selections

Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Pegasus World Cup Day (1/27/18), PLUS Thoughts on the Breeders’ Cup Derby

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Before I dive into extended race-by-race analysis of Saturday’s tremendous Pegasus World Cup Day program at Gulfstream Park, I wanted to expound a bit on what’s become a touchy subject in the horse racing community.

As reported by many sources, the Breeders’ Cup was entertaining the idea of a Breeders’ Cup Derby. The race would be restricted to 3-year-olds, and as a result of this race’s implementation, the Breeders’ Cup Classic would be pushed back to December.

I tweeted my thoughts on this idea a few days ago. If you didn’t see it, it’s below.

Grade 1 races are supposed to be difficult to win. They should mean something when a horse retires and goes off to stud, not be part of a culture where there are so many Grade 1 races that almost every decent horse gets a piece of the pie (especially in years where foal crops are declining). We do not need more Grade 1 races restricted to 3-year-olds, and we certainly do not need them scheduled near the end of the year, when those horses should be testing themselves against older company.

Standing pat, with the current setup as it was run in 2017, is clearly the solution preferred by a wide margin of racing fans. In fact, in spending time on Twitter, I failed to come across a single positive opinion of the Breeders’ Cup Derby. DRF colleague Matt Hegarty reported that the Breeders’ Cup board did not commit to any changes in their meeting Friday, and that’s a relief.

Now that we’ve gotten through that, let’s take a look at Saturday’s 12-race card at Gulfstream Park. It’s headlined by the world’s richest horse race, the $16 million Pegasus World Cup, which doubles as the final race of Horse of the Year Gun Runner before the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner retires to stud. That race goes as the finale, and there are ample wagering opportunities before Gun Runner and company hit the track.

I’ve got three Pick Four battle plans below the analysis, so if you’re solely interested in those, scroll down. However, with the big fields and juicy prices on tap, I felt each race deserved its own write-up, so that’s what I’m doing. Let’s get started!

RACE #1: Right off the bat, we have what I felt was the toughest race on the card. I’m grateful that Gulfstream carded this one as the opener, which puts it out of all three Pick Four sequences (although it does kick off the early Pick Five).

This is a maiden race for 3-year-old fillies going long on the turf, and there are some first-time starters with flashy pedigrees that bookend the full field of 14. #1 AMERTUME is out of a mare who’s a half to Grade 1 winner First Defence, and her female family traces back to all-time great broodmare Tousseau (who threw Empire Maker and Chester House, among others). Additionally, #14 TOUCH OF GRACE is out of a mare named Sealy Hill, who was one of the top horses in Canada in her heyday. She fetched $275,000 at auction and is trained by Chad Brown, but that post is a killer, and it’s tough to debut going two turns.

I’ll use them both underneath a few horses that have run before. #8 SPECIAL TRIP is my top pick. She was a good second last time out at Belmont, and while she hasn’t run in three months, the past two workouts show she could be sitting on “go.” I’ll also take a bit of a swing with #10 SHOW GIRL, who’s bred to go much longer than the six furlongs she went in her debut. Her recent turf works are lively, she should appreciate the added distance she gets here, and I think she’ll be bet down a bit from her 15-1 morning line. Finally, #12 SMART SHOT is the tepid 7/2 favorite on the morning line, and she was a solid third in her turf debut last month. She could win this, but that last race was a pretty big step up for her, so a bounce is also in question.

RACE #2: This maiden special weight starts the first of three Pick Four sequences. It’ll be contested at a tricky seven-furlong distance, and while that’s a tough route to debut at, two of the four horses I’m using are first-time starters.

#2 CACHE is working impressively ahead of her debut, and she’s bred to be a good one. Her second dam is a full sister to Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Spain, and this one fetched $500,000 at auction and has appeared to move forward in the mornings for Mark Hennig, who’s hit at an alarming rate with first-time starters of late. I’ll also use fellow debutante #3 TAKECHARGEDELILAH, a Todd Pletcher trainee that’s a half to stakes winner Mo Don’t No.

Of the ones that have run before, I prefer second-time starters #6 MUCHACHA UNO and #8 ROMANTIC MOMENT, both of whom are eligible to improve adding distance off of debuts much shorter than they likely want to go. I’m going against morning line favorite #9 COACH ROCKS, who has had plenty of chances and enjoyed a perfect trip last time out, only to get caught. If that one beats me, I’ll live with it.

RACE #3: This is the first graded stakes race of the day. It’s the Grade 3 La Prevoyante, and seven older mares will go a mile and a half on turf. In my opinion, this race houses the day’s most likely winner. Unfortunately, she won’t be any sort of a price.

#7 APPLE BETTY won a pair of stakes races last year going 12 furlongs, and in doing so, she dispatched several rivals she’ll line up against in this spot. Her tactical speed is a big plus, as is the continued presence of John Velazquez. Anything close to the form she displayed in the Grade 3 Dowager is good enough to win this, and she may even be able to afford a slight regression.

If you want to include another horse, I’d recommend #2 SUMMERSAULT, who’s done some of her best running over this turf course. She won three in a row here last winter/spring, and she may relish a return to her favorite track. However, she’d likely have to improve considerably to defeat Apple Betty.

RACE #4: We go back to the main track for this one, a maiden event with a field of 13 3-year-olds going a one-turn mile. There are some intriguing prospects here, but I think you need to use a shipper that may go off at a big price.

The post-time favorite will likely be #4 PERSONAL TIME or #13 LIFE’S A PARLAY. The first horse mentioned is Orb’s younger brother, and while he hasn’t done a ton of running to date, he could easily wake up with the addition of Lasix. Meanwhile, the outside horse is a second-time starter that ran well in his debut after a rough start.

