SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/19/19)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $895

There are a ton of jobs on the front side of a racetrack that I would really enjoy. Racing Secretary is not one of them. Everyone lines up to bash the racing office when a card isn’t to their liking, and rarely are they praised for doing the dirty work necessary to fill fields in tough environments.

I don’t envy the position the office has been in ahead of certain graded stakes races. For instance, Friday’s Lake George drew a six-horse field. Three of the entrants are trained by Chad Brown, and two are trained by Wesley Ward. When the balance of power in certain divisions is tilted so heavily to a few particular barns, it creates a tricky situation.

Is it ideal, from the perspective of a racing fan, to have horses in those divisions running less because of who trains them? Of course not. Are racing offices to blame for that? No. Keep this in mind the next time you’re tempted to complain about short fields. In these instances, don’t rush to blame tracks or track management. There are other situations I’ll address where they get shorter leashes, but on this, I give them a pass.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: The fifth race was taken off the turf, so our Pick Four play was cancelled.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll dive right back into the early Pick Four, which starts in the second race. My 50-cent ticket is as follows: 3,6,7 with 5,7,10 with 1,3 with 2,6. Additionally, I’ll play $3 doubles starting in the third race that use #5 DOLL and #7 PLINK FREUD with #1 JAVELIN and #3 SHAREHOLDER VALUE in the fourth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

– – – – –

BEST BET: Bourbon Mission, Race 1
LONGSHOT: Cape Angel, Race 7

R1

Bourbon Mission
Lorcan
Legion Storm

#5 BOURBON MISSION: Drops in for a tag for the first time and catches what seems like a weaker-than-average group for the level. Pletcher does well with similar droppers, and he seems like the one to beat; #6 LORCAN: Just missed last time out, and has been gelded since that event. He tries two turns for the first time, but he has a right to handle such a journey being by Mineshaft; #3 LEGION STORM: Makes his first start off the claim by Rob Atras, whose barn has been going very well. He’s 0-for-11, but does have a right to improve in new surroundings.

R2

Carrizo
First Forever
Destiny Over Fate

#6 CARRIZO: Drops in class first off the claim for an astute barn that’s off to a strong start to the meet. If she brings her Churchill form to Saratoga, she’s going to be a formidable favorite; #3 FIRST FOREVER: Has hit the board in each of her last five starts, two of which were winning efforts. She goes from one strong conditioner to another and could sit a perfect stalking trip; #7 DESTINY OVER FATE: Has been aggressively spotted and may have found the right level. She splashed home to a win in the slop two back and could benefit from the outside draw.

R3

Plink Freud
Doll
Blame It On Mom (MTO)

#7 PLINK FREUD: Comes back to the maiden ranks after a failed try in a stakes race last month. Her race two back was very good, and her debut effort at this route last summer wasn’t bad; #5 DOLL: Has shown ample speed in two prior starts and tries turf for the first time. The surface is an unknown, but based on Beyer Speed Figures, she’s probably the one to beat; #10 TATTERAZZI: Doesn’t draw particularly well in her debut, but she’s bred up and down for turf and comes in off of a few solid workouts. She’s got a shot to hit the board at a price. DIRT SELECTIONS: DOLL, BLAME IT ON MOM, NASTY AFFAIR.

R4

Javelin
Shareholder Value
Bolita Boyz

#1 JAVELIN: Just missed against similar-level foes downstate, but gets back to his favorite distance at a track he’s won at before. The rail draw isn’t ideal, but there should be plenty of speed here to set up for his late kick; #3 SHAREHOLDER VALUE: Benefited from a perfect trip last time out, when he earned a big Beyer in romping over weaker opposition. A similar effort would make him tough, but this seems like a tougher spot; #7 BOLITA BOYZ: Figures to be running well late and gets the services of Irad Ortiz, Jr. The faster they go early, the more this one figures to like it.

R5

Finite
Kiawah Sunset
Sweet Kisses

#6 FINITE: Fetched $200,000 at auction and is bred to be a runner. Her dam is a full sister to graded stakes-winner Tapiture, and she’s been working well ahead of her unveiling; #2 KIAWAH SUNSET: Ran well in her debut and was probably the victim of a horrible post in her last start. Dirt is a bit of an unknown, but a repeat of her debut effort gives her a shot at a bit of a price; #8 SWEET KISSES: Chased the eventual Schuylerville runner-up in her debut last month and seems to have bounced out of that race well. She’ll likely be on the lead early, which could make her dangerous.

R6

Soul Fight (MTO)
Clear for Action
Cross Border

#7 CLEAR FOR ACTION: Has won three of his last four starts and steps up in class for a barn that can move horses up off the claim. He has tactical speed, but doesn’t necessarily need the lead to run well; #11 CROSS BORDER: Ran well off of a long layoff last time out and stretches out to two turns. This may be a hair further than he wants to go, but his comeback race was very encouraging; #1 TACTICAL PURSUIT: Has won two of his last three starts and has back class to spare. He hasn’t run on turf in a while, but he’s won over the surface before and merits a look in the exotics. DIRT SELECTIONS: SOUL FIGHT, TACTICAL PURSUIT, HE IZ GONE.

