BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $809.45

Horse racing is a pari-mutuel game. We all pool our money against one another and root our lungs out trying to get our individual tickets home. However, there’s an unspoken respect among those who handicap and post picks for every race, on every card, at one of the hardest places to win in the game (side note: If anyone thinks that respect doesn’t exist on my end, with regard to anyone who does this in any publication, go take a long walk off a short pier).

With that in mind, I’ll use this space to plug fellow Pink Sheet handicapper Liam Durbin’s latest book. “Fathers Wait” is available on Amazon in paperback form. Liam didn’t ask me for this space, or for my opinion, but I’ll simply say this: Having worked with him in some form or fashion for the better part of a decade, I can tell you anything he does is going to be good.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: I was dead right in trying to beat St. Joe Louis, who did indeed falter as a post-time favorite for the ninth time in 10 career outings. However, I only had winner Royal Spirit underneath, not on top, so I found a way to simultaneously be correct and drop $32.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: In a card full of fantastic betting races, I’ll focus on the eighth, the Yaddo Handicap. My top pick is #7 MARVELOUS MAUDE, who I’ll key in $4 exactas above and below #1 ICE PRINCESS, #5 RUNAWAY RUMOUR, and #10 CLASSIC LADY. I’ll also have a $6 win bet on her, and she’s a single in a cold $5 double ending in the eighth that uses #5 ANDIAMO A FIRENZE in the seventh (the Funny Cide).

TOTAL WAGERED: $35.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Maple Leaf Mel, Race 1
Longshot: Slow Decision, Race 11

R1

Maple Leaf Mel
Les Bon Temps
Song Parody

#3 MAPLE LEAF MEL: Drew off with something in reserve earlier this month, and in doing so ran to her lofty $150,000 price tag from a sale earlier this year. Any sort of step forward would make her very tough to beat in this New York-Bred Showcase Day opener; #2 LES BON TEMPS: Comes in to face state-breds for the first time after chasing the talented Wonder Wheel in the Debutante at Churchill Downs. These are shallower waters, at least on paper, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she takes a step forward; #1 SONG PARODY: Made her debut a winning one downstate back in June and has since moved to the barn of Christophe Clement. She may not be alone up front early on, but she may have the early speed to turn the rail draw into an asset.

R2

Clement entry
Photon
Funny How

CLEMENT ENTRY: I prefer #1A VOLEUSE, who cuts back to six furlongs and has an experience edge over much of this group. She’s shown an ability to pass others late, which could come in handy in a race with some early zip; #3 PHOTON: Was second last time out in a race my top pick exits, and this one beat that one home on that occasion. I think there’s a chance she wants more ground, not less, but she also certainly seems to be moving forward; #4 FUNNY HOW: Was third last time out downstate and sports a few flashy local drills ahead of her second lifetime outing. Improvement is logical at second asking, and she doesn’t need to step forward much to be a factor here.

R3

Barese
Price Discipline
Montebello

#4 BARESE: Has been running exclusively against stakes company since breaking his maiden as a 2-year-old. He was an impressive winner of the New York Derby at Finger Lakes last time out, and perhaps two turns is the route he’s wanted all along; #1 PRICE DISCIPLINE: Cruised home to top first-level allowance foes last month and takes a logical step up into stakes company in the Albany. It wouldn’t be a shock if he goes off favored given the connections, and we know he relishes this route of ground; #3 MONTEBELLO: Capitalized on a perfect trip last time out and will try two turns here in his first start for new trainer Todd Pletcher. I don’t love betting horses off of perfect-trip scores, though, and in this case, I’m not sure he’ll be able to get comfortable in the early stages.

R4

Chulligan
Quick to Accuse
Michael Leis

#4 CHULLIGAN: Is by Justify, out of Grade 1 winner Bar of Gold, and fetched $825,000 at auction last summer. He’s been working like a very promising 2-year-old for Christophe Clement, who’s enlisted first-call rider Joel Rosario to hop aboard; #2 QUICK TO ACCUSE: Fetched $200,000 at the OBS sale this past spring and sports a few solid local drills ahead of his unveiling. If my top pick doesn’t fire, it’s anyone’s race to win, and it wouldn’t be surprising if this one was a runner; #8 MICHAEL LEIS: Earned a bullet for a three-furlong drill a few days ago and makes his debut for Mike Maker and Luis Saez. This trainer/jockey combination is one of the best on the circuit, and both prior foals out of this dam to race have won.