However, don’t sleep on #10 ROSE’S VISION, who comes to Gulfstream off of a solid (albeit winless) campaign at Woodbine last year. There’s a chance he’s a turf horse in need of a race, but if he can run as well on dirt, his 15-1 morning line odds represent a considerable overlay. He was third behind Dixie Moon two back in a $226,000 stakes race, and if he really was in need of a race, why is he getting Lasix? I think he could be ready to run, and if he can run on dirt, he could shake up the exotics at a large number.

RACE #5: This is the male version of the opener, and it’s almost as wide-open as that race was. In my multi-race tickets, I’m five-deep, and I’ve sprinkled some prices in with the logical contenders.

#3 EMPIRICALLY is a logical favorite. He crossed the wire first in his debut, then ran against stakes foes in each of his next two starts before a brief freshening. His comeback race was fine, and he can win this, but I can’t feel confident trimming this down when he had a nice trip last time out against state-breds and couldn’t get the job done.

Additionally, #6 NEEPAWA exits stakes races at Woodbine and has worked well ahead of his 3-year-old debut, and #7 SARGEANT DRIVE was beaten less than two lengths at this level in his turf debut. They’ll both get bet, but I also need to use two prices. #9 PIANTAGRANE was second at this level last time out despite racing greenly, and #11 GUNNISON adds blinkers and has shown zip in the mornings since his last race.

RACE #6: We’ll shorten things up for the sixth, which is the Ladies’ Turf Sprint. While you probably need to use the two shorter prices drawn to the outside, their bad luck at the post position draw opens things up for a horse that may be a bit more of a price.

My top pick is #3 JUSTA LADY, who comes back to the turf after a lackluster showing in an off-the-turf race two months ago at Churchill Downs. Before that, she notched six straight top-two finishes, including a second behind Morticia in a stakes race at Keeneland. Her 2017 form is certainly good enough to win this, and she could capitalize on many others having to endure wider trips.

I’m not completely against #11 BRANDY’S GIRL and #12 BLUE BAHIA, both of whom are certainly talented enough to win this. Neither needs the lead, which helps, but they may lose significant ground going around the turn. I’ll use them, but Justa Lady is my key horse here, and I’m hoping we get the 6-1 morning line price.

RACE #7: Older horses will go postward in the Grade 3 Fred Hooper. This has attracted 11 milers, and this is another case where the race may set up for a 6-1 shot.

#8 TOMMY MACHO spent most of 2017 running against top-notch competition. A look at his running lines reveals names like Sharp Azteca, Mind Your Biscuits, Drefong, Mor Spirit, and Awesome Slew, and this spot is a significant step down in class. Furthermore, he does his best running at Gulfstream Park, having won stakes races at this level and route in each of the past two seasons, and this race should set up for a closer. He’s my top pick in here, and this may be another case where the large field inflates the prices we see come post time.

I’ll also, reluctantly, be using #1 TALE OF SILENCE. I usually don’t like betting closers on the rail, especially at his likely price, but he could get an ideal setup for his style given the abundance of early speed in this field.

RACE #8: The morning line man thinks this is a two-horse race, and I’m inclined to agree. It’s the Grade 3 W. L. McKnight, and I’m not going deeper than #5 BULLARDS ALLEY and #7 OSCAR NOMINATED.

The former ran well in defeat last time out, when he fell a head short in the two-mile H. Allen Jerkens. His 12-furlong form is evident, and on back class, he’s the horse to beat. Meanwhile, Oscar Nominated threw in a clunker last time out at Aqueduct, but he quietly earned more than $600,000 in each of the past two seasons, and his usual race would definitely give him a big shot.

RACE #9: The late Pick Four starts with the Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie, and it features a local favorite that will likely be a pretty heavy favorite. I’m using her, but there’s another in here that I find interesting.

#7 CURLIN’S APPROVAL is 7-for-11 at Gulfstream Park, and I might argue her best race here came in defeat last time out. She went a bit longer than she probably wants, but she still ran second behind a talented horse (Lewis Bay). She’ll love the cutback to a familiar distance, and if she runs her typical race, others would have to improve to beat her.

However, I’m also intrigued by #1 MARLEY’S FREEDOM, who was last seen running fourth in the Grade 1 La Brea. Unique Bella and Paradise Woods ran 1-2 in that race, so this spot certainly provides some class relief, and the presence of Mike Smith certainly doesn’t hurt. She’s 10-1 on the morning line, and I highly doubt we get that price come post time.

RACE #10: This is the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint, and I can see this race playing out one of two ways. I think that either the likely favorite goes wire-to-wire, or he gets cooked and a closer picks up the pieces.

If a front-runner wins, that front-runner is most likely to be #8 PAY ANY PRICE. He’s a local favorite, and a distance specialist that has won eight of 10 starts at this distance. He’s an absolute rocket ship out of the gate, and he’ll look to defend his home turf against shippers from around the country.

If Pay Any Price does not win, I don’t think it’s another speed horse that takes the top prize. I think a closer rallies, and that could be one of #6 RAINBOW HEIR, #9 TOMBELAINE, or #11 BLIND AMBITION. Also, while I’m not crazy about him, #7 RICHARD’S BOY did beat Pay Any Price the last time they faced off, so I can’t completely ignore him. At any rate, Pay Any Price is my key horse, but I can’t discount the possibility of him getting worn down trying to make the lead.

RACE #11: We’ll stay on the turf for the South Beach Stakes. With a better draw, the favorite may have been a single for me. However, #11 CELESTINE is parked outside, so while I’m using her, it wouldn’t be shocking if she lost, especially with such a short run to the first turn.

My other two primary horses are #8 PERDONA and #10 STORM THE HILL. Perdona is a price on the morning line (15-1), but she got good in the middle of last year and may have simply hated Woodbine’s synthetic track. She’s got speed and should be forwardly-placed early on, and I’m banking on a return to her mid-2017 form. Meanwhile, Storm the Hill led turning for home last time out before settling for third. That was probably a hair longer than she wants to go, and this cutback should be just what the doctor ordered.

