Schuylerville

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/13/23; OPENING DAY)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

It’s been a heck of a 10-month period for me since we last did this. Among other highlights, I’ve gotten engaged, climbed mountains in England, eaten mountains of food in Italy, and benefited from an arrangement that will also see my content published in the New York Daily News.

Now, the work starts. A quick rundown for those new to the party: I’ll be giving out at least one play a day in hopes of growing my mythical $1,000 betting stake. While my picks and analysis will be live on AndrewChampagne.com two days in advance, these won’t be posted until the previous day’s action has concluded (if I could post them further in advance, after all, I’d never lose).

Let’s dive in, shall we?

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I sincerely hope we get the morning line price on #4 OLLIEMYBOY in the fifth. If he doesn’t go favored, that hits me as an overlay. We’ll start things off with a $20 win bet on that one, plus a $10 cold double starting with him and ending with #2 RUNNINGWSCISSORS in the sixth (as a reminder, plays in all turf races assume they stay on the grass).

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Olliemyboy, Race 5
Longshot: Need Some Money, Race 7

R1

Virtual Reality
Sabra Tuff
Bustin Bay

#1 VIRTUAL REALITY (3-1): Got up to win at first asking downstate in late-May and stretches out to two turns here. However, she’s got the pedigree to want every bit of this trip, being by Preakness winner Cloud Computing and out of a mare with stamina-heavy bloodlines; #6 SABRA TUFF (3-1): Has faced nothing but stakes rivals since winning her debut in June of 2022 and should appreciate the class drop. The addition of Lasix also figures to be a plus, and the last-out clunker seems too bad to be true; #5 BUSTIN BAY (5/2): Crushed a field of state-bred rivals last time out at Belmont Park and has won twice in five local outings at the Spa. The hesitation here isn’t the talent, but the two-turn trip. She’s never gone this far before in 32 lifetime starts, so that’s a legitimate concern.

R2

Lady Moscato
Empire Island
Soca

#6 LADY MOSCATO (3-1): Debuted with a decent second at Ellis Park and is one of just two horses in this field with prior experience. She’s a full sister to Grade 1 winner Salty, and the most recent gate work at Churchill indicates she’s bounced out of her unveiling in strong fashion; #2 EMPIRE ISLAND (5/2): Has turned in several flashy works beneath the Twin Spires and figures to be favored. She may have the talent to win this, but her distance-heavy pedigree means she may want much longer than this 5 1/2-furlong trip; #4 SOCA (6-1): Debuts for Todd Pletcher, who must always be respected with first-time starters. She’s a half-sister to Double Thunder, who won a Grade 3 as a 2-year-old, and she attracts Flavien Prat, who’s been riding as well as anyone in the country.

R3

Smokin’ Hot Kitty
Liana B
La Aguililla

#4 SMOKIN’ HOT KITTY (7/2): Came back to form last time out, when she made up lots of ground late and missed by a nose. She earned the diploma at this route last summer, and there’s plenty of speed in this turf sprint to set up for her late kick; #8 LIANA B (5-1): Went wire-to-wire at Monmouth last time out and tries winners for the first time here. Luis Saez, one of the top gate riders anywhere, sees fit to ride, and that could be a tough tandem to beat give this one’s ample early zip; #10 LA AGUILILLA (6-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while, but comes back to the turf and gets Irad Ortiz, Jr., two switches that can’t be ignored. She ran well in a few early-2023 turf sprints and could have options from the outside post.

R4

Salimah
Kalifornia Queen
Sister Otoole

#5 SALIMAH (8/5): Makes her first start since the Grade 1 American Oaks and is half of a Chad Brown duo that looks very tough. She won a classy overnight stakes race before shipping west to Santa Anita, and the return of Lasix in her 4-year-old debut can’t be overlooked; #6 KALIFORNIA QUEEN (4-1): Hasn’t won since June of 2021 but has spent most of that time going up against graded stakes competition. This is just her fifth start since October of 2021, so there have probably been some issues here, but her best effort would give her a big chance; #2 SISTER OTOOLE (6-1): Comes in off of a long layoff, but does so for Graham Motion, who gets horses prepared to go off of long breaks as well as anybody. This distance may be a bit short for her, but there are some classy names in her prior running lines that hint she’s a threat if she’s ready.

R5

Olliemyboy
Dust Devil
Two Thirty Five

#4 OLLIEMYBOY (3-1): Won for a $62,500 tag two starts ago and drops in for less than a third of that price here. He’s been gelded since a last-out clunker at Churchill Downs, and this is an aggressive owner/trainer combination that isn’t afraid to lose horses via the claim box. A repeat of that two-back effort would make him incredibly formidable; #2 DUST DEVIL (4-1): Comes in off of back-to-back second-place finishes downstate against similar company, and he made up a lot of ground late in his most recent outing. Prat sees fit to ride back when he had some options, and he should be going well late; #9 TWO THIRTY FIVE (8-1): Is one of a few 9-year-olds in here, but has shown he still has some gas in the tank. This 13-time winner has proven two-turn form, and his usual effort seems like enough to get a piece of this purse at a bit of a price.

