THE DARK DAY FILES: Lessons from a Day Trip to Lake Tahoe

On my day off Monday, I drove three hours each way to watch horse racing on television.

Before anyone calls me an idiot (in some cases, again), I suppose I should explain. You see, I had casino loyalty points that were going to expire in mid-September, and rather than start from scratch, I opted to make my maiden voyage from my home in northern California to Lake Tahoe.

I make a few trips every year to Las Vegas, and there are some similarities between the journeys to the two Nevada locales. When I lived in Los Angeles, it took between three and a half and four hours to get to Sin City by car, and it’s a similar-length drive from the Bay Area to Lake Tahoe. Additionally, there are agricultural inspection stops on both trips back that do nothing but inconvenience roughly 97% of motorists passing through.

However, that’s about where the similarities end. First, the drive from LA to Vegas is best known as a kind of competition. Everyone has a time they’re trying to beat (my personal best from Pasadena to a Vegas hotel is 3 hours, 32 minutes, and that’s without driving recklessly or hitting traffic), and everyone has a small town along the way they prefer to stop in for gas, food, or bathroom breaks (mine is Baker, which boasts a population of 735 people and, more importantly, an Arby’s).

The drive from the Bay Area to Lake Tahoe is anything but a competition. The last road one takes to get there is Route 50, which is mostly a two-lane road with intermittent passing lanes scattered about on the trek through the Eldorado National Forest. In other words, the trip could take anywhere from two and a half hours if you don’t hit traffic to four hours if you’re unlucky enough to follow huge trucks down that road with a peloton of your closest friends also in pursuit. I got there in three hours with a quick stop in Folsom (not at the prison), and the trip home took four with a dinner break in Vacaville.

Having said that, though, if you’re traveling during the day, you probably don’t want to hurry. Route 50 is one of the most beautiful stretches of road in the United States, and there are several improvised spots to pull over for photographs. Once you wind your way through the forest, you come out in the rare kind of ski village that also thrives during the summer.

Of course, if you’re in the neighborhood to gamble, that’s prominently catered to as well. In fact, once you weave through the village and get to the state line, two casinos greet you. Harrah’s is on one side of the street, Harvey’s is on the other, and they sit literally inches beyond the California/Nevada border.

As one can expect, both places weren’t exactly bustling with activity at 9:15 on a Monday morning. As the day went on, though, I noticed a theme. Unlike Las Vegas, which thrives on providing sensory overload at all times, Lake Tahoe provides a relaxing environment that struck me as incredibly refreshing. The race book was quiet, with jovial tellers and wait staff. The casino floor had outgoing dealers, and each table had open seats and low minimums. Las Vegas is a wonderful place, but between the crowds and the elevated minimums at busy times, there are some circumstances that give gamblers major headaches.

Those didn’t exist Monday in Lake Tahoe. Instead, what I saw were fun atmospheres with people having a great time. Horse racing types, take note: Gamblers don’t necessarily mind losing if external factors provide some bang for their buck. It wasn’t Vegas, but it didn’t have to be.

I spent most of the day in the race book at Harvey’s, and for the last two races on Saratoga’s Monday program, I spent time chatting with a group of maybe five or six people. We all wound up on the same horse in the finale, first-time starter Surge of Pride. The Linda Rice trainee won on debut at odds of 7/2, and we were all pretty fired up as we headed to the windows (which, by the way, boasted no lines the entire day) to cash our winning tickets.

To tie all of this together: I’ve used this space a lot over the past few months to advocate for fan education, which I believe makes for a more attractive gambling product. Fans that feel comfortable with the product bet more, and they’re much more likely to recommend what they do to friends who are curious. Judging by what I see on Twitter on a daily basis, we have a large portion of the racing fan base that would not recommend the sport to those close to them, and that’s a problem that must be fixed (Thoroughbred Idea Foundation, are you listening?).

It’s great to provide all sorts of data to fans and handicappers, and if that leads to betting action, then a large part of the mission has been accomplished. That’s a large part of what I do for a living, and I hope I’m doing a decent job of that. However, what also works is to provide an atmosphere people feel comfortable in. We can produce that in really simple ways. We can fix timing issues that should not exist in 2018, both with the scheduling of races at different tracks and the times of those races themselves. We can test proposed rule changes by asking if novices would understand explanations of said changes made in 15 seconds or less. We can find ways to legitimately grow the game by marketing to the people who keep it going with steady action, as opposed to those who come to the track once or twice a year and don’t put money through the windows.

