The Saratogian | Andrew Champagne

Belmont Park Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: 9/9/17 (PLUS: Saratoga stats/recap)

Posted on September 8, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

It’s opening weekend at Belmont Park, and Saturday’s card is a good one. There are 10 races on the program, and I’ve got a pair of multi-race tickets that I’m putting online. I think there’s plenty of potential for a few prices throughout the card, and hopefully, we can connect the dots. If we do, chances are we’ll get paid!

$0.50 Pick Five

R1: ALL
R2: 9,10
R3: 1,5
R4: 2,5,6
R5: 1

84 Bets, $42

This is a bit more expensive than I’d like, and if you want to downsize to an early Pick Four or a smaller Pick Five ticket, that’s just fine. My listed ticket would make for an $6 Pick Four that starts in the second leg, so I get that logic. However, the first race is wide-open, and if we get a price home there, it could set the tone for a big payday. I’m hitting the “ALL” button there, and I’ll narrow things down elsewhere.

I’ll go with Triangulate and Devine Entry in the second, and I think both could improve in their second lifetime starts. I’ll also go two-deep in the third. Portfolio Manager makes his first start for new trainer Danny Gargan, while Conquest Sure Shot woke up in his first race on dirt last time out and may have wanted this surface all along.

I’m using three in the fourth, and while two are logicals, I’m also throwing in Indimaaj, who is bred to go a distance of ground and faded following a speed duel in his unveiling. That brings me to my single, which comes in the payoff leg. I loved Kahrumana’s last race, where she set a pretty fast pace yet hung on to finish a close-up third. There’s some speed signed on here, but she seems like the quickest of the quick, and I think the rail draw is a big plus.

$0.50 Pick Four

R7: 2,3,11,12
R8: 3
R9: 3,4,7,8,9
R10: 2,10,11

60 Bets, $30

The makeup of my ticket changed considerably when Far From Over scratched out of the eighth. He would’ve been a heavy favorite, and I’m left with a single in a four-horse field. Anyway, I’m using a price in the opening leg. Itsinthestars, Treatherlikestar, and High Jingo are all logical and will be bet, but I need to use Rock Ave. Road as well. She ran some solid races here earlier in the year, and the rider switch to Joel Rosario is colossal. She ran behind a few of these at Saratoga, but I think she’ll improve with the change in scenery.

The eighth is the Saturday feature, the Seattle Slew. Conquest Windycity seems like the lone speed in a small field, and I think he’ll be very tough. The ninth, though, is much tougher. I went five-deep, and I hope that’s enough. If Camelot Kitten is right second off the layoff, he probably wins, but there’s also the possibility he just hasn’t improved from age three to age four, so I want coverage.

I’ll go three-deep to close things out. Mineralogy scratched, and that opens up the field a bit. Tu Exageres was eased last time out at Saratoga, but he’s my top pick. That one didn’t do much wrong in three starts before that, and I’m willing to give him another chance. I’ll also use Peculiar Sensation and Real Creel in an attempt to close things out.

– – – – –

OK, time for some stats before we go. Saratoga was a big meet for me in a number of ways. I put up a LOT of content on this website, and I was very curious as to the audience it reached.

I’d like to extend a special thank you to those who read and shared my stuff, because the analytics surpassed my wildest expectations. My website, and the content that was housed on it, received approximately 12,000 views from mid-July through Labor Day.

I started this website in large part because there were certain things I’d been permitted to do with a previous employer that I was stopped from doing about six months ago. I’ve never intended to make any money from this website (note that I’m not charging for picks or content!). This serves the purpose of scratching the writing/handicapping itch, while also giving people a handy reference point to find out more about me. I never once thought I’d ever reach THAT many people, and I’m floored that I did. Once again: THANK YOU.

Admittedly, a large part of that traffic was probably due to the fact that I had a very good meet. I wound up as the leading print handicapper at Saratoga, which is one of the greatest honors I will ever earn in my chosen field (not to mention validation for a chip I’ve had on my shoulder for six months!). My projected winners won 128 of 400 races where I had at least one top-three runner left after scratches, which is an even 32% clip.

Even is a good word in another sense. My father and I dove into the numbers, and we both concluded that, if you had bet $2 on every one of my top selections to win throughout the meet, you’d have, yep, broken even. In gambler’s terms, my $2 ROI was $2, which is pretty incredible considering I handicapped and provided selections for every single race, including ones where I didn’t necessarily have a strong opinion.

I’ll be back in 10 months to defend my title, and hopefully, next year’s meet goes as smoothly as the one before it did!

