Schuylerville | Andrew Champagne

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/14/22; OPENING DAY)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

Last summer was the best summer of my career as a published handicapper. I led all members of the local media with 142 top-pick winners, those top-pick winners generated a positive ROI ($2.04, if you’re curious), and I turned a $277.10 profit in this bankroll section over the course of the meet.

In addition to the picks and analysis you can find in The Pink Sheet and online at AndrewChampagne.com every day, I’ll be playing with a $1,000 bankroll and offering daily wagering insight. As usual, all wagers assume races carded for turf stay there. Surface changes void all plays.

Finally, one quick note before we get started. Juan Vazquez has two horses entered on today’s card. Pennsylvania just suspended him through Jan. 26, 2025, and used words like “grossly negligent, cruel, and abusive.” Why is he allowed to run here? NYRA needs to fix this, and fix this quickly.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: With the blessing of an editor working on deadline, we’ll focus on the Opening Day nightcap, which houses my best bet of the day. #5 FAST COREY drops in for a tag and has shown blazing early speed. I’ll keep it simple, play a $30 win ticket, and hope she makes every pole a winning one at or near the 7/2 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Fast Corey, Race 10
Longshot: Angitude, Race 7

Giocare
Bear Alley
Kershaw

#7 GIOCARE: Has precisely the right running style to perform well in a lid-lifter that seems loaded with early speed. This deep closer has run well at this level multiple times, got claimed back by Orlando Noda, and should be running well late when others may be pleading for the wire; #6 BEAR ALLEY: Comes in off of two straight wins at Churchill Downs and goes first off the claim for Bill Morey, who excels with new acquisitions. He makes sense, but it’s worth noting he’s 5-for-6 beneath the Twin Spires and 0-for-13 everywhere else; #9 KERSHAW: Drops in for a tag for the first time since February, when he won easily in a two-turn race at this level at Oaklawn. He’s another that should benefit from the likely race shape, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride.

Half a Chance
Chocolate Gelato
Two Minute Drill

#1 HALF A CHANCE: Is the lone runner with experience in the first 2-year-old race of the meet, and she did everything but win last time out. She was beaten less than a length, was five lengths clear of the third-place finisher, and has since worked well twice at Keeneland; #6 CHOCOLATE GELATO: Hammered for $475,000 earlier this year and has been training steadily for Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher. The outside draw is a plus, and it wouldn’t be shocking if these connections had their first debutante of the season ready to go; #5 TWO MINUTE DRILL: Sold for $210,000 (seven times the sire’s stud fee) and is out of a Grade 1-winning sprinter. The works seem solid enough, and she may be a big enough price to provide value in vertical exotics.

No Burn (MTO)
High Tide
Grand Journey

#4 HIGH TIDE: Takes a significant class drop after a strong spring downstate. He topped starter allowance foes twice before finishing a fast-closing fourth against optional claiming foes. Jose Lezcano knows this one well and should get plenty of pace to chase; #9 GRAND JOURNEY: Topped $25,000 claimers last time out and climbs up the ladder here. This is a tough spot for the level, but he fits on figures, boasts considerable back class, and has enough early speed to work out an ideal trip; #2 BE HERE: Has won two in a row with a pair of wildly-different trips. He wired them last time out at Delaware Park after making up as many as 15 lengths two back. This high-percentage outfit must be respected.

Cheeky Tico (MTO)
Remote
Grand Cay

#3 REMOTE: Makes the most sense in a puzzling turf marathon. He was second at this distance downstate last time, Joel Rosario sees fit to ride back for Christophe Clement, and he should at least have enough tactical speed to be reasonably close early; #5 GRAND CAY: Adds blinkers for Shug McGaughey and was a bit wide last time when fourth behind a much-the-best winner. The rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., is noteworthy, and perhaps the blinkers will get him a bit more engaged early; #1 TIZ A GIANT: Is bred to run all day long and makes his first marathon start here. He’s by Tiznow, out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, and has every right to improve at a price against a group that doesn’t seem to include any world-beaters.

Majority Partner
Tommy Gun
Catching Cupid

#3 MAJORITY PARTNER: Hasn’t started since April but has been working very well here and runs for a claiming tag for the first time. He showed speed against a better group last time, and he stands a big chance if he’s ready to fire; #4 TOMMY GUNN: Adds blinkers in his first start as a gelding. He’s another dropping into the maiden claiming rank for a sharp outfit, and Irad rides back; #2 CATCHING CUPID: Probably needed his last-out effort, which doubled as his first try since November. Charlton Baker trainees tend to move forward second off the bench, and such an improvement may be enough in this wide-open sprint.

Life Changer (MTO)
King Moonracer
Just Say When

#9 KING MOONRACER: Merits respect as a closer in a race full of early speed. His 2022 debut off a long break was sharp, as he just missed when second at this level downstate. Castellano fits him well, and he’s the one they’ll have to hold off late; #4 JUST SAY WHEN: Has a win and two seconds from three starts and runs two straight races without a layoff line for the first time. He was second in a pretty fast turf sprint two back at Gulfstream and has shown he doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well; #1 STARRYSTARRYKNIGHT: Benefited from a race that fell apart late to get out of the maiden ranks. This is a steep class hike, but the abundance of early zip in here may mean this one has a shot to pick up the pieces for a minor award at a big price.

