BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,963.75

2024’s closing day has a new meaning for me. Fourteen months ago, I didn’t know if I’d ever be back doing this again. Getting my freelance horse racing work back has given me a new perspective fueled by gratitude.

As always, thanks to the folks at The Saratogian for having me back. If you think it’s easy producing three sports sections a day (The Saratogian, The Troy Record, and The Pink Sheet), try it sometime. In addition, thanks to Raketech, which hired me in November to run the Winners and Whiners website and allows me to produce content like this.

Finally, and most importantly, thank you to you, the reader. I’m incredibly fortunate to have the audience I have, and I’ll even include the few trolls who hate-read my stuff (pro tip, everyone: The opposite of love isn’t hate, it’s indifference). My website shattered traffic records this meet, and, as with everything else I’ve mentioned, I’m very grateful. Let’s finish with a bang!

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: “They knew” about Montalcino, who took tons of late money in the opener and proved best. Hurricane Nelson tired to third, and I dropped $50.

MONDAY’S PLAY: We’ll finish 39 straight days of action in the seventh, where I need to bet #3 FRIEND OFTHE DEVIL after a nightmare trip in his debut. I’ll have a $50 win bet on that one, and I’ll have a $10 cold double starting with Friend Ofthe Devil and ending with #5 ARZAK in the eighth (the Harvey Pack).

TOTAL WAGERED: $60.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Friend Ofthe Devil, Race 7
Longshot: Studlydoright, Race 10

R1

Military Road
Elko County
Daily Grind

#4 MILITARY ROAD (1/2): Isn’t the easiest short-priced favorite to trust, but is a speed-figure standout in the closing day opener. It simply seems like he’s been running against much better, and I think they’ll have him to catch turning for home; #3 ELKO COUNTY (7/2): Was second in an off-the-turf race here not long ago and would benefit from any sort of battle up front. He’s been at this level quite a while, but he’s another that’s run in some strong races for the level; #5 DAILY GRIND (9/2): Gets a big rider switch to Luis Saez and has a right to improve for that reason. His connections thought enough of him to run in the Sir Barton earlier this year, and honestly, someone has to run third.

R2

Disco Star
Marvelous Madison
Dancing Dakotah

#11 DISCO STAR (9/5): Ran well to be second in her debut and has a right to take a step forward here, provided she draws in off the AE list. She rallied from ninth that day, and closing kicks like that aren’t often seen in debuting horses still figuring things out; #2 MARVELOUS MADISON (8/5): Debuts for Chad Brown and has an all-turf pedigree. This daughter of Caravaggio is out of a productive mare that’s already thrown five winners out of six foals to race; #5 DANCING DAKOTAH (10-1): Was one-paced in her July unveiling but adds blinkers at second asking for a high-percentage outfit. Her most recent work wasn’t bad, and I think there’s reason to be optimistic about a horse that figures to be a price.

R3

Concerti
Spiritual Lady
Roman Goddess

#1 CONCERTI (5/2): Takes a big drop in class for aggressive connections after fading in her last three starts (two on turf). I think coming back to dirt will help, as will waters that certainly look much more shallow than the ones she’s been swimming in lately; #7 SPIRITUAL LADY (6-1): Was claimed after her last-out score by a barn that doesn’t reach in for a tag very often. I’m not sure what she beat that day, but she’s got plenty of tactical speed and could be on the upswing in the back half of her 3-year-old season; #4 ROMAN GODDESS (8/5): Is a class-dropper and will likely take plenty of betting money, but she has no recent wins on her sheet and doesn’t seem to have moved forward following a claim back in February. Returning to this level may help her, but I think she’ll be overbet.

R4

Heard On Thestreet
Stormquist
Paschal Moon

#2 HEARD ON THESTREET (5/2): Was claimed by Linda Rice last time out, and while that barn’s gone a bit cold to end the meet, this gelding was a strong second at this level last time out and merits respect. Irad Ortiz, Jr., hops aboard, and a repeat of the last-out effort may be enough to beat these; #8 STORMQUIST (4-1): Dueled through very fast fractions in his last start and may not need to go so quickly early to get positioning here. He hasn’t won in quite a while, but his springtime efforts downstate weren’t bad at all; #4 PASCHAL MOON (8-1): Came with a bit of a rally last time out and would benefit from any sort of speed duel up front. He’s one of only a few in here that’s shown an interest in passing others late, and he could very well clunk up for a piece of it.

