Saratoga | Andrew Champagne

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/30/22)

Posted on July 29, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $798.20

If you’ve read my work for the past few years, you know my girlfriend is an elementary school teacher. She’s preparing to go back for the start of the academic year in a few weeks (they start earlier out here), and is doing everything she can to make her public school, fifth-grade classroom the best learning environment it can be.

In that vein, she’s set up a drive to raise money to purchase supplies rooted in STEAM concepts (science, technology, engineering, arts, and math). Times are tough for a lot of people right now, but if you’re out there looking for a worthy cause to support, I can assure you this checks that box.

Click here if you want to learn more or are interested in donating. Let’s help a bunch of fifth-graders learn by doing!

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: I took a shot against an 8/5 favorite in the fifth race, one that backfired when it won as clearly the best horse. I dropped $30.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the early part of the card, and I sincerely hope we get the 5-1 morning line price on #3 TATUM in the opener. I’ll have a $15 win bet, and I’ll single him in $5 doubles ending with #6 C’EST MAGNIFIQUE, #7 MONTEPULCIANO, and #8 DECCAN PRINCE in the second.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Jackie’s Warrior, Race 8
Longshot: Big Bobby, Race 5

Tatum
Swiss Guard
Capture the Flag

#3 TATUM: Is the only horse in this field with a start, and it was a good one. He missed by a nose at Parx, has fired a bullet drill since then, and attracts his rider from Philadelphia to come north to Saratoga for just one mount; #2 SWISS GUARD: Has a few solid gate drills for Steve Asmussen and is bred to be a good one. He’s a son of American Pharoah, and his dam is a half to Grade 1-placed runner Holiday Soiree; #5 CAPTURE THE FLAG: Is bred very, very well and has worked consistently for Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey ahead of his debut. However, the fantastic pedigree also says he probably wants turf, so there’s a chance this is a tightener for another race down the line.

C’Est Magnifique
Deccan Prince
Montepulciano

#6 C’EST MAGNIFIQUE: Looks like another well-meant first-time starter from the Chad Brown barn and will likely be bet accordingly. This son of Kitten’s Joy is out of a Grade 3-placed mare, one who’s kin to multiple stakes-winner Royal Son; #8 DECCAN PRINCE: Debuted with an OK third in a turf sprint downstate and stretches out at second asking. Blinkers go on, he’s posted a recent bullet drill, and the pedigree says the added distance shouldn’t be a problem; #7 MONTEPULCIANO: Hammered for $210,000 last September at Keeneland and debuts for Todd Pletcher. The recent seven-furlong drill over the Oklahoma turf course is noteworthy, as is the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., who landed here when he likely had a few options.

Wolfe County
Endowed
Bold Victory

#9 WOLFE COUNTY: Has run well twice since moving to the Ken McPeek barn and broke his maiden going a bit longer last time out. Prior to that, he just missed by a head behind one who came back to win again, and I think he’s turned a corner and sitting on another nice outing; #8 ENDOWED: Has stepped forward with every start and was second last time out in his first try against winners. This is his first two-turn try, but this son of Belmont winner Tonalist may still have room to improve in just his fourth career outing; #7 BOLD VICTORY: Has won twice this season and returns to a two-turn route of ground for this one. He’s performed well over such configurations in the past, even running fourth in a $400,000 stakes race back in 2020.

Doozy Batz (MTO)
Devilly
Diamant Damhsa

#8 DEVILLY: Is probably in a “now or never” situation, going back to the maiden claiming ranks in search of her first career win in her 11th career outing. She’s been competitive against better groups and looms large on speed figures, though, and she seems like the class of this bunch; #5 DIAMANT DAMHSA: Enjoyed a perfect trip when third going seven furlongs downstate and cuts back a bit for this event. She’s got the early speed to be prominent early, and perhaps she’s getting better with experience for one of the top trainers in the game; #11 SPARKLING WATER: Gets back to the turf for the first time since her debut and merits a look at a bonkers price. She’s by Get Stormy, out of a War Front mare, and boasts a 354 turf Tomlinson rating, the second-best such number in the field.

Bank On Shea
Amundson
Big Bobby

#1 BANK ON SHEA: Has won several stakes races and gets a bit of class relief in this optional claiming event. His prior connections saw fit to try the Grade 1 Carter earlier in the year, and a return to that early-2022 form would make him the one to beat, even from a tricky inside post; #4 AMUNDSON: Won here a season ago and would certainly move forward on a wet track. However, that’s not a requirement for him to run well. He exits several strong races for the level, and he could sit an ideal stalking trip; #7 BIG BOBBY: Has every right to improve second off a long layoff, and his 2021 form was quite strong. That season included a pair of second-place finishes over this track, and his record looks far better if you toss the races directly before and after the five-month break.

Marvelous Maude
Blissful
Wicked Groove

#1 MARVELOUS MAUDE: Has never finished out of the money in seven career starts and makes a lot of sense here. Her last-out score against state-breds at Belmont was sharp, and while this is probably a tougher group, she should have plenty of pace to run at; #5 BLISSFUL: Faced a tall task in her first try off a long layoff and had too much to do in a race without much early zip. Still, she was beaten less than two lengths in a stakes race, and she looked good when winning here at first asking last summer; #6 WICKED GROOVE: Goes to the Rob Atras barn second off the layoff, and it’s intriguing to see Flavien Prat aboard. She’s run very well going two turns on turf, and her eight turf starts include four wins and seven top-three finishes.

