The Saratogian

INTERLUDE: Saratoga, The State of Racing, and a Track that Revived Me

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

It feels incredibly weird to say a few things that I’m about to say, but here we are.

Firstly, Saratoga kicks off its 2019 season on Thursday.

Secondly, up until a few weeks ago, I…wasn’t overly excited about it.

That sounds blasphemous, but hear me out. I am upstate New York through and through despite living in California since late-2013. I am horse racing through and through despite my primary source of income not coming from the racing business for the first time in seven summers (and despite that nobody associated with the “I Am Horse Racing” videos would EVER want me associated with that campaign!). Saratoga ought to be right in my wheelhouse, and for several years, I’m proud to say it has been. You may have heard about the summer of 2017; if not, ask anyone on Twitter who’s sick and tired of hearing about it.

Having said that, though, this year felt really different as spring transitioned into summer. This hurts to say, but for many reasons, it was hard to be a racing fan for most of 2019. The Santa Anita situation reflected well on no one, with horses breaking down  and track administrators blaming the media while simultaneously giving PETA a seat at the table. Credit where it’s due: Santa Anita became a safer place in the final weeks of its meet, but what happened from January to March is a sad chapter in the history of a venue that has hosted some of the best of what racing has to offer.

Meanwhile, the Kentucky Derby disqualification played right into the hands of the “whoever’s louder wins” school of debate. Worst of all, racing proceeded to squander all momentum from that event in the weeks that followed without creating meaningful change that would’ve increased the interest of novice or casual fans. Racing had a chance to grab public interest, create new fans, and drive a marketing/PR campaign through the summer and fall months that everyone would’ve been proud of. Instead, the two principal players in the Derby controversy will not face each other until next year (if at all), a lawsuit involving the race figures to drag on for months, and NBC opted to run with video of a riderless horse during the Preakness, which created no handle and very little interest in the horses that actually finished the race. Everyone involved whiffed and whiffed hard, and there’s no other way to accurately sum it up.

I wasn’t about to quit the game or anything, though I know plenty of people (some in the industry) who have said their interest and betting activity has declined significantly from this point a year ago. That’s understandable, for a variety of different reasons. I’d planned to take a bit of a break from the sport for a while before fate intervened and gave my “racing fan” side a much-needed reboot.

Those who follow me closely know I moved from Los Angeles to Northern California in early-2018. In doing so, I’ve gotten to know the folks at the California Association of Racing Fairs pretty well. I co-hosted a few seminars last year with track announcer Chris Griffin, and I wound up agreeing to come out to Pleasanton for a few Saturdays during its meet. I did a lot of social media from there, with content ranging from picks and analysis to photos of everything from horses to fair food, and I also helped out with a new segment honoring veterans and their families (one of the coolest things I’ve ever been part of, and Chris deserves all the credit in the world for getting that off the ground).

There are some places that are just plain good for the soul, and Pleasanton is one of them. The people are incredible, everyone seems genuinely happy to be there, and the racing product was solid. The daily seminars were always insightful and entertaining, and I was incredibly proud to co-host one with my father on the final Saturday of the meet (he gave out the late Pick Four!). If you’ve never been to a fair track, go at least once. Northern California will have meets at Sacramento, Santa Rosa, Ferndale, and Fresno before the year is out, and I’m looking forward to heading to at least two of them, maybe three (unfortunately, they do NOT make it easy to get to Ferndale!).

Chris, Dennis Miller, and everyone on the racing side did a heck of a job bringing back my enthusiasm for the game. Horsemen like Allen Aldrich, Jonathan Wong, and Quinn Howey were unbelievably nice and welcoming to me, and plenty of the fans had a genuine interest in wanting to know more about the product. It’s what I needed, and other than one unfortunate meal and its even-more-unfortunate outcome, I wouldn’t have changed a thing about the experience.

Pleasanton’s in the books, and now, it’s on to Saratoga. My batteries are recharged, my spidey senses are tingling, and I’m ready to reclaim what’s rightfully mine. I lost three photos in the last two days of the 2018 meet, and as a result, Liam Durbin beat me by a single win in the pick box on the front page of The Pink Sheet. I can’t, and I won’t, let that happen again. Furthermore, I’m also going after The Saratoga Special’s John Shapazian, who reclaimed the “king of all media” handicapping crown with a genuinely awesome performance all meet long a season ago. That’ll be a tough mountain to climb, but I’ve got my gear and I don’t quit easy.

As a refresher, here’s all the content you can expect from me on a daily basis: Two days before each card, I’ll have picks and analysis up on AndrewChampagne.com. In addition, I’ll have a bankroll play for each day of racing, but this will not be inserted until the previous day’s wagering has concluded. We turned a profit in that section last year, and I’ll be delighted if we can do so again. Furthermore, as topics come to me, I’ll be producing weekly editions of “The Dark Day Files,” columns on any number of topics involving Saratoga and the sport at large. Got an idea for such a column? Reach out via the “contact” section here. I see every note that comes in, and I’ll gladly take any opportunity I can find to show the racing world I can still write a little bit (that “win an Eclipse Award” box on my bucket list has to get checked at some point!).