Nevada, of course, also has legalized sports betting, and that’s the elephant in the room. When sports betting becomes widely legalized, we need to present the best wagering product imaginable in order to stay competitive. There are steps we can take right now that aren’t huge ones. It’s my hope that we take them, improve the gambling atmosphere in this sport, and give horse racing an improved foundation moving forward.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/27/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,326.20

It’s hard to believe, but after the conclusion of Monday’s card, we’ll only have six days of racing left at Saratoga before everyone packs up and heads back to Belmont. Part of the joy of Saratoga is its nature as a boutique meet, and it’s why serious racing fans are not at all crazy about the prospect of extending the Spa schedule even further. Having said that, it’s tough to see the meet wind down, especially given the weather that battered upstate New York for most of it.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: I had the right idea going against Parauari, but picked the wrong middle-priced horse. Zorzor never fired, so we dropped $30.

MONDAY’S PLAY: My action focuses on the sixth race. With speed as good as it’s been on turf lately, I need to key #4 DR. SHANE, who’s owned by fellow Pink Sheet handicapper Dan Feiss (though I like Dan, my feelings about the horse are based on his early zip, not his owner!). I’ll put $5 on him to win and place, and also key him in $3 exactas above and below #1 NEW YORK SONG, #3 STOLEN PISTOL, and #6 BAM BAM BLU.

TOTAL WAGERED: $28

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Klaravich entry, Race 3
Longshot: Rose’s Vision, Race 8

R1

Woodbury
Just Right
Red Zinger

#5 WOODBURY: Was second behind a next-out stakes winner in the slop last month. I’m taking a stance that the race he comes out of is stronger than the one the other top contenders in here exit; #1 JUST RIGHT: Took a step forward when second last time out after pressing a fast pace. He’s got enough speed to establish inside position for formidable connections; #3 RED ZINGER: Was a nose behind my second selection last time out and was a bit one-paced that day. He ran like a horse that wants more ground, and he gets an extra furlong in this event.

R2

Alkhaatam (MTO)
Sargeant Drive
Midnight Tea Time

#5 SARGEANT DRIVE: Was beaten just a length going a mile and a quarter last time out and is bred up and down for the even-longer journey he’ll travel here. He’s by Tapit and out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, and he looms large; #9 MIDNIGHT TEA TIME: Has run a few OK races going longer and runs for new trainer Joe Sharp, who’s enjoyed a solid meet. He may need some pace, but his best effort could win this; #4 WINTER UNION: Has improved since going to the turf and has a pedigree that implies he’ll get this distance. DIRT SELECTIONS: ALKHAATAM, CHATEAU, SARGEANT DRIVE.

R3

Klaravich entry
Mambo Dancer
Big Mischief

KLARAVICH ENTRY: #1 SUPERCOMMITTEE and #1A MERGER ARBITRAGE could both win this. The former ran well in a similar race earlier in the meet, while the latter drops down coming off the bench for Chad Brown; #4 MAMBO DANCER: Was rated far off the pace last time out but made up some ground before running out of gas. She could improve if she’s a bit more forwardly-placed; #2 BIG MISCHIEF: Debuted running third at Monmouth Park on dirt, but has a pedigree that hints she could be a turf horse. She could improve at second asking for the top trainer and jockey at the meet.

R4

Weekend Hideaway
Eye Luv Lulu
Celtic Chaos

#1 WEEKEND HIDEAWAY: Loves Saratoga and won a state-bred stakes race earlier in the meet over several of these foes. He’s got plenty of speed and boasts a big recent workout over this strip; #2 EYE LUV LULU: Has plenty of early speed and figures to be the main threat to my top pick. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because of his 0 for 5 record in upstate New York; #4 CELTIC CHAOS: Would certainly benefit from a speed duel should one arise, but he seems to have regressed from his 2017 form. Still, given the pace scenario, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him run on late for a piece of it.

R5

Mobridge
Vincento
DiPrima entry

#2 MOBRIDGE: Has had lots of success at this level and makes his first start for new trainer Danny Gargan. He’s never finished off the board in three local starts and is reunited with Jose Lezcano, who piloted him to his two scores last year; #3 VINCENTO: Was run down in an off-the-turf event two weeks ago and returns to his preferred surface. He beat my top pick two back at Belmont and could conceivably do so again in what hit me as a two-horse race; DIPRIMA ENTRY: I prefer #1A PECULIAR SENSATION, who has plenty of early speed and topped allowance foes two back at Belmont. The inner turf can be very kind to horses with zip, and he’ll be a price.

R6

Dr. Shane
Bam Bam Blu
New York Song

#4 DR. SHANE: Comes back to his preferred surface and should put his early speed on display. This isn’t an easy spot, but aggressive rider Carmouche should get him involved early (good luck to owner/fellow Pink Sheet handicapper Dan Feiss!); #6 BAM BAM BLU: Made it two in a row in his turf debut last time out for a very strong barn. He has tactical speed but doesn’t necessarily need the lead to run well, which is a plus; #1 NEW YORK SONG: Was second in a tough event at this route last month. The rail isn’t ideal for his running style, but it’s not impossible for him to work out a trip and come running late.

