Pink Sheet

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/21/18

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $978

Earlier this week, news broke that owner Ron Paolucci is leaving the game following a series of run-ins with people and organizations he called “the racing elite.” Paolucci (whose horses run under the moniker Loooch Racing Stables) was second among all North American owners with 159 wins in 2017, so this is not a small-time operation that’s being dissolved.

I’m partial to strong personalities and owners who aren’t afraid to run their horses in big spots (it was the shoe of his horse that wound up in Gun Runner’s tail during last year’s Whitney!). That latter point hits home in an age where field sizes at the top end of the sport seem to be getting smaller with every passing year. I’ve never met Mr. Paolucci, but it seems like he’s done a lot of good for the sport of horse racing, and I sincerely hope he reconsiders his decision.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Monteleone could not have broken worse in the third at Saratoga and lost all chance immediately. We dropped $22.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to try to extract some value from my best bet of the day, which is #2 NITROUS in the sixth. I’ll play $10 doubles that start in the fifth (which strikes me as a fun betting race) and use #8 SHAPE SHIFTER and #9 OUR GIRL ABBY.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Nitrous, Race 6
Longshot: Whiskey Echo, Race 9

R1

Dubb entry
Helooksthepart
Full Salute

DUBB ENTRY: I prefer FORGE, who ran a clunker last time out but reeled off three wins in a row before that. He drops down in class for aggressive connections, and while J S BACH isn’t poorly meant, the former’s the reason the entry will be a short-priced favorite; HELOOKSTHEPART: Makes his 50th career start in this spot, and has proven himself as a hard-trying veteran that can come running late. There’s plenty of pace in this race, and he may be going best of all in the final furlong; FULL SALUTE: Didn’t break well last time out and was out of his element as a result. He was claimed by Rudy Rodriguez that day and figures to be a pace factor with a clean start.

R2

Digital Footprint
Seanow
One Mission

DIGITAL FOOTPRINT: Is bred up and down for grass and put forth a solid local drill on the training track’s turf course. He’s by Giant’s Causeway, out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare, and trained by Chad Brown, one of the best first-out turf trainers in the country; SEANOW: Didn’t do much running in his debut, but is bred to want every bit of this two-turn route. Improvement is logical at second asking, and one could do worse than trusting the Pletcher/Velazquez tandem; ONE MISSION: Merits a look at a big price. He broke terribly in his debut, but adds blinkers and distance for Bill Mott, whose horses often get better with experience.

R3

Awesome Slew
Wonderful Light
Behavioral Bias

AWESOME SLEW: Has been chasing some of the top one-turn horses in the country and merits respect in this loaded allowance event. The seven-furlong trip should hit him right between the eyes, and there should be plenty of pace for him to rate behind; WONDERFUL LIGHT: Just missed in a similarly strong allowance at Belmont, where he beat graded stakes winner Stallwalkin’ Dude (among others). He’s never missed the board in seven lifetime starts, and Franco’s piloted him to two of his three wins; BEHAVIORAL BIAS: Has finished in the money in 10 of 11 starts and broke his maiden here last summer. He was beaten less than two lengths in the Grade 3 Commonwealth and adds blinkers for a barn hitting at 29% this year.

R4

Windjammer
Gentle Ruler
Plans to Prosper

WINDJAMMER: Is a pace play in a wide-open turf event where I’d suggest hitting the “ALL” button in multi-race exotics wagers. The slight cutback in distance should help her, and I’m hoping she gets brave on the front end; GENTLE RULER: May have bounced a bit last time out off a big effort two back in what was her first start in almost six months. If she repeats the two-back effort (where she was narrowly beaten by two next-out winners), she could provide some value; PLANS TO PROSPER: Was beaten less than a length at this level last time out and gets a positive rider switch to John Velazquez. I’m not sure about the horses she faced that day, but she could improve given the new jockey and a return to a two-turn route of ground.

R5

Shape Shifter
Our Girl Abby
Tee Up

SHAPE SHIFTER: Raced greenly last time out at Laurel Park, but was a runaway winner two and three back in her first two dirt starts. A return to that form would make her tough to beat, especially given the class drop; OUR GIRL ABBY: Responded to the drop in class with a runaway win last time out at Gulfstream Park. She was claimed by Danny Gargan that day, and while she does take a step up, it’s possible she may have finally found the appropriate level; TEE UP: Hasn’t won in a while, but showed improvement in her last two outings, when she was second against similar foes downstate. She should be prominent early, and could hold on for a share at a price.