All of this will also be in The Pink Sheet every racing day (with the exception of “The Dark Day Files,” which is an online-only production). If you like what you see/read from me, or from anyone else associated with its production, support it by buying a print copy when you’re in town. I kid around a lot, and I can be very sarcastic, but I’m as serious as a heart attack when I tell you that local journalism needs your money and/or support a heck of a lot more than I do.

In addition, I’m proud to be back in the fold at Horse Racing Nation, where I wrote some really good stuff in 2014 before a political situation reared its ugly head. I’ll be putting forth daily tickets and analysis pertaining to the NYRA Pick Five, which will be widely available on all platforms. I’m grateful to Mark Midland, Jonathan Lintner, and the entire HRN team for welcoming me back, and hopefully, we can put some money in your pockets.

Finally, I’ll also be continuing with my DRF Bets Formulator Angle videos. Twice a week (usually on Thursday and Friday), I’ll take a deep dive and bring you trends and figures that will hopefully help you cash a ticket. I enjoy doing these videos, and there’s no better place to focus them than at the track where I developed an interest in the sport.

To those that have supported my work in the past: Thank you. There’s no better feeling than helping someone else pick a winner, and I’ve been blessed to be in more positions to do that than most people my age. I can’t promise you fancy hats, or social media strategies that appeal to crowds that wear fancy hats, but what I can promise you is intensive, hard-hitting content that reflects the work I put into each card. If I’m in a situation where my personality can come out to have a little fun, so much the better (speaking of which, you might hear about a trip east later this summer; stay tuned).

Let’s go make some money!

My Unofficial Mission Statement

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

For those who don’t know, I took a job last month working as a Copy Editor/Multimedia Content Producer at Life Chiropractic College West. It’s a great gig, and I’m working with a lot of wonderful people.

One of my first assignments was covering Champions Weekend, one of the school’s admissions events. In the introductory speech, Mary Lucus-Flannery, the dean of enrollment, challenged prospective students with an important, but daunting-sounding, question.

“What is your why?”

I wasn’t the target audience for that question, but it’s been in my brain for a week and I can’t get it out. Horse racing may be a side hustle for me now, but it’s something I’m still incredibly passionate about. Whether some in the sport want me to be or not, I firmly believe I’m as good an ambassador for the sport as there is. My goal is to use the platforms I have to communicate, educate, and drive people to want to know more about the game.

To be honest, I am not racing’s target audience, in many ways. I bet, but not outrageously. I’m young, but I don’t go to the track to party. I respect people and companies within the industry, but that’s not going to stop me from calling a spade a spade (hi, Breeders’ Cup Derby!). I can come across as conceited sometimes (at some point, I REALLY need to tell the full story of how Gimmick Andrew was born; if you hate it and you’re curious, find me), but my actual approach to handicapping is very nuts-and-bolts.

My background, and the way I approach things, means I can communicate to people on a variety of levels. That’s what I’m striving to do. What comes next are the pillars of that platform, ones that answer the, “what is your why?,” question. This acts as an unofficial mission statement of everything I’m trying to do and why I’m trying to do it.

1) Passion.

Without this, everything falls apart. I’ve been passionate about horse racing since my dad took me to Saratoga when I was very young. For better or for worse, by the time I was in middle school, I was able to interpret PP’s as stories, not as overwhelming numbers and figures that looked more like hieroglyphics.

I learned right away that there’s money to be made in this game if you put in the work. I also learned that you have to be REALLY passionate in order to put forth the amount of work needed to be successful. What’s more, successful bettors bet more, which means that smarter fans are what keeps the sport going.

I don’t charge for anything on this website. If people can take something away from the content I create and use it in their own ways moving forward, that’s infinitely more valuable to me than whatever money I could make. I’ve got a steady job. Right now, racing needs the churn more than I do.

2) The challenge.

Picking horses is hard. It’s similar to hitting a baseball, in that if you’re successful three out of 10 times, you’re one of the better people in your chosen profession. Even the best handicappers go through prolonged slumps where horses seem to lose in the most improbable of ways.

I’ve always been fascinated by the concept of “beating the game.” I imagine it’s the same thing that drives a lot of professional poker players, which explains why I was pretty good at that for a while, too (before the U.S. government decided online poker players were criminals, that is). Put a challenge in front of me, and I’m going to do everything in my power to overcome it. That’s just how I’m wired.

3) Transparency/honesty.

I put my name on everything I write, and my face is generally in there, too. I’m an easy guy to find. Don’t like something? The contact feature of the site is right here, and I see/respond to every piece of email I get.

I have no patience for “handicappers” that give people like me a bad reputation. I’m not talking about the outspoken folks that put their names/likenesses beside what they write. I may not agree with them, but I respect them having the guts to attribute their thoughts to a name and face. I’m talking about folks who come up with fake names, don’t put their faces on their profiles, don’t post picks, and blast those who are putting in the work. Furthermore, some members of this crowd impersonate others for no good reason, and sling vicious, unprovoked abuse towards others solely because they can. People like that can take long walks off of short piers.