R6

Amundson (MTO)
Runningwscissors
Yarrow

#2 RUNNINGWSCISSORS (8/5): Looms large in his return to state-bred competition after two runs against open company. His sharp win two back saw him earn a career-high 94 Beyer Speed Figure, and while this isn’t a bad group for the level, a similar effort would have the rest of them running for second money; #6 YARROW (4-1): Returns to what’s probably his favorite track, one where he’s never finished worse than third in three local tries. He didn’t get any pace to run at last time going a bit longer, and I think he’ll be much more comfortable here given a decent amount of early speed around him; #7 PHANTOM SMOKE (6-1): Had every right to need his last-out effort given that it was his first try in five months, but he ran a credible third at a bit of a price. The rider switch to Prat is a big one, and he’s another that’s shown an affinity for this turf course in the past.

R7

Need Some Money
Sa Foradada
Condiment Girl

#11 NEED SOME MONEY (8-1): Looks a heck of a lot better if you toss her two-turn efforts. I simply think she’s far better in one-turn races, and that this seven-furlong trip hits her right between the eyes. She should also benefit from a fast pace in front of her and hits me as a live longshot; #5 SA FORADADA (5-1): Has run second on four straight occasions, but gets both blinkers and Irad Ortiz, Jr., here. She makes her second start off a long layoff and has run well going seven furlongs in the past, so there’s plenty to like; #9 CONDIMENT GIRL (7/2): Has proven tough to catch when she gets the early lead, and she seems like the fastest of this bunch out of the gate. Robertino Diodoro can win with new acquisitions, and she fits on speed figures; the question is, can she handle this step up in class out of a $30,000 beaten claimer last month?

R8

My Sea Cottage
Kingfish Stevens
Born a Gambler

#4 MY SEA COTTAGE (7/2): Has done nothing but fire since returning from a long break in December, and has been the victim of a few hard-luck losses downstate. His two wins have come going two turns, and his early speed should be an asset over this inner turf course; #5 KINGFISH STEVENS (5-1): Has made middle moves several times in his past few starts, and I’m guessing that’s part of why blinkers go on today. He was a credible fourth in a stakes race on the Preakness undercard two starts ago, and he’s a win candidate if he turns up more focused in this spot; #2 BORN A GAMBLER (6-1): Won for the first time in a while a couple of weeks ago, when he responded to a drop in class and rallied to get the money. He merits some respect off of the last-out effort, but he’ll have to manage stretching out to two turns and jumping back up the class ladder.

R9

Wine On Tap
Sugar Treat
Saratoga Secret

#7 WINE ON TAP (5/2): Never looked like a loser in her unveiling at Belmont and is a logical favorite in the Grade 3 Schuylerville. The additional furlong should pose no problem for this daughter of Tapit, and a win by her would give Pletcher a seventh Schuylerville win; #11 SUGAR TREAT (6-1): Overcame significant trouble in her debut, where she checked several times, lost ground, and somehow found a way to win. The outside post should give she and Prat smoother sailing, and if she transfers the synthetic form to Saratoga’s dirt track, she could be a major player; #5 SARATOGA SECRET (4-1): Was never seriously troubled in her first-out win at Ellis Park, and that day’s rider, Luis Saez, stays aboard for her first try against winners. Her lone work since that race was sharp, and like his former assistant trainer, D. Wayne Lukas is aiming for his seventh Schuylerville Thursday afternoon.

R10

Stone of Destiny
Here We Go Again
Pimenova

#4 STONE OF DESTINY (9/2): Was last of seven in her debut, but she had an excuse that day given a rough trip. David Donk’s horses often need a race or two to get going, the class drop should help her find her footing, and it’s encouraging that John Velazquez stays aboard in the Opening Day finale; #10 HERE WE GO AGAIN (4-1): Hasn’t raced since November, but returns for a barn that hits at a 29% clip with new acquisitions. She showed some early speed a season ago, and I’m anticipating Saez will have her up close throughout in her 3-year-old debut; #11 PIMENOVA (8-1): Doesn’t draw a spectacular post but should certainly appreciate stretching out to two turns. Her best races in 2022 came at similar routes of ground, and she exits a decent third-place effort going a bit shorter at Belmont in mid-June.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/14/22; OPENING DAY)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

Last summer was the best summer of my career as a published handicapper. I led all members of the local media with 142 top-pick winners, those top-pick winners generated a positive ROI ($2.04, if you’re curious), and I turned a $277.10 profit in this bankroll section over the course of the meet.

In addition to the picks and analysis you can find in The Pink Sheet and online at AndrewChampagne.com every day, I’ll be playing with a $1,000 bankroll and offering daily wagering insight. As usual, all wagers assume races carded for turf stay there. Surface changes void all plays.

Finally, one quick note before we get started. Juan Vazquez has two horses entered on today’s card. Pennsylvania just suspended him through Jan. 26, 2025, and used words like “grossly negligent, cruel, and abusive.” Why is he allowed to run here? NYRA needs to fix this, and fix this quickly.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: With the blessing of an editor working on deadline, we’ll focus on the Opening Day nightcap, which houses my best bet of the day. #5 FAST COREY drops in for a tag and has shown blazing early speed. I’ll keep it simple, play a $30 win ticket, and hope she makes every pole a winning one at or near the 7/2 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Fast Corey, Race 10
Longshot: Angitude, Race 7

R1

Giocare
Bear Alley
Kershaw

#7 GIOCARE: Has precisely the right running style to perform well in a lid-lifter that seems loaded with early speed. This deep closer has run well at this level multiple times, got claimed back by Orlando Noda, and should be running well late when others may be pleading for the wire; #6 BEAR ALLEY: Comes in off of two straight wins at Churchill Downs and goes first off the claim for Bill Morey, who excels with new acquisitions. He makes sense, but it’s worth noting he’s 5-for-6 beneath the Twin Spires and 0-for-13 everywhere else; #9 KERSHAW: Drops in for a tag for the first time since February, when he won easily in a two-turn race at this level at Oaklawn. He’s another that should benefit from the likely race shape, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride.

