BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,815.75

The Jockey Club Gold Cup was drawn Wednesday and will be run Sunday. For a very long time, it was the handicap division’s premier race, and its move to the back end of the Saratoga meet was made, in part, to preserve its top-end status.

To the race’s credit, it drew Whitney winner Arthur’s Ride, as well as familiar faces Tapit Trice, Bright Future, and Disarm. One glaring absence from the Gold Cup, though, is Next. The country’s premier marathoner will bypass the event and instead target a race at Parx next month.

I can understand some aspects of the decision. Next will be an overwhelming favorite in that race, and, for that matter, any other event where he goes an ultra-long distance of ground. However, decisions like that make me appreciate ones like the call made by Ken McPeek, who took a shot with Thorpedo Anna in the Travers and gave fans of the sport a fantastic memory.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Giroovin ran very well having to close into a pace that turned out to be much, much slower than many handicappers (self included) figured it would be. Unfortunately, that was only good enough to finish fourth. After scratches, I dropped $35.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll try to extract some value out of #1 CHATEAU in the eighth. He’ll be bet heavily in the win pools, so I’ll focus on multi-race exotics. He’s a single in $6 doubles that start in the seventh with #4 VINTAGE VINO and #8 ACT OF MUTINY, as well as doubles for that value that end in the ninth with #1 JAA MODE and #6 SKYLER’S STARSHIP. I’ll also use all of these horses in a $2 Pick Three, too.

TOTAL WAGERED: $32.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: She Caught My Eye, Race 2
Longshot: Jackson’s Dixie, Race 5

R1

Jus Too Fly
Correlation
Papa’s Nico Boy

#5 JUS TOO FLY (7/2): Debuted with a second-place finish at Laurel and has several reasons to improve in the Thursday opener. His pedigree says he’ll love the turf, and this barn’s horses tend to get better with experience; #8 CORRELATION (5/2): Set a fast pace in his unveiling at Ellis Park and has since been moved to the barn of Mike Maker. A step forward makes him a player, though I’m a bit skeptical turf is truly what he wants; #9 PAPA’S NICO BOY (8-1): Is another bred to relish the turf and could pose a threat to run well on debut. His bloodlines hint he wants a bit more distance than today’s 5 1/2-furlong route, but the cushy outside post is certainly a plus.

R2

She Caught My Eye
Anotherdaygoneby
Mon Petit Chou

#3 SHE CAUGHT MY EYE (3-1): Drops in for a tag after more than a year of running against allowance foes, and that class advantage is a substantial one. She draws well for Linda Rice second off the bench, and I’m expecting significant improvement from her most recent effort; #2 ANOTHERDAYGONEBY (7/2): Rallied to top weaker foes in a $10,000 claimer last month, and while this is certainly a tougher spot, she’s in good form with four wins in seven starts this season. She’d benefit from a pace meltdown and should be going the right way late; #4 MON PETIT CHOU (6-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while and has run second twice in as many starts at this stand. She’s impossible to endorse on top given the drought, but she does like Saratoga and has some value on the bottom of vertical exotics tickets.

R3

Evaluation
Sweet Anniversary
Nolita

#1 EVALUATION (1-1): Debuted with a solid, professional score earlier this month and faces winners for the first time. That day’s runner-up was an impressive winner on Travers Day, and those two were well, well clear of the rest of the group; #7 SWEET ANNIVERSARY (4-1): Ships to Saratoga after a pair of wins at Finger Lakes. This is certainly a class test, but her two recent works here are sharp and she certainly hasn’t done anything wrong to this point; #5 NOLITA (9/2): Hasn’t run in nearly a year, but put forth a few solid efforts last summer before going to the sidelines. She’s been working steadily for Bill Mott, whose numbers with comebackers are very strong.

R4

Sandborn
Mr Flowers
Hurricane Express

#5 SANDBORN (4-1): Improved last time out to run second at this level and route. He was a bit wide throughout in that event, and further improvement plus a clean trip would give him a big shot in this wide-open maiden claimer; #2 MR FLOWERS (8-1): Ships up from Laurel after running second to a next-out winner at this distance in late-July. He’s got some speed, which should help, and this barn has quietly put together a very strong meet; #1 HURRICANE EXPRESS (5-1): Adds blinkers second off the bench for Chad Brown after finishing a length behind my top pick last time out. Irad Ortiz, Jr., goes elsewhere, but Dylan Davis hops aboard, and he’s enjoyed a head-turning summer while establishing himself as one of the better riders on the New York circuit.

R5

Shesalittle Edgy
Jackson’s Dixie
Malibu Moonshine

#8 SHESALITTLE EDGY (8/5): Exits a win at this level last month and hasn’t run a bad race all season long to this point. I came into this race wanting to go against her, but it’s not like this field is much better than the one she beat last time, and a similar effort likely means a similar outcome; #9 JACKSON’S DIXIE (12-1): Takes a significant drop in class to run against claimers for the first time since December. She’s beaten allowance or optional claiming foes three times since then, and while her last few starts haven’t been great, you don’t have to go back far to find efforts that would give her a big chance in here at a square price; #6 MALIBU MOONSHINE (9/2): Is another taking a considerable class drop off of a few underwhelming efforts. She’s won three stakes races, and while she may be better over wet tracks than fast ones, I think the cutback in distance will help her, and any sort of duel up front could set things up for her late kick.

R6

Contrabandist
T Kraft
Noble Confessor

#7 CONTRABANDIST (6-1): Is a tepid top pick in a mess of a maiden race out of the Wilson chute (unproven 2-year-olds at a quirky route? Send help!!!). He was fourth behind the ultra-impressive Ferocious last time out and has a pedigree that says he wants more distance, which he gets at second asking; #9 T KRAFT (3-1): Did a lot of the dirty work last time out before being reeled in in that race’s final yards. The far outside post is a big problem, but it’s not a disqualifying factor for horses fast enough to clear the field, and this one may fit that bill; #8 NOBLE CONFESSOR (2-1): Was third behind my second choice in his debut and is bred to improve with distance and experience. My question, though, is this: If this one’s so well-meant, why does Todd Pletcher also saddle my top selection in the same race?

R7

Military Road (MTO)
Vintage Vino
Act of Mutiny

#4 VINTAGE VINO (9/2): Ran well to be a close-up second last time out going longer, and that day’s winner came right back to beat first-level allowance foes. We know this distance won’t be too much for him, and I think he’ll be the one they have to hold off late; #8 ACT OF MUTINY (5-1): Has run just once since October, but his two turf races a season ago were both solid. The two-back bullet drill hints that he’s ready to go, and if he is, a repeat of either his two-back or three-back efforts would put him right there; #9 INHERENT PROMISE (4-1): Has run four solid races since going to the barn of Lisa Lewis, who doesn’t train many horses but is a very, very capable conditioner. Most recently, he was a close-up second at this level and route in mid-July, and his usual effort gives him a chance in another wide-open turf race.

