THE DARK DAY FILES: Justify, Social Media, Bad Behavior, and a Challenge

In an age where it seems like the only people who get attention on social media are the ones with the loudest, knee-jerk reactions to hot-button issues and breaking news, I prefer to take a contrarian approach. This is why I’ve waited a week to offer my thoughts on the retirement and legacy of Justify, who, to the surprise of very few, has seen his racing days come to an end.

I’ll keep my thoughts on Justify pretty brief, as there’s a much bigger issue I feel the need to tackle (more on that later). The words “undefeated Triple Crown winner” have only ever been uttered once before this year, and it was when Seattle Slew finished off a nine-race win streak in the Belmont. Slew, of course, came back to run as a 4-year-old, when he treated the racing world to several battles with the likes of Affirmed and Exceller, and in fact lost his very first start after the Belmont (in the Swaps Stakes at Hollywood Park).

Justify won’t get the chance to race into his physical prime. Instead, we must settle for horse racing’s version of a firework, materializing into something brilliant with rarely-matched flair and disappearing just as quickly as it arrived. Would racing have benefited from Justify running a few more times? Of course, but this is a horse that had nothing left to prove. “Undefeated Triple Crown winner” is as powerful a resume as an equine specimen can possess, and in a year where, to be blunt, the handicap division leaves much to be desired, there is no dirt horse Justify could’ve conceivably run against and beaten that would have enhanced his legacy.

As a voter for both Eclipse Awards and racing’s Hall of Fame, I can unequivocally say these three things.

1) Justify is Champion 3-Year-Old Male.
2) Justify is the Horse of the Year.
3) Justify is a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

With all due respect to the likes of Accelerate, Monomoy Girl, and others, “undefeated Triple Crown winner” is not a resume any other thoroughbred can top. Some may have a problem with him never facing older horses. I don’t.

This is where, unfortunately, my column takes a pretty sharp turn. If you’ve followed me on Twitter, you know that there have been a few instances where I’ve denounced the culture horse racing “fans” have created on social media. I put the word fans in quotation marks there because, in my opinion, if you’re not actively working to make the game better or more enjoyable for those who may see your content, you’re doing nothing productive, and you’re not a true fan.

At its peak, social media is a godsend. It’s a way to communicate with friends and loved ones, as well as a way to stay updated with regard to breaking news. I’ve made my career as a digital media professional for several different outlets, and I can attest to a number of times where the things social media allowed my employer(s) and I to do made for some pretty cool stuff. That’s one of the reasons I’m proud and privileged to do what I do for a living. At its nadir, though, Twitter is a cesspool where people with vile opinions and no regard for doing the right thing are given megaphones and an outlet for their rage.

Before I go further, two caveats: First of all, things that are openly satirical are usually okay. If it’s clear it’s parody, and if the stuff that’s being produced is all in good fun, it makes things more entertaining for everyone involved. If the subject can take a joke (and most people in racing are shockingly good-humored, or just don’t care about this stuff), that’s even better.

Secondly, I make an exception for people who make attempts to be critical in a constructive fashion. I have discussions about ticket structure all the time with a few handicappers I genuinely like and respect, and the exchange of differing viewpoints is all part of civilized debate, which is vital for any high-functioning society (and something that is becoming more and more rare of late!). I may disagree with someone’s thoughts on wagering theory. Someone may not think my ticket structure is sound. Both are perfectly okay, because there’s always an underlying element of respect in what’s being said.

No, my issues are with people who fit one or more of the following criteria.

– Think they know everything.
– Use the platform to say things to/about people that they would NEVER have the guts to say in person.
– Maintain a constant state of disrespect for those who interact with their content.

Needless to say, when Justify retired, many “fans” quickly checked one or more of these three boxes. A lot of people quickly determined that they knew more than Justify’s owners, trainers, or prospective breeders, while some others had incredibly strong views on his legacy and openly fought those who disagreed. There was at least one person who used this “opportunity” to bring up the incidents that occurred in Bob Baffert’s barn during the last days of Hollywood Park, when a number of his horses passed away under murky circumstances (Baffert was cleared of wrongdoing following a lengthy investigation, and you can read the report here).

I’ll ask one simple question, and I’ll happily take answers from anyone who wants to chime in: How does any of the behavior I’ve just described make the game better? People in racing that genuinely care about the sport are working hard to grow the game, especially given the likelihood of legalized sports betting within the next few years. This behavior, most of which is more suited for an elementary school playground, does nothing to entice people who would otherwise be new to the game to take an interest in it. Why do that when some of the most visible people on a social media platform come across as, for lack of a better term, completely miserable?

As a user of Twitter (chances are you accessed this column from there), you have the right to use the platform however you see fit, provided such behavior is covered by Twitter’s terms of service. With that in mind, shouting loudest, and in some cases most profanely or most condescendingly, does not make you a better or more authoritative source on the subject matter in question. Speaking as both a fan and someone who works in the sport on a daily basis, I have no patience for such nonsense, and it’s a big reason why I’ve taken a step back from my personal activity on the site.

