The Saratogian

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/20/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $751.25

For those who don’t know, I live in California, and to make life easier on the fine folks at The Saratogian, I try to work as far in advance as possible. Unfortunately, one can get burned doing that, as I did when news came out that Going for Broke, who would have been my best bet of the day, would scratch from the Summer Colony to await the Personal Ensign.

I can’t reflect that in the picks I already sent in, but I can address it here. That is convenient for me, because that huge departure from the feature makes the late Pick Four very, very interesting.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: We had nothing around her in exactas or the late double, but Elate winning the Alabama at least meant a profit for the day (even if it was a marginal one). In total, our $40 investment returned $41.50.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: As I hinted, I’ll play the 50-cent late Pick Four (which begins in the seventh race), and my ticket does not include a single…well, single. To save space, I’ll only list numbers, not names: 1,10 with 8,9 with ALL with 4,6,7,14. Note that I’m not expecting #14 CONSUMERCONFIDENCE to run in the last given that he’s fourth on the AE list, but if he somehow draws in, I have to use him.

TOTAL WAGERED: $48

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Going for Broke, Race 9
Longshot: Closing Statement, Race 6

R1

Lightning Buzz
Caniform
Silver Assault

LIGHTNING BUZZ: Has run second in back-to-back tries at this level, including one such effort earlier this meet. He took a step forward that day and would be tough to beat with continued progression; CANIFORM: Hasn’t run a bad race on dirt and makes his first start for Steve Asmussen, who’s strong with new acquisitions. There appears to be plenty of early speed signed on, which should help his late kick; SILVER ASSAULT: Drops way down the class ladder, which is a shock given his 2-year-old campaign. A return to that form would make him an easy winner, but this drop by a very patient trainer is a big red flag.

R2

Kranji (MTO)
Air Vice Marshal
Kantune

AIR VICE MARSHAL: Gets two turns for the first time in his North American career and may want such a route. He was a solid second last time out at Belmont and should be flying late; KANTUNE: Was taken out of his element earlier this meet and should be much closer to the pace today. Joel Rosario rode this one to a win two back, and he returns in this spot; MAMBO AT THE GYM: Was never involved last time out, but that was a bizarre race with a runaway early leader. His effort two back at Belmont was solid. DIRT SELECTIONS: KRANJI, BATTLE MIDWAY, HOLLOW POINT.

R3

Tapella (MTO)
Complicit
Magical Sky

COMPLICIT: Stepped up to run a good second last time out in a race she may have needed. Of the few races a number of these come out of, that one seems to be the most impressive; MAGICAL SKY: Hasn’t done much wrong in two starts and ran well late to finish third earlier in the meet. The faster they go early on, the better this one will likely finish; SILVER SHAKER: Ran third in the race my top pick exits and stepped forward off a disappointing debut in the process. Javier Castellano signs on in this spot. DIRT SELECTIONS: TAPELLA, TIZ SUPER, BOGULATOR.

R4

Fortuitous Path
Noneedtoflatterme
Pirellone

FORTUITOUS PATH: Has spent most of his career running against substantially better horses and drops way down the class ladder for aggressive connections. This doesn’t appear to be a very imposing spot for the level, and I think he wakes up; NONEEDTOFLATTERME: Is 2-for-2 going short on dirt, albeit against weaker foes. He ran a nice race here earlier in the meet, and if that day’s runner-up runs well in today’s opener, it bodes well; PIRELLONE: Is wheeled back pretty quickly after a third-place finish at this level. He hasn’t won in a while, but he’s already run well twice at this meet.

R5

Indy Union (MTO)
Fools Gold
Wealth Effect

FOOLS GOLD: Fetched $425k at auction earlier this year and is bred to go long. None of the ones that have run before impress me much, so I’ll focus on first-time starters; WEALTH EFFECT: Hails from the same barn as my top pick and is also well-bred. The far outside post isn’t ideal, but these connections can never be ignored with a blue-blooded, first-time starter; PASS IT ON: Has worked pretty well of late here and is another bred to do her best running on the lawn. This barn’s horses sometimes need a race, but she can’t be ignored in the exotics. DIRT SELECTIONS: INDY UNION, WEALTH EFFECT, MAD DOG MATTERS.