Angitude
Tarabi
Gina Romantica

#4 ANGITUDE: Stretches out after a first-level allowance score at Churchill and has a running style that hints she’ll like this route. Smart money says inside speed will do well out of the new Wilson chute, and it’s tough to imagine this speedy daughter of Violence being taken back early; #7 TARABI: Has yet to run a bad race in her four-start career, one that includes a pair of minor awards in Grade 1 races. On talent, she more than fits here, but the outside draw could present a real obstacle given the extremely short run into the turn; #2 GINA ROMANTICA: Has a record that looks miles better if you draw a line through the Grade 3 Beaumont, where no horse was beating Matareya. The third-place finisher from her last race has since come back to win, and while I unfortunately doubt we’ll get the 8-1 morning line price given the connections, she merits respect in the first stakes race of the 2022 season.

Customer List
Canisy
Santa Giulia

#6 CUSTOMER LIST: Was probably entered in the Penn Oaks just to make sure the race went. That event was won by the classy Haughty, and there are no such monsters here. She gets Lasix for the first time second off the bench, has posted two straight bullet drills, and looks well-meant for powerhouse connections; #1 CANISY: Just missed last time out after rating in an event completely devoid of early speed. There seems to be some pace to chase in here, and she’s got a big chance if Javier Castellano can work out a trip from the inside draw; #13 SANTA GIULIA: Needs a scratch to draw in but merits a look if she runs. She gets Lasix in her stateside debut after breaking her maiden overseas and, like my top pick, has posted back-to-back bullet works for Chad Brown.

Summer Promise
Just Cindy
Vedareo

#9 SUMMER PROMISE: Never looked like a loser in her debut, where she won by five lengths and ran to her lofty $500,000 price tag. Her lone recorded drill since that race was a smashing four-furlong move at Churchill, and she looms large for D. Wayne Lukas in the Grade 3 Schuylerville; #1 JUST CINDY: Showed some maturity at first asking, when she rallied from fourth to win going away. That’s not an easy thing for a debuting runner to do, and she may have developed quickly enough to overcome the rail draw against a speedy group; #4 VEDAREO: Was bet like she couldn’t lose in her debut at Parx, which she won easily enough. The most recent works indicate that wasn’t a fluke, and when this barn comes up from Philadelphia with 2-year-olds, those runners are usually well-meant.

R10

Fast Corey
Mommasgottarun (MTO)
Rigby

#5 FAST COREY: Has posted insane early fractions in all three of her starts to date and runs for a tag for the first time. These are aggressive connections, so the drop doesn’t concern me, and I just cannot see any other runner coming close to this one early on. Such a scenario would make her very tough to catch late; #4 RIGBY: Nearly capitalized on the drop into the claiming ranks when a close second last month at Belmont. She wound up on the lead that day, but she’s also shown she can rate, which gives Luis Saez plenty of options; #9 QUEENS DANCER: Will be a big price after shipping in from Finger Lakes, but her lone turf start to date is probably the best race of her career. They went pretty fast early on that day, and it’s logical to think a return to the lawn will be to her benefit. Perhaps a win is too much to ask, but I wouldn’t be surprised if she hits the board at a large number in the Opening Day finale.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/15/21; OPENING DAY)

Posted on July 13, 2021 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

Happy Opening Day, everyone! I’m excited to be back for another year, and I’m looking forward to hopefully helping you have some fun times at one of horse racing’s last remaining cathedrals.

If you’re new, here’s how this works: All of my stuff will be available in print in The Pink Sheet and online at AndrewChampagne.com. I’m in California and work a day in advance to mitigate the time difference. Wednesday’s content will be online Monday night, Thursday’s content will be up Tuesday night, and so on.

In addition to my selections in the pick box and detailed analysis of every race, I’ll have this space, which offers room for some quick thoughts and a bankroll play for each day of racing. If you’ve got any questions or comments you want me to address, tweet me at @AndrewChampagne. I’m an easy guy to connect with, and I’m always happy to engage with folks who enjoy my stuff. Let’s make some money!

THURSDAY’S PLAY: We begin with a reminder that all action assumes races carded for the turf stay there, and that surface changes render tickets null and void. With that in mind, if the sixth race stays on the lawn, I love #2 ALBA’S STAR, who looks like the lone speed second off the bench and returns to a two-turn route she’s shown she loves. I’ll kick off the meet with a $25 win bet on that one.

