Pink Sheet | Andrew Champagne

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/16/17

Posted on August 15, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $819.75

I got in an interesting discussion online the other day about the current 3-year-old picture and the potential for an unconventional winner of the Champion 3-Year-Old Male Eclipse Award. Long story short, if Always Dreaming wins the Travers, he likely clinches the trophy, while Cloud Computing or Tapwrit would certainly have a significant (but not insurmountable) edge if one of them won the Midsummer Derby.

However, what if a non-winner of a Triple Crown race won the Travers? That opens the door for a horse like Oscar Performance, provided he steps up and beats older horses at the Grade 1 level. Additionally, what happens if a horse like American Anthem or Coal Front wins the Allen Jerkens and follows it up with a win in either the Breeders’ Cup Sprint or the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile? It’s a fascinating scenario, and the next domino falls in a week and a half at Saratoga.

MONDAY’S RESULTS: In short, ugh. Everything Magic lost a photo for second in the opener to a 45-1 shot, and one of the horses we keyed her with in exactas won. It was a painful way to drop $22.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fifth race. #4 MY MR. WONDERFUL ran a big race in his debut last month, which was rained off the turf. I’ll key him in $4 exactas above and below #2 SICILIA SAL, #6 JOE’S SMOKIN GUN, and #10 TEN EYCK, as well as in $3 doubles that use #4 PADEN and #6 ROCKFORD in the sixth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Claiborne entry, Race 7
Longshot: Paden, Race 6

Mutasaawy
Kremlin
Bishop’s Castle

MUTASAAWY: Cruised home last time out when crushing maidens at Parx and seems to have taken to hurdles like a duck to water. This seems like a fairly soft spot to try winners for the first time; KREMLIN: Figures to be the main speed in here. He set the pace earlier this meet against better horses and could be dangerous if he gets loose early on; BISHOP’S CASTLE: Lost the jock last time out at Parx but has run several solid races of late, including a win two back.

Spieth
Powerful Ally
D’ambrosio

SPIETH: Tries two turns for the first time in his second start off the layoff, and the pedigree indicates that this is exactly what he wants. He’s worked well and should be prominent early; POWERFUL ALLY: Was an OK third earlier in the meet in his first start off a freshening. Jose Ortiz riding back is a big plus; D’AMBROSIO: Is another stretching out to two turns with the pedigree to embrace such a route. The rider switch to Castellano is notable, but he finished behind my top pick last time out when that one probably needed the race.

Motion entry
Muqtaser
Fire Away

MOTION ENTRY: Both HOLIDAY STAR and STREET FASHION can win this turf marathon. The former is a multiple graded stakes winner, while the latter exits a stakes race at Delaware Park; MUQTASER: Was brilliantly-ridden last time out by Joe Bravo in a win at this route. Don’t be surprised if Jersey Joe sends him again, especially in such a small field; FIRE AWAY: Loves this distance and may have needed his race earlier this month off a freshening. He was beaten less than two lengths in stakes company that day and merits respect here.

Lady Constance
Jump for Joy
Dubb entry

LADY CONSTANCE: Has not won in a while, but that can be said of many in here, and this filly drops way down in class in this spot. Her lone try at anywhere close to this level was a tough-luck second two back; JUMP FOR JOY: Was a runaway winner last time out at Aqueduct, but that was almost a year and a half ago. Pletcher can get horses ready to run, though, and the fact that she is ineligible to be claimed today could speak volumes about the barn’s intentions; DUBB ENTRY: I prefer EASY WAY OUT, who graduated last time out after burning money twice at Aqueduct. The rider switch is a concern, but her usual effort puts her right there.

My Mr. Wonderful
Ten Eyck
Joe’s Smokin Gun

MY MR. WONDERFUL: Ran well in his debut last month despite the race being rained off the turf. The connections should get the desired route today, and improvement is logical at second asking; TEN EYCK: Doesn’t draw a great post, but is bred up and down to be a very strong turf horse. He’s by Freud and out of a City Zip mare, and he’ll likely be a square price; JOE’S SMOKIN GUN: Was a solid second two back on turf before running in the same race my top pick exits. The connections are cold, but a repeat of the two-back effort could easily get him a piece of this. DIRT SELECTIONS: MY MR. WONDERFUL, STOLEN PISTOL, JOE’S SMOKIN GUN.

Paden
Rockford
Players Group entry

PADEN: Has run well against better horses going longer, one-turn route distances and ships in for a high-percentage barn. There doesn’t appear to be much early speed signed on, so don’t be surprised if he’s forwardly-placed; ROCKFORD: Generally runs the same race every time out and was a solid second earlier this month in his first start for David Jacobson. He’s another with tactical speed, and his best puts him right there; PLAYERS GROUP ENTRY: I prefer FULL SALUTE, who comes back to the dirt after a failed experiment on turf last time out. He won at this distance two back beneath Jose Ortiz, and that pilot returns here.