When I write something, or say something, or pick a horse and say why I like it, you’ll always know where it’s coming from. There are times where this has worked to my detriment (more in my memoirs!), but I value this. I wish others did, too.

4) Competition.

The very nature of pari-mutuel betting hit me right away, even at an embarrassingly young age. It’s my money against your money. If I’m right, I win. If you’re right, you win. Either way, there’s another race coming up in a half-hour, so we’ll do it again in a little while.

The premise of handicapping, to me, is as simple as that. It’s looking for an edge on everyone else betting into the same pool you are. It’s being able to acknowledge when the heavy money is right, and being able to capitalize when it’s wrong. I don’t need fancy hats, or overpriced cocktails, or any of the ridiculous accessories tracks try to market on big days to people who don’t bet. When I go to the track, it’s a business trip (though I will never say no to a well-made sandwich from a carving station).

This also covers one of the things I really enjoy doing. Every summer, I’m one of five handicappers in The Pink Sheet, which is produced by The Saratogian. In that pick box, I go head-to-head with a number of people I genuinely like and respect. We’re not the only paper that does this, and I have an obsession with keeping track of everyone else and seeing where I stand.

Bottom line: I want to win. I want to be considered one of the best in the game at what I do, and I’ve got enough in the way of results to where I should be in the conversation. That leads into the last pillar…

5) Respect.

There are people in high, HIGH places who would prefer if I stayed far away from the sport. That may seem like an outlandish statement. It’s not, and I’ve got experiences that back that up (this site was born in 2017 as a direct result of one of them).

Like I’ve mentioned, I’m not a marketing department’s target audience. My existence isn’t the idea of some decision-maker somewhere. What I am, however, is one of the better handicappers in the country, and I’m not going anywhere. I’ve put in too much work to allow that to happen.

I’ll be filming DRF Bets Formulator Angle videos, producing Saratoga content for The Pink Sheet, guest-starring on Northern California handicapping seminars/preview shows, and calling into podcasts for as long as their respective hosts, editors, and managers will have me. My mere presence makes people who don’t like me go absolutely crazy (for proof, see the Twitter war I was in with a troll a few weeks ago; muting him was fun, but ultimately I had to block him once things went too far), and that’s how I like it.

I was the leading handicapper across all media at Saratoga back in 2017. I had a chip on my shoulder for a while, one that I’m sad to say wasn’t around for the last few months for various reasons (there’s one person you can blame for that, and that’ll be in my memoirs, too). Having said that, that chip’s back now.

I want to hear from people. I want to know what you’re looking for so that I can provide whatever high-quality content I have the resources to produce. I’m an easy guy to find, and as I’ve mentioned, I respond to everything that comes my way.

To those that have read my stuff for any length of time: Thank you. I’m going to continue being the best handicapper I can be. I owe it to my audience, as well as to a sport that, whether it wants to admit it or not, needs me (and people like me).

A Requiem for a Different Saratoga Meet

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Every once in a while, maybe every few years, I go out to dinner and have a weird internal dialogue with my subconscious. The last time I can remember this happening before Monday night was the week of the 2015 Breeders’ Cup. In addition to being the lone social media person for TVG at the time, the company was rebranding HRTV into TVG2, which meant redesigning what was then HRTV.com to fit the new brand, all while staying on top of Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube during one of the four busiest weeks of the year.

That Thursday, I came into work at 6 a.m. and watched the sun rise on one side of the Howard Hughes Center. I left at about 8 p.m. after watching it set on the other side, and the first place of repute open on my way back to my then-apartment in Pasadena was a Denny’s in Culver City. I was running on fumes at that point, and it’s a miracle I didn’t pass out during that weekend’s TVG Extra broadcast (visions of overtime money danced in my head!).

My present-day corner of the world has a dimly lit dive bar next door. It’s called Vinnie’s, and after two long days of work Sunday and Monday, I wound up there as a local band was doing a sound check for a 10 p.m. set. The food isn’t fantastic, but it’s solid, cheap, and, most importantly to me on this particular evening, someone other than me was preparing it.

The best way I can describe Vinnie’s is this: Picture Sister Margaret’s, the bar in the “Deadpool” movies. It’s dark, to the point of being gloomy, and there’s sometimes strange stuff going on (on this particular evening, several people were shooting dice on the bar and sending the same $1 bill back and forth). It’s popular with bikers, but not the ones you need to be afraid of (think of the One-Eyed Snakes from “Bob’s Burgers,” in that they look menacing but are mostly harmless).

You may be thinking to yourself, “Self, I thought this was a horse racing column.” I’m getting there. The reason I was so winded tonight is because the 2018 Saratoga meet has come to a close after 40 cards of racing in upstate New York. It took me a little while to realize it, but I wound up at Vinnie’s for a reason. It’s a different kind of place, and this year’s Saratoga stand was a different sort of meet.