R6

Nitrous
Coast
Fed Fever

NITROUS: Did everything but win first time out at Churchill Downs, when he was beaten a neck and topped the third-place finisher by more than five lengths. A repeat of that race will make him tough, and we may get an acceptable price given the large field; COAST: Merits a look if he draws in off the AE list. He fetched $500,000 at auction earlier this year and has worked well for Todd Pletcher, but needs a scratch to make his debut in this spot; FED FEVER: Has worked well of late for George Weaver, whose barn is quietly one of the best on the circuit with first-time starters.

R7

Call Provision
Hello Don Julio
Patterson Cross

CALL PROVISION: Always seems to fire a big shot and did not disgrace himself when fourth in a pair of graded events earlier this year. He figures to get a pace to run at, and it helps that he’s won twice over this turf course; HELLO DON JULIO: Seems like the main speed in here, and is another that’s been running against some very strong turf horses. A repeat of his win here last August would make him a major player; PATTERSON CROSS: Looks much more formidable if you toss the Mac Diarmida effort, which was his first outing in more than 11 months. Draw a line through that race, and you have a runner that hasn’t run poorly since late-2016, one that could come flying late.

R8

First Appeal
Really Proud
Battle Joined

FIRST APPEAL: Ran well here three times last summer, notching two wins and a third-place finish in 24 days. Horses that are proven to love this route of ground always get extra consideration, and she’ll be tough if she can channel that form in this turf sprint; REALLY PROUD: Ran well two back in a listed stakes race, but may have moved too early last time out at Belmont. The slight cutback should help her, and she could sit a perfect stalking trip; BATTLE JOINED: Put it all together last time out in winning a swiftly-run maiden race. A similar effort would make her competitive here, but she must work out a trip from a far outside post.

R9

Sombeyay
Whiskey Echo
Lexitonian

SOMBEYAY: Has had gate issues, but is less than a length away from being 2-for-2 heading into this year’s Sanford. The rail draw is less than ideal for a horse that’s found trouble this often, but it sure seems like there’s lots of talent here; WHISKEY ECHO: Won like a 1/2 shot should in his debut and gets Lasix for the first time here. His July 9th workout was sharp, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., staying aboard is a plus; LEXITONIAN: Was professional in his debut, which he won by a length after rating just off the pace. He may be the less-fancied of Todd Pletcher’s runners, but he could still win with a logical step forward.

R10

Sistercharlie
A Raving Beauty
Proctor’s Ledge

SISTERCHARLIE: Spotted the leader nearly 30 lengths in the Grade 2 New York, but still nearly managed to get home first. Her effort two back in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley was sensational, and she’ll be tough to beat with that kind of performance; A RAVING BEAUTY: Is 2 for 2 since coming to America and won the Grade 1 Just A Game last time out. This is her first try going two turns since coming across the pond, but nothing says she can’t get that trip; PROCTOR’S LEDGE: Loves Saratoga and merits respect based on the races she ran here a season ago. She won the Grade 2 Lake Placid and Grade 3 Lake George, and she was less than a length behind my second selection last time out.

R11

Hieroglyphics
Monster Bea
Team Colors

HIEROGLYPHICS: Won here twice last summer, including when he took a $100,000 stakes race over some very solid runners. He hasn’t won since and takes a big class drop to run for a $50,000 tag, which could wake him up in a big way; MONSTER BEA: Hasn’t won in a long time, but has chased graded stakes-caliber horses for most of that stretch. He’s another for whom this race represents a drop in class; TEAM COLORS: Beat similar competition last time out at Belmont in his first start for Jimmy Jerkens. A repeat of that effort could win, but navigating a trip from the 11-hole on this turf course is no easy task.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/20/18

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL: $1,000

Before we kick things off, I ask for a small favor: Take some time today to think about the friends and families of Mike Jarboe, Matt Graves, and Manny Ycaza, all of whom we’ve lost since last year’s closing day card. All three men loved Saratoga, and they’d have loved to be here on opening day.

