BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,083.25

The folks behind the Preakness Stakes are actively trying to move the second leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown. Predictably, this has drawn the usual firestorm of Triple Crown debate, with traditionalists going against those who believe the Preakness simply has to be moved to preserve the race’s viability.

My stance is different from…well, from that of pretty much anyone. I don’t think you change the races. I DO think you change the way horses are bred.

Thoroughbreds simply aren’t bred to run often anymore. They’re bred for whatever “brilliance” is, which nobody can define but apparently shows up a lot at 2-year-old sales where still-growing horses are asked to go all-out for an eighth of a mile over souped-up tracks. In many instances, that race, against nothing but a clock, is the most important one they’ll ever run.

I’ve talked to breeders who hate when I make this argument. I respect them, but I disagree. At a minimum, can’t we admit parts of the system are backwards and do something about it?

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: This one hurt. Lastchanceatglory ran well, but finished second behind my 9-1 third choice. As such, I dropped $50.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll go to the third race, where I’m betting the August 3rd event a few favorites exit is a weak one. I’ll try to beat those horses by using #2 TIMED OUT and #6 VITAEMI on top of $5 exactas that use those two, #1 SUSPENDED CAMPAIGN, and #7 ITS COLD IN DEHERE underneath.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Sunday: 3-for-10
Meet: 42-for-136

Best Bet: Showemyourheels, Race 9
Longshot: Vitaemi, Race 3

R1

Grab the Glory
Run for Your Honey
Bernietakescharge

#9 GRAB THE GLORY (5-1): Has disappointed in a few starts so far but gets another shot from me thanks to the added distance, which she’s bred to love. Her two turf starts to date weren’t that bad, and assuming this stays on the lawn, I think there’s plenty to like; #5 RUN FOR YOUR HONEY (9/2): Has shown more early speed than any other runner in this field and may make the lead by default. She’s run alright on both turf and dirt to this point and may be the one they have to catch; #2 BERNIETAKESCHARGE (6-1): Debuted with a decent third-place finish at a price earlier this month and has every right to improve at second asking. She showed an ability to rate, which isn’t easy for most first-time starters to do.

R2

Tres Chic
Dark Princess
Graceful

This is an absolutely horrible race where I have no strong opinion. #5 TRES CHIC (6-1) is a top pick solely because she’s had some excuses in her two races to date and comes in off of a few OK workouts. If you’re playing this race, go as deep as you can.

R3

Vitaemi
Timed Out
Suspended Campaign

#6 VITAEMI (9/2): Dueled through very fast fractions last time out in her local debut, and I don’t think she’ll have to work quite as hard to make the lead here. She’s proven at this distance and seems plenty talented enough to spring an upset; #2 TIMED OUT (7/2): Has run several solid races at Finger Lakes, comes in off of two bullet drills, and attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr., when that rider probably had a few options. Her lone recent run at this distance wasn’t bad, and she can win this on her best day; #1 SUSPENDED CAMPAIGN (6/5): Goes first off the claim for Linda Rice after a last-out win at this route. As I mentioned earlier, I simply don’t think that race was a great one, and at this one’s likely price, I’ll try to beat her.

R4

Shigeko (MTO)
World Traveler
Explosive Exchange

#5 WORLD TRAVELER (7/2): May benefit from the likely race shape as a closer going against many runners with early speed. The faster they go early on, the better this one’s chances figure to be; #3 EXPLOSIVE EXCHANGE (8-1): Is better than he showed last time out, when he may have bounced off of an impressive two-back score. Joel Rosario sees fit to ride, and if nothing else, he’ll be heard from out of the gate; #8 THREE GIRLS (6-1): Graduated against maiden claimers last time out and never looked like a loser on that occasion. She does take a step up in class here, but it’s not like this is the strongest race for the level and perhaps she’s in strong form.

R5

Chileno (MTO)
Unleash the Power
Shinsun

#10 UNLEASH THE POWER (3-1): Ran second behind My Sea Cottage last time out, and that one ran reasonably well in the Grade 1 Fourstardave last weekend. He’s been chasing far better horses than these of late, and this represents as good a chance as any for him to break the drought; #4 SHINSUN (4-1): Is a closer in a race with some speed signed on, which gives him a shot in what seems like a pretty wide-open event. He might have moved a bit too early last time, and he fits on speed figures; #5 FRONT MAN (6-1): Was a bit one-paced when fourth last time out, but won two back and has a history of running well on turf courses with some give in the ground. If the turf course is less than firm, I think he moves up considerably.

R6

Cupid’s Heart
Portage
Cuz Ur Pretty

#7 CUPID’S HEART (9/5): Ran a close-up second in a swiftly-run allowance race earlier in the meet, one where she was four lengths clear of the third-place finisher. The cutback to six furlongs may only help her, and I think she’s strictly the one to beat; #8 PORTAGE (7/2): Improved in her second start for Linda Rice to break her maiden in smart fashion. This isn’t an easy spot to face winners for the first time, but she draws a great post and could still be improving; #4 CUZ UR PRETTY (9/2): Ships in from Finger Lakes, where she’s won four of five lifetime starts and has done so in impressive fashion. This is certainly a class test, but she could prove to be fastest early and leave this field with something to do turning for home.

