selections | Andrew Champagne

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/3/17

Posted on August 2, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $997.25

Earlier this week, a number of members of the horse racing media fell victim to a fake story involving prominent sire Tapit and an, um…interesting way of collecting some of the most valuable sperm in the breeding industry. Search for Tapit on Twitter, and many of the pieces will start to come together.

Long story short: If you fell for it, or even for a second considered it to potentially be true…REALLY?!?!?!?!?!

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Turning 1/2 odds into 5/2 odds doesn’t sound so flashy, but doing so in the late double led to a nice score. Carina Mia was odds-on, and when she and Todd Pletcher firster March X Press both won, we turned our $30 investment into a smooth $105. By comparison, had we simply bet that $30 to win on Carina Mia, we’d have cashed out for a mere $46.50.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll keep this pretty simple. I think the fifth is a two-horse race between #2 MAD DOG MATTERS and #5 SENZA TE. I’ll box them in $10 exactas and use them to close out $5 doubles that begin with fourth-race single #2 BECKER’S GALAXY.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Becker’s Galaxy, Race 4
Longshot: Mad Dog Matters, Race 5

Sarah Joyce
For Goodness Sake
Amazing Anthem

SARAH JOYCE: Won two in a row before misfiring last time out over soft ground. Judging by her past clunkers across the pond in races on that kind of turf, she wants it firm, and she’ll be tough if she gets those conditions; FOR GOODNESS SAKE: Beat my top pick two back but got six pounds and a favorable setup that day. That said, her best is good enough to win this; AMAZING ANTHEM: Broke her maiden over hurdles two back. This is a major class test, but she gets a hot rider, and the race seems wide-open for underneath honors behind my top two.

Iwishirish
Desert Affair
Love You Dearly

IWISHIRISH: Took a big step forward off a long layoff downstate. The rail draw isn’t ideal for her late-running style, but there’s plenty of speed signed on and these connections merit respect; DESERT AFFAIR: Did all the dirty work and was nailed on the wire last time out. She’s got a habit of collecting minor awards, but she could sit a dream trip if she can clear some of her inside rivals out of the gate; LOVE YOU DEARLY: Showed speed in her debut at Finger Lakes and ships in for a barn that popped with several similar horses here last summer. She figures to be very prominent early on.

Hogy
Big Rock
Angry Moon

HOGY: Gets the top pick in what struck me as a two-horse race. He’s been running against much better horses for most of his career and exits the Jaipur, where the victorious Disco Partner set a world record; BIG ROCK: Was 2-for-2 at this route last summer but hasn’t won since. The return to this configuration could wake him up; ANGRY MOON: Seems like the main early speed on paper and has a pair of triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures to his credit. However, he hasn’t run since November, and there’s a chance he needs a race to get going. DIRT SELECTIONS: ANGRY MOON, ANYTIME ANYPLACE, HEY JABBER JAW.

Becker’s Galaxy
Rodriguez entry
Jet Black

BECKER’S GALAXY: Drops back in to face state-breds after finishing a distant second behind Small Bear, who hit the board earlier this meet in the Curlin. Danny Gargan’s barn is firing on all cylinders, and this one is a logical wire-to-wire threat; RODRIGUEZ ENTRY: I prefer the returning GOOD LUCK GUS to the off-form ROYAL POSSE. The former ran against stakes competition for most of last year and will make his first start as a gelding in this spot; JET BLACK: Has run well at this route before and was claimed by Robertino Diodoro in his last start, which was his first since February. Improvement is logical at a bit of a price.

Mad Dog Matters
Senza Te
Lady Blessings

MAD DOG MATTERS: Has several strong drills in her worktab ahead of her debut for Rudy Rodriguez, who has snuck several talented 2-year-olds past maiden claiming ranks in the past (including Condo Commando for this ownership group a few years ago). 6-1 would be a very juicy price; SENZA TE: Is trained by Wesley Ward, who’s among the best in the game with first-time starters. The pedigree and workouts are both strong, and she could be ready to go right away; LADY BLESSINGS: Gets the services of Javier Castellano in her debut. This barn’s numbers with debuting runners aren’t great, and neither is the rail draw, but the workouts show that this filly may have some talent.

Avery Maeve
May Flowers
R Lucky Charm

AVERY MAEVE: Gets my reluctant top selection in a race where I’d strongly advise hitting the “ALL” button in multi-race wagers. She’s yet to run a bad race on turf and won at this route last summer; MAY FLOWERS: Ended a long winless drought last time out at Belmont and returns to a turf course she’s had success over in the past. Jose Ortiz stays aboard, and she’s a big price on the morning line; R LUCKY CHARM: Nearly prevailed in an off-the-turf event last time out and may be the main speed from her inside post. This barn can get hot in a hurry, and if she gets loose early, look out. DIRT SELECTIONS: R LUCKY CHARM, HEXAMETER, FIRST APPEAL.

