Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/30/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,274.20

There are so many things I would’ve rather written about than this, but here goes: Twice during Wednesday’s Pick Six sequence, horses scratched with roughly 10 minutes to post. Bettors who did not mark alternates on paper tickets (mostly everyone, since ADW’s do not have spots for alternates) were transitioned to the post-time favorites, who did not win. In a sequence with a $2 million pool, many people and groups who invested lots of that money got the short end of the stick.

Simply put, there has to be a better way to do this. It’s 2018, and protecting the betting public must be among the top priorities of any racing establishment. There are certainly better options that are technologically possible, and it’s up to the racing world to put them into place. Whether that’s reconfiguring data to allow ADW players to mark alternates, refunding invalid combinations, or implementing some other solution, people in power have a duty to protect those that keep the game going. It’s my hope that those people live up to it and bring about positive change.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Somelikeithotbrown ran well in the With Anticipation, but was second behind Opry, who I did not use in exactas. After scratches, we dropped $24.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: My wagers come in the third, where I think #5 RADIANT BEAUTY could sit a dream trip on or near a very slow early pace. I’ll keep it simple and play a $30 win ticket in hopes that she goes off at or near her 9/2 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Mintd, Race 9
Longshot: Risp, Race 7

R1

Satin Sheets
My Won Love
Sciacca entry

#3 SATIN SHEETS: Is a consistent sort that ran a good second in her first start after being claimed by Gary Gullo. That race came at this level and seems like a fairly strong one; #6 MY WON LOVE: Was third in the same race my top pick exits and would benefit from an early speed duel. She’s hit the board in all but one of her seven outings this season; SCIACCA ENTRY: I prefer #1A SCRIPTED, who drops back down in class and has run a few OK races on dirt in the past. She may not need to improve much off of that form to be competitive here.

R2

Illudere (MTO)
Brown entry
End of Spirits

BROWN ENTRY: #1 FRONTIER MARKET could win, but #1A STRATEGIC OUTLOOK intrigues me most. He was a good second in his debut downstate, and it’s tough to make a first start going long like he did; #10 END OF SPIRITS: May have gone a bit too short last time out and stretches back out in distance in this spot. He was second in his lone two-turn effort to date and has shown a solid amount of tactical speed; #11 ARGONNE: Was DQ’d after crossing the wire first going longer at Belmont. He’ll likely take money today, but that race hasn’t come back the strongest and he’ll need to work out a trip from the far outside post. DIRT SELECTIONS: ILLUDERE, RAISING THE FLAG, RUCKSACK.

R3

Radiant Beauty
Fast Track Kathern
Bramble Queen

#5 RADIANT BEAUTY: Led every step of the way earlier in the meet and could very well get an easy lead once again in this spot. There isn’t a lot of other early speed in this race, and she could be tough to run down; #3 FAST TRACK KATHERN: Has won two of her last three starts and was much the best here earlier in the meet. That came against much weaker opposition, but when she wins, she wins big; #4 BRAMBLE QUEEN: Ships in from Arlington Park after defeating state-breds there earlier this month. She’s beaten open company many times before, and she’s tried stakes foes on several occasions.

R4

Stoney Bennett
Devine Entry
What a Catch

#6 STONEY BENNETT: Draws a cushy outside post and figures to be the main speed in this spot. He romped in the slop last month and will be dangerous if left alone on the front end; #5 DEVINE ENTRY: May have needed his last-out effort at Laurel Park, where he tired a bit late. He could take a step forward second off the bench for a barn that’s gotten rolling late in the meet; #1 WHAT A CATCH: Hasn’t won in a while, but ran a decent second a few weeks ago after missing the break. The rail draw isn’t ideal, but these connections merit respect.

R5

Quietly Quick
Andretta
Truly Courageous

#13 QUIETLY QUICK: Comes back to turf, drops in class and cuts back in distance to a route she may have wanted all along given her pedigree. She needs a scratch to draw in, but I think she’ll be tough if she does; #14 ANDRETTA: Just missed downstate in her first start at this level, and like my top selection, needs some luck to run here. Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride back, and the versatility she’s shown is a big help; #9 TRULY COURAGEOUS: Seems like the main speed in this race and was second at this level and route last time out. This isn’t the strongest race for the level (especially if the AE’s don’t draw in), and she could be tough to run down if she gets away early.

R6

Bad Student (MTO)
Sycamore Lane
Neoclassic

#7 SYCAMORE LANE: Takes a big drop in class to run here after knocking heads with some top turf runners earlier this season. The winners of each of his last two races are both Grade 1 winners, and these are much shallower waters; #12 NEOCLASSIC: Has won two of his last three starts and was claimed after the most recent victory by a barn that doesn’t fill out many claim slips. The post position is a problem, but he’s certainly a contender on his best day; #9 HIEROGLYPHICS: Was claimed by Linda Rice following a disappointing performance against much better foes. Rice can win with droppers first off the claim, but take note: Per DRF Formulator, while she’s 6 for 13 over the past five years with similar stock, all six winners were sent off at odds of even-money or lower. DIRT SELECTIONS: BAD STUDENT, HARDLY A SECRET, POSHSKY.