R5

Ichiban (MTO)
Prerequisite
Promiseher America

#2 PREREQUISITE (8/5): Has been off over a year but comes back for a trainer who’s as good as anyone at getting comebackers ready to go. She won last year’s Grade 2 Wonder Again and was second in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks before going to the sidelines, and this seems like a soft spot for her 2024 debut; #6 PROMISEHER AMERICA (8-1): Comes back to the turf here, and her only race on the grass to date wasn’t bad. She was a close-up second two starts ago at Laurel, and her tactical speed could prove to be an asset; #5 DREAMING OF MO (10-1): Didn’t have a great trip in her local debut after a few solid races at Churchill Downs. She cuts back to what could be a more friendly distance, and channeling the Kentucky form would give her a chance at a price.

R6

One Vision
Omaha Pistol
Hit the Post

#9 ONE VISION (4-1): Debuted with a solid second last time out for a barn whose first-time starters usually need a race to get going. That day’s winner, Pay the Juice, has some potential, and this one could be sitting on a move forward in a race against many inexperienced rivals; #3 OMAHA PISTOL (3-1): Debuts for Jeremiah Englehart and has a work on August 11th that jumps off the page. Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride, and while seven furlongs is a tough first-out distance, this gelding may be good enough to do so; #1 HIT THE POST (5-1): Has been working steadily here for a barn that’s enjoyed some success at this stand. Second dam Intangaroo was a top-notch mare with three Grade 1 wins to her credit, and sire Kantharos has been known to produce precocious offspring.

R7

Friend Ofthe Devil
Rock Star Rebel
Daytona Gold

#3 FRIEND OFTHE DEVIL (9/2): Is a betback after a nightmare trip in his debut last month. He got crushed at the start before suddenly rushing up to contest the pace. Naturally, he faded late. Any reasonable trip, combined with the seasoning he gained in that unveiling, should move him forward considerably; #11 ROCK STAR REBEL (5/2): Is another that didn’t break well last time out. He was one-paced that day, but Dylan Davis is set to ride back if he draws in off the AE list, and that hints at some confidence here; #8 DAYTONA GOLD (3-1): Hammered for $150,000 earlier this season and has been working steadily for trainer Ken McPeek. This outfit doesn’t usually rush its first-time starters, but there’s reason to believe he may have some potential.

R8

Arzak
Surveillance
Souper Quest

#5 ARZAK (7/5): Has been running against much, much better horses and gets significant class relief in the Harvey Pack. Most recently, he was third behind the talented Nothing Better at Monmouth, and he was second behind a record-setting performance from Cogburn in the Grade 1 Jaipur; #3 SURVEILLANCE (10-1): Has thrived up here this summer, with two wins in as many starts. Most recently, he won the off-the-turf Troy, but his two-back turf effort was a very good one, and we may get a price on a horse that clearly loves the Spa; #6 SOUPER QUEST (3-1): Sure looks like the speed of the speed and has yet to run a bad race in eight lifetime outings. He’s never been worse than third, and his wire-to-wire win here in July was a sharp effort.

R9

It’s Hot in Here
Dea Matrona
Sizzle

#4 IT’S HOT IN HERE (5/2) and #6 DEA MATRONA (7/2): It makes sense to discuss them both together, as they’re both coming from the Chad Brown barn and ran 1-2 separated by just a neck last time out. Either could win, but I slightly prefer the former, especially given that that one made up a bit more ground last time; #12 SIZZLE (6-1): Needs some luck to draw in, but I’ve liked her a few times this meet and think she could be a factor here. She’s never run a bad one to date and should have some pace to chase if she’s able to give it a go here.