Kahrumana
Danceland
Tamit

KAHRUMANA: Graduated last time out while well in hand, and she hadn’t done much wrong in two starts before that, either. Her flexibility is a plus, and she could still be improving; DANCELAND: Closed well to be second last time out downstate, and her lone win came going a two-turn route of ground. There appears to be some speed to her inside, and the faster they go early, the better this one should like it; TAMIT: Was beaten less than three lengths in a Grade 3 two back and was up against it in a paceless race last time out. She’s another that will benefit from some early zip in front of her. DIRT SELECTIONS: COLORFUL CHARADES, OVERNEGOTIATE, CRIMSON FROST.

Tu Brutus
Scuba
Turco Bravo

TU BRUTUS: Will likely scratch to await Saturday’s Whitney but is too good not to put on top in case the connections call an audible. Anything close to his races two or three back would make this a rout; SCUBA: Was probably the best marathoner in the country late last year but has disappointed in three 2017 outings. This barn has been hot lately, though, and if he finds his form, he’ll be tough; TURCO BRAVO: Won this race last year and should relish a return to this route. Javier Castellano was aboard that day, and he climbs back on here.

Whiskey Seven
Seize
Runaway Posse

WHISKEY SEVEN: Generally runs the same race every time out and has run into some solid fields for this level of late. He gets my top selection in another turf race that doubles as a real handicapping puzzle; SEIZE: Showed speed in his 2017 debut before fading to sixth. He ran a nice race here last year from a tough outside post and could enjoy a return to this route; RUNAWAY POSSE: Merits a look in the event of a pace meltdown, which could happen given the big field that’s signed on. This barn has had success of late, and we may get a price. DIRT SELECTIONS: WHISKEY SEVEN, CURIOUS CAL, POP THE HOOD.

R10

Wish Upon
Scarlett Jo Hansen
Paz the Wine

WISH UPON: Took a huge step forward when second at this level downstate. There’s a chance at a bounce here, but a repeat of that performance could win this wide-open finale; SCARLETT JO HANSEN: Was beaten a nose by my top selection in her last effort, and like my top pick, she took a big step up that day. The question with her is if there’ll be enough early speed to set up for her late kick; PAZ THE WINE: Stretches out to a route after some solid races going shorter at Belmont. She was third in a two-turn race last year at Aqueduct and may have more tactical speed than she’s shown of late. DIRT SELECTIONS: MAJESTIC MAC, SCARLETT JO HANSEN, GOT THE GIST.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/2/17

Posted on August 1, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $922.25

At most places, Wednesday cards consist of shorter, lower-quality fields than you’ll see on weekends. Not so, however, on the 11th day of the Saratoga meet. The races comprising the late Pick Four boast a combined total of 41 betting interests, and that’s not even counting the also-eligibles that could run in the event of a scratch. If you’re playing that sequence, good luck; if you hit, chances are you’ll be rewarded handsomely!

MONDAY’S RESULTS: I thought Winston’s Chance was worth a look in the exotics in the seventh, but at no point did I think he was beating my best bet of the day, Minsky Moment. Unfortunately for my Pick Four ticket, the Finger Lakes shipper got an easy lead and held on. After scratches, we dropped $24.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: If #3 CARINA MIA fires anything close to her best shot in the ninth (the Shine Again Stakes), every other horse is running for second money. I’ll hope to get a smidgeon of value out of that one by singling her in $10 doubles that end with #5 IMPERFECT UNION, #7 MARCH X PRESS, and #9 PURELY LUCKY in the 10th.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Carina Mia, Race 9
Longshot: My Man Jax, Race 5

Invocation
Alcazar de Maram
Unsinkable

INVOCATION: Has not run a bad race over hurdles since coming to North America four back and jogged home by 16 when last seen in My. His consistency gives him an edge; ALCAZAR DE MARAM: Won his seasonal debut on the flat at Parx and merits respect for one of the top steeplechase trainers in the country. He’ll need to beat winners to take this, though, and he hasn’t done that before; UNSINKABLE: Hit an iceberg here last year when beaten 81 lengths as an odds-on favorite. He hasn’t won since, but he was nosed by a next-out winner when last seen at Parx.