If that makes me a snob, so be it. I’ve been called worse. The fact is that I expect better from people that read my content. Perhaps it makes me naïve, but I generally believe the people I interact with are good-hearted, intelligent folks looking to enjoy the sport that I’m lucky enough to work in. There’s nothing enjoyable about seeing stuff on social media platforms that’s downright rude.

We have a duty as racing fans to spread the good parts of this game to those who may not be as well-versed on the subject as we are. If we’re not actively doing that, we’re missing countless opportunities to make the game better at a time where, to be completely honest, the sport can’t afford it. If you think saying things you’d never say to someone in-person is more important than that, then I don’t have much time for you.

I’ll close with something that sums up my thoughts perfectly. If you’re a fan of the classic TV drama, “The West Wing,” you’ll love this. The lead-up to this scene is that Chief of Staff Leo McGarry is rallying the president’s senior advisors and challenging them to be better. It reflects the challenge that I’m issuing to you right now. If you think any of what I’ve said applies to your social media stances of late, stop it and realize that there are bigger issues in play here than egos and the need to be right all the time.

We can be better.

We must be better.

 

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/30/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $844.50

Three notes today. First (and most importantly), the Permanently Disabled Jockeys Fund is holding its annual Jockey Karaoke Night this evening at Vapor. It’s always a fun time and a great way to support a lot of former riders that are in need of assistance. Just bring earplugs, especially if Mike Luzzi and David Cohen attempt to re-enact their “performance” from five years ago (I still have nightmares).

Next, this week’s edition of “The Dark Day Files” will go online Monday night and examine the retirement of Justify, the social media reaction to it, and how it reflects a much bigger problem within the sport. Finally, I’ll be in the Saratoga backyard today for my once-a-year visit. If you see a tall guy in sunglasses near the paddock that resembles my headshot and doesn’t shut up, it’s probably me. Come say hi!

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Scratches reduced the cost of my Pick Four ticket to $18, and that’s a good thing, as Wow Cat ran out of racetrack in the Shuvee. In total, we dropped $23.

MONDAY’S PLAY: How will I celebrate my one day at the Spa this summer? By using part of my bankroll on a steeplechase race! In all seriousness, I think #5 MODEM is a beatable favorite given his apparent addiction to running second, as well as the weight he’s giving to his rivals. I’ll play $4 doubles using #1 IRANISTAN and #2 PERSONAL START, as well as #1 NOMINAL DOLLARS and #4 SAL THE TURTLE in the second. Also, I need some action on #4 SURVEY in the sixth, just in case he makes an easy lead and forgets to stop. I’ll play $1 doubles singling him that start in the fifth with #1 RHYTHMIA, #2 GUMP, #5 BACKTOHISROOTS, #7 JOHNNY TICKETS, and #10 CATCH ME IF U CAN.

TOTAL WAGERED: $21

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Lady Camille, Race 10
Longshot: Survey, Race 6

R1

Iranistan
Personal Start
Modem

#1 IRANISTAN: Has reeled off four wins in a row (three over fences, one on the flat) and looms large for powerhouse steeplechase trainer Jonathan Sheppard. He wired a stakes field going longer, and it helps that Nagle (who could’ve ridden another contender in here) is aboard this one; #2 PERSONAL START: Is another on a hot streak, as he comes in having won three straight. Most recently, he aired by eight in a Grade 2 event, and he seems to be in career-best form; #5 MODEM: Will likely be favored, but he’s burned plenty of money since coming over from Europe. He’s run second five times, and while he can’t be left off of vertical exotics tickets, I can’t be too excited about him on top, especially given the short price and that he’s giving up to 20 pounds to the rest of the field.

R2

Sal the Turtle
Nominal Dollars
Crafty Concorde

#4 SAL THE TURTLE: Had a rough trip against much better last time out and gets a rider switch to Ricardo Santana, Jr., who’s been riding very well to this point in the meet. He’s got plenty of back form and should be prominent early; #1 NOMINAL DOLLARS: Has three straight seconds against similar company and may go off favored. However, he’s burned plenty of money lately, and he may need more moisture in the track than he’s likely to get; #7 CRAFTY CONCORDE: Hasn’t run since October, but has worked well at Finger Lakes ahead of his seasonal debut. Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride, and if he’s ready, he could be a player.

R3

Battle Station
New York Song
McErin

#8 BATTLE STATION: Has yet to run a bad race sprinting and graduated at this route last summer. For a turf sprint, there isn’t much speed signed on, and he may be the one they have to catch; #7 NEW YORK SONG: Came back running last time out, when he missed by a neck downstate. His lone start over this turf course was a win, and he’d benefit from someone challenging my top pick early; #3 MCERIN: Was thought of highly enough by his prior connections that they sent him to Royal Ascot. His first start for this barn was a decent effort at Monmouth, and he could improve off of that.

