Saratoga | Andrew Champagne

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/2/23)

Posted on July 31, 2023 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $990

As a reminder, this content is solely an after-hours passion project of mine. It will only be available on this site, so keep checking back for more content from now through Labor Day.

A lot of things happened while I was gone, and it gives me plenty of material for this space. First, let’s tackle racing in my adopted home region of Northern California, which was dealt a massive blow with the announcement of Golden Gate Fields’s impending demise.

I’d like to think there’s a morsel of truth in The Stronach Group inviting horses and trainers down south, and I’d like to think races will be carded where those horses and trainers stand a fighting chance. However, with only $1 million or so of an upcoming $31 million infrastructure project allotted to those means, I can’t help but think many talented horsepeople (and the thoroughbreds in their care) won’t be making the trip.

There’s an initiative gathering steam in NorCal that would see racing take place at fair tracks 10 months out of the year. That seems far more logical, and would allow for a “minor league” circuit that otherwise wouldn’t exist.

LAST TIME…: It was a while ago, but I had $40 in win bets whittled down to a single losing $10 wager.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I really like #1 CHUCK WILLIS in the third. I think the cutback in distance will suit him, and I’m betting accordingly. My action is a $30 win bet on him in hopes that he channels his mid-2022 form.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Sunday, July 17: 2-for-9
Meet: 9-for-38

Best Bet: Chuck Willis, Race 3
Longshot: Just Call Ray, Race 7

Caramelised
Awakened
Merry Maker

#3 CARAMELISED (7/2): Made his first U.S. start a winning one before finishing a distant third against much better horses. That day’s runner-up came right back to win, and I think this one may respond to a cutback in distance; #1 AWAKENED (7/2): Has fired some big shots since being moved to the steeplechase ranks in early-2022. His last-out win was a strong one, and his flexible running style is a plus; #2 MERRY MAKER (6-1): Hit a rough patch in late-2022 but came back running in his 2023 debut, when he rallied from eighth to capture an allowance race. This is probably a step up the ladder, but he’s inexperienced and may have some room to grow.

Flying in Style
Bustino Santino
Stavros

#7 FLYING IN STYLE (3-1): Ran well in his debut for a barn that doesn’t often have firsters fully cranked. He made the lead from the rail that day, gets a much friendlier draw in this spot, and has every right to move forward at second asking; #3 BUSTINO SANTINO (5-1): Hasn’t run since January but boasts a few solid local works and may have room to improve. He’s never once run over a fast main track, so there’s every chance he’s got a gear we haven’t seen yet, and this barn excels in bringing horses back off of long breaks; #6 STAVROS (9/2): Comes east after flopping twice in California and runs against New York-breds for the first time. He’s been working well at Laurel and may relish the class drop, but those two SoCal races didn’t come back fast on figures and this isn’t a bad group for the level.

Jacobson entry
Chess Master
Lyrical Poet

#1 CHUCK WILLIS (4-1): Has back races that would crush this group and goes second off the layoff (and first off the claim) in this spot. Seven furlongs is a bit longer than he probably wants, but this 5 1/2-furlong trip should hit this speedy gelding right between the eyes; #2 CHESS MASTER (6/5): Has run some big figures in his career and exits a last-out score at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Closers on the rail make me a bit nervous, and the likely price seems like an underlay, but he’s an obvious contender provided he gets the right trip; #6 LYRICAL POET (3-1): Hasn’t run since October and takes a big drop for Wesley Ward. His late-2022 form is troubling, but he’s shown early speed against better and does have a win at this route.

Shadow Dragon
Olympic Dreams
Un Ojo

#1 SHADOW DRAGON (9/5): Contested several Kentucky Derby prep races and ran into some top-class 3-year-olds along the way. He’s improved his numbers in his two most recent outings and stretches back out to two turns, which hits me as his best game; #3 OLYMPIC DREAMS (2-1): Did everything but win in the Commentator downstate, when he ran the talented Bankit to a head at a big price. His lone two-turn dirt start to date was a win back in April, and it sure seems like he’s finding his best form midway through his 4-year-old campaign; #2 UN OJO (5-1): Hasn’t run since January but has been working swiftly at Keeneland and adds blinkers for the first time. Best known for winning the Grade 2 Rebel last year, the one-eyed NY-bred would benefit from a pace meltdown.

Run for Your Honey
Belvoir
Charity First

#5 RUN FOR YOUR HONEY (6-1): Ran third as an 8/5 favorite earlier in the meet, but goes two turns for the first time and is bred to love this trip. Her dam’s pedigree is all-distance, and the experience edge she has over most of this group could prove significant; #6 BELVOIR (5/2): Is kin to 2-year-old stakes winner Maiden Beauty and fetched $105,000 at auction, 14 times the stud fee of sire Flameaway. Going two turns on debut is a tough ask, but she’s got every reason to be a good one; #8 CHARITY FIRST (10-1): Was one-paced in her debut, where she ran into several next-out winners in what turned out to be a key race. The blinkers go on, as does jockey Luis Saez, and improvement seems logical at second asking for a runner whose pedigree says she wants lots of ground.

T Max (MTO)
Kannon Fire
Miss M M

#2 KANNON FIRE (5-1): Is the bigger price of the two Linda Rice trainees, but is the one I prefer in a wide-open event. Her two-back win was solid, she had a bonafide excuse last time out, and given her first-out win at Aqueduct, we know she can handle a two-turn trip; #1 MISS M M (8-1): Merits a long look in here due to the likely race shape, which figures to be very kind to early speed. She say just off of very fast fractions going five furlongs last time, but has a win going a two-turn mile and could get comfortable up front at a price; #3 STIR CRAZY (5/2): Ships up from Monmouth, drops in for a tag, and makes sense given her consistency. The lack of a recent win is certainly troubling, but I prefer her to #7 POSTNUP, who hasn’t won in more than two years and hits me as a very vulnerable favorite despite a trainer change that’s impossible to ignore.

