selections | Andrew Champagne

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/28/22)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $769.45

The Grade 1 Ballerina has been on the Travers Day program for the last few years. It got moved to the following day this season, and that’s a switch I applaud. Travers Day doesn’t need every single Grade 1 race, and the Ballerina’s a cool event that’s able to stand on its own.

This year’s Ballerina is more than worthy of “main event” status. Ce Ce has won nearly $2.3 million in taking races like the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. Obligatory and Bella Sofia are Grade 1 winners. Goodnight Olive tries graded stakes company for the first time after four wins in a row for the meet’s leading trainer.

This card is a good one. The feature race is a good one. And the decision to give this race center stage was, you guessed it, a good one. Kudos, NYRA.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: My Pick Five went down in flames early, as I got nosed in the first leg and dropped $40 after scratches.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll primarily focus on the late Pick Four, where I think there’s value to be had thanks to wide-open races in the first and last legs. My 50-cent ticket starts in the seventh and goes as follows: 1,2,3,6 with 4 with 1,2 with 2,4,6,8,9,12. I’ll also have a $10 win bet on #7 BUSTIN BULLET in the third, where I’ll hope to get something close to the 8-1 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $34.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Wit, Race 8
Longshot: Lupo’s Legacy, Race 10

My Betsy (MTO)
Xigera
Akayla

#2 XIGERA: Ran second behind one of the better 2-year-olds we’ve seen all summer in her debut and has every right to improve at second asking. This barn has been sending out live runners from its small string this meet, and I think she may prove tough to catch; #7 AKAYLA: Sold for $650,000 at auction earlier this year and is by top European sire Kingman, who’s proven to be an amazing turf influence. That 446 turf Tomlinson rating jumps off the page (it’s rare to see one much above 350), and this barn always merits respect in these races; #1 JUSTIFIABLE BELLE: Is bred in the purple (by Justify, out of a Giant’s Causeway mare) and comes in off of a turf drill that’s very fast by this barn’s standards. Luis Saez has been enlisted to ride, and she’s got an opportunity to show some talent in the Sunday opener.

Bold Victory
Cryo
Higher Quality

#4 BOLD VICTORY: Generally runs the same race every time out and has shown he can pass others late. He was third in a race at this level last month, one that didn’t exactly set up for his running style. The faster they go early, the better this one’s chances figure to be; #3 CRYO: Hasn’t won in a while but has been second twice at this stand and gets a big rider switch to Javier Castellano. He’s shown an ability to stalk and have something left for the stretch run, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he ends the drought here; #5 HIGHER QUALITY: Topped my second choice at this route in the opening days of the meet and is protected first off the claim in a spot that didn’t come up overwhelmingly strong. A repeat of his efforts for his prior connections may be good enough for him to record his third win in just five career outings.

New York Banker (MTO)
Bustin Bullet
Abuse of Power

#7 BUSTIN BULLET: Had a very eventful trip last time out and was beaten just a length in that event. Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back, and the outside draw in a smaller field may ensure a cleaner trip for a runner that could be a bit of a price; #3 ABUSE OF POWER: Topped a group of claimers at this route earlier in the meet and may very well go off favored here. She’s run reasonably well against OK groups in the past, but I can’t help but wonder how much what seemed like a perfect trip moved her forward last time out; CORMS ENTRY: I prefer #1 MISPELLED MOOON, who’s hit the board in each of her last five starts. That includes a good second in a similar race last time out, and I think she may prove to be the one they have to catch turning for home.

Gasoline
Sidekick
Cloud Forest

#2 GASOLINE: Probably bounced off of a career-best try two back last time out, when he faltered as a 6/5 favorite. That effort two starts ago saw him come within a length of next-out Curlin winner Artorius, and his pedigree says this two-turn trip will hit him right between the eyes; #5 SIDEKICK: Made a middle move while racing wide last time out, and it’s not surprising he tired late to finish a distant second. He’s got every chance to improve in his second start at this route, and the switch to John Velazquez is a notable one; #3 CLOUD FOREST: Has run back-to-back clunkers, but this is his first two-turn dirt outing and his career debut going long was good enough to make me think there’s still potential here. He earned an 87 Beyer Speed Figure in that event, and such an effort would likely get him a piece of this one at a price.

Tiwanaku (MTO)
Microphone
Exult

#4 MICROPHONE: Was a disappointment when third as the 3/5 favorite last time out downstate, but his best efforts have come going two turns and he gets such a route in this spot. It also helps that that day’s winner came back to win again, and that this doesn’t seem like an overly strong first-level allowance; #5 EXULT: May have needed his last-out effort, which was his first start in 13 months. He didn’t have a great trip that day, and he’s a candidate to improve with that seasoning and a cleaner journey; #6 IRWIN: Was fourth in the race my second choice exits and possesses enough tactical speed to be able to work out a favorable trip. He’s another that seems to improve with two turns, and he might be the one to catch when the real running starts.

High Class
Alpha Bella
Love to Shop

#4 HIGH CLASS: Dueled with Prank last time out, and that, predictably, didn’t end well for her. She comes back here, and while this is another tough spot, her experience edge over her competition should prove valuable, and that’s enough to earn a tepid nod in a wide-open event; #11 ALPHA BELLA: Needs a scratch to draw in off the AE list but will be a major player if she’s allowed to run. This daughter of Justify is kin to five winners, including multiple stakes winner Andina Del Sur, and she’s been working very well for Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher…; #9 LOVE TO SHOP: …who also saddles this promising daughter of Violence. Her dam is a half-sister to Grade 1-placed Talk Veuve To Me, and this one’s two local drills after shipping up from Monmouth Park look very sharp.