R10

Ferocious
Studlydoright
Chancer McPatrick

#2 FEROCIOUS (8/5): Looked like a monster in his debut, when he cruised home clear by nearly eight lengths and earned massive speed figures across the board. This barn isn’t a high-percentage one with debuting runners, so it’s telling that this one was ready to go. A similar performance will make this $1.3 million purchase an absolute handful in the Grade 1 Hopeful; #6 STUDLYDORIGHT (12-1): Won the Tremont two back and was a fast-closing second in the Grade 3 Sanford. That day’s winner came back to overcome a strange trip and win again, and given the abundance of early zip, he could get an ideal setup at a price; #8 CHANCER MCPATRICK (5/2): Rallied from last to first to take his debut and is another that could benefit from the race shape. That maiden race hasn’t come back the strongest, though, and the fractions certainly indicated a meltdown was probable. He could win, but as second-time starters go, I prefer my top pick, and as closers go, I prefer my second choice (who’ll likely be a much bigger price).

R11

Child of the Moon
Venencia
Sugar Hi

#11 CHILD OF THE MOON (3-1): Came back running off a long layoff when she was second at this level back in July. She had no pace to run at that day but still showed the talent that won her a stakes race in her native France, and I’m expecting a step forward here for powerhouse connections; #8 VENENCIA (4-1): Comes off a long layoff for Chad Brown and tried an ambitious spot last year when seventh in the Wonder Again. The works seem slow, but this isn’t a barn that asks a ton of its horses in the mornings, and perhaps she’s ready to go off the bench; #2 SUGAR HI (10-1): Has struggled since a first-out score here last summer but is bred to love the lawn and finally gets it. This daughter of Twirling Candy has a right to improve on the grass, and I’ll gladly throw her into exotics given her likely price.

R12

Lucky and Gorgeous
Coach Sessa
Dance On Air

#3 LUCKY AND GORGEOUS (6-1): Had a very unlucky trip in her last turf start two back. She probably lost all chance at the break that day. Her three-back effort was solid, and channeling that could make her tough in the final race of the meet; #12 COACH SESSA (3-1): Hasn’t run since October and drops in class first off the bench. She’ll get a bunch of changes in here, assuming she draws in, as she’s making her first start for Rob Atras and will add Lasix; #6 DANCE ON AIR (7/2): Goes back to the turf, and her lone grass race to date has aged pretty well. The top two finishers are both solid runners, and while she’ll need to move forward, this will be just her fourth lifetime start, so perhaps she’s still got some potential to do that.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $2,013.75

Moving to California 11 years ago this October was the right move 100 times out of 100. It allowed me to build a career that I’m very proud of, and I wound up meeting a woman I’m marrying next summer.

However, the best part of trips east is reconnecting with people I don’t see nearly enough. I’ve been lucky to run into a bunch of people from various different parts of my life the past few days, sometimes in hilarious fashion (hi, Jay!). That’s the stuff that’ll have me smiling all the way home on Monday.

To those I’ve run into: Thank you. To those I haven’t: I’m up here one more day, and I’m an easy guy to find!

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Brightwork was my biggest win bet of the season, and she thankfully delivered in the Prioress. A $100 investment returned $355.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to come out firing with a play in the opener. #8 HURRICANE NELSON is going to be a short price, and I’ll attempt to extract value with $20 exactas using him atop longshots #5 WAJDA and #6 ESCONDIDO. I’ll also have $5 “saver” exactas using those two on top of Hurricane Nelson.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Adventurous Spirit, Race 6
Longshot: Escondido, Race 1

R1

Hurricane Nelson
Escondido
Wajda

#8 HURRICANE NELSON (7/5): Is approaching “now or never” status in his sixth start as a maiden. He’s run second four times in five outings, including twice at this stand, and if he doesn’t get it done here from a cushy outside draw in a race without much other early speed, I’ll have trouble endorsing him in any race moving forward; #6 ESCONDIDO (15-1): Ran pretty well to be fourth in his debut, which came in a loaded maiden race with several next-out winners. He probably lost all chance at the break last time out, and that clunker could mean an inflated price this time around; #5 WAJDA (12-1): Probably needed his last-out effort given the long layoff and didn’t break well that day. This barn does tremendous with with horses second off the bench, and this price is very attractive given the powerhouse connections.