Lord Captain
Just Call Ray
Salto de Tigre

#10 LORD CAPTAIN (9/5): Ran a career-best race first off the claim for Linda Rice last time out, when he ran a close-up second and earned a 94 Beyer Speed Figure. He’s shown plenty of two-turn form in the past, so the 10-furlong journey doesn’t concern me much, and anything close to the last-out figure likely beats these; #5 JUST CALL RAY (15-1): Didn’t do much running last time out, but I’m willing to look past that clunker. His best races have come going two turns, not one, and if he channels his May form, he’s got every chance to be a player in here at a big price; #6 SALTO DE TIGRE (6-1): Is an ultra-consistent gelding who seems to always show up. He’s hit the board in 16 of 24 career starts, including each of his last eight, and his plodding style could suit this distance very nicely.

Technical Analysis
White Frost
Haughty

#5 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (9/5): Boasts three graded stakes scores over this turf course and looms large in the De La Rose. Her 2023 debut last time out was solid, and she should step forward considerably, as she’s shown she relishes going two turns over the lawn at the Spa; #1 WHITE FROST (3-1): Has danced plenty of big dances and was third in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland earlier this year. Bill Mott has enjoyed a strong start to the meet with several big wins, and this is another that more than fits in this spot; #4 HAUGHTY (5-1): Is one of three Chad Brown trainees and has every right to be sitting on a big effort third off the bench. She was wide throughout in the Perfect Sting last time, gains Irad Ortiz, Jr., for this effort, and figures to be prominent early.

Headland (MTO)
Mail Order
Adaay In Asia

#6 MAIL ORDER (4-1): Ran second behind next-out stakes winner Roses for Debra in her 2023 debut despite an awkward start. She flashed enough talent earlier in her career to hint that this effort was no fluke, and a step forward would give her a big chance; #4 ADAAY IN ASIA (8-1): Was fourth in the race my top pick exits but goes third off the bench here and retains the services of Flavien Prat. She’d benefit from a pace meltdown, and there’s plenty of early zip signed on (at least on paper); #7 KAUFYMAKER (4-1): Is one of two Wesley Ward trainees in this spot and comes in off of a win at Churchill in May. They ran her in some big spots as a 2-year-old, and while she may not have moved forward much from those races, her usual effort puts her right there.

R10

Baby Sox
Vax
La Aguililla

#4 BABY SOX (6-1): Misfired in her first try against winners, but she dueled through solid fractions that day and may have bounced off of a lifetime-best effort two back. She should make the lead in here, and that may be enough in what hits me as a weak race for the level; #7 VAX (7/5): Merits respect given the barn switch and massive class drop, and was third in the race my top pick exits. However, she benefited from the same pace that compromised Baby Sox that day, and I think they may go a bit slower up front here; #6 LA AGUILILLA (7/2): Has gone a long time without a win, but runs for her lowest claiming tag ever and has run in some pretty fast races in the past. It doesn’t sound like a ringing endorsement, but that might be enough to get her a check in the Wednesday finale.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/16/23)

Posted on July 15, 2023 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

Nothing here today.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: This is getting comical. For the third straight day, my play scratched.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’m craving action, so let’s spread today’s bets out across the card. I’ll have $10 win bets on the following horses: #2 PLEASANT PASSAGE (race 3), #4 CUMBERLAND (race 6), #1 MR PHIL (race 8), and #9 UNCASHED (race 9).

TOTAL WAGERED: $40

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Saturday: 2-for-11
Meet: 7-for-29

Best Bet: Cumberland, Race 6
Longshot: Mr Phil, Race 8

Speakinofthedevil
Fight Fiercely
Gabe

#3 SPEAKINOFTHEDEVIL (3/5): Takes a substantial class drop and looms large on paper in what seems like a formful opener. He romped by nearly 12 lengths two starts back in Indiana, and anything close to that kind of effort would make him a formidable favorite; #2 FIGHT FIERCELY (7/2): Was eased last time out when running for triple this claiming price in his first start for trainer Joe Sharp. His two-back effort at Churchill was a solid second, and he’d benefit from a speed duel up front; #4 GABE (5-1): Crushed an overmatched field at Belterra by as many as he pleased last time out, but went to the sidelines for a few months after that effort. I’m not sure what he beat that day, but he looked sharp doing it.

Alice Kramden
Jolly Miss Jill
Yogi

#5 ALICE KRAMDEN (4-1): Had a number of excuses last time out and drops down in class significantly here. That was her first start against winners, the track came up muddy, and she may have bounced off of a career-best effort. I’m expecting an improved performance at what’s probably the right level; #3 JOLLY MISS JILL (5/2): Stretches out to a mile, which is a question mark, but she also drops in class and looks like the main speed in an otherwise paceless race. If she gets comfortable early, she could get brave and prove tough to catch; #7 YOGI (3-1): Was second against similar last time out at Belmont behind a horse that came back to win again at next asking. She showed improved tactical speed that day, which could come in handy in this spot.

Sunset Louise (MTO)
Pleasant Passage
Veronica Greene

#2 PLEASANT PASSAGE (3-1): Adds blinkers after a few tough-luck trips, including a fifth in the Grade 2 Appalachian where she got mauled from both sides in the stretch. Her maiden-breaking score here last summer was sharp, she’s since won a graded stakes race, and her best effort would make her tough; #7 VERONICA GREENE (3-1): May not be bet as much as her stablemate, but I prefer her here. She’s yet to run a bad race on turf, didn’t have much pace to close into last time out at Belmont, and has proven two-turn turf form; #4 BEAUTE CACHEE (8/5): Kept excellent company overseas last year, but wasn’t overly impressive at 1/5 in her stateside debut. She won, but the speed figures didn’t come back highly. Perhaps she needed the race off the bench, and maybe she’ll improve today, but I think she has to in order to beat a pretty solid group.

