BANKROLL

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Maria Louise, Race 4
Longshot: J’ray’s Jewel, Race 6

R1

Lou’s Room
Foolin
Songbird Prince

#7 LOU’S ROOM (9/5): May not have had the best trip in his debut at Colonial a few weeks ago, and he’s certainly eligible to improve at second asking for George Weaver given that experience. He’s got plenty of pedigree on both sides, Manny Franco hops aboard, and I think he’s a legitimate favorite in the Sunday lid-lifter; #3 FOOLIN (2-1): Showed speed on dirt last month before finishing a distant third. Blinkers go on, as does aggressive rider Ricardo Santana, Jr., and they may have him to catch when the field turns for home; #1 SONGBIRD PRINCE (6-1): Sold for more than $213,000 overseas and has a right to have some talent. John Velazquez has the call, which is interesting, but this barn’s first-time starters often need a race to get going, and the rail draw isn’t ideal.

R2

Tiger Twenty Four
Gypsy Dreaming
Momentum Files

#5 TIGER TWENTY FOUR (4/5): Takes a significant class drop after running a competitive fourth against stakes-quality optional claimers and may be the heaviest favorite on the card. His two-back win at Aqueduct was also a sharp effort, and while the tag does raise a few questions, if he’s right, the race is likely for second; #4 GYPSY DREAMING (15-1): Goes back to the dirt after a failed turf experiment earlier this month and figures to be prominent early. There are some stamina concerns here, but there also isn’t much other early speed signed on (at least on paper). He could hang around for a piece of this at a price; #3 MOMENTUM FILES (6-1): Cuts back to six furlongs after fading to be fifth in a seven-furlong starter allowance last month. He’s another that may be forwardly-placed, but this barn has been ice-cold for most of the summer, so I hesitate to recommend him higher than this.

R3

Motawaali (MTO)
Kipros
Hetch Hetchy

#2 KIPROS (5/2): Didn’t break that well in his debut and was stuck well behind a pretty slow pace. However, he picked up some pieces to be fourth and has a right to move forward in his second start. There seems to be more speed in here, which could really help him if he’s able to sit back and make one run; #3 HETCH HETCHY (9/2): Debuts going two turns, which is never easy, but there’s plenty to like. This son of Munnings is out of a mare that won her debut, second dam Colonial Flag was a graded stakes winner, and the third dam threw, among others Grade 1 winner Shared Account; #8 MAPPED (5-1): Is one of two Todd Pletcher trainees in here, and while I usually don’t like his first-time starters on turf, this one has a lot to recommend. He’s out of 2-year-old stakes-winning turfer Ava’s Kitten, whose three prior foals to race have won, and that dam is a full sister to multiple Grade 1-winning grass horse Real Solution.

R4

Maria Louise
Golden Irish
Fire Moon

#5 MARIA LOUISE (7/5): Did everything right in her debut, when she stalked, pounced, and drew away professionally. Winning first time out in a Wilson chute race is no small task. She was bred to be a good one, it feels like she’s got plenty of talent, and she doesn’t face any world-beaters in her first try against winners; #2 GOLDEN IRISH (12-1): Merits a look at a price thanks to being inside-drawn speed at this route, which is very dangerous. She probably lost all chance at the break last time, so I have no problem throwing that race out. This distance is an unknown, but when she gets the lead, she’s shown she’s dangerous; #3 FIRE MOON (6-1): Hasn’t run in more than four months but has been working well of late for Cherie DeVaux. The last-out bullet drill over the training track jumps off the page, and her two prior dirt races were both very solid. If she’s ready, she’s not without a chance.

R5

D’muehl
McLight
Stellabration

#6 D’MUEHL (2-1): Ran well in her debut, when she made the lead in the stretch but settled for second. She was more than six lengths clear of that day’s third-place finisher, Manny Franco hops aboard for trainer Brad Cox, and she’s strictly the one to beat; #9 MCLIGHT (6-1): Debuts for Bruce Levine, who doesn’t run many first-time starters but owns a decent clip and a positive ROI with those horses. Among others, she’s kin to 2-year-old stakes winner Letmecounttheways, and she’s got a recent gate drill from earlier this month that looks solid; #10 STELLABRATION (9/2): Comes in off of some sharp moves over the training track for Mike Trombetta, and the outside draw could be a plus. She’s a half-sister to multiple stakes winner Antonio of Venice, but it’s worth noting lots of her bottom-side pedigree leans to turf, not dirt.