Claiborne entry
End Play
Fear

CLAIBORNE ENTRY: COMMEND is clearly the horse to beat here. He exits the Grade 2 Highlander at Woodbine, which was won by world-class turf sprinter Green Mask, and this spot represents significant class relief; END PLAY: Was beaten less than a length in a strong race for the level earlier this meet. He’s run well here in the past and generally runs the same race every time out; FEAR: Has won three of his last four and merits a longshot look. The lone defeat in that stretch was in a dirt race, and turf is clearly what he wants.

Mobridge
Damage Control
No Texting

MOBRIDGE: Beat a number of these rivals last time out and comes back at the level here. If there’s a concern, it’s that all three visible wins in the form were at Belmont, but note that he ran fairly well going two turns at Gulfstream earlier this year; DAMAGE CONTROL: Was beaten a length by my top pick last time out and didn’t have much pace to close into that day. If someone goes with that horse early, it could set up for this one; NO TEXTING: Was fourth in that common race, but was inexplicably rated that day after showing ample early speed in his previous six starts. Given that fact, the rider switch is no shock.

Sly Beauty
March X Press
Fairyland

SLY BEAUTY: Ran into runaway Schuylerville winner Dream It Is in her debut and jogged last time out. This barn is starting to turn strong efforts into wins, and this one could have plenty of talent; MARCH X PRESS: Closed like a freight train to win her debut earlier in the meet at this route. There should certainly be plenty of early speed in front of her; FAIRYLAND: Exits a Group 3 at Royal Ascot, and the blinkers come back on. If there’s a concern here, it’s the rail draw, which has not been kind in turf sprints this meet.

R10

Borsa Vento
Irst
Britain

BORSA VENTO: Drops way down in class, and given the horrible trip, his last race is a throwout. He’s run well at this distance against better in the past, and I’ll give him another shot; IRST: Looked like a promising horse when second here last summer behind an eventual Grade 3 winner, but he hasn’t moved forward since then. The class drop should certainly help, as would a pace battle up front; BRITAIN: Has shown some zip since dropping to the maiden claiming ranks, but was a distant fourth at this level earlier in the meet. Still, he merits respect given the powerful trainer/jockey combination.

THE DARK DAY FILES: War Stories

Posted on August 14, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

The idea for this installment of “The Dark Day Files,” admittedly, came partially from the world of professional wrestling. Often, when a wrestler of considerable renown isn’t contracted to a particular company, he or she will do what’s known as a “shoot interview” and provide some background on his or her experiences, as well as tell stories and shed some light on stuff fans and followers may not be aware of.

It first occurred to me Sunday that I had enough material to start telling stories. I was working from The Daily Racing Form’s newest temporary bureau, a Starbucks in Santa Monica, ahead of an attempt at the Los Angeles trivia championships, where the winning team splits $1,000 (spoiler alert: we didn’t win, but we led at the halfway point and finished a respectable 11th of 32 finalists). In and of itself, this coffee shop just off the beach could provide the setting for the 2017 answer to Billy Joel’s “Scenes from an Italian Restaurant” given the eclectic mix of people coming and going (the great Hunter S. Thompson would have had a field day psychoanalyzing some of these people!).

However, my epiphany came when an older woman asked if she could sit down at my table so as to plug her laptop in to charge. I obliged, and we started talking. She asked what company I worked for, I answered honestly…and it turned out that this woman, who I had never met or heard of before, had freelanced for my current employer many years prior.

I was floored. What are the odds of such a chance encounter happening in a random coffee shop 3,000 miles away from the company’s headquarters? Seriously, if there’s a mathematician out there that has nothing better to do, I’d love for someone to try to calculate it.

Ultimately, I realized that I’ve been lucky enough to do way more cool stuff that can be claimed as “work” than any person should be allowed to experience. Of course, spending multiple summers at Saratoga is near the top of that list, but I was on-site at the 2010 Winter Olympics in what doubled as my first taste of post-college employment. I did a radio broadcast of an NCAA men’s lacrosse tournament game at the Carrier Dome, one of the best venues for the sport anywhere in the world. I shared a press box with fellow Ithaca College alum Karl Ravech during regional play of the 2010 Little League World Series. I’ve gotten to meet world-renowned members of the sports world like Warren Moon and Jim Boeheim, as well as a lot of athletes you’ve never heard of, but would do well to know.

This column tells a few fun stories that I think you’ll like. If the reaction is there, I’d be happy to try to do it again in a few weeks. Got a question? Got something you think I should tackle? Write it in. I see everything that comes in, and if I can make this stuff more enjoyable for you to read, that’s a win for me.

With that said, here we go!