Tommy Gun (MTO)
Mister Chairman
Built to Last

#5 MISTER CHAIRMAN: Was a fast-closing second in his debut, which came against maiden claimers. This barn protects him here, though, and with the amount of speed horses signed on, this late-runner stands to benefit from the likely race shape; #1 BUILT TO LAST: Was clear by three lengths in mid-stretch last time out before finishing third behind a next-out winner. The cutback in distance could suit him, and he has the early speed to make the rail draw an asset; #4 FEATHERS ROAD: Has been a consistent check-getter at this level and figures to take plenty of betting money. However, he’s got a history of finding trouble, and it’s tough for me to endorse those runners at short prices. Given his likely odds, I’ll try to beat him.

Jackie’s Warrior
Willy Boi
Ny Traffic

#4 JACKIE’S WARRIOR: Has done plenty to earn the mantle of America’s top sprinter and looms large in the Grade 1 A.G. Vanderbilt. Four of his 11 wins have come here at Saratoga, including a huge one over Life Is Good in last year’s Grade 1 Allen Jerkens. Anything close to his best would make for quite a show here; #2 WILLY BOI: Is 3-for-3 since a trainer switch, and one of those wins was a score in the Grade 3 Smile Sprint at Gulfstream Park. It’s possible he’s a “horse for the course,” but if his form travels north with him, he could rally for a piece of it; #3 NY TRAFFIC: Comes in off of a pair of scores in listed stakes races, and his lone loss this season came to Speaker’s Corner in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Mile. His local works are sharp, and he’s certainly found life as a sprinter after contesting Triple Crown races in 2020.

Epicenter
Early Voting
Zandon

#2 EPICENTER: Did everything but win the Kentucky Derby and rallied for second in the Preakness despite a slow start. This short field should provide no such obstacles. I expect him to sit his preferred trip, and I think that journey will make him tough in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy; #4 EARLY VOTING: Got the trip in the Preakness and had enough left late to hold off Epicenter, which isn’t easy to do. His lone loss to date came to eventual Belmont winner Mo Donegal in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial, and further improvement could allow him to keep rolling; #5 ZANDON: Won the Grade 1 Blue Grass and looked like a possible winner turning for home in the Derby. However, he never got past Epicenter, and while he’s a definite Travers contender later in the season, I’m concerned he won’t get the pace he may want here given the short field and lack of early zip.

R10

Capensis
Three Jokers (MTO)
Ricochet

#12 CAPENSIS: Hammered for $2 million in 2020 and looked every bit of that price when he stormed home clear by five lengths in his debut earlier this month. This is his first try against winners, and the post position isn’t ideal, but there’s reason to believe he’s simply a freak and much better than this bunch; #8 RICOCHET: Does his best running around two turns and came home a winner downstate against starter allowance company. Mike Maker’s barn is doing very well to this point in the meet, and this one’s versatility should give Luis Saez some options; #10 COLOSSEO: Makes his American debut and gets Lasix for the first time, which is always a notable angle. He got very good last season, when he was second behind the ultra-talented St. Mark’s Basilica in one Group 1 race and chased eventual Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Space Blues home in another.

R11

Big Agenda
Monarchs Glen
Jack the Cat

#3 BIG AGENDA: Has won twice this year, including a two-back event at this level downstate, and earns a tepid nod in a wide-open turf race. He’s won seven times in 33 races, with 20 in-the-money finishes, and he’s a consistent sort that always seems to run the same race; #16 MONARCHS GLEN: Needs a lot of luck to run here but is a must-use if he does. He hasn’t won in quite a while, but most of his races have come against far classier opponents, and that may be enough to carry him through despite a very wide post; #7 JACK THE CAT: Has proven to be very sharp at this level and goes first off the claim for a barn that excels with new acquisitions. The rider switch to Joel Rosario is a big one, and the faster they go early, the better this one’s chances figure to be.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/29/22)

Posted on July 27, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $828.20

I’m a proud voter for the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame, and I’m always happy to spread the word about fun events happening at that establishment. One of those is coming up on Monday, when Amplify Horse Racing and Together for Racing International team up to host an educational symposium.

It’s a free event kicking off at 5:30 pm. If you go, you can expect to learn a lot about opportunities within the racing industry and how horse racing and the Saratoga Springs community can work together for the benefit of all involved. If I still lived in the area, I’d be there!

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: In this section, it was a day of body blows. Boldish scratching ruined my entire rationale for these wagers, and while my top pick in that race won, running second in the surrounding races meant $32 in wagers went up in smoke.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fifth, where bigger prices make up my entire top three. I’ll box #3 STREAMING TAP, #4 MAD MAGIC, and #7 SEBARAY in $2 exactas, and I’ll use all three in $3 doubles that finish with #7 ACOUSTIC AVE and #10 BOBBY THE TANK in the sixth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Creative Minister, Race 7
Longshot: Sebaray, Race 5

Golden Alchemist
Sidekick
Southern Flag

#2 GOLDEN ALCHEMIST: Debuted with a decent second downstate and stretches out to two turns at second asking. His pedigree says he’ll fit this trip, and Flavien Prat winds up here when he had at least one other option; #5 SIDEKICK: Improved in his second start when second going a mile at Belmont. This is his first time going two turns, as well, and his recent drills over the Oklahoma track indicate he’s thriving at the Spa; #7 SOUTHERN FLAG: Almost certainly needed his last-out effort, which doubled as his first start in nearly a year. His 2021 form wasn’t bad, and it’s logical to expect a step forward second off the bench.

