The Saratogian | Andrew Champagne

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 9/1/18 (Woodward Day)

Posted on August 31, 2018 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,254.20

In any industry, one is prone to bonding with colleagues. Horse racing is no different, and I’ve been fortunate to be surrounded by some extraordinary people over the course of my career. One of them is making his maiden voyage to Saratoga for Woodward Day, so it’s appropriate that I dedicate this section to him.

Danny Kovoloff is one of the kindest, most good-hearted people you’d ever hope to meet. He kept me sane for several years at a prior stop in my career, and was one of a few people I leaned on during a particularly rough situation about a year and a half ago. I owe him a lot, so here’s my request: If any of you readers out there run into him today, please ask him many questions about the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic, which doubles as his favorite race of all-time.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: We were alive to OK will-pays in our doubles, but could do no better than third in the second leg and dropped $20.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I think today’s Pick Four sequences are pretty attractive, and I’ll focus on the early one starting in the second race. My 50-cent ticket is as follows: 7,9 with 4,8,9 with 2,4,5,8 with 1,4,7. I’m trying to beat morning line favorite Weather Wiz in the payoff leg, and if that one fails to win, this could pay pretty well.

TOTAL WAGERED: $36

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Raging Bull, Race 9
Longshot: Hence, Race 11

Signalman
Frolic More
Fed Fever

#6 SIGNALMAN: Ran on late to be second behind an eventual graded stakes winner in his debut. He’s coming off a bit of a layoff, but he’s been working very well here for a barn that’s done well at the meet; #5 FROLIC MORE: Has been working lights-out here for a trainer that won with a debuting runner on Travers Day. If he runs to the work tab, he’s got a big shot to win first time out; #8 FED FEVER: Was bet a bit at first asking and finished well behind the promising Nitrous. He’s worked well since that race, and improvement seems logical at second asking.

Platinum Prince
Zoot Suit
Natural Order

#9 PLATINUM PRINCE: Was claimed last time out by Robertino Diodoro, who has strong numbers with new acquisitions. He hasn’t won in a while, but he drops to run here for aggressive connections; #7 ZOOT SUIT: Hasn’t run in a while and drops in class, but he could be tough if he channels some of his back turf form. He’s got plenty of early zip and should be prominent early; #8 NATURAL ORDER: Cuts way back in distance, but has some back turf sprints that aren’t bad. This barn has done well with a limited number of runners this meet, and Franco sees fit to ride back.

Business Cycle
House Limit
Brasstown

#4 BUSINESS CYCLE: Has run well in both of his career starts and looms large in this spot. His most recent race was his first outing since November, and any movement forward off of that race would make him incredibly tough to beat; #9 HOUSE LIMIT: Has been working very well ahead of his debut and draws well towards the outside. This isn’t the easiest spot in the world, but this barn’s gotten hot lately and must be respected; #8 BRASSTOWN: Makes his first start for Jorge Navarro after several outings at Woodbine. His lone dirt effort saw him check right out of the gate, which makes it an easy throw-out, and his recent works are sharp.

Team Colors
Attribute
Night Prowler

#5 TEAM COLORS: Came flying late to miss by just a half-length last time out. He was claimed by Robertino Diodoro, and he could benefit from a race shape that figures to be kind to closers; #8 ATTRIBUTE: Certainly seems like the main speed in here, especially given the presence of aggressive rider Kendrick Carmouche. He chased a very talented horse home last time out, and he could overcome a pace that will likely be swift; #4 NIGHT PROWLER: Hasn’t won in nearly two years, but drops in class and adds blinkers for Chad Brown. He’ll likely get a pace to close into, and these are shallower waters than he’s used to.

Plainsman
Uncle Sigh
Wooderson

#7 PLAINSMAN: Makes his first start following a trainer switch to Brad Cox. This is a pace play, as while he hasn’t won in a while, every other horse wants to be on or near the lead, which could set things up for this one to pick up the pieces; #1 UNCLE SIGH: Was second against similar foes earlier in the meet and generally runs the same race every time out. He may need to go early to secure position from the rail, but his best could certainly win this; #4 WOODERSON: Graduated earlier in the meet, and while he sat a perfect trip, he came home very quickly. Rachel Alexandra’s younger half-brother may be coming into his own, but he’ll likely need to go much faster early on.