R7

Turco Bravo (MTO)
Pillar Mountain
Cape Angel

#9 PILLAR MOUNTAIN: Rallied from way back to prevail at this distance last time out. He was a solid second at this route last summer and seems to have moved forward since then; #2 CAPE ANGEL: Has back races that would make him a contender in this spot. He won here twice last summer and is eligible to fire a big shot second off the bench; #10 CRACKSPEED: Wired the field going long last time out at Belmont and seems like this race’s main speed. That running style can be dangerous in these turf marathons, especially for capable connections like these. DIRT SELECTIONS: TURCO BRAVO, CRACKSPEED, MIDNIGHT TEA TIME.

R8

Engage
Seven Trumpets
He Hate Me

#2 ENGAGE: Makes his 2019 debut and has been working well ahead of his first start in 10 months. He tried deep waters last year, and if he’s ready to run, he’ll be very tough to fend off; #1 SEVEN TRUMPETS: Was campaigned aggressively a season ago, but hit his stride around one turn in the summer and fall months. Six furlongs may be a hair short for him, and the layoff and rail draw are both concerns, but he’s fired three straight bullets ahead of this event; #6 HE HATE ME: Was edged by a talented sprinter last month at Churchill and would benefit from fast early fractions. His work over the Oklahoma track on July 13th was very good, and he could conceivably rally for a piece of it.

R9

Blowout
The Mackem Bullet
Dogtag

#7 BLOWOUT: Has yet to run a bad race, with two wins and two seconds in four career starts. She was beaten just a half-length by the ultra-talented Concrete Rose back in March, and she’s improved with every start; #2 THE MACKEM BULLET: Has won two of three since going to the Wesley Ward barn and was Group 1-placed in Europe. Her win in the Grade 2 Appalachian at Keeneland was very good, and we may get an overlaid price given the trio of Chad Brown trainees she’ll line up against; #4 DOGTAG: Came back running in an ungraded stakes race at Pimlico in May and returns to the graded ranks here. She won the P.G. Johnson here a season ago and figures to be running well late.

R10

Ranger Up
Final Say
Super Silver

#6 RANGER UP: Takes the biggest drop in racing, from a maiden special weight to a maiden claimer, and looms large for powerhouse connections. Based on company kept and Beyer numbers, he’s strictly the one to beat; #5 FINAL SAY: Could very well comprise half of a Todd Pletcher-trained exacta in the Friday finale. He was second in his first start for a tag last time out and may appreciate two turns given his running style; #4 SUPER SILVER: Ran fairly well two back when third against similar foes at Churchill. A return to dirt could help him, and he’ll likely be a pretty big price.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/18/19)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $895

There are times where I don’t get Twitter. Tuesday night, I tweeted a link to my picks and analysis (as a reminder, those are available at AndrewChampagne.com every racing day, as are my bankroll plays/blurbs). It was responded to by another user, who said, and I quote, “no one gives a **** what you think.” I went to see who it was…and it turns out he followed me (prior to me hitting the always-handy “block” button, of course).

To review: Someone who followed me saw my tweet, read it, likely clicked on my analysis, and then took the time to tell me that nobody cares what I think. Something sure seems backwards here, doesn’t it?

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: This section didn’t make it into print due to a printing error (though it was online Monday night, much to the delight of my intern at the chiropractic college where I work!). We had $10 to win and place on Project Whiskey in the fifth, and while she ran OK at a price, she could only manage a third-place finish. We dropped $20.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: This is tough, because we don’t know if they’ll be on the turf. Assuming they are (and with the usual caveat that all bets in this section assume turf races stay there), I’ll play the early Pick Four, which starts in the second race. I’ll play it for a dollar (as opposed to the 50-cent minimum), and my ticket looks like this: 2,4,6,7 with 3 with 2,7,9 with 4,8.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24

– – – – –

BEST BET: Fierce Lady, Race 3
LONGSHOT: Roaming Union, Race 9

R1

Senor Jobim
Golden Tiger
Smile Bryan

#2 SENOR JOBIM: May have just hated Belmont Park, where he didn’t sit his preferred trip. A wet track is likely, and he’s run well over such surfaces in the past; #4 GOLDEN TIGER: Has run well twice at Churchill Downs and has a win over this tricky seven-furlong distance. When Al Stall comes in, he usually means business, and Rosario signing on is a plus; #5 SMILE BRYAN: May need to take a step forward to win, but has the right running style for a race full of early speed. The faster they go early, the more this one figures to like it.