Sure, at its peak, it had the great racing Saratoga is known for. The meet hosted slam-dunk Champion 3-Year-Old Filly Monomoy Girl, who cruised to victory in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks. Top sprinter Imperial Hint ran roughshod over the field in the Grade 1 A.G. Vanderbilt. Fast-rising Marley’s Freedom galloped home much the best in the Grade 1 Ballerina for Red Jacket honoree Bob Baffert. Fans saw Saratoga County native Chad Brown set a single-season record for wins by a trainer, and were treated to a rousing rendition of the Travers, which found a way to stand out even without Triple Crown winner Justify (thanks, Catholic Boy).

There were certainly highlights, ones Saratoga produces every single year, and by the numbers, the track saw its second-highest all-sources handle in history. However, there were some bumps along the way. The first 20 days of the meet saw nearly 10 inches of rain drench the Saratoga area, and 50 races were rained off the turf. From a handicapping perspective, that often meant having to look at races twice, just in case the skies happened to open up.

There was also the infamous race run at the wrong distance. When Somelikeithotbrown waltzed home to break his maiden, it was going a mile and an eighth, not the race’s intended route of a mile and a sixteenth. Additionally, there were a few late scratches of horses entered as parts of entries, which meant that the remaining horses in those entries ran for purse money only and were not eligible betting interests. The worst-case scenario in that instance happened in one day’s opener, when half of a Joe Sharp-trained entry was ruled out and the other half won as much the best. Bettors who liked that part of the entry and bet accordingly got nothing for having a correct opinion, which is a situation that must be avoided at all possible times.

For me, this meet was weird in other ways, too. I started writing for The Saratogian in 2012, and stayed on as a seasonal freelancer after leaving for California in late-2013. In that time, I’ve seen a lot of changes at the newspaper. My two primary supervisors, managing editor Barbara Lombardo and sports editor Kevin Moran, took buyouts in 2015. David Johnson, who assumed Kevin’s post after his departure, left following the 2017 meet. This summer, the paper’s full-time sports staff consisted of two people: Editor Joe Boyle, whose primary job was to produce regular sports sections for both The Saratogian and The Troy Record, and Stan Hudy, who took the lead on producing The Pink Sheet. Compare that with the staff I walked into in 2012, which boasted a sports editor (Kevin), several full-time reporters (myself, David, Stan, Alex Ventre, and eventually Mike Cignoli), a few freelancers (Jeff Scott, who still contributes, and the great Mike Veitch, who retired last year), two clerks (Chris Maley and Tyler Michaud), and a dedicated sports paginator/copy editor (first Matt Donato, and then Ryan Hayner).

Even with a full staff, producing two sections a day for seven weeks is not easy (DRF colleague and former Saratogian sports editor Nicole Russo can back me up on that!). The realities of journalism are such that editors and reporters must do more with less on a constant basis. Joe and Stan put forth herculean efforts to get the paper(s) out as scheduled, and while I thanked Stan in my final bankroll blurb of the season, it’s worth doing so again here, in an area where I’ve got a bit more room to express myself. Thanks, Stan. Hopefully, I never held anything up!

From a handicapping standpoint, the meet was its own kind of difficult. Saratoga is always hard. The rule of thumb I’ve always used is that three wins per day is an admirable pace, and that 120 winners (three a day for 40 days) will yield a solid placing amongst other handicappers of that ilk. When I somehow came out on top amongst all print handicappers in 2017, I did so with 128 top-pick winners. John Shapazian, who won the crown this year, had 123. As I recall, one or two others were in the 115-120 range.

This year, Shapazian had 116 winners. Liam Durbin, who regained the Pink Sheet title, had 109. I had 108, and as far as I can tell, that was good for a clear third (feel free to correct me if I’m wrong). These are incredibly low numbers compared to the ones that are usually needed to win, but that’s how hard this year’s meet was.

Put in other ways, consider a few of these facts: Talented but little-known trainers Chuck Lawrence, Gary Contessa, and Greg Sacco all won more Grade 1 races (one apiece) than longtime Saratoga maestro/future Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher (zero). Mark Casse, one of North America’s most respected horsemen, suffered through an ugly 0 for 48 streak at the Spa that ended when Fly Away Birdie came running late in the Labor Day opener. Gary Sciacca saw Casse’s streak and raised it 21 more, to 0 for 69 (special thanks to DRF’s David Grening for his note on the specific number). He hadn’t won a race at the Spa since 2016, but the drought ended when Sicilia Mike romped in Monday’s seventh race. Paraphrasing an Andy Serling remark from early in the meet, you’re nobody until you get crushed at Saratoga, and this year, the bakeries making humble pie did incredible business.

I look forward to Saratoga every year. I grew up going there every summer, getting autographs from jockeys, listening to Tom Durkin, and learning how to read the publication I’d eventually work for. There are changes every summer. More people I’ve rubbed shoulders with leave the business, for one reason or another. Durkin retired after the 2014 meet. Many people that populated the press box in 2012 and 2013 no longer work for those employers, and a few, unfortunately, have passed away (Paul Moran, Mike Jarboe, Matt Graves, and John Mazzie are all missed). We’re already preparing for one additional change that’s coming sooner rather than later, as longtime NYRA bugler Sam Grossman’s last day of work came and went Monday afternoon.

