Saratoga | Andrew Champagne

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/23/22)

Posted on July 21, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $899.20

In addition to Saturday’s big card at Saratoga, there’s also a huge day on tap at Monmouth Park. It’s Haskell Day, and the main event features a clash between Jack Christopher and Taiba. I sat in on PlayUSA’s Haskell preview show, which can be seen on the PlayUSA YouTube channel.

Dave Bontempo, Bill Gelman, and I were joined by morning line man Brad Thomas and Dallas Baker of BetMakers, and it was a blast. If you’re playing that race, you won’t want to miss it!

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: My Grand Slam tickets went up in smoke when my second-leg single was off the board. As such, I dropped $16.

SATURDAY’S PLAYS: This is an outstanding slate. My action starts in the opener with an early 50-cent Pick Five ticket that reads as follows: 7 with 6,7 with 3,6 with ALL with 5. I’ll also play an early 50-cent Pick Four starting in the second race that goes like this: 6 with 3,6 with 1,3,4,6,8,9 with 5.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Activist Investing, Race 1
Longshot: Prisoner, Race 8

Activist Investing
Coach Petro
Reckoning Force

#7 ACTIVIST INVESTING: Fetched $313,000 at the Tattersalls sale and has some of the best turf breeding of any horse on the grounds. His 451 turf Tomlinson rating is exceptional, he’s been working steadily for Chad Brown, and he looms large; #5 COACH PETRO: Debuts for Brad Cox, who’s enjoyed a stellar meet to this point, and is another with plenty of turf in his pedigree. His dam was a stakes-winner on the lawn, and this female family also threw Grade 2 turf winner Speaktomeofsummer; #9 RECKONING FORCE: Was third in his debut overseas and makes his first North American start for Joseph O’Brien. He’s got an experience edge over the first-time starters, and this dam’s two other foals to race are both winners.

Risk Profile (MTO)
Private Life
Brazillionaire

#6 PRIVATE LIFE: Ran too poorly to be true last time out in an off-the-turf event. He gets back to his preferred surface and drops in class, and anything close to his two-back win over starter allowance foes at Gulfstream would make him a tough customer; #7 BRAZILLIONAIRE: Capitalized on a perfect trip last time out with an easy four-length jaunt downstate, and his record looks far better if you focus on his sprint efforts. This isn’t an easy spot for the level, but he’s doing what he wants to do, and that matters; #2 ME ’N SAP: Drops back in for a tag on short rest after a start against higher-level competition last week. His win two back wasn’t bad, and David Donk’s horses are generally running pretty well to this point in the summer.

Jane Grey
Repealing
Bank On Anna

#3 JANE GREY: Had every right to need her first start since September of 2020, but ran a decent second behind an impressive winner. Bill Mott’s horses tend to improve second off the bench, and the presence of Luis Saez is intriguing; #6 REPEALING: Ran in probably the best maiden race of the season last year against champion Echo Zulu and stakes-winner Lady Scarlet, among others. She came back running with a win last month at Churchill Downs, and she goes against winners for the first time here; #1 BANK ON ANNA: Has won three of her last four starts against state-breds and tries open company here. She’s got some versatility and doesn’t necessarily need to be on the lead to run well, which could help her snag a piece of this at a price.

Mozay
Veronica Greene
Sixth Street

#1 MOZAY: Has been close on a number of occasions and draws favorably in this wide-open turf event. She just missed last time out, when she was involved in a three-way photo at Belmont, and she’s run well going two turns in the past; #6 VERONICA GREENE: Tries the turf for the first time and is bred to love it. Her two dirt outings have been a bit disappointing, but she continues to hint at talent in the mornings and Irad Ortiz, Jr., has been enticed to ride; #9 SIXTH STREET: Is a European export getting Lasix for the first time, which is always a notable angle. She’d been sprinting overseas and stretches out for a very capable barn, and this may not be the toughest race we see at this level this summer.

Secret Oath
Nest
Nostalgic

#5 SECRET OATH: Had a nightmare trip in the Grade 1 Preakness against boys, which came just two weeks after a smashing score in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. She’s been training forwardly for one of the best to ever condition a racehorse, and I think she’ll be tough in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks; #3 NEST: Wasn’t disgraced a bit when second behind stablemate Mo Donegal in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes going a mile and a half. She’s never missed the board in seven career starts and seems ready to fire again; #4 NOSTALGIC: Didn’t have a great trip in the Oaks, which came after a late-running score in the Grade 3 Gazelle at Aqueduct. She showed tactical speed in a few starts earlier this year, and I think she’s better than her last-out effort indicates.

Powerful
Full Moon Madness
Phelpsy

#5 POWERFUL: Gets a tepid nod in a puzzling 2-year-old maiden race that feels heavy on potential. This son of Nyquist hammered for $525,000 at auction, is out of a mare whose two prior foals to race are winners, and possesses a few eye-catching works for Steve Asmussen; #2 FULL MOON MADNESS: Debuts for Michelle Nevin, whose horses tend to need a race or two to get going, and the inside draw isn’t ideal. However, he’s out of multiple Grade 1 winner By the Moon, and his July 9th work at Belmont Park jumps off the page; #8 PHELPSY: Was a million-dollar baby at the Keeneland sale last September. This son of Into Mischief has an outstanding female family, with a dam that’s kin to multiple graded stakes-winner Private Mission. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because he may want longer than this six-furlong route of ground.