R2

Justintimeforwine
Beyond Gone
Jamflowman

#6 JUSTINTIMEFORWINE: Is the only one in here with any experience and comes in off of a bullet drill here a few days ago. This barn’s horses often need a race to get going, and he may be a bit of a price; #2 BEYOND GONE: Has a series of solid works out of town and sold for a solid $40,000 despite a modest pedigree. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because this barn’s numbers with debuting runners aren’t great; #7 JAMFLOWMAN: Debuts for a conditioner who has quietly had a very strong year to this point. He draws well, and both of his dam’s other offspring are winners.

R3

Fierce Lady
Time Limit
Jewel of Arabia

#3 FIERCE LADY: Debuted with a very strong performance downstate where she stopped the timer in :56 and change for five furlongs. Simply put, if she repeats that performance, the race is for second; #6 TIME LIMIT: Was also impressive in victory in her unveiling, though that race didn’t come back as highly-rated as my top pick’s debut. She’s certainly eligible to improve at second asking; #2 JEWEL OF ARABIA: Is ambitiously spotted in her debut, but she fetched $140,000 at auction and debuts for a hot barn. She could be ready enough to hit the board at a square price.

R4

Chief Know It All (MTO)
Everyonelovesjames
He’s No Lemon

#7 EVERYONELOVESJAMES: Has come to hand for Jonathan Sheppard, winning two in a row downstate against state-breds. This is certainly a class test, but he seems like the lone speed, which is always dangerous in turf marathons; #2 HE’S NO LEMON: Hasn’t run a bad race this year and comes in off of a race where he earned a 92 Beyer Speed Figure. He’s got experience at the distance and should be running well late; #9 EXTRAORDINARY JERRY: Handled additional distance pretty well when third at this level last time out. He hasn’t won on turf in a while, but the possibility of a perfect stalking trip is enticing. DIRT SELECTIONS: CHIEF KNOW IT ALL, EXTRAORDINARY JERRY, MILLS.

R5

City Man (MTO)
Barleewon
More Like It

#4 BARLEEWON: Is bred up and down for turf and has worked well ahead of his debut. This doesn’t seem like the strongest field for the level, so he may not have to be much to win right away; #8 MORE LIKE IT: Is worth a look based on his strong turf pedigree. He has a few strong works downstate and is a candidate to run well at a price; #10 FLY FLY AWAY: Is a half-brother to world-class turf sprinter Disco Partner and debuts here for the Clement barn. He merits respect based on his pedigree, but the post position is a big concern. DIRT SELECTIONS: CITY MAN, TURBO DRIVE, SHANDIAN.

R6

Smooth With a Kick
Hightailing
Kelleycanrun

#4 SMOOTH WITH A KICK: Was up close to a face pace last time out, and she should get a much easier trip here. She’s taken steps forward in each of her starts, and a front-running trip going two turns should suit her; #3 HIGHTAILING: Ran well twice earlier this year before throwing in a clunker at Belmont. She’s bred to like two turns, so a return to form is certainly possible; #2 KELLEYCANRUN: Made a bit of a move last time out going shorter for a trainer whose firsters often need a race to get going. She certainly seems like a candidate to improve.

R7

Seven Is Heaven
Alphastest
Wicked Grin

#10 ALPHASTEST: Got caught going seven furlongs last time out, but this shorter trip should be more to his liking. The outside post isn’t ideal, but he could make an easy lead and clear most (or all) of the field pretty quickly; #12 WICKED GRIN: Is another that got burned by the draw, but he drops way down in class for this maiden claiming event. He’s got enough past form to suggest he could overcome the tough post; #4 BETSY’S BEAU: Merits inclusion at a big price. He goes to turf, which he’s bred to handle, and he drops in class for a trainer whose horses often improve with experience.

R8

Brown entry
Opry
Phoenix entry

BROWN ENTRY: I prefer #2B VALUE PROPOSITION, who tired in the Grade 3 Pennine Ridge after smashing maiden foes at first asking. #2 SPIRIT ANIMAL also seems well-meant off the bench, and he graduated here last summer; #7 OPRY: Won the Grade 3 With Anticipation here in 2018 and recently returned from a long layoff. His race off the break was very good, and a step forward would make him formidable; PHOENIX ENTRY: #1 KADAR makes his American debut and gets Lasix, while #1A MAGNIFICENT MCCOOL has back class and may be tough if this gets rained off the turf. DIRT SELECTIONS: MAGNIFICENT MCCOOL, OPRY, TAPIT WISE.

R9

Hofburg
Roaming Union
Vincento

#2 HOFBURG: Makes his 2019 debut after a star-crossed 3-year-old campaign where he placed in a pair of Grade 1 races. He’s been training well, should get a setup for his late-running style, and would be tough if he’s fully-cranked; #6 ROAMING UNION: Stretches back out to a two-turn route of ground, and his best races have come at such configurations. This barn is sending out live horses, and while Hofburg would be formidable if he’s ready, maybe he needs a race; #5 VINCENTO: Gets wheeled back quickly by Linda Rice after a win on opening day. He got a perfect setup that day, but he should be on or near the lead early at a price.

