BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $814.50

NYRA has done a great job minimizing the use of the Wilson chute…right up until this week. We’ll see nine races carded for the chute between now and Saturday, with three each day on Friday and Saturday.

Maybe I’m turning into a grumpy old man, but I want as much two-turn dirt racing as possible. There’s something special about starting and finishing in front of a huge crowd on the apron at one of the country’s premier racing venues, and showing off horses with stamina is never a bad thing. As I’ve said in past years, I worry that some cards rely on the chute too much, especially since most off-the-turf races carded at a mile or longer wind up there, too.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: My Grand Slam was alive for $10 going into the Quick Call, but heavy favorite Governor Sam was run down. I dropped $45.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: On a day where my betting opinions just won’t be that strong, let’s head to the eighth race, the Statue of Liberty Division of the New York Stallion Series. I’m of the opinion the Suzie O’Cain wasn’t a great race, so I’ll have a $20 win ticket on #8 NONNA LYNNE. Unlike others, she doesn’t exit that race, and I thought her maiden-breaking score was sharp.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Melle Mel, Race 7
Longshot: Zelena, Race 3

R1

Walk the Warrior
Evie’s Prince
Quick Master

#2 WALK THE WARRIOR (9/2): Has never been out of the money in seven U.S. tries and didn’t run badly when third in a similar stakes last time out. That day’s runner-up came right back to win, and I like that he has some tactical speed but doesn’t need the lead; #4 EVIE’S PRINCE (6-1): Hasn’t won in a while, but to be fair, some of those starts have been against much better horses. He won the Michael Walsh last year, and a return to his two-back form (when he was a sharp second in a Grade 1) would give him a big chance; #9 QUICK MASTER (8-1): Led briefly here last month before fading to finish third at this route of ground. Regular rider Graham Watters is one of the best jump jockeys around, and he hops back aboard for top steeplechase trainer Jack Fisher.

R2

My Noble Knight
Unlimitedpotential
Pineapple Man

#6 MY NOBLE KNIGHT (9/5): Was a good second behind a solid horse in Gilmore and cuts back to the Wilson chute. He’s shown he can pass others late, and it feels like he may be the lone closer in this spot; #5 UNLIMITEDPOTENTIAL (8/5): Is a six-time winner that hasn’t run a truly bad race this season. His best race would make him the one to catch, but his local record isn’t the greatest (that win last summer was against a putrid field), and if he’s so well-meant, why does this barn also enter #4 MARGIN OF AIR?; #3 PINEAPPLE MAN (6-1): Capitalized on a perfect front-running trip to find the winner’s circle last time out, and he’s shown he’s tough when that circumstance arises. I tend to prefer horses cutting back to the one-mile trip, and Kendrick Carmouche sees fit to ride back.

R3

My Devine One
Zelena
She’s Country

#5 MY DEVINE ONE (9/2): Didn’t do much running as a heavy favorite last time out, but I’m banking on an improved performance here. That race was initially carded for turf, and she gets that surface here. Add in that Bill Mott’s horses usually move forward second time out, and I’m not getting off the train yet; #2 ZELENA (12-1): Comes from another patient barn, but she’s bred up and down to be a very good turf horse. She’s by Kitten’s Joy and out of an English Channel mare that’s kin to several very classy routers, and if she’s ready first time out, I think she could get a big piece of this; #4 SHE’S COUNTRY (5/2): May go favored for George Weaver, but I have some doubts. There isn’t a ton of pedigree here, and I don’t see a workout longer than four furlongs on her sheet. Perhaps she’s well-meant, but at her likely price, I can’t back her.

R4

Gun Party
Drake’s Passage
Eliminate

#5 GUN PARTY (4/5): Looks tough to go against after a sharp last-out score in Kentucky. He moves up in class on paper, but it sure doesn’t seem like this race came up very tough for the level, and the tactical speed he showed last time out is a big plus; #1 DRAKE’S PASSAGE (3-1): Hasn’t run well of late, but he hits me as the lone true “speed horse” in this event. That’s sometimes very dangerous coming out of the chute, and such a setup could mean a return to his best form, which might be enough to win this; #3 ELIMINATE (5-1): Takes a big jump up the class ladder, but does so after two wins in his last three starts. If there’s any pace in here, this deep closer is the one that figures to benefit the most.

R5

Flying P entry
Fromanothamutha
Big Gain

FLYING P ENTRY (7/5): Both #2 STOLEN BASE and #2B BRESLAU are major players in here. The former has come to hand in his last two starts downstate, while the latter looks a lot better if you draw a line through the last-out clunker over a sloppy track he almost certainly hated; #3 FROMANOTHAMUTHA (9/2): Hasn’t won in a while but goes back to the Ray Handal barn, where he did some good work back in 2024. His last win, in fact, was in his last start for that outfit. They know him well, blinkers go back on, and Irad Ortiz Jr. sees fit to ride; #4 BIG GAIN (15-1): Will be a big price and needs to improve on speed figures, but he looks like one of only a few closers in this spot. He was claimed last time out by Rudy Rodriguez, whose record is a bit deceiving. He’s only won twice this season to date, but his runners have finished second or third 14 times.

R6

Eighty Gold (MTO)
Pazz the Soy Sauce
Pandemic Hero

#3 PAZZ THE SOY SAUCE (8/5): May be a hair overbet at or near the morning line price, but he does hit me as a likely candidate to improve second off the bench. He didn’t miss by much last time out, and any sort of a step forward would make him tough, but do demand value; #5 PANDEMIC HERO (9/2): Didn’t fire against stakes company last time out and returns to both the right level and the right surface. His two and three-back efforts were both solid, and the switch to Jose Ortiz is a big one; #7 ORIE (2-1): Came flying late to be beaten a head last time out. It’s worth noting, however, that that race fell apart pace-wise, and the forced move away from Flavien Prat (who’s serving a suspension after the Zulu Kingdom situation) doesn’t help him.