TOTAL WAGERED: $25.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Lady Scarlet, Race 5
Longshot: Skyro, Race 3

Wagon Boss
Grit and Glory
Charlie’sarchangel

#4 WAGON BOSS: Gets a tepid nod in a pretty wide-open lid-lifter. He beat a similar-level field last time out at Churchill and may get the type of stalking trip he’s shown he prefers beneath world-class jockey Joel Rosario; #7 GRIT AND GLORY: Has a chance to win the first race of the meet for the second year in a row. He’s got back races that are good enough to win this, and he’s shown he can rally late, which could come in handy in a race that appears to have plenty of early speed; #5 CHARLIE’SARCHANGEL: Finished a half-length behind my top pick last time out and has since moved to the barn of Robertino Diodoro, who’s very strong with new acquisitions. He may go favored, and he’s not without a chance, but he hasn’t won in a while and sure seemed like he lost with a perfect trip when we last saw him run.

Speedometer
Zmuda
Microbiome

#9 SPEEDOMETER: Ran like a horse that needed her debut effort in last month’s unveiling at Churchill Downs, when she was third behind a good-looking winner that’ll take money in today’s co-feature. She’s a full sister to hard-knocking sprinter Nitrous, her experience should help her, and the outside draw should allow her to settle down a bit; #7 ZMUDA: Made a mild move to be fourth in her first start, and she did so for a barn whose first-time starters often need a race. Her work tab includes some fast moves at Keeneland, and she’s another eligible to move forward; #4 MICROBIOME: Hammered for $100,000 at auction last September and is working like a good horse. Pay attention to the track condition, as her pedigree (by Twirling Candy, out of a Smoke Glacken mare) says she’ll move up over a wet surface.

Wudda U Think Now (MTO)
St. Joe Louis
Skyro

#9 ST. JOE LOUIS: Came north after a frustrating debut at Tampa Bay Downs and walloped a field that included a next-out winner. This is his first try out of the maiden ranks, but he’s bred to be a very good horse and it’s not like this field has any monsters in it; #4 SKYRO: Tries turf for the first time and has a bottom-side pedigree that says he’ll love it. His dam is kin to a horse named Jambalaya, who was one of the better turf routers in the country in his day, and this one’s shown enough talent on dirt to intrigue at his likely price; #7 SO SUAVE: Makes his U.S. debut off of a long break, but gets Lasix for the first time and is certainly in capable hands. His best races overseas came over firmer going, which may be the reason he was sent here after showing enough promise to be 4-1 in a Group 3 last summer.

Gem Key (MTO)
Ocean Air
Big Bad Diva

#12 OCEAN AIR: Has run well twice at this level downstate and goes back to two turns, a configuration she won over in Florida. It sure seems like there’s a lot of early zip in this field, and I think she’s likely to be rolling late; #10 BIG BAD DIVA: Comes in off a freshening and will make her first start since March. She has tactical speed but doesn’t necessarily need the lead to run well, and she’s yet to miss the board in five career starts; #1 CLADDAGH’S RUN: Certainly moves up in class after several wins against claimers at Tampa, but there’s no denying she’s in good form and would benefit from a pace meltdown. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez sees fit to ride for George Weaver, and nothing says she can’t get a piece of this at a bit of a price.

Lady Scarlet
Solasta
Echo Zulu

#3 LADY SCARLET: Dueled through fast fractions in her debut, when she was second beaten less than two lengths and topped the third-place finisher by four. Her recent bullet drill over the training track jumps off the page, and between her experience and evident talent, I think she’ll be quite imposing; #6 SOLASTA: Sold for $300,000 at auction last year and sports several fast works over this track. She’s a half-sister to Grade 1-winning sprinter Mia Mischief, and everything here says she’s got lots of talent; #7 ECHO ZULU: Also sold for $300,000 a year ago and is by promising first-crop sire Gun Runner. Among her half-siblings are Grade 1 winner Echo Town and Grade 3 winner J Boys Echo, and if there’s any hesitation here, it’s because I think she may want a bit more ground.

Courageous Girl (MTO)
Alba’s Star
Jazzy Lady

#2 ALBA’S STAR: Looks like the lone speed in this inner turf event, and that’s always incredibly dangerous. She set a pretty fast pace for the level last time out and was third behind a next-out winner. A return to two turns should help her, and she could sit a very easy trip; #11 JAZZY LADY: Was claimed back by Ray Handal last time and exits a win over a weaker group at Churchill. The outside post is far from ideal, but she overcame a funky trip when we last saw her, and Rosario’s presence is a plus; #10 TWO CENT TOOTSIE: Drops into restricted claiming company after knocking heads with solid state-breds in her two most recent outings. This sure seems like an easier spot, and perhaps she can use her tactical speed to clear most of the field going into the first turn.

Pletcher entry
Dack Janiel’s
Dust Devil

PLETCHER ENTRY: I prefer #1 ARHAM, who’s run several races fast enough to get the job done here. He tries two turns for the first time, and his pedigree says he’ll love that journey; #4 DACK JANIEL’S: Got pretty good late last year when third beaten two lengths in a Grade 2 on the Breeders’ Cup undercard. His most recent effort at Churchill was pretty good, and he’d certainly benefit from any moisture in the track (rain, not whiskey); #8 DUST DEVIL: Makes his first start for Bill Mott and does so while returning to two turns. He splashed home to a six-length score in his last two-turn outing and was most recently third in the same race my top pick exits.

