Play of the Day

NFL Picks, Plays, and Daily Fantasy: Nov. 15, 2020 (Week 10)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Last week: 1-3
2020 season: 21-13-2 (61.8%)

All lines and totals are courtesy of America’s Line. All DFS costs are courtesy of DraftKings.

Packers -13.5 over Jaguars

Jacksonville nearly pulled off a sizable upset last week against Houston. The Jaguars played hard and had a chance to tie with a two-point conversion, but the attempt failed and the Texans survived. This week, however, holds a much taller task for the Jags, who will once again trot out backup quarterback Jake Luton against the 6-2 Packers at Lambeau Field.

The half-point here is crucial. If this was a 14-point spread, it would look significantly less appetizing. However, in a world where a 28-14, “not as close as it looked” victory is a win for Green Bay backers, I want as much of Gang Green as I can get.

Chargers/Dolphins: OVER 48.5

By and large, I thought the totals were pretty spot-on this week. This one, however, seems a few points low. Justin Herbert may be the best offensive rookie in football, and the Dolphins have shown they’re a competent offensive squad with a special teams unit that can make big plays.

This hits me as a 28-24 sort of game, with both defenses showing up but not being totally immune to big plays. I’m looking forward to seeing two rookie quarterbacks in action, and I’m rooting for them to put up plenty of points.

Ravens -7 over Patriots

This line confuses me. I know the Baltimore offense has been inconsistent, but the Patriots nearly lost to the bottom-feeding Jets on Monday Night Football and will be coming in on a short week. Perhaps the presence of Bill Belichick is keeping this line tighter than it should be, but whatever the case is, I feel like Baltimore should be a double-digit favorite.

The Patriots…are simply not good. The shine’s come off of Cam Newton, who has no wide receiving corps to work with, and while the defense hasn’t been awful, it also hasn’t been good enough to completely stop opposing playmakers. I think Baltimore wins and wins comfortably, far more comfortably than the seven-point spread would suggest.

Bears +3 over Vikings

Initially, I wanted no part of this game. I thought Chicago giving two, as the Bears were when wagering opened, was a decent line. However, with news that David Montgomery won’t suit up, the line has shifted five points, and I think that’s an overcorrection.

Yes, Chicago losing Montgomery will hurt. However, while the Vikings have won two in a row, it’s not like they were overwhelming in last week’s win over the Lions. The Bears, meanwhile, have been competitive against far better squads the last two weeks and should relish the class relief. I can’t pass up the chance to get three with the Bears here, and Chicago’s money line (+$160 as of this writing) wouldn’t be the worst bet in the world, either.

DAILY FANTASY PLAYERS TO WATCH

QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT ($6,200)
WR Diontae Johnson, PIT ($5,200)
TE Eric Ebron, PIT ($4,400)

The undefeated Steelers face the Bengals, whose secondary has been ravaged by injuries and COVID-19. With that in mind, I think Sunday will be a great day for the Pittsburgh aerial attack, and that bodes well for this mini-stack. Johnson and Ebron are also pretty low-investment guys this week, which opens room in the budget for other playmakers.

WR Travis Fulgham, PHI ($6,400)

Fulgham has been a revelation for the Eagles, who moreso resemble a MASH unit than a football team. A sixth-round pick in 2019, he’s seen 41 targets the past four weeks and has found the end zone three times.

Philadelphia gets the woeful Giants on Sunday. Between his apparent talent and his likely volume, I like his chances at another big day. $6,400 isn’t a bargain price tag, but here you get a #1 wide receiver for high-end #2 money.

RB Duke Johnson, HOU ($5,000)

One of my players to watch last week, David Johnson, left the game early with an injury, which opened the door for Houston’s OTHER D. Johnson to shine. Duke will once again be the featured back this week in a game at Cleveland where heavy winds could keep the ball on the ground for most of the afternoon.

Duke doesn’t have the highest ceiling, and he managed just 73 yards on 20 touches a week ago. However, he did find the end zone, and with his likely workload, I need to buy low. A similar output Sunday would make him a bargain. Improvement after a week with the first-team offense would make him a steal.