R6

J’ray’s Jewel (AE)
Fave
Mios

#13 J’RAY’S JEWEL (6-1): Needs a scratch to draw in, but if she runs, she’s getting the exact route she’s bred to love (being by Oscar Performance and out of a classy turf distaffer). Her two races to date have been fine, but everything about her says she’ll get better with more distance. If she’s able to make the gate, that’s what she gets, and the addition of blinkers could also move her forward, too; #5 FAVE (7/2): Debuts for George Weaver and is another bred up and down for the lawn. This daughter of Golden Pal is out of a stakes-winning mare, and her third dam on the bottom side is Geisha Girl, who was a pretty good European turf horse in her day; #9 MIOS (6-1): Hammered for $200,000 earlier this year, is another daughter of Oscar Performance, and has a dam who’s kin to Grade 1-winning turfer Speaking Scout. Her workouts look fine, but this barn’s numbers with debuting runners aren’t that great. I’m looking forward to seeing her run given the pedigree, but I think she might need a race.

R7

Brunch With Amy
Oscar Bound
Scarlet’s Dream

#1 BRUNCH WITH AMY (7/5): Looms large in the first leg of the late Pick Four on a significant class drop for aggressive trainer Linda Rice. She hasn’t won in a while, but she’s been going against much, much better horses. The cutback to seven furlongs (her most recent winning distance) is just one of many things that will make her tough to top; #6 OSCAR’S DREAM (8-1): Is another class-dropper in search of a first win in a while, and she’s been inconsistent, but when she’s good, she’s very good. She’s tried stakes company twice this year, so these waters are much more shallow than the ones she’s been swimming in, and she’s got plenty of early speed; #5 SCARLET’S DREAM (8-1): Tried state-bred allowance foes twice with no luck and is back in for a tag here. She ran well against claimers earlier this year at Aqueduct and Laurel, so this feels like the correct level, and one of her two prior wins came at this seven-furlong trip.

R8

Isthereanormalwife
Modest Maclean
Tap Rules

#2 ISTHEREANORMALWIFE (7/2): Ran very well to be second in his debut on dirt behind a stakes-caliber horse before going two turns on turf last time out. That didn’t go well, and he’s back to the distance and surface he probably wants. John Velazquez hops back aboard for David Donk, and if he runs back to his unveiling, he’ll have a big chance; #10 MODEST MACLEAN (5/2): Was an odds-on favorite eight days ago after a strong debut, but he faltered out of the Wilson chute and was a distant fourth. I’m not sure what to make of the quick turnaround, and that last outing was a stinker, but if he can channel his debut form from what could be a beneficial outside post, he could atone for the most recent outing and earn the diploma; #3 TAP RULES (6-1): Sold for $220,000 across the street two years ago and has been working sharply for Miguel Clement. Manny Franco likely had plenty of options, but he lands here. My one hesitation with him is that his pedigree (by Tacitus, out of a Union Rags mare) hints that he wants a lot more distance than this six-furlong trip.

R9

Munnings Express (MTO)
Awesome Czech
Being Betty

#9 AWESOME CZECH (2-1): Goes back to state-bred competition after spending three starts this year knocking heads with open company. She was beaten less than two lengths by And One More Time in the De La Rose, and that one came back to win the Ballston Spa. The likely favorite looks tough in the Yaddo; #4 BEING BETTY (6-1): Won two in a row before trailing in the De La Rose. She may have enough tactical speed to sit an ideal stalking trip just off of a legitimate pace, and that would give her every chance turning for home; #8 SAIL WITH THE WIND (6-1): Has won three in a row, albeit with a last-out dead heat being part of the streak. She’s clearly going very well for Jeremiah Englehart, and her best effort gives her a chance. The question is, can she put forth that kind of performance without Lasix, which she’s run with consistently for the lion’s share of her career?

R10

Noble Glow (MTO)
Miss Twitter
Indomiknow

#8 MISS TWITTER (5/2): Was third in her debut out of the Wilson chute, which isn’t an easy first-out ask. That experience should help her, and she’s bred to improve considerably on turf. She’s kin to stakes-winning grass horse Empress Tigress, and her dam is a half-sister to two stakes winners who did significant damage on the lawn; #7 INDOMIKNOW (9/2): Is a European-bred runner getting Lasix for the first time, which I always love to see. She’s competed against big fields in her native Ireland and run fairly well. If she’s ready to go in her American debut, she could be live in the Sunday nightcap; #4 PORTIXOL (6-1): Is one of several first-time starters in here, and she’s got reason to be a runner. Her dam’s prior three runners are all winners, she’s been training well downstate for Miguel Clement, and breaking outside of the other three firsters could be a plus.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $990.83

A few days ago on Twitter, I mentioned the unfortunate nature of Kentucky Downs opening on Travers Day. My podcast co-host, Josh Rodriguez, and I discussed it on this week’s episode of “Drank’n Champagne,” available on the On the Wrong Lead network on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts.