R8

Flying P entry
Hatch
Charging Aero

FLYING P ENTRY (8/5): #1 CHATEAU has a very simple strategy. He goes to the front and holds on as long as he can, and that works pretty well in races that are otherwise light on early zip. That seems to be the case here, and I think it’s likely he forgets to stop; #3 HATCH (4-1): Makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice, who’s one of the best in the game with new acquisitions. He may not have liked the slop last time out, and a return to the form he showed two starts ago would make him a contender; #9 CHARGING AERO (6-1): Won against similar last time out after jockey Luis Rivera kept him a bit closer to the pace. He doesn’t need the lead, by any means, but I think he’ll sit a stalking trip and have every chance when the real running starts.

R9

Skyler’s Starship
Jaa Mode
Merlin’s Moment

#6 SKYLER’S STARSHIP (9/2): Finished third behind the 1-2 finishers in the Albany two back in the New York Derby, then got a very, very strange ride as a 1/5 favorite and was off the board. I have no idea what happened that day, but I’m willing to give him a pass, and I think he’ll be the one they have to catch; #1 JAA MODE (3-1): Was second last time out at this level going two turns, but draws a tricky rail post in this Wilson chute event. His best race could win, for sure, but I thought his trip last time out was a perfect one, and I don’t love backing short-priced horses who couldn’t turn previous perfect trips into wins; #4 MERLIN’S MOMENT (8-1): Didn’t break well in the New York Derby and had an adventurous trip in a race prior to that one. His early-2024 races, though, weren’t bad at all, and I think he’s got a shot to surprise in a race that, by the way, I truly wish was being run at a two-turn route (more starts in front of fans, please!).

R10

Zulu Kingdom
Without Caution
Reach for the Rose

#7 ZULU KINGDOM (4-1): Makes her US debut for Chad Brown after a first-out stakes score in France. That day’s third-place finisher came back to win, and this one’s August 12th work over the Oklahoma turf course was very sharp. He looks every bit the one to beat in the Grade 3 With Anticipation; #2 WITHOUT CAUTION (7/2): Did everything right in his debut, where he stalked, pounced, and won at odds of 13-1. This barn has cooled off a bit after a scorching start to the meet, but the outfit still has 17 in-the-money finishes in 28 starts and looks live with this one; #6 REACH FOR THE ROSE (5-1): Debuted with a second-place finish in the Royal Palm at Gulfstream, then jogged home well clear in an off-the-turf race out of the chute. Judging by the aggressive debut spot, it’s clear this barn has had high hopes for this colt for quite a while, and he showed the distance won’t be what beats him in his last-out score.

R11

Creditworthy
Time and Tide
Speed Figures

#2 CREDITWORTHY (8/5): Looks strictly the one to beat in the Thursday finale and will likely be a popular multi-race exotics single. He was a fast-closing second in his debut downstate, a race he’d have likely won without having to check on the backstretch; #10 TIME AND TIDE (9/2): Debuts for a very patient outfit that doesn’t win with many first-time starters. However, this colt has been working up a storm in the mornings, and he’s bred to be a very strong turf horse. Flavien Prat sees fit to ride, and as far as alternatives to a heavy favorite go, there’s plenty to like here; #6 SPEED FIGURES (5-1): Showed speed in his debut, which came in an off-the-turf event at the beginning of the month. The presence of broodmare sire Candy Ride says he may be better on turf than dirt, and the recent bullet drill across the street indicates a step forward could be in the offing.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,850.75

It’s been a bit since I wrote about a problem in hopes someone in the industry who has the power to do something about it reads my content. Wednesday, unfortunately, is one of those days.

If you get your past performances from TwinSpires or Brisnet, their forms do not include the complete race histories for some steeplechase horses that have raced at certain overseas venues. If you’re handicapping races like today’s opener by using these materials, that means you need to cross-check multiple different data sources to get all of the relevant information.

It’s pretty ridiculous to have to jump through these hoops, and this is not the first time it’s happened at the meet. Brisnet PP’s for Jonathan Sheppard favorite Zarak the Brave, for instance, were incomplete every time he was entered throughout the summer. I only found that out early because an old friend/a heck of a writer and editor reached out and let me know what I saw wasn’t the full story.

Perhaps it’s overly idealistic of me to believe this, but anything that’s a barrier to players having access to what they need should not exist. Brisnet, please fix this by the time next summer’s Saratoga meet rolls around.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: I scratched out of most of my action, but longshot She Takes Cash gave me a big thrill in the seventh, when she hit the top of the stretch in front. Unfortunately, she faded to fourth and I dropped $16.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: We’ll head to the fourth, which I think is very heavy on early speed. I want a closer, and I’m betting #6 GIROOVIN. I’ll have a $30 win ticket on that one, and he’ll start $5 doubles that end with #8 ENGLISH CASTLE and #11 FILM ACADEMY in the fifth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Thankfully, Race 6
Longshot: Giroovin, Race 4

R1

Hold Hard
Kitten Around
Little Trilby

#7 HOLD HARD (3-1): Comes into the Michael Walsh off of back-to-back victories, and the most recent win has aged well. That race has produced three next-out winners, and it sure seems like this one is coming into his own as a 5-year-old; #5 KITTEN AROUND (6-1): Topped winners in a handicap event last month at Colonial, and that day’s third-place finisher won at next asking. Keri Brion has enjoyed plenty of success at this stand, and I think her barn is live here; #6 LITTLE TRILBY (5-1): Makes his U.S. debut after an easy score in Ireland where he won by 11 lengths. I’m not sure what he beat that day, but he looked pretty sharp doing it, and he gets weight from several rivals in his first stateside start.

R2

Reserve Currency
Fromanothamutha
Sun Thunder

#6 RESERVE CURRENCY (3-1): Has won two in a row and three of his last four, including a last-out score at this route. He won as much the best that day, and when Mike Maker gets horses going the right way, they tend to stay there; #2 FROMANOTHAMUTHA (9/2): Was second in an off-the-turf event at this level and route a few weeks ago and looks like the main speed in here. While he’s not exactly a “win-type,” with four wins and nine seconds, he generally runs the same race every time and may be the one to catch; #4 SUN THUNDER (2-1): Ran in last year’s Kentucky Derby, but has spent most of this year burning money in first-level allowance races like this one. His best race gives him a chance to break through, I suppose, but the likely price on this 1-for-13 runner hits me as a considerable underlay.

