selections

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/17/20)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $980

Handicappers in the Saratoga media may work for different publications and outlets, but we’re the same breed and many of us are friends. Every year brings with it attrition in the ranks due to retirements or budget cuts, and it’s always tough to see someone go, for whatever reason.

Bill Heller was the longtime handicapper at The Daily Gazette. He’s written several books on Saratoga, and he always treated me with respect in my limited dealings with him. I found out Wednesday that he had retired, and I was sad to hear it.

Bill and others like him are a link back to when being the leading handicapper across all media at Saratoga was a special, special thing to everyone involved (to me, it still is). I hope Bill enjoys his retirement, and I hope the handicappers that are left do right by him and how he approached his duties to his craft and his readers.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: On a mess of an opening day card, I made a mess in both the pick box and the bankroll section. Candy Tycoon never had a chance after stumbling badly out of the gate, so I dropped $20.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I usually don’t play Pick Fives, but the late one can be attacked with an economically-friendly ticket, so I’ll fire away. My 50-cent wager starting in the sixth goes as follows: 2,8 with 2,3 with 3,6 with 5 with 1,3,5,6,10,11.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Indian Pride, Race 9
Longshot: Justintimeforwine, Race 5

R1

Prioritize (MTO)
Value Engineering
Bundibunan

#6 VALUE ENGINEERING: Hasn’t run a bad race to this point and came back running off the bench when victorious downstate. The added furlong is a bit of an unknown, but the pedigree hints this shouldn’t be a problem, and a repeat of his last-out effort would make him tough; #5 BUNDIBUNAN: Ran well going long on turf late last year, including a fourth-place finish in a rich stakes race at Kentucky Downs. He may need a livelier pace up front to be at his best, though, as he wants to sit back and make one run; #2 CAN’THELPBELIEVING: Hasn’t run in more than a year and hasn’t won since the 2017 Sky Classic at Woodbine, but has been working well for Graham Motion and may inherit the early lead by default. This isn’t an easy task first off a long layoff, but he could lead them a long way and come away with a piece of it.

R2

Dawn’s Early Light
Brunate
Imperio D

#1 DAWN’S EARLY LIGHT: Looms large in a race without much proven form signed on. His race off the bench downstate was fine, and he’s been working well since shipping up here after that performance; #10 BRUNATE: Settled for second against similar at Belmont after a less-than-ideal start. He’s shown improvement since coming back to the races earlier this summer, and the recent bullet drill looks pretty good; #11 IMPERIO D: Is the bigger price of the two Rudy Rodriguez trainees and was third in the race my second selection exits. He was fourth behind a next-out winner here in his debut last year, and he does have some tactical speed.

R3

The Rock Says
Ghost Game
First Rate

#4 THE ROCK SAYS: Will be asked to know his role in his first start for new trainer Robertino Diodoro, who does excellent work with horses first off the claim. He’s burned a lot of money, but the stretch-out to two turns could help him lay the smack down on this group (if you had “day two” in the “first wrestling reference” pool, you win); #5 GHOST GAME: Has stepped forward in each of his four starts and is protected first off the claim, which I see as a sign of confidence. He’s bred to love two turns and could come running late at a price; #3 FIRST RATE: Ran well in his first start away from Jorge Navarro last month at Gulfstream. He tries two turns on dirt for the first time, but his running style and pedigree says that shouldn’t be too much of an issue.

R4

Persian Queen
Leaveuwithasmile
Pick Up the Fone

#3 PERSIAN QUEEN: Goes back to the barn of Carlos Martin after trying tougher in two races at Churchill. The most recent effort was fine, and the first-out win here last summer indicates that she’ll have no problem with the surface; #2 LEAVEUWITHASMILE: Takes a big drop in class second off the bench for a capable outfit. She got pretty good last fall, winning three of four at Laurel, and she’ll get plenty of support at the window; #4 PICK UP THE FONE: Moved forward for Todd Pletcher last time out when wiring a weaker field at Gulfstream. She figures to be on or near the lead, and when this barn gets a horse on the right track, they tend to stay there.

R5

Too Early (MTO)
Justintimeforwine
Sandro the Great

#8 JUSTINTIMEFORWINE: Has had a lot of chances, but sure looks like the only speed in an otherwise paceless race. Kendrick Carmouche is a talented speed rider, and I think he could go slow early and have plenty left late at a big price; #10 SANDRO THE GREAT: Is bred up and down to go long and turf and didn’t run badly when fifth off the layoff. Going 10 furlongs off the bench isn’t easy, and improvement is certainly logical; #7 SCUTTLEBUZZ: Had every chance last time out when closing into a very fast pace. That he didn’t get up is a red flag, but there’s plenty of pedigree to suggest he’ll go two turns. His dam was stakes-placed going long on the grass, and Jonathan Thomas can win with stretch-outs.

