SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/16/22)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $946

The Grade 3 Sanford is one of two graded stakes races on the program, and it’s one of my favorite races of the meet for several reasons. There’s plenty of history here. It’s the race where Man o’ War was defeated by the appropriately-named Upset, and a pair of 1970’s winners (Secretariat and Affirmed) went on to win the Triple Crown the following year.

This year’s renewal drew a huge field of 12 and several notable storylines. Todd Pletcher could win the Sanford a ninth time with Forte or Major Dude. Andiamo a Firenze will look to emulate older brother Firenze Fire, who won the Sanford in 2017. Trainers Tom Amoss and Brad Cox, meanwhile, each saddle promising first-out winners shipping in from Churchill Downs.

2-year-old racing is one of the many things that makes Saratoga special. Here’s hoping we see something memorable Saturday afternoon.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: American Pure lost all chance at the start of the seventh race, when he nearly fell on his face out of the gate. Scratches reduced my losses to $24.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: Unfortunately, I think the back half of the card looks extremely chalky. This includes both graded stakes races. However, I do think there’s money to be made on the early Pick Five. I previewed that on PlayFecta (Catena Media’s horse racing site), and my 50-cent ticket reads as follows: 1,2,5 with 6,7 with 4 with 2,8 with 3,4,5,7,9.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Robyn and Eli, Race 3
Longshot: Raining Candy, Race 11

R1

North Pole
Never Change
Readyseekgo

#5 NORTH POLE: Took a significant step forward last time out in his first start beyond a mile. To say this million-dollar baby hasn’t panned out is an understatement, but early speed going two turns, in a field of horses that don’t like passing others, could prove tough to beat; #1 NEVER CHANGE: Takes a big drop for Todd Pletcher after a pair of clunkers in turf routes. He did run in a pair of pretty classy races as a 2-year-old, and blinkers going in is a notable adjustment; #2 READYSEEKGO: Is another going two turns on dirt for the first time. He should certainly be prominent early beneath aggressive rider Kendrick Carmouche, and perhaps he holds on for a piece of it.

R2

Chloe Rose
Tea Olive
Closing Deals

#7 CHLOE ROSE: Hasn’t won since October but loves Saratoga. She boasts a win and a second in two local starts and has been competitive at this level downstate. Blinkers go back on, and she could sit an ideal stalking trip; #6 TEA OLIVE: Gets protected second off the bench following a runner-up finish against $50,000 claimers at Belmont. She could conceivably move forward here, and this trainer/jockey combination already boasts a win at this stand; #1 CLOSING DEALS: Shortens up a bit after running third at this level last month. The inside draw isn’t ideal, but she’s shown she has some early zip and may be able to mitigate that issue with a sharp break.

R3

Robyn and Eli
Cape Cod Causeway
Jocosity

#4 ROBYN AND ELI: Has run second in all three outings and gets Lasix for the first time here. She had every right to need her last-out effort off a long break, but nearly prevailed over stakes foes. She’ll be a very short price, but looms large; #7 CAPE COD CAUSEWAY: Is one of a few that exits a key race with several next-out winners. Her two-back effort, though, came over a similar two-turn route, and it was arguably her best race to date. She seems live at a big price; #11 JOCOSITY: Draws a terrible post but seems to have plenty of potential in her debut. Her dam was stakes-placed on the lawn, she’s been working well, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride.

R4

Higher Quality
Cryo
Eagle in Love

#2 HIGHER QUALITY: Takes a big drop for Chad Brown off of an effort that’s too poor to be true. He’s bred up and down for this two-turn route, and anything close to his two-back win would likely get him the money; #8 CRYO: Stretches back out to two turns, and that’s been the configuration for some of his best efforts. He has the speed to sit a great trip just off the pace and could stand to benefit if the heavy favorite misfires; #4 EAGLE IN LOVE: Ran second in his first start at this level, and it wasn’t long ago he was 5-1 in a $100,000 stakes race. He has a history of troubles out of the gate, but a clean start coupled with his early speed could make him a pace presence here.

R5

Rally Squirrel
Front Line Dancer
Mr. Kringle

#9 RALLY SQUIRREL: Has run well in three starts at this level downstate and should relish a return to two-turns. His two wins have come over similar configurations at Aqueduct and Gulfstream, and his flexible running style could be a big, big plus; #2 FRONT LINE DANCER: Didn’t get a great setup last time, when he rallied from 10th into a pretty slow pace and was beaten less than two lengths. Deep closers and the inner turf don’t often mix, but there seems to be some speed signed on, and the rider switch to Irad is a big one; #5 MR. KRINGLE: Hasn’t won since a starter allowance score here last year, but he fires the same shot every time out and can’t be ignored. Flavien Prat has ridden him to two second-place finishes downstate, and he’s done some strong running here.

R6

Alcools
Flamingo Hawk
Long Term Thinking

#8 ALCOOLS: Has won two in a row over similar company and goes for the hat trick here. For a seven-furlong sprint, there isn’t a ton of apparent early speed signed on. I think he could get comfortable early and prove tough to catch; #1 FLAMINGO HAWK: Hasn’t won in a while and take a big drop in class for a barn that had a long, long meet here a season ago. Anything close to his mid-2021 Gulfstream form gives him a big shot, but those races were a long, long time ago; #5 LONG TERM THINKING: Has hit the board in 19 of 26 career starts and just missed at this level earlier this month at Churchill Downs. He’d definitely benefit from a faster-than-expected early pace, and this barn tends to spot claiming horses very, very well.