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: Labor Day (9/4/17)

Posted on September 3, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $828.35

Closing Day is upon us, and it’s time for my usual round of shout-outs. Most notably, thanks to the staff at The Saratogian for once again having me in The Pink Sheet. Managing editor Charlie Kraebel, sports editor David Johnson, and the entire sports staff all do fantastic work all meet long, essentially putting out two newspapers’ worth of content, and this year, they did it while moving shop from the old office on Lake Avenue.

I’d also like to thank those who read my work this summer. Whether you saw it on AndrewChampagne.com, bought a copy of The Pink Sheet, or mooched someone else’s paper while at the track, I genuinely appreciate those who took the time to check out what I wrote and which horses I picked. It’s been a lot of fun, and I’m already looking forward to next year!

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: With the rain came surface changes and scratches, and we were washed out of all of our action.

MONDAY’S PLAY: Last year, I opted to let it all ride and it paid off, getting me closer to even on the year. This year, I’m doing something very similar. #7 YOUR LOVE looms large in the fourth race, and I think she’s a very likely winner, albeit at a short price. I’ll put all $828 of my bankroll on her, with $414 each to win and place. The question is, what do I do with the remaining 35 cents?

TOTAL WAGERED: $828

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Your Love, Race 4
Longshot: Something Joyful, Race 10

Marzo
Dirty
Enticed

MARZO: Was a million-dollar baby at last year’s Keeneland September sale and has worked to that price for powerhouse connections. The outside post is a plus given his inexperience, and I think John Velazquez can make his own trip; DIRTY: Has worked strongly here for a barn that can win with first-time starters. He fetched $120k at auction earlier this year, and is by promising young sire Maclean’s Music; ENTICED: Is bred to be a very good one. He’s by Medaglia d’Oro and out of It’s Tricky, who was a very good filly at her peak. The rail draw isn’t ideal, and this barn’s horses sometimes need a race, but he could win on his best day.

Escape Velocity (MTO)
Carbon Data
Son of Oahu

CARBON DATA: Drops down in class for an aggressive barn that clearly wants to win the training title at the meet. He’s been competitive against better horses, and his usual race would make him tough to beat; SON OF OAHU: Hasn’t won in a while, but has run well in each of his last two starts. Both of them came at this level, and he figures to come running late; SUTTER’S MILL: Was claimed out of his last race by Charlton Baker, who’s done very well with new acquisitions. He likely needs to step up, but his debut win at Monmouth was pretty good. DIRT SELECTIONS: ESCAPE VELOCITY, ITSABIGBOY, BUNYAAN.

Driving Me Crazy
No Hiding Place
Drover Crazy

DRIVING ME CRAZY: Has improved considerably in two starts for Jason Servis, one of which was an impressive victory at this route. He showed he didn’t necessarily didn’t need the lead that day, and given the speed signed on here, that’s a plus; NO HIDING PLACE: Takes a big drop in class after flashing speed against much better horses last week. Jose Ortiz hops aboard, and this one could appreciate the considerable class relief; DROVER CRAZY: Was claimed last time out at Belmont and takes a steep drop in his first start for new connections. He’s another that could relish the shallower waters, but such a steep drop this quickly also raises some concerns.

Your Love
Ring Knocker
Kelsocait

YOUR LOVE: Found the Grade 1 Test too tough last time out but won two in a row before that downstate. This does not appear to be the strongest race for the level, and her usual race would make her tough; RING KNOCKER: Must be a fun horse to own, having hit the board in 22 of 30 career races. She has not run a bad race in nearly a year, and she figures to be running well late; KELSOCAIT: Sports a solid win over this course, albeit against a weaker group. She has tactical speed and figures to be prominent early.

My Bronx Tail (MTO)
Rushing Fall
Tropical Wave

RUSHING FALL: Fetched $320k at auction last summer and is bred up and down for the turf. She’s by More Than Ready and out of a Forestry mare, and some of the recent workouts appear very sharp; TROPICAL WAVE: Didn’t do much running in her debut, but I’m drawing a line through that effort. She’s bred to go much longer, and this barn’s first-time starters don’t hit at a high rate. Improvement is logical, and we may get a big price; CRITIQUE: Was an OK second in her debut, which was rained off the turf. The experience helps, but the recent workouts have been a bit on the slow side. DIRT SELECTIONS: MY BRONX TAIL, LADY BY CHOICE, CRITIQUE.

