The Saratogian | Andrew Champagne

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/17/19)

Posted on July 15, 2019 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $915

One of the perks of my full-time job at the marketing department of a chiropractic college is the ability to receive adjustments from upperclassmen at the on-campus health clinic. My intern got back from a trip to Australia and New Zealand to adjust me for the first time in a few weeks, and he asked me if there were any additional sources of stress in my life.

I thought to myself, “I’m in constant pursuit of Liam Durbin, I’m 0-for-4 in my bankroll section, and I’m repeatedly trying to prove certain people wrong by thriving when they’d rather I fail.” Instead, I simply said, “I’m doing a lot more writing about horse racing at Saratoga this summer.”

I was in no hurry to talk his ear off about my passion, so I didn’t go into much depth. Regardless of whether he initially thought I was being forthcoming or not, though, I think he got the idea when he adjusted my neck and every bone from my skull to my shoulder blades breathed a collective sigh of relief.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Right idea, wrong horse. A closer did indeed win the seventh, but it wasn’t Zonic (third) or Cerretalto (fourth), so my exacta tickets went up in smoke.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I love the 2-year-old races on today’s card, and my action will focus on the fifth. My longshot of the day is #6 PROJECT WHISKEY, and I’ll keep things simple with a $10 win/place bet.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

– – – – –

BEST BET: Talk Veuve to Me, Race 9
LONGSHOT: Project Whiskey, Race 5

Markhan
Renown
Whitman’s Poetry

#3 MARKHAN: Has won three in a row and is undefeated since coming to North America. He seems to be in career form right now, and he looms large as the one to beat in the first steeplechase of the meet; #5 RENOWN: Tossed his rider last time out, but has a solid body of work. Prior to becoming a solid steeplechase horse, he was stakes-placed on the flat and ran third in last year’s John’s Call; #6 WHITMAN’S POETRY: Always seems to fire, but is winless in his last eight starts. He can’t be ignored underneath, but he’s tough to trust on top.

#3 MISSION WRAPITUP: Crushed a field of fellow maidens in his debut and comes in off a very sharp work over this surface. A repeat of his prior race would make him tough in a race named after one of the sport’s good guys; #2 LISTENTOYOURHEART: Led every step of the way in his unveiling and seems like the main speed in here. He boasts the best last-out Beyer Speed Figure in the race and certainly merits respect; #4 SKY OF HOOK: Rallied to win his debut at a price back in May, and in doing so overcame a rough start. He may have learned something from that experience, and it’s encouraging that Luis Saez rides back.

Fully Vested
Pete’s Play Call (MTO)
Discretionary Marq

#9 FULLY VESTED: Took to turf pretty well when second at Monmouth despite a horrible post. He should step forward in his second start off the bench, and he’s displayed plenty of off-track form in the past (which could come in handy here); #7 DISCRETIONARY MARQ: Has come to hand of late, having won four of his last six starts. He came off a long layoff to wire a field at Belmont, and he figures to be prominent early; #4 PAGLIACCI: Topped a field of claimers last time out and makes his first start for new trainer Linda Rice. He could sit a perfect stalking trip here, although the jump up in class is an obstacle. DIRT SELECTIONS: FULLY VESTED, PETE’S PLAY CALL, STORM ADVISORY.

Flat Rate (MTO)
Tricky Magician
Seanow

#12 TRICKY MAGICIAN: Drew terribly for this wide-open event, but does drop in class and should appreciate the two-turn route of ground. Irad Ortiz, Jr., will have his work cut out for him, but this one has hinted at plenty of talent in the past; #3 SEANOW: Broke his maiden here last year and defeated a similar-quality field two back at Belmont. He figures to be the main speed, and he could be dangerous if he’s left alone on the lead; #2 HOPE AGAIN: Rallied to defeat a much weaker group last time out at Monmouth. He’s never missed the board in five career starts and should be moving in the right direction late.

Project Whiskey
Myawaya
Ain’t None Lucky

#6 PROJECT WHISKEY: Comes in from Parx, and it’s always encouraging when an out-of-town trainer brings a jockey in to ride. She’s worked well, and her dam is a half-sister to Ready’s Image, who won a Grade 2 and was second in the Grade 1 Hopeful; #3 MYAWAYA: Goes out for the tandem of Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez and comes in off a big work here last week. Her dam is a half to Grade 2 winner Sharp Humor, and she makes a lot of sense; #2 AIN’T NONE LUCKY: Blew the start in her debut at Laurel, but rallied to finish third behind a talented filly. She could move forward here, and her pedigree says she’d move up over a wet track.

#5 MATZO BELLA: Drops in for a tag after just missing in an allowance event downstate. She’ll likely be flying late, and she hasn’t run a bad race since being claimed by Jason Servis; #2 AVOCADO TOAST: Got nailed at the wire in her first start since February last month. That race came at this level, and she draws favorably in this event; #3 TIPLE: Put it all together last time out in the maiden claiming ranks, where she rallied from way back against a suspect group. She may be putting things together, and this barn is dangerous in turf sprints.