R7

Reinvestment Risk
Baby Yoda
Disco Pharoah

#5 REINVESTMENT RISK: Exits back-to-back seconds in Grade 1 races and headlines this loaded optional claiming event. I’m not entirely sure why he’s running here (as opposed to a stakes race), but we’ve seen him run second in four Grade 1 events, and anything close to that bests this group; #9 BABY YODA: Won a pair of starter allowances before finishing a distant fourth behind Jackie’s Warrior in the Grade 2 True North. He didn’t break well that day, so he has an excuse, but if this one’s so well-meant, why does Bill Mott also enter #2 NOVA RAGS?; #1 DISCO PHAROAH: Did not have an easy trip last time when fifth beaten a length in a similar spot at Belmont. The rail draw isn’t ideal for horses that tend to find trouble, but he’s shown plenty of talent for a strong outfit and has every chance to snag a piece of this with clear sailing.

R8

Bleeker Street
Technical Analysis
Rougir

#3 BLEEKER STREET: Is a perfect 7-for-7 and seems like the best of Chad Brown’s bunch in the Grade 1 Diana. Two of her stablemates have speed, which should set up well for her late kick, and this nine-furlong trip fits her like a glove; #1 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Went 2-for-2 here last summer and comes in off a win in the Grade 3 Gallorette at Pimlico. She did have a perfect trip that day on an easy lead, but the rail draw lends itself to her running style and perhaps she’s at her best right now; #4 ROUGIR: Didn’t fire in the Grade 1 New York, when she was fifth behind Bleeker Street as the 3/5 favorite. Perhaps she bounced off of a nice score in the Grade 3 Beaugay, and remember, she won the prestigious Group 1 Prix de l’Opera last fall in France.

R9

Naval Aviator (MTO)
Fort Ticonderoga
Forever Souper

#9 FORT TICONDEROGA: Turned heads with a swift win off the bench last month at Belmont and tries two turns and winners for the first time. Shug McGaughey’s horses tend to improve with experience and foundation, and I’m not sure this is the best race for the level we’ll see this summer; #3 FOREVER SOUPER: Is going the right way for Mark Casse, having won two in a row at Gulfstream. He’s shown an abundance of early speed and sure looks like the one they’ll be chasing early; NBS ENTRY: Both of these runners are intriguing and could offer value. #1 SETNA THE WISE exits a third-place finish against stakes company, and that day’s winner has since won again. #1A DRIPPING GOLD, meanwhile, turned heads (literally) with a debut win here last summer and goes second off the bench.

R10

Forte
Mo Strike
Valenzan Day

#4 FORTE: Was bet like he couldn’t lose in his debut and ran to the billing, coasting home clear by nearly eight lengths. Todd Pletcher trainees have won the Grade 3 Sanford eight times, and this one gives the outfit a big chance at number nine; #6 MO STRIKE: Showed some professionalism when stalking the pace and winning in his unveiling at Churchill Downs. There should be plenty of pace for him to chase here, and given his pedigree, he may be one to watch as races get longer; #12 VALENZAN DAY: Had an eventful journey when third in the Tremont Stakes last month. His two starts give him an experience edge over most of this group, and the outside draw should allow Joel Rosario to keep him out of trouble.

R11

Maybe Later (MTO)
Diva Ready
Raining Candy

#4 DIVA READY: Takes a big drop into a non-winners-of-two claiming event after running fourth across the border at Woodbine. This well-traveled filly makes her fourth start at a fourth different track and could capitalize on class relief in the Saturday finale; #8 RAINING CANDY: Almost certainly needed her last-out effort, which doubled as her first run since November. Her lone win came at this route last summer, and I think we’ll see a significant step forward at a pretty big price; #6 BELLA CONCHITA: Runs for a tag for the first time and may very well inherit the lead in a race that seems light on early zip. She’s been running longer for trainer Cherie DeVaux, so we know this distance won’t get her beat.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/15/22)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $970

If you followed me this spring, you saw I did some writing work for The Paulick Report. I’m fortunate to count several members of their staff as friends. One of them, Eclipse Award winner Joe Nevills, invited me onto this week’s episode of The Friday Show.

We discussed what goes into my work at Saratoga, as well as some key positive and negative angles that I look for in my handicapping. We fit a lot into about 15 minutes and would have gone a lot longer if not for a producer being a stickler about a strict time limit (it’s a good thing I like HIM, too).

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Fast Corey was outsprinted early in the finale and never had a shot. I dropped $30.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll look to extract some value out of my strongest opinion. I think #4 AMERICAN PURE is the most likely winner on the program. I’ll have a $15 win ticket on him, and I’ll also single him in a $5 cold double that ends with #7 STATIC FIRE in the eighth (the Coronation Cup). Finally, I’ll start a $1 Pick Three in the sixth with #4 DANZIGWITHTHESTARS and #7 RUSE, single American Pure in the seventh, and finish with #3 TWILIGHT GLEAMING, #6 DERRYNANE, and Static Fire.

