Pink Sheet | Andrew Champagne

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/2/19)

Posted on July 31, 2019 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $977.50

Two things today. First, let’s all extend a hearty Saratoga welcome to Joe and Natalie Nevills, as well as housemates Nicole Russo and Penelope Miller. You’ll know there are hijinks and/or shenanigans afoot if Joe goes flying through the front door of the home they’re renting in a fashion similar to Jazz from “The Fresh Prince of Bel Air.” This usually means a game of Totopoly (the most intense board game ever conceived) has gone horribly wrong for someone. Pump him full of Big Red Spring water and he’ll likely be fine.

Secondly, news broke Thursday that NYRA will join the list of circuits offering a 20-cent jackpot Pick Six wager. I’m no Pick Six player, so maybe I’m not the best person to comment on this, but I could not hate this move more. Instituting a massive change like this mid-meet is a lousy decision, and given the reported mandatory payouts on August 18th and September 2nd (as tweeted by DRF’s David Grening), there won’t be any time to build up a massive pool. This was a short-sighted slap in the face to an audience racing desperately needs to cater to, and this wager will get none of my betting money.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Neither horse I used in the fifth race won, and while longshot of the day Lune Lake did outrun her 16-1 odds, she didn’t hit the board. We dropped $26.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: It’s Hall of Fame Day, so it only makes sense that my action revolves around the Grade 2 race named in its honor. It goes as the seventh, and I’ll key #7 GLOBAL ACCESS in $4 exactas above and below #5 CASA CREED and #8 MOON COLONY. Additionally, I’ll use all three of these horses in $4 doubles starting in the seventh that single #2 TOM’S D’ETAT in the eighth (the Alydar).

TOTAL WAGERED: $28

– – – – –

BEST BET: Concrete Rose, Race 9
LONGSHOT: Appealing Briefs, Race 4

Justice of War
Go Get That
Odie

#8 JUSTICE OF WAR: Drops in for a tag for the first time and looms large as the likely favorite. He was third in his debut here last summer and seems to have caught a weak field for the level; #6 GO GET THAT: Has shown some speed against better horses and goes out for a barn that’s had some success already this meet. His July 19th work here looks solid; #3 ODIE: Didn’t get off to a great start last time out in the slop and is certainly eligible to take a step forward. He was a good second at this level two back at Keeneland.

Cool as You Like
Cover Photo
Promise Me Roses

#3 COOL AS YOU LIKE: Returns to her favorite track and makes her first start for Linda Rice, who has a strong record with new acquisitions. Jose Ortiz hops aboard for the first time, and she’ll likely be prominent early; #1 COVER PHOTO: Ships up from Maryland and drops in for a tag. Her connections thought enough of her to try a stakes race three back, and she’ll be running well late; #6 PROMISE ME ROSES: Is a very tricky read. She was in very good form over the winter at Aqueduct and goes to a barn that’s having a good meet, but she had no excuse last time out against similar-quality opposition.

Light in the Sky
Cake
My Sassy Sarah

#3 LIGHT IN THE SKY: Got pinched at the start in her unveiling earlier in the meet. That race was rained off the turf, and provided she gets to run on the lawn, she has every right to run to a pedigree that says she’s a solid grass horse; #7 CAKE: Hammered for $100,000 last August and debuts for Chad Brown. Her 350 turf Tomlinson figure is one of the highest in this field; #9 MY SASSY SARAH: Debuts for a barn that’s due to get going at the meet. She’s by Summer Front and out of a Street Cry mare, so turf should be no problem, and she’s turned in several strong local drills.

Way Early
Appealing Briefs
Macagone

#8 WAY EARLY: Hasn’t run since December, but raced in several big spots a season ago. He was second in the Grade 2 Penn Mile, and the most recent workouts indicate he may be maturing as a 4-year-old; #7 APPEALING BRIEFS: Has never finished worse than third in four starts at Saratoga and stretches back out to a two-turn trip, one that should play to his strengths. Jose Ortiz gets the call, and we may get a price; #1 MACAGONE: Makes his second start for Jason Servis, and runs here off of a second-place finish at Monmouth. At eight years old, he may be slightly past his peak, but it helps that the winner of his most recent race has come back to win again.

Planet Trailblazer
Chief Know It All
Beyond the Green

#9 PLANET TRAILBLAZER: Has not run poorly in nearly a year and has won five of his last seven starts. He likes Saratoga, and it helps that the last-out winner from his most recent event has since come back to win again; #6 CHIEF KNOW IT ALL: Comes back to the right level after a failed shot for a $32,000 tag. He’s been gelded since his last start, and he beat similar-quality opposition two back at Churchill Downs; #7 BEYOND THE GREEN: Ships in from Finger Lakes for a barn that knows how to win races here. He’s won three of his last four, and we may get a price given the jump in class.