Let Freedom Spring
Ensign Parker
Hereby

#1 LET FREEDOM SPRING (9/5): Went wire-to-wire in his first start off the claim for Orlando Noda and looks like the main speed in this bottom-level beaten claiming event. Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back, and he should have every chance at his third win since April; #6 ENSIGN PARKER (5-1): Hasn’t found the winner’s circle since at least 2021, but moved up second off the bench to run a decent second at this level downstate. In a race without much early zip, his tactical speed could be a plus; #7 HEREBY (6-1): Comes in off of a second-place finish at Finger Lakes where he recorded a 70 Beyer Speed Figure, the highest number he’s ever earned in a dirt race. He drops in for a tag here, and while he might need to step forward, it seems like he’s doing well, and that may be enough in a race without any world-beaters signed on.

Rodriguez entry
Collected Special
Always a Warrior

RODRIGUEZ ENTRY (8/5): I prefer #1 ANTONIO OF VENICE, who ran very well to be a close-up second in his debut and may have bounced last time out. A return to his first-out form, plus the experience he has under his belt, would make him a likely winner; #6 COLLECTED SPECIAL (6-1): Ships up from Monmouth and could be well-meant. He hammered for $85,000 at OBS earlier this year, and his dam’s six prior foals to race have all found the winner’s circle at some point; #8 ALWAYS A WARRIOR (4-1): Is another Jersey shipper with a strong female family. He’s kin to two winners, and his pedigree traces back to third dam Darien Miss, a seven-time stakes winner who threw Grade 1 heroine Fleet Renee.

Cumberland
Rice entry
Fast Boat to Skye

#4 CUMBERLAND (9/2): Was vanned off after his last-out effort, so it’s clear something went wrong that day. He’s back in against weaker rivals, Joel Rosario sees fit to ride back, and anything close to either of his races against straight maidens at Gulfstream earlier this year may make him hard to catch; #1 ROCKSTAR RED (6-1): Responded to the last-out class drop by doing everything but win. He lost a head-bob downstate and was claimed out of that race by Linda Rice, who does great work with new acquisitions; #8 FAST BOAT TO SKYE (10-1): Has shown speed in several starts against straight maidens and drops in for a tag for the first time. John Velazquez sees fit to ride, and he should be prominent early against a weaker group than the ones he’s previously run against.

Film Star
Pledgeofallegiance
Ouster

#6 FILM STAR (2-1): Stretches out to two turns in this spot, but was very impressive in his last two-turn try at Keeneland, where he led every step of the way. There doesn’t seem to be much other early speed in here, so he could dictate terms from the jump; #7 PLEDGEOFALLEGIANCE (8-1): Has won two in a row and stepped up out of the claiming ranks with aplomb last time out. He’s shown an ability to stalk and pounce, and he should be able to sit that type of trip without too much of a problem; #2 OUSTER (5/2): Faltered as the 5/2 favorite in the Commentator downstate, but before that ran several really sharp races in a row. One of them saw him earn a 100 Beyer Speed Figure. If he wants to go this far, he’ll have every chance.

Mr Phil
Baby Yoda
Nakatomi

#1 MR PHIL (10-1): Stretches out to his best distance and has a big chance at a price given some of his prior form. He goes back to the Rob Atras barn for this one, and he’s never been worse than third in five tries at seven furlongs; #3 BABY YODA (6/5): Is a very sharp horse when he’s right and clearly loves Saratoga, as he’s 3-for-4 over this track. He’s run just once since October, and that start didn’t go well, but he’s obviously a contender if he’s ready to go; #2 NAKATOMI (5/2): Has danced plenty of dances against some tough sprinters, and on paper, this looks like a drop in class. However, this is a stakes-quality optional claimer, and I’m just not sure he’s the same horse at seven furlongs that he is at six.

Uncashed
Gaslight Dancer
No Nay Hudson

#9 UNCASHED (5-1): Hasn’t fired a bad shot yet for one of the highest-percentage barns in the country and was a very impressive winner of a listed stakes race last time out. He tries turf for the first time, but his bottom-side pedigree is grass-heavy, so that’s not a concern for me in the slightest; #10 GASLIGHT DANCER (7/2): May have bounced a bit last time out off of a two-back stakes score at Keeneland that was pretty impressive. The outside draw should give Tyler Gaffalione plenty of options, and he’s shown some versatility in his running style to boot; #1 NO NAY HUDSON (6-1): Broke through for his first win in quite a while last time out, and in doing so beat several of today’s rivals. The rail draw is a bit of a concern given the speed to his outside, but it’s possible he’s rounding into form midway through his 3-year-old season.

R10

Strange Fruit
Maggie
She’s a Nine

#10 STRANGE FRUIT (9/2): Caught a fast dirt track for just the second time in her career and ran a decent second behind a much-the-best winner. Jose Ortiz rides back, and a similar type of effort would give her a big shot in one of the weakest races I’ve ever seen carded at Saratoga; #4 MAGGIE (3-1): May have needed her last-out effort, which doubled as her first try since November. That was also a turf race, and after a pair of clunkers on the grass, it’s safe to assume she just doesn’t like that surface. She has a few dirt races that are not bad, and “not bad” may be good enough here; #8 SHE’S A NINE (5-1): Has shown early speed in a pair of tries against state-bred maiden special weight foes and gets blinkers on the drop in class. She may have legitimate stamina issues, but “blinkers on a class-dropper” is often a powerful angle and the presence of strong gate rider Kendrick Carmouche may suit this filly.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/15/23)

Posted on July 14, 2023 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

It’s tough to see a Grade 1 race attract a five-horse field. It’s even tougher when four of five runners come from the same barn.