Saratoga provides a rush to be able to test my skills against other handicappers (for my money, some of the best ones around). As an incredibly competitive person drawn to horse racing not by fashion or Instagram photos, but by the very nature of pari-mutuel wagering (my money against yours), that’s always been something I value. Having said that, it’s also an incredible honor to produce content others can use as a tool to make some money, and that’s the primary reason I love doing what I’m privileged to do for seven weeks out of the year.

Personally, there are years where the Saratoga meet means something bigger. 2013’s meet was my way of burying myself in work to keep my mind off of other things in my life. 2017’s meet was about me proving several high-level doubters dead wrong, and I remain proud to say that that’s what I did (you can blame those doubters for me going into wrestling promo mode at times over the past year; if you find me, ask and I’ll tell you the story).

This summer wasn’t quite like that. It was an endurance test, handicapping’s version of the 24 Hours of Le Mans, where hitting the wire brought with it its own special sense of relief (and, for a privileged few, some sense of accomplishment). It was a summer where a lot of creatures, both human and equine, had to navigate around situations that were far from ideal. To those that did: Congratulations. You made it.

God willing, I’ll see you all next year. I’ve got a title to get back!

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 9/3/18 (Labor Day)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,178.20

Closing day is upon us, and there are plenty of people I need to acknowledge. First on that list (whether he likes it or not) is Stan Hudy, who took it upon himself to spearhead production of The Pink Sheet while also helping to produce content for the paper’s conventional sports section. This is not an easy thing for one person to do, especially when it’s tougher than ever to be a journalist at a smaller newspaper.

I also need to acknowledge my fellow Pink Sheet handicappers. Handicapping every race, every day, is a grind, especially when the horses you really like count the same as reluctant top picks. Heading into Sunday’s action, Liam Durbin and I were tied with 104 winners. It’s been a thrill to compete with him, as well as with Sam Hollingsworth, Dan Feiss, and our avian friend, and I hope we all get the chance to do it again next summer.

Last, but certainly not least, I need to thank you, the reader. Whether you bought a copy of The Pink Sheet or visited AndrewChampagne.com, it means the world to me that you read the content I’ve created. That’s a big reason why I look forward to doing this every year, and I sincerely hope I’ve helped you cash a few tickets this meet. We’ve got one more day of racing. Let’s make it a good one!

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Our win bets went 0 for 2, as Beach Front just missed in the second and Bella’s Game wanted no part of two turns in the fifth. We dropped $40.

MONDAY’S PLAY: Since I don’t have a deadline to worry about, I’m focusing on the late Pick Four and looking to go out with a bang. My 50-cent ticket starts in the eighth race and is as follows: ALL with 1 with 1,3,7 with 2,14. #14 SPRING DRAMA is an also-eligible in the last race, so the ticket cost could easily be halved from $33 to $16.50. Additionally, based on her last-out journey, I must bet #2 LADY CAMILLE in the 11th on her own. I’ll put $20 on her to win and hope we get the 5-1 morning line price. For the final bankroll total, check @AndrewChampagne on Twitter at the conclusion of Monday’s card!

TOTAL WAGERED: $53

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Voodoo Song, Race 9
Longshot: Princesa Carolina, Race 6

R1

Catch Me If U Can
Gump
Fly Away Birdie

#7 CATCH ME IF U CAN: Is one of several contenders exiting a race on July 30th, and this one impressed me the most. He was very green that day, but was gaining ground late after sputtering on the turn. He goes to Steve Asmussen and should improve at second asking; #5 GUMP: Was a one-paced third in that race, but did take a step forward off of his downstate efforts. Irad Ortiz sees fit to ride back, and getting off the rail could help him; #2 FLY AWAY BIRDIE: Drops in for a tag after shipping in from Woodbine. He was a prospect for this barn and was bet to 6/5 in his debut, so it wouldn’t be a huge shock if the drop wakes him up, but this barn’s been ice-cold for the past few weeks.

R2

Class Won (MTO)
All Clear
Fast Getaway

#3 ALL CLEAR: Was a competitive second behind a next-out winner in his turf debut back in May and gets Joel Rosario. He’s 8-1 on the morning line, but I’m guessing he’ll drop a bit by the time they load into the gate; #9 FAST GETAWAY: Showed speed against better earlier in the meet before fading to fifth. The yielding turf may not have helped him, and if he channels his two-back form, he’ll certainly be a major player; #11 LA MAQUINA GRIS: Hasn’t won on turf and doesn’t draw particularly well, but his lone recent one-turn turf sprint was a solid second at this level. It wouldn’t be a shock to see him run on late for a piece of it. DIRT SELECTIONS: CLASS WON, COMEONCOMEONCAT, WEGOTTOLDYOUGOTSOLD.