Avast Matey
Top Brass
Sound the Horns

AVAST MATEY: Makes his New York debut after spending the first part of his career in Florida. The new surface is a concern, but he’s been working lights-out at Belmont and here ahead of this race and he should be prominent early; TOP BRASS: Drops down in class and is 2-for-2 over fast dirt tracks. These connections must be respected, but the limited worktab off the layoff is a bit of a red flag; SOUND THE HORNS: Looked great when topping winners last out at Presque Isle. This field is likely better than what he beat that day on a synthetic track, but a repeat of that effort likely gets him a piece of it here.

Harlan Punch (MTO)
Astounding
Shamcat

ASTOUNDING: Has found his niche on turf of late. His win two back was sharp, and he followed it up with a solid second when rating off a very slow pace. That day’s winner, Kantune, came back to run well a few days ago; SHAMCAT: Has done very little wrong since going to the grass earlier this year. His lone win to date came going two turns, and he gets such a route this afternoon; CARBON DATA: Ran well to win a key maiden race two back and was likely compromised by a fast pace when favored last out. He shouldn’t have to go nearly as fast early on in this spot. DIRT SELECTIONS: HARLAN PUNCH, GOING STRONG, ASTOUNDING.

Northern Screamer
Lady Paradime
Bon Heir

NORTHERN SCREAMER: Is in career form, having won four in a row heading into this event. This barn hasn’t run many to this point in the meet, but the record says the ones they send out are well-meant; LADY PARADIME: Drops back down to the right level after clunkers against better in each of her last two starts. She was a good second at this route against comparable horses last summer; BON HEIR: Drops down into the straight claiming ranks second off the layoff. She was 8/5 in a stakes race two back, and her best race would be competitive here.

Borsa Vento (MTO)
Let’s Get Loud
My Man Jax

LET’S GET LOUD: Tries two turns for the first time and has the pedigree to love it. He was a decent third behind a pair of next-out winners in his seasonal debut and should improve off that performance; MY MAN JAX: Was second in each of his first two races, which were both turf routes. Those can be tough spots to run well in early on in a horse’s career, and this barn has had a stellar year to this point; NINETY ONE ASSAULT: Gets a two-turn route of ground, and many of his best races have come at that configuration. Hesitation to bet him to win is logical given his prior money-burning ways, but he merits a long look underneath. DIRT SELECTIONS: BORSA VENTO, RIVER DEEP, FASTLANEFRONTMAN.

Devine Union
Tiz Super
Opined

DEVINE UNION: Gets my top pick in a race where I could make a case for most runners. She was so-so as a 2-year-old, but her worktab of late shows she may have taken a big step forward ahead of her 3-year-old debut for powerhouse connections; TIZ SUPER: Faltered when bet in her debut last year, but she came back running last month at Belmont. She was beaten just a length and appears to have come out of that race well judging by the recent drills; OPINED: Ran into some classy runners last year and held her own. She may be favored, but I think she wants more ground than she gets in this spot.

Good Luck Gus (MTO)
Startup Nation
Iron Power

STARTUP NATION: Just missed in a swiftly-run mile race at Belmont in what doubled as his return off a year-long layoff. He won a Grade 2 here in 2014 and has knocked heads with plenty of top turf runners, and there should be plenty of pace to set up for his late kick; IRON POWER: Makes his first start for new trainer Linda Rice and drops down in class. He hasn’t won in a while, but was aggressively-spotted by his previous connections and may appreciate the class relief he gets here; NEVISIAN SKY: Got a perfect setup in his turf debut and stopped the timer in less than 1:20 for the seven-furlong distance. This distance and trip is an unknown, but the faster they go early, the better this one will likely fare. DIRT SELECTIONS: GOOD LUCK GUS, JET BLACK, JOHN’S ISLAND.

Just Got Out (MTO)
Homeland Security
Lucky Long

HOMELAND SECURITY: Won going a mile and a quarter in just her second career start, which is very difficult to do. She’s bred up and down to want to go as long as possible, and she gets my top pick in what I thought was the toughest race of the day to handicap; LUCKY LONG: Could be the only horse in this field with any early zip. She was beaten less than two lengths two back by Morticia, a multiple stakes winner. The blinkers come off, which is often a good sign for a horse with tactical speed; CHURCH SOCIAL: Was a good second at a similar level and route downstate. Rosario getting off this one raises some eyebrows, but Jose Ortiz getting on is intriguing. DIRT SELECTIONS: JUST GOT OUT, HOMELAND SECURITY, FLOWER VALLEY.

Carina Mia
Clipthecouponannie
Going for Broke

CARINA MIA: Boasts a metric ton of back class and gets away from the divisional heavyweights in her first start for Chad Brown. Not having to chase the likes of Songbird and Paulassilverlining should be a big help, and her best race would likely crush this group; CLIPTHECOUPONANNIE: Ran a clunker last time out, but I think you can toss that race. It came over a very tough surface to run on, and she may have bounced off a nice win at this level two back; GOING FOR BROKE: Was second behind Songbird in last year’s Alabama and makes her seasonal debut here. She may want more ground, but her one-turn mile efforts from last year were sharp, and her back class could mean a nice check in her return to the races.