I want Kentucky Downs to do well (like I want all racetracks to do well). However, as I said on the show, I have concerns. We’ve learned that expecting venues to coordinate post times is foolish, with tracks constantly in conflict with one another to the detriment of bettors trying to enjoy multiple locales at once.

In addition, I’m not sold on raising minimums for some bets. There are mathematical arguments in favor of this, but from a marketing standpoint, anything that makes it more expensive to enjoy a day at the races feels like a bad idea.

If I’m wrong about any of this, I’ll be the first to give track management credit. If Josh is right and everyone succeeds, that’s great. I, however, have my doubts.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Blackjack faded in the seventh, River of Deceit ran third in the eighth, and I dropped $50. As an aside, I’ll give a shout-out to longtime reader Andrew Cobb, who pointed out that my 9-5 double went along with my Dolly Parton tribute.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the middle of today’s card, as I think the fifth and sixth have some value. First, I’ll play $5 doubles starting with #9 CELEBRATE and #10 MANDY STEPH and finishing with #5 COMICAL MISCHIEF, #7 FREEDOM CHARGE, and #8 FIVE GRAND. In addition, I’ll play a wider $1 Pick Three ticket starting in the fifth that goes as follows: 6,9,10 with 4,5,7,8,9 with 2.

TOTAL WAGERED: $45.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Mi Bago, Race 7
Longshot: Comical Mischief, Race 6

R1

Rockabye
Quartz Mountain
Bolt Island

#5 ROCKABYE (8/5): Is a logical favorite in the Friday lid-lifter after back-to-back second-place finishes to start her career. She led late last time out before being reeled in by a good-looking winner, and she was five lengths clear of the rest of that field. That sort of effort could make Friday graduation day; #3 QUARTZ MOUNTAIN (5/2): Set a very fast pace last time out when a 6/5 favorite, but she tired badly in the stretch. She comes in off of a recent four-furlong bullet drill, and at a minimum, they’ll likely have her to catch turning for home; #2 BOLT ISLAND (6-1): Debuts for Mark Casse off of a string of solid local drills and is bred to be a good turf horse. She’s by Bolt d’Oro, out of a Scat Daddy mare, and will finally get a chance to debut after scratching earlier in the summer.

R2

Bellacose
Ah Ca Ira
Miss Lao

#7 BELLACOSE (9/5): Tried far tougher last time out when a distant fifth behind stakes-winner Hot Currency, and she drops to what’s probably the right level over her favorite surface. All three of her victories have come at the Spa, and I think she’ll relish the class relief she gets here; #2 AH CA IRA (3-1): Finished second last month in a race against several runners that also show up here. I don’t think that race was a particularly strong one for the level, but her local record is solid, and she could sit an ideal stalking trip just off the speed; #3 MISS LAO (8-1): May have lost all chance at the start last time out, when she made a bit of a middle move before tiring to finish fifth of eight. She may want a bit longer than this 6 1/2-furlong distance, but her two-back win downstate was strong and she’s capable of running a good one on her best day.

R3

Spoiler
Fever Night
Polar Bear Plunge

#5 SPOILER (1-1): Is one of two runners for an owner vying for the owner’s title, and he was most recently second running for more than double this claiming price. That came in the slop, but it also came against horses that appear much better than these. A similar type of run may mean the race is for second; #6 FEVER NIGHT (5-1): Has won two in a row going a mile and stretches out to two turns. I’m not crazy about the distance (he’s 0-for-4 going nine furlongs), but he looks like the main early speed, and if he gets comfortable up front, perhaps he’ll get brave; #7 POLAR BEAR PLUNGE (6-1): Is the “other” Flying P runner here, and he just missed at this level and route in early-July. A claim was voided that day, which raises some questions, but that day’s winner came back to repeat at next asking, and Manny Franco has the call.

R4

Norwich
Normandy Coast
Shoot the Nickel

#1 NORWICH (3-1): Gets a tepid nod in what hits me as the first wide-open race on the card. He got his nose down a few weeks ago in his first start off the claim for Fernando Abreu, and that came after a solid second going seven furlongs in June. Santana sees fit to ride back, and sitting a stalking trip would give him a big shot; #8 NORMANDY COAST (4-1): Beat my top pick last time out and goes up in class on paper for this event. Rob Falcone claimed him out of that race, and that barn has been cold this summer, but a repeat of the last-out effort would make him competitive; #6 SHOOT THE NICKEL (5/2): Is the morning line favorite after being edged by my top selection last time out. He’s a deep closer that may need quite a bit to go right, and that may be contributing to his tendency to run second. However, he’d benefit from either a pace meltdown or rain, as he’s at his best over off going.