The Green Mo’ster
Soulmate
Bemma’s Boy

#7 THE GREEN MO’STER: Drops in class in his first start for a talented young trainer and looms large in this spot. Anything close to the form he showed in his two-back win at Gulfstream would allow him to tower over these; #2 SOULMATE: Prevailed in a slowly-run race last time out at Gulfstream and faces a better field here. However, Wesley Ward knows how to keep horses on the right track, and he could factor into the exotics at a price; #5 BEMMA’S BOY: Hasn’t won in a while but showed improvement when third in his first start for Mike Maker earlier in the meet. Further improvement gives him a big shot to hit the board.

Global Access
Casa Creed
Moon Colony

#7 GLOBAL ACCESS: Is a consistent sort that generally runs the same race every time out. He’s run well going two turns before and could appreciate the return to such a route; #5 CASA CREED: Was a close-up third in the swiftly-run Manila Stakes at Belmont. He hasn’t won in a while, but the last-out effort could mean he’s maturing in the latter half of his 3-year-old campaign; #8 MOON COLONY: Faded after setting the pace in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby but is 2-for-2 at today’s one-mile distance. However, both of those wins came over wet turf, conditions he may not get in this event.

Tom’s d’Etat
Carlino
American Tattoo

#2 TOM’S D’ETAT: Has been running against far better horses for most of the year and will be very tough to beat. He loves Saratoga, and it’s not hard to see his connections using this as a springboard to bigger and better things; #6 CARLINO: Won at this route last year and cuts back after a sixth-place finish in the Grade 2 Suburban at Belmont. There’s some speed signed on here, and that could set things up for this one’s late kick; #5 AMERICAN TATTOO: Bounced back from a rough American debut with a win at Belmont in June. He was a Group 1 winner in his native Argentina and could be rediscovering that form.

Concrete Rose
Olendon
Happen

#5 CONCRETE ROSE: Has emerged as one of the best 3-year-old fillies in the country and seems very tough in the first-ever Saratoga Oaks. The short field should ensure a clean trip, and it would take significant regression on her part for anyone else to win this; #1 OLENDON: Goes to the Chad Brown barn and gets Lasix for the first time. She was bet in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks and was second in a Group 1 at Longchamp two back; #2 HAPPEN: Is one of two invaders shipping from Europe for Aidan O’Brien. She won a Group 3 two back at The Curragh and is another that figures to benefit from first-time Lasix.

R10

Recess
Mrs. Orb
Farcical

#6 RECESS: Was a close-up fourth in her first start for a tag in June. She’s run well going two turns, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., rides back for trainer Todd Pletcher; #7 MRS. ORB: Has had many chances, but came off the bench running when second at this level downstate. Improvement second off the layoff is logical, especially given this barn’s stats with similar runners; #11 FARCICAL: Ran third against straight maidens a few weeks ago at Delaware and is a contender if she draws in off the AE list. Castellano is listed to ride, and she could be running well late.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/1/19)

Posted on July 30, 2019 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,003.50

Some of my favorite days in the racing business came leading up to the 2016 Breeders’ Cup. I was on-site at Santa Anita handling social media for TVG, and even though that often meant I was rolling into the parking lot at about 5 a.m., I loved every second of it. This was largely due to the people who were there with me (ask me about when a private clocker went off on Neil Drysdale; that’s a great story for another time and place).

The most respected member of that group, without question, was Richard Hazelton, who was there with his son Scott (the longtime HRTV and TVG reporter). It was a blast watching horses work while picking the brain of someone who won nearly 5,000 races over the course of a long career as a trainer.

Richard Hazelton passed away Tuesday. He was 88 years old, and there’s no question he lived a full life. He was a credit to the sport, and the racing world is a lesser place without him in it. My sympathies go out to Scott, the entire Hazelton family, and to everyone who had the pleasure of spending some time with Richard over the years.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Wednesday was the best day of the season for me in this section. We hit the eighth race exacta for $3, and the double connecting the seventh and eighth races for $4. In total, our $30 investment returned $253.50 and got us back in black for the meet.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to try to extract value from my best bet of the day with $10 doubles that start in the fifth. I’ll use #3 LUNE LAKE (my longshot of the day) and #7 GALADRIEL’S LIGHT to start, and I’ll finish by singling #3 GRAY NILE in the sixth. Additionally, because she’ll likely be a crazy price, I’ll put $2 across the board on Lune Lake as well.

TOTAL WAGERED: $26

– – – – –

BEST BET: Gray Nile, Race 6
LONGSHOT: Lune Lake, Race 5

Summer Sangria
Dan the Man Can
Smite

#9 SUMMER SANGRIA: Debuts for Wesley Ward and seems to loom large in this restricted maiden event. She’s by Maclean’s Music and out of an Into Mischief mare, so she has every right to be precocious; #10 DAN THE MAN CAN: Showed speed when third in his debut earlier in the meet. The post position is a problem, but any improvement from his debut would make him formidable; #7 SMITE: Has worked steadily and debuts for a barn that must be respected with firsters on turf. Luis Saez has had a strong meet to this point as well.

Lady’s Island
Repole entry
No Deal

#4 LADY’S ISLAND: Has won five of six starts this season and ships up from Gulfstream for new trainer Danny Gargan. She seems to be the main speed here, and if she gets loose, look out; REPOLE ENTRY: I prefer #1A ARCHUMYBABY, who misfired last time out but has solid back form. She’s a nine-time winner that draws a cushy outside post; #2 NO DEAL: Was second in a swiftly-run optional claiming event downstate and has shown a strong closing kick in the past. If someone goes with my top pick early, she could stand to benefit at a nice price.

