INTERLUDE: Standing Up for the Younger Crowd

…we were SO close.

I’m a pretty easygoing guy. Maybe it’s my California residence, maybe it’s that I have what I consider to be a dream job, or maybe it’s the fact that I’ve had a darned good year at the betting windows, but it takes a lot to tick me off, and for the first 35 days of the racing meet at Saratoga, that didn’t happen.

That was before Wednesday night, though, when I saw a post in a popular Facebook group called “Thoroughbred Racing in New York” that sent me over the edge. Full disclosure: I like and/or respect most of the group’s 2,600-plus members. I’ve met many of them on multiple occasions in various settings, and I consider the group’s chief moderator, Ernie Munick, a great ambassador for the sport and an even better person.

Here’s the full story. NYRA analyst Anthony Stabile, who I don’t know and have never met, went on TV after Arrogate’s second-place finish in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar. He remarked that he was a member of the “younger generation,” and that not only did he consider Arrogate to be one of the best horses he’d ever seen, but that he also considered the big grey to be one of the best horses of all-time.

As comrade and Gulfstream Park track announcer Pete Aiello would say, “…and there we go with the antics.”

Outcry from some racing veterans against Stabile’s comments got pretty harsh. Before we go any further, here’s the crux of my column: I’m not here to argue for or against Stabile’s opinion. What I’m crusading against is the belief of some in the game that the opinions of those younger than them don’t carry weight, simply because of when the people carrying those views were born.

Nowhere was that more evident than in a comment I saw from a few days ago. The comment said, and I’m quoting here, “Stabile is just like so many younger fans who are blind to the past.”

I was fine before reading that. Every other comment, I could shrug off and move on from without a second thought. For some reason, that one hit me hard. It’s probably because I’m a nerd who has devoured most of the books on racing history that have been published in the last 20 years, but that comment reeked of such ignorance and snobbery that I could not possibly let it go unchecked.

I’ve always been a believer that most aspects of horse racing revolve around one central mission: Use what’s happened in the past to your advantage as you work forward. Gamblers do it every day reading the Daily Racing Form. Trainers do it in their barns when making split-second decisions on how to train their horses and where to run them. Owners and breeders analyze pedigrees and running lines on a constant basis when looking to breed or purchase horses. Marketing and business-types analyze handle numbers from every conceivable angle using data that would make your head spin (I worked for an ADW/television network for more than two years; trust me, I’d know). Heck, the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame, an organization for which I’m proud to cast an annual ballot, is BUILT on that very concept.

Put simply, any claims that younger people in the industry don’t know their history are wrong. If we didn’t know our history, we wouldn’t have lasted five minutes, let alone thrived. I’m 28 years old, and I have no memory of seeing any great horse before the days of Cigar. Does that make me any less fit to express my opinion? Of course not.

I’ve won awards for my work in the business. I work for the leading authority on horse racing news in this country, and my resume includes stops at both HRTV and TVG. I’ve also been fortunate enough to continue my work for The Saratogian as that paper’s main handicapper, and I’m simply stating a fact when I tell you that any credible list of top public handicappers at that track (based there or anywhere else) has me on it. That isn’t arrogance, or bluster, or ego, or a strong personality talking. That’s a conclusion grounded in statistics and facts from the past several years.

So yeah. Forgive me if I took those comments just a wee bit personally.

I’m not alone in having a certain amount of gravitas in this business at a young age. The aforementioned Pete Aiello isn’t even halfway to social security, and he’s emerged as one of the top race-callers in the business. Joe Nevills, Nicole Russo, Matt Bernier, and David Aragona are similar-aged colleagues at the Daily Racing Form and TimeformUS, and I’d put their skills in their respective lines of work up against those of anyone else in the business. They’re that good, and they’re going to BE that good for a long, long time.

I’ve worked with Gino Buccola, Caleb Keller, Joaquin Jaime, Tom Cassidy, and Britney Eurton at TVG, along with a large number of people behind the scenes whose names you don’t know but who the operation would not work without. HRTV was much the same way. Once again, please let me stress that this is not a matter of if I agreed with those people all of the time. The point I’m trying to make is different, and it’s simple: You don’t get to bash the source of those comments simply because that source is younger than you’d like him/her to be.