R7

True Gold
Risp
Quick Charge

#3 TRUE GOLD: Has been working steadily ahead of his debut, and he’s bred to be a good one. He’s a half-brother to Gold for the King, a very sharp sprinter, and Charlton Baker means business when he enlists Joel Rosario; #9 RISP: Fetched $275,000 at auction and has an impressive series of works ahead of her debut. It’s been a long summer for this barn, one that doesn’t usually win with first-time starters, but this one may be well-meant at a price; #12 QUICK CHARGE: Needs a few scratches to draw in, but must be used in some capacity if he does. He’s a half to seven winners, including a few that won first time out, and the work tab looks sharp.

R8

Stonefactor
Hannah’s Smile
Generazio entry

#12 STONEFACTOR: Returns to turf after a strong second in a race rained off the lawn earlier this month. Aggressive rider Kendrick Carmouche will likely send from the gate, and she seems to be the one they’ll have to catch; #13 HANNAH’S SMILE: Will almost certainly be favored if she draws in off the AE list. She’s shown a strong closing kick, and a repeat of her last-out effort (a second at this level at Belmont Park) would make her formidable; GENERAZIO ENTRY: I prefer #1 LULU’S POM POM, who graduated two back and comes back to the turf. She’s run well at this route in the past and could show some zip out of the gate.

R9

Mintd
Guacamole (MTO)
Miss Technicality

#7 MINTD: Gets Lasix in her first start since coming to America and certainly merits respect. She was second in a stakes race before coming overseas, and her pedigree suggests that two turns won’t be a problem; #4 MISS TECHNICALITY: Won at first asking and did so while rating off of a slow early pace. The third-place finisher has since come back to win, and Rosario riding back is a plus; #9 VARENKA: Almost certainly needed her debut, when she was a one-paced third at Laurel Park. She’s bred up and down to go long, and these connections spot her ambitiously when she’s still eligible for maiden races.

R10

Suas
Dark Ops
Baker entry

#7 SUAS: Adds blinkers after veering out at the start of his most recent race. His two races at Belmont were solid, and he seems like the horse to beat, especially if he gets a cleaner trip this time around; #2 DARK OPS: Makes his first start since November and is working like he’s ready to run. The inside draw isn’t the best, but he could be sitting on a strong effort at a bit of a price; BAKER ENTRY: #1A READY TO ESCAPE seems like the more well-meant part of the entry. He’s been gelded since running second at this level in April, and he may not need to improve much off of that race to win here.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/29/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,298.20

This week’s edition of “The Dark Day Files” went live late Monday night and chronicled what I took away from a day trip to Lake Tahoe. I’d never been, but a trip there gave me a sense of perspective I didn’t really have before, in a number of different ways.

The write-up is online here, and a link’s also available on my Twitter page (@AndrewChampagne). As a reminder, I read everything that comes in through my site’s “contact” function. If you’ve got something to get off your chest, now’s the time to do so, since we’re less than a week from closing day!

MONDAY’S RESULTS: As I expected, Dr. Shane was prominent early on in the sixth, but he couldn’t hold off the closers in the race. We dropped $28. Sorry, Dan!

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: It’s tough for 2-year-olds to go two turns. It’s even tougher when the track running the race gets the distance of said race wrong and adds a sixteenth of a mile to the journey. That said, #7 SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN was incredibly impressive in his last-out victory, and I think he’s the one to beat in the Grade 3 With Anticipation. I’ll play $6 exactas that use him above #1 HENLEY’S JOY, #5 SEANOW, and #9 SWAMP RAT, and $3 saver exactas that use him below that trio. Finally, I’ll play $2 doubles starting in that race that single Somelikeithotbrown and end with longshots #5 JIMMY JAZZ, #10 WHISKEY RUN, and #11 MILARDO in the finale, a race where anything could happen.

TOTAL WAGERED: $33

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Brown entry, Race 4
Longshot: Milardo, Race 10

R1

Dark Gemini
Dancin in the Rain
Last Shani

#3 DARK GEMINI: Always seems to fire and looms large in here following a second-place finish against similar earlier in the meet. He may benefit from the added distance he gets in this spot; #6 DANCIN IN THE RAIN: Put forth a career-best effort in graduating last time out at Monmouth. He was loose on the lead that day and seems like the main speed in here; #4 LAST SHANI: Goes out for Jonathan Sheppard, who must always be respected in these spots. He won two back and could sit a stalking trip.

R2

Brooklyn Gerty
Salt Pond
Jordy’s Ready

#3 BROOKLYN GERTY: Showed speed last time out in her first start since May of 2017, but faded to fourth as the 6/5 favorite. She may have needed that race, though, and this certainly seems like a softer spot; #6 SALT POND: Took a step forward last time out when second at this level over a muddy track. Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride back; #5 JORDY’S READY: Has run reasonably well in three dirt tries at this level and gets a big rider switch to Luis Saez. Phil Serpe has sent out several horses that have won at prices at this meet, and he can’t be ignored.