R2

Margot’s Angel (MTO)
Love Tempo
Opulent Restraint

#2 LOVE TEMPO (5/2): Has run well twice in as many starts to date and just missed last time out behind a big price. That particular race did not set up for his late-running style, and I think there may be some more pace signed on in this spot; #9 OPULENT RESTRAINT (2-1): Was another runner compromised by a slow early pace last time out. She was fourth as an odds-on favorite that day, and the third-place finisher came back to win at next asking. The likely price seems a bit short, but second-out improvement would give her a chance; #6 GOOD LONG CRY (4-1): Beat my second choice last time out and figures to be part of the pace once again. I can’t see her getting such an easy trip twice in a row, but she may be the one they have to run down turning for home.

R3

Printrack (MTO)
Yarrow
Determined Effort

#3 YARROW (5/2): Has had a few wide trips this summer and exits several races that proved pretty strong for the level. Some of his best races have come at this route of ground, and the likely race shape certainly sets up for a closer like this one; #6 DETERMINED EFFORT (7/2): Was an impressive winner in his lone start to date and could be a major player if he’s ready to go off the bench. That race was in December, so there’s a long layoff to consider, but that was one impressive move he made, and I can’t ignore him; #8 URBAN LEGEND (6-1): Ships up from Florida after a few starts at Gulfstream, and I like him the most of the likely frontrunners. He doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well, which is a big plus, and he could sit a stalking trip behind a hot pace.

R4

Cloud Forest
Unclecharliesgift
Smile Mon

#5 CLOUD FOREST (3-1): Hasn’t run since January but gets a tepid nod in a race out of the polarizing Wilson chute. He ran well at this route last summer, when he was beaten just a neck, and he seems like a pace factor in a race otherwise light on early zip; #4 UNCLECHARLIESGIFT (10-1): Stretches out to this route, which is a bit of an unknown, but he’s run reasonably well twice at this level this season and may be sitting on a strong race third off the bench. His pedigree says the trip shouldn’t be an issue, and the price is certainly attractive; #9 SMILE MON (9/2): Looks like the main speed and may be a threat to wire this group if he can clear the field early. That’s not a small “if,” to be sure, but he drops back down to what’s probably the right level and could be the one they’re chasing early.

R5

Market Alert
Charlie Five O
Critical Threat

#3 MARKET ALERT (4-1): Has had some pretty terrible trips of late but drops in class first off the claim for an astute barn. The rider switch to Manny Franco is a notable one, and I think there are several reasons to expect a significant step forward; #7 CHARLIE FIVE O (5-1): Sat a very strange trip last time out, which also came when this barn was ice-cold in the opening weeks of the meet. The outfit has since heated up a bit, and the presence of Flavien Prat is encouraging; #5 CRITICAL THREAT (6-1): Is another going first off the claim for Rob Falcone, who conditions my top pick, too. He’s run well here multiple times in the past, gets a massive jockey change to Irad Ortiz, Jr., and might be the best speed horse in the field.

R6

Adventurous Spirit
Guile
Get It To Matthew

#11 ADVENTUROUS SPIRIT (8/5): Drops in for a tag for very aggressive connections after several solid outings against maiden special weight foes. The lack of one of this barn’s first-call riders is a bit puzzling, but Ricardo Santana, Jr., has quietly put together a solid meet, so it’s not like that’s a disqualifying factor. If he’s right, he’s strictly the one to beat; #1 GUILE (6-1): Goes first off the claim for Mike Maker and comes back to the turf in this spot. He was very wide two starts ago at this level and route, and I think he moves forward considerably with a better trip; #9 GET IT TO MATTHEW (12-1): Is strictly a pedigree play in a race that seems lacking in proven form. This is a son of Mendelssohn and a Tapit mare, which means he should love the turf. He’s never tried it before, so that’s an unknown, but at his likely price, I think he offers value in the exotics.

R7

Quickick
All the Feels
Soothe

#1 QUICKICK (7/2): Debuted with a third-place finish at this distance (which isn’t an easy one for first-time starters to navigate). Blinkers go on at second asking, and while the rail draw isn’t ideal, I think there’s reason to expect a move forward; #4 ALL THE FEELS (8-1): Debuts for Todd Pletcher and may offer surprising value given her pedigree. Her dam is a Grade 2-winning 2-year-old, and her second dam threw, among others, Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming; #9 SOOTHE (8-1): Debuts for Bill Mott and, given her turf-oriented, distance-heavy pedigree, may need a race or two to get going. However, her last two workouts are excellent and she draws well in this spot, so perhaps her raw talent is enough to get her there in a wide-open event.

