BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,080

It’s closing day at Saratoga, and I’m more grateful than ever for a wide variety of people. First, thanks so much to the full-timers behind The Saratogian and The Pink Sheet, who do the best they can in an environment that gets more and more challenging for print journalism every year. Furthermore, my honeymoon lasted until mid-July, and they were very gracious in allowing me to jump in four days late.

Most of all, though, I’d like to thank you, the reader. I’ve kept this pretty quiet, but I got laid off about six weeks ago (talk about burying the lede, right?). It’s been a challenging month and a half or so navigating things, but I greatly appreciate you for sticking with me and reading my content every day. Let’s see if we can end on a winning note. At a minimum, we’ll be profitable for a second consecutive year.

(P.S.: If you’re hiring, I’m an easy guy to find. Either DM me on X/Twitter at @AndrewChampagne, or use the “contact” feature on this site.)

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Royal Guard had a nightmare trip, checking early and conceding ground while far behind a slow pace. That’s not a recipe for success, and I dropped $60 after scratches.

MONDAY’S PLAY: My opinions get weaker as the day goes on, so I’ll focus on the early Pick Four. My primary $2 ticket starting in the second goes as follows: 3,5 with 6,9 with 5,11 with 1,5. In addition, I’ll play a 50-cent ticket singling #5 TIME TO WIN (a tepid best bet of the day) in the opening leg and provides extra coverage elsewhere. That one goes like this: 5 with 3,4,6,7,9,10 with 2,3,5,7,11 with 1,5. Finally, I’ll have a $15 win bet on Time to Win, too.

TOTAL WAGERED: $77.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Time to Win, Race 2
Longshot: Desperate Proposal, Race 4

R1

Oscar’s Hope
Grunge
Scrutinator

#4 OSCAR’S HOPE (2-1): Was bet down to 7/5 in his debut and ran well to be second behind another well-meant firster. Improvement is logical at second asking, and his experience edge over his rivals could make him very tough in the lid-lifter; #2 GRUNGE (6-1): Sold for $260,000 at auction this year and is bred to be a very, very good sprinter. He’s a half to one graded stakes winner and another graded stakes-placed horse, and his female family includes the dams of stakes horses Noble Court and Real Cash, among others; #8 SCRUTINATOR (5-1): Is one of two Todd Pletcher trainees, and this one gets both Irad and a cushy outside draw. That recent gate work was very, very fast, and this outfit has been on fire towards the end of the meet.

R2

Time to Win
Barb
Duration

#5 TIME TO WIN (3-1): Debuts for Chad Brown, attracts Flavien Prat, and has enough pedigree to win on debut. She’s a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Juju’s Map, she sold for $650,000 at auction, and her workouts jump off the page; #3 BARB (2-1): Seems like the main speed, which is always dangerous out of the Wilson chute. He does stretch out to this distance, which is an unknown, but he could also get comfortable up top and forget to stop; #2 DURATION (5/2): Was third in the race my second choice also exits, and I liked him that day. He didn’t really kick on, though, and I think it’s telling this barn’s first-call rider goes to his barn buddy.

R3

New York Scrappy
Makeyourmoment
Pretrial Statement

#6 NEW YORK SCRAPPY (5/2): hasn’t been out of the barn for more than 10 months, but he’s been training well for Mark Casse and catches what sure seems like a weak field for the level. Prat sees fit to hop aboard, and if he’s ready to go off the bench, he’ll be pretty tough; #9 MAKEYOURMOMENT (8-1): Hits me as the main speed in here and could be able to dictate terms from the jump. His last-out effort wasn’t bad, and he may be the one they have to run down turning for home; #4 PRETRIAL STATEMENT (10-1): Had a nightmare trip last time out and probably never had a chance to do his best running that day. I’m willing to give him another shot underneath, especially at his likely price.

R4

Desperate Proposal
Lachaise
Ennis Town

#5 DESPERATE PROPOSAL (8-1): Has a habit of finding trouble, but John Velazquez rode him very, very well two back, when he was second at this level. A few other contenders in here draw terrible outside posts on the inner turf, and a repeat of that July effort may get it done here; #11 LACHAISE (7/2): Would probably be my top pick with a better draw. His return off of a very long layoff at Colonial was a good effort, and there’s every chance he moves forward at second asking if Irad can work out a trip; #3 ENNIS TOWN (8-1): Wired a field of maiden claimers last time out in an off-the-turf event, but the connections may have found something that day. I think he wants to be forwardly-placed, which is never a bad thing on the inner, and Kendrick Carmouche has been riding very well all summer long.