R7

South Street
Freeze Pop
Lucky Lucky Luke

#7 SOUTH STREET (even): Hasn’t won in quite a while and was a distant third last time out, but he drops in class significantly and that could wake him up. He’s won going two turns before, and his best effort almost certainly beats these; #3 FREEZE POP (4-1): Goes first off the claim for Robertino Diodoro, who’s been quiet this meet but can certainly move new acquisitions forward. He and my top pick are the only two horses in here to win going two turns on dirt, and that matters; #2 LUCKY LUCKY LUKE (7/2): Comes in off of a failed turf experiment last time out and returns to his preferred surface. His three-back win was very sharp, and perhaps he was just in too deep against allowance foes in his two-back try.

R8

Amanda’s Folly (MTO)
Orange Freeze
Smokie Eyes

#7 ORANGE FREEZE (5-1): Has stepped forward considerably in her last two starts, one of which was a win in a similar stakes race. She should get some speed to run at again here, and when this barn gets horses on the right path, they tend to stay there; #2 SMOKIE EYES (6-1): Has a record that looks far better if you toss her races at Belmont Park. Perhaps she hasn’t improved from two to three, but her two-turn races look sharp and she’d be a contender if she can get back to that form; #5 SILVER SKILLET (2-1): Comes in off of a win against older, but hits me as a bad favorite. That day’s runner-up is a money-burner that did so again last week, and while she fits on figures, I think she’s an underlay at her likely price.

R9

Marley’s Ghost (MTO)
Showemyourheels
Red Butterfly

#2 SHOWEMYOURHEELS (2-1): Hasn’t been seen since November, but has been training steadily ahead of her return and attracts Luis Saez. Her lone race over this turf course was a pretty good one, and she looms large if she’s ready to run; #4 RED BUTTERFLY (7/2): Has run well twice against similar company this year and was fourth behind a winner I think is a bit live earlier in the card. This barn has been cold this meet, but she fits on figures; BOND ENTRY (5-1): I prefer #1A PAUCILOQUENT, who needs a scratch to draw in. She’s shown an ability to close in her last several starts, and this barn’s horses are punching above their weight class at this stand.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,133.25

I’ve got one more day left at Saratoga before I fly back to the West Coast on Monday night. We all know it’s been an extremely difficult meet, for any number of reasons. I’ve said numerous times, in-person and on social media, that if something can go wrong this summer in upstate New York, it probably will.

Saturday’s events, though, spurred a unanimous, massive sigh of relief from the crowd at the Spa. Significant storms barreled through New York, and while we got a few showers during the day, the card went off without a hitch. The Pick Five seeded with an extra $100,000 drew seven figures in handle, Rhyme Schemes blew away the field in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special, and Casa Creed, one of the coolest horses in training, captured his second straight renewal of the Grade 1 Fourstardave.

I need to be careful not to minimize the struggles of this meet to date, because that would be a mistake. Breakdowns have happened (one of which is the worst one I’ve ever seen), weather has been an issue, nearby power lines have come down, and a hastily-announced surface switch on a big day left scrambling handicappers positively furious. On Saturday, though, Saratoga felt like Saratoga, and that’s a step in the right direction.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: It was a good day all around, with six top-pick winners and a profit in this section. Rheaume was left with too much to do late and only managed a third-place finish, but Spinning Colors won at a bit of a price and keyed a nice exacta. In total, a $50 investment returned $111.75.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the first half of the card. First, let’s roll with $3 doubles starting in the second with #2 NIKITIS, #3 SEA DANCER, and #9 DR. RAY D. and ending in the third with #5 LASTCHANCEATGLORY. I’ll also single Lastchanceatglory to start $3 doubles that end in the fourth with #4 CITY FEVER, #5 AMERICAN KNOW HOW, and #7 CUMBERLAND. I’ll combine all of those horses in a $1 Pick Three starting in the second, and finally, I’ll put $23 on Lastchanceatglory to win.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Saturday: 6-for-11
Meet: 39-for-126

Best Bet: Magic Tap, Race 8
Longshot: Khozeiress, Race 7

R1

Exhilarate
Genetics
Clearly a Test

#1 EXHILARATE (4-1): Debuted by rallying for third going shorter downstate, and everything about her pedigree says she’ll improve with distance and experience. The stretchout to seven furlongs should help this daughter of Elate, who did lots of good things going longer; #5 GENETICS (6-1): Completes a strong 1-2 punch for Bill Mott, who also trains my top pick. She’s got several strong works and fetched $525,000 at last September’s Keeneland sale; #7 CLEARLY A TEST (5/2): Was fourth in her debut on opening day and has every right to improve off of that performance. Of those in here that have run before, she clearly has the fastest speed figures; the question is, was that number legitimate? With races involving young 2-year-olds, that’s sometimes murky.

R2

Nikitis
Dr. Ray D
Sea Dancer

#2 NIKITIS (3-1): Hammered for $535,000 at OBS earlier this year despite a pretty modest pedigree, so she must’ve impressed a few people. She has a recent five-furlong gate drill that’s very strong and hints she wants this two-turn route; #9 DR. RAY D. (6-1): Made up some ground late to be third in her debut for a barn whose firsters aren’t usually fully cranked. Javier Castellano hops aboard this daughter of Constitution, whose offspring can certainly be better going long; #3 SEA DANCER (9/2): Comes out of the same race as my second choice. She was fourth that day, and while she’s another that could certainly move forward, Flavien Prat hopping off is a legitimate concern.