Media Sensation
Lookin Grand
Sell Something

#5 MEDIA SENSATION: Gets back to facing state-bred competition after running a close-up second a few weeks ago at Belmont despite jockey Manny Franco losing an iron at the break. This doesn’t hit me as the strongest race for the level, and Franco sees fit to ride back; #7 LOOKIN GRAND: Made a big middle move last time in his first start at this level. That was a strangely-run race, and this one is lightly-raced enough to where further improvement could still be in the cards; #4 SELL SOMETHING: Has a tendency to find trouble that’s…well, troubling, but his last-out effort was his first turf route, and it was easily his best race yet. Perhaps he’s doing what he wants to do, and that could make him dangerous at a price.

Fingal’s Cave
Insignia
Spiked

#3 FINGAL’S CAVE: Has done absolutely nothing wrong in two career starts, with a pair of wins by a combined margin of 17 1/2 lengths. This is her first try going two turns, but her route-heavy pedigree indicates that won’t be a problem, and the local drills are very sharp; #7 INSIGNIA: Benefited from a race that fell apart last time out at Churchill Downs and tries winners for the first time. Brad Cox’s horses are almost always live, and if nothing else, we know the two-turn route won’t be what gets her beat; #6 SPIKED: Won her first start on this circuit despite dueling throughout, which is far from an easy thing to do. This isn’t an easy spot for the level, and there are pedigree questions as far as this route is concerned, but the grit she’s shown is a real plus.

Tellaperfecttale (MTO)
Happy Hill Lil
Laoban’s Legacy

#11 HAPPY HILL LIL: Draws an absolutely terrible post but seems likely to get an ideal setup in front of her. She’s a closer in a turf sprint with plenty of early speed, and she sports a win at this route of ground from the 12-hole, so we know this is something she can do; #5 LAOBAN’S LEGACY: Makes her first career start on turf but has a pedigree that says she might like it. Her dam is kin to Grade 2-winning turfer Storm Mesa, and the recent turf drills over the Oklahoma track jump off the page. At her likely price, she hits me as a must-use; #4 BLAME IT ON MARY: Hasn’t won in quite a while but has been competitive at this level of late. Most recently, she was second against similar downstate, and she could sit an ideal stalking trip that gives her first run turning for home.

Sebaray
Mad Magic
Streaming Tap

#7 SEBARAY: Has a pedigree crying out for turf, and he finally gets it here. He’s a half to a pair of graded stakes-caliber turf runners, and his first start for Ray Handal was easily the best race of his career. Further improvement gives this gelding a big shot at a big price; #4 MAD MAGIC: Goes first off the claim for Ian Wilkes, who doesn’t claim many horses, and is another trying a new surface he should handle with aplomb. His dam is kin to Grade 1-placed turf runner Globetrotter and stakes-winning turf sprinter Slew’s Exchange. Turf was clearly the plan, and he’s worth using; #3 STREAMING TAP: Stretches out to two turns in his second start off of a brief freshening. He’s run decent races going long in the past, this barn is white-hot at the moment, and he’s another that will be a big price in a race with several favorites that hit me as vulnerable ones.

Acoustic Ave
Bobby the Tank
With Know Name

#7 ACOUSTIC AVE: Hammered for $200,000 earlier this year and comes in off a pair of very fast half-mile works. Offspring of Maclean’s Music tend to be precocious, the draw in the outer half of the field should help, and I think there’s plenty of potential here; #10 BOBBY THE TANK: Has been working steadily here for Chad Brown following a $65,000 purchase earlier this year. A few of those drills stack up favorably with others in this field, and anything this barn sends out is worth a long look; #2 WITH KNOW NAME: Debuts for Mike Maker, whose outfit is firing on all cylinders this summer. Maker’s not known for success with debuting runners, but several works hint at some talent and this one has precocity on both sides of his pedigree.

Creative Minister
Be Better
Artorius

#7 CREATIVE MINISTER: Was third in the Grade 1 Preakness before running a one-paced fifth in the Grade 1 Belmont, and it’s a long distance between the likes of Mo Donegal and Early Voting and this bunch. I think he’d have stood a chance in the Jim Dandy this weekend, and that his usual race would make him an extremely formidable chalk in the Curlin; #8 BE BETTER: Has moved forward in every start and is 2-for-2 this season at Monmouth Park. Todd Pletcher brings him up from New Jersey for this event, and he’s enlisted Luis Saez to ride; #9 ARTORIUS: Jumps up in class after topping a field of maidens downstate. This son of Arrogate and Paulassilverlining can’t be bred much better, and he’s got some gaudy speed figures, but he’s got something to prove in his first start against winners and first time going two turns.

Mexican Wonder Boy (MTO)
Fauci
Xy Speed

#4 FAUCI: Is one of many in here that hasn’t won in a while, but he’s been tackling some very stiff competition. Most recently, he was second behind the ultra-consistent Artemus Citylimits, and he was a close second to Arrest Me Red in a minor stakes race at this route last summer; #2 XY SPEED: Was beaten two lengths in a minor stakes race last time out, and his only non-stakes outing to this point in 2022 doubles as his lone win of the year. This is another closer getting some class relief, and he’ll likely be a square price; #6 DANCING BUCK: Sat a picture-perfect trip to win a seven-furlong event last time out, and he cuts back in distance here while rising up the class ladder. It helps that he’s shown some versatility, and the continued presence of Joel Rosario doesn’t hurt, either.

