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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Silvology, Race 7
Longshot: Notfanutin, Race 1

R1

Sturdy
Curvino
Notfanutin

#6 STURDY (7/5): Drops way, way down the class ladder for the Sunday lid-lifter. He was wide throughout going longer at Aqueduct back in March, so I don’t have an issue tossing that clunker. If he’s the horse he was two back, when he romped at Parx, he’ll loom large; #7 CURVINO (9/5): Hasn’t won in quite a while but is another taking a drop for a high-percentage barn. He’s shown an ability to pass others late, and while he stretches out, his last win came at this nine-furlong distance, so that’s not any cause for concern; #8 NOTFANUTIN (30-1): Is a big, big price, but in a race with a fair amount of speed and not much stamina, I want a closer, and he’s one of them. I like that a Finger Lakes rider takes a trip in for the mount, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he clunks up for a piece of it at a huge number.

R2

Waitin’onapromise
Emergency Nine
Mizty Fog

#12 WAITIN’ONAPROMISE (3-1): Drew a tricky far-outside post, but she showed speed first time out and set legitimate fractions before fading to finish third. This barn has eye-popping numbers with second-time starters, and the switch to Jose Ortiz is a noteworthy one; #2 EMERGENCY NINE (8-1): Didn’t break well in her debut and was one-paced, but she drops in class for her second lifetime outing. The addition of blinkers may mean she shows some more early zip, and that would put her in the mix from the jump provided she’s able to break better; #11 MIZTY FOG (15-1): Did no running last time out in her first try since August, but she had every right to need it and she got bet a bit that day. Her two efforts here last year weren’t bad, and Luis Saez sees fit to take the call.

R3

Mr R T
Start the Day
Bargain Purchase

#5 MR R T (5-1): Is approaching “now or never” territory, but he was never getting to the last-out winner over a track that made early speed very, very difficult to catch. A more fair track should make things a bit easier for him, and Flavien Prat riding back is a definite plus; #4 START THE DAY (8-1): Drops further down the class ladder after finishing a one-paced sixth last time going six furlongs. His pedigree suggests added distance won’t be a problem, he adds blinkers, and he draws reasonably well, which could put him in an ideal spot; #1 BARGAIN PURCHASE (3-1): May go favored dropping in for powerhouse connections, but I have some doubts. He hasn’t run since February, that one race was a clunker, and he’s a $160,000 auction purchase running for a $25,000 tag. Perhaps the drop wakes him up, but some of this feels like they’re trying to lose the horse, and I can’t take him at a short price.

R4

Killa Sally
Sparkling Mama
Spitfire

#4 KILLA SALLY (3-1): Is part of a 1-2 punch for trainer Kenny McPeek, and while she’s a bigger price than her stablemate, she’s the one I like. Her last-out bullet drill inspires plenty of confidence, Jose Ortiz gets the call, and I’m expecting her to be forwardly-placed; #8 SPARKLING MAMA (5-1): May have been my top pick if not for a terrible, terrible draw. She’ll need to clear the field from her far-outside post out of the Wilson chute, but she may be speedy enough to do that, and if she gets comfortable, look out; #2 SPITFIRE (2-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while, but she’s kept strong company and her one win to date came at the Spa last summer. She was fourth in a $200,000 stakes race two back, and the inside draw is far from a bad thing.

R5

Suited Connectors (MTO)
Factory Setting
No Tide

#1 FACTORY SETTING (3-1): Was third in a race many of these exit, and she ran well that day. She was far back in a race with a very moderate pace, and if they go any faster up front here, she’s the one who stands to benefit the most; #6 NO TIDE (10-1): Ran like a horse that needed her debut in that event, when she was rank and wide. This barn, while small, is dangerous, and its runners often get better with experience; #3 AMAZING GRACER (4-1): Has a history of finding trouble, but was fourth in that common race and finished just over a length behind my top pick. If she’s able to sit a rare-to-her uneventful trip, she’ll have a chance to graduate in a turf race that hits me as pretty wide-open.

R6

Braums Run
Hurricane Mo (AE)
Ed Charles

#6 BRAUMS RUN (4-1): Debuted in a very tough spot and was third in a race where the winner earned an expenses-paid trip to Royal Ascot. That indicates this barn thinks he has some potential, and a trainee from this outfit who took a similar path graduated here earlier this summer; #11 HURRICANE MO (7/2): Needs a scratch to draw in but merits respect if he does. He chased a well-meant runner last time after contesting a solid pace, and this restricted event certainly feels like a softer spot; #1 ED CHARLES (8-1): Draws the rail in his debut, which can be tricky, but he boasts a very interesting pedigree. The four prior runners this dam has produced are all winners, and his second and third dam were both graded stakes winners that have thrown some nice horses.

R7

Concurrently (MTO)
Silvology
Don’t Jinx It

#1 SILVOLOGY (5-1): Almost certainly needed the last-out effort given that it was her first race in over a year. She stretches back to the marathon distance she loves, which she showed in a pair of graded stakes placings last year before she went to the sidelines. This feels like everything she wants, and the morning line price is a very solid one; #6 DON’T JINX IT (9/2): Is another going second off the bench with some back class. She was third in the Grade 3 Jockey Club Oaks at this distance in November, and while I’m not quite convinced she totally wants this distance, she’ll certainly be a factor early; #7 VRONTI (5/2): Won two in a row before trying top-notch company in the Grade 1 Gamely. She didn’t disgrace herself when fifth that day, but while there’s some reason for enthusiasm, she would’ve fit in Friday’s De La Rose and possibly Saturday’s Grade 1 Diana, so why is she here?