R5

Rice entry
Cocktailsnkringle
Career Risk

RICE ENTRY (2-1): #1 LAST MAN STANDING was claimed off of Todd Pletcher last time out, but he does exit a strong race for the level, as the two horses in front of him both came back to win. I think the cutback to the Wilson chute could help, too, and the significant drop to a $20,000 tag can’t be ignored; #5 COCKTAILSNKRINGLE (8-1): Ran well going a mile three back, and his recent form looks a bit better if you draw a line through the two-back turf experiment. He’s got some early speed and should be a factor early beneath Jose Ortiz; #2 CAREER RISK (4-1): Didn’t run well in his debut and takes a massive drop in class from that event. It’s possible he needed the race and wakes up in here, but it’s also possible these connections are playing the claiming game and looking to sell, and the rail draw doesn’t help, either.

R6

Atenea (AE)
Raynham Hall
Last Call Jenna

#13 ATENEA (3-1): Needs several scratches to draw in but merits a lot of respect if she gets to run. She ran well to be second in her turf debut last time out, and a repeat of that effort may be good enough, even from a far-outside draw; #5 RAYNHAM HALL (6-1): Was wide in her unveiling last month for a barn whose first-time starters usually need a race to get going. It’s been a long summer for this outfit, but Prat sees fit to stay aboard at second asking, and I’m anticipating a step forward; #10 LAST CALL JENNA (7/2): Has a lot of class in her pedigree and wouldn’t be a surprising favorite if the AE’s don’t draw in. She’s kin to eight winners, and her dam is a half to several stakes winners, but those bloodlines do hint she may want longer than this 5 1/2-furlong trip.

R7

Fully Subscribed
Fast and Frisky
Meursault

#3 FULLY SUBSCRIBED (4-1): Debuted with a strong performance last fall at Aqueduct before going to the sidelines. She’s been working well for Chad Brown ahead of his return, and unlike some of the other top contenders, she draws well in this race out of the chute; #5 FAST AND FRISKY (8-1): Has never been off the board in six starts at the one-mile distance. She comes out of New York-bred races to run here, so this is a class jump, but Irad sticks around and at least she’s doing what she wants to do; #10 MEURSAULT (7/2): Was an impressive winner last time out, and the runner-up came back to get her picture taken, but the far-outside post is a big, big blow. Her best race can win this, but between this being her first try against winners and the obstacles the draw presents, I’m leaning elsewhere.

R8

Purloin (MTO)
Curlin’s Angel
Big Beautiful

#9 CURLIN’S ANGEL (5/2): Ran a massive race in her debut before being left with too much to do in her first try against winners. Irad climbs aboard for this one, and she may have plenty of room to improve. If she does, look out; #6 BIG BEAUTIFUL (6-1): Hasn’t run a bad one all year long and figures to be prominent early. She was a good second last time out on Belmont week, and this barn has done very well with limited numbers this summer; #11 WRIGLEYVILLE (5-1): Hasn’t won since last June but has been competitive here twice this summer. Cutting back in distance should help him, and he may be good enough to overcome the far-outside post on the inner turf.

R9

Buetane
Ted Noffey
Curtain Call

#5 BUETANE (2-1): Ships east for Bob Baffert and merits plenty of respect in the Grade 1 Hopeful. He did nothing wrong in his debut, which came back fast, and the most recent work at Del Mar looks fantastic. If his form travels with him, he’s the one to beat; #8 TED NOFFEY (9/2): Was professional in his first-out score here this summer, and this barn will look to pull off the Spinaway-Hopeful double. No trainer has done that since 1997, when Patrick Byrne accomplished the feat with Countess Diana and Favorite Trick, and there’s nothing to nitpick with this one to this point; #1 CURTAIN CALL (9/2): Ran into Obliteration in his debut, but bounced back with a big win in the slop last time out despite a stumble at the start. He comes into this one after two sharp four-furlong drills over fast going, and he’s shown he can overcome adversity.