The situation in Saturday’s Diana isn’t Chad Brown’s fault. He’s running four legitimate horses (including In Italian, who may be the best turf horse in America regardless of gender), and it isn’t his fault nobody else showed up. It’s a symptom of a more widespread issue, where we have fewer horses that run fewer times per season and are concentrated in a handful of barns.

Any economic discussion around this game is too in-depth to have in this space. Having said that, I hope this is one discussion that’s happening in a boardroom somewhere. The Diana’s a great race that deserves better.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: A Saratoga monsoon late Thursday did enough damage to force Friday’s races off the turf. As such, I was washed out of all of my action.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’m excited to bet #6 ICEATUDE in the second. He looks like the best closer in a race full of early speed, and I think the trip he’ll get will be exactly the one he wants. I’ll put $50 on him to win (getting scratched out of my action the past two days means I can put a bit more behind this one).

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Iceatude, Race 2
Longshot: Nickel Nickel, Race 11

Pirate
Special Element
Sheriff Joe

#1 PIRATE (4/5): Hammered for $350,000 at auction last September and is bred to be a good one. Dam Treasure also threw both Preakness winner National Treasure and stakes-winning sprinter Ultimate, and this one has shown plenty of precocity in the morning for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher; #4 SPECIAL ELEMENT (7/2): Fetched $260,000 despite a very modest pedigree (sire Copper Bullet commands just $7,500 at stud), and we’ve already seen this barn win with one first-time starter on Opening Day. The last work is certainly a step up and may mean he’s on his toes for the Saturday opener; #6 SHERIFF JOE (8-1): Is bred to want much longer than this 5 1/2-furlong route, but the works have been decent enough. This son of Curlin is out of a Distorted Humor mare, who herself is out of graded stakes winner Daydreaming (the dam of Grade 1 winner Imagining, among others).

Iceatude
Win for Gold
Sugar Gray Leonard

#6 ICEATUDE (5-1): Looks like one of the few closers in a speed-heavy sprint, and the race shape should hit him right between the eyes. The faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be, and while this is a class jump first off the claim, it sure seems like he’ll have every chance at an ideal setup; #1 WIN FOR GOLD (4-1): Has picked up plenty of checks since being claimed back in February, but is still looking for his first win at this starter allowance level. He’s got one way of going and should have enough early zip to utilize the inside draw; #2 SUGAR GRAY LEONARD (9/5): Should benefit from the race shape, like my top pick, but he hasn’t won in quite a long time. A repeat of his two-back effort, where he was second in the slop at Aqueduct, would give him a shot, but the likely price hits me as an underlay.

Portage (MTO)
Vanished
Isola

#5 VANISHED (3-1): Has proven form and looks like the lone speed, which is a dangerous combination in two-turn routes on the inner turf course. Luis Saez was aboard for her first-out effort, where she ran a strong second on the turf at Churchill, and they seem like they’ll be the ones to catch; #1 ISOLA (9/2): Ran well to be second in her debut overseas and gets Lasix for the first time in her American debut. She’s a half to several strong runners, including multiple stakes winner Anda Muchacho, and she has every right to step forward at second asking; #9 HOLA GATA (10-1): Hasn’t run since November, but I prefer this one to the other Chad Brown trainee in this field. She ran very well here last summer when beaten just a length behind next-out stakes winner Pleasant Passage, and Flavien Prat sees fit to ride this one when he likely had a few options.

In Italian
Marketsegmentation
Whitebeam

#2 IN ITALIAN (2/5): Looms large in her quest to win a second straight renewal of the Grade 1 Diana. Chad Brown has four of the five runners in here, and I highly doubt he’d willingly send one of them to keep this one company early on; #3 MARKETSEGMENTATION (4-1): Found herself alone on the lead last time in the Grade 1 New York and went wire-to-wire going longer at Belmont Park. That’s not her traditional trip, and I don’t think it replicates itself here, but she’s won three in a row and could be in career-best form; #5 WHITEBEAM (5-1): Won what turned out to be a classy edition of the Grade 3 Gallorette, as both the runner-up and third-place finisher came right back to win. This is her third start off the bench, and it’s worth noting this is where Prat shows up.

Always Charming
Mariachi
G Munning

#2 ALWAYS CHARMING (4-1): Has found a new gear as a 4-year-old, having won two of three starts this season. The seven-furlong trip last time out may have been just a hair too far, and it’s encouraging to see Irad Ortiz, Jr., hop aboard for what seems like a strong race for the level; #8 MARIACHI (5/2): Wasn’t beaten much by my top pick last time out in what doubled as this one’s first race since November. I think he may have to exert some energy to get his preferred front-running trip in this spot, but he does have every right to improve second off the bench, too; #7 G MUNNING (5-1): Hasn’t run in nine months but resurfaces for Chad Brown. There are no wins on this one’s sheet after November of 2021, but he’s been working well here and may be responding to the barn switch.

Solib
Sals Dream Girl
Silver Skillet

#2 SOLIB (4-1): Is a tepid top pick in a race that hits me as a true grass grab bag. She’s found her form over the last two starts and had an excuse last time out, when she didn’t break well in a race without much early speed. She’s won going long before and could be the one to hold off late; #6 SALS DREAM GIRL (6-1): Gets back to a two-turn route here after two one-turn events downstate, and that seems to be this one’s preferred trip. Both of her wins have come going two turns, and she’s reunited with Luis Saez, who piloted her to a three-back score in March; #10 SILVER SKILLET (7/2): Tried turf last time out and seemed to like it, as she was beaten just a neck despite rating behind a pace that wasn’t very fast. Two turns is an unknown, and the post position draw isn’t ideal, but she might be talented enough to overcome those obstacles and navigate a winning trip.