Engage
Home Run Maker
He’s Bankable

ENGAGE: Ran very well in his debut, finishing a strong second behind a Hopeful contender. They went very fast early on in that event, and any improvement would make this one very formidable; HOME RUN MAKER: Fetched $205k at auction earlier this year and has been one of the fastest-working 2-year-olds on the grounds. He’s bred to be a good one, and he certainly merits consideration; HE’S BANKABLE: Probably wants to go longer, but can’t be ignored. His recent works are very sharp, and given the pedigree (by Arch, out of a Seeking the Gold mare), he could benefit if there’s any moisture left in the track.

Heart to Heart
Delta Prince
Projected

HEART TO HEART: Has one way of going, which is on the lead, and that could help him here. There’s not much other early speed signed on, and this one shouldn’t be hurt by any moisture still left in the turf course; DELTA PRINCE: Has done very little wrong since being switched to the turf. He’s won three out of four starts on the lawn, including an impressive win here earlier in the meet; PROJECTED: Has run second in each of his last three starts, including last month’s Lure. That was a swiftly-run race, and this one’s back class makes him a contender.

Jcs American Dream (MTO)
Tizzelle
Driven by Speed

TIZZELLE: Has two wins and two seconds in four career starts, including one that came earlier in the meet. That day’s winner came right back to win again, and this one has beaten several of today’s rivals in the past; DRIVEN BY SPEED: Has woken up since going to the turf, winning two races in a row. Both victories came in wire-to-wire fashion, and while there’s other speed here, this may be the horse they have to catch late; BAREEQA: Has won three of her last five starts, including a win going longer here last month. This is a class test for her, but this barn has had a very strong meet and Lezcano’s ridden well on this turf course. DIRT SELECTIONS: JCS AMERICAN DREAM, LEGALLY BAY, IRON MIZZ.

Mojovation
National Flag
Free Drop Billy

MOJOVATION: Was extremely impressive in his debut, winning in wire-to-wire fashion while being geared down late. The rail draw isn’t ideal, but the unveiling suggested there’s a lot of ability here; NATIONAL FLAG: Broke through last time out after a disappointing debut. That day’s runner-up runs in the sixth, and if that one wins there, it bodes well for this one’s chances in this spot; FREE DROP BILLY: Was a late-running second in the Sanford, and he’s bred to improve as the races get longer. The extra furlong should be a welcome change, and he figures to be going the right direction late.

R10

Lulu’s Pom Pom
Something Joyful
Objective Complete

LULU’S POM POM: Was the subject of a controversial disqualification many didn’t agree with last month (spoiler alert: I didn’t, either). She had a rough trip that day, and a repeat effort could be good enough to win; SOMETHING JOYFUL: Is bred to be a strong turf runner and has worked well ahead of her debut. Joel Rosario doesn’t ride for Jeremiah Englehart much, so it’s noteworthy that he’s signed on here; OBJECTIVE COMPLETE: Probably needed the race last time out, since it was her first effort in about seven months. Improvement is logical second off the bench if she draws into the meet’s final race.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 9/3/17

Posted on September 2, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $828.35

Add another issue to the “problems that arise when you’re 3,000 miles away” list. I handicapped today’s card with the weather forecast (lots of rain) in mind. Maybe I’ll be right, maybe not, but most of my top three selections in turf races include at least one horse that would improve if those races were moved to the dirt.

As tough as it was to put those together, it’s even tougher to compile a bankroll section. How can you put bets in when you don’t know what surface the races will be run on? It’s a difficult puzzle to solve, and hopefully, we’ll do alright amidst the challenging circumstances.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Separationofpowers was dueled into defeat in the Spinaway, and our Woodward exacta ran 1-3. As such, we dropped $50.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll cross my fingers, hope the races in question stay on the turf, and focus most of my action on the middle part of the card. I’ll play $8 doubles starting in the sixth with the #1 entry and #2 CAMPAIGN and finishing with #8 PINK SANDS and #11 MOCKERY. Additionally, I’ll take a $5 across-the-board swing in the Prioress with #2 SISTER KAN, just in case the race falls apart given all of the speed that’s signed on.

TOTAL WAGERED: $47

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Blue Atlas, Race 11
Longshot: Sister Kan, Race 10

Sudden Surprise
Smokem’s Charm
Proper Freud

SUDDEN SURPRISE: Is a perfect 3-for-3 at Saratoga, including a win last time out at this level going slightly longer. These connections must be respected, and he’s 2-for-4 over off tracks, so the anticipated rain wouldn’t hurt him if it showed up; SMOKEM’S CHARM: Has won three of his last four at Finger Lakes, with the lone loss coming to a horse that won here earlier in the meet. This barn has a history of success when shipping horses like these to Saratoga; PROPER FREUD: Likely needs to improve to win this, but is worth a look underneath given the likely race shape. He appears to be the lone closer in a race full of early speed.