R5

Fingal’s Cave
Venti Valentine
Let Her Inspire U

#2 FINGAL’S CAVE: Improved to 3-for-3 with an easy score in her first two-turn outing last month. She’s shown this distance won’t trip her up, and while the Fleet Indian Stakes does represent a class hike, it certainly seems like she’s read to handle it; #5 VENTI VALENTINE: Earned a spot in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks earlier this year and certainly seems fast enough to go with my top pick early on. I do wonder if she’s better going slightly shorter, but she may be fast enough to clear this bunch from her outside post; #1 LET HER INSPIRE U: Stretches out to a route of ground after two straight wins sprinting. One of them came over this surface late last month, and while the pedigree doesn’t scream “two turns,” she does fit on figures and wouldn’t be a gigantic stunner.

R6

Kiss Me Smile (MTO)
U Should Be Dancing
Tis a Pity

#10 U SHOULD BE DANCING: Seems to have found her form after taking a long time to break her maiden. She’s won twice in her last four starts, where she hasn’t been worse than third and has shown a much-improved closing kick; #9 TIS A PITY: Was second at this level and route last time, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s bet down from her 9/2 morning like price. She beat my top pick two back going seven furlongs and has been second at this route twice in as many local outings; #4 AUNT VIRGINIA: Has run well in both starts of her two-race career and tries winners for the first time. She chased a heavy favorite home in her debut at Delaware, won a photo here last time out, and is lightly-raced enough to have plenty of room to improve.

R7

Andiamo a Frienze
Acoustic Ave
Donegal Surges

#5 ANDIAMO A FIRENZE: Headlines the Funny Cide, which has drawn several promising state-bred 2-year-olds and is one of my favorite races of the day. He splashed home to win his debut in the slop before running third in the Grade 3 Sanford, and he seems like the one to catch; #1 ACOUSTIC AVE: Won his debut like a very good horse, when he was less affected by a very slow, tiring surface than his rivals and won by nearly eight lengths. This is a much tougher group than that one, but he may very well be talented enough to win here, too; #4 DONEGAL SURGES: Rallied from sixth to win his unveiling and is wheeled back pretty quickly by a barn that doesn’t usually do this. No works since that victory is a bit of a red flag, but it takes a mature horse to rate and win at first asking and he’d benefit from a pace meltdown.

R8

Marvelous Maude
Runaway Rumour
Ice Princess

#7 MARVELOUS MAUDE: Has never missed the board in eight career starts and won at this route earlier this summer despite a rough trip. She’s one of the higher weights in this Yaddo Handicap (which puzzles me since she’s giving weight to stakes winners despite not being one herself), but it’s tough to go against a consistent horse doing what she wants to do; #5 RUNAWAY RUMOUR: Hasn’t won since June of last year but has spent most of the past year-plus going against much better horses. Her running lines feature the likes of Bleecker Street, Princess Grace, and Plum Ali, among others, and this spot represents significant class relief; #1 ICE PRINCESS: Is an ultra-consistent mare that seems to fire the same shot every time out regardless of surface. She was second last time out in her first start since April, and the inside post on this inner turf course could be an asset given her tactical speed.

R9

Key Point
Who Hoo Thats Me
Anejo

#3 KEY POINT: Gets a reluctant nod in an optional claiming event that looks much more like a stakes race. He’s never fired a bad shot, is a nose away from being 3-for-3, and has enough flexibility in his running style to give Manny Franco plenty of options out of the gate; #7 WHO HOO THATS ME: Is a closer in a race that seems full of early speed, which makes him one that’s hard to ignore. His last-out win at Belmont was a career-best race, Flavien Prat sees fit to ride back, and the recent uptick in his morning workouts is hard to ignore; #12 ANEJO: Does his best running over this surface and was a fast-closing second behind a very nice horse in a similar spot a few weeks ago. Toss the turf and synthetic races, and this late-runner’s form looks much, much better.

R10

Bankit (MTO)
Somelikeithotbrown
Cross Border

#3 SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN: Ran off in the Lure earlier this month and comes back against state-bred competition. Assuming he can relax a bit, his best shot will make this multiple graded stakes-winner tough to beat in a fantastic renewal of the West Point; #7 CROSS BORDER: Completes a powerful 1-2 punch for trainer Mike Maker, even though this 8-year-old’s all-time best efforts may be behind him. Even so, he was beaten just four lengths in the Grade 2 Bowling Green, and it’s tough to ignore a local record that features six wins in nine starts over this turf course; #5 CITY MAN: Comes in off a victory in the Grade 3 Forbidden Apple, but doesn’t get much in the way of class relief here. He’d benefit from a hot pace, and there is some speed signed on, but that last-out 104 Beyer Speed Figure came with a picture-perfect trip that may not replicate itself here.

