BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $971

I can’t believe I’m using this space for this reason, but I feel compelled to say this: Be kind to those in the service industries.

Despite what many may want to think, the pandemic is not over. Supply chains are jumbled, and many people who were in low-paying positions have not returned to them. Because of that, those who have shown up to work are being forced to do more with less during what’s already an incredibly stressful time.

My mom, my sister, and my step-sister all worked in restaurants, so this is pretty close to my heart. If you go out to eat, be patient with people. Give them space, tip them well, and don’t blow your top over simple mistakes. An article in the San Francisco Chronicle said it best: Some people are just forgetting to be human. Don’t be like them.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: I had the right idea, as Royal Realm was indeed a bad morning line favorite in the opener, but I didn’t use Ashaar.  Because of that, my early doubles fizzled and I dropped $24.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the third and seventh races of the day. #9 CAUMSETT looks like the lone speed in the third, and that’s dangerous over the inner turf. I’ll put $15 to win on her, and in the seventh, I’ll look to extract some value out of #7 KAELY’S SISTER. She’s on top of a cold $5 exacta that uses #4 THIEF OF HEARTS in second.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Kaely’s Sister, Race 7
Longshot: Caumsett, Race 3

R1

Trade Secret
Tout Ensemble
Tap N Glo

#2 TRADE SECRET: Has run well in two prior starts at Churchill Downs and missed by just a head last time out. Her experience could give her an edge in the Sunday lid-lifter, and she’s shown enough early zip to suggest she’ll be on the engine early on; #4 TOUT ENSEMBLE: Debuts for Chad Brown and is bred to be a good one. She’s kin to three winners, and her female family includes the second dam of Grade 1 winner Archarcharch; #6 TAP N GLO: Ran in spurts in her debut at Ellis Park, when her final rally left her less than a length back of that day’s winner. Brad Cox is among the best in the game with second-out maidens, and her local workouts look pretty solid.

R2

Money in the Bank (MTO)
Veterans Beach
Panster

#5 VETERANS BEACH: Is probably in a “now or never” spot for this condition. He hasn’t won since the summer of 2018, but his usual race puts him right there and he could sit an ideal stalking trip behind several horses who seem to need to be on the lead; #11 PANSTER: Was last of nine early in what turned out to be a paceless race last month. He still salvaged a fourth-place finish that day, and there sure seems to be a lot of speed in this field; #6 LUNA’S IN CHARGE: Goes second off the layoff and returns to the turf, a surface I’m shocked he hasn’t tried since a good second at this level and route last summer. Tyler Gaffalione sees fit to ride, and he’s another that could benefit from the likely race shape.

R3

Caumsett
Marvelous Maude
Pop the Bubbly

#9 CAUMSETT: Has run well twice since coming off the bench and sure looks like the main speed in this race. Being the lone speed on the inner turf is often a very powerful quality, and I think she could get brave if left alone up top; #3 MARVELOUS MAUDE: Ran third in her debut downstate and gets the services of Irad Ortiz, Jr., here. Improvement is logical at second asking for a very powerful barn, and she’s a logical betting favorite; #7 POP THE BUBBLY: Isn’t just a hunch play and may be live at a price. Her lone prior turf effort at Aqueduct was a good one, as she rallied to be second despite rating off of a pretty slow pace. If she’s ready to run off the bench, she could be a threat to hit the board at a nice number.

R4

Dubb entry
Tale of the Union
Moonachie

DUBB ENTRY: #1 EXCELLENT TIMING tries older goes and looks like the main speed. He gets Lasix for the first time and tries non-stakes company for the first time since his 2-year-old season, and ultra-consistent stablemate #1A BRONX BOMBER isn’t without a chance, either; #2 TALE OF THE UNION: May have needed his 2021 debut, in which he hung a bit and settled for third. He’s been competitive at this level several times, and he’s got enough speed to be able to use the rail draw as an asset; #3 MOONACHIE: Is a hard-knocking sort that always seems to run the same race. He’s won here before, and he’s also been competitive against open company, which gives him some back class ahead of this state-bred event.