Way Smart
Dream Passage
La Moneda

WAY SMART: Seems like the horse to beat if this race stays on the turf. She was a good second in her debut for a barn whose runners often need a race to get going, and note the rider switch to Jose Ortiz; DREAM PASSAGE: Seems like the main speed in here and could have a perfect trip on the lead. Additionally, she’s the lone runner in this race with an OK dirt effort, which could be handy if rain hits; LA MONEDA: Made a middle move in her debut and flattened out late. This barn has had a strong meet, and improvement is logical at second asking. DIRT SELECTIONS: DREAM PASSAGE, KAT O MINE, SMART AND SASSY.

Rich Daddy
Turco Bravo
Conquest Bigluck E

RICH DADDY: Hasn’t run a bad race in his last five starts, four of which have come for Eddie Kenneally. He exits an OK optional claimer at Monmouth, and he may be forwardly-placed in an event that lacks early speed; TURCO BRAVO: Cuts way back in distance after running fourth in the Birdstone earlier in the meet. He hasn’t won in a while, but this spot represents class relief, and he’d benefit from an off track; CONQUEST BIGLUCK E: Ships in from Canterbury, so there’s no gauge of how he’ll handle this track. However, he’s 6-for-15 lifetime, and his only start over a wet track was a win against similar foes at Oaklawn Park.

Jump for Joy
Anna Rae
Enterprise Value

JUMP FOR JOY: Ran an OK race in her first effort in more than a year last time out. She likely needed that race, and further progression would make her tough to beat here; ANNA RAE: Hasn’t won in a while, but take a big drop in class after spending most of her career running against much better horses. She didn’t break well last time out, so there’s reason to believe she’ll step up here; ENTERPRISE VALUE: Adds blinkers following a third-place finish at Delaware Park in her first start for this barn. The recent workouts are sharp, and note the presence of Jose Ortiz, who doesn’t ride for this outfit much.

Cashless Society
Unbridledadventure
Woundwithhereyes

CASHLESS SOCIETY: Is 2-for-3 in her career and hasn’t done much wrong. She beat a weaker group last time out, and she’s the one to beat for powerhouse connections if this stays on the turf; UNBRIDLEDADVENTURE: Has to be placed here given the high likelihood of this race being moved to the main track. She cruised home in a similar situation last time out, and her dirt form is miles ahead of the rest of the field; WOUNDWITHHEREYES: Hasn’t won in a while, but is a consistent sort who’s picked up plenty of minor awards on turf and dirt and can’t be thrown out. DIRT SELECTIONS: UNBRIDLEDADVENTURE, WOUNDWITHHEREYES, CHA CHA HEELS.

Campaign
Brown entry
Johnny Action

CAMPAIGN: Fetched $675k at auction last year and has been working very well ahead of his debut. He’s bred to handle either surface, and it wouldn’t stun me if he’s left in even if this race gets moved to dirt; BROWN ENTRY: Both VOTING CONTROL and TRANSFER PRICING have worked well, with the latter drawing in if this race is moved off the turf. Either way, it wouldn’t be shocking if that barn runs 1-2, since Brown also trains my top pick; JOHNNY ACTION: May have needed his debut, where he was one-paced and ran into Untamed Domain. That rival came back to run well in a Grade 3, so it could have been a very live spot. DIRT SELECTIONS: CAMPAIGN, TRANSFER PRICING, LONE SAILOR.

Mockery
Pink Sands
Elenathena

MOCKERY: Merits lots of respect if she draws in off the AE list. She was a late-running third in her debut, and the second-place finisher has since come back to graduate; PINK SANDS: Was a $625k auction purchase last year and has worked to that purchase price. This barn’s horses often need a race, but the presence of Javier Castellano could signal good intentions; ELENATHENA: Has worked well leading up to her unveiling for a barn that hits at a high percentage with first-time starters.

Rubilinda
Repole entry
Kahrumana

RUBILINDA: Has done little wrong in two career starts, winning her debut and running second behind a perfect-trip winner last time out. If this daughter of Frankel steps forward, she should be moving best of all late; REPOLE ENTRY: OVERNEGOTIATE was a good second last time out at this level, while THIRSTFORTHECUP is the lone main-track-only entrant in this field and looms large if the race is moved to the main track; KAHRUMANA: Set a pretty fast pace last time out, yet still hung on for third money. She may not be alone up front, but if she makes an easier lead, she could get brave. DIRT SELECTIONS: THIRSTFORTHECUP, RILEY’S CHOICE, MAJESTIC BONNIE.