I’ve heard this stuff before, and I’m tired of it. I’ve gotten hate mail from a Kentucky Derby-winning owner. I’ve been told by people that I’m not good at what I do, and in fact, being told that there were certain things I wasn’t good enough to do sparked the very existence of this site. Those who know me well will tell you that the best way to motivate me is to tell me I can’t do something. That flips a switch, and my priority instantly becomes to prove people wrong. Dislike me as much as you want, and I probably won’t care. Disrespect me, or try to discredit me, and I’m going to pull out all the stops to prove you wrong.

If it seems like I’ve got a chip on my shoulder sometimes, that’s probably accurate. The stuff about ego and bluster, though, is a bit overblown, and if you think my personality is that strong, understand that you’re seeing my competitive nature and a freakish desire to be the best at what I do, all the time. I know that doesn’t sit well with some people, and I’ve paid for that (for stories on that topic, check back in 30 years when I write my memoirs to pay for Pick Four tickets). I’ve come to terms with being labeled as “the motor-mouthed kid that doesn’t shut up,” but what I refuse to tolerate is the notion that anyone under the age of 35 or so shouldn’t be taken seriously solely because we’re younger than most of our contemporaries.

What was said struck a chord with me in all the wrong ways. I won’t speak for some of the people that I’ve mentioned in this column, but I will say that I refuse to be disregarded simply because I’m younger than most of the people in my field. I’ve done too much and worked too hard to be treated that way, and I know I’m not alone in putting in the time and effort.

To those who come here and value my input and thoughts: Thank you. You’re a large part of the reason I write this stuff. If you’re one of the people who thinks those younger than you are somehow inferior simply because of their age, think again. I won’t accept it, and I’ll be happy to tell you, and show you, that you’re wrong.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/31/17

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $926.35

Seeing a field of five signed on for Saturday’s Woodward was disappointing, but not surprising. Gun Runner is arguably the top older horse in training, and the defections of Grade 1 winners Shaman Ghost and Cupid weren’t small ones. However, the Grade 1 Spinaway only getting a field of five is insulting to that race’s history, as well as the history of the track it’s run at.

Saratoga has the reputation of a track where 2-year-old prospects burst onto the scene. To be fair, the field does include runaway Adirondack winner Pure Silver and flashy first-out graduates Separationofpowers and Lady Ivanka. However, with 2-year-old races run every single day this meet, a field double the size of what will line up Saturday wouldn’t have been shocking. Long story short: This race deserves better.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: I was right in my theory that the late Pick Four would pay well. Unfortunately, I couldn’t come up with With Anticipation winner Catholic Boy despite having half the field on my ticket. As a result, we dropped $30.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll take another swing at the late Pick Four, and my ticket is built around #3 ORBOLUTION in the P.G. Johnson. My 50-cent ticket: 5,6,8,10,12 with 2,6,8 with 3 with 1,4,6,9,11.

TOTAL WAGERED: $37.50

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Ultimateenticement, Race 5
Longshot: Saratoga Charlie, Race 10

R1

No Wunder
Giza
Balance the Budget

NO WUNDER: Was second at this level earlier in the meet and seems logical here. He found stakes company too tough two back, but he’s fit right in here before; GIZA: Was in good form before his last start, which saw him leave the course early. He should be prominent early for powerful connections; BALANCE THE BUDGET: Was fifth in the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick last time out and gets significant class relief here. He led midway through that race and could make the lead in this spot at a bit of a price.

R2

Forge
Irst
One More Round

FORGE: Takes an aggressive drop in class after three starts against straight maidens, none of which were bad. The early pace last time out was probably too fast, and he should have an easier go of it here; IRST: Was a close second in his first start at this level a few weeks ago. Few are better with new acquisitions than Linda Rice, who claimed him out of that race; ONE MORE ROUND: Had a strange trip last time out in his first start off a long layoff. He’d traditionally been a speed horse, but was well off the pace in the slop. He fits with a more conventional go of it here.

R3

Control Group
Minsky Moment
Born for a Storm

CONTROL GROUP: Has won two in a row, including a wire-to-wire score against claiming company at this route earlier in the meet. This is a tougher spot, but he should make the lead from his inside post; MINSKY MOMENT: Has done very little wrong in four starts and has never finished outside the top two. He was a close second behind a winner who sat a perfect trip last time out, and these connections merit respect; BORN FOR A STORM: Tries two turns for the first time and has the running style to embrace such a route. He’s been a bit one-paced in two starts this meet, and he did run an OK second at a mile last year.