On the Hill
Baltasar
Dark Timber

#5 ON THE HILL: Hasn’t finished outside the top two yet this season and gets a monstrous rider switch to Luis Saez for this event. In each of his last two starts, he’s run second while well clear of the third-place finisher. He may not have to move forward at all to win this, and I think he could run a career-best race; #9 BALTASAR: Cuts back a bit after being reeled in last time out. Manny Franco knows this gelding well, having ridden him in all four 2022 outings, and he has the early speed to be prominent from a very early juncture; #7 DARK TIMBER: Hasn’t won since March of 2021, but his two-back effort at Churchill was sharp and his last-out turf try is a complete throw-out. He’s been competitive at this level and is doing what he wants, which may make the 12-1 morning line price an overlay.

R10

Maybe Later (MTO)
Stella Mars
More Mango

#6 STELLA MARS: Stretches out to two turns and ran OK in her lone prior two-turn turf try last November at Aqueduct. She generally runs the same race every time out, and such an effort would put her right there in a wide-open finale; #5 MORE MANGO: Has run well going long on turf multiple times, and this smaller barn has landed Luis Saez here. She sports a win at a similar route from the 2020 season, and it’s not illogical to think the new pilot may get the best effort out of her; #12 MIA AT MIDNIGHT: Draws a terrible post in her local debut but ran a pair of decent races at Santa Anita earlier this year. Peter Walder can win with new acquisitions, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride, which indicates this invader may have a chance in a puzzling Friday nightcap.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/28/22)

Posted on July 26, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $860.20

Friday’s Curlin Stakes attracted a field of nine 3-year-olds. It’s a fun race, which is why I don’t like pointing out the benefits to changing it.

By contrast to the Curlin, Saturday’s Grade 2 Jim Dandy, the local prep for the Travers, is set to attract a significantly smaller group. Even with the presence of Epicenter, Early Voting, and Zandon, Creative Minister, the 2-1 favorite for the Curlin, would take some money in the bigger event. I want big fields in big races, and the Curlin doesn’t help with that.

My solution: How about we move the Curlin to Travers Day? I’d rather lose 30-1 shots from that race than lose 8-1 shots from the Jim Dandy. Small fields aren’t what anyone wants, and this fix would maximize an important race while also keeping the Curlin on the calendar.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Disarmed had an absolutely terrible trip in the third, and it was pretty miraculous that he even salvaged a fourth-place finish. Lots of betting money went up in smoke, my $30 included.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the early part of the card and take a stand against the favorite in the third race. #3 BOLDISH hits me as vulnerable, and I prefer both #5 QUICK RETURN and #6 SARATOGA PAL. I’ll use those two in $2 doubles starting in the second with #3 SOUFFLE, #6 SNOWY EVENING, and #7 SHOWEMYOURHEELS, and in $2 doubles ending in the fourth with #6 OCEAN’S RESERVE and #8 DEVIL BOY. Finally, I’ll play a $1 Pick Three starting in the second that uses all of these runners.

TOTAL WAGERED: $32.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Inventing, Race 1
Longshot: Lord Gatling, Race 10

Inventing
Forever After All
Aunt Naughty

#4 INVENTING: Tries two turns for the first time after trailing a short field in the Grade 1 Acorn. Prior to that effort, she was second against solid groups, and her pedigree says she’ll take to two turns like a duck to water in the Thursday opener; #2 FOREVER AFTER ALL: Stepped forward when second at second asking going longer at Churchill Downs. She was 40-1 that day, and we won’t get anywhere close to that price here, as that 82 Beyer Speed Figure is tied for the best last-out number in the field; #5 AUNT NAUGHTY: Gets back to two turns after a pair of one-turn mile events downstate. She’s another bred for this route, and an effort similar to her runs elsewhere on the circuit would likely get her a piece of this one.

Souffle
Snowy Evening
Showemyourheels

#3 SOUFFLE: Is out of a stakes-winning turf sprinter who has already thrown Derrynane, another stakes-winning turf sprinter. She’s been working very well for Christophe Clement, and first-call rider Joel Rosario will be aboard; #6 SNOWY EVENING: Debuted with a strong second at Belmont and was nearly four lengths clear of that day’s third-place finisher. She was close to a pretty slow pace that day and may need to improve here, but her experience edge over many of these isn’t a small advantage; #7 SHOWEMYOURHEELS: Hammered for $350,000 at auction last summer and is out of a mare that won stakes races on dirt and turf. She’s worked well and should be forwardly-placed beneath aggressive gate rider Kendrick Carmouche.

Quick Return
Saratoga Pal
Boldish

#5 QUICK RETURN: Drops to the bottom first off the claim for a small barn that’s pretty strong with new acquisitions. His two local sprints last summer were pretty sharp, and these shallower waters should be to his liking; #6 SARATOGA PAL: May have needed his return off of a four-month layoff and returns to a track where he’s won twice in three tries. Perhaps he’s over the top as a 5-year-old, but anything close to his form from last summer and fall would give him a big shot; #3 BOLDISH: Returns off a six-month break and drops way down in class. Perhaps he’s just better than this bunch, but this barn struggles with horses coming off of long breaks. At his likely price, I’ll try to beat him.

