The Saratogian

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/14/23)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

I’ll use this section today to shout out a very worthy cause. Johnny Taboada, an owner on the Northern California circuit, has an autistic son and names his horses in ways that raise autism awareness (if you’ve seen names like that and wondered about the backstory, there you go).

He’s partnering with the George Noyes Foundation to help run a charity poker tournament Sunday in Sacramento. A $150 donation gets you a seat in the tournament, plus food and access to the lounge area, and if you don’t want to play, you can buy a $50 general admission ticket.

If you’re in the area, come on out. If you’re not and want to support the cause, you can donate to the George Noyes Foundation online.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: For the third straight card going back to my summer seminar stint at Pleasanton, my best bet of the day scratched. As such, we had no action on Opening Day.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: We may scratch out of action again, as two races I’m playing are carded for the turf amidst uncertain weather conditions. I’m going to try to extract some value out of heavy favorite #3 DREAMLIKE in the second race. I’ll play an early Pick Four, and my $1 ticket is as follows: 3 with 4,9 with 4,5 with 1,3,8,9. I’ll also play $5 doubles starting in the second race that use the first half of that Pick Four ticket (Dreamlike in the second, #4 G LAURIE and #9 VENENCIA in the third).

TOTAL WAGERED: $26.

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Dreamlike, Race 2
Longshot: Kid Kreesa, Race 5

R1

Awesome Czech
Poseidon’s Mist
She Takes Cash

#6 AWESOME CZECH (9/2): Has shown a bit more pep in her step during the last two drills, which is enough to make her a tepid top pick in a wide-open Friday opener. Horacio De Paz can win with 2-year-olds, and the barn’s first-call rider, Manny Franco, has the mount; #8 POSEIDON’S MIST (3-1): Has hinted at some precocity in works at Monmouth Park and draws a cushy outside post in her unveiling. There’s some class on the bottom side of this one’s pedigree, and it wouldn’t be a shock if she’s ready to run at first asking; #7 SHE TAKES CASH (6-1): Is kin to a pair of winners, and second dam Fleet Wahine won multiple stakes races. The pedigree screams turf to me, but damsire Stormy Atlantic is, fittingly, a strong off-track influence, which could come in handy if the skies open up.

R2

Dreamlike
Ocasek
Ride Up

#3 DREAMLIKE (3/5): Ran third in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial behind Lord Miles (you may have heard me talk about that race once or twice…) and looms very large in his return to the maiden ranks. His prior races tower over his competition in this spot, and he’ll probably be the shortest-priced favorite of the day; #4 OCASEK (4-1): Ran well when second in his debut before faltering as a 3/5 favorite last time out. That was a weird race where the winner freaked to romp by 19 lengths, so I don’t have much of a problem taking it with a grain of salt; #6 RIDE UP (10-1): Was second in his lone two-turn start to date and seems like one of the main pace factors here. If he gets comfortable beneath returning rider Dylan Davis, he’ll have every chance to hang on for a piece of it at a price.

R3

Venencia
G Laurie
Royalty Interest

#9 VENENCIA (4-1): May have been in a bit too deep last time out in the Grade 2 Wonder Again and returns to the allowance ranks here. Her two-back effort at Keeneland was very impressive, as she rallied into a very slow pace and was beaten less than two lengths. The presence of both Lasix and Flavien Prat should help considerably; #4 G LAURIE (4-1): Hasn’t been out of the barn since late-December but showed plenty of potential as a 2-year-old. She was a troubled-trip third in the Grade 1 Natalma at Woodbine, adds Lasix for her first start of the season, and has every right to have matured in her time off; #6 ROYALTY INTEREST (3-1): Was last of five as a 4/5 favorite in the Penn Oaks last time out and will likely go favored given the connections. However, of the Chad Brown trainees, I prefer my top pick. This one’s debut came back just-OK on speed figures, and her likely price hits me as an underlay.

R4

Accede
Randomized
Sacred Wish

#4 ACCEDE (8/5): Was outclassed in the Grade 1 Acorn, where she was fifth behind the current leader in the 3-year-old filly division. The slight cutback to a mile should help her, and anything close to her two-back effort, when she was third in the Grade 2 Eight Belles, would give her every chance in the Wilton; #5 RANDOMIZED (7/5): Graduated with an impressive 92 Beyer Speed Figure last time out before, like her stablemate, being thumped in the Acorn. She’s got plenty of early speed and should be able to make her own trip from the outside post; #3 SACRED WISH (7/2): Has a record that looks much better if you toss the two-back clunker in the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan. She bounced back with a strong second against older competition at Belmont, and John Velazquez returns to take the mount.

R5

Empire Sky
Holla At Your Boy
Kid Kreesa

#9 EMPIRE SKY (7/2): Is approaching “now or never” territory, as he’s come agonizingly close to earning the diploma a few times now. However, this race doesn’t seem like it’s drawn any world-beaters, and he should be able to sit a perfect stalking trip just off the pace; #1 HOLLA AT YOUR BOY (6-1): Showed ample early speed last time out at Delaware, where he dueled early against open company over soft going. The return to the state-bred ranks could move him forward, and first-time Lasix is a very powerful equipment change; #8 KID KREESA (20-1): May have found a soft spot for the debut and is bred to like the grass. His dam’s two prior foals to race have both won, and that mare is a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 winner King Kreesa, who was a heck of a turf horse.