Noble Spirit
Noble Nebraskan
Spirit Animal

#2 NOBLE SPIRIT: Was a solid third in his debut going two turns, which is never an easy route to travel first time out. George Weaver saddles a pair of contenders in this race, and this one’s worked well since his unveiling; #7 NOBLE NEBRASKAN: May finally get a chance to run for Weaver after scratching several times earlier in the meet. He’s bred up and down to be a strong turf horse, and I’ve been waiting for him to debut for weeks; #3 SPIRIT ANIMAL: Was a distant fourth in an off-the-turf event, and every bit of his pedigree says he’s a grass horse, so I can draw a line through that race. This seems like the trip he wants, and these connections merit respect.

Long Haul Bay
Uno Mas Modelo
Devils Halo

#6 LONG HAUL BAY: Ran terribly in a state-bred stakes race, but that was such a departure from his prior form that I’m ignoring it. I think it’s likely he bounces back to his early-season form, and if he does, he’s got a big shot in a wide-open event; #3 UNO MAS MODELO: Has won two in a row, including a swiftly-run allowance race earlier in the meet at a big price. Javier Castellano rides in this spot for a barn that’s hit with four of its 12 local runners this summer; #7 DEVILS HALO: Has won two of his three starts and has shown a lot of early zip. This is a class test, but he’s bred to get better with experience, and the outside draw could be a big help.

Strike Me Down
Hizeem
Vegas Kitten

#4 STRIKE ME DOWN: Made a big middle move last time out against similar-level foes, only to be beaten a neck. He always seems to fire, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he shows a bit more early speed in this spot; #10 HIZEEM: Broke his maiden earlier in the meet and tries winners for the first time. He’s worked very well since that race and has a big shot, but he must negotiate a trip from the far outside post; #2 VEGAS KITTEN: Add blinkers for the first time after an OK showing at this level in late-July. His lone win came when he was close to the pace, and the blinkers could get him involved early on.

Raging Bull
Therapist
Golden Brown

#3 RAGING BULL: Had a lot going against him in the Grade 2 Hall of Fame, but rallied and got up in the last jump over yielding going. The faster they go early, the more he figures to like it, and there’s some speed signed on here; #7 THERAPIST: Has won six of eight career starts, and while he’s beaten weaker groups in his last two outings, there’s a chance he’s peaking coming into this race. His flexibility is a plus, and he may be a bit of a price given the class jump; #4 GOLDEN BROWN: Prevailed in the Grade 3 Kent two back, where he beat eventual Grade 1 Secretariat winner Carrick. A dirt experiment in the Grade 1 Haskell didn’t go well, but this seems like the right level and spot for him.

R10

Chasing Yesterday
Restless Rider
Virginia Eloise

#7 CHASING YESTERDAY: Is the younger sister of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and ran very well in her debut at Del Mar. Baffert and Smith mean business when they come to Saratoga, and she’s been working very well ahead of this Grade 1 event; #11 RESTLESS RIDER: Has done nothing wrong to this point, as she’s gone 2 for 2 with two daylight wins. She has a recent bullet work to her credit over the training track, and the outside draw could be a boost; #3 VIRGINIA ELOISE: Made up lots of ground in the Grade 2 Adirondack, where she missed by just a half-length. There’s a ton of speed signed on, and this one’s bred to want the additional distance some of her opponents may be dreading.

R11

Gunnevera
Seeking the Soul
Hence

#9 GUNNEVERA: Came back running against a much weaker group at Gulfstream in a prep for this Grade 1 event. He was second in last year’s Travers and won the 2016 Saratoga Special here, so the surface isn’t a problem, and there’s a chance he’s only getting better in his 4-year-old campaign; #10 SEEKING THE SOUL: Missed by a head last time out in his first start since January, but that race was not the goal. He’s worked very well since that race, and he figures to be going the right direction late; #5 HENCE: Is inconsistent and sometimes throws in dull efforts, but when he’s right, he’s quite good. He could clunk up for a piece of it in a wide-open renewal of the Woodward.

R12

Santa Monica
Onthemoonagain
Lady Montdore

#5 SANTA MONICA: Has won two of three starts since coming to North America, including the Grade 2 Dance Smartly. She’s taken steps forward in every one of those outings, and her best race would make her very tough; #3 ONTHEMOONAGAIN: Had a rough trip in her North American debut, where she did not get through along the rail. She should improve off of that showing, and her races in France indicate that the added distance won’t be a problem; #8 LADY MONTDORE: Romped at this route earlier in the meet in a race that doubled as her first start in 11 months. A bounce is possible, but she’s another that showed potential overseas and could simply be putting things together with experience.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/31/18

Posted on August 30, 2018 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,274.20

Over the past few days, there’s been lots of chatter on social media about the possibility of Horse of the Year honors still being up for grabs. Some fans are backing Accelerate, probably the top older horse in training. Others are rallying behind Travers winner Catholic Boy, who has now won Grade 1 races on dirt and turf.