R3

Lastchanceatglory
Jemography
Senor Jobim

#5 LASTCHANCEATGLORY (2-1): Has won five of his last seven starts dating back to July of 2022 and seems like a very formidable favorite here. He cuts back a bit after emerging victorious at this level earlier in the meet, and that day’s runner-up came back to win; #2 JEMOGRAPHY (5-1): Is protected from being claimed, which is an angle I’m always fond of. I think that signals the barn likes the horse and doesn’t want to lose it. He was third at this level when last seen back in February and has won 11 of 44 lifetime starts; #7 SENOR JOBIM (8-1): Hasn’t won in a while but may have needed his last-out effort. The 9-year-old was third that day, but he’s got a decent late kick and could benefit from a speed duel early on.

R4

City Fever
Cumberland
American Know How

#4 CITY FEVER (5/2): Came up just short in his debut earlier in the meet, where he missed by a nose and may have been compromised by a rough start. Irad sees fit to ride back, and a step forward with experience probably gets the job done; #7 CUMBERLAND (6-1): Was vanned off after a clunker last time out at Belmont, so I have no problem drawing a line through that race. He adds blinkers for George Weaver, and his races earlier this year at Gulfstream were solid; #5 AMERICAN KNOW HOW (5-1): Was third in the race my top pick exits and showed significant improvement that day at odds of 24-1. Whether or not that was a fluke remains to be seen, but he’s a contender if he can replicate that effort.

R5

Paddington (MTO)
Operation Torch
Brown entry

#4 OPERATION TORCH (6/5): Was second behind Program Trading last time out, and that one came right back to win a stakes race earlier this summer. This field seems significantly weaker than that one, and he seems tough to go against assuming this stays on turf; BROWN ENTRY (2-1): #1A ACTIVIST INVESTING hasn’t run since October, but gets Lasix for the first time and has been working consistently for one of the top barns on the circuit. He’s a contender if he’s ready to run; #3 OUR DREAM RYE’D (12-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while but has also been running against some very good horses. Add in that he’s been gelded since his last start, and I think he could get a piece of this at a big price.

R6

Echo Lake
Zadorsky
Lady Prospect

#5 ECHO LAKE (4-1): Debuts for Chad Brown off of a few strong four-furlong drills. Of the three foals to race out of this dam, two are winners, and the dam herself is kin to graded stakes-placed mare Divine Elegance; #2 ZADORSKY (5/2): Has an experience edge over this group and comes in off of two races at Ellis Park. How that form will translate to Saratoga is tricky to guess, but the July 28th work hints she can handle this surface; #9 LADY PROSPECT (6-1): Comes from a barn with less-than-impressive first-out numbers, but she’s been working well and attracts Luis Saez, who may have had a few options in here. There’s some class in her female family, and she draws well for her unveiling here.

R7

Vittorio
Guntown
Khozeiress

#1 VITTORIO (7/5): Hasn’t won in quite a while but merits a reluctant top pick in a puzzling optional claimer. Irad hopping on is always a notable rider switch, and that two-back race at this distance was a swiftly-run event where the winner came right back to win again; #2 GUNTOWN (3-1): Improved first off the claim for Linda Rice when second out of the Wilson chute and cuts back in distance here. He’s hit the board in both of his prior seven-furlong starts and should be running well late; #3 KHOZEIHERESS (8-1): Has done good work at Gulfstream, where he hasn’t been worse than third in six career starts. That includes a hard-luck second in the Carry Back last time out, and while this is a much different surface, he’s a contender if he brings his form with him.

R8

Magic Tap
Dreamlike
Film Star

#7 MAGIC TAP (5/2): Lost a photo last time out at Ellis Park when he ran into Tapit’s Conquest, who’s a talented runner at his best. His two-back win was excellent, and I really love this Asmussen work pattern when it pops up. I see a two-back bullet and a last-out maintenance work, which to me hints this barn has him where they want him; #3 DREAMLIKE (3-1): Romped over maidens last time out after finishing third behind Lord Miles in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial. I don’t think he beat a ton that day, though the runner-up did win Friday, and my guess is he’ll be the one that goes favored, not my top pick; #5 FILM STAR (4-1): Has run second on four straight occasions, including once here going a bit longer. He fits on speed figures and does have an experience edge over the two likely favorites.

R9

He’smyhoneybadger
Willy Boi
Shooters Shoot

#7 HE’SMYHONEYBADGER (5-1): Has a last-out effort that hits me as a total throw-out. It was such a stark departure from the form he showed two and three back, and if he can get back to that type of effort here, I think he’ll be a tough customer; #2 WILLY BOI (9/2): Gets significant class relief after spending most of the past two years going against much better horses. He was third in last year’s Grade 1 Vanderbilt behind Jackie’s Warrior, and he’s shown he enjoys this tricky seven-furlong distance; #6 SHOOTERS SHOOT (7/2): Goes third off the layoff and gets some class relief after running into several stakes-caliber sprinters last time out. He hasn’t won in quite a while, but like many in here, he’s been running against classy horses and has placed in a few stakes races himself.