Golden Pal
Jaxon Traveler
Rebel Posse

#3 GOLDEN PAL: Ran one of the most impressive races of the 2020 season here when he romped in the Skidmore Stakes at this route. We haven’t seen him since the Breeders’ Cup, but he’s working well ahead of his return and would be a handful if he’s ready to run; #9 JAXON TRAVELER: Looms the main danger and has not finished worse than second in seven career starts. He was a decent second on a synthetic surface last time out, and there’s every reason to believe turf won’t be a problem; #8 REBEL POSSE: Is undefeated in two turf starts and showed an impressive turn of foot last time out. If you believe Golden Pal needs a race, or that he could be compromised by a speed duel, this one makes sense as a price play.

Pretty Birdie
Happy Soul
Cartel Queen

#1 PRETTY BIRDIE: Won her debut impressively, and if that day’s third-place finisher runs well in the second race, it could bode well for this Norm Casse trainee. She appears to have bounced out of her unveiling well, and she’d be a popular winner given the name on the “owner” line; #7 HAPPY SOUL: Romped in two races downstate for 2-year-old maestro Wesley Ward and will almost certainly go favored. This daughter of a horse I will not name (not until I get the same money everyone else is getting, Mattress Mack!) has shown precocity, but this seems like a far stronger group, and any regression would make her vulnerable at a short price; #9 CARTEL QUEEN: Adds blinkers after a professional victory last time out at Churchill. She’s fired back-to-back bullets ahead of her first try against winners, and seeing Tom Amoss and Irad Ortiz, Jr., at 12-1 is undoubtedly enticing.

R10

Ruse
Big Georges Kingdm
Clever Fellow

#12 RUSE: Stayed on well when pressing a very fast pace for the level in his first start since January. He adds Lasix for this race, and his lone two-turn effort saw him run a close-up second at Aqueduct; #10 BIG GEORGES KINGDM: Makes his turf debut and has a pedigree that says he’ll like the footing. He’s by Animal Kingdom, out of a Big Brown mare, and comes in off of back-to-back second-place finishes this past spring against OK groups on dirt; #8 CLEVER FELLOW: Will likely be a pretty heavy favorite given his connections, but I see several red flags. He’s been a beaten chalk in each of his last three starts, it’s his first time going two turns, and why have they waited until now to add blinkers? At his probable price, I can’t endorse him on top.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/16/20; OPENING DAY)

Posted on July 15, 2020 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

A lot has changed in the last 10 months, and this summer features a far, far different Saratoga meet. However, I’m grateful to be back for another go-round in The Pink Sheet, both in the pick box (where I’ll look for a fifth Pink Sheet title in seven years) and with this bankroll section (where I’ll look to grow an initial $1,000 stake between now at Labor Day). Quick reminder: All plays in this section assume races carded for turf stay there, and early scratches void the action of the horses involved.

All of my stuff will be available on AndrewChampagne.com far in advance. If you have a question or something for me to potentially write about, tweet me at @AndrewChampagne. My DM’s are open, and I respond to almost everything that gets sent in. It’s a tough time for a lot of people (self included; rest in peace, Nana), and I’ll gladly do anything I can to brighten the spirits of my readers.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the ninth race, the Grade 3 Peter Pan. #5 CANDY TYCOON hits me as a square price anywhere close to his 5-1 morning line price. I’ll key him in $3 exactas above and below #3 MODERNIST and #4 CELTIC STRIKER, and play Candy Tycoon to win and place for $4 as well.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Astoria Kitten, Race 7
Longshot: Grudge, Race 10

Guy Caballero
Grit and Glory
Jerome Avenue

#6 GUY CABALLERO: Hasn’t run in a while but drops down the class ladder for aggressive connections. He was third in a Grade 2 just last year, and he’s shown he can run well going two turns; #2 GRIT AND GLORY: May get a solid setup at a bit of a price. There’s a good amount of early speed in here, and he could be in line to pick up the pieces in his second start off the bench; #7 JEROME AVENUE: Makes his first start for new trainer Rob Atras and is another taking a drop in class. He was third going two turns over this oval late last year, and Atras has hit at a 23% clip of late with new acquisitions.

Scanno
Leading West
Magic Mojo

#10 SCANNO: Might provide a bit of value in here given the field size and runners from higher-profile barns. He and rider Javier Castellano may inherit the early lead given a relative lack of early zip, and he might not have to improve much off of a recent third-place effort downstate; #1 LEADING WEST: Drops in for a tag for the first time after running second several times against straight maidens. On paper, he makes sense, but I’m wary of him given the likely race shape, which may not favor his late-running style; #7 MAGIC MOJO: Might be worth another shot after a dud first time out. He didn’t have the best start in that race, and he’s bred to be far better than what he showed in his unveiling.

Glass Ceiling
Palace Avenger
Carrizo

#4 GLASS CEILING: Is a pace play for me in a confounding five-horse event. Unlike many of her rivals, she doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well, and her three wins around one turn are also encouraging; #3 PALACE AVENGER: Came back running when second at Churchill in her 2020 debut. Her 85 Beyer Speed Figure may indicate she’s turned a corner, although she may have opposition up front early on; #1 CARRIZO: Hasn’t won since September of last year, but she does her best running at the Spa. She’s won twice in three local starts, and she could easily outrun her odds.