R11

On Palm Sunday
Addicted to You
Slow Decision

#2 ON PALM SUNDAY: Gets another shot from me after probably going a bit too fast last time out when he didn’t necessarily have to. He once again seems like the lone speed, which is dangerous on the inner turf, and unlike last time, he doesn’t have to clear most of the field to get to the rail; #11 ADDICTED TO YOU: Is 0-for-12 but has run second in each of his last three starts, including the race my top pick exits. The far outside post is a problem, but Flavien Prat knows this gelding well and he’d benefit from another runner going with my top pick; #10 SLOW DECISION: Comes back to the turf in his first start off the claim by Peter Walder, who has shown over the years that he can win with new acquisitions. He probably moved a bit early in his debut on the lawn down at Belmont, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he moves forward off of the last-out clunker despite the wide post.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $841.45

Cheap plug: I’ll be on the HHH Racing Podcast Thursday evening to preview the power-packed Travers Day program. You can watch live at 7:30 pm Eastern time on the HHH Racing Podcast YouTube channel. There’s always an active comments section, which makes for lively discussion and fun debate. We’ll focus primarily on Saturday’s late Pick Five, but that’s not to say we’ll ignore other races on the program.

I was on a few weeks ago and had an awesome time talking shop, and I don’t expect this show to be any different. Howard, Peter, and Paul do amazing work and have as in-depth a library of episodes as any show I’ve come across (I should know, I used to host one). Hope to see you all there Thursday evening!

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: My action was washed out when the steeplechase race was cancelled.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the third, where I’ll hope #6 ST. JOE LOUIS is a beaten favorite for (not a misprint) the ninth time in his 10th career start. My $5 doubles starting in that event use #3 ICARUS and #7 MERCI there, followed by #5 SECRET THUNDER and #7 EE YAH in the fourth. Additionally, I’ll play $2 exactas using Icarus and Merci on top of those two, #4 ROYAL SPIRIT, and St. Joe Louis.

TOTAL WAGERED: $32.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Ee Yah, Race 4
Longshot: Danzigwiththestars, Race 7

R1

Monterey Peninsula
Necromancer
Supersonic

#6 MONTEREY PENINSULA: Debuts for Wesley Ward, whose barn has been firing on all cylinders at this stand. This certainly seems like a very weak spot for a first-time starter to be unveiled, and the cushy outside draw is a big plus; #2 NECROMANCER: Has a record that looks far better if you solely consider the dirt sprints. He probably moved a bit too early last time when fourth at Monmouth Park, but he’s got back races at Aqueduct that would give him a chance; #4 SUPERSONIC: Sold for $175,000 and debuts with a tag that’s just over 10% of that total. That’s a red flag, but he does sport a solid local worktab and wouldn’t be a gigantic surprise in the Thursday opener.

R2

Playlist
Lady Caraggio
Reflexivity

#10 PLAYLIST: Hammered for $400,000 at Keeneland last September and has been training forwardly for Wesley Ward (who could conceivably sweep the early double). Her dam is a stakes-winning half-sister to top turf miler Gio Ponti, and this one’s a half to Grade 3 winner You’re To Blame; #6 LADY CARAGGIO: Has an all-European pedigree that says she’ll love the lawn, and Bill Mott-trained firsters have been running fairly well all summer long. She’s been working steadily (and pretty fast, too), and I wouldn’t be surprised if she was ready right away; #11 REFLEXIVITY: Needs a scratch to draw in off the also-eligible list but merits plenty of respect if she does. This Irish-bred is another with turf up and down in the pedigree, as her dam was a Group 3-winning turf sprinter overseas.

R3

Cryo (MTO)
Icarus
Merci

#3 ICARUS: Drops way down in class after being beaten three lengths by optional claiming foes downstate. This event for non-winners of two is a significantly weaker spot, and this one ran several very strong races this past spring in Kentucky; #7 MERCI: Was claimed out of his last race by Jose Camejo, who’s been as good as anybody with new acquisitions. He suffered from a wide trip in his local debut, and he could move forward if he’s able to save any ground here; #6 ST. JOE LOUIS: Gets a mention here, but is a horse I cannot endorse on top. He has lost at odds of 6/5 or shorter on five straight occasions, and it’s not like he’s been running against world-beaters. If he beats me, he beats me.