Tough Street
Writers Room
Quick Power Nap

#2 TOUGH STREET: Makes her 2022 debut off a long break, but adds Lasix for Chad Brown and finally gets to try turf. Broodmare sire Freud is an excellent grass influence, and her dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning turfer Jazzy Jessy; #8 WRITERS ROOM: Is one of several exiting the same maiden race on June 25th at Belmont and closed at first asking, which isn’t an easy thing to do. Linda Rice’s runners tend to improve at second asking, and a logical step forward gives her a big chance; #6 QUICK POWER NAP: Was second to a good horse in her debut at this route last summer, then went away for 11 months and came back to run third in the race my second choice exits. She figures to be prominent early for a barn whose horses always seem live.

Highly Respected
Prisoner
Favorite Outlaw

#7 HIGHLY RESPECTED: Cuts back to a sprint after getting nailed at the wire in back-to-back races downstate, one of which was the Grade 3 Bay Shore. He’s fired back-to-back bullet drills ahead of this allowance race, and the cushy outside draw is a big plus; #3 PRISONER: Ran a clunker last time out after starting his career with three consecutive wins. Two recent bullets hint that he’s come back to form for Charlton Baker, and repeats of the races he ran earlier this year at Aqueduct would give him a shot at a very square price; #4 FAVORITE OUTLAW: Has a win and two seconds from three lifetime starts and most recently ran second behind a runaway winner at Churchill Downs. He’s run races that would make him very competitive in this spot, and this lightly-raced colt may still have some room to improve.

Uncle Moonlight
Stage Raider
Rising Empire

#1 UNCLE MOONLIGHT: Capitalized on a “lone speed” situation last time out at Belmont and posted a 95 Beyer Speed Figure, easily a career-best. A similar scenario could present itself here, as this one sure looks like the main pace factor in his two-turn debut; #7 STAGE RAIDER: Is best known as Justify’s younger half-brother, but has run several strong figures and may simply be better than this group. However, he’s 0-for-3 this year, and while he was second behind the talented Highly Motivated last time out, he was probably supposed to win the two-back race. At his likely price, I’ll take a stand against him; #3 RISING EMPIRE: Ran a clunker last time out at Churchill Downs, but adds blinkers and has enough back form to suggest that was an outlier. Brendan Walsh got this one going pretty well earlier this year, and the last-out dud may mean we get an inflated price.

R10

Tobys Heart
Caravel
Star Devine

#5 TOBYS HEART: Could provide some value in a wide-open renewal of the Grade 3 Caress. She was beaten four lengths in the Grade 3 Intercontinental, but early speed held well in that race. This one is 4-for-4 at this distance, likes Saratoga, and should get plenty of pace to chase; #1 CARAVEL: Became the Intercontinental champion (first wrestling reference of the season!) last time out, and we’ve seen her run some sensational races. She can run well on the lead or sitting just off the pace, and it wouldn’t be stunning if she won this race for a second year in a row; #3 STAR DEVINE: Has run second twice in as many 2022 outings, but has chased quality fillies home and could have room to improve. She won a minor stakes race at this route last summer, and John Velazquez certainly knows her very well.

R11

Bold Victory
Catch That Party
Shinsun

#8 CATCH THAT PARTY: Rated behind a pretty slow early pace last time out, but still rallied and was beaten less than two lengths. He ran well here three times last summer, and it’s telling that aggressive connections protect him rather than drop into a softer spot; #7 SHINSUN: Carries an unusual pedigree and bucked a big trend when he won his debut for Barclay Tagg, who doesn’t usually have his first-time starters fully cranked. This gelding by Japanese Group 1 winner A Shin Forward, out of a German mare, could have some talent, and Luis Saez riding back is encouraging; #1 FRONT MAN: Exits the same race as my top pick and was beaten a length by that runner on that occasion. This one has won his lone local start to date, and a repeat of his two-back winning effort would give him a puncher’s chance at a price.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/22/22)

Posted on July 20, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $915.20

Another major track opens today, as the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club kicks off its summer meet. The venue, located just outside sunny San Diego, has recently worked its way into the Breeders’ Cup rotation, and the “Saratoga or Del Mar?” debates are often inescapable.

Here’s my take: One of those two tracks has helped me build my career. The other actively tried to destroy it before it really got started.

If you want the story, find me sometime. We’re coming up on the time where I can tell it publicly, but we’re not quite there yet.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: I scratched out of the Grand Slam (after extolling the virtues of that wager, ironically enough), and my late doubles were washed out when the finale was moved off the turf. Remember: All plays in this section assume races carded for the grass stay there.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll take another swing at the Grand Slam. My $4 ticket starting in the sixth reads as follows: 1,7 with 7 with 3,6 with 6. I’m hoping to extract some value out of #6 EMINENT VICTOR in the Lake George, and this may be a way to do that.

TOTAL WAGERED: $16.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Klaravich entry, Race 2
Longshot: Makart, Race 6

Rarify (MTO)
Wico
Appraise

#2 WICO: Had an eventful journey in his debut, when he missed the break, rushed up, led briefly in midstretch, and ran out of energy. Everything about that effort says he’ll move forward with experience, and such improvement gives him a big chance despite this turning up pretty strong; #6 APPRAISE: Fetched $256,000 at the Tattersalls sale and has every right to be a runner. Chad Brown’s had plenty of success here with debuting runners that possess European pedigree; #4 ALEXIS ZORBA: Makes his U.S. debut for Joseph O’Brien, who’s maintaining a small string here this summer. The intrigue may attract money, but Europe isn’t known for flashy 2-year-olds. Perhaps he’s good enough, but I need more value than I’m likely to get.