Freedomofthepress
O’Gotten Girl
Train to Artemus

#2 FREEDOMOFTHEPRESS: Has been competitive against starter allowance foes and drops into this restricted claiming event for non-winners of three. It’s a significantly weaker spot than the ones she’s been running in, and I think she sits an ideal stalking trip just outside of…; #1 O’GOTTEN GIRL: …who probably gets back to the right level after trying starter allowance company first off the claim. She’s got enough early speed to make the rail draw an asset, and the rider change to Irad Ortiz, Jr., is a big one; #3 TRAIN TO ARTEMUS: Took a big step forward to spring a mild upset last time out, and that day’s rider, Flavien Prat, sees fit to ride back here. She’s improved in each of her three starts since coming off a very long layoff, and if my top two choices tire themselves out up front, this one stands to benefit.

Wit
Napoleonic War
Riot House

#4 WIT: Came flying late to be second behind a loose-on-the-lead winner in the Grade 2 Hall of Fame last time out. This race not only seems a bit weaker than that one, it also seems to have drawn more runners with early zip. Put all of that together, and I think this one will be tough to fend off in the Better Talk Now; #7 NAPOLEONIC WAR: Ran too poorly to be true in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby, when he was 11th behind the likes of Classic Causeway and Nations Pride. This is obviously a step down from that level of competition, and perhaps it’s enough to get this one his first stakes score; #8 RIOT HOUSE: Is 2-for-2 going two turns on turf, albeit against weaker groups at Gulfstream Park. However, maybe his connections have just found what he wants to do, and the recent local turf drills sure seem to hint this one is relishing his time in upstate New York.

Ce Ce
Obligatory
Goodnight Olive

#1 CE CE: Sure seems like she hasn’t lost a step since winning last year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. Her win in the Grade 2 Princess Rooney at Gulfstream Park was dominant, and a similar effort would make her tough to top in the Grade 1 Ballerina; #2 OBLIGATORY: Wants to drop back and make one big late run, and she may get a race shape conducive to that running style. If she gets a scorching pace, which might well materialize in this spot, she and jockey Jose Ortiz will be licking their chops coming off the far turn; #7 GOODNIGHT OLIVE: Has won four in a row, and while this is a significant step up, she’s done nothing wrong of late and draws a cushy outside post in this one. Her flexible running style should provide plenty of options for Irad Ortiz, Jr., and the 5-1 morning line price hits me as a slight overlay.

R10

Steady On
Lupo’s Legacy
Rocket’s Red Glare

#4 STEADY ON: Debuts for Todd Pletcher and has been training forwardly ahead of his unveiling. His second dam won multiple Grade 1 races as a 2-year-old, so there’s some potential for precocity here, and the recent five-furlong turf drill jumps off the page; #8 LUPO’S LEGACY: Has been working well ahead of his debut, and his bottom-side pedigree includes plenty of turf. His dam was stakes-placed on the lawn at two, and his second dam, Queen Amira, was a stakes-winning turf sprinter. 12-1 hits me as way too big a price; #2 ROCKET’S RED GLARE: Was one-paced in his debut after having some issues at the gate. Linda Rice trainees often need a race or two to get going, and I think improvement is logical given the experience he gained a few weeks ago.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/27/22; TRAVERS DAY)

Posted on August 26 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $809.45

It’s Travers Day, which means I’ll have one of my biggest audiences of the year. After last week’s sojourn to Saratoga, there’s only one thing I could use this space for. If it resonates with just one casual track-goer, I’ll consider it a victory.

For 150 years, it has been tradition to observe seats with newspapers, coolers, or other things on them as taken. Yes, seating is at a premium, but folks who get to the track when the doors open, set up camp, and go to the bathroom between races shouldn’t come back to see their picnic tables, benches, or chairs vultured by other people.

My father and I had our clubhouse bench vultured five different times last Saturday, a few when we were standing just a few feet away talking to friends (once when I was sitting down and someone decided they were entitled to the rest of the bench, which was covered). I was raised to believe this is unacceptable behavior, and I’ll always feel that way.

Several people I call friends feel differently about this. They’re incorrect. This has been a tradition for 150 years, and the beauty of Saratoga is that traditions that don’t matter elsewhere matter here. Keep that in mind when you’re at the track, both today and each time you head to the Spa.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Unfortunately, the Yaddo was one of several intriguing grass races washed off the turf. My action was cancelled.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: If you watched Thursday’s live-streamed HHH Racing Podcast, you saw me give out a 50-cent Pick Five beginning in the seventh race. I’ll play that ticket here, and it goes as follows: 1,2,3,5,7,8 with 6 with 1,2,3,5 with 1,3,6,8 with 6.

TOTAL WAGERED: $48.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Jackie’s Warrior, Race 5
Longshot: Soldier Rising, Race 10

Verifying
Game Warden
Standard of Proof

#3 VERIFYING: Hammered for $775,000 at auction last year, and for good reason. He’s by Justify and out of a mare named Diva Delite, which makes him a half-brother to Midnight Bisou. He’s worked well for Brad Cox and looms large in his unveiling bright and early on Travers Saturday; #1 GAME WARDEN: Has several strong works for Bill Mott and may be talented enough to overcome the inside draw. His female family includes the dam of champion Saint Liam, and my biggest hesitation is thinking he may well want more than this six-furlong distance; #7 STANDARD OF PROOF: Sold for $170,000 last fall and has been working consistently for the meet’s leading trainer. The outside draw is a plus, and while I think there’s more turf to his bottom-side pedigree than dirt, offspring of Gun Runner can generally perform on anything.

America’s Guest
Triple Start
Take Me to Jimmy

#7 AMERICA’S GUEST: Rallied a bit to be fifth in his debut for a trainer whose horses tend to need a race to get going. This colt gets a big rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., and sports a recent four-furlong drill that hints he’s sitting on a considerable move forward at second asking; #5 TRIPLE START: Has a pedigree that says he’ll love this two-turn trip. He’s a half-brother to Grade 1 winner Persistently and stakes-placed runner Award It, his second dam is Hall of Famer Heavenly Prize, and offspring of American Pharoah tend to like turf; #8 TAKE ME TO JIMMY: Is a half-brother to multiple Grade 3 winner Tammy the Torpedo and has plenty of class in the bottom side of her pedigree. This daughter of Kitten’s Joy sold for $335,000 across the street last summer, and this outfit must be respected in these races.