R4

Ee Yah
Secret Thunder
Warman Road

#7 EE YAH: Debuted running second at Monmouth in what’s turned out to be a key race. That day’s winner hit the board in the Grade 3 Sanford, the third-place finisher came right back to win, and I think this one looms large dropping in for a tag; #5 SECRET THUNDER: Debuts for a patient barn and has every right to need a race. However, the last few local workouts have been pretty sharp, including an August 8th gate drill that was eighth-fastest of 51 that day. Offspring of Bolt d’Oro have shown themselves to be precocious, and this one attracts Luis Saez; #3 WARMAN ROAD: Debuts for Rob Atras and sports some decent-looking drills at Belmont Park. Every prior foal from this dam that’s raced has won, including a minor stakes-winner in Louisiana.

R5

Amount
Direct Order
Locally Owned

#3 AMOUNT: Ran horribly last time out, and I’m willing to forgive that clunker. He won three in a row earlier this year at three different racetracks, and while there’s every chance his best days are behind him, anything close to his best would make him tough to beat; #1 DIRECT ORDER: Has bounced around barns a lot lately, and for good reason given his 12 career victories. One of them came here just a few weeks ago, and I expect him to come running late beneath Luis Saez; #8 LOCALLY OWNED: Hasn’t done much running since upsetting a rich stakes race last fall at Belmont. He drops way down the ladder for this one, and he’s another that could be a win threat if he channels his best form.

R6

Light Stars
Rocky Sky
Beside Herself

#7 LIGHT STARS: Might have needed her U.S. debut, which came off a nine-month break. She contested some very strong races overseas, including the Group 1 Prix de Diane. I’m expecting improvement second off the bench, and that could put her in the winner’s circle over a very tough field; #8 ROCKY SKY: Ran second in a race at this level last time out and stretches out to a marathon distance here. She ran very well to win a minor stakes race overseas going 1 1/4 miles, and this trip may be what she needs to record her first North American triumph; #2 BESIDE HERSELF: Was third behind Walkathon and McKulick in the Grade 3 Regret two starts back. She tries this 12-furlong journey for the first time, but she’s got the pedigree to handle it and may still be moving forward in the middle of her 3-year-old season.

R7

Tiwanaku (MTO)
Danzigwiththestars
Dripping Gold

#3 DANZIGWITHTHESTARS: Is 3-for-5 at Saratoga (and 0-for-9 elsewhere), and one of those wins came in a swiftly-run optional claiming event at the beginning of the meet. She goes outside of the state-bred ranks for this one, but it’s tough to go against an in-form horse that clearly loves this course; #5 DRIPPING GOLD: Got marooned in post #11 last time out and may have moved a little early. He was talented enough to win at first asking here last summer, and he’ll add blinkers for his third start of the season; #1 JAMES JONES: Ran on late to be beaten less than two lengths last time out, and that day’s winner came right back to win at next asking. He’s shown an ability to make up ground late, and he’d benefit from a lively pace that could set up for the way he runs.

R8

Tizzy in the Sky
Handbelle
Precursory

#5 TIZZY IN THE SKY: Settled for second in her debut after doing some of the dirty work up front. That day’s third-place finisher came right back to win, she exits a bullet drill for new trainer Jose Camejo, and Joel Rosario sees fit to ride back; #1 HANDBELLE: Hasn’t raced since October and adds Lasix for her 3-year-old debut. Bill Mott knows how to win off of long breaks, and while the inside draw’s a bit tricky, the consistent works are a plus and she may be ready to run; #8 PRECURSORY: Is the other Mott trainee, and she’s run fairly well downstate. The outside draw could be beneficial, but it’s worth wondering why Joel Rosario hopped off to ride my top pick.

R9

Skims
Wonka
A Mo Reay

#3 SKIMS: Drops in class to contest the Riskaverse after running against graded company in each of her last three outings. This field isn’t bad, but it’s a far cry from the likes of Spendarella, Consumer Spending, and Dolce Zel, and I think she’ll appreciate the class relief; #11 WONKA: Was a fast-closing fourth in the Grade 3 Soaring Softly downstate and stretches back out to two turns. The far-outside post is far from ideal, but we know two turns shouldn’t be an issue and there should be some pace signed on; #10 A MO REAY: Tries turf for the first time and is bred to love it. She’s out of Grade 3-placed turfer Margaret Reay and boasts a strong 341 turf Tomlinson figure, so it wouldn’t be surprising if she’s wanted the grass all along.