R6

Purrfect Miss
Closing Statement
Coach Rocks

PURRFECT MISS: Was a close second at big odds in her debut, and that race seems far superior to anything any of the other ones with experience in here have run. Improvement is logical at second asking, and she’s worked well since her unveiling; CLOSING STATEMENT: Is bred to be a real runner. Her dam was a multiple Grade 1 winner, and this one’s work tab is consistent; COACH ROCKS: Fetched $95k at auction earlier this year and has worked pretty well since shipping here last month. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because she may want to go much longer.

R7

Heavy Meddle (MTO)
New York’s Finest
Wicked Macho

NEW YORK’S FINEST: Is 2-for-2 at this route, and both wins came by daylight. He does step up in class here, but he’s done nothing wrong going short at the Spa and could be good enough to beat these; WICKED MACHO: Did everything but win in his turf debut last time out. He showed a new dimension that day, and he’ll be a formidable foe; GEHRIG: Has not won since late-2015, but his last two races were pretty sharp. I hesitate to back horses like this on top, but he can’t be ignored if you’re playing vertical exotics. DIRT SELECTIONS: HEAVY MEDDLE, JEWEL CAN DISCO, MACHO MIAH.

R8

Lillie’s Answer
Magician’s Vanity
Cinder

LILLIE’S ANSWER: Drops down in class and has yet to run a bad race since being claimed by Mike Maker late last year. She beat similar company earlier this year at Gulfstream, and her usual race would make her tough; MAGICIAN’S VANITY: Was a good second at this level earlier in the meet behind a horse that got loose on the lead. She beat the rest of that field by daylight and could find this to be a softer spot; CINDER: Merits a look at a price if she draws in off the AE list. She had a lousy trip last time out, and she has prior races that show she can contend with this group. DIRT SELECTIONS: ROMANTIC MUSIC, BLUEGRASS HIP HOP, CINCY BELLE.

R9

Going for Broke
Verve’s Tale
Blue Prize

GOING FOR BROKE: Ran a huge race in her seasonal debut, which came going shorter than she wants to run. She was beaten just a neck by the ultra-classy Carina Mia that day, and she should step forward second off the bench and going her preferred distance; VERVE’S TALE: Doesn’t win much, but has been running against top-class competition this year. She could appreciate the shallower waters, although this is far from an easy spot; BLUE PRIZE: Adds blinkers following a pair of strange trips in both North American starts to date. She’s never been out of the exacta in six career starts and won a Group 1 event in her native Argentina.

R10

Consumerconfidence
Stormin Maclean
Outrageous Bet

CONSUMERCONFIDENCE: Needs a lot of luck to draw in from deep on the AE list, but will be tough to beat if he does. He aired at this route earlier in the meet, and it’s not like there’s much to be afraid of here in his first start against winners; STORMIN MACLEAN: Exits a key race where the top three finishers all came back to win at next asking. He was claimed by Linda Rice that day, and few are better than her at getting new acquisitions cranked at next asking; OUTRAGEOUS BET: Drops back into claiming company after finding the allowance ranks a bit too tough. His effort two back was very strong, and a repeat of that race would make him a contender here.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/19/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $749.75