R8

Playa Del Mar
Georgia Magic
Iron Dome

#2 PLAYA DEL MAR (2-1): Turned a corner since being claimed by Linda Rice and has run away with two races at this distance downstate. This is a step up in class, to be sure, but his recent progression suggests he can handle it, and he’ll be prominent from the moment the gates are sprung; #1 GEORGIA MAGIC (3-1): Was very, very impressive last time out at Aqueduct, when he led every step of the way going nine furlongs. We know he has speed, and he does have a win at this route (albeit in the slop); #4 IRON DOME (9/5): Looked like a very promising horse last season, when he won three in a row here before running second in the Grade 3 Oklahoma Derby. He’s run just once since October, though, and while a forward move puts him right there, this isn’t an easy spot, and he’ll likely be a pretty short price.

R9

Oscar’s Hope (MTO)
Cy Fair
Johnny’s Red Storm

#8 CY FAIR (9/5): Is cross-entered in the Grade 3 Quick Call Sunday and Saturday’s Grade 3 Coronation Cup, and she’ll be formidable wherever she runs. She’s won four of six, including the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, and she’s the one they’ll have to beat in whichever race she contests; #10 JOHNNY’S RED STORM (5-1): Wasn’t headed in two starts last year, including the $1 million Juvenile Sprint at Kentucky Downs. We haven’t seen him in nearly 11 months, but the last-out bullet drill hints that he’s ready, and if he is, George Weaver has a very strong hand; #6 UNWRITTEN RULE (12-1): Hasn’t done much wrong, with two wins and two seconds in four starts. He’s a closer in a race with a lot of early speed, which may mean he’s the one picking up the pieces late at a pretty big price.

R10

So Vain (MTO)
Artistic Success
Twirly

#5 ARTISTIC SUCCESS (5/2): Came off of a seven-month break to run third downstate at this level. She went second off the bench here last summer, and she was a very impressive winner. With that history, I’m banking on improvement in the Sunday finale, and if that happens, she’ll be tough to repel; #1 TWIRLY (6-1): Didn’t run well in her 2026 debut, but that was on dirt against starter allowance foes. She’s back on the lawn here, and at what feels like the correct level, so there are reasons for optimism; #3 MERMAID (4-1): Went wire-to-wire two back before trying much, much tougher last time out. This is a significant class drop, and while her win two back was of the “perfect trip” variety and she’s a 3-year-old going up against older horses, perhaps the shallower waters will help her.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $958

Rebel’s Romance was retired Friday, and I hope you enjoyed him while he was around, because we may not see another horse like him for a long, long time.

Consider this: Rebel’s Romance won 22 of 32 starts in an era where most top horses don’t go to the gate more than 10 times before being sent to the breeding shed. As a gelding, though, he spent the last several years criss-crossing the globe and winning graded stakes races in Dubai, England, Germany, America, Qatar, and Hong Kong.

Most humans don’t log that many air miles. Rebel’s Romance, however, had his running shoes on wherever he went. He won two renewals of the Breeders’ Cup Turf and ran well enough to take down a third when second in the 2025 renewal. A victory there would’ve made him the first male horse to win three Breeders’ Cup races (Goldikova won three Mile races, while Beholder won the Juvenile Fillies once and the Distaff twice). Rebel’s Romance should be celebrated, and he should also be a first-ballot Hall of Famer when his time comes in a few years.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Best bet Ice Chocolat scratched, cancelling all my action.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the seventh and hope the signs I’m seeing with #5 FIFTH AND CHESTNUT mean she’s ready to go at a price. I’ll have a $10 win bet on her, as well as $5 exactas keying her above and below #1 EFFUSIVE and #2 ENERGY FLOWS. Finally, I’ll single her to start a cold $5 double that also singles #2 CY FAIR in the eighth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $35.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Whittington Park, Race 10
Longshot: Fifth and Chestnut, Race 7

R1

Greenwell
The Good Life
Powerline

#7 GREENWELL (2-1): Ran a green second in his debut, coincidentally the first US race by an offspring of Flightline. That day’s third-place finisher came back to win, which helps, and it sure seems like he’s a candidate to improve in his second lifetime outing; #2 THE GOOD LIFE (3-1): Makes his debut for Brad Cox, is bred to be a good one, and boasts some head-turning workouts. This son of Life is Good is out of a mare who’s kin to Justwhistledixie, the dam of graded stakes winners New Year’s Day and Mohaymen, among others; #4 POWERLINE (8/5): Hammered for an eye-popping $1.8 million last year across the street, and for good reason. Another Flightline baby, this one is out of a stakes-winning dam, although that mare did her best work going longer than today’s distance.

R2

Spoiler
My Noble Knight
Indy Rags

#4 SPOILER (3-1): Took a big shot in a stakes race on turf last time out and returns to the right surface and level here. Prior to that event, he won two in a row at Oaklawn, and he gets to run with Lasix (which he didn’t get chasing Burnham Square on the lawn); #3 MY NOBLE KNIGHT (9/2): Hasn’t won in a long time, but he returns to his favorite track, and it’s not like he hasn’t been competitive lately. Jose Ortiz has ridden him quite a bit, and he could sit an ideal trip behind the two runners to his inside that are likely to go very fast early on; #9 INDY RAGS (10-1): Drops back into the claiming ranks after finishing fourth in a starter allowance downstate. His efforts two and three back against similar were both very good, and his lone prior start over this track was a victory.

R3

The Toy Cannon
Apollo Code
Constant Chaos

#6 THE TOY CANNON (3-1): Had an excuse last time out, when he didn’t break well and was carried out going into the far turn. He certainly seems like the lone serious speed in this event, and with top gate rider Kendrick Carmouche in the irons, he’s a genuine wire-to-wire threat if he can get back to his usual self; #8 APOLLO CODE (5-1): Was a close-up third in the mud back in April, and that day’s runner-up came back to win next time out. He’s a consistent, honest gelding that hasn’t missed the board in over a year, and his versatility should give Christopher Elliott some options; #5 CONSTANT CHAOS (10-1): Is worth a look underneath at a price. He goes from a claimer to a starter allowance, but he also goes from an open race to one for New York-breds and he was a competitive fourth in a fast race for the level last time out.