On the Hill
Great Workout
Colormepazzi

#1 ON THE HILL: Won an open starter allowance event last time out and comes back into the state-bred ranks for this seven-furlong event. Luis Saez sees fit to ride back, and I certainly don’t see this spot as a class hike. A repeat of the last-out effort may very well be enough; #9 GREAT WORKOUT: Cuts back to one turn after going too long when fifth in a two-turn race last month. His two-back effort was a winning one, albeit against claimers, but that 89 Beyer Speed Figure shows his best may be good enough to win this at a bit of a price; #3 COLORMEPAZZI: Didn’t have an ideal trip last time out, when he was forced to rate behind a fast pace and never kicked on. He wants to be on the lead, and I don’t think he’ll need to overextend himself in order to get there in this event.

Technical Analysis
Lemista
Fluffy Socks

#5 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Hasn’t run a poor race in more than a year, a stretch that includes two local graded stakes wins and a second in the Grade 1 Diana. She certainly looks like the lone speed in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa, and I think she’ll get very comfortable early on and prove tough to catch; #2 LEMISTA: Ended a two-year drought with a win in the Grade 3 Matchmaker at Monmouth Park last month. She seems to connect with Flavien Prat, who also rode her to a Grade 1 placing last summer, and she has enough tactical speed to sit a good stalking trip; #4 FLUFFY SOCKS: Has hit the board in 12 of 15 lifetime starts, most of which have been graded stakes races. Her usual race gets her a piece of this one, but it’s fair to wonder if she’s turned into a bit of a hanger given an inability to capitalize on some very nice setups this season.

Jackie’s Warrior
Cody’s Wish
Baby Yoda

#3 JACKIE’S WARRIOR: Will look to run his local record to 6-for-6 in the Grade 1 Forego, and it’s tough to see him getting much of a test here. He couldn’t have won the Grade 1 Vanderbilt any easier, we know he can get the extra furlong this race carries with it, and I think he’ll be a popular single; #5 CODY’S WISH: Has won five of his last six and has clearly turned into a very good one-turn miler. He’s posted back-to-back triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures, but I wonder if this seven-furlong trip is a bit shorter than his best distance; #1 BABY YODA: Is another that loves Saratoga, with a 3-for-3 local mark. One of those races saw him post a freakish 114 Beyer Speed Figure, and he exits a solid score at this route early in the meet.

Luni Sima
Life Changer
Baltasar

#8 LUNI SIMA: Lost all chance at the start last time out, when he settled for fourth behind some talented runners at this level downstate. His races prior to that this season were pretty solid, his lone start at seven furlongs was a win at Gulfstream Park, and I think he’ll be going the right way late; #2 LIFE CHANGER: Was second earlier this meet after setting a legitimate early pace, and he’s another that sports a win at this tricky seven-furlong distance. Joel Rosario rides back for John Terranova, and he seems like the main early speed; #5 BALTASAR: Is a consistent sort that generally runs the same race every time. He was fourth last month in the same race my second choice exits, and he has enough tactical speed to work out an ideal stalking trip in what hits me as a wide-open starter allowance.

Ranger Fox
Maxwell Esquire
Cazadero

#5 RANGER FOX: Sure looks far better if you toss his route races. His last-out victory going short on turf at Belmont was very good, he seems like the main speed here, and a step forward second off the bench would make him a tough one to reel in; #2 MAXWELL ESQUIRE: Cuts back to his preferred trip after not finding a two-turn mile to be to his liking last time out. This 5-year-old veteran has run well against tough groups downstate, and he does sport a win at this route (though not a recent one); #7 CAZADERO: Has been off seven months, but a quick glance at his PP’s shows he’s a very fast horse that can run a big race when he’s right. This is his turf debut, but he’s got a grass-friendly pedigree, being by Street Sense and out of a mare who’s a full sister to a stakes-placed turf sprinter.

Jack Christopher
Gunite
Conagher

#6 JACK CHRISTOPHER: Is 4-for-4 around one turn and has never been seriously tested in those races. His first career defeat came last time out in the Grade 1 Haskell, but that was going much longer. He’s back doing what he wants to do and looks like a handful in the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens; #8 GUNITE: Has a pair of graded stakes wins over this surface, including the Grade 2 Amsterdam from a few weeks ago. He’s also got two victories going this seven-furlong distance, and he could be sitting right off the favorite’s flank going into the turn; #1 CONAGHER: Has developed into a very fast horse with wins in three of his last four outings. One of those was a score in a seven-furlong stakes race at Colonial Downs, and he handed Gunite a resounding defeat three back when earning an impressive 105 Beyer Speed Figure.

Clairiere
Malathaat
Search Results

#3 CLAIRIERE: Has won three of four starts this season after taking a big leap forward from age three to age four. She comes in on a two-race win streak over many of the rivals she faces in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign, and her usual effort gives her a big chance to extend it; #5 MALATHAAT: Has run second behind Clairiere twice in a row, but did win last year’s Grade 1 Alabama over this surface. Todd Pletcher blames the heat for a bit of a dud in the Grade 2 Shuvee, and it’s tough to hold much against a horse that’s never missed the board in 11 career tries; #2 SEARCH RESULTS: Shipped to Monmouth Park to win the Grade 3 Molly Pitcher, and that day’s runner-up came back to win the Summer Colony last week. This is a considerable step up in class, to be sure, but she pressed a scorching pace in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps and may be up to the task.

R10

Broome
Soldier Rising
Adhamo

#3 BROOME: Ships back across the Atlantic for Aidan O’Brien and looms large in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer. His lone prior U.S. start was a hard-luck second in the Breeders’ Cup Turf where he did everything but win, and he’s since been running against some of the top thoroughbreds in Europe; #8 SOLDIER RISING: Got up in the last stride to win his local prep for this event and has a load of back class. He ran second behind Melbourne Cup winner State of Rest and Breeders’ Cup Turf hero Yibir a season ago, and there should be plenty of pace signed on to set up for him to come flying late at a price; #1 ADHAMO: Earned his first Grade 1 win in the United Nations at Monmouth Park last time out. He’s yet to fire a bad shot in North America since coming here over the winter, and Flavien Prat is riding as well as anyone in the colony at this stand.