– – – – –

ERROR-GATE

Back in the spring of 2013, a colleague of mine at The Saratogian went to cover a high school baseball game featuring the paper’s hometown team. The Saratoga Springs Blue Streaks’ best player was Alex Chandler, who went on to play for four years at St. Rose, a Division II college, following his graduation. This particular game, though, was not Alex’s finest hour. He committed four errors, and my colleague did his job by writing about it in a truthful, honest fashion. The writer didn’t go out of his way to humiliate the kid, but he did note the facts, since these misplays were pivotal points in the game.

When the athletic department at the school saw the story, certain officials went ballistic. They claimed that the story should have said the team made four errors, not one particular player. Everyone at the paper thought that rationale was ridiculous, as it’s the job of a sportswriter to accurately tell the story of a game’s events. Eventually, all parties involved got over it, or, more accurately, got tired of screaming at one another and agreed to stop. The truce put an end to that matter…or so I thought.

A few months later, I covered a summer league game featuring the Saratoga Stampede, a local American Legion team that featured many of the same kids that were on the Saratoga Springs High School team. Their coach that year was Eric Thompson, an assistant at Skidmore College that I had a great relationship with thanks to many basketball games spent with him working the table and me not being willing or able to shut up (shout out to Skidmore SID Bill Jones, who will gladly verify that fact if asked!).

I got to the field, shook Eric’s hand, and talked with him for several minutes, all the while noticing several teenagers giving me the dreaded stink-eye (important note: Alex Chandler was not in attendance that night). I thought it was curious, but I hadn’t done anything to those kids. After all, I was the lacrosse writer that spring and didn’t cover a single inning of high school baseball. For that reason, I didn’t sweat it as I walked to the visitor’s dugout to get their lineup.

As I walked back the other way to my seat in the bleachers, though, I heard Eric lay into several of his players, and I will never forget what he said or how he said it.

“IF DEREK JETER COMMITTED FOUR ERRORS IN A GAME, DO YOU REALLY THINK THE NEW YORK POST WOULD SAY THE YANKEES COMMITTED FOUR ERRORS?!?!?!”

It was all I could do to not burst out laughing as the kids stood there, positively shell-shocked by what they were hearing. I don’t even know if Eric knew how much delight I took in hearing that, but he certainly knows now. Eric: Find some way to get Skidmore a West Coast swing!

– – – – –

THE BEST HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAME I’VE EVER SEEN, AND THE BEST DEADLINE-DRIVEN WRITING I’VE EVER DONE

Two very small towns between the New York State Northway and the New York-Vermont border each house high school football teams that were competitive at a state-wide level when I wrote for The Saratogian. In 2012, they came together for a night I’ll never forget.

Cambridge was one of the top-ranked Class D football teams in the state. They were experienced, had tons of athleticism for a school that small, and had an aggressive coach that didn’t hesitate to use said athleticism against overmatched foes. Their rival, Greenwich, didn’t necessarily have the speed or quickness to contend with them, but what they did have was running back John Barnes.

You know the old football adage about certain coaches having three plays: Run left, run right, run up the middle? This game was that mantra, come to life. John Barnes carried the football 46 times for 377 yards that night, an average of more than eight yards per carry (as if that wasn’t enough, he also added one catch for 30 yards). However, Cambridge, which played from behind for most of the night, tied the game in the fourth quarter, stuffed Barnes at the goal line on the last play of regulation, and won in overtime on the fourth touchdown run of the contest by that team’s own star running back, Matt Parmenter. Side note: Only later did I find out that Barnes had lost his grandmother shortly before the game, which added to the stream of tears he talked to me through. To his everlasting credit, when an assistant coach saw him crying and tried to end the interview early, Barnes waved him off and finished talking to me.

The game started at 7 p.m., and it was over at around 10. By the time I had gotten my interviews and moved to a place where I could write the recap, it was shortly after 10:30. The Saratogian’s hard deadline was 11, and the closest thing I had to an office was the front seat of my 2007 Chevy Impala.

I wrote like a madman, trying to convey the emotions of what had happened along with the enormity of the performance John Barnes put together in the loss and how this one game sent both programs on opposite paths for the rest of the season. Twenty minutes later (at about 10:53), I wound up with what I still consider to be the best piece of deadline-driven journalism I’ve ever written. If you’re so inclined, you can read it here.

Oh, and if any of you know John Barnes, thank him for me, would you?

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BREAKING UP A ROAD TRIP LIKE A DEGENERATE

Back in 2010, I, like every other college student who graduated that year, was beating the pavement looking for work relevant to the field I was in. The economy was a mess, and amidst many stories I could tell about my time looking for a job (there’s no shortage of them, and they’ll pop up whenever I write this stuff), I’ll focus on one a lot of you will get a kick out of.