TOTAL WAGERED: $26.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: American Pure, Race 7
Longshot: Static Fire, Race 8

R1

Maddie’s Grace
Camp Akeela
Im Just Kiddin

#3 MADDIE’S GRACE: Has been working slowly ahead of her debut, but this barn is sneaky with firsters and there’s reason to believe she can run. Her two half-siblings to race are both winners, her dam is kin to 2-year-old stakes winner Tip Tap Tapizar, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride; #6 CAMP AKEELA: Comes in off a pretty big gate work at Churchill Downs for a trainer that can win with first-time starters. Offspring of the late Laoban tend to be precocious. If there’s hesitation here, it’s because the dam-side pedigree is mostly turf; #5 IM JUST KIDDIN: Is bred in the purple, being by Triple Crown winner Justify and out of the dam of Grade 1 winner Bar of Gold. She’s worked consistently ahead of her unveiling, but this barn’s runners tend to need a race or two to get going.

R2

Remain Anonymous
Melting Snow
Customerexperience

#1 REMAIN ANONYMOUS: Hasn’t won in a while, but goes first off the claim for Brad Cox and has shown an affinity for this surface. Her lone local start was a win, and it helps that she doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well; #6 MELTING SNOW: Was claimed by Tom Amoss last month at Churchill and makes her local debut. Her late-2021 and early-2022 form would make her a major player here, and it wouldn’t be a shock if she found it in her first start for this outfit; #2 CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE: Drops down in class after spending much of 2022 knocking heads with tougher competition downstate. She’s hit the board three times in as many local starts and won impressively at this level back in January at Aqueduct.

R3

Curlin’s Wisdom (MTO)
Biondi
Whistler’s Honor

#4 BIONDI: May be in a “now or never” spot as what seems like the main speed in a turf route otherwise devoid of early zip. The inner turf course is kind to such situations, and Luis Saez has won lots of money putting speed horses on the lead; #3 WHISTLER’S HONOR: Was one-paced in his return off a long layoff and has every right to improve second off the bench. This is his first start around two turns, and his pedigree says such a journey should be right up his street; #5 MR. CONNECTICUT: Flopped when the blinkers were put on last time, and they promptly come off here. Joel Rosario, however, comes on, and this one would stand to benefit if my top pick is challenged early.

R4

Actualize
Just Like This
Suppressor

#1 ACTUALIZE: Is one of many taking a significant class drop in this maiden claiming event. He’s repeatedly shown early speed over some boggy surfaces and has the zip to make the rail draw an asset. If he gets comfortable, he could prove tough to catch; #6 JUST LIKE THIS: Hammered for $250,000 in 2020 and is in for less than 10% of that in this spot. He debuted going a mile on turf, adds both Lasix and blinkers for Cox, and could step forward; #7 SUPPRESSOR: Is 0-for-12 but has been competitive against better groups with regularity. He was most recently third downstate for a $40,000 tag, and he should be forwardly placed early on.

R5

Gooch Go Bragh
Al’s Prince
Lord of War

#2 GOOCH GO BRAGH: Was 4-1 in a $100,000 stakes race two starts back and now runs for a $35,000 claiming tag. Perhaps he’s not the horse he was in early-2022, but anything close gives him a big shot, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., rides when he likely had a few options; #10 AL’S PRINCE: Found starter allowance foes a bit too tough last time after breaking his maiden two back. That win came in his lone two-turn turf start to date, and while the post position is an obstacle, he may be talented enough to overcome it; #9 LORD OF WAR: Has shown some early speed against tougher groups, which could give him a favorable trip in his first start this year against claiming company. Dylan Davis enjoyed a stellar spring downstate and can be aggressive, so don’t be surprised if this one is on the pace at a bit of a price.

R6

Ruse
Danzigwiththestars
Bar Fourteen

#7 RUSE: Played a key part in my best day ever when he won here at 9-1 last September. He hasn’t run a bad race since that performance, and his proven upstate New York form is enough to earn my nod in a tough optional claimer; #4 DANZIGWITHTHESTARS: Won here twice last summer and was also a credible fourth in a minor stakes race. He hasn’t won since his second local score, but his last-out third hints he could be rounding back into form, and Luis Saez riding back is a positive; #2 BAR FOURTEEN: Has woken up since going back to the turf this past May and might be the main early speed. Jose Lezcano is one of the top turf riders on the circuit, and at a minimum he should be a primary pace factor at a considerable price.

R7

American Pure
I Am the Cash Man
Will E Sutton

#4 AMERICAN PURE: Threw in a clunker in a stakes-quality optional claimer last time out and drops way down the ladder. His wins two and three back were sharp, he’s been working well, and anything close to the 7/2 morning line hits me as a major overlay; #6 I AM THE CASH MAN: Provides the first “beware of Finger Lakes shippers” warning of the meet. Figures-wise, he stacks up reasonably well with this bunch, and it’s telling that Worrie takes a ride in for just one mount; #5 WILL E SUTTON: Drops down in class and should relish the shallower waters. He was less than 10-1 in a stakes race downstate two starts ago, and both of his wins have come at distances similar to this nine-furlong route.