R10

Drawing Away entry (MTO)
Sadie Lady
Merlins Muse

#11 SADIE LADY: Has shown plenty of early zip in three turf starts, and that would come in handy here given the outside post and likely race shape. Joel Rosario rides back, and I think she could wire this group; #8 MERLINS MUSE: Has a win at this route and comes in off another victory downstate. John Velazquez doesn’t ride a ton for this barn, but when he does, his mounts are usually live; #7 MAMA MARY: Has won two of her last three starts, including a turf sprint at Belmont last month. Her two turf efforts have both been solid, and she could sit a nice stalking trip just off the speed. DIRT SELECTIONS: DRAWING AWAY ENTRY, CAMORRA, MAMA MARY.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/17/19)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $915

One of the perks of my full-time job at the marketing department of a chiropractic college is the ability to receive adjustments from upperclassmen at the on-campus health clinic. My intern got back from a trip to Australia and New Zealand to adjust me for the first time in a few weeks, and he asked me if there were any additional sources of stress in my life.

I thought to myself, “I’m in constant pursuit of Liam Durbin, I’m 0-for-4 in my bankroll section, and I’m repeatedly trying to prove certain people wrong by thriving when they’d rather I fail.” Instead, I simply said, “I’m doing a lot more writing about horse racing at Saratoga this summer.”

I was in no hurry to talk his ear off about my passion, so I didn’t go into much depth. Regardless of whether he initially thought I was being forthcoming or not, though, I think he got the idea when he adjusted my neck and every bone from my skull to my shoulder blades breathed a collective sigh of relief.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Right idea, wrong horse. A closer did indeed win the seventh, but it wasn’t Zonic (third) or Cerretalto (fourth), so my exacta tickets went up in smoke.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I love the 2-year-old races on today’s card, and my action will focus on the fifth. My longshot of the day is #6 PROJECT WHISKEY, and I’ll keep things simple with a $10 win/place bet.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

– – – – –

BEST BET: Talk Veuve to Me, Race 9
LONGSHOT: Project Whiskey, Race 5

R1

Markhan
Renown
Whitman’s Poetry

#3 MARKHAN: Has won three in a row and is undefeated since coming to North America. He seems to be in career form right now, and he looms large as the one to beat in the first steeplechase of the meet; #5 RENOWN: Tossed his rider last time out, but has a solid body of work. Prior to becoming a solid steeplechase horse, he was stakes-placed on the flat and ran third in last year’s John’s Call; #6 WHITMAN’S POETRY: Always seems to fire, but is winless in his last eight starts. He can’t be ignored underneath, but he’s tough to trust on top.

R2

#3 MISSION WRAPITUP: Crushed a field of fellow maidens in his debut and comes in off a very sharp work over this surface. A repeat of his prior race would make him tough in a race named after one of the sport’s good guys; #2 LISTENTOYOURHEART: Led every step of the way in his unveiling and seems like the main speed in here. He boasts the best last-out Beyer Speed Figure in the race and certainly merits respect; #4 SKY OF HOOK: Rallied to win his debut at a price back in May, and in doing so overcame a rough start. He may have learned something from that experience, and it’s encouraging that Luis Saez rides back.

R3

Fully Vested
Pete’s Play Call (MTO)
Discretionary Marq

#9 FULLY VESTED: Took to turf pretty well when second at Monmouth despite a horrible post. He should step forward in his second start off the bench, and he’s displayed plenty of off-track form in the past (which could come in handy here); #7 DISCRETIONARY MARQ: Has come to hand of late, having won four of his last six starts. He came off a long layoff to wire a field at Belmont, and he figures to be prominent early; #4 PAGLIACCI: Topped a field of claimers last time out and makes his first start for new trainer Linda Rice. He could sit a perfect stalking trip here, although the jump up in class is an obstacle. DIRT SELECTIONS: FULLY VESTED, PETE’S PLAY CALL, STORM ADVISORY.

R4

Flat Rate (MTO)
Tricky Magician
Seanow

#12 TRICKY MAGICIAN: Drew terribly for this wide-open event, but does drop in class and should appreciate the two-turn route of ground. Irad Ortiz, Jr., will have his work cut out for him, but this one has hinted at plenty of talent in the past; #3 SEANOW: Broke his maiden here last year and defeated a similar-quality field two back at Belmont. He figures to be the main speed, and he could be dangerous if he’s left alone on the lead; #2 HOPE AGAIN: Rallied to defeat a much weaker group last time out at Monmouth. He’s never missed the board in five career starts and should be moving in the right direction late.