R10

Uncashed
Gaslight Dancer
No Nay Hudson

#4 UNCASHED (3-1): Has reeled off four wins in a row, including one in an off-the-turf stakes race here earlier this summer. The bottom side of his pedigree has plenty of turf, and when Larry Rivelli gets horses on the right track, they tend to stay there; #2 GASLIGHT DANCER (5-1): May have bounced last time out off of a two-back stakes score at Keeneland. His record looks considerably better if you toss his race on Breeders’ Cup day last year, which was probably just too far for him; #5 NO NAY HUDSON (6-1): Broke a long drought last time out at Churchill and comes into the Mahony off of a four-furlong bullet drill over the Oklahoma’s turf course. He showed a new dimension in that recent score, which should give his rider plenty of options here.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,071.50

Family day at the track Friday was awesome. I came to the track with my dad as a kid, fell in love with the sport from a young age, and now get to help my two nieces do the same thing. I’m incredibly tired from a long day of being the fun uncle, but that’s a pretty great gig.

It was also very cool to spend some time with so many people I’ve gotten a chance to get to know online over the years. Matt DeSantis had me on as part of a NYRA Bets video, which was a lot of fun (even though that aged like spoiled milk because General Jim ran terribly!), and my dad remarked that the stream of visitors was akin to the Pope having an audience. I always get a kick out of that.

If I’ve seen you, know that I think you’re awesome. If I haven’t, I’ve got two days left!

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: My key horse in the seventh was nowhere. I dropped $40.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to wait until the finale, where I think #10 RHEAUME is very live at a bit of a price. I’ll have a $26 win bet on that one, and I’ll put her and #1 SPINNING COLORS on top of $3 exactas that use those two, #2 WATERVILLE, #4 STELLA MARS, and #7 LATEST EDITION underneath.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Friday: 4-for-11
Meet: 33-for-115

Best Bet: Ocean Mermaid, Race 2
Longshot: Mim, Race 6

R1

Tall Paul
Quiet Wisdom
Apollo Code

#5 TALL PAUL (8/5): It’s not often Bob Baffert ships east for something other than a stakes race, but he’s got a promising NY-bred that fits this condition, so here we go. He debuted running third at Del Mar, and any sort of a step forward will make him tough to beat; #8 QUIET WISDOM (4-1): Seems the most logical of the first-time starters. The Todd Pletcher trainee draws a cushy outside post, comes in off of a bullet drill downstate, and has every right to be a runner; #3 APOLLO CODE (4-1): Was second beaten a neck in his unveiling at Monmouth Park. He adds blinkers for this one and has every right to improve at second asking (though he probably has to in what seems like a loaded field for the level).

R2

Ocean Mermaid
Three Diamonds entry
Glacial Power

#7 OCEAN MERMAID (8/5): Debuted running second in a $100,000 stakes race at Gulfstream, one that had a trip to Royal Ascot on the line. That day’s winner came right back to win again, and this one was nearly a half-dozen lengths clear of the third-place finisher; THREE DIAMONDS ENTRY (5-1): I prefer #1A BETTER LUCK, who’s bred up and down for turf. This barn has already won several times at this stand, and the last few workouts from the gate seem decent enough; #8 GLACIAL POWER (10-1): Rallied to be fourth in his debut despite losing all chance at the break that day. I like it when a first-time starter shows an ability to make up ground late. He did that, and I wouldn’t ignore him in your vertical exotics wagers.

R3

Sa Foradada
Mursal
Freudian

#2 SA FORADADA (3-1): Has run second five times in a row, but was flattered when the last-out winner came right back to win again. She didn’t have the easiest of trips that afternoon and might benefit from stretching back out to a one-mile trip; #6 MURSAL (4-1): Completes a formidable 1-2 punch for Rick Dutrow and was third in the race my top pick exits. She’ll likely be up close early and might sit an ideal stalking trip just behind what figures to be a solid pace; #3 FREUDIAN (5/2): Got pretty good at Aqueduct earlier this year, where she won two in a row before a pair of failed turf experiments. Her last-out second at Monmouth was fine, but I think this field might be a bit tougher, and the morning line price hits me as an underlay.

R4

One Giant Leap
Kupp
Dangerous Ride

#6 ONE GIANT LEAP (2-1): Has won two in a row and comes in off of a freshening for Wesley Ward. He’s been gelded since his most recent effort, which was a sharp victory against $50,000 claimers at Keeneland, and this field might be a bit weaker; #5 KUPP (4-1): Has won two in a row and ships in for Ron Moquett to run in this spot. The two races he exits came back pretty fast on figures, and I like that he sat back a bit last time out and showed some versatility; #1 DANGEROUS RIDE (6-1): Has come up against a bunch of really strong fields in the past and drops to the weakest level he’s ever run at. He’s got some early speed and could be the one they have to catch turning for home.

R5

Deterministic
Informed Patriot
Eliminate

#5 DETERMINISTIC (5-1): Hammered for $625,000 at Keeneland last year and sports a work tab with several very strong drills over the Oklahoma training track. Debuting going seven furlongs isn’t an easy ask, but only one of these horses has experience and he’s bred to want this trip; #8 INFORMED PATRIOT (6-1): Sports a few strong five-furlong workouts and has the Asmussen work tab I love to see, with a strong two-back work followed by a maintenance move. The outside draw should be a plus, and we might get a bit of a price here, too; #1 ELIMINATE (9/5): Has every right to be a runner and comes in off of a series of strong drills for Todd Pletcher. My hesitation is that none of those workouts came at longer than four furlongs, and the rail draw isn’t ideal. Still, he’s absolutely a contender, even if my reservations mean I won’t take him on top at a short price.