R10

Imperfect Union
Big Expense (MTO)
Purely Lucky

IMPERFECT UNION: Is the only horse in this field with a turf start under her belt. She showed early speed that day for a barn whose horses often need a race to get going. That foundation could be a big help; PURELY LUCKY: Is a half to two stakes winners and has a chance if she’s anywhere close to as precocious as her siblings. She goes out for a barn that excels in turf sprints; MARCH X PRESS: Is a Todd Pletcher trainee with a turf pedigree. He’s a half to Harlan’s Honor, who won a stakes race going short on the sod as a 2-year-old. DIRT SELECTIONS: IMPERFECT UNION, BIG EXPENSE, DATS HER.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/31/17

Posted on July 29, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $946.25

Didn’t we just get here? Monday’s card marks the 10th day of the 40-day Saratoga meet, meaning a quarter of the meet will be over at the conclusion of racing today. Part of Saratoga’s charm is the boutique nature of its meet (note to NYRA: change this at your own peril), but it’s striking how quickly the action comes and goes. Hopefully, you’ve been enjoying yourself and have cashed a few tickets along the way.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: We didn’t hit our cold late double, but we still made money. New York’s Finest prevailed at 5-1 in the finale, J.S. Choice was second in the ninth at 7/2, and we cashed out for $63.25, up $38.25 from our $25 investment.

MONDAY’S PLAY: I’ll play a 50-cent late Pick Four ticket built around my best bet of the day. I’ll use #1 CHARMING CLARE, #5 FROSTY LADY, and #10 MY GOOD VENEZUELA in the sixth, single #6 MINSKY MOMENT in the seventh, include #1 LET IT RIDE MOM, #3 NO MORE BABIES, #5 INDIA MANTUANA, #6 EPPING FOREST, #8 MORTICIA, and #9 LADY ALEXANDRA in the eighth, and end with #1 DAB, #9 I MISS MY FATHER (hi, Dad), #10 MARTINO, and #16 BROOKLYN MAJOR (if he draws in) in the ninth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $36

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Minsky Moment, Race 7
Longshot: Frosty Lady, Race 6

Battlement
Miss Kentucky
True Charm

BATTLEMENT: Is strictly the one to beat if you only consider this filly’s sprint races. She’s pace-dependent, but there figures to be plenty of early zip signed on; MISS KENTUCKY: Has showed ample early speed to this point in her career. She tries turf for the first time, but she’s got the pedigree to do well on the lawn; TRUE CHARM: Has run several clunkers on dirt but gets back to her preferred surface and route in this spot. She ran well here twice last year and could be a decent price. DIRT SELECTIONS: MISS KENTUCKY, PRAY FOR BOURBON, BATTLEMENT.

Itsabigboy (MTO)
Peace Speaker
Now in a Drive

PEACE SPEAKER: Showed huge improvement in his first turf start, getting nailed near the wire in his first-ever route. The post position isn’t ideal, but he seems like the main speed in here and may be tough to run down if he gets comfortable; NOW IN A DRIVE: Was edged by my top pick last time out. A repeat of any of his 2017 races could win this, but given that he’s had plenty of chances of late, I’m hesitant to take low odds on him; MOHICAN: Makes his first start since October, but showed some talent as a 2-year-old. Both winners of his two 2016 turf races won at next asking, and he’d benefit from a faster-than-expected early pace. DIRT SELECTIONS: ITSABIGBOY, TARPON BAY ROAD, PEACE SPEAKER.

Moana
Smile Big
Blenheim Palace

MOANA: Has been running against much better of late and takes a big class drop here. She was last seen running third in the Mother Goose, and she may say “you’re welcome” to Todd Pletcher for finding a softer spot; SMILE BIG: Is a consistent router who always seems to show up. She could be forwardly placed today given the likely race shape, and these connections must be respected; BLENHEIM PALACE: Finally broke through last time out after burning plenty of money in maiden races. She comes back to dirt for her first try against winners, but this turned out to be a pretty tough spot.

Shane’s Jewel
Joopster
Factor This

SHANE’S JEWEL: Showed some speed in his debut at Monmouth, which came over a sloppy track. He was bet a bit that day, and John Servis has excelled dropping horses into the maiden claiming ranks; JOOPSTER: Is a well-bred firster with some flashy works, which makes his debut in a maiden claiming race pretty puzzling. Debuting runners from this barn must be respected; FACTOR THIS: May be bred for turf rather than dirt, but has a series of OK works downstate for a barn that has popped at a price here in the past.