R2

Half a Chance
Chocolate Gelato
Two Minute Drill

#1 HALF A CHANCE: Is the lone runner with experience in the first 2-year-old race of the meet, and she did everything but win last time out. She was beaten less than a length, was five lengths clear of the third-place finisher, and has since worked well twice at Keeneland; #6 CHOCOLATE GELATO: Hammered for $475,000 earlier this year and has been training steadily for Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher. The outside draw is a plus, and it wouldn’t be shocking if these connections had their first debutante of the season ready to go; #5 TWO MINUTE DRILL: Sold for $210,000 (seven times the sire’s stud fee) and is out of a Grade 1-winning sprinter. The works seem solid enough, and she may be a big enough price to provide value in vertical exotics.

R3

No Burn (MTO)
High Tide
Grand Journey

#4 HIGH TIDE: Takes a significant class drop after a strong spring downstate. He topped starter allowance foes twice before finishing a fast-closing fourth against optional claiming foes. Jose Lezcano knows this one well and should get plenty of pace to chase; #9 GRAND JOURNEY: Topped $25,000 claimers last time out and climbs up the ladder here. This is a tough spot for the level, but he fits on figures, boasts considerable back class, and has enough early speed to work out an ideal trip; #2 BE HERE: Has won two in a row with a pair of wildly-different trips. He wired them last time out at Delaware Park after making up as many as 15 lengths two back. This high-percentage outfit must be respected.

R4

Cheeky Tico (MTO)
Remote
Grand Cay

#3 REMOTE: Makes the most sense in a puzzling turf marathon. He was second at this distance downstate last time, Joel Rosario sees fit to ride back for Christophe Clement, and he should at least have enough tactical speed to be reasonably close early; #5 GRAND CAY: Adds blinkers for Shug McGaughey and was a bit wide last time when fourth behind a much-the-best winner. The rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., is noteworthy, and perhaps the blinkers will get him a bit more engaged early; #1 TIZ A GIANT: Is bred to run all day long and makes his first marathon start here. He’s by Tiznow, out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, and has every right to improve at a price against a group that doesn’t seem to include any world-beaters.

R5

Majority Partner
Tommy Gun
Catching Cupid

#3 MAJORITY PARTNER: Hasn’t started since April but has been working very well here and runs for a claiming tag for the first time. He showed speed against a better group last time, and he stands a big chance if he’s ready to fire; #4 TOMMY GUNN: Adds blinkers in his first start as a gelding. He’s another dropping into the maiden claiming rank for a sharp outfit, and Irad rides back; #2 CATCHING CUPID: Probably needed his last-out effort, which doubled as his first try since November. Charlton Baker trainees tend to move forward second off the bench, and such an improvement may be enough in this wide-open sprint.

R6

Life Changer (MTO)
King Moonracer
Just Say When

#9 KING MOONRACER: Merits respect as a closer in a race full of early speed. His 2022 debut off a long break was sharp, as he just missed when second at this level downstate. Castellano fits him well, and he’s the one they’ll have to hold off late; #4 JUST SAY WHEN: Has a win and two seconds from three starts and runs two straight races without a layoff line for the first time. He was second in a pretty fast turf sprint two back at Gulfstream and has shown he doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well; #1 STARRYSTARRYKNIGHT: Benefited from a race that fell apart late to get out of the maiden ranks. This is a steep class hike, but the abundance of early zip in here may mean this one has a shot to pick up the pieces for a minor award at a big price.

R7

Angitude
Tarabi
Gina Romantica

#4 ANGITUDE: Stretches out after a first-level allowance score at Churchill and has a running style that hints she’ll like this route. Smart money says inside speed will do well out of the new Wilson chute, and it’s tough to imagine this speedy daughter of Violence being taken back early; #7 TARABI: Has yet to run a bad race in her four-start career, one that includes a pair of minor awards in Grade 1 races. On talent, she more than fits here, but the outside draw could present a real obstacle given the extremely short run into the turn; #2 GINA ROMANTICA: Has a record that looks miles better if you draw a line through the Grade 3 Beaumont, where no horse was beating Matareya. The third-place finisher from her last race has since come back to win, and while I unfortunately doubt we’ll get the 8-1 morning line price given the connections, she merits respect in the first stakes race of the 2022 season.

R8

Customer List
Canisy
Santa Giulia

#6 CUSTOMER LIST: Was probably entered in the Penn Oaks just to make sure the race went. That event was won by the classy Haughty, and there are no such monsters here. She gets Lasix for the first time second off the bench, has posted two straight bullet drills, and looks well-meant for powerhouse connections; #1 CANISY: Just missed last time out after rating in an event completely devoid of early speed. There seems to be some pace to chase in here, and she’s got a big chance if Javier Castellano can work out a trip from the inside draw; #13 SANTA GIULIA: Needs a scratch to draw in but merits a look if she runs. She gets Lasix in her stateside debut after breaking her maiden overseas and, like my top pick, has posted back-to-back bullet works for Chad Brown.