Azrael (MTO)
Border Town
Good Governance

#9 BORDER TOWN: Is one of two in here trained by Chad Brown, and gets my tepid nod in a tough race. He’s been working consistently and is bred to be a good one; #6 GOOD GOVERNANCE: Will likely be favored judging by the morning line and is bred to be a good one. However, there’s a big gap in his works in June, and debuting at two turns isn’t an easy task; #7 EMBELLISHER: Was third in a swiftly-run maiden race at Ellis Park on Independence Day. Speed is dangerous on the inner turf, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he got a perfect trip. DIRT SELECTIONS: AZRAEL, OFF THE RECORD, CORCORAN.

Maiden Beauty
Miss Marcela
Dovey Lovey

#6 MAIDEN BEAUTY: Showed a new dimension when wiring a field of state-breds last month at Belmont. Most importantly, she loves wet tracks, and she may see such a surface in this spot; #5 MISS MARCELA: Comes back to the dirt in her second start for Phil Serpe and merits respect. She won a stakes race earlier this year at Gulfstream and is a contender if she gets back to that form; #3 DOVEY LOVEY: Cuts back in distance and looks a lot better if you draw lines through her route races. She’s run well over a wet track and was third in the Ruthless at Aqueduct this past January.

Talk Veuve to Me
Honor Way
Carrera Cat

#6 TALK VEUVE TO ME: Drops down to the allowance ranks after misfiring in Grade 1 company. Simply put, her best race would thump these, and anything close would still make her very tough; #5 HONOR WAY: Rallied to prevail at Belmont last month and always seems to fire a good shot. Linda Rice has gotten off to a great start this meet, and Jose Ortiz rides back; #2 CARRERA CAT: Has reeled off four wins in a row and gets a major class test. She’ll be flying early; the question is, can she withstand pressure from the likely favorite?

R10

Light in the Sky
Colts Neck entry
Violent Point

#4 LIGHT IN THE SKY: Is bred to be a good one and debuts for the Rice barn. Her dam was a stakes-winner, and she’s already thrown six winners (including 2-year-old stakes-winner Iron Mizz); COLTS NECK ENTRY: #1 STRONGERTHANUKNOW showed speed in her debut, but I prefer #1A SILKY BLUE, who needs some luck to draw in. She fetched $220,000 at auction and is bred to be a strong turf horse; #9 VIOLENT POINT: Was a distant third when favored in her unveiling at Belmont, but she pressed a very fast pace that day and is certainly eligible to improve here.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/14/19)

Posted on July 12, 2019 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $943

It would be foolish not to comment on the death of Kentucky Derby and Travers winner Sea Hero, who passed away a few days ago. If you’ve been to Saratoga at all, you’ve seen the statue immortalizing him in the paddock. It would be misleading to say he was an all-time great, but in 1993, he became the first horse in more than 50 years to pull off the Derby-Travers double. Only two other horses have done it since.

With the racing world’s increased focus on, ahem, “brilliance,” pulling off that double may only get harder as the years go by. Horses simply aren’t bred like they used to be, and a relic of a time period when top-tier horses were campaigned aggressively and could handle it is now gone.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Payne was left with too much to do and could only salvage third, which turned exacta and doubles tickets into confetti. We dropped $25.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll turn my attention to the seventh race, which seems like it’s going to set up for a closer. I’ll play #2 ZONIC and #4 CERRETALTO on top of $3 exactas that use those two, #1 SUDDEN SURPRISE, #7 SHAMROCK KID, and #8 BINKSTER underneath. I’ll also box my top two horses in $2 exactas, which puts me in a better position to score if the race falls apart.

TOTAL WAGERED: $28

– – – – –

BEST BET: Positive Skew, Race 5
LONGSHOT: Bohemian Bourbon, Race 9

Sweet Melania
Lucky Jingle
Sign of the Times

#9 SWEET MELANIA: Gets a very tepid nod in a confounding opener. She has an experience edge over her rivals in this spot, and she’s bred to love the two turns she gets here; #3 LUCKY JINGLE: Hails from a barn whose first-time starters often need a race to get going, but has been working well ahead of her debut. Her 311 turf Tomlinson number is solid, and she may be a price; #8 SIGN OF THE TIMES: Debuted last month going two turns, which isn’t easy for a young 2-year-old. She didn’t do much running that day, but she may have gotten something out of that race.

Keeping the Peace
Elios Milos
Bustin to Be Loved

#3 KEEPING THE PEACE: Tries winners for the first time after a sharp win in May at Monmouth. This barn tends to keep horses on the right track, and he could be tough to catch if he makes the lead; #8 ELIOS MILOS: Likely needed his last effort, which came after a layoff of nearly a year. He ran well twice last year before heading to the sidelines, and a return to that form would make him a contender; #2 BUSTIN TO BE LOVED: Tried pretty deep waters last year as a 2-year-old and drops down sharply in class for this event. Maybe he peaked early, but he’s worked well here and merits a look in the exotics at a price.