R5

Project Whiskey
Myawaya
Ain’t None Lucky

#6 PROJECT WHISKEY: Comes in from Parx, and it’s always encouraging when an out-of-town trainer brings a jockey in to ride. She’s worked well, and her dam is a half-sister to Ready’s Image, who won a Grade 2 and was second in the Grade 1 Hopeful; #3 MYAWAYA: Goes out for the tandem of Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez and comes in off a big work here last week. Her dam is a half to Grade 2 winner Sharp Humor, and she makes a lot of sense; #2 AIN’T NONE LUCKY: Blew the start in her debut at Laurel, but rallied to finish third behind a talented filly. She could move forward here, and her pedigree says she’d move up over a wet track.

R6

#5 MATZO BELLA: Drops in for a tag after just missing in an allowance event downstate. She’ll likely be flying late, and she hasn’t run a bad race since being claimed by Jason Servis; #2 AVOCADO TOAST: Got nailed at the wire in her first start since February last month. That race came at this level, and she draws favorably in this event; #3 TIPLE: Put it all together last time out in the maiden claiming ranks, where she rallied from way back against a suspect group. She may be putting things together, and this barn is dangerous in turf sprints.

R7

Azrael (MTO)
Border Town
Good Governance

#9 BORDER TOWN: Is one of two in here trained by Chad Brown, and gets my tepid nod in a tough race. He’s been working consistently and is bred to be a good one; #6 GOOD GOVERNANCE: Will likely be favored judging by the morning line and is bred to be a good one. However, there’s a big gap in his works in June, and debuting at two turns isn’t an easy task; #7 EMBELLISHER: Was third in a swiftly-run maiden race at Ellis Park on Independence Day. Speed is dangerous on the inner turf, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he got a perfect trip. DIRT SELECTIONS: AZRAEL, OFF THE RECORD, CORCORAN.

R8

Maiden Beauty
Miss Marcela
Dovey Lovey

#6 MAIDEN BEAUTY: Showed a new dimension when wiring a field of state-breds last month at Belmont. Most importantly, she loves wet tracks, and she may see such a surface in this spot; #5 MISS MARCELA: Comes back to the dirt in her second start for Phil Serpe and merits respect. She won a stakes race earlier this year at Gulfstream and is a contender if she gets back to that form; #3 DOVEY LOVEY: Cuts back in distance and looks a lot better if you draw lines through her route races. She’s run well over a wet track and was third in the Ruthless at Aqueduct this past January.

R9

Talk Veuve to Me
Honor Way
Carrera Cat

#6 TALK VEUVE TO ME: Drops down to the allowance ranks after misfiring in Grade 1 company. Simply put, her best race would thump these, and anything close would still make her very tough; #5 HONOR WAY: Rallied to prevail at Belmont last month and always seems to fire a good shot. Linda Rice has gotten off to a great start this meet, and Jose Ortiz rides back; #2 CARRERA CAT: Has reeled off four wins in a row and gets a major class test. She’ll be flying early; the question is, can she withstand pressure from the likely favorite?

R10

Light in the Sky
Colts Neck entry
Violent Point

#4 LIGHT IN THE SKY: Is bred to be a good one and debuts for the Rice barn. Her dam was a stakes-winner, and she’s already thrown six winners (including 2-year-old stakes-winner Iron Mizz); COLTS NECK ENTRY: #1 STRONGERTHANUKNOW showed speed in her debut, but I prefer #1A SILKY BLUE, who needs some luck to draw in. She fetched $220,000 at auction and is bred to be a strong turf horse; #9 VIOLENT POINT: Was a distant third when favored in her unveiling at Belmont, but she pressed a very fast pace that day and is certainly eligible to improve here.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/14/19)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $943

It would be foolish not to comment on the death of Kentucky Derby and Travers winner Sea Hero, who passed away a few days ago. If you’ve been to Saratoga at all, you’ve seen the statue immortalizing him in the paddock. It would be misleading to say he was an all-time great, but in 1993, he became the first horse in more than 50 years to pull off the Derby-Travers double. Only two other horses have done it since.

With the racing world’s increased focus on, ahem, “brilliance,” pulling off that double may only get harder as the years go by. Horses simply aren’t bred like they used to be, and a relic of a time period when top-tier horses were campaigned aggressively and could handle it is now gone.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Payne was left with too much to do and could only salvage third, which turned exacta and doubles tickets into confetti. We dropped $25.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll turn my attention to the seventh race, which seems like it’s going to set up for a closer. I’ll play #2 ZONIC and #4 CERRETALTO on top of $3 exactas that use those two, #1 SUDDEN SURPRISE, #7 SHAMROCK KID, and #8 BINKSTER underneath. I’ll also box my top two horses in $2 exactas, which puts me in a better position to score if the race falls apart.

TOTAL WAGERED: $28

– – – – –

BEST BET: Positive Skew, Race 5
LONGSHOT: Bohemian Bourbon, Race 9

R1

Sweet Melania
Lucky Jingle
Sign of the Times

#9 SWEET MELANIA: Gets a very tepid nod in a confounding opener. She has an experience edge over her rivals in this spot, and she’s bred to love the two turns she gets here; #3 LUCKY JINGLE: Hails from a barn whose first-time starters often need a race to get going, but has been working well ahead of her debut. Her 311 turf Tomlinson number is solid, and she may be a price; #8 SIGN OF THE TIMES: Debuted last month going two turns, which isn’t easy for a young 2-year-old. She didn’t do much running that day, but she may have gotten something out of that race.

