Santa Anita

Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Santa Anita Opening Day (12/26/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

First and foremost, I hope you’re having a great holiday season with the people you love and care about. I’m huddled under several blankets typing this, as your resident handicapper/scribe is a converted Californian who’s no longer used to the winters of upstate New York!

One of the great treats of this time of year is opening day at Santa Anita. That card is coming up Tuesday and boasts nine races, including four of the graded stakes variety. I’ve got two multi-race exotics tickets that cover the entire program, and I’ll go through them all next!

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 9,10
R2: 3,6,9,10,12
R3: 6
R4: 2,3,4,8,10
R5: 4,8

100 Bets, $50

This ticket is built around the horse that will likely be the shortest price of the day. However, despite this “free square,” I think this Pick Five could pay handsomely.

I’m two-deep in the opener, and while I’m using morning line favorite #10 BIG BUZZ, my top pick actually breaks directly to that one’s inside. #9 FENGARI took a step forward in his first start going long, and he showed some early speed that day, which could serve him well in this spot. There doesn’t appear to be much early speed signed on, and top rider Javier Castellano (who’s in town on a one-day trip) could get an ideal trip on or near the lead in a very slowly-paced race. 5-1 seems like a square price given the likely race shape, and I could see the logic in singling him.

I’m spreading in the second race, which features a full field of 2-year-old maidens going seven furlongs. #12 CANDY CORNELL may be favored, as he exits a fast debut race at Del Mar where he was second despite most of his trainer’s runners needing a race or two to get going. He could be talented enough to win, but a bounce off of such an effort is far from impossible. The one to fear could be #9 AMERICAN RULE, a Bob Baffert trainee making his career debut following a string of fast workouts.

The single I mentioned is #6 COLLECTED in the Grade 2 San Antonio. Simply put, he seems better than the rest of this group, and if he runs the type of race he usually runs, he’ll be very difficult to beat. I respect the likes of #1 HOPPERTUNITY and #5 ACCELERATE, but Collected seems like a different kind of animal.

I thought the fourth race was the most difficult in the sequence. This is a maiden race for turf sprinters coming down the hill, and I want coverage. #10 SENSIBLE MYTH is a reasonable favorite, especially given the cushy outside draw and the continued presence of Flavien Prat. With that in mind, there are others that merit consideration. #2 CHICKATINI likely needed her debut and should step forward, #3 LADYBUG has experience and the running style that hints at downhill success, #4 SLICK TRICK is bred up and down for turf and has worked reasonably well, and #8 MAPIT has the pedigree to suggest the switch to turf will be a welcome one.

I’m two-deep in the payoff leg, and I’m not getting cute. I’m using #4 BIG GRAY ROCKET and #8 SPECTRE BOND, and they’ll likely be the top two betting choices. The former has been working well ahead of his first start in 14 months and may not have been too out of place in the Grade 1 Malibu later on in the card, while the latter makes his first start for new trainer Peter Miller and has hinted at potential from the get-go.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 5,8
R7: 1,3,7
R8: 6,8,9
R9: 2,5,8,11

72 Bets, $36

This is a very difficult sequence that, I believe, will pay out a healthy sum. I don’t have a single on this ticket, and hopefully, we can get this home.

The sixth is the Grade 2 Mathis Brothers Mile for 3-year-olds. I’m two-deep, and I think this gets off to a formful start. #5 BOWIES HERO and #8 BIG SCORE are the two likely favorites, and I’m using them both. The absence of Sharp Samurai leaves the door open for one of the horses that have chased him to win this, and I think one of them does.

The seventh is the Grade 1 La Brea for 3-year-old fillies. Many will have this figured as a two-horse race between #3 UNIQUE BELLA and #7 PARADISE WOODS, and I’m using both, but I think it’s unwise to sleep on #1 MISS SUNSET. She’s a seven-furlong specialist with seven wins in 11 lifetime starts, and while the rail draw is a bit of a problem, she’ll likely be more of a price than she should be due to the presence of the other two heavyweights.

The eighth is the Grade 1 Malibu, and while it may bite me in the rear end, I’m against the morning line favorite. #4 FAVORABLE OUTCOME ships west for Chad Brown, but I’ve yet to be floored by him this year. He earned a big number with his last-out win at Aqueduct, but he didn’t beat a ton that day, so I’ll try to beat him, especially at his likely price. I prefer #6 PAVEL (cutting back to a distance he should love), #8 DABSTER (who showed a new dimension last time out and should improve second off the bench), and #9 C Z ROCKET (who’s yet to be beaten and has worked lights-out since arriving at Santa Anita).