R9

Summer Promise
Just Cindy
Vedareo

#9 SUMMER PROMISE: Never looked like a loser in her debut, where she won by five lengths and ran to her lofty $500,000 price tag. Her lone recorded drill since that race was a smashing four-furlong move at Churchill, and she looms large for D. Wayne Lukas in the Grade 3 Schuylerville; #1 JUST CINDY: Showed some maturity at first asking, when she rallied from fourth to win going away. That’s not an easy thing for a debuting runner to do, and she may have developed quickly enough to overcome the rail draw against a speedy group; #4 VEDAREO: Was bet like she couldn’t lose in her debut at Parx, which she won easily enough. The most recent works indicate that wasn’t a fluke, and when this barn comes up from Philadelphia with 2-year-olds, those runners are usually well-meant.

R10

Fast Corey
Mommasgottarun (MTO)
Rigby

#5 FAST COREY: Has posted insane early fractions in all three of her starts to date and runs for a tag for the first time. These are aggressive connections, so the drop doesn’t concern me, and I just cannot see any other runner coming close to this one early on. Such a scenario would make her very tough to catch late; #4 RIGBY: Nearly capitalized on the drop into the claiming ranks when a close second last month at Belmont. She wound up on the lead that day, but she’s also shown she can rate, which gives Luis Saez plenty of options; #9 QUEENS DANCER: Will be a big price after shipping in from Finger Lakes, but her lone turf start to date is probably the best race of her career. They went pretty fast early on that day, and it’s logical to think a return to the lawn will be to her benefit. Perhaps a win is too much to ask, but I wouldn’t be surprised if she hits the board at a large number in the Opening Day finale.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/15/21; OPENING DAY)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

Happy Opening Day, everyone! I’m excited to be back for another year, and I’m looking forward to hopefully helping you have some fun times at one of horse racing’s last remaining cathedrals.

If you’re new, here’s how this works: All of my stuff will be available in print in The Pink Sheet and online at AndrewChampagne.com. I’m in California and work a day in advance to mitigate the time difference. Wednesday’s content will be online Monday night, Thursday’s content will be up Tuesday night, and so on.

In addition to my selections in the pick box and detailed analysis of every race, I’ll have this space, which offers room for some quick thoughts and a bankroll play for each day of racing. If you’ve got any questions or comments you want me to address, tweet me at @AndrewChampagne. I’m an easy guy to connect with, and I’m always happy to engage with folks who enjoy my stuff. Let’s make some money!

THURSDAY’S PLAY: We begin with a reminder that all action assumes races carded for the turf stay there, and that surface changes render tickets null and void. With that in mind, if the sixth race stays on the lawn, I love #2 ALBA’S STAR, who looks like the lone speed second off the bench and returns to a two-turn route she’s shown she loves. I’ll kick off the meet with a $25 win bet on that one.

TOTAL WAGERED: $25.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Lady Scarlet, Race 5
Longshot: Skyro, Race 3

R1

Wagon Boss
Grit and Glory
Charlie’sarchangel

#4 WAGON BOSS: Gets a tepid nod in a pretty wide-open lid-lifter. He beat a similar-level field last time out at Churchill and may get the type of stalking trip he’s shown he prefers beneath world-class jockey Joel Rosario; #7 GRIT AND GLORY: Has a chance to win the first race of the meet for the second year in a row. He’s got back races that are good enough to win this, and he’s shown he can rally late, which could come in handy in a race that appears to have plenty of early speed; #5 CHARLIE’SARCHANGEL: Finished a half-length behind my top pick last time out and has since moved to the barn of Robertino Diodoro, who’s very strong with new acquisitions. He may go favored, and he’s not without a chance, but he hasn’t won in a while and sure seemed like he lost with a perfect trip when we last saw him run.

R2

Speedometer
Zmuda
Microbiome

#9 SPEEDOMETER: Ran like a horse that needed her debut effort in last month’s unveiling at Churchill Downs, when she was third behind a good-looking winner that’ll take money in today’s co-feature. She’s a full sister to hard-knocking sprinter Nitrous, her experience should help her, and the outside draw should allow her to settle down a bit; #7 ZMUDA: Made a mild move to be fourth in her first start, and she did so for a barn whose first-time starters often need a race. Her work tab includes some fast moves at Keeneland, and she’s another eligible to move forward; #4 MICROBIOME: Hammered for $100,000 at auction last September and is working like a good horse. Pay attention to the track condition, as her pedigree (by Twirling Candy, out of a Smoke Glacken mare) says she’ll move up over a wet surface.

R3

Wudda U Think Now (MTO)
St. Joe Louis
Skyro

#9 ST. JOE LOUIS: Came north after a frustrating debut at Tampa Bay Downs and walloped a field that included a next-out winner. This is his first try out of the maiden ranks, but he’s bred to be a very good horse and it’s not like this field has any monsters in it; #4 SKYRO: Tries turf for the first time and has a bottom-side pedigree that says he’ll love it. His dam is kin to a horse named Jambalaya, who was one of the better turf routers in the country in his day, and this one’s shown enough talent on dirt to intrigue at his likely price; #7 SO SUAVE: Makes his U.S. debut off of a long break, but gets Lasix for the first time and is certainly in capable hands. His best races overseas came over firmer going, which may be the reason he was sent here after showing enough promise to be 4-1 in a Group 3 last summer.

