The Saratogian

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/26/18

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $887.50

It’s good to be back east for the week, and it’s even better to spend most of that time seeing family. However, there are some adjustments that must be made (some good, some bad). In return for edible pizza, I must suddenly find things to do during the morning hours. Seriously, I’ve forgotten what to do when racing doesn’t start until the early-afternoon hours (as opposed to most East Coast cards starting shortly after I wake up in California). I’ve never been the brunch type, and I didn’t bring my golf clubs with me, so that’s out, too. Any ideas for how to spend the time?

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Time Warp didn’t break in yesterday’s fifth, and while Bull Feathers outran her odds to be fifth, that doesn’t do us any good. We dropped $28.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: With my standard reminder that my action assumes all races carded for the turf stay there, I’m going to focus on the late Pick Four, which starts in the seventh. I’ll play a $0.50 ticket using the following horses: 3,9 with 2 with ALL with 2,5,6,10. If a bigger-priced horse wins the John Morrissey, this ticket could pay pretty handsomely.

TOTAL WAGERED: $32

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Wednesday’s Results: 0 for 10 (OUCH!!!)
Meet Results (to date): 14 for 50

Best Bet: Secret House, Race 8
Longshot: Quick Quick Quick, Race 6

R1

Iranistan
Personal Start
Modem

#1 IRANISTAN: Has reeled off four wins in a row (three over fences, one on the flat) and looms large for powerhouse steeplechase trainer Jonathan Sheppard. He wired a stakes field going longer, and it helps that Nagle (who could’ve ridden another contender in here) is aboard this one; #6 PERSONAL START: Is another on a hot streak, as he comes in having won three straight. Most recently, he aired by eight in a Grade 2 event, and he seems to be in career-best form; #2 MODEM: Will likely be favored, but he’s burned plenty of money since coming over from Europe. He’s run second five times, and while he can’t be left off of vertical exotics tickets, I can’t be too excited about him on top, especially given the short price and that he’s giving up to 20 pounds to the rest of the field.

R2

Gravitating
Generalist
El Cucuy

#3 GRAVITATING: Takes an alarming drop to the maiden $20,000 level, but given the owner in question, that isn’t as big a red flag as it could be. His effort two back was quite solid, and he could benefit from a wet track; #4 GENERALIST: Is another dropper from a top barn, and he makes sense. He finished a few lengths behind my top pick in his debut two back, and he may have improved since then; #7 EL CUCUY: Closed for third in his debut, after which he was claimed by Michelle Nevin. The new connections have added blinkers, and he could move up at second asking.

R3

No Need to Appeal (MTO)
Black Canary
Touch of Bling

#7 BLACK CANARY: Has not misfired since the 2016 Natalma and looms large should this race remain on the turf. She broke her maiden at this route of ground, and the cutback in distance should suit her; #9 TOUCH OF BLING: Didn’t break well last time out and likely lost all chance as a result. Before that, she showed speed in a stakes race, and she should be prominent early; #4 QUALITY TIME: May have found six furlongs a hair too far last time out off the layoff. Her win two back at Gulfstream Park was sharp, and she didn’t run poorly at this route last summer. DIRT SELECTIONS: NO NEED TO APPEAL, PICTURE DAY, LEZENDARY.

R4

Mrs Vargas (MTO)
Love to Share
Fiduciary Values

#9 LOVE TO SHARE: Has yet to run a poor race going long on turf and drops in for a tag after missing by less than a length at Churchill Downs. She may need some speed up front, but if she gets that scenario, she may be tough to hold off; #10 FIDUCIARY VALUES: Was fourth in her debut, which came going long downstate. Routing at first asking isn’t an easy thing to do, and between the class drop at second asking and the addition of blinkers, there’s lots to like; #3 APPRECIATE: Will be a big price, but her two-turn races are actually okay. If she channels the form she showed in Florida, she could get a piece of it and shake up the vertical exotics. DIRT SELECTIONS: MRS VARGAS, LA FEE VERTE, RAG TOP.

R5

Diodoro entry
Top of the Page
Brimstone

DIODORO ENTRY: These connections have two chances here, and both horses can win. I slightly prefer #1 GOT EVEN, who has lots of early speed, ample two-turn form, and would benefit from a wet track; #4 TOP OF THE PAGE: Seems like the best closer in this event and ran a good second against similar last time out. If there’s a concern here, it’s that his best races have come at one-turn routes, and his two-turn races have left a bit to be desired; #5 BRIMSTONE: Ran too bad to be true last time out and was claimed out of that race by Rudy Rodriguez. His lone start at this distance was a win, and he’ll likely be asked to show speed early on.