I respect both of those horses, but let’s get real for a moment. “Undefeated Triple Crown winner” is a resume that tops anything Accelerate or Catholic Boy could potentially put forth by the end of the year. Three and a half years ago, many of us were wondering if we’d ever see a Triple Crown again, and now we’re trying to act like it’s nothing special? Justify is Champion 3-Year-Old Male, Horse of the Year, and a first-ballot Hall of Famer. To those trying to create a debate where there shouldn’t be any room for argument: Stop the madness this instant.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: We were washed out of our action when the third race was moved to the main track.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: Honestly, this card looks chalky to me, so I can’t invest too heavily. I’ll focus on $5 doubles linking the seventh and eighth races of the day, ones that start with #5 BIG BIRTHDAY and #7 FRENCH EMPIRE and end with #7 NAPLES PRINCESS and #10 DANCING ALL NIGHT.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Chiclet’s Dream, Race 1
Longshot: Naples Princess, Race 8

Chiclet’s Dream
Barrel of Destiny
Dreamers and Me

#1 CHICLET’S DREAM: Has run second at this level on three straight occasions, but seems to catch a below-average field in this spot. She may have moved a bit early last time out and will likely be a very short price; #2 BARREL OF DESTINY: Was fourth in a state-bred stakes race earlier in the meet and comes back to the maiden ranks here. She may have been compromised by the yielding going last time out; #5 DREAMERS AND ME: Rallied to be second in her debut downstate and stretches out to two turns. While the added distance is a question mark, Bruce Levine has had a strong meet to this point.

Apartfromthecrowd
Playwright
Champagne Papi

#4 APARTFROMTHECROWD: Takes an alarming drop second off of a long layoff, but does so for a trainer probably looking to set the record for wins at a single Saratoga meet. As such, the drop doesn’t really scare me; #5 PLAYWRIGHT: Has run one poor race since late-2016, and it came off of a considerable layoff. He was second against similar-level opposition earlier this month and figures to be prominent early; #2 CHAMPAGNE PAPI: Merits a look underneath at a huge price. This race may set up for a closer, and he’s coming off of a runaway win at Monmouth Park.

Global Impact
My Mr. Wonderful
One More Tom

#7 GLOBAL IMPACT: Broke last in his debut but rallied to salvage third money. Chances are he got a lot out of that race, and he’ll be tough (especially with a clean break); #4 MY MR. WONDERFUL: Drops way down in class and comes back to dirt. His best race may have been his debut, where he ran second over this track; #3 ONE MORE TOM: Didn’t do much running earlier in the meet, but he adds blinkers on a drop in class, and that could be enough to wake him up.

Rymska
Penjade
My Impression

#6 RYMSKA: Reeled off three wins in a row last year before going to the sidelines. Horses often take big leaps forward from age three to age four, and her best effort would make her formidable; #5 PENJADE: Won four of six 2017 starts, and like my top pick/her stablemate, she makes her 2018 debut here. She may be a bit more pace-dependent than the fellow Brown trainee, though; #1 MY IMPRESSION: Has run against plenty of top-tier turf distaffers in her career and may have been hurt by the yielding going last time out. These connections must be respected, and she may be a price.

Quiet Company
Lady Grace
Egoli

#5 QUIET COMPANY: Led most of the way in an off-the-turf event last month, but had to settle for third money. She could take a step forward at second asking, especially over a surface she’s bred to like; #8 LADY GRACE: Fetched $300,000 at auction earlier this year and has been working well. This barn has been ice cold, but offspring of Kantharos tend to excel on grass, and this filly seems well-meant; #14 EGOLI: Needs lots of luck to draw in but must be respected if she does. Wesley Ward is tremendous with debuting turf sprinters, and the most recent work hints that she’s ready to run.

Scarf It Down
Bar None
Divine Interventio

#3 SCARF IT DOWN: Drops in class a bit after tiring at this route earlier in the meet. He hasn’t won in a while, but there doesn’t seem to be much speed signed on, and the likely race shape could play to his tactical speed; #2 BAR NONE: Ships up from Belmont and cuts back in distance. He’s run well going seven furlongs in the past, and the Ortiz/Rodriguez combination merits respect; #6 DIVINE INTERVENTIO: Was impressive when rallying to a runaway win earlier in the meet. This spot seems a bit tougher, and the pace may not be as fast, but there’s a chance he’s recaptured his early-2017 form.