Libby’s Tail
Luz Mimi
Kirby’s Penny

LIBBY’S TAIL: Came off the bench running last time out, finishing a close-up second in her first start since January. She’s worked well since then, and further progression is logical second off the layoff; LUZ MIMI: Has found a new level in four starts for Jeremiah Englehart and was third behind my top pick last time out. She could benefit from a wet track, as she won on one two back at Belmont; KIRBY’S PENNY: Has won three of four career dirt starts, although two of those victories came over much weaker fields. Still, she figures to be the main early speed, and she could lead them a long way.

R10

Vertical Oak
Nonna Mela
Sister Kan

VERTICAL OAK: Gets some class relief after chasing American Gal in the Grade 1 Test last time out. Her races before that were sharp, and while she should be prominent early, it helps that she does not necessarily need the lead; NONNA MELA: Rolled home in her 2017 debut, improving to 2-for-2 over this surface. She also won the Grade 2 Adirondack here last year, and these connections merit respect; SISTER KAN: Takes a big step up in class but has crossed the wire in front on four straight occasions. In a race with lots of speed signed on, a closer could pick up some pieces late, and as such, I think this one could get a slice of it at a big price.

R11

Blue Atlas
Bilinski entry
Scoopsie Patato

BLUE ATLAS: Is strictly the one to beat if this race stays on the turf. She found two turns too far last time out and cuts back to her preferred route in the Sunday finale; BILINSKI ENTRY: This is mainly because STONEY BENNETT is the lone main-track-only runner in the field. He’s worked pretty well, and none of the others in here have anything resembling dirt form; SCOOPSIE PATATO: Debuts for a barn that has had plenty of success with first-time starters. Javier Castellano doesn’t ride for this outfit much, so it’s notable that he’s signed on here.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 9/2/17

Posted on September 1, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $878.35

Closing weekend is upon us at Saratoga, and as usual, there’s a lot going on. Saturday’s card boasts two Grade 1 races, one of which is headlined by the top handicap horse on the grounds. Meanwhile, the Labor Day program features the Grade 1 Hopeful, and that’s an intriguing race considering the relative lack of standouts in the 2-year-old male division to this point. This’ll be fun, and hopefully we’ll cash a few tickets along the way!

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: We had nothing behind New York’s Finest in the seventh, and Lem Me Dance was off the board despite an OK effort (missed the break and ran wide). We dropped $30.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to keep this simple with a pair of $25 plays. I’ll punch a $25 double using top Spinaway pick #1 SEPARATIONOFPOWERS with #2 GUN RUNNER in the Woodward, and I’ll play a cold $25 exacta using Gun Runner with #1 NEOLITHIC.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Gun Runner, Race 11
Longshot: Always a Suspect, Race 7

Driven by Thunder
Borsa Vento
Honor Thy Father

DRIVEN BY THUNDER: Drops way down in class for aggressive connections and has never run a bad race on a fast dirt course. This trainer/jockey tandem merits respect, and he seems like the one to beat; BORSA VENTO: Graduated last time out and was claimed out of that race by Steven Asmussen, who does strong work with new acquisitions. This is his first outing against winners, but his most recent effort was solid; HONOR THY FATHER: Drops down in class, and he made some noise as a 2-year-old when running in a few stakes races. It can be argued his best effort was in the Ellis Park Juvenile, which was run around one turn, and he comes back to that route here.

Maraud
Oroscopo
Say the Word

MARAUD: Is bred up and down to be a very good turf horse. He’s a half to graded stakes winner Arklow, his female family is very distinguished, and he’s got a few strong local works on the tap; OROSCOPO: Fetched $325k at auction earlier this year and has the pedigree to love turf. He’s by Orb, whose first offspring have taken to the lawn in a big, big way; SAY THE WORD: Is another bred for the grass, and he ships down for a Canadian owning and breeding institution. A trip through the pedigree leads to third dam Dance Smartly, one of the top Canadian thoroughbreds in history.

Bluegrass Jamboree
Frosty Gal
Palladian Bridge

BLUEGRASS JAMBOREE: Has yet to run a bad race in four career starts. She was second at this level despite a rough trip, and the rider switch to John Velazquez is notable; FROSTY GAL: Has run in three stakes races this season and should find this level more to her liking. Several local workouts are solid; PALLADIAN BRIDGE: Hasn’t won in a while, but comes back to her preferred surface after chasing a next-out stakes winner on turf last time out. She should be prominent early, and her best is good enough for a piece of it.