R5

Summer At the Spa
Herald Angel
Lime

#6 SUMMER AT THE SPA: Gets a tepid nod in a wide-open claimer for older turf distaffers. She drops back in for a tag after two tries against better horses in starter allowance races, and I think she’ll find these shallower waters more to her liking; #2 HERALD ANGEL: Cuts back in distance after tiring going seven furlongs downstate. She was a good second in her debut at this route last summer, and this is her first start in the claiming ranks; #10 LIME: Drops in class after running well to be second in a $40,000 optional claiming event at Woodbine. She’s shown she doesn’t necessarily need the lead to run well, and that could help her work out a trip given the tricky outside draw.

R6

Four Dawn
Gal in a Rush
Lemieux

#2 FOUR DAWN: Sure looks flashy heading into her debut for Brad Cox, whose barn is firing on all cylinders to start the meet. Her dam, Third Dawn, has thrown five runners to date. All five have won, and this one’s gate works hint that she’s got talent, too; #6 GAL IN A RUSH: Fetched $375,000 at auction earlier this year and has recorded several fast drills, which isn’t always typical of Christophe Clement-trained 2-year-olds. Joel Rosario sees fit to ride, and she’s another that could be well-meant; #3 LEMIEUX: Ran into next-out stakes winner Happy Soul in her debut but didn’t run badly to finish second. She sports a recent bullet over this track, is certainly eligible to improve, and may be an inflated price if there’s steam on some of the debutantes in this event.

R7

Kaely’s Sister
Thief of Hearts
Master of Hope

#7 KAELY’S SISTER: Is odds-on for a good reason, as it looks like she lays over this field. She’s shipped in after a win and a second in her first two starts on dirt, and in both of those races, she showed an abundance of early zip that should put her on the front end soon after the gates are sprung here; #4 THIEF OF HEARTS: Was ready off the long layoff and scored by more than four lengths in her first outing since October. She faces winners for the first time here, but that last-out effort was impressive and I see it as a sign of confidence that they didn’t risk her for a claiming tag for a second race in a row; #3 MASTER OF HOPE: Moved forward off the claim by Orlando Noda when second in a starter allowance event last month. She’ll do her best running late, and if a pace battle develops up front, she certainly figures to be one of the main beneficiaries.

R8

Winston’s Chance (MTO)
City Man
No Word

#9 CITY MAN: Found Grade 1 company too tough when he finished up the track in the Manhattan on Belmont Stakes Day, but his two-back effort in the Grade 2 Fort Marcy was quite good. He was a fairly close second that day while earning a 100 Beyer Speed Figure, and if he bounces back, he’ll have a big shot; #12 NO WORD: Had nowhere to go most of the way last time out (trust me, I needed him badly) and hasn’t been seen since. He’s been working steadily for Todd Pletcher and his best effort would put him right there, but the far outside post is a big concern; #4 VALUE ENGINEERING: Has never finished off the board in eight career starts but seems to have an aversion to winning. He’s only gotten up at the wire twice, and several of his losses have been pretty brutal if you’ve needed him. The connections merit respect, but I’ll try to beat him, especially if he comes down from the 9/2 morning line price.

R9

Dunbar Road
Royal Flag
Crystal Ball

#4 DUNBAR ROAD: Had every right to need the Grade 1 La Troienne, which was her first start since the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. She chased Shedaresthedevil that day, and there are no such monsters here. She won the Grade 1 Alabama here two summers ago and looks poised to fire a big shot in the Grade 3 Shuvee; #7 ROYAL FLAG: Has never missed the board in nine lifetime outings and took a Grade 3 two starts back at Aqueduct. She was second in this race a season ago and once again figures to be a major player; #6 CRYSTAL BALL: Just missed in last year’s Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks at this route and reeled off three straight wins to kick off her 2021 campaign. Those did come against weaker fields, though, and this event should serve as a strong acid test.

R10

Mubarmaj
Legit
Villainous

#8 MUBARMAJ: Dropped to this level last time out and responded with an easy score against an overmatched group. Several rivals he thumped that day come back for another try, but this Todd Pletcher trainee certainly looks like the one to beat; #5 LEGIT: Didn’t have a great start when chasing my top pick last time out and was claimed by George Weaver, whose new acquisitions tend to improve. He was second beaten less than a length at this route last summer, and he could be formidable if he gets a pace in front of him; #3 VILLAINOUS: Was aggressively spotted last time out and wound up being in over his head. He gets back to the correct level in this spot, and it’s worth noting both of his outings for this claiming price this season have led to second-place finishes.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $995

This week’s edition of “Champagne and J.D.” featured one of our best friends in the game. Barry Spears co-hosts the “Going in Circles” podcast, and you may have seen his stuff all around horse racing’s social media platforms. He’s a great ambassador for the game, and we analyzed Saturday’s late Pick Four in detail.