R10

Asbury Park
Stars and Strides
Leon Blue

#1 ASBURY PARK (7/2): Gets a tepid nod in a wide-open renewal of the Saranac. He had a tough trip last time out, but his two-back score was very sharp, and he figures to benefit from a lot of early speed signed on. The faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be; #3 STARS AND STRIDES (9/2): Took to the turf last time out and got the job done despite racing greenly in the stretch. He’ll have to run without Lasix here, but if Bill Mott has gotten him past the quirks he showed last time out, we could see another step forward; #6 LEON BLUE (12-1): Capitalized on a perfect ride to win the Rick Violette earlier this summer. That was over state-breds, so this is a jump in class, but he’s never been worse than third in six lifetime starts and could provide some value.

R11

Say Yes To Dreams
Twolatebabydoll
Just So Pretty (AE)

#5 SAY YES TO DREAMS (4-1): Didn’t get much pace last time out, in her first start since June of 2024. However, she rallied to be beaten just two lengths. I’m expecting improvement second off the bench in the final race of the 2025 meet; #3 TWOLATEBABYDOLL (7/2): Hit the front in the stretch last time out before being reeled in. I think she has the potential to sit an ideal stalking trip, and that may allow her to get first run turning for home; #13 JUST SO PRETTY (6-1): Was a close-up second last time out and has a chance if she draws in off the AE list. However, she’ll need to work out a trip from a tough post, and she’s also had plenty of chances.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,140

Get tied on, because we’ve got 14 races coming up Sunday at Saratoga. My issue, though, isn’t with the volume of races, but with an unfortunate quirk in the routes of those events.

The Jockey Club Gold Cup is the only two-turn dirt race on the card. Meanwhile, four of the other 13 races will be contested out of the Wilson chute (with more to come if any rain rolls in and forces races off the turf). It’s the last weekend of Saratoga, with the best fans in the game congregating on the apron and in the grandstand. Why not add a furlong to at least one of those one-mile races and start and finish at the wire?

For most of this season, NYRA has done a great job moderating the use of the Wilson chute, which we’ve seen too much of the last several years. However, there have been stretches where it gets overused, and Sunday’s one of those days.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Ornellaia, unfortunately, scratched out of the Spinaway, which cancelled all my action.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: We’ll head to the ninth, where I’m hoping #9 ROYAL GUARD runs to a pedigree that says he’ll love going to the turf at second asking. I’ll have a $50 win bet on him, and I’ll also single him to finish a pair of $10 doubles that start in the eighth with #2 VETTRIANO and #4 BURNING GLORY.

TOTAL WAGERED: $70.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Royal Guard, Race 9
Longshot: Burning Glory, Race 8

R1

Aeolian
Bon Vivant
Endorse

#5 AEOLIAN (4-1): Debuts for Chad Brown and boasts a monster pedigree, being a full sister to Grade 1 winner Tapit Trice. Debuting going a mile is no easy task, but she’s bred to want plenty of distance, and it’s not like there are any monsters in the Sunday opener; #1 BON VIVANT (9/2): Was third going a bit longer last time out and, in an ironic twist, chased home a full sister to my top selection that day. Cutting back to a mile should help her, as her one-turn efforts aren’t bad, but the rail draw is a question mark; #3 ENDORSE (7/2): Ran well to be third behind Ragtime in her debut, but has since thrown a rider and run sixth beaten 19 lengths. A repeat of the debut effort might be enough to get the money here, but I’d be hesitant to, well, endorse this one at a short price.

R2

Chummers (AE)
Twenty One Red
Mr. Bres

#11 CHUMMERS (3-1): Needs a scratch to draw in but merits respect if he gets to run. He did everything but win last time out at a price, and this barn’s runners tend to improve considerably with experience. A step forward could make him tough; #7 TWENTY ONE RED (8-1): Sports a few flashy drills ahead of his debut for George Weaver, who has shined with debuting turf sprinters this summer. Flavien Prat likely had a few options, but he lands here, and this dam’s four prior foals to race are all winners; #4 MR. BRES (7/2): Wouldn’t be a terrible favorite in his debut for Miguel Clement. He’s a full brother to turf winner Coach Case, and a few of his works hint that he may have some potential.