R6

Big Thicket
Coach Villa
Vintage Hollywood

#8 BIG THICKET: Chased a classy runner earlier this month and is wheeled back quickly by Rudy Rodriguez. He’s run well on short rest before and seems to catch a less-imposing group here; #2 COACH VILLA: Likely needed his last-out effort, when he never fired in his first start since February. His form over the winter at Aqueduct, however, was solid, and his late-running style could be a benefit if they go quickly early on; #7 VINTAGE HOLLYWOOD: Hasn’t won since coming east last fall, but has run well against open claimers in the past. He could relish the slight cutback in distance for a smaller barn that must be respected.

R7

Noor Sahara
Passing Out
Blowout

#2 NOOR SAHARA: Is one of four entrants for trainer Chad Brown in this year’s De La Rose and looks like the most imposing runner. Her prior connections saw enough in her to try the Group 1 Prix de Diane Longines, one of the most prestigious races for turf distaffers in Europe, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back; #3 PASSING OUT: Chased next-out Jenny Wiley winner Rushing Fall in the Grade 3 Beaugay downstate and got some black type with a third-place finish. She’s done her best work going two turns, and I think she’ll relish a return to that sort of route; #9 BLOWOUT: Seems like the main speed and is another part of the Chad Brown contingent. She’s been off since October but has back class and could be tough to catch if she’s left alone and ready to run.

R8

Lady Lawyer
Turf War
Lady Worthington

#3 LADY LAWYER: Wouldn’t have been too out of place in the De La Rose and looms large for the tag team of Chad Brown and Joel Rosario. Her U.S. debut last month was solid, and she should sit a perfect stalking trip just off the speed; #6 TURF WAR: Won a listed stakes last year at Belmont, but hasn’t been seen since October. She has a powerful late kick and may be the one they have to hold off late if she’s fully-cranked; #5 LADY WORTHINGTON: Sure looks like the main speed, and Wesley Ward’s track record with speedy turf sprinters is unimpeachable. She hasn’t run since February, but she’s run well fresh in the past and could be ready at a price.

R9

Indian Pride
Risky Mandate
Joy Epifora

#5 INDIAN PRIDE: Cruised home in her 2020 debut last month at Belmont and showed real potential before going to the sidelines last year. She broke her maiden here at first asking last summer by eight lengths, and her usual race would make her a formidable favorite; #2 RISKY MANDATE: May have been best in her return race at Churchill and is another that hasn’t done much wrong. She was third in last year’s Grade 2 Prioress here last summer, and she’s got a win at today’s seven-furlong distance as well; #6 JOY EPIFORA: Wasn’t disgraced in her U.S. debut, when she ran second going a mile in Kentucky. She ran in some of Argentina’s biggest races a year ago and won two Group 1 events, and she’s been flying in several recent works at Keeneland.

R10

Cold Hard Cash (MTO)
K. K. Ichikawa
Frozen Account

#1 K. K. ICHIKAWA: Gets my reluctant top pick in a tough finale. His debut wasn’t bad, and he’s eligible to move forward with a start under his belt and the addition of Lasix; #10 FROZEN ACCOUNT: Merits a look in his first start on the grass given his pedigree. He’s by Central Banker and out of a Malibu Moon mare, which means he has every right to improve with the change in surface; #5 DIANNESIMPAZIBLE: Likely needed his 2020 debut off of a six-month layoff, and trainer Rudy Rodriguez’s horses tend to improve second off of long layoffs. With his route-heavy pedigree, two turns shouldn’t be an issue.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/16/20; OPENING DAY)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

A lot has changed in the last 10 months, and this summer features a far, far different Saratoga meet. However, I’m grateful to be back for another go-round in The Pink Sheet, both in the pick box (where I’ll look for a fifth Pink Sheet title in seven years) and with this bankroll section (where I’ll look to grow an initial $1,000 stake between now at Labor Day). Quick reminder: All plays in this section assume races carded for turf stay there, and early scratches void the action of the horses involved.

All of my stuff will be available on AndrewChampagne.com far in advance. If you have a question or something for me to potentially write about, tweet me at @AndrewChampagne. My DM’s are open, and I respond to almost everything that gets sent in. It’s a tough time for a lot of people (self included; rest in peace, Nana), and I’ll gladly do anything I can to brighten the spirits of my readers.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the ninth race, the Grade 3 Peter Pan. #5 CANDY TYCOON hits me as a square price anywhere close to his 5-1 morning line price. I’ll key him in $3 exactas above and below #3 MODERNIST and #4 CELTIC STRIKER, and play Candy Tycoon to win and place for $4 as well.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Astoria Kitten, Race 7
Longshot: Grudge, Race 10

R1

Guy Caballero
Grit and Glory
Jerome Avenue

#6 GUY CABALLERO: Hasn’t run in a while but drops down the class ladder for aggressive connections. He was third in a Grade 2 just last year, and he’s shown he can run well going two turns; #2 GRIT AND GLORY: May get a solid setup at a bit of a price. There’s a good amount of early speed in here, and he could be in line to pick up the pieces in his second start off the bench; #7 JEROME AVENUE: Makes his first start for new trainer Rob Atras and is another taking a drop in class. He was third going two turns over this oval late last year, and Atras has hit at a 23% clip of late with new acquisitions.