R7

Riff Raff
Sal the Turtle
Summer Bourbon

#5 RIFF RAFF: Was an impressive winner last time out and was claimed out of that event by George Weaver, who doesn’t claim many runners. This is a tough race for the level, but he could be sitting on a big effort; #3 SAL THE TURTLE: Took a big leap forward last time out, when he romped over much weaker foes and earned a 98 Beyer Speed Figure. He had a perfect trip that day, but there’s also a chance he’s returned to his early-2017 form; #1 SUMMER BOURBON: Hasn’t won in a while but has a big recent work and adds blinkers today. It’s odd that he’s never run with them before, and they could get him more involved early on.

R8

Rose’s Vision
Prioritize
Combatant

#5 ROSE’S VISION: Is 2 for 2 going two turns on turf, and that’s the route he gets here. He could sit a stalking trip off of several horses that need the lead, and that seems like exactly what he wants; #10 PRIORITIZE: Rallied to beat optional claiming foes earlier in the meet and will get plenty of speed in front of him. I’m not crazy about the post, but he could still be getting better given his relative lack of experience; #3 COMBATANT: Has been running against stakes foes to this point in the season and should relish the class relief. His plodding style may not be ideal for the inner turf, but with a fast pace almost certainly assured, he could clunk up for a piece of it.

R9

Corey Scores
Surge of Pride
Short Pour

#12 COREY SCORES: Needs some luck to draw in off the AE list, but will be tough if she gets to run. She debuted with a third-place finish in a live race that’s already produced a next-out winner; #4 SURGE OF PRIDE: Debuts for Linda Rice, who can certainly win with turf sprinters. She’s a daughter of Kantharos, whose offspring often have an affinity for the grass; #6 SHORT POUR: Is bred up and down for turf and debuts for a trainer that’s had a lot of success with firsters this year. Most of it has been with dirt horses, but this one seems well-meant.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/26/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,356.20

A lot of us are very quick to vilify stewards when it appears they get decisions wrong. I think it’s fair to point out when they get things right, especially on big stages.

This was the case in Saturday’s Grade 1 Personal Ensign, where Abel Tasman and Elate made contact in mid-stretch. Social media was split on the final ruling of “no change,” but I thought this was the right call. Abel Tasman did come out, but Elate also came in a bit, and it sure seemed (judging by the head-on) that the eventual winner got the worst of the contact. Either way, it was a fantastic race between two top-notch 4-year-olds, and they’re likely to face off again in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff later this year.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: I wanted to get some value out of Way Early in the second race, and I did that. Despite that one prevailing at even money, the $6 exacta returned $150 (thanks to longshot Appealing Briefs running second), and we also got a few bucks out of a consolation double payoff when Silver Dust scratched at the gate. In total, the $32 post-scratch investment returned a tidy $159.75.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to take a stand against the likely favorite in the third race, as I can’t endorse #4 PARAUARI at short odds given his two duds downstate. I much prefer likely second choice #3 ZORZOR, and I’ll keep things simple with a $30 win bet on that one.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Enliven, Race 5
Longshot: Iron Mast, Race 10

R1

Can’tweallgetalong
Espresso Caliente
Flatexcel

#5 CAN’TWEALLGETALONG: Rallied for third in his first start against winners and could benefit from the likely race shape in this spot. There’s a lot of early speed signed on, and this one’s usual race could leave him in position to capitalize on that; #8 ESPRESSO CALIENTE: Hasn’t won in a while, but drops significantly for this race and may sit a perfect stalking trip from his outside post. Both factors could be enough to wake him up; #2 FLATEXCEL: Went too fast early on last time out and faded badly late. He cuts back in distance and may be the fastest of this bunch out of the gate.

R2

Black Dynamite
Speedy Solution
Miss Rombauer

#12 BLACK DYNAMITE: Merits a long look if she draws in off the AE list. She’s by top turf sire More Than Ready and is a half to Grade 1 winner Killer Graces, who was very precocious; #4 SPEEDY SOLUTION: Ran like a filly that wants to go long in her debut, where she was beaten less than two lengths despite a rough trip. Ward’s numbers with horses stretching out aren’t great, but improvement is logical at second asking; #8 MISS ROMBAUER: Fetched $375,000 at auction earlier this year and looms large for powerhouse connections. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because it’s not easy to debut going two turns and there are no five-furlong works on the tab.

R3

Zorzor
Parauari
Acoustic

#3 ZORZOR: Drops way down in class for this event, and his best race would make him very tough to beat. He topped allowance foes two back at Churchill Downs, and his flexibility is a big plus; #4 PARAUARI: Is another dropping down in class, and he does so for aggressive connections after a pair of misfires downstate. He hasn’t done much running since coming to the U.S., though, and there won’t be much value to speak of; #1 ACOUSTIC: Hasn’t won in a while, but did take a step forward last time out in his first start for Jason Servis. He was beaten just a half-length that day at this level, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back.