R8

Static Fire
Twilight Gleaming
Derrynane

#7 STATIC FIRE: Has done absolutely nothing wrong in two starts and has never trailed at any point of call. The last-out runner-up came right back to win, we know she likes this route, and I think she’s a very promising prospect; #3 TWILIGHT GLEAMING: Has never finished worse than second in seven lifetime starts and won last year’s Grade 2 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint. She merits respect, but on Beyer Speed Figures, she hasn’t moved forward the way I thought she might. Against this field, she may have to fire a career-best shot; #6 DERRYNANE: Is a closer who sometimes finds trouble but is a handful when she gets clear sailing. There’s certainly plenty of speed for her to chase in the Coronation Cup, and a pace meltdown isn’t out of the question.

R9

Art Collector (MTO)
Set Piece
Public Sector

#1 SET PIECE: Is the likely favorite in the Grade 3 Forbidden Apple, and for good reason. Last year’s runner-up in the Grade 1 Fourstardave seems to run the same race every time out. In a race with plenty of speed on paper, that sort of effort makes him a formidable chalk; #7 PUBLIC SECTOR: Stepped forward in the Grade 3 Poker, when he rated off of a very slow early pace and still made up some ground late. He’s a perfect 3-for-3 at Saratoga and has every right to run a big one in his third start off a long layoff; #3 MIRA MISSION: Was a hard-luck second in the Grade 1 Turf Classic on the Kentucky Derby undercard. He’s certainly come to hand for trainer Ian Wilkes, and he’s got enough early speed to lay just off of what figures to be a solid pace.

R10

Rossa Veloce
Khali Magic
Shesawildjoker

#2 ROSSA VELOCE: Misfired first off the claim last time out, but she’s shown she’s not overly fond of Belmont Park. By contrast, she’s won at Saratoga, and she faces state-bred foes for the first time since a score at this level back in February; #3 KHALI MAGIC: Hasn’t won in a while but has been very competitive at this level all season long. She was a good second at this distance at Belmont two starts ago, and a similar effort in this spot gives her a big chance; #9 SHESAWILDJOKER: Won a stakes race last year and placed in two others, but went to the sidelines after a January clunker. She adds Lasix and has been working well for David Donk ahead of her return to the races.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/14/22; OPENING DAY)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

Last summer was the best summer of my career as a published handicapper. I led all members of the local media with 142 top-pick winners, those top-pick winners generated a positive ROI ($2.04, if you’re curious), and I turned a $277.10 profit in this bankroll section over the course of the meet.

In addition to the picks and analysis you can find in The Pink Sheet and online at AndrewChampagne.com every day, I’ll be playing with a $1,000 bankroll and offering daily wagering insight. As usual, all wagers assume races carded for turf stay there. Surface changes void all plays.

Finally, one quick note before we get started. Juan Vazquez has two horses entered on today’s card. Pennsylvania just suspended him through Jan. 26, 2025, and used words like “grossly negligent, cruel, and abusive.” Why is he allowed to run here? NYRA needs to fix this, and fix this quickly.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: With the blessing of an editor working on deadline, we’ll focus on the Opening Day nightcap, which houses my best bet of the day. #5 FAST COREY drops in for a tag and has shown blazing early speed. I’ll keep it simple, play a $30 win ticket, and hope she makes every pole a winning one at or near the 7/2 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Fast Corey, Race 10
Longshot: Angitude, Race 7

R1

Giocare
Bear Alley
Kershaw

#7 GIOCARE: Has precisely the right running style to perform well in a lid-lifter that seems loaded with early speed. This deep closer has run well at this level multiple times, got claimed back by Orlando Noda, and should be running well late when others may be pleading for the wire; #6 BEAR ALLEY: Comes in off of two straight wins at Churchill Downs and goes first off the claim for Bill Morey, who excels with new acquisitions. He makes sense, but it’s worth noting he’s 5-for-6 beneath the Twin Spires and 0-for-13 everywhere else; #9 KERSHAW: Drops in for a tag for the first time since February, when he won easily in a two-turn race at this level at Oaklawn. He’s another that should benefit from the likely race shape, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride.

R2

Half a Chance
Chocolate Gelato
Two Minute Drill

#1 HALF A CHANCE: Is the lone runner with experience in the first 2-year-old race of the meet, and she did everything but win last time out. She was beaten less than a length, was five lengths clear of the third-place finisher, and has since worked well twice at Keeneland; #6 CHOCOLATE GELATO: Hammered for $475,000 earlier this year and has been training steadily for Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher. The outside draw is a plus, and it wouldn’t be shocking if these connections had their first debutante of the season ready to go; #5 TWO MINUTE DRILL: Sold for $210,000 (seven times the sire’s stud fee) and is out of a Grade 1-winning sprinter. The works seem solid enough, and she may be a big enough price to provide value in vertical exotics.

R3

No Burn (MTO)
High Tide
Grand Journey

#4 HIGH TIDE: Takes a significant class drop after a strong spring downstate. He topped starter allowance foes twice before finishing a fast-closing fourth against optional claiming foes. Jose Lezcano knows this one well and should get plenty of pace to chase; #9 GRAND JOURNEY: Topped $25,000 claimers last time out and climbs up the ladder here. This is a tough spot for the level, but he fits on figures, boasts considerable back class, and has enough early speed to work out an ideal trip; #2 BE HERE: Has won two in a row with a pair of wildly-different trips. He wired them last time out at Delaware Park after making up as many as 15 lengths two back. This high-percentage outfit must be respected.

