perfect trip last time to win going away in her first start for a tag since December. Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back, and a few runners that show up here exit the same race she won.

R10

Oxymore
Appraise
Noble Huntsman

#3 OXYMORE: Looked like a very promising 2-year-old when breaking his maiden by six lengths downstate at first asking. He’s since been moved to the Chad Brown barn, and between that move and this being just his second lifetime start, he’s got a big chance to move forward in the Skidmore; #8 APPRAISE: Got his nose down at 11-1 in his debut and completes yet another powerful 1-2 punch for this barn. He showed some grit that day when digging in to get the money, and it helps that he’s got some tactical speed, too; #6 NOBLE HUNTSMAN: Romped in his unveiling a few weeks ago, which came against New York-breds. Going up to open company isn’t a small jump, but he looked solid in his first-out score, especially since this isn’t an outfit that wins with many debuting runners.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $938.45

I spent a few days earlier this week at the Racing and Gaming Conference. By and large, it was a fantastic event that drew people from around both the horse racing and gambling industries. I met officials, horsepeople, and reporters alike, and I thoroughly enjoyed it.

However, they whiffed on a panel discussing the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, or HISA. While hearing from HISA CEO Lisa Lazarus was insightful, highly-respected trainer John Kimmel was part of the panel. The group took 49 minutes to ask Kimmel, the only person in the group to works with horses on a daily basis, a question, instead deferring to political types (one of whom went on a 15-minute monologue about the process behind the nominating committee).

As a colleague pointed out during the session, this is an awfully good example of why horse racing has struggled at times. Want to know if HISA is working? Talk to a horseperson who’s in the trenches every day. We don’t need more suits. We need more horsepeople.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: I couldn’t have given you the winner of the fifth race without the “ALL” button, and my $36 Pick Four ticket fizzled.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: My action comes early. I’ll lean on #4 CARAGATE in the second race in hopes she’ll run her record at this meet to 2-for-2. She’s a single for me in $10 doubles starting in the second that end with #4 GET THE CANDY and #6 JILL’S A HOT MESS.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Busy Morning, Race 9
Longshot: Ableton, Race 10

R1

Olympic Dreams
Sensibleconclusion
Lucky Mucho Man

#6 OLYMPIC DREAMS: Is a reluctant top pick in one of two highly-perplexing races on the Thursday program. He was bet first time out in a turf route, when he wasn’t persevered with downstate. The blinkers go on, and maybe he improves at second asking on the class drop; #1 SENSIBLECONCLUSION: Makes his third start of the season, which is no small feat, and he’s shown a new dimension in his last several outings. A speed horse over the winter, he’s shown he can rate and pass others, which could prove helpful; #2 LUCKY MUCHO MAN: Was third in a race at this route last month, as well as a similar race at Belmont two back. At a minimum, you know he’s been reasonably competitive at this level, and his usual race likely gets him a slice.

R2

Caragate
Ifihadachance
Ok Honey

#4 CARAGATE: Ran away with a first-level allowance race last month, and while that was far from the strongest race for the level, she sure seems to be going the right way on speed figures. That 79 Beyer Speed Figure was a new career-high, and Castellano stays up; #5 IFIHADACHANCE: Hasn’t won in a while, but is competitive on numbers and sports two solid efforts over this surface last year. This barn usually wins a fair bit up here, and it’s due to get rolling at some point; #1 OK HONEY: Likely went a bit shorter than she prefers last time out, and she gets some added ground here. That day’s runner-up came right back to win, and she should get some pace to run at in this event.

R3

Jil’s a Hot Mess
Get the Candy
Bucci entry

#6 JILL’S A HOT MESS: Does her best running at this route and was a good second behind a stakes-caliber filly last time out. She won here twice a season ago, retains John Velazquez, and may have enough speed to save some ground going into the turn; #4 GET THE CANDY: Sure seems like the one the rest will have to run down. She hasn’t won in a while, but she’s certainly the speed on the speed on paper and has every right to get very comfortable out of the gate; BUCCI ENTRY: I prefer #1A SASSY MELISSA, who was wide last time against several of these and may have bounced off of some solid efforts downstate. A return to form gives her a shot, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s a bit closer in the early going.

R4

Flamingo Hawk
Stage Left
Mexican Wonder Boy

#5 FLAMINGO HAWK: Ran a career-best race last time out and is protected off the claim in this spot. However, that was a pretty strong race for the level, and this event includes several rivals he beat last month. Anything close to that lifetime-best performance would make him tough; #4 STAGE LEFT: Romped against first-level allowance foes last month and clearly enjoys the Spa. He’s 3-for-5 over this main track, rarely runs a poor race, and would benefit from a battle up front; #2 MEXICAN WONDER BOY: Didn’t run poorly when second last time out, but he gets wheeled back very quickly first off the claim. His best may be good enough, but I don’t think he’ll be alone up front, and the short turnaround time is a definite question mark.