R4

Zap Zap Zap
Benefactor
Lightning Buzz

#7 ZAP ZAP ZAP: Was claimed by the always-dangerous Brad Cox barn last time out, and that effort was too bad to be true. His two races here last year were OK and came against solid fields for that level; #2 BENEFACTOR: Drops way down in class and shortens up a bit off of an OK third against $25,000 claimers earlier in the meet. This is a much softer spot, and these connections had a lot of success this past weekend; #1 LIGHTNING BUZZ: Was claimed out of his last race by Jeremiah Englehart. He generally runs the same race every time out and merits respect on the trainer switch, but he certainly seems to enjoy settling for minor awards.

R5

Backtohisroots
Catch Me If U Can
Gump

#5 BACKTOHISROOTS: Ran well to be second in his debut at Churchill Downs, even though he raced greenly that day. His most recent work earned a bullet, and Joe Sharp has done very well with similar stock so far this meet; #10 CATCH ME IF U CAN: Fetched $55,000 at auction despite a very modest pedigree and has a few flashy works for a trainer that can win with first-time starters. Jose Ortiz has been enticed to ride, and that’s also a plus; #2 GUMP: Debuted with a solid performance before losing all chance at the break last time out. He drops in class and adds blinkers, and a repeat of his debut would give him a big shot.

R6

Course Correction
Midnight Tea Time
Survey

#9 COURSE CORRECTION: Exits a fast race for the level at Belmont Park and looms large for top-flight connections. It’s tough to tell how any of these runners will take to this route, but this one seems formidable; #5 MIDNIGHT TEA TIME: Was impeded late in his last start, which was his first try going close to today’s distance. I’m not crazy about the field he ran against that day, but he did have a legitimate excuse; #4 SURVEY: Will be a big price, but he’s bred up and down to run as long as possible. Additionally, he’s shown some early speed, which this field is light on, and that’s always a recipe for success on the inner turf course.

R7

Brattata
Originator
Mominou

#2 BRATTATA: Has never run a bad race on turf and most recently finished third behind Got Stormy, who won a Grade 3 at next asking. She ran well when second at this route last summer and gets a tepid nod in what strikes me as a wide-open turf sprint; #7 ORIGINATOR: Was second behind Road to Victory in a similar stakes race at Woodbine. Woodbine turf form sometimes doesn’t translate, but that one is a legitimate filly, and she’s never misfired going short on the grass; #4 MOMINOU: Has two wins and two seconds in four starts since switching to turf. She’s got plenty of speed and could be formidable, even though she’s trying stakes company for the first time.

R8

Special Relativity
Curiousncuriouser
Haynesfest

#8 SPECIAL RELATIVITY: Was third against similar at Belmont in his first start for these connections. Her record looks much better if you toss her turf races, and a repeat of the two-back win at Churchill would make her a major player; #5 CURIOUSNCURIOUSER: Romped against much weaker at Belmont in her first start for Chris Englehart. She’s 2 for 2 at this distance, and it’s possible that the trainer switch woke her up; #1 HAYNESFEST: Just missed going seven furlongs at Churchill Downs. The Tom Amoss barn merits lots of respect, and she’ll take money, but it’s worth noting she may be at her best going longer than today’s route.

R9

Focus Group
Classic Covey
Soglio

#4 FOCUS GROUP: Is 2 for 2 at this distance and longer and gets my top pick in a confusing turf marathon. There isn’t a ton of pace signed on, but he may be talented enough to overcome it, and at least you know he has the stamina for this trip; #7 CLASSIC COVEY: Was third in the Grade 2 Pan American two back before misfiring as an odds-on favorite last time out. However, that race aged well when Funtastic came out of it to take the Grade 1 United Nations, and he could easily bounce back in this spot; #1 SOGLIO: Was third in a Grade 3 last time out, and two starts ago romped at Churchill, but this barn had an ice-cold start to the meet and the rail draw isn’t ideal.

R10

Lady Camille
Merlins Muse
Frederica

#3 LADY CAMILLE: Adds Lasix second off the layoff after missing by a half-length downstate in her first start since September. She nearly overcame a very wide post that day, and a repeat effort would make her tough to beat; #7 MERLINS MUSE: Seems like a difficult horse to ride, as she’s found trouble in all three career starts. Still, she only finished a length behind my top selection two back, and she may still be improving; #6 FREDERICA: Took a big step forward when third at this level earlier this month. That wasn’t a particularly strong field, but this doesn’t seem like the most inspiring group, either.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/29/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $867.50