R4

Cheeky Tico (MTO)
Remote
Grand Cay

#3 REMOTE: Makes the most sense in a puzzling turf marathon. He was second at this distance downstate last time, Joel Rosario sees fit to ride back for Christophe Clement, and he should at least have enough tactical speed to be reasonably close early; #5 GRAND CAY: Adds blinkers for Shug McGaughey and was a bit wide last time when fourth behind a much-the-best winner. The rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., is noteworthy, and perhaps the blinkers will get him a bit more engaged early; #1 TIZ A GIANT: Is bred to run all day long and makes his first marathon start here. He’s by Tiznow, out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, and has every right to improve at a price against a group that doesn’t seem to include any world-beaters.

R5

Majority Partner
Tommy Gun
Catching Cupid

#3 MAJORITY PARTNER: Hasn’t started since April but has been working very well here and runs for a claiming tag for the first time. He showed speed against a better group last time, and he stands a big chance if he’s ready to fire; #4 TOMMY GUNN: Adds blinkers in his first start as a gelding. He’s another dropping into the maiden claiming rank for a sharp outfit, and Irad rides back; #2 CATCHING CUPID: Probably needed his last-out effort, which doubled as his first try since November. Charlton Baker trainees tend to move forward second off the bench, and such an improvement may be enough in this wide-open sprint.

R6

Life Changer (MTO)
King Moonracer
Just Say When

#9 KING MOONRACER: Merits respect as a closer in a race full of early speed. His 2022 debut off a long break was sharp, as he just missed when second at this level downstate. Castellano fits him well, and he’s the one they’ll have to hold off late; #4 JUST SAY WHEN: Has a win and two seconds from three starts and runs two straight races without a layoff line for the first time. He was second in a pretty fast turf sprint two back at Gulfstream and has shown he doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well; #1 STARRYSTARRYKNIGHT: Benefited from a race that fell apart late to get out of the maiden ranks. This is a steep class hike, but the abundance of early zip in here may mean this one has a shot to pick up the pieces for a minor award at a big price.

R7

Angitude
Tarabi
Gina Romantica

#4 ANGITUDE: Stretches out after a first-level allowance score at Churchill and has a running style that hints she’ll like this route. Smart money says inside speed will do well out of the new Wilson chute, and it’s tough to imagine this speedy daughter of Violence being taken back early; #7 TARABI: Has yet to run a bad race in her four-start career, one that includes a pair of minor awards in Grade 1 races. On talent, she more than fits here, but the outside draw could present a real obstacle given the extremely short run into the turn; #2 GINA ROMANTICA: Has a record that looks miles better if you draw a line through the Grade 3 Beaumont, where no horse was beating Matareya. The third-place finisher from her last race has since come back to win, and while I unfortunately doubt we’ll get the 8-1 morning line price given the connections, she merits respect in the first stakes race of the 2022 season.

R8

Customer List
Canisy
Santa Giulia

#6 CUSTOMER LIST: Was probably entered in the Penn Oaks just to make sure the race went. That event was won by the classy Haughty, and there are no such monsters here. She gets Lasix for the first time second off the bench, has posted two straight bullet drills, and looks well-meant for powerhouse connections; #1 CANISY: Just missed last time out after rating in an event completely devoid of early speed. There seems to be some pace to chase in here, and she’s got a big chance if Javier Castellano can work out a trip from the inside draw; #13 SANTA GIULIA: Needs a scratch to draw in but merits a look if she runs. She gets Lasix in her stateside debut after breaking her maiden overseas and, like my top pick, has posted back-to-back bullet works for Chad Brown.

R9

Summer Promise
Just Cindy
Vedareo

#9 SUMMER PROMISE: Never looked like a loser in her debut, where she won by five lengths and ran to her lofty $500,000 price tag. Her lone recorded drill since that race was a smashing four-furlong move at Churchill, and she looms large for D. Wayne Lukas in the Grade 3 Schuylerville; #1 JUST CINDY: Showed some maturity at first asking, when she rallied from fourth to win going away. That’s not an easy thing for a debuting runner to do, and she may have developed quickly enough to overcome the rail draw against a speedy group; #4 VEDAREO: Was bet like she couldn’t lose in her debut at Parx, which she won easily enough. The most recent works indicate that wasn’t a fluke, and when this barn comes up from Philadelphia with 2-year-olds, those runners are usually well-meant.

R10

Fast Corey
Mommasgottarun (MTO)
Rigby

#5 FAST COREY: Has posted insane early fractions in all three of her starts to date and runs for a tag for the first time. These are aggressive connections, so the drop doesn’t concern me, and I just cannot see any other runner coming close to this one early on. Such a scenario would make her very tough to catch late; #4 RIGBY: Nearly capitalized on the drop into the claiming ranks when a close second last month at Belmont. She wound up on the lead that day, but she’s also shown she can rate, which gives Luis Saez plenty of options; #9 QUEENS DANCER: Will be a big price after shipping in from Finger Lakes, but her lone turf start to date is probably the best race of her career. They went pretty fast early on that day, and it’s logical to think a return to the lawn will be to her benefit. Perhaps a win is too much to ask, but I wouldn’t be surprised if she hits the board at a large number in the Opening Day finale.