Gullo entry
Pletcher entry
Vaya Con Dios

GULLO ENTRY: I prefer #1 REJECTED AGAIN, who ran well when second beaten less than two lengths in his debut. The blinkers go on, and he could take a step forward at second asking; PLETCHER ENTRY: I prefer #2B MICROSCOPE, who needs a scratch to draw in. He’s got some solid works at Monmouth, and this barn is too good to be hitting at just an 11% clip; #3 VAYA CON DIOS: Flashed some speed against straight maidens earlier in the meet before fading to sixth. This seems like a softer group, and he may have needed that initial outing.

Memories Eternal
Molly’s Nighthawk
Ideational

#7 MEMORIES ETERNAL: Comes back to the right level after two failed tries against straight maidens. Her race against maiden claimers three back wasn’t bad, and she has a running style that hints she’ll like two turns; #9 MOLLY’S NIGHTHAWK: Has been competitive in three turf starts at this level. She’s found some trouble at the start in each of her last two, and she’ll be a contender with a clean break here; #1 IDEATIONAL: Burned money when 2-1 in her debut back in November and has not been seen since. She could certainly win, but the workouts appear slow and she almost certainly will not be a square price at the windows.

Galadrial’s Light
Lune Lake
Shanghai Bonnie

#7 GALADRIAL’S LIGHT: Cuts back to a sprint after tiring a bit going a mile downstate. Her win going seven furlongs two back was quite good, and she seems to have caught a weak group in her return to shorter distances; #3 LUNE LAKE: Almost certainly needed her last race, which came nearly 10 months after an outing where something almost certainly went wrong. Toss those two, and you’re left with a horse that’s run well at this route and will likely be a big price; #9 SHANGHAI BONNIE: Certainly seems like the main speed in here and gets a strong “speed rider” in Carmouche. She’ll almost certainly make the lead; the question is, can she last when the real running starts?

Gray Nile
Curlin’s Knight
Inclunation

#3 GRAY NILE: Takes a massive class drop and returns to the site of his lone win to date. These waters are far more shallow than the ones he’s been swimming in, and anything close to last year’s winning effort would make him very tough; #6 CURLIN’S KNIGHT: Has been competitive in three Maryland starts and comes north for this event. Jose Ortiz gets the mount, and he’s shown he can get a two-turn route of ground; #5 INCLUNATION: Graduated last time out and was claimed by an outfit that hits at a strong 24% clip with new acquisitions. He’s hit the board in six of nine career starts, but this is his first outing going two turns on dirt.

Passporttovictory (MTO)
Lovely La La
Broken Border

#6 LOVELY LA LA: Was a beaten favorite last time out, but she ran like she wants two turns. She gets that route here, and she also may get a favorable setup on or near a moderate early pace; #3 BROKEN BORDER: Won for the first time since October of 2017 last time out and looms large for a barn on a real hot streak. However, her one-turn efforts seem stronger than her two-turn races, which is worth noting; #10 VIP NATION: Merits a look underneath at a price. She gets a big rider switch to Castellano and has run her best races around two turns, including a win three back at Aqueduct. DIRT SELECTIONS: PASSPORTTOVICTORY, MAIDEN BEAUTY, CARTWHEEL.

Free Kitty (MTO)
My Sister Nat
Kumin entry

#5 MY SISTER NAT: Was the victim of a horrible race shape in her American debut, when she rated well behind a slow early pace and still rallied for third. She should be in better form here, and if the horse that won a Group 3 in France last year shows up, she’ll be tough; KUMIN ENTRY: I prefer #1 MIGHTY SCARLETT, who has flashed talent at times and won at this route last year. #1A EMPRESSOFTHENILE, though, does have a win here as well and may benefit from class relief; #2 CALL ME KAYLA: Has won two in a row and stretches out for Mike Maker. This is certainly a class test, but she may get a chance to dictate terms early on. DIRT SELECTIONS: FREE KITTY, TANYA’S GEM, KUMIN ENTRY.

Marconi
Rocketry
Curlin Road

#1 MARCONI: Found the waters a bit too deep in the Grade 2 Suburban, but seems to get a much more agreeable spot here. He wants as much ground as possible and may be alone on the front end; #8 ROCKETRY: Has made a habit out of chasing Marconi and gets a bit more ground than he’s previously had in this race. He won a Grade 2 at this distance last year, but will there be enough pace to set up for him here?; #4 CURLIN ROAD: Stretches out in distance, but did run pretty well back in 2017 going long on dirt. He won a Grade 3 that year before chasing Collected, Arrogate, and Accelerate in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar. Perhaps his best days are behind him, but he may be in a good spot to pick up a check at a price.