Bassman Dave (MTO)
Crack Shot
Wild William

#4 CRACK SHOT: Ran very well when second off of a long layoff last month downstate. He was beaten just a length despite making the lead from his far outside post, and he’ll likely get a much easier trip from this post; #3 WILD WILLIAM: Has shown speed in his career and ran reasonably well here in two starts last summer. Luis Saez riding back is certainly encouraging; #9 ADIOS AMIGOS: Rallied a bit last time out and will likely take money here. The post is tough, but top turf rider Leparoux does get the call. DIRT SELECTIONS: BASSMAN DAVE, WILD BOAR, BULWARK.

No Salt
South Africa
Blame the Cake

#8 NO SALT: Fetched $200,000 at auction last summer and has been working well here for Bill Mott, who’s already scored with one 2-year-old this meet as of this writing. The outside draw could allow for some flexibility, and he sure looks like a runner; #7 SOUTH AFRICA: Has kicked it into gear in his last two works at Belmont and attracts Jose Ortiz for his unveiling. The June 30th work looks particularly impressive; #2 BLAME THE CAKE: Hammered for $160,000 earlier this year, and while the pedigree says turf, his steady works on dirt at Churchill Downs are notable.

Positive Skew
Sharpin (MTO)
Free to Fly

#8 POSITIVE SKEW: Takes a gigantic drop in class to run here just two starts after being beaten less than three lengths in a stakes race at Gulfstream. Simply put, if this stays on the turf and she’s right, the race is for second money; #10 FREE TO FLY: Comes back to the claiming ranks after two starts against allowance foes on the mid-Atlantic circuit. Her last start when in for a tag was a win, and this seems like the right level; #12 ZABAVA: Rolled home when dropped way down in class last time out and may be seen as the logical alternative to my top selection. However, the post is a killer, and I don’t think she beat much last month at Belmont. DIRT SELECTIONS: SHARPIN, TAPPANZEE, DESTINY OVER FATE.

Carlisle Belle (MTO)
Fetching
Flush

#4 FETCHING: Rallied to finish third in a race that didn’t have much pace. There seems to be more speed signed on here, and her pedigree hints that she’ll embrace two turns; #5 FLUSH: Was second in that race, but had a perfect trip and got reeled in late. Maybe two turns will help, but I usually don’t like endorsing horses coming off of races like that on top; #10 DOODER: Was off 11 months and almost certainly needed her return race in May at Belmont on dirt. She gets back to her preferred surface, and she graduated over this turf course back in 2017. DIRT SELECTIONS: CARLISLE BELLE, TRI COUNTY ENTRY, HIT A PROVISIONAL.

Zonic
Cerretalto
Binkster

#2 ZONIC: Is a closer in what seems like a race full of early speed. He’s been gelded since his last start, and the fact that he boasts a win in his lone prior start over this surface is a big, big plus; #4 CERRETALTO: Has been off since December, but his 2018 form was quite good. At one point, he reeled off three wins in four starts, and he’s another that may benefit from a fast pace; #8 BINKSTER: Certainly seems like the speed of the speed, and he exits a very fast race for the level. He may make the lead, but the question is, will he have anything left when the field turns for home?

Cap de Creus (MTO)
Catch a Bid
Varenka

#8 CATCH A BID: Debuted with an authoritative score at Belmont, one where she covered the last quarter-mile in less than 23 seconds. I’m not sure what she beat that day, but any progression at all would make her tough to beat; #11 VARENKA: Has been ambitiously-spotted in her career and most recently ran third in the Grade 3 Regret at Churchill Downs. Any speed duel would work to her advantage, but Jose Ortiz will need to work out a trip from a tough post; #3 QUIET DIGNITY: Gets Lasix in her American debut for Chad Brown, who also saddles my top pick. Lasix tends to move European invaders way up, so I think she’s worth consideration. DIRT SELECTIONS: CAP DE CREUS, GODOLPHIN ENTRY, EBULLIENT.

Break Even
Bohemian Bourbon
Lyrical Lady

#4 BREAK EVEN: Is undefeated in five career starts, including a Grade 2 win earlier this year at Churchill. It’s her first time trying turf, but this barn has historically been excellent in turf sprints, and Bridgmohan comes in to ride; #3 BOHEMIAN BOURBON: Is a pace play for me, as she’s a closer in a race full of horses who will go very fast early. Perhaps she isn’t good enough to win, but she figures to be flying late at a big price; #2 LYRICAL LADY: Is bred to like turf, and when she’s good, she’s very good. Her race two back was excellent, and she’s a contender if she can channel that form in this spot.