If you read Saturday’s Pink Sheet, you saw a cool article on fellow handicapper Sam Hollingsworth. He’s a very good horseplayer, but an even better guy that puts up with almost-daily requests from some annoying dude based in California to pass along the pick box. If you missed the article (written by this year’s hardest-working man in show business, Stan Hudy), it’s up on The Saratogian’s website.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Engage looked to be in perfect position turning for home in the Amsterdam, but Promises Fulfilled had something left in the tank, repelled the charge, and turned the $20 double ticket into confetti. One note: While California Swing ran second in the second race, that $5 win-place bet was cancelled when the race was switched from turf to the main track. If you’re curious, I would’ve made a whopping 75 cents on that wager.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: From a betting standpoint, this hits me as an excellent card. I’ll focus on the late Pick Four, where I’ll attempt to get a pair of singles home to finish off the program. My 50-cent ticket starts in the seventh, and is as follows: ALL with 1,2,5,6,10,11 with 4 with 1. I’ll also play a cold $5 double linking my two singles (Wow Cat in the ninth, Powerstroke in the tenth).

TOTAL WAGERED: $32

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Wow Cat, Race 9
Longshot: Uno Mas Modelo, Race 7

R1

Lou’s Chardonnay
Summer Punch
Promises Broken

#5 LOU’S CHARDONNAY: Hated turf last time out and comes back to dirt while also taking a steep drop in class. It’s always tough to predict if Churchill form will travel, but the recent local workout inspires some confidence; #6 SUMMER PUNCH: Has never missed the board on dirt and recently drilled a weaker field downstate. She’s been off for a bit, but this barn connects at a high rate with similar returning runners; #7 PROMISES BROKEN: Hasn’t won in a while, but cuts back in distance and takes a slight class drop third off the layoff. She’s shown ample early speed in the past, and the cushy outside post is a plus.

R2

Miko
Ultimate Cause
Lady Love

#2 MIKO: Is one of many in here exiting a strangely-run race on July 4th. I’m not crazy about the race itself, but this one seems like the lone early speed in the field. She won over this turf course last year and could sit a picture-perfect trip; #10 ULTIMATE CAUSE: Stretches back out in distance after finishing fourth against better turf sprinters downstate. The outside post isn’t idea, but John Velazquez getting the call should mean she gets a chance at an OK trip; #1 LADY LOVE: Found her form at Tampa this past winter/spring and ran on well in her first start for Charlton Baker. The lack of early speed hurts, but when this barn gets horses going in the right direction, they tend to stay on the correct path.

R3

Leah’s Dream (MTO)
Factoring
Glossy

#8 FACTORING: Won two in a row before a wide trip last time out. She finished fourth behind a next-out winner that day, and if this race stays on turf, she strikes me as the horse to beat; #7 GLOSSY: Beat weaker foes pretty easily last time out and is another that would benefit from a fast pace. She’s worked well downstate and is certainly a major player; #6 TEXAS MUSIC: Seems like the main pace presence here off a win at Presque Isle. Ricardo Santana, Jr., has gotten off to a strong start this meet, and she could get brave on the front end. DIRT SELECTIONS: LEAH’S DREAM, TEXAS MUSIC, PARANOIA.

R4

Always Shopping
Into the South
Rotate

#6 ALWAYS SHOPPING: Debuts for Todd Pletcher and is bred to be a good one. She’ll be ridden by John Velazquez and has worked fairly well leading up to her career debut, where she’ll likely be a short price; #3 INTO THE SOUTH: Was disqualified from second in her career debut at Churchill Downs, but unlike #1 MERADA (who exits the same race), she’s worked well since then. Improvement is logical at second asking; #5 ROTATE: Is very intriguing, even though Bill Mott runners often need a race or two to get going. She’s worked very well leading up to her unveiling and could be a square price.

R5

Anazara (MTO)
Alternative Energy
Tapping Colors

#4 ALTERNATIVE ENERGY: Fetched $280,000 at auction despite a modest pedigree and has worked well ahead of her debut. She boasts an impressive 336 turf Tomlinson rating and should love the grass for live connections; #10 TAPPING COLORS: Has had her chances, but stands a big chance here if she can repeat her efforts downstate. She’s been second at this level twice in a row and should be coming late; #7 MY BRONX TAIL: May have bounced last time out after a strong effort two back off the layoff. She has plenty of zip and could show the way early. DIRT SELECTIONS: ANAZARA, FACE IT, ALTERNATIVE ENERGY.

R6

Rugbyman (MTO)
Strike Me Down
Own Agenda

#5 STRIKE ME DOWN: Gets my top pick in an event that hits me as the best betting race of the day. He had a nightmare trip in the Queen’s Plate, but still rallied to finish fourth behind Wonder Gadot, one of the top 3-year-old fillies in North America; #12 OWN AGENDA: Graduated last time out and tries winners for the first time, but is bred to love the turf and should be pretty prominent early. With that in mind, he strikes me as an overlay at anywhere close to his 15-1 morning line price; #4 PRIORITIZE: Won at first asking going two turns at Gulfstream, which is never easy to do. His most recent race wasn’t bad, and it came in a fast race for the level, so there’s reason to believe there’s talent here. DIRT SELECTIONS: RUGBYMAN, PONY UP, PROVEN RESERVES.