Hydra (MTO)
Breeze Easy
Tracy Ann’s Legacy

#4 BREEZE EASY (9/5): Makes her third start off a layoff, and the two that have come before this one weren’t bad. She was most recently a fast-closing second downstate against a similar-quality group, and regular rider Joel Rosario seems to get along with her well; #7 TRACY ANN’S LEGACY (10-1): Comes in off of a clunker that hits me as too bad to be true. She won two of three starts prior to that one and recorded some pretty fast five-furlong times. Finding that form would make her a contender at a nice price; #1 PLAYLIST (2-1): Ran a monster race at Ellis Park last month when she romped by more than five lengths. She’ll likely be favored in here, and repeat of that effort would make her tough, but that’s such an outlier from the rest of her form that I think she may be a “bounce” candidate.

Ichiban
Island Rose
Neigh Jude

#10 ICHIBAN (4-1): Ran a career-best race off a brief freshening last time out. She was a good second in a race where she dueled throughout before giving way in the waning stages. The cutback to seven furlongs should help her, and Jose Ortiz and Linda Rice have made a very strong team this year; #6 ISLAND ROSE (6-1): Is one of a few first-time starters that piques my interest in here. This daughter of Gun Runner is kin to seven winners and has been working well enough downstate to turn some heads; #9 NEIGH JUDE (5-1): Ships up from Monmouth Park for her debut and has enough pedigree to be intriguing. Her dam was a multiple stakes winner, and she’s already thrown another multiple stakes winner named November Rein.

Gun It (MTO)
Annapolis
Casa Creed

#2 ANNAPOLIS (8/5): Has won six of nine races with two seconds, and his only career misfire came in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Mile against far better horses. There’s plenty of speed signed on for the Grade 3 Kelso to set up for this one’s late kick, and it helps he’s won here twice before; #8 CASA CREED (5/2): May be better going shorter, but he’s good enough at this distance to have captured last year’s Grade 1 Fourstardave. Both of his runs this year going shorter have been solid, and he’s another likely to benefit from the presence of several front-running types; #7 ANACONDA (6-1): Has won just one of his last six tries but merits respect based on the likely race shape. He was likely too close to the pace in the Grade 3 Poker, where he ran fourth, and I’m expecting him to be further back early while the pace-setters carve out fast fractions.

R10

Gold Sweep
Triple Trea
Market Street

#9 GOLD SWEEP (3/5): Simply looks like he has the field in the Grade 3 Sanford over a barrel. He earned a 91 Beyer Speed Figure after destroying five others to win the Tremont by nine, and he may be the shortest-priced horse on the card despite the large field; #7 TRIPLE TREA (10-1): Won first time out over the synthetic track at Woodbine and ships down for his first try against winners. I like 2-year-olds that show they can rate and pass others late. This one rallied from sixth to get the job done in his unveiling and could have potential; #10 MARKET STREET (12-1): Was never threatened in his debut, when he went wire-to-wire in the slop at Ellis Park. I’m not sure what he beat that day, but his pedigree says he should get better with experience and distance, and the far outside draw is certainly a plus.

R11

Nickel Nickel
Beer Run
Flat Top Box

#5 NICKEL NICKEL (10-1): May provide some value in the Saturday finale. He hammered for $250,000 at auction last year and has plenty of win-early pedigree. This son of Into Mischief is out of a dam who won at first asking, and that dam is kin to multiple graded stakes winner Kobe’s Back; #2 BEER RUN (2-1): Has beaten several of these rivals in his two lifetime outings and sure looks like the main early speed in here. He’s a logical favorite and could prove tough to catch, but I just don’t think he’s beaten much and don’t have a problem taking a mild stand and using a bigger price on top; #4 FLAT TOP BOX (9/2): Took a step forward at second asking, and that may have been due to getting on the turf for the first time. He chased my second choice through solid fractions and cuts back a sixteenth of a mile in this event.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/14/23)

Posted on July 12, 2023 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

I’ll use this section today to shout out a very worthy cause. Johnny Taboada, an owner on the Northern California circuit, has an autistic son and names his horses in ways that raise autism awareness (if you’ve seen names like that and wondered about the backstory, there you go).

He’s partnering with the George Noyes Foundation to help run a charity poker tournament Sunday in Sacramento. A $150 donation gets you a seat in the tournament, plus food and access to the lounge area, and if you don’t want to play, you can buy a $50 general admission ticket.

If you’re in the area, come on out. If you’re not and want to support the cause, you can donate to the George Noyes Foundation online.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: For the third straight card going back to my summer seminar stint at Pleasanton, my best bet of the day scratched. As such, we had no action on Opening Day.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: We may scratch out of action again, as two races I’m playing are carded for the turf amidst uncertain weather conditions. I’m going to try to extract some value out of heavy favorite #3 DREAMLIKE in the second race. I’ll play an early Pick Four, and my $1 ticket is as follows: 3 with 4,9 with 4,5 with 1,3,8,9. I’ll also play $5 doubles starting in the second race that use the first half of that Pick Four ticket (Dreamlike in the second, #4 G LAURIE and #9 VENENCIA in the third).

TOTAL WAGERED: $26.