Slim Shadey
Docs Legacy
Indebted

SLIM SHADEY: Stood up last time out at this level and route, winning a swiftly-run race for the level. This veteran did get an ideal trip that day, but there’s plenty of speed signed on here and he could come running once again; DOCS LEGACY: Pulled off a 31-1 upset against similar foes earlier in the meet and cuts back in distance. He needs some luck to draw in, but must be respected if he does; INDEBTED: Ran second behind my second selection last time out and was claimed out of that race by a small barn that’s done tremendous work with new acquisitions. He’s another closer that needs a pace to run at, but he should get it.

Phi Beta Express (MTO)
J. S. Choice
Funtastic

J. S. CHOICE: Was a solid second last time out in a weirdly-run race. The winner got loose on an uncontested lead early on, and this one didn’t miss by much. There’s plenty of speed signed on here, which is a plus; FUNTASTIC: Graduated last time out in his turf debut, and this trainer/jockey combination has been tremendous all meet long. He could be good enough to beat winners in his first start at the level; LUNAIRE: Has run against much better horses for most of this season and was way too far back last time out at Delaware Park. He should appreciate the class relief he gets in this spot. DIRT SELECTIONS: PHI BETA EXPRESS, LENSTAR, SOUND OFF.

Lionite
Slot
Venezuela

LIONITE: Chased the possible Hopeful favorite last time out in his debut for a barn whose runners sometimes need a race to get going. He could take a big step forward today, and his pedigree suggests the added distance won’t be a problem; SLOT: Ran on well late to be third in his debut behind a few live runners, including one that runs in Monday’s Hopeful. This is another that should improve stretching out at second asking; VENEZUELA: Seems the most live of all of the first-time starters in here. He fetched $300k at auction last year, has worked well, and has a strong female pedigree (his dam, second dam, and third dam were all stakes-winners).

Always a Suspect
Gift Box
Servis entry

ALWAYS A SUSPECT: Came off a brief freshening last time out and ran well, finishing less than a length behind Woodward entrant Neolithic. There’s a lot of speed signed on here, so I’m inclined to pick a horse that doesn’t need to be on or near the lead to run well; GIFT BOX: Was a highly-regarded 3-year-old in 2016 and ran fourth behind Arrogate in the Travers. He hasn’t run since, and while his best race likely wins, he also probably wants to go much longer than this route; SERVIS ENTRY: I prefer STILL KRZ, who was third in the Decathlon behind two next-out winners. One of those horses was Vanderbilt winner El Deal, so there’s lots of back class here.

Thais
Create a Dream
Dubb entry

THAIS: Makes her North American debut after showing plenty of class in Europe. Her prior connections thought enough of her to try her against boys in last year’s Group 1 Grand Criterium, and she’s since hit the board in two Group 3 events; CREATE A DREAM: Makes her 2017 debut after a solid 2-year-old campaign saw her win a stakes race and run fourth in two graded events, including the Albany at Royal Ascot. Chad Brown could easily run 1-2 in this spot; DUBB ENTRY: TRUTH IN THE LIES steps up in class after an impressive win in her first start for these connections, while LITERATA won a stakes race here last time out and is the one to beat if this gets rained off the turf.

Bricks and Mortar
Yoshida
Voodoo Song

BRICKS AND MORTAR: Is 4-for-4 and looked great in winning a Grade 2 here earlier in the meet. He’s improved with every start, and is strictly the one to beat in here; YOSHIDA: Was beaten less than a length by my top pick last out and is another that seems to be improving with experience. He’s hinted at major talent in the past and can’t be ignored; VOODOO SONG: Has won three times at this meet and takes a step up in class in his search for a fourth local win in less than two months. I’m not sure he’s got the talent of my top two, but he figures to make the early lead, and at least you know he loves this turf course.

R10

Separationofpowers
Pure Silver
Lady Ivanka

SEPARATIONOFPOWERS: Was probably the most impressive maiden-breaker of the entire meet. She dominated an overmatched field earlier in the meet, and if she improves off of that performance, look out; PURE SILVER: Ran away with the Grade 2 Adirondack and will likely be favored. A repeat of that race would make her tough, but I’m just not sure what she beat that day; LADY IVANKA: Romped by eight in her unveiling last month. She looked great that day, but the runner-up threw in a clunker at next asking, and that’s a red flag.