R4

Cozzy Spring
Shimmering Moon
Jules N Rome

COZZY SPRING: Won two in a row before a failed turf experiment last time out. There’s some speed signed on here, but she seems quickest of these out of the gate and is a real threat to go wire-to-wire; SHIMMERING MOON: Cruised home in her first start for Michelle Nevin earlier this meet. This may be a tougher group, but she has the potential to sit a perfect trip just off the speed; JULES N ROME: Comes back to state-bred competition after a third-place finish against open company. She loves this track, and while she may be a bit off her best form, she could easily get a piece of this.

R5

Ultimateenticement
Candy Zip
Five Star Bunt

ULTIMATEENTICEMENT: Was a strong second in his local debut to a well-meant Chad Brown trainee. He was four lengths clear of the rest of the field that day, and his experience is a big plus against this largely-inexperienced field; CANDY ZIP: Has worked well of late here for a trainer that can have debuting runners ready to roll. The August 3rd bullet jumps off the page, and he’s clearly one to consider; FIVE STAR BUNT: Was fourth behind two next-out winners last month (including a stakes winner). He’s had issues at the gate in each of his two outings, but Javier Castellano signing on could signal this barn’s intent.

R6

Hard Scramble (MTO)
Grand Sky
Rate for Me

GRAND SKY: Took a step forward first off the claim earlier this month, rolling home for powerful connections. He’s got two wins and a second at this route, and he should be rolling late; RATE FOR ME: Has won two in a row and seems to be figuring things out. He may not have beaten a tough field last time out, but this barn has had a strong meet, and further improvement would make him dangerous; HOLD ME BLACK: Was run down late in his local debut and had to settle for second despite a big effort. He nearly overcame a far-outside post, and today’s assignment is a bit more forgiving in that regard. DIRT SELECTIONS: HARD SCRAMBLE, PORTANDO, HOLD ME BLACK.

R7

Zonic (MTO)
Summer Mischief
Appealing Briefs

SUMMER MISCHIEF: Showed improved early speed last time out, pressing a decent pace and hanging on for third. This race doesn’t appear to have a lot of speed signed on, and he could clear most of these going into the first turn; APPEALING BRIEFS: Was second in that same race, but sat a much better trip rating well off the pace. He seems to have a habit of running second, and it wouldn’t be too shocking if he breaks through; GRAND VALOUR: Was distanced early in his debut but somehow rallied to salvage fourth, making up nearly 14 lengths in 5 1/2 furlongs. This is a tougher group, and Castellano taking off isn’t encouraging, but I need to throw him in. DIRT SELECTIONS: ZONIC, GRAND VALOUR, CATCH A CAB.

R8

Jupiter Rising
Storm Prophet
Manifest Destiny

JUPITER RISING: Was probably left with too much to do last time out in his first try against winners. He’s since been transferred to the Todd Pletcher barn, and two turns shouldn’t be a problem; STORM PROPHET: Is extremely consistent, but has not won since October of 2015. His usual effort almost certainly gets him a piece of it, but I have a tough time endorsing horses like this on top; MANIFEST DESTINY: Hasn’t won since his debut, but he’s woken up a bit going long on turf. He figures to be prominent early, and note that he beat this race’s likely favorite home last time out.

R9

Orbolution
Mentality
Life Time Citizen

ORBOLUTION: Woke up last time out in her turf debut, rolling home against overmatched maidens. She’s one of just two in here with two-turn experience, and continued development would make her tough to beat; MENTALITY: Went wire-to-wire in her debut downstate back in June and stretches out here. The pedigree suggests she should handle the added distance, and she’ll likely make the lead early on; LIFE TIME CITIZEN: Has a running style that indicates she’ll love two turns. She was one-paced in a similar-level race going shorter a few weeks ago, so this trip could suit her.

R10

Bunyaan
Hy Brasil
Saratoga Charlie

BUNYAAN: Was an OK second going two turns last month and makes his first start for new trainer Linda Rice. She’s in the midst of a stellar meet, and this one gets the nod in a wide-open finale; HY BRASIL: Took advantage of the class drop last time out with a win in his first start for a tag. His race three back at this distance wasn’t horrible, and this barn merits respect; SARATOGA CHARLIE: Figures to be a big price off of two clunkers, but those races came against much better horses. Additionally, he’s done some of his best work at this distance, with a win and a second in two starts at seven furlongs.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/30/17

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $956.35

It was great to be back east for a week. I saw my family, I picked some winners, and I ate good pizza, which, as any of you who have spent time on the west coast know, is very rare out there. However, there’s a concerning epidemic that I need to address, and unfortunately, I must be firm.