R7

Lerner entry
Uno Mas Modelo
Have Another

LERNER ENTRY: I prefer #1 RUNAWAY LUTE, although #1A HONORABLE TREASURE could win, too. The former earned a 103 Beyer Speed Figure in a big win over state-breds, and a repeat performance would make him a major player in this wide-open event; #8 UNO MAS MODELO: Cruised home at this distance last time out at Churchill, and his record looks much better if you toss the two-turn races. His flexible running style is a plus, and I think he merits a look at a price; #5 HAVE ANOTHER: Missed the break a bit last time out and won two in a row before that effort. He’s 2-for-2 at this distance, and it certainly looks like he’s in career form.

R8

New York’s Finest
Battle in Seattle
Rocket Heat

#6 NEW YORK’S FINEST: Has not lost in four races at Saratoga, which makes him a must-use in all multi-race wagers. He looked sharp last time out at Monmouth, and he should be prominent early on; #2 BATTLE IN SEATTLE: Just missed when flying late last time out at Belmont, and the ample early speed signed on could set things up for a closer. He’s improved in all three American starts and could keep progressing here; #10 ROCKET HEAT: Is incredibly fast out of the gate and was second in back-to-back stakes races ahead of this event. The outside post hurts, as does the other speed signed on, but it’s tough to ignore him.

R9

Wow Cat
Farrell
Pacific Wind

#4 WOW CAT: Did not lose in eight starts in her native Chile and has been working very well for Chad Brown. This isn’t a field of pushovers, but all indications are that this filly is the real deal; #7 FARRELL: Has run very well in a pair of high-profile races lately, and she looks like the main speed in this race. It’s likely that she’ll be the one to catch going around the far turn; #6 PACIFIC WIND: Won two in a row before chasing Abel Tasman in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps. Her best race would make her a player here, although it’s fair to question if she’s better around one turn.

R10

Powerstroke
Singapore Trader
Cross Multiply

#1 POWERSTROKE: Seems like the lone speed, and on the inner turf, that makes him very, very dangerous. He was a good third in his first try at the level, and he may have things all his own way early; #14 SINGAPORE TRADER: Merits a long look if he draws in off the AE list. His races against maiden special weight foes were OK, and his best effort may have come here last summer when he was second behind a talented horse (eventual stakes winner Evaluator); #10 CROSS MULTIPLY: Ran the best race of his career last time out, when he was second at a price downstate. A repeat of that effort gives him a shot, but this is his first try going two turns, which isn’t an easy thing to do.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/28/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $887.50

The monsoon that hit Saratoga Friday afternoon came at a much-needed time for yours truly. The track had turned into one that was heavily tilted to horses with early speed, and given that I submit picks about 36 hours before each day’s first post, chances are any bias that pops up will work against me. Heavy rain like that, though, tends to reset the track, and a fair track definitely benefits me given the way I handicap and submit my content.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: I got washed out for the second straight day, as both of the horses I used in the second race scratched.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll have two main plays on the card. Assuming the second race stays on turf (no cinch given Friday’s weather and the overnight forecast), I’ll put $5 to win and place on #2 CALIFORNIA SWING, my top longshot of the day. Additionally, I’ll play a cold $20 double beginning in the seventh race that singles both #3 ENGAGE and #4 IMPERIAL HINT.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Friday’s Results: 3 for 9
Meet Results (to date): 19 for 68

Best Bet: Engage, Race 7
Longshot: California Swing, Race 2

R1

Carter Cat
Party With Friends
Halladay

#11 CARTER CAT: Improved at second asking and was beaten just a half-length in an off-the-turf event at Churchill Downs. He’s bred up and down for turf, and merits a long look if he draws in off the AE list; #6 PARTY WITH FRIENDS: Has several flashy works on the tab, as well as a high turf Tomlinson rating (314). He’s a full to a four-time winner, and the bottom side of his pedigree is incredibly strong; #5 HALLADAY: Is bred in the purple and goes out for Todd Pletcher, whose debut runners must always be respected. If there’s a concern here, it’s that he’s bred to go much further than 5 1/2 furlongs.

R2

St. Louie Guy (MTO)
California Swing
Nileator

#2 CALIFORNIA SWING: Could benefit from the likely race shape, one that should set things up for a closer. He was a good second at this level downstate, and he won over this turf course last season; #11 NILEATOR: Was claimed out of his last race by Eddie Kenneally, whose numbers with new acquisitions are very strong. He’ll need to work out a trip from the far outside, but his tactical speed should help; #3 WESTERN RESERVE: May be bet pretty heavily on the drop in class, but he hasn’t won in more than a year and there’s plenty of other speed signed on. On most of my tickets, I’ll try to beat him. DIRT SELECTIONS: ST. LOUIE GUY, DRIVEN BY THUNDER, NILEATOR.