R6

Alberobello
Quick Quick Quick
Indy Union

#4 ALBEROBELLO: Has run well sprinting, and her pedigree and running style hint that she’ll stretch out successfully. There doesn’t seem to be much serious early speed in here, so she could be a threat to wire this bunch; #3 QUICK QUICK QUICK: Ran a nice race last time out when beaten just a half-length at Churchill Downs. She showed improved early zip that day, and it certainly helps that she ran well here twice a season ago; #5 INDY UNION: Gets some class relief after chasing much better in a pair of Grade 2 races. She’s 0 for 3 over wet tracks, but two of those races were won by stakes winners Caledonia Road and Red Ruby.

R7

Big Muddy
Iona Mobe
Lunar Phase

#3 BIG MUDDY: Fetched $850,000 at auction in 2015, and it’s safe to assume a lot’s gone wrong, because he’s just now making his debut. Having said that, he’s worked like a real runner of late, and he’s bred to be any kind on any sort of surface; #9 IONA MOBE: Did everything but win when last seen in October. He debuted with a close-up second in a swiftly-run event at Keeneland, and this barn can win with runners coming off of long layoffs; #7 LUNAR PHASE: Merits a look at a price. He showed speed in his debut, adds Lasix for a barn that’s hit at a 21% clip with second-out maidens, and retains the services of Joel Rosario.

R8

Secret House
Mills
Terrible Day

#2 SECRET HOUSE: Was impressive in victory last time out, when he made a big middle move and had more than enough left in reserve. He’s got four top-two finishes in five 2018 starts, and he could sit an ideal trip just off the early pace; #7 MILLS: Is winless this year, but comes back to his preferred surface after a turf race that was far from bad. He was beaten less than three lengths by Patterson Cross, a stakes-caliber grass horse, and his races three and four back were both strong; #8 TERRIBLE DAY: Has been a much stronger horse since stretching out. He’s since finished in the top two in four straight starts, and he makes his first outing for new conditioner Tom Amoss.

R9

Long Haul Bay
Gold for the King
Eye Luv Lulu

#3 LONG HAUL BAY: Gets a tepid nod in a very strong renewal of the John Morrissey. The layoff lines hint that he’s had his issues, but when he’s right, he’s very good, as evidenced by his strong second in the Grade 3 Maryland Sprint behind Switzerland; #7 GOLD FOR THE KING: Ran a tremendous race last time out, earning a 102 Beyer Speed Figure while thrashing optional claiming foes by nearly six lengths. The question is, can he repeat such an effort? Given the quality of this field, he may have to; #5 EYE LUV LULU: Was third behind Limousine Liberal and Whitmore in the Grade 2 Belmont Sprint Championship. Those are two of the top sprinters in the east, but this isn’t as big a class drop as the condition book may have initially indicated, and he’s 0 for 4 at Saratoga.

R10

Pletcher entry (MTO)
Two Shakes
Paradise Retained

#6 TWO SHAKES: Is bred up and down for turf and debuts for top-notch first-out trainer Wesley Ward. She brought $310,000 at auction last year, and her recent workouts indicate she’s got potential; #5 PARADISE RETAINED: Hasn’t worked particularly fast at Monmouth, which makes the placement here very interesting. Jason Servis doesn’t ship in solely to fill the starting gate, and the pedigree gives her reason to be a runner; #10 SWEETER THAN WINE: Has been working well on the training track’s turf course for the always-formidable Todd Pletcher barn. If there’s reason for concern here, it’s the position, as she’ll have to negotiate a trip from an outside post. DIRT SELECTIONS: PLETCHER ENTRY, PARADISE RETAINED, LIORA.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/25/18

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $915.50

The section you’re reading right now was inspired by the “Battle of Saratoga” feature that once ran in the New York Daily News. Handicappers like Dave Little, Jerry Bossert, Bill Finley, and Sherry Ross (among others) would trade barbs while offering daily plays. It was the first serious horse racing analysis that I ever read, and it’s an honor to do my own version of it.

If you saw the news about that publication yesterday, you know where this is going. Upon purchasing the paper, its new owners laid off some of the best newspaper journalists in the northeast. Local newspapers are vital to communities in many ways, and given the wages, the hours, and other external forces obvious to anyone who follows current events, it’s tougher than ever to be a newspaper journalist.

I could go on, but we’re probably short on space at this point. At any rate, my thoughts are with the writers who worked their rear ends off and were shown the door. I hope they land on their feet.

