BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $985.50

As Richard Migliore said on Thursday’s NYRA broadcast, when you accumulate seconds and thirds at Saratoga, it’s frustrating. He was referring to jockeys, but as handicappers, we’ve all had bouts of the dreaded disease known as seconditis, and mine has been present since the start of the meet.

It’s gotten so severe that I got a text message from a fellow Pink Sheet handicapper after I shockingly won a photo finish with Miztertonic in Thursday’s fourth race. It’d be nice to finish strong and put a bow on a summer that’s been…challenging, to put it mildly, for several reasons.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: This section got a shelter from seconditis, as best bet Perfect Shot never looked like a loser in the eighth. $40 in bets returned an even $206, thanks to a $30 win bet and a winning $5 exacta with runner-up Catherine Wheel.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: We’ll go to the seventh, where I really like #4 SYSTEMIC CHANGE and I’ll maintain Thursday’s betting strategy. I’ll have a $30 win bet on that one and key him in $5 exactas with #1 MARGIN OF AIR and #5 MANTA REY.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Systemic Change, Race 7
Longshot: Brocknardini, Race 9

R1

Fourth and One (MTO)
Cristobal
Three Thirteen

#7 CRISTOBAL (4/5): Didn’t run badly in his debut, when he was wide and finished third last month. He adds blinkers at second asking, retains Flavien Prat, and looks tough to go against in the Friday lid-lifter; #4 THREE THIRTEEN (9/2): Set a fast pace in the same race my top pick exits and blew the turn before dropping out. He’ll likely be the one dictating terms early, and if he’s gained maturity, perhaps he could break through at second asking; #8 MAKE A PREDICTION (6-1): Was one paced in his debut for a barn whose first-time starters often need a race to get going. He was wide that day and is another that may move forward given a start under his belt.

R2

Bourbon Breeze
Tricky Temper
Princess Madison

#6 BOURBON BREEZE (4-1): Gets Lasix back after a pair of efforts against stakes company, and it’s not like she ran terribly against those foes. Her early-season races on Lasix were strong, and Irad Ortiz Jr., who likely had several options in this spot, lands here; #5 TRICKY TEMPER (9/5): Was a good second behind a much-the-best winner in a stakes race last time out, and she’s another dropping in class. Three of her four career wins have come at the Spa, and she won a New York-bred stakes race at this route last summer; #2 PRINCESS MADISON (7/2): Was probably too far back last time, when she finished a distant third after taking quite a bit of betting money. She wants to be close to the pace, and that’s a trip she should sit in this spot for a barn that’s started to heat up of late.

R3

Iron Orchard
Shakti
Angel Gift

#3 IRON ORCHARD (4/5): Never looked like a loser in her debut, which she won by more than five lengths with plenty in reserve. I’m not quite sure what she beat that day, but she’s been working well since and seems like the one to beat in the Seeking the Ante; #5 SHAKTI (7/2): Also went wire-to-wire in her unveiling, and that day’s runner-up came back to win at next asking. This barn’s first-time starters often need experience, but she seems pretty talented and could still have room to improve; #1 ANGEL GIFT (5-1): Didn’t draw a great post for her running style, but may be the lone closer in a race full of early speed. She was 2-1 in the Grade 3 Adirondack, where she may have lost all chance at the break, and perhaps a bounce-back effort is in the cards.

R4

Quick Hammer
Peek
Bold Endeavor

#7 QUICK HAMMER (2-1): Hasn’t run since an April clunker and returns for a bottom-level tag. His lone try at a mile was an impressive two-back score against what was probably a better group, and if he’s ready to go, he and Irad could be tough to beat; #1 PEEK (7/2): Was third at this route for a slightly higher tag last month and could appreciate the slight class drop. Flavien Prat sees fit to ride back, and while the rail draw isn’t ideal, he has at least shown some speed; #4 BOLD ENDEAVOR (3-1): Was second at this level last month and cuts back to a distance where he’s recorded five wins and 16 top-three finishes in 24 of his 50 career outings. The new barn has struggled at this stand, but this 9-year-old gelding is ultra-consistent, and his usual effort would give him a chance in here.

R5

Rice entry
Dialbolico
Wecallemfuncoupons

RICE ENTRY (4/5): Both #2 TARPAULIN and #2B TIOTE could win this, and they make a powerful 1-2 punch. Both were claimed earlier this summer after less-than-ideal trips, and the Ortiz brothers see fit to ride; #4 DIALBOLICO (6-1): Didn’t run well first off the claim last time out, but he’s a closer and that race didn’t have much in the way of early speed. There is some of that signed on here, and he ran a few OK races downstate earlier this season; #5 WECALLEMFUNCOUPONS (8-1): Comes back to dirt after a failed turf experiment and drops down in class, both of which work in his favor. He had enough zip to break his maiden in a tough spot at Churchill way back when, and a Finger Lakes outfit bringing along the local rider always makes me look twice.

R6

Academia (MTO)
Amicable Farce
Actis

#6 AMICABLE FARCE (3-1): Debuts for Chad Brown and sold for $300,000 at Keeneland last year. This daughter of Not This Time is out of multiple stakes winner Rubilinda, a daughter of the great Frankel who won on debut. She’s bred to be both talented and ready to go at first asking and represents powerhouse connections; #3 ACTIS (8-1): Merits a look at a bit of a price after chasing a next-out stakes winner in her unveiling going shorter. Her pedigree says she wants this two-turn trip, as her dam has previously thrown two stakes winners that did their best work going long; #5 CELEBRITY WARRIOR (9/2): Makes her debut for Todd Pletcher and is another with plenty of bloodlines. Dam Guana has also thrown Rumble Inthejungle, a European 2-year-old that won a Group 3 and placed in a Group 1 as a juvenile.