Saratoga Pre-Meet Musings Ahead of the 2022 Stand

We’re three days out from the start of the 2022 Saratoga meet. It’s an exciting time to be a horse racing fan, and, from my standpoint, it’s just as thrilling to be gearing up to deliver high-quality content for every race, every day.

Chances are you’re on this site because of my Saratoga stuff. This will act as a refresher for how things will work this summer, as well as a repository for several thoughts rushing through my head as a new summer meet beckons in upstate New York.

The content, and when it’s coming

I’m one of five featured handicappers in The Pink Sheet, a daily publication run by The Saratogian. It’s sold outside the track every day, and they’ve generously allowed me to post my stuff on my site as well.

Last summer, content on this little site, promoted solely on my social media and in a few published pieces, attracted more than 22,000 views. Of all the numbers and stats you’ll read in this piece, that’s the one that stuns me the most. To those that are preparing to come back for more this time around, thank you. You’re appreciated, you’re valued, and you’re the reason I still produce this content!

Unlike the other four Pink Sheet handicappers (worthy opponents, one and all), my content also features detailed analysis of each race, plus a bankroll blurb. I start each summer with $1,000, and you can track my fluctuations each day. One note here: All bankroll plays assume races carded for turf stay there. Surface changes void all plays, as do scratches.

Picks and analysis will generally be available about 36 hours before the races. For example, Thursday is opening day, and my content will be posted on Tuesday night. This is for several reasons, not the least of which is so editors in Saratoga aren’t waiting for me on deadline when I’m on the west coast and three hours behind. Bankroll plays will be available at the conclusion of the prior day’s action (if I could write that stuff in advance, I’d never lose!).

Last summer…was a really, REALLY good one. My 142 top-pick winners led all public handicappers at local media outlets. My ROI was $2.04, which meant you turned a profit by betting each of my top picks all summer long. My bankroll blurbs also proved profitable, as I grew a starting stake of $1,000 to $1,277.10.

I can’t promise I’ll replicate that success. It’s far and away the best Saratoga meet I’ve ever had as a public handicapper. In all honesty, it’s probably one of the best Saratoga performances by any every-race, every-day public handicapper in the media corps in recent memory. That isn’t ego or bluster. It’s grounded in numbers, made public for everyone to see every day.

There are a few things I can promise, though. The motivation for those promises comes from a strange place.

My approach

During and after the meet, there were a number of things that were said by several people that I noticed, and I took a few of them personally. It would appear my existence (and, in this case, my success) rubbed some people the wrong way.

Here are some facts: I love this game, I love the puzzles that are presented on a daily basis, and I love pari-mutuel wagering. It’s my money against your money and the money of anyone else who wants to put it down. Sometimes we win, sometimes we lose, but either way, there’s another puzzle to solve in 30 minutes. Want to talk horses? Grab your form, pull up a chair, and let’s do it.

You have to love those things, because this game is HARD, especially at the highest level. Public handicappers don’t have the option to skip races (as an aside, many who bash analysts on network broadcasts would be very wise to remember this). We grind, and we grind, and we grind some more, and after 40 days, we see where we stand when the dust settles.

When good things happen, I’m going to celebrate. It might put a target on my back, but if you’re not proud of hard work leading to tangible success, why do the work?

I respect everyone else who does this, at Saratoga and for any track, anywhere in the world. If someone beats me and claims either the all-media title or the Pink Sheet title, I’ll shake his or her hand, look him or her in the eye, say “good game,” and mean it. If anyone wants to believe otherwise, that’s his or her right. And it’s my right to say he or she is full of it.

After last summer, though, something I said in the heat of the meet rings true. Twitter egomaniacs can pound their chests about who the best handicapper on horse racing Twitter is. 10 months out of the year, I genuinely don’t care who’s mentioned.

However, from mid-July through Labor Day at one of horse racing’s last remaining cathedrals, if that conversation doesn’t include me, it’s a bad one.

When it comes to Saratoga, I won’t be outworked. When you come onto my website or buy a Pink Sheet at the track, you’re getting the product of someone who enjoys getting his hands dirty in the name of both competition and helping people make money.

I can’t promise a meet like last summer, or a day like the last Friday of the meet. I went 8-for-10, picked six straight winners in the middle of the card, publicly gave out a late Pick Four that paid nearly $400, and drove my former podcast co-host crazy.

What I can promise is the kind of process you, the reader, have hopefully come to expect from me. If that leads to results that tick a few people off, so be it.

Odds and ends

There are two significant renovations at Saratoga that will be front and center this summer. I’m not crazy about either of them.

The first is the Wilson chute. It runs parallel to Nelson Avenue and allows Saratoga to card one-mile dirt races. On the surface, this seems fine. More options aren’t a bad thing, and if there are enough dirt milers on the grounds to fill races, so be it.

However, two-turn dirt races are growing more and more sparse. The American horse racing industry is breeding for “brilliance” and one-furlong times at 2-year-old sales, not for horses to have long careers or run longer distances.

Consider this: The first two Saratoga cards are out, and they feature a total of two two-turn dirt races. They’re both mid-level claiming races, the types that may not have existed in Saratoga condition books a few decades ago.

If the Wilson chute provides another wrinkle in the condition book and contributes to a fun product, great. Still, I don’t like the direction this is going. If we’re stretching out seven-furlong races, cool. If two-turn races that are already too rare happen less, I think that’s a loss for horse racing.