I’m not going to feed you marketing spin about how great this year’s Alabama is. From a quality standpoint, it’s a step down from previous years (especially the 2016 renewal, where Songbird won in a gallop). However, it is a spectacular betting race, and you’re likely to get a price on whatever horse you think will break through in the absence of divisional heavyweights like Abel Tasman. There are holes in the favorites and cases to make for bigger prices, and as a handicapper, that’s all you can ask for.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: We had the right idea with Missimpazi, who ran a very strong race in her debut. Unfortunately for us, the 4-1 shot got reeled in late, and our $20 win bet fizzled. We did get $10 back from our cancelled double play after the sixth was rained off the turf.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: As if you couldn’t tell by my intro, my action will focus on the feature, which goes as the ninth race. If the morning line odds hold up on #7 ELATE, I’ll take them and run. She seems to be getting better with experience and added distance, and she gave Abel Tasman all she could handle in the Coaching Club American Oaks. I’ll start off with a $5 win/place bet, and I’ll also use her in $3 exactas above and below #2 HOLY HELENA, #4 LOCKDOWN, #5 UNCHAINED MELODY, and #6 SALTY. Finally, I’ll single her in $3 doubles that use #1 ASSERTIVE/#1A WAKE ISLAND and #5 TIME TO FLIRT in the finale.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: La Coronel, Race 8
Longshot: Race Me Home, Race 6

R1

Turbo Street
Southside Warrior
Docs Legacy

TURBO STREET: Drops way down in class after four tries against much better horses. This barn has gotten off to a cold start to the meet, but this class relief is simply too much to ignore; SOUTHSIDE WARRIOR: Was third in a swiftly-run race earlier in the meet. Javier Castellano rides back, and given his history with other runners in this race, it’s safe to assume he had options; DOCS LEGACY: Prevailed at a big price earlier in the meet. He may want a bit longer than he gets here, but a repeat effort puts him right there.

R2

Congruity
Another
Hyndford

CONGRUITY: Fetched $210k at auction and has been working very well ahead of his debut. These connections merit respect, and the turf breeding is there; ANOTHER: Is one to include if he draws in off the AE list. He was second in his debut earlier in the meet for a barn whose first-time starters don’t often win; HYNDFORD: Was a $200k auction purchase and has a pedigree that indicates he should take to turf. The works leave a bit to be desired, but these connections can’t be ignored.

R3

Hexameter
Wildcat Belle
Paluxy Princess

HEXAMETER: Comes back to dirt after being beaten less than two lengths on turf earlier in the meet. Her dirt races earlier this year were all solid, and she could sit an ideal stalking trip; WILDCAT BELLE: Figures to be prominent early in her first start for this barn. She may not get an uncontested lead, but she figures to be the one they’ve got to run down late; PALUXY PRINCESS: Has taken a big step forward in two starts for Carlos Martin. She was second here earlier in the meet and merits a look underneath at a nice price.

R4

Flashy Jewel (MTO)
Manitoulin
Hello Don Julio

MANITOULIN: Was beaten less than two lengths in a Grade 3 last time out and won two in a row before that. He seems to be peaking this season, and it helps that there appears to be some early speed signed on; HELLO DON JULIO: Tried Grade 2 company earlier in the meet and drops back down into the optional claiming ranks here. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because he’s 0-for-2 at Saratoga and that he may not get an easy lead; AQUAPHOBIA: Really hasn’t run a bad race this year. He cuts back in distance after finishing third in a minor stakes race, and he should be running well late. DIRT SELECTIONS: FLASHY JEWEL, DOCTOR MOUNTY, MARENGO ROAD.

R5

Variant Perception
Allured
Super Sermon

VARIANT PERCEPTION: Appears extremely well-meant in his debut. He’s outworked his uncoupled stablemate on multiple occasions, and these connections are always tough; ALLURED: Is said stablemate, one who fetched $600k at auction earlier this year. Chad Brown could easily run 1-2 here; SUPER SERMON: Is a WinStar homebred that’s worked solidly for Todd Pletcher. The pedigree, though, suggests that this one may want longer than the six furlongs he gets here.

R6

Caviar Czar
Meantime
Race Me Home

CAVIAR CZAR: Has improved with every start to date, and his lone win came going a two-turn route of ground. Given the rail draw and his proven early zip, he should be prominent early; MEANTIME: Exits the Grade 1 Belmont, where he was rank early and had nothing left in the later stages of the marathon race. Before that, he was second in the Grade 3 Peter Pan, and a repeat of that effort would make him a major player; RACE ME HOME: Showed promise last yea when second in the Easy Goer. The last two races on turf are throw-outs, and a return to his 2016 form would make his 15-1 morning line a considerable overlay.