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Dreamlike, Race 2
Longshot: Kid Kreesa, Race 5

Awesome Czech
Poseidon’s Mist
She Takes Cash

#6 AWESOME CZECH (9/2): Has shown a bit more pep in her step during the last two drills, which is enough to make her a tepid top pick in a wide-open Friday opener. Horacio De Paz can win with 2-year-olds, and the barn’s first-call rider, Manny Franco, has the mount; #8 POSEIDON’S MIST (3-1): Has hinted at some precocity in works at Monmouth Park and draws a cushy outside post in her unveiling. There’s some class on the bottom side of this one’s pedigree, and it wouldn’t be a shock if she’s ready to run at first asking; #7 SHE TAKES CASH (6-1): Is kin to a pair of winners, and second dam Fleet Wahine won multiple stakes races. The pedigree screams turf to me, but damsire Stormy Atlantic is, fittingly, a strong off-track influence, which could come in handy if the skies open up.

Dreamlike
Ocasek
Ride Up

#3 DREAMLIKE (3/5): Ran third in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial behind Lord Miles (you may have heard me talk about that race once or twice…) and looms very large in his return to the maiden ranks. His prior races tower over his competition in this spot, and he’ll probably be the shortest-priced favorite of the day; #4 OCASEK (4-1): Ran well when second in his debut before faltering as a 3/5 favorite last time out. That was a weird race where the winner freaked to romp by 19 lengths, so I don’t have much of a problem taking it with a grain of salt; #6 RIDE UP (10-1): Was second in his lone two-turn start to date and seems like one of the main pace factors here. If he gets comfortable beneath returning rider Dylan Davis, he’ll have every chance to hang on for a piece of it at a price.

Venencia
G Laurie
Royalty Interest

#9 VENENCIA (4-1): May have been in a bit too deep last time out in the Grade 2 Wonder Again and returns to the allowance ranks here. Her two-back effort at Keeneland was very impressive, as she rallied into a very slow pace and was beaten less than two lengths. The presence of both Lasix and Flavien Prat should help considerably; #4 G LAURIE (4-1): Hasn’t been out of the barn since late-December but showed plenty of potential as a 2-year-old. She was a troubled-trip third in the Grade 1 Natalma at Woodbine, adds Lasix for her first start of the season, and has every right to have matured in her time off; #6 ROYALTY INTEREST (3-1): Was last of five as a 4/5 favorite in the Penn Oaks last time out and will likely go favored given the connections. However, of the Chad Brown trainees, I prefer my top pick. This one’s debut came back just-OK on speed figures, and her likely price hits me as an underlay.

Accede
Randomized
Sacred Wish

#4 ACCEDE (8/5): Was outclassed in the Grade 1 Acorn, where she was fifth behind the current leader in the 3-year-old filly division. The slight cutback to a mile should help her, and anything close to her two-back effort, when she was third in the Grade 2 Eight Belles, would give her every chance in the Wilton; #5 RANDOMIZED (7/5): Graduated with an impressive 92 Beyer Speed Figure last time out before, like her stablemate, being thumped in the Acorn. She’s got plenty of early speed and should be able to make her own trip from the outside post; #3 SACRED WISH (7/2): Has a record that looks much better if you toss the two-back clunker in the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan. She bounced back with a strong second against older competition at Belmont, and John Velazquez returns to take the mount.

Empire Sky
Holla At Your Boy
Kid Kreesa

#9 EMPIRE SKY (7/2): Is approaching “now or never” territory, as he’s come agonizingly close to earning the diploma a few times now. However, this race doesn’t seem like it’s drawn any world-beaters, and he should be able to sit a perfect stalking trip just off the pace; #1 HOLLA AT YOUR BOY (6-1): Showed ample early speed last time out at Delaware, where he dueled early against open company over soft going. The return to the state-bred ranks could move him forward, and first-time Lasix is a very powerful equipment change; #8 KID KREESA (20-1): May have found a soft spot for the debut and is bred to like the grass. His dam’s two prior foals to race have both won, and that mare is a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 winner King Kreesa, who was a heck of a turf horse.

Ouster (MTO)
Danzigwiththestars
Battle of Normandy

#1 DANZIGWITHTHESTARS (6-1): Returns to upstate New York, where he’s run some of the best races of his career. This is his first start off of a long layoff, Luis Saez has been enlisted to ride, and a repeat of some of his past efforts over this oval would make him a major player; #3 BATTLE OF NORMANDY (4-1): Has burned plenty of money this year in two second-place finishes, both as an odds-on favorite. Those didn’t come against bad fields, and his best race could certainly win this, but he’s becoming a bit tough to trust despite showing plenty of talent as a 2-year-old; #7 SHUTTERS (5/2): Had an eventful trip when fourth downstate in his first start for a new barn. There are lots of layoff lines here, so it’s safe to assume he’s had some issues, but he’s proven going two turns and has shown enough versatility to give John Velazquez options.

No More Talk
Towing
Bustin Shout

#3 NO MORE TALK (2-1): Drops in class and cuts back to six furlongs after finishing third as a 7/5 favorite last time out. He won two and three back, and in doing so beat several rivals that also show up here. A return to his preferred level and distance should suit him, and he looks like a formidable favorite; #9 TOWING (6-1): Has found career-best form as a 6-year-old, as he’s won both of his 2023 starts. He goes first off the claim for Norm Casse here, and he’s got a shot if his Churchill Downs form travels with him; #2 BUSTIN SHOUT (10-1): Hasn’t won in a while, but fits on speed figures and was a decent second last time out at Finger Lakes. He’s also got four top-two finishes in six starts over wet tracks, so he figures to benefit in the event of a Saratoga monsoon (copyright Tom Amello, all rights reserved).