R10

Quiet Out East (MTO)
Worth a Shot
Jimmy Jazz

#12 WORTH A SHOT: Is one of a few contenders on the AE list that needs some luck to run here. His turf debut off of a long layoff was sharp, and his pedigree says he’ll embrace two turns; #11 JIMMY JAZZ: Was beaten a neck last time out downstate and has run well in both of his 2019 outings. Further progression would make him tough should he draw in; #6 ZECHARIAH: Could take a big step forward in his first start as a gelding. His last start came off of a very long layoff, and he did display some form when a close-up third going a mile last spring at Belmont. DIRT SELECTIONS: QUIET OUT EAST, RISP, MAKE MOTIME.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/31/19)

Posted on July 29, 2019 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $780

I live in Northern California, about 90 miles north of the small city of Gilroy. As you likely already know, the city’s annual garlic festival was rocked by a shooting Sunday afternoon. I was nowhere close to the festivities, but the tragic events have shaken the millions of Bay Area residents that knew someone who was there (or could have been there).

I won’t go political on you here. That’s not what this section is designed for (honestly, even days later, I’m still struggling to understand why this happened, so I don’t know what I’d write in that vein even if I tried). Having said that, keep the city of Gilroy, and its residents, in your thoughts. The garlic festival is their Saratoga, an area’s cultural touchstone that brings people together in a unique atmosphere. Maybe that’s part of why it’s hit me so hard.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: My Pick Four ticket tried to beat Fooch, who came again to win the third. We dropped $24.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the eighth race, a fascinating turf sprint that does not figure to have a short-priced favorite. I’ll box #3 SHORT POUR, #6 THEATERINTHEROUND, and #10 AILISH in $3 exactas, and I’ll use all three in $4 doubles that start with #2 MASCHA (my best bet of the day) in the seventh.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

– – – – –

BEST BET: Mascha, Race 7
LONGSHOT: Downstream, Race 10

Joy of Treasure
Seaside Dancer
Keota

#4 JOY OF TREASURE: Came flying late to be beaten a neck against similar-quality foes at Churchill Downs. There’s a lot of early speed signed on here, and that could set things up for her; #8 SEASIDE DANCER: Has won four races in a row since April and makes her East Coast debut for a sharp barn. She figures to have company up front, but it’s safe to say she’s in career-best form; #7 KEOTA: Was claimed by Jason Servis after a wire-to-wire win at Belmont in May. She had a perfect trip that day and beat weaker foes, but anything that goes to this barn must be respected.

She’s Not Bluffing
Movie Score
Zandora

#8 SHE’S NOT BLUFFING: Was a solid second against similar earlier in the meet and was claimed out of that race by Gary Gullo, who knows how to win with new acquisitions. The outside post is a plus, and Saez rode her to a victory two back at Belmont; #5 MOVIE SCORE: Takes a drop in class to run against non-winners of two after finishing third against straight $25,000 claimers earlier this month. She hasn’t won in a while, but Rosario rides back and she may appreciate the shallower waters; #1 ZANDORA: Showed speed against better last time out and comes back to dirt for Brad Cox. Her lone win to date came on dirt, but this may be a bit short for her.

Risky Mischief
Aubrey Tate
Sister Beauty

#1 RISKY MISCHIEF: Fetched $350,000 at auction last summer and has worked well for a trainer that can get horses ready to go right away. This isn’t an easy spot, but she seems prepared for her debut; #4 AUBREY TATE: Was bet ahead of her planned debut, but was scratched at the gate. Offspring of Bayern look like runners, and her work tab appears pretty sharp; #7 SISTER BEAUTY: Warrants a look in exotics at a price. This barn’s horses often need a race to get going, but she’s worked well at Belmont and attracts Rosario.

Newly Minted (MTO)
Kid Is Frosty
Subsidiary

#5 KID IS FROSTY: Took to turf very well against many of these last time out, when she prevailed by a neck at Belmont. Two turns is an unknown, but she’s out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare, which hints that she’ll like the route; #4 SUBSIDIARY: Tries New York-breds for the first time and has run some strong races in the past. She’ll likely be on or near the pace, which doesn’t figure to be fast; #7 NIKO’S DREAM: Was beaten a neck by my top selection last time out and has never run a poor race against state-breds. She’ll likely be running well late, but I’m not sure if the front-runners will be backing up. DIRT SELECTIONS: NEWLY MINTED, SUBSIDIARY, KID IS FROSTY.

Morality Clause
Kit Kat Katie
Girlntheyellowtaxi

#9 MORALITY CLAUSE: Has hit the board twice in two career starts and was second last time out at Belmont. The post position is an obstacle, but the experience edge she possesses is notable; #8 KIT KAT KATIE: Was a victim of horrible racing luck last time out when she was caught outside a horse that bolted. Her debut was good, and she’s a contender if she runs back to it; #4 GIRLNTHEYELLOWTAXI: Seems the best-meant of the two Wesley Ward trainees in this race. She’s worked well on dirt at Keeneland, although I question if this event is shorter than she wants to go given her pedigree.