NFL Picks, Plays, and Daily Fantasy: Nov. 1, 2020 (Week Eight)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

I know you’re probably here for football, but I need to give a few cheap plugs for stuff I’ll be doing this week. We’re less than a week from the Breeders’ Cup, and I’m fortunate to be in a position where I can create some cool content and help others do the same.

We’ll be doing two episodes of “Champagne and J.D.” this week. Ren Carothers will join us Wednesday to preview the Friday slate, while Nick Hines will return for his second appearance to discuss the Saturday program. I’m proud to call both Ren and Nick friends of mine, and I’ve learned a great deal from them. You won’t want to miss this, so head to the “Champagne and J.D.” YouTube channel and hit the “subscribe” button.

I’ll also be part of Gino Buccola’s Murderer’s Row-ish lineup of guests on his podcast, “That’s What G Said.” Darin Zoccali and I will join Gino to talk about the Turf and Filly and Mare Turf, and given some of our past episodes where we’ve dived into fields and wagering strategies, this’ll be even more good stuff for you to sink your teeth into ahead of racing’s year-end championship event.

Anyway, on to the week eight slate of NFL picks, plays, and daily fantasy players to watch! Last week was another good one, as a 3-1 mark moved me to 19-8-1 on the season. As usual, point spreads and totals are courtesy of America’s Line, and daily fantasy costs are courtesy of DraftKings. Let’s get to it!

PICKS/PLAYS

Titans/Bengals: OVER 51

I’m really looking forward to watching this one, for a lot of reasons. These are two offenses that can put up a lot of points, and I think the public might be sleeping on that fact just a bit. The total opened at 52.5 and has actually drifted down a bit, which surprises me.

The Titans did just record their first loss of the season against Pittsburgh, but they still put up 24 points against a top-tier defense. Meanwhile, the Bengals have gone over the total in three of their last four games and have positively crushed the number each of the last two weeks. They’ll likely be playing from behind, and I think that could set things up for a shootout (more on that in the DFS section).

51 seems too low. With 31-20 being a push, this is probably my best bet of the weekend, and I’m hoping for carnage.

Bills -4.5 over Patriots

Given the way San Francisco took New England behind the woodshed last weekend, I’m stunned the line is this low. Honestly, I think a big reason for that is the New England stigma in the AFC East. Take that fact out of the equation, and this hits me as two or three points too low.

Buffalo did not look good last week, when they had to come from behind to beat the woeful Jets. With that said, New England will be without Julian Edelman and Stephon Gilmore for this game, and I simply don’t think they’ve got the firepower to keep up with Josh Allen and company. This hits me as a 24-14 sort of game, which would be a comfortable cover for Buffalo.

Seahawks -3 over 49ers

This is the contest many are seeing as the game of the week, and for good reason. These two NFC West rivals are loaded with talent, and the last three meetings between these two teams have been decided by a total of 11 points.

My question: Are George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk enough to match Russell Wilson and company? I simply don’t think so. Perhaps Kyle Shanahan has fun stuff cooked up, but this game looks to be a high-scoring one, and Seattle just seems to have far more weapons. It doesn’t surprise me that the spread is narrow, and it’s not like it’d be shocking if San Francisco covered or even won outright, but give me the Seahawks in what seems like a 38-31 kind of game.

Bucs -12.5 over Giants

No two ways around it, gang: The Giants are bad. They’re not historically bad, like their fellow MetLife Stadium residents, but they’re bad, and I just cannot see a way in which this one is even remotely close.

Tom Brady has the Tampa Bay offense humming right now, and the Bucs defense is a top-10 unit that’s second-best in the entire league against the run. Add in the friendlier-than-expected spread, which I’d anticipated being 14 or 15 points, and I’ll gladly back the Bucs in this Monday night tilt.