MONDAY’S RESULTS: Another good day in the pick box, another bad day in the bankroll. Triple Chelsea didn’t take to the soft turf course at all, and we dropped $30.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: My action comes in the fifth race, a fascinating maiden event for state-bred fillies. My top two are #4 BULL FEATHERS and #6 TIME WARP, who could both be nice prices. I’ll start $4 doubles there that also use #4 PURRFECT MISS and #5 PRAY FOR LESLIE in the sixth, as well as a $2 Pick Three that uses those horses (as well as #6 COME DANCING in the sixth) and singles #6 HOLLYWOOD CAT (my best bet of the day) in the seventh.

TOTAL WAGERED: $28

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Monday’s Results: 4 for 9
Meet Results (to date): 14 for 40

Best Bet: Hollywood Cat, Race 7
Longshot: Bull Feathers, Race 5

R1

Lord Justice
Officer Sidney
Mutasaawy

#5 LORD JUSTICE: Has yet to run a bad race over fences since coming to America last summer. He’s got some tactical speed, and the likely race shape could benefit him in the first steeplechase race of the season; #2 OFFICER SYDNEY: Has turned a corner in his last four starts, a stretch that includes a pair of wins. He was third behind two of today’s rivals last time out, but the cutback in distance should work to his benefit; #6 MUTASAAWY: Would benefit from a fast pace and figures to be going best of all late. He won an allowance here last summer, and his win two back was sharp, but he may need a specific setup.

R2

Raging Town
Terralsole
North End

#4 RAGING TOWN: May desperately need the drop in class, but I’m willing to give her a shot. She seems like the main speed, and the addition of blinkers could give her an even bigger edge in that regard; #2 TERRALSOLE: Hasn’t run since December, but merits a look at a price. The Bond barn has quietly had a solid year to this point, and she ran third against a much better group when she was last seen; #6 NORTH END: Makes her first start for Jorge Abreu and drops in class. I’m willing to consider that she hates Aqueduct’s new main track, and the most recent workout indicates she could be ready to run off the bench.

R3

Consensus Thinking (MTO)
Ding Dong Ditch
Sport

#6 DING DONG DITCH: Comes to the Todd Pletcher barn and drops in class after being beaten as the favorite on Kentucky Derby Day. That was a funky turf course that day, so I’m more than willing to excuse it, and he’s got back races that, if repeated, would make him tough here; #4 SPORT: Has had plenty of chances, but came back running off a long layoff when second at this level. I usually don’t like betting horses that have had this many opportunities, but his usual race probably gets him a big piece of it; #9 WISELY: Has been gelded since his last start and drops in for a tag for the first time. His two-turn turf races aren’t bad, and this seems like the right level. DIRT SELECTIONS: CONSENSUS THINKING, CURLIN’S NEW MOON, HOT MESA.

R4

Summer Bourbon
Riff Raff
Rectify

#5 SUMMER BOURBON: Just missed last time out at Belmont Park when rallying from much further back than he’d been accustomed to racing. He may show more tactical speed today, and it’s tough to quibble with these connections; #2 RIFF RAFF: Is another that could benefit from the likely race shape. He hasn’t won in a while, but he was a good second last time out and it’s worth noting the presence of Joel Rosario; #3 RECTIFY: Loves Saratoga and comes in off a clear win against lesser foes. He’ll be one of a few in here that wants the early lead.

R5

Time Warp
Bull Feathers
Chillinwithfriends

#6 TIME WARP: Fetched $230,000 at auction here last year and has been working well for a trainer whose horses often need a race or two to get going. Her female family has links to high-quality horses Editor’s Note and Hold That Tiger, so she’s got every right to be a runner; #4 BULL FEATHERS: Merits a look, especially at her morning line price. Her dam has thrown four winners (including two full siblings), and was herself a full sister to an 11-time winner. The most recent work may have tipped her hand; #9 CHILLINWITHFRIENDS: May be favorite given trainer Rudy Rodriguez’s high profile. It’s tough to read too much into her work tab, but Rudy’s snuck a few firsters by in recent years that fit this profile.

R6

Purrfect Miss
Pray for Leslie
Come Dancing

#4 PURRFECT MISS: Rebounded from a lackluster run in a Grade 3 to take an allowance downstate. She ran two very good races here last year, and there’s a chance she’s getting better for a strong trainer; #5 PRAY FOR LESLIE: Is undefeated through two starts and goes out for one of the hottest barns in the country. If she brings the Churchill Downs form here, she’ll be tough, but she set a pretty easy pace last time and likely won’t get a similar trip in this spot; #6 COME DANCING: Hasn’t raced since January, where something clearly went amiss in a stakes race at Aqueduct. Her recent workouts are sharp, but this race came up pretty salty for the level.