R7

Systemic Change
Margin of Air
Manta Rey

#4 SYSTEMIC CHANGE (4-1): Exits a key race against better competition, one that was won by a solid horse in Gilmore and has already produced two next-out winners. There also seems to be a lot of early speed in here, which should produce a race shape friendly to his late-running style; #1 MARGIN OF AIR (3-1): Won at this level and route in July and was claimed by a sharp outfit that hits at a high clip with new acquisitions. Irad rides back, which is a plus, and while others in here may be quicker early, perhaps horse and rider can work out an ideal stalking trip; #5 MANTA REY (4-1): Hasn’t won in a while but ran well to be second last time out. Like my top pick, he’s a closer in a race that seems to boast a few who want to go early, so he should be going the right way late.

R8

Cagliostro
Money Supply
Mama’s Gold

I’ve only done this once this meet so far, but I can’t say I have a strong opinion here. This is a very deep, challenging event, one that prompted me to hit the “ALL” button on my podcast when analyzing the late Pick Four. If you’re playing multi-race exotics, go as deep as you can here.

R9

Brocknardini
Spinning Colors
Awesome Czech

#6 BROCKNARDINI (10-1): Put it all together last time out for her first win in quite a while, and I think her morning line price would make her an overlay in a strong rendition of the Yaddo. Early speed is sometimes scarce in turf routes, but there’s a fair bit in here, and if this one’s found her form, she could be ready to capitalize on the potential she’s flashed a few times; #4 SPINNING COLORS (7/2): Is one of a few that figure to be forward early on, and she’s gotten very good of late. She was a close-up second in a similar stakes race last time out behind a runner that won again at next asking, and of the likely pace factors, this is the one I most prefer; #2 AWESOME CZECH (6-1): Has three wins and a third in four local starts and is ultra-consistent. She found herself on the lead last time out, which isn’t common for her, but she won anyway over a horse that found the winner’s circle next time out.

R10

Alexis Zorba
Nano Man
Holding the Line

#4 ALEXIS ZORBA (7/2): Takes a big drop in the Friday finale after picking up minor awards in two prior local starts this summer. He’s just 1-for-19 with eight seconds, but this is a much, much weaker group than the ones he’s been running against, and his early speed makes him a legit wire-to-wire threat; #8 NANO MAN (8-1): Ran second at this level and route last month despite a bump at the start. His turf sprints are far better than the other races on his sheet, and one of those efforts was a win here last summer. If my top pick doesn’t want to put away his rivals, I think this one has a big chance at a square price; #11 HOLDING THE LINE (6-1): Hasn’t run since December, but ships in for Wesley Ward and attracts Frankie Dettori. At one time, he was thought of enough to be a 4/5 favorite in a stakes race, and other than my top pick, he looks like the only other serious speed in this turf sprint.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $819.50

There are certain situations from the past that, if replicated today, would make people lose their minds. I found one thanks to Twitter in the form of the 1977 Travers Stakes, a race I’d never seen a replay of before Wednesday morning.

For one thing, Run Dusty Run crossed the wire first that day, but was disqualified and placed second. The original runner-up, Jatski, was herded a bit at the top of the stretch, but never once changed leads, had every chance to go by Run Dusty Run, and didn’t. A present-day scenario like this, in a marquee race, may cause a riot in the grandstand.

For another thing, Seattle Slew, that year’s Triple Crown winner, was nowhere to be found following his no-show in the Swaps. A week later, Dr. Jim Hill was suspended due to his undisclosed partial ownership stake in the champion, who did not race again until the following year.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Everything got moved off the turf, so my action was cancelled for the second day in a row.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: It’s not often my strongest play is in a race out of the Wilson chute, but I like a horse in the eighth quite a bit. That’s #6 PERFECT SHOT, who I think represents value at or near the 5-1 morning line price. I’ll have a $30 win bet, and I’ll also play $5 exactas using her above #2 KHALI MAGIC and #5 CATHERINE WHEEL.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Perfect Shot, Race 8
Longshot: Fonzi Angel, Race 5

R1

City Blocks
Accelerated News
Straca

#3 CITY BLOCKS (3-1): Has won two of her last three starts, and while the last-out victory was in an off-the-turf event, that day’s runner-up has some talent. She runs against New York-breds in the Thursday opener, which is a departure from her recent efforts against open company; #6 ACCELERATED NEWS (5/2): Freaked by 12 lengths last time out in her first-ever dirt start. She certainly ran well that day and could still be improving, although I’m not quite sure what she beat and I question whether or not she may be in line for a “bounce” off a career-best performance; #2 STRACA (6-1): Is one of two David Duggan trainees, and she’s the runner I prefer despite being a bigger price. She’s run just once in the last six months, but her most recent effort in late-June wasn’t bad and she tried stakes competition two starts ago.

R2

Dolce Vino
Birch Run
Athena’s Fury

#3 DOLCE VINO (3-1): Has a bottom-side pedigree that screams turf and hits me as the one to beat if this stays on the lawn. Of the runners in this event with experience, she’s also the only one that’s shown any early speed. Luis Saez figures to get aggressive with this one, and she could get very comfortable; #7 BIRCH RUN (4-1): Is another trying the grass for the first time with some pedigree that hints it’s what she wants. Her dam is a half to two stakes winners, including Hope N Charity, who won one such race in Europe as a 2-year-old; #9 ATHENA’S FURY (12-1): Debuts for Amelia Green and has a sneaky pedigree that says she may have potential. Her dam is kin to millionaire Paso Doble, and her second dam is a half to multiple graded stakes-winning turfer Willow O Wisp.