We finish with a real mess of a race in the form of a one-mile optional claimer on turf. #11 LAZZAM could be favored, but he wasn’t an automatic “use” for me. He’s had a lot of chances lately, and I almost put forth a ticket that didn’t have him on there. The redeeming factor for him, though, is a lot of early speed that’s signed on, which should lead to a favorable race shape. I’ll also use morning line favorite #5 SPANISH HOMBRE, as well as a few prices. #2 INCREDIBLE LUCK returns to his favorite turf course following a needed run off the bench, and #8 ACCOUNTABILITY has flexibility and boasts a last-out win here back in October.

Santa Anita Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: 10/9/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Since it’s a day off for me and I’ve recovered from a brief bout with the Arkansas Flu (given to me by one of two visiting friends who crashed at my humble Los Angeles abode this past week), I’ve opted to take a ride inland to Santa Anita for their special Monday program (plus dollar sodas and hot dogs!). As such, I’ve written up a few multi-race tickets for those of you playing the races in Arcadia, and here they are!

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 10
R2: 2,7,8
R3: 4,7
R4: 1,4,6,8
R5: 5,6,7,9

96 Bets, $48

This is a very tough Pick Five, and if you’re playing on any sort of a budget, you need to take a stand somewhere. I opted to do so right off the bat in the opener, a $25,000 claimer on the turf. #10 CURLY’S WATERFRONT showed some real talent as a 2-year-old, when he ran fourth in a pair of stakes races. I’m not holding his most recent race against him, as that came off a long layoff going shorter than he probably wants. He drops down in class, and I think he’ll take a sizable step forward.

The second leg is a $12,500 claimer on the dirt, and your likely favorite, #7 STIR FRY, hasn’t run in more than a year. She could win, but I needed coverage elsewhere. #2 BESIDES THE POINT comes back to dirt and drops down in class, while #8 FLOWER HEART DEER ran pretty well two back and gets reacquainted with Evin Roman.

I took a stand in the third against horses coming out of the September 1st race at Del Mar. That was a very slow race, and I just don’t want any part of the ones who ran in it. #4 BOSS MOVE and #7 TWISTED ROSIE were both impressive second-out winners, and this doesn’t seem like an imposing spot in which to try winners for the first time, so I’ll use them both.

I’m four-deep in each of the last two legs, neither of which are easy to handicap. #8 ZURI CHOP will probably be favored in the fourth, but he’s 0-for-11 at Santa Anita, including many tries at this level. I’ll use him, but am by no means confident (especially at his likely price). My top pick is #4 TAIMA THE HAWK, who has several strong races down the hill against higher-class opponents. 8-1 is a very square price on a horse like that, and I think he’s got a big shot. I’ll also throw in #1 YES YES YES and #6 AMERICAN LEAGUE, both of whom have also shown ability coming down the hill.

We finish with a wide-open 2-year-old race. #7 PADDOCK PICK was beaten less than three lengths in a live race at Del Mar and may go favored, but this isn’t an easy spot. Fellow second-time starter #9 SPANISH BAY is bred to be a good one and should improve at second asking, while #5 TALENT SCOUT is a Bob Baffert firster with a good work tab and #6 BEER TAP has too many flashy drills at Santa Anita and San Luis Rey to be 12-1. I think this sequence has the potential to pay very well, and hopefully, we can get this $48 ticket home.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 1,6,8
R7: 2,6,9,11
R8: 5
R9: 3,4,5,10,11,12,13

84 Bets, $42

This ticket likely won’t cost the full $42, given that #13 GOODTHINGSTAKETIME is an also-eligible in the ninth and needs luck to draw in (if she does, chances are it’s because another horse we used scratched). That said, my thinking here is to build around my best bet of the day, which comes in the eighth.

I’ll start by going three-deep in the Zuma Beach. #6 COUNT ALEXANDER is my top pick coming down from Woodbine, where he chased a very talented horse (Untamed Domain) that will take money in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. He was beaten just two lengths that day and merits respect here. I’ll also use #1 RESTRAINEDVENGEANCE, who freaked last time out for Val Brinkerhoff, and #8 MY BOY JACK, who ran into Encumbered twice and gets the services of Kent Desormeaux in this spot.

I’m four-deep in the seventh, a tricky maiden claimer. #11 WILLOWS BABE may be favored adding blinkers for Richard Baltas, but it isn’t like she’s set the world on fire to this point, so I want coverage. I’ll get that with #2 INNYMINNIEMINEYMOE, #6 FLY AS A FALCON, and #9 DREAM PROOF, the last of which is a big price. She showed significant zip last time out in her second start, drops down in class, and figures to be prominent early.