R7

Knarsdale (MTO)
Ellery Lane
Mom’s On Strike

ELLERY LANE: Makes her North American debut for Chad Brown off a long layoff. She showed promise in a limited 2-year-old campaign, which featured a fourth-place finish in Group 3 company, and she gets Lasix for the first time; MOM’S ON STRIKE: Came off the bench running last time out when second behind a much-the-best winner. Improvement is logical second off the layoff; CASSE ENTRY: I prefer GIADA VEGAS, who has improved as a 4-year-old and would benefit from a fast early pace. DIRT SELECTIONS: KNARSDALE, MOM’S ON STRIKE, JUST GOT OUT.

R8

La Coronel
Proctor’s Ledge
Uni

LA CORONEL: Returns to the U.S. after competing in a Group 1 at Royal Ascot against some of the best fillies in Europe. The first and second-place finishers both won at next asking, and this one’s races before that journey were very sharp; PROCTOR’S LEDGE: Was impressive in winning the Grade 3 Lake George earlier in the meet. She appears to be improving with experience, and Castellano returning to ride her is a plus; UNI: Rallied well to finish third in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks behind two stablemates. She did get a pace to run at that day, though, and this pace scenario may not be nearly as favorable.

R9

Elate
Unchained Melody
Salty

ELATE: Was beaten just a head by the divisional leader in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks and has the look of a filly that will keep improving. This distance should not be a problem, and she could sit a great trip; UNCHAINED MELODY: Broke through with a wire-to-wire win in the Grade 2 Mother Goose. She earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure that day, but she may not have beaten much in that spot, and she’s never been two turns, let alone this 10-furlong distance; SALTY: Sat an unlucky trip in the Coaching Club, but gave Abel Tasman all she could handle two back in the Acorn. Her best effort would put her right there.

R10

Tapella (MTO)
Bass entry
Time to Flirt

BASS ENTRY: I prefer ASSERTIVE, who took to turf last time out at Belmont. She was a close-up third that day, and she gets a big rider switch in the Saturday finale; TIME TO FLIRT: Has lost back-to-back photos downstate and sports a recent bullet workout since shipping here. She may be better around one turn, but it’s not inconceivable to think she could break through here; MISERICORDIA: Hasn’t run badly in two starts to date and switches to Jose Lezcano, a strong turf rider. She merits an underneath look, especially at her morning line price. DIRT SELECTIONS: TAPELLA, BASS ENTRY, AOIFE.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/18/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $769.75

The Woodward took a serious hit Thursday, when news broke that multiple Grade 1 winner Shaman Ghost would miss the race due to throat surgery. He upset Frosted to win last year’s renewal, and he would have been one of only a few horses in training that figured to make Gun Runner work in his quest for back-to-back Grade 1 victories at Saratoga.

Fun fact: Only one horse has won back-to-back renewals of the Woodward since 1997. That horse was Lido Palace, who did so in 2001 and 2002. After that one, the list of horses to win consecutive Woodwards reads as follows: Cigar, Slew o’ Gold, Forego (four times), Kelso (three times), and Sword Dancer. In an age where top-tier handicap horses are difficult to come by beyond Arrogate and Gun Runner, it’s a shame Shaman Ghost isn’t getting a crack at another Woodward victory.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Clipthecouponannie got a strange trip and was well behind runaway winner Picco Uno. We dropped $20.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fifth race, which features my best bet of the day. That’s #5 MISSIMPAZI, who debuts for Chris Englehart following a series of strong workouts. I’ll put $20 on her to win and key her in $5 doubles that end with #4 LUNAIRE and #6 LUCULLAN in the sixth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Missimpazi, Race 5
Longshot: Alex the Terror, Race 8