R6

Ouster (MTO)
Danzigwiththestars
Battle of Normandy

#1 DANZIGWITHTHESTARS (6-1): Returns to upstate New York, where he’s run some of the best races of his career. This is his first start off of a long layoff, Luis Saez has been enlisted to ride, and a repeat of some of his past efforts over this oval would make him a major player; #3 BATTLE OF NORMANDY (4-1): Has burned plenty of money this year in two second-place finishes, both as an odds-on favorite. Those didn’t come against bad fields, and his best race could certainly win this, but he’s becoming a bit tough to trust despite showing plenty of talent as a 2-year-old; #7 SHUTTERS (5/2): Had an eventful trip when fourth downstate in his first start for a new barn. There are lots of layoff lines here, so it’s safe to assume he’s had some issues, but he’s proven going two turns and has shown enough versatility to give John Velazquez options.

R7

No More Talk
Towing
Bustin Shout

#3 NO MORE TALK (2-1): Drops in class and cuts back to six furlongs after finishing third as a 7/5 favorite last time out. He won two and three back, and in doing so beat several rivals that also show up here. A return to his preferred level and distance should suit him, and he looks like a formidable favorite; #9 TOWING (6-1): Has found career-best form as a 6-year-old, as he’s won both of his 2023 starts. He goes first off the claim for Norm Casse here, and he’s got a shot if his Churchill Downs form travels with him; #2 BUSTIN SHOUT (10-1): Hasn’t won in a while, but fits on speed figures and was a decent second last time out at Finger Lakes. He’s also got four top-two finishes in six starts over wet tracks, so he figures to benefit in the event of a Saratoga monsoon (copyright Tom Amello, all rights reserved).

R8

Dot’s Dollar
Happy Farm
Cees Get Degrees

#2 DOT’S DOLLAR (8/5): Has won six of his last 10 starts dating back to early-2022, including his last-out race at Belmont where he topped a solid group of optional claimers. His lone start here was a wire-to-wire score at this level, and his usual race makes him the one to beat in a race filled with easy-to-root-for stalwarts of the NYRA circuit; #4 HAPPY FARM (6-1): Goes first off the claim for a capable outfit here and has two wins and a second in four local starts. Flavien Prat rides back when he likely had some options, and this consistent gelding’s usual effort would get him a piece of this; #3 CEES GET DEGREES (7/2): Tired against a better group last time out at Belmont, but cruised to an easy score two back on the Preakness undercard at Pimlico. He looks like the main speed in this race, and if it rains, an off track won’t bother him, judging by that runaway December score in the slop at Aqueduct.

R9

L Street Lady (MTO)
Love Reigns
Love Appeals

#4 LOVE REIGNS (7/5): Had lots of potential excuses in the Limestone last time out, but overcame an extremely unlucky trip and won despite the trouble. The recent bullet drill at Keeneland seems like a sign she’s doing well, and her best effort sure seems like it would thump that of her rivals in the Coronation Cup; #2 LOVE APPEALS (3-1): Has improved with every start and came alive when cut back to one turn by Christophe Clement. She won by nearly five lengths over a next-out winner, and she may have found what she wants to do; #8 BOSSERATI (8-1): Has won all three starts since being switched to the turf by a powerhouse mid-Atlantic outfit and gets a class test here. She’s led every step of the way in her last two tries and figures to be a prominent pace factor.

R10

Valenzan Day (MTO)
Our Country
Encourage

#8 OUR COUNTRY (10-1): Gets considerable class relief and is my top pick in a race where I honestly don’t have a strong opinion. He hasn’t won since January of 2022, but has spent the last 18 months or so running against much better horses. He’s won over this turf course before, and his back class could carry him through; #11 ENCOURAGE (5-1): Is another class-dropper, and while he has to contend with a terrible post, he’s making his third start off the bench and has races from last summer that stack up well against this group. If he finds the form that inspired bettors to send him off at 5/2 in a $100,000 stakes race last fall, he’ll have every chance; #9 SPLENDID SUMMER (8-1): Adds blinkers in his second start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. Prat going elsewhere is a concern, but underrated turf rider Jose Lezcano hops aboard a runner with enough versatility to win wire-to-wire two back and rally from 10th to second in his lone local try last summer.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/13/23; OPENING DAY)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

It’s been a heck of a 10-month period for me since we last did this. Among other highlights, I’ve gotten engaged, climbed mountains in England, eaten mountains of food in Italy, and benefited from an arrangement that will also see my content published in the New York Daily News.

Now, the work starts. A quick rundown for those new to the party: I’ll be giving out at least one play a day in hopes of growing my mythical $1,000 betting stake. While my picks and analysis will be live on AndrewChampagne.com two days in advance, these won’t be posted until the previous day’s action has concluded (if I could post them further in advance, after all, I’d never lose).

Let’s dive in, shall we?

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I sincerely hope we get the morning line price on #4 OLLIEMYBOY in the fifth. If he doesn’t go favored, that hits me as an overlay. We’ll start things off with a $20 win bet on that one, plus a $10 cold double starting with him and ending with #2 RUNNINGWSCISSORS in the sixth (as a reminder, plays in all turf races assume they stay on the grass).

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Olliemyboy, Race 5
Longshot: Need Some Money, Race 7

R1

Virtual Reality
Sabra Tuff
Bustin Bay

#1 VIRTUAL REALITY (3-1): Got up to win at first asking downstate in late-May and stretches out to two turns here. However, she’s got the pedigree to want every bit of this trip, being by Preakness winner Cloud Computing and out of a mare with stamina-heavy bloodlines; #6 SABRA TUFF (3-1): Has faced nothing but stakes rivals since winning her debut in June of 2022 and should appreciate the class drop. The addition of Lasix also figures to be a plus, and the last-out clunker seems too bad to be true; #5 BUSTIN BAY (5/2): Crushed a field of state-bred rivals last time out at Belmont Park and has won twice in five local outings at the Spa. The hesitation here isn’t the talent, but the two-turn trip. She’s never gone this far before in 32 lifetime starts, so that’s a legitimate concern.