R7

Hollywood Cat
Stay Fond (MTO)
Codrington

#6 HOLLYWOOD CAT: Makes her first start for Jason Servis and returns to Saratoga, where she earned a stakes placing last summer. She gets a big rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., and this seems like a weaker-than-average race for the level; #11 CODRINGTON: Was claimed by Mike Maker after being compromised by a slow early pace last time out. She ran well here three times last season, but must negotiate a trip from a tricky outside post; #5 SWEET CONNIE GIRL: Merits respect if for no other reason than her trainer/jockey combination of Chad Brown and Javier Castellano. She was an OK fourth at this level when last seen in late-May. DIRT SELECTIONS: STAY FOND, HOLLYWOOD CAT, SOLITARY GEM.

R8

Mo Diddley
Ivery Sisters entry
Mascarello

#4 MO DIDDLEY: Has gotten better with every start this season since coming back in turf races. His connections thought enough of him to run him in two graded stakes races a season ago, and his last effort was a good second behind a next-out winner; IVERY SISTERS ENTRY: #1A FOX RULES seems like the main speed in this race, while #1 OSTROLENKA merits a big chance should this race be moved to the main track; #2 MASCARELLO: Has won three of his last five, including a last-out victory at Suffolk Downs. He’s got a win and a second in two local starts and may get first run at the leaders turning for home. DIRT SELECTIONS: OSTROLENKA, MORRISON, ROYAL BLESSING.

R9

Faypien
Finley’sluckycharm
Vertical Oak

#5 FAYPIEN: Has a lot of speed, but has shown an ability to sit just off the pace that may be helpful in a speed-heavy renewal of the Honorable Miss. Cross out her dud in December’s La Brea, and you’ve got a filly that’s missed the board just once for the always-formidable Bob Baffert barn; #6 FINLEY’SLUCKYCHARM: Ran a bang-up race in defeat in last year’s renewal of this race. Her best effort could certainly win this, but her chances do suffer slightly if there’s moisture in the track; #1 VERTICAL OAK: May not be as fast as these on a fast track, but would love a wet track (which she could very well get). She romped in last year’s Grade 2 Prioress here in a bog, and a repeat of that race would put her right there.

R10

Rucksack (MTO)
Spring On Curlin
Four Knights

#7 SPRING ON CURLIN: Has had a ton of chances, but drops to the lowest level he’s ever run at and gets a very significant rider switch to Joel Rosario. Arguably his best race came here last summer at this route; #11 FOUR KNIGHTS: Has been gelded since being claimed by Joe Sharp. He goes back to the turf, and his two-turn grass races are OK enough to give him a big shot here; #2 MONEIGH MOPROBLEMS: Drops down in class and exits the same race my top pick comes out of. He’s shown a solid closing kick, but he may not get much pace to run at in this spot. DIRT SELECTIONS: RUCKSACK, SPRING ON CURLIN, SACRED WALK.

THE DARK DAY FILES: The Value of the Grand Slam

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Last year, I debuted a weekly series entitled “The Dark Day Files” as a way to provide content on Tuesdays, which are, of course, the lone dark days of Saratoga’s summer meeting. The content seemed to go over well, so I’m back again for another go-round.

A necessary note before we start: If you have an idea for an installment of “The Dark Day Files,” don’t hesitate to reach out. You can tweet me at @AndrewChampagne, or get in touch by using the “contact” function this site provides.

This week, we’ll focus on the forgotten multi-race wager on the NYRA circuit. We all know about daily doubles, Pick Threes, Pick Fours, Pick Fives, and the Pick Six. However, one daily wager that can provide help in the everlasting pursuit of value at the racetrack has largely gone unnoticed. It’s not always a smart wager to play, but to this point in the Saratoga meeting, it’s provided strong returns on investment when hitting a certain criteria.

I’m referring to the Grand Slam, a four-race wager that usually ends in the card’s feature race. If you’re unfamiliar with the bet, here’s the gist: You must pick at least one horse to hit the board in the first three legs before picking the winner of the fourth and final leg. One can, of course, play multiple horses in each leg, and you can punch a ticket for as little as a dollar.