R4

Vettriano (MTO)
Spiced Up
Attfield

#5 SPICED UP (3-1): Returns to the route where he won the Grade 3 Mahony last year. He hasn’t won since then, but he was a very good second last time out behind a runner that came back to repeat. This isn’t an easy race for the level, but he’ll be running well late and may be the one they have to hold off; #7 ATTFIELD (6-1): Cuts back to a sprint, and while he won a stakes race going long late last year, this might be his best game. He came from out of the clouds to win at first asking at this route last year, and this’ll be the first time he runs with Lasix; #4 SHAPE NOTE (7/2): Was a runaway winner two back before disappointing as a 3/5 favorite last month. A 12-time winner, he’s clearly got some class to him, but I didn’t think he had much of an excuse last time, and he’ll need to be at his best in this stakes-quality optional claimer.

R5

Kathynmarissa
Segesta
Cathedral

#3 KATHYNMARISSA (2-1): Is one of four Chad Brown trainees in the Grade 1 Diana and has emerged as a divisional leader. She didn’t get her desired trip in the Grade 1 New York, when she was close to the pace rather than sitting back. She should get some speed in front of her here, and that makes her dangerous; #6 SEGESTA (3-1): Won the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley two back before finishing third here in the Grade 1 Just a Game. The winner finished very, very fast that day, and adding a furlong in distance should help her; #2 CATHEDRAL (6-1): Comes back to the US in search of just her second lifetime victory. However, she was a very good fourth in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf against a world-class field, so we know there’s talent here.

R6

Tab At Zanzibar
Dr. Kapur
Caldo Candy

#1 TAB AT ZANZIBAR (4-1): Hasn’t done much wrong in two starts to date, running second on debut before graduating here last month. That was over a very fast track, to be sure, but he’s a lightly-raced runner with room to improve ahead of his first try against winners; #5 DR. KAPUR (5/2): Hasn’t raced since February, but he kept very strong company and tried a few races on the road to the Kentucky Derby. That didn’t pan out, but he cuts back to a sprint in his comeback race, and that may be what he wants; #4 CALDO CANDY (6-1): Almost certainly needed his race in June and should be sharper second off the bench. Two of his three wins have come at the Spa, and the last-out bullet drill may mean he’s ready to go here.

R7

Fifth and Chestnut
Effusive
Energy Flows

#5 FIFTH AND CHESTNUT (10-1): Is worth a long look in her unveiling for a few reasons. Her dam won multiple stakes as a 2-year-old, she’s been working up a storm at Parx, and trainer John Servis (of Smarty Jones fame) traditionally doesn’t leave his home base unless he’s got a very good reason; #1 EFFUSIVE (5/2): Is bred in the purple, being by Into Mischief and out of champion mare Monomoy Girl. Her works at Keeneland look reasonably sharp, although I have to wonder if she wants much, much longer than this six-furlong distance; #2 ENERGY FLOWS (6-1): Was a good second in her debut at Churchill and has every right to improve at second asking. The experience edge she has over many of these could be an asset, and that was a reasonably-fast race she exits, too.

R8

Hot Currency (MTO)
Cy Fair
Sapphire Beach

#2 CY FAIR (3/5): Missed a planned trip to Royal Ascot but looms very, very large in the Grade 3 Coronation Cup. She won last year’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint and she exits a sharp score in the Grade 3 Mamzelle, a race whose runner-up came back to win next time out; #3 SAPPHIRE BEACH (5/2): Was an easy winner last time out at Churchill and goes back into the stakes ranks. Cross out the three-back dud going two turns, which is probably too far for her, and you’re left with a filly that hasn’t done much wrong on the grass; #4 CADENZA (8-1): Won a stakes race two back at Aqueduct and may have been too close to a hot pace in the Grade 3 Soaring Softly. If they go a little slower early, it could bode well for her, and the morning line price is a juicy one for a horse that’s shown plenty of talent.

R9

Gadget Play
Criteria
Stimulate

#9 GADGET PLAY (7/2): Put forth a rally to be third in his debut at Churchill, and he may have been compromised by a bump at the start and a wide trip. He likely got quite a bit out of that initial effort, and when Al Stall ships in from Kentucky, it’s usually not for frequent flyer miles; #1 CRITERIA (5-1): Didn’t break well here last month, but regained enough composure to run a good second behind my top pick in the sixth. He’s shown enough speed previously to indicate he wasn’t given his ideal trip, and the rail draw could be an asset if he’s able to start better here; #3 STIMULATE (4-1): Was fifth in his debut here last summer before going to the bench. This isn’t a barn known for first-out success, and he’s been training consistently ahead of his return (for which he’s getting Lasix).

R10

Whittington Park
Three B’s
Annexperience

#5 WHITTINGTON PARK (3-1): Was second in a weirdly-run race last time out at Aqueduct and has run well here in the past. Ilkay Katarmaci’s barn has been hot to start the meet, and this veteran’s running style could be an asset coming out of the Wilson chute; #8 THREE B’S (4-1): Tried turf last time out against stakes foes and wanted no part of it. This is closer to the spot he wants, he gets Lasix back, and while this post position isn’t ideal, he’s shown he loves this distance and the rider switch to Jose Ortiz is a big one; #3 ANNEXPERIENCE (8/5): Is favored on the morning line, likely off of a runaway score in an off-the-turf race two back. However, I have some doubts. I think he’s a turf horse, and while this is the right distance, it doesn’t hit me as the right surface.