R3

Big Ego
Concorde Spirit
Stormy’s Dreaming

#3 BIG EGO (7/2): Steps up in class for Linda Rice first off the claim, and she’s known to be aggressive with new acquisitions she likes. He was last seen running second at this route in June, and of the horses that have gone this far before, he’s the only one that’s shown any early speed; #8 CONCORDE SPIRIT (9/2): Stretches out after two sprints, and while the post position isn’t ideal, his pedigree says he’ll love the added ground. If Junior Alvarado can work out a trip, he may be the one to hold off late; #2 STORMY’S DREAMING (8-1): Is another stretching out, but Flavien Prat shows up to ride for a small barn, and that’s always encouraging. His plodding style hints the extra quarter-mile may suit him, and he’ll likely offer some value at a bit of a price.

R4

Giroovin
Poppy’s Pride
Cees Get Degrees

#6 GIROOVIN (8-1): Is a pace play for me as a closer in a race full of horses that seem determined to make the lead early on. The faster they go early, the better this one’s chances figure to be, and I think this race has “meltdown” written all over it; #9 POPPY’S PRIDE (4-1): Has been running against better groups than this one and exits a third-place finish against starter allowance foes. That day’s winner is a pretty nice sprinter, and of the front-running types, this is the one I most prefer; #2 CEES GET DEGREES (7/2): Is one of the most well-traveled horses in racing, with 34 starts and eight wins in tracks across eight states to this point. He drops back to the $32,000 claiming level here, and his last start for this tag was a wire-to-wire win at Aqueduct in February.

R5

English Castle
Film Academy
Outtawaterbury

#8 ENGLISH CASTLE (5/2): Goes first off the claim for Saffie Joseph and also makes his first start following racing’s ultimate equipment change. His first try as a gelding comes against a group that seems less than stellar for the level, and logical improvement would make him strictly the one to beat; #11 FILM ACADEMY (9/2): Needs a scratch to run but merits respect if he draws in off the AE list. This would be his first start for a tag, and while he’s had some gate issues in most of his races, it’s not like he’s performed terribly after those starts; #6 OUTTAWATERBURY (10-1): Had no pace to run at last time out in his first start at this level. He was still a decent fourth that day (only beaten a nose for third), and he’d benefit from some of his rivals jockeying for position early on.

R6

Thankfully
Episode
Miss C Banker

#11 THANKFULLY (2-1): Needs a scratch to run but figures to be a major player if she draws in. Her debut in Florida was a solid race. That came on dirt, but her bottom-side pedigree hints that it’s turf she wants, and any sort of a move forward would make her a handful; #5 EPISODE (6-1): May finally get to run on turf in her fifth lifetime start. Her two tries on synthetic weren’t bad, and her record looks much better if you toss her two-back clunker (where absolutely nothing went right); #7 MISS C BANKER (3-1): May be favored if my top pick doesn’t draw in, but while she ran a hard-luck second at this level and route last time out, I have some doubts. She had a perfect trip on an easy lead that day and couldn’t get the job done, and I just don’t like betting horses like this at short prices off of ideal journeys that didn’t lead to wins.

R7

Scoring Chance
Athena Beach
Maggie T

#2 SCORING CHANCE (8-1): Has a record that looks far better if you draw a line through her December 29th clunker (after which she was off for several months). Do that and you have a horse with two wins in dirt sprints who attracts Flavien Prat and should get an ideal setup as a closer in a race with lots of early speed; #5 ATHENA BEACH (3-1): Ran well to be second last time out in an optional claimer won by a next-out stakes winner. I thought Jose Gomez rode her very well that day, and he should have her on or near the lead early again here; #1 MAGGIE T (8-1): Never looked like a loser in her last race, which she won by six lengths in wire-to-wire fashion. Yes, she sat a perfect trip that day, but she has a track record of using her tactical speed to get into ideal spots, and for that reason, the rail draw may be an asset in this wide-open event.

R8

Virgin Colada
Reining Flowers
Totally Justified

#2 VIRGIN COLADA (2-1): Came flying late to take her debut last month and has plenty to like in the P.G. Johnson. This Chad Brown-trained daughter of More Than Ready retains Flavien Prat, and that day’s third-place finisher earned her diploma last week; #9 REINING FLOWERS (6-1): Shares some similarities with my top pick in that she rallied in a paceless race earlier this summer. This barn hasn’t sent out many runners this season, but it’s won at an alarming rate and this filly seems well-meant; #7 TOTALLY JUSTIFIED (6-1): Went 0-for-2 in Kentucky to start her career but is bred for turf and finally gets it. She’s a daughter of Justify and a Galileo mare, which is turf top and bottom, and this is a barn that doesn’t ship for frequent flyer miles.

R9

Majulu
Splashy
War Terminatrix

#10 MAJULU (9/2): Dueled throughout in her first turf start before settling for second. That day’s third-place finisher was quite a bit behind the top two, and while this barn has just one winner from 19 starts as of this writing, it also has six seconds, which means horses are running well, just not winning; #4 SPLASHY (7/2): Drops in for a tag and has some back races that look solid. That drop isn’t quite as massive when we’re talking about state-bred races (since it’s a smaller pool of eligible runners), but it’s still a drop, and perhaps that wakes this filly up; #7 WAR TERMINATRIX (20-1): Cuts back to a sprint after a failed two-turn experiment last time out. Her turf sprint effort three back at Monmouth against open maiden claimers wasn’t bad. It’s not a small “if,” since that’s probably her best-ever race, but if she can channel that form, she could absolutely be a factor here at a big price.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,866.75

I’m going to be traveling most of Sunday, so I won’t see some of the card. Even if I was around, though, I likely wouldn’t be playing much because the card seems quite chalky.

This brings up something I hear every year. Many complain when public handicappers pick favorites. I agree with that to a point. If all you’re doing is picking the first, second, and third choices in order most of the time, there’s no skill involved and no reason for an audience to pay attention to you. However, if you give out big prices solely to give out big prices when your true top three is wildly different, that hits me as a bit dishonest (especially when there isn’t much room to expound on why you’re doing it).

There’s a happy medium that I hope my content hits. I treat the Pink Sheet’s pick box as “handicapping 101,” meant moreso for novice horseplayers who go to the track a few times a year, and the addition of ROI’s (published every Wednesday) was a great idea for those interested in tracking that. This section, covering how to convert strong opinions into sound bets, is “handicapping 201.” Judging by the ROI of both sections this meet, I’m doing pretty well.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Prince of Monaco was, like several others I needed on the card, a tough-luck second. None of the auxiliary stuff connected, either, and I dropped $60.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I think the most value on the card comes in the seventh. I’ll have $3 exactas using #6 SHE TAKES CASH and #9 LAKESIDE GETAWAY on top of those two, #1 BUSY MORNING, and #7 ISLAND FOX. I’ll use my top two horses on their own in an additional $3 exacta box, and I’ll also have a $10 win bet on She Takes Cash (who hits me as a significant overlay at or near the 15-1 morning line price).