If you are a male heading to the track, and you feel the urge to wear pants or shorts that would qualify as “salmon?” Don’t. Just don’t. They look ridiculous, and you will be laughed at behind your back. I’m considering channeling Moe Drabowsky (a baseball player perhaps best-recalled for the prank known as “the hot foot”) and setting said pants on fire while people are wearing them. Consider yourselves warned ahead of my next trip east, whenever that may be.

MONDAY’S RESULTS: My early doubles went up in smoke when Discretionary Marq ran second in the opener, but we did cash a ticket later on in the card. Unfortunately, English Soul was bet down to 5/2 off a 15-1 morning line, so when she ran second, our $3 win-place-show stab only returned $11.85. In total, we dropped $17.15.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I think the late Pick Four has the potential to pay well, so I’ll focus my energy there. My 50-cent ticket reads thusly (numbers, not names, so as to save space): 1,2,3,6,11 with 6 with 4,7,8,9,10,11 with 6,9.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Mr. Crow, Race 8
Longshot: Barrel of Dreams, Race 7

R1

Special Risk
Renewal
Communion Money

SPECIAL RISK: Is 0-for-12, and that’s usually too many chances for my taste, but she takes a considerable drop in class to the lowest level she’s ever run at. These connections are aggressive, and her best race likely wins this; RENEWAL: Is a regally-bred 3-year-old filly, so it’s very strange to see her debut for a $20k tag. She’s by Speightstown, and out of a Malibu Moon mare, and while the connections merit respect, her being offered up for a fifth of her purchase price is a red flag; COMMUNION MONEY: Didn’t take to the turf last time out and returns to her preferred surface. She figures to be prominent early.

R2

Call Provision
Tasit
Three Diamonds entry

CALL PROVISION: Was a good second earlier in the meet at this level and route. There appears to be some pace signed on here, which would benefit this one given his late-running style; TASIT: Was beaten less than two lengths by my top pick last time out. He’s been gelded since that effort, and that could make a significant difference; THREE DIAMONDS ENTRY: ALTAR BOY was a good second in his last turf marathon effort, while BONUS POINTS looms large if this race is rained off the turf and onto the main track. DIRT SELECTIONS: BONUS POINTS, ROYAL POSSE, TASIT.

R3

Core Portfolio
Dunk a Din
Erik the Red

CORE PORTFOLIO: Gets my reluctant top pick in a race that can be described as a pari-mutuel mess. Many of these come out of races from earlier in the meet that are less than inspiring, and this one figures to get an easy early lead while dropping significantly in class; DUNK A DIN: Outlasted similar foes earlier in the meet and was claimed out of that race by Danny Gargan, who does strong work with new acquisitions; ERIK THE RED: Gets a two-turn route of ground, and he ran some solid races at similar routes this past winter at Aqueduct. Maybe he preferred the inner as opposed to two turns, but at his likely price, I’m inclined to use him in exotics.

R4

Subic Bay
More Than a Legend
Schwartz entry

SUBIC BAY: Showed some early zip in a turf marathon last month and cuts back to the route she probably wants. This spot also represents a slight class drop, which should help; MORE THAN A LEGEND: Was an OK third at this route earlier in the meet and adds blinkers here. The rider switch to Luis Saez is notable, as is her close second at this level last summer; SCHWARTZ ENTRY: I prefer ETERNAL VOW, who has a race under her belt and goes to the Todd Pletcher barn. DIRT SELECTIONS: TRANSACTION TAX, SCHWARTZ ENTRY, FOREIGN AFFAIR.

R5

Avery Maeve
Hannah’s Smile
Misty On Pointe

AVERY MAEVE: Did everything but win last time out at this level and route. She missed by just a head to an OK turf sprinter despite being herded turning for home, and she beat a number of today’s rivals in that spot; HANNAH’S SMILE: Also exits that race, and is another that had an adventurous trip that day. The outside post is a bit of a concern, but note that she almost overcame this post last time out; MISTY ON POINTE: Ships up from Laurel Park for connections that have done well here this summer. That turf course has its quirks, but she’s 2-for-2 at this distance and should be running well late. DIRT SELECTIONS: R LUCKY CHARM, TARQUINIA, MARNESIA BIG GIRL.