R10

Mine the Coin
Star of the West
Dark Storm

#8 MINE THE COIN: Takes a big drop in class and has been gelded since his last start. It seems like he’s caught a weak field on the drop, so while the layoff is a slight concern, he still seems like the one to beat; #11 STAR OF THE WEST: Debuts for a trainer who has strong numbers with first-time starters at this level. He’s been working well, and he may not need to be much to pick up a check here; #1 DARK STORM: Didn’t run well at all last time out, but his debut against straight maidens was OK and that day’s rider gets the call here. This is Weaver’s “other” entrant in this race, and I think he’s got two live runners.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/13/19)

Posted on July 11, 2019 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $968

Breaking news from Northern California: An army of ducks has escaped captivity and has taken over part of the grandstand at Golden Gate Fields. In a Friday press conference, one of the ducks said this was a revolt against a leader who took a trip to Saratoga without planning to bring back souvenirs for his friends.

While denying that the beloved Saratoga Goose provided any inspiration, the ducks have stated that if their leader is not at his post come mid-August, their conquests could extend to the Northern California fair circuit, Grants Pass, and possibly even a casino or two in Reno. If any of you see or hear this leader in your travels, please ensure that this message is received. Additionally, if he has not bought himself or his father a copy of The Pink Sheet, guilt-trip him into doing so.

(Hi, Matt!)

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Our Pick Four play was cancelled due to races coming off the turf. What was left were the doubles to Lotta Ott, who was shuffled back a bit early and checked in fourth. As such, we dropped $12.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the 10th race and attempt to extract some value out of my best bet of the day. That’s #5 PAYNE, who I’ll key in $5 exactas on top of #4 UBER KIRK, #7 RULER OF THE NILE, and #8 HERSH. Additionally, I’ll play $5 doubles that start there and use #7 PROGNOSTICATION and #8 PATRIOT DRIVE in the finale.

TOTAL WAGERED: $25

– – – – –

BEST BET: Payne, Race 10
LONGSHOT: Kazmania, Race 7

She’s Not Bluffing
Win the Shake
Warm

#10 SHE’S NOT BLUFFING: Took a big step forward when she won by daylight last time out at Belmont. She tries winners for the first time, but this doesn’t hit me as a great field for the level; #5 WIN THE SHAKE: Likely needed her most recent start off of a four-month layoff. She showed some potential in two starts earlier this year at Aqueduct and adds blinkers for this event; #9 WARM: Takes a big drop in class after showing enough to try stakes company earlier this year. If she channels her Tampa form, she’ll be tough, but the drop is large enough that it raises eyebrows.

Mike’s Girl
Prisoner’s Dilemma
Mz Seb Pat

#3 MIKE’S GIRL: Did everything but win when second at this level last time out at Belmont. She figures to be the main speed, and the cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs could be what she needs to find the winner’s circle; #2 PRISONER’S DILEMMA: Drops in for a tag for the first time and should relish the class relief. Her race two back at Aqueduct was very good, and a repeat of that effort would make her a major player; #9 MZ SEB PAT: Has run well at this level twice this season and should be moving well late. The post position is a concern, but they should be going pretty quickly early on, which could help.

By Your Side
Cucina
Tomato Bill

#5 BY YOUR SIDE: Prevailed in a blanket finish at first asking at Churchill, and that race came back fine figures-wise. The outside post should be a big help, and it could ensure a perfect stalking trip; #3 CUCINA: Rallied in the slop to graduate last time out and may very well be favored here. He’s hinted at talent, but the slop may have moved him up, and such conditions may not be present here; #4 TOMATO BILL: Graduated at first asking at Delaware Park and sports a series of recent five-furlong drills here. He seems like the main speed, but this is a much tougher field than what he faced first time out.

Zyramid
Irked
High Tide

#6 ZYRAMID: Showed plenty of speed in his debut, when he was third behind a next-out winner. His experience should help him, and it’s tough to imagine him being outsprinted early; #3 IRKED: Has worked well ahead of his debut and merits respect at a bit of a price. He’s by War Front, and his dam and second dam both won stakes races as 2-year-olds, so it wouldn’t be stunning if he was ready to run right away; #1 HIGH TIDE: Debuts for Pletcher and Velazquez and sports several solid local workouts. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s due to the rail draw, which isn’t ideal for a first-time starter.

Sinwaan (MTO)
Turf War
Paper Clip

#7 TURF WAR: Gets a tepid nod in what hit me as a confounding turf sprint. Her form overseas was fine, and Europeans getting Lasix in American debuts are always worth a look, especially when they run for powerhouse connections like these; #2 PAPER CLIP: Was sharp in victory last time out at Churchill and faces winners for the first time here. She’s improved in each of her four career starts, and she’ll likely show speed from her inside post; ENTRY: Of the coupled runners, I prefer #1A NOBLE FREUD, who’s won here before. She’s another with early zip, but the layoff is a significant concern. DIRT SELECTIONS: SINWAAN, NOBLE FREUD, OUR CIRCLE OF LOVE.