R2

Scanno
Leading West
Magic Mojo

#10 SCANNO: Might provide a bit of value in here given the field size and runners from higher-profile barns. He and rider Javier Castellano may inherit the early lead given a relative lack of early zip, and he might not have to improve much off of a recent third-place effort downstate; #1 LEADING WEST: Drops in for a tag for the first time after running second several times against straight maidens. On paper, he makes sense, but I’m wary of him given the likely race shape, which may not favor his late-running style; #7 MAGIC MOJO: Might be worth another shot after a dud first time out. He didn’t have the best start in that race, and he’s bred to be far better than what he showed in his unveiling.

R3

Glass Ceiling
Palace Avenger
Carrizo

#4 GLASS CEILING: Is a pace play for me in a confounding five-horse event. Unlike many of her rivals, she doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well, and her three wins around one turn are also encouraging; #3 PALACE AVENGER: Came back running when second at Churchill in her 2020 debut. Her 85 Beyer Speed Figure may indicate she’s turned a corner, although she may have opposition up front early on; #1 CARRIZO: Hasn’t won since September of last year, but she does her best running at the Spa. She’s won twice in three local starts, and she could easily outrun her odds.

R4

Valletta
Palace Duchess
Gran Chemin

#5 VALLETTA: Cuts back in distance in her first start for Carlos Martin and gets a nod based on experience. Her most recent workout was very solid, and the presence of Javier Castellano is a plus; #4 PALACE DUCHESS: Was bet down to 1/5 odds in her debut last April at Keeneland, when she ran third and went to the sidelines. Her workouts have been consistent, and Wesley Ward can get horses ready to run as well as anyone; #7 GRAN CHEMIN: Was asked to go two turns in her lone career start to date. That’s never an easy thing to do, and that race produced several stakes-quality horses. Perhaps she needs a run off the bench, but if she’s ready, she’s got a shot at a nice number.

R5

Dark Money
The Caretaker
Thorny Tale

#5 DARK MONEY: Has won five of his last eight starts dating back to last summer and recently cruised to a three-length win over allowance foes downstate. He’s one of only a few in here not exiting the same race on June 19th, and his usual race makes him the one to catch; #8 THE CARETAKER: Won that June 19th event in his first start for Tom Morley and returns to a track where he’s won two of four starts. If they go fast early, he’s one of the ones who stands to benefit, and he should be doing his best running late; #7 THORNY TALE: Beat winners for the first time in his 2020 debut and takes a step up in class here. However, Castellano rides back, and there’s a chance he’s figuring things out as a 4-year-old.

R6

Brees Bayou (MTO)
Ward entry
Propensity

WARD ENTRY: Either entrant can win, but I prefer #2 MR EVERYTHING, who’s been working lights-out downstate and may relish the cutback in distance. #2B GRANDMAS FAVORITE is also a contender, having run several OK turf sprints before an extended hiatus; #9 PROPENSITY: Drops down in class after many opportunities against straight maidens. Perhaps the drop wakes him up, but his best races have come going longer elsewhere, so I’ll try to beat him; #6 NO BAD DAYS: Is worth a look underneath at a big number. He ran into multiple stakes winner Decorated Invader in his lone turf start and may relish a return to the surface against a weaker field.

R7

Astoria Kitten
Summer At The Spa
Ava K’s Girl

#1 ASTORIA KITTEN: Has the speed to utilize the rail to her advantage going long on the inner turf. That could prove dangerous in a race without much other early speed, and she has the talent to lead this field every step of the way; #9 SUMMER AT THE SPA: Is an ultimate hunch play that will benefit if a rival goes with my top pick. She won her debut and was second in her first start off the bench last time out; #6 AVA K’S GIRL: Flew late to be fourth going shorter in her return to the races last month. She won her debut over this surface, and if she can stretch out to two turns, she’ll have a chance to hit the board at a big price.

R8

Beautiful Memories
Hopeful Princess
Queen Arella

#3 BEAUTIFUL MEMORIES: Couldn’t have been much more impressive when romping by 10 lengths in her debut at Churchill Downs. She comes in off of two straight five-furlong bullets at Churchill, and she’ll be a legitimate, short-priced favorite; #8 HOPEFUL PRINCESS: Was shipped to the barn of Steve Asmussen after winning her debut in May in fast fashion. The local work tab is promising, and there’s precocity up and down in her pedigree (by Not This Time, out of a More Than Ready mare); #6 QUEEN ARELLA: Had an adventurous trip in her debut, when she overcame trouble to win by four lengths. This spot is a significant step up for her, but Joel Rosario signs on and her closing at first asking may hint at some potential.