DAILY FANTASY PLAYERS TO WATCH

WR Tyler Boyd, CIN ($6,600)
QB Joe Burrow, CIN ($6,200)
WR A.J. Green, CIN ($4,500)

Need an economical mini-stack that may not draw much attention? Consider Cincinnati, which will likely be throwing early and often against the Titans. Burrow has thrown for 300 yards or more in five of his last six games, and while Boyd has drawn most of the targets, Green stepped up with a big game last week, one that indicates he could finally be rounding back into form.

If you want to bet on the Bengals even more, running back Giovani Bernard is available for a reasonable price tag as well ($5,800). However, my biggest bet is on the Cincinnati passing attack, one that I’m hoping holds up its end of the bargain in a shootout.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF ($5,800)

Aiyuk doesn’t touch the ball much, but when he does, he’s a threat to take it the distance from wherever he is on the field. That’s a recipe for success against a Seattle defense that’s every bit as poor as the team’s offense is sharp. I think he’ll have several opportunities at big plays in a game where San Francisco will need as many of them as they can get, and he only needs to convert on one or two to make this modest price tag a bargain.

TE Darren Waller, LV ($5,600)

I usually don’t like to splurge on the tight end position, and this is a bit more than I’d prefer to spend. However, Waller, one of last year’s revelations, is reasserting himself as one of the league’s top weapons at the tight end spot. He’s been targeted 16 times over his last two games and has scored in each of those contests, which is appealing enough. Add in that the Raiders are playing Cleveland, whose defense is one of the worst in the league against tight ends, and I think there’s a lot that says Waller will have another big game Sunday.

Green Bay Packers DEF ($2,900)

On paper, Minnesota’s offense looks quite good. However, I think their numbers are a bit inflated after high-scoring games against the Falcons, Seahawks, and Texans, three defenses who have been exploited by many teams so far this year.

Green Bay’s defense has, for the most part, been a solid, if unspectacular, unit to this point in the season. They looked strong in holding Houston to 20 points a week ago, and held Atlanta to 16 earlier this month. At this price, I’m buying a lot of shares and using the savings on other positions.

NFL Picks, Plays, and Daily Fantasy: Oct. 25, 2020 (Week Seven)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Last week’s article went on Twitter as opposed to my website, and for good reason. Work’s been running me ragged, and I simply didn’t have the time to write something fancy. However, I’m back for the final NFL Sunday of October, and after going 3-1 last weekend, I carry a 16-7-1 mark into week seven.

As usual, all point spreads and over/under totals come courtesy of America’s Line, and all DFS costs come courtesy of DraftKings. Let’s take a look!

PICKS/PLAYS

Bills -10 over Jets

I’d love to provide some substantial mathematical analysis. I really wish I could get more creative than stating the obvious, which is that the Jets are one of the worst teams in recent NFL history. To me, it doesn’t even matter that they’re likely getting Sam Darnold back from a shoulder injury.

The Bills have dropped two in a row and will likely be playing angry in this spot. With Miami just a game back in the AFC East standings, they can’t simply take this contest for granted. I think the Bills cruise to an easy victory here, and that the 10-point spread could easily be three or four points higher.

Chiefs -7 over Broncos

Denver pulled off a shocking upset of New England last week, one that likely knocked plenty of people out of survivor pools. However, they did it against a Patriot offense that could not move the football. Kicker Brandon McManus had a busy day and came through when he had to.

I don’t see a similar game script coming to pass here. Kansas City’s offense has far more firepower, and while the Broncos aren’t a bad team (especially now that some starters have healed up), I can’t see them keeping pace with the reigning champs.

Jacksonville/LA Chargers: OVER 49

On paper, this may be the least appealing game of the late window of games. However, the total hits me as far too low. The Charger offense has shown life since Justin Herbert took over, and they’ve lost a pair of high-scoring games where that unit has kept it close against Tampa Bay and New Orleans. Meanwhile, Jacksonville’s offense is streaky, but they can put points on the board and their defense has looked lackluster all season long.

49 hits me as far too low. I think this is a potential shootout, and that these two teams clear that bar with room to spare.