Ocean’s Reserve
Devil Boy
Sinful Dancer

#6 OCEAN’S RESERVE: Has just missed twice in a row at this level and seems like the one to beat here. He’s fairly lightly-raced and may have more room to improve here in what’s just his fifth lifetime start; #8 DEVIL BOY: Has had some gate issues but draws an outside post that could make it easier for him to break cleanly. Toss his two-back clunker off the long break, and the record of this Jeremiah Englehart trainee looks far better; #2 SINFUL DANCER: Has had a bunch of chances and may simply be a pack animal at this point, but the addition of blinkers could wake him up. George Weaver excels with this move, and he’s earned speed figures in the past that would make him competitive here.

Fearless
Lone Rock
Portos

#1 FEARLESS: Stretched out with aplomb to win the Grade 2 Brooklyn on the Belmont Stakes Day undercard. He’s yet to finish out of the top two in five starts this season, and two of those outings were losses to top miler Speaker’s Corner; #2 LONE ROCK: Won this race a season ago and has accomplished a lot running at marathon distances. He didn’t break well in the Brooklyn and settled for third that day. Perhaps a smoother start will give him a chance to turn the tables; #4 PORTOS: Ran fourth in the Brooklyn behind my top two. He hasn’t won in a while, but he’s run reasonably well going long and someone has to run third in here.

Afilada (MTO)
Birthday Time
Brisky Frolic

#3 BIRTHDAY TIME: Rated in an event without much early speed last time out and should benefit from a return to a two-turn route of ground. This seems like a significantly weaker group, and the drop in class doesn’t bother me given the aggressive connections; #13 BRISKY FROLIC: Needs a few scratches to run but merits a long look if she draws in off the also-eligible list. Her races going two turns against straight maidens are fine, and the last-out race was probably far shorter than she wanted to run; #8 ROUNDABOUT: Is worth closer examination at a big price. Her two-back effort going six furlongs wasn’t bad, and John Terranova’s numbers with horses adding blinkers are very good. At a minimum, expect her to be prominent early.

Ring of Fire
Legends Can’t Die
Bustin Shout

#3 RING OF FIRE: Has three wins and two seconds from six turf sprints, and his consistency earns him a tepid nod in a wide-open event. This is his third start off of a long layoff, and Luis Saez lands here when he probably had a few options; #5 LEGENDS CAN’T DIE: Rallied to win his debut by a head downstate and tries winners for the first time. George Weaver’s firsters sometimes need a race or two to get going, but this one tipped his hand with several strong drills, so there’s clearly some talent here; #4 BUSTIN SHOUT: Has run well here in the past and figures to be prominent early. His two-back win at Aqueduct was pretty sharp, and maybe he needed his last-out effort off a bit of a break.

Price Discipline
Windylea entry
Mr Breadwinner

#4 PRICE DISCIPLINE: Broke his maiden easily two starts ago and just missed in his first try against winners. Blinkers go on for his first two-turn endeavor, and any sort of move forward would make him a formidable favorite; WINDYLEA ENTRY: I prefer #1 DANGEROUS EDGE, who’s won two in a row and has progressed significantly since being claimed by Rob Atras in April. This is a tougher group than the ones he’s beaten downstate, but further improvement isn’t out of the question; #7 MR BREADWINNER: Comes back to dirt after two failed turf tries and should love this distance. He’s by Tonalist, out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, and won his last dirt start at Aqueduct.

Kantarmaci entry (MTO)
Balthus
Mud Pie

#5 BALTHUS: Has clearly figured things out in his last two starts, both runaway wins going long on the lawn at Belmont. When Chad Brown gets horses on the right track, they tend to stay there, and he could have a very, very nice prospect on his hands; #3 MUD PIE: Makes his second start off the bench here, and does so in his first try as a gelding. He was a consistent turf marathoner before the ultimate equipment change, and the faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be; #6 OFFLEE NAUGHTY: Is worth consideration in vertical exotics as a longshot threat. He was an okay fourth in the Grade 3 San Luis Rey at Santa Anita, and he adds blinkers for an astute barn that doesn’t run many horses in New York.

R10

Storm Shooter (MTO)
Sandrone
Lord Gatling

#11 SANDRONE: Runs for a tag for the first time and attracts Luis Saez in a confusing Thursday finale. The post position is a challenge, but there’s also a chance he’s just plain faster than these horses, and that he can clear and save ground going into the turn; #7 LORD GATLING: Makes his first start on turf and is bred to love it. He’s by Noble Mission, out of a Dubai Millennium mare, and exits a winning effort in the mud at Belmont; #2 COUSIN ANDREW: Hasn’t won in a while but has shown a closing kick that could prove helpful in a race that seems to have some early zip signed on. His two-back effort against similar foes was okay, and that day’s pilot sees fit to ride back.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/27/22)

Posted on July 25, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $890.20

Sunday’s card featured a no-win situation. The seventh race was rightfully ruled a no-contest after a bizarre sequence of events. Pick Four players were briefly left to wonder what was going on until the New York Racing Association made an official announcement that all tickets would be refunded.

Much like with the “make a race an ‘all’” Pick Five situation in the first week of the meet, NYRA made the correct call, albeit a bit later than most handicappers would’ve preferred. In both instances, I wouldn’t have minded a delay of the next race while the matter in question was fully sorted out. Waiting 10 or 15 minutes wouldn’t have hurt anyone, and it would’ve given bettors opportunities to re-evaluate sequences and bet accordingly.