My best bet of the day, as mentioned, comes in the eighth, where I will be stunned if we get 5-1 odds on #5 VIBE. At first glance, his 4-for-13 record doesn’t look exceptional. However, if you focus solely on dirt route races, he’s 4-for-8, and one of those losses came in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby, where he had no business running against the likes of Irap and Girvin. He loves Santa Anita, beat slightly-higher-level competition last time out, and looks like the one to beat if he runs his usual race in this spot. Here’s hoping we get the morning line price, but 5/2 or 3-1 is probably more accurate.

If you’ve got a bigger budget than I do, you may want to punch the “ALL” button in the Surfer Girl, which doubles as the Monday finale. I’m going at least six-deep, maybe seven-deep if the aforementioned #13 GOODTHINGSTAKETIME draws in. My top pick, though, is the other Leonard Powell trainee, #11 FATALE BERE. She flashed plenty of talent in three starts overseas and chased a very good filly named Mission Impassible last time out in a one-mile stakes race. The post position isn’t ideal, but she gets Lasix for the first time and would be tough if she brings her European form to the Santa Anita turf course. That said, I have very little conviction in this race, and my advice is to go as deep as you can.

Belmont Park and Santa Anita Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: 9/30/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

We’re just five weeks away from the 2017 Breeders’ Cup, and while many trainers have opted to rest their stars ahead of the event, Saturday’s cards at Belmont and Santa Anita are packed with great racing and prime wagering opportunities. I’ve got a pair of multi-race exotics tickets at each track, and the likely payoffs are such that, even if only one hits, we’ll likely still be looking at a winning day.

One note before we kick off the analysis: I’ve set up a feedback survey for those who visit the site. Simply put, I want to know more about what you expect from a content perspective, as well as what you like/don’t like and your thoughts on a few additional bells and whistles I’m thinking about adding. It’s my goal to turn this site into a resource for players, and hopefully, I’ve at least taken steps towards that point. The survey is here, and it only takes a few minutes. If you have the time to fill it out, I’d appreciate it greatly.

Now, let’s get down to business!

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BELMONT PARK

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 2,7
R2: 4,6,9
R3: 2,4
R4: 2,3,5,7,8
R5: 3

60 Bets, $30

We’ll kick things off with a real puzzler. The opener is a $40,000 maiden claimer, and many of these horses just haven’t done much running. #2 VALDOCCO ran well a few times earlier this year against straight maidens, but that was at Gulfstream, and he’s been away a long time. I used him, but my top pick is #7 RIVER DEEP, who’s shown speed against better horses in the past and attracts John Velazquez. I’m taking a stand against #5 WHY GOD, who may go off lower than his 7/2 morning line due to his connections. Yes, this trainer/jockey combination merits respect, but the workouts at Monmouth are slow, the pedigree indicates that he wants much longer than seven furlongs, and (per DRF Formulator) Chad Brown is 0-for-his last-11 (and 1-for-his-last-21) with first-time starters in maiden claimers.

The second race is a turf sprint, and this is another race where you can go in many different directions. I can’t tell you who’ll be favored, but my top selection is #6 ABBOT, whose lone bad races on turf have come both directly before and directly after a one-year layoff. Joel Rosario hops aboard, and he’s ridden very well to this point in the meet. I’ll also use #4 LONE TRADER, who simply went too far last time out, and #9 SALLISAW, who is bred up and down for turf and has been gelded ahead of his return for a barn that’s done excellent work in turf sprints of late.

I’m using two of the logical contenders in the third race. Both #2 BIBLICAL and #4 ROAD TO MEATH debuted at Saratoga and could improve at second asking for top-notch barns. If I were to use another in here, it would probably be #8 FIRST WARRIOR. He’s bred to be a good one, has worked well since his debut (which he may have needed), and the odds disparity between this one and stablemate #6 AVERY ISLAND will likely be bigger than it should. However, while I may throw that one into a few vertical exotics wagers, I’ll stick with the first two on my Pick Five ticket.

The fourth is a fun turf race, and while I’m using the likely favorite (#3 FUNTASTIC), I didn’t think he was anywhere close to a lock. He did have trouble in his first start against winners, but I didn’t think he beat much two back. I’m most intrigued by the two outside horses. #8 LUNAIRE actually beat Funtastic last time out and has run up against horses like Bricks and Mortar and Frostmourne. He’s my top pick, and I also think you can make a real case for #7 HELLO HOLIDAY, who returns to his favorite turf course and gets Luis Saez. Finally, #2 VIA EGNATIA’s last race is a complete throw-out (he’s a turf horse, not a dirt horse, and running into eventual Allen Jerkens runner-up Takaful didn’t help), and #5 SOGLIO has been gelded since his last start and is another with significant back class.