R3

Final Turn entry
Echo Again
Dilger

FINAL TURN ENTRY (7/2): I prefer #1 TOP GUN ROCKET, who won two in a row before a third-place finish going longer in the mud against what hits me as a better group. His two-back score came at this route, and there’s something to be said for horses that like the chute; #2 ECHO AGAIN (5/2): Has run two solid races at Saratoga this summer and was most recently a close-up second going seven furlongs. He more than fits on speed figures, but I’m starting to get a bit concerned that he finds ways to lose, and the rail draw isn’t an ideal one out of the chute, let alone for a deep closer; #5 DILGER (3-1): Faded a bit to be third last time out going seven furlongs, but perhaps he needed that race off of a bit of a break. He’s won going a mile before, and Irad sees fit to ride back.

R4

Maria Callas
Cosmic Candy Girl
Boomington

#3 MARIA CALLAS (9/5): Debuts for Chad Brown and boasts a steady string of solid drills ahead of her unveiling. There’s plenty of stamina on her bottom-side pedigree, sire Caravaggio is a very strong turf influence, and Flavien Prat will be aboard; #8 COSMIC CANDY GIRL (10-1): Ran second beaten a length in her debut, which was rained off the turf. Everything about her pedigree says she wants the grass, and while this barn has been a bit cold this summer, I think this one has a chance at a price; #7 BOOMINGTON (8-1): Is one of two firsters trained by George Weaver in this spot, and of the pair, this is the one I want. She’s kin to Run Away, who won three stakes races as a 2-year-old in California, and the two-back gate drill on August 16th was a good one.

R5

Mindframe
Sierra Leone
Highland Falls

#4 MINDFRAME (2-1): Has never run a bad one and comes into the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup with three graded stakes wins in as many starts this season. I think he’ll sit an ideal trip just off the pace and have every chance to run that mark to 4-for-4 over one of the best Gold Cup fields in recent memory; #3 SIERRA LEONE (8/5): Figures to be favored after an impressive score in the Grade 1 Whitney. His rabbit once again runs here, and his best race could absolutely win this, but it’s worth noting that he’s chased Mindframe twice, including in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster two back; #2 HIGHLAND FALLS (5-1): Was a very good second in the Whitney, goes third off the bench for Brad Cox, and does his best running at the Spa. He won this race a season ago, and while he’ll need to run a bit faster to repeat, it’s also possible he’s sitting on a big one here (and if you like him, you’ll get a square price).

R6

Meursault (MTO)
Virgin Colada
Sea To Sky

#10 VIRGIN COLADA (2-1): Takes a significant class drop after a clunker in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks and looms large in this allowance event. She’s been running against stakes company ever since breaking her maiden at first asking, and she’s strictly the one to beat; #7 SEA TO SKY (8-1): Is a European invader getting first-time Lasix, which is an angle I’ve always loved. She ran some solid races overseas, seems to be working well, and attracts Hall of Famer John Velazquez; #1 CLIFFS (4-1): Faces winners for the first time after an impressive maiden-breaking score earlier this month. A repeat effort could give her a chance, but that was a significant step forward, and there’s also a chance she “bounces” off of it.

R7

Celebrity Quest
Paige Turner
Lovely Christina

#9 CELEBRITY QUEST (6-1): Sold for $525,000 at Keeneland last fall and debuts for Tom Amoss, who has sent out some very talented 2-year-olds this summer. She’s got a few bullet drills on her sheet, and her bottom-side pedigree is monstrous (her dam is kin to Grade 1 winner Power Broker, and third dam Shopping was very, very productive); #3 PAIGE TURNER (8-1): Travels in for Cherie DeVaux after several strong works at Keeneland and Ellis Park. I find the ship-in interesting, as there had to be a few spots coming up in Kentucky, and instead they run her here. That could be a sign she’s sitting on “go” in her unveiling; #8 LOVELY CHRISTINA (5/2): Chased a well-meant debutante when second at first asking for Todd Pletcher, and improvement is likely at second asking. Still, this is a promising group of 2-year-old fillies, and merely repeating the last-out effort may not be enough to get it done.