Now, a quick introduction for those who are unfamiliar: In addition to the pick box, I’ll do a daily bankroll section with a few paragraphs of commentary and plays for the day. If you’ve got a question, a comment, or something you’d like to see me address here, tweet me at @AndrewChampagne. Finally, if you want to follow me all meet long, content will be posted to AndrewChampagne.com 36 hours or so in advance of each card.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the third race, which houses my best bet of the day. That’s #6 MONTELEONE, who takes a sizable class drop and has run well against much better competition. I’ll put $10 on him to win, and also key him in $2 doubles that start and end there. Those doubles use #1 TOO FOOFOO FOR YOU, #4 DRYNACHAN, and #9 MIKE’S GIRL in the second, and #4 DOMINANT STRATEGY, #6 AZZEDINE, and #9 TERYN IT UP in the fourth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $22

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Monteleone, Race 3
Longshot: Fightress, Race 8

R1

Bad Student
Nobody Move
Halloween Horror

BAD STUDENT: May not have liked the quirky surface at Parx last time out, when he sat close to a solid pace and faded late. He showed strong two-turn form earlier this year at Oaklawn and should be prominent early; NOBODY MOVE: Showed a new dimension last time out when wiring the field at Belmont Park. A repeat of that effort would make him very competitive in this spot, though such a picture-perfect trip is unlikely; HALLOWEEN HORROR: Merits a look in the exotics at a price. His dirt race here last summer was OK, and he drops way down in class after running against much better company in his last three starts.

R2

Drynachan
Too Foofoo for You
Mike’s Girl

DRYNACHAN: Has a stellar turf pedigree and is working well ahead of her debut for the formidable Chad Brown barn. If she runs to her works, she could be tough in her unveiling; TOO FOOFOO FOR YOU: Was second behind a next-out winner last month downstate. That early speed could make her the one to catch, although the rail draw is less than ideal; MIKE’S GIRL: Is by Scat Daddy and out of a mare that has produced a pair of winners. She’s worked well for a trainer that doesn’t always show off his runners’ talents in the mornings.

R3

Monteleone
Fortythreeoeight N
Sicilia Mike

MONTELEONE: Lost all chance at the break last time out, so it’s easy to draw a line through that race. He hit the board in four straight starter allowance events before that and drops down in class significantly for aggressive connections; FORTYTHREEOEIGHT N: Comes back to the dirt second off the claim by Chris Englehart. His dirt races at Tampa this past winter were OK, and he could sit a perfect stalking trip at a nice price; SICILIA MIKE: Has made a heck of a living despite a 1 for 25 career mark to this point, with 10 seconds and five thirds to his credit. With a mark like that, it’s foolish to ignore him in vertical wagers.

R4

Azzedine
Teryn It Up
Dominant Strategy

AZZEDINE: Has run second three times in four tries against maiden special weight foes and drops in for a tag for the first time. Javier Castellano climbs aboard for Chad Brown, whose numbers with similar droppers are astounding; TERYN IT UP: Adds blinkers on the drop in class for Brian Lynch and exits a swiftly-run maiden special weight at Belmont Park. It helps that John Velazquez rides back, and he figures to be in the mix early; DOMINANT STRATEGY: Comes to the turf and drops down in class in an attempt to wake up this $520,000 auction purchase. His turf work a few days ago was sharp, and he’s shown some zip in his prior efforts.

R5

Wild Type
Lyrical Lady
Pletcher entry

WILD TYPE: Didn’t break well in her debut last month but has worked lights-out since then. Improvement is logical at second asking for a barn that’s hitting at a 28% clip with second-out maidens; LYRICAL LADY: Fetched $625,000 at auction earlier this year and has some strong gate drills on her tab. Her dam was Grade 3-placed at two, so precocity runs in the family; PLETCHER ENTRY: Blahnik and also-eligible Always Shopping can’t be ignored, but they’re both bred to go much longer than this 5 ½-furlong distance.

R6

Miss Mimosa
Cypriana
Palladian Bridge

MISS MIMOSA: Bounced back last time out with a close-up second at Belmont Park. The last two workouts show she could be coming into this event in peak form for a barn whose horses tend to get better as they go along; CYPRIANA: Ran a good second in a six-furlong event last month. A repeat of that effort would give her a big shot, but that clunker two back still presents some questions; PALLADIAN BRIDGE: Likely needed her last race, which was her first outing since February. Before that, she had a productive winter, winning twice and running second in a stakes race, and she could provide some exotics value given her last-out performance.

R7

Hollywood Cat
Cumbria
Dancingwithpaynter

HOLLYWOOD CAT: Merits a big chance for one of the hottest barns in the country if she draws in off the AE list. She was third in a stakes race here last summer, and there should be plenty of pace for her to rate behind; CUMBRIA: Hasn’t done much wrong since being switched to the turf three back. She hasn’t been worse than third since then, and she may get first run at the early leaders when the real running starts; DANCINGWITHPAYNTER: Will likely be a big price, but if you toss the two-back effort (her first start off a layoff), she hasn’t run a bad race in four starts on turf. She’s shown some flexibility, and it wouldn’t surprise me if she got a piece of it.