R4

Maho Bay
Curiousncuriouser
Nocturnal Mission

#7 MAHO BAY: Was a good second in her local debut last time out and has worked well since then. That was a fast race, and a repeat performance would make her formidable (especially given the cushy outside draw); #3 CURIOUSNCURIOUSER: Missed the break in that race, but romped two back at Belmont in her first start for Chris Englehart. A cleaner break here would make her a contender; #1 NOCTURNAL MISSION: Hasn’t won since her debut in February of 2017, but her local debut wasn’t bad and Javier Castellano sees fit to ride back in this spot.

R5

Enliven
Vomba (2nd dam G1W Cash Run)
Angelia

#8 ENLIVEN: Is out of the Grade 1-winning mare It’s Tricky, which makes her a half to multiple graded stakes-winner Enticed. She’s worked well, and Joe Bravo taking the call could signal that it’s go time; #4 VOMBA: Makes her debut for an outfit that’s very sharp with first-time starters. She’s by all-world sire Candy Ride, and her female family includes second dam Cash Run, who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies; #3 ANGELIA: Will almost certainly take money based on the Pletcher/Velazquez connections. Her works are OK, and she’s bred to be a runner, but it’s been a very quiet summer for this barn by its lofty standards.

R6

Lunaire
Dr. Edgar
Holiday Bonus

#9 LUNAIRE: Hasn’t won in a while, but could get the benefit of a race with plenty of early speed drawn to his inside. The faster they go early, the better this one’s chances figure to be; #3 DR. EDGAR: Has had his issues, given the layoff lines, but he hasn’t run a bad race in more than two years and comes in off a strong second in his first start for Barclay Tagg. He’s got speed, but can also rate a bit, which opens up the possibility of an ideal stalking trip; #1 HOLIDAY BONUS: Hasn’t found the winner’s circle of late, but cuts back after going much longer last time out. This seems more like the trip he wants, and he’s another that could be moving the right way late.

R7

Myhartblongstodady
Chestnut Street
Way Smart

#7 MYHARTBLONGSTODADY: Missed by a nose at this level last time out, and she nearly got the job done after rallying from 10th in a 12-horse field. She’s drawn favorably here and would benefit from others showing early zip; #11 CHESTNUT STREET: Is the other Chad Brown runner, and she makes her first start against winners. She ran well earlier in the meet and could improve, but the post position is a red flag; #8 WAY SMART: Was third in the race my top pick exits after probably moving a bit too soon. Joe Bravo hops aboard, and he’s made the most of his mounts to this point in the meet.

R8

Proven Reserves
Souper Tapit
Secret House

#6 PROVEN RESERVES: Bounced back from a disappointing run two back with a daylight win earlier in the meet. If he can string two strong races together, he’ll strictly be the one to beat; #3 SOUPER TAPIT: Has run two sharp races in back-to-back off-the-turf events this season. He hasn’t won in more than a year, and this barn is cold, but the last race was strong enough that I can’t ignore him; #5 SECRET HOUSE: Was second as an odds-on favorite last time out and was claimed by Tom Amoss that day. His best race puts him in the mix, but it’s been a long summer for Amoss, who’s 0 for 12 at the meet as of this writing.

R9

Morticia
Epping Forest
Tillie’s Lily

#8 MORTICIA: Was one of many that was likely compromised by the soft going in the Caress Stakes last time out. Her usual race is certainly good enough to win, and we may get a price given the large field; #12 EPPING FOREST: Has won three of her last four coming into this race and figures to be running well late. She may have been my top pick if not for the horrendous post position, and she could very well overcome that; #5 TILLIE’S LILY: Has won four races in a row and will likely go very fast out of the gate. She may not be alone up front, but there’s a chance she’s faster than her opposition and will have plenty left for the stretch run.

R10

Iron Mast
Joe’s Smokin Gun
Powerstroke

#10 IRON MAST: Debuts in this spot for a sharp first-out trainer and is bred to be a solid turf horse. Given the lackluster field, that may be good enough to put him into the winner’s circle at a bit of a price; #8 JOE’S SMOKIN GUN: Is 0 for 12 lifetime and has run second three times in a row coming into this event. He’ll likely be forwardly placed, and that could help, but it’s tough to have too much confidence given the career record; #6 POWERSTROKE: Looks like the main early speed in this race, where he’ll come back to the turf course. I’m not sure how far he wants to go, but the inner turf does tend to move speed horses up a bit.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/25/18 (Travers Day)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,228.45

It’s Travers Day, which usually means some joke about NYRA’s ridiculous (and selectively-enforced) policy against running on the grounds. However, I’m breaking tradition to deal with something much more important, on a day where I hopefully have the audience to do it.