R3

Consensus Thinking
Gray Nile
Air On Fire

#5 CONSENSUS THINKING: Drops in for a tag after two solid efforts downstate. He’s been working well up here, and he looms large on the drop in class for powerhouse connections; #3 GRAY NILE: Went way too far last time out, so it’s easy to toss that race. His efforts two and three back against similar-level foes at Churchill were fine, and it helps that the two-back winner repeated at next asking; #7 AIR ON FIRE: Has been gelded since his last start, which came at Prairie Meadows against straight maidens. His best race gives him a shot, but he’s had lots of chances, and it’s tough to trust him at a fairly short price.

R4

Fair Regis
Bowl of Kisses
Trouble for Skylar

#4 FAIR REGIS: Has run seven strong races in a row and comes in off a sharp win at Belmont at this level. Falcone has enjoyed great success with a smaller barn, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., chooses to ride this filly when he almost certainly had other options; #6 BOWL OF KISSES: Has won two in a row, including prevailing in a head-bob over my top pick last time out. There’s other early speed in here, though, so she may have to work a bit harder early on than she’s accustomed to; #2 TROUBLE FOR SKYLAR: Wants no part of turf and comes back to her preferred surface. She romped in her debut here last July, and I think she has a big shot to outrun her odds.

R5

Aurelius Maximus
Coast
Mucho

#3 AURELIUS MAXIMUS: Is one of the best-bred 2-year-olds on the grounds. He’s by Pioneerof the Nile, and his dam, second dam, and third dam were all graded stakes winners. He’s a half to Grade 2 winner Chief Havoc and has been working lights-out ahead of his debut; #10 COAST: Is a well-bred first-time starter from the Todd Pletcher barn that cost $500,000 at auction earlier this year. His dam was a Grade 2 winner, and he’s a half to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Balandeen; #11 MUCHO: Was second to Whiskey Echo last month, and that one came back to run third in the Grade 3 Sanford. Bill Mott trainees sometimes need a race to get going, and he could show improvement if he draws in off the AE list.

R6

Honorable Treasure (MTO)
Lunaire
Uncle Gio

#11 LUNAIRE: Gets my top pick in a race where half the field could conceivably win. This one hasn’t won in a while, but exits some pretty tough races and could get some speed to rate behind beneath Javier Castellano; #4 UNCLE GIO: Has run six solid races in a row, and has only finished worse than third once in that stretch. He cuts back to a friendlier distance, and John Velazquez keeps the mount; #9 PENALTY: Has run two solid turf races in a row and has a pedigree that suggests he wants this two-turn route. He’s a bit one-paced, but that could work to his advantage here given the added distance. DIRT SELECTIONS: HONORABLE TREASURE, CHRIS AND DAVE, DR. SHANE.

R7

Engage
Promises Fulfilled
World of Trouble

#3 ENGAGE: Beat a number of these rivals when second in the Grade 2 Woody Stephens, and he should once again be able to watch as a sizzling pace is set in front of him. He’s this race’s lone true closer, and he could come flying late; #2 PROMISES FULFILLED: Led into the stretch of the Woody Stephens before yielding and finishing third behind two closers. His one-turn races are strong, and he’s certainly got plenty of early zip; #6 WORLD OF TROUBLE: Looked like a future star when he smashed stakes foes at Tampa three back, but his last two races have been a bit of a disappointment. However, the Servis barn has been going great, so he can’t be completely dismissed.

R8

Imperial Hint
Switzerland
Warrior’s Club

#4 IMPERIAL HINT: Has seven wins in his last eight starts if you toss the Grade 2 Churchill Downs (which was contested in an absolute quagmire). He’s one of the best sprinters in the country, and he’s been working very well at Parx leading up to this event; #1 SWITZERLAND: Has come to hand for Steve Asmussen, having won four in a row. His win in Maryland was sharp, but he wasn’t exactly flattered when runner-up Long Haul Bay didn’t fire earlier this week; #3 WARRIOR’S CLUB: Looks much better if you toss his races at longer than seven furlongs. He may not be as talented as the top two, but this is his preferred trip, and he’s run well at Saratoga in the past.

R9

Hi Happy
Sadler’s Joy
Money Multiplier

#7 HI HAPPY: Seems like one of the few potential speed horses in a wide-open renewal of the Grade 2 Bowling Green. He’s one of many exiting the Grade 1 Manhattan, but unlike a few of them, he’s proven at this level given the wins two and three back; #6 SADLER’S JOY: Won last year’s Grade 1 Sword Dancer here and nearly added another such score in the Manhattan, when he was second beaten just a neck. He’s a consistent sort, but the question is, will he get enough of a pace to rate behind?; #8 MONEY MULTIPLIER: Was second behind stablemate Funtastic in the Grade 1 United Nations after winning the Grade 2 Monmouth two back. His best effort would give him a big shot, but one has to wonder if his favorite track is at the shore, not the Spa.