R7

Melle Mel
She’s Complicated
Our Lady Peace

#7 MELLE MEL (6/5): Takes a massive class drop to run here after a decent fourth in the slop last month. It wasn’t too long ago that she was fourth in a stakes race at Gulfstream, and anything close to her last-out or two-back efforts probably crushes this bunch; #6 SHE’S COMPLICATED (6-1): Is another dropping in class, though she does so for aggressive connections. She may have needed the last-out effort, which was her first race since April, and Jose Ortiz sticking with her inspires some confidence; #2 OUR LADY PEACE (9/2): Ran second in her dirt debut last time out at Gulfstream, and she dueled for most of that effort before settling for second money. She may not be alone on the lead, but the filly that may have been named for the rock band bearing the same moniker has also shown an ability to rate, which could come in handy.

R8

Stone Smuggler (MTO)
Nonna Lynne
Disco Star

#8 NONNA LYNNE (4-1): Steps up into stakes company for the Statue of Liberty, but she rated behind a pretty moderate pace last time and got the job done. Given her relative inexperience, she may have room to move forward, and she might not have to improve much to beat these; #1 DISCO STAR (5/2): Ran well to be second in the Suzie O’Cain and might be favored here because of that. Two things scare me, though. Closers drawing the rail often need to get lucky trip-wise, and I just think she’s better sprinting than routing; #3 TRAIL OF GOLD (4-1): May have lost the Suzie O’Cain in the opening strides, so I won’t hold that clunker against her too much. The win two back was a very good race, and she could contend if she gets back to that form.

R9

Celebrity Quest (MTO)
Keto Drink (AE)
Bint Mischief

#12 KETO DRINK (2-1): Needs two scratches to run but would be a force if she draws into the Wednesday finale. She made up a lot of ground in her debut, and this barn isn’t known for having first-time starters ready to roll. Expect improvement if she goes postward; #4 BINT MISCHIEF (4-1): Debuts for Will Walden and is bred to be a very good one. This daughter of Into Mischief boasts a world-class female family, with a dam that’s a half-sister to Australian Group 1 winner Pride Of Dubai and a third dam that threw Group 1 winner Rafha (the dam of Group 1 winner Invincible Spirit); #6 DELIGHTFUL DARLING (3-1): Has suffered a pair of pretty tough beats and has an experience edge over most of her rivals. She gets back to the turf here, and her debut saw her do lots of dirty work up front going short on the lawn at Churchill.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $859.50

My once-a-year reminder about a unique-to-NYRA wager comes today. The multi-race exotic menu can seem overwhelming at times, and there’s one bet that can get lost in the shuffle. That’s the Grand Slam, which isn’t a great play some days but is a fantastic wager on others. For those unfamiliar, it’s a four-race bet where you must pick at least one horse that finishes third or better in the first three legs, then pick the winner of the fourth leg.

I love playing it from time to time, provided certain parameters are followed. First, have a horse you like enough in the payoff leg to single. Next, don’t go greater than three-deep in any of the first three legs. Going against either of those principles means you aren’t getting the most from your bet (since you’re assured of a lot of losing combinations). If you can play a skinny ticket with a single on the end, though, it can act as an enhanced-value win bet.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Most of my action got cancelled when Trust Fund scratched out of the opener. I was left with a $5 double, which went up in smoke in the fourth.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: With a lead-in like the one I wrote, you have to know where I’m going. My $5 Grand Slam ticket starting in the sixth goes as follows: 4,6,12 with 3 with 1,4,8 with 9. The best-case scenario is that a few prices hit the board in the first three legs, which will allow me to potentially extract value from #9 GOVERNOR SAM in the ninth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $45.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Mr. Ripple, Race 2
Longshot: Big Brown Delivers, Race 6

R1

Chillax
St. Elias entry
Fun to Tap

#4 CHILLAX (5/2): Gets a tepid nod in an opener out of the chute where I simply don’t have a strong opinion. However, he ran well when second behind a perfect-trip winner last time out going a bit longer, and I tend to prefer horses cutting back to the chute over horses stretching out; ST. ELIAS ENTRY (2-1): #1A WORTHY CHARGE is the one people will bet, and he ran well to be third beaten just a length in his unveiling. Chad Brown has exceptional success with horses adding distance, and he’ll have every right to improve, but the outside post is not ideal; #3 FUN TO TAP (7/2): Has been off nine months, but ran well as a 2-year-old and adds Lasix for his return. He’s been working steadily for Todd Pletcher, attracts Irad Ortiz Jr., and is bred to get better as he gets older.

R2

Mr. Ripple
Le Gris
Leftembehind

#2 MR. RIPPLE (5/2): Got his first win since 2022 with a runaway score at Finger Lakes, and he runs for a tag for the first time ever in this spot. This barn has caught fire of late, and it’s possible the addition of blinkers last time out woke him up; #1 LE GRIS (2-1): Takes an absolutely massive class drop and may be favored, but I have some doubts. His last win came in February of 2024, in a race rained off the turf, and his last-out effort was a real clunker; #6 LEFTEMBEHIND (9/2): Is another that hasn’t won in a while and takes a drop. However, he’s a closer in a race with some early speed signed on, which makes him a candidate to be going the right way as the field turns for home.