R3

A Bit of Mischief
Paddydunalot
No Deal

#5 A BIT OF MISCHIEF: Gets my top selection partially based on being a first-time starter in a race without much proven form. In addition, she’s bred to be a solid turf sprinter, and this barn has had plenty of success with similar stock; #11 PADDYDUNALOT: May have needed the last-out effort, which doubled as her first race in more than two months. She gets back to a sprint distance and drops further down the ladder for a barn whose horses are firing at a solid clip; #3 NO DEAL: Came from way back in her first start at this level and route to be beaten just a length. The 0 for 11 career mark isn’t ideal, but a repeat of the most recent effort could get the job done.

R4

Brown entry
Shortlist
Slewacandy

BROWN ENTRY: Both #1 PROGNOSTICATION and #1A FINANCIAL SYSTEM could win this race. The former has won two in a row and came back running off a long layoff, while the latter is 2 for 2 and has worked his way up the class ladder; #6 SHORTLIST: Stepped forward in his first start for a new barn with a close-up second earlier this month. Luis Saez rides back, and he’d benefit from an early speed duel given his late-running style; #9 SLEWACANDY: Was left alone on the front end last time out and made his rivals pay, winning by more than nine lengths. This is a significant step up, but Velazquez rides back, and a similar trip isn’t impossible.

R5

More Mischief
Chillinwithfriends
Midnitesalright

#3 MORE MISCHIEF: Dueled early in her debut, which came over a sloppy track she may not have appreciated. Her two works since that race have been sharp, and of the ones that have run before, she seems like the one with the most zip out of the gate; #6 CHILLINWITHFRIENDS: Had an adventurous trip in her debut, but still salvaged a third-place finish. That day’s runner-up has since come back to win, and she may have gotten a lot out of that race; #10 MIDNITESALRIGHT: Ran third in a stakes race last time out and draws a cushy outside post here. A repeat of that race puts her in the mix, although she may have been aided by the wet track she caught.

R6

Sensible Myth
Englehart entry
Tres Charmant

#8 SENSIBLE MYTH: Drops in for a tag for the first time after trying stakes foes at Laurel Park. She may not have liked the Laurel turf course, and a repeat of her efforts two or three back would make her very tough; ENGLEHART ENTRY: #1A JAZZY JUDER almost certainly needed her last race, which came off a 10-month layoff. That day’s winner has since won again, and this one’s worked well of late on the training track; #4 TRES CHARMANT: Returns to the grass and to this route of ground, which brought this filly her lone win to date last summer. Some horses simply relish this trip, and this barn has done great work with turf sprinters of late.

R7

Fair Regis
Y’all Wicked
Out of Orbit

#4 FAIR REGIS: Was a solid second against similar foes earlier in the meet and always seems to fire. She’s yet to run a bad race this year, and her usual effort would put her right there; #2 Y’ALL WICKED: Took a huge step forward with a wire-to-wire score last time out at Finger Lakes that doubled as her second win in a row. This is certainly a class test, but when this barn gets sprinters on the right track, they tend to stay there; #3 OUT OF ORBIT: Has run well twice at this level this meet and comes back for another try. The last-out winner ran well in a stakes race last week, and she could improve cutting back in distance.

R8

Aveenu Malcainu
Summer Bourbon
The Caretaker

#9 AVEENU MALCAINU: Won twice at last year’s Saratoga meet and has flashed potential at times during his career. The blinkers come off after a failed experiment last time out, and he draws well in this large field; #6 SUMMER BOURBON: Hasn’t won in a while but figures to benefit from this race’s likely pace scenario. The faster they go early, the better this one’s chances figure to be; #4 THE CARETAKER: Has won two in a row after a long drought and could be figuring things out. His victory earlier in the meet was sharp, and it helps that he doesn’t need the lead in order to run well.

R9

Somelikeithotbrown
Seanow
Swamp Rat

#7 SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN: Won the infamous race contested at the wrong distance earlier in the meet and did so looking like a serious, serious turf runner. A repeat of that effort could make him formidable in an intriguing renewal of the Grade 3 With Anticipation; #5 SEANOW: Wired the field last time out at this route and is bred to be a strong router. He may not get a similar trip, but there’s also a chance he’s improving and doesn’t need a perfect journey in order to contend; #9 SWAMP RAT: Is wheeled back fairly quickly after finishing second going shorter in the Skidmore. He’s shown a big closing kick, but there are serious distance questions on the stretch-out to two turns.