R11

Iron Max
Leon Blue
Jack and Jim

#7 IRON MAX (3-1): Got very good last year, when he reeled off three wins in a row before going to the bench. He’s had some trouble in his last two starts, but he’s also shown some tactical speed, which could come in handy here; #5 LEON BLUE (10-1): Has run some big races here and gets back on Lasix after a failed try against stakes company last time. This is certainly a lesser field, and while it may look like he’s tailed off, Kendrick Carmouche gets aboard a horse with some early speed, and that makes me sit up and take notice; #8 JACK AND JIM (3-1): Won two in a row back in 2024 and was bet in his return last month, but he unseated Manny Franco turning for home. Franco gets back aboard, which I see as a good sign, and while he likely needs to move forward from his 2024 figures to win here, there’s nothing saying he can’t do that if he gets a clean trip.

R12

Aperitif
Combat Move
My Lil Army Girl

#2 APERITIF (7/2): Feels like “now or never” time with this filly in the Saturday nightcap. She’s run well in each of her last two outings to pick up minor awards, also ran OK here twice last summer, and doesn’t exactly line up against any monsters here; #9 COMBAT MOVE (7/2): Debuts for Linda Rice, whose horses often need a race to get going. However, she draws well, she sold for an impressive $135,000 at auction last year, has some turf pedigree, and attracts Jose Ortiz; #8 MY LIL ARMY GIRL (6-1): Was claimed last time out by an astute outfit that’s won quite a bit to this point in the season. Her last two efforts indicate that she’s starting to come around, and a further move forward may give her a shot (even given a slight jump in class out of the maiden claiming ranks).

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $958

I mentioned something on my podcast, “Drank’n Champagne,” this week that bears repeating in this space.

Friday’s fourth race is a 2-year-old maiden event for runners who sold or RNA’d for $65,000 or less at auction. This idea is a great one. It allows smaller-sized barns to run horses in reasonable spots without worrying about running into million-dollar babies, and the races generally fill, which is a testament to their popularity.

However, in some racing forms, these races are not marked as “restricted” events, and that’s a mistake. These are absolutely, positively “restricted” races, because not all 2-year-olds can run in them, and they should be reflected as such in a horse’s past performances. There’s probably something in racing’s archaic data entry system that makes this much harder than it should be, but shouldn’t we be better at calling a spade a spade, in this case?

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Tizmarkus had an ideal trip in the third but couldn’t reel in longshot winner Kunshan Bridge. I dropped $30.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: My day goes through #2 ICE CHOCOLAT in the eighth. He’s a single for me in the Pick Five sequence we profiled on the podcast, and he’s a heavy lean here. In addition to a $25 win bet, I’ll also single him to end $5 doubles that start in the seventh with #7 GEOSTOBLAME and #9 MIRAGE.

TOTAL WAGERED: $35.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Ice Chocolat, Race 8
Longshot: End of Romance, Race 6

R1

Red Square
Frenchquarter Note
He’s My Kind

#2 RED SQUARE (8/5): Broke terribly when favored in his debut at Churchill, but he showed some talent rallying from last to be third. It’s safe to assume he learned quite a bit that day, and the continued presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., says that a step forward could be in the offing; #7 FRENCHQUARTER NOTE (6-1): Showed speed in his debut downstate and is another second-time starter that could move forward. His tactical speed could allow Ricardo Santana, Jr., to work out an ideal trip, and he may be the one to catch turning for home; #5 HE’S MY KIND (3-1): Has run two solid races in as many outings and was most recently second in the race my second choice exits. On figures, he fits, but I think he may be a tad overbet, and trainer Miguel Clement also saddling #6 BLAZING TIGER in here raises a few eyebrows.

R2

The Standard
Old Time Rocknroll
Regeneration

#6 THE STANDARD (4-1): Is a tepid top pick in a race where I just don’t have many strong opinions. He hasn’t blown me away with his races to date, but he certainly feels like one of the likely speed horses in a race where they may not go fast early. That race shape would certainly work in his favor; #4 OLD TIME ROCKNROLL (6-1): Is the lesser-fancied Chad Brown runner on the morning line, but I think he’s live. He debuted going up against some very solid 2-year-olds here last summer, and he’s been working steadily for months ahead of his return. The addition of both Lasix and blinkers could move him forward; #2 REGENERATION (5/2): Completes Brown’s 1-2 punch in here, and he drops in for a tag after being off six months. He’s been working well, and he adds both blinkers and Flavien Prat, but it’s curious that a horse who ran reasonably well in two maiden special weight races goes down the class ladder, in a race where Brown also saddles another. Those curiosities mean I don’t want a very short price.

R3

Two Eagles River
Twenty Four Mamba
Reddington

#4 TWO EAGLES RIVER (7/2): Sat an uncharacteristic trip last time out, when he was on the lead through solid fractions at Churchill. He’s shown he wants to stalk and pounce, and he should get that trip here in a race that seems to have attracted several horses that want to be forward; #8 TWENTY FOUR MAMBA (3-1): Does his best work at this seven-furlong distance and was last seen running away with a lower-level race at Aqueduct. That was his first win in a while, but of the likely speed horses, he’s at least shown he doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well; #2 REDDINGTON (5-1): Hasn’t run in nearly a year, but he comes back protected from being claimed, which I love to see. The connections don’t want to lose this horse (at least not yet), he’s run very well at Saratoga in the past, and he’s another that can have something left in the tank when the real running starts.

R4

Lexi’s Charm
Juneau
R Kan’t Miss

#5 LEXI’S CHARM (4-1): Debuts for Mark Casse and is a half-sister to multiple Grade 2 winner Stormy Embrace. It’s very strange she sold for just $15,000 as a yearling with that pedigree, but she’s been working well of late and could be a runner; #8 JUNEAU (9/2): Is one of just two in here with experience, and she ran OK to be second in a similar restricted-by-auction-price race at Churchill. Kenny McPeek’s runners sometimes need a race to get going, and she may not need to improve much from her prior outing; #6 R KAN’T MISS (3-1): Barely qualifies for this condition, having sold for $65,000 earlier this year. Her dam also threw 2-year-old stakes winner Leslie’s Loot, workouts look pretty solid, and while Saffie Joseph’s barn has been a bit chilly to start the meet, he’s one that can heat up at any time.