Celestine’s best race certainly wins this, but she’s been off four months and doesn’t draw well, so it won’t be stunning if she’s knocked off. In addition to the two I mentioned, I’ll also have a small piece of #9 STORMY VICTORIA, who was a close-up third behind the talented On Leave last time out. She may be at her best around one turn, but one smaller Pick Four ticket will have her on it.

RACE #12: Here we are at the Pegasus World Cup. #10 GUN RUNNER will be a heavy favorite, and rightfully so. If he’s right, he’s strictly the one to beat, and all indications are that he’s as good as ever heading into his final race.

Much has been made of the post position draw. Gun Runner didn’t draw particularly well given the layout of this route, which features a short run into the first turn. However, if he clears #9 TOAST OF NEW YORK, he should at least sit a manageable trip with regard to ground saved. He doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to win, as he proved in the Woodward, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him sit just off the pace before pouncing turning for home.

The question is, can any of the frontrunners survive what could be a scorching pace? #4 SHARP AZTECA and #5 COLLECTED will almost certainly gun for the front, while #1 SINGING BULLET, #2 WEST COAST, and #3 STELLAR WIND may vie for the lead as well (and certainly won’t be far off the pace). Add in Toast of New York and #12 GIANT EXPECTATIONS, and you’ve got the makings of a potential pace meltdown.

Of those runners, I most prefer Collected. I understand his run in the Grade 2 San Antonio was not sharp, but I’m treating that race as a throw-out. He didn’t break well, and Mike Smith tried to rate him behind a very slow pace. He should sit his preferred trip today, and like Gun Runner, he may be better at a mile and an eighth than he is at a mile and a quarter.

Many handicappers have insisted on using #6 GUNNEVERA because of the aforementioned pace scenario, and I understand why. He’s a deep closer that loves Gulfstream and will be a big price. However, the closer I’m throwing on one of my Pick Four tickets in case of a complete meltdown is #7 FEAR THE COWBOY, who figures to be an even bigger price. I really liked his win in the Grade 3 Harlan’s Holiday, and that was his second graded stakes win of 2017 at this track. Tyler Gaffalione has ridden very well this meet, and I need to use him at least a little bit in case crazy fractions get posted.

PICK FOUR TICKETS

Early Pick Four: Race #2

R2: 2,3,6,8
R3: 7
R4: 4,10,13
R5: 3,6,7,9,11

60 Bets, $30

I’m trying to extract some value out of Apple Betty, who may be the second shortest price on the entire card. I’ve got some prices on this ticket, and I think there’s room for an early score here.

Middle Pick Four: Race #5

R5: 3,6,7,9,11
R6: 3,11,12
R7: 1,8
R8: 5,7

60 Bets, $30

The scratch of Game Over (who I’d previously used) makes this a more affordable ticket. I was tempted to single Tommy Macho, but ultimately decided I needed to use Tale of Silence as well given the likely race shape.

Late Pick Four: Race #9

I’m going to go a bit different with this. There’s a guaranteed pool of $1 million up for grabs, and I’ve got three tickets that total $40.

Ticket #1

R9: 1,7
R10: 6,8,9,11
R11: 8,10,11
R12: 5,10

48 Bets, $24

This is the main ticket, and if you’re only playing one, this is the one I’d suggest. There are no singles, but it’s a manageable $24 and it’s got the horses I really like on it.

Ticket #2

R9: 7
R10: 8
R11: 8,9,10,11
R12: 2,4,5,7,10

20 Bets, $10

This one singles my top picks in the first two races (Curlin’s Approval and Pay Any Price), while also opening things up a bit in the last two races. It adds Stormy Victoria in the third leg, while also throwing in West Coast, Sharp Azteca, and Fear the Cowboy in the Pegasus.

Ticket #3

R9: 1,7
R10: 7,8
R11: 8,10,11
R12: 10

12 Bets, $6

Finally, this is a skinnier ticket that singles Gun Runner in the Pegasus. It also adds in Richard’s Boy in the second leg, since he’s not covered on the other two tickets.

Long story short: If we can get the 7-8 double home in the ninth and tenth, we’ll be alive to everything halfway through the sequence. Even if Gun Runner wins the Pegasus, the large field sizes ensure that this won’t pay peanuts, and if we can hit it multiple times, that’s great.

Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Fair Grounds, Santa Anita (1/13/18)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Saturday is the first big day of the season at Fair Grounds. Kentucky Derby points are on the line in the Lecomte, which has drawn a full field of horses from across the country. Additionally, I also found the Saturday card at Santa Anita to be an interesting puzzle, and I’ve got my fair share of action there as well.

Without further ado, let’s get to it!

FAIR GROUNDS

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #2

R2: 8,12
R3: 1,3,7
R4: ALL
R5: 4

72 Bets, $36

In both of these Pick Four sequences, I’m hoping to bolster value on shorter-priced singles by finding some prices early. This is especially so in the early Pick Four, where my single may be the shortest price on this entire card.

The second race is an allowance event on turf that drew a full field. #12 MAGIC JOAN would’ve probably been a single for me with a better post. Her debut was very good, and she followed that up with a strong second in a swiftly-run race over Aqueduct’s fairly-slow turf course. However, I’m also throwing in a big price. #8 NUTCRACKER SUITE makes her North American debut and adds Lasix, which is often a huge addition. The works two and three back hint at talent, and it wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world if she was ready to run in her North American unveiling.