R9

Candy Tycoon
Modernist
Celtic Striker

#5 CANDY TYCOON: Has chased some of the best 3-year-olds in the country of late and most recently ran second behind the classy Rushie at Oaklawn. This spot can be seen as a class drop, and it’s tough to argue with the Pletcher/Velazquez duo in a Saratoga stakes race; #3 MODERNIST: Had nothing left late when seventh in the Grade 1 Belmont, but he might have needed that race off a bit of a freshening. He’s a definite contender if he runs back to his winter/spring form, which included a win in the Grade 2 Risen Star; #4 CELTIC STRIKER: Beat just one rival in the Easy Goer, but may be worth a look. All three of his wins have been in wire-to-wire fashion, and he might well make the lead in here. If he does, he could get brave and hang on for a piece of it.

R10

Doll
Grudge
Shannon’s Girl

#2 DOLL: Gets a reluctant nod in a perplexing Opening Day finale. Her first start for new trainer Brad Cox was solid, as she ran a close-up second when returning to turf. A step forward will make her tough, but she’s run second a lot, and that’s not encouraging; #4 GRUDGE: Drops in for a tag second off the layoff and almost certainly needed her seasonal debut. She won going short on turf at Gulfstream three back, and nothing says she can’t step forward here; #12 SHANNON’S GIRL: Draws a terrible post but is a consistent check-getter that can run on well late. She wasn’t too far behind Doll last time out, and she was an OK second at this route last summer.

Pleasanton: Opening Day Pick Four Analysis (6/19/20)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Friday is Opening Day at Pleasanton, and I’m excited for the 2020 meet to get underway. Pleasanton is one of my favorite places in racing. When the Alameda County Fair is rocking and rolling, this track is as good a place as any to go for a reminder of the charming aspects of the sport we all love and care about. Add in that I’ve become friends with many of the people at CARF over the past few years, and seeing them up and running becomes that much sweeter.

The fair is obviously not happening, and seeing Pleasanton without fans is going to be weird. However, I’m pretty pumped for one of my favorite tracks to be up and running, and I’ll be posting whatever content I can as the meet rolls on through June and July.

We’ll kick things off with a look at the late Pick Four on Opening Day. It’s a seven-race program, so the sequence starts in the fourth. The folks in the racing office did a really nice job putting together the card on short notice, and I think there are opportunities to make some money. Let’s take a look!

RACE #4: The first leg is a maiden claimer for older fillies and mares, and I think the morning line man got this one right. #5 SWEETENER figures to be a heavy favorite in her second start off the layoff. She showed speed against pricier company off the bench at Golden Gate, and anything close to her early-2019 dirt races would likely crush this group.

However, there’s a lot of early speed that could go with her early, so I can’t single her. With the possibility of the race collapsing, I need to have #1 BRITE TAN on my ticket as well. She’s been running at Los Al, which isn’t a surface that favors closers, and she’s got some back form there. Kyle Frey signing on is encouraging, and her best race could be good enough to win this at a price.

RACE #5: This race houses the horse that may be the shortest price of the sequence. He’s not infallible, but I can’t get too cute, as I do think he’s the most likely winner and I’m confident enough to single him.

That’s #5 DOUBLE TIGER, who drops in class off a layoff for trainer Jamey Thomas. Unlike many of these runners, though, he has form on dirt, having never finished worse than second in three starts on the surface. Thomas has had a lot of success this year, and this one has run Beyer Speed Figures that tower over those of much of this group.

Double Tiger is 9/5 on the morning line, and I think he’ll go off shorter than that. If he doesn’t win, I lose, and I imagine many other tickets go up in smoke as well.

RACE #6: Part of the reason I singled Double Tiger is that he looks like the class of the field. The other part is that I don’t have a clue in the sixth, a race without much experience signed on, and one where I can’t have any confidence in the shorter prices.

#6 CAROLINA MIA has run well at Golden Gate, but there’s nothing saying she wants dirt. The same can be said for #1 GET’EM TIGER and #2 SWEET REGARDS, and those three, in some order, will likely be the first three betting choices in this seven-horse field.

I’m hitting the “ALL” button. I wish I could narrow this field down, but between the overall inexperience and the lack of dirt form, I have no thoughts on this race other than that I want maximum coverage. With that said, I’ll buy the race and hope we get a price home.

RACE #7: We finish things off with a claiming event for older fillies and mares. I thought this was another competitive race, and I’m taking a bit of a shot by going against #7 DANIEL THE DREAMER, the morning line favorite. She’s taking a big drop in class, but she’s 0-for-4 on dirt, and those races came at Grants Pass Downs against suspect fields.

My top pick is #4 GIFTY, who hasn’t done a lot wrong to this point. She broke her maiden at second asking, and then found starter allowance company too tough when seventh in her first try against winners. However, she was beaten less than four lengths, and that day’s winner came right back to win again. I wish there was more dirt form on the page, but anything close to the last two efforts would make her pretty tough.