R10

Milardo
Jimmy Jazz
Whiskey Run

#11 MILARDO: Is a reluctant top pick in a race where I would advise using as many runners as you can afford. He makes his first start for this barn after missing the break in his debut at Arlington, and I’m gambling he wants this distance; #5 JIMMY JAZZ: Has been one-paced in two career starts to date, but is a recent gelding and gets a rider switch to Joe Bravo. Two turns could be right up his alley given the distance-heavy pedigree; #10 WHISKEY RUN: Has shown some speed going shorter, and while the pedigree doesn’t say distance, there’s a chance Luis Saez boots him to an easy lead and plays “catch me if you can.” In a confusing race without much proven form, that trip may be enough.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/27/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,326.20

It’s hard to believe, but after the conclusion of Monday’s card, we’ll only have six days of racing left at Saratoga before everyone packs up and heads back to Belmont. Part of the joy of Saratoga is its nature as a boutique meet, and it’s why serious racing fans are not at all crazy about the prospect of extending the Spa schedule even further. Having said that, it’s tough to see the meet wind down, especially given the weather that battered upstate New York for most of it.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: I had the right idea going against Parauari, but picked the wrong middle-priced horse. Zorzor never fired, so we dropped $30.

MONDAY’S PLAY: My action focuses on the sixth race. With speed as good as it’s been on turf lately, I need to key #4 DR. SHANE, who’s owned by fellow Pink Sheet handicapper Dan Feiss (though I like Dan, my feelings about the horse are based on his early zip, not his owner!). I’ll put $5 on him to win and place, and also key him in $3 exactas above and below #1 NEW YORK SONG, #3 STOLEN PISTOL, and #6 BAM BAM BLU.

TOTAL WAGERED: $28

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Klaravich entry, Race 3
Longshot: Rose’s Vision, Race 8

R1

Woodbury
Just Right
Red Zinger

#5 WOODBURY: Was second behind a next-out stakes winner in the slop last month. I’m taking a stance that the race he comes out of is stronger than the one the other top contenders in here exit; #1 JUST RIGHT: Took a step forward when second last time out after pressing a fast pace. He’s got enough speed to establish inside position for formidable connections; #3 RED ZINGER: Was a nose behind my second selection last time out and was a bit one-paced that day. He ran like a horse that wants more ground, and he gets an extra furlong in this event.

R2

Alkhaatam (MTO)
Sargeant Drive
Midnight Tea Time

#5 SARGEANT DRIVE: Was beaten just a length going a mile and a quarter last time out and is bred up and down for the even-longer journey he’ll travel here. He’s by Tapit and out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, and he looms large; #9 MIDNIGHT TEA TIME: Has run a few OK races going longer and runs for new trainer Joe Sharp, who’s enjoyed a solid meet. He may need some pace, but his best effort could win this; #4 WINTER UNION: Has improved since going to the turf and has a pedigree that implies he’ll get this distance. DIRT SELECTIONS: ALKHAATAM, CHATEAU, SARGEANT DRIVE.

R3

Klaravich entry
Mambo Dancer
Big Mischief

KLARAVICH ENTRY: #1 SUPERCOMMITTEE and #1A MERGER ARBITRAGE could both win this. The former ran well in a similar race earlier in the meet, while the latter drops down coming off the bench for Chad Brown; #4 MAMBO DANCER: Was rated far off the pace last time out but made up some ground before running out of gas. She could improve if she’s a bit more forwardly-placed; #2 BIG MISCHIEF: Debuted running third at Monmouth Park on dirt, but has a pedigree that hints she could be a turf horse. She could improve at second asking for the top trainer and jockey at the meet.

R4

Weekend Hideaway
Eye Luv Lulu
Celtic Chaos

#1 WEEKEND HIDEAWAY: Loves Saratoga and won a state-bred stakes race earlier in the meet over several of these foes. He’s got plenty of speed and boasts a big recent workout over this strip; #2 EYE LUV LULU: Has plenty of early speed and figures to be the main threat to my top pick. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because of his 0 for 5 record in upstate New York; #4 CELTIC CHAOS: Would certainly benefit from a speed duel should one arise, but he seems to have regressed from his 2017 form. Still, given the pace scenario, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him run on late for a piece of it.

R5

Mobridge
Vincento
DiPrima entry

#2 MOBRIDGE: Has had lots of success at this level and makes his first start for new trainer Danny Gargan. He’s never finished off the board in three local starts and is reunited with Jose Lezcano, who piloted him to his two scores last year; #3 VINCENTO: Was run down in an off-the-turf event two weeks ago and returns to his preferred surface. He beat my top pick two back at Belmont and could conceivably do so again in what hit me as a two-horse race; DIPRIMA ENTRY: I prefer #1A PECULIAR SENSATION, who has plenty of early speed and topped allowance foes two back at Belmont. The inner turf can be very kind to horses with zip, and he’ll be a price.

R6

Dr. Shane
Bam Bam Blu
New York Song

#4 DR. SHANE: Comes back to his preferred surface and should put his early speed on display. This isn’t an easy spot, but aggressive rider Carmouche should get him involved early (good luck to owner/fellow Pink Sheet handicapper Dan Feiss!); #6 BAM BAM BLU: Made it two in a row in his turf debut last time out for a very strong barn. He has tactical speed but doesn’t necessarily need the lead to run well, which is a plus; #1 NEW YORK SONG: Was second in a tough event at this route last month. The rail isn’t ideal for his running style, but it’s not impossible for him to work out a trip and come running late.