R6

Richies Princess
Mim
Nolita

#11 RICHIES PRINCESS (7/2): Debuts here for Larry Rivelli, who doesn’t run many on this circuit but has a NY-bred that fits the condition. The lone local drill was a lights-out move on August 5th, and this seems like a pretty soft spot for the level; #9 MIM (8-1): Gets Lasix for the first time and had the second-fastest work behind my top pick on that morning last week. She goes third off the bench here and could be sitting on a bigger effort at a square price; #2 NOLITA (5-1): Debuted by rallying to finish third in the mud at Belmont and could improve off of that effort. The rail draw is a concern given how she started that day, but she’s got a chance to graduate at second asking with a smooth trip.

R7

Obrigada (MTO)
Love Reigns
Stone Silent

#8 LOVE REIGNS (5/2): Has a record that looks far better if you draw a line through her clunker on Breeders’ Cup Day last year. She doesn’t run a whole lot, but on her best day, she’s an extremely talented filly, and she looms large in the Galway; #9 STONE SILENT (9/2): Seems like the main speed in a rare turf sprint that’s otherwise pretty light on it. Her last-out score in Indiana was very sharp, and her game plan seems pretty straightforward; #4 LOVE APPEALS (6-1): Had a genuine excuse last time out, when she blew the break against several of these at Monmouth and still rallied to finish third by just a neck. Her early-2023 races were sharp, and she’s a contender if the race sets up for a closer.

R8

Rhyme Schemes
Haul
Edified

#6 RHYME SCHEMES (4/5): Is an obvious favorite given his impressive last-out score at Ellis Park, where he earned a 92 Beyer Speed Figure. If he can run back to that performance, he’s going to be very tough to beat in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special; #4 HAUL (3-1): Stalked and pounced to win his debut last month at Belmont and makes a logical step up into stakes company. Pletcher and Ortiz must be respected, and the recent local works look pretty sharp; #5 EDIFIED (7/2): Won at first asking going six furlongs, which isn’t usually something offspring of Tapit are ready to do. Everything says he’ll get better with more distance and experience, so perhaps improvement is in the cards here.

R9

Casa Creed
Emmanuel
Annapolis

#6 CASA CREED (7/5): Has probably turned into the top turf horse on the East Coast and is attempting to win the Grade 1 Fourstardave for the second year in a row. He absolutely loves this turf course, comes in off of a win in the Grade 3 Kelso, and seems ready to put forth another strong effort; #1 EMMANUEL (3-1): Rallied from last to first to win the Grade 3 Poker downstate and comes back to two turns here. He’s won three graded stakes this year and has more tactical speed than he showed last time out; #4 ANNAPOLIS (8/5): May be the shorter-priced Pletcher, but I’ve got some doubts. His second-place finish behind my top pick wasn’t bad, but he’s a grinding type that likes very firm going. That’s probably not the turf course or setup he’ll get on Saturday afternoon.

R10

Ice Road
Cicciobello
Forrest City

Being honest? Other than thinking #10 ICE ROAD (8-1) may get a favorable setup as a closer in a race full of speed, I’ve got no strong lean here. If you’re playing, go as deep as you can.

R11

Charge Nurse (MTO)
Rheaume
Spinning Colors

#10 RHEAUME (6-1): Won first time out and has since mostly been going marathon distances. I think this distance might suit him, and I’m willing to give him one more shot. The outside draw on the inner turf isn’t ideal, but this seems like a soft spot for the level and we might get the morning line price; #1 SPINNING COLORS (8-1): Graduated last time out, tries winners for the first time, and probably doesn’t have to be too much to make it two in a row. She’s been gradually stretched out in distance, and it’s possible she’s now doing what she wants to do; #4 STELLA MARS (5-1): Has won two in a row after a long drought and popped at a price last month downstate. I’m not quite sure two turns is what she really wants, but it’s also possible she’s in career-best form and is sitting on another big effort.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,111.50

Friday’s day at the races is going to be a highlight. My sister and brother-in-law are bringing two of their kids up. Last year’s trip included them getting introduced to the Big Red Spring, the younger one falling flat on her face running around the backyard (she was fine, because kids almost always are), and the older one briefly inspiring 90 seconds of sheer panic before we realized she’d found a spot near the paddock she liked and beat everyone else to it (Uncle Andrew was very proud).

I live 3,000 miles away from a lot of people I love and care about, ones I don’t get to see as much as I’d like. When I tweeted I was going east, a few horse racing Twitter/X users tried to tell me to cancel my trip because of stuff going on at Saratoga. No, no, a thousand times no, and if you’re reading this, never say that again, okay?

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: One of my exacta horses won the sixth, but I had nothing behind it and dropped $30.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll once again focus on 2-year-olds for most of my action, as we’ll head to the seventh. I’ll try to extract some value from #10 VETTRIANO by keying him on top of $10 exactas that use #3 CANIGETALOAN, #4 PERLIANO, and #6 TRUST FUND underneath. I’ll also single him to finish off $5 doubles that start with #3 NIGHT TIME and #6 MARSALIS in the sixth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Thursday: 2-for-10
Meet: 29-for-104

Best Bet: Americanrevolution, Race 9
Longshot: Night Time, Race 6

R1

Hero’s Medal
Moore’s Law
Mount Craig

#3 HERO’S MEDAL (3-1): Sure looks like the lone early speed in the Friday lid-lifter. He set a legitimate pace at this level and route last time out, and between the likelihood of a slower tempo and a recent bullet drill, I think improvement is in the cards; #4 MOORE’S LAW (8/5): Rallied from last to be second in the same race my top pick exits. That was his first try since March, and the two-back effort shows he can be a bit closer if the situation calls for it; #1 MOUNT CRAIG (5/2): Has the talent to be a major player here, but sure seems to go out of his way to find trouble. For that reason, the rail draw makes me a bit nervous.