R11

Epicenter
Early Voting
Cyberknife

#6 EPICENTER: Has danced a lot of dances this season and looms large in the Grade 1 Travers. The runner-up in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes won the Grade 2 Jim Dandy impressively despite rating behind a pretty moderate pace, and this ultra-consistent colt’s usual effort would make him tough to deny; #7 EARLY VOTING: Came up empty in the Jim Dandy, but I expect an improved effort here. For a race of this magnitude, there isn’t a lot of early pace signed on. Of the three runners from this barn, he’s the one I think could get very comfortable on or near the lead and be in prime position when the real running starts; #1 CYBERKNIFE: Benefited from a picture-perfect ride to win the Grade 1 Haskell at Monmouth Park over some talented horses. This field’s lone two-time Grade 1 winner has a sheet that looks far better if you toss his Kentucky Derby clunker, but that Haskell effort was a significant move forward on figures. Can he repeat that performance? He might have to.

R12

Heymackit’sjack
Empire Sky
Sir John

#7 HEYMACKIT’SJACK: Has run second against similar foes in back-to-back tries and seems to be in a “now or never” situation against this bunch. Blinkers come on, Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back, and I think he sits a perfect stalking trip just off the pace; #4 EMPIRE SKY: Has run third in a pair of open events at Monmouth Park and ships here to go against state-bred competition. These may be shallower waters, and he’s lightly-raced enough to still have some room for improvement (which would put him right there); #8 SIR JOHN: Cuts back to a sprint in his second start off a long layoff and probably needed his last-out effort. He showed some early interest that day before fading to sixth, but this barn keeps him at this level and retains the first-call rider. At his likely price, he hits me as a must-use.

R13

Jane Grey (MTO)
Salimah
Miss Tapirado

#6 SALIMAH: Gets a tepid nod in a wide-open finale. She was very impressive breaking her maiden at Tampa Bay Downs by nearly five lengths over the winter, and it helps her cause that that day’s runner-up came back to win at next asking; #9 MISS TAPIRADO: Took a step forward last time out when second at this level and distance at Belmont. She’s won going two turns before (albeit prior to a very long layoff), and the new dimension she showed sitting off the pace last time out will be helpful here; #2 INVINCIBLE GAL: Ran reasonably well when third in her first start off the bench last month. She’s logical on figures, but she also hasn’t won in more than two years. Much of that time has been spent running against stakes foes, so some of that is easily forgiven, but her likely price does hit me as a bit of an underlay.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/26/22)

Posted on August 25 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $809.45

Horse racing is a pari-mutuel game. We all pool our money against one another and root our lungs out trying to get our individual tickets home. However, there’s an unspoken respect among those who handicap and post picks for every race, on every card, at one of the hardest places to win in the game (side note: If anyone thinks that respect doesn’t exist on my end, with regard to anyone who does this in any publication, go take a long walk off a short pier).

With that in mind, I’ll use this space to plug fellow Pink Sheet handicapper Liam Durbin’s latest book. “Fathers Wait” is available on Amazon in paperback form. Liam didn’t ask me for this space, or for my opinion, but I’ll simply say this: Having worked with him in some form or fashion for the better part of a decade, I can tell you anything he does is going to be good.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: I was dead right in trying to beat St. Joe Louis, who did indeed falter as a post-time favorite for the ninth time in 10 career outings. However, I only had winner Royal Spirit underneath, not on top, so I found a way to simultaneously be correct and drop $32.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: In a card full of fantastic betting races, I’ll focus on the eighth, the Yaddo Handicap. My top pick is #7 MARVELOUS MAUDE, who I’ll key in $4 exactas above and below #1 ICE PRINCESS, #5 RUNAWAY RUMOUR, and #10 CLASSIC LADY. I’ll also have a $6 win bet on her, and she’s a single in a cold $5 double ending in the eighth that uses #5 ANDIAMO A FIRENZE in the seventh (the Funny Cide).

TOTAL WAGERED: $35.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Maple Leaf Mel, Race 1
Longshot: Slow Decision, Race 11

Maple Leaf Mel
Les Bon Temps
Song Parody

#3 MAPLE LEAF MEL: Drew off with something in reserve earlier this month, and in doing so ran to her lofty $150,000 price tag from a sale earlier this year. Any sort of step forward would make her very tough to beat in this New York-Bred Showcase Day opener; #2 LES BON TEMPS: Comes in to face state-breds for the first time after chasing the talented Wonder Wheel in the Debutante at Churchill Downs. These are shallower waters, at least on paper, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she takes a step forward; #1 SONG PARODY: Made her debut a winning one downstate back in June and has since moved to the barn of Christophe Clement. She may not be alone up front early on, but she may have the early speed to turn the rail draw into an asset.

Clement entry
Photon
Funny How

CLEMENT ENTRY: I prefer #1A VOLEUSE, who cuts back to six furlongs and has an experience edge over much of this group. She’s shown an ability to pass others late, which could come in handy in a race with some early zip; #3 PHOTON: Was second last time out in a race my top pick exits, and this one beat that one home on that occasion. I think there’s a chance she wants more ground, not less, but she also certainly seems to be moving forward; #4 FUNNY HOW: Was third last time out downstate and sports a few flashy local drills ahead of her second lifetime outing. Improvement is logical at second asking, and she doesn’t need to step forward much to be a factor here.

Barese
Price Discipline
Montebello

#4 BARESE: Has been running exclusively against stakes company since breaking his maiden as a 2-year-old. He was an impressive winner of the New York Derby at Finger Lakes last time out, and perhaps two turns is the route he’s wanted all along; #1 PRICE DISCIPLINE: Cruised home to top first-level allowance foes last month and takes a logical step up into stakes company in the Albany. It wouldn’t be a shock if he goes off favored given the connections, and we know he relishes this route of ground; #3 MONTEBELLO: Capitalized on a perfect trip last time out and will try two turns here in his first start for new trainer Todd Pletcher. I don’t love betting horses off of perfect-trip scores, though, and in this case, I’m not sure he’ll be able to get comfortable in the early stages.