R5

Revenge of the Sis (MTO)
Celebrate
Mandy Steph

#9 CELEBRATE (6-1): Had an eventful trip in her debut going two turns, where she rallied to be fourth after some trouble and a wide trip. Everything about her pedigree says she’ll get better with experience, and I don’t think she has to move forward much to get the money at a bit of a price; #10 MANDY STEPH (7/2): Was third in the race my top pick exits. She’ll have to navigate a very wide post on the inner turf, which could be problematic given her apparent running style. However, she’s another that could improve second time out, and if she does, she’d be an unsurprising winner; #6 SELLONTHENEWS (9/2): Debuts for Chad Brown after selling at a prestigious event overseas late last year. Her European pedigree is attractive, as is the presence of Flavien Prat, but that pedigree hints she may need some time, and while Monmouth works for this barn aren’t the disqualifying factors they were in some years past, they do raise some questions.

R6

Five Grand
Freedom Charge
Comical Mischief

#8 FIVE GRAND (6-1): Ran well when third in his debut last month after going wide into the stretch and making up quite a bit of ground. He was favored that day, and he’s since turned in a sharp two-back drill over the Oklahoma track. George Weaver has two in here, but this is the one I prefer; #7 FREEDOM CHARGE (7/2): Was third from start to finish in a race won by a talented first-time starter. Blinkers go on, Jose Ortiz stays on, and he figures to be one of the ones dictating terms from the jump; #5 COMICAL MISCHIEF (15-1): May not look like much, but anytime a prominent Finger Lakes barn comes to Saratoga with a local rider in tow, I pay attention. There are some solid works on his tab, and it’s not like there are any apparent monsters in here. This may be one of the couple of spots every year where a barn and rider ship in and take down a solid purse.

R7

Doc Sullivan (MTO)
Mi Bago
Spirit of St Louis

#4 MI BAGO (2-1): Has spent most of the summer going against some of the best turf horses on the circuit. He gets significant class relief in the West Point, and while there’s some other early speed in here, I simply think he’s better than this bunch, based off of his runaway win in the Kingston over several of these; #2 SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS (3-1): Hasn’t won in a while, but he’s one of only a few horses in here that doesn’t want to be forward. He’ll sit back and make one run, and if others go with my top pick early, he’d be the most likely beneficiary; #8 GEORGE BRIGGS (7/2): Chased the top two home in the Kingston, and he’s probably a better horse on Lasix, which he was on in a solid, professional score two back. However, he’s another that will do his best running late, and Prat lands here when he likely had a few options.

R8

Storm Miami
Silvology
Massarat

#6 STORM MIAMI (4-1): Hasn’t won in over a year, but she looks like the absolute lone speed in the Grade 3 Waya, and that’s dangerous in marathons over the inner turf course. She ran well to be second behind Survie in the Grade 2 Glens Falls, and that one bounced out of that effort to win the Grade 1 Christophe Clement against the boys; #8 SILVOLOGY (7/2): Keyed one of my biggest scores of the summer last time out, when she stretched back out to this distance and won going away over a next-out winner. This is a step up in class, and the race shape does concern me, but she does her best work in these races and we know she can run well without Lasix; #4 MASSARAT (9/2): Was a two-back winner against optional claiming foes downstate before running fourth in the Glens Falls. That race, like this one, didn’t have much early speed signed on, which isn’t ideal, but it’s also possible that day’s 12-furlong trip was just a bit further than the one she truly wants.

R9

Sweet Note
Bam’s Bliss Kiss
City Blocks

#9 SWEET NOTE (7/2): Did all the dirty work up front last time and was beaten a head by Mursal, who came back to win again not long after that event. She’s versatile, being able to win on the lead or from off the pace, and the outside post should give Jose Ortiz plenty of options out of the gate; #4 BAM’S BLISS KISS (3-1): Certainly looks like the main speed, and she gets class relief after a pair of duds against stakes foes. There’s a chance she’s off form given just how disappointing those outings were, but the class drop could easily wake her up, and the return of Lasix is also a plus; #6 CITY BLOCKS (5-1): Takes a big class jump after an easy score against $12,500 claimers. She was, in fact, claimed by Linda Rice that day, and she protects this mare in this spot. Seeing Flavien Prat aboard makes me think these connections believe she’s got some potential to improve.