Slam Dunk
Tulanian
Figure of Speech

#4 SLAM DUNK: Fetched $450,000 at auction and has worked very well leading up to her unveiling. These barn’s horses sometimes need a race, but she’s worked like a good one and gets a tepid nod in a wide-open event full of first-time starters; #2 TULANIAN: Has also been working very well for a capable barn and looms large as one of the likely favorites. She hammered for $120,000 last September and could be ready to run; #6 FIGURE OF SPEECH: Debuts for Chad Brown and has worked like a runner. She’s by Into Mischief and out of an Elusive Quality mare, which gives her every right to be precocious.

Mascha
Stay Fond (MTO)
Altea

#2 MASCHA: Makes her American debut for Chad Brown and showed plenty of potential overseas. She was second in a Group 3 last summer, and that race was won by multiple graded stakes winner Homerique; #8 ALTEA: Hasn’t won since 2017, but tackled some tough fields last year and gets some class relief here. Among other efforts, she was second in the Grade 3 Lake George over this turf course; #1 ENGLISH SOUL: Ran a solid second in her seasonal debut last month at Belmont and could improve second off the bench. This isn’t an easy spot, but she won two stakes races last summer and could be improving. DIRT SELECTIONS: STAY FOND, ENGLISH SOUL, SILVER SHAKER.

Ailish
Theaterintheround
Short Pour

#10 AILISH: Rallied to top starter allowance foes last time out and is back in with state-breds here. She won at this route last year and should get plenty of pace to run at; #6 THEATERINTHEROUND: Wired a field of claimers going longer last time out, but her game may very well be to sit off the pace. She’s won three of seven and will almost certainly be a square price; #3 SHORT POUR: Almost certainly needed her last start, which doubled as her seasonal debut. Her turf sprint efforts are solid, and if she can rediscover her 2018 form, she could be rolling late beneath Jose Ortiz.

Special Relativity
Talk Veuve to Me
Mr. Al’s Gal

#1 SPECIAL RELATIVITY: Has never lost at Saratoga and sprang a 7-1 upset over her primary rival in this spot last time out. The rail draw may not be ideal, but she overcame it last time out and could be sitting on another big effort; #2 TALK VEUVE TO ME: Came up short when beaten here earlier in the meet, but gets wheeled back pretty quickly for this event. Perhaps mud was her undoing last time, so betting her back isn’t the worst idea in the world; #4 MR. AL’S GAL: Has won half of her 22 career starts and is 3-for-3 at the seven-furlong distance she gets here. This is certainly a class test, but she merits a look in the exotics.

R10

To a Friend
Downstream
Morelikelythannot

#8 TO A FRIEND: Drops in class after showing speed against straight maidens last time out. She ran pretty well in her debut and may appreciate the class relief in a puzzling finale; #7 DOWNSTREAM: Is another logical part of the early pace, and a horse that could improve second off the bench. John Velazquez hops aboard, and she may be well-meant at a price; #4 MORELIKELYTHANNOT: Is logical based on the class drop and powerhouse connections. However, she’s had plenty of chances, and some of Brown’s droppers this meet have misfired at short odds, so I can’t trust her too much.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/28/19)

Posted on July 26, 2019 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $804

The best horse in training doesn’t reside at Saratoga, or Del Mar, or even in North America. She’s in Europe, in the care of John Gosden, and she’ll likely attempt a second straight assault on some of America’s best horses this fall.

I’m referring, of course, to Enable, who turned back all comers in the Group 1 King George Saturday at Ascot. She’s won all but one of her 13 career starts, earned two straight victories in the Arc de Triomphe, and got her picture taken following last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf.

Juddmonte had another superstar in Europe earlier this decade. That was the undefeated Frankel, who was dazzling in romps over all comers during his sensational career. However, given Enable’s track record, her ability to go a longer distance of ground, and her win in the U.S., I think any comparison between the two would be incredibly fair.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Ya Primo ran well in the Bowling Green, but could only manage second. Still, thanks to the presence of a $10 place bet, we only wound up dropping a dollar.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to focus on the early Pick Four, which I think can be played pretty cheaply and hit multiple times. My $1 ticket, which starts in the second race, reads as follows: 2,7,8 with 2,6 with 5,6 with 4,10. I’m against #3 FOOCH in the third, and if a non-favorite wins that race, payoff potential goes up significantly.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24

– – – – –

BEST BET: Runningwscissors, Race 4
LONGSHOT: Pendolino, Race 8

Cleon Jones
Brian’s Last Song
Stanhope

#4 CLEON JONES: Was one-paced when favored in his debut, but comes in off of a very sharp local drill and may be worth another shot. Improvement is logical at second asking for the colt named for the former Mets outfielder; #7 BRIAN’S LAST SONG: Hammered for $180,000 here last summer and has been working steadily for trainer Todd Pletcher. He looks well-meant, but it’s curious that first-call rider John Velazquez doesn’t have the mount; #3 STANHOPE: Sold for $150,000 as a yearling and boasts several strong moves ahead of his unveiling. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because this barn’s horses often need a race or two to get going.