R8

Fightress
Tapping Pearl
Catherinethegreat

FIGHTRESS: Splashed home to a win in her debut at Churchill Downs, but the real draws here are the two workouts since that win. It certainly appears that she’s moved forward of late, and we’ll almost certainly get a nice price; TAPPING PEARL: Went wire-to-wire in her debut and boasts a strong local workout ahead of this event. She may want to go a bit longer given her pedigree, but unlike others in here, she’s not stretching out at all, which could help; CATHERINETHEGREAT: Romped by more than 10 lengths last time out, but that was at Gulfstream Park, over a sloppy track, and against a suspect field. That last-out Beyer Speed Figure (80) is lofty, but I’m skeptical she can reproduce such an effort, and she may need to in what appears to be a wide-open renewal of the Schuylerville.

R9

Daddy Is a Legend
Punked
Altea

DADDY IS A LEGEND: Has been chasing some of the top 3-year-old turf fillies so far this year and is one of many in here that was victimized by a very slow early pace in the Grade 3 Wonder Again. This seems like a softer spot, and she’s shown she can be closer to the pace if need be; PUNKED: Was second in the Wild Applause Stakes downstate and is one of two Chad Brown trainees in the field. The rail draw and relative lack of pace in the race could mean she’s up close early on; ALTEA: Merits respect because of her connections, but is winless in North America and has only won once in eight career starts. The addition of blinkers is noteworthy, but she may need to be up closer to the pace early than she has been of late.

R10

County Court
Prognostication
Lusitano

COUNTY COURT: Takes a big drop in running for a tag for the first time after being victimized by two slow early paces in a row downstate. There’s some speed signed on here, and that plus the class relief makes this one formidable; PROGNOSTICATION: Has never missed the board in five career turf starts, but also hasn’t run since October and drew a dreadful post position. He’s got a few strong recent works, though, and he could be good enough to win if he’s ready; LUSITANO: Is another dropping in class, and he may benefit from a return to a two-turn route of ground. His two races earlier this year at Tampa were solid, and the presence of Javier Castellano is certainly a plus.

Belmont Park Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: 9/9/17 (PLUS: Saratoga stats/recap)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

It’s opening weekend at Belmont Park, and Saturday’s card is a good one. There are 10 races on the program, and I’ve got a pair of multi-race tickets that I’m putting online. I think there’s plenty of potential for a few prices throughout the card, and hopefully, we can connect the dots. If we do, chances are we’ll get paid!

$0.50 Pick Five

R1: ALL
R2: 9,10
R3: 1,5
R4: 2,5,6
R5: 1

84 Bets, $42

This is a bit more expensive than I’d like, and if you want to downsize to an early Pick Four or a smaller Pick Five ticket, that’s just fine. My listed ticket would make for an $6 Pick Four that starts in the second leg, so I get that logic. However, the first race is wide-open, and if we get a price home there, it could set the tone for a big payday. I’m hitting the “ALL” button there, and I’ll narrow things down elsewhere.

I’ll go with Triangulate and Devine Entry in the second, and I think both could improve in their second lifetime starts. I’ll also go two-deep in the third. Portfolio Manager makes his first start for new trainer Danny Gargan, while Conquest Sure Shot woke up in his first race on dirt last time out and may have wanted this surface all along.

I’m using three in the fourth, and while two are logicals, I’m also throwing in Indimaaj, who is bred to go a distance of ground and faded following a speed duel in his unveiling. That brings me to my single, which comes in the payoff leg. I loved Kahrumana’s last race, where she set a pretty fast pace yet hung on to finish a close-up third. There’s some speed signed on here, but she seems like the quickest of the quick, and I think the rail draw is a big plus.

$0.50 Pick Four

R7: 2,3,11,12
R8: 3
R9: 3,4,7,8,9
R10: 2,10,11

60 Bets, $30

The makeup of my ticket changed considerably when Far From Over scratched out of the eighth. He would’ve been a heavy favorite, and I’m left with a single in a four-horse field. Anyway, I’m using a price in the opening leg. Itsinthestars, Treatherlikestar, and High Jingo are all logical and will be bet, but I need to use Rock Ave. Road as well. She ran some solid races here earlier in the year, and the rider switch to Joel Rosario is colossal. She ran behind a few of these at Saratoga, but I think she’ll improve with the change in scenery.