Aktabantay
Starship Wildcat
Ray’swarrior (MTO)

AKTABANTAY: Was in a bit too tough last month, but drops to the level he probably wants here. He reeled off two straight wins against claimers before that race, and there should be plenty of speed signed on to set up for his late-running style; STARSHIP WILDCAT: Tried Grade 3 company earlier this month and drops to a more appropriate level here. He did strong work earlier this year at Gulfstream, including running a close second behind the talented Pay Any Price three back; PADILLA: Makes his first start for Chad Summers and has been competitive throughout a busy campaign. The post isn’t great, but he’s a contender with the right trip. DIRT SELECTIONS: RAY’SWARRIOR, FULL SALUTE, NO HIDING PLACE.

Just Got Out (MTO)
My Good Venezuela
Frosty Lady

MY GOOD VENEZUELA: Drops in for a tag second off a layoff for an aggressive barn. She hasn’t run a bad race going long on turf for this outfit, and she gets my top selection in a race that seems pretty wide-open; FROSTY LADY: Was nearly my top pick and may be the controlling early speed in here. She prevailed against state-breds last time out, is a perfect 2-for-2 over this turf course, and seems like a must-use; CHARMING CLARE: Takes a big class drop in her circuit debut for Mike Maker. The rider is one to get familiar with if you’re not already, and she could be a player if the Midwest form comes east. DIRT SELECTIONS: JUST GOT OUT, MERILORE, FLICK OF AN EYE.

Minsky Moment
Blame the Thief
Winston’s Chance

MINSKY MOMENT: Hasn’t done much wrong in three starts and broke through last time out in the slop at Belmont. He tries winners and two turns for the first time, but this doesn’t seem like a tremendous group, and a repeat of either downstate race should be good enough to win; BLAME THE THIEF: Comes back to dirt after two so-so turf efforts at Belmont. His win three back was pretty good, and he could go early, especially with an aggressive rider on his back; WINSTON’S CHANCE: Has won two in a row going long at Finger Lakes and was a daylight winner in his last effort. It remains to be seen if he can rate, but he merits a look in the exotics at an OK price.

India Mantuana
Morticia
Lady Alexandra

INDIA MANTUANA: Was a close-up third last out at Woodbine in what was a pretty steep cutback in distance. She did have a solid setup that day, but with ample early speed signed on here, she could see a similar trip today; MORTICIA: Has yet to run a bad race on turf, and her only loss in five starts on the lawn to date came to the talented La Coronel. She’s a logical favorite, and it helps that she rated a bit last time out; LADY ALEXANDRA: Makes her first start for Tom Proctor and has shown potential to this point in her career. She’s a stakes-placed filly that could sit a solid stalking trip just off the speed. DIRT SELECTIONS: NO MORE BABIES, LET IT RIDE MOM, LADY ALEXANDRA.

Brooklyn Major
Dab
Martino

BROOKLYN MAJOR: Needs two scratches to draw in and has not races in more than a year, but the most recent work indicates he may be ready to run. This would be his first start for a tag, as well as his first start as a gelding; DAB: Comes back to dirt and adds blinkers, which could be handy given the rail draw. He was an OK third at this route in his debut, and he may get the early lead by default given the relative lack of speed in this field; MARTINO: Has been busy this year, having already made 12 starts as a 3-year-old. His most recent outing was probably his best race to date, and it’s encouraging that Castellano stays aboard.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/28/17

Posted on July 27, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $952

Friday’s feature is the Curlin Stakes for 3-year-olds. In its short history, it’s produced a fair number of fine 3-year-olds, including 2014 Travers winner V.E. Day and 2016 Pennsylvania Derby and Cigar Mile hero Connect. Unfortunately, it falls at a rotten time of the season, and in some instances could wind up taking horses away from races like the Haskell and Jim Dandy (which will both be run this weekend).

My idea: Going forward, move the Curlin to Travers Day, where it would serve a role akin to the Easy Goer on Belmont Day. Doing so may attract up-and-coming 3-year-olds and horses that found the waters of the Haskell or Jim Dandy to be too deep. Furthermore, it would add one more stakes race to Saratoga’s biggest day.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: We scratched out of the early Pick Four when races were moved off the turf.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I found Friday’s card to be a real puzzle, and I’ll focus on the fifth. I’ll keep it simple, as I think first-time starters #1 LOOKING READY and #4 BIG GEMMY are the ones to fear. I’ll box them in $10 exactas and hope they run to their worktabs.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Dovecote, Race 3
Longshot: Atwitzend, Race 10

Mary Pray for Us
Big Mara
Madam Aamoura

MARY PRAY FOR US: Was exceptional against weaker company last time out and was claimed by Michelle Nevin. Jose Ortiz has done stellar work for this barn, and a repeat performance would make this one tough; BIG MARA: Takes a huge drop in class and likely didn’t appreciate the wet tracks she encountered in each of her last two. A race similar to what she was running last fall/winter may be enough to win; MADAM AAMOURA: May be the main speed and is favored on the morning line, but hasn’t won in a year and a half. Her best is competitive, but she may be an underlay at her listed price.