R6

Seam
Presumptuous
Wise Strike

SEAM: Ran well in her debut when closing to be second in the slop at Gulfstream. She hasn’t been seen since, but she sports a recent bullet drill and there should be some pace for her to run at; PRESUMPTUOUS: Is 0-for-13 lifetime, but has run well twice at this meet. Luis Saez gets on, and this barn has quietly had a very solid meet to this point; WISE STRIKE: Missed by a neck going longer at Monmouth and cuts back for formidable connections. She’s shown zip in several recent workouts and figures to be prominent early.

R7

Stay Fond (MTO)
Barrel of Dreams
Durable Goods

BARREL OF DREAMS: Loves Saratoga and should sit a perfect trip in this spot. She’s 3-for-4 over this turf course, including a win earlier this month, and there isn’t much other quality speed signed on; DURABLE GOODS: Faces winners for the first time after graduating last month. The pedigree says today’s added distance won’t be a problem, and this trainer/jockey tandem has been on fire this meet; PALINODIE: Hasn’t been seen since November, when she was beaten less than two lengths in a Grade 3 at Aqueduct. She’s shown talent, and while she may need this race, anything close to her best would put her right there. DIRT SELECTIONS: STAY FOND, JUST GOT OUT, BARREL OF DREAMS.

R8

Mr. Crow
Patternrecognition
Cavil

MR. CROW: Earned a freaky 109 Beyer Speed Figure when demolishing maidens early in the meet. This is a pretty tough race for this level, but this colt is strictly the one to beat; PATTERNRECOGNITION: Has hooked stakes-quality opposition in both prior starts at this level. There’s no shame in running second to Takaful and Coal Front, and he merits respect; CAVIL: Could be worth a look underneath. He likely needed his last race, and he had a horrible trip that day when chasing a good-looking winner. Improvement off that effort is logical, and he may be a square price.

R9

Evaluator
Trumpi
Earth

EVALUATOR: Circled the field in his debut and won going away. Yes, he did that against state-breds, but the third-place finisher has since come back to win, and if he gets any pace to run at, he figures to be rolling late; TRUMPI: Wired the field at big odds in his debut, and he won’t be sneaking up on anyone here. The post position is not ideal, but he could be quick enough to clear most of the field early; EARTH: Was beaten at 3/5 in a stakes race at Monmouth last time out. His pedigree suggests he’ll love this distance, but the last-out clunker is a bit of a concern.

R10

Under Suspicion
Salty Smile
Climb the Ladder

UNDER SUSPICION: Was bet in her debut and ran well in defeat. She dueled early through a fast pace in the mud before finishing third, all for a barn whose first-time starters usually need the race. She should improve here; SALTY SMILE: Has worked very well ahead of her debut for trainer Rudy Rodriguez. It’s tough to go seven furlongs at first asking, but she could be ready to run right away; CLIMB THE LADDER: Was a distant second behind a runaway winner here last month, but she beat the rest of the field by six lengths. There are no such monsters here, so she could take another step forward.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/28/17

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $973.50

I had such a great time coming to the track on Friday that I’m making a return trip Monday. It’s my last full day in New York before heading back to California, and once again, it promises to be a fun time. The Monday card is pretty tough from start to finish, and that includes the Better Talk Now, which includes several promising 3-year-olds going two turns on the turf. I’m hoping I can head back to the west coast with some money in my pocket!

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: For the fifth straight day, we cashed a ticket, but for the first time in almost a week, we lost money. One of our $10 doubles hit, but it was the one that returned a paltry $2.05 for every dollar bet. As such, we dropped $19.50.