The eighth is the Saturday feature, the Seattle Slew. Conquest Windycity seems like the lone speed in a small field, and I think he’ll be very tough. The ninth, though, is much tougher. I went five-deep, and I hope that’s enough. If Camelot Kitten is right second off the layoff, he probably wins, but there’s also the possibility he just hasn’t improved from age three to age four, so I want coverage.

I’ll go three-deep to close things out. Mineralogy scratched, and that opens up the field a bit. Tu Exageres was eased last time out at Saratoga, but he’s my top pick. That one didn’t do much wrong in three starts before that, and I’m willing to give him another chance. I’ll also use Peculiar Sensation and Real Creel in an attempt to close things out.

– – – – –

OK, time for some stats before we go. Saratoga was a big meet for me in a number of ways. I put up a LOT of content on this website, and I was very curious as to the audience it reached.

I’d like to extend a special thank you to those who read and shared my stuff, because the analytics surpassed my wildest expectations. My website, and the content that was housed on it, received approximately 12,000 views from mid-July through Labor Day.

I started this website in large part because there were certain things I’d been permitted to do with a previous employer that I was stopped from doing about six months ago. I’ve never intended to make any money from this website (note that I’m not charging for picks or content!). This serves the purpose of scratching the writing/handicapping itch, while also giving people a handy reference point to find out more about me. I never once thought I’d ever reach THAT many people, and I’m floored that I did. Once again: THANK YOU.

Admittedly, a large part of that traffic was probably due to the fact that I had a very good meet. I wound up as the leading print handicapper at Saratoga, which is one of the greatest honors I will ever earn in my chosen field (not to mention validation for a chip I’ve had on my shoulder for six months!). My projected winners won 128 of 400 races where I had at least one top-three runner left after scratches, which is an even 32% clip.

Even is a good word in another sense. My father and I dove into the numbers, and we both concluded that, if you had bet $2 on every one of my top selections to win throughout the meet, you’d have, yep, broken even. In gambler’s terms, my $2 ROI was $2, which is pretty incredible considering I handicapped and provided selections for every single race, including ones where I didn’t necessarily have a strong opinion.

I’ll be back in 10 months to defend my title, and hopefully, next year’s meet goes as smoothly as the one before it did!

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: Labor Day (9/4/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $828.35

Closing Day is upon us, and it’s time for my usual round of shout-outs. Most notably, thanks to the staff at The Saratogian for once again having me in The Pink Sheet. Managing editor Charlie Kraebel, sports editor David Johnson, and the entire sports staff all do fantastic work all meet long, essentially putting out two newspapers’ worth of content, and this year, they did it while moving shop from the old office on Lake Avenue.

I’d also like to thank those who read my work this summer. Whether you saw it on AndrewChampagne.com, bought a copy of The Pink Sheet, or mooched someone else’s paper while at the track, I genuinely appreciate those who took the time to check out what I wrote and which horses I picked. It’s been a lot of fun, and I’m already looking forward to next year!

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: With the rain came surface changes and scratches, and we were washed out of all of our action.

MONDAY’S PLAY: Last year, I opted to let it all ride and it paid off, getting me closer to even on the year. This year, I’m doing something very similar. #7 YOUR LOVE looms large in the fourth race, and I think she’s a very likely winner, albeit at a short price. I’ll put all $828 of my bankroll on her, with $414 each to win and place. The question is, what do I do with the remaining 35 cents?

TOTAL WAGERED: $828

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Your Love, Race 4
Longshot: Something Joyful, Race 10

R1

Marzo
Dirty
Enticed

MARZO: Was a million-dollar baby at last year’s Keeneland September sale and has worked to that price for powerhouse connections. The outside post is a plus given his inexperience, and I think John Velazquez can make his own trip; DIRTY: Has worked strongly here for a barn that can win with first-time starters. He fetched $120k at auction earlier this year, and is by promising young sire Maclean’s Music; ENTICED: Is bred to be a very good one. He’s by Medaglia d’Oro and out of It’s Tricky, who was a very good filly at her peak. The rail draw isn’t ideal, and this barn’s horses sometimes need a race, but he could win on his best day.