TOTAL WAGERED: $34.

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Bellacose, Race 1
Longshot: She Takes Cash, Race 7

R1

Bellacose
Accelerating
Carmen’s Candy Jar

#1 BELLACOSE (2-1): Was one of the most visually-impressive winners of the summer when she romped by 10 lengths at first asking early in the meet. I’m not sure what she beat that day, but she couldn’t have looked much better doing it, and I think she’s the one to beat in the Seeking the Ante; #4 ACCELERATING (8/5): Didn’t have it easy in her unveiling, when she had company up top early on. However, she put her rivals away and drew off for a trainer whose horses often get better with experience; #5 CARMEN’S CANDY JAR (2-1): Was probably left with too much to do in the Schuylerville, when she was fourth behind the next-out Adirondack winner. She returns to the state-bred ranks here, and she may be the one they have to hold off late in an opener short on quantity, but long on quality.

R2

Swift Magic
More Therapy
Sounds Like a Plan

#3 SWIFT MAGIC (7/2): Is one of only a few in here with experience, and it came in a race rained off the turf. That day’s runner-up was an impressive winner earlier this week, and this one’s pedigree says he’ll improve with both experience and a switch to the lawn; #6 MORE THERAPY (9/2): Debuts for a barn that finally got off the duck Friday but has run second and third quite a bit. Firsters from this outfit often need a race, but he’s bred up and down for the grass and sports an ultra-impressive turf drill across the street back on July 26th; #12 SOUNDS LIKE A PLAN (6-1): Needs a couple of scratches to draw in but merits respect if he gets to run. He’s kin to a pair of stakes horses, and his dam is a half-sister to Well Armed, who romped in the Dubai World Cup back in his heyday.

R3

Elysian Meadows
Dr. Kraft
Silver Satin

#2 ELYSIAN MEADOWS (4-1): Goes back to the dirt and gets some class relief in this wide-open optional claimer. He hasn’t won since late last year, but he’s spent most of 2024 going against tougher company and has gotten some eventful trips in a few of those races; #4 DR. KRAFT (3-1): Cuts back to seven furlongs after four straight one-mile events. He’s been in front in the stretch in three of them with just one win, and that makes me think this distance will hit him right between the eyes; #5 SILVER SATIN (9/2): Cleared his first-level allowance condition last time out and may be on the improve. I don’t think he beat a ton in that race, but he’s also never been worse than third in five lifetime starts, and one of those outings was a win at this distance downstate.

R4

Spirit of St Louis
City Man
Dakota Gold

#4 SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS (1/2): Will be a heavy favorite in the West Point, and rightfully so. He’s reeled off five straight wins since a near-miss in this race last year, and he’s beaten many of his opponents here in some of those events. His usual effort will make him tough to beat, albeit at a very short price; #2 CITY MAN (3-1): Is the logical alternative to my top pick and clearly loves this turf course. Last year’s West Point winner has three wins and two seconds in six local outings and may have needed his last-out effort, which was his first try since late-October; #1 DAKOTA GOLD (6-1): Has danced in some big dances during his career but has run up against my top pick in each of his last four tries. He’s likely to sit back and make one big late run, and he’d benefit from some competition up front early on.

R5

Pandagate
Doc Sullivan
B D Saints

#4 PANDAGATE (4/5): Returned with a win in the New York Derby and had every right to need that effort. It was his first start since a trip to Dubai for the UAE Derby, which was won by eventual Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Forever Young, and any sort of step forward would make him a very formidable favorite in the Albany; #6 DOC SULLIVAN (8/5): Gave my top pick a test last time out and finished less than a length behind that rival. I don’t think two turns is his best trip, but he did win the Mike Lee emphatically two starts ago and figures to be prominent from the jump; #3 B D SAINTS (15-1): Finds trouble with aplomb, but he comes back to the dirt and I think that might be his preferred surface. The Mike Maker barn is on fire as of this writing, and given a fair amount of speed signed on, I think this one could clunk up for a piece of it at a big price.

R6

Kay Cup (MTO)
Charlotte’s Heart
Tahila

#4 CHARLOTTE’S HEART (3-1): Hammered for $725,000 last summer and has a bottom-side pedigree that hints she’ll love the turf. She’s a half to fan favorite Casa Creed, and her second dam, Wild Heart Dancing, won several graded stakes races on the lawn. Add in a strong last-out gate drill, and I think this first-time starter is very well-meant; #7 TAHILA (2-1): Had some traffic in her debut, where she still managed to run third. I’m not sure what she ran against that day, but she’s certainly got a right to improve, and while I think her pedigree says she wants two turns, she’s not a bad favorite; #1 SERIOUS LADY (12-1): Didn’t do much running in her debut, but that was in an off-the-turf event for a barn whose debuting runners sometimes need a race to get going. This is the surface she’s meant to run on, Tyler Gaffalione sees fit to ride back, and I think she could be a player and provide value underneath.

R7

Lakeside Getaway
She Takes Cash
Island Fox

#9 LAKESIDE GETAWAY (7/2): Ran very, very well last time out to be second behind Awesome Czech, who came back to win a stakes race at next asking. There’s other speed in here, so she may not have it easy, but I think she’s got a considerable back class edge and is strictly the one to beat; #6 SHE TAKES CASH (15-1): Ran off mid-race last time on the dirt and comes back to her preferred surface here. This is also her first try against state-bred competition since November, which should help, and the morning line price hits me as a significant overlay on a horse that has several reasons to improve; #7 ISLAND FOX (9/2): Took to the turf well last time out, edging a runner that came back to win earlier this season. This is her first try against winners, but another step forward puts her right there (especially given a race shape that could favor her closing kick).

R8

My Mane Squeeze
Dolomite
Caldwell Luvs Gold

#8 MY MANE SQUEEZE (8/5): Gets significant class relief after chasing the likes of Thorpedo Anna and Ways and Means in Grade 1 races. She was most recently third in the Test, and while this hits me as a bit longer than she truly wants, she’s thumped many of these rivals and looms large in the Fleet Indian; #4 DOLOMITE (5-1): Came back running in her 2024 debut and stretches back out to two turns here. Her lone try at the distance was a third-place finish in last year’s Grade 2 Demoiselle. Logical development second off the bench would make her a major player in here; #9 CALDWELL LUVS GOLD (6-1): Was an impressive winner last time out in the New York Oaks at Finger Lakes, a race where I wasn’t sure she wanted two turns. She answered that question well, and she’s a player in here, too (despite the fact that this race came up very, very strong for a $200,000 state-bred event).