French Empire
Big Birthday
Baccarat Fashion

#7 FRENCH EMPIRE: Cuts back in distance after running third going seven furlongs. She appears to have ample tactical speed and could still be improving; #5 BIG BIRTHDAY: Wasn’t sharp at short odds earlier in the meet, but her race two back going today’s distance was solid. A repeat of that effort would make her a player, but chances are we won’t get any sort of a price; #4 BACCARAT FASHION: Has shown lots of early speed on the Mid-Atlantic circuit and ships up for a barn that doesn’t run many horses on the NYRA circuit. Luis Saez sees fit to ride, and she figures to be a sizable price.

Dancing All Night
Naples Princess
Quick Quick Quick

#10 DANCING ALL NIGHT: Has made a habit of collecting minor awards, so the addition of blinkers could be a big help. Between that and the cushy outside draw, this seems like a “now or never” spot; #7 NAPLES PRINCESS: Has shown a strong closing kick and could be helped by the likely race shape. She was third in a tough allowance race earlier this month, and the faster they go out of the gate, the more this one figures to like it; #11 QUICK QUICK QUICK: Broke her maiden here last summer, and while she hasn’t won since, she returns to a sprint distance, which could be more up her alley.

Pocket Change
Big Rock
Rocket Heat

#8 POCKET CHANGE: Didn’t break well going a mile and ran into eventual Fourstardave winner Voodoo Song. He returns to his preferred distance and class level and will likely be backed heavily at the windows; #6 BIG ROCK: Found himself on the lead last time out, and that’s not the trip he wants. He’s 3 for 4 at this route of ground, and he could sit a perfect stalking trip; #3 ROCKET HEAT: Aired by four lengths at this route earlier in the meet and was claimed out of that event by a small barn that doesn’t claim many horses. He’ll likely set the early pace, and there’s a chance he’s fast enough to work out a comfortable trip.

R10

Heaven’s Creation
Problem Solving
Claire’s Kitty

#4 HEAVEN’S CREATION: Was claimed by Robertino Diodoro earlier in the meet and comes back to one turn. Toss out her turf races, and you’re left with a hard-trying filly that fits very well in the Friday finale; #5 PROBLEM SOLVING: Comes back to dirt and drops in for the lowest claiming tag she’s ever run for. Rosario and Baker make a very strong team, and she’s shown an ability to do her best running late; #3 CLAIRE’S KITTY: Comes back to dirt after a failed attempt on turf last time out. Her maiden win two back was fine, and she was third at this distance earlier this season.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/30/18

Posted on August 28, 2018 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,274.20

There are so many things I would’ve rather written about than this, but here goes: Twice during Wednesday’s Pick Six sequence, horses scratched with roughly 10 minutes to post. Bettors who did not mark alternates on paper tickets (mostly everyone, since ADW’s do not have spots for alternates) were transitioned to the post-time favorites, who did not win. In a sequence with a $2 million pool, many people and groups who invested lots of that money got the short end of the stick.

Simply put, there has to be a better way to do this. It’s 2018, and protecting the betting public must be among the top priorities of any racing establishment. There are certainly better options that are technologically possible, and it’s up to the racing world to put them into place. Whether that’s reconfiguring data to allow ADW players to mark alternates, refunding invalid combinations, or implementing some other solution, people in power have a duty to protect those that keep the game going. It’s my hope that those people live up to it and bring about positive change.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Somelikeithotbrown ran well in the With Anticipation, but was second behind Opry, who I did not use in exactas. After scratches, we dropped $24.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: My wagers come in the third, where I think #5 RADIANT BEAUTY could sit a dream trip on or near a very slow early pace. I’ll keep it simple and play a $30 win ticket in hopes that she goes off at or near her 9/2 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Mintd, Race 9
Longshot: Risp, Race 7

Satin Sheets
My Won Love
Sciacca entry

#3 SATIN SHEETS: Is a consistent sort that ran a good second in her first start after being claimed by Gary Gullo. That race came at this level and seems like a fairly strong one; #6 MY WON LOVE: Was third in the same race my top pick exits and would benefit from an early speed duel. She’s hit the board in all but one of her seven outings this season; SCIACCA ENTRY: I prefer #1A SCRIPTED, who drops back down in class and has run a few OK races on dirt in the past. She may not need to improve much off of that form to be competitive here.