Laser Loop
Air On Fire
Desert Lights

#8 LASER LOOP: Was claimed by an astute barn last time out and drops way down in class for this event. He should relish the shallower waters, and it’s encouraging that Saez hops aboard; #2 AIR ON FIRE: Splashed his way to a runaway win last month at Belmont and takes a step up in class here. He seems to be in strong form, and he’ll be particularly dangerous if the track comes up wet; #7 DESERT LIGHTS: Has never finished worse than third in five tries at this distance and merits respect for a solid barn. He could sit a nice stalking trip and seems like a must-use in exotics.

Tenure
One Last Buck
Fooch

#6 TENURE: Graduated with ease last time out at Monmouth and tries winners for the first time. He gets the benefit of a short field, and while he’s got plenty of speed, it helps that he doesn’t seem to need the lead in order to run well; #2 OUR LAST BUCK: Comes back to turf in his first start since February and merits respect despite the layoff. His lone poor effort came in the mud at Aqueduct, and Lezcano opts to ride him back for Weaver; #3 FOOCH: Has burned plenty of money when favored in his last three starts at this level, and he figures to take action again here. He may be the main speed, but he seems tough to trust at his likely price.

Runningwscissors
Daddy Knows
Bustin Hoffman

#5 RUNNINGWSCISSORS: Makes his first start for trainer Tom Amoss and looms large in this event. His lone start at this distance was an impressive win at Santa Anita, and he exits a pair of second-place efforts against stakes foes at Emerald; #6 DADDY KNOWS: Won earlier in the meet and tries winners for the first time here. He ran well twice around one turn at Belmont, and this barn tends to keep horses on the right track; #3 BUSTIN HOFFMAN: Could hit the board at a price. His record looks miles better if you toss the two Aqueduct efforts, and he may take a step forward second off the bench.

Sport
Mo Gee
Quality Choice

#4 SPORT: Was pulled up last time out in an off-the-turf event and returns to his preferred surface here. He won impressively here last summer and should be rolling late; #10 MO GEE: Will have to overcome a tough outside draw, but he drops back to the right level after a failed shot for a $50,000 tag last time out. He’s run well going two turns before and could be tough if Saez can negotiate a trip; #7 QUALITY CHOICE: Drops back in for a tag after a rough trip against starter allowance foes earlier in the meet. He seems to find trouble with alarming frequency, but he would be a contender with smooth sailing.

Turco Bravo
Zulu
American Lincoln

#6 TURCO BRAVO: Has hit the board in every start since late-May of last year and stretches back out to two turns, which seems to be his preferred trip. He’s hit the board in five of seven local starts and could sit a great stalking trip; #5 ZULU: Drops in class for a sharp barn that must always be respected. He’s got tons of back class and would be scary if he found his old form; #1 AMERICAN LINCOLN: Has run well at this level and merits a look at a price. He’s got enough speed to secure a strong early position along the rail, and his third-place finish earlier in the meet was fine.

Confessing
New and Improved
Magical Time

#1 CONFESSING: Has an experience edge on many of these and was an OK third in her turf debut at Churchill. Her pedigree says she’ll get better as she gets older, and progression would seem to make her the one to beat; #6 NEW AND IMPROVED: Debuts for Chad Brown and boasts a strong pedigree. She’s by Cairo Prince, and has a female family that includes second dam Tout Charmant, a Grade 1 winner going long on turf; #5 MAGICAL TIME: Is another daughter of Cairo Prince making her debut in this spot. Her dam is a half-sister to champion Halfbridled, as well as a full sister to the dam of Grade 2-placed filly Fully Living (who was precocious).

Amos
Blame It On Mom
Pendolino

#7 AMOS: Seems like the main speed in a rare sprint that doesn’t have much of that signed on. She’s improved with every start and may be tough to run down if she gets comfortable up front; #8 BLAME IT ON MOM: Has run second in both of her prior starts, but could be sitting on a bigger effort second off of a long layoff. She’s worked well here, and Rosario rides back; #2 PENDOLINO: Comes in off of a career-best effort, one where she was gaining on the winner with every jump late in the race. If they go faster than expected early on, she could be the main beneficiary.

End Play
Fixed Point
So Conflated

#4 END PLAY: Makes his first start for Jason Servis and would benefit from the likely race shape. He’s a closer in a race with lots of speed around him, and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., is a plus; #2 FIXED POINT: Made my meet last summer when he wired a field at this route to finish off an $820 Pick Four I gave out in the bankroll section. Personal sentiments aside, though, he seems like the main speed, enjoys this route, and has run up against some tough company this year; #3 SO CONFLATED: Seems like this race’s wild card. He hasn’t run in more than a year, but his running lines feature some very fast horses and his turf sprint efforts at Santa Anita back in 2018 were pretty good.

R10

Dyna Passer
Giant Zinger
Night of England

#3 DYNA PASSER: Was sent away at odds of 43-1 in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks, but she actually didn’t run badly when fifth behind the very talented Concrete Rose. She’s won at this distance before and could still be improving; #9 GIANT ZINGER: Was third in a strangely-run race on opening day and possesses lots of back class. She ran in three straight graded stakes races before that and figures to be up close early on here; #7 NIGHT OF ENGLAND: Will likely be favored, but I think she’s beatable. She comes off a long layoff and likely won’t be alone on the front end. If there’s a time to try to beat her, I think it’s here.