R9

Mo Plex
Bostontonian
Under Who’s Radar

#10 MO PLEX (5/2): Wired the field in the Grade 3 Sanford earlier this summer and draws well in the Funny Cide. The outside post is a big, big plus, and while I don’t think the Sanford field was super, this seems like a slightly weaker spot for a horse that’s already shown quality and has every right to keep getting better; #6 BOSTONTONIAN (5-1): Showed some fight in his debut against open company at Churchill Downs, where he dueled through fast fractions and had enough left to get the money. Frankie Dettori sees fit to ride, which is always a plus, and I think he’s live at a bit of a price; #7 UNDER WHO’S RADAR (3-1): Never looked like a loser in his debut, where he was well clear throughout. The two-back work hints that he’s still doing well, though I do think he needs to take another step forward in here off of an effort where I’m not quite sure what he beat.

R10

Silver Skillet
Spinning Colors
Marvelous Maude

#5 SILVER SKILLET (8/5): Has won her two starts this season by a combined total of 11 lengths and exits a powerhouse performance downstate in a similar spot. She does give some weight to the rest of this field, but she’s also 2-for-2 over this turf course and looks every bit like the one to beat in the Yaddo; #1 SPINNING COLORS (8-1): Steps up into stakes competition off of a very strong optional claiming score in her 2024 debut. She’s had some long layoffs, but when she’s right, she’s shown she’s got plenty of talent, and I think she and John Velazquez could sit an ideal stalking trip from the rail; #9 MARVELOUS MAUDE (8-1): Is a one-run closer that’s accomplished plenty in 14 lifetime starts and may be an inflated price here. She definitely wants some speed to chase, and I think she gets that setup here. Add in the Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz, Jr., tag team, and you’ve got a value proposition in the exotics.

R11

Autumn
Capital Spending
In All My Dreams

#8 AUTUMN (5-1): Has made a habit of collecting minor awards but sure looks like the main speed in a wide-open turf route lacking much of it elsewhere. Her last two tries were both very solid, and if she gets comfortable early, today may be graduation day after several near-misses; #2 CAPITAL SPENDING (7/2): Was a fast-closing fourth in her first two-turn try last time out and ran very well to be second going shorter two back. I think the likely price is a bit of an underlay (especially since she’s now chased my top pick twice), but she’ll definitely benefit if another runner goes with that top pick early on; #9 IN ALL MY DREAMS (8-1): Was left with far too much to do last time out and adds blinkers in her third career outing. Her debut saw her run a close-up second after rating behind a pretty slow pace, and a return to that form gives her a sizable chance in the Sunday nightcap.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,926.75

Saturday is Travers Day at Saratoga. I usually reserve this space for some sort of important message, and this year is no different.

I want to extend shoutouts to everyone who participated in Friday’s dunk tank festivities to benefit the Backstretch Employee Service Team. That organization does outstanding work to benefit employees who constitute the backbone of the horse racing industry. BEST offers healthcare clinics, as well as counseling, translation, and transportation services for those who need them, and seeing so many people support yesterday’s fundraiser was really, really cool.

To learn more, visit their website at bestbackstretch.org. If you have a good Travers Day and you’re looking for a way to give back, a donation would certainly check that box.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Brees lost all chance at the start of the third, and I dropped $40.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: Most of my action comes in the 12th, the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens. I respect #8 BOOK’EM DANNO, but #5 PRINCE OF MONACO is a big lean for me. I’ll have a $30 win bet on that one, and I’ll single him to end $5 doubles that start with #4 BABY YODA and #8 CAGLIOSTRO in the 11th (the Grade 1 Forego). In addition, I’ll have $10 win bets on Baby Yoda and fifth-race top pick #9 TWENTY SIX BLACK.

TOTAL WAGERED: $60.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Prince of Monaco, Race 12
Longshot: Baby Yoda, Race 11

R1

Geopolitics
Calling an Audible
Steal the Rhythm

#8 GEOPOLITICS (4/5): Is truly in a now-or-never situation in the Saturday opener, where she’ll almost certainly be a heavy favorite for the sixth time in as many starts. The addition of blinkers, however, has been known to move “pack animals” forward, and that combined with a cushy outside draw against a soft group means I think she’s tough to go against; #1 CALLING AN AUDIBLE (5-1): Has been off four months but has been running well at this level for quite a while. The rider change to Irad Ortiz, Jr., is a big one, and she’s the only one in here that’s shown she can pass others late; #4 STEAL THE RHYTHM (10-1): Debuts for H. James Bond, whose first-time starters usually need a race. However, there are some solid works on her tab, and it’s not like she’d need to be a superhorse to grab a check in her unveiling.

R2

Spirit Prince
Green Light
Main Beach

#4 SPIRIT PRINCE (9/2): Has yet to run a bad race through seven lifetime starts and was last seen running a close-up third in the Kent Stakes at Delaware Park. That was going significantly longer than this event, and the cutback in distance should suit this stalking-type (who goes out for connections that have already won several races this week); #5 GREEN LIGHT (2-1): Drops out of stakes company after two minor awards in ungraded races in Kentucky. His three-back effort was smashing, and while I don’t think he beat much that day over a quirky turf course, the renewed application of Lasix should certainly move him forward; #6 MAIN BEACH (8-1): Came flying late last time out in his first try against winners and was beaten just a length by a solid horse in West Hollywood. Irad Ortiz, Jr., rides back for Chad Brown, and he may have some room to improve given his relative inexperience.

R3

Strapped (MTO)
Topic Changer
Front Man

#3 TOPIC CHANGER (7/2): Stretches back out to a three-turn distance third off the bench for Mike Maker, whose barn is on fire at the moment. He’s no stranger to going long thanks to several races over fences, and while others in this field may have distance limitations, the 11-furlong trip should pose no problem for this 5-year-old gelding; #5 FRONT MAN (5-1): Hasn’t won in more than a year, but he’s one I think will enjoy the longer journey. His pedigree is all-distance, and while he’s shown a solid turn of foot several times, he’s also shown an ability to be a grinding-type, too, which could help him; #1 LORD FLINTSHIRE (3-1): Is impossible to endorse on top, with just one win in 24 career outings. However, he’s proven to be a fun horse to own, with eight seconds and three thirds, and one of those seconds came going even longer than this route last June at Laurel.