R4

Gem Key (MTO)
Ocean Air
Big Bad Diva

#12 OCEAN AIR: Has run well twice at this level downstate and goes back to two turns, a configuration she won over in Florida. It sure seems like there’s a lot of early zip in this field, and I think she’s likely to be rolling late; #10 BIG BAD DIVA: Comes in off a freshening and will make her first start since March. She has tactical speed but doesn’t necessarily need the lead to run well, and she’s yet to miss the board in five career starts; #1 CLADDAGH’S RUN: Certainly moves up in class after several wins against claimers at Tampa, but there’s no denying she’s in good form and would benefit from a pace meltdown. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez sees fit to ride for George Weaver, and nothing says she can’t get a piece of this at a bit of a price.

R5

Lady Scarlet
Solasta
Echo Zulu

#3 LADY SCARLET: Dueled through fast fractions in her debut, when she was second beaten less than two lengths and topped the third-place finisher by four. Her recent bullet drill over the training track jumps off the page, and between her experience and evident talent, I think she’ll be quite imposing; #6 SOLASTA: Sold for $300,000 at auction last year and sports several fast works over this track. She’s a half-sister to Grade 1-winning sprinter Mia Mischief, and everything here says she’s got lots of talent; #7 ECHO ZULU: Also sold for $300,000 a year ago and is by promising first-crop sire Gun Runner. Among her half-siblings are Grade 1 winner Echo Town and Grade 3 winner J Boys Echo, and if there’s any hesitation here, it’s because I think she may want a bit more ground.

R6

Courageous Girl (MTO)
Alba’s Star
Jazzy Lady

#2 ALBA’S STAR: Looks like the lone speed in this inner turf event, and that’s always incredibly dangerous. She set a pretty fast pace for the level last time out and was third behind a next-out winner. A return to two turns should help her, and she could sit a very easy trip; #11 JAZZY LADY: Was claimed back by Ray Handal last time and exits a win over a weaker group at Churchill. The outside post is far from ideal, but she overcame a funky trip when we last saw her, and Rosario’s presence is a plus; #10 TWO CENT TOOTSIE: Drops into restricted claiming company after knocking heads with solid state-breds in her two most recent outings. This sure seems like an easier spot, and perhaps she can use her tactical speed to clear most of the field going into the first turn. 

R7

Pletcher entry
Dack Janiel’s
Dust Devil

PLETCHER ENTRY: I prefer #1 ARHAM, who’s run several races fast enough to get the job done here. He tries two turns for the first time, and his pedigree says he’ll love that journey; #4 DACK JANIEL’S: Got pretty good late last year when third beaten two lengths in a Grade 2 on the Breeders’ Cup undercard. His most recent effort at Churchill was pretty good, and he’d certainly benefit from any moisture in the track (rain, not whiskey); #8 DUST DEVIL: Makes his first start for Bill Mott and does so while returning to two turns. He splashed home to a six-length score in his last two-turn outing and was most recently third in the same race my top pick exits. 

R8

Golden Pal
Jaxon Traveler
Rebel Posse

#3 GOLDEN PAL: Ran one of the most impressive races of the 2020 season here when he romped in the Skidmore Stakes at this route. We haven’t seen him since the Breeders’ Cup, but he’s working well ahead of his return and would be a handful if he’s ready to run; #9 JAXON TRAVELER: Looms the main danger and has not finished worse than second in seven career starts. He was a decent second on a synthetic surface last time out, and there’s every reason to believe turf won’t be a problem; #8 REBEL POSSE: Is undefeated in two turf starts and showed an impressive turn of foot last time out. If you believe Golden Pal needs a race, or that he could be compromised by a speed duel, this one makes sense as a price play.

R9

Pretty Birdie
Happy Soul
Cartel Queen

#1 PRETTY BIRDIE: Won her debut impressively, and if that day’s third-place finisher runs well in the second race, it could bode well for this Norm Casse trainee. She appears to have bounced out of her unveiling well, and she’d be a popular winner given the name on the “owner” line; #7 HAPPY SOUL: Romped in two races downstate for 2-year-old maestro Wesley Ward and will almost certainly go favored. This daughter of a horse I will not name (not until I get the same money everyone else is getting, Mattress Mack!) has shown precocity, but this seems like a far stronger group, and any regression would make her vulnerable at a short price; #9 CARTEL QUEEN: Adds blinkers after a professional victory last time out at Churchill. She’s fired back-to-back bullets ahead of her first try against winners, and seeing Tom Amoss and Irad Ortiz, Jr., at 12-1 is undoubtedly enticing.