R10

Music in Motion (MTO)
Joker On Fire
Illmatic

#8 JOKER ON FIRE (3-1): Is one of many exiting a common race earlier this month, and he was an unlucky loser that day, being beaten just a head after a wide trip. He’s run well here several times this summer, Jose Lezcano has heated up after a rough start, and I think he’s live in the nightcap; #1 ILLMATIC (7/5): Had some trouble in that event, as he was stymied until mid-stretch before coming with his run. However, I’m not sure how much more trouble he had than that day’s runner-up (my top pick here), who conceded quite a bit of ground. This one could win, but the likely disparity on the tote board may be too big for my liking; #2 THREE THIRTEEN (15-1): Cuts back to what’s likely his preferred trip after tiring going a mile last time out. His two-back effort saw him stalk a hot pace while wide, and I think he could factor here at a price if he can work out a trip that allows him to save a bit more ground.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,040.83

Singer, songwriter, and American hero Dolly Parton passed away Tuesday. If you can spare four minutes, go watch her performance of “Jolene” at the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame in 2022. She’s accompanied by a litany of world-class musicians, with the Zac Brown Band playing backup and artists like Pink, Pat Benatar, and Sheryl Crow contributing on vocals. It got in my head at about 1 pm Tuesday and hasn’t left.

As an additional gift, I bestow upon you an all-time “dad joke.” My friend Joe lost a ton of weight recently thanks to what he called the Dolly Parton diet. It made Joe lean, Joe lean, Joe lean, Joe leeeeean…

I hear you booing, and I’m not sorry.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: My Pick Four fizzled immediately, and best bet Raised was pulled up in the finale. After scratches, I dropped $48.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I have two strong opinions back-to-back in the seventh and eighth races, where I really like #9 BLACKJACK and #5 RIVER OF DECEIT. I’ll have $20 win bets on each horse, and I’ll link them in a cold $10 double. If I’m right once, it’s a good day. If I’m right twice, it’s a great one.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: River of Deceit, Race 8
Longshot: Manor Park, Race 9

R1

Fun Toph Fun
Daddy’s Ready
Beltandsuspenders

#2 FUN TOPH FUN (9/5): Had an eventful trip in her debut at Monmouth, where she was third after checking in the stretch. It’s safe to say she learned a lot that day, Manny Franco hops aboard, and she’ll be tough if he takes a logical step forward in the Thursday opener; #3 DADDY’S READY (5-1): Debuts for Linda Rice, whose first-out numbers are just-OK, but she has a few OK works downstate at Belmont, including a solid gate drill on August 10th. It’s not like there are any monsters signed on, and jockey Jose Lezcano has started to eat up after a long dry spell to start the meet; #1 BELTANDSUSPENDERS (2-1): Made up ground to be third at this level and route earlier this summer for a trainer whose horses almost always need a race to get going. Flavien Prat hops aboard, and even though the rail draw may not be ideal, she can’t be dismissed.

R2

Wingfoot
Ice House
Royal Merit

#3 WINGFOOT (7/2): Showed improvement first off the claim for Linda Rice, when he led briefly in a similar event at Ellis before settling for second. He was second of 12 that day, and he stalked a pretty hot pace. I think he’s found his friends in here, and that he’s a logical candidate to spring an upset; #6 ICE HOUSE (3/5): May be a heavy favorite, but I have some doubts. Yes, he runs for a tag for the first time, but it’s worth noting he drops in out of a race for New York-breds, so it’s not as big a drop as it could be. He’s got early speed, but he also doesn’t figure to be alone up front, and I don’t think he’s a cinch; #1 ROYAL MERIT (8-1): Has had quite a few chances, but he’s also shown an ability to pass others late, and that could come in handy. If there’s a pace meltdown, he’s the one that could benefit the most.

R3

Wynstock (MTO)
Capitol Hill
Yinzer

#3 CAPITOL HILL (8/5): Drops in after chasing the likes of Deterministic, Mi Bago, and Zulu Kingdom, and he’ll get to run with Lasix again. He won two in a row in his last pair of starts with the medication, and he should get plenty of pace to run at in this spot. Between the class drop and the likely race shape, I think he’ll be tough; #5 YINZER (9/5): Wired the field at this distance last time out, and that day’s runner-up came back to win at next asking. He may face some more heat up front in here, but it’s also possible he’s in career-best form midway through his 4-year-old season; #2 PIERRE (8-1): Seems like the best of the rest, as he’ll look for his third straight score in his first start for new trainer David Jacobson. Whether or not his form will travel to the Spa is anyone’s guess, but he could sit a stalking trip and have first run at a bit of a price.