R4

Can’t Hush This
Jace’s Road
Strava

#6 CAN’T HUSH THIS (5/2): Gets a tepid nod in a race out of the Wilson chute, largely due to a strong effort last time out. He was second at Ellis Park last time out, and while Ellis form doesn’t always travel, that track’s one-mile route is run in a similar style to Saratoga’s, and that might help him; #5 JACE’S ROAD (7/2): Makes his first start since the 2023 Kentucky Derby, where he was outclassed by the likes of Mage and Two Phil’s. The long layoff is obviously a concern, but Brad Cox does well with horses coming back off of extended breaks, and first-time Lasix is a big equipment change; #1 STRAVA (6-1): Ran too poorly to be true on the Kentucky Derby undercard and gets Lasix in his return to the optional claiming ranks. The rail draw may not be ideal, but three of his five wins are at this distance and he does have some tactical speed.

R5

Excellent Timing (MTO)
Twenty Six Black
Mischievous Angel

#9 TWENTY SIX BLACK (8-1): Has run well at this route multiple times and comes in off of a sharp, last-to-first score against first-level allowance foes. This may be a tougher group, but he was a close-up second behind Mansa Musa two back, and that one returned to run second in the Grade 3 Quick Call; #7 MISCHIEVOUS ANGEL (9/2): Has two wins and a second in three turf sprints to date and was most recently third in a stakes-caliber optional claimer during Belmont week. This barn hasn’t gotten going at this stand, but Flavien Prat rides back when he likely had several options, and I think this one’s a contender; LIVE OAK ENTRY (7/5): Neither #1 BIZ BIZ BUZZ or #1A BRING THEBAND HOME would be stunning, but the morning line prices are definitely underlays. The former hasn’t won in more than a year, the latter has two turf races over a vastly different turf course than this one, and at this entry’s likely price, I’m going elsewhere and searching for value.

R6

Hands of Time
Thunder Roll
States’ Rights

#4 HANDS OF TIME (5/2): Ran well in his debut, when he made up some ground despite a wide trip. He’s worked consistently since then, and I’m expecting an improved performance at second asking for patient connections; #8 THUNDER ROLL (6-1): Showed some speed in his debut going shorter on dirt, but going long on turf is what his pedigree says he wants. He gets wheeled back pretty quickly after his first outing, which is atypical of this outfit, but it sure seems like a vote of confidence given the route that’s involved; #12 STATES’ RIGHTS (3-1): Needs some luck to run here but merits a long look if he does. He closed into a very slow pace last time out and was beaten just a head. If he runs here, he should get more pace to run at, and he’d be a major player despite a less-than-ideal draw.

R7

Tip Top Thomas
C K Wonder
Rookie Card

#3 TIP TOP THOMAS (3-1): Debuts for Todd Pletcher, who’s enlisted Irad Ortiz, Jr., to ride. He comes in off of back-to-back bullet drills and is bred to be a good one. This son of Violence sold for $160,000 last October and is kin to six winners, including multiple stakes winner Gray Attempt; #8 C K WONDER (4-1): Dueled through solid fractions in his debut and faded to fourth. That was over a muddy, sealed track he may not have cared for, though, and the experience edge he has over most of this group could be a big factor; #2 ROOKIE CARD (9/2): Sold for $165,000 at the OBS sale this year, a big number considering sire Adios Charlie’s $3,000 stud fee. He comes in off of a series of excellent workouts, though trainer Danny Gargan’s barn has been ice-cold all summer long to this point.

R8

Bob John Ray (MTO)
Rhetorical
Clear Conscience

#5 RHETORICAL (2-1): Debuted with a bang last month, when he overcame a tough outside post and won as much the best. It’s hard to debut going two turns, but he did it with aplomb and may be a special horse on the rise in this first-level allowance; #4 CLEAR CONSCIENCE (5-1): Gets a big trainer change to Mark Casse after back-to-back seconds at this level. He’s beaten several of today’s opponents in those races, and in addition to the trainer change, a jockey switch has also been made, to Jose Ortiz; #8 SLAPINTHEFACE (6-1): Came up less than a length short despite having to close into a pretty moderate pace last time out. It’s one of several tough breaks for this barn, which is winless at the meet as of this writing but has collected several minor awards.

R9

Measured Time
Silver Knott
Far Bridge

#2 MEASURED TIME (7/5): Cruised home to win the Grade 1 Manhattan in his first stateside start and looms large in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer. The added distance is a question mark, but his pedigree says he should be able to handle it, and if he does, he’s strictly the one to beat; #4 SILVER KNOTT (1-1): Steps up into the Grade 1 ranks after three wins against Grade 2 foes. Most recently, he went wire-to-wire in the Bowling Green last month, and he and jockey Flavien Prat figure to be prominent early; #3 FAR BRIDGE (8-1): Flopped as the favorite in the Grade 2 United Nations at Monmouth, but he had a wide draw that day and may have had an excuse. He won going a mile and a quarter last year, and he’s another horse with a pedigree that says more distance shouldn’t be an issue. 

R10

Scylla
Vahva
Accede

#5 SCYLLA (7/2): Cuts back to seven furlongs for the Grade 1 Ballerina, and I think this distance will fit her like a glove. She most recently ran second behind the classy Adare Manor in the Grade 1 Clement Hirsch at Del Mar, which came after two graded stakes scores in Kentucky; #3 VAHVA (1-1): Has run exceptionally well this season in recording two stakes wins, including the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff. If this race was at Churchill Downs, she’d be a strong lean, but while she could win this, she’s 0-for-2 at Saratoga to this point and her price will be very, very short; #7 ACCEDE (8-1): Won a Grade 2 two back and was a close-up second in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss behind a perfect-trip winner. She’s shown an ability to stalk and pounce, which is a trip that could lead to a strong performance at a bit of a price.

R11

Baby Yoda
Cagliostro
Mullikin

#4 BABY YODA (8-1): Had a very wide trip in the Grade 1 Vanderbilt, so I don’t have an issue tossing that race. Tyler Gaffalione is now aboard, and while 3-1 was a bit tough to swallow last time, he’ll be a much bigger price in the Grade 1 Forego, and I think he’s far more likely to repeat his two-back effort here than he was last time out; #8 CAGLIOSTRO (9/2): Cut back to one turn last time out and won the Hanshin at Churchill Downs. The outside draw is definitely a plus, and despite a sheet full of two-turn routes, I think it’s possible he’s been a one-turn horse all along; #6 MULLIKIN (8/5): Has reeled off three wins in a row, including one in the Grade 2 John Nerud downstate. That race was a fast one, but Aqueduct’s main track played very, very fast late in its meet. He could win, but I don’t think he towers over this bunch, and the likely price hits me as an underlay.