I had secured an in-person interview for a news reporter position at a radio station in Charleston, West Virginia. This may not be tops on your list of vacation destinations, but for a recently-graduated Television-Radio major at Ithaca College, this was a big deal. According to recent Nielsen data, it’s the 70th-biggest media market in the United States, and it’s not often that a new college graduate breaks in, on the air, in a top-100 market.

I packed a bag, drove my car for the better part of 12 hours (it should’ve only taken 10 from New York’s Hudson Valley, but traffic was heavy through Pennsylvania), and arrived at a Best Western down the road from the station. My interview the next day went well (or so I thought), and after stopping at another motel near the West Virginia-Maryland border, I set about driving the rest of the way home.

You know the feeling you can get when you’ve been in a car for 18 hours over a three-day period? If it could be described in words, it would say, “I don’t care where I stop, BUT I NEED TO GET OUT OF THIS CAR!!!” That’s how I felt going through central Pennsylvania with no company but the car radio, so I started looking for a spot to pull over. All I was looking for was a rest stop with a picnic table and a vending machine, just a place where I could park the car for 20 minutes or so, breathe in some fresh air, stretch my legs, and clear my head.

Imagine my shock when I started seeing signs for Penn National.

I had never been to Penn National, and given that the day I rolled through was a dark day, I would not be seeing any racing there. What I did take in, in vivid detail, were the bright lights, loud sounds, and pretty colors that could only be associated with one thing: A casino.

I strolled in and found a $15 blackjack table, which at the time was the lowest-limit game they spread on the casino floor. To this day, I don’t understand why I sat down and bought $100 in chips. Even now, when I go to Vegas, I usually play $5 blackjack. I will occasionally play $10 blackjack if the structure is agreeable or I find a good “blackjack switch” game (you play two hands and can switch the top cards, and in return, blackjacks pay even-money and all dealer 22’s are pushes; at this point, my father is probably shaking his head just reading my description). That said, even in a comfortable financial state, I don’t touch $15 blackjack.

You probably think this is setting up for me to get killed, but in a plot twist, the gambling gods were kind to me. I played just one shoe, killed the 20 minutes I wanted to kill, and walked away with enough of a profit to fill my gas tank a few hours later in the middle of nowhere. Plenty of eye-rolling ensued when I told my parents about the unplanned pit stop later that night!

And no, I didn’t get the job. They were nice people, and it makes for a heck of a “what-if,” but ultimately, I firmly believe that I got to where I’m supposed to be…which seems like as good a spot as any to end this week’s column.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/14/17

Posted on August 13, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $841.75

I’ve been fortunate enough to work from a lot of cool places in my professional career, including Saratoga (of course), a renewal of the Winter Olympics, the Little League World Series, and several other world-renowned locales. However, some of the best stories I’ve got have come about while working from, shall we say, unconventional places. I’ll tell some of those stories, including some that feature places and people in upstate New York, in this week’s edition of “The Dark Day Files,” which will be online at AndrewChampagne.com Monday night.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: The bane of a win-place player’s existence reared its head, as best bet Dwizard ran pretty well in the fifth but had to settle for third. We dropped $40.

MONDAY’S PLAY: I’ll take a stand in the opener with a middle-priced horse that I think is well-meant. That’s #4 EVERYTHING MAGIC, whose best effort would make her tough to beat. I’ll put $5 to win and place on her, and key her in $3 exactas above and below the two likely betting choices, #1 CHAMPAGNE RUBY and #6 NON FINISCE MAI.

TOTAL WAGERED: $22

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Literata, Race 8
Longshot: Eucalyptus, Race 9

Everything Magic
Champagne Ruby
Non Finisce Mai

EVERYTHING MAGIC: Reeled off three wins in a row not too long ago and drops down in class. Her record looks much better if you toss out the off-track efforts, and we may get a price; CHAMPAGNE RUBY: Routed foes at this level earlier in the meet and certainly merits respect. A repeat effort probably wins this, but she was aided by a favorable pace setup (and possibly the track condition); NON FINISCE MAI: Drops way down in class in an effort to find her first win since March of last year. She’s run well in each of her last two starts and should be prominent early.

Vigor
Spanker
Hollywood Royal

VIGOR: Is hamstrung by the rail draw but has the experience and early speed to overcome it. She was a solid third behind a well-meant Chad Brown runner when last seen, and the recent bullet workout is a plus; SPANKER: Makes her 3-year-old debut after a 2-year-old campaign that reflected the confidence of the connections. She tried stakes company twice and was second in such a spot at Presque Isle; HOLLYWOOD ROYAL: Fetched $250k at auction and debuts following a series of strong workouts. She’s a half to Grade 2-placed sprinter Laurie’s Rocket, so she’s got a right to show some zip in her unveiling. DIRT SELECTIONS: SAME.