We have a lot of fun with this show, and I’d put its quality up against any other podcast/video show in the community. Here’s hoping you enjoy it!

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: The scratch of my best bet changed a lot in the seventh race. In the pick box, I inherited a class-dropper that showed little interest, and in here, much of my action was wiped out. After that scratch, I dropped $10.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus my action on the early part of the card, as I’m against the likely chalk in the opener. I’m punching $6 doubles starting with #2 GOOD CULTURE and #5 PRIME TIME PLAYER in that race and ending with #2 FREEDOMOFTHEPRESS and #9 TRACY FLICK in the second.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Malathaat, Race 5
Longshot: Prime Time Player, Race 1

R1

Prime Time Player
Good Culture
Royal Realm

#5 PRIME TIME PLAYER: Broke his maiden last time out at Churchill Downs and comes in off a very strong work here on July 11th. He sold for $430,000 as a yearling in 2019, so someone obviously thought there was talent here, and perhaps he’s finding his footing; #2 GOOD CULTURE: Looks a lot better if you draw a line through his two-back dud at Pimlico. He was second against similar downstate and was claimed by Mike Maker, who has enjoyed plenty of success early in the meet; #7 ROYAL REALM: Takes a very suspicious drop in class and sheds blinkers for this event. Based on numbers, he’s the one to beat, but he was fourth against allowance foes last time out and originally sold for $250,000, so why is he in for less than 20% of that after just four starts?

R2

Tracy Flick
Freedomofthepress
Pathetique

#9 TRACY FLICK: Has a bad habit of finding trouble, but the outside post she’s drawn could really help her in that regard. She was classy enough to try stakes foes as a maiden last time out, and if she can stay out of trouble, she’s strictly the one to beat; #2 FREEDOMOFTHEPRESS: Ran second and third in two starts last season, and each of the runners that beat her also won their next starts. She gets Lasix for the first time, and if she’s ready to run off of her long break, she’s got a big chance; #4 PATHETIQUE: Missed the break in her debut and has every right to improve here. This daughter of Uncle Mo fetched $450,000 at auction, has turned in two sharp four-furlong works since she got here, and may be an inflated price given the last-out clunker.

R3

Cantrell Hill
Win With Pride
Alcools

#3 CANTRELL HILL: Made his first start off the claim a winning one for Robertino Diodoro last month at Churchill Downs. He’s got six top-two finishes in seven starts this season, and his tactical speed and flexible running style should give David Cohen plenty of options; #2 WIN WITH PRIDE: Rallied to be fourth against higher-priced claimers downstate, and that’s not what he wants to do. He wants to be on or near the lead, and the presence of aggressive rider Luis Saez should benefit him; #5 ALCOOLS: Earned a career-best 87 Beyer Speed Figure when splashing home in the slop earlier this month. He’s since changed barns, but a repeat of that performance could put him right there in a tough race for the level.

R4

Lyrical Poet
Tallaj
Count Down

#2 LYRICAL POET: Was a close-up second at this level at Belmont, and it helps his cause that that day’s third-place finisher won at next asking. Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back for Wesley Ward, and he figures to be prominent from the first jump; #6 TALLAJ: Tries turf for the first time and is bred to love it. He’s by Lemon Drop Kid, out of a Tale of the Cat mare, and makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice, who does well with new acquisitions; #3 COUNT DOWN: Put it all together with a wire-to-wire win over yielding going on Independence Day. This is his first try against winners, and I’m not quite sure what he beat least time, but Jose Ortiz returns to ride and maybe this gelding is starting to figure things out.

R5

Malathaat
Clairiere
Maracuja

#1 MALATHAAT: Looms very large over an unfortunately short field in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks. She’s 5-for-5, comes in fresh for the Pletcher/Velazquez tag team, and has enough speed to be prominent early; #4 CLAIRIERE: Is a very nice filly with a Grade 2 win to her credit. She was most recently third in the Grade 2 Mother Goose at Belmont, and perhaps stretching back out to two turns will help her; #2 MARACUJA: Passed a few rivals to be seventh behind my top pick in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. Ricardo Santana, Jr., picks up the mount, and she’d benefit from a faster-than-expected pace.