We’ll finish with a fifth-race single, and probably the shortest price in the sequence. That’s #3 FAVORABLE OUTCOME, who has yet to run a bad race on dirt. He hasn’t been seen since a win in the Grade 2 Swale in February, but he’s been working very well ahead of his return, and anywhere close to his prior dirt efforts would likely beat this group.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #7

R7: 1,4,6
R8: 5,7,8
R9: 1
R10: 1,3,4,5,6,8,9,10

72 Bets, $36

Yes, I’m singling Elate in the Grade 1 Beldame, but I think this ticket could still pay handsomely. A large reason for that comes in the first leg, the Grade 1 Vosburgh, where I’ll first focus on the two horses I’m NOT using.

#2 EL DEAL made me look good with a runaway win in the Grade 1 Vanderbilt at Saratoga. He’s 3-for-3 since going to the Jorge Navarro barn, and he’s yet to really be tested. However, he’s lining up against plenty of horses with top-end early zip. #3 GREEN GRATTO, #4 TAKAFUL, and possibly #5 MR. CROW will make sure El Deal doesn’t get an easy lead. At his likely short price, given his one-dimensional running style and opposition he’ll face out of the gate, I have to try to beat him. Meanwhile, Mr. Crow takes a huge step up after two runaway wins at Saratoga. Yes, his two 100+ Beyer Speed Figures are big, but this is a sizable test for a horse with just three starts under his belt. Additionally, who, precisely, has he beaten in his wins, and what excuse did he have in his debut?

I’m three-deep here, and while I’ll use Takaful (who figures to benefit from a return to six furlongs), my top pick is #1 STALLWALKIN’ DUDE. He was way too close to the pace in the Forego, and that was just 15 days after a winning effort in an overnight stakes. He ran two strong races at Belmont earlier this year and should get an ideal setup. Another candidate for an ideal setup is #6 CELTIC CHAOS, who I’m throwing on my ticket in case multiple riders of speed horses get crazy and duel each other into submission. This horse may not appear good enough on speed figures, but if any horse benefits from the likely race shape, it’s this deep closer, and I have to have him on my ticket.

The second leg is the Grade 3 Pilgrim for 2-year-olds on the turf. #5 VOTING CONTROL was ultra-impressive in his debut win, which came earlier this meet. Chad Brown’s horses tend to improve at second asking, and such a step forward would make him the one to beat. However, I’m also keen on #8 EVALUATOR, who lost all chance in the With Anticipation following a horrible start, and solely for pace reasons, I’m also using #7 LOOKING READY. He flopped at Finger Lakes, and that’s concerning, but his pedigree is all-turf (by More Than Ready, out of a Giant’s Causeway mare), and he figures to be the main speed here. If he gets comfortable under Irad Ortiz, he may be the one they have to run down turning for home.

As mentioned, #1 ELATE is a single for me in the Grade 1 Beldame. She’s the typical Bill Mott filly that gets better and better as the year goes along, and her win in the Alabama was as impressive as any East Coast-based female horse has turned in this year. She’s helped in this spot, of course, by the lack of a star older filly or mare to run against her. #5 MONEY’SONCHARLOTTE has been managed brilliantly this year by Kelly Breen, but she’s been beating up on far lesser company. She’ll likely get her Grade 1 placing here, and a cold 1-5 exacta may not be a bad play, but I can’t see her beating Elate without monumental improvement.

We finish off the card with the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, and as you can see by my ticket, I think this race could go MANY different directions. I used all but three horses (two of which are Naipaul Chatterpaul-trained longshots, with the other being #7 CHANNEL MAKER, who takes a big step up after two races in the Canadian Triple Crown). #3 OSCAR PERFORMANCE could establish himself as a real Eclipse Award candidate with a win over older horses, but this distance is new to him, and this is a tough field. Many horses exit either the Arlington Million (won by #5 BEACH PATROL) or the Sword Dancer (won by #4 SADLER’S JOY), and don’t sleep on #10 THE GREY GATSBY, who makes his North American debut in search of firm ground for a trainer that can win with a European shipper. It’s a fascinating race, and you’ll likely get a square price on whichever horse you like. Hopefully, we’ll be alive to a nice score!

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SANTA ANITA

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: ALL
R2: 2
R3: 6,10
R4: 1,5,8,11
R5: 4

96 Bets, $48

If you want to take my last four races and punch the early Pick Four instead, I get it. That’s a $4 wager for a 50-cent increment, and you can play it multiple times for a reasonable investment. However, given the 15% takeout on the Pick Five and the high likelihood of a big price in the first race, this is the ticket I’m putting out.