Enforceable
Field Pass
Decorated Invader

#4 ENFORCEABLE: Has run reasonably well in two sprints and gets two turns, which he’s bred to love. He’s a full brother to multiple graded stakes-winner Mohaymen, who did his best work going long, and with his 300 turf Tomlinson rating, the surface shouldn’t be a problem; #3 FIELD PASS: Rallied to finish second in his debut at Churchill despite a slow early pace. The pace situation is unclear here as well, but improvement is logical at second asking; #2 DECORATED INVADER: Fetched $200,000 at auction and sports a solid series of local drills ahead of his unveiling. This barn isn’t necessarily known for precocious 2-year-olds, but he’s bred to go long, which should help. DIRT SELECTIONS: ENFORCEABLE, GHOST OF THE MAMBO, PLETCHER ENTRY.

Red Zinger
Lutsky
Kazmania

#8 RED ZINGER: Cuts back in distance after fading to sixth in his first try against winners. He’s been firing bullets over the Oklahoma track, and this six-furlong trip seems like the one he wants; #7 LUTSKY: Makes his first start for new trainer Jorge Navarro and has shown early zip in the past. Navarro can move horses up with the best of them, and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., can’t be ignored; #3 KAZMANIA: Merits a look in the exotics at a big price. He was third at this level downstate in his first start since January and should be running well late.

Peaceful
First Wave
Miss You Blues

#6 PEACEFUL: Missed the break in her debut at Monmouth, but still rallied to finish a good second. She doesn’t seem to catch a strong field for this level, and any step forward under Castellano would make her tough; #7 FIRST WAVE: Is bred up and down for turf and ran OK when second in an off-the-turf event back in May. This is likely what she wants to do, and she may be good enough to overcome the outside post; #5 MISS YOU BLUES: Adds blinkers after checking in third at this level at Belmont. She was wide last time out, and the slight cutback in distance could work to her advantage.

Rushing Fall
Homerique
Sistercharlie

#2 RUSHING FALL: Has lost just once in nine career starts, and this trip should hit her right between the eyes. She has plenty of speed, but doesn’t necessarily need the lead, which could come in handy given the speed directly to her outside; #6 HOMERIQUE: Went 2-for-2 at Belmont after shipping in from Europe and certainly merits respect. She overcame slow early paces in both of those events, and if there’s any hesitation here, it’s only because she may want a hair longer than she’ll go here; #4 SISTERCHARLIE: Comes back off a long layoff to get her campaign started in a race she won a season ago. The break is a major concern, as is the likely pace scenario. At her best, she probably wins, but if there’s ever a spot to go against her, it’s now.

R10

Payne
Uber Kirk
Ruler of the Nile

#5 PAYNE: Has yet to run a bad race, and was most recently second behind the classy Rowayton in a swiftly-run allowance at Belmont. He’ll be running well late in a race with plenty of speed signed on, which could make him very tough; #4 UBER KIRK: Has run four solid races in a row and seems to be hitting his peak as a 4-year-old. His win two back going a mile was solid, and he’s another that will be making one run as they turn for home; #7 RULER OF THE NILE: May not have lived up to the $1 million price tag he hammered for back in 2017, but he’s won three of his last four starts and has shown plenty of early zip. He won here last summer, and I think he’s one to use in the exotics at a big price.

R11

Shareholder Value (MTO)
Prognostication
Patriot Drive

#7 PROGNOSTICATION: Has not missed the board in four local starts and almost certainly needed his last-out clunker off of a long layoff. He takes a big drop in class and looms large in this spot; #8 PATRIOT DRIVE: Has won two in a row at this level since being moved to the Danny Gargan barn. He’s come to hand over Belmont’s one-turn configuration, but he does have a two-turn turf win to his credit from early-2018 at Fair Grounds; #11 BATTLE OF BLENHEIM: Held on last time out after making a big middle move in a race without much early speed. The post position is unfortunate, but his best could very well be good enough. DIRT SELECTIONS: SHAREHOLDER VALUE, CONQUEROR, GRAY SKY.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/12/19)

Posted on July 10, 2019 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $980

This section did not make it into the Opening Day edition of The Pink Sheet due to a print error, so some of this will be a rehash. For those of you seeing this section for the first time, I get a mythical $1,000 bankroll to bet any way I wish from now through Labor Day. I’ll also be using this space to expound on relevant matters, so if you have a question, comment, or concern, tweet it to me at @AndrewChampagne.

Also, two reminders: All of my content (picks, analysis, and bankroll plays/blurbs) is available online at AndrewChampagne.com, and all plays in the bankroll section involving turf races assume they stay on the grass. If they get rained off the turf, all plays in those races are voided.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Gosilently got to the lead but tired badly to finish off the board. As such, we dropped $20.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the early Pick Four, which starts in the second race and ends with my best bet of the day. I’ll play it for a dollar, and the ticket reads as follows: 2,5,6 with 3,5 with 3,8,9 with 4. I’ll also play $4 doubles starting in the fourth using the horses in the last two legs of my Pick Four play (which ensures action in case we’re rained off the turf).