Lightning Buzz
Professor Snape
Noneedtoflatterme

LIGHTNING BUZZ: Took a big step forward second off the layoff last time out. He was second in his debut here last summer, and further improvement could be in the cards; PROFESSOR SNAPE: Was a close-up second over a wet track last time out when sprinting for the first time since his unveiling. Trainer Linda Rice is off to a strong start to the meet; NONEEDTOFLATTERME: Comes back to dirt and takes a big drop in class. His lone win came in his solo dirt sprint to date, and that’s the route he gets here.

Presumptuous (MTO)
Dovecote
Red Dane

DOVECOTE: Rated well off a slow pace last time out, but rallied to be beaten less than two lengths. The distance should not be a problem, and any pace she gets is a plus; RED DANE: Gets Lasix for the first time and has a pedigree that indicates she could love this marathon distance. Her recent turf races are encouraging, and we may get a bit of a price; DOUBLE CAST: Just missed in each of her last two starts, but she had perfect trips on both occasions, and those horses aren’t ones I typically bet back at low odds. DIRT SELECTIONS: PRESUMPTUOUS, DOVECOTE, BRILLIANT MISSY.

Gambler’s Ghost
Will Did It
Diodoro entry

GAMBLER’S GHOST: Takes a huge class drop and figures to be the main speed. The rider switch to Jose Ortiz is a positive one, and it helps that he’s had three top-two finishes in as many local starts; WILL DID IT: Hasn’t won in a while, but drops down in class and has back form that indicates he could win on his best day. With his late kick, he’d benefit from someone dueling with my top pick; DIODORO ENTRY: I prefer SET THE TRAPPE, who found starter allowance company too tough last time out but won two and three back. This is the level he likely wants, and he could sit a nice stalking trip.

Looking Ready
Big Gemmy
Five Star Bunt

LOOKING READY: Has worked very well both here and downstate. Castellano is enticed to ride, and if the morning zip arrives in the afternoon, he’ll be tough; BIG GEMMY: Earned a bullet in his most recent work at Churchill Downs, which isn’t easy for a 2-year-old to do. Other drills indicate that wasn’t a fluke, and he could be a good one if he runs to that worktab; FIVE STAR BUNT: Showed a bit of early interest in his debut. The rail isn’t an ideal place to break from, but experience helps at this stage of the game, and not many of these have run before.

Flattermefabulous
Marnesia Big Girl
Cinder

FLATTERMEFABULOUS: Is my top pick in what I consider to be the toughest race of the day to handicap. Ultimately, I opted for this one, who has substantial back class and may be closer to the pace today than she has been in her most recent starts; MARNESIA BIG GIRL: Comes back to the turf in her first start since January. Her starts here last summer against similar company weren’t bad; CINDER: Exits a swiftly-run allowance race at Ellis Park and won two back at Churchill. This is another who may be up fairly close considering the relative lack of early speed signed on alongside her. DIRT SELECTIONS: RIMANISEMPREFORTE, MARNESIA BIG GIRL, ANDESINE.

Economic Model
Threefiveindia
Shaft of Light

ECONOMIC MODEL: Hasn’t won in a while, but can be forgiven for that given the company he’s kept. There’s no shame in running behind the likes of Drefong and Mor Spirit, and he was second in last year’s King’s Bishop at this route; THREEFIVEINDIA: Hasn’t stepped forward from three to four, but could still be part of a 1-2 finish for trainer Chad Brown. He should sit just off the prominent early pace and have first run on the tiring early leaders; SHAFT OF LIGHT: Merits respect, as does any runner from the red-hot Jorge Navarro barn, but needs the lead and runs in a spot where several others do, too. His best could win, but he may need to overcome a lot to do that.

Dogtown (MTO)
Rocketry
Shamsaan

ROCKETRY: Has shown ample talent in turf marathons despite a tendency to encounter trouble. Any early pace his rivals show will be welcome, as he’ll likely come flying late; SHAMSAAN: Rallied for third last out despite an early pace that was far from kind to closers. He’ll likely be a price, but note his connections have tried stakes company with him in the past, and he could be starting to figure things out; MEMORIES OF PETER: Hasn’t won in nearly two years, but is one of only a few in here to have shown any early zip. If he gets left alone on the lead, he could be tough to run down. DIRT SELECTIONS: DOGTOWN, SHAMSAAN, HOLIDAY BONUS.