R7

Riff Raff
Sal the Turtle
Summer Bourbon

#5 RIFF RAFF: Was an impressive winner last time out and was claimed out of that event by George Weaver, who doesn’t claim many runners. This is a tough race for the level, but he could be sitting on a big effort; #3 SAL THE TURTLE: Took a big leap forward last time out, when he romped over much weaker foes and earned a 98 Beyer Speed Figure. He had a perfect trip that day, but there’s also a chance he’s returned to his early-2017 form; #1 SUMMER BOURBON: Hasn’t won in a while but has a big recent work and adds blinkers today. It’s odd that he’s never run with them before, and they could get him more involved early on.

R8

Rose’s Vision
Prioritize
Combatant

#5 ROSE’S VISION: Is 2 for 2 going two turns on turf, and that’s the route he gets here. He could sit a stalking trip off of several horses that need the lead, and that seems like exactly what he wants; #10 PRIORITIZE: Rallied to beat optional claiming foes earlier in the meet and will get plenty of speed in front of him. I’m not crazy about the post, but he could still be getting better given his relative lack of experience; #3 COMBATANT: Has been running against stakes foes to this point in the season and should relish the class relief. His plodding style may not be ideal for the inner turf, but with a fast pace almost certainly assured, he could clunk up for a piece of it.

R9

Corey Scores
Surge of Pride
Short Pour

#12 COREY SCORES: Needs some luck to draw in off the AE list, but will be tough if she gets to run. She debuted with a third-place finish in a live race that’s already produced a next-out winner; #4 SURGE OF PRIDE: Debuts for Linda Rice, who can certainly win with turf sprinters. She’s a daughter of Kantharos, whose offspring often have an affinity for the grass; #6 SHORT POUR: Is bred up and down for turf and debuts for a trainer that’s had a lot of success with firsters this year. Most of it has been with dirt horses, but this one seems well-meant.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/26/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,356.20

A lot of us are very quick to vilify stewards when it appears they get decisions wrong. I think it’s fair to point out when they get things right, especially on big stages.

This was the case in Saturday’s Grade 1 Personal Ensign, where Abel Tasman and Elate made contact in mid-stretch. Social media was split on the final ruling of “no change,” but I thought this was the right call. Abel Tasman did come out, but Elate also came in a bit, and it sure seemed (judging by the head-on) that the eventual winner got the worst of the contact. Either way, it was a fantastic race between two top-notch 4-year-olds, and they’re likely to face off again in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff later this year.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: I wanted to get some value out of Way Early in the second race, and I did that. Despite that one prevailing at even money, the $6 exacta returned $150 (thanks to longshot Appealing Briefs running second), and we also got a few bucks out of a consolation double payoff when Silver Dust scratched at the gate. In total, the $32 post-scratch investment returned a tidy $159.75.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to take a stand against the likely favorite in the third race, as I can’t endorse #4 PARAUARI at short odds given his two duds downstate. I much prefer likely second choice #3 ZORZOR, and I’ll keep things simple with a $30 win bet on that one.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Enliven, Race 5
Longshot: Iron Mast, Race 10

R1

Can’tweallgetalong
Espresso Caliente
Flatexcel

#5 CAN’TWEALLGETALONG: Rallied for third in his first start against winners and could benefit from the likely race shape in this spot. There’s a lot of early speed signed on, and this one’s usual race could leave him in position to capitalize on that; #8 ESPRESSO CALIENTE: Hasn’t won in a while, but drops significantly for this race and may sit a perfect stalking trip from his outside post. Both factors could be enough to wake him up; #2 FLATEXCEL: Went too fast early on last time out and faded badly late. He cuts back in distance and may be the fastest of this bunch out of the gate.

R2

Black Dynamite
Speedy Solution
Miss Rombauer

#12 BLACK DYNAMITE: Merits a long look if she draws in off the AE list. She’s by top turf sire More Than Ready and is a half to Grade 1 winner Killer Graces, who was very precocious; #4 SPEEDY SOLUTION: Ran like a filly that wants to go long in her debut, where she was beaten less than two lengths despite a rough trip. Ward’s numbers with horses stretching out aren’t great, but improvement is logical at second asking; #8 MISS ROMBAUER: Fetched $375,000 at auction earlier this year and looms large for powerhouse connections. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because it’s not easy to debut going two turns and there are no five-furlong works on the tab.

R3

Zorzor
Parauari
Acoustic

#3 ZORZOR: Drops way down in class for this event, and his best race would make him very tough to beat. He topped allowance foes two back at Churchill Downs, and his flexibility is a big plus; #4 PARAUARI: Is another dropping down in class, and he does so for aggressive connections after a pair of misfires downstate. He hasn’t done much running since coming to the U.S., though, and there won’t be much value to speak of; #1 ACOUSTIC: Hasn’t won in a while, but did take a step forward last time out in his first start for Jason Servis. He was beaten just a half-length that day at this level, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back.