MONDAY’S PLAY: Once again, I thought this was a very tough card, with very few standouts and, thusly, very few spots to take a stand with a single. I’ll key my best bet in the opener, singling #5 DISCRETIONARY MARQ in $10 doubles with #2 ISOTOPE and #8 NORTH EIGHT STREET. Additionally, I’ll put $3 across the board on my longshot of the day, #5 ENGLISH SOUL in the ninth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $29

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Discretionary Marq, Race 1
Longshot: English Soul, Race 9

R1

Discretionary Marq
Heart in Hand
Speightful Kitten

DISCRETIONARY MARQ: Was extremely impressive in defeat in his debut, when he rallied from 10 lengths back to miss by just a neck. That sort of trip is uncommon for debuting runners, and any improvement off of that performance would make him very tough to beat; HEART IN HAND: Is well-bred and boasts some strong workouts ahead of his debut, including a turf bullet last month on the training track. Linda Rice’s barn is firing on all cylinders here; SPEIGHTFUL KITTEN: Showed speed in his first start off a long layoff, when he faded to fifth behind eventual stakes winner Crawdaddy. He was third at this route last summer and figures to be prominent early.

R2

Isotope
North Eight Street
Easy Way Out

ISOTOPE: Takes a small class drop second off a brief freshening for a barn that’s due to get going. Her win two back was very impressive, and she could sit a dream trip rating just off the pace; NORTH EIGHT STREET: Ran an improved race when dropping to this level last time out. She was second after setting the early pace, and while she hasn’t won in a while, a repeat of that effort would make her competitive here; EASY WAY OUT: Merits respect if you can find a reason to toss the last-out effort. She takes a big drop, and while a return to form would make her tough, that clunker in her lone local start leads me to go elsewhere on top.

R3

A Fleet Attitude
Rodriguez entry
Cautious Giant

A FLEET ATTITUDE: Ran into two stakes-quality horses last time out at Parx. That form sometimes has issues traveling north, but note that he won two back at Belmont off a long layoff against similar-quality foes to what he’ll face here; RODRIGUEZ ENTRY: I prefer MARRIEDTOTHEMUSIC, who loves Saratoga and has spent most of his career running against better horses. He may not be quite the horse he was in 2014 or 2015, but he should be prominent early; CAUTIOUS GIANT: Became the answer to a great trivia question when his shoe got caught in Gun Runner’s tail during the Whitney. He cuts back to his preferred distance, and it’s worth noting that he’s knocked heads with some top sprinters during his career.

R4

Cleo
Bixby Lou
Aife

CLEO: Drops down in class off of a race that was rained off the turf. That’s a throw-out, and I think you can toss the race two back as well, since it came off a 10-month layoff. She chased eventual Grade 1 winner Dream Dancing here last summer, and I think she wakes up today; BIXBY LOU: Was claimed by Linda Rice last time out and tries the turf for the first time. I love when trainers reach in with a plan in mind, and she may wind up on the lead in this spot; AIFE: Has run two OK races against straight maidens at Monmouth. She could sit a nice trip just off the pace beneath one of the top riders on the circuit.

R5

Honor Up
Big Gemmy
Mango M

HONOR UP: Didn’t run terribly in his debut, when he was fourth behind a well-meant Chad Brown trainee. He should like the added distance here, and this barn’s runners tend to improve with experience; BIG GEMMY: Was bet in his debut last month, but got off to a horrible start. He did salvage fifth that day, and the winner came back to win a state-bred stakes race Friday; MANGO M: Was a $250k auction purchase and has been working very well lately ahead of his debut. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because Shug McGaughey’s horses usually need a race or two to get going.

R6

Hot and Heavy
Thirsty Actor
Candy Asset

HOT AND HEAVY: Seems to be the only true speed horse in this field, and this kind of horse is very dangerous on the inner turf. He exits a stakes race at Monmouth and should appreciate the class drop; THIRSTY ACTOR: Is 2-for-2 since switching to the lawn, with both wins coming at Monmouth. This is a class test for him, but he’s done nothing wrong on this surface to date; CANDY ASSET: Won on debut for Todd Pletcher in April at Gulfstream. This is a very different kind of turf course, but this barn can never be ignored.

R7

Fire Key
Quality Time
Orecchiette

FIRE KEY: Thumped state-bred company earlier this month at this route, and in fact hasn’t run a bad race sprinting on turf. There’s some speed signed on, and this filly should sit a perfect stalking trip; QUALITY TIME: Makes her U.S. debut and gets Lasix for the first time. She hasn’t run in more than a year, but she was fourth in a Group 3 overseas last spring, so talent is certainly present; ORECCHIETTE: Set a fast early pace at this route two weeks ago and hung on for third money. She won’t be alone on the front end, but of the likely frontrunners in here, I prefer her the most.