R2

Timely Conquest
Missing Fortune
Chasing Daylight

#2 TIMELY CONQUEST (7/2): Won first time out for a barn that wasn’t going well at that time (and one that doesn’t usually have its firsters fully cranked). She should get some speed to chase here, and Velazquez opts to ride back for an outfit that’s since heated up a bit; #8 MISSING FORTUNE (4-1): Romped by seven at Finger Lakes last month, and the rider sees fit to make the trip in from central New York. That’s often a tell that a shipper is well-meant, and the outside draw is a plus; #1 CHASING DAYLIGHT (8-1): Was a distant second behind a runner that’s since won two more races in a row, including one on Wednesday. She’s got some early speed and should be a pace factor at a bit of a price.

R3

Favor (MTO)
Rocky Sky
Canisy

#1 ROCKY SKY (5/2): Makes her 2023 debut in this spot after dancing some big dances a season ago. She won the Grade 3 Waya here and was second in two other graded stakes races, and the last several works hint that she’s ready to go here; #6 CANISY (3-1): Seems like the main speed in this field and is another with some back class. She gets Lasix again after dropping it in the Grade 3 Matchmaker last time, and that could move her forward; #3 POCA MUCHA (4-1): Has run well in two tries here, including a second last time out where she had too much to do late. That day’s winner is a runner, and she’d benefit if a horse goes with Canisy out of the gate.

R4

Grannys Connection
Kant Hurry Love
Vallelujah

#2 GRANNYS CONNECTION (6/5): Got nailed at the wire last time out, but reeled off four straight wins prior to that and gets this barn’s first-call rider in the Union Avenue. She once again looks like the fastest horse early on, and I think she’ll prove tough to catch; #5 KANT HURRY LOVE (5/2): Has won four of six starts this season, including the last-out win over my top pick. That was a career-best effort, and when this barn gets horses on the right track, they tend to stay there; #4 VALLELUJAH (15-1): It’s quite a gulf between the top two in the rest of the field. That being said, she likes Saratoga, comes in off of a last-out victory downstate, and could clunk up for a piece of it.

R5

Unsung Melody (MTO)
Gal in a Rush
Breeze Easy

#3 GAL IN A RUSH (3-1): Cuts back after a score at seven furlongs at Belmont and attracts Flavien Prat, who likely had some options in this turf sprint. That was her first win in quite a while, but she’s been running against solid horses and could be coming into her own at four; #6 BREEZE EASY (5/2): Completes a powerful 1-2 punch for this barn and can win on her best day. Having said that, she runs into trouble a lot, and that’s not a great trait to have in turf sprints where there isn’t much time to recover; #2 BOWL OF CHERRIES (3-1): Ran second when switched to the turf earlier this meet and earned a career-high 85 Beyer Speed Figure. A repeat of that effort would make her competitive in what hit me as a pretty puzzling race.

R6

Marsalis
Night Time
Today’s Flavor

#6 MARSALIS (5/2): Looked like a winner turning for home in the Kelly’s Landing (I know, I needed him that day), but he ran second behind a very fast horse in Bango. Lasix comes back on the drop out of stakes company, and anything close to that performance would make him a formidable foe; #3 NIGHT TIME (15-1): Hasn’t run since March, but put forth some big numbers at Turfway Park and seems to be working well ahead of his return. This race has a lot of speed signed on, and he should be going the right way late at a big price; #4 TODAY’S FLAVOR (4-1): Was fourth behind Elite Power in the Grade 2 True North and fourth behind Doppelganger in the Grade 1 Carter. This spot represents class relief, and George Weaver’s horses have run big so far at this stand.

R7

Vettriano
Canigetaloan
Trust Fund

#10 VETTRIANO (9/5): Has been working lights-out ahead of his debut and has every right to be a good one. This son of Liam’s Map hammered for $350,000 earlier this year, and Chad Brown seems to have him tuned up; #3 CANIGETALOAN (8-1): Has some very fast drills in his tab ahead of his unveiling for a barn that won with a first-time starter on Wednesday. In particular, the four-furlong gate drill two works back was excellent, and it looks like he could be a runner; #6 TRUST FUND (7/2): Has been working steadily for Todd Pletcher and sold for $150,000 across the street as a yearling. This son of Practical Joke is another well-meant first-time starter in an intriguing field that seems to include several of them.

R8

General Jim
More Than Looks
Carl Spackler

#8 GENERAL JIM (9/2): Comes back to the turf in the rescheduled Grade 2 Hall of Fame after running several big races on dirt earlier this year. I think he bounced in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens off of a big two-back effort in the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile, and his best effort gives him a big shot at a fair price; #1 MORE THAN LOOKS (5/2): Capitalized on an ideal race shape in the Grade 3 Manila, where he rallied from last to first in an event with fast fractions. I don’t know how fast they’ll go here, but he’s improved with every start and could conceivably take another step forward; #2 CARL SPACKLER (3-1): Ran a clunker in the Grade 2 American Turf, where he was a 2-1 favorite. He’s been rested since, but shows a strong recent work tab for connections that must be respected.