I do not have a clue in the Saturday opener. This is a maiden race for 2-year-olds going long on the turf, and many of these horses are stepping onto the lawn for the first time. #10 PUBILIUS SYRUS is the morning line favorite and could win, but the last-out stakes race set up perfectly for him, and he did not have an excuse two back against similar company. With so many horses that boast great turf pedigrees, I’m punching the “ALL” button, using all 12 horses, and hoping we get a bomb home (along with, perhaps, a scratch or two to cut down on the cost of the ticket!).

The second race features a horse I’ve got some conviction about. I’m of the belief that #2 SUPREME VENTURE was one of many Peter Miller horses that just did not like Del Mar. Additionally, he was between horses most of the way, which isn’t an easy thing for a fairly-inexperienced horse to deal with. His race here two back against much better was quite good, as was his debut, which came before a long layoff (and yes, his first race back after that is a throw-out). #7 BOLSTER is favored after a romp last time out, but that was against lesser foes and came over a racetrack playing very kind to early speed. I’ll take a stand with Supreme Venture.

The third is another 2-year-old race, and I’ll use the two logical horses. #6 INSTILLED REGARD just missed behind American Pharoah’s little brother in his debut and likely learned a lot from that effort given the slow break. I’m also using #10 MOURINHO, who fetched $625K at auction earlier this year and has been working lights-out for trainer Bob Baffert. If you’re looking for a price underneath, #11 SECULAR NATION may want more ground, but his second dam, Ready’s Gal, was Grade 1-placed as a 2-year-old, and offspring of Distorted Humor can certainly run well at first asking.

The fourth race is probably a second division of the opener, since the conditions are identical. This one was not easy, but I was at least able to narrow it down a little. #1 CHOO CHOO is bred up and down for turf, and certainly not for a sprint at Los Alamitos, so he should improve here. #5 BIG BUZZ and #8 PITCHING have both been chasing Encumbered, a quality turf horse we’ll see later on Saturday in the FrontRunner. Finally, #11 RESTRAINEDVENGEANCE didn’t do anything wrong in his debut, which came in a turf sprint. Val Brinkerhoff has gotten this one recently, and she does great work with new acquisitions. Per DRF Formulator, she’s 6-for-27 with such horses over the past three years (22%), with six additional in-the-money finishes (44%) and a solid ROI ($2.69).

We’ll finish this sequence with a single in Santa Anita’s first Grade 1 of the day. This is the Zenyatta, and I’m giving #4 PARADISE WOODS one more shot. She was awful in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks at 6/5, and she lost all chance at the break in her return at Del Mar last month. However, she’s fired nothing but bullets since coming back to Santa Anita, and much like with Elate in the Beldame, there aren’t any heavy hitters lining up against her. #1 FAITHFULLY does merit respect, but on Paradise Woods’s best day, I don’t think she can run with her.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #8

R8: 1,4,8
R9: 7,8,10
R10: 5,6,8
R11: 3,5,11

81 Bets, $40.50

This is an all-stakes Pick Four with plenty of potential to pay big. I’m three-deep in each leg, and while some of the likely favorites merit respect, I certainly don’t think any are standouts to be afraid to go against.

The Grade 1 FrontRunner kicks this sequence off, and I’m not getting cute. #4 BOLT D’ORO may be the best 2-year-old male in the country, and he’s bred to love this route. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because he had a picture-perfect trip rating well behind a hot pace in the Del Mar Futurity. #1 ZATTER ran a great race being so close to that pace, so I have to use him here, and I’m also using the other Bob Baffert trainee, #8 SOLOMINI. He and the runner-up were well clear of the rest of the field in his debut, and he’s bred up and down to go as long as possible.

The second leg is the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive, and there appears to be a metric ton of early speed signed on. As such, I want closers, and all three horses I used should be flying late. #10 GOODYEARFORROSES has been very good this season and has enough tactical speed to get first run turning for home. She’s probably the horse to beat, but both #7 BEAU RECALL and #8 DECKED OUT stand to benefit from the likely race shape. The former just missed in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks, and that result may give us some value here (she’s 8-1 ML, but would probably be considerably shorter had she gotten her nose down). Meanwhile, Decked Out may want more give in the ground than she’ll get, but she likely needed her last-out effort and returns to the site of her greatest triumph, which came in the Grade 1 American Oaks.

The third leg is the Grade 1 Awesome Again. #8 CUPID may be the shortest price in this sequence, and he’s probably the one to beat. Having said that, Cupid’s trainer, Bob Baffert, also saddles #6 MUBTAAHIJ, who has been working very well of late. That’s a curious entry, so I’m not as scared of Cupid as I would’ve been had Baffert solely entered him. Additionally, #5 BREAKING LUCKY hasn’t won in a while, but he’s had the bad luck of chasing Gun Runner in each of his last two starts. With all due respect to Cupid, this may be a softer spot, and given the way he’s been training at Woodbine, I think he’s got a big shot beneath Mike Smith.