R8

Snap Decision
Holiday Stone
Blind Ambition

SNAP DECISION: Has not run a bad race this year and comes in off a fourth-place finish in a Grade 2. That race featured some of the best 3-year-old turf horses on the east coast, and this is certainly a softer spot for a horse that’s got plenty of talent; HOLIDAY STONE: Was beaten just a length last time out in a similar stakes race at Belmont. He’s another that’s knocked heads with some tough runners, and he was beaten just a half-length in the Grade 3 Transylvania this past spring at Keeneland; BLIND AMBITION: Won a stakes race going shorter earlier this met. He did win going two turns on grass three back, but it’s worth noting he had a dream trip that day, one he likely won’t get in this spot.

R9

Blue Atlas
Lady of Miracles
English Soul

BLUE ATLAS: Needs luck to draw in, but will be tough to beat if he does. He found two turns to be too far last time out, and the horse that ran second there came back to graduate on Friday; LADY OF MIRACLES: Was a good second at this route in her debut behind a stakes-placed runner. There may not have been much else in that field, but improvement is logical at second asking despite the challenging post; ENGLISH SOUL: Is bred up and down for turf and has worked well here for a smaller barn that’s tasted some success this summer. She may want even longer, but anywhere close to her 15-1 morning line odds could be a considerable overlay.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/27/17

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $992

Hey, Eclipse Award voters? Good freaking luck.

That was the message delivered in the Travers, when West Coast became racing’s newest Grade 1 winner and gave the Mike Smith/Bob Baffert duo a second straight win in the Midsummer Derby. Always Dreaming faded, Cloud Computing never fired, and Tapwrit was one-paced while finishing fourth.

Who’s your Champion 3-Year-Old Male? Your guess is as good as mine. The door is wide-open for an unconventional winner, like turf specialist Oscar Performance or Allen Jerkens winner Practical Joke. Here’s the bigger, obviously-sarcastic question: If no deserving winner emerges, can voters decide to just not give out the award for a year?

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: We made it four winning days in a row with our win-place strategy. Of the four horses we gave out, three won, all at 6-1 odds or higher. Ultimately, our $40 investment returned $180.50.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the early part of the card and play doubles starting and ending with #5 PORTFOLIO MANAGER in the third. My $10 bets use the Chad Brown and Mike Maker-trained entries in the second and #3 TRUTH IN THE LIES and #6 CINDER in the fourth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Portfolio Manager, Race 3
Longshot: Amity, Race 10

R1

Thirst for Victory
Notorious
Caniform

THIRST FOR VICTORY: Drops way down in class for aggressive connections that have won lots of races with this move in the past. He broke his maiden sprinting here last year, and he’s been running against much better horses; NOTORIOUS: Returns from a long layoff for a new barn and drops to the lowest level he’s ever run at. The workout pattern here is steady, and his best race makes him a player; CANIFORM: Won here last week in his first start for Steve Asmussen. That race came against a weaker group, but he’s a consistent sort that merits a look.

R2

Brown entry
Maker entry
Spring On Curlin

BROWN ENTRY: I prefer DATA ROOM, who stretches back out to two turns and should embrace such a switch. His two duds both came at Belmont in one-turn races, and he hooked some tough competition in some of his prior efforts; MAKER ENTRY: I most fancy MARKITOFF, who was second at this level earlier in the meet behind a runaway winner. His races at this level have been fine, and note the rider switch to Luis Saez; SPRING ON CURLIN: Hasn’t won in a while, but drops in for a tag for the first time and exits a swiftly-run race at Belmont. This barn has quietly had an excellent meet.

R3

Portfolio Manager
Harlan Punch
Karma Delight

PORTFOLIO MANAGER: Was fourth in a classy allowance race won by a good 3-year-old named Petrov earlier in the meet. He drops in for a tag for the first time and is met by a less-than-imposing group; HARLAN PUNCH: Hasn’t won since 2015 and ships in for a high-percentage barn that’s been unusually cold this meet. He’s been second against similar in each of his last two starts at Churchill; KARMA DELIGHT: Cruised against maiden claimers last time out and faces winners for the first time in his first start for Steve Asmussen. I’m not sure what he beat that day, but a repeat effort probably gets him a piece of this.