On the surface, it sounds gimmicky, and there are horseplayers I’ve dealt with who think it’s one of the worst wagers on the planet for various reasons. The Grand Slam isn’t a “hit this bet and retire” wager, nor will it ever be. Generally speaking, the ceiling is low with regard to potential payoffs (though that can be worked around given the possibility of one ticket having multiple combinations). In addition, I would recommend a cap of 18 combinations per ticket, as I’ve found that possible returns go way down following that point (with my recommended singling of a heavy favorite in the last leg, 18 combinations would be represented by using three horses in two of the earlier legs and two horses in the remaining one). However, in the right circumstances, you can use this bet to extract value from heavy favorites you wouldn’t otherwise want to touch at the betting window.

Say, for instance, you liked Monomoy Girl in Sunday’s Coaching Club American Oaks. If so, you weren’t alone, as the likely Champion 3-Year-Old Filly went wire-to-wire at the short price of 1/2. However, if you were alive to her in the Grand Slam, which ended in that race, you hit for $66.50 on every $2 combination. That works out to better than 32-1 odds, which made it one of the best plays available at the track for those who liked that horse and didn’t want to spend a mortgage payment on a multi-race exotic ticket.

The other driving factor for this bet is field size, especially in the first three legs. If the Grand Slam’s first three races include a race with five or six horses, chances are most tickets will be alive exiting that race, making it a less-enticing wager. However, if 30 horses contest those three races, the number of possible outcomes skyrockets. Add in a beatable favorite or two, or a bigger price sneaking into the exotics, and the potential payoff suddenly looks incredibly attractive.

Going back to the Sunday sequence, here were the odds of the top three finishers in each of the first three races.

Race #6: 5/2, 8-1, 3-1
Race #7: 8-1, 9/5, 5-1
Race #8: 7/2, 7-1, 9-1

There was not a single horse in the entire wager that hit the board at double-digit odds. Yes, there were several mid-priced horses that advanced tickets at 8-1 or so, and the favorite in the eighth race was off the board, but each race had at least one horse hit the board at odds of 7/2 or lower. If you used those horses, you were alive to two Grand Slam combinations (two runners in the sixth, one each in the seventh and eighth) going into the Coaching Club American Oaks, which, as mentioned, turned Monomoy Girl from a 1/2 shot into a horse that produced a 32-1 payoff.

This wasn’t a fluke occurrence, either. Saturday’s Grand Slam was anchored by Sistercharlie, who won the Diana at even-money. In the first three legs, field sizes were moderate (averaging eight horses per race), favorites went three for three, and no horse higher than 7-1 hit the board. However, the Grand Slam returned $22.20 for every successful $2 combination, thus turning Sistercharlie from an even-money favorite to a 10-1 shot. It’s far from a life-changing payoff, but I’ve yet to meet a horseplayer that would complain about multiplying a favorite’s odds by 10!

You won’t get rich playing the Grand Slam. Having said that, giving out ridiculously large tickets that require a Brinks truck to be hauled to the racetrack has never been my style. I’m here to help handicappers that may be on a tighter budget enjoy the game and potentially walk away with seed money for another day at the races, and there are days when the best way to do that is a wager that often slips through the cracks.

 

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/23/18

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $945.50

Two things. First, for anyone who saw Sunday’s Pink Sheet, a clarification: I was 4 for 11 Saturday, and 7 for 21 through the first two days of the meet. Through two racing days, that puts me three winners behind Liam Durbin, who’s gotten off to a tremendous start. Going forward, I’ll put my stats on the top of what I post online at AndrewChampagne.com.

Additionally, those who followed me last year will remember that, every Tuesday, I publish pieces called “The Dark Day Files,” which can range from handicapping discussion to streams of consciousness. This week’s edition goes live on AndrewChampagne.com Monday night, and will focus on the Grand Slam, an often-neglected multi-race wager that can sometimes provide considerable value.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Best bet Tied Up ran like anything but, as she faded badly (and abruptly) in the opener. That meant the $22.50 Pick Five ticket I played went up in smoke.

MONDAY’S PLAY: Once again, a reminder that tickets here assume turf races stay there. I’ll keep things simple, as I really like #3 TRIPLE CHELSEA in the featured Caress Stakes (race #7). I’ll bet $15 to win and place on her and hope we get the 3-1 morning line price on a mare that’s going really well right now.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Sunday’s Results: 3 for 10
Meet Results (to date): 10 for 31

Best Bet: Triple Chelsea, Race 7
Longshot: Wingman, Race 5

R1

Shanghai Schwartz
Mantle
Metaphorical

#5 SHANGHAI SCHWARTZ: Makes his first start since December for a new trainer, having been shipped to the Chad Brown barn. He drops in class, and his debut effort sprinting has aged well given that the two finishers in front of him (Soutache and Pony Up) both turned out OK; #1 MANTLE: Disappointed when favored against straight maidens in his debut for high-profile connections. He’ll take money, and perhaps he’ll improve, but the panicky drop of a $400,000 purchase raises a red flag; #3 METAPHORICAL: Was an OK second at this level last time out at Belmont Park. His two works since have been solid, and he’ll likely be a square price.