R8

Classic Legacy (MTO)
Tidal Forces
Capture the Flag

#2 TIDAL FORCES (3-1): Ran his eyeballs out to be second in a similar spot back in July at a massive price (I remember vividly, because a win would’ve been VERY nice for me…). He might be a hair better on synthetic, but his recent turf efforts are sharp, and I think there’s plenty of speed in here for him to run at late; #10 CAPTURE THE FLAG (4-1): Won on turf two back before finishing second in a race rained off the grass last month. Turf seems to be his best game, and a repeat of the two-back effort would give him a chance for connections that always merit respect; #3 PAROS (7/2): Has won two in a row and goes to a new barn ahead of a significant class test. His win last time out was very sharp, as Jose Ortiz worked out a trip from a far-outside post. Brother Irad doesn’t have to deal with that post, but these are sharp opponents and the likely price hits me as a bit of an underlay.

R9

Cupid’s Heart
St. Benedicts Prep
Ringy Dingy

#6 CUPID’S HEART (5/2): Hasn’t run a bad one in nearly three years and exits a win over her primary rival downstate. She may have needed that race off of a pretty long layoff, so improvement could be coming going a distance where she’s recorded two wins and a second in three relevant starts; #1 ST. BENEDICTS PREP (3-1): Wore down a rival late to clear a first-level allowance condition last time out. That came in the mud, which she’s bred to handle, but she was only beaten less than a length by my top pick two starts ago, and she’s got the speed to use the inside draw as an asset; #4 RINGY DINGY (8-1): Is my one attempt at creativity in here, as I think she could be a factor at a bit of a price. She gets Lasix for the first time after three straight outings against graded stakes foes, and the cutback to this seven-furlong distance could be exactly what she wants.

R10

Set
Big Prankster
Russi

#7 SET (4-1): Started his career going 2-for-2, but drops into the state-bred optional claiming ranks after graded stakes company proved a bit too tough. His back class is substantial, and while I think he may want a bit longer than today’s distance, he doesn’t have to move forward much from his last two starts in order to beat these; #9 BIG PRANKSTER (12-1): Won an off-the-turf event last time out and figures to do his best running late. I didn’t like him much last time, but while this is a jump in class, it’s also not the strongest race for the level and he has a right to keep moving forward; #5 RUSSI (12-1): Has run well in every start since July of last year and is 2-for-2 at this route of ground. He showed some versatility last time out, when he rated a bit further back and came with a rally. On speed figures, he needs to improve in order to win, but I think he’s an exotics contender at a price.

R11

Film Star (MTO)
Running Bee
Pioneering Spirit

#5 RUNNING BEE (9/5): Has been running against much better horses most of this year and exits a sixth-place finish in the Grade 2 United Nations. That may have been a bit long for him, and he ran up against a few solid turf horses that day. His two-back Grade 3 Monmouth performance was sharp, and a repeat of that effort makes him a formidable favorite in the Bernard Baruch; #4 PIONEERING SPIRIT (6-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while but is another dropping in class. In this case, he was fourth in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer just eight days prior to this race. He may want a bit longer than today’s distance, but his best gives him a big chance; #1 FORT WASHINGTON (9/2): Dead-heated with my top pick two starts ago and didn’t have an easy trip in the United Nations. On speed figures, he fits, but he may ned a bit more pace than he’s likely to get here, and that gives me some pause.

R12

Arthur’s Ride
Disarm
Bright Future

#7 ARTHUR’S RIDE (4/5): Couldn’t have been much more impressive than he was in winning the Grade 1 Whitney. The Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup adds an extra furlong, but he’s won at this distance before and looks every bit like the one to beat; #4 DISARM (8-1): Was gaining ground late in the Whitney and ran probably the best race of his career at this route last summer, when he was second in the Grade 1 Travers behind Arcangelo. He’s got the Steve Asmussen work pattern I love to see (a sharp two-back drill followed by a maintenance move), and he’s a logical alternative; #3 BRIGHT FUTURE (10-1): Won this race a season ago, so you know he can win at this distance and surface. The question is, do we get the horse that got his nose down in this spot in 2023, or do we get the horse that never seemed interested in the Whitney?