R11

Gun Runner
Neolithic
Rally Cry

GUN RUNNER: Is arguably the best older horse in the country and romped at this route in the Grade 1 Whitney. He should sit another perfect trip, and his best race wins this handily; NEOLITHIC: Clearly needed the race last time out when all-out to top optional claimers going shorter than he probably wants to go. He was third behind Arrogate and Gun Runner in Dubai, and I think he’ll take a big step forward in his second start off the layoff; RALLY CRY: Was very sharp in winning the Alydar, and he’ll likely take most of the “wise guy” money from those looking to go against my top pick. However, that race was a considerable step forward, and he didn’t beat a lot there, so a bounce is very possible.

R12

Sarandia
War Flag
Estrechada

SARANDIA: Ran well in her North American debut when beaten less than three lengths in the Grade 1 Beverly D. by several top-notch runners. I’m taking the stance that that was a much tougher race than the ones others in here exit, and as such, she gets my top pick in a wide-open race; WAR FLAG: Was a close second in the Grade 3 Matchmaker, and among those she beat was Grade 1 winner Miss Temple City. She’s bred to go this route of ground, and note the presence of Jose Ortiz; ESTRECHADA: Beat many of these rivals in the Grade 3 Waya at a similar route. Javier Castellano rides back, and she merits respect.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 9/1/17

Posted on August 31, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $908.35

In my travels Wednesday night, I came across a thread in a popular horse racing group on Facebook. It discussed a young analyst making a claim about Arrogate’s historical standing, and someone who disagreed said something so ignorant that I had to respond in writing. 1,200 words later, the finished product is online at AndrewChampagne.com and all of my social media outlets.

If you’re of the mindset that the younger people in this game have opinions that can be easily discarded, I urge you to read it. If you’ve got a reaction to it, tweet me at @AndrewChampagne. This is something I’m extremely passionate about, and it may be one of the most important racing-related things I’ve ever written.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: If I could’ve updated my late Pick Four after scratches, I’d have thrown Ides of Arch into the first race following the defection of Grand Valour (and on a ticket I played in real-life, I did just that). However, in this section, that’s not possible, so the ticket I gave out fizzled right away. We dropped $18 after scratches destroyed the $37.50 ticket.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus my action on the seventh and ninth races. In the seventh, I’ll key horse-for-course #2 NEW YORK’S FINEST in $5 exactas above and below #8 WHATSTOTALKABOUT and #9 ANIMAL POSSE, and in the ninth, I’ll put $5 to win and place on longshot of the day #11 LEM ME DANCE.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Follow the Signs, Race 11
Longshot: Lem Me Dance, Race 9

Enduring Honor
Augie’s Coming
Heliodoro

ENDURING HONOR: Has run well in each of his last four starts, including a close-up second last time out. The winner that day just missed earlier this week; AUGIE’S COMING: Was third in that race and hasn’t missed the board since February of 2016. He figures to be prominent early, and this trainer/jockey combination merits respect; HELIODORO: Stretches back out to two turns, and the last time he raced at such a route, he won at a price. The connections are cold, but this one may be worth a look underneath.

Chipolina
Puttinyouonthenews
Radiant Beauty

CHIPOLINA: Had a series of very strong workouts at Keeneland earlier this summer for a barn that’s one of the best at winning with debuting runners. She’s bred up and down for turf, and she gets my nod in a very tough race; PUTTINYOUONTHENEWS: Comes back to the turf after running third in a race that was rained onto the main track earlier in the meet. Her debut on the grass was solid, and experience matters; RADIANT BEAUTY: Bounced in her second career start after a debut that was OK. She gets onto the turf, and given her pedigree (by Orb, out of a Mizzen Mast mare), that could be what she wants.

Valhalla
Italian Syndicate
High Five Cotton

VALHALLA: Has five top-two finishes in six completed races this season, including a win last time out at this level. The likely race shape should benefit this late-running closer, and this smaller barn has quietly had a solid meet; ITALIAN SYNDICATE: Is one of many in here that will likely go early. He was third against slightly better two back and returns to the dirt after a failed turf experiment; HIGH FIVE COTTON: Ships up from Penn National and gets leading rider Jose Ortiz. This jockey riding for a small barn could signal good intentions, and he has some races from earlier this summer at Monmouth that were not bad.

Draxhall Woods
All About Ashley
Imperio entry

DRAXHALL WOODS: Has been popular at the claim box, and for good reason. He was second at this level earlier in the meet, beat a better group two back, and gets a rider switch to Luis Saez; ALL ABOUT ASHLEY: Prevailed at this level and route last time out at a price and shouldn’t sneak up on anyone here. He did sit a great trip near a slow pace, but this barn has enjoyed a very strong meet; IMPERIO ENTRY: I prefer TUG OF WAR, who adds blinkers following a disappointing run last time out. He won at this distance two back, and a repeat of that effort puts him right there in a wide-open race.