R3

Kay Cup
Lottie Margaret
Carmen’s Candy Jar

#3 KAY CUP (6/5): Tries two turns for the first time in the Fleet Indian, and that’s a legitimate question mark. However, she was an impressive winner of the Bouwerie last time out in just her third lifetime start. She may be an underlay at her likely price, but the potential she may still have to improve makes her, to me, the most likely winner; #4 LOTTIE MARGARET (5/2): Took the New York Oaks at Finger Lakes last time out over a few of these rivals and ran like a horse that’s wanted two turns all along. That race wasn’t all that fast, but at a minimum, we can safely assume the two-turn route won’t be her undoing; #1 CARMEN’S CANDY JAR (6-1): Misfired on turf last time out but comes back to her preferred surface here. Her two-back win out of the Wilson chute was solid enough, and if she runs back to that, she could grab a big piece of this.

R4

Senegal (MTO)
Miztertonic
Coach Case

#7 MIZTERTONIC (8/5): Didn’t draw in off the AE list on Sunday, but goes here in what looks like a much softer spot. He was second last time out in a race without much early pace. I think he gets some to run at here, and that he’ll be strictly the one to beat at, unfortunately for me, a much shorter price than he would’ve been over the weekend; #6 COACH CASE (7/2): Broke his maiden here in June but didn’t run well last time out in his first try against winners. He hit the gate that day and may have also bounced off of the two-back effort, so there are some reasons to believe he may move forward; #4 OUTTAWATERBURY (8-1): Cuts back after a failed try going three turns last time out. Flavien Prat sees fit to ride for David Donk, and the last time he was aboard this gelding, he guided him to a win at this distance downstate (albeit against a weaker group).

R5

Devilish Grin
Fonzi Angel
River Empress

#6 DEVILISH GRIN (3-1): Made up significant ground late going shorter last time out and goes into a restricted race here. Two turns is an unknown, but her pedigree says she should handle this trip, and a repeat of her last-out effort would make her tough; #3 FONZI ANGEL (10-1): Didn’t run terribly on dirt last time out and tries turf at second asking. Her dam is kin to Wrote, who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, so perhaps she moves forward on the new surface at a price; #10 RIVER EMPRESS (6-1): Drew a less-than-ideal post in her unveiling, but has a bottom-side pedigree that may be good enough to overcome it. Her dam was a stakes winner on the turf who also placed against graded foes, and several of her workouts look pretty sharp.

R6

Jetty’s Home
Clap Back
Donna Romano

#7 JETTY’S HOME (7/2): Ran second at a big price last time out and has since moved to the Saffie Joseph barn. That effort was in the slop, which she’s bred to handle, but further improvement at third asking is far from out of the question; #11 CLAP BACK (3-1): Sports a series of flashy works for Ron Moquett, which is notable because he doesn’t usually push his yet-to-debut horses very hard. Irad rides when he likely had several options, and perhaps he’s good enough to get the money in his debut despite being trained by a patient horseman; #1 DONNA ROMANO (8-1): Debuts for Brad Cox and merits respect despite drawing the rail. She has a few strong gate works on her tab that hint at early speed, and if Manny Franco gets her forward out of the gate, she might be the one they have to catch.

R7

Gellhorn
Gin’s Beach Road
Justine

#2 GELLHORN (4-1): Is a tepid top pick in a wide-open event that starts the late Pick Four. Her first two races got rained off the turf, and the grass seems like what she wants. Add in a rider switch to Irad, and there’s plenty to like; #12 GIN’S BEACH ROAD (7/2): Showed lots of early speed in her debut on dirt and switches to the turf. She’s a full sister to Grade 2 winner Agate Road, who got that distinction in a turf race. The question is, can she overcome an absolutely dreadful far-outside draw and the short run into the turn?; #5 JUSTINE (6-1): Has been working very well for Wesley Ward ahead of her unveiling. This is far from an easy spot, but this daughter of Justify is out of a nine-time winner and has a right to be a runner.

R8

Perfect Shot
Catherine Wheel
Khali Magic

#6 PERFECT SHOT (5-1): Earned her first win since late-2023 last time out at Churchill, when she rallied from fifth to get the job done. I love the recent local works, which include two five-furlong bullets over the Oklahoma track, and she’s spent most of her career going up against some very nice horses; #5 CATHERINE WHEEL (2-1): Placed in three stakes earlier this year and was second going two turns last time out. I do like horses cutting back to this route, rather than ones stretching out, and both of her wins have come at this distance (albeit at a one-turn configuration downstate); #2 KHALI MAGIC (6-1): Goes first off the claim for Fernando Abreu and is another that sees Irad hop aboard. She seems like the main speed, which is always dangerous, and if the barn switch gets her back to her 2024 form, she could have a big shot.

R9

Iron Dome
Train the Trainer
Just Licorice

#4 IRON DOME (7/5): Has won his last two starts by 21 lengths and tries stakes company for the first time in the Albany. Unlike his main rival, he’s shown he can stalk and pounce, which could prove beneficial since there is some other early speed in this heat; #5 TRAIN THE TRAINER (1-1): Hasn’t been behind another horse in three New York outings to this point, and he’s looking to wire a third straight stakes field. On pure talent, he’s probably the one to beat, but the presence of #6 HIT THE POST, another need-the-lead type, might make things difficult on him; #2 JUST LICORICE (15-1): Feels like the lone true closer in here and is spotted aggressively in his first start for Mike Maker. His two-back win out of the chute was a good one, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he clunked up for a piece of this at a big price.