R10

Ruse
Big Georges Kingdm
Clever Fellow

#12 RUSE: Stayed on well when pressing a very fast pace for the level in his first start since January. He adds Lasix for this race, and his lone two-turn effort saw him run a close-up second at Aqueduct; #10 BIG GEORGES KINGDM: Makes his turf debut and has a pedigree that says he’ll like the footing. He’s by Animal Kingdom, out of a Big Brown mare, and comes in off of back-to-back second-place finishes this past spring against OK groups on dirt; #8 CLEVER FELLOW: Will likely be a pretty heavy favorite given his connections, but I see several red flags. He’s been a beaten chalk in each of his last three starts, it’s his first time going two turns, and why have they waited until now to add blinkers? At his probable price, I can’t endorse him on top.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/16/20; OPENING DAY)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

A lot has changed in the last 10 months, and this summer features a far, far different Saratoga meet. However, I’m grateful to be back for another go-round in The Pink Sheet, both in the pick box (where I’ll look for a fifth Pink Sheet title in seven years) and with this bankroll section (where I’ll look to grow an initial $1,000 stake between now at Labor Day). Quick reminder: All plays in this section assume races carded for turf stay there, and early scratches void the action of the horses involved.

All of my stuff will be available on AndrewChampagne.com far in advance. If you have a question or something for me to potentially write about, tweet me at @AndrewChampagne. My DM’s are open, and I respond to almost everything that gets sent in. It’s a tough time for a lot of people (self included; rest in peace, Nana), and I’ll gladly do anything I can to brighten the spirits of my readers.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the ninth race, the Grade 3 Peter Pan. #5 CANDY TYCOON hits me as a square price anywhere close to his 5-1 morning line price. I’ll key him in $3 exactas above and below #3 MODERNIST and #4 CELTIC STRIKER, and play Candy Tycoon to win and place for $4 as well.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Astoria Kitten, Race 7
Longshot: Grudge, Race 10

R1

Guy Caballero
Grit and Glory
Jerome Avenue

#6 GUY CABALLERO: Hasn’t run in a while but drops down the class ladder for aggressive connections. He was third in a Grade 2 just last year, and he’s shown he can run well going two turns; #2 GRIT AND GLORY: May get a solid setup at a bit of a price. There’s a good amount of early speed in here, and he could be in line to pick up the pieces in his second start off the bench; #7 JEROME AVENUE: Makes his first start for new trainer Rob Atras and is another taking a drop in class. He was third going two turns over this oval late last year, and Atras has hit at a 23% clip of late with new acquisitions.

R2

Scanno
Leading West
Magic Mojo

#10 SCANNO: Might provide a bit of value in here given the field size and runners from higher-profile barns. He and rider Javier Castellano may inherit the early lead given a relative lack of early zip, and he might not have to improve much off of a recent third-place effort downstate; #1 LEADING WEST: Drops in for a tag for the first time after running second several times against straight maidens. On paper, he makes sense, but I’m wary of him given the likely race shape, which may not favor his late-running style; #7 MAGIC MOJO: Might be worth another shot after a dud first time out. He didn’t have the best start in that race, and he’s bred to be far better than what he showed in his unveiling.

R3

Glass Ceiling
Palace Avenger
Carrizo

#4 GLASS CEILING: Is a pace play for me in a confounding five-horse event. Unlike many of her rivals, she doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well, and her three wins around one turn are also encouraging; #3 PALACE AVENGER: Came back running when second at Churchill in her 2020 debut. Her 85 Beyer Speed Figure may indicate she’s turned a corner, although she may have opposition up front early on; #1 CARRIZO: Hasn’t won since September of last year, but she does her best running at the Spa. She’s won twice in three local starts, and she could easily outrun her odds.

R4

Valletta
Palace Duchess
Gran Chemin

#5 VALLETTA: Cuts back in distance in her first start for Carlos Martin and gets a nod based on experience. Her most recent workout was very solid, and the presence of Javier Castellano is a plus; #4 PALACE DUCHESS: Was bet down to 1/5 odds in her debut last April at Keeneland, when she ran third and went to the sidelines. Her workouts have been consistent, and Wesley Ward can get horses ready to run as well as anyone; #7 GRAN CHEMIN: Was asked to go two turns in her lone career start to date. That’s never an easy thing to do, and that race produced several stakes-quality horses. Perhaps she needs a run off the bench, but if she’s ready, she’s got a shot at a nice number.

R5

Dark Money
The Caretaker
Thorny Tale

#5 DARK MONEY: Has won five of his last eight starts dating back to last summer and recently cruised to a three-length win over allowance foes downstate. He’s one of only a few in here not exiting the same race on June 19th, and his usual race makes him the one to catch; #8 THE CARETAKER: Won that June 19th event in his first start for Tom Morley and returns to a track where he’s won two of four starts. If they go fast early, he’s one of the ones who stands to benefit, and he should be doing his best running late; #7 THORNY TALE: Beat winners for the first time in his 2020 debut and takes a step up in class here. However, Castellano rides back, and there’s a chance he’s figuring things out as a 4-year-old.

R6

Brees Bayou (MTO)
Ward entry
Propensity

WARD ENTRY: Either entrant can win, but I prefer #2 MR EVERYTHING, who’s been working lights-out downstate and may relish the cutback in distance. #2B GRANDMAS FAVORITE is also a contender, having run several OK turf sprints before an extended hiatus; #9 PROPENSITY: Drops down in class after many opportunities against straight maidens. Perhaps the drop wakes him up, but his best races have come going longer elsewhere, so I’ll try to beat him; #6 NO BAD DAYS: Is worth a look underneath at a big number. He ran into multiple stakes winner Decorated Invader in his lone turf start and may relish a return to the surface against a weaker field.