R2

Gabriella
Shanghai Dreams
Sardonyx

#8 GABRIELLA: Completely missed the break last time out and lost all chance, so it’s easy to draw a line through that race. She drops in for a tag for the first time, and if she repeats her two-back effort, she’ll be the one to beat; #7 SHANGHAI DREAMS: Ran a decent fourth in her debut against straight maidens after a wide trip. She drops down and gets Lasix for the first time, so there’s reason to expect a step forward; #6 SARDONYX: Has several OK races at this level, and it’s worth noting that Irad Ortiz, Jr., chooses to ride back.

R3

Seam
Overbook
Stormy Change

#5 SEAM: Broke through last time out in a big way, when she graduated by four lengths downstate. Her form looks much better if you toss the two Aqueduct races, she may be figuring things out, and this is far from the strongest race at this level; #3 OVERBOOK: Cruised home at Finger Lakes in her first start for Jeremiah Englehart and tries winners for the first time here. These are aggressive connections, so the spotting makes sense, and she’s the alternative if you’re not crazy about the morning line chalk; #1 STORMY CHANGE: Routed low-level maiden claimers at Monmouth and seems best of the rest. She showed improved early zip that day, which could come in handy here given the rail draw.

R4

Bourbon Mission (MTO)
The Postmaster
Somelikeithotbrown

#9 THE POSTMASTER: Got caught in the final strides last time out at Belmont, but ran a decent race in defeat and looms large in what seems like a soft group. The slight cutback in distance should help her, as should her experience edge on most of this bunch; #10 SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN: Makes his debut for Mike Maker, whose horses sometimes need the debut effort, but he’s been working well, and the presence of Tapit on the bottom of the pedigree is noteworthy. The outside post isn’t ideal, but he could be a runner and may be a square price; #5 PLEBE: Was third in the race my top pick exits and ran OK there despite it being his racing debut. He’s got some ground to make up on the aforementioned rival, but could step forward in his second start. DIRT SELECTIONS: BOURBON MISSION, WOODBURY, SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN.

R5

Ekhtibaar
Wingman
Transistor (MTO)

#9 EKHTIBAAR: Is slated to try turf for the first time, and his pedigree (by Bernardini, out of a Danzig mare) says he should love it. Additionally, if this race is rained off the turf, his main track races seem best of this bunch; #3 WINGMAN: Comes back to turf and drops down in class after running in races that were quietly pretty strong. The jockey switch to Luis Saez is noteworthy, and he could be flying late at a price; #7 ZORZOR: Hails from the Brad Cox barn, which has been hitting at a very high rate all year long. He’s kept solid company this year and must be respected. DIRT SELECTIONS: EKHTIBAAR, TRANSISTOR, ADMIRAL BLUE.

R6

Danebury
Stretch’s Stone
Becker’s Galaxy

#3 DANEBURY: Gets my tepid top pick in an optional claimer I found perplexing. He’s run well since coming off a brief freshening in March, and his affinity for wet tracks could come in handy; #2 STRETCH’S STONE: Stretches back out to two turns after running well in two sprints following a long layoff. Cross out the 2017 Wood Memorial, and you have a horse that’s never finished off the board; #4 BECKER’S GALAXY: Has changed hands a lot this year and comes back to a two-turn route of ground, which seems like his preferred trip. He’s made $400,000 the hard way and is easy to root for, but his 1 for 17 mark on wet tracks makes it tough to be too bullish in the event of rain.

R7

Triple Chelsea
Kirby’s Penny (MTO)
Tillie’s Lily

#3 TRIPLE CHELSEA: Has reeled off three wins in a row and is four for five this year, all in stakes races. She’s found her niche since being claimed by Joe Sharp, and she also seems like the lone closer in a race full of early speed; #10 TILLIE’S LILY: Is perfect over four different courses at three different tracks in three different states, which is a phenomenal achievement. She’s worked well since her most recent score downstate and would also loom large if this was rained off the turf; #2 MORTICIA: Got back on the beam with a win at Penn National. She’s ultra-consistent and hasn’t finished off the board since 2016, but has lost to my top pick twice this year. DIRT SELECTIONS: KIRBY’S PENNY, TILLIE’S LILY, FAYPIEN.