R2

Keeping the Peace
Elios Milos
Bustin to Be Loved

#3 KEEPING THE PEACE: Tries winners for the first time after a sharp win in May at Monmouth. This barn tends to keep horses on the right track, and he could be tough to catch if he makes the lead; #8 ELIOS MILOS: Likely needed his last effort, which came after a layoff of nearly a year. He ran well twice last year before heading to the sidelines, and a return to that form would make him a contender; #2 BUSTIN TO BE LOVED: Tried pretty deep waters last year as a 2-year-old and drops down sharply in class for this event. Maybe he peaked early, but he’s worked well here and merits a look in the exotics at a price.

R3

Bassman Dave (MTO)
Crack Shot
Wild William

#4 CRACK SHOT: Ran very well when second off of a long layoff last month downstate. He was beaten just a length despite making the lead from his far outside post, and he’ll likely get a much easier trip from this post; #3 WILD WILLIAM: Has shown speed in his career and ran reasonably well here in two starts last summer. Luis Saez riding back is certainly encouraging; #9 ADIOS AMIGOS: Rallied a bit last time out and will likely take money here. The post is tough, but top turf rider Leparoux does get the call. DIRT SELECTIONS: BASSMAN DAVE, WILD BOAR, BULWARK.

R4

No Salt
South Africa
Blame the Cake

#8 NO SALT: Fetched $200,000 at auction last summer and has been working well here for Bill Mott, who’s already scored with one 2-year-old this meet as of this writing. The outside draw could allow for some flexibility, and he sure looks like a runner; #7 SOUTH AFRICA: Has kicked it into gear in his last two works at Belmont and attracts Jose Ortiz for his unveiling. The June 30th work looks particularly impressive; #2 BLAME THE CAKE: Hammered for $160,000 earlier this year, and while the pedigree says turf, his steady works on dirt at Churchill Downs are notable.

R5

Positive Skew
Sharpin (MTO)
Free to Fly

#8 POSITIVE SKEW: Takes a gigantic drop in class to run here just two starts after being beaten less than three lengths in a stakes race at Gulfstream. Simply put, if this stays on the turf and she’s right, the race is for second money; #10 FREE TO FLY: Comes back to the claiming ranks after two starts against allowance foes on the mid-Atlantic circuit. Her last start when in for a tag was a win, and this seems like the right level; #12 ZABAVA: Rolled home when dropped way down in class last time out and may be seen as the logical alternative to my top selection. However, the post is a killer, and I don’t think she beat much last month at Belmont. DIRT SELECTIONS: SHARPIN, TAPPANZEE, DESTINY OVER FATE.

R6

Carlisle Belle (MTO)
Fetching
Flush

#4 FETCHING: Rallied to finish third in a race that didn’t have much pace. There seems to be more speed signed on here, and her pedigree hints that she’ll embrace two turns; #5 FLUSH: Was second in that race, but had a perfect trip and got reeled in late. Maybe two turns will help, but I usually don’t like endorsing horses coming off of races like that on top; #10 DOODER: Was off 11 months and almost certainly needed her return race in May at Belmont on dirt. She gets back to her preferred surface, and she graduated over this turf course back in 2017. DIRT SELECTIONS: CARLISLE BELLE, TRI COUNTY ENTRY, HIT A PROVISIONAL.

R7

Zonic
Cerretalto
Binkster

#2 ZONIC: Is a closer in what seems like a race full of early speed. He’s been gelded since his last start, and the fact that he boasts a win in his lone prior start over this surface is a big, big plus; #4 CERRETALTO: Has been off since December, but his 2018 form was quite good. At one point, he reeled off three wins in four starts, and he’s another that may benefit from a fast pace; #8 BINKSTER: Certainly seems like the speed of the speed, and he exits a very fast race for the level. He may make the lead, but the question is, will he have anything left when the field turns for home?

R8

Cap de Creus (MTO)
Catch a Bid
Varenka

#8 CATCH A BID: Debuted with an authoritative score at Belmont, one where she covered the last quarter-mile in less than 23 seconds. I’m not sure what she beat that day, but any progression at all would make her tough to beat; #11 VARENKA: Has been ambitiously-spotted in her career and most recently ran third in the Grade 3 Regret at Churchill Downs. Any speed duel would work to her advantage, but Jose Ortiz will need to work out a trip from a tough post; #3 QUIET DIGNITY: Gets Lasix in her American debut for Chad Brown, who also saddles my top pick. Lasix tends to move European invaders way up, so I think she’s worth consideration. DIRT SELECTIONS: CAP DE CREUS, GODOLPHIN ENTRY, EBULLIENT.