R5

Party in the Army (MTO)
Twisted Filigree
Vacation Dance

#5 TWISTED FILIGREE (2-1): Takes a drop in class after finishing a close-up fourth at this route last month. That day’s winner, Determined Kingdom, is a very nice horse, and that was this gelding’s first try since February. I can’t get cute here, as he looks like a very formidable favorite; #6 VACATION DANCE (5/2): Drops for powerhouse connections and probably had too much to do last time out in the same race my top pick exits. His best race could win, and the Cox/Irad tag team is a good one, but closers often need quite a bit to go right in these turf sprints; #8 COURTLY BANKER (5-1): Has run his best races here, including a three-back runaway score at this route. He was overmatched against stakes foes last time out, and this is almost certainly a better level for him.

R6

Dreamlike (MTO)
Noble Confessor
End of Romance

#9 NOBLE CONFESSOR (6-1): Has plenty of back class and boasts several strong past efforts at similar marathon distances. He was second in last year’s Grade 2 Jockey Club Derby going 11 furlongs, and he should sit an ideal stalking trip that gives him every chance; #7 END OF ROMANCE (8-1): Is the one I like most out of a race June 18th that featured several of these entrants. He made multiple moves that day and was beaten just a half-length. Luis Saez hops aboard for Graham Motion, and I think there’s more talent here than what we may see on paper; #2 RIGHT TO VOTE (5-1): Is one of two Chad Brown trainees, and even though he’s the bigger price, he’s the one I like more. He makes his third start off a long break, exits a last-out win at this route last month, and is 2-for-2 over the Saratoga turf course.

R7

Geostoblame
Mirage
Antietam

#7 GEOSTOBLAME (3-1): Exits a failed turf experiment against optional claimers and drops way down the class ladder to this restricted $20,000 claimer. He took a significant step forward when allowed to run with Lasix, and a repeat of either of his efforts two and three back would give him a big chance; #9 MIRAGE (2-1): Disappointed at fairly short prices in each of his last two starts. However, this seems to be a significantly weaker group than what he’s used to facing, and his races from the winter and spring at Oaklawn weren’t bad. If he can find that form here, he’ll have a say in things; #1 ANTIETAM (5/2): Was highly-touted as a 2-year-old back in 2024, but has since dropped far down the ranks. He graduated two back before finishing last of seven last time out, but he did have some trouble that day and he gets Irad for just his second two-turn dirt outing.

R8

Inexorable (MTO)
Ice Chocolat
Beef Winslow

#2 ICE CHOCOLAT (7/2): Won the Grade 3 Poker over this turf course in 2024 and takes a drop into the claiming ranks for aggressive connections. He’s still been running well at Woodbine, so the tag is curious, but to be fair, he’s also an 8-year-old gelding. If he can channel the form he’s shown over this track in the past, I think the race is for second; #4 BEEF WINSLOW (3-1): Was fifth behind a next-out winner in a higher-level claimer at Churchill last month. The drop should help, and he certainly fits on speed figures, but I’m wondering if he’s at his best going a bit shorter, as some of his best efforts were going 6 1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita; #10 OCEAN ATLANTIQUE (4-1): Doesn’t draw well for this event, but hasn’t finished worse than third in five starts this season and was a two-back winner against similar at Aqueduct. If he gets some pace to run at, he could certainly be heard from late. 

R9

With the Angels (MTO)
Proctor Street
Sandtrap

#7 PROCTOR STREET (4-1): Is a tepid top pick in a wide-open renewal of the De La Rose, which moreso resembles a Grade 2 or Grade 3 than a listed stakes event. She’s shown she loves Saratoga, and while I think she’s a bit better with Lasix, she’s still quite good without it. This feels like the right level and the right racetrack, and that’s a tough combination to go against; #4 SANDTRAP (3-1): Didn’t do much running when sixth in the Grade 1 Just a Game, but her stateside debut two back was excellent. Flavien Prat gets the call for Chad Brown, and a return to her two-back form would put her right in the mix; #9 DEEP SATIN (5-1): Won this race last year (albeit against a much weaker group) and comes in after running fourth in the Just a Game. Like my top pick, this is a mare with a strong local record getting back to what’s probably the right level, and her best form gives her a shot.

R10

Donna Romano
Tenacious Child
Will of a Womanne

#2 DONNA ROMANO (2-1): Is a puzzling favorite in the finale. I usually don’t love horses coming in off of long layoffs and taking such huge class drops. However, she gets Lasix for the first time, her workouts look fine, and these are aggressive connections not afraid to lose horses via the claim box. I want more value than I’m likely to get, but she’s the most probable winner; #4 TENACIOUS CHILD (3-1): Presents an alternative to the chalk, but she’s another taking a big drop after four straight uninspiring races. Three of those were on turf, though, and she’s reunited with Flavien Prat, who guided her to a runaway score in February at Aqueduct; #8 WILL OF A WOMANNE (12-1): Has been competitive at this level and probably didn’t get the trip she wanted last time. She’s more of a stalking-type, but was on the lead and finished fourth. Zayas gets the mount again, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he allows her to sit back and make a run on the turn.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $988

What happened on Sunday at Saratoga was disgraceful, and everyone involved bears some of the blame. By all accounts, there were multiple issues with the 2-year-old race initially carded at a mile on the turf with a large field, and it probably never should have been written. This race, however, was in the condition book weeks ahead of time, and acting as though jockeys or agents simply didn’t read or consider the conditions until a few days before the race seems naive, at best.