R9

Americanrevolution
Bankit
Sundaeswithsandy

#1 AMERICANREVOLUTION (1-1): Makes his 2022 debut here and is strictly the one to beat if he’s ready to run. He won the Grade 1 Cigar Mile in 2021, ran second to Olympiad in two big spots a season ago, and seems to have the Evan Shipman field over a barrel; #5 BANKIT (4-1): Is an easy horse to root for and notched his ninth win last time out in the Commentator downstate. That race has produced a couple of next-out winners, and Rosario rides back for Asmussen; #4 SUNDAESWITHSANDY (15-1): Was claimed earlier this year by Michelle Nevin and has since seemingly found career-best form. He’s run two 92 Beyer Speed Figures in a row, and while this is certainly a class test, he seems to be going the right way and may provide value in the exotics.

R10

Three Unions
Saratoga Gaze
Michele M.

#7 THREE UNIONS (5-1): Has run just once since November and had every right to need that April effort at Aqueduct. It’s not inspiring to see another layoff line, but she drops in class, ran well in two turf sprints a season ago, and has every chance to win this if she’s ready to go; #10 SARATOGA GAZE (4-1): Hasn’t won in more than a year but showed speed in each of her last two starts. She does her best running with Prat aboard, and he’ll get a leg up again here; #5 MICHELE M. (7/2): Adds blinkers on the drop in class and returns to a sprint distance after tiring going longer at Delaware last time out. Her two-back race going shorter wasn’t bad, and she makes as much sense as any in a race where I honestly don’t have much in the way of strong opinions.

R11

Sweetest Princess
Red Hot Chick
Ghostly Girl

#8 SWEETEST PRINCESS (7/2): Has found trouble in each of her last two outings, but drops in for a tag for the first time and that could wake her up. She was third in a stakes race not too long ago, and I think she could find herself in an ideal stalking spot in the Friday nightcap; #7 RED HOT CHICK (6-1): Broke her maiden two starts back and found first-level allowance company a bit too tough. The rider switch to Prat is a big one, and this field certainly doesn’t have any world-beaters in it; #3 GHOSTLY GIRL (4-1): Has been running in starter allowance company most of this year and has been consistently picking up checks against those fields. I’m not convinced turf is her best game, but her last-out effort on the lawn at Ellis Park was decent enough.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,141.50

If something weird can happen to someone while traveling by air, chances are it’s happened to me the past few years.

On Wednesday, my streak continued with an aborted landing in Chicago. Apparently, a plane that was supposed to be off the ground was still on the runway when we attempted to land. As a result, we went back into the air and circled around for a bit before completing the landing about 15 minutes later.

The important thing, though, is that I’m here and headed to the track with family this weekend. I’m an easy guy to find; if you’re there, look up!

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: My Pick Five was refunded when my first-leg single scratched.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the sixth race, which to me is the most fun betting race on a card where those may be hard to come by (I’m still assuming, by the way, that all turf races are off the grass). I’ll box #3 LE DOM BRO, #6 ALWAYS DIALED, and #10 GAME MISCONDUCT in $3 exactas, and I’ll put a $12 win bet on Always Dialed, who’s my top selection.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Wednesday: 5-for-8
Meet: 27-for-94

Best Bet: Knockzcatoffzfence, Race 2
Longshot: Game Misconduct, Race 6

R1

Permed
Honey Dijon
Bundchen

#5 PERMED (5/2): Has run second twice in two prior efforts downstate and looms large regardless of the surface. She’s got plenty of early speed, and Luis Saez sees fit to ride (he fills in for Irad Ortiz, Jr., who’s serving a suspension); #6 HONEY DIJON (5-1): Showed some speed last time out before fading to fifth, and I think there’s reason to believe she’s sitting on a bigger effort. Joe Sharp doesn’t always have first-time starters fully cranked, and the recent bullet drill inspires some confidence; #3 BUNDCHEN (2-1): Contested the Group 2 Queen Mary at Royal Ascot last time out, and this spot’s just a bit weaker than that one. My hesitation is due to the fact that she failed to capitalize on what looked like a perfect trip in her debut, which came over a muddy track.

R2

Knockzcatoffzfence
Montauk Mystique
Strange Fruit

#1 KNOCKZCATOFFZFENCE (2-1): Has found a very soft spot in which to debut and comes in off of several strong local workouts. I’m a bit surprised she’s running for a tag, to be honest, and anything close to her work tab would make her the one to beat; #4 MONTAUK MYSTIQUE (7/2): Flashed some early speed last time out before fading badly to finish eighth against higher-level opposition. Her pedigree says she’ll like a wet track, and perhaps the class drop will wake her up; #6 STRANGE FRUIT (9/2): Didn’t run well in her local debut last time, but she has enough back form to hint that that may be an aberration. Her two-back effort saw her run second against similar downstate, and she’s one of only a few in here that’s shown she can run on late.

R3

Rock the Weekend (MTO)
Tallahatchiebridge
More Than Work

#13 ROCK THE WEEKEND (6-1): Has won two in a row and was claimed last time out by a barn that knows how to win with new acquisitions. He’s got some tactical speed and has the potential to sit a perfect stalking trip; #1 TALLAHATCHIEBRIDGE (7/2): Hasn’t been seen since February, but he beat an allowance field that day and has plenty of back form on turf and dirt. This barn is firing so far at this stand, and these connections are aggressive enough to where the drop in class isn’t a red flag for me; #3 MORE THAN WORK (10-1): Was third in an off-the-turf race at this level last time out. That, though, was a fast race with a much-the-best winner, and this field seems a bit weaker.