R2

Lady Moscato
Empire Island
Soca

#6 LADY MOSCATO (3-1): Debuted with a decent second at Ellis Park and is one of just two horses in this field with prior experience. She’s a full sister to Grade 1 winner Salty, and the most recent gate work at Churchill indicates she’s bounced out of her unveiling in strong fashion; #2 EMPIRE ISLAND (5/2): Has turned in several flashy works beneath the Twin Spires and figures to be favored. She may have the talent to win this, but her distance-heavy pedigree means she may want much longer than this 5 1/2-furlong trip; #4 SOCA (6-1): Debuts for Todd Pletcher, who must always be respected with first-time starters. She’s a half-sister to Double Thunder, who won a Grade 3 as a 2-year-old, and she attracts Flavien Prat, who’s been riding as well as anyone in the country.

R3

Smokin’ Hot Kitty
Liana B
La Aguililla

#4 SMOKIN’ HOT KITTY (7/2): Came back to form last time out, when she made up lots of ground late and missed by a nose. She earned the diploma at this route last summer, and there’s plenty of speed in this turf sprint to set up for her late kick; #8 LIANA B (5-1): Went wire-to-wire at Monmouth last time out and tries winners for the first time here. Luis Saez, one of the top gate riders anywhere, sees fit to ride, and that could be a tough tandem to beat give this one’s ample early zip; #10 LA AGUILILLA (6-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while, but comes back to the turf and gets Irad Ortiz, Jr., two switches that can’t be ignored. She ran well in a few early-2023 turf sprints and could have options from the outside post.

R4

Salimah
Kalifornia Queen
Sister Otoole

#5 SALIMAH (8/5): Makes her first start since the Grade 1 American Oaks and is half of a Chad Brown duo that looks very tough. She won a classy overnight stakes race before shipping west to Santa Anita, and the return of Lasix in her 4-year-old debut can’t be overlooked; #6 KALIFORNIA QUEEN (4-1): Hasn’t won since June of 2021 but has spent most of that time going up against graded stakes competition. This is just her fifth start since October of 2021, so there have probably been some issues here, but her best effort would give her a big chance; #2 SISTER OTOOLE (6-1): Comes in off of a long layoff, but does so for Graham Motion, who gets horses prepared to go off of long breaks as well as anybody. This distance may be a bit short for her, but there are some classy names in her prior running lines that hint she’s a threat if she’s ready.

R5

Olliemyboy
Dust Devil
Two Thirty Five

#4 OLLIEMYBOY (3-1): Won for a $62,500 tag two starts ago and drops in for less than a third of that price here. He’s been gelded since a last-out clunker at Churchill Downs, and this is an aggressive owner/trainer combination that isn’t afraid to lose horses via the claim box. A repeat of that two-back effort would make him incredibly formidable; #2 DUST DEVIL (4-1): Comes in off of back-to-back second-place finishes downstate against similar company, and he made up a lot of ground late in his most recent outing. Prat sees fit to ride back when he had some options, and he should be going well late; #9 TWO THIRTY FIVE (8-1): Is one of a few 9-year-olds in here, but has shown he still has some gas in the tank. This 13-time winner has proven two-turn form, and his usual effort seems like enough to get a piece of this purse at a bit of a price.

R6

Amundson (MTO)
Runningwscissors
Yarrow

#2 RUNNINGWSCISSORS (8/5): Looms large in his return to state-bred competition after two runs against open company. His sharp win two back saw him earn a career-high 94 Beyer Speed Figure, and while this isn’t a bad group for the level, a similar effort would have the rest of them running for second money; #6 YARROW (4-1): Returns to what’s probably his favorite track, one where he’s never finished worse than third in three local tries. He didn’t get any pace to run at last time going a bit longer, and I think he’ll be much more comfortable here given a decent amount of early speed around him; #7 PHANTOM SMOKE (6-1): Had every right to need his last-out effort given that it was his first try in five months, but he ran a credible third at a bit of a price. The rider switch to Prat is a big one, and he’s another that’s shown an affinity for this turf course in the past.

R7

Need Some Money
Sa Foradada
Condiment Girl

#11 NEED SOME MONEY (8-1): Looks a heck of a lot better if you toss her two-turn efforts. I simply think she’s far better in one-turn races, and that this seven-furlong trip hits her right between the eyes. She should also benefit from a fast pace in front of her and hits me as a live longshot; #5 SA FORADADA (5-1): Has run second on four straight occasions, but gets both blinkers and Irad Ortiz, Jr., here. She makes her second start off a long layoff and has run well going seven furlongs in the past, so there’s plenty to like; #9 CONDIMENT GIRL (7/2): Has proven tough to catch when she gets the early lead, and she seems like the fastest of this bunch out of the gate. Robertino Diodoro can win with new acquisitions, and she fits on speed figures; the question is, can she handle this step up in class out of a $30,000 beaten claimer last month?