These two instances are freak occurrences, though, and I won’t judge anyone for being thrown off by them. Hopefully, we can return to some semblance of normalcy over the last three-quarters of the meet.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Key of Life was one of several top picks of mine that scratched. As a result, all of my action was called off.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I cannot get past #2 DISARMED in the third, and I’ll wager in hopes of extracting some value. In addition to a $20 win bet on that runner, I’ll single him to finish off $5 doubles that start in the second with #4 DAILY BRIEFING and #6 BIG TONY’S GIRL. If we can beat the even-money chalk in the first leg, those doubles may pay pretty well.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Disarmed, Race 3
Longshot: Alice Kramden, Race 6

Ancient Times
Welshman
Bee Major

#1 ANCIENT TIMES: Has proven tough when left alone on the lead, both over fences and on the flat. This is his first steeplechase start against winners, but his early speed should be an asset, and I think he can wire this bunch; #8 WELSHMAN: Was perhaps wheeled back a bit quickly after his maiden-breaking score in April. However, Hall of Fame horseman Jack Fisher has rested him up for this one, and I expect him to be prominent from an early stage; #3 BEE MAJOR: Was pulled up last time out but prevailed two back. In his flat racing days, he definitely preferred firmer surfaces, and perhaps the soft going had something to do with his last-out clunker.

Daily Briefing
Big Tony’s Girl
Knot Anymore

#4 DAILY BRIEFING: Has a record that looks very solid if you solely focus on her dirt sprints. She was third last time in a race where she was probably a bit too far back early on. I expect her to be up closer here, and her usual effort would give her a big chance; #6 BIG TONY’S GIRL: Cuts back from seven furlongs to six and may benefit from drier going in this spot. Her lone start over a fast track this season was also her lone win of the year, and she bested my top pick two back downstate; #1 KNOT ANYMORE: Is an even-money favorite and may simply be too much in her first start for a tag, but I have my doubts. It’s not like she was running against world-beaters at Charles Town, and her races at Laurel, while OK, were a cut below her efforts over the West Virginia bullring. At her likely price, I’ll try to beat her.

Disarmed
Noble Huntsman
General Banker

#2 DISARMED: Hammered for $165,000 at auction last summer and has trained forwardly ahead of his debut. The recent four-furlong gate drill was a real head-turner, and there’s plenty of class in his pedigree, as dam Saravati is kin to multiple Grade 1 heroine You; #5 NOBLE HUNTSMAN: Is one of many debuting for barns whose horses tend to need a race or two to get going. However, his dam won her debut sprinting on turf and is a half-sister to stakes-winner Carameaway, so this son of Noble Mission has a right to be a runner; #3 GENERAL BANKER: Is a full sibling to a four-time winner and is bred up and down to be a sharp turf sprinter. The lack of precocity from this barn is a red flag, but he boasts a few solid drills and figures to be a big price.

Bella Sofia
Frank’s Rockette
Kimari

#2 BELLA SOFIA: Is 2-for-2 this season and looms large in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss. She won last year’s Grade 1 Test over this track, and her lone career misfire came over a Del Mar surface she may not have cared for last November; #1 FRANK’S ROCKETTE: Is as consistent as they come, with 19 top-three finishes in 21 lifetime outings. She hasn’t won in more than a year, but she ran my top pick to a nose in the Grade 3 Vagrancy and gets four pounds from that rival today; #4 KIMARI: Might be over the top as a 5-year-old mare, but boasts the right running style as this event’s lone closing-type. She was third in the Grade 1 Madison two back at Keeneland, a race she won in 2021, and a performance that turns back the clock would put her right there.

Hometown (MTO)
Mooney Love
Forwardly

#6 MOONEY LOVE: Makes his American debut after spending his career to date overseas. He cruised home in a minor stakes race in Germany last time out, and his prior connections ran him in a pair of Group 2 events last season. If his form made the trip with him across the Atlantic, look out; #2 FORWARDLY: Graduated last time out at Belmont and faces winners for the first time. He’s lightly-raced, so he may have further potential to improve, but the last-out second and third-place finishers have both come back to run mediocre races up here; #4 CURBSTONE: Gets back to the lawn after several starts over the main track at Churchill Downs. This race seems fairly light on early speed, and this front-runner’s best effort came going a mile and a quarter. He’ll likely be sent early on and lead them as long as he can.

Repole entry
Alice Kramden
Silver Skillet

#1 GAMBLING GIRL: Was 6/5 in her debut last month at Belmont and got a terrible trip. She checked hard going into the turn, got shuffled way back, was floated wide turning for home, and still ran fourth just a length behind the runner-up. A step forward and a less-eventful journey would make her formidable at second asking; #10 ALICE KRAMDEN: Hammered for $200,000 at auction last fall and gets a cushy outside post in her career debut. Her dam and second dam both won stakes races, and there are several works in this one’s tab that indicate she may have potential; #5 SILVER SKILLET: Sold for $260,000 across the street last summer and is training well ahead of her unveiling. Her dam was a stakes-winner that captured her debut, and first-call rider Joel Rosario will be aboard.

Mirth ’n Merriment
Hatari
Spooky Road

#5 MIRTH ’N MERRIMENT: Seems like the lone speed in this two-turn turf route, and those types are usually tough to bear. She topped older foes over Presque Isle’s synthetic course last time out and boasts a front-running win at Tampa Bay Downs earlier this season; #1 HATARI: Is one of two Mike Maker trainees in this field, and she gets the benefit of both a class drop and new jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. On figures, she fits, but will she get enough pace to run at?; #2 SPOOKY ROAD: May be the more forwardly-placed Maker runner, as she attracts both blinkers and aggressive gate rider Luis Saez. She goes second off the bench here and may have needed her comeback race at Belmont.