R3

Complexity
King for a Day
Calumet entry

#2 COMPLEXITY: Fetched $375,000 last year at Keeneland and has been working very well ahead of his unveiling. The inside draw isn’t ideal, but he’s a half-brother to Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up Valadorna and has been working to the pedigree; #7 KING FOR A DAY: Is a half-brother to a stakes winner and is another with some flashy local drills ahead of his debut. The outside draw helps, and the Velazquez/Pletcher tandem certainly merits respect; CALUMET ENTRY: I prefer #1 SOUTHERN PHANTOM, who’s run two OK races to this point. He’ll get plenty of support at the windows for reasons that have nothing to do with his form, but he could certainly run well enough to be a factor.

R4

Deep Sea
Full Salute
Rockford

#4 DEEP SEA: Has won three of five starts since being claimed by Jason Servis, who’s enjoyed a stellar summer. He actually drops in class off of his win at Monmouth, and if he carries that form up I-87, he’ll be the one to beat; #6 FULL SALUTE: Was claimed out of a race against higher-level claimers earlier in the meet by Gary Gullo, who connects at a high rate with new acquisitions. He won’t be alone on the front end, but he should appreciate the class relief; #1 ROCKFORD: Is a stalwart of the NYRA claiming scene and will make his 54th career start in this race. He was a close-up second against similar foes last time out, and Joel Rosario sees fit to ride him back.

R5

Kulin Rock
Honey Dont
Dominant Strategy

#9 KULIN ROCK: Drops in for a tag after chasing allowance foes for most of the year. He’s a one-run closer, and that could benefit him given the abundance of early speed that appears to be signed on; #5 HONEY DONT: Bounced last time out in his first start against winners, but ran a big race two back in his lone effort against claimers. He will likely sit a stalking trip and could get first run on the pace-setters turning for home; #4 DOMINANT STRATEGY: Wired a field of maiden claimers earlier in the meet in a race that doubled as his turf debut. He may be coming around as a runner, but the chances of him sitting a perfect trip and setting a slow early pace aren’t great.

R6

Seek and Destroy
Princesa Carolina
Toy Moon

#8 SEEK AND DESTROY: Is bred to be a turf horse, but debuted with a solid effort going seven furlongs on dirt. She’s a half to graded stakes winner Tammy the Torpedo, and she should improve with a start under her belt; #4 PRINCESA CAROLINA: Didn’t do much running in her debut on the main track, but she’s bred up and down for grass. Her dam is multiple Grade 1 winner Pure Clan, who did her best work going long on turf, and there are no quibbles with top sire Tapit; #7 TOY MOON: Has gotten plenty of seasoning, and this will be her sixth start of the season. Her lone turf route race wasn’t bad, and that experience could help her.

R7

Barely Impazible
Charlie McCoy
Discreet Mission

#7 BARELY IMPAZIBLE: Was impressive in his debut here last year, but went to the sidelines after that victory. He’s been working well at Monmouth and may have taken a step forward from age two to age three; #6 CHARLIE MCCOY: Exits a live race earlier in the meet, one where he ran second behind a next-out winner and directly ahead of another next-out winner. Manuel Franco returns to the saddle, and getting off the rail could help; #1 DISCREET MISSION: Responded to the sharp drop in class with a romp over a suspect group of claimers. He returns to a level he’s struggled at in the past, but there’s a chance he got some confidence from the recent victory.

R8

Saratoga Colonel
Major Attitude
Four Knights

#1 SARATOGA COLONEL: Gets a tepid top pick in a wide-open turf route. He exits a decent state-bred allowance race, and his efforts two and three back were both pretty sharp; #3 MAJOR ATTITUDE: Comes back to turf in his first start for Marcus Vitali, whose recent numbers with new acquisitions aren’t the best. However, his numbers over the years have been quite good in that regard, and it’s not like this is the strongest race for the level; #9 FOUR KNIGHTS: Put it all together last time out in his first start off the claim for Joe Sharp. He faces winners for the first time, but this barn may have him going in the right direction.

R9

Voodoo Song
Inspector Lynley
Projected

#1 VOODOO SONG: Is 5 for 5 at Saratoga and became a Grade 1 winner in this year’s Fourstardave. He seems like the lone speed in this race, and between the pace scenario and his back class, he’ll be very tough to beat; #5 INSPECTOR LYNLEY: Hadn’t won in more than a year before he took the Lure Stakes earlier this summer. He’s 2 for 2 at Saratoga and would be the chief beneficiary if another runner in here challenged my top pick early; #2 PROJECTED: Is a consistent sort and runs for the always-dangerous Chad Brown barn. He’s run second behind each of my top two picks in his last two outings.

R10

Mucho
Nitrous
Sombeyay

#7 MUCHO: Put forth one of the most impressive efforts by a 2-year-old this summer when winning by nearly 10 lengths. This barn isn’t necessarily known for his success with young runners, but a repeat of his last-out effort would make him the one to beat; #3 NITROUS: Won a maiden race last time out that featured a pretty solid group. He’s worked well leading up to this race for an outfit that must be respected; #1 SOMBEYAY: Overcame some adversity to take the Grade 3 Sanford in the opening stages of the meet. The rail draw isn’t great given his running style, but he’s yet to run a bad race and should be moving in the right direction late.