R10

Flameaway
Vino Rosso
Tenfold

#1 FLAMEAWAY: Has danced a lot of dances this year and run well against high-level competition. He’s got plenty of speed, his recent workouts have been sensational, and Jose Ortiz signing on can’t be ignored; #5 VINO ROSSO: Took a brave run at Justify in the Belmont before running out of gas and settling for fourth. His Wood Memorial win three back was good, but it’s worth noting he lost to Flameaway twice at Tampa earlier this year; #2 TENFOLD: May be favored given his third-place finish in the Preakness two back. Having said that, he’s still eligible for allowance conditions, and the Preakness being contested amidst a storm of epic proportions doesn’t give me confidence that the effort in question can be repeated.

R11

Reversethedecision
Frippery
Cash Out

#6 REVERSETHEDECISION: Was a fast-closing second in a stakes race at Monmouth last time out, and that day’s winner has since come back to win again. There’s speed signed on here, and this filly could finish off a big day for trainer Chad Brown; #4 FRIPPERY: Made a big middle move last time out at Delaware Park and couldn’t sustain it, settling for second in a minor stakes race. Arnaud Delacour means business when he ships here, and Joel Rosario’s presence can’t be ignored; #11 CASH OUT: Gets necessary class relief after spending much of her career in graded stakes races. She’s hit the board in two of them, and she’s another that could be moving well late in a wide-open finale.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/27/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $887.50

Last year, I made an appeal to NYRA management to reschedule the Curlin Stakes. The argument I made was that it steals contenders from the Jim Dandy, at a time where that race is already competing with Monmouth Park’s Haskell Invitational. Unfortunately, that scenario has come to pass this year, as Hofburg (who would’ve likely been favored in the Jim Dandy) headlines a field of five in the Curlin before a thoroughly unexciting group of five 3-year-olds goes postward in the traditional Travers prep.

I’ll reiterate my idea, just in case anyone in power is listening: Reschedule the Curlin for the Travers undercard, so that it serves a similar purpose to the Easy Goer on Belmont Stakes Day. I’d rather lose a few 30-1 shots from the Travers than legitimate contenders from the Jim Dandy, which will go with six or fewer starters for the fifth consecutive year.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: The Thursday finale was rained off the turf, which meant the Pick Four play I posted was washed out. As a reminder, all wagers in this sequence assume that races carded for turf stay there.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: We’ll get involved right away with tickets starting in the opener. #6 BANKIT is my best bet of the day, and in an attempt to extract some value from what appears to be a pretty chalky card, I’ll play $5 Pick Threes that use #1 NIGHT OWL and #6 BEACH WALTZ in the second and #1 ENGINEERS REPORT/#1A WEGOTTOLDYOUGOTSOLD and #6 CHANGE OF VENUE in the third.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Thursday’s Results: 2 for 9
Meet Results (to date): 16 for 59

Best Bet: Bankit, Race 1
Longshot: Freud’s Affair, Race 5

R1

Bankit
Lumberer
Cash entry

#6 BANKIT: May be the shortest price on the card, and for good reason. He chased a solid 2-year-old home in his debut, and this spot seems to have come up uncharacteristically light for a Saratoga 2-year-old race; #8 LUMBERER: Someone has to be second, and while I don’t think this one can win, I think improvement is logical at a big price. He chased the talented La Fuerza early before tiring badly, and the two recent works hint that he’s progressed since then for a sharp trainer; CASH ENTRY: Second-time starters #1 ANALYZETHISANDTHAT and #1A CENTER CITY could both step forward. I prefer the former, who ran an OK third in his debut on turf at Monmouth Park.

R2

Oldfashioned Style (MTO)
Night Owl
Beach Waltz

#1 NIGHT OWL: Has won two in a row and comes back to turf. The drop in for a tag is a bit alarming, but it’s not like this is a cheap claiming event, so it doesn’t strike me like they’re trying to dump the horse; #6 BEACH WALTZ: Has been running against stakes foes in her last three starts and gets much-needed class relief. This barn’s off to a slow start at the meet as of this writing, but there’s plenty of back form here; #7 HERA: Won at this level two back before faltering in an allowance race at Monmouth. She has tactical speed, and Luis Saez (who rode her to that win) comes back aboard. DIRT SELECTIONS: OLDFASHIONED STYLE, NIGHT OWL, BEACH WALTZ.

R3

Change of Venue
Dubb entry
Southeast

#6 CHANGE OF VENUE: Was eased last time out and takes a huge class drop for aggressive connections. A repeat of either race before that effort would make this one tough, and it never hurts to have Castellano aboard; DUBB ENTRY: I prefer #1A WEGOTTOLDYOUGOTSOLD, who comes off a long layoff. He’s been gelded since his last effort, and the recent workouts say he’s ready to run; #8 SOUTHEAST: Was claimed by Bruce Brown last time out and draws a favorable outside post. Joel Rosario has the mount for an outfit that’s quietly had success with new acquisitions.