The third is a maiden race for 3-year-olds, and while I respect #3 FASCILITATOR and am using him, my top pick is an 8-1 shot. #7 NOLA WIN was second in his debut, and trainer Dallas Stewart’s horses aren’t usually fully cranked at first asking. The winner that day is an exciting prospect, and the most recent workout (third-fastest of 144 at the distance that day) says he’s taken a step forward since that race. I’ll also throw in #1 NEW COLOSSUS despite the rail draw. His workouts are sharp, and he’s got the pedigree to be very good (his second dam is a full sister to General Challenge).

Singling late in the sequence means I can buy coverage in the fourth, which I found to be the toughest race of the day. This is a 12-horse field, and I need to use all of them. The morning line favorite is 4-1, which should tell you all you need to know about this group. Not much would surprise me, and hopefully we’ll get a price home.

The fifth race is the Duncan Kenner, and my single is 4/5 favorite #4 YOCKEY’S WARRIOR, who’s simply a different horse at Fair Grounds. He’s won five of his last six races, with the lone loss coming in a Grade 3 at Keeneland. This isn’t a bad field, but a repeat of his last-out victory would make him extremely difficult to beat.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #7

R7: 1,2,5,7
R8: 1,2,3,5,6,9
R9: 5,10,12
R10: 5

72 Bets, $36

This late Pick Four features four stakes races, including the Grade 3 Lecomte. As mentioned, my strategy is to get to my best bet of the sequence, which I’ve singled in the payoff leg.

The seventh is the Silverbulletday for 3-year-old fillies, and for an ungraded stakes race, it came up VERY tough. Three horses ran in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, and I’m using them all. However, I also need to throw in #5 STELLAR MOON. She’s bred up and down for two turns, and she finally gets such a route here. At her price, and with her breeding, I need to have her on my ticket.

The eighth is the Colonel E.R. Bradley on turf, and like most of the grass races on the card, I thought this was wide-open. My top pick is #5 TOWER OF TEXAS, who didn’t have a great trip when third in the Grade 3 Tropical Turf. With more racing luck, he may have won that day, and I need to use him. However, with such a big field, I also wouldn’t be shocked with another troubled trip, so I need to spread.

The ninth is the Lecomte, and I’m using the two likely favorites plus a middle-priced horse. #10 INSTILLED REGARD ran well in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity, and #12 PRINCIPE GUILHERME is 2-for-2 and has yet to be tested. In addition to those two, #5 KOWBOY KARMA also merits respect. His longer races are fine, and the Larry Jones barn must be respected in these spots.

All of this leads up to the Louisiana Stakes, where I’m singling a horse that could have a big year. That’s #5 THE PLAYER, who won the Grade 2 Fayette two back before a misfire in the Grade 1 Clark. He’s run up against better horses recently, and the work tab is very impressive. He’s definitely the horse to beat, and with his tactical speed, he could sit a dream trip just off the speed and get first run when the real running starts.

SANTA ANITA

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #2

R2: 2,4,5
R3: 1,3,5
R4: 6,7
R5: 3,4,7

54 Bets, $27

Usually, I give out an early Pick Five ticket. However, I simply can’t give one out that’s within a budget I feel comfortable with. With that in mind, I’ve opted to focus on the early Pick Four instead.

The second race is a maiden claiming event. #2 SOUL SOUND may go off favored, but I have my doubts. She’s not the only class-dropper in this field. #4 TOPAZ TIME has back races that make her competitive, and #5 DEL MAR DIVA gets a positive rider switch and sports a flashy recent workout over this track.

I think Bob Baffert wins the third race. The question is, with which one of his three runners? I’m using all of them, and this ticket may come down in cost a bit, as Baffert tends to scratch some runners of his in this sort of situation. Of the three I used, I’m most intrigued by #1 CURLY’S ROCKET, who has worked well following a disappointing debut. The rail draw doesn’t help, but he may be mature enough to overcome it.

The fourth race is a fun turf event with several stakes-quality runners. My top pick is #7 UNAPOLOGETIC, who gets Mike Smith in this spot. He generally runs the same race every time out, and he was beaten two lengths last time out by Editore, who won his next start after that before finishing third in the Grade 2 San Gabriel. I’m also using #6 A RED TIE DAY, who loves this turf course. He’s won just once since October of 2016, but several of his starts in that timespan have come against much better competition.

The fifth is a $12,500 claimer, and it’s drawn a lot of familiar faces from the circuit. I’m three-deep, and I’m using three logical horses. #3 MR. SHOOK drops way down in class, #4 DUKES UP makes his first start for new trainer Doug O’Neill, and #7 CITY STEEL returns to his favorite track and will run for his lowest tag since at least 2016.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 2,7
R7: 1,5,7,10
R8: 2
R9: 8,9

16 Bets, $8

My strategy here is pretty simple, as I’m attempting to extract some value from a horse that will likely be an odds-on favorite. I am, however, using some prices elsewhere, so there’s a chance we get a solid return on investment.

The sixth is a sprint down the hill, and I like a 6-1 shot on top. #2 DOC CURLIN has never run a bad race at this route, and the addition of Evin Roman is a big plus. I’ll also use #7 MOONLIGHT DRIVE, a horse I’ve always liked since his flashy win in his North American debut. He’s hit the board in a pair of graded stakes races, and the horses he’s lost to are high-class thoroughbreds. While Doc Curlin is my top pick, and a horse I was admittedly tempted to single based on the price, I couldn’t go forward without using this Bob Baffert trainee as well.

The seventh is a bottom-level claiming event for older horses going six furlongs. #10 LAMBO LUXX may be favored, but I don’t think he’s a cinch. He didn’t beat much last time out at Los Alamitos, and his most recent race here at Santa Anita (which came over a track considerably slower than the Santa Anita strip he’s won over in the past) was not good. I’ll use him, but I want some coverage elsewhere. #1 PAT THE BEAR has tons of early speed, #5 CHROMIUM has improved since dropping to this level two back, and #7 PRIVATE PROSPECT takes a big drop off of a controversial race Sunday.