R9

Break Even
Bohemian Bourbon
Lyrical Lady

#4 BREAK EVEN: Is undefeated in five career starts, including a Grade 2 win earlier this year at Churchill. It’s her first time trying turf, but this barn has historically been excellent in turf sprints, and Bridgmohan comes in to ride; #3 BOHEMIAN BOURBON: Is a pace play for me, as she’s a closer in a race full of horses who will go very fast early. Perhaps she isn’t good enough to win, but she figures to be flying late at a big price; #2 LYRICAL LADY: Is bred to like turf, and when she’s good, she’s very good. Her race two back was excellent, and she’s a contender if she can channel that form in this spot.

R10

Mine the Coin
Star of the West
Dark Storm

#8 MINE THE COIN: Takes a big drop in class and has been gelded since his last start. It seems like he’s caught a weak field on the drop, so while the layoff is a slight concern, he still seems like the one to beat; #11 STAR OF THE WEST: Debuts for a trainer who has strong numbers with first-time starters at this level. He’s been working well, and he may not need to be much to pick up a check here; #1 DARK STORM: Didn’t run well at all last time out, but his debut against straight maidens was OK and that day’s rider gets the call here. This is Weaver’s “other” entrant in this race, and I think he’s got two live runners.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/13/19)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $968

Breaking news from Northern California: An army of ducks has escaped captivity and has taken over part of the grandstand at Golden Gate Fields. In a Friday press conference, one of the ducks said this was a revolt against a leader who took a trip to Saratoga without planning to bring back souvenirs for his friends.

While denying that the beloved Saratoga Goose provided any inspiration, the ducks have stated that if their leader is not at his post come mid-August, their conquests could extend to the Northern California fair circuit, Grants Pass, and possibly even a casino or two in Reno. If any of you see or hear this leader in your travels, please ensure that this message is received. Additionally, if he has not bought himself or his father a copy of The Pink Sheet, guilt-trip him into doing so.

(Hi, Matt!)

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Our Pick Four play was cancelled due to races coming off the turf. What was left were the doubles to Lotta Ott, who was shuffled back a bit early and checked in fourth. As such, we dropped $12.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the 10th race and attempt to extract some value out of my best bet of the day. That’s #5 PAYNE, who I’ll key in $5 exactas on top of #4 UBER KIRK, #7 RULER OF THE NILE, and #8 HERSH. Additionally, I’ll play $5 doubles that start there and use #7 PROGNOSTICATION and #8 PATRIOT DRIVE in the finale.

TOTAL WAGERED: $25

– – – – –

BEST BET: Payne, Race 10
LONGSHOT: Kazmania, Race 7

R1

She’s Not Bluffing
Win the Shake
Warm

#10 SHE’S NOT BLUFFING: Took a big step forward when she won by daylight last time out at Belmont. She tries winners for the first time, but this doesn’t hit me as a great field for the level; #5 WIN THE SHAKE: Likely needed her most recent start off of a four-month layoff. She showed some potential in two starts earlier this year at Aqueduct and adds blinkers for this event; #9 WARM: Takes a big drop in class after showing enough to try stakes company earlier this year. If she channels her Tampa form, she’ll be tough, but the drop is large enough that it raises eyebrows.

R2

Mike’s Girl
Prisoner’s Dilemma
Mz Seb Pat

#3 MIKE’S GIRL: Did everything but win when second at this level last time out at Belmont. She figures to be the main speed, and the cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs could be what she needs to find the winner’s circle; #2 PRISONER’S DILEMMA: Drops in for a tag for the first time and should relish the class relief. Her race two back at Aqueduct was very good, and a repeat of that effort would make her a major player; #9 MZ SEB PAT: Has run well at this level twice this season and should be moving well late. The post position is a concern, but they should be going pretty quickly early on, which could help.

R3

By Your Side
Cucina
Tomato Bill

#5 BY YOUR SIDE: Prevailed in a blanket finish at first asking at Churchill, and that race came back fine figures-wise. The outside post should be a big help, and it could ensure a perfect stalking trip; #3 CUCINA: Rallied in the slop to graduate last time out and may very well be favored here. He’s hinted at talent, but the slop may have moved him up, and such conditions may not be present here; #4 TOMATO BILL: Graduated at first asking at Delaware Park and sports a series of recent five-furlong drills here. He seems like the main speed, but this is a much tougher field than what he faced first time out.

R4

Zyramid
Irked
High Tide

#6 ZYRAMID: Showed plenty of speed in his debut, when he was third behind a next-out winner. His experience should help him, and it’s tough to imagine him being outsprinted early; #3 IRKED: Has worked well ahead of his debut and merits respect at a bit of a price. He’s by War Front, and his dam and second dam both won stakes races as 2-year-olds, so it wouldn’t be stunning if he was ready to run right away; #1 HIGH TIDE: Debuts for Pletcher and Velazquez and sports several solid local workouts. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s due to the rail draw, which isn’t ideal for a first-time starter.