R4

First Call Bob
Sequential
Bedard

#5 FIRST CALL BOB (8-1): Bailed out heavy chalk players with a big late move last time out. I don’t think he beat much that day, but he’s the only horse in here that has consistently shown he can pass others late. That gives him a tepid nod in what hits me as a wide-open race; #6 SEQUENTIAL (5-1): Stretches out to two turns for Orlando Noda after a too-bad-to-be-true effort last time out. His two-back win going a mile was sharp, and the recent bullet drill inspires some confidence (even if the distance is a bit of a question mark); #4 BEDARD (8/5): Did everything but win going seven furlongs last time out, but settled for second. His only prior outing at this distance was a win last February at Oaklawn, and the presence of Kendrick Carmouche indicates he’ll be forwardly-placed.

R5

Rockabye (AE)
Quartz Mountain (AE)
Brickyard Belle

#14 ROCKABYE (2-1): Needs quite a few scratches to run but looms large if she’s able to make the gate. Her two efforts this meet have been fine, and she was second behind a good-looking winner last time out. It’s unlikely she’ll get to go, but if she does, she hits me as the one to beat; #10 QUARTZ MOUNTAIN (4-1): Only needs two scratches to run and set a very fast pace in her debut. She was a heavy favorite that day, but she may well have needed that first-out effort. A step forward may mean she’s able to make every pole a winning one; #3 BRICKYARD BELLE (8-1): Hammered for $600,000 at auction earlier this year, and of the runners in the body of the field, this is the one I’m most intrigued by. She’s kin to multiple stakes winner Joe Shiesty and Grade 2-placed turfer Johnny Unleashed, among others, and this daughter of Yaupon has every right to be talented.

R6

Swaging (MTO)
Light Cav
Sharons Pharoah

#5 LIGHT CAV (9/2): Cuts back in distance and drops in class for Mike Maker, who’s enlisted Flavien Prat to ride. His prior two-turn races on turf in Indiana were both fine, and there’s enough speed in this field to give him a chance to rally late and get the money; #6 SHARONS PHAROAH (3-1): Takes a big drop in class for Jonathan Thomas, who doesn’t have many horses but wins at a high clip. He started his career with two solid races on the lawn at Santa Anita, and these shallower waters may be what he needs to find the winner’s circle again; #3 MAXIMUM PROMISE (4-1): Gets back to what’s probably the right level after being way wide most of the way last time out. His two-back effort here wasn’t a bad one, and that day’s rider, Ricardo Santana, Jr., is slated to ride back.

R7

Blackjack
Covered Option
Cybertapping

#9 BLACKJACK (5-1): Drops in class, even though the form doesn’t necessarily show it. He’s run against open maiden special weight foes twice (including Booked first time out). Here, he gets a group of runners that sold or RNA’d for $65,000 or less. That’s a significant class drop, and I’m expecting him to run like it; #1 COVERED OPTION (8-1): Made a middle move in his debut before settling for third money. This barn’s first-time starters generally need a race to get going, and Luis Saez seeing fit to ride back hits me as a good thing; #2 CYBERTAPPING (10-1): Is worth a look in his debut at a price off of a very solid gate work downstate. The pedigree (by Cyberknife, out of a Tapit mare) hints that he may want to go longer, but Manny Franco being aboard is a plus, and it’s not often we get a price on a Franco-ridden, Rice-trained runner.

R8

River of Deceit
Wood Island
Titan Ready

#5 RIVER OF DECEIT (5/2): Made up some ground in his debut back in June before settling for second. That was a swiftly-run race, and this outfit’s debuting runners aren’t always fully-cranked. A logical step forward in the Skidmore could mean he breaks his maiden in style; #8 WOOD ISLAND (7/2): Went wire-to-wire in his debut, which came in an off-the-turf race last month. He didn’t beat a lot that day, and he’s only worked once since, but Prat hops on for George Weaver, and he was entered for turf on that occasion, so his form could move to the lawn; #6 TITAN READY (8/5): Has come up just short in a pair of races at Woodbine, including the Victoria in mid-July. Brad Cox trains him now, and he’s as good as it gets, but can his synthetic form go to the grass? Given that there seems to be some talent in this field, it might have to.

R9

How Much Is Enough (MTO)
Coach Case
Manor Park

#4 COACH CASE (8/5): Gets one more chance from me after coming up just short as a 9/5 favorite last time out. He chased a loose-on-the-lead winner that day, and he was four lengths clear of the third-place finisher. A similar race could get him the winner’s share of the purse in the Thursday finale; #3 MANOR PARK (12-1): Tried stakes company last time out and was outclassed. He gets Lasix here, is allowed to run at what’s probably the correct level, and a repeat of the two-back effort (where he edged a next-out winner) would put him right there at a price; #6 NAGUILE (6-1): Feels like the controlling speed and gets Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez. Being the lone speed is often a great thing going two turns on the inner turf, and the field he ran against last time is probably better than this bunch.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,088.83

It almost certainly wasn’t malicious, but what happened Sunday at Saratoga is inexcusable.