My single will be a popular one. #2 MAJESTIC HEAT looms large in the Grade 2 La Canada, and she’s emerged as a high-quality dirt horse since trying the surface two back. At some point, she’ll face the heavyweights of this division, but this group seems a cut below those. If she doesn’t win, I lose, and I imagine many tickets go up in smoke.

We finish the card with another race down the hill. This one is for $25,000 claimers, and my top pick takes a steep drop in class. #8 COASTLINE was beaten less than two lengths two back in the Grade 3 Eddie D, and some of his best races have come at this route. His best race wins this, but just in case he’s tailing off, I’m also using #9 GENERAL IKE, who did everything but win in his lone downhill race to date, which came for a $40,000 tag. He didn’t break well last time out at Del Mar, and the outside post position is a big plus.

Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita (1/6/18)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

We’ve come to the first Saturday of the new year, and with it come two intriguing programs at Gulfstream and Santa Anita. Gulfstream has an assortment of ungraded stakes races on the docket, while Santa Anita will host two graded events, one of which features Kentucky Derby points for the top four finishers. I’ve got two multi-race tickets at each track, so let’s get going!

GULFSTREAM PARK

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 10,11
R2: 2,3,6
R3: 3,5
R4: 3,5
R5: 4,7,8

72 Bets, $36

If you believe in the axiom, “Pace makes the race,” the outside two horses look like the ones to beat in the Saturday opener. There’s a lot of early speed signed on, and this race appears to set up for closers #10 FAN BASE and #11 LITTLE BALTAR. The outside posts give me some pause, but so many horses inside of them need the lead, and I think those runners will be backing up late.

I thought the second race was very interesting. I don’t like #7 ROYAL HOLIDAY or #8 ALIEN INVASION, both of whom may not want two turns. My top pick is #2 FLYING LIBERTY, who exits a minor stakes race and won at this route three back. I’ll also use #6 COMETIN, who likes this turf course, and I’m also throwing in #3 WICKED BOY, on the off chance he replicates his two-back effort beneath new jockey Jose Ortiz.

The third is the Limehouse Stakes, and I’m intrigued by #3 PIVEN, who ships in from Woodbine. Usually, that’s not an angle I like, but he’s been working very well lately, and if he runs to those drills, he’ll be very tough. I’m also using #5 EMPIRE POWER, who may be the controlling early speed in this short field.

I’m also two-deep in the fourth, where I’ll use a pair of class-droppers. #3 WHAT POWER last ran for a $35,000 tag and goes out for the red-hot Marcus Vitali barn, while #5 SPORTSCASTER has a number of solid races over this turf course and won in his last start at this level.

The payoff leg is the Glitter Woman Stakes, and I’m three-deep in what turned out to be a fascinating field. #4 CICATRIX and #7 ELEVENSES both romped in their debuts for trainers whose first-time starters aren’t always fully cranked, so they definitely merit consideration. I’m also using #8 FOXTROT SALLY, who may have simply not wanted two turns last time out in the Grade 2 Golden Rod. Javier Castellano’s presence is a positive, and we may get a bit of a price given the recent dud.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #8

R8: 5,6,10
R9: 8
R10: 3,6
R11: ALL

72 Bets, $36

With 42 entrants across four races, there’s plenty of room for this to pay pretty well, even if shorter-priced horses find the winner’s circle. The first three legs may be formful, but if we get to the last leg, we’ll hit, and hopefully for a nice chunk of change.

The eighth is a seven-furlong maiden race for 3-year-olds, and we may see some of these horses on the road to the Kentucky Derby. #6 LIFE’S A PARLAY debuts for Todd Pletcher, and this $725,000 auction purchase is bred to be a good one. With that in mind, though, some of the workouts are pretty slow, so I want a bit more coverage than just him. #5 COVE BLUE has shown ample early speed and should relish the cutback in distance, while #10 ORBED probably needed his debut and should improve at second asking, especially with the added furlong.

I’m excited for the ninth, as there’s a 9/2 shot I really like. #8 ANDINA DEL SUR rallied impressively in her debut, and that race has proven to be a live one given the next-out winners it has produced. Every part of her pedigree says she wants to go two turns, and there should be plenty of early speed in here to set up for the kick she showed in her unveiling. I’d be very happy if we got the morning line price.

Like most people, I think the 10th race, the Mucho Macho Man, is a two-horse race. #3 DAK ATTACK was one of the most impressive 2-year-olds in the country last summer before going to the sidelines, and #6 MASK was a sharp first-out winner for Chad Brown. I’d be pretty surprised if the winner wasn’t one of those two runners.

If we get through those three legs, we’re assured to hit this wager. I needed to buy the Saturday finale because I didn’t have a clue, and judging by the morning line odds, I’m not alone. The 7/2 favorite is a horse that has been beaten a total of 33 1/4 lengths in two lifetime starts. The 4-1 second choice trailed in his debut and was beaten more than 24 lengths at odds of 32-1. If you’ve got conviction, good for you. I certainly don’t, and if we get to this point, I’ll be rooting for pari-mutuel chaos.

SANTA ANITA

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 5
R2: ALL
R3: 3,7,8,10
R4: 1,5,12
R5: 6

96 Bets, $48

My initial feeling is that the Pick Five sequence that kicks off with the Saturday opener could wind up a bit chalky. The bookends feature popular singles, and hopefully, we can get a price or two home in the middle legs.

At first, I wanted to play against #5 MIDNIGHT SWINGER in the first. She’s dropping in class after losing her last eight races. However, the more I looked at this race, the more I disliked her opponents. #8 ROAD TEST was beaten by that one two back, #2 TIZ ADORE is 1-for-12 and has had many chances to break through, and #9 QUINN MURPHY hasn’t won since being claimed this past summer. It’s a “hold your nose” single, but that’s where I’m going.