R8

My Sea Cottage
Kingfish Stevens
Born a Gambler

#4 MY SEA COTTAGE (7/2): Has done nothing but fire since returning from a long break in December, and has been the victim of a few hard-luck losses downstate. His two wins have come going two turns, and his early speed should be an asset over this inner turf course; #5 KINGFISH STEVENS (5-1): Has made middle moves several times in his past few starts, and I’m guessing that’s part of why blinkers go on today. He was a credible fourth in a stakes race on the Preakness undercard two starts ago, and he’s a win candidate if he turns up more focused in this spot; #2 BORN A GAMBLER (6-1): Won for the first time in a while a couple of weeks ago, when he responded to a drop in class and rallied to get the money. He merits some respect off of the last-out effort, but he’ll have to manage stretching out to two turns and jumping back up the class ladder.

R9

Wine On Tap
Sugar Treat
Saratoga Secret

#7 WINE ON TAP (5/2): Never looked like a loser in her unveiling at Belmont and is a logical favorite in the Grade 3 Schuylerville. The additional furlong should pose no problem for this daughter of Tapit, and a win by her would give Pletcher a seventh Schuylerville win; #11 SUGAR TREAT (6-1): Overcame significant trouble in her debut, where she checked several times, lost ground, and somehow found a way to win. The outside post should give she and Prat smoother sailing, and if she transfers the synthetic form to Saratoga’s dirt track, she could be a major player; #5 SARATOGA SECRET (4-1): Was never seriously troubled in her first-out win at Ellis Park, and that day’s rider, Luis Saez, stays aboard for her first try against winners. Her lone work since that race was sharp, and like his former assistant trainer, D. Wayne Lukas is aiming for his seventh Schuylerville Thursday afternoon.

R10

Stone of Destiny
Here We Go Again
Pimenova

#4 STONE OF DESTINY (9/2): Was last of seven in her debut, but she had an excuse that day given a rough trip. David Donk’s horses often need a race or two to get going, the class drop should help her find her footing, and it’s encouraging that John Velazquez stays aboard in the Opening Day finale; #10 HERE WE GO AGAIN (4-1): Hasn’t raced since November, but returns for a barn that hits at a 29% clip with new acquisitions. She showed some early speed a season ago, and I’m anticipating Saez will have her up close throughout in her 3-year-old debut; #11 PIMENOVA (8-1): Doesn’t draw a spectacular post but should certainly appreciate stretching out to two turns. Her best races in 2022 came at similar routes of ground, and she exits a decent third-place effort going a bit shorter at Belmont in mid-June.

Andrew, Saratoga, and…the New York Daily News???

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

I had a social media strategy leading up to Saratoga loosely planned out. A few days before the meet, you’d get something here laying out the general content plan for the summer, when things would get posted, and a few other quick thoughts before I dove into the opening day past performances.

And then Joe Boyle, the sports editor of The Saratogian, called me and sent everything askew in the best possible way.

The paper’s parent company recently acquired another publication based in New York, he told me. And they wanted to run my stuff.

That publication…is the New York Daily News.

I’m not joking when I say my immediate reaction was, “Joe, I could kiss you.” It’s at that moment Joe was very, very grateful there was 3,000 miles of distance between the two of us.

When I was a kid, the News’s sports section was the best horse racing section in the city. It was anchored by daily selections and analysis from Russ Harris, who is, for my money, the best to ever do it. It also featured the Battle of Saratoga, where three handicappers would throw good-natured barbs at one another for a few paragraphs before giving their best bankroll plays of the day.

Sound familiar, like maybe the content you read on this site each day of the Saratoga meet? Literally everything I do is modeled off of what I read (or, more accurately, devoured) in that publication as a kid learning the game. In its print and digital formats, its content is read by hundreds of thousands of people per day.

This paper, and the people who produced content for it, shaped me as a writer in ways I couldn’t comprehend at that time. The stuff I do is a throwback to those days, and I hope it reaches people like it reached me.

To be able to have my stuff in the space Harris once occupied is an incredible honor and privilege. I’m thankful for the staffs at both papers for bringing everything together. In addition, I’m blessed to have a full-time employer, Catena Media, that allows me to do everything I do for Saratoga on top of my full-time job.

Racing-wise, the last 10 months have been pretty good for me. I just wrapped up an annual stint doing seminars at the Alameda County Fair. I started a new podcast on the On the Wrong Lead network with my friend Josh Rodriguez. There’s some other stuff for Saratoga you’ll read about below that I’m pretty excited about…and you may have heard about Lord Miles at 59-1 in the Wood Memorial.

However, being told that my stuff was going into the New York Daily News? That’s nothing I ever expected, and it’s some of the best freelance-related news I’ve ever gotten.

I’m sure I’ll stop levitating at some point, but for now, leave me be, okay?

The content, and when it’s coming

If you’re a longtime reader of mine, you know the drill. If you’re not, here’s how this’ll work.

My selections and analysis will be up about 36 hours before that day’s first post. This is to mitigate any conflicts with regard to deadlines and different time zones. For example, Thursday’s opening day stuff will be live on Tuesday night, and those will include the first of 40 bankroll sections, wherein I’ll try to turn a profit after starting with $1,000 in mythical money.

Friday’s content goes live on Wednesday night, with the exception of that day’s bankroll blurb, which I’ll post after the previous day’s bet has concluded (if I could post in advance, I’d never lose…). Saturday’s content goes up on Thursday, Sunday’s goes up on Friday, and we go on that timeline until Labor Day.

In addition to the content on my site, I’ve got some other stuff in the works, too. I’ll be working with Paulick Report on a video chronicling a select 2-year-old race at Saratoga each week, and I’m also going to be doing periodic spots on FOX Sports 980 and 95.9 in Albany with Jeff Levack and Tom Goslowski.