Rams -6 over Bears

The 2020 Chicago Bears may be the worst 5-1 team in NFL history. They’ve won several games in pretty ugly fashion, and shaky play from the quarterback position has made every offensive drive an adventure.

In this one, the Bears get to face Aaron Donald and the Rams defense, which is coming off a subpar performance against the 49ers last week after two straight strong showings against overmatched NFC East teams. I think LA comes out angry, and that the Bears will have a tough time moving the football.

DAILY FANTASY PLAYERS TO WATCH

WR Kenny Golladay, DET ($6,700)
QB Matthew Stafford, DET ($6,500)
TE T.J. Hockenson, DET ($5,000)

The Lions get the Falcons this week, and this game looks like a track meet in the making. The Falcons boast a high-scoring offense and a defense that doesn’t put up much in the way of resistance. That’s a recipe for a mini-stack, and with these three Detroit playmakers, I can form one without breaking the bank.

If you want an even bigger stack, running back D’Andre Swift, who had a breakout game last week against Jacksonville, is available for $5,400. However, the committee Detroit has been going with in the backfield means I’m not quite as bullish on Swift as I am about his three teammates.

RB David Johnson, HOU ($5,300)

Perhaps David Johnson isn’t the explosive playmaker we saw in Arizona a few seasons ago, but he’s established himself as a high-floor option heading into Sunday’s tilt with Green Bay. The Texans showed life last week after the organization fired Bill O’Brien, and they’ll be in position to play another high-scoring game against the Packers this weekend.

If you want another Texan to watch, tight end Darren Fells may be worth considering at his $4,100 price point. He’s caught touchdowns in back-to-back games and will see tons of snaps with fellow tight end Jordan Akins likely out this weekend.

WR Corey Davis, TEN ($4,800)

Davis was activated from the reserve/COVID-19 list and will return to action Sunday. Before going to the sidelines, he caught 15 passes in three games and was one of Ryan Tannehill’s favorite targets. He’s fresh, and with Pittsburgh’s offense moving the ball well, Tennessee may need to respond with aerial aggression. At his price, I think Davis is a fun flex play.

NFL Picks, Plays, and Daily Fantasy: Oct. 11, 2020 (Week Five)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

I started writing these weekly columns for a few reasons. The one I’ve advertised is that I had a really strong year last year picking games against the spread. I went 33-23 over the full 2019 NFL season, and I wanted to see if that was merely a stroke of luck or if I was actually good at this.

We’re only a quarter of the way through the NFL season, but early returns have been positive. After posting a 2-1-1 mark last weekend, I’m at 11-4-1 for the year to this point, and a few of my DFS players to watch have hit big. That’s encouraging, and if anything I’ve written has helped you make some money in one way or another, that’s fantastic.

The other big reason I’m doing this, though, is as much for my mental health as anything else. It’s no secret that the COVID-19 pandemic has flipped the world upside-down. With neither a conceivable end date in sight, nor a date we can expect a working vaccine, everyone is looking for some sort of refuge from the chaos.

For me, it’s writing and prognosticating. I’ve wanted to be a sportswriter since I was a kid, when my dad took me to high school football games as part of freelance work with The Register Star, a small newspaper in upstate New York. I’ve been fortunate to do a lot of cool stuff. I’ve worked at a renewal of the Winter Olympics. I’ve covered college sports on an NCAA tournament level. I’ve served as a digital media whiz for two different TV networks and one of the most respected publications in gambling.

I’ve been out of sportswriting and the gambling business, at least on a full-time basis, for almost two years now. There are days where I really miss it, and this allows me to scratch that itch while providing content I’m proud of.

Now’s when we get into the deep water. A lot of what I’ve done and how I’ve done it, including the production of this very website, has been built on the premise of me being told, “you can’t do this.” I get mean tweets and messages just like everyone else who puts their opinions out there, and some of the stories are actually pretty entertaining. My first job out of college was in a Division I athletic department, and it started a few months after someone I emailed told me my chances of getting a job in a Division I athletic department were practically zero. I’ve become friendly with a guy who was one of my bigger, louder detractors when I took over the DRF Formulator Twitter account. One guy who once told me, “keep the digital media stuff, lose the handicapping,” has since DM’d me multiple times to congratulate me for producing winning tickets.