Singling twice allows me to spread elsewhere, and I need to hit the “ALL” button in the second race. This is a bottom-level claiming event featuring horses that seem to take turns beating one another. I can’t back any of these horses with conviction, so I’ll use all eight and hope for a price.

I’m also going pretty deep in the third. This is a maiden claimer, and I can’t get too excited about any of these, either. #8 PSYCHEDELICAT may go off favored, and his Beyer Speed Figures are such that I need to use him, but he’s 0-for-12 and has never so much as run second. Of the four I used, I most prefer #7 CONFIRMED, who just missed when dropping down to this level last time out, and #10 PATH OF EXILE, who drops down in class and is eligible to improve second off the layoff for trainer Michael McCarthy.

If #12 RANCOR had gotten a better post, she may have merited a single. She did everything but win in her turf debut at Del Mar, when she was a length behind next-out stakes winner Ippodamia’s Girl. A repeat of that race would make her tough, but she’s parked way outside, so I need to use two others. #1 PAVED was third that day, and #5 EVER SO TRUE exits the Grade 3 Jimmy Durante, where she was beaten just three lengths.

The fifth is the Grade 3 Sham for 3-year-olds, and it features one of the top Kentucky Derby prospects on the west coast. That’s #6 MCKINZIE, who was put up in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity. He’s worked very well since then, and if he runs his usual race, he’s going to be incredibly tough to beat.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 5,6,7,11
R7: 6,7,8,9
R8: 1
R9: 4,6,7,10,12

80 Bets, $40

I thought the Pick Five was pretty chalky. The late Pick Four? Not so much. I think this has the potential to pay very well, and my ticket spreads in three legs while singling a 6-1 shot in the other one.

We start off the sequence with a maiden claimer, and I’m not overly impressed by many of these runners. Of the four I used, the two I like most are #5 IMPECUNIOUS, who ships down from Golden Gate, and #11 KARMIC AFFINITY, who’s been working well ahead of her debut and draws a cushy outside post.

The seventh is the Grade 2 San Gabriel, and while the cast of characters may be a bit underwhelming, the evenly-matched nature of it makes for a fun betting race. I’m four-deep, and one horse I used figures to be a big price. #9 FREE ROSE ran just once in 2017, but he’s done very little wrong over the course of his career. That one race was a solid fourth in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile, where he finished just two lengths behind Bal a Bali. If he’s right, I think he’s got a big shot.

My single comes in the third leg, a seven-furlong claiming event. #1 KISS MY LULU seems like the race’s main speed, and inside speed has been very good in these extended sprints so far this meet. I’m tossing the two recent races over Golden Gate’s synthetic surface, as she’s much better on conventional dirt. If she breaks well, she could get an ideal setup, and because of that, I really like her.

If we’re alive going into the finale, we’ll be five-deep. #10 INSTANT REFLEX isn’t a bad favorite, but she’s never run down the hill before, and that’s a major concern. I’ll use her, but I need coverage elsewhere. The longshot that has to be on my ticket is #7 PHANTOM PROTON, who was beaten less than four lengths in a fast race at this route two back before running into the talented Painting Corners last time out at Del Mar. There’s plenty of speed to set up for her late kick, and the presence of top downhill rider Corey Nakatani is a huge plus.

Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Gulfstream, Santa Anita (12/30/17), PLUS a Special Message of Thanks

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Before we dive in to the analysis of Saturday’s cards at Gulfstream and Santa Anita, I want to take a moment in my final post of 2017 to say thank you.

I started this website nine months ago, and I started it for several reasons. Obviously, writing and handicapping are two of my biggest passions, and this gave me an outlet for that, but there were other factors at play as well. Admittedly, a large part of starting this website was in response to being told I wasn’t good enough to do certain things, and as anyone who knows me can attest, the best way to motivate me to do something is to tell me I’m incapable of doing it.

I didn’t start this site to get a certain amount of page views, so the data I’ve got knocks my socks off. In the nine months that this site has been online, it’s gotten almost 25,000 hits. In the grand scheme of things, it’s not a ton, but for one guy doing this site for no money and no ulterior motive other than providing relevant content for the sport he loves, it’s powerful stuff.

To those of you that have come along for the ride, thank you. 2017 was a banner year for me professionally. In addition to the launch of this site, I landed a fantastic job at the Daily Racing Form, and I emerged as the Saratoga meet’s leading handicapper across all media. As I tell people, “128 winners at a single Saratoga meet” is fast becoming my version of Al Bundy’s “four touchdowns in a single game!”

On a serious note, whether you visited from the start or came on at some point during the year, I’m incredibly grateful for your support. It’s my hope that 2018 provides even more excitement, and maybe even some more winners to boot. As a reminder, there’s a “contact” feature on this website, and I read every message that comes in. If you have a question, comment, or concern, use that and bring it to my attention.

Now, let’s see if we can make some money on the Saturday cards at Gulfstream and Santa Anita. My analysis, selections, and tickets are below. Let’s get to it!

GULFSTREAM PARK

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 2,7
R2: ALL
R3: 6,8
R4: 2,3
R5: 7

96 Bets, $48

On the whole, I think this is a pretty formful sequence. However, we may be able to make some money by getting lucky in the second leg, and even if the rest of the ticket chalks out, there may be some avenues to a profit.

The opener is a sprint for 3-year-olds, and I’ll use the two likely betting choices. #2 VENCEDOR may be favored on the class drop for Antonio Sano, but I actually prefer stablemate #7 CORONADO AGAIN, who figures to be the race’s controlling speed. He does step up in class, but he’s run against some tough opposition in the past and may get a dream setup if he’s allowed to coast to the front early.