R5

Sinwaan (MTO)
Turf War
Paper Clip

#7 TURF WAR: Gets a tepid nod in what hit me as a confounding turf sprint. Her form overseas was fine, and Europeans getting Lasix in American debuts are always worth a look, especially when they run for powerhouse connections like these; #2 PAPER CLIP: Was sharp in victory last time out at Churchill and faces winners for the first time here. She’s improved in each of her four career starts, and she’ll likely show speed from her inside post; ENTRY: Of the coupled runners, I prefer #1A NOBLE FREUD, who’s won here before. She’s another with early zip, but the layoff is a significant concern. DIRT SELECTIONS: SINWAAN, NOBLE FREUD, OUR CIRCLE OF LOVE.

R6

Enforceable
Field Pass
Decorated Invader

#4 ENFORCEABLE: Has run reasonably well in two sprints and gets two turns, which he’s bred to love. He’s a full brother to multiple graded stakes-winner Mohaymen, who did his best work going long, and with his 300 turf Tomlinson rating, the surface shouldn’t be a problem; #3 FIELD PASS: Rallied to finish second in his debut at Churchill despite a slow early pace. The pace situation is unclear here as well, but improvement is logical at second asking; #2 DECORATED INVADER: Fetched $200,000 at auction and sports a solid series of local drills ahead of his unveiling. This barn isn’t necessarily known for precocious 2-year-olds, but he’s bred to go long, which should help. DIRT SELECTIONS: ENFORCEABLE, GHOST OF THE MAMBO, PLETCHER ENTRY.

R7

Red Zinger
Lutsky
Kazmania

#8 RED ZINGER: Cuts back in distance after fading to sixth in his first try against winners. He’s been firing bullets over the Oklahoma track, and this six-furlong trip seems like the one he wants; #7 LUTSKY: Makes his first start for new trainer Jorge Navarro and has shown early zip in the past. Navarro can move horses up with the best of them, and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., can’t be ignored; #3 KAZMANIA: Merits a look in the exotics at a big price. He was third at this level downstate in his first start since January and should be running well late.

R8

Peaceful
First Wave
Miss You Blues

#6 PEACEFUL: Missed the break in her debut at Monmouth, but still rallied to finish a good second. She doesn’t seem to catch a strong field for this level, and any step forward under Castellano would make her tough; #7 FIRST WAVE: Is bred up and down for turf and ran OK when second in an off-the-turf event back in May. This is likely what she wants to do, and she may be good enough to overcome the outside post; #5 MISS YOU BLUES: Adds blinkers after checking in third at this level at Belmont. She was wide last time out, and the slight cutback in distance could work to her advantage.

R9

Rushing Fall
Homerique
Sistercharlie

#2 RUSHING FALL: Has lost just once in nine career starts, and this trip should hit her right between the eyes. She has plenty of speed, but doesn’t necessarily need the lead, which could come in handy given the speed directly to her outside; #6 HOMERIQUE: Went 2-for-2 at Belmont after shipping in from Europe and certainly merits respect. She overcame slow early paces in both of those events, and if there’s any hesitation here, it’s only because she may want a hair longer than she’ll go here; #4 SISTERCHARLIE: Comes back off a long layoff to get her campaign started in a race she won a season ago. The break is a major concern, as is the likely pace scenario. At her best, she probably wins, but if there’s ever a spot to go against her, it’s now.

R10

Payne
Uber Kirk
Ruler of the Nile

#5 PAYNE: Has yet to run a bad race, and was most recently second behind the classy Rowayton in a swiftly-run allowance at Belmont. He’ll be running well late in a race with plenty of speed signed on, which could make him very tough; #4 UBER KIRK: Has run four solid races in a row and seems to be hitting his peak as a 4-year-old. His win two back going a mile was solid, and he’s another that will be making one run as they turn for home; #7 RULER OF THE NILE: May not have lived up to the $1 million price tag he hammered for back in 2017, but he’s won three of his last four starts and has shown plenty of early zip. He won here last summer, and I think he’s one to use in the exotics at a big price.

R11

Shareholder Value (MTO)
Prognostication
Patriot Drive

#7 PROGNOSTICATION: Has not missed the board in four local starts and almost certainly needed his last-out clunker off of a long layoff. He takes a big drop in class and looms large in this spot; #8 PATRIOT DRIVE: Has won two in a row at this level since being moved to the Danny Gargan barn. He’s come to hand over Belmont’s one-turn configuration, but he does have a two-turn turf win to his credit from early-2018 at Fair Grounds; #11 BATTLE OF BLENHEIM: Held on last time out after making a big middle move in a race without much early speed. The post position is unfortunate, but his best could very well be good enough. DIRT SELECTIONS: SHAREHOLDER VALUE, CONQUEROR, GRAY SKY.