R11

Nitrous
Honest Mischief
Shancelot

#6 NITROUS: Was flying late when second in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens and seems to have found his niche as a one-run, one-turn closer. He’ll almost certainly get a fast pace to run at here, and if one develops, he may be the one they have to hold off late; #5 HONEST MISCHIEF: Was up fairly close to the scorching-hot pace in the Woody Stephens but was beaten just three lengths that day. His win two back was excellent, and he may get first run on the leaders turning for home; #12 SHANCELOT: May very well simply be a freak. He’s run two very fast races and may wind up favored, but there’s a lot of early speed to go with him early, and I can’t trust him at his likely price.

R12

Abby Normal
Fusi
Deja Raconte

#4 ABBY NORMAL: Comes back to the turf and gets a tepid nod in a wide-open finale. She’s closed well in her races on firm turf, and this turf course has played kind to that style this meet; #7 FUSI: Ran well in two starts prior to being claimed by Brad Cox, who’s one of the best in the game with new acquisitions. Joel Rosario hops aboard, and she’s another that could be rolling late; #5 DEJA RACONTE: Comes in off of two strong workouts and may not have to be much to pick up a check here. This barn is off to a very good start at the meet and knows how to win with a firster at this level.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/27/19)

Posted on July 25, 2019 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $805

Over the past few years, I’ve wondered aloud why the Curlin Stakes is carded for the same week as the Jim Dandy. Every year, without fail, an ungraded, $100,000 race takes one or two horses that may have been contenders in Saratoga’s main prep for the Travers. Simply put, it doesn’t make any sense to me.

Here’s the idea I seem to pitch annually: Move the Curlin to Travers Day. I’d rather lose a few 30-1 shots from that race than lose 8-1 shots from the Jim Dandy. This would give the Curlin a similar purpose to that of the Easy Goer, which is run on the Belmont Stakes undercard. It would be a far better fit on the calendar in that spot, and I sincerely hope rational logic prevails sooner rather than later.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Doubles were rendered null and void when the second race was moved from turf to dirt.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ve never been a real believer in this year’s bunch of American turf horses (aside from Bricks and Mortar). With that in mind, I’ll put some money behind Chilean invader #3 YA PRIMO in race 10, the Grade 2 Bowling Green. I’ll put $10 on him to win and place, and I’ll also play $5 doubles singling him that start in the ninth (the Grade 1 A.G. Vanderbilt) with #1 MITOLE and #4 FIRENZE FIRE.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

– – – – –

BEST BET: Grandview entry, Race 4
LONGSHOT: Ya Primo, Race 10

Teachable Moment
Wild Weekend
Blacktop Legend

#3 TEACHABLE MOMENT: Takes a big drop for formidable connections in just his second start of the season. A return to his 2018 form would almost certainly be good enough to beat these; #8 WILD WEEKEND: Debuts for Joe Sharp and sports several solid works ahead of his unveiling. This barn has had success with firsters in maiden claimers, and he may be a square price; #6 BLACKTOP LEGEND: Cuts back in distance after tiring a bit going a mile downstate. His lone turf sprint to date was OK, and Rosario riding back is a plus.

Rapido Gatta
Doll Collection
Quasar

#1 RAPIDO GATTA: Raced very wide when third last time out at Belmont. The rail draw, while not ideal, should ensure she covers less ground, and she seems to have enough early zip to establish position; #3 DOLL COLLECTION: Regally-bred daughter of Tapit and star sprinter Groupie Doll cuts back in distance after finishing second going a mile at Churchill. The blinkers seem to have helped, and she may be on the improve; #7 QUASAR: Comes back to dirt after a failed experiment on turf last time out and also adds blinkers. Her races two and three back were fine, and the recent clunker could mean a solid price.

Flying P entry (MTO)
Mission Command
Spectrolite

#5 MISSION COMMAND: Clearly prefers the grass and relished a return to the lawn last month at Belmont. That race came at this level, and while this came up as a pretty salty race for the level, his best would make him a contender at a price; #8 SPECTROLITE: Drops in class for this event and certainly seems like the main speed in here. His lone start at this route was a win in a 2017 starter allowance, and he’s hit the board in 11 of 13 career outings; #6 SCOUT’S HONOR: Found himself on the lead last time out, and that’s not his game. The 10-year-old veteran is best when stalking the pace, and he may get that trip here.

Grandview entry
Kowalski
Complexifier

GRANDVIEW ENTRY: Both #1 SHOPLIFTED and #1A SOVIET can win this, and it wouldn’t be a shock if the two colts ran 1-2. I prefer the former, who fetched $800,000 earlier this year at auction and boasts a very strong gate drill on July 14th; #5 KOWALSKI: Ran pretty well when third in his debut, and this barn doesn’t usually have firsters ready to roll. His pedigree says he’ll get better with more experience; #7 COMPLEXIFIER: Will likely be a big price, as this barn’s horses usually need a race or two to get going. However, his workouts are sharp, and I think he has a big shot to outrun his odds.