R13

Burn Rubber
Wild Nugget
Irie Man

#10 BURN RUBBER (6-1): Is one of a few interesting first-time starters in a race with many experienced horses that, to put it kindly, have struggled at this level. He’s been working steadily for Linda Rice ahead of his unveiling, and if he runs to those works, he’ll have every chance in the Sunday nightcap; #12 WILD NUGGET (8-1): Draws a cushy outside post for his debut and ships up from Penn National to take on fellow New York-breds. His dam was a classy runner that won eight times and banked more than $277,000, and his workouts are consistent enough; #5 IRIE MAN (4-1): Didn’t get a great setup last time, when he rated behind a slow early pace and was left with too much to do. He has some back races that aren’t bad, and Flavien Prat riding back is definitely a positive.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,758.75

The worst sound at a racetrack is silence. Specifically, it’s the hushed silence that comes as a crowd digests a traumatic breakdown occurring right in front of the grandstand. Saratoga experienced that twice on big days last year, when Maple Leaf Mel and New York Thunder suffered catastrophic injuries.

Unfortunately, after a meet that had been free of such incidents until Friday afternoon, it happened again in the Saranac. The Big Torpedo and Take Me To Church went down less than a furlong from the wire. That hushed silence extended to the backyard, where seasoned bettors, novices, and children exchanged wordless glances because…well, because what do you say after something like that?

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: See above. I lost $35. Others lost far more than that, and to them I extend my condolences.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to keep things very simple. I love #9 BRIGHTWORK in the 10th, and I’ll have a $100 win ticket (by far my biggest win bet of the meet) in the Grade 3 Prioress.

TOTAL WAGERED: $100.

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Brightwork, Race 10
Longshot: Our Country, Race 13

R1

Printer’s Alley
Friday Surprise
Bernie Goes Boom

#4 PRINTER’S ALLEY (6/5): Comes into his unveiling with a fantastic string of works for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher. He sold for just $32,000 at auction earlier this year, but his bottom-side pedigree includes a third dam that threw several real runners, and he may have grown out of whatever issues he had in April; #3 FRIDAY SURPRISE (5/2): Has run second twice in as many starts to date, but may have bounced a bit last time out after a very solid debut. He’s got an experience edge over many other contenders and may still have a right to improve; #9 BERNIE GOES BOOM (8-1): Draws a cushy outside post in his debut and has been working steadily for a very capable barn that doesn’t saddle a ton of horses. This outfit, however, merits respect when it shows up, and Javier Castellano sees fit to ride.

R2

Authentic Gallop
Statesman
Academy

#2 AUTHENTIC GALLOP (8-1): Set a solid pace in his debut and adds blinkers at second asking for trainer Tom Amoss. He’s kin to several very solid routers, including Ami’s Gizmo, who won a Grade 3 over a synthetic surface during his career; #6 STATESMAN (9/2): Debuted with a third-place finish out of the Wilson chute, which isn’t a route some horses enjoy. His dam excelled on both turf and dirt, and he’s a half-brother to Grade 2 turf winner Fashion Business; #11 ACADEMY (6-1): Probably never had a chance in his debut, when he was well behind and raced wide for a trainer whose runners often need a race or two to get going. The blinkers go on, and I think improvement is logical if he draws in off of the AE list.

R3

Tall Paul (MTO)
Nano Man
Street Rod

#7 NANO MAN (7/2): Earned the diploma last time out and faces winners for the first time. Sometimes, that’s a significant step up, but this race features many that have been at this level for quite a while. Add in that he’s run two very good races at this route in as many local starts, and I think he’s well-meant; #1 STREET ROD (6-1): Hasn’t been seen since January, when he topped open company in a turf sprint at Gulfstream. He’s clearly had some issues, but that was a swiftly-run race, and I think he’s a major player if he’s ready to go off the bench; #3 TWISTED FILIGREE (3-1): Ran a big one two back off of a very long layoff and clearly hated the dirt last time out. Improvement going back to his preferred surface is clearly logical; the question is, can he last through an early pace that figures to be hotly-contested?