R10

No Ordinary Love
Aperitif
Ultra Cameo

#2 NO ORDINARY LOVE (5/2): Is one of several exiting the same eventful race last month, and she’s got a right to improve. She was last early, had to delay her move turning for home, and came flying late to be beaten less than a length. Smoother sailing makes her the one to beat in the finale; #10 APERITIF (6-1): Was fourth in that event after checking early on, and while the outside post isn’t ideal, at least those circumstances shouldn’t arise again. Her tactical speed is a plus, and if Jose Ortiz can save any ground, she may have room to spring a mild upset; #8 ULTRA CAMEO (10-1): Was never really a factor last time out, and I’m drawing a line straight through that clunker. She missed by just a head two back, and a return to that type of form could make her dangerous at a price.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $819.50

The Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, or HISA, has done more right than some want to admit. A simple glance at falling fatality rates nationwide can confirm this. However, my takeaway from several inquiries, objections, and disqualifications last week is that the organization needs to do more in some respects. I’d argue that this entire process falls under “integrity” and “safety,” and that very few people ever really know what to expect when lights start flashing on the tote board.

Please don’t see this as me bashing stewards. I’m not doing that. In fact, I think NYRA stewards got all three calls right last week. However, would stewards in other states have acted similarly in these situations? There’s no way to know for sure, and horse racing fans have been crying out for consistency and transparency for years.

Why not issue the clearest possible answer to the question, “what is a foul that merits a disqualification?” Such an action would provide a single, public, consistent set of rules. Perhaps there’s no perfect response to that question, but one answer for all to follow would at least make sure we know the lay of the land. Given the power HISA has, this feels doable.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Miztertonic scratched, which cancelled my action.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: Let’s go to the third, where I think #7 CHALKY WHITE will move forward considerably on turf. I’ll have a $40 win bet on him.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Chalky White, Race 3
Longshot: Signal Chat, Race 6

R1

Hidden Path
Zarak the Brave
Givemefive

#2 HIDDEN PATH (10-1): Merits a long look at a price in the Grade 1 Jonathan Sheppard. His win at this route last time out was sharp, and his lone clunker over fences was excusable given it was his first try in over eight months. Further improvement third off the bench would give him a big shot; #6 ZARAK THE BRAVE (4-1): Returned to form last time out with a third in the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick. The top two finishers from that event don’t show up here, and while this is far from a soft spot, a repeat of that effort could get him the money; #1 GIVEMEFIVE (2-1): Merits respect coming over from England (as a note, if you have Brisnet PP’s, they won’t have all of his races), but I don’t think his form towers over that of his rivals here. Given that he’ll carry 158 pounds in his first try over a course like this one, I can’t back him on top at his likely price.

R2

R Disaster
Legadema
Striker Has Dial

#3 R DISASTER (3/5): Did everything but win in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss, when she set a fast pace and was beaten a half-length by a longshot. She takes a significant class drop, gets to run with Lasix, and will be an overwhelming favorite for good reason; #1 LEGADEMA (8-1): Makes her first start in 11 months and showed plenty of form last season. She’s a stakes winner with an ability to stalk and pounce, and while the layoff is a legitimate question mark, she could present some value underneath if she’s ready to go; #4 STRIKER HAS DIAL (5/2): Threw in a rare clunker in the Honorable Miss and gets to run with Lasix again, which she should appreciate. I think she may prefer running downstate to here, but if she can find the early-season form she flashed, she could factor.

R3

Chalky White
Lexington Pike
Mr Browns Town

#7 CHALKY WHITE (3-1): Has a bottom-side pedigree that screams turf, and he finally gets to run on it here. He’s got a considerable experience edge over most of his rivals, and it doesn’t hurt that he looks like he could be the lone speed in this two-turn turf route; #8 LEXINGTON PIKE (5/2): Seems to be training well for Todd Pletcher ahead of his unveiling, and the presence of Irad Ortiz Jr. is noteworthy. There’s not a lot in his pedigree that says he wants the grass, though, and this barn also sends out #5 MISSING BRIAN, which is curious; #3 MR BROWNS TOWN (7/2): Merits respect first time out for Chad Brown, and his pedigree says he wants every bit of two turns. The two-back gate drill is a strong one, but I’m wondering why he’s entered for a $75,000 tag first time out.

R4

Acoustic Ave
Amundson
Stewie

#1 ACOUSTIC AVE (9/5): Ran well to be second last time out and seems to do his best running at the Spa. He’s got two wins in three starts since being claimed by Linda Rice downstate, and he’s a candidate to sit an ideal stalking trip in this one; #6 AMUNDSON (5-1): Didn’t break well last time out and didn’t do much running after that, so I’m inclined to draw a line through it in the form. He’s a 17-time winner with four victories over this track, and a return to form first off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci wouldn’t be out of the question; #4 STEWIE (4-1): Got his nose down last time out against state-breds and takes a bit of a class jump to run here. However, this small barn has yet to finish worse than second at the meet, and he may be the one they have to run down turning for home.

R5

Willpowered
Oat Coutour
Spirit of the Law

#8 WILLPOWERED (4-1): Sold for $200,000 back in 2023 and debuts for Miguel Clement, who’s figured out how to get first-time starters ready to go of late. He’s a half-brother to six winners, and he might not have to be much to make his unveiling a winning one; #6 OAT COUTOUR (5-1): Was second behind a perfect-trip winner last time out and leaves the maiden claiming ranks for this event. Given both that race and this one are for state-breds, that’s not a massive class jump, and further improvement for a horse that seemed to like two turns last time out isn’t out of the question; #3 SPIRIT OF THE LAW (3-1): Was claimed by Mike Maker last time out and figures to be rolling late. This barn does well with new acquisitions, but he’s had a lot of chances and it’s not like there’s a ton of speed signed on here, so I’m not overly enthusiastic given his likely short price.