R3

Caribbean Wind (MTO)
Tap to Mischief
Waralo

#4 TAP TO MISCHIEF (7/2): Comes back to the turf, and while he didn’t run badly on dirt last time out, this feels like the surface he wants. His debut going short on turf was very good, and he may have moved forward since that July 2024 effort; #5 WARALO (2-1): Is 2-for-2 since going to the grass in May and figures to be prominent early. He may not be alone up top, but he did show an ability to stalk a bit in his two-back score downstate; #6 IRISH GENT (3-1): Hasn’t raced since November of 2023, when he showed some precocity before going to the sidelines. A return to that form makes him a player, but this barn keeping him at Monmouth leading up to his return is a genuine question mark.

R4

Final Score
Boss Henry
Heeere’s Johnny

#5 FINAL SCORE (5/2): Made up a lot of ground at first asking, which is sometimes a difficult thing for 2-year-olds to do. That was supposed to be a turf race. He gets on grass here and also stretches out to two turns, which his pedigree says he should love; #2 BOSS HENRY (9/2): Debuts for Chad Brown, who’s on a real hot streak with 2-year-olds on the turf. His dam was stakes-placed on the lawn, and offspring of Gun Runner can usually run on anything, so he merits respect; #3 HEEERE’S JOHNNY (3-1): Probably lost all chance at the break in his off-the-turf debut, and his pedigree says he wants the green stuff. Given experience and the move to what feels like his desired surface, I’m expecting a step forward at second asking.

R5

Essential Coffee
Memorized
Carmel Coast

#5 ESSENTIAL COFFEE (4-1): Was DQ’d after hitting the wire clear by eight in her debut, then folded after contesting fast fractions in the Debutante. I think you can argue the last-out clunker was a bounce, and that a return to her first-out form would make her a handful; #4 MEMORIZED (3-1): Has reason to be a runner, being a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Zandon, among others. She sold for $900,000 at Keeneland last September, and while the pedigree says she wants longer than this distance, she’s a contender if Brown has her ready to run; #3 CARMEL COAST (5-1): Isn’t just a hunch play from here in Northern California. She’s another with strong bloodlines, and she fired a bullet two works back on July 28th. My one hesitation is that the bottom side of her pedigree hints she may be at her best on turf, not dirt.

R6

Spirit of the Law
Big Brown Delivers
Powered by Coal

#12 SPIRIT OF THE LAW (5/2): Runs for a tag for the first time, and while the far outside post is a problem, he should get an ideal setup. He wants pace in front of him, he should get it, and he feels like one of only a few that’s shown he can pass others late; #6 BIG BROWN DELIVERS (15-1): Merits a long look at a price second off the bench. He didn’t break well in his return, but still salvaged fourth behind a horse that beat winners at next asking. I think he moves forward here, and if he does, he’ll have a shot to light up the tote; #4 POWERED BY COAL (9/2): Took a big step forward last time out, when he led most of the way and got passed late. He seems to have responded since a drop in class two back, and the rider switch to Irad Ortiz Jr. is a big one.

R7

My Two Sophia’s
Valentine Gift
Rodriguez entry

#3 MY TWO SOPHIA’S (2-1): Came flying late last time out and missed by just a neck. Irad hops aboard for a barn he doesn’t ride for much, and the new dimension she showed last time out should help given an abundance of early speed on paper; #9 VALENTINE GIFT (5-1): Comes back to the claiming ranks here, and she didn’t run badly last time out against state-bred allowance foes. She rallied to be fourth that day despite a poor break, and while she hasn’t won in a while, she’s another that figures to benefit from the likely race shape; RODRIGUEZ ENTRY (6-1): I prefer #1A MOONLIT WEEKEND, though #1 DANNEEL has a chance to run well, too. The former was a two-back winner downstate and returns to what’s probably the correct level.

R8

Cut the Cord (MTO)
Conman
Ocala Dream

#8 CONMAN (2-1): Takes a big drop for aggressive connections that have run him against open company for the past two years. At his best, he was a stakes winner at Woodbine, and his last-out effort saw him finish fourth behind a next-out winner in a swiftly-run event; #4 OCALA DREAM (12-1): Returns to what’s clearly his preferred surface and could factor in this one at a price. He returned to this level two back, but both of his last two races have been rained off the turf. Assuming this stays on the lawn, I think we’ll see the best of him here, and that’s pretty good; #1 SLAPINTHEFACE (5-1): Tried open company last time out, and in addition to probably being outclassed, he didn’t benefit from the wide trip he got. He should get a chance to save ground from the rail here, and regular rider Manny Franco is back on.

R9

Governor Sam
Gabaldon
Ancient World

#9 GOVERNOR SAM (1-1): May be the biggest favorite of the day, and for good reason. He comes in off of an excellent score in the Grade 3 Quick Call at this route, a race where he showed he doesn’t necessarily need the lead. I can’t go against him in the Grade 3 Mahony; #8 GABALDON (8-1): Hasn’t run since March, when he did a lot of heavy lifting up front and finished third in the Texas Glitter. He’s been gelded since that race, and there’s a chance he finds himself on the lead going into the turn; #7 ANCIENT WORLD (10-1): Hadn’t run a bad one before his clunker in the Maxfield at Churchill. He tries turf for the first time, but he sports a pretty flashy turf work on July 20th that indicates he may like it. At a minimum, he should be going well late.

R10

Tuscan Gold
Chileno
Pandagate

#1 TUSCAN GOLD (7/2): Was fourth in last year’s Grade 1 Preakness as a 3-year-old before going to the sidelines, but he did not run well in his 2025 debut. However, I think he needed that race, and that he’ll benefit from getting back to two turns in the Sunday nightcap; #7 CHILENO (6-1): Has run second three times this season, and he’s run well at Saratoga in the past. He’s shown he can go two turns effectively, and he’s got the tactical speed to sit an ideal stalking trip; #6 PANDAGATE (4-1): Gets back to the track for the first time since September, and his best is quite good. He’s won three stakes races against New York-breds, but I question if two turns is truly his best game, and this is far from a bad field for the level.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $864.50

Those of us in the pick box on the front page of The Pink Sheet work hard to one-up one another, but underneath all of that is a lot of respect, on both competitive and personal levels. It’s for that reason I’m proud to shout out Liam Durbin’s fundraiser for cancer research.