R8

Burning Glory
Vettriano
Tap Into This

#4 BURNING GLORY (8-1): Hasn’t run since February, when he was third in the Grade 3 Holy Bull behind a pair of eventual Grade 1 winners. The long layoff is a concern, but he’ll run with Lasix for the first time and that last-out gate drill was very, very fast. At his likely price, I’ll gladly take a swing; #2 VETTRIANO (6-1): Never had a chance in his return a few weeks ago, when he broke slowly and was never involved. He wants to be on or near the lead, and that’s the trip he should get stretching out second off the bench for Linda Rice; #7 TAP INTO THIS (3-1): Graduated in fine fashion last time out, but I think his likely price is a bit short here. He benefited from a legitimate pace last time out, the post position isn’t ideal, and the Wilson chute is an unknown. Maybe he’s developing and is good enough to overcome all of that, but others interest me more.

R9

Royal Guard
Tacticality
Sunrise (AE)

#9 ROYAL GUARD (4-1): Was third in his off-the-turf debut, and that day’s runner-up was a next-out winner. His bottom-side pedigree is all-turf, which he gets here, and his experience edge over a few first-time starters could make a big, big difference; #10 TACTICALITY (3-1): Draws a less-than-ideal post in his debut for Chad Brown, but he’s bred to be a runner and has been working consistently. His dam, second dam, and third dam were all stakes horses, and sire Essential Quality is off to a fast start at stud; #13 SUNRISE (4-1): Needs two scratches to run, but his debut wasn’t bad and he may have needed that race given a pedigree that suggests he’ll get better with experience. He may be wide if he runs, but it’s also possible he’s sitting on a move forward.

R10

Big Invasion
Twenty Six Black
Works for Me

#9 BIG INVASION (5-1): Comes in off a long layoff to contest the Disco Partner, but he’s run very, very well at Saratoga in the past. He won last year’s Harvey Pack at this route, seems to be training well, and figures to be the one they’ll have to hold off late; #5 TWENTY SIX BLACK (4-1): Was a good second in the Grade 2 Troy behind one of the best turf sprinters in the country, and Flavien Prat sees fit to ride back. He’s another with a history of strong efforts at Saratoga, and perhaps he’s coming into his own as a 5-year-old; #8 WORKS FOR ME (6-1): Ran second in the Harvey Pack and hasn’t run a clunker in more than a year for a small barn that merits respect (that outfit also conditions multiple graded stakes winner May Day Ready). He won last year’s Aqueduct Turf Sprint Championship, so he more than fits at this level.

R11

Rout
Vibrant Express
Lodato

#3 ROUT (2-1): Was one-paced in his debut on turf and goes to dirt while dropping in for a tag. It’s possible this is a “dump” from a high-percentage barn, but there’s just not much in this group, and any sort of a step forward from his debut figures to make him tough to beat; #10 VIBRANT EXPRESS (9/2): Debuts for George Weaver and is another that seems to have found a good spot. We don’t know much about him yet, but he’s got a few OK workouts and draws well at first asking; #2 LODATO (6-1): Showed speed in his debut going two turns on turf at Tampa, but we haven’t seen him since. A few recent drills look fine, and the presence of aggressive jockey Luis Saez could indicate he’ll be forwardly-placed out of the gate.

R12

Navajo Warrior
Gasoline
Systemic Change

#2 NAVAJO WARRIOR (2-1): Got pretty good earlier this year in California, where he reeled off three straight wins at a mile before moving to the Saffie Joseph barn. He fits on speed figures, and his ability to go a two-turn mile should translate well to the Wilson chute; #6 GASOLINE (6-1): Is 2-for-2 at Saratoga and topped a weaker group going two turns last time out. He may be a bit better going a hair shorter, so the cutback could move him forward, and if he can repeat his last-out effort, he could stand a chance at a mild upset; #7 SYSTEMIC CHANGE (5-1): Capitalized on an ideal setup last time out, when he rallied from last to first before being claimed by Ilkay Kantarmaci. His two-back clunker came in a key race that’s now produced four next-out winners, and he’d benefit from a faster-than-expected pace here.