R6

Watasha
Midnight Worker
Fluid Situation

#7 WATASHA: Hammered for $450,000 at Keeneland last September and has been training well for Chad Brown. He’s a half-brother to stakes winner Our Caravan, and his second dam is multiple Grade 1 winner Jersey Town, so he has every right to be a real runner; #1 MIDNIGHT WORKER: Draws the rail in his unveiling for Pletcher. He’s another with a strong work tab, and few barns on the circuit have been as historically solid with first-time starters as this one; #10 FLUID SITUATION: Sold for $200,000 in April despite being by a sire that commands just a $5,000 stud fee. He’s kin to multiple Grade 3 winner Axelrod and stakes-placed sprinter Trelawny, among others, and Joel Rosario has won at a 35% clip when riding for John Terranova in recent years.

R7

Mira Mission
Space Launch
Sifting Sands

#6 MIRA MISSION: Chased a very classy runner home last time out and stretches back out to two turns. He’s 2-for-2 over such configurations, and top turf rider Jose Lezcano sees fit to ride back; #11 SPACE LAUNCH: Hasn’t run a bad one in three lifetime starts and certainly has the ability to win this. Rosario and Clement must be respected, but he won’t have it easy breaking from that far outside post; #3 SIFTING SANDS: Broke his maiden two back before not showing much interest against stakes company at Aqueduct. He’s been rested since, and these are certainly shallower waters than what he saw last time out.

R8

Rastafara
Split Then Double
Ego Trip

#3 RASTAFARA: Has been close in both of her career outings and gets a tepid nod here. She’s at least shown a hint of tactical speed, and she may be tough if she’s forwardly placed here given the lack of apparent early zip in this field; #1 SPLIT THEN DOUBLE: Is the other half of Chad Brown’s 1-2 punch and just missed behind a next-out winner in her first start since October. The rail isn’t an easy draw for a closer, especially in a race that seems to be lacking early speed, but perhaps she’s just better than this bunch; #9 EGO TRIP: Gets Lasix for the first time after running second in her debut overseas. That day’s winner went on to run in the Group 1 St. James’s Palace at Royal Ascot, and he beat the third-place finisher by four lengths.

R9

Caramel Swirl
Zainalarab
Amendment Nineteen

#6 CARAMEL SWIRL: May have bounced or simply found Grade 2 company too tough in the Eight Belles. Her maiden-breaking win two back was very good, and she comes into this event off of two bullet drills over the Oklahoma track; #7 ZAINALARAB: Won her debut at Belmont as a 2-year-old and ran into Australasia in her return. Her local drills are very good, and she has every right to run well if she’s ready; #5 AMENDMENT NINETEEN: Chased a next-out winner in her debut before recording a professional score in the slop last time out. Linda Rice will add blinkers for this event, and Jose Ortiz lands here when one has to figure he had some options.

R10

Robin Sparkles
Caravel
Jakarta

#2 ROBIN SPARKLES: Has won five of six turf starts and looms large in the Grade 3 Caress. She’s got a ton of early speed, has won over this route, and will invite us to the mall if she finds the winner’s circle (or build sand castles in the sand if she loses); #1 CARAVEL: Looms the main treat and comes in off of an impressive win at Monmouth Park. She’s never been out of the money in eight lifetime starts and would benefit from another runner going on a suicide mission and dueling with my top pick; #6 JAKARTA: Looks best of the rest and has enough back class to suggest she’s well-meant. She was second in this race a season ago, has won eight times, and may benefit from the outside draw in a compact field.

R11

My Lips Are Sealed
Just Ok Is Not Ok
Unicorn Sally

#7 MY LIPS ARE SEALED: Is a very logical favorite after finishing a close-up third behind two next-out winners in her last start. She’ll likely be on or near the lead from the jump, and if she gets comfortable, I think she’ll be tough to run down; #6 JUST OK IS NOT OK: Put it all together to break her maiden last time out and has improved in all three of her outings. I’m not quite sure what she beat that day, but Saez will be back in the saddle for Pletcher and maybe she’s figuring things out; #9 UNICORN SALLY: Has run far better around two turns than one and returns to her preferred configuration here. Maybe she’s just off form, but her races from this past winter at Aqueduct and Gulfstream weren’t bad, and repeats of those performances could put her right there at a nice price.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,029

Marcus Vitali is running a horse Thursday at Saratoga. If you don’t know that name, Google it and read articles about him in outlets such as The Paulick Report. In particular, I would urge you to read about his activities at Delaware Park, where he once fled his barn on foot with suspected contraband in hand after track security showed up to conduct a search.