Dot’s Dollar
Happy Farm
Cees Get Degrees

#2 DOT’S DOLLAR (8/5): Has won six of his last 10 starts dating back to early-2022, including his last-out race at Belmont where he topped a solid group of optional claimers. His lone start here was a wire-to-wire score at this level, and his usual race makes him the one to beat in a race filled with easy-to-root-for stalwarts of the NYRA circuit; #4 HAPPY FARM (6-1): Goes first off the claim for a capable outfit here and has two wins and a second in four local starts. Flavien Prat rides back when he likely had some options, and this consistent gelding’s usual effort would get him a piece of this; #3 CEES GET DEGREES (7/2): Tired against a better group last time out at Belmont, but cruised to an easy score two back on the Preakness undercard at Pimlico. He looks like the main speed in this race, and if it rains, an off track won’t bother him, judging by that runaway December score in the slop at Aqueduct.

L Street Lady (MTO)
Love Reigns
Love Appeals

#4 LOVE REIGNS (7/5): Had lots of potential excuses in the Limestone last time out, but overcame an extremely unlucky trip and won despite the trouble. The recent bullet drill at Keeneland seems like a sign she’s doing well, and her best effort sure seems like it would thump that of her rivals in the Coronation Cup; #2 LOVE APPEALS (3-1): Has improved with every start and came alive when cut back to one turn by Christophe Clement. She won by nearly five lengths over a next-out winner, and she may have found what she wants to do; #8 BOSSERATI (8-1): Has won all three starts since being switched to the turf by a powerhouse mid-Atlantic outfit and gets a class test here. She’s led every step of the way in her last two tries and figures to be a prominent pace factor.

R10

Valenzan Day (MTO)
Our Country
Encourage

#8 OUR COUNTRY (10-1): Gets considerable class relief and is my top pick in a race where I honestly don’t have a strong opinion. He hasn’t won since January of 2022, but has spent the last 18 months or so running against much better horses. He’s won over this turf course before, and his back class could carry him through; #11 ENCOURAGE (5-1): Is another class-dropper, and while he has to contend with a terrible post, he’s making his third start off the bench and has races from last summer that stack up well against this group. If he finds the form that inspired bettors to send him off at 5/2 in a $100,000 stakes race last fall, he’ll have every chance; #9 SPLENDID SUMMER (8-1): Adds blinkers in his second start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. Prat going elsewhere is a concern, but underrated turf rider Jose Lezcano hops aboard a runner with enough versatility to win wire-to-wire two back and rally from 10th to second in his lone local try last summer.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/13/23; OPENING DAY)

Posted on July 11, 2023 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

It’s been a heck of a 10-month period for me since we last did this. Among other highlights, I’ve gotten engaged, climbed mountains in England, eaten mountains of food in Italy, and benefited from an arrangement that will also see my content published in the New York Daily News.

Now, the work starts. A quick rundown for those new to the party: I’ll be giving out at least one play a day in hopes of growing my mythical $1,000 betting stake. While my picks and analysis will be live on AndrewChampagne.com two days in advance, these won’t be posted until the previous day’s action has concluded (if I could post them further in advance, after all, I’d never lose).

Let’s dive in, shall we?

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I sincerely hope we get the morning line price on #4 OLLIEMYBOY in the fifth. If he doesn’t go favored, that hits me as an overlay. We’ll start things off with a $20 win bet on that one, plus a $10 cold double starting with him and ending with #2 RUNNINGWSCISSORS in the sixth (as a reminder, plays in all turf races assume they stay on the grass).

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Olliemyboy, Race 5
Longshot: Need Some Money, Race 7

Virtual Reality
Sabra Tuff
Bustin Bay

#1 VIRTUAL REALITY (3-1): Got up to win at first asking downstate in late-May and stretches out to two turns here. However, she’s got the pedigree to want every bit of this trip, being by Preakness winner Cloud Computing and out of a mare with stamina-heavy bloodlines; #6 SABRA TUFF (3-1): Has faced nothing but stakes rivals since winning her debut in June of 2022 and should appreciate the class drop. The addition of Lasix also figures to be a plus, and the last-out clunker seems too bad to be true; #5 BUSTIN BAY (5/2): Crushed a field of state-bred rivals last time out at Belmont Park and has won twice in five local outings at the Spa. The hesitation here isn’t the talent, but the two-turn trip. She’s never gone this far before in 32 lifetime starts, so that’s a legitimate concern.

Lady Moscato
Empire Island
Soca

#6 LADY MOSCATO (3-1): Debuted with a decent second at Ellis Park and is one of just two horses in this field with prior experience. She’s a full sister to Grade 1 winner Salty, and the most recent gate work at Churchill indicates she’s bounced out of her unveiling in strong fashion; #2 EMPIRE ISLAND (5/2): Has turned in several flashy works beneath the Twin Spires and figures to be favored. She may have the talent to win this, but her distance-heavy pedigree means she may want much longer than this 5 1/2-furlong trip; #4 SOCA (6-1): Debuts for Todd Pletcher, who must always be respected with first-time starters. She’s a half-sister to Double Thunder, who won a Grade 3 as a 2-year-old, and she attracts Flavien Prat, who’s been riding as well as anyone in the country.

Smokin’ Hot Kitty
Liana B
La Aguililla

#4 SMOKIN’ HOT KITTY (7/2): Came back to form last time out, when she made up lots of ground late and missed by a nose. She earned the diploma at this route last summer, and there’s plenty of speed in this turf sprint to set up for her late kick; #8 LIANA B (5-1): Went wire-to-wire at Monmouth last time out and tries winners for the first time here. Luis Saez, one of the top gate riders anywhere, sees fit to ride, and that could be a tough tandem to beat give this one’s ample early zip; #10 LA AGUILILLA (6-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while, but comes back to the turf and gets Irad Ortiz, Jr., two switches that can’t be ignored. She ran well in a few early-2023 turf sprints and could have options from the outside post.