Chief of Peace went postward for the second with Ricardo Santana, Jr., listed to ride. He was listed on television, on Equibase, and on wagering websites. Chief of Peace won the race, and after it was over, celebrations of a Santana riding double quickly turned to people saying, “…wait a minute, that’s Javier Castellano.”

Bettors were not alerted to this, and the “race day changes” section on Equibase’s website did not reflect Castellano as the rider until 45 minutes after the race happened. NYRA’s communications team did not respond to multiple requests for comment on Sunday, but Equibase put out a short statement on Twitter that blamed this on, “a program production error.”

Whatever the case may have been, bettors once again took it on the chin, as they didn’t have anything resembling correct information before the race went off. Imagine paying full-price to go to a Knicks game, on the basis you’ll see Jalen Brunson, only for the Knicks to trot out some random person in Brunson’s uniform. You can’t, because it would never happen in any major sport.

I don’t think there was nefarious intent to this, and I think conspiracy theorists on Twitter who saw it that way are barking up the wrong tree. However, it’s the latest “should not occur” moment for an industry that has seemingly gone out of its way to pile those up over the course of the last month.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: My action was cancelled when the seventh race got rained off the turf. I blame NYRA Bets tournament czar Jackson Muniz for this, as he committed the cardinal sin of tweeting, “looks like we lucked out with the rain!” You’re awesome, Jackson, but I hope you learned a valuable lesson about, to steal a phrase from the great Toby Ziegler, tempting the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: With only eight races on the card, I can play the late Pick Four, which hits me as a fun sequence. My 50-cent ticket starts in the fifth and goes as follows: 8,9 with ALL with 1,2,3,6,7 with 9. In addition, I’ll have a $20 win bet on #9 RAISED (my best bet of the day) in the finale.

TOTAL WAGERED: $60.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Raised, Race 8
Longshot: Mr. Rogers, Race 5

R1

Cody’s Approval
Lady Starstruck
Dotsy

#7 CODY’S APPROVAL (2-1): Gets a tepid nod in what looks like a pretty wide-open lid-lifter. He was a decent second last time out against similar restricted maidens, and he draws a handy outside post beneath Jose Ortiz, who will likely ensure he’s forwardly-placed; #3 LADY STARSTRUCK (7/2): Debuts for George Weaver and attracts Flavien Prat, both of which will draw plenty of attention. She’s kin to a pair of stakes horses and has worked well, though the bottom side of her pedigree does hint she may do her best running on turf or synthetic, not dirt; #5 DOTSY (8-1): Is worth a look at a price. Her dam has six prior winners to her credit, and her second dam threw, among others, graded stakes winner Voodoo. These high-percentage connections could’ve easily stayed at Finger Lakes, so shipping here makes me feel like she’s got some potential.

R2

Magnanimous Max (MTO)
Unit Economics
Brigadier General

#7 UNIT ECONOMICS (4/5): Figures to be a very heavy favorite if this event stays on the turf. He came off a long layoff against optional claiming foes last time out and takes a massive drop in class for connections that aren’t afraid to lose horses via the claim box. If he steps forward at all, he’ll be tough to beat; #5 BRIGADIER GENERAL (4-1): Tries turf for the first time here, and while he was pretty good on dirt several years ago, the pedigree (by Street Sense, out of a Giant’s Causeway mare) hints that he could like the lawn. I also like that he may be the lone speed, which can go a long way in inner turf races; #6 RIGHT TO WIN (8-1): Didn’t break well in his return to the races last month at Ellis and is another dropping in class. His lone local start prior to this was a victory last summer, which came during a stretch where he won three of four starts before going to the bench.

R3

Timia
Sabby Sunset
Our Preferred Pal

#5 TIMIA (8/5): Hasn’t won in a while, but she also hasn’t been worse than third since mid-December, and that includes seven starts at this level. She does want to be forward, and the pace will likely be quick, but she has at least shown an ability to stalk, which could be the right trip; #7 SABBY SUNSET (15-1): Is one of only a few that has shown she can pass others late. She comes in off of a win over much weaker at Finger Lakes, but I like how she did it, rating before pouncing on the turn. I wouldn’t be surprised if she drops back and is able to pick up some pieces at a price; #6 OUR PREFERRED PAL (3-1): Did a lot right last time when second in a one-mile race here, as she set a solid pace before yielding to a much-the-best winner. Her lone win to date came at this seven-furlong distance back in April, and the rider switch to Manny Franco is a notable one.