Recently, Liam biked a 100-mile route in his native Ohio, from Columbus to Kenyon. Over the years, his efforts have helped raise more than $6,000 for cancer research, and this fundraiser is still active for folks to donate to and support. If you want to learn more and donate, click here!

(As a reminder to any Ohioans who may read this, Saturday marks 2,078 days since Ohio State has beaten Michigan in football. Go Blue.)

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Payoffs weren’t great, but we cashed a few tickets. My two early Pick Four singles that I bet to win got the job done, and the Pick Four itself hit, too. In total, $45 in bets returned $140.25.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’m wasting no time, because I think the opener presents a strong value proposition and I’ll spend most of my time there. #5 TRUST FUND seems like the lone closer in a race full of early speed, and I’m playing accordingly. I’ll have a $30 win bet on him, and I’ll also play a skinny early 50-cent Pick Five ticket that goes as follows: 5 with 1,3,7,8 with 1,3,7,8 (not a misprint) with 4 with 1. Finally, I’ll use my back-to-back singles on that Pick Five ticket in a cold $5 double that links #4 WHITE PALOMINO in the fourth with #1 AMUNDSON/#1A LOOMS BOLDLY in the fifth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $43.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Amplitude, Race 12
Longshot: Street View, Race 11

R1

Trust Fund
I’m Wide Awake
Factually Correct

#5 TRUST FUND (7/2): Feels like the only horse in the Saturday lid-lifter that wants to pass others, and he’s found his form in his last two outings. This is a bit of a step up in class, but I think he gets his desired trip and has a big shot at his third win in a row; #4 I’M WIDE AWAKE (9/5): Settled for third after setting a very fast pace going a bit longer last time out. His two-back win at this route was sharp, but I worry about how fast he’ll have to go early on to hit the front with so much other speed signed on; #6 FACTUALLY CORRECT (8-1): Gets back to the optional claiming level and gets to run with Lasix again after a failed stakes try at Finger Lakes. He hasn’t won in a while, but Flavien Prat hops aboard and the two and three-back efforts weren’t bad.

R2

Glint
Rivalry
Just Clarity

#8 GLINT (5/2): Takes a drop in class after fading to finish fourth against $30,000 claimers last month, and the cutback from the chute to a sprint should help him. Irad Ortiz Jr. sees fit to ride, and he could have enough speed to clear the field early from his outside post; #3 RIVALRY (3-1): Cuts back to a sprint second off the claim and adds blinkers, which is a notable move given his desire to be forwardly-placed. He also comes back into restricted claiming company, which could move him up; #7 JUST CLARITY (6-1): Drops from an open claimer into a restricted one and could benefit from the likely race shape. One has to dig a bit to find it, but he could close once upon a time, and that ability could come in handy here.

R3

Trading Trouble
Fancy Lights
My Boston Beauty

#7 TRADING TROUBLE (5/2): Ran very, very well in his debut at a price, when she was second at 12-1 after an eventful trip. She doesn’t need to move forward much to be a formidable favorite here, and if she does that at all, I think she could be very tough; #8 FANCY LIGHTS (4-1): Debuts in a turf sprint for George Weaver, which is reason enough to pay attention. She sold for $80,000 despite a pretty modest pedigree, and broodmare sire The Factor is a very strong turf influence; #1 MY BOSTON BEAUTY (10-1): Had a world of trouble in her debut, but still closed a bit to be fifth that day for a barn whose firsters often need a race to get going. She gets a big jockey switch to Joel Rosario and has every chance to run an improved race at a big price.

R4

Chileno (MTO)
White Palomino
Walley World

#4 WHITE PALOMINO (5/2): Returns after a long layoff of more than a year, and if he’s ready to go, he should dust this bunch. He was beaten just a head in last year’s Grade 1 Belmont Derby, and he’s been training steadily over the Oklahoma track for trainer Chad Brown; #2 WALLEY WORLD (6-1): Has won two of three since going to the Saffie Joseph barn and made up a ton of ground last time out downstate. This race shouldn’t fall apart quite like that one did, but he and jockey Manny Franco should be rolling late; #9 COMMON DEFENSE (6-1): Tries turf for the first time second off the bench and is bred to love it. He’s by Karakontie and out of a Street Cry mare, and these connections tried to get him on the lawn last month before that race was moved to the main track.

R5

Ten Strike entry
Show Time
Forgiving Spirit

TEN STRIKE ENTRY (8/5): Both #1 AMUNDSON and #1A LOOMS BOLDLY could win this, and they make for a powerful 1-2 punch. The former is a 9-year-old gelding looking for his fifth lifetime Saratoga win, while the latter takes a big drop in class for the aggressive Brad Cox barn; #7 SHOW TIME (5-1): Has been off since a wire-to-wire score at Churchill in April and makes his first start for Norm Casse. He figures to be a factor early in his one, and for a six-furlong sprint, there’s not a ton of other early zip signed on; #4 FORGIVING SPIRIT (6-1): Won his local debut here last month and goes first off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. That barn’s been a bit cold at this stand, but this one overcame a poor start last time and earned a pretty big speed figure.