R13

Belle Cherie
Julita
Flatter Fanatic

#11 BELLE CHERIE (9/2): Hasn’t run since April and takes a class drop that may seem alarming on paper. However, this ownership desperately wants to make a run at the seasonal title, they’re not afraid to drop horses way down in order to do that, and she has plenty of back form; #8 JULITA (8-1): Is another dropping in class, but she does so after a failed turf experiment last time out. She showed speed against better two back at Aqueduct, and she went wire-to-wire three back to break her maiden; #6 FLATTER FANATIC (12-1): Merits a look at a price after a dud in the slop against winners. Her two-back win at Gulfstream was a solid effort, and she showed plenty of gate speed that day.

R14

Lets Fight
Hello Newman
Blame It On K J

#3 LETS FIGHT (9/2): Hasn’t run since February, but his work tab is strong and he drops in for a tag for the first time. He’s bred to love the lawn, and the presence of Irad in the finale of this marathon card could be a clue; #2 HELLO NEWMAN (3-1): Showed improvement at this level last time out, when he was a close-up third going shorter. I’m not entirely sure two turns is what he wants, but at least we know he can be competitive against similar horses; #7 BLAME IT ON K J (10-1): Comes back to turf after running a good second in an off-the-turf event at second asking. He lost all chance in his debut at the start, and his pedigree says the grass is what he wants. Another step forward in his third start could give him a big chance at a price.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,140

I need to do some housekeeping to kick this off. Print journalism has deadlines, and I refuse to keep my editor waiting on my content for any reason. That’s why you’ll rarely, if ever, see a bankroll play from me ending in the last race of a card. It may seem obvious to some, but I can’t submit the next day’s bankroll content until the current day is over (if I could predict the future, I’d be on a private island somewhere!).

With that in mind, I won’t be using my best bet of the day, which comes in the 13th and final. It’s simply too late to get everything in and formatted on time. Having said that, know this: If time wasn’t a factor, I would use this space to have a significant win wager on Debt Limit in the finale. He’s 3-1 on the morning line, and I honestly think that’s a significant overlay.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Neither of the two horses I highlighted in here fired. I dropped $50.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I can’t play the 13th, but I will play the 11th, the Grade 1 Spinaway, which goes off an hour earlier. I’m a big fan of #1 ORNELLAIA (especially after Steer Clear won Friday), and I’ll be betting accordingly. In addition to a $30 win bet, I’ll key her in a $5 exacta box using her above and below #5 PERCY’S BAR and #8 TOMMY JO.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Debt Limit, Race 13
Longshot: Braciole, Race 3

R1

Waitin’onasunnyday
Two Ducks
Jolted

#7 WAITIN’ONASUNNYDAY (4-1): Chased a next-out stakes winner home in his debut for a barn whose runners tend to get better with experience. He’s turned in a few solid drills since then and appears well-meant in the Saturday opener; #6 TWO DUCKS (8-1): Was fourth on turf in his debut and ran into a good-looking winner that day. He’s another that has a right to move forward at second asking, and we may get a bit of a price on him; #9 JOLTED (7/2): Was wide in his debut while chasing a solid pace. He does draw outside again here, but he may have enough early speed to clear this bunch early and dictate terms from the jump.

R2

The Obliterator (MTO)
Diliello
Honoree (AE)

#3 DILIELLO (4-1): Flopped when third as a 6/5 favorite last time out, but I’m willing to give him another shot stretching out in distance. His bottom-side pedigree has plenty of stamina to it, and sire Gift Box did his best work going a distance of ground, too; #12 HONOREE (5/2): Needs two scratches to run, but merits respect if he does. He was far behind a slow pace last time out, raced wide, and jockey John Velazquez lost his whip, but he still managed to run second. A less-eventful journey may be enough to get him the money here; #10 TIME TO ROLL (8-1): Doesn’t draw a great post in his debut, but he sold for $270,000 last year and has a lot of “win-early” pedigree. His dam was a debut winner who went on to place in Grade 3 company, and the lone prior runner she’s thrown won at first asking, too.