R4

Maho Bay
Curiousncuriouser
Nocturnal Mission

#7 MAHO BAY: Was a good second in her local debut last time out and has worked well since then. That was a fast race, and a repeat performance would make her formidable (especially given the cushy outside draw); #3 CURIOUSNCURIOUSER: Missed the break in that race, but romped two back at Belmont in her first start for Chris Englehart. A cleaner break here would make her a contender; #1 NOCTURNAL MISSION: Hasn’t won since her debut in February of 2017, but her local debut wasn’t bad and Javier Castellano sees fit to ride back in this spot.

R5

Enliven
Vomba (2nd dam G1W Cash Run)
Angelia

#8 ENLIVEN: Is out of the Grade 1-winning mare It’s Tricky, which makes her a half to multiple graded stakes-winner Enticed. She’s worked well, and Joe Bravo taking the call could signal that it’s go time; #4 VOMBA: Makes her debut for an outfit that’s very sharp with first-time starters. She’s by all-world sire Candy Ride, and her female family includes second dam Cash Run, who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies; #3 ANGELIA: Will almost certainly take money based on the Pletcher/Velazquez connections. Her works are OK, and she’s bred to be a runner, but it’s been a very quiet summer for this barn by its lofty standards.

R6

Lunaire
Dr. Edgar
Holiday Bonus

#9 LUNAIRE: Hasn’t won in a while, but could get the benefit of a race with plenty of early speed drawn to his inside. The faster they go early, the better this one’s chances figure to be; #3 DR. EDGAR: Has had his issues, given the layoff lines, but he hasn’t run a bad race in more than two years and comes in off a strong second in his first start for Barclay Tagg. He’s got speed, but can also rate a bit, which opens up the possibility of an ideal stalking trip; #1 HOLIDAY BONUS: Hasn’t found the winner’s circle of late, but cuts back after going much longer last time out. This seems more like the trip he wants, and he’s another that could be moving the right way late.

R7

Myhartblongstodady
Chestnut Street
Way Smart

#7 MYHARTBLONGSTODADY: Missed by a nose at this level last time out, and she nearly got the job done after rallying from 10th in a 12-horse field. She’s drawn favorably here and would benefit from others showing early zip; #11 CHESTNUT STREET: Is the other Chad Brown runner, and she makes her first start against winners. She ran well earlier in the meet and could improve, but the post position is a red flag; #8 WAY SMART: Was third in the race my top pick exits after probably moving a bit too soon. Joe Bravo hops aboard, and he’s made the most of his mounts to this point in the meet.

R8

Proven Reserves
Souper Tapit
Secret House

#6 PROVEN RESERVES: Bounced back from a disappointing run two back with a daylight win earlier in the meet. If he can string two strong races together, he’ll strictly be the one to beat; #3 SOUPER TAPIT: Has run two sharp races in back-to-back off-the-turf events this season. He hasn’t won in more than a year, and this barn is cold, but the last race was strong enough that I can’t ignore him; #5 SECRET HOUSE: Was second as an odds-on favorite last time out and was claimed by Tom Amoss that day. His best race puts him in the mix, but it’s been a long summer for Amoss, who’s 0 for 12 at the meet as of this writing.

R9

Morticia
Epping Forest
Tillie’s Lily

#8 MORTICIA: Was one of many that was likely compromised by the soft going in the Caress Stakes last time out. Her usual race is certainly good enough to win, and we may get a price given the large field; #12 EPPING FOREST: Has won three of her last four coming into this race and figures to be running well late. She may have been my top pick if not for the horrendous post position, and she could very well overcome that; #5 TILLIE’S LILY: Has won four races in a row and will likely go very fast out of the gate. She may not be alone up front, but there’s a chance she’s faster than her opposition and will have plenty left for the stretch run.

R10

Iron Mast
Joe’s Smokin Gun
Powerstroke

#10 IRON MAST: Debuts in this spot for a sharp first-out trainer and is bred to be a solid turf horse. Given the lackluster field, that may be good enough to put him into the winner’s circle at a bit of a price; #8 JOE’S SMOKIN GUN: Is 0 for 12 lifetime and has run second three times in a row coming into this event. He’ll likely be forwardly placed, and that could help, but it’s tough to have too much confidence given the career record; #6 POWERSTROKE: Looks like the main early speed in this race, where he’ll come back to the turf course. I’m not sure how far he wants to go, but the inner turf does tend to move speed horses up a bit.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/25/18 (Travers Day)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,228.45

It’s Travers Day, which usually means some joke about NYRA’s ridiculous (and selectively-enforced) policy against running on the grounds. However, I’m breaking tradition to deal with something much more important, on a day where I hopefully have the audience to do it.

Over the past few weeks, journalism at some colleges and universities has come under attack. One school has merged journalism and public relations into the same major. Another (which I wrote about at length this past week) has gone so far as to restructure its student newspaper to essentially be a parrot for administrators and their missions. I highly doubt these schools are alone in taking these steps, and I want to do something about it.

If you’re an aspiring journalist/writer/reporter, and you’re looking for advice, my Twitter direct message box is open. I specifically opened it up for this purpose, and I’m happy to provide some sort of guidance to anyone who wants it. If you’re out there, and you’re somehow affected by the nonsense some administrators think is standard operating procedure, feel free to reach out (@AndrewChampagne).