Illudere (MTO)
Brown entry
End of Spirits

BROWN ENTRY: #1 FRONTIER MARKET could win, but #1A STRATEGIC OUTLOOK intrigues me most. He was a good second in his debut downstate, and it’s tough to make a first start going long like he did; #10 END OF SPIRITS: May have gone a bit too short last time out and stretches back out in distance in this spot. He was second in his lone two-turn effort to date and has shown a solid amount of tactical speed; #11 ARGONNE: Was DQ’d after crossing the wire first going longer at Belmont. He’ll likely take money today, but that race hasn’t come back the strongest and he’ll need to work out a trip from the far outside post. DIRT SELECTIONS: ILLUDERE, RAISING THE FLAG, RUCKSACK.

Radiant Beauty
Fast Track Kathern
Bramble Queen

#5 RADIANT BEAUTY: Led every step of the way earlier in the meet and could very well get an easy lead once again in this spot. There isn’t a lot of other early speed in this race, and she could be tough to run down; #3 FAST TRACK KATHERN: Has won two of her last three starts and was much the best here earlier in the meet. That came against much weaker opposition, but when she wins, she wins big; #4 BRAMBLE QUEEN: Ships in from Arlington Park after defeating state-breds there earlier this month. She’s beaten open company many times before, and she’s tried stakes foes on several occasions.

Stoney Bennett
Devine Entry
What a Catch

#6 STONEY BENNETT: Draws a cushy outside post and figures to be the main speed in this spot. He romped in the slop last month and will be dangerous if left alone on the front end; #5 DEVINE ENTRY: May have needed his last-out effort at Laurel Park, where he tired a bit late. He could take a step forward second off the bench for a barn that’s gotten rolling late in the meet; #1 WHAT A CATCH: Hasn’t won in a while, but ran a decent second a few weeks ago after missing the break. The rail draw isn’t ideal, but these connections merit respect.

Quietly Quick
Andretta
Truly Courageous

#13 QUIETLY QUICK: Comes back to turf, drops in class and cuts back in distance to a route she may have wanted all along given her pedigree. She needs a scratch to draw in, but I think she’ll be tough if she does; #14 ANDRETTA: Just missed downstate in her first start at this level, and like my top selection, needs some luck to run here. Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride back, and the versatility she’s shown is a big help; #9 TRULY COURAGEOUS: Seems like the main speed in this race and was second at this level and route last time out. This isn’t the strongest race for the level (especially if the AE’s don’t draw in), and she could be tough to run down if she gets away early.

Bad Student (MTO)
Sycamore Lane
Neoclassic

#7 SYCAMORE LANE: Takes a big drop in class to run here after knocking heads with some top turf runners earlier this season. The winners of each of his last two races are both Grade 1 winners, and these are much shallower waters; #12 NEOCLASSIC: Has won two of his last three starts and was claimed after the most recent victory by a barn that doesn’t fill out many claim slips. The post position is a problem, but he’s certainly a contender on his best day; #9 HIEROGLYPHICS: Was claimed by Linda Rice following a disappointing performance against much better foes. Rice can win with droppers first off the claim, but take note: Per DRF Formulator, while she’s 6 for 13 over the past five years with similar stock, all six winners were sent off at odds of even-money or lower. DIRT SELECTIONS: BAD STUDENT, HARDLY A SECRET, POSHSKY.

True Gold
Risp
Quick Charge

#3 TRUE GOLD: Has been working steadily ahead of his debut, and he’s bred to be a good one. He’s a half-brother to Gold for the King, a very sharp sprinter, and Charlton Baker means business when he enlists Joel Rosario; #9 RISP: Fetched $275,000 at auction and has an impressive series of works ahead of her debut. It’s been a long summer for this barn, one that doesn’t usually win with first-time starters, but this one may be well-meant at a price; #12 QUICK CHARGE: Needs a few scratches to draw in, but must be used in some capacity if he does. He’s a half to seven winners, including a few that won first time out, and the work tab looks sharp.

Stonefactor
Hannah’s Smile
Generazio entry

#12 STONEFACTOR: Returns to turf after a strong second in a race rained off the lawn earlier this month. Aggressive rider Kendrick Carmouche will likely send from the gate, and she seems to be the one they’ll have to catch; #13 HANNAH’S SMILE: Will almost certainly be favored if she draws in off the AE list. She’s shown a strong closing kick, and a repeat of her last-out effort (a second at this level at Belmont Park) would make her formidable; GENERAZIO ENTRY: I prefer #1 LULU’S POM POM, who graduated two back and comes back to the turf. She’s run well at this route in the past and could show some zip out of the gate.