Over the past few weeks, journalism at some colleges and universities has come under attack. One school has merged journalism and public relations into the same major. Another (which I wrote about at length this past week) has gone so far as to restructure its student newspaper to essentially be a parrot for administrators and their missions. I highly doubt these schools are alone in taking these steps, and I want to do something about it.

If you’re an aspiring journalist/writer/reporter, and you’re looking for advice, my Twitter direct message box is open. I specifically opened it up for this purpose, and I’m happy to provide some sort of guidance to anyone who wants it. If you’re out there, and you’re somehow affected by the nonsense some administrators think is standard operating procedure, feel free to reach out (@AndrewChampagne).

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Kharafa winning may have been a feel-good moment given his advanced age, but it knocked us out of the Grand Slam (not like it was going to pay much, though). We dropped $24.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I think the stakes races are a bit chalky today, so I’ll focus on the early part of the program. My plays come in the second race, where I think there’s a way to extract some value out of #4 WAY EARLY. I’ll play $6 exactas using him above #2 NEW JERSEY JOHN, #6 IDES OF ARCH, and #10 APPEALING BRIEFS, as well as $3 exactas with him behind those three. Finally, I’ll single Way Early in $5 doubles that end with #1 TOMMY T and #8 SILVER DUST in the third.

TOTAL WAGERED: $37

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: City of Light, Race 9
Longshot: Bird’s Eye View, Race 5

R1

Puttheglassdown
Greyes Creek
Mischievous Bird

#5 PUTTHEGLASSDOWN: Debuted with a strong second to Nitrous, one of the better 2-year-olds on the grounds. We won’t get the 19-1 odds he was that day, but if he steps forward, he’ll be tough to beat; #1 GREYES CREEK: Fetched $850,000 at auction earlier this year and has worked like a good horse. The rail draw isn’t ideal for a debuting runner, but he may be talented enough to overcome it; #2 MISCHIEVOUS BIRD: Represents local racing institution Marylou Whitney and has been working very well for trainer Norm Casse. Offspring of Into Mischief tend to be precocious, and if you like him, you may get a bit of a price.

R2

Way Early
New Jersey John
Ides of Arch

#4 WAY EARLY: Drops into a first-level allowance after chasing graded stakes foes in each of his last two starts. He was second in the Grade 2 Penn Mile, and his usual race should beat this bunch; #2 NEW JERSEY JOHN: Was second at this level as a 24-1 shot earlier in the meet and won two of his three previous starts since coming off the bench. This barn hasn’t started many runners, but all five starters have hit the board; #6 IDES OF ARCH: Rallied to be third in his first start since November downstate, and his lone win came over this turf course. There’s some pace signed on in this race, and he could come running late for a piece of it.

R3

Tommy T
Silver Dust
Hollywood Star

#1 TOMMY T: Came off the bench running earlier in the meet, when he was second in a swift seven-furlong event. He’ll likely show speed from the rail, and it’s encouraging to see Rosario ride back; #8 SILVER DUST: Was fourth in that race, but likely went too fast early on. He’s worked well since and could be ripe for a bounce-back effort; #6 HOLLYWOOD STAR: Was third when cutting back to a sprint distance off of a freshening. The extra sixteenth could help him, and he may come running late at a price.

R4

Digital Footprint
Noble Nebraskan
Social Paranoia

#3 DIGITAL FOOTPRINT: Was a late-running second in his unveiling, which came at a two-turn distance. It’s tough to debut at such a route, and he wasn’t helped by the slow pace set in front of him; #14 NOBLE NEBRASKAN: May not draw in, but if he does, I need to use him. He’s bred up and down to be a good turf horse, and I’ve picked him three or four times this meet. One of these days, he’s going to run, right?; #7 SOCIAL PARANOIA: Goes to the turf and is bred to like it. He’s by solid turf sire Street Boss, and his 319 turf Tomlinson is one of the top such numbers in the field.

R5

Bird’s Eye View
Red Knight
Classic Covey

#2 BIRD’S EYE VIEW: Seems to have turned a corner from age three to age four. All three of his starts this year have shown significant improvement from his 2017 form, and he was a close second behind stakes-quality runner Patterson Cross last time out at Belmont; #4 RED KNIGHT: Has yet to miss the exacta in six career starts and showed a bit of tactical speed last time out. He’s one-half of a solid one-two punch for trainer Bill Mott, who’s had a good meet; #5 CLASSIC COVEY: Is the other Mott runner, and he’s chased some of the top turf horses on the East Coast in his last three starts. This class drop should help, although it’s a bit concerning that he hasn’t found a way to win since October.