R2

Escape Velocity (MTO)
Carbon Data
Son of Oahu

CARBON DATA: Drops down in class for an aggressive barn that clearly wants to win the training title at the meet. He’s been competitive against better horses, and his usual race would make him tough to beat; SON OF OAHU: Hasn’t won in a while, but has run well in each of his last two starts. Both of them came at this level, and he figures to come running late; SUTTER’S MILL: Was claimed out of his last race by Charlton Baker, who’s done very well with new acquisitions. He likely needs to step up, but his debut win at Monmouth was pretty good. DIRT SELECTIONS: ESCAPE VELOCITY, ITSABIGBOY, BUNYAAN.

R3

Driving Me Crazy
No Hiding Place
Drover Crazy

DRIVING ME CRAZY: Has improved considerably in two starts for Jason Servis, one of which was an impressive victory at this route. He showed he didn’t necessarily didn’t need the lead that day, and given the speed signed on here, that’s a plus; NO HIDING PLACE: Takes a big drop in class after flashing speed against much better horses last week. Jose Ortiz hops aboard, and this one could appreciate the considerable class relief; DROVER CRAZY: Was claimed last time out at Belmont and takes a steep drop in his first start for new connections. He’s another that could relish the shallower waters, but such a steep drop this quickly also raises some concerns.

R4

Your Love
Ring Knocker
Kelsocait

YOUR LOVE: Found the Grade 1 Test too tough last time out but won two in a row before that downstate. This does not appear to be the strongest race for the level, and her usual race would make her tough; RING KNOCKER: Must be a fun horse to own, having hit the board in 22 of 30 career races. She has not run a bad race in nearly a year, and she figures to be running well late; KELSOCAIT: Sports a solid win over this course, albeit against a weaker group. She has tactical speed and figures to be prominent early.

R5

My Bronx Tail (MTO)
Rushing Fall
Tropical Wave

RUSHING FALL: Fetched $320k at auction last summer and is bred up and down for the turf. She’s by More Than Ready and out of a Forestry mare, and some of the recent workouts appear very sharp; TROPICAL WAVE: Didn’t do much running in her debut, but I’m drawing a line through that effort. She’s bred to go much longer, and this barn’s first-time starters don’t hit at a high rate. Improvement is logical, and we may get a big price; CRITIQUE: Was an OK second in her debut, which was rained off the turf. The experience helps, but the recent workouts have been a bit on the slow side. DIRT SELECTIONS: MY BRONX TAIL, LADY BY CHOICE, CRITIQUE.

R6

Engage
Home Run Maker
He’s Bankable

ENGAGE: Ran very well in his debut, finishing a strong second behind a Hopeful contender. They went very fast early on in that event, and any improvement would make this one very formidable; HOME RUN MAKER: Fetched $205k at auction earlier this year and has been one of the fastest-working 2-year-olds on the grounds. He’s bred to be a good one, and he certainly merits consideration; HE’S BANKABLE: Probably wants to go longer, but can’t be ignored. His recent works are very sharp, and given the pedigree (by Arch, out of a Seeking the Gold mare), he could benefit if there’s any moisture left in the track.

R7

Heart to Heart
Delta Prince
Projected

HEART TO HEART: Has one way of going, which is on the lead, and that could help him here. There’s not much other early speed signed on, and this one shouldn’t be hurt by any moisture still left in the turf course; DELTA PRINCE: Has done very little wrong since being switched to the turf. He’s won three out of four starts on the lawn, including an impressive win here earlier in the meet; PROJECTED: Has run second in each of his last three starts, including last month’s Lure. That was a swiftly-run race, and this one’s back class makes him a contender.

R8

Jcs American Dream (MTO)
Tizzelle
Driven by Speed

TIZZELLE: Has two wins and two seconds in four career starts, including one that came earlier in the meet. That day’s winner came right back to win again, and this one has beaten several of today’s rivals in the past; DRIVEN BY SPEED: Has woken up since going to the turf, winning two races in a row. Both victories came in wire-to-wire fashion, and while there’s other speed here, this may be the horse they have to catch late; BAREEQA: Has won three of her last five starts, including a win going longer here last month. This is a class test for her, but this barn has had a very strong meet and Lezcano’s ridden well on this turf course. DIRT SELECTIONS: JCS AMERICAN DREAM, LEGALLY BAY, IRON MIZZ.

R9

Mojovation
National Flag
Free Drop Billy

MOJOVATION: Was extremely impressive in his debut, winning in wire-to-wire fashion while being geared down late. The rail draw isn’t ideal, but the unveiling suggested there’s a lot of ability here; NATIONAL FLAG: Broke through last time out after a disappointing debut. That day’s runner-up runs in the sixth, and if that one wins there, it bodes well for this one’s chances in this spot; FREE DROP BILLY: Was a late-running second in the Sanford, and he’s bred to improve as the races get longer. The extra furlong should be a welcome change, and he figures to be going the right direction late.