Outplay
You’re to Blame
Small Bear

OUTPLAY: Was up close to a scorching hot pace in the Easy Goer, which was won by Travers probable West Coast. He shouldn’t have to go nearly as fast in this spot, which is largely devoid of other early speed; YOU’RE TO BLAME: Was second in the Easy Goer and merits a look. He did get a perfect setup in his last outing, but he’s trained well since then and is a contender here; SMALL BEAR: Is 3-for-4 going a mile or longer and 0-for-4 in shorter events. He gets his preferred trip here, and a repeat of his last race likely gets him a piece of it here.

R10

Digitaldestruction
Atwitzend
Colonel Andy

DIGITALDESTRUCTION: Showed speed and faded against better in his debut earlier this month downstate. He needs a scratch to draw in, but logical improvement would make this gelding formidable; ATWITZEND: Showed early interest going longer in his debut for a barn that doesn’t win often with first-time starters. The blinkers come off and speed rider Paco Lopez comes on; COLONEL ANDY: Has collected many minor checks at this level and seems like a candidate for another one. He was second at this level and route last summer. DIRT SELECTIONS: DAB, SICILIA MIKE, MR. CAT.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/27/17

Posted on July 25, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $952

Even if you aren’t a fan of steeplechase racing, Thursday’s opener is worth your attention. It’s the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick, and among the runners is a horse named Mr. Hot Stuff. Way back in 2009, he ran in the Kentucky Derby. More recently, in 2013, he won this very race at Saratoga.

Four years after that Grade 1 triumph, and eight years after running on thoroughbred racing’s grandest stage, Mr. Hot Stuff will attempt to win another big race…at the age of 11 years young. Some of his Derby opponents have already had offspring win Grade 1 races and retire (most notably, Pioneerof the Nile’s American Pharoah), and yet here’s Mr. Hot Stuff, still competing at a high level over fences. Phenomenal, isn’t it?

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Key horse Finley’sluckycharm was defeated despite a huge Honorable Miss effort, but we still made out OK. We hit the $12.60 exacta five times, and our $25 investment returned a total of $63.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I think Chad Brown’s in line for a big day, and I’ll single two of his entered betting interests in the early Pick Four. I’ll single #10 SILVER SHAKER in the third, punch the “ALL” button in the fourth, include #2 CYRIELLE and #3 PUTTINYOUONTHENEWS in the fifth, and single the entry of #1 RAY’S THE BAR and #1A TRICKED UP in the sixth. Due to the low cost of the ticket, I’ll play it for $1 instead of the normal 50-cent denomination.

TOTAL WAGERED: $16

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Brown entry, Race 6
Longshot: Celtic Chaos, Race 9

Mr. Hot Stuff
Portrade
Schoodic

MR. HOT STUFF: Will attempt the remarkable feat of winning the same Grade 1 steeplechase race four years after he last captured it. He’s got plenty of back form, and he’s one of the top jump horses in the country when he’s right; PORTRADE: Won last year’s Turf Writers Handicap and was a close-up second two back. There’s a lot of speed signed on, but the cutback in distance could help him here; SCHOODIC: Is a “feast or famine” type, but when he’s right, he’s quite good. He won a Grade 2 two back, and the likely race shape should work in his favor.

Fortunate Queen
Bixby Lou
Miss Pearl

FORTUNATE QUEEN: Is my reluctant top pick in the first of many complicated flat races today. She drops in for a tag in her first start for Rudy Rodriguez, and she ran some OK races out west earlier in her career that would make her tough if replicated here; BIXBY LOU: Has burned money as the favorite in her first three starts, and is another dropping in class. Her effort two back was solid, and she could be tough (especially if she solves the gate issues she’s had); MISS PEARL: Merits a look at a price. She was an OK second last time out at Finger Lakes, and she figures to be prominent early on.

Silver Shaker
Anothertequilashot
Summer Falls

SILVER SHAKER: Drops in for a tag off of a pair of maiden special weight efforts that weren’t bad. The outside post is an obstacle, but continued progression would make her formidable in this spot; ANOTHERTEQUILASHOT: Quizzically tried Grade 3 company two back and drops in for a tag for the first time this afternoon. She’s a one-run closer who would benefit from some speed being shown by others early; SUMMER FALLS: Is a European import getting Lasix for the first time, which is a move that must always be respected. Her runs overseas were nothing to write home about, but she may not need to be much to get a piece of it in her American debut. DIRT SELECTIONS: SILVER SHAKER, MADDY’S WAY, AIFE.