Chulligan
Quick to Accuse
Michael Leis

#4 CHULLIGAN: Is by Justify, out of Grade 1 winner Bar of Gold, and fetched $825,000 at auction last summer. He’s been working like a very promising 2-year-old for Christophe Clement, who’s enlisted first-call rider Joel Rosario to hop aboard; #2 QUICK TO ACCUSE: Fetched $200,000 at the OBS sale this past spring and sports a few solid local drills ahead of his unveiling. If my top pick doesn’t fire, it’s anyone’s race to win, and it wouldn’t be surprising if this one was a runner; #8 MICHAEL LEIS: Earned a bullet for a three-furlong drill a few days ago and makes his debut for Mike Maker and Luis Saez. This trainer/jockey combination is one of the best on the circuit, and both prior foals out of this dam to race have won.

Fingal’s Cave
Venti Valentine
Let Her Inspire U

#2 FINGAL’S CAVE: Improved to 3-for-3 with an easy score in her first two-turn outing last month. She’s shown this distance won’t trip her up, and while the Fleet Indian Stakes does represent a class hike, it certainly seems like she’s read to handle it; #5 VENTI VALENTINE: Earned a spot in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks earlier this year and certainly seems fast enough to go with my top pick early on. I do wonder if she’s better going slightly shorter, but she may be fast enough to clear this bunch from her outside post; #1 LET HER INSPIRE U: Stretches out to a route of ground after two straight wins sprinting. One of them came over this surface late last month, and while the pedigree doesn’t scream “two turns,” she does fit on figures and wouldn’t be a gigantic stunner.

Kiss Me Smile (MTO)
U Should Be Dancing
Tis a Pity

#10 U SHOULD BE DANCING: Seems to have found her form after taking a long time to break her maiden. She’s won twice in her last four starts, where she hasn’t been worse than third and has shown a much-improved closing kick; #9 TIS A PITY: Was second at this level and route last time, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s bet down from her 9/2 morning like price. She beat my top pick two back going seven furlongs and has been second at this route twice in as many local outings; #4 AUNT VIRGINIA: Has run well in both starts of her two-race career and tries winners for the first time. She chased a heavy favorite home in her debut at Delaware, won a photo here last time out, and is lightly-raced enough to have plenty of room to improve.

Andiamo a Frienze
Acoustic Ave
Donegal Surges

#5 ANDIAMO A FIRENZE: Headlines the Funny Cide, which has drawn several promising state-bred 2-year-olds and is one of my favorite races of the day. He splashed home to win his debut in the slop before running third in the Grade 3 Sanford, and he seems like the one to catch; #1 ACOUSTIC AVE: Won his debut like a very good horse, when he was less affected by a very slow, tiring surface than his rivals and won by nearly eight lengths. This is a much tougher group than that one, but he may very well be talented enough to win here, too; #4 DONEGAL SURGES: Rallied from sixth to win his unveiling and is wheeled back pretty quickly by a barn that doesn’t usually do this. No works since that victory is a bit of a red flag, but it takes a mature horse to rate and win at first asking and he’d benefit from a pace meltdown.

Marvelous Maude
Runaway Rumour
Ice Princess

#7 MARVELOUS MAUDE: Has never missed the board in eight career starts and won at this route earlier this summer despite a rough trip. She’s one of the higher weights in this Yaddo Handicap (which puzzles me since she’s giving weight to stakes winners despite not being one herself), but it’s tough to go against a consistent horse doing what she wants to do; #5 RUNAWAY RUMOUR: Hasn’t won since June of last year but has spent most of the past year-plus going against much better horses. Her running lines feature the likes of Bleecker Street, Princess Grace, and Plum Ali, among others, and this spot represents significant class relief; #1 ICE PRINCESS: Is an ultra-consistent mare that seems to fire the same shot every time out regardless of surface. She was second last time out in her first start since April, and the inside post on this inner turf course could be an asset given her tactical speed.

Key Point
Who Hoo Thats Me
Anejo

#3 KEY POINT: Gets a reluctant nod in an optional claiming event that looks much more like a stakes race. He’s never fired a bad shot, is a nose away from being 3-for-3, and has enough flexibility in his running style to give Manny Franco plenty of options out of the gate; #7 WHO HOO THATS ME: Is a closer in a race that seems full of early speed, which makes him one that’s hard to ignore. His last-out win at Belmont was a career-best race, Flavien Prat sees fit to ride back, and the recent uptick in his morning workouts is hard to ignore; #12 ANEJO: Does his best running over this surface and was a fast-closing second behind a very nice horse in a similar spot a few weeks ago. Toss the turf and synthetic races, and this late-runner’s form looks much, much better.

R10

Bankit (MTO)
Somelikeithotbrown
Cross Border

#3 SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN: Ran off in the Lure earlier this month and comes back against state-bred competition. Assuming he can relax a bit, his best shot will make this multiple graded stakes-winner tough to beat in a fantastic renewal of the West Point; #7 CROSS BORDER: Completes a powerful 1-2 punch for trainer Mike Maker, even though this 8-year-old’s all-time best efforts may be behind him. Even so, he was beaten just four lengths in the Grade 2 Bowling Green, and it’s tough to ignore a local record that features six wins in nine starts over this turf course; #5 CITY MAN: Comes in off a victory in the Grade 3 Forbidden Apple, but doesn’t get much in the way of class relief here. He’d benefit from a hot pace, and there is some speed signed on, but that last-out 104 Beyer Speed Figure came with a picture-perfect trip that may not replicate itself here.