Valletta
Palace Duchess
Gran Chemin

#5 VALLETTA: Cuts back in distance in her first start for Carlos Martin and gets a nod based on experience. Her most recent workout was very solid, and the presence of Javier Castellano is a plus; #4 PALACE DUCHESS: Was bet down to 1/5 odds in her debut last April at Keeneland, when she ran third and went to the sidelines. Her workouts have been consistent, and Wesley Ward can get horses ready to run as well as anyone; #7 GRAN CHEMIN: Was asked to go two turns in her lone career start to date. That’s never an easy thing to do, and that race produced several stakes-quality horses. Perhaps she needs a run off the bench, but if she’s ready, she’s got a shot at a nice number.

Dark Money
The Caretaker
Thorny Tale

#5 DARK MONEY: Has won five of his last eight starts dating back to last summer and recently cruised to a three-length win over allowance foes downstate. He’s one of only a few in here not exiting the same race on June 19th, and his usual race makes him the one to catch; #8 THE CARETAKER: Won that June 19th event in his first start for Tom Morley and returns to a track where he’s won two of four starts. If they go fast early, he’s one of the ones who stands to benefit, and he should be doing his best running late; #7 THORNY TALE: Beat winners for the first time in his 2020 debut and takes a step up in class here. However, Castellano rides back, and there’s a chance he’s figuring things out as a 4-year-old.

Brees Bayou (MTO)
Ward entry
Propensity

WARD ENTRY: Either entrant can win, but I prefer #2 MR EVERYTHING, who’s been working lights-out downstate and may relish the cutback in distance. #2B GRANDMAS FAVORITE is also a contender, having run several OK turf sprints before an extended hiatus; #9 PROPENSITY: Drops down in class after many opportunities against straight maidens. Perhaps the drop wakes him up, but his best races have come going longer elsewhere, so I’ll try to beat him; #6 NO BAD DAYS: Is worth a look underneath at a big number. He ran into multiple stakes winner Decorated Invader in his lone turf start and may relish a return to the surface against a weaker field.

Astoria Kitten
Summer At The Spa
Ava K’s Girl

#1 ASTORIA KITTEN: Has the speed to utilize the rail to her advantage going long on the inner turf. That could prove dangerous in a race without much other early speed, and she has the talent to lead this field every step of the way; #9 SUMMER AT THE SPA: Is an ultimate hunch play that will benefit if a rival goes with my top pick. She won her debut and was second in her first start off the bench last time out; #6 AVA K’S GIRL: Flew late to be fourth going shorter in her return to the races last month. She won her debut over this surface, and if she can stretch out to two turns, she’ll have a chance to hit the board at a big price.

Beautiful Memories
Hopeful Princess
Queen Arella

#3 BEAUTIFUL MEMORIES: Couldn’t have been much more impressive when romping by 10 lengths in her debut at Churchill Downs. She comes in off of two straight five-furlong bullets at Churchill, and she’ll be a legitimate, short-priced favorite; #8 HOPEFUL PRINCESS: Was shipped to the barn of Steve Asmussen after winning her debut in May in fast fashion. The local work tab is promising, and there’s precocity up and down in her pedigree (by Not This Time, out of a More Than Ready mare); #6 QUEEN ARELLA: Had an adventurous trip in her debut, when she overcame trouble to win by four lengths. This spot is a significant step up for her, but Joel Rosario signs on and her closing at first asking may hint at some potential.

Candy Tycoon
Modernist
Celtic Striker

#5 CANDY TYCOON: Has chased some of the best 3-year-olds in the country of late and most recently ran second behind the classy Rushie at Oaklawn. This spot can be seen as a class drop, and it’s tough to argue with the Pletcher/Velazquez duo in a Saratoga stakes race; #3 MODERNIST: Had nothing left late when seventh in the Grade 1 Belmont, but he might have needed that race off a bit of a freshening. He’s a definite contender if he runs back to his winter/spring form, which included a win in the Grade 2 Risen Star; #4 CELTIC STRIKER: Beat just one rival in the Easy Goer, but may be worth a look. All three of his wins have been in wire-to-wire fashion, and he might well make the lead in here. If he does, he could get brave and hang on for a piece of it.

R10

Doll
Grudge
Shannon’s Girl

#2 DOLL: Gets a reluctant nod in a perplexing Opening Day finale. Her first start for new trainer Brad Cox was solid, as she ran a close-up second when returning to turf. A step forward will make her tough, but she’s run second a lot, and that’s not encouraging; #4 GRUDGE: Drops in for a tag second off the layoff and almost certainly needed her seasonal debut. She won going short on turf at Gulfstream three back, and nothing says she can’t step forward here; #12 SHANNON’S GIRL: Draws a terrible post but is a consistent check-getter that can run on well late. She wasn’t too far behind Doll last time out, and she was an OK second at this route last summer.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/11/19, OPENING DAY)

Posted on July 10, 2019 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

It’s time for another year of fun in the bankroll section! For those of you unfamiliar, I get a mythical $1,000 bankroll to bet however I wish between now and Labor Day, with all results tracked in this section. Last year, we were fortunate enough to turn a profit here, and I’m hoping for similar results this time around.