I’ll also use #5 STREUSEL and #6 ZELAIA. The former is a closer in a race full of early speed and should come rolling late, and the latter won on dirt at Turf Paradise earlier this year and is another dropping in class. One other note: If you want to spend a bit more money than me, #2 MAUI MAGIC may be live at a price. I love when runners are protected from the claim off of long layoffs, and she ran reasonably well twice on dirt last summer. She may want longer than this distance and this came up pretty salty for the level, but she may have more of a chance than the odds board will indicate.

R4: 1,5
R5: 5
R6: ALL
R7: 4,5,6

42 Bets, $21

2019 BREEDERS’ CUP: Saturday Analysis and Selections

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

It’s Breeders’ Cup time, which means it may as well be Christmas morning for handicappers. Two days of full fields comprised of some of the fastest horses on the planet, many of which will win or run well at big prices, is pretty much all we can ask for as horseplayers, and I’m really excited to dive in.

I’ve done a lot of handicapping elsewhere for Friday’s card. I’m proud to dissect a lot of 2-year-old races for Oddschecker US, and I wrote up quick summaries of all five Breeders’ Cup races over there. Additionally, I did a few videos for The Daily Racing Form, where I offered Pick Five analysis and a look at my top pick in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.

However, my analysis for each of the Breeders’ Cup races on Saturday is all below. In addition, there’s another race on the undercard I’m very interested in, and I’ll look at that race as well. As I said on Twitter, this is as much work as I’ll do all year long outside of Saratoga season, but I absolutely love it, and I’m grateful to have an audience that enjoys reading my stuff.

Enough talk; let’s get to it!

RACE #3: Grade 2 Twilight Derby

I’ll never understand why Santa Anita opted to run the Twilight Derby at 11:17 am local time, but alas, here we are. This race came up salty for the level given the restricted condition (it’s only for 3-year-olds), but I think the pace scenario sets up perfectly for one of these runners.

#9 KINGLY has a lot of early speed, and that’s not a trait shared by many other runners in this field. He was last seen in the Grade 2 City of Hope Mile, where he was beaten just a neck by older foes after setting a fast pace. He should not have to go nearly as quickly early on in here, and if he gets brave on the front end, I think he’ll be very tough to catch.

Kingly’s 5-1 on the morning line, and I think that’s an overlay. My hope is that he’ll dictate terms early and have plenty left late, and if he gets home, my day will get off to a flying start.

RACE #4: Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

The first Breeders’ Cup race of the day is one that carries plenty of Eclipse Award ramifications. #1 COVFEFE could very well lock up Champion 3-Year-Old Filly honors with a win in this race, and she’s logical. Her efforts going seven furlongs have been incredibly sharp, and given her two victories ahead of this event, it can be argued she’s never been better.

However, the rail draw is certainly a concern. She has speed, but the rivals directly to her outside aren’t slow. If she doesn’t break perfectly, she could be in big trouble, and for that reason, she isn’t my top pick.

That distinction goes to #4 COME DANCING, the race’s likely second choice. She’s won four of her last six starts, and the two losses came to top-quality foes Marley’s Freedom and Midnight Bisou (neither of which shows up here). Unlike several of her foes, she does not need the lead in order to win. She could sit a picture-perfect trip beneath Javier Castellano, and I think she’ll have first run on the tiring pacesetters turning for home.

Underneath those two, #6 BELLAFINA and #9 SPICED PERFECTION both make sense. I’ll also throw in #5 LADY NINJA, who has won five of her last seven starts and would also benefit from a pace meltdown. She’ll be a price, and if you’re looking for a longshot to throw in, I think she’s the one to use.

RACE #5: Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

Much like the race before it, there’s a lot of early speed signed on here. It certainly seems like they’re going to go very, very quickly out of the gate, which should benefit those who do their best running late.

#10 EDDIE HASKELL fits the bill, and he’s my top pick. He loves this route of ground, and while he has a powerful late kick, he’s also got enough tactical speed to not be too far back. Joel Rosario should have plenty left late, and if he can save some ground from a difficult (but not impossible) post, he should be pretty formidable.

The other intriguing closer is #5 STUBBINS, who comes in off a win in the Grade 2 Woodford at Keeneland. He hits me as a 3-year-old hitting his best stride late in the year, and the presence of Flavien Prat is a plus. The faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be, and at his likely price, I absolutely have to use him.

On wider tickets, I’ll also use #6 STORMY LIBERAL, who won this race a season ago but hasn’t found the winner’s circle since. However, the rider switch to John Velazquez is noteworthy, and he’s another who does not need the lead in order to run well. In a race with tons of early zip, that’s valuable, and while he may be past his peak, it’s not like improvement isn’t out of the question.