R11

On Palm Sunday
Addicted to You
Slow Decision

#2 ON PALM SUNDAY: Gets another shot from me after probably going a bit too fast last time out when he didn’t necessarily have to. He once again seems like the lone speed, which is dangerous on the inner turf, and unlike last time, he doesn’t have to clear most of the field to get to the rail; #11 ADDICTED TO YOU: Is 0-for-12 but has run second in each of his last three starts, including the race my top pick exits. The far outside post is a problem, but Flavien Prat knows this gelding well and he’d benefit from another runner going with my top pick; #10 SLOW DECISION: Comes back to the turf in his first start off the claim by Peter Walder, who has shown over the years that he can win with new acquisitions. He probably moved a bit early in his debut on the lawn down at Belmont, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he moves forward off of the last-out clunker despite the wide post.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/25/22)

Posted on August 23 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $841.45

Cheap plug: I’ll be on the HHH Racing Podcast Thursday evening to preview the power-packed Travers Day program. You can watch live at 7:30 pm Eastern time on the HHH Racing Podcast YouTube channel. There’s always an active comments section, which makes for lively discussion and fun debate. We’ll focus primarily on Saturday’s late Pick Five, but that’s not to say we’ll ignore other races on the program.

I was on a few weeks ago and had an awesome time talking shop, and I don’t expect this show to be any different. Howard, Peter, and Paul do amazing work and have as in-depth a library of episodes as any show I’ve come across (I should know, I used to host one). Hope to see you all there Thursday evening!

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: My action was washed out when the steeplechase race was cancelled.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the third, where I’ll hope #6 ST. JOE LOUIS is a beaten favorite for (not a misprint) the ninth time in his 10th career start. My $5 doubles starting in that event use #3 ICARUS and #7 MERCI there, followed by #5 SECRET THUNDER and #7 EE YAH in the fourth. Additionally, I’ll play $2 exactas using Icarus and Merci on top of those two, #4 ROYAL SPIRIT, and St. Joe Louis.

TOTAL WAGERED: $32.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Ee Yah, Race 4
Longshot: Danzigwiththestars, Race 7

Monterey Peninsula
Necromancer
Supersonic

#6 MONTEREY PENINSULA: Debuts for Wesley Ward, whose barn has been firing on all cylinders at this stand. This certainly seems like a very weak spot for a first-time starter to be unveiled, and the cushy outside draw is a big plus; #2 NECROMANCER: Has a record that looks far better if you solely consider the dirt sprints. He probably moved a bit too early last time when fourth at Monmouth Park, but he’s got back races at Aqueduct that would give him a chance; #4 SUPERSONIC: Sold for $175,000 and debuts with a tag that’s just over 10% of that total. That’s a red flag, but he does sport a solid local worktab and wouldn’t be a gigantic surprise in the Thursday opener.

Playlist
Lady Caraggio
Reflexivity

#10 PLAYLIST: Hammered for $400,000 at Keeneland last September and has been training forwardly for Wesley Ward (who could conceivably sweep the early double). Her dam is a stakes-winning half-sister to top turf miler Gio Ponti, and this one’s a half to Grade 3 winner You’re To Blame; #6 LADY CARAGGIO: Has an all-European pedigree that says she’ll love the lawn, and Bill Mott-trained firsters have been running fairly well all summer long. She’s been working steadily (and pretty fast, too), and I wouldn’t be surprised if she was ready right away; #11 REFLEXIVITY: Needs a scratch to draw in off the also-eligible list but merits plenty of respect if she does. This Irish-bred is another with turf up and down in the pedigree, as her dam was a Group 3-winning turf sprinter overseas.

Cryo (MTO)
Icarus
Merci

#3 ICARUS: Drops way down in class after being beaten three lengths by optional claiming foes downstate. This event for non-winners of two is a significantly weaker spot, and this one ran several very strong races this past spring in Kentucky; #7 MERCI: Was claimed out of his last race by Jose Camejo, who’s been as good as anybody with new acquisitions. He suffered from a wide trip in his local debut, and he could move forward if he’s able to save any ground here; #6 ST. JOE LOUIS: Gets a mention here, but is a horse I cannot endorse on top. He has lost at odds of 6/5 or shorter on five straight occasions, and it’s not like he’s been running against world-beaters. If he beats me, he beats me.

Ee Yah
Secret Thunder
Warman Road

#7 EE YAH: Debuted running second at Monmouth in what’s turned out to be a key race. That day’s winner hit the board in the Grade 3 Sanford, the third-place finisher came right back to win, and I think this one looms large dropping in for a tag; #5 SECRET THUNDER: Debuts for a patient barn and has every right to need a race. However, the last few local workouts have been pretty sharp, including an August 8th gate drill that was eighth-fastest of 51 that day. Offspring of Bolt d’Oro have shown themselves to be precocious, and this one attracts Luis Saez; #3 WARMAN ROAD: Debuts for Rob Atras and sports some decent-looking drills at Belmont Park. Every prior foal from this dam that’s raced has won, including a minor stakes-winner in Louisiana.

Amount
Direct Order
Locally Owned

#3 AMOUNT: Ran horribly last time out, and I’m willing to forgive that clunker. He won three in a row earlier this year at three different racetracks, and while there’s every chance his best days are behind him, anything close to his best would make him tough to beat; #1 DIRECT ORDER: Has bounced around barns a lot lately, and for good reason given his 12 career victories. One of them came here just a few weeks ago, and I expect him to come running late beneath Luis Saez; #8 LOCALLY OWNED: Hasn’t done much running since upsetting a rich stakes race last fall at Belmont. He drops way down the ladder for this one, and he’s another that could be a win threat if he channels his best form.

Light Stars
Rocky Sky
Beside Herself

#7 LIGHT STARS: Might have needed her U.S. debut, which came off a nine-month break. She contested some very strong races overseas, including the Group 1 Prix de Diane. I’m expecting improvement second off the bench, and that could put her in the winner’s circle over a very tough field; #8 ROCKY SKY: Ran second in a race at this level last time out and stretches out to a marathon distance here. She ran very well to win a minor stakes race overseas going 1 1/4 miles, and this trip may be what she needs to record her first North American triumph; #2 BESIDE HERSELF: Was third behind Walkathon and McKulick in the Grade 3 Regret two starts back. She tries this 12-furlong journey for the first time, but she’s got the pedigree to handle it and may still be moving forward in the middle of her 3-year-old season.