I’ll be linking to all of this stuff on social media. In addition to following me on Twitter at @AndrewChampagne (where most of my traffic comes from), I’m also on Instagram (@142winners) and Threads (@142winners).

It’s busy, but it’s always busy, and it’s always worth it. Saratoga’s a special place for so many reasons, and to be able to do what I do every summer is a blessing. Last year, my content on this site, with no paid promotion and only powered by my social media and occasional mentions in The Pink Sheet, got to more than 30,000 hits for the first time. That’s a big number, and it shows that I’ve got some pretty amazing readers who think I’m doing something right.

To those who make it so much fun to do this every summer: Thank you. Thank you VERY much. Now, let’s get to picking some winners!

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (9/5/22; CLOSING DAY)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $949.20

It’s closing day at Saratoga, and that means it’s time for me to say thanks. First of all, thank you to editor Joe Boyle, who edits not just The Pink Sheet, but the main sports sections of The Saratogian and The Troy Record. In an age where deadlines get earlier and earlier and staffs get smaller and smaller, this isn’t easy to do. I’m also grateful for a decision made by Catena Media, which graciously agreed to allow me to continue my duties in this capacity when I got hired by that company in January.

Thank you to the New York Racing Association for another stellar Saratoga season. I’m a tough critic sometimes, but I have high standards because I grew up going to this place, which doubles as one of the last cathedrals in American horse racing. In particular, kudos to the TV talent and crew that put together the FOX Sports broadcasts, which bring Saratoga into my living room 3,000 miles away as effectively as anything possibly could.

Finally, I’d like to thank you, the reader. It’s a privilege to be able to put together content enjoyed by tens of thousands of people each summer. I hope I’ve been able to make you some money. If not, we’ve got one more day to do it!

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Neither horse I used on top in the sixth was anywhere close. I dropped $36.

MONDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to wait until the very last two races of the meet for my final wagers. The more I look at #11 SUE ELLEN MISHKIN in the 12th, the more I like her. I’ll have a $50 win ticket on that one, and I’ll also single her to finish off a $20 cold double that begins with #4 GULFPORT in the 11th (the Grade 1 Hopeful). See you next summer!

TOTAL WAGERED: $70.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Crowding Out, Race 4
Longshot: Night Ops, Race 8

R1

Souffle
Atomic Girl
Kara Para

#15 SOUFFLE: Needs a lot of defections in order to draw in off the AE list but will be formidable if she does. She did everything but win in her debut, where she lost by just a nose, and a repeat of that performance would make her strictly the one to beat; #5 ATOMIC GIRL: Has been training very forwardly ahead of her debut, and she’s bred to love the turf. Her dam was a Grade 3 winner on the lawn, and she sold for $50,000 at auction, which is a lot considering her sire’s stud fee is just $2,500; #1 KARA PARA: Makes her unveiling for a barn whose first-time starters aren’t often cranked-up, but she exits a bullet drill at Belmont and is another who likely wants turf. Offspring of The Factor tend to be turf horses, and she’s one of the ones to consider in a wide-open Closing Day opener.

R2

Atlanta’s Acuna
Blame It On Daddy
Uncle Marty

#5 ATLANTA’S ACUNA: Makes his debut after a string of solid local drills for a trainer whose first-out numbers are very strong. This son of Cross Traffic is out of a stakes-winning mare, one that’s thrown two winners from three foals to race; #6 BLAME IT ON DADDY: Was second behind a runaway winner in his debut last month and retains the riding services of Luis Saez. He’s got every right to move forward, but I can’t help thinking his best running will come going longer given his pedigree; #3 UNCLE MARTY: Debuted going two turns on turf, which isn’t an easy ask. He didn’t run well that day, but this outfit does far better with second-time starters than first-out runners, and his last two workouts hint that he’s come out of his first race in good form.

R3

City Man
Mouillage
Emaraaty

#5 CITY MAN: Ran a career-best race to win the Grade 3 Forbidden Apple early in the meet. His races around two turns seem far better than his one-turn efforts, and his flexibility should give Joel Rosario plenty of options in the Grade 3 Bernard Baruch; #2 MOUILLAGE: Was second in the Grade 3 Canadian Turf at Gulfstream behind Mira Mission, who recently ran second in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer. He’s been working consistently on the Oklahoma track’s turf course, and he’s never missed the board in 12 lifetime starts; #6 EMARAATY: Won a stakes-caliber allowance event here last month to move to 3-for-4 lifetime over this turf course. Flavien Prat rides back for the meet’s leading trainer, and he’d benefit if a pace battle materializes early.

R4

Crowding Out
Unlock (MTO)
Mostly Harmless

#3 CROWDING OUT: Takes a gigantic drop in class after faltering as a 5/2 favorite in a first-level allowance race in mid-August. This barn wheels her back pretty quickly, by their standards, but anything close to her two-back score over an impressive next-out winner would make her a formidable favorite; #8 MOSTLY HARMLESS: Has had plenty of chances and is a maiden running against winners. However, she’s a closer in a race with plenty of early speed, so it wouldn’t shock me if she clunked up for a piece of it at a big price; #1 SMOKIN’ HOT KITTY: Ran fourth against starter allowance foes and drops down to what’s probably the right level. The rail draw is a tricky one, but her two-back win at this route was good and she’s a contender if Flavien Prat can work out a trip.