R6

Hot Currency (MTO)
Ticket to Ride
Signal Chat

#6 TICKET TO RIDE (5/2): Has moved to the Saffie Joseph barn and merits respect after a tough-trip third last time out. That day’s runner-up came back to win, Irad hops aboard here, and she looks like a logical candidate to move forward considerably; #10 SIGNAL CHAT (15-1): Didn’t draw a great post in her debut, but her bottom-side pedigree screams that she may be a solid turf horse. She’s kin to a debut winner, her dam placed in multiple stakes races at similar routes, and I think she could be ready to go at a big price; #3 LAST CALL JENNA (3-1): Is kin to eight winners, including a few stakes-quality runners, and has a right to be a runner herself. Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride, and my only question is if turf is really what she wants.

R7

Passing Game
Notah
Flat On

#2 PASSING GAME (5/2): Goes back to what’s probably the right level for Linda Rice after a clunker first off the claim at Ellis Park. That was over a very sloppy track against a better group, though, and his two-back effort for this tag at Churchill was very good; #5 NOTAH (4-1): Was a good second last time out off the layoff, and I liked him quite a bit when he was entered in a race going shorter earlier in the meet. He figures to be going well late and has a chance, but I wonder if this distance is a bit longer than what he wants; #4 FLAT ON (8-1): Has run well here twice this summer and was second at this route last month. On paper, this is a jump up in class, but I don’t think this came up particularly strong for the level and Kendrick Carmouche has been riding very, very well.

R8

Loco Abarrio (MTO)
Belouni
Johny’s Fireball

#12 BELOUNI (9/2): Is a tepid top pick in a wide-open turf route. He capitalized on the drop in class last time out, and that day’s runner-up came back to win on Sunday. The far-outside post isn’t ideal, but I do think he’ll have plenty of pace to close into, and that should help him; #3 JOHNY’S FIREBALL (4-1): Drops in class for this one and could sit a perfect stalking trip just off of a contested pace. His two-back effort, where he ran second in a swiftly-run race for the level at Churchill, was a very strong one, and if he can channel that form here, he could have a big shot; #11 IRWIN (5-1): Makes his first start since October, but does so for an astute barn that’s had some success at this stand. Frankie Dettori will be aboard, and like my top pick, he figures to benefit from the likely race shape.

R9

Sod Siren
New Attitude
Bolt House

#9 SOD SIREN (6-1): Is bred up and down for the grass and is a candidate to improve after a first-out dud over the synthetic at Gulfstream. Irad will be aboard in the Wednesday nightcap, and any sort of a move forward could be enough in this wide-open turf sprint; #7 NEW ATTITUDE (8-1): Cuts back in distance and adds blinkers first off the claim here, and she may have been compromised by wide trips in each of her first two starts. She ran into a runaway winner first time out, too, and perhaps the most recent effort was a bounce off of that performance; #3 BOLT HOUSE (6-1): Drops in class for Bill Mott, whose numbers with maiden claimers doing that are exceptional. She also adds Lasix, which could prove powerful, and the most recent work downstate hints that she’s moved forward off of a disappointing debut.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $819.50

Kudos to the trainers who took part in Saturday’s fundraiser for the Lustgarten Foundation. It featured horsepeople taking time out of their insanely-busy schedules to sign autographs for fans, with proceeds going to a foundation that aims to advance research pertaining to pancreatic cancer.

The fundraiser was in honor of longtime trainer Dominic Galluscio, who passed away in 2014. However, it could’ve easily been for any number of people whose battles with the disease are all too familiar to so many folks out there.

(We all miss you, Jarboe.)

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: On a lighter note, Victory Hall defied a phenomenon called the Pink Sheet Curse (copyright Nick Kling, all rights reserved), which occurs when all five handicappers in the pick box land on the same horse. The DQ in the third meant a small double win got wiped out (and I found yet another way to run second…), but in total, $55 in post-scratch bets returned $84.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: #11 MIZTERTONIC is an also-eligible in the ninth, but if he runs, I need to play him. I’ll have a $30 win bet on that one, and I’ll also play a cold $10 double starting in the ninth that singles #10 SECURED LENDER in the finale.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Miztertonic, Race 9
Longshot: Woodster, Race 6

R1

Endorse (MTO)
Inesperee
Abundant Love

#2 INESPEREE (6-1): Was eased out of his last race, so you can just draw a line through it. Her two and three-back efforts were both fine, and I think she’ll relish the cutback to a shorter distance in the Sunday opener, where she may be a bit more of a price than she should be; #4 ABUNDANT LOVE (3-1): Also cuts back from a few marathon races and was most recently second here last month. She’s one of several in here that’s had plenty of chances, though, so I probably need more of a price than I’m likely to get; #7 READY FOR CANDY (7/5): Comes in off a long layoff after trying some tough company at Woodbine most of last season. Her back class is considerable, but I do have some doubts. I think her best races came on synthetic, not turf, and it’s not like her speed figures tower over this bunch. She could win, but she could also very much need a race.

R2

Daisy Duke
Moon Cache
Fortuna Mia

#5 DAISY DUKE (8/5): Has had some truly nightmarish trips of late, including last time out, when she nearly overcame a lot of traffic and was beaten just a neck by a next-out winner. In fact, she’s run into next-out winners in each of her last four outings, and I think this field may be a bit weaker; #4 MOON CACHE (5/2): Has proven to be an astute claim for this outfit, as she’s won one listed stakes race and placed in two others. It feels like she may be the main speed in here, and while I think she wants longer than this six-furlong trip, her best is certainly good enough; #1 FORTUNA MIA (7/2): Relished a big drop in class and got her first win in a while last time out. She was claimed out of that race and goes back up the class ladder here, but it’s also possible she got some confidence from that last-out score.