The payoff leg is the Unzip Me, and this may be the toughest race of the sequence. I took the approach of preferring horses with success on the downhill turf course, and I also threw in one returning to the turf. #3 KENDA and #5 STORM THE HILL both exit the Del Mar Oaks, but both have also run well at this unique configuration in the past and could improve coming back to it. Also, #11 MISS SOUTHERN MISS’s layoff concerns me, but her lone prior turf effort was too good to ignore. She beat some talented fillies in last year’s Surfer Girl, and there should be plenty of speed for her to rate off of in here before being asked for her late kick. Kent Desormeaux riding for his brother is another good sign.

Santa Anita Closing Day Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: 7/4/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Tuesday is closing day at Santa Anita, marking the conclusion of a meet that started way back in late-December. The folks in the racing office have put together an interesting card headlined by the Grade 3 American. I’ll be offering multi-race exotic tickets at the end of the article, including a Pick Six since that sequence has a carryover that must be paid out. Do note, though, that this ticket is very budget-conscious. I usually don’t play $2 Pick Sixes, as I simply don’t have the budget, and I can’t give out a huge ticket that I’d never play.

Before I do that, though, I’ll go race-by-race and give my thoughts on each event.

RACE #1: From a betting standpoint, I could not hate this race more (optimistic start, huh?). There’s a standout on paper in the form of Algorhythmic, who’s won three in a row since being claimed by Michael Machowsky. Her best race dusts this group…but she breaks from the rail, which is a very treacherous spot in races contested on the hillside turf course.

With that said, it isn’t like the rest of the field came up all that strong. Only two of her opponents have a win at this route, and that pair features a horse stepping up out of the claiming ranks (Del Mar Ann) and one that hasn’t run since November (Easy Grader). As such, if you’re playing the Pick Five, I think Algorythmic is a “hold your nose” single. I just can’t find anyone who seems like an upset candidate.

RACE #2: Many contenders here exit the same May 21st race, one that fell apart late after some ridiculous early fractions were posted. That day’s runner up, Summer Mischief, is logical, and I’ll use her in my Pick Five, but I’ll take a shot elsewhere with my top pick.

Lady Ninja’s first two races have come down the hill, and they haven’t been bad. She didn’t break well in her debut, but rallied to finish a respectable fourth, and she followed that up with a second-place finish behind a horse named Painting Corners, who was a runaway winner that day and also coasted to victory a few days ago. Flavien Prat stays on, and we may get a bit of a price on Lady Ninja in this spot.

RACE #3: I thought this was the most challenging race of the day. It’s a maiden race for fillies going long on the turf, and most of these horses figure pretty similarly to one another.

Reluctantly, I’ll give my top pick to 12-1 shot California Breeze, who tries turf for the first time and is bred to love it (331 turf Tomlinson rating). Flavien Prat stays on for trainer Phil D’Amato, and I’m hoping she gets brave on the front end.

RACE #4: This is a fun starter handicap featuring some speedy horses going five furlongs. Forest Blue is a considerable favorite based off of some strong recent races, but he’ll face Percy’s Bluff, who reeled off eight straight wins before trying a distance that was probably too long for him. Those two could tower over the field on the odds board, and I think they do just that on paper as well.

RACE #5: I’ll focus on a few class-droppers in this claiming event, one that starts a Pick Six sequence that boasts a mandatory payout. Getoffmyback comes back to this level, one where he just missed to a next-out winner two back. I’ll use him, but he hasn’t won in a while, and his 9/5 morning line seems pretty short given that.

My top pick breaks to the likely favorite’s inside. Atomic Action was protected three back, won two back, and then ran up against a very strong field last out. The winner and third-place finisher from that race have both come back to win, and the waters are much more shallow here.

RACE #6: This is the Grade 3 American Stakes, and it features the return of Om, who just missed in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. He’s run well fresh before, and there aren’t many heavy hitters signed on for his 2017 debut.

What could work against Om is the likely pace scenario. There’s plenty of speed signed on, and it wouldn’t be shocking if Flamboyant sat a picture-perfect trip. He hasn’t won in a while, but he may have been going a hair longer than his preferred trip for most of 2016, and he just missed at this level last time out at Golden Gate despite a wide trip.

RACE #7: The late Pick Four starts off with a real puzzler. This is a 2-year-old maiden race that’s drawn a full field of Cal-breds, and this is a spread race for me in that aforementioned sequence.

I like a pair of second-time starters most. Powerful Thirst may go off favored after an adventurous debut where he broke slowly and rallied to be fourth, while Oh Jerry took lots of money on debut and runs back fairly quickly. Still, this is a race where I think you need to buy lots of coverage if you can afford it.