Last year, it was reported that Wayne Potts was acting as a “program trainer” for Vitali in Maryland shortly before a Potts trainee won a stakes race at Saratoga. Instead of being proactive, the New York Racing Association made no meaningful public statements and took no meaningful public actions. The presence of a Vitali-trained horse at Saratoga is a result of these unforced errors, and it’s an embarrassment, for lack of a better term.

NYRA: Do better, and don’t tell us your hands are tied. There’s a certain white-haired trainer you’ve recently attempted to block from the entry box for out-of-state behavior, and you could’ve done exactly the same thing here.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Amistad didn’t seem like he took to the yielding turf course and was off the board in the seventh. After scratches, we dropped $26.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’m focusing on the late double and playing $3 tickets starting in the ninth. #3 ICE PRINCESS hits me as a beatable favorite in the first leg, and I’ll use #1 STOP SHOPPIN TAMMY/#1A PLAYED HARD and #5 PORTILLA with #2 ORMA, #9 SASSY BELLE, and #12 STELLA MARS in the nightcap. I’ll also put $2 across the board on Sassy Belle, who’s 30-1 on the morning line. If she runs well at a big price and I don’t make money, I’ll be pretty upset.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Expand the Map, Race 5
Longshot: Sassy Belle, Race 10

R1

Galway Kid
Redicean
Gibralfaro

#5 GALWAY KID: Was eased against some of the best jump horses in America in the Grade 1 Iroquois, and I can’t hold that against him. He chased Snap Decision twice here last summer, and a repeat of his Group 3 score two back would give him a big shot; #4 REDICEAN: Earned minor awards in a pair of Grade 1 races here last summer and won a restricted stakes here back in 2019. He hasn’t won in a while and he’s the top weight here, but his best is certainly good enough; #6 GIBRALFARO: Is another without a recent win to his credit, but he just missed behind my top pick last time out. The presence of a 31% pilot is noteworthy, and Hall of Fame-bound conditioner Jack Fisher must be respected.

R2

Wicked Mad
Recidivist
Pregame

#3 WICKED MAD: Looks best of a mediocre bunch in the first flat race of the day. He mildly rallied last time out in his first start for a tag, adds blinkers in this spot, and at least his form seems like it’s trending upward; #7 RECIDIVIST: Makes his first start for Kelly Breen, whose horses have been running well in the early part of the meet. He showed speed against a better group in the spring at Keeneland, and that day’s winner came right back to win again; #6 PREGAME: Goes back to the dirt and drops in for a tag for the first time. His three-back effort at Keeneland was fine, and this barn has done well with similar droppers in the recent past.

R3

Rice entry
Potts entry
Persian Queen

RICE ENTRY: It’s likely only one will run, but either half can win. I prefer #2B FOREVER CHANGED, who has a significant amount of back class and was third in last year’s Union Avenue against far better horses at this route of ground; POTTS ENTRY: #1A VIOLENT TRICK was a close-up second earlier in the meet and would be wheeled back in less than a week. She hasn’t won in a while, but her tactical speed would be an asset against this group; #5 PERSIAN QUEEN: Hasn’t won in nearly a year but is worth a long look. She’s run well in two starts since a brief freshening, two of her three wins have come over this surface, and she’s shown an ability to pass other horses late. If there’s a meltdown, she could come running at a nice price.

R4

Dancing Kiki
Tenderness
Red Venus

#2 DANCING KIKI: Gets a tepid nod in a race I’m not excited about in the slightest. She takes a big drop back into the claiming ranks, and her form looks far better if you solely consider her races over fast dirt tracks; #5 TENDERNESS: Hasn’t run a bad one in her last four starts and just missed downstate. Wayne Potts does well with new acquisitions, and her flexible running style should give David Cohen plenty of options; #4 RED VENUS: Wouldn’t be a surprise based on numbers she’s run elsewhere. Still, it’s tough to be excited about Marcus Vitali being allowed to run here given his long record of violations and run-ins with regulating bodies in other states.