Klaravich entry
Happy Bob (MTO)
Oglethorpe

KLARAVICH ENTRY: Both #1 INDEMNIFY and #1A GLOBAL CAPITAL have big chances here. The former is another European-bred runner that could be any kind, and the latter has run well when second on three straight occasions; #6 OGLETHORPE: Is one of several exiting an off-the-turf event downstate. He closed late to be beaten just a half-length in his unveiling, and this barn’s runners tend to need a race or two to get going; #2 CLUBBING: Was fourth in the race Oglethorpe exits and has plenty of reason to improve here. He’s bred up and down for turf, being a full sibling to a Grade 3-placed grass horse, and the switch to a two-turn configuration should only help him.

Amount
Claytnthelionheart
Hammerin Aamer

#5 AMOUNT: Threw in a clunker last time and takes a big drop in class for this event. He won three in a row earlier this year, including two at this one-mile distance, and the shallower waters figure to make this Todd Pletcher trainee a formidable foe; #3 CLAYTNTHELIONHEART: Has finished in the money in five of six local starts, and three of those efforts have been winning ones. This is his third start off a long layoff, and a return to his mid-2021 form would make him intriguing; #2 HAMMERIN AAMER: Comes back to what’s probably the right level in his second start off the claim for Linda Rice. He’s been around a while and has run some strong races at this distance, but the 0-for-8 local mark is a significant concern.

Beachfront Bid
I’m Glad
Whiskey Lullaby

#8 BEACHFRONT BID: Has been competitive in six starts against maiden special weight foes and drops in for a tag for the first time. That’s a significant drop from an aggressive barn, and while the recent Monmouth works would normally be a concern, Brown’s horses coming from New Jersey have run well so far at this stand; #7 I’M GLAD: Probably bounced off of a solid debut when last of 10 as a 2-1 favorite at Belmont. This barn is another that doesn’t mess around and boasts very strong numbers going from maiden special weight races to maiden claiming events; #4 WHISKEY LULLABY: Improved at second asking when third at this level downstate. Top-tier turf rider Jose Lezcano climbs back aboard for this one, and she should be prominent early at a bit of a price.

Dubb entry
Our Country
Sonic Speed

DUBB ENTRY: I prefer #1 CHESS’S DREAM, who won the Grade 3 Kitten’s Joy in 2021 and hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since. However, he goes second off the bench, gets back to a two-turn route of ground, and attracts Jose Ortiz for this event; #6 OUR COUNTRY: Has been running against starter allowance company for most of this year, but his last start for a claiming tag was a win. Flavien Prat rides back after a one-paced fifth-place finish downstate, which hits me as a good sign; #9 SONIC SPEED: Has a record that looks far better if you only focus on two-turn turf races. Do that and you’re left with wins at Gulfstream and Aqueduct and an OK fourth at Laurel (remember, Belmont’s mile is a one-turn course). This is a high-percentage barn that wins lots of races, and he may be a bit of a price.

Ria’s Angel
Makart
Slow Decision

#1 RIA’S ANGEL: Showed improvement two back in his lone dirt route and comes back to the main track after a failed turf experiment. This race out of the Wilson chute is a perplexing one, but a repeat of that early-May effort would put him right there; #7 MAKART: Earned a career-best Beyer Speed Figure last time out in his second start off the bench, which doubled as his second start for this barn. He didn’t miss by much that day, and while there were no world-beaters in that field, this field doesn’t appear to be any great shakes, either; #4 SLOW DECISION: Faded to fifth in his debut on turf and goes to dirt here. He’s supposed to take money, and he probably will, but other than the connections, what inspires confidence, especially at his likely price?

Efficiency
Keepmeinmind
Naval Aviator

#7 EFFICIENCY: Romped by 11 lengths in an off-the-turf event to break his maiden last time out and makes his first start against winners here. Perhaps he’s just a mud freak, but offspring of Gun Runner have shown they can perform in any conditions, and the consistent work tab inspires some confidence; #1 KEEPMEINMIND: Danced a lot of dances a season ago, most notably running in two-thirds of the Triple Crown and finishing second in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy. If he’s ready and gets a perfect trip, he looms large, but he’s shown he finds trouble, and the rail is often a poor place to be for horses like that; #4 NAVAL AVIATOR: Stepped up in class last time out for trainer Joe Sharp and won with a 90 Beyer Speed Figure first off the claim. There’s plenty of early speed signed on, and it’s not illogical to think he’ll be going the right way late when others are tiring.

Kokopelli
Sassy Melissa
Makin My Move

#3 KOKOPELLI: Hasn’t been seen in more than a year but returns for patient connections that boast strong numbers with similar stock. This race seems very heavy on early speed, which could set up perfectly for Joel Rosario and this one-run closer; #6 SASSY MELISSA: Is another closer, and one that has a win and a second in two starts at this route. She was a fast-closing second last time out with a troubled trip, and smooth sailing would make her a major player here; #1 MAKIN MY MOVE: Interests me most of the early speed horses and could capitalize on the inside draw. She wired an OK field last time out, and that day’s runner-up came back to run second in a minor stakes race earlier this week.