RACE #8: This is a grass grab bag, and the field of 13 guarantees a tremendous betting race. I’ll use several in the late Pick Four, but I’ll be salivating if my top pick goes off close to his morning line price.

My Man Chuckles is 12-1 on the morning line, and I’m not entirely sure why. He won going down the hill two back, and ran an OK race last time out despite a post position that wasn’t ideal. Inside posts are undesirable at this route, but he was still beaten just a length and a half. The better draw in this spot should help him, as should the ample amount of early speed that appears to be lining up. I’ll gladly take double-digit odds if I can get them.

RACE #9: We’ve got an undefeated favorite in this race, and as much as I want to find holes in her resume, I can’t do that. G Q Covergirl is 3-for-3, and she came back running last time out off a long layoff. In that win, she rated a bit, which she hadn’t done in her two prior starts. There’s some speed to her outside, but Martin Garcia should have some options depending on how the race unfolds out of the gate. Improvement can be expected here, and if she steps up off her last race, she’ll be pretty tough to beat.

RACE #10: We end with a turf route that’s drawn a big field. Your guess is as good as mine with regard to who will be favored, and I like a few solid prices in here.

My top pick is I’m Living Proof, who’ll make his first start for new trainer Richard Baltas. Rafael Bejarano signs on, and he’s been gelded since his last outing, which should be a big plus. I also like 10-1 shot Insubordination, who’s flashed ample speed going down the hill. The outside draw isn’t great, but there doesn’t appear to be much early zip signed on, so he could lead them a long way.

– – – – –

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 1
R2: 3,6
R3: 2,5,7,8,9
R4: 3,6
R5: 1,2

40 Bets, $20

– – – – –

$2 Pick Six: Race #5

R5: 1,2
R6: 4,8
R7: 5,10
R8: 7,9,11
R9: 7
R10: 10,11

48 Bets, $96

– – – – –

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #7

R7: 3,5,7,10
R8: 6,7,9,11,13
R9: 7
R10: 5,10,11

60 Bets, $30

Belmont Park, Santa Anita, and Penn National Analysis & Tickets (6/3/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BELMONT PARK

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 5
R2: 1,7,8
R3: 4,6
R4: ALL
R5: 6,7

96 bets, $48

I’m going against a favorite right away at Belmont Park. The field is not great, and if My Uncle Al channels his California form for new trainer Robertino Diodoro, he probably wins. However, the lack of a published workout since his most recent start is a big red flag to me, so I’m looking elsewhere. I don’t think there’s much speed in the race, and that leads me to likely second choice Correjon. He took a step forward last time out with the addition of blinkers, and I’m hoping he gets brave on the front end against a less-than-inspiring group.

The second race is tough due to a similar lack of early speed. I don’t love the May 10th race many in here exit, so while I used Violet Blue and Blenheim Palace, I also threw in Camisole on the rail, who may benefit from the marathon distance she tries in this spot. Brewing and Monster Mash both drop down in the third, and I’m using both. I prefer the former at a slightly better price, though, as he could work out a prime stalking trip just off the plentiful speed that seems to exist on paper.

I bought the fourth race because I did not have a clue (hey, at least I’m honest), and I’ll look to close this out by using River Date and John’s Island in the payoff leg. River Date seems like the lone speed on paper, but John’s Island goes out for a barn that is very solid with new acquisitions after being claimed following an April win at Aqueduct.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #7

R7: ALL
R8: 3,4,6,10
R9: 7,9
R10: 8

80 bets, $40

We have another “I do not have a clue” race to kick things off, so hopefully we get a price home in the first leg. The eighth isn’t much easier, and it may be the best betting race on the card. My top pick is Summer of Joy, who switches surfaces and drops down in class, but it’s far from a situation where I absolutely love the horse.

I narrowed things down a bit in the Pennine Ridge, which goes as the ninth race. There’s potential for a major speed duel between Oscar Performance and Secretary at War, so I used Ticonderoga and Good Samaritan, both of whom would love such a setup given their closing styles.

We finish the sequence, though, with my best bet of the day. Starstruck Kitten is a full sibling to Bobby’s Kitten and Camelot Kitten, among others, and his debut was far from bad. He was wide turning for home, but was beaten less than three lengths. The drop into the maiden claiming ranks may raise a few eyebrows, but the Ramseys have said they are downsizing their racing operation, so this doesn’t seem like a panicky drop. Additionally, this does not appear to be the strongest field for the level, and if Starstruck Kitten improves at second asking, I think he’ll be very tough to beat. He’s 5/2 on the morning line, and I’ll be very happy if we get that price come post time.