Mintd
Guacamole (MTO)
Miss Technicality

#7 MINTD: Gets Lasix in her first start since coming to America and certainly merits respect. She was second in a stakes race before coming overseas, and her pedigree suggests that two turns won’t be a problem; #4 MISS TECHNICALITY: Won at first asking and did so while rating off of a slow early pace. The third-place finisher has since come back to win, and Rosario riding back is a plus; #9 VARENKA: Almost certainly needed her debut, when she was a one-paced third at Laurel Park. She’s bred up and down to go long, and these connections spot her ambitiously when she’s still eligible for maiden races.

R10

Suas
Dark Ops
Baker entry

#7 SUAS: Adds blinkers after veering out at the start of his most recent race. His two races at Belmont were solid, and he seems like the horse to beat, especially if he gets a cleaner trip this time around; #2 DARK OPS: Makes his first start since November and is working like he’s ready to run. The inside draw isn’t the best, but he could be sitting on a strong effort at a bit of a price; BAKER ENTRY: #1A READY TO ESCAPE seems like the more well-meant part of the entry. He’s been gelded since running second at this level in April, and he may not need to improve much off of that race to win here.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/29/18

Posted on August 28, 2018 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,298.20

This week’s edition of “The Dark Day Files” went live late Monday night and chronicled what I took away from a day trip to Lake Tahoe. I’d never been, but a trip there gave me a sense of perspective I didn’t really have before, in a number of different ways.

The write-up is online here, and a link’s also available on my Twitter page (@AndrewChampagne). As a reminder, I read everything that comes in through my site’s “contact” function. If you’ve got something to get off your chest, now’s the time to do so, since we’re less than a week from closing day!

MONDAY’S RESULTS: As I expected, Dr. Shane was prominent early on in the sixth, but he couldn’t hold off the closers in the race. We dropped $28. Sorry, Dan!

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: It’s tough for 2-year-olds to go two turns. It’s even tougher when the track running the race gets the distance of said race wrong and adds a sixteenth of a mile to the journey. That said, #7 SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN was incredibly impressive in his last-out victory, and I think he’s the one to beat in the Grade 3 With Anticipation. I’ll play $6 exactas that use him above #1 HENLEY’S JOY, #5 SEANOW, and #9 SWAMP RAT, and $3 saver exactas that use him below that trio. Finally, I’ll play $2 doubles starting in that race that single Somelikeithotbrown and end with longshots #5 JIMMY JAZZ, #10 WHISKEY RUN, and #11 MILARDO in the finale, a race where anything could happen.

TOTAL WAGERED: $33

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Brown entry, Race 4
Longshot: Milardo, Race 10

Dark Gemini
Dancin in the Rain
Last Shani

#3 DARK GEMINI: Always seems to fire and looms large in here following a second-place finish against similar earlier in the meet. He may benefit from the added distance he gets in this spot; #6 DANCIN IN THE RAIN: Put forth a career-best effort in graduating last time out at Monmouth. He was loose on the lead that day and seems like the main speed in here; #4 LAST SHANI: Goes out for Jonathan Sheppard, who must always be respected in these spots. He won two back and could sit a stalking trip.

Brooklyn Gerty
Salt Pond
Jordy’s Ready

#3 BROOKLYN GERTY: Showed speed last time out in her first start since May of 2017, but faded to fourth as the 6/5 favorite. She may have needed that race, though, and this certainly seems like a softer spot; #6 SALT POND: Took a step forward last time out when second at this level over a muddy track. Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride back; #5 JORDY’S READY: Has run reasonably well in three dirt tries at this level and gets a big rider switch to Luis Saez. Phil Serpe has sent out several horses that have won at prices at this meet, and he can’t be ignored.

A Bit of Mischief
Paddydunalot
No Deal

#5 A BIT OF MISCHIEF: Gets my top selection partially based on being a first-time starter in a race without much proven form. In addition, she’s bred to be a solid turf sprinter, and this barn has had plenty of success with similar stock; #11 PADDYDUNALOT: May have needed the last-out effort, which doubled as her first race in more than two months. She gets back to a sprint distance and drops further down the ladder for a barn whose horses are firing at a solid clip; #3 NO DEAL: Came from way back in her first start at this level and route to be beaten just a length. The 0 for 11 career mark isn’t ideal, but a repeat of the most recent effort could get the job done.