The other renovation comes in the form of a new story on top of the paddock bar. It’s become a new premium seating option, available to groups for a few thousand bucks per day. I tweeted about this, and I’d like to further express myself in an environment that doesn’t have a character limit.

I grew up going to Saratoga with my dad. We’d get there early and get a picnic table in the backyard. I’d politely pester jockeys for autographs before the race, on the walk from the jockey’s room to the paddock.

The changes that have been made are chipping away at the types of experiences that got me hooked on this game, and for what? Nobody asked for a section of picnic tables by the Big Red Spring to be roped off and available for a fee. Nobody asked for access to jockeys to be limited before races. Nobody asked for Teresa Giudice to be trotted out as a “celebrity guest,” or for Chris Kay’s thankfully-aborted brainchild, a jockey house in the Saratoga paddock that would’ve eliminated what little jockey access still exists.

In the past, NYRA has handled premium seating with aplomb. The 1863 Club opened to rave reviews a few years ago, and The Stretch seems to be well-received, too.

However, I can’t shake one thought: Nobody asked for the massive structure that now exists by the paddock. It comes across as wildly exclusionary, and consider this: What happens if a 2-year-old, or any horse for that matter, gets spooked by noises coming from up above? Was this a thought NYRA had when constructing the building, or did the pursuit of the almighty dollar render that concept meaningless?

Also: Sorry to say it, but the building just seems ugly and soulless.

I don’t have a particular axe to grind (sorry to disappoint you conspiracy-minded folks out there, but most turf writers don’t). I give NYRA credit where it’s due, especially on their excellent TV programming. These two ideas, though, seem like misses, and I’d be delighted to be proven wrong on that.

A Different Kind of Recap

“Writing is easy. Just sit in front of a typewriter, open up a vein, and bleed it out drop by drop.”

Red Smith, one of the best writers of all-time, said that, and anyone who’s ever tried to put their thoughts into prose can relate. It’s in that spirit that I’m sitting down to write this and feeling equal parts pride and exhaustion.

I’m going to do something I don’t do often. There’s no shtick here. There’s no over-the-top, wannabe-pro-wrestling-manager delivery with a message that flies over the heads of two-thirds of my audience but hits the other third right between the eyes (often with words they don’t want to hear). This is me, as stripped-down as I can possibly present myself, explaining the mental construction of my brain for two months of the year, why certain numbers matter to me that couldn’t matter less to a lot of people, and what my next steps are.

You might’ve seen it or heard about it by now, but I had a really good summer at Saratoga. With 142 top-pick winners, I led The Pink Sheet for the third consecutive season (and fifth overall), and that total paced all members of the media who picked every race, every day, for a variety of different outlets available to the public. If you think that’s an easy job, you’re incredibly ignorant. The people who do this are sharp, dedicated to the game, and enjoy informing and educating the public, and every man and woman in this group has my eternal respect.

If you were on Twitter Monday night, what you saw was me comparing myself and a few friends/family members to Ric Flair and his entourage. I can be a little twisted, and rest assured, living with the way my mind works is a heck of a cross to bear sometimes.

Here’s what you didn’t see: After Ocean Air and Don’t Wait Up won the sixth and seventh races of the day and clinched the all-media title for me, I excused myself from a Labor Day party at my girlfriend’s house, went into the bathroom, locked the door, and cried my eyes out.

That probably sounds crazy to some of you. I don’t blame you for thinking that, and contrary to what some may think, I’m not writing this to change anyone’s perception of me. The Champagne family curse is that, no matter what, we can’t be invisible, and people cannot have neutral opinions of us. I’ve found ways to live with it, and I can sleep at night knowing those who have taken the time to get to know me know who I am and (mostly) seem to like me. What this will do, however, is peel back the onion in a way I’ve never done before. At a minimum, I hope it pays an appropriate amount of respect to a few things I’ve dealt with this summer.

I grew up in upstate New York going to Saratoga with my family. I’m not in New York anymore, and I don’t see my family nearly enough. That’s why I took a spur-of-the-moment, cross-country trip last month that involved more time on planes and in cars than time spent doing meaningful things.

I worked for The Saratogian as a full-timer for a year and a half, and was part of a packed press box during the 2012 and 2013 summer meets. The press box now looks like Thanos snapped his fingers and wiped out half the population. When I made my appearance at Saratoga, I didn’t even bother going up there.

I wanted nothing more than to be part of the horse racing industry, and for six years, I did a lot of great full-time work for some of the most recognizable brands in the business. I’ve been out of it for three years, ever since my position at The Daily Racing Form was shifted to part-time as a money move three days after I worked 36 hours over Labor Day weekend.

I’ve busted my butt freelancing for several outlets, and I’ve done work I’m incredibly proud of (including for DRF, the source of several relationships I greatly value). Much of the industry, however, has put me in a pool with other incredibly passionate people that it keeps at an arm’s length.

My full-time job is as a Communications and Marketing Manager for SHELTER, Inc., a non-profit in Northern California’s Bay Area. I enjoy what I do, but after putting in eight hours a day, the thing I most looked forward to other than spending time with my girlfriend was going home, handicapping, writing up cards, and going on podcasts/shows to talk about what I saw and how I planned to attack the racing programs in question.