R8

Make the Rules
Harangue
Macha’s Reward

#1 MAKE THE RULES: Hasn’t done much wrong in two starts and stretches out first off the claim for Mike Maker. His running style hints that two turns won’t be a problem, and Javier Castellano’s presence inspires confidence; #3 HARANGUE: May have needed his last race, which came off of a five-month break. His best races have come going two turns, and Ricardo Santana’s gotten off to a great start at the meet; #9 MACHA’S REWARD: May be figuring things out, judging by the last two efforts (a win at Oaklawn and a second at Churchill). He’ll likely show speed from his outside post, though whether or not the form from other circuits will come with him is a valid inquiry to make.

R9

Mama Mary
Quietly Quick
Dreamers and Me

#10 MAMA MARY: Was bet heavily in her debut and ran OK to be third. The runner-up came back to win, and the fourth-place finisher, Shanghai Dreams, runs in the second race. If that one runs well, it flatters this second-time starter; #9 QUIETLY QUICK: Comes back to turf and cuts back in distance for a barn that’s done well with similar stock. Over the past two years, this trainer is 9 for 29 (31%) with similar turf cutbacks at NYRA tracks bet to 10-1 or lower (per DRF Formulator), and her turf races have shown promise; #1 DREAMERS AND ME: Was a solid second in her debut at a price for a barn that isn’t known for success with first-time starters. The rail draw isn’t ideal, but a repeat of her last-out effort could be good enough for a big piece of this.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/22/18

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $968

You’ll notice a slight change to my analysis, as I’ve officially begun putting numbers next to the names of horses, just for the sake of clarification. This was a suggestion from a Twitter follower of mine, and I’m all for doing things that make my content easier to digest.

Periodic reminder: If you’ve got a suggestion, question, or comment, tweet me at @AndrewChampagne. I enjoy hearing from people who read my stuff, and you may even see a response to it in this bankroll blurb!

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: In one of a few “backwards exactas” in the pick box, Tee Up nosed Our Girl Abby in the fifth, which ruined our lone remaining double ticket following the scratch of Shape Shifter. We dropped $10.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: Given the rain that’s in the forecast, it’s worth a reminder that all plays in this section assume turf races stay there. With that in mind, I’ll dive into the early Pick Five and play the following $0.50 ticket that begins in the opener: 2 with 1,2,4 with 1,2,6 with 4 with 2,3,5,6,8. Singles TIED UP and ADULATION will likely be heavy favorites, but hopefully we can get a price or two home around them to make this pay a bit.

TOTAL WAGERED: $22.50

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Tied Up, Race 1
Longshot: Stealth, Race 5

R1

Tied Up
Pure Praise
Northernstreetgal

#2 TIED UP: Has been off since an easy score against similar competition at Keeneland. A repeat of that effort would make her incredibly difficult to beat, and it’s tough to see anyone here challenging her early on; #7 PURE PRAISE: Rated well behind a slow pace last time out in her first start for Jeremiah Englehart. Her lone win came over a sloppy track, so she could benefit from any rain that hits the area; #6 NORTHERNSTREETGAL: Drops in class, comes back to the dirt, and has run her best races over wet tracks. She could hit the board at a bit of a price.

R2

Casse entry
Two Dozen Roses
Mott entry

CASSE ENTRY: #1A CHOCOLATE KISSES seems better meant than #1 TOY MOON, but either can win. The former is a half to top-notch turf horse Synchrony, and her dam won stakes races on both turf and dirt; #4 TWO DOZEN ROSES: Has a series of turf works, and her second dam threw Beholder, Into Mischief, and Mendelssohn. The five-furlong drills indicate she may want today’s distance; MOTT ENTRY: #2B GLAZE is bred to love this distance and could improve off of her debut, while main-track-only entrant #2 ROTATE has a chance if this is rained off the turf.

R3

No Need to Appeal (MTO)
La Moneda
Complicit

#1 LA MONEDA: Has turned into a sharp turf horse and won two in a row downstate in impressive fashion. Javier Castellano regains the mount, and anything close to her last-out effort would make her formidable; #2 COMPLICIT: Has improved with every start and followed up her two-back maiden score with a win last month at Belmont. She overcame a very slow pace in the most recent race, and this barn’s certainly formidable with turf routers; #6 DOLCE LILI: Looks much better if you draw a line through the Grade 3 Valley View, which was followed by a six-month layoff. She may benefit from a return to a two-turn route of ground. DIRT SELECTIONS: NO NEED TO APPEAL, RILEY’S CHOICE, LA MONEDA.