Eminent Victor
Skims
Koala Princess

#6 EMINENT VICTOR: Hits me as the more logical of the two Chad Brown trainees in the Grade 3 Lake George. She came back running off a long break to take a stakes race at Belmont and should get plenty of pace to chase in this spot. Prat knows her well, and horse and rider should be flying late; #8 SKIMS: Hasn’t gotten a legitimate pace in either of her two graded stakes tries to date but should get one here. That alone is enough for me to consider this daughter of Frankel a threat, and the recent local bullet drill is also noteworthy; #4 KOALA PRINCESS: Was the betting favorite in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, where she was beaten less than three lengths. We haven’t seen her since, but this barn does very well with horses coming back from long breaks and her best effort would put her right there.

R10

Let Her Inspire U
Leeloo
Fancy Feline

#8 LET HER INSPIRE U: Hinted at some potential last year and came back running off the bench with an easy score last month at Belmont. She should be able to sit just off the pace and have first run turning for home, which would give her every chance at a second straight victory; #7 LEELOO: Hasn’t run since March, but returns for a new conditioner and comes in off of a very fast four-furlong gate work at Keeneland. She was favored in a stakes race over the winter and has every right to be a more-developed horse in her comeback race; #6 FANCY FELINE: Gets a big rider switch to Luis Saez and could get a lot of pace in front of her. Perhaps her best isn’t good enough to win, but as one of only a few closers in a race with lots of speed, she’s one I’d use underneath in vertical exotics to end the Friday program.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/21/22)

Posted on July 19, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $915.20

The Grand Slam is a wager that’s very, very useful in certain situations. If you like a horse in the payoff leg, it’s a way to extract value out of that runner. Additionally, it’s a cheap way for beginning or novice horseplayers to get some fun out of a longer wager, since one only needs to have a horse run third or better in the first three races to stay alive.

There are some days where it’s not as attractive of a bet. However, the Thursday program, headlined by what looks like a two-horse race in the Rick Violette, caters to it. My advice: Single one of those horses there, take some stances in earlier legs, and fire away.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: I was counting my money at the three-eighths pole of the eighth race, as Mischievous Diane looked set to swoop by the early pace-setters. However, she flattened out, and I dropped $19.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: My $3 Grand Slam ticket starting in the sixth reads as follows: 2 with 3,6 with 2,6 with 4. Additionally, because I like two prices in the Thursday finale, I’ll play $2 doubles starting with #3 COINAGE and #4 DAKOTA GOLD in the ninth and ending with #1 TELL ME WHEN and #7 STRUT in the nightcap.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Perceived, Race 2
Longshot: Tell Me When, Race 10

Up to the Mark
Drink the Wind
Frat Pack

#6 UP TO THE MARK: Has been training forwardly for Todd Pletcher ahead of his debut. He sold for $450,000 back in 2020, there’s plenty of class on both sides of his pedigree, and the cushy outside draw is a plus; #1 DRINK THE WIND: Cuts back in distance after running third going seven furlongs at Churchill Downs. Both of his races this year have been fine, and the local four-furlong move last week is encouraging; #2 FRAT PACK: Will get plenty of betting money as a first-time starter from Chad Brown’s barn, but I have some doubts. The long tenure at Monmouth with Brown’s second string is often a red flag, and while the works time out OK, I’ll need more value than I’m likely to get.

Perceived
Grumps Little Tots
Kumar

#5 PERCEIVED: Has won three of his last five starts, including a similar handicap race late in the Belmont meet. His late-running style should fit this race like a glove given an abundance of early speed elsewhere in the field, and when Rudy Rodriguez gets horses on the right track, they tend to stay there; #1 GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS: Was protected from the claim in his first start off the bench, and for good reason, as he rallied to win his 2022 debut. He’s run well up here in the past, and Joel Rosario sees fit to ride back for Charlton Baker; #2 KUMAR: Is another coming in off of a win, having won a photo finish against $20,000 claimers in early-June. Two turns has been a bit of a problem, but I like that he doesn’t need the lead to run well, and he could sit an ideal stalking trip.

Hometown (MTO)
Icarus
Cash in a Flash

#5 ICARUS: Takes a massive drop in class after being beaten three lengths against far tougher competition. That day’s runner-up came right back to win last week, and these connections aren’t shy about dropping way down in order to win; #3 CASH IN A FLASH: Ran too poorly to be true last time out over Gulfstream Park’s synthetic surface. This is actually his first start on the grass, and he may benefit from being the lone speed horse in this inner turf event; #6 ST. JOE LOUIS: Has been favored in every one of his nine career starts and has burned money in eight of them. He’s been odds-on in four starts this season with no luck and ships in from Monmouth for Chad Brown, which isn’t often a profitable move.

Run Poppy
Smart Prize
Clear the Deck

#1 RUN POPPY: Debuted running second at Churchill Downs and has a right to improve at second asking. Both of this dam’s foals to race are winners, and offspring of this sire tend to be precocious, too; #2 SMART PRIZE: Rallied to be third in his debut, where he didn’t break well. Flavien Prat will be in the saddle, and if there’s hesitation here, it’s only because I think he really wants to go longer given his stamina-heavy pedigree; #6 CLEAR THE DECK: Has an experience edge over most of this field and has run third in both of those outings. The most recent work over the Oklahoma track was solid, and Ken McPeek trainees tend to move forward as they get older.