R10

Stainless Steel (MTO)
Digital Future
Sandrone

#6 DIGITAL FUTURE: Has been off 11 months and runs for a tag in his comeback race. For most outfits, this would be a red flag, but this one’s aggressive enough to where it doesn’t scare me. His 2021 races were solid, and any forward progression off of those figures would make him tough in the Thursday finale; #5 SANDRONE: Drops in for a tag after showing some speed in a pair of outings against allowance foes. This race seems light on quality speed, and I think Luis Saez will be able to work out a trip aboard a runner that showed some potential a season ago; #2 AFTER FIVE: Speaking of potential, this one chased Golden Pal in the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. He’s won just once since but makes his first start off the claim for an astute outfit, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a move forward in his second start off a short freshening.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $841.45

There are times where I wonder if I’m doing things wrong, and horse racing Twitter doesn’t do anything to quiet those doubts. We’re three-quarters of the way through the meet, and the tweets I’ve put out that have had the most engagement involve the price of breakfast at San Francisco International Airport, Christophe Clement’s magical salmon pants, and newspapers on benches (more on those Saturday; that’s called foreshadowing, kids!).

But then there are times where I think I’m onto something. As I tweeted Monday, my site, AndrewChampagne.com, set a record with 22,000 visitors last summer, when I had the Saratoga meet of my life. With 11 racing days to go, we’ve eclipsed that total, and 30,000 is a total that’s within sight.

I’m weird. I think there’s value in hard work and pushing out the best content one can on a daily basis. Times have changed, and there aren’t as many people doing what I do anymore. To those of you that have taken the time to read my stuff: Thanks.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Devamani got no pace to close into, and I had the race after that one wrong, too. I dropped $30.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: Let’s add another variable to my action and, for the first time this summer, play a steeplechase race. I’ll focus on the early double, which starts with the Michael G. Walsh Novice Stakes. My $4 tickets start with #1 FREDDY FLINTSHIRE and #7 SCORPION’S REVENGE, and end with #3 GAMBLING GIRL and #7 AUGUST BLOOM.

TOTAL WAGERED: $16.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Roderick, Race 5
Longshot: Drakon, Race 7

R1

Scorpion’s Revenge
Freddy Flintshire
Decisive Triumph

#7 SCORPION’S REVENGE: Came from way back to win a listed stakes race last time out, and he’s 3-for-3 going 2 1/4 miles or longer over fences. This 2 3/8-mile trip should hit him right between the eyes, and I think he’ll be tough to hold off; #1 FREDDY FLINTSHIRE: Made it two in a row with a solid score over allowance foes earlier this summer. He goes out for one of the top barns on the steeplechase circuit, gets one of the top riders, and is a major player provided he takes to the added distance; #3 DECISIVE TRIUMPH: Hasn’t won in a while but has hit the board four times in as many starts this season, all in stakes races. Most recently, he was second in the Kiser a few weeks ago, and he figures to be prominent from the jump (no pun intended).

R2

Gambling Girl
August Bloom
Maddie’s Grace

#3 GAMBLING GIRL: Has had two pretty rough trips in both of her outings and gets one more chance from me here. She’s shown late interest twice now, and this Todd Pletcher trainee runs like a horse that’ll appreciate this seven-furlong journey; #7 AUGUST BLOOM: Debuts for Joe Sharp, sports a few solid drills, and may benefit from a cushy outside draw. This daughter of Arrogate attracts Luis Saez, who likely had several options here; #5 MADDIE’S GRACE: Was an OK third in her debut race, and that day’s runner-up has since come back to win. This barn has been ice-cold all meet long, but improvement is logical at second asking, and of the ones that have run before, she seems to have the most early speed.

R3

Tommy Gun (MTO)
Built to Last
Sharp Sensation

#4 BUILT TO LAST: Almost certainly went too fast early on last time when fifth against maiden special weight foes. He drops in for a tag for the first time, and while it’s not as big a drop as it may seem given the shared state-bred condition, he sure looks like the one to catch; #5 SHARP SENSATION: Settled for second behind a much-the-best winner at this level and route earlier in the meet. He crossed the wire first in a similar race downstate before being disqualified, and Luis Saez sees fit to ride back; #1 SOUTHERN CIVILITY: Comes back to turf, which is probably his preferred surface, and would benefit from a pace meltdown. It’s not like he’s gotten routed in his two prior turf sprints, and he figures to be a big price.