Baby Bear’s Soup
Holding Aces
Happy Farm

BABY BEAR’S SOUP: Comes in off a win downstate and won here last year. When he’s right, he’s very good, and a repeat of his most recent effort would make him the one to beat; HOLDING ACES: Broke through earlier this month when crushing a weaker group. He dueled through fast fractions that day, and while a bounce is possible, it’s also possible that this 5-year-old is figuring things out; HAPPY FARM: Has won two in a row and steps up out of the claiming ranks to run here. I’m not sure what he beat last time out, but he looked good doing it.

Pocket Book
Gidu
Paris Cruise

POCKET BOOK: Did everything but win in her debut, when she set very fast fractions and got nailed in the final strides. She could easily improve at second asking, and if she does, she could lead every step of the way; GIDU: Is the latest son of Frankel to debut here, and the bottom-side pedigree is solid as well. He’s a half to Grade 3 winner Marbre Rose, and his dam is a half to Grade 1 winner Zoftig, so there’s plenty of class in this one’s blood; PARIS CRUISE: Was a solid second in her debut at Keeneland and tries turf for the first time here. She’s worked well of late, and this barn must be respected. DIRT SELECTIONS: PARIS CRUISE, SNAPPER SINCLAIR, BLUE LUTE.

Novique
She’s Stunning
Milaya

NOVIQUE: Is a perfect 2-for-2 at this seven-furlong distance and makes her second start off a long layoff. Her tactical speed is a plus, as is the switch to jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr.; SHE’S STUNNING: Drops way down in class following a strange trip at Parx where she was extremely wide throughout. She was beaten less than two lengths, and she’s certainly eligible to improve with a better trip; MILAYA: Hasn’t won in a while, but spent most of last year running against stakes company and was a good second last time out on turf. Her experience going longer than this tricky distance should help her.

Win With Pride
New Jersey John
Any Questions

WIN WITH PRIDE: Was briefly on the Kentucky Derby trail and drops in for a tag for the first time. These connections are aggressive, so I don’t question the drop too much, and the recent turf efforts at Monmouth were solid; NEW JERSEY JOHN: Closed with a rush in his turf debut to finish fourth, beaten less than a length. All three runners in front of him won at next asking, and Linda Rice is extremely strong with horses stretching out in distance; ANY QUESTIONS: Makes his first start for trainer Jeremiah Englehart after a few OK runs downstate. Runhappy’s little brother certainly fits here on his best day. DIRT SELECTIONS: WIN WITH PRIDE, NEW JERSEY JOHN, SURTAP.

Heavenly Score
Battlement
Bigkat and Camille

HEAVENLY SCORE: Was a close-up fourth in a stakes race earlier in the meet behind a pretty sharp sprinter. This is a much softer spot, and she could sit a perfect trip on or near the pace; BATTLEMENT: Has not won in more than a year, but ran a stellar race in defeat last time out at Belmont. The faster they go early, the better this filly figures to finish; BIGKAT AND CAMILLE: Was beaten just a neck at this level and route earlier in the meet and will almost certainly be a price. A repeat effort, though, could get her a minor award and shake up the exotics. DIRT SELECTIONS: HEAVENLY SCORE, ANNATHELA, BATTLEMENT.

Literata
Jcs American Dream
Jc’s Shooting Star

LITERATA: Won a confidence-builder last time out at Finger Lakes. She went 0-for-2 here last year, but unlike many in here, she seems to be in her best form and not trending downward; JCS AMERICAN DREAM: Was third in a decent allowance race at Monmouth and generally seems to run the same race every time out. That type of effort is almost certainly good enough for a check; JC’S SHOOTING STAR: May be past her peak, but loves Saratoga. She was third in this race last year and cannot be ignored.

Perro Rojo (MTO)
River of Dreams
Eucalyptus

RIVER OF DREAMS: Simply did not want to go 11 furlongs last time out, so draw a line through that race. His efforts going this kind of distance are solid, and it’s encouraging that Jose Lezcano rides back; EUCALYPTUS: Has not run in more than a year, but ran into some very good horses a year ago. This is a much softer spot, and that kind of form could be good enough to win this; MUSICAL AMERICA: Is another that didn’t want to go three turns last time out. He hasn’t won in a while, but the class drop could wake him up. DIRT SELECTIONS: PERRO ROJO, KARMA DELIGHT, HONOR THY FATHER.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/13/17