If you saw me use the hashtag #OutWorkEveryone this summer and thought it was a total ego trip, you were wrong. I spent 40 hours a week getting the word out about how my agency is battling the homelessness problem in Contra Costa, Solano, and Sacramento counties, and then went home and, on average, produced between 10,000 and 12,000 written words per week for The Pink Sheet, TwinSpires Sportsbook, and Oddschecker US. In addition, I co-host my own YouTube show, am a weekly guest on Gino Buccola’s podcast, produce several weekly video hits for DRF, and was a featured guest at seminars held at this summer’s Pleasanton meet, which shared a weekend with Saratoga in July.

I’m not in an office at a racetrack, or in a casino somewhere mooching free wi-fi. I’m a guy with a “normal” job that, two months out of the year, has as abnormal a job as possible on top of it. It isn’t because I need the money, it’s not because I crave attention, and it’s not even because of the competition that comes with doing what I do.

It’s because I love Saratoga, I love horse racing, I love turf writing, and I long for the days where EVERYONE took it as seriously as I do.

I sat behind Paul Moran and John Pricci, and next to Tom Amello and Mike Veitch, in 2012 and 2013. This was a summer after I worked for the Clancy brothers at The Saratoga Special, and those three summers gave me as good of an education as I could’ve hoped for. The stories I heard about packed press boxes and every writer/handicapper actively competing with one another for the best stories and handicapping records inspired me and lined up with how I’d approach days at the races as a kid. I’d tear out pages from The Daily News and The New York Post, grab whatever papers were available for free on the way in, and soak up as much as I could.

Russ Harris was the dean of New York handicappers, and the stuff he did allowed mine to exist. The Battle of Saratoga in The Daily News was required reading, for aspiring turf writers and handicappers alike, and I pay homage to that with The Pink Sheet’s daily bankroll blurb. 

The people who created that content are mostly gone now. They’ve either passed away, retired, or moved to freelance work. Paul Moran passed following the 2013 meet, John Pricci’s in Florida, and the Daily News and Post both eliminated most of their racing staffs in similar cost-cutting moves. Nick Kling, my Pink Sheet predecessor, retired after a stellar career a few years ago, and Harris passed in 2016. I’ll spend the rest of my career (or however long The Pink Sheet will have me) chasing the success rates they had.

It’s easy to take what you see on social media and extrapolate that into an image that isn’t the real McCoy. I sometimes do myself no favors in this regard, and I’ll be the first to admit it. Between several stories involving major entities within the game, and the fact that nobody is doing the sort of thing I’m doing the way I’m doing it, it sometimes feels like a “one vs. all” situation, and there are times that bites me in the butt. That was the case a few weeks ago when trainer Chad Brown took exception to a tweet of mine. I didn’t say what he thought I said, but I understood why he thought I said it (I sent his barn doughnuts a few days later, along with a note I hope he read, and I’m going to call us even).

Chad’s response didn’t bother me. What hit me hard was the fact that people automatically assumed I said something I didn’t say and believed things I didn’t believe. That’s a byproduct of the age we’re in, and my body of work, skill as a writer/horseplayer, and history of turning my passion into final products didn’t matter one bit.

This is who I am: I’m the guy who works a 9-to-5 shift, goes home, eats dinner, and is up until after midnight working a day in advance so his editor doesn’t have to worry about a dude who left the paper eight years ago to live three timezones away blowing a deadline. I’m the guy that isn’t supposed to be a big deal in the business, and one who, 10 months out of the year, generally isn’t. However, I’m also someone who drove nearly 22,000 hits to the little-promoted website you’re on right now with daily content that had the highest strike rate of anyone actively handicapping Saratoga and giving information out in this way.

I don’t do what I do for points or political capital within the industry. If something hits me as broken, I’ll say it and I’ll say it in ways everyone can hopefully understand. I’m probably never going to be a simulcast host, or someone trusted by a major circuit to convey points on television and drive fan interest and betting money. I’ll never shut the door on that sort of opportunity, and I firmly believe I’d excel in that capacity, but I’ve come to terms with the fact that the call’s probably never coming.

There aren’t many people in racing like me. Some people think that’s a great thing, and those are the people my success ticks off. A bunch more, though, see past the gimmicky, sarcastic exterior and have said very positive things about the breadth and depth of my work, and that’s always something I’ll greatly appreciate. If you like what I do, know that I deeply value your support. When I thanked readers in my final bankroll blurb of the season, I meant every word. If even one person is enjoying my stuff like I enjoyed the work of Russ Harris and the Battle of Saratoga crew, that’s a win.

Now that Labor Day is over, though, we’re in the 10-month period where, to many, I’m just another guy who knows how to read a form. I’ll still be around, hosting my show and helping anyone who’ll have me, not because I’m some attention hound or someone who needs a spotlight, but because I want the industry to be at its best and I want to produce content that helps it get there.

My mind works in unconventional ways. With how much I work and how much of myself goes into each product, you bet I’ll celebrate when great things happen. If you think I’m an arrogant showoff, that’s your right, but it’s my right to tell you how hard I work and how much passion goes into what you see in articles, podcasts, and shows. Without that passion, I’m useless, so that’s a trade-off I’ll take 100 times out of 100.

142 winners is a big part of the story. However, it’s nowhere close to the full story…and THAT is called foreshadowing, kids.

Stay tuned.