Salimah
Kalifornia Queen
Sister Otoole

#5 SALIMAH (8/5): Makes her first start since the Grade 1 American Oaks and is half of a Chad Brown duo that looks very tough. She won a classy overnight stakes race before shipping west to Santa Anita, and the return of Lasix in her 4-year-old debut can’t be overlooked; #6 KALIFORNIA QUEEN (4-1): Hasn’t won since June of 2021 but has spent most of that time going up against graded stakes competition. This is just her fifth start since October of 2021, so there have probably been some issues here, but her best effort would give her a big chance; #2 SISTER OTOOLE (6-1): Comes in off of a long layoff, but does so for Graham Motion, who gets horses prepared to go off of long breaks as well as anybody. This distance may be a bit short for her, but there are some classy names in her prior running lines that hint she’s a threat if she’s ready.

Olliemyboy
Dust Devil
Two Thirty Five

#4 OLLIEMYBOY (3-1): Won for a $62,500 tag two starts ago and drops in for less than a third of that price here. He’s been gelded since a last-out clunker at Churchill Downs, and this is an aggressive owner/trainer combination that isn’t afraid to lose horses via the claim box. A repeat of that two-back effort would make him incredibly formidable; #2 DUST DEVIL (4-1): Comes in off of back-to-back second-place finishes downstate against similar company, and he made up a lot of ground late in his most recent outing. Prat sees fit to ride back when he had some options, and he should be going well late; #9 TWO THIRTY FIVE (8-1): Is one of a few 9-year-olds in here, but has shown he still has some gas in the tank. This 13-time winner has proven two-turn form, and his usual effort seems like enough to get a piece of this purse at a bit of a price.

Amundson (MTO)
Runningwscissors
Yarrow

#2 RUNNINGWSCISSORS (8/5): Looms large in his return to state-bred competition after two runs against open company. His sharp win two back saw him earn a career-high 94 Beyer Speed Figure, and while this isn’t a bad group for the level, a similar effort would have the rest of them running for second money; #6 YARROW (4-1): Returns to what’s probably his favorite track, one where he’s never finished worse than third in three local tries. He didn’t get any pace to run at last time going a bit longer, and I think he’ll be much more comfortable here given a decent amount of early speed around him; #7 PHANTOM SMOKE (6-1): Had every right to need his last-out effort given that it was his first try in five months, but he ran a credible third at a bit of a price. The rider switch to Prat is a big one, and he’s another that’s shown an affinity for this turf course in the past.

Need Some Money
Sa Foradada
Condiment Girl

#11 NEED SOME MONEY (8-1): Looks a heck of a lot better if you toss her two-turn efforts. I simply think she’s far better in one-turn races, and that this seven-furlong trip hits her right between the eyes. She should also benefit from a fast pace in front of her and hits me as a live longshot; #5 SA FORADADA (5-1): Has run second on four straight occasions, but gets both blinkers and Irad Ortiz, Jr., here. She makes her second start off a long layoff and has run well going seven furlongs in the past, so there’s plenty to like; #9 CONDIMENT GIRL (7/2): Has proven tough to catch when she gets the early lead, and she seems like the fastest of this bunch out of the gate. Robertino Diodoro can win with new acquisitions, and she fits on speed figures; the question is, can she handle this step up in class out of a $30,000 beaten claimer last month?

My Sea Cottage
Kingfish Stevens
Born a Gambler

#4 MY SEA COTTAGE (7/2): Has done nothing but fire since returning from a long break in December, and has been the victim of a few hard-luck losses downstate. His two wins have come going two turns, and his early speed should be an asset over this inner turf course; #5 KINGFISH STEVENS (5-1): Has made middle moves several times in his past few starts, and I’m guessing that’s part of why blinkers go on today. He was a credible fourth in a stakes race on the Preakness undercard two starts ago, and he’s a win candidate if he turns up more focused in this spot; #2 BORN A GAMBLER (6-1): Won for the first time in a while a couple of weeks ago, when he responded to a drop in class and rallied to get the money. He merits some respect off of the last-out effort, but he’ll have to manage stretching out to two turns and jumping back up the class ladder.

Wine On Tap
Sugar Treat
Saratoga Secret

#7 WINE ON TAP (5/2): Never looked like a loser in her unveiling at Belmont and is a logical favorite in the Grade 3 Schuylerville. The additional furlong should pose no problem for this daughter of Tapit, and a win by her would give Pletcher a seventh Schuylerville win; #11 SUGAR TREAT (6-1): Overcame significant trouble in her debut, where she checked several times, lost ground, and somehow found a way to win. The outside post should give she and Prat smoother sailing, and if she transfers the synthetic form to Saratoga’s dirt track, she could be a major player; #5 SARATOGA SECRET (4-1): Was never seriously troubled in her first-out win at Ellis Park, and that day’s rider, Luis Saez, stays aboard for her first try against winners. Her lone work since that race was sharp, and like his former assistant trainer, D. Wayne Lukas is aiming for his seventh Schuylerville Thursday afternoon.

R10

Stone of Destiny
Here We Go Again
Pimenova

#4 STONE OF DESTINY (9/2): Was last of seven in her debut, but she had an excuse that day given a rough trip. David Donk’s horses often need a race or two to get going, the class drop should help her find her footing, and it’s encouraging that John Velazquez stays aboard in the Opening Day finale; #10 HERE WE GO AGAIN (4-1): Hasn’t raced since November, but returns for a barn that hits at a 29% clip with new acquisitions. She showed some early speed a season ago, and I’m anticipating Saez will have her up close throughout in her 3-year-old debut; #11 PIMENOVA (8-1): Doesn’t draw a spectacular post but should certainly appreciate stretching out to two turns. Her best races in 2022 came at similar routes of ground, and she exits a decent third-place effort going a bit shorter at Belmont in mid-June.