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Kharafa winning may have been a feel-good moment given his advanced age, but it knocked us out of the Grand Slam (not like it was going to pay much, though). We dropped $24.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I think the stakes races are a bit chalky today, so I’ll focus on the early part of the program. My plays come in the second race, where I think there’s a way to extract some value out of #4 WAY EARLY. I’ll play $6 exactas using him above #2 NEW JERSEY JOHN, #6 IDES OF ARCH, and #10 APPEALING BRIEFS, as well as $3 exactas with him behind those three. Finally, I’ll single Way Early in $5 doubles that end with #1 TOMMY T and #8 SILVER DUST in the third.

TOTAL WAGERED: $37

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: City of Light, Race 9
Longshot: Bird’s Eye View, Race 5

R1

Puttheglassdown
Greyes Creek
Mischievous Bird

#5 PUTTHEGLASSDOWN: Debuted with a strong second to Nitrous, one of the better 2-year-olds on the grounds. We won’t get the 19-1 odds he was that day, but if he steps forward, he’ll be tough to beat; #1 GREYES CREEK: Fetched $850,000 at auction earlier this year and has worked like a good horse. The rail draw isn’t ideal for a debuting runner, but he may be talented enough to overcome it; #2 MISCHIEVOUS BIRD: Represents local racing institution Marylou Whitney and has been working very well for trainer Norm Casse. Offspring of Into Mischief tend to be precocious, and if you like him, you may get a bit of a price.

R2

Way Early
New Jersey John
Ides of Arch

#4 WAY EARLY: Drops into a first-level allowance after chasing graded stakes foes in each of his last two starts. He was second in the Grade 2 Penn Mile, and his usual race should beat this bunch; #2 NEW JERSEY JOHN: Was second at this level as a 24-1 shot earlier in the meet and won two of his three previous starts since coming off the bench. This barn hasn’t started many runners, but all five starters have hit the board; #6 IDES OF ARCH: Rallied to be third in his first start since November downstate, and his lone win came over this turf course. There’s some pace signed on in this race, and he could come running late for a piece of it.

R3

Tommy T
Silver Dust
Hollywood Star

#1 TOMMY T: Came off the bench running earlier in the meet, when he was second in a swift seven-furlong event. He’ll likely show speed from the rail, and it’s encouraging to see Rosario ride back; #8 SILVER DUST: Was fourth in that race, but likely went too fast early on. He’s worked well since and could be ripe for a bounce-back effort; #6 HOLLYWOOD STAR: Was third when cutting back to a sprint distance off of a freshening. The extra sixteenth could help him, and he may come running late at a price.

R4

Digital Footprint
Noble Nebraskan
Social Paranoia

#3 DIGITAL FOOTPRINT: Was a late-running second in his unveiling, which came at a two-turn distance. It’s tough to debut at such a route, and he wasn’t helped by the slow pace set in front of him; #14 NOBLE NEBRASKAN: May not draw in, but if he does, I need to use him. He’s bred up and down to be a good turf horse, and I’ve picked him three or four times this meet. One of these days, he’s going to run, right?; #7 SOCIAL PARANOIA: Goes to the turf and is bred to like it. He’s by solid turf sire Street Boss, and his 319 turf Tomlinson is one of the top such numbers in the field.

R5

Bird’s Eye View
Red Knight
Classic Covey

#2 BIRD’S EYE VIEW: Seems to have turned a corner from age three to age four. All three of his starts this year have shown significant improvement from his 2017 form, and he was a close second behind stakes-quality runner Patterson Cross last time out at Belmont; #4 RED KNIGHT: Has yet to miss the exacta in six career starts and showed a bit of tactical speed last time out. He’s one-half of a solid one-two punch for trainer Bill Mott, who’s had a good meet; #5 CLASSIC COVEY: Is the other Mott runner, and he’s chased some of the top turf horses on the East Coast in his last three starts. This class drop should help, although it’s a bit concerning that he hasn’t found a way to win since October.

R6

Promises Fulfilled
Still Having Fun
Firenze Fire

#1 PROMISES FULFILLED: May have been a one-turn horse all along. He ran a huge race in the Grade 3 Amsterdam, and while the potential for a bounce does exist, a repeat of that race would make him incredibly tough; #7 STILL HAVING FUN: Came from well back to win the Grade 2 Woody Stephens over several horses that also show up here (including my top pick). I doubt he’ll get that kind of setup again here, but he’s worked well, Rosario rides back, and he’d certainly benefit if my top pick isn’t gifted an easy lead; #8 FIRENZE FIRE: Ran a colossal race in the Grade 3 Dwyer, but I’m a bit skeptical he can repeat it. His best races have come at Belmont, where he also won last year’s Grade 1 Champagne, and that was such a huge improvement over his previous 2018 form that I’m skeptical he can reproduce that form (though he’ll be formidable if he does).