R3

Trust Fund
Braciole
Runaway Joke

#3 TRUST FUND (9/2): Seems to have found his form of late, with back-to-back wins downstate coming into this one. It’s a step up the class ladder for him, but he’s one of only a few in here that doesn’t seem to need the lead early on, and that should help him; #2 BRACIOLE (12-1): Has a history of coming from out of the clouds, and that’s the right style to have in a race full of early speed. He might be left with too much to do late on the win end, but throw him out of vertical exotics at your own peril; #1 RUNAWAY JOKE (7/2): Has won his last seven starts, mostly at Finger Lakes, and ships in for a barn that means business when it comes in. Of the speed horses, he’s the one I prefer, but it sure looks like they’re going to be flying early.

R4

Crushed It (MTO)
Creditworthy
Final Verdict

#5 CREDITWORTHY (5/2): Comes back to the turf after a dud on dirt last time out. It’s understandable why they tried that spot given his two-back score in an off-the-turf event, but grass is likely what he wants and it doesn’t seem like he catches the strongest field for the level; #1 FINAL VERDICT (4-1): Hasn’t won yet this year, but one can argue he’s been compromised by wide trips in his last several outings. He shouldn’t get that from the rail draw in here, and he’s hit the board five times in six tries at the Spa; #7 TWISTED FILIGREE (6-1): May have bounced last time off of a strong wire-to-wire win two back in his first try since November. A bounce-back makes him a contender in here, though he might have some company up front in this turf sprint.

R5

Tough Street
Scythian
Rice entry

#2 TOUGH STREET (3-1): Didn’t run well last time out, but that was her first start since February and it came against open company. She drops in for a $45,000 tag here, and she’ll also run against New York-breds at a route she won at last summer; #3 SCYTHIAN (5/2): Makes her 2025 debut after accomplishing quite a bit as a 2-year-old. She won the Grade 2 Miss Grillo before trying the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, and it seems like she’s working well, but what are we to make of a turf-oriented horse coming back on the dirt?; RICE ENTRY (4-1): #1 SWEETEST PRINCESS and #1A MALU both fit on form. Having said that, they didn’t exactly luck out at the post position draw. They’ll break from posts seven and nine here, and neither of those are ideal.

R6

Stradale
Talkin
Accost

#1 STRADALE (5/2): Had a nightmare trip in his debut, when he broke terribly and settled for third as an odds-on favorite. This $1.3 million purchase has the Steve Asmussen work pattern I love, and if he can break smoothly from the rail draw, he’ll be strictly the one to beat; #4 TALKIN (9/2): Hammered for $600,000 at Keeneland last year and debuts off of a strong series of works for Danny Gargan. He’s kin to five winners, and his dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Magnificent Song, among others; #3 ACCOST (3-1): Ran well in his debut, when he was second despite a wide trip. He’s got a right to move forward at second asking, though this seems like a promising field and he might have to do that in order to contend.

R7

Long Neck Paula
Delightful Claire
Rojo Rita

#5 LONG NECK PAULA (8/5): Did everything but win the Jersey Girl last time out, when she set a fast pace and got beaten a head (in one of several terrible Belmont week beats for yours truly…). Cross out the dud over the Turfway synthetic three back, and you have a horse that’s never run a bad one ahead of the Grade 3 Prioress; #3 DELIGHTFUL CLAIRE (6/5): Ran very, very well in breaking her maiden by more than nine lengths a few weeks ago and steps all the way up into graded stakes company. On speed figures, she fits, but this is an ambitious spot against some proven horses, and the likely short price offers minimal value; #2 ROJO RITA (5-1): Comes back to the dirt, and if she can channel her Gulfstream form from the winter and spring, she fits in here. Edgard Zayas picks up the mount on a trip up from Florida, and she figures to be a primary pace factor.

R8

Dragones
Our Magical Moon
Frenchquarter Note

#6 DRAGONES (5/2): Makes his debut after selling for $1.7 million across the street as a yearling last summer. His pedigree is strong, being by Gun Runner and out of a mare that’s also thrown Grade 1 winner Leofric, and his two-back gate drill looks sensational; #2 OUR MAGICAL MOON (5-1): Tried two turns on turf at first asking and ran well to be third after setting the early pace. His lone workout since then looks strong, and his experience edge could be a big, big advantage; #9 FRENCHQUARTER NOTE (10-1): Runs for the first time and is another with several things to like. George Weaver’s enjoyed an excellent meet to this point, and the two-back gate work is a strong one. He’s a half to multiple stakes winner Annex, among others, and breaking towards the outside could be a plus.