The race got changed, the Pick Six sequence was cancelled, and those who spent hours poring over a Pick Six carryover got the shaft. Between stuff like this happening far too often, CAW’s running rampant at tracks from coast to coast, decisions being made that often make very little sense to the average enthusiast, and several venues closer to closing than we’d like, it’s been hard to be a horse racing fan at times.

If there’s a silver lining, it’s that the NYRA/FOX broadcast of the events didn’t run from the issue. I thought Richard Migliore’s explanation was spot-on, and as a player, I appreciated those on the desk empathizing with viewers and admitting that something rotten had occurred. In an industry where the problem is rarely the problem, and much more often people discussing the problem (ask me about Del Mar sometime), the hosts, producers, and crew didn’t insult their audience the way other parts of the industry did. That’s not nothing.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Kiamba was nowhere in the second race (and I couldn’t have given you the winner without the “ALL” button). I dropped $40.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll lean on #5 TIZMARKUS in the third, and the double starting there and finishing in the wide-open fourth seems to have some value in it. I’ll single Tizmarkus to start $10 doubles that end with #1 ARABIAN POWER and #7 MOUNT SOPRIS, and in $5 doubles that end with #4 HE’S A PIPER and #9 FRANKLIN DELANO.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Tizmarkus, Race 3
Longshot: Mount Sopris, Race 4

R1

Mr Percy
Lord Flintshire
Famous Figure

#1 MR PERCY (9/2): Hasn’t won in quite a while, but he had some excuses last time out and was a very good second at this level two back. In addition, he’s shown he can run well without Lasix, which is a major question mark for some of his rivals in the Jonathan Kiser; #7 LORD FLINTSHIRE (6-1): Almost certainly needed his last-out effort, which came off an 11-month break. He goes back to the steeplechase ranks off of that two-mile tightener (yes, a two-mile prep!), and if he runs back to his race over fences last April, he’s a player; #6 FAMOUS FIGURE (2-1): Was an impressive winner last time out and may go favored, but I have some reservations. He ran on Lasix for the first time that day, and he won’t get that medication here. His overseas form is fine, and he could win, but he may need to replicate the last-out effort to do it, and that’s no cinch.

R2

Term Premium
In Front Runner
Irish Goodbye

#2 TERM PREMIUM (2-1): Showed potential in his first start downstate when he rallied from 11 lengths back to nearly get the job done. He draws well for powerhouse connections here, and while closers are sometimes at a disadvantage in races out of the Wilson chute, any sort of a logical step forward makes him the one to beat; #6 IN FRONT RUNNER (4-1): Was a one-paced fourth in his debut at Gulfstream, which came going two turns in the slop. That wasn’t an easy spot, for several reasons, and while I’d like him more with a more inside-drawn post, he’s another eligible to move forward; #4 IRISH GOODBYE (5/2): Rallied to be second last time out after breaking very, very slowly and may appreciate some added distance. He wasn’t flattered by that day’s winner not running particularly well last week, but this one did have an excuse that day, at least.

R3

Tizmarkus
Lucky Dude
Princip

#5 TIZMARKUS (5/2): Has run well in a pair of starts for this barn and cuts back to one turn, which is probably his preferred trip. He’s got some tactical speed, which helps, and the rider switch to Ricardo Santana, Jr., is a big one; #6 LUCKY DUDE (3-1): Has been consistent the last few years and generally runs the same race every time out. This is probably a tougher group than what he’s been facing at Parx, but Kendrick Carmouche knows him well, and at least we know his form can travel outside Philadelphia; #9 PRINCIP (5-1): Was the beneficiary of a race that completely fell apart last time out. The rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., is notable, and he’d certainly benefit from a fast pace, but that was his first win in a while and he may need quite a bit to go right.

R4

Disparate Impact (MTO)
Arabian Power
Mount Sopris

#1 ARABIAN POWER (7/2): Has a pair of solid seconds since switching to turf for Brad Cox and figures to be the main speed in this two-turn race on the inner turf. Irad has gotten to know him a bit over the last few outings, and he’s likely to be the one they have to catch; #7 MOUNT SOPRIS (10-1): Merits a look at a price. His last-out effort came after a break of nearly nine months, and it’s safe to assume something went wrong two back given the long layoff. His debut here wasn’t bad, he drops in class, and he gets Lasix for the first time; #9 FRANKLIN DELANO (5/2): Is another running for a tag for the first time, and he adds blinkers for Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher. His best race came over this turf course, but his two efforts this year weren’t particularly inspiring and the outside post is a bit of a problem.

R5

Extravaganzoo (AE)
J’ray’s Jewel
Seismic Activity

#13 EXTRAVAGANZOO (4-1): Needs a few scratches to draw in but merits respect if she’s able to run. She flashed genuine speed first time out in a race at Keeneland that featured several strong efforts. This race against New York-breds is almost certainly a drop in class, and she’s certainly eligible to improve with a start under her belt; #4 J’RAY’S JEWEL (9/2): Debuted with a solid second on dirt downstate, but she’s bred for turf and gets it here. This daughter of Oscar Performance and multiple Grade 3 winner J’ray should relish this trip, especially after debuting for a barn whose runners tend to need a race to get going; #5 SEISMIC ACTIVITY (8-1): Debuts for Jeremiah Englehart and sold for $270,000 at auction across the street last year. Her works are fine, and while we’re not sure if young sire Epicenter can throw turf horses yet, her bottom-side pedigree is all-turf (her dam is kin to, among others, Grade 1-winning turfer Bigger Picture).