Whether it’s focused on horses or sports betting, I know I’m capable of producing stuff people enjoy, and I know that I put in enough work to occasionally be rewarded for it. That thought process sparked the emergence of Gimmick Andrew, which got a dose of rocket fuel in the summer of 2017 when nobody in racing picked more winners at Saratoga than I did. My emergence as a prominent handicapper wasn’t anyone’s idea, and I know for a fact this did not sit well with at least one well-known person in racing media.

Some people immediately got that this was my version of a wrestling character, and that me being confident in my abilities was natural while the brash, bombastic bravado was part of an act. A few of these people are some of my closest friends in the world, and they never once told me to stop. For others, the gimmick flew straight over their heads, and that’s fine. It wasn’t for everyone, just my fellow wrestling fans and one particular person who needed to be bashed over the head with how wrong an assessment of me in early-2017 truly was.

The important point: If you think Normal Andrew and Gimmick Andrew are one and the same…no. Just no. I’m confident because of the work I put in and the results I’ve gotten, not cocky because I was born on third base and think I hit a triple. When you see something I put together, whether it’s this column or an episode of the “Champagne and J.D.” YouTube show, you’re getting me doing this not because I’m paid for it, but because I’m passionate about it and think I have something to offer. If you’ve read down this far, know that I appreciate you and that I hope I can help you make some money.

Anyway, on with the picks, plays, and players to watch. As always, spreads and point totals are courtesy of America’s Line, and DFS costs are courtesy of DraftKings. Let’s keep the good mojo going!

PICKS/PLAYS

Cardinals -7 over Jets

Say it with me, everyone: The Jets are historically bad.

I asked for that particular interactive exercise because this line has moved in a curious way. Arizona was favored by 8.5 points to start the week, but the Jets, yes, the Jets, have taken enough money to drive the spread down a point and a half.

Bluntly, I find that action ludicrous. Perhaps Arizona’s season-opening win over San Francisco hasn’t aged too well, but their offense is still more than capable of putting up points against overmatched teams. No team has been more overmatched this year than the Jets, and I’d be tempted to take the Cardinals giving as many as 10 points.

Carolina/Atlanta: OVER 53.5

All together now: Atlanta’s defense is horrible.

Much like the Jets, the Falcons have started their season by finding ways to lose in painful fashion. It’s a different kind of pain, though, to be sure. While their offense has done an OK job of moving the football, their defense simply cannot keep opposing offenses at bay.

As longtime readers will attest, I’ve been high on Carolina’s offense from the jump. Robby Anderson has emerged as a legitimate deep threat, and backup running back Mike Davis (more on him later) is dangerous enough to keep the ball moving despite the absence of regular starter Christian McCaffery. This hits me as a 31-28 kind of game, and I’m hoping for video game numbers in the dome on Sunday.

Cincinnati/Baltimore: UNDER 51

Everybody all at once: This total is simply too high.

Joe Burrow has done an excellent job to this point in his rookie season. The Bengal offense has shown an ability to put up points, and he’s going to be a very good quarterback for a very long time. However, the run-heavy Ravens are Cincinnati’s worst nightmare. The Bengals rank in the bottom quarter of the league in rushing yards allowed per game, which isn’t a recipe for success going against Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, and company.

I think Baltimore will have the opportunity to string together several very long drives in this game that keep Burrow’s unit off the field. For that reason, give me the under on a total that hits me as several points too high.

Seahawks -7 over Vikings

Shout it from the rooftops: Russell Wilson is really, really good.

The Vikings are almost certainly not as bad as their record would indicate. I wasn’t alone in being high on them to start the season, and I think they’re getting better. Still, I cannot possibly endorse any logic saying the Kirk Cousins-led offense will be able to keep pace with the high-flying Seahawks.