R4

Adulation
Cavallotto
Benefactor

#4 ADULATION: Drops in for a tag for one of the most well-known owners in Saratoga. The last two races weren’t great, but he’s been competitive against much better in the past and Javier Castellano hops aboard; #1 CAVALLOTTO: Prevailed against weaker company last time out at Belmont Park and may be going in the right direction. He’s 2 for 3 in dirt sprints, and he may be a bit of a price; #2 BENEFACTOR: Is another dropping way down in class, and he’s been gelded since trailing a much better group. He’s got plenty of early speed, and a repeat of his effort three back would likely get him a piece of this.

R5

Domain
Point to Remember
Stealth

#5 DOMAIN: Has finished second in a pair of swiftly-run races at Belmont Park and has a pedigree that says two turns should not be a problem. His 85 Beyer Speed Figure from the most recent race is the top last-out number in the field; #8 POINT TO REMEMBER: Is bred up and down for distance and should improve in his third start of the season. He may be a bit more forwardly-placed in this spot; #3 STEALTH: Completely missed the break in his debut and has earned two bullets for workouts since then. Ian Wilkes charges tend to move forward with experience, and this one could present real value in exotics.

R6

Ventry Bay
Fuel the Bern
Bam Bam Blu

#3 VENTRY BAY: Loves Saratoga and exits a strong race for the level where the winner and second-place finisher both won at next asking. Wesley Ward’s on a bit of a cold streak in New York, but this one has back form that more than fits; #8 FUEL THE BERN: Has found his form of late and cuts back in distance for the strong Danny Gargan barn. It helps that he doesn’t need the lead to run well, and he could get first run turning for home; #5 BAM BAM BLU: Romped in the slop at Monmouth last time out and tries turf here. His pedigree says he could like turf, and he certainly merits respect if this race gets moved to the main track. DIRT SELECTIONS: BAM BAM BLU, CHANGE OF VENUE, WIN WITH PRIDE.

R7

Golden Award
Big Birthday
Communal

#5 GOLDEN AWARD: Stepped forward in her second start, when she held on for second despite setting a very fast pace. She’s worked well since then, and she could benefit from the cutback in distance; #9 BIG BIRTHDAY: Ran well in her first start off the bench, finishing third in a sprint at Belmont Park. She could step forward in her second start back, and the outside draw could allow her to work out a trip; #4 COMMUNAL: Was second in a race that features many runners that also show up in this spot. This barn’s horses tend to need a race to get going, so it’s a good sign that she was ready right off the bat.

R8

Critique (MTO)
Dancing Breeze
Stainless

#5 DANCING BREEZE: Ran third behind La Moneda last time out in her first start since November. She was a good second in a $150,000 stakes race before going to the sidelines, and a return to that form would make her tough; #2 STAINLESS: Is Grade 3-placed and could benefit from what seems like a lot of early speed. This barn does well with horses coming off of long layoffs, and she may be going best of all late; #4 QUEEN MUM: Has never finished worse than third in four starts to date. She tries turf for the first time, and her 353 turf Tomlinson number says she could love it. DIRT SELECTIONS: CRITIQUE, STAINLESS, QUEEN MUM.

R9

Monomoy Girl
Midnight Bisou
Gio Game

#4 MONOMOY GIRL: Seems like the lone frontrunner in a small field, which is almost always a tough combination to beat. She seems to be getting better as she goes along, which is a scary thought since she’s a neck away from being 8 for 8; #2 MIDNIGHT BISOU: Aired by six lengths in the Grade 2 Mother Goose, which doubled as her first start for trainer Steve Asmussen. It was good to see her win while close to the pace, but these waters are much deeper; #5 GIO GAME: Was third behind Monomoy Girl in the Grade 1 Acorn, an effort validated when the second-place finisher came right back to win the Indiana Oaks. Her lone misfire came in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, and she may be on the improve.

R10

Competitionofideas
Compression
East Moon

#9 COMPETITIONOFIDEAS: Just missed last time out in a fast race for the level. The outside post is a bit of an issue on the inner turf, but she’s shown enough talent to indicate she could overcome it; #2 COMPRESSION: Was third in that same race despite not having much running room turning for home. She could easily improve enough to win this race, although she’s found trouble twice in as many starts, which is a concern; #10 EAST MOON: Finished an OK second in her first start going long and tries turf, which her pedigree says she could take to. If this race gets rained off the turf, she figures to be the one to beat. DIRT SELECTIONS: EAST MOON, KIDORO, THAT’S SPEIGHTFUL.