I’m buying the second race, which, for my money, is the toughest race on the entire card. Several of the longshots are worth long looks, and the favorites aren’t without their flaws. It’s tough to predict which horse gets the early lead, and with many of the shorter prices being one-run closers, they may be crawling early. I want maximum coverage, and with a little luck, we’ll get a price home to knock out some tickets.

I’ll use the two favorites in the third, a bottom-level claimer going the one-turn mile route. #6 GOODTIMEHADBYALL and #8 ENDERS CAT drop out of the same Claiming Crown race, and by the numbers, they appear to have this field over a barrel. I’ll go a similar route in the fourth, using #2 BULLDOZER and #3 MR. BAKER, who’ll both be short prices.

That leads to the H. Allen Jerkens, a two-mile race on turf where I have a single. #7 BULLARDS ALLEY wants to run as long as possible, and a repeat of either of his last two efforts would make him tough to beat. He was beaten less than four lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, and anywhere close to that type of performance would mean someone else would need to run a career-best race to win. I usually don’t like singling in marathon races, but this one makes sense.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #8

R8: 1,4,11,13,14,15
R9: 2,3,5,7,10
R10: 9
R11: 2,3,10

90 Bets, $45

I found this late Pick Four sequence baffling, especially since three major contenders in the opening leg are also-eligibles that may not run. For now, I’m putting them all on the ticket, and we’ll adjust the value of the ticket downward if there are any scratches.

The eighth is a claiming event on the turf for non-winners of three, and it’s not an easy race to decipher. I’ll use three also-eligibles and three other horses, two of which are prices. #1 TAGORE is a son of Giant’s Causeway who somehow has yet to try turf, and #11 SECOND STREET comes back to the appropriate level after a failed try against much better earlier this month.

The ninth isn’t much easier. It’s the Tropical Park Oaks, and I’m five-deep. Your guess is as good as mine with regard to which horse will be favored, and my top pick is a reluctant one. #2 TAPERGE loves this turf course and makes her second start following a brief freshening. She seems to be getting better with experience, and we may get a decent price.

I’ll take a stab in the third leg, the Via Borghese. My single is #9 BEAULY, a 4-1 shot last seen running a close-up fourth in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl. She’s run up against some classy distaffers this season, and she gets the services of top-notch rider Luis Saez. This sequence requires a single somewhere, and I’m hoping this one’s back class carries her through.

I’m three-deep in the final leg, the Tropical Park Derby. I’m throwing out runners exiting Aqueduct’s Gio Ponti Stakes, as that was a strangely-run race that may not hold water here. My top pick is #3 PROFITEER, who gets some class relief, but I’m also using two big prices. #2 TIZ A SLAM has hinted at major potential this season for Hall of Fame conditioner Roger Attfield, and #10 DANCE STRIKE has done very little wrong in three starts and could be ready for a big effort in his stakes debut.

SANTA ANITA

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 5
R2: 1,4
R3: 3,4,5,6,9,10
R4: 1,4,5,6
R5: 3

48 Bets, $24

I really like this sequence, and my ticket boasts singles on each end of it. We may get reasonable prices on each given the field sizes in those races, so if this ticket hits, we could be in line for a nice score.

My first single is #5 PROUD HEROINE in the opener, a turf sprint coming down the hill. This one has shown plenty of early zip, and “run-off” horses like that tend to settle going this route of ground. Additionally, she’s bred up and down for turf. She’s by Proud Citizen and out of a Medaglia d’Oro mare, which results in a strong 317 turf Tomlinson number. 5-1 is a very fair price, and I think she may be the horse to beat.

I’m not getting cute in the second, a maiden event for 2-year-olds going two turns. #1 PEACE and #4 RESTORING HOPE will take the lion’s share of the betting action, and those are the two I’m using. Both just missed in their last outings, and it would be surprising if one of them didn’t get the job done here.

The third race, though, is much more wide-open. I’m six-deep, and if you want to cover your bases, hitting the “ALL” button isn’t a bad idea. I’m also using most of the field in the fourth, the Grade 3 Robert J. Frankel. I’m four-deep in that six-horse affair, and if there’s a silver lining, it’s that there’s no clear-cut favorite (at least on paper).

I’ll finish with a single in the fifth, a maiden claimer for 2-year-old sprinters. #3 CHARLIE COWDEN has yet to run a bad race around one turn and gets the services of Rafael Bejarano. His matching 61 Beyer Speed Figures in his two one-turn races are far better than anything any other horse in this field has produced, and he should get a bit of a pace to run at. Hopefully, he finishes things off and gets us in line to cash the ticket.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 1,5,6,8,9,10
R7: 9
R8: 4,5,6
R9: 4,9,10,13,14

90 Bets, $45

The cost of this ticket is likely to come down, as two of the five horses I used in the last leg are also-eligibles. With those taken out, it’s a $27 ticket, and given the field sizes, we could be looking at a sequence that pays more than it should.

I thought the hardest leg was the opening one. It’s an optional claimer that drew a field of 11, and the morning line favorite is 3-1 despite being 0-for-his-last-7. That’s #10 SHEER FLATTERY, who I’m using but is in no way an unbeatable favorite. Want to hit the “ALL” button if scratches elsewhere make the ticket cheaper? Go ahead.

The seventh is the Grade 1 American Oaks, and I’m living and dying with #9 NEW MONEY HONEY, who is 7/2 on the morning line but may go off lower than that. Toss the Grade 1 Alabama on dirt and the two races at Keeneland, and you’re left with a horse that has lost just once (in her career debut). She won the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks at this distance, and while I respect stablemate #8 RYMSKA, the only two times they’ve tangled, New Money Honey has dispatched her with relative ease. I’m singling last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner, and if she doesn’t win, I lose.