I’ll use this space for some fun stuff, too. Got something you want tackled? Tweet me at @AndrewChampagne, and your question/comment may very well wind up in print!

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll keep my first play of the year simple. One of my favorite horses to play at Saratoga is a front-runner in an inner-turf race with very little other speed signed on. This applies in the fourth, as #5 GOSILENTLY could get a dream trip at a fair price. I’ll bet $10 on him to win and place, and as usual, all bets on turf races assume those events stay on the grass.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

– – – – –

BEST BET: Giant Zinger, Race 7
LONGSHOT: Elektronic, Race 9

Tiz No Bluff
Real Dan
Curlin’s New Moon

#6 TIZ NO BLUFF: Is the lone runner in here with a win going two turns on dirt and exits an easy victory against weaker foes at Belmont. His tactical speed should be a plus given the added distance; #7 REAL DAN: Drops in for a tag after two failed efforts at Belmont, but it’s possible he may not have liked that track. He was 2-for-2 at Aqueduct, and a repeat of those efforts puts him in the mix; #8 CURLIN’S NEW MOON: Capitalized on a perfect trip last time out at Belmont. It’s encouraging that Jose Ortiz gets back aboard, and he could sit a nice stalking trip.

Ahead of Plan (MTO)
Sayyaaf
Declined

#2 SAYYAAF: Has burned money in his last two starts, but this seems like a far weaker spot. The shortened trip should help as well, and he’ll likely be a popular multi-race exotics single if this stays on the grass; #12 DECLINED: Drew a terrible post, but was competitive in two starts on turf at Churchill Downs. He’s got some early zip, but he may need to use it; #4 HURRICANE JAKE: Adds Lasix and gets a better draw today than he did last time out. He hasn’t run terribly in his prior outings, and we may get a price given the smaller barn. DIRT SELECTIONS: AHEAD OF PLAN, OFF THE RECORD, UP AND ONWARD.

Growth Engine
Potomac
Walkoff

#6 GROWTH ENGINE: Has had some gate issues of late, but has still taken significant steps forward in each start to date. He’s shown he can win going two turns, and the worktab at Monmouth looks very sharp; #4 POTOMAC: Had every chance on the Belmont undercard when second as the favorite, but he’s run four strong races in a row and won for fun over this track last summer; #2 WALKOFF: Tries two turns for the first time and merits respect given the connections. He’s shown plenty of talent, but may need more pace than he figures to get in this spot.

Indigo Yankee (MTO)
Gosilently
Mr. Discretionary

#5 GOSILENTLY: Has hit the board in 15 of 16 lifetime turf starts and could sit an ideal trip on or near the lead through friendly fractions. The most recent workout hints that he’s ready to go off the bench, and if he gets an easy lead, look out; #3 MR. DISCRETIONARY: Gets a class test after beating weaker foes last time out at Monmouth. Jose Lezcano hops aboard after a tremendous meet at Belmont, and he’s shown an ability to make up ground late; #2 LOCAL HERO: Hasn’t won in a while, but ran very well against similar company at Churchill last month. He could be on the upswing after a trainer change earlier in the year. DIRT SELECTIONS: INDIGO YANKEE, AUTOSTRADE, WILDERNESS GATE.

Aubrey Tate
Funfetti
Love Me Tomorrow

#8 AUBREY TATE: Gets a tepid nod in a wide-open maiden race. Sire Bayern is off to a fast start at stud, and dam D’wild Ride is a multiple stakes-winning sprinter that has already thrown three other winners; #9 FUNFETTI: Debuts for a barn that can get horses ready to run right away. Several of her works hint that she can run, and Jose Ortiz getting the call is encouraging; #2 LOVE ME TOMORROW: Has an experience edge on most of these and was an OK third in her debut. This barn merits respect, and perhaps she’s improved, but that race didn’t hit me as a strong one, so I’ll try to beat her.

Morgantown (MTO)
Pipes
Generazio entry

#9 PIPES: Comes back to turf in his first start for a new barn and ran well at this route last summer. I’m not crazy about the post, but it’s not as bad as it could be and late-running types can overcome it by saving ground early; GENERAZIO ENTRY: I prefer #1A VETERANS BEACH, who won here on debut last August and cuts back in distance after a failed try against stakes goes. #1 MAGICAL TALE, though, could be a factor if he runs back to his two-back effort; #4 FLED: Aired by more than five lengths at Laurel last month in his turf debut. His connections had been trying to get him on the grass, and it’s possible this is what he’s wanted all along. DIRT SELECTIONS: MORGANTOWN, PIPES, GIANT BOO BOO.