R4

Forced Errors
Confabulation
Yingle Bells

#9 FORCED ERRORS (6-1): Comes back to dirt after a failed turf experiment and drops way down the class ladder. His debut at Churchill was a solid race, he draws favorably for this one, and a win here would be a popular one due to the presence of trainer Nick Zito; #7 CONFABULATION (5/2): Ran a clunker in his debut and is another dropping in class for aggressive connections. He was shipped to Monmouth after that race, and while that’s not necessarily a disqualifying factor for runners from the Chad Brown barn anymore, that and the class drop certainly make me think there isn’t a lot of confidence here; #1 YINGLE BELLS (15-1): Has shown some speed twice in as many starts and goes second off the bench in this spot. The rider switch is a curious one, and I’m expecting this filly to be prominent from the jump at a price.

R5

Federal Judge
Accretive
Pro Oxidant

#5 FEDERAL JUDGE (2-1): Did everything but win last time out in his first start since June of 2023. He set a very solid pace that day going a bit longer and settled for second. He’s since fired a five-furlong bullet drill across the street, and I’m expecting a step forward for high-percentage connections; #6 ACCRETIVE (9/5): Has some back class and certainly merits respect for the meet’s leading trainer and jockey. However, he hasn’t won in quite a while, and while he has excuses for losses against the likes of Baby Yoda and Scotland, no wins in nearly a year makes this gelding’s short price tough to swallow; #8 PRO OXIDANT (5-1): Goes first off the claim for Mike Maker and an owner actively gunning for the meet’s owner’s title. He’s shown an ability to stalk and pounce, and the outside draw should give jockey Ramon Vazquez plenty of options.

R6

Brindi
Scarlet Sands
Tam I Am

#6 BRINDI (5/2): Had some issues at the start in her debut but still salvaged a third-place finish behind a well-meant filly. Her experience edge is a plus, and I’m expecting improvement at second asking for a top-tier barn; #1 SCARLET SANDS (5-1): Debuts for Chad Brown and is bred to be a runner. She’s kin to five winners, and her dam is kin to, among others, Grade 1 winner Tara’s Tango and graded stakes-winning turders Scarlet Fusion and Scarlet Strike; #9 TAM I AM (6-1): Sports a very solid turf drill on her tab and may be one to watch. She hammered for $300,000 last year, and while the Todd Pletcher barn doesn’t have a great clip with first-out turf horses, the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., may be a clue.

R7

Zadorsky
Cara’s Time
Theresasilverlinin

#4 ZADORSKY (5/2): Has run well here twice, including a last-out second at this level and route. This isn’t a bad group, to be sure, but Luis Saez sees fit to ride back and she’s got enough tactical speed to sit an ideal stalking trip; #5 CARA’S TIME (7/2): Has some back class as a veteran of state-bred stakes races and goes third off the bench here. Her lone start at this seven-furlong distance was a win in one of those events last year, and a repeat of her two-back effort would give her a big shot; #1 THERESASILVERLININ (9/2): Got a strange ride last time out, when she was taken back off the pace and never had a chance. That may explain the rider switch, and from the rail, I think trainer instructions are pretty clear: Get out quickly and go as fast as you can, as long as you can.

R8

Tap Into This
Capricious Outcome
Our Favorite Son

#3 TAP INTO THIS (3-1): Debuted with a solid second at Churchill Downs and is bred to love added distance, which he gets at second asking. I love the Steve Asmussen work pattern where a strong two-back drill is followed up by a maintenance move, and that exists here; #7 CAPRICIOUS OUTCOME (9/2): Comes in with a series of very strong half-mile drills for Chad Brown, and this son of Practical Joke has a right to be precocious. There isn’t much bottom-side pedigree here, which is a bit unusual, but it’s also possible this first-time starter is set to outrun his bloodlines; #9 OUR FAVORITE SON (8-1): Makes his first start for Phil Bauer, whose horses have consistently run very well here this summer. It’s tough to debut going seven furlongs, but if recent works are any indication, he may be talented enough to overcome that hurdle.