R4

Belgian
Shangroyal
Canadian Flyer

#6 BELGIAN: Is stepped up in class in this spot after being claimed for $35,000 last time out at Churchill. He hasn’t won a lot, but he always seems to fire and he’s shown some flexibility in his running style; #2 SHANGROYAL: Is absolutely the horse to beat based on his back form. He’s very fast out of the gate, and on form, he’s the horse to beat, but why the class drop, and why is Ward also running #3 THE QUEENS JULES?; #1 CANADIAN FLYER: Was a stakes-level turf sprinter before going on the shelf last summer. At his best, he can fly early, and while he may need a race, chances are he’ll at least be a primary pace factor. DIRT SELECTIONS: SHANGROYAL, MINI MILES, BELGIAN.

R5

Charlie McCoy
Freud’s Affair
Wrong Ben

#1 CHARLIE MCCOY: Ran a colossal race in defeat last time out, losing by just a head at this level and distance. The possibility of a bounce is there, but I love his most recent work, and new rider John Velazquez has had lots of success with Michelle Nevin runners in the past; #10 FREUD’S AFFAIR: Merits a long look if the track dodges rain leading up to this race. He’s hit the board in his last 10 starts, and this barn has quietly posted a high win percentage with a limited amount of starters this year; #9 WRONG BEN: Has won two of his last three and steps back up in class. He’s got plenty of early speed and could be sent early by top rider Jose Ortiz.

R6

Out of Trouble
Vortex Road
Bareeqa

#3 OUT OF TROUBLE: Has improved significantly since going to the Brad Cox barn late last year. She’s finished second or better in five consecutive outings, and her last two wins came going two turns; #7 VORTEX ROAD: Has hit the board in her last eight starts dating back to October of last year and stretches back out to a two-turn route of ground. Like my top pick, she’s done some of her best work going two turns, and Castellano rides back; #4 BAREEQA: Makes her first start for Steve Asmussen over a turf course she absolutely loves. Perhaps she’s tailing off at age five, but if she channels her form from last summer (when she won twice here), she’s got a shot at a square price.

R7

Paula’s Pistol (MTO)
Glory to Kitten
Blasted Boss

#4 GLORY TO KITTEN: Found stakes company a bit too tough in her last two starts and takes a steep drop in class. This owner is an aggressive one, so said drop doesn’t concern me too much; #9 BLASTED BOSS: Got sharp at Fair Grounds over the winter, when she won three races in a row. She drops back down the ladder here and should be running well late; #10 MISS AJA BROWN: Won by more than seven last time out at this level after sitting a dream trip on an uncontested lead. It’s unlikely she’ll get that sort of trip here, but there’s also a chance Rudy Rodriguez has her going in the right direction, so I can’t completely ignore her. DIRT SELECTIONS: PAULA’S PISTOL, SILVER MAGNOLIA, LAKOTA.

R8

Uncle Mojo
Casses Story
Papa Shot

#4 UNCLE MOJO: Drops way down in class after setting the early pace in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster. His win two back in the slop at Pimlico was smashing, and anything close to the morning line seems like an overlay to me; #2 CASSES STORY: Ran second in his first start since January last time out, when he earned a career-best Beyer Speed Figure. A bounce is possible, but he’s won here before and could be going the right way; #5 PAPA SHOT: Hasn’t won in a while, but was a close second last time out against similar company. Perhaps his best days are behind him, but he could also be ready to run third off the layoff.

R9

Hofburg
Madison’s Luna
Zing Zang

#1 HOFBURG: May have been favored in Saturday’s Jim Dandy had his connections opted to run him there. Instead, he’s starting in this restricted stakes race, and I think he’ll be a bit closer to the pace than usual in this spot; #2 MADISON’S LUNA: Seems like the lone pace presence in this event and could dictate terms down the backstretch. This seems like further than he wants to go, but if the track’s playing kindly to early speed, he could get brave; #3 ZING ZANG: Came running late to be third last time out against older horses. They likely won’t go nearly as fast in this spot, but there’s a chance he’s getting better with experience.

R10

Lightworker
Third Card Down
Tequila Sunday

#15 LIGHTWORKER: Merits a long look in this wide-open finale if she draws in off the AE list. She was second at this level and route twice downstate, and she beat several of her potential foes here in her most recent outing; #6 THIRD CARD DOWN: Was bet to less than 6-1 in her debut against maiden special weight foes, but ran evenly and finished fifth. She drops in class and adds both blinkers and Lasix for a barn that can win with dropdowns; #4 TEQUILA SUNDAY: Was disqualified from a runaway win two back and then broke slowly last time out. She’s had lots of chances, but if she can channel the two-back form, she’s got a shot to break through.