Brown entry
Shortlist
Slewacandy

BROWN ENTRY: Both #1 PROGNOSTICATION and #1A FINANCIAL SYSTEM could win this race. The former has won two in a row and came back running off a long layoff, while the latter is 2 for 2 and has worked his way up the class ladder; #6 SHORTLIST: Stepped forward in his first start for a new barn with a close-up second earlier this month. Luis Saez rides back, and he’d benefit from an early speed duel given his late-running style; #9 SLEWACANDY: Was left alone on the front end last time out and made his rivals pay, winning by more than nine lengths. This is a significant step up, but Velazquez rides back, and a similar trip isn’t impossible.

More Mischief
Chillinwithfriends
Midnitesalright

#3 MORE MISCHIEF: Dueled early in her debut, which came over a sloppy track she may not have appreciated. Her two works since that race have been sharp, and of the ones that have run before, she seems like the one with the most zip out of the gate; #6 CHILLINWITHFRIENDS: Had an adventurous trip in her debut, but still salvaged a third-place finish. That day’s runner-up has since come back to win, and she may have gotten a lot out of that race; #10 MIDNITESALRIGHT: Ran third in a stakes race last time out and draws a cushy outside post here. A repeat of that race puts her in the mix, although she may have been aided by the wet track she caught.

Sensible Myth
Englehart entry
Tres Charmant

#8 SENSIBLE MYTH: Drops in for a tag for the first time after trying stakes foes at Laurel Park. She may not have liked the Laurel turf course, and a repeat of her efforts two or three back would make her very tough; ENGLEHART ENTRY: #1A JAZZY JUDER almost certainly needed her last race, which came off a 10-month layoff. That day’s winner has since won again, and this one’s worked well of late on the training track; #4 TRES CHARMANT: Returns to the grass and to this route of ground, which brought this filly her lone win to date last summer. Some horses simply relish this trip, and this barn has done great work with turf sprinters of late.

Fair Regis
Y’all Wicked
Out of Orbit

#4 FAIR REGIS: Was a solid second against similar foes earlier in the meet and always seems to fire. She’s yet to run a bad race this year, and her usual effort would put her right there; #2 Y’ALL WICKED: Took a huge step forward with a wire-to-wire score last time out at Finger Lakes that doubled as her second win in a row. This is certainly a class test, but when this barn gets sprinters on the right track, they tend to stay there; #3 OUT OF ORBIT: Has run well twice at this level this meet and comes back for another try. The last-out winner ran well in a stakes race last week, and she could improve cutting back in distance.

Aveenu Malcainu
Summer Bourbon
The Caretaker

#9 AVEENU MALCAINU: Won twice at last year’s Saratoga meet and has flashed potential at times during his career. The blinkers come off after a failed experiment last time out, and he draws well in this large field; #6 SUMMER BOURBON: Hasn’t won in a while but figures to benefit from this race’s likely pace scenario. The faster they go early, the better this one’s chances figure to be; #4 THE CARETAKER: Has won two in a row after a long drought and could be figuring things out. His victory earlier in the meet was sharp, and it helps that he doesn’t need the lead in order to run well.

Somelikeithotbrown
Seanow
Swamp Rat

#7 SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN: Won the infamous race contested at the wrong distance earlier in the meet and did so looking like a serious, serious turf runner. A repeat of that effort could make him formidable in an intriguing renewal of the Grade 3 With Anticipation; #5 SEANOW: Wired the field last time out at this route and is bred to be a strong router. He may not get a similar trip, but there’s also a chance he’s improving and doesn’t need a perfect journey in order to contend; #9 SWAMP RAT: Is wheeled back fairly quickly after finishing second going shorter in the Skidmore. He’s shown a big closing kick, but there are serious distance questions on the stretch-out to two turns.

R10

Milardo
Jimmy Jazz
Whiskey Run

#11 MILARDO: Is a reluctant top pick in a race where I would advise using as many runners as you can afford. He makes his first start for this barn after missing the break in his debut at Arlington, and I’m gambling he wants this distance; #5 JIMMY JAZZ: Has been one-paced in two career starts to date, but is a recent gelding and gets a rider switch to Joe Bravo. Two turns could be right up his alley given the distance-heavy pedigree; #10 WHISKEY RUN: Has shown some speed going shorter, and while the pedigree doesn’t say distance, there’s a chance Luis Saez boots him to an easy lead and plays “catch me if you can.” In a confusing race without much proven form, that trip may be enough.

THE DARK DAY FILES: Lessons from a Day Trip to Lake Tahoe

Posted on August 27, 2018 by Andrew Champagne

On my day off Monday, I drove three hours each way to watch horse racing on television.

Before anyone calls me an idiot (in some cases, again), I suppose I should explain. You see, I had casino loyalty points that were going to expire in mid-September, and rather than start from scratch, I opted to make my maiden voyage from my home in northern California to Lake Tahoe.