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

– – – – –

BEST BET: Lotta Ott, Race 5
LONGSHOT: Freudycatfever, Race 10

Oso Negro
Legion Storm
Derby Memories

#8 OSO NEGRO: Takes a giant drop in class for powerhouse connections after burning a fair amount of money in two starts against straight maidens. It’s tough not to see this as an alarming drop, but he boasts the highest last-out Beyer Speed Figure by a clear margin; #2 LEGION STORM: Was a decent second in an off-the-turf event last time out. He was third going two turns (albeit on turf) earlier this year, and Saez returning to ride is a plus; #3 DERBY MEMORIES: Almost certainly needed his last start, which came off a layoff of nearly two years. The recent local workout indicates he’s ready to fire a bigger shot here.

Daddy Knows (MTO)
Worth a Shot
Jimmy Jazz

#2 WORTH A SHOT: Stretches out to two turns off a near-miss at Belmont, and his pedigree hints that two turns should not be an issue. He’s got plenty of early zip, which is always an asset on the inner turf course, and a step forward from the last-out effort would make him tough; #5 JIMMY JAZZ: Was beaten only a neck last time out despite a wide trip and a seven-pound weight gap. He beat the third-place finisher by three lengths that day, and he’s shown he can run well at this distance; #6 CRAZY LIFE: Ran pretty well when third in his first start since August. Several of that day’s rivals show up here, but this is the one that seems most eligible to improve off of that event. DIRT SELECTION: DADDY KNOWS.

Viva Forever (MTO)
Complicit
Ferdinanda

#3 COMPLICIT: Hasn’t run since October, but has fired every time out and won off of a similar-length layoff last year. There should be plenty of pace in here to set up for her late-running style; #5 FERDINANDA: Hasn’t finished worse than second in her last six starts and is another that will be running well late. She’s been working well downstate and was second in a similar spot here last summer; #4 DREAM PASSAGE: Has won two in a row over yielding going at Belmont and will almost certainly be involved early. She likely won’t be alone up front, though, and the two-turn trip is a question mark. DIRT SELECTIONS: VIVA FOREVER, BROMAN ENTRY, TANYA’S GEM.

Big Muddy
Lord Simba
Soul P Say

#9 BIG MUDDY: Gets a tepid nod in one of the toughest $12,500 claiming races you’ll ever see. He’s won four of his last seven starts, the most recent of which came last time out downstate, and this barn has been firing on all cylinders this year; #8 LORD SIMBA: Took a step forward last time out in his first start for trainer Eddie Kenneally, when he won for the first time since the 2017 Los Angeles at Santa Anita. It’s tough to imagine a return to his 2017 form, but he could be coming around a bit for a very capable barn; #3 SOUL P SAY: Drops more than 50% in claiming price off of his last race and merits plenty of respect off of his back form. Given the large purse, there’s a chance this isn’t a panicky drop, although it’s jarring to see a $32,000 claim come back for $12,500.

Lotta Ott
Good Shabbos
Apurate

#4 LOTTA OTT: Has turned heads in the mornings at Keeneland ahead of her unveiling. The gate work on June 26th jumps off the page, and this filly bred by former NYRA jockey Jose Espinoza sure looks like a runner; #2 GOOD SHABBOS: Has an experience edge on most of this group, having just missed last month at Monmouth. I’m not sure what she faced that day, but they ran pretty quickly that day, and this barn knows how to win with 2-year-olds; #1 APURATE: Draws the rail for the Pletcher/Velazquez duo and has a few solid drills over the training track. She’s logical, but the rail is a tough spot for a debuting runner to win from, and the pedigree screams turf, not dirt.

Repole entry (MTO)
Keep Quiet
Applicator

#7 KEEP QUIET: Has had a productive 2019 campaign to date and makes his first start for Steve Asmussen. He’s run well here in the past, and while this isn’t an easy spot, he strikes me as the one to beat; #12 APPLICATOR: Has won three of his last five and may well have been my top pick with a better post. As it stands now, he’ll have to overcome a very wide draw in his first start for Linda Rice, but he may just have the talent to do it; #11 HAY DAKOTA: Is another that didn’t have any luck at the draw, but he ran a big race to win at this level last time out at Churchill. Any speed duel would certainly work to this closer’s advantage. DIRT SELECTIONS: REPOLE ENTRY, HEAVY ROLLER, SUPER DUDE.

Filly Dilly
Saloon Girl (MTO)
Noble Jewel

#9 FILLY DILLY: Romped in her debut, which came in an off-the-turf race last month at Belmont. Her pedigree says she wants grass, and any improvement in her second start would make her a formidable foe; #6 NOBLE JEWEL: Also makes her second start after springing an upset in a turf sprint downstate. That race didn’t have the best field, but she finished very quickly and Joel Rosario retains the mount; #1 SHORT POUR: Merits a look in the exotics at a price. She rallied to be beaten just two lengths in her 2019 debut, and I think she’s eligible to improve second off the bench. DIRT SELECTIONS: FILLY DILLY, SALOON GIRL, LEM ME HAVE IT.