Tiwanaku (MTO)
Danzigwiththestars
Dripping Gold

#3 DANZIGWITHTHESTARS: Is 3-for-5 at Saratoga (and 0-for-9 elsewhere), and one of those wins came in a swiftly-run optional claiming event at the beginning of the meet. She goes outside of the state-bred ranks for this one, but it’s tough to go against an in-form horse that clearly loves this course; #5 DRIPPING GOLD: Got marooned in post #11 last time out and may have moved a little early. He was talented enough to win at first asking here last summer, and he’ll add blinkers for his third start of the season; #1 JAMES JONES: Ran on late to be beaten less than two lengths last time out, and that day’s winner came right back to win at next asking. He’s shown an ability to make up ground late, and he’d benefit from a lively pace that could set up for the way he runs.

Tizzy in the Sky
Handbelle
Precursory

#5 TIZZY IN THE SKY: Settled for second in her debut after doing some of the dirty work up front. That day’s third-place finisher came right back to win, she exits a bullet drill for new trainer Jose Camejo, and Joel Rosario sees fit to ride back; #1 HANDBELLE: Hasn’t raced since October and adds Lasix for her 3-year-old debut. Bill Mott knows how to win off of long breaks, and while the inside draw’s a bit tricky, the consistent works are a plus and she may be ready to run; #8 PRECURSORY: Is the other Mott trainee, and she’s run fairly well downstate. The outside draw could be beneficial, but it’s worth wondering why Joel Rosario hopped off to ride my top pick.

Skims
Wonka
A Mo Reay

#3 SKIMS: Drops in class to contest the Riskaverse after running against graded company in each of her last three outings. This field isn’t bad, but it’s a far cry from the likes of Spendarella, Consumer Spending, and Dolce Zel, and I think she’ll appreciate the class relief; #11 WONKA: Was a fast-closing fourth in the Grade 3 Soaring Softly downstate and stretches back out to two turns. The far-outside post is far from ideal, but we know two turns shouldn’t be an issue and there should be some pace signed on; #10 A MO REAY: Tries turf for the first time and is bred to love it. She’s out of Grade 3-placed turfer Margaret Reay and boasts a strong 341 turf Tomlinson figure, so it wouldn’t be surprising if she’s wanted the grass all along.

R10

Stainless Steel (MTO)
Digital Future
Sandrone

#6 DIGITAL FUTURE: Has been off 11 months and runs for a tag in his comeback race. For most outfits, this would be a red flag, but this one’s aggressive enough to where it doesn’t scare me. His 2021 races were solid, and any forward progression off of those figures would make him tough in the Thursday finale; #5 SANDRONE: Drops in for a tag after showing some speed in a pair of outings against allowance foes. This race seems light on quality speed, and I think Luis Saez will be able to work out a trip aboard a runner that showed some potential a season ago; #2 AFTER FIVE: Speaking of potential, this one chased Golden Pal in the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. He’s won just once since but makes his first start off the claim for an astute outfit, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a move forward in his second start off a short freshening.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/24/22)

Posted on August 23 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $841.45

There are times where I wonder if I’m doing things wrong, and horse racing Twitter doesn’t do anything to quiet those doubts. We’re three-quarters of the way through the meet, and the tweets I’ve put out that have had the most engagement involve the price of breakfast at San Francisco International Airport, Christophe Clement’s magical salmon pants, and newspapers on benches (more on those Saturday; that’s called foreshadowing, kids!).

But then there are times where I think I’m onto something. As I tweeted Monday, my site, AndrewChampagne.com, set a record with 22,000 visitors last summer, when I had the Saratoga meet of my life. With 11 racing days to go, we’ve eclipsed that total, and 30,000 is a total that’s within sight.

I’m weird. I think there’s value in hard work and pushing out the best content one can on a daily basis. Times have changed, and there aren’t as many people doing what I do anymore. To those of you that have taken the time to read my stuff: Thanks.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Devamani got no pace to close into, and I had the race after that one wrong, too. I dropped $30.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: Let’s add another variable to my action and, for the first time this summer, play a steeplechase race. I’ll focus on the early double, which starts with the Michael G. Walsh Novice Stakes. My $4 tickets start with #1 FREDDY FLINTSHIRE and #7 SCORPION’S REVENGE, and end with #3 GAMBLING GIRL and #7 AUGUST BLOOM.

TOTAL WAGERED: $16.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Roderick, Race 5
Longshot: Drakon, Race 7

Scorpion’s Revenge
Freddy Flintshire
Decisive Triumph

#7 SCORPION’S REVENGE: Came from way back to win a listed stakes race last time out, and he’s 3-for-3 going 2 1/4 miles or longer over fences. This 2 3/8-mile trip should hit him right between the eyes, and I think he’ll be tough to hold off; #1 FREDDY FLINTSHIRE: Made it two in a row with a solid score over allowance foes earlier this summer. He goes out for one of the top barns on the steeplechase circuit, gets one of the top riders, and is a major player provided he takes to the added distance; #3 DECISIVE TRIUMPH: Hasn’t won in a while but has hit the board four times in as many starts this season, all in stakes races. Most recently, he was second in the Kiser a few weeks ago, and he figures to be prominent from the jump (no pun intended).

Gambling Girl
August Bloom
Maddie’s Grace

#3 GAMBLING GIRL: Has had two pretty rough trips in both of her outings and gets one more chance from me here. She’s shown late interest twice now, and this Todd Pletcher trainee runs like a horse that’ll appreciate this seven-furlong journey; #7 AUGUST BLOOM: Debuts for Joe Sharp, sports a few solid drills, and may benefit from a cushy outside draw. This daughter of Arrogate attracts Luis Saez, who likely had several options here; #5 MADDIE’S GRACE: Was an OK third in her debut race, and that day’s runner-up has since come back to win. This barn has been ice-cold all meet long, but improvement is logical at second asking, and of the ones that have run before, she seems to have the most early speed.