Aidanike
Domineer
Greatest Love

#2 AIDANIKE: Has won three of her last four and goes first off the claim in this event. The early pace should be solid, and she’s shown she’s very tough with the stalking trip she’s likely to get in her local debut; #5 DOMINEER: Represents the most likely pace presence and drops in class for a high-percentage barn. Stamina is definitely a question mark, but there’s also a chance she’s fast enough to clear out of the gate and get comfortable; #4 GREATEST LOVE: Drops in half after a $25,000 claim, and while that should help, this isn’t an easy race for the level and she hasn’t won since last September at Monmouth. She fits on speed figures, but her likely price hits me as an underlay.

Ee Yah
Jeremy’s Jet
Three Zero

#2 EE YAH: Picked a tough spot to debut last month at Monmouth, when he ran into Great Navigator. That one ran second in the Grade 3 Sanford, the third-place finisher has come back to win, and this one seems to be facing a lesser group here; #8 JEREMY’S JET: Ships in from Churchill Downs, where he’s already run four times in two months. That experience could prove valuable, and he’s shown some early zip in Kentucky against some decent groups; #7 THREE ZERO: Has improved with every start, including a third-place finish in a rich race at Churchill late last month. His lone local drill was a strong one, and another step forward would give him a shot at a bit of a price.

Big Package
Maxwell Esquire
Artemus Citylimits

#6 BIG PACKAGE: Is a stone closer in a turf sprint that seems full of early speed. He’s 2-for-3 with a second over this turf course, has every right to fire a big shot third off the bench, and retains Jose Ortiz when he probably had several options; #3 MAXWELL ESQUIRE: Is another closer to watch, and while he needs a lot to go right, that scenario could easily materialize. His lone poor run here came against a very strong field in a stakes race late in the meet, and Mike Maker excels with high-priced claiming horses like this one; #5 ARTEMUS CITYLIMITS: Is a hard-knocking, hard-trying gelding with 18 top-three finishes in 19 lifetime starts. He’s shown an ability to be effective sitting just off the pace, and that could prove helpful given some of the speedballs set to go postward.

Captainsdaughter
Reigning Chick
U Guys Are No Fun

#2 CAPTAINSDAUGHTER: Gets a tepid nod in what hit me as a puzzling race to handicap. She hasn’t won in a while, but her stretch of minor awards includes several stakes placings, and perhaps she’ll appreciate what looks like class relief; #6 REIGNING CHICK: Got some black type at this distance when third in the Busanda back in January. Her two efforts since then were clunkers, but a return to that form off a three-month break would give her a big chance; #1 U GUYS ARE NO FUN: Was a close-up second last time out at Finger Lakes and runs for a barn that has enjoyed great success both here and there. However, she has a history of slow starts, and while the distance gives her time to get settled, the rail draw is a legitimate concern.

Dakota Gold
Coinage
Timbuktu

#4 DAKOTA GOLD: Made his return a winning one downstate, when he captured a similar stakes race in his first try since November’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. He’s looked like a good horse since breaking his maiden here last summer, and I’m expecting a step forward second off the bench for Danny Gargan in the Rick Violette; #3 COINAGE: Was third in the Rick Violette last year when it was a sprint for 2-year-olds. Since then, he’s won a pair of stakes races going long on the turf, and this is a far cry from chasing Annapolis home on Independence Day; #5 TIMBUKTU: Has improved on figures with each start and broke his maiden in his lone prior try at this route. The return to two turns could clear the way for future improvement, and it’s not often we see a Brad Cox trainee at 8-1 in a stakes race.

R10

Tell Me When
Strut
American Rockette

#1 TELL ME WHEN: Is one of two prices I feel have big chances in the Thursday finale. She was a decent second in her debut and has a pedigree that screams turf. Her dam is kin to a stakes-winning turf sprinter, and the lofty 346 turf Tomlinson figure hints she’ll love the lawn; #7 STRUT: Debuts for a barn whose horses tend to need a race or two to get going. However, she comes in off of three straight bullets, and the dam’s three prior foals to run are all winners (including Grade 3-placed sprinter Chasing Time); #6 AMERICAN ROCKETTE: Is another bred in the purple debuting for a barn whose horses are known more for patience than precocity. She’s a half-sister to multiple graded stakes-winner Frank’s Rockette, and the works hint she’s got some talent.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/20/22)

Posted on July 18, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $934.20

I strongly recommend going to places that challenge you and make you feel small. It’s a surreal experience that’s tough to describe, but I’ll give it a shot.

Last summer, on the way to Mammoth Lakes for a wedding, my girlfriend and I stopped at Yosemite National Park. The winding roads through the mountains will help anyone looking for perspective find it (provided, of course, you also stay focused behind the wheel).

On Sunday, we went to Angel Island State Park. It’s California’s answer to Ellis Island, but with a significant history of its detainees being kept in suboptimal conditions while they awaited processing and entry into the United States (or, in some cases, deportation back to Asia). Chinese carvings in the walls reflect poems written by those who lived in those buildings, and they’re still visible 100 years later.

Put it this way: Bad beats at the racetrack feel awfully insignificant by comparison.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: I didn’t get rich in Sunday’s fifth race, but I turned a modest $18 post-scratch investment into $36.20. That exacta would’ve paid considerably better the other way, but it beats losing.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the eighth race, where #9 MISCHIEVOUS DIANE hits me as a formidable foe despite not being the likely favorite. In addition to a $10 win bet on that one, I’ll also key her in $3 exactas above #1 SHORT SUMMER DRESS/#1A PIECE OF MY HEART, #2 SMASH TICKET, and #8 MOVIE MOXY.