Doups Point
Dreamzapper
Big Gemmy

#6 DOUPS POINT: Has six top-two finishes in seven lifetime starts and certainly seems like the one to beat. He was second despite a bad break last time out, and two turns shouldn’t be an issue; #2 DREAMZAPPER: Has taken a big leap forward as a 4-year-old, and has run three solid route races coming into this event. His tactical speed is a plus, and that could mean a perfect stalking trip; #3 BIG GEMMY: Has won two in a row for Linda Rice, albeit against weaker competition. I’m not crazy about him being entered for a tag, but he appears to be in good form and he did break his maiden over this surface back in 2017.

Voodoo Song
March to the Arch
Offering Plan

#7 VOODOO SONG: Gets my top pick in the Forbidden Apple as arguably Saratoga’s most notable “horse for course” since Fourstardave. He’s won five of six starts over this turf course, and he should be prominent early in a race that seems pretty light on early speed (outside of #1 GIDU); #5 MARCH TO THE ARCH: Rallied to win the Grade 2 Wise Dan last month at Churchill and seems to be in career-best form. His chances would improve significantly with a speed duel, although I think he may truly want a bit more ground; #4 OFFERING PLAN: Hasn’t finished out of the money in nearly two years, although many of his races have come against state-breds. He’s won twice over this turf course, and his best effort would make him a contender in this spot.

R10

Happy Sophia (MTO)
Linda’s Ballet
Freudycatfever

#6 LINDA’S BALLET: Gets back on turf and takes a big drop in class for a trainer who has had lots of success with similar stock. Repeats of her efforts two or three back would make her very tough to beat; #1 FREUDYCATFEVER: Missed the break in her debut against straight maidens and is certainly eligible to improve at second asking against a weaker group. If Noble Jewel (who won that June 7th event) runs well in the seventh, it bodes well for this one’s chances; #5 ABBY NORMAL: Has closed well in two of her prior turf tries, most recently earning a career-best Beyer Speed Figure last month at Belmont. She should be moving well late at a fair price. DIRT SELECTIONS: HAPPY SOPHIA, SCARLET’S COMMAND, ABBY NORMAL.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/11/19, OPENING DAY)

Posted on July 10, 2019 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

It’s time for another year of fun in the bankroll section! For those of you unfamiliar, I get a mythical $1,000 bankroll to bet however I wish between now and Labor Day, with all results tracked in this section. Last year, we were fortunate enough to turn a profit here, and I’m hoping for similar results this time around.

I’ll use this space for some fun stuff, too. Got something you want tackled? Tweet me at @AndrewChampagne, and your question/comment may very well wind up in print!

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll keep my first play of the year simple. One of my favorite horses to play at Saratoga is a front-runner in an inner-turf race with very little other speed signed on. This applies in the fourth, as #5 GOSILENTLY could get a dream trip at a fair price. I’ll bet $10 on him to win and place, and as usual, all bets on turf races assume those events stay on the grass.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

– – – – –

BEST BET: Giant Zinger, Race 7
LONGSHOT: Elektronic, Race 9

Tiz No Bluff
Real Dan
Curlin’s New Moon

#6 TIZ NO BLUFF: Is the lone runner in here with a win going two turns on dirt and exits an easy victory against weaker foes at Belmont. His tactical speed should be a plus given the added distance; #7 REAL DAN: Drops in for a tag after two failed efforts at Belmont, but it’s possible he may not have liked that track. He was 2-for-2 at Aqueduct, and a repeat of those efforts puts him in the mix; #8 CURLIN’S NEW MOON: Capitalized on a perfect trip last time out at Belmont. It’s encouraging that Jose Ortiz gets back aboard, and he could sit a nice stalking trip.

Ahead of Plan (MTO)
Sayyaaf
Declined

#2 SAYYAAF: Has burned money in his last two starts, but this seems like a far weaker spot. The shortened trip should help as well, and he’ll likely be a popular multi-race exotics single if this stays on the grass; #12 DECLINED: Drew a terrible post, but was competitive in two starts on turf at Churchill Downs. He’s got some early zip, but he may need to use it; #4 HURRICANE JAKE: Adds Lasix and gets a better draw today than he did last time out. He hasn’t run terribly in his prior outings, and we may get a price given the smaller barn. DIRT SELECTIONS: AHEAD OF PLAN, OFF THE RECORD, UP AND ONWARD.

Growth Engine
Potomac
Walkoff

#6 GROWTH ENGINE: Has had some gate issues of late, but has still taken significant steps forward in each start to date. He’s shown he can win going two turns, and the worktab at Monmouth looks very sharp; #4 POTOMAC: Had every chance on the Belmont undercard when second as the favorite, but he’s run four strong races in a row and won for fun over this track last summer; #2 WALKOFF: Tries two turns for the first time and merits respect given the connections. He’s shown plenty of talent, but may need more pace than he figures to get in this spot.