Posted on August 12, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $881.75

With the conclusion of Saturday’s card, half of the Saratoga meet is in the books. We’ve seen a lot in the first 20 cards, including plenty of precocious 2-year-olds (such as yesterday’s Adirondack winner, Pure Silver), a tremendous performance from Gun Runner in the Whitney, and the emergence of Good Samaritan as a major player in the 3-year-old division. The best thing about Saratoga, though, is that it only gets better as the days go by.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Azar never threatened in the fifth, and since he was the key horse, our plays fizzled out. We dropped $30.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on a first-time starter that has every right to be an exceptional horse. That’s #3 DWIZARD in the fifth race. He’s out of a dam that has produced two Grade 1-winning sprinters, and the worktab says this horse may be ready to run at first asking. I’m not sure we’ll get the 7/2 morning line price, but I’ll put $20 to win and place on him in hopes that we do.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Dwizard, Race 5
Longshot: Itsinthestars, Race 9

Friend of Liberty
Makealittlelove
Leah’s Dream

FRIEND OF LIBERTY: Drops way down in class for a barn that’s gotten pretty aggressive of late at this meet. She was 3-1 in a stakes race two back, and her best race beats these; MAKEALITTLELOVE: Should get an easier setup here after dueling for the lead in a race that drew a full field earlier in the meet. She’s probably the main early speed; LEAH’S DREAM: Found the starter allowance ranks too tough last time out but cruised home against maiden claimers two back. She should be prominent early.

City Day (MTO)
Miss Mo Mentum
Kingdom’s Queen

MISS MO MENTUM: Was a strong second to a well-meant runner in her turf debut earlier in the meet. This barn has struggled to find the winner’s circle, but the second and third-place finishes tell you their runners are firing; KINGDOM’S QUEEN: Is bred up and down for turf. Her dam was a Grade 3 winner, and said dam has already thrown another graded stakes winner; CRITIQUE: Fetched $155k at auction last year, and these connections must be respected. The question is, does she want turf? DIRT SELECTIONS: CITY DAY, NIGHT OWL, LYNAH RINK.

C Islandsurprise
Maddizaskar
Kelsocait

C ISLANDSURPRISE: Looks much better if you draw a line through the Fair Grounds races four and five back. This barn excels with new acquisitions and can be sneaky up here; MADDIZASKAR: Won a stakes race earlier this year at Aqueduct and has four top-two finishes in six career dirt starts. A return to her winter/spring form would make her formidable; KELSOCAIT: Has not won in a while, but has also been running against much better horses. She was fourth in a Grade 3 three back and could be worth a look in a race I found very difficult to handicap.

Pletcher entry
Maker entry
Halloween Horror

PLETCHER ENTRY: CARIBBEAN looks like the one to beat if this stays on the turf, while DECORATED SOLDIER drops way down in class and has been gelded since his last effort; MAKER ENTRY: I prefer DJULPAN, who has woken up since being stretched out on the turf. He should be prominent early, and there doesn’t seem to be much other early speed signed on; HALLOWEEN HORROR: Was third behind Voodoo Song last out, and that one came right back to win another turf race just a few days later. This barn has done very well this meet, and this gelding may be a bit of a price. DIRT SELECTIONS: DECORATED SOLDIER, CONTROL GROUP, DJULPAN.

Dwizard
My Boy Tate
Quai Voltaire

DWIZARD: Is out of a dam that’s produced Grade 1 winners Paulassilverlining and Dads Caps, which means he has every right to be a top-notch sprinter. The workouts indicate he’s ready to run, and this doesn’t seem like a very tough spot; MY BOY TATE: Hasn’t been seen since April, but has run well in three starts to date. He just missed two back, and of the ones that have run before, he seems the most imposing; QUAI VOLTAIRE: Is 0-for-12, but has hit the board seven times, including three straight runner-up finishes coming into this event.

Swayed
Tiffanys Freud
Victorias Fire

SWAYED: Was part of a four-horse photo finish earlier in the meet. She may have needed that race off a brief freshening, and she’d benefit from a fast pace given her late-running style; TIFFANYS FREUD: Was also involved in that photo and seems to have found her form in her last two starts. She also ran well at this route last year, and she may be a price; VICTORIAS FIRE: Ships in after winning two in a row in wire-to-wire fashion. Turf is an unknown, but she did run well on a synthetic track last time out. DIRT SELECTIONS: VICTORIAS FIRE, ZIPPITY ZOOM, SWAYED.

Thirstforthecup (MTO)
Galileo’s Song
Pas de Soucis

GALILEO’S SONG: Makes her 2017 debut here after a strong 2016 campaign. She just missed in a Grade 3 two back, and if she’s ready to run, this race is hers to lose; PAS DE SOUCIS: Runs in North America for the first time and adds Lasix for powerhouse connections. She won a stakes race in France last year, so there’s no doubt about her talent; SPIGA: Took a step forward last time out and was third behind a real runner two back. Continued improvement would make her a formidable foe. DIRT SELECTIONS: THIRSTFORTHECUP, NOW POWER, NOT TAKEN.