Seven points simply seems like too small of a spread. I think Seattle wins by two scores, and in doing so stays on the path to being one of the favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

DAILY FANTASY PLAYERS TO WATCH

RB Mike Davis, CAR ($6,400)
WR D.J. Moore, CAR ($6,000)
QB Teddy Bridgewater, CAR ($5,900)
WR Robby Anderson, CAR ($5,900)

Remember when I said the Falcons had major defensive issues? I’m putting my belief in that into action this week by employing stacks of Panthers in several lineups. This is an offense that’s done pretty well to this point in the season, and each of these guys strikes me as a bargain.

In particular, Teddy Bridgewater at $5,900 just seems way too low. He’s coming off a great outing against the Cardinals and gets another juicy matchup in a game where he’ll likely have plenty of opportunities to make big plays. If Carolina puts up a big total, chances are at least a few of my lineups cash.

WR Darius Slayton, NYG ($4,800)

If you’re in need of a cheap flex play this week, I think you can do far worse than Slayton, who has been on the field for almost all of New York’s offensive snaps the past two games and has yet to be targeted fewer than six times in a game this year. This week, the Giants face the Cowboys, whose defense was torched by the Browns a week ago.

Much has been made of Dallas losing both starting offensive tackles, but they should still be able to put up plenty of points and place the Giants into a pass-heavy game script. For that reason, I’m buying plenty of shares in Slayton, and I’ll also dabble in Daniel Jones, one of the cheaper quarterbacks available. I think a fair amount of points get scored here, and I think the stars will align for Slayton to outperform his modest price point.

TE Mo Alie-Cox, IND ($4,200)

Philip Rivers has always loved his tight ends, and that hasn’t changed following his move to Indianapolis. This has meant the emergence of Mo Alie-Cox, a converted college basketball player who has scored in back-to-back games ahead of this weekend’s clash with Cleveland.

It’s entirely possible he’s a touchdown-dependent, boom-or-bust option. However, the Colts aren’t exactly loaded with talent on the outside, and they may need to throw a lot to keep up with the Browns if the Baker Mayfield-led offense keeps chugging along. For that reason, I’m leaning on another big performance from Alie-Cox, who certainly seems like he’s still improving.

NFL Picks, Plays, and Daily Fantasy: Oct. 4, 2020 (Week Four)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

My lead-in this week is very, very short. I would love to have something funny or witty to say here, but other things take precedent.

As we all know, President Trump has tested positive for COVID-19. He was transported to the hospital Friday, and social media is abuzz with everything from well-wishes to people essentially putting him into the ground already.

My message: If you’re in that latter group, stop and re-evaluate yourself.

I lost my grandmother to COVID-19 earlier this year. I’ve been through it. For lack of a better, more eloquent way of putting it, it sucks, and I wouldn’t wish that on my worst enemy.

I’m far from a Trump supporter, as anyone who follows me on Twitter can attest. Rather than cheer the news or hope for his demise, I hope he gets well, and that he and his followers (specifically those who use the word “hoax” to an alarming degree) begin to exercise rationality when it comes to the global pandemic. We all need to look out for each other, and if we’ve descended to the point where we’re celebrating someone’s death without thinking anything of it, that’s as big an issue as the virus itself.

Anyway, now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s dive into some week four NFL action. The Chiefs winning outright allowed me to salvage a 2-2 mark last weekend, and I’m now 9-3 on the season. A 75% win rate is nothing to sneeze at, and I’m hoping to keep the success going this Sunday! As a reminder, all point spreads/totals are courtesy of America’s Line, and all daily fantasy costs are courtesy of Draftkings.

PICKS/PLAYS

Bears +3 over Colts

Are we entirely sure the Colts are good? Yes, they’re 2-1, and the offense has put up 84 points through three weeks. However, they’ve faced the Jaguars, the Vikings, and the Jets, all teams with pitiful defenses (more on Jacksonville later).

Here, Indianapolis goes on the road for its stiffest test to this point in the season. It hasn’t been pretty, but the Bears are 3-0 and were rejuvenated by a switch to new quarterback Nick Foles in a comeback win over the Falcons. Chicago will be without Tarik Cohen, but the team still has a fearsome defense, one that should give Philip Rivers and company major headaches.