R7

Abel Tasman
Elate
Farrell

#1 ABEL TASMAN: Got back in the winner’s circle in emphatic fashion when romping in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps on Belmont Stakes Day. She won the Coaching Club American Oaks here last year, and while the rail draw isn’t ideal, she’s definitely the one to beat; #6 ELATE: Came back running in the Grade 2 Delaware Handicap, where she overpowered a questionable field going a 10-furlong distance she’s shown she loves. She won last year’s Grade 1 Alabama here and will get plenty of pace to rate behind; #5 FARRELL: Led all the way in the Grade 3 Shuvee and generally runs the same race every time out. She likely won’t be alone on the front end, but when this barn gets a horse on the right track, they tend to stay there.

R8

Finley’sluckycharm
Marley’s Freedom
Lewis Bay

#5 FINLEY’SLUCKYCHARM: Won the Grade 2 Honorable Miss off a bit of a freshening and looms large here. For a top-level sprint, there’s not a ton of early speed signed on, so she could sit a picture-perfect trip; #7 MARLEY’S FREEDOM: Ships east for the Bob Baffert barn and merits respect solely off of that fact. She’s won three in a row, including two graded stakes races, but her starts at seven furlongs haven’t been quite as impressive as her efforts going shorter; #6 LEWIS BAY: Took advantage in the Grade 3 Bed o’ Roses when main foe American Gal did not fire. She won by 5 1/2 lengths that day, and a repeat performance would almost certainly get her a piece of it here.

R9

City of Light
C Z Rocket
Limousine Liberal

#8 CITY OF LIGHT: Ships east for this event after a strong campaign to date. This seven-furlong trip hits him right between the eyes, and he’s already won a pair of Grade 1 events at this trip; #6 C Z ROCKET: Seems to have gotten stronger from age three to age four, and won a minor stakes last time out in impressive fashion. Toss the Grade 1 Malibu, and you’re left with a horse that’s won four of five starts for a high-percentage outfit; #1 LIMOUSINE LIBERAL: Has repeatedly shown that this is his best distance. He prevailed in the Grade 2 Belmont Sprint Championship last time out, but must once again work out a trip from a tricky inside post.

R10

Sadler’s Joy
Spring Quality
Funtastic

#10 SADLER’S JOY: Likely wasn’t helped by the soft going in the Grade 2 Bowling Green, but he was still beaten just a half-length in a race that did not set up for his running style. He won this event last year, and a repeat seems within his grasp; #2 SPRING QUALITY: Won the Grade 1 Manhattan, which has proven to be a very strong race. He won’t be 18-1 today, unfortunately, and the distance is a bit of an unknown, but the versatility he’s shown is a big plus; #3 FUNTASTIC: Has shown significant talent since being stretched out to extended turf routes. He wired the field in the Grade 1 United Nations at Monmouth, and while there were some circumstances in that race that didn’t help other runners (namely oppressive heat), there’s also a chance this one’s developed into a top-notch marathoner.

R11

Good Magic
Gronkowski
Mendelssohn

#9 GOOD MAGIC: Was an impressive winner of the Grade 1 Haskell at Monmouth and has trained well since shipping to upstate New York. There’s a chance this distance is a bit far for him, but if he repeats his last-out effort, I think he’s the most likely winner; #3 GRONKOWSKI: Rallied to be second behind Justify in the Belmont Stakes, a race that doubled as his American debut. He was sidelined with a minor injury earlier in the summer, but he’s working well and would benefit from a speed duel; #8 MENDELSSOHN: Almost certainly went too fast early on in the Grade 3 Dwyer, where horse-for-course Firenze Fire romped. His Kentucky Derby effort is a throw-out, and I think it’s encouraging that he’s been shipped back across the Atlantic for another shot at this level.

R12

A Raving Beauty
Proctor’s Ledge
Quidura

#1 A RAVING BEAUTY: Won two in a row before being beaten less than a length by next-out Grade 1 Beverly D. winner Sistercharlie in the Grade 1 Diana. She’s not an easy horse to ride, and I’m not crazy about the post, but her best race beats these; #3 PROCTOR’S LEDGE: Had a troubled trip in the Diana, but has shown an affinity for this turf course and is reunited with John Velazquez, who piloted her to her two top efforts of the season. It does help that there’s some speed signed on; #5 QUIDURA: May have needed the race last time out, one that doubled as her first start in nine months. She’s won a pair of graded stakes races and was beaten a head by Lady Eli in last year’s Diana on this turf course.

R13

American Rule (MTO)
Azzedine
Victor Lounge

#5 AZZEDINE: Drops further down the class ladder after misfiring at 7/5 against $75,000 maiden claimers earlier in the meet. He didn’t have the best of trips that day, and this seems like a “now or never” spot; #9 VICTOR LOUNGE: Has shown ample early speed in several starts at this level and returns to a two-turn route of ground. He’s run several of his better races at such a configuration, and he could get brave if given an easy lead; #11 SPRING ON CURLIN: Has certainly had plenty of chances, but was a fast-closing fourth when dropped to this level last time out. That was over a yielding surface that may have dulled his late kick a bit, and he could improve at a price over firm going. DIRT SELECTIONS: AMERICAN RULE, UNCLE LARRY, WISELY.