Giant Zinger
Cartwheel (MTO)
Wegetsdamunnys

#4 GIANT ZINGER: Gets significant class relief after three straight tries against graded stakes competition. This is a far easier spot, and she showed she could win here a season ago; #10 WEGETSDAMONEYS: Hasn’t won in more than a year, but was fourth beaten just two lengths in a classy NY-bred stakes race in May. She’ll be running well late, and an early speed duel would certainly help her; #6 BAREEQA: Merits a look in the exotics at a big price. She’s shown she prefers two-turn routes of ground and has three wins and a third in five starts over this turf course. Perhaps she’s peaked, but the two-back win hints that there may be more in the tank. DIRT SELECTIONS: CARTWHEEL, MAIDEN BEAUTY, ELEGANT JEN.

Aurelia Garland
Kiss the Girl
Shippy

#8 AURELIA GARLAND: Won for fun in her debut at Belmont, where she went five furlongs in :57 and change. A repeat of that effort would give her a big shot in a wide-open renewal of the Schuylerville; #9 KISS THE GIRL: Represents the formidable Pletcher/Velazquez tandem and can’t be ignored off a strong win in her debut. Her two works since that race were good, and she gets a cushy outside draw; #1 SHIPPY: Looked like a freak in her debut win at Laurel, after which she was sold and transferred to new trainer Doug O’Neill. If she’s ready, she probably wins, but the one work since her debut win isn’t ideal, nor is the rail draw. At her likely price, I’ll only be using her defensively.

Abyssinian
Sombeyay
Elektronic

#1 ABYSSINIAN: Has yet to run a bad race and most recently picked up a pair of checks in ungraded stakes on the Kentucky circuit. She faces the boys here, but she’s in strong form and could be tough if she fires her best shot; #10 SOMBEYAY: Tries turf for the first time and is bred to love it. That pedigree (one resulting in an insanely-high 351 turf Tomlinson number) and his late-running style could be enough to overcome the outside post; #2 ELEKTRONIC: Was rated in a paceless race last time out and should get plenty of speed to run at here. His wins two and three back were sharp, and I think he outruns his morning line odds.

R10

Countenance (MTO)
Claddagh’s Run
Darling of the Spa

#4 CLADDAGH’S RUN: Stepped forward on the drop last time out with a strong late move for second and gets two turns here. There’s some speed signed on, and I think she’ll be moving the right way late in the game; #5 DARLING OF THE SPA: Has worked well ahead of her debut and merits respect for strong connections. It’s tough to win going long at first asking, but she may not have to be much to beat these; #9 TO A FRIEND: Drops in class after setting the pace in a turf marathon last time out. Blinkers come on in this spot, and she’s one of a few that figures to want control going by the stands the first time. DIRT SELECTIONS: COUNTENANCE, DARLING OF THE SPA, DOTTIE’S SPIRIT.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/20/18

Posted on July 18, 2018 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL: $1,000

Before we kick things off, I ask for a small favor: Take some time today to think about the friends and families of Mike Jarboe, Matt Graves, and Manny Ycaza, all of whom we’ve lost since last year’s closing day card. All three men loved Saratoga, and they’d have loved to be here on opening day.

Now, a quick introduction for those who are unfamiliar: In addition to the pick box, I’ll do a daily bankroll section with a few paragraphs of commentary and plays for the day. If you’ve got a question, a comment, or something you’d like to see me address here, tweet me at @AndrewChampagne. Finally, if you want to follow me all meet long, content will be posted to AndrewChampagne.com 36 hours or so in advance of each card.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the third race, which houses my best bet of the day. That’s #6 MONTELEONE, who takes a sizable class drop and has run well against much better competition. I’ll put $10 on him to win, and also key him in $2 doubles that start and end there. Those doubles use #1 TOO FOOFOO FOR YOU, #4 DRYNACHAN, and #9 MIKE’S GIRL in the second, and #4 DOMINANT STRATEGY, #6 AZZEDINE, and #9 TERYN IT UP in the fourth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $22

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Monteleone, Race 3
Longshot: Fightress, Race 8

Bad Student
Nobody Move
Halloween Horror

BAD STUDENT: May not have liked the quirky surface at Parx last time out, when he sat close to a solid pace and faded late. He showed strong two-turn form earlier this year at Oaklawn and should be prominent early; NOBODY MOVE: Showed a new dimension last time out when wiring the field at Belmont Park. A repeat of that effort would make him very competitive in this spot, though such a picture-perfect trip is unlikely; HALLOWEEN HORROR: Merits a look in the exotics at a price. His dirt race here last summer was OK, and he drops way down in class after running against much better company in his last three starts.

Drynachan
Too Foofoo for You
Mike’s Girl

DRYNACHAN: Has a stellar turf pedigree and is working well ahead of her debut for the formidable Chad Brown barn. If she runs to her works, she could be tough in her unveiling; TOO FOOFOO FOR YOU: Was second behind a next-out winner last month downstate. That early speed could make her the one to catch, although the rail draw is less than ideal; MIKE’S GIRL: Is by Scat Daddy and out of a mare that has produced a pair of winners. She’s worked well for a trainer that doesn’t always show off his runners’ talents in the mornings.