R6

Promises Fulfilled
Still Having Fun
Firenze Fire

#1 PROMISES FULFILLED: May have been a one-turn horse all along. He ran a huge race in the Grade 3 Amsterdam, and while the potential for a bounce does exist, a repeat of that race would make him incredibly tough; #7 STILL HAVING FUN: Came from well back to win the Grade 2 Woody Stephens over several horses that also show up here (including my top pick). I doubt he’ll get that kind of setup again here, but he’s worked well, Rosario rides back, and he’d certainly benefit if my top pick isn’t gifted an easy lead; #8 FIRENZE FIRE: Ran a colossal race in the Grade 3 Dwyer, but I’m a bit skeptical he can repeat it. His best races have come at Belmont, where he also won last year’s Grade 1 Champagne, and that was such a huge improvement over his previous 2018 form that I’m skeptical he can reproduce that form (though he’ll be formidable if he does).

R7

Abel Tasman
Elate
Farrell

#1 ABEL TASMAN: Got back in the winner’s circle in emphatic fashion when romping in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps on Belmont Stakes Day. She won the Coaching Club American Oaks here last year, and while the rail draw isn’t ideal, she’s definitely the one to beat; #6 ELATE: Came back running in the Grade 2 Delaware Handicap, where she overpowered a questionable field going a 10-furlong distance she’s shown she loves. She won last year’s Grade 1 Alabama here and will get plenty of pace to rate behind; #5 FARRELL: Led all the way in the Grade 3 Shuvee and generally runs the same race every time out. She likely won’t be alone on the front end, but when this barn gets a horse on the right track, they tend to stay there.

R8

Finley’sluckycharm
Marley’s Freedom
Lewis Bay

#5 FINLEY’SLUCKYCHARM: Won the Grade 2 Honorable Miss off a bit of a freshening and looms large here. For a top-level sprint, there’s not a ton of early speed signed on, so she could sit a picture-perfect trip; #7 MARLEY’S FREEDOM: Ships east for the Bob Baffert barn and merits respect solely off of that fact. She’s won three in a row, including two graded stakes races, but her starts at seven furlongs haven’t been quite as impressive as her efforts going shorter; #6 LEWIS BAY: Took advantage in the Grade 3 Bed o’ Roses when main foe American Gal did not fire. She won by 5 1/2 lengths that day, and a repeat performance would almost certainly get her a piece of it here.

R9

City of Light
C Z Rocket
Limousine Liberal

#8 CITY OF LIGHT: Ships east for this event after a strong campaign to date. This seven-furlong trip hits him right between the eyes, and he’s already won a pair of Grade 1 events at this trip; #6 C Z ROCKET: Seems to have gotten stronger from age three to age four, and won a minor stakes last time out in impressive fashion. Toss the Grade 1 Malibu, and you’re left with a horse that’s won four of five starts for a high-percentage outfit; #1 LIMOUSINE LIBERAL: Has repeatedly shown that this is his best distance. He prevailed in the Grade 2 Belmont Sprint Championship last time out, but must once again work out a trip from a tricky inside post.

R10

Sadler’s Joy
Spring Quality
Funtastic

#10 SADLER’S JOY: Likely wasn’t helped by the soft going in the Grade 2 Bowling Green, but he was still beaten just a half-length in a race that did not set up for his running style. He won this event last year, and a repeat seems within his grasp; #2 SPRING QUALITY: Won the Grade 1 Manhattan, which has proven to be a very strong race. He won’t be 18-1 today, unfortunately, and the distance is a bit of an unknown, but the versatility he’s shown is a big plus; #3 FUNTASTIC: Has shown significant talent since being stretched out to extended turf routes. He wired the field in the Grade 1 United Nations at Monmouth, and while there were some circumstances in that race that didn’t help other runners (namely oppressive heat), there’s also a chance this one’s developed into a top-notch marathoner.

R11

Good Magic
Gronkowski
Mendelssohn

#9 GOOD MAGIC: Was an impressive winner of the Grade 1 Haskell at Monmouth and has trained well since shipping to upstate New York. There’s a chance this distance is a bit far for him, but if he repeats his last-out effort, I think he’s the most likely winner; #3 GRONKOWSKI: Rallied to be second behind Justify in the Belmont Stakes, a race that doubled as his American debut. He was sidelined with a minor injury earlier in the summer, but he’s working well and would benefit from a speed duel; #8 MENDELSSOHN: Almost certainly went too fast early on in the Grade 3 Dwyer, where horse-for-course Firenze Fire romped. His Kentucky Derby effort is a throw-out, and I think it’s encouraging that he’s been shipped back across the Atlantic for another shot at this level.