Indigo Yankee (MTO)
Gosilently
Mr. Discretionary

#5 GOSILENTLY: Has hit the board in 15 of 16 lifetime turf starts and could sit an ideal trip on or near the lead through friendly fractions. The most recent workout hints that he’s ready to go off the bench, and if he gets an easy lead, look out; #3 MR. DISCRETIONARY: Gets a class test after beating weaker foes last time out at Monmouth. Jose Lezcano hops aboard after a tremendous meet at Belmont, and he’s shown an ability to make up ground late; #2 LOCAL HERO: Hasn’t won in a while, but ran very well against similar company at Churchill last month. He could be on the upswing after a trainer change earlier in the year. DIRT SELECTIONS: INDIGO YANKEE, AUTOSTRADE, WILDERNESS GATE.

Aubrey Tate
Funfetti
Love Me Tomorrow

#8 AUBREY TATE: Gets a tepid nod in a wide-open maiden race. Sire Bayern is off to a fast start at stud, and dam D’wild Ride is a multiple stakes-winning sprinter that has already thrown three other winners; #9 FUNFETTI: Debuts for a barn that can get horses ready to run right away. Several of her works hint that she can run, and Jose Ortiz getting the call is encouraging; #2 LOVE ME TOMORROW: Has an experience edge on most of these and was an OK third in her debut. This barn merits respect, and perhaps she’s improved, but that race didn’t hit me as a strong one, so I’ll try to beat her.

Morgantown (MTO)
Pipes
Generazio entry

#9 PIPES: Comes back to turf in his first start for a new barn and ran well at this route last summer. I’m not crazy about the post, but it’s not as bad as it could be and late-running types can overcome it by saving ground early; GENERAZIO ENTRY: I prefer #1A VETERANS BEACH, who won here on debut last August and cuts back in distance after a failed try against stakes goes. #1 MAGICAL TALE, though, could be a factor if he runs back to his two-back effort; #4 FLED: Aired by more than five lengths at Laurel last month in his turf debut. His connections had been trying to get him on the grass, and it’s possible this is what he’s wanted all along. DIRT SELECTIONS: MORGANTOWN, PIPES, GIANT BOO BOO.

Giant Zinger
Cartwheel (MTO)
Wegetsdamunnys

#4 GIANT ZINGER: Gets significant class relief after three straight tries against graded stakes competition. This is a far easier spot, and she showed she could win here a season ago; #10 WEGETSDAMONEYS: Hasn’t won in more than a year, but was fourth beaten just two lengths in a classy NY-bred stakes race in May. She’ll be running well late, and an early speed duel would certainly help her; #6 BAREEQA: Merits a look in the exotics at a big price. She’s shown she prefers two-turn routes of ground and has three wins and a third in five starts over this turf course. Perhaps she’s peaked, but the two-back win hints that there may be more in the tank. DIRT SELECTIONS: CARTWHEEL, MAIDEN BEAUTY, ELEGANT JEN.

Aurelia Garland
Kiss the Girl
Shippy

#8 AURELIA GARLAND: Won for fun in her debut at Belmont, where she went five furlongs in :57 and change. A repeat of that effort would give her a big shot in a wide-open renewal of the Schuylerville; #9 KISS THE GIRL: Represents the formidable Pletcher/Velazquez tandem and can’t be ignored off a strong win in her debut. Her two works since that race were good, and she gets a cushy outside draw; #1 SHIPPY: Looked like a freak in her debut win at Laurel, after which she was sold and transferred to new trainer Doug O’Neill. If she’s ready, she probably wins, but the one work since her debut win isn’t ideal, nor is the rail draw. At her likely price, I’ll only be using her defensively.

Abyssinian
Sombeyay
Elektronic

#1 ABYSSINIAN: Has yet to run a bad race and most recently picked up a pair of checks in ungraded stakes on the Kentucky circuit. She faces the boys here, but she’s in strong form and could be tough if she fires her best shot; #10 SOMBEYAY: Tries turf for the first time and is bred to love it. That pedigree (one resulting in an insanely-high 351 turf Tomlinson number) and his late-running style could be enough to overcome the outside post; #2 ELEKTRONIC: Was rated in a paceless race last time out and should get plenty of speed to run at here. His wins two and three back were sharp, and I think he outruns his morning line odds.

R10

Countenance (MTO)
Claddagh’s Run
Darling of the Spa

#4 CLADDAGH’S RUN: Stepped forward on the drop last time out with a strong late move for second and gets two turns here. There’s some speed signed on, and I think she’ll be moving the right way late in the game; #5 DARLING OF THE SPA: Has worked well ahead of her debut and merits respect for strong connections. It’s tough to win going long at first asking, but she may not have to be much to beat these; #9 TO A FRIEND: Drops in class after setting the pace in a turf marathon last time out. Blinkers come on in this spot, and she’s one of a few that figures to want control going by the stands the first time. DIRT SELECTIONS: COUNTENANCE, DARLING OF THE SPA, DOTTIE’S SPIRIT.