R4

Brawndo
Cole Spur
Cathedral Beach

#2 BRAWNDO: Was third in his first start off a freshening down at Laurel Park and comes up from Maryland for this event. What intrigues me most is that he brings that day’s pilot along with him for just one single mount. This makes me think he’s well-meant against what hits me as a suspect field for the level; #4 COLE SPUR: Has a record that looks far better if you toss the two-back clunker against a far better starter allowance group. He was second when last seen at Churchill back in June, and he’s got the speed to be a factor from a very early stage; #3 CATHEDRAL BEACH: Capitalized on a big class drop earlier this summer with a runaway score. He was claimed out of that race and tries open claiming company after thrashing that field of non-winners of two.

R5

Roderick
Kinetic Sky
Good Culture

#5 RODERICK: Has shown early speed against far better horses and takes a drop in class to this restricted claiming event. Trainer Phil Bauer has been sending out live horses all summer long, and I think this one gets very comfortable dictating terms early on; #6 KINETIC SKY: May have needed his 2022 debut, which came off a very long break. He’s another class-dropper, and it helps that the last-out second-place finisher came back to win impressively last week; #3 GOOD CULTURE: Was third last time out in a race without a lot of early pace, which didn’t exactly play to his strengths. He generally runs the same race every time out, and he’d benefit from another rival going with my top pick as the field exits the Wilson chute.

R6

King Angelo
Under Oath
Thin White Duke

#5 KING ANGELO: Is certainly a “horse for course” that does his best running going short on turf at Saratoga. He earned a 91 Beyer Speed Figure in his wire-to-wire score last time out, and while this is a pretty good field, it’s tough for me to go against a horse that likes this track and seems to be in peak form; #3 UNDER OATH: Ran too poorly to be true last time out in his first race since the spring. He tries turf for the first time, but is kin to a three-time turf winner that contested last year’s Grade 3 Virginia Derby, so there’s reason to believe he’ll like the lawn; #6 THIN WHITE DUKE: Came flying late to be beaten a neck by the freakishly-fast Golden Pal, and my guess is he’ll go favored here. A repeat of that effort may win this one, but he sure seems to go out of his way to find trouble, and I hate picking horses like that on top (especially in sprint races that don’t leave much time for a runner to recover from poor racing luck).

R7

Drakon
The Prince’s Spur
Proven Hope

#9 DRAKON: Certainly looks like the lone early speed, which is always dangerous on Saratoga’s inner turf course. Kendrick Carmouche is one of the most aggressive gate riders on the circuit, and the game plan seems apparent: Get to the lead, get comfortable, and try to steal it at a bit of a price; #8 THE PRINCE’S SPUR: Drops in for a tag after a rough trip earlier this summer against maiden special weight foes. He was still fourth that day, beaten less than four lengths, and he should certainly appreciate the shallower waters; #5 PROVEN HOPE: Comes back to turf and tries two turns for the first time, and I think this is what he wants to do. Sire Street Boss is an excellent turf influence, and broodmare sire Smart Strike is one of the top stamina influences in the game.

R8

Lil Commissioner
Crypto Cash
Boldish

#5 LIL COMMISSIONER: Makes his first start for a small barn that’s enjoyed plenty of success at this stand. He woke up on a big class drop last time out, has a race history that includes some pretty heavy hitters, and may be tough if he runs his usual race; #2 CRYPTO CASH: Has hit the board in each of his last six starts and has bounced around between barns on this circuit. A few of his races downstate were very good, and he’d benefit from a fast pace that could very well materialize; #3 BOLDISH: Scratched out of a race earlier this summer where I tried to beat him, but I think he isn’t without a chance here. He’s been off since January but got very good late last year, when he won three in a row for this outfit (including one race at this route).

R9

Tide of the Sea
Bluegrass Parkway
Oceans Map

#3 TIDE OF THE SEA: May not be the horse he was a year or two ago, but he sure seems like the lone early speed in the John’s Call. If he’s allowed to get comfortable and dictate terms in this 1 5/8-mile turf marathon, I’m not sure anyone will be able to come get him; #2 BLUEGRASS PARKWAY: Showed a bit more early interest last time, when he was beaten less than four lengths in a similar spot at Colonial Downs. This is his third start off the bench for Mike Maker, and he showed enough late last year for his connections to run him in the Grade 1 Canadian International at Woodbine; #4 OCEANS MAP: Ships up from Monmouth, where he most recently ran a fast-closing second going a bit shorter. However, he won a stakes race at Delaware Park going 1 1/2 miles last summer, so this sort of trip isn’t entirely foreign to him.