R5

Expand the Map
Gal in a Rush (MTO)
Pizza Bianca

#4 EXPAND THE MAP: Has strong European turf breeding on top and bottom and looms large in her debut for the Chad Brown barn. She sold for more than $313,000 at auction late last year and sure looks like the one to beat; #10 PIZZA BIANCA: Hasn’t worked particularly fast leading up to her unveiling but has the pedigree to be any kind. The Bobby Flay homebred is out of a Galileo mare, who herself is a half-sister to Epsom Derby winner and sire Pour Moi; #2 BALI BELLE: Is the “other” Christophe Clement trainee making her debut in this spot. She’s by young sire Bal a Bali, who did his best work on turf, and the bottom-side pedigree boasts a number of nice horses as well.

R6

Derrynane
Rooski
Enjoy Summer

#3 DERRYNANE: Boasts a strong recent gate work and has the pedigree to be a runner. Dam Portmagee was a stakes-winning turfer, and Joel Rosario sees fit to ride for Clement when he almost certainly had some options; #9 ROOSKI: Debuts for Jeremiah Englehart and sure looks like a turf horse. She’s by Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Tourist and out of a Freud mare that’s already thrown a pair of multiple winners; #6 ENJOY SUMMER: Is by Kitten’s Joy and out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, so it’s not surprising to see her show up on the lawn. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because I think she may want two turns given that pedigree.

R7

Chloe Rose
Red Pepper Grill
Quantitativbreezin

#10 CHLOE ROSE: Comes back to the right level and surface after showing speed on the turf against more expensive claimers last time out. She’s never run a bad race sprinting on dirt, and Javier Castellano got to know her a bit when riding her to a third-place finish two back at Belmont; #7 RED PEPPER GRILL: Is another going back down the ladder after trying tougher competition. Her form looks far better if you only consider the one-turn dirt races, and she’d benefit from a fast pace that would set things up for a closer; #6 QUANTITATIVBREEZIN: Goes turf to dirt for the Brad Cox barn, which popped with three of its first five runners at this stand. She wouldn’t shock me, but her lone win came in an off-the-turf event. I just don’t think she beat much there, and I can’t endorse her on top at her likely price.

R8

Lovely Lucky
Mia Martina
Cat’s Pajamas

#5 LOVELY LUCKY: Drops in after three tries against graded stakes company, and her best effort against those types came at this route, when she was fourth in the Grade 2 Glens Falls last summer. She’s been off since January, but anything close to her best would make her tough; #6 MIA MARTINA: Stretches out to a marathon distance for the first time, but is another getting some class relief. She started off her career with two wins in Florida before four straight runs in stakes races, and the shallower waters could be to her liking; #2 CAT’S PAJAMAS: Is another stretching out to a long distance and does so after two second-place finishes on the mid-Atlantic circuit. This barn must be respected, however, and perhaps this trip will allow her to find the form she showed last spring and summer.

R9

Bauer entry
Portilla
Ice Princess

BAUER ENTRY: #1A PLAYED HARD has shown plenty of talent and put it all together in her first start going two turns last month. This type of route may be what she’s always wanted to do, and it’s encouraging to see Tyler Gaffalione aboard once again; #5 PORTILLA: Won her debut in April and didn’t run poorly in her first start against winners. This is her first try going two turns, and her recent local drill hints that she’s doing well following the trip to upstate New York; #3 ICE PRINCESS: Isn’t the worst favorite in the world and has seven top-two finishes in 11 career starts. However, she’s winless going two turns, and while she ran second in two stakes races last season, she also ran second twice at Aqueduct in races where she didn’t have many excuses. I simply need more value than I’m likely to get here.

R10

Orma
Stella Mars
Sassy Belle

#2 ORMA: Gets a big rider switch to Luis Saez for this wide-open finale. Her last-out effort downstate saw her move a bit early, and between the shorter distance, the top jockey, and the barn she comes from, I think there’s plenty to like; #12 STELLA MARS: Draws a terrible post but may well be talented enough to overcome it. Her turf sprints are solid and she nearly won when second against similar off of a four-month layoff at Belmont; #9 SASSY BELLE: Will be a big price, but she was just 7-1 in her debut last summer, when she was pulled up and vanned off. She’ll run with Lasix here, her 329 turf Tomlinson figure is solid, and there are some workouts hinting that she can run. Perhaps a win is a bit too much to ask, but I wouldn’t be shocked if she hits the board at a gigantic price.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,055

One bit of advice to any kids/struggling adults who read this: Bet on yourselves. You’ll win far more than you lose.