Tommy Gun (MTO)
Built to Last
Sharp Sensation

#4 BUILT TO LAST: Almost certainly went too fast early on last time when fifth against maiden special weight foes. He drops in for a tag for the first time, and while it’s not as big a drop as it may seem given the shared state-bred condition, he sure looks like the one to catch; #5 SHARP SENSATION: Settled for second behind a much-the-best winner at this level and route earlier in the meet. He crossed the wire first in a similar race downstate before being disqualified, and Luis Saez sees fit to ride back; #1 SOUTHERN CIVILITY: Comes back to turf, which is probably his preferred surface, and would benefit from a pace meltdown. It’s not like he’s gotten routed in his two prior turf sprints, and he figures to be a big price.

Brawndo
Cole Spur
Cathedral Beach

#2 BRAWNDO: Was third in his first start off a freshening down at Laurel Park and comes up from Maryland for this event. What intrigues me most is that he brings that day’s pilot along with him for just one single mount. This makes me think he’s well-meant against what hits me as a suspect field for the level; #4 COLE SPUR: Has a record that looks far better if you toss the two-back clunker against a far better starter allowance group. He was second when last seen at Churchill back in June, and he’s got the speed to be a factor from a very early stage; #3 CATHEDRAL BEACH: Capitalized on a big class drop earlier this summer with a runaway score. He was claimed out of that race and tries open claiming company after thrashing that field of non-winners of two.

Roderick
Kinetic Sky
Good Culture

#5 RODERICK: Has shown early speed against far better horses and takes a drop in class to this restricted claiming event. Trainer Phil Bauer has been sending out live horses all summer long, and I think this one gets very comfortable dictating terms early on; #6 KINETIC SKY: May have needed his 2022 debut, which came off a very long break. He’s another class-dropper, and it helps that the last-out second-place finisher came back to win impressively last week; #3 GOOD CULTURE: Was third last time out in a race without a lot of early pace, which didn’t exactly play to his strengths. He generally runs the same race every time out, and he’d benefit from another rival going with my top pick as the field exits the Wilson chute.

King Angelo
Under Oath
Thin White Duke

#5 KING ANGELO: Is certainly a “horse for course” that does his best running going short on turf at Saratoga. He earned a 91 Beyer Speed Figure in his wire-to-wire score last time out, and while this is a pretty good field, it’s tough for me to go against a horse that likes this track and seems to be in peak form; #3 UNDER OATH: Ran too poorly to be true last time out in his first race since the spring. He tries turf for the first time, but is kin to a three-time turf winner that contested last year’s Grade 3 Virginia Derby, so there’s reason to believe he’ll like the lawn; #6 THIN WHITE DUKE: Came flying late to be beaten a neck by the freakishly-fast Golden Pal, and my guess is he’ll go favored here. A repeat of that effort may win this one, but he sure seems to go out of his way to find trouble, and I hate picking horses like that on top (especially in sprint races that don’t leave much time for a runner to recover from poor racing luck).

Drakon
The Prince’s Spur
Proven Hope

#9 DRAKON: Certainly looks like the lone early speed, which is always dangerous on Saratoga’s inner turf course. Kendrick Carmouche is one of the most aggressive gate riders on the circuit, and the game plan seems apparent: Get to the lead, get comfortable, and try to steal it at a bit of a price; #8 THE PRINCE’S SPUR: Drops in for a tag after a rough trip earlier this summer against maiden special weight foes. He was still fourth that day, beaten less than four lengths, and he should certainly appreciate the shallower waters; #5 PROVEN HOPE: Comes back to turf and tries two turns for the first time, and I think this is what he wants to do. Sire Street Boss is an excellent turf influence, and broodmare sire Smart Strike is one of the top stamina influences in the game.

Lil Commissioner
Crypto Cash
Boldish

#5 LIL COMMISSIONER: Makes his first start for a small barn that’s enjoyed plenty of success at this stand. He woke up on a big class drop last time out, has a race history that includes some pretty heavy hitters, and may be tough if he runs his usual race; #2 CRYPTO CASH: Has hit the board in each of his last six starts and has bounced around between barns on this circuit. A few of his races downstate were very good, and he’d benefit from a fast pace that could very well materialize; #3 BOLDISH: Scratched out of a race earlier this summer where I tried to beat him, but I think he isn’t without a chance here. He’s been off since January but got very good late last year, when he won three in a row for this outfit (including one race at this route).

Tide of the Sea
Bluegrass Parkway
Oceans Map

#3 TIDE OF THE SEA: May not be the horse he was a year or two ago, but he sure seems like the lone early speed in the John’s Call. If he’s allowed to get comfortable and dictate terms in this 1 5/8-mile turf marathon, I’m not sure anyone will be able to come get him; #2 BLUEGRASS PARKWAY: Showed a bit more early interest last time, when he was beaten less than four lengths in a similar spot at Colonial Downs. This is his third start off the bench for Mike Maker, and he showed enough late last year for his connections to run him in the Grade 1 Canadian International at Woodbine; #4 OCEANS MAP: Ships up from Monmouth, where he most recently ran a fast-closing second going a bit shorter. However, he won a stakes race at Delaware Park going 1 1/2 miles last summer, so this sort of trip isn’t entirely foreign to him.

R10

Chaysenbryn (MTO)
Control Function
Quaria Thunder

#8 CONTROL FUNCTION: Hasn’t run since January, but is working consistently ahead of her return and showed some potential before going to the sidelines. These are aggressive connections that could’ve found a much softer spot, and a return to her winter form would make her tough; #10 QUARIA THUNDER: Has improved since shipping up to New York, and sports two wins and two seconds since making that journey. This is a class test, and the outside post doesn’t help, but Jose Camejo does fantastic work with new acquisitions and she may have the speed to clear most of these going into the first turn; #5 STELLA MARS: Didn’t get up last time out, and in doing so made my all-time nightmare reel (I needed her pretty badly that day). Maybe it’s scorn, but it’s worth noting that while her usual race gives her a chance, both of her wins came sprinting downstate. This begs the question: Does she want two turns?