TOTAL WAGERED: $19.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Mariah’s Fortune, Race 2
Longshot: Darknstormy, Race 5

Pistol Whipped
Iranistan
Down Royal

#3 PISTOL WHIPPED: Has finished first or second in all but two of his starts since the beginning of 2021. Most recently, he was a distant second behind top steeplechaser Snap Decision in the Grade 1 Iroquois, and a similar effort would make him tough to top in the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick; #7 IRANISTAN: Did not finish the Iroquois but won two in a row prior to that, including a win over Snap Decision in a Grade 2. He won here twice two summers ago, and his best effort gives him a big chance; #2 DOWN ROYAL: Has won two minor stakes races in a row and figures to be prominent from the jump. This is a significant class test, but she’s done more than enough to merit a look in the first steeplechase race of the summer.

Mariah’s Fortune
Babyitsgoldoutside
Evoking

#4 MARIAH’S FORTUNE: Takes a big drop in class for this non-winners-of-two claiming event. It wasn’t long ago she was 13-1 in the Grade 3 Fantasy, but these are very aggressive connections and this is probably the weakest bunch she’s ever run against; #6 BABYITSGOLDOUTSIDE: Cuts back to a sprint for a savvy barn and merits a look at a price. She’s been competitive at this level in the past, and this outfit has already found the winner’s circle multiple times at this meet; #1 EVOKING: Cruised home in her debut last spring and went to the sidelines for nearly 14 months. She’s worked consistently ahead of her return, but the rail draw and the long break are both significant concerns, and she’s likely to take plenty of betting money.

Aunt Virginia
Izeamalibumoon
Gracefully Wild

#5 AUNT VIRGINIA: Nearly pulled off a 40-1 upset in her unveiling at Delaware Park. That day’s winner, Silvery Rill, can run a bit, and the transfer to a trainer hitting at a 35% clip with new acquisitions cannot be ignored; #7 IZEAMALIBUMOON: Raced greenly when third in her debut at Monmouth Park and completes a 1-2 punch for trainer Jose Camejo (who also saddles my top pick). She earned a 71 Beyer Speed Figure that day and may improve with experience; #8 GRACEFULLY WILD: Has run second three times in as many 2022 starts, including a pair of turf sprints. She’s shown she doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well, and she could sit a dream trip just off the pace.

Epona’s Dream (MTO)
Pure Bode
Out of Sight

#3 PURE BODE: Goes third off the bench and stretches back out to two turns, which should be to her benefit. Her win last year at this route was very solid, and top turf rider Jose Lezcano knows her very, very well; #1 OUT OF SIGHT: Has yet to run a bad race in 2022, a stretch that includes a pair of nice wins two and three back. Her last-out third at this level was fine, and the lone question mark is the two-turn route of ground; #6 INSTINCTIVE: Has shown an ability to rally from off the pace and should benefit from the likely race shape. The faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be, and she may be the one they have to hold off late.

U Glow Girl
Darknstormy
Callie’s Passion

#2 U GLOW GIRL: Debuts for Brad Cox after a very strong four-furlong gate drill at Keeneland. Her dam and second dam are both stakes winners, and young sire Girvin is off to a very strong start; #8 DARKNSTORMY: Debuts for Rudy Rodriguez, who doesn’t work his horses quickly. That can make his first-time starters tricky reads, but her dam was a stakes-placed sprinter and the daughter of stakes-winning sprinter Tangier Sound, so there’s plenty to like; #1 CALLIE’S PASSION: Is one of two in this field trained by Joe Sharp and comes in off of a five-furlong bullet work. The rail draw isn’t ideal for a debuting 2-year-old, but this half-sister to Grade 3 winner Scotus has every right to be a runner.

Happy Farm
Shadow Matter
Aristocratic

#6 HAPPY FARM: Is a really easy horse to root for, with 11 wins and 24 top-three finishes in 32 career starts. His last-out win has aged beautifully, as runner-up Three Two Zone came back to top a strong field Sunday. Add in he could be in the garden spot just off the pace early, and I think he looks very tough; #3 SHADOW MATTER: Hasn’t won in a while but drops to what’s probably the right level. He’s been facing much faster horses of late, and Luis Saez lands here when he probably had plenty of options; #5 ARISTOCRATIC: Has blazing early speed and goes first off the claim for a barn that hits at a 27% clip with new acquisitions. He may not be alone on the front end, but he’ll likely be the one they have to catch turning for home.

Hey There
Libretto
Mrs. Green

#3 HEY THERE: Just missed last time out downstate and looms large given her forward progression for a world-class barn. She showed more early zip than ever before last time out, which gives Flavien Prat plenty of options here; #9 LIBRETTO: Has been one-paced going longer and cuts back to a sprint for the first time. Joel Rosario rides and may drop back before coming with one run at a price; #6 MRS. GREEN: Was fourth in the race my top pick exits and makes her third career start here. She’s another that could sit back and come charging late, and there’s enough speed signed on to potentially make that trip a winning one.