Five years ago, AndrewChampagne.com was born after one person at my then-employer told me, in no uncertain terms, that my handicapping contributions were not appreciated. Since then, it’s provided an outlet for me to write anything from analysis to satire, including an epic, 50-pronged clap-back at a bloodstock agent who thought he could push me around and was proven wrong very quickly (hi, Bradley).

Through four racing days, with no publicity other than my social media and plugs in this space, my little site got nearly 2,000 hits. Sustaining that clip would crush all records for Saratoga, and I’m grateful to all of you for reading my stuff and supporting me each year. Let’s see if we can keep this good start going!

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: We were washed out of our $27 late Pick Four ticket when the Coronation Cup was moved off the turf. Remember, all wagers in this space assume races carded for the lawn stay there.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: The back half of the card excites me more than the front, so we’ll focus on the seventh. I think #5 AMISTAD has a big chance at a square price, and I’ll start with a $10 win bet plus $2 exactas using that one above and below #4 JUSTINTIMEFORWINE, #7 ABSAM, and #9 PREFECT. Finally, I’ll single Amistad in $2 doubles that end with #4 ALPHALFA, #5 SWASHBUCKLE, #6 SHIRAZ, and #10 THREE OUTLAWS in the eighth.

TOTAL WAGERED: #30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Brown entry, Race 3
Longshot: Amistad, Race 7

R1

The Mean Queen
Fast Car
Bodes Well

#3 THE MEAN QUEEN: Is 3-for-3 over fences and looms large in the first steeplechase race of the summer. Not only has she not lost in these races, she’s never truly been tested, and she’s a legitimate favorite; #4 FAST CAR: Almost certainly needed his return last month and won over fences here last summer. He was 3-1 in a race at this level in August when he was eased, and a return to his mid-2020 form would make him logical; #7 BODES WELL: Hasn’t won in quite a while but sure looks like the lone early speed in this race. He’s not without form, and he could lead them a long way at a nice price.

R2

Copa
Democratic Values
Frosted Indian

#6 COPA: Comes back into the claiming ranks after showing speed against far better horses going a mile at Churchill. He went wire-to-wire two back at Keeneland, and that sort of effort would make him tough to beat here; #4 DEMOCRATIC VALUES: Moves back to the dirt after a failed turf experiment last time. A throwback to his early-2021 form would make him a legitimate favorite, but it’s worth noting he’s winless away from Aqueduct; #3 FROSTED INDIAN: Goes back to the right level second off the claim for Linda rice and is better than he showed last time out against a classier group. His wins two and four back were pretty good, and while he probably needs to improve in order to win, it wouldn’t shock me if he hit the board at a nice number.

R3

Brown entry
Peacebethejourney
Evvie Jets

BROWN ENTRY: One of the meet’s top trainers seems to have this field surrounded. #1 COALITION BUILDING drops in for a tag and has run up against a number of next-out winners in the maiden special weight ranks, while #1A FEDERALIST PAPERS adds blinkers for her New York debut; #5 PEACEBETHEJOURNEY: Didn’t run poorly in her debut, when she was second and claimed by a solid outfit. The pedigree says she’ll stretch out, and improvement could be on the horizon at second asking; #9 EVVIE JETS: Gets Lasix for the first time second off the bench and was fourth behind a next-out winner in her first try since November. Javier Castellano sees fit to ride back for Tony Dutrow, and those two don’t team up much.

R4

Ready A. P.
Run Curtis Run
Coinage

#5 READY A. P.: Goes against the boys in the Rick Violette and strikes me as the one to beat. She was professional in her debut win, when she stormed home to win by more than eight lengths, and the recent July 15th workout jumps off the page; #1 RUN CURTIS RUN: Is one of two Mike Maker trainees in this field and overcame a bit of a slow start to win his debut. His recent bullet drill here was the fastest of 139 half-mile moves that morning, so it sure seems like he’s moving forward; #3 COINAGE: May very well go off favored given his pedigree, but I have my doubts. I simply don’t think he beat much last time, and he’ll likely be far too short a price for me to recommend. If he beats me, I’ll live with it.