R5

Aidanike
Backyard Money
She Caught My Eye

#5 AIDANIKE: Hasn’t misfired in her 2022 campaign, which has included three wins from six starts. Unlike many of her rivals, she can sit back and do her best running late, which could come in handy given what figures to be a pretty fast pace set by several of these runners; #6 BACKYARD MONEY: Has run well up here twice this summer and gets Lasix for the first time in this spot. The cutback from seven furlongs to six could help her, and she’s another that doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well; #4 SHE CAUGHT MY EYE: Wired a field of maiden claimers off a long layoff and tries winners for the first time. This is a considerable class test, but the most recent drill was a good one and first-call rider Junior Alvarado retains the mount for Hall of Famer Bill Mott.

R6

Sweet Mystery (MTO)
Schwartz entry
New Ginya

SCHWARTZ ENTRY: I prefer #1 WHATLOVELOOKSLIKE, whose two local efforts this season have been very good. She’s a head away from being 2-for-2 in those starts, and she should get plenty of pace to run at (especially with the presence of barn buddy #1A JUSTOK IS NOT OK); #2 NEW GINYA: Has been very close in her last two tries at this level and has every right to break through here. She could sit close to the pace beneath Dylan Davis, who’s been riding very well since coming back from his way-too-long suspension for his role in an accident earlier in the meet; #7 LOOKIN TO FLY: Beat a group of restricted claimers two back before being left with too much to do last time out. Still, she was beaten less than three lengths by my top selection, and the two-back win rider returns to the saddle here.

R7

Radio Red
Sounds Spooky
Nobilis

#10 RADIO RED: Draws a cushy outside post for his debut in this wide-open baby race for state-breds. His pedigree is very modest, but he’s been training forwardly for this outfit and attracts Joel Rosario, who probably had a few options; #8 SOUNDS SPOOKY: Merits respect based on the connections alone, and this $100,000 yearling purchase exits a solid four-furlong gate drill. All four of this dam’s runners to date are winners, though I wonder if this one maybe wants a bit more ground than this six-furlong trip; #2 NOBILIS: May or may not run, as he’s entered in a spot on Sunday as well. However, he’s been working well for George Weaver prior to his unveiling (whenever that is), and we may get a bit of a price.

R8

Night Ops
American Tattoo
Portos

#3 NIGHT OPS: Drops way down in class after spending most of the last few seasons running against stakes company. This field is a good one for the level, but it doesn’t contain runners like Maxfield and Art Collector, who appear in this one’s running lines, and I think he’ll be the one they have to hold off; #8 AMERICAN TATTOO: Got loose on the lead last time out at Keeneland and responded with one of the best efforts of his career. I’m not sure he’ll be quite so comfortable up top early, but of the likely pace-setters, he’s the one I want most; #7 PORTOS: Cuts back after running fourth to stablemate Fearless in the 1 3/4-mile Birdstone, and at a minimum, you know the 1 1/8-mile journey won’t be what gets him beat. This is another runner getting class relief, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., takes the call for Todd Pletcher.

R9

Bold Victory (MTO)
Digital Software
Reckless Spirit

#1 DIGITAL SOFTWARE: Was protected off the layoff last time and cruised home over a weaker group in a race he may very well have needed. I think he’ll be better second off the bench in this spot, and that he has a big chance to record his third local win in his fourth start over this turf course; #2 RECKLESS SPIRIT: Was headstrong last time when fourth as a 2-1 favorite at this level. That happened here last year, too, and perhaps he prefers Belmont, but his best race would be good enough to beat these; #7 SPLENDID SUMMER: Chased my top pick last time out but may be moving forward in the back half of his 3-year-old campaign. Further improvement makes him a major player here, and the 8-1 morning line price hits me as an overlay (especially given the connections involved).

R10

Cocktail Moments
Jane Grey
More Ammo

#1 COCKTAIL MOMENTS: Is a tepid top pick in the final race out of the Wilson chute this summer. She hasn’t won in a while, but has been running almost exclusively against stakes competition and may have had an excuse last time out given the unlucky trip she had. There’s some speed in this race that could set up for what she wants to do; #3 JANE GREY: Stretches out for Bill Mott after a pair of seconds going shorter. This is her third start off of a long layoff and just the fourth start of her career, so there are plenty of reasons to expect a step forward; #9 MORE AMMO: Almost certainly bounced last time out, when she was nowhere at odds of 2-1 after a big first-out win at Aqueduct. She’s been training well at Monmouth (which is no longer an automatic disqualifying factor for horses from this outfit), and a flashback to her debut performance would put her right there.

R11

Gulfport
Mo Strike
Forte

#4 GULFPORT: Was second in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special, and while I’m not sure checking around the turn cost him a win, he most certainly would’ve been closer to the winner. A cleaner journey would make this Steve Asmussen trainee a handful in the Grade 1 Hopeful; #5 MO STRIKE: Has done nothing wrong to date for Brad Cox, and his two-start career includes a nice win in the Grade 3 Sanford. He ran like a horse that won’t be bothered by more ground, and we may not have seen the best of him yet; #2 FORTE: Was fourth as the 7/5 favorite in the Sanford, but don’t be fooled by the trip notes that say he had no kick. He was moving well late over a very tiring track, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see an improved effort here.