Mischievous Diane
Smash Ticket
Movie Moxy

#9 MISCHIEVOUS DIANE: Came back running off the bench last time out, when she drubbed an overmatched allowance field and earned an 86 Beyer Speed Figure. She showed plenty in 2021 to hint this race wasn’t a fluke, and the outside post gives Dylan Davis plenty of options; #2 SMASH TICKET: Romped by 11 lengths last time out at Lone Star Park and has since joined the Rob Atras barn. She was third in last year’s Grade 2 Sorrento at Del Mar and may have enough talent and early zip to overcome a tricky inside draw; #8 MOVIE MOXY: Hasn’t run for 10 months but has been working steadily for George Weaver, who does well with similar stock. She was fourth in a pretty fast race for the level here last summer, and if she’s ready to run, a similar effort could get her a piece of this one.

Classic Lynne
Solib
She’s a Mia

#4 CLASSIC LYNNE: Scratched out of a race on Sunday in order to make her 2022 debut in the Suzie O’Cain. Her best race to date, by far, came in her only turf route. Running here hints at some confidence, and I think she’s ready to spring a mild upset; #1 SOLIB: Is the other Joe Sharp trainee in the field and could inherit the early lead by default. She just missed last time and was claimed out of that race. Inside speed has always been tough on this turf course; #5 SHE’S A MIA: Is a heavy morning line favorite, but I have my doubts. She’s run second twice downstate, and those efforts were fine, but hardly ones that tower over her competition. She wouldn’t be a gigantic shock if she won, but 7/5 hits me as a significant underlay.

R10

Super Quality
Wachtel entry
Blinding Light

#3 SUPER QUALITY: Responded to the drop in class last time out with the best effort of his young career. Since then, he’s fired a bullet drill over the Oklahoma track, and Saez will be back aboard in the Wednesday finale; WACHTEL ENTRY: I’m most intrigued by #1A PISTOL OR SHOTGUN, a colt bred up and down for the grass. His dam is a full sister to the dam of a Group 1 winner overseas, and it’s entirely possible he’s wanted the lawn all along; #6 BLINDING LIGHT: Is another entered by George Weaver, who also conditions my top pick. He was second against straight maidens on dirt at Gulfstream in his debut, but hasn’t run since March, and if this 2-1 favorite is so well-meant, why does this barn run two?

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/17/22)

Posted on July 15, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $916

My motivations for putting out as much content as I do are pretty wide-ranging. Obviously, I want to do well, but I also want to make sure I’m providing something of value to horseplayers of all skill levels. Whether you’re at Saratoga for one afternoon or firing every day, I want to put stuff together that you find worthwhile.

I got an absolutely phenomenal text message from a friend Saturday morning saying he finally understood the Pick Five after reading my article previewing the sequence. As nice as it is to pick winners and give out successful tickets, texts like that are just as big a rush.

I said it yesterday and meant it: It’s the duty of every person with a platform to use it in ways that welcome others into horse racing and help them learn more. If you’re out there, you have that platform, and you’re not using it for that purpose, it’s a wasted opportunity.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: We got to my Pick Five single, who unfortunately didn’t kick on after looking ready to pounce going around the far turn. I dropped $30.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fifth, which sure looks like a pace meltdown waiting to happen. I’ll box #5 YARROW, #8 NEURO, and #10 ATHENRY in $2 exactas, and I’ll use them to finish off $2 doubles that start in the fourth with #4 TRUCULENT and #6 TWO THIRTY FIVE.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Big Invasion, Race 8
Longshot: Neuro, Race 5

Miracle Mike
Conman
Curly Larry and Mo

#8 MIRACLE MIKE: Lost nothing in his debut, when he ran second behind one of the better 2-year-olds we saw at the Belmont meet. This doesn’t seem like a bad group, either, but any sort of step forward from this Todd Pletcher trainee would likely make him tough to beat; #7 CONMAN: Debuts for Mark Casse and has posted a string of strong drills ahead of his unveiling. Most recently, the $300,000 auction purchase earned a five-furlong bullet earlier this month downstate; #5 CURLY LARRY AND MO: Has put forth a series of solid drills at Keeneland for a small barn that’s hit at a 26% clip to date in 2022. You have to dig a little to find it, but there’s some class in his bottom-side pedigree and it wouldn’t be stunning if he turned out to be a runner.

Mommasgottarun
Waters of Merom
Gris Tormenta

#6 MOMMASGOTTARUN: Runs for a tag for the first time after a failed try in stakes company north of the border last month. She ran into a pair of tough fields here last summer, but there are no monsters here and the cushy outside draw should be a big plus; #5 WATERS OF MEROM: Gets her claiming tag cut in half after running third for $50,000 at Belmont. This is a significant cutback in distance for the Linda Rice trainee, and it’s fair to wonder what effect that will have, but she’s got tons of back class and fits on figures; #1 GRIS TORMENTA: Merits a look underneath at a price as the lone closer in a race full of early speed. Her best is probably a cut below what’s necessary to win this, but the faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be.

To the Tune
Escapewithfriends
Crosstalk

#9 TO THE TUNE: Almost certainly needed her first start in nearly 11 months, and her connections protected her from being claimed in that spot. She ran well several times against similar-level foes last summer, and a return to that form gives her a big chance in this wide-open event; #7 ESCAPEWITHFRIENDS: Hasn’t been seen since November but has been working steadily at Monmouth Park ahead of her return. She was second against maiden special weight foes here on turf last summer, and if that form goes to dirt, she’s got a shot; #10 CROSSTALK: Adds blinkers and should show speed from the outside. Her lone dirt start saw her run fifth at Tampa Bay Downs, and this is probably the weakest group she’s run against to date.