R12

Prince of Monaco
Book’em Danno
Little Ni

#5 PRINCE OF MONACO (4-1): Was a hard-luck second last time out in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens, where he was left with a lot to do and came up a half-length short. Since then, he’s been working, well, like a Bob Baffert trainee, and while the field for the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens is a very good one, I think a clean trip will make this one the one to beat; #8 BOOK’EM DANNO (7/2): Has never been worse than second in eight lifetime starts and is 6-for-6 going seven furlongs or shorter. One of those wins came in the Woody Stephens, where he got the jump on my top pick. The jockey change is a bit puzzling, but it’s not like Javier Castellano is an insane downgrade, either; #11 LITTLE NI (10-1): Makes his first start for Mark Casse after giving my second choice all he could handle in a prep at Monmouth Park. The outside draw is a very big plus, Jose Ortiz winds up in the irons, and we’re likely to get a square price given the big field and some of the heavy hitters that are set to go postward.

R13

Sierra Leone
Dornoch
Fierceness

#2 SIERRA LEONE (7/2): Has made his own trouble multiple times, but he’s a closer in a renewal of the Grade 1 Travers that seems full of early speed. The stretchout to 10 furlongs seems like exactly what he wants, and while he’s far from an easy horse to ride, I think we’ll get a very bettable price on a runner getting exactly what he wants, and that makes him my top pick; #7 DORNOCH (5/2): Has shown an immense amount of fight in two Grade 1 wins. He looked beaten in both the Belmont and the Haskell, but he fended off Mindframe both times. He may need to tap into that resolve again here, as he’ll be tested from the jump by several frontrunners; #8 FIERCENESS (3-1): Is among the top horses in training on his best day, and we’ve seen several dazzling wins in high-level races. Most recently, he topped Sierra Leone in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy. However, he’s yet to string two “A races” together, and the way he came up empty in the Kentucky Derby makes me wonder if he wants this distance. Still, we know he loves Saratoga, and the outside draw certainly doesn’t hurt him.

R14

Treaty Obligation
Six Kings
Houlton

#8 TREATY OBLIGATION (7/2): Drops in for a tag in the Saturday finale, and I’m willing to forgive the last-out effort. Do that, and you’re left with a runner that’s been competitive against much, much better horses. Flavien Prat rides for Chad Brown, and while the post isn’t ideal, his best race crushes these; #6 SIX KINGS (10-1): Exits a failed turf experiment and comes back to dirt in his second start for Joe Sharp. He showed some tactical speed two and three back, and I’m expecting Tyler Gaffalione to be aggressive out of the gate; #4 HOULTON (6-1): Had to deal with a sloppy, sealed track last time out, and for the second time in his career, he didn’t handle such a surface very well. He ran well when second at this route last August, and he’s another that should be on or near the lead early.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,966.75

If you’re a believer in betting on the best story, you’ll get a chance to put your money on one right away Friday. The opener is a 2-year-old race, and the very first horse in the program is Alyeska. She’s owned by Marylou Whitney Stables, who also bred this daughter of Vekoma, and she runs just a few days after the sudden, unexpected passing of Marylou’s husband, John Hendrickson.

Given some strong recent works and a top-class pedigree, I think Alyeska is live, and I’ve picked her second in the pick box. It wouldn’t be surprising if she takes plenty of sentimental money, and if she wins, that instantly becomes one of the best feel-good stories of the meet.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: A decision made by the stewards went my way, though I feel terrible for those who had Camera in yesterday’s seventh because she was almost certainly the best horse. Having said that, Headline Numbers got put up, and $31 in post-scratch bets returned $130.75 ($63 from the first double, $29 from the second double, and $38.75 from a Pick Three).

FRIDAY’S PLAY: Lone speed is very dangerous in turf marathons, and for that reason, I need to bet #6 BREES in the third. In addition to a $22 win bet, I’ll have $6 exactas using him on top of #1 BE LIKE CLINT and #8 HARRY HOOD and $3 “saver” exactas with those two on top of Brees.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Transactional, Race 8
Longshot: Rodriguez entry, Race 11

R1

Stunner
Alyeska
Ice Cream Boat

#8 STUNNER (5/2): Has been working up a storm ahead of her debut and draws a cushy outside post in the Friday opener. She fetched $190,000 at auction last year, and it sure seems like trainer Brad Cox has a good one on his hands here; #1 ALYESKA (9/2): Comes in off of a pair of very impressive four-furlong drills, and while she’s bred to possibly want a bit longer than this distance, she’s flashed plenty of potential. Given the Marylou Whitney silks and the recent passing of John Hendrickson, if this one wins, there won’t be many dry eyes in the house; #4 ICE CREAM BOAT (9/2): Is a half-sister to Grade 1-winning 2-year-old Chocolate Gelato and has been working steadily for Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher. I’m not crazy about Pletcher running two in here, but this one’s bred to be precocious and may be well-meant.

R2

Just Music
Punch the Clock
Enigmatic

#3 JUST MUSIC (5/2): Ran well to be second going two turns last time out and cuts back to the Wilson chute here. She was third in a surprisingly-strong off-the-turf race at this route two back, and she’s part of a strong one-two punch for trainer Linda Rice; #5 PUNCH THE CLOCK (8-1): Wired the field in her debut two back before trying turf last time. She’s got plenty of early speed, which is dangerous at this route, and Tyler Gaffalione sees fit to ride back; #7 ENIGMATIC (7/2): Is another cutting back for the Rice barn, but this one hits me as an underlay. She sat a dream trip up top setting slow fractions last time and was a distant third, five lengths behind my top pick. Maybe the cutback helps, but she shouldn’t be alone up front here.

R3

Paddington (MTO)
Brees
Be Like Clint

#6 BREES (4-1): Sure looks like the main early speed in this three-turn turf marathon, and that’s a very, very good place to be. He ran well to be second at this distance downstate, and Jose Lezcano sees fit to ride back here; #1 BE LIKE CLINT (3-1): Was a close-up third at this route last month and isn’t an awful favorite. I do, however, think he’s a tad better on all-weather, and I’m not sure he’ll get quite as much pace to run at. Add in that closers on the rail need a fair bit to go right, and I think he may be vulnerable; #8 HARRY HOOD (9/2): Has plenty of back class and missed by just a nose in this year’s Grade 2 Pan American at Gulfstream. His last few have been a bit disappointing, though, and I’m wondering if he prefers firmer footing than he’s likely to get here.

R4

Castle Chaos
Rocket Can
Power Seeker

#3 CASTLE CHAOS (3-1): Hasn’t won in a while, but ran well to be fourth in the Grade 1 Met Mile at this route two back and returns to it after a rough trip last time out. He’s got enough speed to sit close early and pounce, and while this isn’t a bad field, he’s been running against much better most of the past year; #1 ROCKET CAN (5/2): Was ninth in last year’s Kentucky Derby and exits a stakes-quality optional claimer last month. He’s definitely good enough to win, but the post position is a question mark since he’s not exactly a “speed” horse; #4 POWER SEEKER (4-1): Wired a field of optional claimers earlier this month and figures to be prominent early. I doubt he’ll sit such a perfect trip for the second start in a row, but he draws well and may be tough to run down if he gets comfortable.