R6

Ati Girl
Jadorlinija
Pippa Adds

#4 ATI GIRL (5/2): May be entering “now or never” territory in her ninth career start, but her last two efforts at Churchill did show some improvement. She was a close-up second in both spots while showing improved tactical speed beneath Irad, who hops back aboard here; #7 JADORLINIJA (6-1): Picked up a minor award when third in her first try since September last time out. Her pedigree says she’ll love this two-turn trip, and she’s another that could sit an ideal stalking trip a few lengths behind the early speed; #6 PIPPA ADDS (3-1): Is another trying two turns for the first time, and she’s run into some good ones to this point in her career. The last-out runner-up came back to graduate at next asking, which helps her. The question is, does she really want to go two turns?

R7

I’m Worthy (MTO)
English Law
Vintage Vino

#2 ENGLISH LAW (7/2): Gets a tepid nod in what hits me as a pretty wide-open turf race. He drops way down the class ladder for aggressive connections, and while he hasn’t won in a while, he’s also been going against much, much better horses, and inside-drawn speed can be hard to go against on the inner; #6 VINTAGE VINO (4-1): Also drops in for a tag, and this one gets a big rider switch to Irad. He was one-paced when fifth in a pretty fast race for the level last time out, and while I think he may want even more ground, he’s got back form that would make him competitive; #8 SICILIAN DEFENSE (9/2): Runs for a red-hot barn and may be the controlling speed in this spot. Jose Ortiz has ridden him very aggressively in the past, and while there are genuine stamina concerns, it wouldn’t be shocking if he’s the one they have to catch.

R8

Max Money
Gethsemane
Palacios

#6 MAX MONEY (7/2): Tried stakes company last time out and faded to finish a distant sixth. This is a much, much better level for him, and he’ll get to run with Lasix again. The only other time he’s had it was in his two-back score, easily the best race he’s ever run; #5 GETHSEMANE (4-1): Has run consistently well in each of his last five starts across three different tracks. He most recently chased a much-the-best winner last time out at Churchill, and the slight cutback to the Wilson chute may be what he wants; #7 PALACIOS (5/2): Has some strong speed figures but hits me as an underlay at the likely price. His running lines tell a story that says he finds trouble, and outside-drawn closers are sometimes up against it at this quirky route.

R9

Roasted Reds
Force of Mischief (AE)
Island Charm

#6 ROASTED REDS (3-1): Didn’t have an ideal trip first time out in a race several runners in here exit. She was wide that day while rating behind a pretty slow pace. Prat rides back when he likely had some options, and she’s certainly eligible to move forward at second asking; #13 FORCE OF MISCHIEF (9/2): Needs some luck to draw in off the AE list, but drops in for a tag and adds blinkers after showing some speed against better horses last time out. The post won’t be ideal, but if she runs, there’s reason to believe she can improve; #12 ISLAND CHARM (5-1): Is another that lost the post position draw, but she’s been very competitive at this level and was most recently an OK third downstate. She’s got other speed to clear, but if she can somehow get over and minimize the ground loss, she’s another potential contender in the Thursday finale.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,028

Saturday’s early double showed one of the reasons fans love this meet so much. Midnight Still and Angel of Kirk were chalky winners, but both were very, very impressive, and they’re 2-year-olds with what appear to be pretty high ceilings. It wouldn’t be surprising to see those two in races like the Spinaway and Hopeful on closing weekend.

If those races weren’t enough for you, we’ve got three 2-year-old maiden races on tap for Sunday. If pedigrees and workouts are your thing, it’s one of the best cards of the meet, and there’s plenty to digest as you go through the nine-race program. 

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Uptown Rosie broke sharply and set a fast pace, but had little left when the field turned for home. I dropped $30.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: My strongest opinion comes in the second, where I think #1 KIAMBA will be very tough. I’m keeping it simple with a $40 win bet, and I hope we get the 5/2 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Kiamba, Race 2
Longshot: Grace of Monaco, Race 5

R1

Tinian
Cut Down the Nets
Hammerin Henry

#10 TINIAN (3-1): Sold for $210,000 at auction earlier this year and has been working well for trainer Mark Casse ahead of his debut in the Sunday lid-lifter. The far-outside post is a great one for a young horse to have, and if he runs to his morning drills, he could be a very nice horse; #2 CUT DOWN THE NETS (9/2): May have lost his unveiling at the gate, and he finished a distant fourth behind next-out stakes winner Booked. This barn’s horses often need a race or two to get going, and the experience edge he has on his rivals is a plus; #5 HAMMERIN HENRY (7/2): Debuts for powerhouse connections and boasts a string of solid workouts downstate. His bottom-side pedigree is sneaky strong, as his dam was a first-out winner and his lineage traces back to third dam Silent Turn, who won multiple graded stakes races.

R2

Kiamba
Higher Force (MTO)
Midnight Concerto

#1 KIAMBA (5/2): Was disappointing last time out, but that may have simply been a “bounce” off of a solid third in the Grade 3 Sheepshead Bay. At a minimum, her form here and in France says she wants this 12-furlong distance, and that’s a major question mark for many others. If she bounces back, she’ll be very tough to beat; #3 MIDNIGHT CONCERTO (4-1): Has run well twice this season and was most recently second in the Mount Vernon here last month. She stretches out to a marathon distance, but there’s no doubting she’s in career-best form coming into this one; #6 PRETTY TAPIT (8-1): Graduated by daylight last time out at Churchill going this distance and faces winners for the first time. I’m a bit skeptical of the field she faced that day, but the pedigree says this is the trip she wants, and perhaps the light’s come on.