RACE #6: Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

I’d love to tell you that I can find a reason to go against #5 OMAHA BEACH, but I can’t do it. He had every excuse to run a clunker in his comeback race, and he instead outdueled Shancelot to win the Grade 1 Santa Anita Sprint Championship. We know he can handle two turns, and judging by his recent bullet workout over this surface, he may be coming into this race better than he’s ever been.

I respect #2 IMPROBABLE and #4 MR. MONEY. However, Omaha Beach beat the former earlier this year, and the latter would definitely need to take a step up from a figure standpoint. With all of this in mind, I’ll happily single Omaha Beach in multi-race exotics and spread elsewhere.

RACE #7: Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf

Unfortunately, this race took a hit when Magical didn’t ship in with the rest of the European contingent. After that defection, #2 SISTERCHARLIE towers over the field and seems to be in great position to record her seventh consecutive victory.

The question is, how do we make money when the favorite appears legitimate? I’m going to key her in exactas with several bigger prices. #1 IRIDESSA won a Group 1 at this distance earlier this year, #8 CASTLE LADY may have needed her run in the Grade 1 QE2 at Keeneland, and #12 FANNY LOGAN has won four in a row, gets Lasix for the first time, and is 5-for-5 at this distance.

If Sistercharlie wins, I’ll likely still make a few bucks. However, if she runs second to one of the horses I’ve used, I stand to connect on a nice score.

RACE #8: Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint

If #4 MITOLE wins, he may very well have a case for Horse of the Year honors. A win would give him six victories in seven starts on the season, with four Grade 1 triumphs ranging in distances from six furlongs to a mile. He’s had a great year, and he merits respect, but while I’m using him, he’s not my top pick.

The only time Mitole locked up with #9 IMPERIAL HINT was in the Grade 1 A.G. Vanderbilt. That day, Imperial Hint won by four lengths and set a new track record at Saratoga. Mitole bounced back with a win in the Grade 1 Forego, but Imperial Hint also added a Grade 1 win of his own in the Vosburgh.

I think these two are pretty equal, but Imperial Hint will likely be twice the price. With that in mind, give me that one and the potential for a bigger payoff.

If you’re looking for a longshot to use in the exotics, I’d recommend #7 WHITMORE, who ran very well in his comeback race at Keeneland. He stumbled at the start and was forced to race very wide, but he rallied to be beaten just a half-length. There’s plenty of early speed in here, and if he steps forward off of that performance, he could absolutely hit the board at a big price.

RACE #9: Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Mile

Every year, the Mile seems like a true grass grab bag. This renewal is no exception, and despite the presence of #6 GOT STORMY and #11 UNI, a European runner may very well go favored.

That’s #9 CIRCUS MAXIMUS, a two-time Group 1 winner from the barn of Aidan O’Brien. His form is already top-notch, and he’s getting Lasix for the first time, which can’t be ignored. It’s not an easy race to handicap, and it’ll be worth seeing how he’s warming up prior to the race, but I think his best effort would make him tough to beat.

Got Stormy and Uni could both win, but there are red flags with both runners. The former hung badly in the Woodbine Mile without any apparent excuse, and the latter drew a poor post that could cause her to lose ground. Both could win, I suppose, but I think there’s more money to be made betting against them than betting on them.

In addition to Circus Maximus, I’ll also use #1 SUEDOIS, #2 LUCULLAN, and #13 HEY GAMAN. Suedois didn’t have a great trip when third in the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland and has shown plenty of talent, while Lucullan is in career-best form and Hey Gaman gets the firm ground he prefers while also adding Lasix for the first time.

RACE #10: Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Distaff

Remember the Dirt Mile, where I said I wish I could find a reason to go against Omaha Beach? Substitute #4 MIDNIGHT BISOU, and you have my preview of the Distaff. Simply put, she looks head and shoulders above the rest in here, and she’s my best bet of the entire card.

I’m going to channel former TVG colleague Dave Weaver with my wagering strategy here, which involves an “ice cold” exacta. I’ll use Midnight Bisou on top of #6 WOW CAT, who may be rounding back into form in her fourth start of the season. Wow Cat was the best of the rest behind Midnight Bisou in the Grade 2 Beldame, and she was a fast-closing second in this race a season ago. If they go quickly early on, that will bode well for her chances to hit the board at a big price here.

RACE #11: Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf

Here’s the big question, perhaps the biggest of Breeders’ Cup weekend: Can #9 BRICKS AND MORTAR get a mile and a half? If he can, he’ll likely win and sew up Horse of the Year honors with his fifth Grade 1 win of the year. If he can’t, my inclination is that one of two European runners will capitalize.

#5 ANTHONY VAN DYCK has been pointed to this race for a while, and for good reason. This year’s Epsom Derby winner was most recently third behind Magical in the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes, and if you draw a line through his two-back effort at Ascot over softer going, he hasn’t run a bad race all year. I think he’s matured, and that he’s the horse to beat given his proven ability to get this distance.