Saratoga Mischief
At Guard
Hard Hitter

SARATOGA MISCHIEF: Draw lines through the inner track races, and you have a horse that’s done little wrong over fast dirt tracks. He was second in a Grade 2 here back in 2015 and could get an ideal trip rating just off the abundant early speed; AT GUARD: Figures to be the main speed, especially in his first effort as a gelding. If he recaptures his 2016 form, he could be tough here; HARD HITTER: Could benefit from the slight cutback in distance, and would move up considerably in the event of a wet track.

Cyrielle
Puttinyouonthenews
Sweet Offer

CYRIELLE: Has a worktab not often seen among debuting runners from this barn. She seems very precocious, which would back up the $300,000 purchase price, and offspring of Animal Kingdom have been very impressive so far this year; PUTTINYOUONTHENEWS: Showed speed in her debut last month at Belmont and should improve at second asking. Irad staying aboard is a major plus; SWEET OFFER: Is a full sibling to Grade 1 winner Sidney’s Candy and Grade 3 winner Sweet Swap. Hennig trainees sometimes need a race or two to get going, but this one certainly fits on pedigree. DIRT SELECTIONS: CYRIELLE, TALK SOFTLY, NO DEAL.

Brown entry
Mighty Mo
Baratti (MTO)

BROWN ENTRY: It wouldn’t be shocking to see RAY’S THE BAR and TRICKED UP run 1-2 in some order here. Both have shown immense ability at times, and this looks like a very tough entry to get past in handicapping; MIGHTY MO: Ran against some heavy hitters last year but misfired when back up north last month. He may have needed the race, and the return to two turns should help him; TUSK: Is a deep closer who would benefit immensely from a speed duel up front. He may need more pace than he’ll get, but the late kick he’s shown means he’s worth a look underneath. DIRT SELECTIONS: BARATTI, DEVINE DENTAL, TOOHOTTOEVENSPEAK.

Tom’s d’Etat
Splashtastic
Far From Over

TOM’S D’ETAT: Was extremely impressive in his last-out victory at Churchill. He won at this route by daylight last summer, and stakes races could be in his future with another sharp performance here; SPLASHTASTIC: Recorded a pair of triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures in two downstate defeats this past spring. Based on those numbers, he’ll be tough, but his last two wins both came in perfect-trip efforts on Aqueduct’s quirky inner track; FAR FROM OVER: Has been equal parts brilliant and perplexing in a strange career that’s seen him sidelined for long periods of time. His best race may win this, but those last two clunkers and the expected low odds are a lot for this handicapper to swallow.

Ava’s Kitten
Blue Bahia
Ancient Secret

AVA’S KITTEN: Likely needed her 2017 debut off such a long layoff. Her one-turn turf races are considerably better than her two-turn efforts, and she won at this route last season; BLUE BAHIA: Has won six of her eight turf starts, including a minor stakes race at Monmouth back in May. She has plenty of speed, but does not need the lead, which could make for an ideal trip; ANCIENT SECRET: Has plateaued of late, having gone winless in her last four after reeling off four straight wins to start her career. Her best race could win, but this is her first time going such a short distance, and she may need more ground.

Celtic Chaos
Weekend Hideaway
Fish Trappe Road

CELTIC CHAOS: There’s a LOT of early speed signed on in today’s co-feature, and that could set things up for this stone closer that’s won two in a row. The faster they go early, the more he’ll like it, and we may get a bit of a price; WEEKEND HIDEAWAY: Has won over a million dollars the hard way and is an easy horse to root for. He loves Saratoga, and his usual race likely gets him a big piece of the purse; FISH TRAPPE ROAD: Faces state-bred competition for the first time since 2015. When he’s on his game, this graded stakes winner is very good, and he could appreciate the class relief he gets in this spot.

R10

Fahan Mura
True Love Is Yare
Owesaycanyousee

FAHAN MURA: Drops back into the claiming ranks after an OK third at Parx last time out. That day’s runner-up has since come back to win, and this one’s races against claimers have all been solid; TRUE LOVE IS YARE: Sat a perfect trip on the front end to graduate at second asking in her last effort and tries winners for the first time. She’ll likely have company on the front end, but there’s certainly room for her to improve in her third lifetime start; OWESAYCANYOUSEE: Tried tougher company last time out at Monmouth and drops back into the claiming ranks. Top speed rider Paco Lopez rides this frontrunner for Jersey-based trainer Pat McBurney, who has hit at a 20% clip this year as of this writing. DIRT SELECTIONS: WOUNDWITHHEREYES, OWESAYCANYOUSEE, CINCY BELLE.