Copper Bullet
Barry Lee
Hollywood Star

COPPER BULLET: Was second in a Grade 3 to one of the top 2-year-old males in the country last time out. He’s got plenty of speed, and the recent bullet workout over the training track inspires confidence; BARRY LEE: Looked the part of a $380k auction purchase in his debut, where he cruised home at Laurel Park. This barn has meant business when shipping up here; HOLLYWOOD STAR: Rated and won at first asking, which isn’t common for 2-year-olds to do. The third-place finisher that day came back to win at next asking.

Noble Freud
Itsinthestars
First Appeal

NOBLE FREUD: Was third to eventual Test winner American Gal in a Grade 3 when last seem. Sire Freud’s progeny usually take to the turf, and if she does, she’ll be extremely tough to beat; ITSINTHESTARS: Had a rough trip earlier in the meet. She was wide throughout and only beaten a neck that day, and she adds blinkers here; FIRST APPEAL: Is 3-for-3 since going to the Linda Rice barn and beat starter allowance foes earlier in the meet. The faster they go early, the more prominent this one should be late. DIRT SELECTIONS: NOBLE FREUD, PALLADIAN BRIDGE, ANDROMEDA’S RISK.

R10

Itsabigboy (MTO)
Brown entry
Wingman

BROWN ENTRY: DATA ROOM is definitely the horse to beat dropping in class. His best races have come going two turns, and that’s the route he gets in the Sunday finale; WINGMAN: Couldn’t stay with a runaway winner at the $75k level last time out, but should find this company more to his liking. The post position isn’t ideal, but he’s talented enough to win on his best day; STRONG SIDE: Wanted no part of a marathon distance last time out. His races going more conventional routes haven’t been bad, and he runs for a tag for the first time. DIRT SELECTIONS: ITSABIGBOY, STRONG SIDE, HOLLAND ROAD.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/12/17

Posted on August 11, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $911.75

Longtime readers of The Saratogian will remember that I was a full-time sportswriter there for about a year and a half. Among the best perks of the job was where the office was. The front steps of that brick building on Lake Avenue were a full pitching wedge or less away from The Parting Glass, Gaffney’s, D’Andrea’s, and a number of other fun places, as well as the police station (which the news department certainly found handy!).

I’m not criticizing the decision to move, as the rationale for it makes sense. With that in mind, though, it was pretty tough to leave that building for the last time in October of 2013 after filing the recap of a Saratoga Springs-Shenendehowa football game. I imagine the friends and colleagues I have that work for The Saratogian felt similarly this week.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: We got blanked after neither of our key horses in doubles won (although longshot of the day Jewel Heist ran a huge race in defeat). As such, we dropped $24.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fifth race, which houses my best bet of the day. That’s #4 AZAR, and I’ll key him in $5 exactas above and below #9 MADE IN DETROIT and #10 ITALIAN CHARM. I’ll also single him in $5 doubles that start in the fifth and use #3 CHANNEL CAT and #8 SPORTSWEAR in the sixth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Azar, Race 5
Longshot: Promotional, Race 8

Scarly Charly
Will Did It
At Guard

SCARLY CHARLY: Takes a colossal drop in class, but if he’s anywhere close to his best, he’s strictly the one to beat. The recent bullet drill inspires confidence, and he ran well here twice a year ago; WILL DID IT: Makes his first start for Gary Gullo, who excels with new acquisitions. He hasn’t won in a while, but there’s some speed signed on and he’ll be running well late; AT GUARD: Beat weaker foes earlier in the meet and makes his first start for a new barn. The rail draw isn’t ideal, but a repeat performance may be good enough to win.

Airtouch
Base Command
Indimaaj

AIRTOUCH: Fetched $450k at auction last summer, and for good reason. This dam threw Grade 1 winner Sweet Loretta, and this son of Tapit has been working very well ahead of his unveiling; BASE COMMAND: Made up a lot of ground in his debut, rallying from 11 lengths back to be beaten less than a length. This barn’s runners tend to improve with experience, and the added distance should be a plus; INDIMAAJ: Is by Tapit and out of a Grade 1 winner that’s produced a Grade 1 winner. He’s worked steadily, and while this barn’s runners tend to benefit from experience, it wouldn’t be shocking if he was ready to run right away.

Killybegs Captain (MTO)
Dr. Edgar
Driven by Thunder

DR. EDGAR: Stretches out on turf for the first time, which is unusual given his pedigree. He’s never been better than he is right now, and he merits my top pick in a confusing race with many horses stretching out; DRIVEN BY THUNDER: Ran well in his turf debut last time out. His best race came at a challenging, seven-furlong distance, so he could take to the distance; SIX SHILLINGS: Was a good second earlier in the meet going shorter. It’s unclear if he wants this sort of distance, but class-wise, he fits. DIRT SELECTIONS: KILLYBEGS CAPTAIN, DRIVEN BY THUNDER, PIONEER SPIRIT.