R6

Oscar’s Hope
Sassmaster
Senior Lender

#2 OSCAR’S HOPE (7/2): Gets a tepid nod in a wide-open 2-year-old maiden race with several strong prospects. This one has been working very, very fast for Tom Amoss and boasts back-to-back bullet drills ahead of his unveiling; #8 SASSMASTER (3-1): Draws a cushy outside post, sold for $550,000 at auction, and has a right to run well in his debut. He’s a son of Curlin, out of a mare that’s also produced multiple graded stakes winner Royal Charlotte; #7 SENIOR LENDER (6-1): Fetched $450,000 at Keeneland last year and has a few solid works for Chad Brown. His dam is kin to multiple stakes winner Mundaye Call and 2-year-old stakes winner Bullard, and his second dam is a half to another stakes-winning 2-year-old, Can the Man.

R7

Treaty Obligation (MTO)
Exact Estimate
Depiction

#7 EXACT ESTIMATE (5/2): Runs for a tag, which is a bit curious, but he ran second behind the talented Cugino last time out and has plenty of back form. It also helps his cause that he beat impressive next-out winner Big Everest in that race, too; #6 DEPICTION (3-1): Didn’t do much running when fifth in the Grade 3 Poker, but he gets Lasix back here and that should help. He strikes me as a bit pace-dependent, but if he’s able to get some speed in front of him, he’ll be a factor late; #5 ITSALLCOMINTOGETHA (6-1): Ran third in the Kingston last time out after being a big part of the early pace, and he’ll likely be forward again here, too. He’s run well at he Spa several times, and he could be dangerous if he gets comfortable up top early.

R8

Damon’s Mound
Little Ni
Surveillance

#2 DAMON’S MOUND (2-1): Chased Book ‘Em Danno in the Grade 2 Vanderbilt a few weeks ago and gets some class relief here. He’s a graded stakes winner who should appreciate the shallower waters, even if this event came up pretty salty for the level; #6 LITTLE NI (3-1): Ran pretty well in his 2025 debut last time out, when he was second in his first try since October. He showed a new dimension that day making up some ground late, and he’s a logical candidate to move forward second off the bench; #8 SURVEILLANCE (4-1): Comes back to dirt after chasing Bring Theband Home in the Harvey Pack on turf. He’s clearly a better horse with Lasix, which he gets here, and this 11-time victor is capable of winning this on his best day.

R9

Opulent Restraint
Laurelin
Go Go Boots

#1 OPULENT RESTRAINT (2-1): Sure looks like the lone early speed in the Grade 2 Saratoga Oaks, and I think she’s a logical wire-to-wire candidate. It feels like she’s getting much better with distance and experience, and she may get brave up top and prove tough to catch; #6 LAURELIN (9/5): Has done nothing wrong with four wins in as many starts and ran down my top choice two back. This is, however, a stretchout in distance for her, and it’s not an insignificant one; #3 GO GO BOOTS (7/2): Makes her first U.S. start for new trainer Miguel Clement after five efforts overseas. Her most recent effort at Ascot wasn’t bad, and while she doesn’t have any local works (which is a big question mark), at least we know she should handle this distance.

R10

Far Bridge
Nations Pride
Utah Beach

#6 FAR BRIDGE (9/5): Stretched back out in distance to win the Grade 2 Bowling Green a few weeks ago and will look to take the Grade 1 Sword Dancer for the second straight year. Toss last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf against a world-class field, and you have a horse that hasn’t run a truly bad race in more than a year; #5 NATIONS PRIDE (3-1): Has won big races all over the world, and his best would give him a big shot here. William Buick comes in to ride for Charles Appleby, but I’m wondering if it’s possible we’ve seen the best of him already, and if he’ll need to turn back the clock to beat this bunch; #9 UTAH BEACH (8-1): Won at this distance two and three back and didn’t get a great trip last time out. Jose Ortiz hops aboard, and a return to form would give him a puncher’s chance at a price for a trainer who intends to retire by the end of the year.

R11

Alyeska
Street View
Next On Stage

#3 ALYESKA (7/2): Won her debut in September like a very good horse, then went to the sidelines and changed barns. Her return effort wasn’t bad, as she was third behind next-out Test runner-up Ragtime, and given a few very sharp works, I’m expecting a bigger effort here; #6 STREET VIEW (15-1): Won at this distance last time out and is worth a look at a big price. Draw lines through the efforts on off tracks, which she clearly hates, and her sheet looks far, far better. It wouldn’t shock me if she’s right there; #8 NEXT ON STAGE (9/2): Was second in the race my top pick exits and should be on or near the lead early. She’s a consistent sort, and while it doesn’t seem like she enjoys being in front, her usual effort should be enough to get a piece of this.

R12

Amplitude
Hit the Post (MTO)
Charles J

#2 AMPLITUDE (5/2): Feels like a very probable winner of the finale given the likely race shape. There’s a lot of early speed signed on, and this seems like a softer group than the one he faced last time out coming off a long break. If he’s sharper and gets his desired trip, he’s strictly the one to beat; #10 CHARLES J (5-1): Was third in a similar spot last time out and Irad Ortiz Jr. rides back for a small barn. He’d also benefit from a fast pace, but I’m wondering why blinkers go back on since they didn’t seem effective back in early-2024; #7 FIDELIGHTCAYUT (3-1): Ships in from Monmouth to face New York-breds, and he’s run some big races at this level. It certainly helps that he doesn’t necessarily need the lead. If there’s hesitation here, it’s because his lone recent win came on dirt at Tampa.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $769.25

Matthew DeSantis, who does a ton of fantastic work with NYRA Bets, is a good friend of mine. He’s sharp, his content is insightful, and horse racing’s a better sport with him involved and actively helping to promote it. If you’re not watching his videos or reading his analysis, you should be.

These beliefs, all genuine, serve as a prelude to this statement: If any rain, at all, whatsoever, falls on Saratoga between now and the end of the weekend, it is entirely his fault.