R4

Dust Devil
Maximum Impact
Two Thirty Five

#5 DUST DEVIL (6/5): Exits a win at this route earlier in the meet and goes first off the claim for a barn that doesn’t reach in for many but excels when it does. He should have plenty of pace to rate behind, and a repeat effort likely beats this bunch; #6 MAXIMUM IMPACT (8-1): Had a very nice two-back win at this level at Churchill and also boasts a win over an off track earlier this year at Mahoning Valley. I’m taking the last-out race at Charles Town with a grain of salt, as some horses just don’t like the bullring; #1 TWO THIRTY FIVE (3-1): Led most of the way in the race my top pick exits, but was claimed that day and has shown he likes wet tracks. He’s 4-for-9 over off going, and he has enough early speed to utilize his inside draw.

R5

Miss d’Or Cherie
Recency
Ekwanok

#9 MISS D’OR CHERIE (7/2): Has been working consistently downstate and draws a cushy outside post for her unveiling here. She hammered for $300,000 at the OBS sale earlier this year, and there’s reason to believe she’s got some talent; #5 RECENCY (9/2): Makes her first start for Chad Brown and is bred in the purple, being by Tapwrit and out of a mare named Flipcup who was a runner. She hammered for $325,000 last summer and may be a contender despite her pedigree saying she wants way more ground; #3 EKWANOK (12-1): Comes in with an improving work pattern for Rob Atras, one that includes a solid half-mile gate work on August 5th. Kendrick Carmouche wins a lot for this barn, and he figures to have her in the mix early on at a price.

R6

Always Dialed
Le Dom Bro
Game Misconduct

#6 ALWAYS DIALED (6-1): Is a very, very easy horse to root for given the connections, and judging by the work tab, he seems to have some potential. His drills over the training track have been solid ahead of his debut; #3 LE DOM BRO (5/2): Has run second twice at Gulfstream and tries restricted company in this spot. The July 14th work hints that mud won’t be a problem, but if this barn is so confident, why is it also entering a 20-1 shot?; #10 GAME MISCONDUCT (20-1): Rushed up after a stumble in his debut and understandably faded when the real running started. However, he gets a much better draw here, and Javier Castellano sees fit to ride back. I think he could easily improve and grab a piece of this at big odds.

R7

Quarrel
Be My Sunshine
Virtual Reality (MTO)

#9 QUARREL (10-1): Can run a bit on either dirt or turf, and I think she’ll like the stretchout to two turns. Her lone win came going two turns on turf at Aqueduct, and she’s got tactical speed in a race without a lot of that elsewhere; #10 BE MY SUNSHINE (8-1): Tried the Grade 3 Selene at Woodbine last time out, and that didn’t go well. She drops back down to what’s probably the right level, and the two dirt works make me think she’ll handle that surface just fine if she gets the chance; #1A VIRTUAL REALITY (4-1): Settled for second in the first race of the meet and did so in visually-unimpressive fashion. She was on the lead that day and that field crawled home. It’s possible she wins, but I think she’ll be a significant underlay solely because of her powerhouse connections.

R8

Moving Pictures
With Know Name
Magical Ways

#5 MOVING PICTURES (5/2): Has a record that looks much better if you draw a line through the two-back clunker on turf. He takes a bit of a class drop to run here and just missed in the slop back in May at Belmont; #4 WITH KNOW NAME (8-1): Hasn’t run since October, but comes in off of a very sharp workout and will make his first start since being gelded. The ultimate equipment change can move horses forward significantly, and Castellano hopping aboard for Morley is usually a good sign; #2 MAGICAL WAYS (2-1): Found starter allowance foes much too tough in his last two starts and drops back in for a tag. The drop merits respect, but it wasn’t like he beat world-beaters to break his maiden in April, and this isn’t a bad group for the level.

R9

South Street (MTO)
Deputy Connect
Miracle Mike

#13 SOUTH STREET (9/5): Was one-paced last time out against what was probably a better group of horses. He’s bred to love a wet track, first-call rider Jose Lezcano is up for Linda Rice, and he looms large if this race gets moved off the turf; #7 DEPUTY CONNECT (6-1): Probably found the nine-furlong distance last time out a bit too far, and it didn’t help that the winner ran off the screen. Prat rides back for Brad Cox, and the cutback to a one-mile trip should really help him; #5 MIRACLE MIKE (12-1): Graduated last time out by rallying from 10th to get the money against maiden claimers. He tries winners for the first time, but his debut in the slop last year was a strong race and this field isn’t without early speed, which could set up for his late kick.

R10

Pay Zone
Kasimba
Ride Up (MTO)

#11 PAY ZONE (7/2): Has shown early speed in all three of his prior outings and likely makes the lead on either turf or dirt. In particular, though, his two dirt outings time out well against this group, and he seems like the one they’ll have to catch; #6 KASIMBA (3-1): Has run second in all four of his lifetime starts and ships up from Monmouth for this one. This is another that wants to go early, though his last-out try was sharp enough to make me think turf’s really what he wants; #13 RIDE UP (8/5): Drops in class for a trainer that’s won a lot of races so far this summer. Having said that, I don’t think this one is a sprinter, and he might be left with plenty to do late against some horses with early speed. At his likely price, I’ll happily try to beat him.