Meanwhile, #10 OLD PERSIAN came to North America and rolled to an easy win in the Grade 1 Northern Dancer at Woodbine. Most notably, he won the $6 million Sheema Classic in Dubai earlier this year, and his best race could absolutely be good enough to beat this group. Can he fire that shot if Bricks and Mortar gets the distance? That’s a good question.

RACE #12: Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic

I haven’t been shy about voicing my opinion of this race on Twitter, and I’ll do it again here. Simply put, this race just doesn’t excite me as much as it has in past years. However, that doesn’t mean we can’t make money; quite the opposite, actually, as I’m not sold on a few horses that may get action at the windows.

#10 VINO ROSSO was the victim of what I felt was a horrible DQ in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup. I don’t think #11 CODE OF HONOR was ever getting by, and because of that, the DQ ensured the best horse didn’t win. Vino Rosso gets another crack at that one here, and he gets it going a route of ground he won at earlier this year. He’s worked well coming into this race, and he’s my reluctant top pick.

#8 MCKINZIE may go favored, and #6 ELATE and Code of Honor will take money as well. I could see any of these horses winning, but I’ll be leaning heavier on #5 YOSHIDA. I think there’s enough pace in here to set up for his late kick, and the presence of Hall of Famer Mike Smith is a big, big plus.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (9/2/19, CLOSING DAY)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $571.10

As usual, my last bankroll blurb of the meet thanks a lot of people I’m incredibly grateful for. First of all, thanks very much to editors Stan Hudy and Joe Boyle, who combine to put out three sports sections a day for two papers during track season. If you think that’s easy, try it sometime. Also, thanks to the boys and girls selling The Pink Sheet outside the track, even those who took it upon themselves to not play along with my shtick Thursday and Saturday!

Finally, thanks to you, the reader. Everything I do is done for the purpose of better educating fans and handicappers, as well as potentially making it a bit easier for one to enjoy a day at one of racing’s last true cathedrals. Hopefully, I’ve helped you cash a few tickets this summer. If not, we’ve got one more shot at it!

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: For the second straight day, my key horse in exactas won impressively, but the ticket did not include the second-place finisher. We dropped $40.

MONDAY’S PLAY: I’ll look to go out with a bang in the late double. I’ll use #3 GREEN LIGHT GO and #5 BY YOUR SIDE (race 10, the Grade 1 Hopeful) and #5 FU PEGCHU, #7 EXCHEQUER, and #8 MINE THE COIN (race 11) in $95 doubles, which will exhaust all but $1.10 from my remaining balance.

TOTAL WAGERED: $570

– – – – –

BEST BET: Green Light Go, Race 10
LONGSHOT: Tadeo, Race 6

R1

Deft (MTO)
Doswell
Malthael

#4 DOSWELL: Was beaten a nose by Good Governance, who used that maiden race as a springboard to the Grade 3 Saranac. He wound up second that day, which bodes well for the horse he edged in this spot; #11 MALTHAEL: Has a tendency to find trouble and draws an outside post on the inner turf. However, his best race would make him a contender if Rosario can work out a clean trip; #6 CONVICTION TRADE: Debuts going two turns, which is never easy, but he’s got the pedigree to be a very good turf horse. He’s by Exchange Rate and out of a Street Sense mare, and goes out for a barn that can win with first-time starters.

R2

Mo Diddley
Giant Boo Boo
Battle Station

#4 MO DIDDLEY: Was claimed out of his last race by Joe Sharp, who promptly drops him down in class and returns him to what’s likely his preferred surface. His last win came going one turn on dirt, and he’d also thrive in the event of rain; #1 GIANT BOO BOO: Loves Saratoga and won here last time out. He’s got plenty of speed, which could make the rail an asset, and Javier Castellano hops aboard; #8 BATTLE STATION: Takes a big drop in class for Wesley Ward, but hasn’t won in a while and did most of his best running, from a figures standpoint, on turf. He does have two wins on dirt, but at his likely price, he’s tough to endorse on top.

R3

Baffin Bay
Days of Glory
Dakota’s Dude

#2 BAFFIN BAY: Comes up from Florida for this event and gets a tepid nod in a wide-open claimer. He’s won four of seven starts since being switched to the turf, and the presence of Joel Rosario is noteworthy; #3 DAYS OF GLORY: Was claimed by Steve Asmussen earlier in the meet and ran reasonable well in his second start off the layoff. Asmussen can move horses up, and he’ll likely be running well late; #6 DAKOTA’S DUDE: Gets a big rider switch to Jose Lezcano and topped similar company two back at Belmont. He didn’t have a great trip last time out, and he may be a slightly-inflated price based off of that effort.

R4

Ekhtibaar
Rodriguez entry
Heavy Roller

#4 EKHTIBAAR: Has won five of his 10 dirt starts and comes back to this surface while also dropping in class. He’s also 4-for-5 over a wet track, so he’s even more of a threat in the event of closing-day rain; RODRIGUEZ ENTRY: Both #1 CURLIN ROAD and #1A CANDY PROMISES are live, although only one will likely go. I slightly prefer the latter, who won two in a row before just missing at this route in July; #7 HEAVY ROLLER: Didn’t show much last time out, but was claimed by Linda Rice and has some back class. It wasn’t long ago he was 7/2 in a $350,000 race at Oaklawn, and he’s a contender if he finds that form for a high-percentage barn.