R3

Bellacose
Moonlight Gal
Cararra

#4 BELLACOSE (5/2): Is a tepid top pick that I’m not crazy about. She hasn’t run since August, she’s run just five times in two years, and she’s clearly had her issues (which may explain the big drop in class). However, she loves Saratoga, has run her best races here, and faces no monsters. If she’s anywhere close to the horse she was two back, she probably wins; #3 MOONLIGHT GAL (8-1): Comes up in class after topping non-winners of two last time out. She’s done her best work at this quirky seven-furlong trip, though, as both of her wins have come at this distance. Add in her ability to pass others late, and there’s stuff to like (especially given the likely price); #9 CARARRA (8-1): Takes a big drop in search of her first win in multiple years. However, one of her two victories came in her lone Saratoga start to date, and this is easily the lowest level she’s ever run at. The presence of Joel Rosario doesn’t hurt, either.

R4

Liam’s Law
And the Runner Is
Suspend

#2 LIAM’S LAW (8-1): Was one of a few that had rough trips in his debut on May 24th in a race that was rained off the turf. However, he gets the grass here (which he’s bred to love, being by Colonel Liam and out of a Kitten’s Joy mare), Flavien Prat stays on for Todd Pletcher, and he’s certainly eligible to improve with experience; #11 AND THE RUNNER IS (5-1): Is one of two Mark Casse trainees in here, and he’s another bred up and down for the lawn. This son of Oscar Performance and Grade 2 winner Linda attracts Irad Ortiz, but will have to overcome a terrible far-outside post position going two turns on the inner; #3 SUSPEND (10-1): May need a race (as Bill Mott trainees often do), but given his pedigree, this is certainly the right spot. He’s by Tapit and out of multiple graded stakes winner Lull, who herself has a dam who’s kin to Grade 1 winners Saint Liam and Funtastic, among others.

R5

Grace of Monaco
Immortal Poet
Americanexpression

#3 GRACE OF MONACO (12-1): Has real appeal at anywhere close to the morning line price. She takes one of the biggest drops in racing (from a maiden special weight to a maiden claimer), and she’s bred to like the turf. Sire Street Sense won the Kentucky Derby, but his offspring tend to run well on the grass, and if this one relishes it, she may be the one to catch; #8 IMMORTAL POET (6-1): Is another class-dropper with early speed, and she makes her second start off a long layoff. The pace she pressed last time was a fast one, she had every right to need that race, and she should be more fit second off the bench; #7 AMERICANEXPRESSION (6-1): Ran OK in her debut, when she finished third against straight maidens over the synthetic at Gulfstream. I’m honestly a bit surprised she shows up for a tag off of that effort, but this barn, while small, knows how to spot horses.

R6

Limes Don’t Lie
Alyeska
Strong State

#3 LIMES DON’T LIE (7/2): Is one of two Chad Brown trainees, but despite being a bigger price on the morning line, this is the one I like. She was never beating Scottish Lassie last time out, and she wasn’t able to sit her desired trip given the small field. There’s speed in here, so she should be able to sit back and make one big late run; #7 ALYESKA (9/5): Makes her first start in nearly 10 months here, but she’s shown serious potential. Her win before going to the sidelines was a good one. The question is, is she ready to go off the bench, and even if she is, can she turn the tables on her stablemate, who beat her two back at this route?; #4 STRONG STATE (4-1): Didn’t break well last time in her first try since November, and I’m willing to give her a pass for that race. Prat rides for Al Stall, who merits respect whenever he ships a runner in, and she’s another that could benefit from a pace meltdown.

R7

Five Grand
Road Show
Saratoga Tea

#6 FIVE GRAND (5/2): Is a tepid top pick in a 2-year-old maiden race with nine debuting runners where I’d spread in multi-race exotics. This one, though, is a full brother to a nice horse named Five G, who’s won multiple stakes races, and Prat, who likely had options, chooses to ride this George Weaver trainee; #8 ROAD SHOW (7/2): Doesn’t have the flashiest pedigree, but the two recent four-furlong drills here look very, very sharp. Jose Ortiz takes the call for Mark Casse, and they’re both off to great starts at this stand; #3 SARATOGA TEA (9/2): Comes in off of two strong gate works for trainer Rodolphe Brisset, and those came a few months after he sold for $250,000 at the OBS sale. Sire Yaupon has been throwing a lot of precocious horses, but this barn isn’t necessarily known for success with first-time starters.

R8

Golden Symphony (MTO)
Highlands Way
The Paddock Pastor

#6 HIGHLANDS WAY (6-1): Sold for $1.35 million at auction in 2023, didn’t race until December, and came back in a maiden claimer for a $55,000 tag, only to circle most of the field and win going away. Maybe he didn’t beat much, but maybe he’s just taken longer to come around, and maybe his connections will be glad nobody reached in to claim him; #12 THE PADDOCK PASTOR (8-1): Generally doesn’t get bet, but he’s run several very good races over this turf course. He just missed Belmont week and should once again get a pace to run at. The question is, can Jaime Rodriguez work out a trip from this far-outside post?; #3 GENE AND JUDE (8-1): Appeals to me the most out of the likely frontrunners. He was third in the race my second choice exits, but he didn’t get to save much ground that day. He should clear the two horses to his inside, and that may put him in an ideal spot.

R9

Twenty One Red
Down the Field
Golden Joker

#11 TWENTY ONE RED (7/2): Is another reluctant top pick in a race where I’d recommend going deep if you can afford it. His record says he’s 0-for-11, and I usually don’t love horses like that, but he’s a turf horse that spent the winner running on dirt at Aqueduct. His last-out effort was solid, and he ran second in his lone prior try over this turf course; #5 DOWN THE FIELD (6-1): Debuts for Linda Rice, whose numbers with debuting turfers aren’t great. However, his works are solid enough, Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride, and among others, he’s a half-brother to Candied, a filly who won a Grade 1 as a 2-year-old; #6 GOLDEN JOKER (8-1): Had a terrible trip in his debut and is certainly logical to improve at second asking. He’s received the ultimate equipment change since his last start, as he’ll run as a first-time gelding in the Sunday finale, and a cleaner trip could give him a chance to graduate.