I thought the initial line (Chicago giving a point and a half) was pretty spot-on. I’m surprised it’s moved so far in this direction, but I’m certainly not complaining. I’ll gladly take the points in a game I think the Bears win outright.

Seahawks -5.5 over Dolphins

I don’t love a west coast team playing an early game, but this seems generous. Russell Wilson has played as well as anyone in the league to this point, and the Seattle offense has carved up every defense it’s faced to this point. Here, they go to Miami, where they face a team that’s by no means offensively-inept, but one that doesn’t seem able to keep up with their opponents this week.

Seattle’s defense is a concern. As good as their offense has been, that unit is a significant question mark. Still, you’re telling me I can get the Seahawks giving less than seven points to a team quarterbacked by Ryan Fitzpatrick? That’s too tantalizing to pass up.

Jacksonville/Cincinnati: OVER 49

This may appear to be the least-appealing game of the Sunday slate. Neither of these teams are particularly good. However, they have lots in common, as both have pass-happy quarterbacks and shoddy defenses.

For these reasons, the total seems low to me. Jacksonville is certainly not as bad as they appeared a little more than a week ago, when they were rolled by Miami coming off a short week and a three-point loss to Tennessee. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has scored 53 points in the last two weeks behind rookie quarterback Joe Burrow, who would be putting up even better numbers if his offensive line was not emulating one big turnstile on most pass plays.

I think lots of points will be scored in this game. Give me Burrow and Gardner Minshew marching their teams up and down the field for 60 minutes, and I’ll be a happy bettor.

Philadelphia/San Francisco: UNDER 45

For whatever it’s worth, this was originally going to be “under 53” in New England/Kansas City. However, that total will undoubtedly change significantly following news of Cam Newton’s positive COVID-19 test, which will of course sideline him for this weekend’s game. While America’s Line still shows the 53-point total, I can’t in good conscience back that when nobody will be able to play it.

Instead, I’ll turn to a Sunday night game with two teams that are incredibly banged-up. Philadelphia is almost out of wide receivers and has been playing with a patchwork offensive line since the start of the year, while San Francisco will once again roll with backup quarterback Nick Mullens and won’t have Raheem Mostert. This isn’t the highest total, but this hits me as a 21-17 kind of game, so I’ll roll with the under.

DAILY FANTASY PLAYERS TO WATCH

WR Kenny Golladay, DET ($6,000)
QB Matthew Stafford, DET ($5,900)
TE T.J. Hockenson, DET ($4,800)

This is largely a product of the likely game script. The Saints are 1-2 despite an offense that’s been humming, and I think they’re going to take plenty of shots on the road against Detroit. With that in mind, I think the Lions will be very pass-heavy for most of this game, so several of my lineups will have this mini-stack in them.

Of this trio, I want Golladay most. He may not have been 100% in last week’s win over Arizona, but he still found the end zone in that game. The New Orleans defense hasn’t had a great start to the year, and I think he gets open a fair bit. As one of the premier wide receivers in the game when healthy, I think $6,000 is too low of an investment.

RB Mike Davis, CAR ($5,700)

Davis was a key play for me last week and he responded, turning 21 touches into 91 total yards and a touchdown. He has soft hands and has proven to be an adequate replacement for all-world running back Christian McCaffery, and I once again think he’s undervalued.

Over the past two games, Davis has 16 receptions. You won’t find many backs more involved in their team’s passing game than that, and Carolina’s shown it can move the football effectively. At his price, Davis is once again a prominent fixture in my lineups.

DST Rams ($3,900)

This one’s pretty simple: Who do you like in a matchup between all-world defensive lineman Aaron Donald and the Giants offensive line? I don’t think that matchup ends well for Daniel Jones, who has been running for his life every game to this point in the season. I even debated playing “under 48” in this game, simply because I think the New York offense is going to have a big problem moving the ball.