R4

Just Got Out (MTO)
Truth in the Lies
Cinder

TRUTH IN THE LIES: Was a close-up fourth behind a next-out winner at this level last time, and was claimed out of that race by Jason Servis. He and Irad Ortiz have done spectacular work together this meet, and they team up on this one; CINDER: Gets a huge rider switch to Javier Castellano after a strange trip last time out. She probably needs a pace to run at, but she should be going well late; HOLD ME DOWN: Has hit the board in five of six starts this season and merits a look shipping in from Parx. Having said that, she’s 0-for-12 on turf, so if the morning line holds up, I’ll look elsewhere for value. DIRT SELECTIONS: JUST GOT OUT, HOLD ME DOWN, RANGER LADY.

R5

Everybody Loves Me
Quick Quick Quick
Twofer

EVERYBODY LOVES ME: Was second behind a runaway winner last time out in her debut, and that came for a barn whose horses often need a race or two to get going. Improvement is logical at second asking, and the blinkers come off this speedy horse, which is usually a plus; QUICK QUICK QUICK: Was also second in her debut, and she did so while rallying from off the pace, which is uncommon for first-time starters to successfully do. This is another barn whose horses often improve with experience; TWOFER: Fetched $290k at auction earlier this year and has worked well of late ahead of her unveiling. This is an outfit that has stellar numbers with debuting runners.

R6

Impazible Creek
Frost Wise
She’sakittykat

IMPAZIBLE CREEK: Boasts an improving work pattern ahead of her debut and has attracted Javier Castellano to ride for a fairly small barn, which is intriguing. The rail draw isn’t ideal, but it’s not like she’s lining up against any monsters in this spot; FROST WISE: Figures to be prominent early in a race that otherwise seems devoid of early speed. She’s had issues holding on to early leads of late, but she’ll likely have a very easy trip here; SHE’SAKITTYKAT: Was forced to rate behind a slow pace last time out, but rallied for third. However, she’ll likely face a similar situation today, albeit for powerful connections.

R7

First Appeal
Treatherlikestar
Swayed

FIRST APPEAL: Has run well here twice this summer, with a win and a solid third-place finish. She’s won three of four since going to trainer Linda Rice, and first-call rider Jose Ortiz will be aboard; TREATHERLIKESTAR: Broke through for her first win in a while last time out in her local debut. That was against a weaker field, but horses that like this route of ground can’t be thrown out; SWAYED: Threw in a clunker in a race rained off the turf last time out, but was a close-up third two back at this level and route. The rail draw is a concern, but we may get a bit of a price on a horse that’s run well at these conditions before.

R8

Astounding
Jupiter Rising
Any Questions

ASTOUNDING: Hasn’t run a bad race on the lawn in four such starts and was second at this level earlier this month. This is another Servis/Ortiz collaboration, and his usual race would make him the one to beat; JUPITER RISING: Won two back against maiden claimers and was probably left with too much to do late last time out against winners. Todd Pletcher takes over the training duties, and it’s not often we get this sort of a price on a horse from that barn; ANY QUESTIONS: Has won two of his last three, including a win against weaker company here earlier in the meet. David Jacobson does strong work with new acquisitions, and Runhappy’s little brother could improve in his first start for that outfit.

R9

Miss Ella
Fair Point
Ava’s Kitten

MISS ELLA: Has not finished worse than second in three starts at Saratoga, and that record includes a win in last month’s Caress Stakes. There’s plenty of pace in this race, and she could come running late in a race that came up very tough for this level; FAIR POINT: Meets my top selection once again after running second to her in the Caress. Both horses ran well that day, and it wouldn’t be too surprising if this one turns the tables; AVA’S KITTEN: Is another that likes Saratoga, having won two of four local starts. That includes a win in an optional claimer at this route, and this distance seems to suit her.

R10

Data Dependent
Amity
Reality Queen

DATA DEPENDENT: Is bred up and down for turf. She’s by More Than Ready and out of a Street Cry mare, and she’s worked very well for Chad Brown ahead of her debut; AMITY: Is listed at 20-1, and anywhere close to that price is an overlay. Her dam is a half to Forever Together, who won an Eclipse Award as the Champion Female Turf Horse of 2008, and this one has worked pretty well for a top-notch barn ahead of her unveiling; REALITY QUEEN: Showed some early zip in her turf debut last time out, and she’s the only proven early speed in this field. The rider switch to Luis Saez is notable, and she figures to be prominent early on.