R5

Raffinity
Gallina
Live in Five

#7 RAFFINITY: Takes a big drop in class and looms large in what looks like one of the weakest races you’ll see for this level. She was second last time out going a mile and a sixteenth downstate, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back; #5 GALLINA: Responded to the drop to this level with a late-running second, and this barn is off to a strong start at this stand. Saez rides back, and she’d benefit from a faster-than-expected early pace; #4 LIVE IN FIVE: Makes her career debut here, and it certainly seems like she couldn’t have asked for a softer spot. She’s worked steadily downstate, and while this barn’s runners usually need a race, I just can’t see a reason to trust those who have run before other than the top two.

R6

Let’s Be Clear
Take the Backroads
G Money Liv

#6 LET’S BE CLEAR: Was 4/5 in her debut at Churchill and did everything but win, as her late rally came just a head short. She showed some maturity that day, and Brad Cox can certainly move second-time starters forward; #10 TAKE THE BACKROADS: Exits that same race and was third, just a neck back of the winner. The outside draw can be a real boon to younger horses, and if you like my top pick, you sort of have to pay attention to this one, too; #1 G MONEY LIV: Has been working very well ahead of her career unveiling and may be good enough to overcome the inside draw. Her works at Churchill Downs were consistently in the upper tier of times on those days, and Luis Saez landed here when he probably had several options.

R7

Prime Time Player (MTO)
Amistad
Absam

#5 AMISTAD: Ran well enough two starts ago to merit a long look at a big price. He was second against a similar group, didn’t have a great trip last time out, and will be reunited with top turf pilot Jose Lezcano for this event; #7 ABSAM: Runs for a claiming tag for the first time and wasn’t disgraced in a pair of tries against allowance foes at Churchill. I don’t think he beat a lot in his lone victory, but he’s run well enough often enough to be a legitimate favorite here; #4 JUSTINTIMEFORWINE: Has been caught multiple times going two turns, but gets a massive jockey switch and sure looks like the main speed. The inner turf course often rewards those with early zip, and it wouldn’t stun me if this one got comfortable up front going into the first turn.

R8

Shiraz
Three Outlaws
Alphalfa

#6 SHIRAZ: Returns to Saratoga and has run very well at this route several times. He broke from a tough post last time at Belmont, but draws a bit more favorably and should sit a perfect stalking trip; #10 THREE OUTLAWS: Hasn’t run a poor race since going to the Rob Atras barn in the spring, and he exits a strong second against similar company. The far outside post isn’t ideal, but he’s won here before and is certainly in good form; #4 ALPHALFA: Ships back to New York for this state-bred event after spending most of this season in Illinois and Indiana. Indiana’s races have gotten considerably tougher over the past few years, and he won one of them two back with a solid 79 Beyer Speed Figure.

R9

Forza Di Oro
Core Beliefs
Highest Honors

#2 FORZA DI ORO: Makes his 2021 debut off a long layoff and has flashed considerable talent. He won the Grade 3 Discovery back in November with a 101 Beyer Speed Figure and has been working steadily for Hall of Fame conditioner Bill Mott; #4 CORE BELIEFS: Has multiple graded stakes wins on his resume and goes second off the bench here. He was one-paced in his 2021 debut, but he had every right to need that tightener and exits a five-furlong bullet drill on July 14th; #3 HIGHEST HONORS: Stepped forward after a two-back clunker to cruise home in an optional claimer downstate. He’ll get support off of that race, especially given his connections, but I just don’t think he beat much in that race and I feel like he’ll be overbet.

R10

Generazio entry
Fast Gordon
Distractandattack

GENERAZIO ENTRY: I prefer #1 MOMMIE’S JEWEL, who goes second off the bench and ran well in his first start since August. I’m expecting a move forward here, especially since Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride back; #4 FAST GORDON: Came on late in a race without much early zip and finished just a length behind the winner. I’d be more enthusiastic about his chances had the runner-up run a more inspired race during the meet’s first week; #9 DISTRACTANDATTACK: Comes back to the turf, and you can draw a line through the last-out clunker over Belmont’s sloppy main track. His two and three-back efforts were competitive, and it certainly seems like he’ll be prominent early in what appears to be a wide-open finale.