R5

Childers
Forbidden Secret
Clear the Deck

#2 CHILDERS: Is kin to three multiple winners, including Grade 2-winning 2-year-old Shotski, and has been working well ahead of his unveiling. Several of those drills have been from the gate, which leads me to believe he’ll be prominent right away; #6 FORBIDDEN SECRET: Checked back early in his debut a few weeks ago, which was won by a runaway victor. Irad Ortiz, Jr., rides back, and the experience edge he has over most of this group could be a sizable asset; #5 CLEAR THE DECK: Has hit the board in all three starts to date and wouldn’t be a shock. He adds blinkers for Ken McPeek, and he’s shown an ability to rate, which isn’t common among 2-year-olds at this point in the season.

R6

Orange Freeze
Dream On Cara
Sarah’s Dialed In

#8 ORANGE FREEZE: Remember the two confounding races? This is the other one. In a field of 2-year-olds without much proven form signed on, this one intrigues me the most. This daughter of Freud is out of a mare that won on the turf, and she hammered for $112,000 across the street last summer; #3 DREAM ON CARA: Rated in a race without much early speed last time, which is rarely a recipe for success. Castellano rides back, the blinkers go on, and I think there’s a chance she gets a friendlier race shape here; #5 SARAH’S DIALED IN: Debuts for Mike Dini, whose first-out numbers on turf aren’t great. However, she’s kin to a few OK grass runners, including a couple that won going long. Against a field full of question marks, that may be enough.

R7

Leddy (MTO)
Immortalization
Charles Chrome

#7 IMMORTALIZATION: Showed speed against better last time out, when he faded to fourth in a non-winners-of-one allowance at this route. That zip he showed wasn’t a fluke, and I don’t know if any other runner in this field can match strides with him early; #3 CHARLES CHROME: Makes his first start for David Jacobson off of a four-month break. His prior connections ran him in a few stakes races last season, and he didn’t run poorly in either event. If he’s ready, he’s got a big shot; #2 VETERANS BEACH: Has had far too many chances for my liking and is impossible to endorse on top, but he does generally run the same race every time out and drops into the claiming ranks. His last-out effort here was fine, and that day’s runner-up came right back to win at next asking.

R8

Nabokov
Complete Agenda
Warrior Johny

#3 NABOKOV: Spat the bit in the Grade 3 Dwyer and wasn’t persevered with that day, when he went off 2-1 in a race won by Travers hopeful Charge It. He gets Lasix again today after leaving the stakes ranks, and that could enable him to run back to a strong two-back effort downstate; #2 COMPLETE AGENDA: Has been chasing some very good ones of late and was most recently fourth behind graded stakes winner Keepmeinmind. That was his first race off a three-month freshening, and perhaps he’s rounding into form in the back half of his 3-year-old campaign; #5 WARRIOR JOHNY: Ships in for a barn that’s won at a high rate with a small string this season. He may have moved a bit early last time out in his first start against winners, but he’s been putting up decent speed figures and may be a bit of a price in here.

R9

Busy Morning
Howdyoumakeurmoney
Dream Central

#6 BUSY MORNING: Took a step forward last time out with an impressive score where she powered away to win by six. She also wasn’t disgraced when the winner of her debut race turned out to be an OK runner, and I think she’s sitting on a new career-best effort at third asking; #5 HOWDYOUMAKEURMONEY: Hasn’t won in quite a while, but her 2022 season includes several tries against open stakes company. She hasn’t been beaten too much in those races, and while I question if she really wants two turns, I don’t question her ability at this level; #4 DREAM CENTRAL: Sat a perfect trip last time out in a similar race, when she made the last move the winning move. The runners from that event haven’t come back to run well, though, and it’s telling that Lezcano hops off to ride my top pick (who probably goes off the favorite).

R10

Loz
Lookin Grand
Ableton

#8 LOZ: Drops in for a tag and has been working considerably better the past few weeks ahead of his first start against maiden claiming company. It’s possible that doesn’t mean much, but between that and the return to a two-turn configuration, I think there’s stuff to like in a wide-open finale; #6 LOOKIN GRAND: Comes up from Belmont and was one-paced in several one-turn route races. That running style likely fits this two-turn race far better, and John Velazquez sees fit to hang around and ride back for Charlton Baker; #2 ABLETON: Finished third behind Shinsun last time out, and I think that one’s got some talent. Blinkers go on this John Kimmel trainee, and a repeat effort gives him a chance at a big price.