Avast Matey
Divine Interventio
Scarf It Down

AVAST MATEY: Showed some zip in a fast race for this level last time out. That was his first effort in more than two months, so he may have needed the race, and he shouldn’t have to go that fast early on in this spot; DIVINE INTERVENTIO: Drops in off of a series of allowance races, and this seems like a much softer spot. He was well behind a very impressive winner here earlier in the meet, and he should appreciate the class relief; SCARF IT DOWN: Was second against a weaker group last time out and is aggressively jumped up in class by a new barn. That could signal confidence, and the recent workouts at Belmont Park look sharp.

Honor Way (MTO)
City Section
Madame Uno

CITY SECTION: Was a solid third at this level last time out when rating off of a very slow early pace. There’s a lot of early speed signed on, which means she should sit a great trip and have every chance to run them down late; MADAME UNO: Was second in the race my top pick exits, but was right on a very slow early pace and couldn’t finish the job. She could win, but I don’t usually like to pick horses on top following a perfect-trip loss; DYNAMIC WAR: Was well clear throughout in an easy score against maiden claimers. Judging by an OK second two back, she probably doesn’t need the lead to run well. DIRT SELECTIONS: HONOR WAY, QUESTEQ, JONQUIL.

Marriedtothemusic (MTO)
New York’s Finest
Whatstotalkabout

NEW YORK’S FINEST: Is 3-for-3 sprinting on turf at Saratoga, and two of those wins have come at this meet. This is probably a better field than what he’s been running against, but he figures to be the main speed, and he could be tough to run down; WHATSTOTALKABOUT: Cuts back after a third-place finish going seven furlongs at Belmont. The Servis/Ortiz combination has been lethal this summer, and his best race could certainly win this; ANIMAL POSSE: Prevailed at this route last time out. His record looks much better if you toss the seven-furlong race two back, and Javier Castellano jumps aboard. DIRT SELECTIONS: MARRIEDTOTHEMUSIC, D’FUNNYTHING, PROPER FREUD.

Zap Zap Zap
Tommy T
Pendleton

ZAP ZAP ZAP: Ran well in defeat last month, finishing second in a quick race for this level. This is a very difficult race, but a repeat of either of this one’s last two efforts would make him tough; TOMMY T: Was a good second in his debut for a barn whose horses sometimes need a race to get going. The winner came right back to win again, and the recent workouts here are very strong; PENDLETON: Fetched $600k at auction in 2015 and has worked well of late for powerhouse connections ahead of his debut. There are many first-time starters in here that could be runners, but I prefer this one the most of that group.

Lem Me Dance
Dubb entry
Amazing Anne

LEM ME DANCE: Has improved in every start to date and made a strong middle move in her first effort going a distance of ground. This barn has quietly enjoyed a strong meet, and given the big field, we may get a square price; DUBB ENTRY: FROSTY LADY has won two in a row since being claimed by Jason Servis, while COTTON CANDY CUTIE is strictly the one to beat if this race gets rained off the turf; AMAZING ANNE: Generally runs the same race every time out, and that effort is usually enough for a piece of it at this level. She doesn’t win much, but if you’re playing the exotics, she can’t be ignored. DIRT SELECTIONS: COTTON CANDY CUTIE, ABOUT THAT BASE, MADISON BLUES.

R10

Dowse’s Beach
Big Rock
Dream Mover

DOWSE’S BEACH: Ran a huge race in defeat last time out in a Grade 2 at Woodbine. He’s found another level since being claimed by Brad Cox, and he’s the one to beat if he fires his best shot; BIG ROCK: Is undefeated at this route and comes in off a win over a solid field. He could sit a great trip just off the pace; DREAM MOVER: Debuted with authority earlier in the meet, rallying powerfully against a weaker group at this route. The rail draw is a bit of a concern, but if he steps forward in his second start off a long layoff, he could be right there when it matters most.

R11

Follow the Signs
O Captainmycaptain
Bartleby

FOLLOW THE SIGNS: Takes a big drop in class off of a race earlier this meet that wasn’t bad. He was beaten less than two lengths despite hitting the gate, and his usual effort would make him extremely difficult to beat; O CAPTAINMYCAPTAIN: Found open company too tough last time out in his first start for trainer Rudy Rodriguez. This should be a better level for him, and note the addition of both blinkers and Irad Ortiz; BARTLEBY: Needs luck to draw in off the AE list, but could be worth using underneath if he does. This barn hasn’t had a great meet, but he ran OK at this level a few weeks ago.