R7

Astoria Kitten
Summer At The Spa
Ava K’s Girl

#1 ASTORIA KITTEN: Has the speed to utilize the rail to her advantage going long on the inner turf. That could prove dangerous in a race without much other early speed, and she has the talent to lead this field every step of the way; #9 SUMMER AT THE SPA: Is an ultimate hunch play that will benefit if a rival goes with my top pick. She won her debut and was second in her first start off the bench last time out; #6 AVA K’S GIRL: Flew late to be fourth going shorter in her return to the races last month. She won her debut over this surface, and if she can stretch out to two turns, she’ll have a chance to hit the board at a big price.

R8

Beautiful Memories
Hopeful Princess
Queen Arella

#3 BEAUTIFUL MEMORIES: Couldn’t have been much more impressive when romping by 10 lengths in her debut at Churchill Downs. She comes in off of two straight five-furlong bullets at Churchill, and she’ll be a legitimate, short-priced favorite; #8 HOPEFUL PRINCESS: Was shipped to the barn of Steve Asmussen after winning her debut in May in fast fashion. The local work tab is promising, and there’s precocity up and down in her pedigree (by Not This Time, out of a More Than Ready mare); #6 QUEEN ARELLA: Had an adventurous trip in her debut, when she overcame trouble to win by four lengths. This spot is a significant step up for her, but Joel Rosario signs on and her closing at first asking may hint at some potential.

R9

Candy Tycoon
Modernist
Celtic Striker

#5 CANDY TYCOON: Has chased some of the best 3-year-olds in the country of late and most recently ran second behind the classy Rushie at Oaklawn. This spot can be seen as a class drop, and it’s tough to argue with the Pletcher/Velazquez duo in a Saratoga stakes race; #3 MODERNIST: Had nothing left late when seventh in the Grade 1 Belmont, but he might have needed that race off a bit of a freshening. He’s a definite contender if he runs back to his winter/spring form, which included a win in the Grade 2 Risen Star; #4 CELTIC STRIKER: Beat just one rival in the Easy Goer, but may be worth a look. All three of his wins have been in wire-to-wire fashion, and he might well make the lead in here. If he does, he could get brave and hang on for a piece of it.

R10

Doll
Grudge
Shannon’s Girl

#2 DOLL: Gets a reluctant nod in a perplexing Opening Day finale. Her first start for new trainer Brad Cox was solid, as she ran a close-up second when returning to turf. A step forward will make her tough, but she’s run second a lot, and that’s not encouraging; #4 GRUDGE: Drops in for a tag second off the layoff and almost certainly needed her seasonal debut. She won going short on turf at Gulfstream three back, and nothing says she can’t step forward here; #12 SHANNON’S GIRL: Draws a terrible post but is a consistent check-getter that can run on well late. She wasn’t too far behind Doll last time out, and she was an OK second at this route last summer.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/11/19, OPENING DAY)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

It’s time for another year of fun in the bankroll section! For those of you unfamiliar, I get a mythical $1,000 bankroll to bet however I wish between now and Labor Day, with all results tracked in this section. Last year, we were fortunate enough to turn a profit here, and I’m hoping for similar results this time around.

I’ll use this space for some fun stuff, too. Got something you want tackled? Tweet me at @AndrewChampagne, and your question/comment may very well wind up in print!

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll keep my first play of the year simple. One of my favorite horses to play at Saratoga is a front-runner in an inner-turf race with very little other speed signed on. This applies in the fourth, as #5 GOSILENTLY could get a dream trip at a fair price. I’ll bet $10 on him to win and place, and as usual, all bets on turf races assume those events stay on the grass.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

– – – – –

BEST BET: Giant Zinger, Race 7
LONGSHOT: Elektronic, Race 9

R1

Tiz No Bluff
Real Dan
Curlin’s New Moon

#6 TIZ NO BLUFF: Is the lone runner in here with a win going two turns on dirt and exits an easy victory against weaker foes at Belmont. His tactical speed should be a plus given the added distance; #7 REAL DAN: Drops in for a tag after two failed efforts at Belmont, but it’s possible he may not have liked that track. He was 2-for-2 at Aqueduct, and a repeat of those efforts puts him in the mix; #8 CURLIN’S NEW MOON: Capitalized on a perfect trip last time out at Belmont. It’s encouraging that Jose Ortiz gets back aboard, and he could sit a nice stalking trip.

R2

Ahead of Plan (MTO)
Sayyaaf
Declined

#2 SAYYAAF: Has burned money in his last two starts, but this seems like a far weaker spot. The shortened trip should help as well, and he’ll likely be a popular multi-race exotics single if this stays on the grass; #12 DECLINED: Drew a terrible post, but was competitive in two starts on turf at Churchill Downs. He’s got some early zip, but he may need to use it; #4 HURRICANE JAKE: Adds Lasix and gets a better draw today than he did last time out. He hasn’t run terribly in his prior outings, and we may get a price given the smaller barn. DIRT SELECTIONS: AHEAD OF PLAN, OFF THE RECORD, UP AND ONWARD.