R10

Lulu’s Pom Pom
Something Joyful
Objective Complete

LULU’S POM POM: Was the subject of a controversial disqualification many didn’t agree with last month (spoiler alert: I didn’t, either). She had a rough trip that day, and a repeat effort could be good enough to win; SOMETHING JOYFUL: Is bred to be a strong turf runner and has worked well ahead of her debut. Joel Rosario doesn’t ride for Jeremiah Englehart much, so it’s noteworthy that he’s signed on here; OBJECTIVE COMPLETE: Probably needed the race last time out, since it was her first effort in about seven months. Improvement is logical second off the bench if she draws into the meet’s final race.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 9/3/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $828.35

Add another issue to the “problems that arise when you’re 3,000 miles away” list. I handicapped today’s card with the weather forecast (lots of rain) in mind. Maybe I’ll be right, maybe not, but most of my top three selections in turf races include at least one horse that would improve if those races were moved to the dirt.

As tough as it was to put those together, it’s even tougher to compile a bankroll section. How can you put bets in when you don’t know what surface the races will be run on? It’s a difficult puzzle to solve, and hopefully, we’ll do alright amidst the challenging circumstances.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Separationofpowers was dueled into defeat in the Spinaway, and our Woodward exacta ran 1-3. As such, we dropped $50.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll cross my fingers, hope the races in question stay on the turf, and focus most of my action on the middle part of the card. I’ll play $8 doubles starting in the sixth with the #1 entry and #2 CAMPAIGN and finishing with #8 PINK SANDS and #11 MOCKERY. Additionally, I’ll take a $5 across-the-board swing in the Prioress with #2 SISTER KAN, just in case the race falls apart given all of the speed that’s signed on.

TOTAL WAGERED: $47

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Blue Atlas, Race 11
Longshot: Sister Kan, Race 10

R1

Sudden Surprise
Smokem’s Charm
Proper Freud

SUDDEN SURPRISE: Is a perfect 3-for-3 at Saratoga, including a win last time out at this level going slightly longer. These connections must be respected, and he’s 2-for-4 over off tracks, so the anticipated rain wouldn’t hurt him if it showed up; SMOKEM’S CHARM: Has won three of his last four at Finger Lakes, with the lone loss coming to a horse that won here earlier in the meet. This barn has a history of success when shipping horses like these to Saratoga; PROPER FREUD: Likely needs to improve to win this, but is worth a look underneath given the likely race shape. He appears to be the lone closer in a race full of early speed.

R2

Way Smart
Dream Passage
La Moneda

WAY SMART: Seems like the horse to beat if this race stays on the turf. She was a good second in her debut for a barn whose runners often need a race to get going, and note the rider switch to Jose Ortiz; DREAM PASSAGE: Seems like the main speed in here and could have a perfect trip on the lead. Additionally, she’s the lone runner in this race with an OK dirt effort, which could be handy if rain hits; LA MONEDA: Made a middle move in her debut and flattened out late. This barn has had a strong meet, and improvement is logical at second asking. DIRT SELECTIONS: DREAM PASSAGE, KAT O MINE, SMART AND SASSY.

R3

Rich Daddy
Turco Bravo
Conquest Bigluck E

RICH DADDY: Hasn’t run a bad race in his last five starts, four of which have come for Eddie Kenneally. He exits an OK optional claimer at Monmouth, and he may be forwardly-placed in an event that lacks early speed; TURCO BRAVO: Cuts way back in distance after running fourth in the Birdstone earlier in the meet. He hasn’t won in a while, but this spot represents class relief, and he’d benefit from an off track; CONQUEST BIGLUCK E: Ships in from Canterbury, so there’s no gauge of how he’ll handle this track. However, he’s 6-for-15 lifetime, and his only start over a wet track was a win against similar foes at Oaklawn Park.

R4

Jump for Joy
Anna Rae
Enterprise Value

JUMP FOR JOY: Ran an OK race in her first effort in more than a year last time out. She likely needed that race, and further progression would make her tough to beat here; ANNA RAE: Hasn’t won in a while, but take a big drop in class after spending most of her career running against much better horses. She didn’t break well last time out, so there’s reason to believe she’ll step up here; ENTERPRISE VALUE: Adds blinkers following a third-place finish at Delaware Park in her first start for this barn. The recent workouts are sharp, and note the presence of Jose Ortiz, who doesn’t ride for this outfit much.