He posted a message on X spotlighting a picture-perfect weather forecast through the weekend, which, to steal a phrase from “The West Wing,” tempts the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing. As any good horseplayer knows, doing this is very, very dangerous, and the weather gods immediately responded with, as WNYT’s Christina Talamo reported, lightning and storms over the nearby Great Sacandaga Lake.

(Love you, buddy.)

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Running second and third as much as I have been is exhausting. I dropped $20.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the first half of the card, where I like two non-favorites quite a bit. I’ll have $15 win bets on #3 BILLIONAIRES ROW in the second and #2 VALENZAN DAY in the fourth, and I’ll single them in a 50-cent early Pick Four starting in the second that goes as follows: 3 with 2,3,4,6,8,9 with 2 with 1,2,7,9,11,12 (don’t forget about the AE’s in the fifth, folks!).

TOTAL WAGERED: $48.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Valenzan Day, Race 4
Longshot: Antietam, Race 10

R1

Max Money
Napoleon Solo
Neigh Baby

#3 MAX MONEY (9/2): Debuted with a decent third last month and has since been working very well for Mike Maker, whose horses tend to need a race or two to get going. I’m expecting significant improvement, and that may be enough to get him the money here; #2 NAPOLEON SOLO (5/2): Debuts for Chad Summers after a series of impressive drills. Summers isn’t known for first-out success, but if you’ve bet on his last 28 debuting runners as of this writing, you’ve made a flat-bet profit; #7 NEIGH BABY (7/2): Makes his debut for Jeremiah Englehart, whose first-out runners can be well-meant. His July 11th work hints that he may have some potential, and his outside post could be a plus.

R2

Tactical Trackstar (MTO)
Billionaires Row
Alexis Zorba

#3 BILLIONAIRES ROW (5/2): Didn’t break well in his local debut, but he still ran well enough to be third that day (beaten just a length). If he’s able to break cleanly here, he could sit an ideal stalking trip, and he doesn’t need to move forward much to be a major player; #6 ALEXIS ZORBA (8/5): Was second in the same race my top pick exits and may be favored, but I have some doubts. He’s 1-for-18 lifetime, with eight seconds. I just don’t think he wants to win, and that makes his likely price an underlay; #2 EPITAPH (8-1): Has shown plenty of early zip and went wire-to-wire at this route last summer for his lone career score to date. I think he could be the controlling speed in here, and that he could lead them a long way at a bit of a price.

R3

Fancy Footwork (MTO)
Bisclavret
Social Scene

#2 BISCLAVRET (6-1): Debuts for George Weaver, who’s enjoyed plenty of success with debuting turfers at this meet to date. She’s a full sister to one 2-year-old stakes winner, Howling Time, and a half-sister to another, Air Recruit; #6 SOCIAL SCENE (5-1): Commanded a hefty sum at auction overseas last fall and has a strong turf pedigree. Her second dam, Lillie Langtry, is the dam of three European heavyweights (Minding, Empress Josephine, and Tuesday); #9 SWEET LITTLE LILA (8-1): Is the daughter of a mare who placed in multiple Grade 1 races going long on the turf. The outside post is a question mark, but she’s bred to go two turns, and this is a barn that’s very sharp with first-time starters.

R4

Valenzan Day
Kantarmaci entry
Tiberius Mercurius

#2 VALENZAN DAY (2-1): Is a one-mile specialist, with five wins in nine starts at this trio. He went wire-to-wire at this route last summer, gets an advantageous post out of the Wilson chute, and attracts Irad Ortiz Jr., who likely had several options; KANTARMACI ENTRY (7/5): On speed figures, both #1 BREW PUB and #1A WINTER’S GHOST make sense. However, they’re a combined 0-for-15 this year and have had plenty of chances at this level. At the likely price, I’m looking elsewhere; #3 TIBERIUS MERCURIUS (6-1): Is another that hasn’t won in a while, but he does add blinkers and has run well at this one-mile distance in the past. Beyond the top two, there just isn’t much depth here. Someone has to run third, and it may as well be this one.

R5

Cristobal (AE)
Diliello (AE)
Truman’s Commander

#12 CRISTOBAL (9/5): Needs two scratches to run but merits plenty of respect if he gets the chance. He was wide throughout in his debut and that almost certainly cost him. A cleaner trip and experience could both move him forward; #11 DILIELLO (2-1): Is one ahead of my top pick on the AE list and is another that’s worth a long look. He was second in the race Cristobal exits and is also a candidate to move forward with a start under his belt; #7 TRUMAN’S COMMANDER (3-1): Debuts for Mark Casse and fetched a respectable $50,000 at auction despite a pretty modest pedigree. The two-back work on July 17th indicates he may have some talent, and the presence of Jose Ortiz may also be a clue.

R6

Escape Hall
Empires King
Jolted

#2 ESCAPE HALL (9/2): Has been working very, very well for George Weaver and looks primed to run a big one in his unveiling. His female family includes second dam Harbor Mist, a stakes winner who threw, among others, 2-year-old stakes winner Crazy Hot. I’m not sure we’ll get the 9/2 morning line, but I sure hope we do; #6 EMPIRES KING (2-1): Ran into next-out stakes winner Ewing in his debut and was a distant second behind that one. This restricted event is a class drop on paper, and it’s certainly possible he moves forward at second asking; #7 JOLTED (6-1): Is by the speedy Instagrand and out of a mare who’s a full sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Zada Belle. The works are solid enough, and the pedigree certainly says she’ll be precocious.