R10

Chaysenbryn (MTO)
Control Function
Quaria Thunder

#8 CONTROL FUNCTION: Hasn’t run since January, but is working consistently ahead of her return and showed some potential before going to the sidelines. These are aggressive connections that could’ve found a much softer spot, and a return to her winter form would make her tough; #10 QUARIA THUNDER: Has improved since shipping up to New York, and sports two wins and two seconds since making that journey. This is a class test, and the outside post doesn’t help, but Jose Camejo does fantastic work with new acquisitions and she may have the speed to clear most of these going into the first turn; #5 STELLA MARS: Didn’t get up last time out, and in doing so made my all-time nightmare reel (I needed her pretty badly that day). Maybe it’s scorn, but it’s worth noting that while her usual race gives her a chance, both of her wins came sprinting downstate. This begs the question: Does she want two turns?

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $871.45

Putting together a list of people I was delighted to run into over the past week or so would make my editor very displeased, because it’d take up most of this page. I’ll simply say that it’s been amazing to reconnect with a bunch of people (and connect with some new folks, too).

I get asked sometimes if I miss working in horse racing on a full-time basis. I don’t. My income is tied to the gambling industry in general now, not just racing, and I work for an amazing company that values content production and invests in people who are passionate about what they do. The work I do in racing is an added bonus, and I do it because I want to, not because I have to.

However, I very much miss the people I’ve come to know and value not just as colleagues, but friends. If you’re reading this, and we’ve talked for any length of time over the last few days at Saratoga: Thanks.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Neither of my closers in the Smart N Fancy fired. I dropped $29.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fifth race. #3 DEVAMANI looks imposing there, so I’ll have a $15 win ticket on that one. I’ll also single him in $5 doubles ending with #5 RARIFY, #7 SPELTERINI, and #8 ROSIE’S ALIBI in the sixth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Love Reigns, Race 9
Longshot: Miscreant, Race 10

R1

Cookie Crumbs
Corningstone
Hola Gata

#5 COOKIE CRUMBS: Has a few big works since shipping up from Monmouth Park for Todd Pletcher, who probably wouldn’t have moved her here without a good reason. Both prior runners out of this dam are winners, her second dam was a Grade 1 winner, and Luis Saez has been enticed to ride; #8 CORNINGSTONE: Rallied to finish third in the “no contest” race last month, and of the ones that exit that race, this is the one I want to bet back. The pace of that race was very slow, and I think this one may be a bit more lively; #7 HOLA GATA: Was one of the horses that slowed to a stop in the “no contest” race, and they’ll try again here. Her works since that race have been slow, which isn’t ideal, but dismiss this barn, in these races, at your own peril.

R2

Quickflash (MTO)
Yarrow
Phantom Smoke

#6 YARROW: Rallied to win his second straight start over an OK group, one that included a runner-up which came right back to win at next asking. There’s some speed signed on in this one, and he and Joel Rosario look like the tandem they’ll have to hold off late; #7 PHANTOM SMOKE: Was third behind two “horses for courses” at this level and route last month. On speed figures, he’s definitely got a shot, but I’m worried there’s a bit of “hang” to him, and there are some talented runners in this one, too; #2 DEEP COVER: Didn’t make the lead last time and faded to run sixth, which was probably the impetus for a rider change to Eric Cancel. My guess is he’ll be prominent from the jump, and a repeat of his two-back performance would put him right there.

R3

Forty Smooth
Englehart entry
Nurse Rachett

#3 FORTY SMOOTH: Is protected from being claimed given the long layoff, and I love it when trainers utilize that rule. It hints at confidence and not wanting to lose the horse, and if she takes her Woodbine and Gulfstream form with her, she’ll have a big chance; ENGLEHART ENTRY: I prefer #1 VIRADIA, who goes back to this barn after running second going a bit longer downstate. She’s won twice already this season and seems to be in good form; #5 NURSE RACHETT: Hasn’t won in a while but goes to a barn that wins with new acquisitions at an astonishing 40% clip. How she’ll perform in her first start on this circuit in a while is anyone’s guess, but she’ll be a price and a step forward would give her a chance.

R4

Icon
Vincent
Arthurian

#7 ICON: Has run third in two starts against similar since coming off the bench, and he cuts back in distance for this event. The field he faced going a mile last time out was probably better than this one, and he doesn’t have to move forward in order to be a major player; #2 VINCENT: Broke his maiden two back before finding allowance foes just a bit too tough. This is probably the right level, and he could work out an ideal stalking trip; #4 ARTHURIAN: Flashed speed earlier in the meet in his first start against winners. That race was won by a much-the-best class-dropper, and he was beaten just 2 1/2 lengths by the runner-up. This seems like a weaker group, and he should be prominent early once again.