R12

A Raving Beauty
Proctor’s Ledge
Quidura

#1 A RAVING BEAUTY: Won two in a row before being beaten less than a length by next-out Grade 1 Beverly D. winner Sistercharlie in the Grade 1 Diana. She’s not an easy horse to ride, and I’m not crazy about the post, but her best race beats these; #3 PROCTOR’S LEDGE: Had a troubled trip in the Diana, but has shown an affinity for this turf course and is reunited with John Velazquez, who piloted her to her two top efforts of the season. It does help that there’s some speed signed on; #5 QUIDURA: May have needed the race last time out, one that doubled as her first start in nine months. She’s won a pair of graded stakes races and was beaten a head by Lady Eli in last year’s Diana on this turf course.

R13

American Rule (MTO)
Azzedine
Victor Lounge

#5 AZZEDINE: Drops further down the class ladder after misfiring at 7/5 against $75,000 maiden claimers earlier in the meet. He didn’t have the best of trips that day, and this seems like a “now or never” spot; #9 VICTOR LOUNGE: Has shown ample early speed in several starts at this level and returns to a two-turn route of ground. He’s run several of his better races at such a configuration, and he could get brave if given an easy lead; #11 SPRING ON CURLIN: Has certainly had plenty of chances, but was a fast-closing fourth when dropped to this level last time out. That was over a yielding surface that may have dulled his late kick a bit, and he could improve at a price over firm going. DIRT SELECTIONS: AMERICAN RULE, UNCLE LARRY, WISELY.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/24/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,252.45

Several representatives of the Copake Country Club will be in attendance at Saratoga Race Course this afternoon. I was at the gathering they held on Travers Eve last year, and even without the Scots that were in attendance a season ago, this year’s trip promises to be a fun one.

One note to those people: If your reigning, defending, undisputed club champion even so much as thinks about running a tournament again, immediately revoke his bar privileges and/or whack him in the knee with a 6-iron repeatedly until he reconsiders. His son worries about him and is tired of pointing out that such a responsibility is a reminder of the old axiom, “no good deed goes unpunished.”

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: It only takes one score to make up for 29 days of horrible wagers. Fixed Point wired the field in the finale and brought home a Pick Four that returned $856.25 for our $40 investment.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: This is a program fit for the Grand Slam, as there’s a heavy favorite in the payoff leg and sizable fields in the earlier legs. My $2 ticket starts in the seventh and looks like this: 1,4,6 with 2,7 with 2,3 with 6. On its own, one $2 combination may not pay much, but if I hit it multiple times, I can extract some value out of #6 OFFERING PLAN, who may be odds-on in the West Point.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Offering Plan, Race 10
Longshot: Speightful Kitten, Race 6

R1

Mister Muy Bien (MTO)
Rice entry
Pipes

RICE ENTRY: Either #1 BEACHSIDE or #1A SOUNDS GOOD could win, but I slightly prefer the latter. Both are bred for turf success, but Sounds Good is probably bred to be more of a sprinter, while his stablemate may want a bit more ground; #3 PIPES: Debuted running third in an off-the-turf event last month and is bred to like the lawn. He may have gotten something out of the debut, and Rosario rides back for Contessa (whose barn has heated up a bit of late); #7 ANALYZETHISANDTHAT: Goes back to the turf and faces state-breds for the first time after two OK runs against open company at Monmouth Park. It’s worth noting that Garcia comes up from the shore for the mount. DIRT SELECTIONS: MISTER MUY BIEN, PIPES, ANALYZETHISANDTHAT.

R2

H Man
Candy Zip
Freud’s Affair

#4 H MAN: Broke a long winless drought with a victory last time out and was claimed by Rudy Rodriguez. There’s a ton of early speed signed on, which could set things up for his late kick; #5 CANDY ZIP: Improved last time out off a dud two back and could take another step forward here. He cuts back in distance and doesn’t necessarily need the lead to run well; #3 FREUD’S AFFAIR: Didn’t fire here earlier in the meet but may have been compromised by the sloppy track. His fast track form is fine, and if he channels that, he could hit the board at a price.

R3

Evaluator
Sea Foam
Speke

#1 EVALUATOR: Ran a big race here last month when he closed to be second on a track that was tilted towards speed. The rail draw isn’t ideal, but there’s a lot of speed signed on, which should set things up for his late kick; #7 SEA FOAM: Beat a number of these runners last time out at Finger Lakes in a race that doubled as his two-turn debut. A repeat effort gives him a shot, but it’s unlikely that he gets an easy lead here; #4 SPEKE: Didn’t break well at all last time out and adds blinkers today. The race shape doesn’t favor his front-running style, but he’s certainly eligible to improve off of his most recent effort.