R7

Duration (MTO)
Perretti
Prariedale

#3 PERRETTI (6-1): Hasn’t been out of the barn since November but returns for Phil Antonacci, who knows how to get comebackers ready to go. Furthermore, he looks like the lone speed on the inner turf, which is always dangerous. If he’s ready, he’s a wire-to-wire candidate; #4 PRARIEDALE (6-1): Sees my top pick’s layoff and raises it considerably, having been out of action since October…of 2023. He closed to be fourth in a paceless race that day, and while it’s anyone’s guess if he’ll be ready to go, perhaps it’s telling they’ve stuck with him as long as they have; #8 BLAST FURNACE (4-1): Suffered a tough beat last time out, when he got the wrong end of a photo finish against maiden claimers downstate. This is probably a tougher group, but he more than fits on figures, and it’s worth noting that that effort was his first-ever turf route.

R8

Bernietakescharge (MTO)
Be Your Best
Deep Satin

#1 BE YOUR BEST (9/5): Took advantage of a picture-perfect trip to take the Grade 1 Gamely at Santa Anita for her fourth graded stakes win since November. There’s a fair amount of speed signed on in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa, but she’s shown she doesn’t necessarily need the lead, which could prove very valuable; #9 DEEP SATIN (5-1): Loves this turf course and put it all together to win a division of the De La Rose last time out. This is a class test, to be sure, but she’s shown she can sit back and make up ground, and that’s a decided advantage; #3 OZARA (6-1): Won the other division of the De La Rose and is another that’s shown she can pass others after turning for home. Given that I think this race shape may favor closers, I can’t throw her out.

R9

Storm the Streets
Consider It Done
Uncle Jim

#1 STORM THE STREETS (5/2): Won two in a row before a near-miss at Ellis Park last time out and feels like the one to beat in here. His dirt sprints are, by and large, sharp efforts, and when Irad Ortiz Jr. rides for this barn, he’s usually on live horses; #2 CONSIDER IT DONE (7/2): Drops in class after a clunker last time out, but he won two and three back (including against optional claimers in May at Aqueduct). He may be better in the mud, but it’s also possible Linda Rice has him back at the correct level; #6 UNCLE JIM (4-1): Was a solid winner two back downstate, and it’s possible he detests off tracks. His sheet looks much better with the last-out and three-back clunkers crossed out, and if the track’s dry Friday, we could see a bounce-back performance.

R10

Antietam
Worthy Charge (MTO)
Johny’s Rendezvous

#5 ANTIETAM (9/2): Tries turf for the first time in the Friday nightcap but is bred to absolutely love it. This son of Curlin is a half to European champion Air Force Blue, and if he’s ready to run off the bench, I think he could show he’s wanted the grass all along; #3 JOHNY’S RENDEZVOUS (7/2): Has proven to be a pretty tough horse to ride, but he also looks like the main speed in this two-turn, inner-turf event. As we’ve seen all summer, that’s a good thing, and if he settles down, he could have every chance to lead them a long way; #8 WICKED IMPROBABLE (6-1): Closed at first asking to be beaten less than three lengths in a race that didn’t have much early speed signed on. This barn’s firsters sometimes need a race to get going, and Junior Alvarado stays on for this one’s second lifetime outing.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $789.25

If you’ve been following Florida horse racing, chances are you know about the owners of Gulfstream Park aggressively attempting to decouple racing and slots. An initial attempt featured them attempting to bully horsepeople into going along with the deal by promising them racing into the 2028 calendar year. That thankfully failed, but gambling attorney Daniel Wallach reports that a lawsuit has been filed.

I’m not a lawyer. If you want to read the lawsuit, check out Wallach’s post on X from late Tuesday night. What I do know is this: If Gulfstream is allowed to decouple, it’s the first domino to fall in another big track closing up shop. Nobody who genuinely cares about the sport of horse racing should want this to happen, and we should be actively mobilizing against it. Who’s with me?

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: My exacta ran 2-3 in the third behind a pretty big price, and I dropped $20.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll play a double that keys one favorite and tries to beat another. My $10 ticket starts by singling #1 GOLDEN DEGREE/#1A PROUD FOOT in the third and finishes with #6 ALLURING ANGEL and #8 BREATH AWAY in the fourth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Kavanaugh, Race 1
Longshot: Laurice, Race 7

R1

Kavanaugh
Otto Nipoti
Down the Line

#4 KAVANAUGH (7/5): Looks hard to go against in the Thursday lid-lifter. He takes one of the biggest drops in racing (from maiden special weight to maiden claiming), and while his most recent effort was a total clunker, he’s got back races that probably bury this bunch; #5 OTTO NIPOTI (9/2): Showed some speed in his debut going shorter, and he’s bred to get better with distance and experience. He’ll need to step forward considerably from that effort, but at least there are some indications he may be able to do that; #1 DOWN THE LINE (10-1): May have been compromised by mud and a wide trip last time at Aqueduct, and his race two back at Monmouth wasn’t terrible. If he runs back to that effort, he could get a piece of this at a price.

R2

Tartabull (MTO)
Noble Dynasty
Olivetti

#4 NOBLE DYNASTY (7/2): Has some of the best breeding you’ll see, being by standout UK sire Kingman and out of a stakes-placed mare whose dam was Hall of Famer Royal Delta. He’s been working well ahead of his unveiling, and if he runs to the pedigree, he’ll be tough; #5 OLIVETTI (6-1): Is one of two Chad Brown trainees, and he’s bred to be a good one. He’s a half to multiple graded stakes winner Fort Washington, and the morning line price hits me as a bit of an overlay. Watch the board carefully; #1 OUR MAGICAL MOON (10-1): Comes in off of a big gate drill, and while I’m not sure the pedigree says turf, he’s got a right to be a runner. He sold for $500,000 at auction last year and is kin to Grade 3 winner Dixie Serenade, among others.