R3

Growth Engine
Potomac
Walkoff

#6 GROWTH ENGINE: Has had some gate issues of late, but has still taken significant steps forward in each start to date. He’s shown he can win going two turns, and the worktab at Monmouth looks very sharp; #4 POTOMAC: Had every chance on the Belmont undercard when second as the favorite, but he’s run four strong races in a row and won for fun over this track last summer; #2 WALKOFF: Tries two turns for the first time and merits respect given the connections. He’s shown plenty of talent, but may need more pace than he figures to get in this spot.

R4

Indigo Yankee (MTO)
Gosilently
Mr. Discretionary

#5 GOSILENTLY: Has hit the board in 15 of 16 lifetime turf starts and could sit an ideal trip on or near the lead through friendly fractions. The most recent workout hints that he’s ready to go off the bench, and if he gets an easy lead, look out; #3 MR. DISCRETIONARY: Gets a class test after beating weaker foes last time out at Monmouth. Jose Lezcano hops aboard after a tremendous meet at Belmont, and he’s shown an ability to make up ground late; #2 LOCAL HERO: Hasn’t won in a while, but ran very well against similar company at Churchill last month. He could be on the upswing after a trainer change earlier in the year. DIRT SELECTIONS: INDIGO YANKEE, AUTOSTRADE, WILDERNESS GATE.

R5

Aubrey Tate
Funfetti
Love Me Tomorrow

#8 AUBREY TATE: Gets a tepid nod in a wide-open maiden race. Sire Bayern is off to a fast start at stud, and dam D’wild Ride is a multiple stakes-winning sprinter that has already thrown three other winners; #9 FUNFETTI: Debuts for a barn that can get horses ready to run right away. Several of her works hint that she can run, and Jose Ortiz getting the call is encouraging; #2 LOVE ME TOMORROW: Has an experience edge on most of these and was an OK third in her debut. This barn merits respect, and perhaps she’s improved, but that race didn’t hit me as a strong one, so I’ll try to beat her.

R6

Morgantown (MTO)
Pipes
Generazio entry

#9 PIPES: Comes back to turf in his first start for a new barn and ran well at this route last summer. I’m not crazy about the post, but it’s not as bad as it could be and late-running types can overcome it by saving ground early; GENERAZIO ENTRY: I prefer #1A VETERANS BEACH, who won here on debut last August and cuts back in distance after a failed try against stakes goes. #1 MAGICAL TALE, though, could be a factor if he runs back to his two-back effort; #4 FLED: Aired by more than five lengths at Laurel last month in his turf debut. His connections had been trying to get him on the grass, and it’s possible this is what he’s wanted all along. DIRT SELECTIONS: MORGANTOWN, PIPES, GIANT BOO BOO.

R7

Giant Zinger
Cartwheel (MTO)
Wegetsdamunnys

#4 GIANT ZINGER: Gets significant class relief after three straight tries against graded stakes competition. This is a far easier spot, and she showed she could win here a season ago; #10 WEGETSDAMONEYS: Hasn’t won in more than a year, but was fourth beaten just two lengths in a classy NY-bred stakes race in May. She’ll be running well late, and an early speed duel would certainly help her; #6 BAREEQA: Merits a look in the exotics at a big price. She’s shown she prefers two-turn routes of ground and has three wins and a third in five starts over this turf course. Perhaps she’s peaked, but the two-back win hints that there may be more in the tank. DIRT SELECTIONS: CARTWHEEL, MAIDEN BEAUTY, ELEGANT JEN.

R8

Aurelia Garland
Kiss the Girl
Shippy

#8 AURELIA GARLAND: Won for fun in her debut at Belmont, where she went five furlongs in :57 and change. A repeat of that effort would give her a big shot in a wide-open renewal of the Schuylerville; #9 KISS THE GIRL: Represents the formidable Pletcher/Velazquez tandem and can’t be ignored off a strong win in her debut. Her two works since that race were good, and she gets a cushy outside draw; #1 SHIPPY: Looked like a freak in her debut win at Laurel, after which she was sold and transferred to new trainer Doug O’Neill. If she’s ready, she probably wins, but the one work since her debut win isn’t ideal, nor is the rail draw. At her likely price, I’ll only be using her defensively.

R9

Abyssinian
Sombeyay
Elektronic

#1 ABYSSINIAN: Has yet to run a bad race and most recently picked up a pair of checks in ungraded stakes on the Kentucky circuit. She faces the boys here, but she’s in strong form and could be tough if she fires her best shot; #10 SOMBEYAY: Tries turf for the first time and is bred to love it. That pedigree (one resulting in an insanely-high 351 turf Tomlinson number) and his late-running style could be enough to overcome the outside post; #2 ELEKTRONIC: Was rated in a paceless race last time out and should get plenty of speed to run at here. His wins two and three back were sharp, and I think he outruns his morning line odds.

R10

Countenance (MTO)
Claddagh’s Run
Darling of the Spa

#4 CLADDAGH’S RUN: Stepped forward on the drop last time out with a strong late move for second and gets two turns here. There’s some speed signed on, and I think she’ll be moving the right way late in the game; #5 DARLING OF THE SPA: Has worked well ahead of her debut and merits respect for strong connections. It’s tough to win going long at first asking, but she may not have to be much to beat these; #9 TO A FRIEND: Drops in class after setting the pace in a turf marathon last time out. Blinkers come on in this spot, and she’s one of a few that figures to want control going by the stands the first time. DIRT SELECTIONS: COUNTENANCE, DARLING OF THE SPA, DOTTIE’S SPIRIT.