R4

Shak’s Hidden Gem
Shady Shady Shady
Mensa Member

#3 SHAK’S HIDDEN GEM: Was fourth at 32-1 in her debut going shorter earlier in the meet. She’s by Shackleford and out of a Tiznow mare, so she’s bred to go long; #10 SHADY SHADY SHADY: Was second in her unveiling last month and is another that may want more distance. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s due to the far outside post; #7 MENSA MEMBER: Fetched $200,000 last summer and debuts for powerhouse connections. She could be a runner, but the lack of a turf work is pretty puzzling.

R5

Bankit
La Fuerza
Bustin to Be Loved

#5 BANKIT: Was impressive in victory earlier in the meet, when he toyed with state-bred maidens following a second-place finish in open company. A repeat performance would likely make him the one to beat; #7 LA FUERZA: Is 2 for 2, and both of his wins have come by daylight. He hasn’t faced the strongest fields, but the last two works look sharp and it wouldn’t be shocking if he was still improving: #4 BUSTIN TO BE LOVED: Wired a field of maidens at 19-1 earlier in the meet. He’ll likely go early once again, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride him back.

R6

Stoney Bennett (MTO)
Banana Thief
Speightful Kitten

#9 BANANA THIEF: Picked up the pieces last time out when winning a photo finish in a turf sprint that fell apart late. This race should have a similar shape to it, and a repeat effort could get him another win; #4 SPEIGHTFUL KITTEN: Broke dead last in his first start since November, and that meant he lost all chance given his preferred running style. He’s run well at this route in the past, and the 15-1 morning line odds hit me as an overlay; #6 FRISKY MAGICIAN: Was beaten by my top pick last time out, but is another that could be passing plenty of tired ones late. His best race could win, but he’s had plenty of chances lately and has just one win in his last 12 starts. DIRT SELECTIONS: STONEY BENNETT, THE CARETAKER, ETHAN HUNT.

R7

Collegeville Girl
Time Warp
Party Like Grandma

#4 COLLEGEVILLE GIRL: Graduated at first asking in a live race that has already produced a few next-out winners. She’s worked well since that effort, and she certainly seems like the one with the most early zip; #6 TIME WARP: Exited that very race to win going away in a seven-furlong event. That was a solid victory, and even though she might want more distance, she figures to be a major player; #1 PARTY LIKE GRANDMA: Boasts both one of the best names on the grounds and a runaway first-out win at Finger Lakes. Andre Worrie comes in to ride, and she should show speed from the rail.

R8

Fifty Five
La Moneda
Lady Joan

#7 FIFTY FIVE: Has significant back class and figures to be running well late in a race with lots of early speed. The tandem of Chad Brown and Javier Castellano is always tough to ignore, and she’ll likely be a short price; #2 LA MONEDA: Has won three races in a row and certainly seems to be in career form. She’s got enough tactical speed to sit a stalking trip, although Castellano hopping off isn’t ideal; #8 LADY JOAN: Went wire-to-wire going much longer earlier in the meet. She’s won at distances ranging from 5 1/2 furlongs to 1 3/8 miles, and she’s shown an affinity for this turf course.

R9

Split Time
Take Charge Aubrey
English Soul

#3 SPLIT TIME: Overcame a troubled trip to best a number of these foes last time out at Finger Lakes. She’s won five of her last six starts and has shown that she can go two turns; #2 TAKE CHARGE AUBREY: Bounced back from a loss to my top pick with a romp last time out going seven furlongs. Jose Ortiz rides back for Bruce Levine, who’s enjoyed a strong meet to this point; #11 ENGLISH SOUL: Seems like the main speed and will be reunited with Manuel Franco, who has piloted her to two of her three wins. She’ll almost certainly need to go from the outside post, but she may have enough zip to clear most of the field going into the first turn.

R10

Offering Plan
J J’s Dreaming (MTO)
Rapt

#6 OFFERING PLAN: Looms large on class, ability, and running style. He’s beaten many of these rivals in the past, and seems like the lone closer in a race full of early speed; #11 RAPT: Is another that will drop back and make one big run. He hasn’t won in more than a year, but the faster they go early, the more he figures to like it; #10 KHARAFA: Makes his 50th career start here and is easy to root for given his longevity. He may be past his peak, but his late-running style could prove helpful in this event.

R11

Causforcelebration
Brockmoninoff
Cross Multiply

#9 CAUSFORCELEBRATION: Was second in a similar spot earlier in the meet, and he was wide most of the way that day. This isn’t a great post, but he’s a bit closer to the rail, and his primary competition draws an even worse spot; #12 BROCKMONINOFF: Was beaten less than a length by my top pick last time out, but got no help with the post position. His best chance may be to clear the field from the get-go, and that’s not easy to do from the far outside; #5 CROSS MULTIPLY: Comes back to the turf after running second on the main track earlier this month. He gets a decent post position, which isn’t a luxury he’s had in many of his prior outings.