R11

Spring Drama
Lady Camille
Grand Banks

#14 SPRING DRAMA: Is strictly the one to beat if she draws in off the AE list. She’s run well against maiden special weight foes in the past, and this certainly seems like a much softer group; #2 LADY CAMILLE: Was third when favored at this level, but she did not have a great trip that day. The added distance is a bit of a concern, but I’m betting that she sits a cleaner trip beneath new rider Manuel Franco; #10 GRAND BANKS: Is 0 for 21 lifetime and has run second in three of her last four outings. She’s impossible to endorse on top, but her usual race likely gets her a piece of the meet finale.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 9/2/18

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,218.20

Heads up, everyone: Due to the 12-race program, post time today has been inched up to 12:30 p.m. Eastern time. The early start and long card both make for a pretty long day, but on the plus side, today’s program is excellent, with a really fun feature (the Grade 2 Prioress) that anchors the late Pick Four.

Out of respect for my editor’s deadline, and given that I like two horses that figure to offer value earlier in the day, I won’t give out a late Pick Four ticket as an official play (the last race goes off at almost 7 p.m., and that’s pushing it). Having said that, if you want a 50-cent ticket to play starting in the ninth race, the one I’d propose (assuming, of course, that races carded for turf stay there) would cost $20. That ticket is as follows: 8 with 4,5 with 2,4,5,6,7 with 1,4,7,10.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: I got bounced out of the early Pick Four right away, when Dowse’s Beach found his old form at a short price and turned my $36 ticket into confetti.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll have a pair of $20 win bets on the card, and they both come in turf races. #3 BEACH FRONT looks like an overlay at 7/2 in the second race given his turf pedigree and recent workouts, while #4 BELLA’S GAME doesn’t catch the strongest group in the fifth following a strong maiden win downstate and could provide some value given the presence of likely favorite Sweet Connie Girl. If one of them wins, it’s a profitable day. If both win, we’ll have a lot more to play with on closing day.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: It’s a Lovely Day, Race 6
Longshot: Miko, Race 11

R1

Take It to Scale
Merger of Banks
Ruler of the Nile

#8 TAKE IT TO SCALE: Drops considerably in class, but does so for aggressive connections, and the drop isn’t quite as alarming as that of this race’s other likely favorite. He sports a recent bullet work and got a cushy outside draw; #2 MERGER OF BANKS: Took a step forward in his first start for Rudy Rodriguez, which was a win against a much weaker field. There’s a chance these waters are a bit deep, but there’s also a chance he’s finally starting to figure things out following a positive trainer switch; #4 RULER OF THE NILE: Was a million-dollar baby last year but hasn’t panned out, hence the sharp drop in class. If he channels the form he showed in his debut, he’ll be tough, but that was nearly six months ago.

R2

Beach Front
Pipes
Quick Charge

#3 BEACH FRONT: Is bred up and down for turf and has been working well for a barn that’s had success with debuting runners. His 319 turf Tomlinson is the second-highest number in the field; #12 PIPES: Was a close-up third less than two weeks ago and will be tough if he draws in off the AE list. He’ll need to work out a trip from an outside post, but a repeat of the most recent race may be good enough to win; #5 QUICK CHARGE: May not necessarily be bred for turf, but he’s worked very well ahead of his unveiling and is a half-brother to seven winners. It wouldn’t be a shock if he’s ready to run right away.

R3

Almithmaar
Fully Vested
Mac Jagger

#5 ALMITHMAAR: Was up close to a very fast pace earlier in the meet going slightly longer. The cutback to six furlongs should help him, and he may prove tough to catch with a clean break; #2 FULLY VESTED: Led all the way last time out and makes his first start against winners. He may have been moved up by the muddy track, but that situation could present itself again here; #1 MAC JAGGER: Won first time out for a barn that isn’t necessarily known for success with those runners. He hasn’t been seen since April, and the rail draw isn’t ideal, but he’s worked well ahead of his first start in more than four months.

R4

Off Topic
Dance Club
Graceful Princess

#7 OFF TOPIC: Boasts a series of very strong workouts ahead of her unveiling. She’s not exactly bred in the purple, but she is a half to two winners, and these connections merit respect even in what could be considered a “down meet” for them; #1 DANCE CLUB: Had every reason to quit first time out following a lousy break, but rallied a bit and salvaged third. This barn’s horses tend to improve with experience, and the most recent work indicates that she’s taken a step forward; #4 GRACEFUL PRINCESS: Is by Tapit and out of Horse of the Year Havre de Grace, which alone ensures that she’ll take money. Her recent five-furlong drills are sharp, and this barn unveiled eventual champion Caledonia Road around this time last year.

R5

Solitary Gem (MTO)
Bella’s Game
Sweet Connie Girl

#4 BELLA’S GAME: May not have beaten a ton last time out, but did so in visually impressive fashion and seems to have come up against a very light group. The pedigree says she may get this trip, and she could still be improving given her relative inexperience; #12 SWEET CONNIE GIRL: Drops in for a tag after running third here earlier in the meet. Her closing kick may have been dulled by the yielding surface, and her best race may win this, but she’ll need to work out a trip from an undesirable post; #8 SHE DOESN’T MIND: Merits respect given her recent form, but while she’s collected plenty of minor awards, she hasn’t won in nearly three years. Her most recent race at this level was OK, but I can’t endorse her on top. DIRT SELECTIONS: SOLITARY GEM, TIZ PRICELESS, HAVANA AFFAIR.