R3

Rice entry
Ready for Trouble
Despo’s Dream

RICE ENTRY (4/5): Both #1 GOLDEN DEGREE and #1A PROUD FOOT can win, and assuming both parts of the entry run, they should do so as overwhelming favorites. The former seems like the main speed, while the latter has been running against better for most of her career; #3 READY FOR TROUBLE (9/2): Comes back to the right level second off the claim after running fourth against allowance company at Churchill. Her two and three-back efforts against similar were pretty sharp, and a return to this tier could wake her up; #5 DESPO’S DREAM (8-1): Took advantage of a picture-perfect trip last time out, but to be fair, she’s had a solid year, with three wins and two seconds in 10 starts. I’m not sure she gets an easy lead here, but Prat rides back, and that’s a plus.

R4

Regaled (MTO)
Breath Away
Alluring Angel

#8 BREATH AWAY (5/2): Runs outside of stakes company for the first time since last summer and exits a series of strong efforts at Gulfstream Park. Her lone start here was a win, and I think she’ll benefit from getting back to this level; #6 ALLURING ANGEL (9/2): Won her only prior start with Lasix and gets it again after being beaten less than two lengths in the De La Rose last month. That was her first start since September, so she may very well have needed that effort; #1 VIVA VEUVE (2-1): May go favored off of a big win at Churchill over an impressive next-out winner, but I have some doubts. She’s a late-running type that may need more pace than she’s likely to get here, the rail draw could prove tricky given her running style, and this is a very classy group for the condition.

R5

The Closer
Shadow Surge
Fiscal Drag

#3 THE CLOSER (3-1): Improved at second asking when second downstate despite a wide trip. The slight cutback in distance should help him, and further improvement in his third lifetime start could lead to his first trip to the winner’s circle; #6 SHADOW SURGE (4-1): Has been off over 15 months and returns for a tag, which raises some questions. However, this barn isn’t afraid to get aggressive, and a bullet drill over this course last month hints he may be ready to go; #1 FISCAL DRAG (5/2): Ran twice at Monmouth and both cuts back and drops down. This barn shipping in from Jersey isn’t quite the red flag it used to be, but there’s a lot going on here and I’m not sure I want a short price on him. I’ll take a mild stand against.

R6

Hoops Rivalry
Spirit Doll
Oscar Bound

#10 HOOPS RIVALRY (4-1): Gets a tepid nod in a wide-open 2-year-old event. She just barely qualifies for this condition, having sold for exactly $60,000. She’s got a few very strong works and is kin to graded stakes-placed runner Irish Mischief, among others; #9 SPIRIT DOLL (6-1): Is one of two in here for the Saffie Joseph barn and posted a blazing gate drill a few days ago. I’m wondering why this outfit runs a pair, but this is where Jose Ortiz winds up, and that could be a clue; #7 OSCAR BOUND (5-1): Has been training forwardly for Melanie Giddings, who’s connected a few times at this stand already. The bottom-side pedigree indicates she may want a bit longer, but it certainly seems like there’s talent here.

R7

Flat Out Time (MTO)
Love Cervere
Laurice

#11 LOVE CERVERE (7/2): Is one of only a few closers in the Galway, and that should work to her advantage. She’s reunited with Joel Rosario, who feels like the perfect rider for her, and the faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be; #10 LAURICE (15-1): Is one of several in here trained by George Weaver, and while she’ll be a price, she’s the one I’m most intrigued by. She’s a stalker rather than a “need the lead” horse, and her last-out effort in the Grade 3 Coronation Cup was far from bad; #9 LUNA LOUSKA (6-1): Hasn’t been headed since switching from dirt to synthetic and turf and may very well make the lead again here. The issue is that there’s a lot of early speed to her inside, and I question how much she’ll have left when the field turns for home.

R8

Iron Dome
Aelfgar
Jaa Mode

#6 IRON DOME (7/5): Ran a career-best race to break his maiden last time out and tries winners for the first time. That’s a significant class jump, but that last-out score may have been a breakthrough, and he may not be done moving forward yet; #3 AELFGAR (8-1): Had back-to-back wins at Finger Lakes and didn’t run badly last time out in his local debut. That day’s winner was much the best, but this one was the only other horse in there that did any running; #9 JAA MODE (6-1): Came off the bench to run third in his first start since July last time out. He might’ve needed that race, and I think he’ll improve getting back to a two-turn route of ground. If he runs back to his two-back effort at this route, he’s got a chance.

R9

Fort Nelson (MTO)
Valuation Metric
Insubordination

#7 VALUATION METRIC (9/2): Makes his 2025 debut after being on the shelf since a win in last year’s Awad downstate. He gets Lasix for the first time here, regular rider Flavien Prat is up, and he’ll have every chance if he’s ready to run; #5 INSUBORDINATION (8-1): Stretches out to two turns, which is curious, but he drops down in class and that may be what he needs. He’s tackled some nice horses at higher levels, and he gets Lasix back for the first time since his maiden-breaking score; #1 STATES’ RIGHTS (3-1): Is certainly one of the more talented horses in here and can win on his best day. However, his tendency to find trouble is a concern, and those horses getting rail draws is usually a recipe for more trouble. He could win, but it feels like he’s had plenty of chances at this level.

R10

Alittlebitnaughty
Saipan (AE)
Princess Summer

#5 ALITTLEBITNAUGHTY (4-1): Makes her first start for Linda Rice and gets to what’s probably the right level. She’s had some chances, but those have come against better fields, and it seems like she’s found her friends in the Thursday nightcap; #13 SAIPAN (9/2): Needs a scratch to draw in, but merits a long look if she gets to run. She’s been second twice at this level, and while the post would be a problem, she more than fits on speed figures and would be very logical; #8 PRINCESS SUMMER (5/2): Has taken money twice at this level, but while she was a decent second two back, she was a distant third last time out. The switch to Irad Ortiz Jr. is a big one, and maybe it moves her forward, but I need more of a price than I’m likely to get.