R9

Shoot It True
Tales of The Heart
Ward entry

#4 SHOOT IT TRUE (5/2): Takes a significant class jump coming out of the state-bred ranks, but she was very, very good last time out. She cruised home while geared down, and that day’s third-place finisher, Strictly Taboo, has talent. A similar kind of effort here would make her tough; #3 TALES OF THE HEART (6-1): Hasn’t won in a while, but she was a solid third in a pai of races at this route earlier this summer. She should certainly get plenty of pace to run at in here, and that may be enough to put her over the top; WARD ENTRY (8-1): #1 DANGHERECOMESSHANG re-rallied last time after being headed, which isn’t an easy thing to do. She’s won two in a row this year, and when Wesley Ward gets horses on the right track, they tend to stay there.

R10

La Mehana
Be Your Best
Bellezza

#4 LA MEHANA (2-1): Has come to hand for Miguel Clement with a pair of impressive wins, including a runaway score in the Grade 2 Glens Falls. That was over a yielding track, to be fair, but she’s run very well over firm going in the past, too, and she’s the one to beat in the Grade 2 Flower Bowl; #7 BE YOUR BEST (5/2): Disappointed when a flat third in the Grade 2 Beverly D. at Colonial after coming in with four wins in her prior five starts. One of those was a romp in the Grade 1 Gamely at Santa Anita, and her best race would give her a big chance, but I’m not totally convinced she’s at her best going this long; #8 BELLEZZA (4-1): Chased my top pick last time out and may not have enjoyed the softer going. The turf course should be more firm on Saturday, and that could enable her to get back to her graded stakes-winning form from earlier this year.

R11

Ornellaia
Tommy Jo
Percy’s Bar

#1 ORNELLAIA (9/2): Won her debut like a very, very good horse, when she didn’t break well and finished with a flourish to get the money. I’m not a huge fan of the rail draw, but this $1.1 million purchase lived up to the billing last time out and could move forward further in the Grade 1 Spinaway; #8 TOMMY JO (2-1): Was another impressive maiden-breaker this summer, as she cruised home by nearly four lengths over a runner that romped at next asking. These powerhouse connections merit respect, especially in high-level 2-year-old races, and she’s a logical favorite; #5 PERCY’S BAR (6-1): Has won her first two starts in Kentucky, and she’s done so impressively, rating early and pouncing late. This is a significant class test, but she’s done absolutely nothing wrong to this point and merits plenty of respect.

R12

Surveillance
Whatchatalkinabout
Victory Way

#4 SURVEILLANCE (7/2): Ran well to be second in another stakes-quality optional claimer last time out, and in doing so beat multiple graded stakes winner Damon’s Mound. He runs well at Saratoga, especially when allowed to run with Lasix, and his usual effort would give him a big chance; #7 WHATCHATALKINABOUT (3-1): Ran a real clunker last time out in the John Morrissey, when he was beaten 12 lengths as the 9/5 favorite. The muddy, sealed track may not have helped him, and he’s since worked well. A return to form would make him a top contender; #8 VICTORY WAY (4-1): Exits a fast race from Belmont week, where he was second behind the well-meant General Partner in the slop. On speed figures, he fits, but it’s been a long time between trips to the winner’s circle for him (he hasn’t won since July of 2023).

R13

Debt Limit
Laurel Valley
Main Beach

#5 DEBT LIMIT (3-1): Rallied from far, far back to be third behind Then last time out, and that one has since repeated and is likely on his way to stakes races. He’d won two in a row before that effort, he adds blinkers here, and I think he’s strictly the one to beat (and that the 3-1 price is an overlay); #11 LAUREL VALLEY (6-1): May have needed his last race, as that was his first try since November. He was fourth that day after setting a pretty fast pace, and while the outside post isn’t ideal, he may have enough early speed to dictate terms from the first jump; #12 MAIN BEACH (9/2): Is the “other” Chad Brown in this spot, and while he’s another that draws terribly in the Saturday finale, there are some things to like. His comeback at Monmouth wasn’t a bad effort, and he could step forward second off the bench if rider Jose Lezcano can work out a trip.