I make a few trips every year to Las Vegas, and there are some similarities between the journeys to the two Nevada locales. When I lived in Los Angeles, it took between three and a half and four hours to get to Sin City by car, and it’s a similar-length drive from the Bay Area to Lake Tahoe. Additionally, there are agricultural inspection stops on both trips back that do nothing but inconvenience roughly 97% of motorists passing through.

However, that’s about where the similarities end. First, the drive from LA to Vegas is best known as a kind of competition. Everyone has a time they’re trying to beat (my personal best from Pasadena to a Vegas hotel is 3 hours, 32 minutes, and that’s without driving recklessly or hitting traffic), and everyone has a small town along the way they prefer to stop in for gas, food, or bathroom breaks (mine is Baker, which boasts a population of 735 people and, more importantly, an Arby’s).

The drive from the Bay Area to Lake Tahoe is anything but a competition. The last road one takes to get there is Route 50, which is mostly a two-lane road with intermittent passing lanes scattered about on the trek through the Eldorado National Forest. In other words, the trip could take anywhere from two and a half hours if you don’t hit traffic to four hours if you’re unlucky enough to follow huge trucks down that road with a peloton of your closest friends also in pursuit. I got there in three hours with a quick stop in Folsom (not at the prison), and the trip home took four with a dinner break in Vacaville.

Having said that, though, if you’re traveling during the day, you probably don’t want to hurry. Route 50 is one of the most beautiful stretches of road in the United States, and there are several improvised spots to pull over for photographs. Once you wind your way through the forest, you come out in the rare kind of ski village that also thrives during the summer.

Of course, if you’re in the neighborhood to gamble, that’s prominently catered to as well. In fact, once you weave through the village and get to the state line, two casinos greet you. Harrah’s is on one side of the street, Harvey’s is on the other, and they sit literally inches beyond the California/Nevada border.

As one can expect, both places weren’t exactly bustling with activity at 9:15 on a Monday morning. As the day went on, though, I noticed a theme. Unlike Las Vegas, which thrives on providing sensory overload at all times, Lake Tahoe provides a relaxing environment that struck me as incredibly refreshing. The race book was quiet, with jovial tellers and wait staff. The casino floor had outgoing dealers, and each table had open seats and low minimums. Las Vegas is a wonderful place, but between the crowds and the elevated minimums at busy times, there are some circumstances that give gamblers major headaches.

Those didn’t exist Monday in Lake Tahoe. Instead, what I saw were fun atmospheres with people having a great time. Horse racing types, take note: Gamblers don’t necessarily mind losing if external factors provide some bang for their buck. It wasn’t Vegas, but it didn’t have to be.

I spent most of the day in the race book at Harvey’s, and for the last two races on Saratoga’s Monday program, I spent time chatting with a group of maybe five or six people. We all wound up on the same horse in the finale, first-time starter Surge of Pride. The Linda Rice trainee won on debut at odds of 7/2, and we were all pretty fired up as we headed to the windows (which, by the way, boasted no lines the entire day) to cash our winning tickets.

To tie all of this together: I’ve used this space a lot over the past few months to advocate for fan education, which I believe makes for a more attractive gambling product. Fans that feel comfortable with the product bet more, and they’re much more likely to recommend what they do to friends who are curious. Judging by what I see on Twitter on a daily basis, we have a large portion of the racing fan base that would not recommend the sport to those close to them, and that’s a problem that must be fixed (Thoroughbred Idea Foundation, are you listening?).

It’s great to provide all sorts of data to fans and handicappers, and if that leads to betting action, then a large part of the mission has been accomplished. That’s a large part of what I do for a living, and I hope I’m doing a decent job of that. However, what also works is to provide an atmosphere people feel comfortable in. We can produce that in really simple ways. We can fix timing issues that should not exist in 2018, both with the scheduling of races at different tracks and the times of those races themselves. We can test proposed rule changes by asking if novices would understand explanations of said changes made in 15 seconds or less. We can find ways to legitimately grow the game by marketing to the people who keep it going with steady action, as opposed to those who come to the track once or twice a year and don’t put money through the windows.

Nevada, of course, also has legalized sports betting, and that’s the elephant in the room. When sports betting becomes widely legalized, we need to present the best wagering product imaginable in order to stay competitive. There are steps we can take right now that aren’t huge ones. It’s my hope that we take them, improve the gambling atmosphere in this sport, and give horse racing an improved foundation moving forward.