R5

Cashless Society
Unbridledadventure
Woundwithhereyes

CASHLESS SOCIETY: Is 2-for-3 in her career and hasn’t done much wrong. She beat a weaker group last time out, and she’s the one to beat for powerhouse connections if this stays on the turf; UNBRIDLEDADVENTURE: Has to be placed here given the high likelihood of this race being moved to the main track. She cruised home in a similar situation last time out, and her dirt form is miles ahead of the rest of the field; WOUNDWITHHEREYES: Hasn’t won in a while, but is a consistent sort who’s picked up plenty of minor awards on turf and dirt and can’t be thrown out. DIRT SELECTIONS: UNBRIDLEDADVENTURE, WOUNDWITHHEREYES, CHA CHA HEELS.

R6

Campaign
Brown entry
Johnny Action

CAMPAIGN: Fetched $675k at auction last year and has been working very well ahead of his debut. He’s bred to handle either surface, and it wouldn’t stun me if he’s left in even if this race gets moved to dirt; BROWN ENTRY: Both VOTING CONTROL and TRANSFER PRICING have worked well, with the latter drawing in if this race is moved off the turf. Either way, it wouldn’t be shocking if that barn runs 1-2, since Brown also trains my top pick; JOHNNY ACTION: May have needed his debut, where he was one-paced and ran into Untamed Domain. That rival came back to run well in a Grade 3, so it could have been a very live spot. DIRT SELECTIONS: CAMPAIGN, TRANSFER PRICING, LONE SAILOR.

R7

Mockery
Pink Sands
Elenathena

MOCKERY: Merits lots of respect if she draws in off the AE list. She was a late-running third in her debut, and the second-place finisher has since come back to graduate; PINK SANDS: Was a $625k auction purchase last year and has worked to that purchase price. This barn’s horses often need a race, but the presence of Javier Castellano could signal good intentions; ELENATHENA: Has worked well leading up to her unveiling for a barn that hits at a high percentage with first-time starters.

R8

Rubilinda
Repole entry
Kahrumana

RUBILINDA: Has done little wrong in two career starts, winning her debut and running second behind a perfect-trip winner last time out. If this daughter of Frankel steps forward, she should be moving best of all late; REPOLE ENTRY: OVERNEGOTIATE was a good second last time out at this level, while THIRSTFORTHECUP is the lone main-track-only entrant in this field and looms large if the race is moved to the main track; KAHRUMANA: Set a pretty fast pace last time out, yet still hung on for third money. She may not be alone up front, but if she makes an easier lead, she could get brave. DIRT SELECTIONS: THIRSTFORTHECUP, RILEY’S CHOICE, MAJESTIC BONNIE.

R9

Libby’s Tail
Luz Mimi
Kirby’s Penny

LIBBY’S TAIL: Came off the bench running last time out, finishing a close-up second in her first start since January. She’s worked well since then, and further progression is logical second off the layoff; LUZ MIMI: Has found a new level in four starts for Jeremiah Englehart and was third behind my top pick last time out. She could benefit from a wet track, as she won on one two back at Belmont; KIRBY’S PENNY: Has won three of four career dirt starts, although two of those victories came over much weaker fields. Still, she figures to be the main early speed, and she could lead them a long way.

R10

Vertical Oak
Nonna Mela
Sister Kan

VERTICAL OAK: Gets some class relief after chasing American Gal in the Grade 1 Test last time out. Her races before that were sharp, and while she should be prominent early, it helps that she does not necessarily need the lead; NONNA MELA: Rolled home in her 2017 debut, improving to 2-for-2 over this surface. She also won the Grade 2 Adirondack here last year, and these connections merit respect; SISTER KAN: Takes a big step up in class but has crossed the wire in front on four straight occasions. In a race with lots of speed signed on, a closer could pick up some pieces late, and as such, I think this one could get a slice of it at a big price.

R11

Blue Atlas
Bilinski entry
Scoopsie Patato

BLUE ATLAS: Is strictly the one to beat if this race stays on the turf. She found two turns too far last time out and cuts back to her preferred route in the Sunday finale; BILINSKI ENTRY: This is mainly because STONEY BENNETT is the lone main-track-only runner in the field. He’s worked pretty well, and none of the others in here have anything resembling dirt form; SCOOPSIE PATATO: Debuts for a barn that has had plenty of success with first-time starters. Javier Castellano doesn’t ride for this outfit much, so it’s notable that he’s signed on here.