R5

Royal Tryst (MTO)
Devamani
Grand Journey

#3 DEVAMANI: Has spent the bulk of his career running against much, much better horses. He’s a multiple graded stakes winner that shows up for a $32,000 tag, and I have a tough time believing we’ll get something close to the 5/2 morning line price (though I’ll gladly take it if it’s available come post time); #6 GRAND JOURNEY: Has run well in all three New York starts this season, including a race for a slightly higher tag where he was second and earned a solid 87 Beyer Speed Figure. This barn has been very cold at this stand, but this gelding’s a consistent runner that merits a long look; #8 TIBERIUS MERCURIUS: Was likely worn down by a very quick third quarter last time out, when he finished fourth in the same race my second selection exits. He’ll likely be prominent from an early stage again here beneath Luis Saez.

R6

Spelterini
Rarify
Rosie’s Alibi

#7 SPELTERINI: Came from well back to be second in what sure seems like a live race. That day’s third-place finisher came back to win impressively at second asking, and the pedigree says this one will appreciate the extra furlong she gets in this spot; #5 RARIFY: Showed speed when second in her unveiling earlier this summer, when she was reeled in by the talented Kaling. She should make the lead here once again, and it wouldn’t be surprising if she proves tough to run down; #8 ROSIE’S ALIBI: Figures to take plenty of money given the ownership group and the fact she’s been outworking the talented Moma, who won last weekend. She hammered for $625,000 last summer across the street, and she’s got a shot in this intriguing 2-year-old maiden event.

R7

Claytnthelionheart (MTO)
Balthus
Offlee Naughty

#3 BALTHUS: Comes in off of two wins in a row at long distances downstate and looms large in this 12-furlong marathon. Some horses just relish these trips. He sure seems to be one of them, and if he’s right, this race is probably for second; #9 OFFLEE NAUGHTY: Hasn’t won this year, but has been keeping some pretty tough company. It wasn’t too long ago he was 5-1 in a Grade 3 at Santa Anita, and I expect him to be running on late at a price; #1 MUD PIE: Makes his first start as a gelding here, and perhaps the ultimate equipment change will help him. He seems to be pace-dependent, but we know he can run well at this distance, and that’s a huge asset.

R8

Repealing
Chloe Rose
Awesome Indra

#2 REPEALING: May have bounced a bit off of a very sharp two-back score when third as the 9/5 favorite in her first start against winners. I’m expecting a return to form here, and such a race would make her a formidable favorite; #4 CHLOE ROSE: Won a starter allowance event here in the first few days of the meet and has clearly shown an affinity for the Spa. She’s 2-for-3 with a second over this surface, and I think she could benefit from rating just off of a fast pace; #3 AWESOME INDRA: Didn’t make the lead last time out and paid dearly for it when off the board at this level and route. However, I think she’s capable of much better. She won four of six starts prior to that race, and the switch back to Irad Ortiz, Jr., is a notable one.

R9

Love Reigns
Redifined
Aztec Nights

#2 LOVE REIGNS: Romped in her debut before finishing a competitive fourth in the Group 2 Queen Mary at Royal Ascot. All indications are she’s trained forwardly since her return, and a repeat of her debut effort likely trounces this Bolton Landing field; #7 REDIFINED: Won first time out for a barn that doesn’t win with many firsters, so you know there’s talent there. John Velazquez likely had several options, but he lands here, and the maturity she showed when rating in her debut isn’t common; #6 AZTEC NIGHTS: Came running late to win her debut and seems like one of several precocious Sharp Azteca offspring. The lone work since that win looks excellent, and a move forward would give her a big shot to hit the board at a nice price.

R10

Vagaries
Miscreant
Candlestick Maker

#8 VAGARIES: Drops in for a tag after misfiring downstate in her 2022 debut. Her two runs last year weren’t bad, including a third-place finish in her debut last August, and I think she’ll appreciate the shallower waters in the Sunday finale; #6 MISCREANT: Improved considerably in her first turf start, when she ran second behind a horse that came right back to top winners at next asking. The rider switch to Jose Ortiz is noteworthy, and she’s lightly-raced enough to still have some improvement left in her; #9 CANDLESTICK MAKER: Showed some interest when fourth for a higher claiming tag and drops in class a bit here. She may have been a bit too close to the pace last time, and given the late kick she showed two back at Belmont, she’d likely benefit from a pace meltdown should one occur.