Pure Silver
Limited View
Sly Roxy

PURE SILVER: Has done nothing wrong in two starts, including a stakes win last time out. The rail draw is a concern, but she should have enough speed to overcome it; LIMITED VIEW: Scratched from the Schuylerville due to pre-race antics, but that may have been a blessing in disguise, as the winner freaked. This seems like a softer spot, provided she holds it together; SLY ROXY: Ran away with an off-the-turf race earlier in the meet. It’s unclear how strong that race was, but she’s bred to be a good one and could have untapped potential.

Azar
Old Upstart (MTO)
Italian Charm

AZAR: Spent most of 2016 against top-class competition, so it’s jarring to see him in for a $25k tag. Anything close to his best would make him very difficult to beat; ITALIAN CHARM: Makes his first start since March and has been gelded since his last outing. He reeled off three wins in a row last year and finished just two lengths behind eventual Grade 1 winner American Patriot two back; MADE IN DETROIT: Turned heads with a wire-to-wire romp downstate back in June. He had a dream trip that day, and these are deeper waters, but he seems like the main speed. DIRT SELECTIONS: AZAR, OLD UPSTART, RICH DADDY.

Variant Perception (MTO)
Sportswear
Channel Cat

SPORTSWEAR: Couldn’t possibly be bred any better. He’s by the undefeated Frankel, out of a Group 1 winner, and gets the two-turn turf route his pedigree screams for; CHANNEL CAT: Was a close second in his debut, which came last month at Gulfstream going much shorter. He’s bred up and down for more distance, and he should improve given that he gets it; HAVE AT IT: Is by Kitten’s Joy and out of a multiple Grade 3 winner. He’s worked consistently ahead of his debut. DIRT SELECTIONS: VARIANT PERCEPTION, SUPER SERMON, PETE MARWICK.

Coltandmississippi
Wyatt’s Town
Song of the Nile

COLTANDMISSISSIPPI: Sold for $400k back in 2015 and has a strong series of five-furlong drills ahead of his debut. This is a tough distance to debut at, but the work tab tells the story of a horse who may want this trip; WYATT’S TOWN: Was third in his debut, but didn’t have the best of experiences that day. Improvement is logical at second asking, especially for a barn whose horses often improve with seasoning; SONG OF THE NILE: Fetched $575k last year at auction and has worked like a promising horse. This barn’s first-time starters don’t usually win, but he can’t be ignored in what looks like a loaded race.

Off Limits
Rachel’s Temper (MTO)
Promotional

OFF LIMITS: Burned plenty of money in 2016, but seems to have figured things out in two 2017 starts. She was a good second in a stakes race last time out, and this seems like a much softer spot; PROMOTIONAL: Won here last year and has been facing top-class horses since then. She may want longer, and this may be a prep race, but if she’s right, she’s a contender at a price; ALL IN FUN: Hasn’t won in a while, but is another that’s been running against substantially better horses. She won here last year, and this barn merits respect. DIRT SELECTIONS: PUCA, RACHEL’S TEMPER, ALL IN FUN.

Gift Box
Cerro
Lewys Vaporizer

GIFT BOX: Makes his 2017 debut and looks to pick up where he left off. He was fourth in the Travers behind Arrogate, and while this distance isn’t ideal, his talent may be enough to get him home; CERRO: Has won three of his last four and ran a big race last time out at Churchill Downs. John Velazquez rides, and it’s safe to assume his new owner claimed him with Saratoga in mind; LEWYS VAPORIZER: Is a proven sprinter with top-end early speed. His race here last year was forgettable, but his best effort would make him the one to catch turning for home.

R10

Disco Partner
Time Test
American Patriot

DISCO PARTNER: Has reeled off three wins in a row, including a record-setting performance going six furlongs and a subsequent romp at a mile. He’s never been better than he is right now; TIME TEST: Cuts back in distance after two second-place finishes downstate. He won a Group 2 at this distance overseas, but the question is, is he past his peak?; AMERICAN PATRIOT: Flopped at Royal Ascot but won a Grade 1 at Keeneland two back over a top-class field. He appears ready to run, and his best race would make him a player in this top-class event.

R11

Danny’s Rush
Source Control
Grand Valour

DANNY’S RUSH: Cuts back in distance after being badly beaten going much longer. His best races have come going short on turf, and a repeat of his effort two back (which came against better horses) could win this; SOURCE CONTROL: Rallied to be second at this level last time out at Belmont. The pace was fast that day, but with this large field, such a scenario could easily repeat itself; GRAND VALOUR: Is a bit of an unknown since he’s making his career debut, but this barn can get first-time starters ready, and Javier Castellano signing on is a big plus. DIRT SELECTIONS: DAB, QUAI VOLTAIRE, GREAT BLAKE.