Control Group (MTO)
Emaraaty
Keep Quiet

#7 EMARAATY: Makes his first start in more than a year after coming over from Europe, where he ran against some of the best horses on the continent. His running lines are dotted with names like Expert Eye, U S Navy Flag, and Mendelssohn, and if he’s ready, he likely wins; #9 KEEP QUIET: Loves Saratoga and has run well in all four of his starts this season. This will be his first start for the Steve Asmussen barn, and he should be running well late; #2 FRONTIER MARKET: Won two in a row late last year before heading to the sidelines and merits respect for the Brown barn. If his stablemate isn’t 100%, he has a big shot.

More Mischief
Makin’ Out
Flashpackinbarbie

#9 MORE MISCHIEF: Was second in her return to the races back in May and flashed talent as a 2-year-old. Her recent local drills look strong, and she may be able to rate off of what figures to be a fast early pace; #1 MAKIN’ OUT: Romped here last year, but hasn’t been seen in the afternoon since September. She’s worked well of late and may be ready to run; #5 FLASHPACKINBARBIE: Waltzed home by more than eight lengths in her debut at Aqueduct and earned a strong 77 Beyer Speed Figure. She’s been freshened up since then and may be ready to take a step forward at second asking.

Economic Policy
Blanket of Roses
Are You Kitten Me

#5 ECONOMIC POLICY: Fetched $210,000 at auction in 2017 and is a half-brother to two winners. He’s bred to love two turns on turf and gets my nod in a tricky 2-year-old race; #2 BLANKET OF ROSES: Completes a strong 1-2 punch for Chad Brown and is another that should like this journey. His dam is a full sister to Grade 3 winner Derby Kitten, and the presence of Javier Castellano doesn’t hurt; #6 ARE YOU KITTEN ME: Isn’t necessarily bred to be precocious, but he’s been working well for a very capable outfit and attracts Jose Ortiz. He’s cross-entered in a race at Ellis Park, but if he runs here, I think he’s a contender.

Fortune’s Fool
Chateau
Overdeliver

#5 FORTUNE’S FOOL: Dueled through fast fractions last time out before being reeled in by a talented 3-year-old, and this seems like a weaker spot. Castellano rides back, and a repeat effort should be enough to get the job done; #4 CHATEAU: Reeled off three wins in a row not long ago and figures to be on or near the lead early on. He’d likely prefer a wet track, but his fast-track form is still fine; #9 OVERDELIVER: Has a record that looks far better if you toss the Grade 2 Wood Memorial. He cuts back in distance and draws favorably here, but this seems a hair shorter than he wants to go.

Mitole
Firenze Fire
Imperial Hint

#1 MITOLE: May be the best older male in training right now and looms large in the Grade 1 A.G. Vanderbilt. The rail draw isn’t ideal, and there’s other early speed signed on, but anything close to his best would make him a formidable foe; #4 FIRENZE FIRE: Was fifth behind Mitole in the Grade 1 Met Mile, but shortens up and may get plenty of pace to run at. That convergence of factors may make him a contender at a square price; #3 IMPERIAL HINT: Looks to defend his title in this race, but may have lost a step from his 2018 form. He makes his first start since a third-place finish in Dubai here, and he’ll need to have his running shoes on.

R10

Ya Primo
Channel Maker
Arklow

#3 YA PRIMO: Makes his American debut for Chad Brown after establishing himself as one of the top horses in his native Chile. This doesn’t seem like a strong race for the level, and foreign invaders getting Lasix for the first time often take big steps forward; #5 CHANNEL MAKER: Ran fourth behind Bricks and Mortar, America’s top older male on turf, in the Grade 1 Manhattan and returns to defend his title in the Bowling Green. He likes this turf course, and there may be enough pace signed on to set up for him; #1 ARKLOW: Is a consistent sort that generally runs the same race every time out. He was a neck behind Channel Maker in the Man o’ War and is another that would benefit from a fast pace.

R11

War of Will
Tacitus
Global Campaign

#6 WAR OF WILL: Ran like a tired horse in the Belmont, which was his sixth race in less than five months. He’s been freshened up for this event and could sit an ideal stalking trip, which would allow him to channel the form he showed winning the Preakness; #5 TACITUS: Was a good second in the Belmont and has won at this distance and two-turn route configuration before. He may want more early speed, and this isn’t the goal, but if he’s ready to run, he’ll be tough; #4 GLOBAL CAMPAIGN: Wired the field in the Grade 2 Peter Pan, which included eventual Belmont winner Sir Winston. He’s certainly got talent; the question is, does he want two turns?

R12

Surge Pricing
My Macho
Letterman

#5 SURGE PRICING: Won his debut and was fourth against winners last time out at Belmont. He adds blinkers and takes a big drop in class back to the claiming ranks, and he looms large in the Saturday finale; #4 MY MACHO: Raced wide last time out at Laurel and is another dropping in for a tag. This is his second start off the bench, and he’s won going two turns on turf before; #12 LETTERMAN: Faded to eighth in his first start against winners last time out, but won impressively two back at Aqueduct. That was a two-turn race, and he returns to that configuration here.