Two Thirty Five
Truculent
Crafty Daddy

#6 TWO THIRTY FIVE: Has won back-to-back races downstate, including his last-out effort where he posted a 99 Beyer Speed Figure. He’s capable of running big races, seems to have found a home at this level, and has attracted Joel Rosario for this two-turn event; #4 TRUCULENT: Hasn’t won since December but has been running against non-claimers for most of that stretch. Mike Maker claimed him out of his last race at Churchill Downs, and he has a history of excelling with highly-priced new acquisitions; #7 CRAFTY DADDY: Had every right to need his first race in more than a year, but instead ran a credible second at this level. He was claimed that day, blinkers go back on, and a logical step forward would put him right there.

Rice entry (MTO)
Neuro
Yarrow

#8 NEURO: Makes his first start since November but gets an ideal setup for his 2022 debut. There seems to be a metric ton of early speed in this field, and he’s shown a big late kick. If he’s ready and gets a clean trip beneath Javier Castellano, he may be the one they have to hold off late; #5 YARROW: Graduated out of the maiden ranks with a big late run to prevail by a head downstate. He faces winners for the first time, and I’m not quite sure what sort of horses he beat that day, but he’s another with the right running style in this speed-heavy field; #10 ATHENRY: Draws a terrible post in this event but comes in off of a nice seven-furlong win downstate. That day’s runner-up came back to run reasonably well on opening day, and he could get first run behind tiring pacesetters turning for home.

Road to Success
Brunate
Victory Built

#4 ROAD TO SUCCESS: Was very wide last time out at Belmont, but re-rallied to finish second beaten less than a length. He was claimed that day by a barn that’s very strong with new acquisitions, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., lands here when he likely had several options; #10 BRUNATE: Has stepped forward in each of his last several starts and has hit the board in two starts at this level. While he’s 0-for-3 here, he’s also never been worse than third in that trio of outings, and Dylan Davis seems to fit him like a glove; #9 VICTORY BUILT: Comes back to the right level after misfiring against starter allowance company last month. His win two back in the mud at Belmont was sharp, and that day’s runner-up came right back to score at next asking.

Gallina (MTO)
New Ginya
Classic Lynne

#5 NEW GINYA: Didn’t get the best setup last time, but closed anyway and was beaten just a neck. She’s still a fairly-inexperienced horse, with just three career starts. She should get a better setup here and may be improving for a barn whose horses have been firing all year long; #11 CLASSIC LYNNE: Returns to the races for the first time since October, and trainer Joe Sharp’s numbers off of long layoffs are excellent. She gets Lasix for the first time, and while the post hurts, she hinted at some talent before heading to the sidelines late last year; #9 RUSSIARUSSIARUSSIA: Will get plenty of support solely because of trainer Chad Brown, and she did break her maiden in a decent race last time out. However, Monmouth works are a big red flag for me, and she lost to a few of these runners late last year. She’s not without a chance, but she’ll likely be too short a price for me to stomach.

Big Invasion
Asymmetric
Nobals

#8 BIG INVASION: Makes sense in a lot of different ways. He’s the lone true closer in a race with a lot of early speed, he’s won four in a row, he’s beaten several of these rivals in the past, and anything close to his usual effort would make him a very formidable favorite; #7 ASYMMETRIC: Was second to my top pick in the Paradise Creek but may be eligible to improve. He was a run-off in that race, which doubled as his first outing since September. If Wesley Ward can settle him down a bit, perhaps this colt can trim that 3 1/4-length margin a bit; #4 NOBALS: Comes in on a four-race win streak for Larry Rivelli, whose turf sprinters always merit respect. This gelding (make up your own jokes about the name, because I sure am) has also shown he doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well, which could prove very helpful.

Sound Money
Night Time
Three Two Zone

#4 SOUND MONEY: Exits a pair of seconds in graded stakes races behind some very, very nice horses. His back class is evident, this seven-furlong trip hits him right between the eyes, and he should sit an ideal trip just off the speed; #2 NIGHT TIME: Ran too badly to be true in the Grade 2 True North, when he may have bounced off a nice win in his 2022 debut. He likes this surface, has enough speed to be prominent early, and may be an overlay given the last-out clunker; #6 THREE TWO ZONE: Disappointed when second at 4/5 last time out following a smashing score two back in his first start for Ray Handal. That two-back effort netted him a 101 Beyer Speed Figure, and a return to that form would put him right there in a very classy race for the level.

R10

Our Jessica
Lola Lola
Jannie Mae

#5 OUR JESSICA: Is probably in “now or never” territory as the favorite in the Sunday finale. She ran second in her initial start for a $40,000 tag and was second in her lone two-turn turf start back in April at Aqueduct. If she doesn’t win, it’s anyone’s guess who does; #8 LOLA LOLA: Hasn’t shown a lot despite being bet in a pair of maiden special weight races. However, this daughter of Tiznow tries two turns for the first time and she’s bred to love such a route. The presence of top-tier turf rider Jose Lezcano doesn’t hurt, either; #1 JANNIE MAE: Goes second off the bench and may be a big price after not showing much in her 2022 debut. However, she ran into better horses all of last year and has experience going two turns on the lawn. That’s enough to merit an underneath look in a puzzling conclusion to the first weekend of the meet.