R5

Super Silver (MTO)
Zap Daddy
Labeq

#3 ZAP DADDY: Hasn’t won in a while, but goes to the barn of Jason Servis, which can wake a horse up as well as any claim in the game. He’s been competitive against similar foes in the past and merits respect; #5 LABEQ: Seems to be figuring things out as a 4-year-old. He was second behind a horse that’s since added two more wins last time out, and he comes in off of a bullet drill; #1 SNAP HOOK: Won two in a row before settling for second behind a runaway winner here last month. Jose Ortiz gets off, but trainer Eddie Kenneally has seven top-two finishes in 13 Saratoga starts as of this writing.

R6

Gouverneur Morris
Tadeo
Maximiliano

#8 GOUVERNEUR MORRIS: Hammered for $600,000 earlier this year and has worked like a good one for trainer Todd Pletcher. First-call rider John Velazquez will be aboard this son of hot young sire Constitution; #7 TADEO: Is by Sky Mesa, which gives him a right to be precocious, and his most recent gate drill was solid. His trainer’s horses sometimes need a race, but this one has a big chance to outrun his odds; #1 MAXIMILIANO: Fetched $425,000 at auction last September despite a modest female pedigree. Wesley Ward is as good as anyone with debuting runners, but with all the recent turf drills, why is this one debuting on dirt?

R7

Rhode Island
Danny California
Saratoga Colonel

#5 RHODE ISLAND: Was a good second against non-winners of two last time out and drops in claiming price here. A repeat effort will make him tough, and he’s a very logical favorite; #2 DANNY CALIFORNIA: Hasn’t won in 18 months, but was competitive at this level two back before not breaking well last time out. Additionally, he’s got some dirt form, which could come in handy if this race is moved to the main track; #12 SARATOGA COLONEL: Is another that hasn’t found the winner’s circle in a while, but he adds blinkers for George Weaver and attracts Jose Ortiz. It’s a tall task to win from out there, but he’s run well over this turf course in the past.

R8

Hay Field
Miss Lily B
Newport Breeze

#7 HAY FIELD: Goes to Jason Servis after running second at this level earlier in the meet. She’s got tons of back form, has 14 top-two finishes in 23 career starts, and merits respect; #5 MISS LILY B: Has done very little wrong in nine lifetime outings at Finger Lakes, where she’s won five times and finished second four times. Jose Ortiz rides for a live barn that rarely ships horses without a chance; #9 NEWPORT BREEZE: Hasn’t run since October, but beat a number of today’s rivals in that race and has worked fairly well leading up to this race. Weaver can win with horses off of long layoffs, and she was second in a stakes race here two summers ago.

R9

Sacred Life
March to the Arch
Qurbaan

#6 SACRED LIFE: Nearly won his U.S. debut, which came in the Lure last month. He’s since fired a pair of bullet workouts and should get some pace to run at in this Grade 2 event; #1 MARCH TO THE ARCH: Chased Got Stormy when fourth in the Grade 1 Fourstardave, and this certainly seems like a softer spot. A mile is probably a hair shorter than he wants to go, so he should appreciate the extra sixteenth he gets here; #3 QURBAAN: Won this race last year but hasn’t won since despite some good efforts against solid competition. He was third in the Forbidden Apple earlier this meet and is another that would benefit from a hot pace.

R10

Green Light Go
By Your Side
Gozilla

#3 GREEN LIGHT GO: Sprinted clear late in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special and comes into the Grade 1 Hopeful off of a recent bullet drill. All indications are that he’s fully-cranked for this event; #5 BY YOUR SIDE: Has shown maturity in two prior victories, one of which was the Grade 3 Sanford. His pedigree says the added distance won’t be a problem, and he could sit an ideal stalking trip; #4 GOZILLA: Capitalized on a perfect trip in his debut, when he scored by nearly five lengths and earned an 84 Beyer Speed Figure. Of the recent maiden winners, he hits me as the one with the biggest shot, and he’ll likely be bet accordingly.

R11

Mine the Coin
Exchequer
Fu Pegchu

#8 MINE THE COIN: Was second behind a next-out winner in his first start off a long layoff and was claimed by a high-percentage outfit. Improvement is logical at second asking, and he looms large in the 2019 finale; #7 EXCHEQUER: Was third in that race and would benefit from a lively early pace. Irad Ortiz, Jr., stays aboard, and one would assume he had some options; #5 FU PEGCHU: Debuts off of a bullet workout for Wesley Ward and may not have to be much to pick up a check here. Ward’s one of the best with debuting runners, and this is not exactly the toughest spot.