R12

Sue Ellen Mishkin
Cupid’s Heart
Tosconova Beauty

#11 SUE ELLEN MISHKIN: Is very inconsistent, but her best effort would make her the one to beat in the final race of the summer. One of her two wins came here in her debut, so we know she likes this track, and the outside draw is a big plus, too; #1 CUPID’S HEART: Hasn’t run in more than nine months, but gets Lasix for the first time and comes in off of a four-furlong bullet drill over this track. She seems to be doing well ahead of her 2022 debut, and she’s a major player provided she’s ready to run; #2 TOSCONOVA BEAUTY: Has won four of eight career starts and was third in a similar spot a few weeks ago. She gets a huge rider switch to John Velazquez and has enough tactical speed to be sitting in a great spot early on.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (9/4/22)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $985.20

Out of respect for my editor, I’ll focus earlier on in the card than what will likely be my biggest real-life play of the day. Since I can’t, in good conscience, push up against a deadline the day before a holiday, my play cannot be in the Sunday finale, which is set to go off just before 7 pm Eastern time.

Having said that, know that I prefer Mouly to the heavily-favored entry that’s even-money on the morning line. If deadlines were not an object, I’d key Mouly on top of exactas with that entry and Roz, and punch a win bet on my top selection as well.

As an aside, 12 races is just too many. I know NYRA is trying to jam in as many races as they can, for obvious reasons, but I can’t help but recall the 2013 meet, where they did the same thing and burned everyone out very, very early.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: It was a very good day in this section. General Jim kicked off the card with a win at odds of 7/2, and a Pick Five ticket built around getting that one home and beating Up to the Mark achieved both objectives en route to cashing (though not for quite as much as I thought it might rooting it home). In total, the $68 investment returned $272.25.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: Instead of a play in the 12th and final, I’ll focus on the sixth, a fascinating maiden race for 2-year-old fillies. I’ll key #3 ST. BENEDICTS PREP and #4 PURE PAULINE on top of $5 exactas that use those two, #5 STUNNINGLY, and #8 MY BETSY underneath. I’ll also play an additional $3 exacta box using my top two horses.

TOTAL WAGERED: $36.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Wonder Wheel, Race 9
Longshot: Prouver, Race 7

R1

Disarmed
Nobilis
Bobby the Tank

#11 DISARMED: Had horrible racing luck in his debut, when he lost all chance after checking behind a rival. He needs a scratch to draw in off of the AE list, but if he winds up running in the Sunday opener, I think he’ll be very tough to beat; #3 NOBILIS: Has been working very well for trainer George Weaver and looks sharp coming into his unveiling. He sold for just $17,000 at auction last fall, but the drills indicate he may have plenty of potential; #2 BOBBY THE TANK: Showed brief speed on dirt before fading to finish fourth behind a runaway winner. It wouldn’t surprise me if he goes favored here, but this barn doesn’t go dirt-to-turf with 2-year-olds often, so this is a curious move for one that figures to be a short price.

R2

Happy Farm
Greeley and Ben
Hero Tiger

#3 HAPPY FARM: Has won two in a row, including a race at this level and route early in the met. He went from one good barn to another that day, but Flavien Prat sees fit to ride back and could guide him to yet another ideal stalking trip just behind a pretty fast pace; #2 GREELEY AND BEN: Has shown up in the entries several times this summer, and perhaps this is the time we get to see this hard-knocker run. He’s won 20 of 34 career starts, including several stakes races, and anything close to his best would give him a shot; #4 HERO TIGER: Ships in from Monmouth Park, where he most recently ran third in a swiftly-run five-furlong sprint. He has tactical speed, but doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well, which could give Javier Castellano a few options out of the gate.

R3

Vegas Weekend (MTO)
Charge Account
Forever Dreaming

#7 CHARGE ACCOUNT: Exits a win in a similar race last month and goes first off the claim for Mike Maker. The new trainer has enlisted leading rider Irad Ortiz, Jr., to take the mount, and her tactical speed certainly looks like a plus in this event; #4 FOREVER DREAMING: Almost certainly needed her return race off a three-month break, and that race wasn’t on her preferred surface. She gets back to the lawn here, and she flashed enough talent against better horses earlier this year to make me think she’s got a shot here; #2 STATE CROWN: Has won two of her last three and ships in after winning an optional claiming event at Presque Isle. Her two-back clunker is forgivable given the marathon distance, and I think she may come rolling late for a piece of this one.

R4

Cousteau
Critical Threat
Ampersand

#5 COUSTEAU: Takes a huge drop to this restricted, bottom-level claiming event just two starts after winning a starter allowance race at Belmont. He earned a career-high 83 Beyer Speed Figure last time out when second for more than double this tag, and his normal race crushes these; #2 CRITICAL THREAT: Is another dropping in class, and he does so after running third for a $25,000 tag last month. He hasn’t won since January, but Luis Saez sees fit to ride and perhaps he can channel his late-2021 form, which was quite good; #10 AMPERSAND: Romped over non-winners of two last time out and was claimed by Peter Walder. This is a step up in class, but both of his wins have come over this surface and Walder does well with new acquisitions.

R5

Athenry
Sheriff Bianco
Me ’n Sap

#8 ATHENRY: Was a close-up fourth at this route last time out and looks like one of only a few types that can pass others late in this turf sprint. I think he’ll get a pace to rate behind and be able to rally late beneath Manny Franco; #6 SHERIFF BIANCO: Hit the front in the stretch last time before settling for third, a neck behind that day’s winner. The runner-up came back to win at next asking, and of the likely front-runners, the likely favorite hits me as the most likely winner; #4 ME ’N SAP: Was beaten a nose at this route two starts ago, albeit against weaker competition. She likely needs to step up in order to be a win threat, but she’s a type that can close in a race full of speed, which means she can’t be ignored underneath.