R4

Vajra
My Divine Spirit
Saint Tropez

#1 VAJRA (7/2): Came back running when third in her first try since last August at Ellis Park. She pressed a hot pace that day and has a right to improve second off the layoff beneath Flavien Prat, who could have some options provided she breaks well from the inside draw; #8 MY DIVINE SPIRIT (5-1): Was another that came off a long break last time. She hadn’t run since October and likely needed the race. Her two-back effort downstate was a good one, as she was second behind a next-out winner, and channeling that form would make her a contender; #2 SAINT TROPEZ (9/2): Showed speed in her debut on the Fourth of July and shortens up to a sprint at second asking. Ricardo Santana, Jr., could have her on or near the lead again, and if she’s sharper with a race under her belt, she wouldn’t be a surprising winner.

R5

Al Mowashaah
Mr. Rogers
Jordan the Caddy

#9 AL MOWASHAAH (5/2): Ran well last time out and finished second behind a runner that got loose on the lead and forgot to stop. The listed rider will change, as Irad Ortiz, Jr., is injured, but anything close to that effort would give this one a big shot to earn the diploma; #8 MR. ROGERS (15-1): Debuts for Melanie Giddings and is bred to be a very good turf horse. This son of Munnings is kin to Grade 2-placed surfer Harry Hood, and his dam is a half-sister to English Group 3 winner Ladys First, among others. He’ll be a price, but I think he’s very interesting; #10 JORDAN THE CADDY (12-1): Is one of two Linda Rice trainees, and I’d like him much more with a better post. His dam was a multiple Grade 3 winner on Woodbine’s synthetic surface, and I don’t think the distance will be what beats him. The question is, can Jose Lezcano find a way to save some ground?

R6

Secured Landing
Glen Airy
Unload

#2 SECURED LANDING (4-1): Was part of a pace that melted down going two turns last time out, and he cuts back in distance for this wide-open event out of the Wilson chute. Inside speed is powerful in these races, and he’s won seven of 11 lifetime starts at this one-mile trip (though, to be fair, many of those came against weaker competition); #6 GLEN AIRY (5/2): Was an easy winner going long here just 12 days ago and got claimed by Linda Rice that day. I’m not sure what he beat that day, and this seems like a more challenging spot, but he’s shown an ability to make up ground, and he’d benefit from a horse or two trying to go with my top pick out of the gate; #7 UNLOAD (7/2): Ships up from Texas for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, and while the last-out effort at Lone Star wasn’t great, he did run fairly well a few times earlier this year at Oaklawn. If he brings that form with him, he’ll stand a big chance, even if the post position isn’t ideal.

R7

More Champagne
Side Quest
Luminous Beauty

#1 MORE CHAMPAGNE (4-1): Isn’t just a hunch play, as I think she’ll benefit from the likely race shape in the Bolton Landing. She rated, pounced, and drew away convincingly at first asking at Keeneland before flopping at Royal Ascot. Tom Morley trainees aren’t always fully-cranked at first asking, and if she can sit off what figures to be a hot pace, she’ll have every chance to strut her stuff; #3 SIDE QUEST (5/2): Was very professional in earning the diploma last time out, as she stalked and rolled to a convincing win at this route. I’m not sure what she beat that day, but she looked very good, and when Will Walden gets horses on the right track, they tend to stay there; #7 LUMINOUS BEAUTY (10-1): Tries turf after finishing a solid second in the Grade 3 Adirondack on dirt. Sire Flameaway has shown he can produce precocious turf horses, and dam Sly Beauty contested this very race back in 2017 before accomplishing quite a bit at Woodbine.

R8

Raised
Starship Lizzy
All Bright

#9 RAISED (3-1): Was claimed after a disappointing debut at Churchill and ran a solid third at Ellis. That day’s winner came back to win again at next asking, and while Ron Moquett hasn’t won yet at the meet, this one looks very live. I vastly prefer the race she exits to ones others come out of, and any further progression would make her tough to top; #3 STARSHIP LIZZY (9/2): Put forth a challenge in her return to the races last time out but was repelled and settled for second. That was her first try since November, and while I suppose she could improve second off the layoff, they crawled home that day, and I’m just not sure another furlong is what she wants; #1 ALL BRIGHT (7/2): Ran third behind my second choice last time out and attracts Jose Ortiz in the Wednesday finale. That rider switch is a big one, and if it propels her forward, she could be a factor, although inside-drawn closers sometimes need quite a bit to go right.