R3

Proud Foot (MTO)
Kairyu
Obstreperous

#3 KAIRYU (2/5): Hasn’t won in more than two years, but she’s been facing stakes foes exclusively since coming to America and gets massive class relief. She was beaten less than a length by Future Is Now last time, and there are no such monsters in this optional claimer; #5 OBSTREPEROUS (4-1): Didn’t run well when last of nine in the Grade 3 Caress, but she was wide that day and raced without Lasix. She gets Lasix back here, and a return to her two-back form would likely get her at least a piece of this one; #6 SOL HOPE (6-1): Didn’t sit her desired trip last time out, when she was 10th of 11 early. She wants to be closer to the pace, and my guess is she shows more tactical speed here first off the claim for Mike Maker.

R4

Valentinian
New Magic
Trident Hit

#1 VALENTINIAN (7/5): Just missed in a stakes-caliber optional claimer at Monmouth last month and ships north for Todd Pletcher. His Monmouth operation is usually his second string, but the grandson of Rachel Alexandra has shown enough talent to be an imposing favorite; #4 NEW MAGIC (3-1): Showed maturity in his debut, when he overcame a terrible start and rallied from last to first. I don’t know what he beat that day in New Jersey, but he certainly has a right to improve with experience and a cleaner trip; #6 TRIDENT HIT (6-1): Exits some salty races for the level at Churchill, ones that featured several horses coming back to win at next asking. Ron Moquett doesn’t ship in much, and this is an astute outfit that merits respect when it shows up.

R5

Three B’s
Trust Issues
Holleman entry

#5 THREE B’S (4-1): Goes back to Linda Rice after a win against weaker foes last time out. He’s 2-for-2 at this 6 1/2-furlong trip, and his only clunker for Rice earlier this year came in a failed turf experiment. He’s doing what he wants to do for a high-percentage outfit, and he likely won’t be favored; #2 TRUST ISSUES (2-1): Ran second at this level a few weeks ago, and he likely wants to be closer to the pace than he was that day. Irad sees fit to ride back when he likely had several options, which inspires some confidence; HOLLEMAN ENTRY (5/2): Both #1 PLAUSIBLE DENILE and #1A ZIPPY MARK could factor in here. The former would benefit from a pace meltdown, while the latter goes second off a layoff for Ken McPeek and sports a recent bullet drill over the Oklahoma track.

R6

Stimulate (MTO)
Teleport
Woodster

#4 TELEPORT (2-1): Is bred up and down to be a very good turf horse and sold for more than $400,000 across the pond last fall. He’s a full brother to a European stakes winner, and his dam is kin to French Group 1 winner Intello, among others; #7 WOODSTER (8-1): Is a half-brother to Andrew Champagne Gambling Hall of Famer Lord Miles, who won the 2023 Wood Memorial at 59-1 (you may have heard me mention this horse before). Half-kidding aside, his bottom-side pedigree also includes a dam that’s a half-sister to champion Caledonia Road and graded stakes winner Officiating, so he could have potential; #3 GUITARIST (8/5): Hammered for $900,000 at Keeneland last year and debuts for Chad Brown, who’s been winning lots of 2-year-old races at this stand. This son of Quality Road boasts a strong pedigree, but if there’s hesitation here, it’s because that pedigree hints he may want dirt, not turf.

R7

Irish Jackson
Spiritual Lady
Jackson’s Dixie

#1 IRISH JACKSON (3-1): Gets a massive jockey switch to Flavien Prat and is a closer in a race with lots of early speed signed on. She was second beaten a neck by the likely favorite two back at Aqueduct, but given the race shape, I think she’s got a big chance to turn the tables; #6 SPIRITUAL LADY (2-1): Pulled off an 11-1 upset last time out in her first start off the claim and will look for her third straight score here. She could win, but she could face more opposition up front, and this barn’s 1-for-20 year to date doesn’t inspire enough confidence to back her at a short price; #7 JACKSON’S DIXIE (5/2): Is already making her 11th start of the calendar year and goes first off the claim for Mike Miceli, a talented horseman with a smaller barn. The rider switch to Dylan Davis is certainly notable, and she’s another that figures to benefit from a fast early pace.

R8

Cy Fair
Snow Face Princess
My Sweetheart

#4 CY FAIR (8/5): Couldn’t have been much more impressive in her debut, when she won by more than three lengths in professional fashion. John Velazquez rides back for George Weaver, and any sort of a step forward would make her strictly the one to beat in the Bolton Landing; #3 SNOW FACE PRINCESS (6-1): Took to the turf with aplomb last time out, when she won by two lengths earlier in the meet. I’m not sure what she beat that day, but it sure seems like the grass moved her up, and these connections merit plenty of respect; #2 MY SWEETHEART (7/2): Won first time out on the turf and didn’t run badly when second in the Schuylerville on Independence Day. Jose Ortiz rides for Mark Casse, and she figures to be prominent early in her return to the lawn.

R9

Miztertonic (AE)
Hey Toby (MTO)
Zapruder

#11 MIZTERTONIC (5-1): Needs a scratch to draw in off the AE list but merits plenty of respect if he gets to run. He had no pace to run at last time, when he was second behind a perfect-trip winner, and there are a lot of speed horses signed on that could set things up for him to come rolling late; #1 ZAPRUDER (8-1): Makes his first start since December, but he’s another that figures to do his best running late. Todd Pletcher knows how to get horses ready to run off of long breaks, and it’s interesting that Irad lands here when he almost certainly had several options; #2 ANNEXPERIENCE (5/2): Capitalized on an ideal trip last time out, when he ran off the screen after being left alone on an uncontested lead. He gets Lasix for the first time here, but he also faces several others that will want to go early, and if form on paper translates to the racetrack, we’ll see how he handles adversity.