R5

Roses for Debra
Dontlookbackatall
Future Is Now

#4 ROSES FOR DEBRA (6/5): Was probably ridden a bit too overconfidently in the Grade 2 Intercontinental, where she missed by a head as an odds-on favorite. She comes back in the Smart N Fancy as half of a very strong 1-2 punch for trainer Christophe Clement, and this is the one Irad Ortiz, Jr., chose to ride; #1 DONTLOOKBACKATALL (4-1): Doesn’t have a single bad race on her sheet and comes in on a three-race win streak. One of those victories was a score in the Grade 3 Caress, and she’s a major player (especially if her highly-regarded stablemate misfires); #7 FUTURE IS NOW (3-1): Upset my top pick in the Intercontinental and did all the dirty work in the Caress before settling for third. She’s got plenty of early speed and once again figures to be the one they’ll have to catch.

R6

Going for Glory
Inflammabelle
Focus Pocus

#6 GOING FOR GLORY (6-1): Is a tepid top pick in a mess of a maiden claimer solely because she’s the only horse that’s shown any interest in passing others late. She was second in a similar spot earlier this month and may have plenty of, to steal a phrase from a friend, “inexpensive velocity” in front of her; #2 INFLAMMABELLE (6-1): Didn’t break well in a turf experiment last time out and returns to the dirt here. Her two-back effort wasn’t bad, and I think she’s got more gate speed than her rivals, including one that hits me as a vulnerable favorite; #5 FOCUS POCUS (9/5): Drops in for a tag, but while she has excuses for her most recent effort, the two races before that saw her sit perfect trips and be reeled in. Perhaps the drop wakes her up, but this drop within the state-bred ranks isn’t as big as it is against open company, and I think she’ll be overbet.

R7

Yellow (MTO)
Rare Art
Leaner and Meaner

#8 RARE ART (3-1): Showed plenty in her debut, when she rallied from way back to finish third at a price. This barn has had a bunch of seconds and thirds at this stand, but improvement is logical here at second asking and she presents a great chance for the outfit to get off the duck; #10 LEANER AND MEANER (7/2): Debuts for Chad Brown and merits respect despite a less-than-ideal post position. This daughter of Munnings has a very strong female family, with a dam being a full to stakes winner Thrilled and a half to Grade 3-placed turfer Beside Herself; #4 WILD AND FREE (10-1): Is one of two Todd Pletcher trainees and has a right to improve after a wide trip in her debut. Irad Ortiz, Jr., rides back, and she draws a more friendly post that could give her more of a shot.

R8

Transactional
Brigade Commander
Barnstorming

#12 TRANSACTIONAL (2-1): Takes a big drop into a restricted claimer for powerhouse connections and looms large as the one to beat. He likely needed his last-out clunker, which was his first try since late-2022, and I’m expecting a step forward against much weaker opposition than what he ran against last month; #3 BRIGADE COMMANDER (6-1): Is another dropping in class, and he’s going back to the turf for the first time since January. His 2023 races on the grass were solid, and he’s got plenty of tactical speed, which should help him; #7 BARNSTORMING (15-1): Crossed the wire first at a big price last time out, but was disqualified for interference near the wire. His form looks much better if you solely consider his turf races, though, so it’s not like the big effort was a total shock. A similar sort of effort gives him a big chance at a piece of this, and he may be a longshot once again.

R9

Forrest City
Edified
Classify

#3 FORREST CITY (6-1): Is one of several exiting a common race on July 27th, but unlike a few others, he had an excuse. That was his first try since November, and I’m banking on this Bill Mott trainee taking a step forward second off the bench in this wide-open sprint; #8 EDIFIED (5-1): Is one of only a few in here that’s shown an ability to close, and that should help him. He made up quite a bit of ground to be third last time out, and he’ll go third off the bench for Steve Asmussen here; #5 CLASSIFY (6-1): Ships up from Florida for Saffie Joseph, Jr., who’s enjoyed a lot of success at this stand. A mile was probably just a bit too far for him last time, and he’s been working well at Palm Meadows ahead of his trip to upstate New York.

R10

Idiomatic
Randomized
Raging Sea

#4 IDIOMATIC (6/5): Is a head away from winning eight in a row, and the defending champion of her division again looks imposing in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign. She’s gotten a few weird trips of late, but she’s been working up a storm across the street and is the one to beat if she fires her best shot; #5 RANDOMIZED (8/5): Upset my top pick in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps, although it’s fair to say she sat a dream trip on the lead through moderate fractions. I’m expecting my top pick to show some more interest and keep her honest, but if that one takes back, it’s not inconceivable to think this one proves tough to pass; #3 RAGING SEA (9/2): Has won four of her last five and exits a score in the Grade 2 Shuvee that was pretty impressive. This is a tougher field, no doubt, but she’s won three graded stakes in the past nine months and may be coming into career-best form.

R11

Rodriguez entry
Turriga
Delightful Dixie

RODRIGUEZ ENTRY (12-1): Both parts provide value in the right circumstances. If this stays on turf, #1 QUICK POWER NAP has a right to improve after losing all chance at the gate last time out. The addition of Flavien Prat is a big plus in what hits me as a wide-open turf sprint; #9 TURRIGA (6-1): Is another that’s had some gate issues in her last few starts. She was fifth in what hit me as a stronger race for the level last time out, and a repeat of her two-back effort could give her a big shot here; #5 DELIGHTFUL DIXIE (6-1): Won two in a row at Monmouth before a misfire up here last month. Here, she’s reunited with two-back winning rider Paco Lopez, and if she channels her Jersey form, I think she’s another that’s in with a chance (in a race where I’d advise multi-race exotics players to spread, spread, and spread some more).

R12

Strife
DeVaux entry
Silvology

#4 STRIFE (7/2): Was second behind a much-the-best winner here last time out and seems to run into a weaker group in the Friday finale. Joel Rosario rides back for Christophe Clement, and any sort of step forward from what she’s shown to date in her three-start career would make her strictly the one to beat; DEVAUX ENTRY (9/2): I prefer #1 TIME STONE, who hasn’t run since March but seems to be training well ahead of her return. That last-out effort was a solid second at Tampa Bay Downs, and she’s a contender if she’s ready to fire; #12 SILVOLOGY (12-1): Draws an absolutely terrible post but has a pedigree I simply cannot ignore. This daughter of Blame has run on dirt twice, but her bottom-side breeding says it’s turf she wants, and she did show plenty when making up a lot of ground in her unveiling two starts ago.