O’Gotten Girl
Unlock
Preposterous

#8 O’GOTTEN GIRL: Takes a massive drop in class for aggressive connections and figures to be prominent early. A return to her mid-2021 form second off the layoff would make her tough to beat, and this is by far the weakest bunch she’s ever run against; #9 UNLOCK: Merits a look coming back to dirt after stopping badly against starter allowance foes on turf. Her effort two back, though, was sharp, and Dylan Davis sticking with this one after the clunker hits me as a good sign; #5 PREPOSTEROUS: Cuts back to this six-furlong distance and runs for a tag for the first time. This barn excels with horses going from routes to sprints, and the recent four-furlong drill here indicates she’s taken to this surface well.

Misty Veil (MTO)
High Opinion
Evvie Jets

#1 HIGH OPINION: Gets some class relief after winning a listed stakes race at Parx last month. She ran well here twice a season ago, including when she ran second to the talented Viadera in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa; #7 EVVIE JETS: Gets back to a two-turn route of ground, which she’s proven she loves. She won a pretty fast race for the level downstate last time out, and her lone local start was a wire-to-wire win last summer; #5 MESSIDOR: Has plenty of back class and most recently ran fourth in the Perfect Sting a few weeks ago. On figures, she more than fits, but she also has a history of finding trouble and doesn’t seem like the easiest horse to ride.

R10

Course Runner
Aquila Moon
Dover Dreams

#4 COURSE RUNNER: Gets a tepid nod in a confusing Wednesday finale. Unlike several of her rivals, she has a recent race, having run fourth last month at Churchill for a barn whose first-time starters don’t usually win. She’s bred to be any kind and could take a significant step forward with experience; #11 AQUILA MOON: Showed speed first time out when fourth behind a pair of next-out winners. That was on Halloween of last year, so the layoff is a concern, but she’s trained consistently ahead of her return and draws well here; #8 DOVER DREAMS: Chased the likes of Nest and Goddess of Fire as a 2-year-old, so she has every right to improve with those fillies off competing at the highest level. She hasn’t run since September, but she gets Lasix for the first time and would be a pretty considerable overlay at anywhere close to the morning line price.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/24/22)

Posted on July 22, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $890.20

I’ve written these bankroll blurbs from strange places before, but this one may take the cake. I’m writing this one from my girlfriend’s best friend’s baby shower in Orange County, California. My role is to keep the soon-to-be father company and eat as much as humanly possible at Gus’s Barbecue in South Pasadena after the event is over.

Funny story: On the way down, my girlfriend leaned over and said she thought the air in the plane smelled horrible. Without missing a beat, I quipped, “don’t worry, I’m pretty sure they can crack a window or something once we get going.”

Predictably, while I found this wildly entertaining, she did not. She really IS a saint.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Scratches reduced my investment to just a single $9 Pick Five play, which went up in smoke when my first-race single lost as the favorite.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: Anything close to the 2-1 morning line price on #2 KEY OF LIFE in the sixth hits me as an overlay, so I’ll focus on that one. I’ll play a $20 win ticket on her, $5 exactas using her over #4 KALING and #7 RARIFY, and $5 doubles starting with her that end with #3 LOVE TANK and #10 TREASURED GEM in the seventh.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Key of Life, Race 6
Longshot: Drakon, Race 10

Wasabi Boy
Bat Flip
Faithful and True

#7 WASABI BOY: Has an experience edge over most of this group and may have bounced last time out after a strong debut. He ran into Forte in his unveiling, then didn’t make the lead at Monmouth. A repeat of his first-out performance would give him a big shot; #2 BAT FLIP: Debuts for Todd Pletcher and will take plenty of money solely based on that fact. This $350,000 son of Good Magic has a few five-furlong works on his slate, as well as a bullet gate drill over the Oklahoma track, and he could have the foundation to fire at first asking; #1 FAITHFUL AND TRUE: Draws the rail in his first start, which usually isn’t ideal. However, this $450,000 auction buy has been working very well at Keeneland and attracts Flavien Prat.

Once a Giant
Ampersand
Icon

#4 ONCE A GIANT: Takes a massive drop in class for August Dawn Farm, otherwise known as former Giants coach Bill Parcells. He hasn’t fired against starter allowance company, but anything close to his three-back score at Aqueduct would make him formidable against this bunch; #2 AMPERSAND: Ships up from Florida for trainer Phil Serpe, and on figures sure seems like the one to beat. However, that 0-for-14 mark over the last two years raises “pack animal” questions, ones that are fair to ask given his likely short price; #1 ICON: Ran reasonably well in his first start since November of 2020, when he was third against $20,000 claimers at Churchill. Robertino Diodoro excels with new acquisitions, and the recent four-furlong work here was very quick.

Power Agenda
Doctor Love
Taco Bean

#2 POWER AGENDA: Was pretty highly-regarded a season ago, when he debuted with a win and ran fifth in the Grade 1 Hopeful. He takes a massive drop here, but does so for aggressive connections that aren’t afraid to lose horses to other barns in pursuit of victories at the Spa; #4 DOCTOR LOVE: Continues dropping down after running fourth for a $50,000 tag last month at Churchill Downs. This level should be more to his liking, and he’s one of only a few closers in a race that seems heavy on early zip; #3 TACO BEAN: Hasn’t won in a while but goes first off the claim for Gustavo Rodriguez, who’s won a few races already at this stand. Jose Lezcano climbs aboard, and there’s every chance he moves up for his new connections.