R10

Secured Lender
Araucano
Senor Poncho

#10 SECURED LENDER (7/5): Takes a colossal class drop in the Sunday finale and looks very, very imposing. He cuts back to seven furlongs, a distance where he’s done some of his best running, and the cushy outside post should give Flavien Prat plenty of options; #1 ARAUCANO (15-1): Was a good second at this level last time out and is a candidate to move forward in just his third lifetime start. He adds blinkers for this one and should show some tactical speed from the inside draw; #4 SENOR PONCHO (15-1): Was third in the race my second choice exits, and like that rival, he also adds blinkers in this spot. His two-back effort wasn’t bad, either, and his sheet looks far better if you cross out the two failed turf experiments at Gulfstream from earlier this season.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $790.50

Saturday’s seventh race is the type of event that draws genuine excitement from all sorts of fans. It’s one of the 2-year-old maiden races that boasts an array of exciting prospects from top barns, and we may look back on it as a key race down the road.

Consider this: All 10 horses in this field sold at auction. None of them commanded less than $100,000. Four sold for more than $500,000, while four others hammered for more than $250,000. In total, nearly $4.4 million in horse flesh will be in the paddock before the seventh, and if you’re in attendance, you may want to make your way from wherever you’re sitting to the backyard. You never know when you may be seeing something special. 

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: I got too cute. The Grand Slam sequence wound up very chalky, and my $20 post-scratch investment returned just $16.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: My action focuses on another baby race. I thought #1 VICTORY HALL ran well in her debut, and she’s my key to a big day. In addition to a $30 win bet on her, she’s a single in $5 doubles that start in the first with #2 AIRBORNE ELITE, #4 HOUSE UNITED, and #5 SWEETALKINGBOURBON and end in the third with #2 TREATY OBLIGATION, #4 STOLEN BASE, and #6 ALTERNATE REALITY.

TOTAL WAGERED: $60.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Victory Hall, Race 2
Longshot: Stolen Base, Race 3

R1

House United
Airborne Elite
Sweetalkingbourbon

#4 HOUSE UNITED (3-1): Did everything but win last time out, when he had a poor start, traveled wide most of the way, and was beaten just a head. He cuts back to the Wilson chute in the Saturday opener, and Irad Ortiz Jr. sees fit to ride back; #2 AIRBORNE ELITE (9/2): Was second at a similar route at Ellis Park in his first start off the claim for Linda Rice. I think he may be at his best going shorter, but he hits me as the main speed in here and he draws well; #5 SWEETALKINGBOURBON (7/2): Hasn’t fired a bad shot all year and was another that suffered a near-miss last time out, when he was second at this level at Churchill. He may need a bit more pace than he’s likely to get, but his best may be good enough in a competitive lid-lifter.

R2

Victory Hall
Probable Angle
Belloro

#1 VICTORY HALL (5/2): Was a solid second in his debut behind a well-meant runner, and she figures to improve second time out. Her two works since that outing look solid, and she should have every chance to save ground from the rail draw; #2 PROBABLE ANGLE (6-1): Ships up from Penn National and seems to be working very well. That surface is a quirky one, but if the form she’s flashed comes up the highway with her, she could have a chance to win on debut; #6 BELLORO (7/2): Was third in the race my top pick exits and adds blinkers for a barn whose runners tend to improve after an initial start. She does have some ground to make up on the likely favorite, but there’s a lot here that says improvement is logical.

R3

Treaty Obligation
Stolen Base
Alternate Reality

#2 TREATY OBLIGATION (5/2): Broke his maiden out of the chute last summer and takes a significant class drop into straight claiming company. He’s run just twice since February, so it’s safe to assume he’s had his issues, but he got quite good late last year and merits respect on the drop; #4 STOLEN BASE (5-1): Has a sheet that looks far better if you cross out races run over off tracks. He’s 3-for-7 over fast dirt tracks, and while the distance here is a bit of a question mark, he certainly fits on speed figures and may offer some value; #6 ALTERNATE REALITY (7/2): Has had plenty of success at this level in the past and exits a pretty competitive race last month. That day’s runner-up has since come back to win, and while the outside post is a problem, this is one that has shown he’s good enough to contend here.

R4

Nonna Teresa
Cognition
Tennessee Belle

#4 NONNA TERESA (7/2): Debuts for Todd Pletcher after an impressive gate drill and is bred to be a good one. Her dam, Teresa Z, was a multiple Grade 3 winner, and her lineage traces back to third dam My Flag, the dam of champion Storm Flag Flying (and a runner in her own right); #5 COGNITION (4-1): Makes her first start for Chad Brown and fetched $170,000 at auction last summer. Digging into the work tab a bit shows a very impressive gate drill on July 13th, and this barn’s 2-year-olds have been firing all summer long; #6 TENNESSEE BELLE (7/5): Ran in spots in her debut last month and finished second, but I have some reservations about betting her at a short price. I’m not sure what she ran against that day, there are some serious prospects in here, and while experience is valuable, I think her likely price is an underlay.

R5

Valentinian (MTO)
Il Siciliano
Fuerteventura

#5 IL SICILIANO (4-1): Did everything but win last time out, when he lost a photo at a big price at this route. He hasn’t won in a while, but to be fair, he’s run up against some serious horses, and it wasn’t long ago he was fourth in the Grade 3 Pan American behind Far Bridge; #4 FUERTEVENTURA (2-1): Is another that hasn’t found the winner’s circle in a long time, but he improved first off the claim when second in a fast race at this route last month. Kendrick Carmouche rides back, and he’s enjoyed probably the best Saratoga meet of his career to this point; #1 KIGALI (6-1): Stretched out with aplomb last month to get the job done and was claimed out of that race by a sharp outfit. This is a step up in class, to be sure, but it’s also possible he’s finally doing what he’s wanted to do all along.