The eighth is the Grade 3 Midnight Lute, and while I’m using two of the heavyweights, I also had to throw in a longshot. #4 MASOCHISTIC returns for new trainer Bob Baffert, while #5 AMERICANIZE has developed into a strong one-turn horse for Simon Callaghan. Those two will be tough, but there’s a lot of speed signed on, and because of that, I had to use #6 SOLID WAGER, who should be flying late. He won this race last year, and while he’d be outclassed at six furlongs, this race’s extra sixteenth of a mile works to his benefit. Maybe he’s a bit overmatched on numbers, but given the likely race shape, I had to have him on the ticket.

We’ll finish things off with a claimer on the grass. The two also-eligibles will be tough if they draw in, but that’s no sure bet. Because of that, I’m spreading a bit, and hopefully, I’ve gone deep enough.

Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Santa Anita Opening Day (12/26/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

First and foremost, I hope you’re having a great holiday season with the people you love and care about. I’m huddled under several blankets typing this, as your resident handicapper/scribe is a converted Californian who’s no longer used to the winters of upstate New York!

One of the great treats of this time of year is opening day at Santa Anita. That card is coming up Tuesday and boasts nine races, including four of the graded stakes variety. I’ve got two multi-race exotics tickets that cover the entire program, and I’ll go through them all next!

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 9,10
R2: 3,6,9,10,12
R3: 6
R4: 2,3,4,8,10
R5: 4,8

100 Bets, $50

This ticket is built around the horse that will likely be the shortest price of the day. However, despite this “free square,” I think this Pick Five could pay handsomely.

I’m two-deep in the opener, and while I’m using morning line favorite #10 BIG BUZZ, my top pick actually breaks directly to that one’s inside. #9 FENGARI took a step forward in his first start going long, and he showed some early speed that day, which could serve him well in this spot. There doesn’t appear to be much early speed signed on, and top rider Javier Castellano (who’s in town on a one-day trip) could get an ideal trip on or near the lead in a very slowly-paced race. 5-1 seems like a square price given the likely race shape, and I could see the logic in singling him.

I’m spreading in the second race, which features a full field of 2-year-old maidens going seven furlongs. #12 CANDY CORNELL may be favored, as he exits a fast debut race at Del Mar where he was second despite most of his trainer’s runners needing a race or two to get going. He could be talented enough to win, but a bounce off of such an effort is far from impossible. The one to fear could be #9 AMERICAN RULE, a Bob Baffert trainee making his career debut following a string of fast workouts.

The single I mentioned is #6 COLLECTED in the Grade 2 San Antonio. Simply put, he seems better than the rest of this group, and if he runs the type of race he usually runs, he’ll be very difficult to beat. I respect the likes of #1 HOPPERTUNITY and #5 ACCELERATE, but Collected seems like a different kind of animal.

I thought the fourth race was the most difficult in the sequence. This is a maiden race for turf sprinters coming down the hill, and I want coverage. #10 SENSIBLE MYTH is a reasonable favorite, especially given the cushy outside draw and the continued presence of Flavien Prat. With that in mind, there are others that merit consideration. #2 CHICKATINI likely needed her debut and should step forward, #3 LADYBUG has experience and the running style that hints at downhill success, #4 SLICK TRICK is bred up and down for turf and has worked reasonably well, and #8 MAPIT has the pedigree to suggest the switch to turf will be a welcome one.

I’m two-deep in the payoff leg, and I’m not getting cute. I’m using #4 BIG GRAY ROCKET and #8 SPECTRE BOND, and they’ll likely be the top two betting choices. The former has been working well ahead of his first start in 14 months and may not have been too out of place in the Grade 1 Malibu later on in the card, while the latter makes his first start for new trainer Peter Miller and has hinted at potential from the get-go.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 5,8
R7: 1,3,7
R8: 6,8,9
R9: 2,5,8,11

72 Bets, $36

This is a very difficult sequence that, I believe, will pay out a healthy sum. I don’t have a single on this ticket, and hopefully, we can get this home.

The sixth is the Grade 2 Mathis Brothers Mile for 3-year-olds. I’m two-deep, and I think this gets off to a formful start. #5 BOWIES HERO and #8 BIG SCORE are the two likely favorites, and I’m using them both. The absence of Sharp Samurai leaves the door open for one of the horses that have chased him to win this, and I think one of them does.

The seventh is the Grade 1 La Brea for 3-year-old fillies. Many will have this figured as a two-horse race between #3 UNIQUE BELLA and #7 PARADISE WOODS, and I’m using both, but I think it’s unwise to sleep on #1 MISS SUNSET. She’s a seven-furlong specialist with seven wins in 11 lifetime starts, and while the rail draw is a bit of a problem, she’ll likely be more of a price than she should be due to the presence of the other two heavyweights.

The eighth is the Grade 1 Malibu, and while it may bite me in the rear end, I’m against the morning line favorite. #4 FAVORABLE OUTCOME ships west for Chad Brown, but I’ve yet to be floored by him this year. He earned a big number with his last-out win at Aqueduct, but he didn’t beat a ton that day, so I’ll try to beat him, especially at his likely price. I prefer #6 PAVEL (cutting back to a distance he should love), #8 DABSTER (who showed a new dimension last time out and should improve second off the bench), and #9 C Z ROCKET (who’s yet to be beaten and has worked lights-out since arriving at Santa Anita).

We finish with a real mess of a race in the form of a one-mile optional claimer on turf. #11 LAZZAM could be favored, but he wasn’t an automatic “use” for me. He’s had a lot of chances lately, and I almost put forth a ticket that didn’t have him on there. The redeeming factor for him, though, is a lot of early speed that’s signed on, which should lead to a favorable race shape. I’ll also use morning line favorite #5 SPANISH HOMBRE, as well as a few prices. #2 INCREDIBLE LUCK returns to his favorite turf course following a needed run off the bench, and #8 ACCOUNTABILITY has flexibility and boasts a last-out win here back in October.