Phantom Smoke
King Angelo
Call Me Harry

#6 PHANTOM SMOKE: Came back running off the bench when second in a fast race for the level downstate. He’s finished first or second in all but one of his career outings, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., riding back when he probably had options inspires confidence; #1 KING ANGELO: Broke his maiden at this route last summer and is another going second off the bench. He has the speed to establish position from his inside post, which is always handy in these turf sprints; #5 CALL ME HARRY: Has a sheet that looks miles better if you toss the races that aren’t turf sprints. Two of his three career wins have come here, and perhaps he’s ready to fire a big one at a price in the third start of his form cycle.

Malathaat
Clairiere
Exotic West

#3 MALATHAAT: Headlines a Grade 3 Shuvee field that’s light on numbers but heavy on quality. She just missed in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps downstate, but has never fired a bad shot and could be more involved early given the addition of blinkers; #4 CLAIRIERE: Nipped my top pick last time out while benefiting from an ideal pace scenario. This race shouldn’t melt down like that one did, but she’s another ultra-consistent filly that’s found her best form, and maybe she doesn’t need a perfect setup to win; #1 EXOTIC WEST: Was a distant second in the Grade 3 DuPont behind a freakish performance, and his cracked the exacta in each of the last six races she’s finished. This barn popped at a price in a stakes race already this summer, and while a win may be a bit too much to ask form, she may inherit the lead by default and hang on for a piece of it.

Key of Life
Rarify
Kaling

#2 KEY OF LIFE: Lost all chance at the start of her debut, where she was third as a 2/5 favorite. She’s had two very strong drills since coming to upstate New York, and I’m more than willing to give her another chance at second asking; #7 RARIFY: Fits the mold of the “fast Wesley Ward 2-year-old” to a tee. She sold for $750,000 at Keeneland last year, and this daughter of Justify has been working well enough to hint that she could, well, justify that price tag; #4 KALING: Makes her first start for the tag team of Todd Pletcher and Flavien Prat, and does so with a steady string of works downstate. She earned a bullet for her July 8th drill and can’t be ignored.

Love Tank
Treasured Gem
Idea Generation

#3 LOVE TANK: Stepped forward at second asking after a bad break in her debut. She was a close second after leading most of the way, and this barn excels with horses stretching out after a pair of sprint races. Add in Luis Saez and the 8-1 morning line, and I’m very intrigued; #10 TREASURED GEM: Needs to overcome a far outside post but certainly seems to be bred up and down for this route. This daughter of Medaglia d’Oro has a few very strong works on her sheet, and the Rosario/Clement duo merits respect, especially on the lawn; #5 IDEA GENERATION: Debuts for Chad Brown after being shipped over from the Tattersalls sale and will almost certainly go favored. However, the works are just okay, and while she’s bred to be any kind, it’s fair to ask questions of a horse that will take lots of money at the windows.

Kinetic Sky
Emerald Express
Swiftsure

#3 KINETIC SKY: Was 5-1 in a Grade 3 not long ago and drops in for a tag in his 2022 debut. However, that’s not a panicky drop. These connections win with droppers like this very often, he’s working well, and a return to his 2021 form would make him a tough favorite to beat; #4 EMERALD EXPRESS: Was claimed by Joe Sharp following a second-place finish at this level at Churchill. That was his second solid performance in a row at this level, and he’s shown enough flexibility to give Tyler Gaffalione plenty of options; #7 SWIFTSURE: Probably needed his return off a long break, where he faded to fourth behind a pretty fast horse. He showed enough class to be favored in last year’s Grade 3 Lexington, and the outside draw is certainly a plus.

Baba (MTO)
Osiria
Tuscan Queen

#1 OSIRIA: Led at every call to break her maiden and earned an 83 Beyer Speed Figure in doing so. She’s moved forward in every start, and while Belmont’s turf course can play kindly to early speed, she went pretty fast throughout in that event, and that day’s runner-up has since come back to win; #8 TUSCAN QUEEN: Likely needed her 2022 debut, which was her first race since December. She gets a positive rider switch to Jose Ortiz second off the bench, and she ran two solid races here a season ago; #6 CAIRONI: Merits a look underneath at a pretty big price. Her lone win came in her lone turf sprint, and perhaps she’d just been going too far ever since. It wouldn’t be shocking to see her clunk up for a share beneath Dylan Davis.

R10

Street Vendor
Drakon
Smoke and Heat

#7 STREET VENDOR: Just missed against maiden special weight foes at Monmouth and runs for a tag here. Luis Saez rides for Pletcher, and any improvement second off the long layoff could make this one-time $500,000 purchase the one to beat in the Sunday nightcap; #3 DRAKON: Was third downstate in his first start on turf, and many things indicate he’ll be prominent early in a race otherwise light on early zip. Blinkers go on, as does top gate rider Kendrick Carmouche, and this barn hits at a high enough percentage to where this one hits me as a must-use; #1 SMOKE AND HEAT: Drops in for a tag after a trio of OK showings against straight maidens. On figures, he fits, but it’s worth noting the first two finishers from his last race have both come back to run poorly at short prices.