R6

Bibi Dahl
Keto Drink
Santina

#8 BIBI DAHL (4-1): Debuted running second in stakes company before traveling to Royal Ascot, where she beat half the field home in a 17-horse Group 3 event. That day’s winner and runner-up have both come back to win, and if she’s overcome the jet lag from her intercontinental journey, she hits me as the one to beat; #3 KETO DRINK (5/2): May finally get to run here after a few appearances on AE lists, and she’s a major player. She had trouble in her debut but rallied to be third, and this patient barn tends to move horses forward at second asking; #2 SANTINA (7/2): Debuts for Wesley Ward, which already makes her formidable. She’s been working well both here and at Keeneland, but her bottom-side pedigree is pretty stamina-heavy, and I wonder if she may truly want more ground than she’ll get in this turf sprint.

R7

Hero Declared
Cost Effective
It’s Our Time

#4 HERO DECLARED (5/2): Hammered for $575,000 at auction this year, and word seems to be out on this Whit Beckman trainee. He turned in a fantastic gate drill not long ago, and his productive bottom-side pedigree gives him even more reason to be a runner; #6 COST EFFECTIVE (8-1): Hits me as an overlay at this price given his pedigree. He’s by Into Mischief and out of the very classy mare Lewis Bay, who won graded stakes races in four separate seasons. He’s working well, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he was well-meant; #5 IT’S OUR TIME (9/2): Boasts a strong series of works for Tom Amoss, whose barn has enjoyed plenty of success at this stand. This is far from an easy spot in which to debut, but this $425,000 auction purchase is another one to take a closer look at in what is, for my money, the most interesting race of the program.

R8

Get a Job
Crimson Light
Cicciobello

#3 GET A JOB (7/2): Is 2-for-2 out of the Wilson chute, a route some horses (and handicappers…) don’t particularly care for. His win last time out was in an off-the-turf race, but his sheet looks far better if you toss his two clunkers at Oaklawn. Do that, and he looks very much like the one to beat in here; #8 CRIMSON LIGHT (6-1): Misfired last time out downstate but ran well off the long layoff two back. That leads me to believe the clunker was a bounce, and that we might see a return to form here. The question is, how much does the outside post compromise him?; #4 CICCIOBELLO (9/2): Won a stakes race two back and probably needed his last race, which was his first outing since November. He’s a bit inconsistent, but his best race could absolutely win this, and the rider switch to Ricardo Santana is notable.

R9

Schwarzenegger
Sandal’s Song
Spirit of New York

#1 SCHWARZENEGGER (4-1): Has been entered a few times but will make his debut in the Skidmore, and rumblings are that this $950,000 yearling purchase may have a lot of talent. He’s been working sensationally for Wesley Ward, and the ambitious spotting lines up with those drills; #2 SANDAL’S SONG (2-1): Was a competitive third in the Group 2 Norfolk at Royal Ascot, and that day’s runner-up has come back to win. George Weaver’s horses have been running lights-out in turf sprints all meet, and this one is a legitimate favorite; #8 SPIRIT OF NEW YORK (7/2): Won his debut like a very good horse last month, when he sat back, pounced, and drew away convincingly. There seems to be some speed signed on in here, and if he gets the setup he got in his unveiling, he could come running once again.

R10

Good Cheer
La Cara
Nitrogen

#2 GOOD CHEER (8/5): Was 7-for-7 going into the Grade 1 Acorn, where she didn’t run a jump. However, that race was contested over a very wet, very quirky track. I don’t put much stock into it, she’s worked very well since, and if she’s back to her old self, I think she’s the one to beat in the Grade 1 Alabama; #6 LA CARA (5/2): Led every step of the way in the Acorn and could establish herself as the top filly in the country with another Grade 1 win. She sure looks like the controlling speed; my question is, just how far does she want to go, and is this 1 1/4-mile distance within her scope?; #4 NITROGEN (9/5): Comes back to the dirt after a near-miss in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks and is intriguing given her runaway score in the Wonder Again. Having said that, that was an off-the-turf race two back over that aforementioned quirky, wet surface. Maybe she’s a freak, but I can’t bet her at her likely short price.

R11

Assertiveness
Kid Kreesa
Mo Go

#1 ASSERTIVENESS (2-1): Comes up from Monmouth for Todd Pletcher, which is sometimes a red flag. However, this colt takes a big, big drop in class. He was fifth in a stakes race two back, runs against restricted claimers here, and his best race crushes these; #10 KID KREESA (7/2): Is a known quantity at this point. He’ll go out early and lead them for as long as he can. There’s some other speed in here, but he does get a rider upgrade in this spot and he figures to be the one they’ll have to catch turning for home; #5 MO GO (9/2): Goes back to the grass here, and I think that’s his best surface. He earned the diploma in a turf route at Gulfstream last year, and this is his first two-turn event on the lawn since then.

R12

Vekinda (MTO)
Pay the Juice
Spoken Bluntly

#10 PAY THE JUICE (4-1): Cuts back to a sprint here and seems far more effective going short. He was third at this route last summer in a race that’s aged very, very well, and while the outside post isn’t ideal, he should be rolling late in the nightcap; #1 SPOKEN BLUNTLY (9/2): Seems like the main speed and gets both Kendrick Carmouche and the rail draw, both of which bode well. His wire-to-wire score off the bench last time out was a good one, and it sure seems like he’ll be the one they have to catch; #2 NOT FOR HIRE (3-1): Had an adventurous trip last time out and finished a distant fourth. He wants to be much closer to the pace than he was on that occasion, and he’d move forward considerably with a cleaner trip.