Monteleone
Fortythreeoeight N
Sicilia Mike

MONTELEONE: Lost all chance at the break last time out, so it’s easy to draw a line through that race. He hit the board in four straight starter allowance events before that and drops down in class significantly for aggressive connections; FORTYTHREEOEIGHT N: Comes back to the dirt second off the claim by Chris Englehart. His dirt races at Tampa this past winter were OK, and he could sit a perfect stalking trip at a nice price; SICILIA MIKE: Has made a heck of a living despite a 1 for 25 career mark to this point, with 10 seconds and five thirds to his credit. With a mark like that, it’s foolish to ignore him in vertical wagers.

Azzedine
Teryn It Up
Dominant Strategy

AZZEDINE: Has run second three times in four tries against maiden special weight foes and drops in for a tag for the first time. Javier Castellano climbs aboard for Chad Brown, whose numbers with similar droppers are astounding; TERYN IT UP: Adds blinkers on the drop in class for Brian Lynch and exits a swiftly-run maiden special weight at Belmont Park. It helps that John Velazquez rides back, and he figures to be in the mix early; DOMINANT STRATEGY: Comes to the turf and drops down in class in an attempt to wake up this $520,000 auction purchase. His turf work a few days ago was sharp, and he’s shown some zip in his prior efforts.

Wild Type
Lyrical Lady
Pletcher entry

WILD TYPE: Didn’t break well in her debut last month but has worked lights-out since then. Improvement is logical at second asking for a barn that’s hitting at a 28% clip with second-out maidens; LYRICAL LADY: Fetched $625,000 at auction earlier this year and has some strong gate drills on her tab. Her dam was Grade 3-placed at two, so precocity runs in the family; PLETCHER ENTRY: Blahnik and also-eligible Always Shopping can’t be ignored, but they’re both bred to go much longer than this 5 ½-furlong distance.

Miss Mimosa
Cypriana
Palladian Bridge

MISS MIMOSA: Bounced back last time out with a close-up second at Belmont Park. The last two workouts show she could be coming into this event in peak form for a barn whose horses tend to get better as they go along; CYPRIANA: Ran a good second in a six-furlong event last month. A repeat of that effort would give her a big shot, but that clunker two back still presents some questions; PALLADIAN BRIDGE: Likely needed her last race, which was her first outing since February. Before that, she had a productive winter, winning twice and running second in a stakes race, and she could provide some exotics value given her last-out performance.

Hollywood Cat
Cumbria
Dancingwithpaynter

HOLLYWOOD CAT: Merits a big chance for one of the hottest barns in the country if she draws in off the AE list. She was third in a stakes race here last summer, and there should be plenty of pace for her to rate behind; CUMBRIA: Hasn’t done much wrong since being switched to the turf three back. She hasn’t been worse than third since then, and she may get first run at the early leaders when the real running starts; DANCINGWITHPAYNTER: Will likely be a big price, but if you toss the two-back effort (her first start off a layoff), she hasn’t run a bad race in four starts on turf. She’s shown some flexibility, and it wouldn’t surprise me if she got a piece of it.

Fightress
Tapping Pearl
Catherinethegreat

FIGHTRESS: Splashed home to a win in her debut at Churchill Downs, but the real draws here are the two workouts since that win. It certainly appears that she’s moved forward of late, and we’ll almost certainly get a nice price; TAPPING PEARL: Went wire-to-wire in her debut and boasts a strong local workout ahead of this event. She may want to go a bit longer given her pedigree, but unlike others in here, she’s not stretching out at all, which could help; CATHERINETHEGREAT: Romped by more than 10 lengths last time out, but that was at Gulfstream Park, over a sloppy track, and against a suspect field. That last-out Beyer Speed Figure (80) is lofty, but I’m skeptical she can reproduce such an effort, and she may need to in what appears to be a wide-open renewal of the Schuylerville.

Daddy Is a Legend
Punked
Altea

DADDY IS A LEGEND: Has been chasing some of the top 3-year-old turf fillies so far this year and is one of many in here that was victimized by a very slow early pace in the Grade 3 Wonder Again. This seems like a softer spot, and she’s shown she can be closer to the pace if need be; PUNKED: Was second in the Wild Applause Stakes downstate and is one of two Chad Brown trainees in the field. The rail draw and relative lack of pace in the race could mean she’s up close early on; ALTEA: Merits respect because of her connections, but is winless in North America and has only won once in eight career starts. The addition of blinkers is noteworthy, but she may need to be up closer to the pace early than she has been of late.

R10

County Court
Prognostication
Lusitano

COUNTY COURT: Takes a big drop in running for a tag for the first time after being victimized by two slow early paces in a row downstate. There’s some speed signed on here, and that plus the class relief makes this one formidable; PROGNOSTICATION: Has never missed the board in five career turf starts, but also hasn’t run since October and drew a dreadful post position. He’s got a few strong recent works, though, and he could be good enough to win if he’s ready; LUSITANO: Is another dropping in class, and he may benefit from a return to a two-turn route of ground. His two races earlier this year at Tampa were solid, and the presence of Javier Castellano is certainly a plus.