R6

Pure Pauline
St. Benedicts Prep
Stunningly

#4 PURE PAULINE: Has been training forwardly ahead of her debut for Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher and is bred to be any kind. This daughter of Curlin is out of a Grade 2 winner, and as stupid as it sounds, when Stonestreet names a runner Pauline (after Stonestreet head Barbara Banke’s mother), the horse in question can usually run; #3 ST. BENEDICTS PREP: Chased freakish debutante Prank last time out and has every right to improve now that that buzzsaw has graduated out of the maiden ranks. A recent five-furlong drill indicates a step forward could be in the offing; #5 STUNNINGLY: Exits a key race at Churchill on the Fourth of July. Winner Naughty Gal won the Grade 2 Adirondack, and that day’s runner-up came back to win at next asking, too. She’s got some speed and is another with potential to build off of her debut.

R7

Free Look
Avant
Prouver

#4 FREE LOOK: Was third behind next-out stakes winner Be Your Best in her debut, where she was taken back to last of 10 before coming with a rally. Flavien Prat sees fit to ride back, and I’m expecting a move forward in her second career start; #9 AVANT: Hammered for $360,000 at auction last summer, and this daughter of Uncle Mo has a world-class bottom-side pedigree. She’s kin to two stakes winners, and her third dam, Bound, is the second dam of champion and stalwart sire Blame; #7 PROUVER: Is by first-crop sire Justify, whose offspring have hit the ground running to this point in the season. Dam Ready to Act won stakes races on turf and dirt, and when Luis Saez rides for this barn, it usually means the horse he’s on is live.

R8

Palm Cottage
Boston Post Road
Piece of My Heart

#6 PALM COTTAGE: Posted a 92 Beyer Speed Figure when romping at Ellis Park in her 2022 debut. Whether or not she runs back to that effort is anyone’s guess, but I don’t necessarily think she’ll have to. This spot doesn’t seem to have come up particularly strong for the level; #4 BOSTON POST ROAD: Just missed in a race out of the Wilson chute last month, and her record looks far better if you ignore the race that came right before a very long layoff. The question is, is this six-furlong distance a bit shorter than she wants to go?; #1 PIECE OF MY HEART: Hasn’t won in a long, long time, but has shown an affinity for clunking up for minor awards. She may very well get the setup to do just that in this spot, which seems to boast plenty of early speed.

R9

Great Workout (MTO)
Dubb entry
Frank’s Art

DUBB ENTRY: I prefer #1A CATCH THAT PARTY, who rallied from 10th to win last time out despite not having much pace to run at. He’s won two of his last three outings, and the loss came in a race where two of the three runners that beat him came back to win at next asking; #5 FRANK’S ART: Showed his debut wasn’t a fluke when he finished a close-up third in his first try against winners. Joel Rosario gets off, but Flavien Prat’s far from a slouch, and he’d benefit from a faster-than-expected early pace; #4 TIMBUKTU: Was marooned on the far outside last time out and surrendered plenty of ground. He gets a better draw here, and a repeat of his two-back effort would give this Brad Cox trainee a chance at a bit of a price.

R10

La Victoria
Succulent
Cape Cod Causeway

#3 LA VICTORIA: Has taken a bunch of money in her career to date (largely because of the connections and dam La Verdad), but she’s found a home going long and nearly broke her maiden off of an 11-month break last time out. She seems like the main speed in this two-turn, inner-turf affair, and if she gets comfortable second off the bench, she could get brave; #2 SUCCULENT: Rallied from last of 12 to be second beaten just a half-length earlier this summer. That was easily a career-best race for her, and whether or not she can replicate that is a valid question, but David Donk has enjoyed a very good meet and could have this one primed; #4 CAPE COD CAUSEWAY: Was second in his local debut earlier this summer at a big price. It’s been a long meet for this barn, but it’s possible this filly’s getting better in the back half of her 3-year-old season, and a repeat of the last-out effort could get her a piece of this easily enough.

R11

Wonder Wheel
Just Cindy
Naughty Gal

#9 WONDER WHEEL: Is a perfect 2-for-2 and hasn’t really been tested yet. Her win in the Debutante at Churchill Downs was exceptional, and she’s put forth several head-turning drills in the mornings ahead of her New York debut in the Grade 1 Spinaway; #5 JUST CINDY: Is also 2-for-2 with a last-out stakes score, as she cruised home in the Grade 3 Schuylerville on Opening Day. The stretch-out to seven furlongs shouldn’t be a problem, and she’s shown she can stalk and pounce, which could be a valuable asset here; #4 NAUGHTY GAL: Won the Grade 3 Adirondack despite lugging out badly turning for home. The field she beat that day was a weaker group, but if Jose Ortiz can keep her on a steadier path, she’ll have a chance to contend at a square price.

R12

Mouly
Dubb entry
Roz

#3 MOULY: Ships up from Gulfstream Park to face New York-breds for the first time. This barn has been firing at this stand, and while the fields she’s run against in Florida haven’t been any great shakes, she may benefit from running against state-bred competition in the Sunday finale; DUBB ENTRY: #1 TOUGH STREET is probably the one the public will bet dropping down in class for the meet’s leading trainer. She’s got plenty of early speed, but it’s also not like she’ll be alone on the front end, and there are legitimate stamina questions. She’s not illogical, but in the words of the late, great Russ Harris, demand value; #10 ROZ: Has a sheet that looks far better if you solely focus on her sprint races. She’s never missed the board in three starts at seven furlongs or shorter, and she’s shown an ability to stalk the pace, which could give her first run turning for home.