R6

It’s a Lovely Day
Take Me to Hardoon
Girl of Tosconova

#9 IT’S A LOVELY DAY: Brought $185,000 at auction here last year and has every right to be a runner. Her dam was a stakes winner, and also a full sister to two other stakes winners; #6 TAKE ME TO HARDOON: Has been working well ahead of her unveiling, and the two most recent works really stand out. The full field will likely ensure a square price; #7 GIRL OF TOSCONOVA: May have hinted at some ability with her August 23rd workout, which was the second-fastest of 63 at the distance. She’s kin to five winners, and a full sister of stakes-placed runner Our Super Nova.

R7

Stand for the Flag
Utiki
Takecharge Mirella

#9 STAND FOR THE FLAG: Has been putting forth big efforts in the mornings ahead of her debut, and she’s bred to be a nice one. Her second dam is My Flag, making her dam a half to champion Storm Flag Flying; #6 UTIKI: Hammered for $175,000 earlier this year despite a very modest pedigree, which hints that she worked extremely well. Her recent gate drills have gotten stronger, which is always encouraging; #4 TAKECHARGE MIRELLA: Was second behind the very impressive Feedback in her debut and finished five lengths clear of the third-place finisher. She could improve at second asking, but given the well-meant firsters in this event, she may have to.

R8

Killeen
Year of the Kitten
Phone Funky Munky

#7 KILLEEN: Drops in class for this event after finishing third against higher-level runners here last month. Javier Castellano hops aboard, and he could sit a perfect stalking trip behind several that figure to battle for the lead; #8 YEAR OF THE KITTEN: Hasn’t won since a successful debut in November, but has had bad luck by rating in paceless races. He could get a much more favorable race shape here at a square price; #5 PHONE FUNKY MUNKY: Is another that’s been compromised by slow paces of late. He’s won over this surface before and could benefit from a switch back to the turf.

R9

Indy Union (MTO)
Mighty Scarlett
Too Cool to Dance

#8 MIGHTY SCARLETT: Drops down in class after chasing graded stakes foes in her last two starts. She’s shown she can get this distance, and her usual race would make her very tough to beat; #3 TOO COOL TO DANCE: Is the other half of a strong 1-2 punch for trainer Chad Brown. She’ll likely go early, and her two-back win downstate shows that she can get this distance; #7 FAST TRACK KATHERN: Is a “feast or famine” type that throws in clunkers sometimes, but when she runs well, she runs really well. This is a class test for her, but she’d benefit from an early speed duel, which could happen given the fair amount of zip some of these runners have shown. DIRT SELECTIONS: INDY UNION, GOODBYE BROCKLEY, FAST TRACK KATHERN.

R10

Mia Mischief
Dream Pauline
Dream Tree

#4 MIA MISCHIEF: Did everything but win in the Grade 1 Test, when she helped set a fast pace and was beaten a neck by a multiple Grade 1 winner. She cuts back to six furlongs, and it helps that she doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well; #5 DREAM PAULINE: Came off the bench running with a win in a swift allowance race earlier in the meet. Javier Castellano rides back, and she figures to be running well late; #8 DREAM TREE: Went 4 for 4 over the fall and winter before an injury sidelined her. This barn must obviously be respected, but it’s worth noting her two most recent wins came over suspect fields.

R11

Out of Trouble
Transaction Tax
Miko

#2 OUT OF TROUBLE: Hasn’t run a bad race since going to the Brad Cox barn last fall. She’s got three wins and three seconds in six starts since then, and her tactical speed is a big plus on the inner turf; #5 TRANSACTION TAX: Was third in a similar spot early in the meet after setting a very fast pace, but she’s won going two turns in the past. If my top pick doesn’t fire, this is the one that could benefit from an easy early lead; #7 MIKO: Prevailed over a weaker group a few weeks ago and has won twice in three local outings. She’s shown improved tactical speed of late, and this barn’s beginning to heat up as the meet draws to a close.

R12

Turco Bravo (MTO)
Master Plan
Sycamore Lane

#10 MASTER PLAN: Ended a long drought with a win at this route last month, when he prevailed by a nose over soft going. He’s probably better over firmer ground, and this may actually be a lesser group than what he beat in that aforementioned race; #1 SYCAMORE LANE: Takes a gigantic class drop after chasing a pair of Grade 1 winners in each of his last two outings. These waters are much shallower, and the recent bullet workout is a big plus; #4 NEOCLASSIC: Has won two of his last three races and makes his first start for Patrick Reynolds, who doesn’t claim many runners but reached in for this one back in June. He’ll do his best running late, most likely, beneath solid turf rider Luis Saez. DIRT SELECTIONS: TURCO BRAVO, MASTER PLAN, EXTINCT CHARM.