SANTA ANITA

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 5
R2: 3,4
R3: 4,6,7
R4: 3,5,6
R5: 1,2,4

54 bets, $27

I’ll start things off with a single. Kenzou’s Rhythm drops back down to the right level following a failed stakes try last time out. Before that, he reeled off three in a row, including a win two back at a similar level over what was probably a better field than he faces here. As such, I’m singling the 8/5 morning line favorite to kick off the Pick Five.

I think the second is a two-horse race between 6/5 favorite Individual Design and 9/5 second choice Trinitys Turn, so I’m using them both before going three-deep in each of the last three legs. I’m using the three likely favorites in the third race, but my price play of the day comes in the fourth.

Yes, Algorhythmic has won two in a row coming down the hill, and Jeremy’s Legacy has a ton of back class. Either can win, but don’t sleep on Lindeza, who’s a square 12-1 on the morning line. Her most recent effort was a return off of a 15-month layoff, and she didn’t break well while being stuck with the dreaded rail post at this route. However, despite being forced to run well off the pace and being hounded by fellow rivals turning for home, she didn’t quit and was only beaten 1 3/4 lengths for third. I think there are a lot of positive things to take from that effort, and her most recent workout was sharp enough to make me think an improved performance is on the horizon here. Getting off the rail will certainly help, as will a clean start.

Finally, I’ll use three short prices in the fifth to close things out. Privy has worked well for John Sadler and may not have to be much to beat this group, but Lostintranzlation comes back to dirt while dropping in class and Gypsy Treasure adds blinkers after an encouraging debut. There may be some very short prices in this sequence, but if Lindeza shakes things up in the fourth, we could still be rewarded handsomely.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 1,3,7
R7: 3,4,7
R8: 1,2
R9: 3,4,7

54 bets, $27

Right away, we have a beatable favorite in the first leg. I used Quality Line, but this appears to be a race without much early speed, save for Awesome Image to the outside. Gary Stevens riding Scatter the Moon is also worth noting, especially given that one’s eye-catching debut at Turf Paradise.

The seventh is the Shoemaker Mile, and I’m betting on a pace meltdown. Heart to Heart and What a View both want the lead, and my hope is that their duel will set things up for one of three closers to fly home late for the winner’s share of the purse and an all-expenses-paid trip to this fall’s Breeders’ Cup Mile. Of the three I used, I like Bolo most. He was probably too close to the pace last time out, and this trip should be more to his liking.

The Beholder Mile will only have three starters. I used Vale Dori and Stellar Wind and opted to leave Finest City off my ticket. I just think that one wants one turn, not two, although I can’t fault the connections for trying this spot (especially given the short field!).

Finally, we’ll end the card with a downhill turf sprint. Conquest Smartee and Tina’s Exchange will likely be the top two betting choices, but this race also features Aussie Fox, a first-time starter from the Carla Gaines barn. The dam of this 3-year-old colt is graded stakes winner Foxysox, which makes this colt a half to multiple stakes-winning mare Curlin’s Fox. She’s run some very strong races coming down the hill, and given the pedigree, I had to use her little brother.

PENN NATIONAL

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 4,7
R7: 2,4,7
R8: 4,5
R9: 7,8

24 bets, $12

I’m not spending a ton of money on this ticket, because I think there’s a real chance it doesn’t pay a whole lot. Having said that, given the likely pool and the stakes races that are involved, this is still a sequence worth playing.

Adorable Miss will be tough in the Penn Oaks, but I had to use Party Boat, who comes in on an upward numbers trend and won a $100,000 stakes race last time out. I was tempted to take a stand against Richard’s Boy in the Pennsylvania Governor’s Cup, as I’m far from crazy about the two-week turnaround (especially since he traveled back to California following his win in Maryland). Still, the five-furlong distance fits him like a glove, so I couldn’t leave him off the ticket. I used likely second choice Rainbow Heir, and I’m also using Take Cover, who was a price play for me last time out at Pimlico. He ran a nice race that day, flying late to be beaten less than two lengths by Richard’s Boy. He won this race last year, and he’ll likely be running well late here at a nice price.

If Matt King Coal makes the lead in the Mountainview, I think he’ll be very difficult to beat. However, if a pace duel ensues, hard-knocker Page McKenney stands to benefit. This horse has run 47 times in his career, and he’s hit the board on 36 occasions. The four-legged ATM could sit a dream stalking trip behind a fast pace, so I threw him in.

Finally, I’m going two-deep in the Penn Mile. Big Score is probably the best horse in the race, and he’s an easy horse to root for given the modest pedigree and his running style. However, I also used Frostmourne, who’s improved in every start and makes his second run off the bench here. The presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., is a big plus, and he could sit a perfect trip.