R9

Summer Cause (MTO)
Unleash the Power
Laurel Valley

#5 UNLEASH THE POWER (6-1): Rallied from ninth to get the money last time out, and he’s yet to run a bad one in three starts this season. He’s a closer that may need a fair bit to go right, but there’s plenty of early speed in here (at least on paper) and I think he’s got a big chance at a second win in a row; #10 LAUREL VALLEY (8-1): Got a very, very strange ride here a few weeks ago, when he was inexplicably rated off the pace and never had a chance. I expect Irad Ortiz, Jr., to be much more aggressive here, and of the speed horses, this is the one I think has the most chance to run a winning race; #1 MCCULLOUGH (10-1): Came back running off the bench last time out, when he graduated in his turf debut (and his first start since February of 2023). Facing winners for the first time isn’t an easy ask, but it’s also possible he’s sitting on a step forward at a generous price for this top-tier barn.

R10

Brightwork
Two Sharp
Autumn Evening

#9 BRIGHTWORK (9/2): Won last year’s Grade 1 Spinaway and would’ve been a contender in the Grade 1 Test, but she acted up in the paddock and was scratched. Judging by the two-back bullet drill, that didn’t affect her much. I love the outside draw, I think she’s ready to go, and the morning line price in the Grade 3 Prioress hits me as a significant overlay; #7 TWO SHARP (7/5): Romped by 11 lengths last time out and takes an ambitious step up in class here. That win was over maidens, and this is a much tougher spot. It’s possible she’s a freak, but at her likely price, I’ll take a mild stand against; #2 AUTUMN EVENING (10-1): Didn’t break well in the Grade 3 Victory Ride and finished fourth behind the Test runner-up and two next-out winners. A smooth break likely puts her on or near the lead, and a repeat of her two or three-back efforts downstate would give her a chance at a piece of this.

R11

Quietside
Pondering
The Queens M G

#11 QUIETSIDE (3-1): Rolled home in her debut and has been working well since that outing ahead of the Grade 1 Spinaway. Luis Saez rides back for an outfit that could have a big afternoon, and while this is a competitive race, she hits me as a legitimate favorite; #7 PONDERING (6-1): Won her debut in professional fashion at Ellis Park and is bred to improve with the added distance she gets here. The two-back work here was a very good one, and this is a patient barn whose horses tend to improve with experience; #8 THE QUEENS M G (7/2): Goes for a third stakes win of the meet, and it’s awesome to see a horse run in all three in an era where thoroughbreds just don’t run all that much. This is a tougher field than the ones she’s dispatched in those prior starts, but she’s got plenty of tactical speed and is clearly thriving in upstate New York.

R12

War Like Goddess
McKulick
Parnac

#1 WAR LIKE GODDESS (7/5): Looms large in the Grade 2 Flower Bowl, contested at a distance where she’s run some of her best races. The inside post allows for a ground-saving trip, and Junior Alvarado’s gotten several very strong efforts out of her since earning the mount late last year; #7 MCKULICK (3-1): Is the other horse that will take plenty of money off of an easy score in the Grade 2 Glens Falls. She’s never run a bad race over this turf course, and she may have enough tactical speed to sit closer to the pace than she was last time out; #3 PARNAC (12-1): Was second in the Glens Falls and may have moved a bit too soon that day (though she probably was never beating the winner). She won this race a year ago in wire-to-wire fashion, and she’s never been worse than second in three local outings.

R13

Our Country
Jhirsch
Mr. Mendelssohn

#8 OUR COUNTRY (10-1): Gets a tepid nod in a mess of a Saturday finale. He may have needed his last-out effort, but was still only beaten less than three lengths despite going through some trouble. The potential to improve he has here, combined with the likely race shape, makes him an appealing value play; #6 JHIRSCH (5-1): Was third last time out behind a runner I like quite a bit earlier in the program. This seems like a weaker spot than the one he exits, and some of his two-turn turf route efforts stack up pretty favorably; #5 MR. MENDELSSOHN (15-1): Ran sixth in a pretty tough starter allowance back in June and adds blinkers in this outing. He was probably left with too much to do that day, and I’m expecting him to show some more early zip here at a price.