R1

Jcs American Dream (MTO)
Pinchbeck
Table for Six

PINCHBECK: Has improved in every start to date and has a pedigree that suggests the added distance she gets today won’t be a problem. She’s got more tactical speed than she showed last time out; TABLE FOR SIX: Has not won in nearly two years, but has also never finished worse than third in eight starts for trainer Ralph Nicks. I can’t endorse her on top, but she can’t be ignored if you’re playing vertical exotics; BAREEQA: Flopped as the favorite last time out, but she’s tough when right and merits a look if she draws in off the AE list. DIRT SELECTIONS: JCS AMERICAN DREAM, KATE IS A TEN, MO PROMISE.

R2

Special Jo
Tug of War
Waco

SPECIAL JO: Seems like the main speed in here and goes out for a barn that’s been knocking at the door all meet long. The inside draw seems favorable given his running style; TUG OF WAR: Has not run a bad race since being claimed by Rudy Rodriguez. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because he may want a bit longer than the six furlongs he gets here; WACO: Is dropped substantially in class for his first start in more than a year. He’s run some exceptional races over this surface, but the drop and the long layoff are both big red flags.

R3

Taoiseach (MTO)
Boss Man
Spin Cycle

BOSS MAN: Drops in for a tag after running an OK third in his 2017 debut. Servis and Ortiz have done tremendous work together, and this gelding seems like the horse to beat; SPIN CYCLE: Drops down in class after setting the pace in his last start against optional claimers. There isn’t much early speed in here, and improvement could happen second off the brief layoff at a bit of a price; SPORTSCASTER: Has run well here in the past and has been extremely competitive at this level. He beat starter allowance foes two back at Churchill, and his best puts him right there. DIRT SELECTIONS: TAOISEACH, CONQUEST TWISTER, JACOBSON ENTRY.

R4

El Dulce
Mentality
Dial One

EL DULCE: Showed plenty of guts in his debut, when he went wire-to-wire at this route and repelled a strong challenge. These connections have won plenty of 2-year-old races here, and they merit respect once again; MENTALITY: Wired the field in her debut and faces the boys here. She’s certainly talented, but the post position is a concern; DIAL ONE: Broke his maiden by daylight on turf and was third in a stakes race on dirt last time out. There’s lots of speed signed on, so he could sit a nice trip.

R5

Missimpazi
Missbigtimes
Tayler’s the Boss

MISSIMPAZI: Has worked very well since shipping here for a barn that has success with 2-year-old runners. The Finger Lakes-based rider coming in for one mount could be a hint that she’s ready to run; MISSBIGTIMES: Was a well-beaten third behind possible division leader Pure Silver in her debut. She didn’t break well that day, and she could certainly improve with experience; TAYLER’S THE BOSS: Fetched $110k at auction last summer and has worked fairly well. This barn has done well of late and can win with debuting runners.

R6

Caviar Czar (MTO)
Lunaire
Lucullan

LUNAIRE: Has been running against some of the best 3-year-old turf horses around, and should appreciate the class relief he gets here. He was beaten just a length by eventual Grade 2 winner Bricks and Mortar two back; LUCULLAN: Rallied well to be third in a swiftly-run race earlier in the meet. The rider switch to Irad Ortiz is noteworthy, and he’d benefit from a faster-than-expected early pace; CONVIVIAL: Rallied from last to first in his debut, which came last month at Monmouth. He didn’t break well that day, so he could be more forwardly-placed out of the gate here. DIRT SELECTIONS: CAVIAR CZAR, LUNAIRE, PAINTER’S RAGS.

R7

Tommy T
Godolphin entry
Commandeering

TOMMY T: Was a sharp second in his debut behind a next-out winner, and he beat several of today’s foes in that race. This barn isn’t known for having horses fully cranked right away, so this colt could be a good one; GODOLPHIN ENTRY: I prefer FULLY VESTED, who was third earlier this meet in his first start since October. He may have needed the race and should step forward here; COMMANDEERING: Returns off a layoff and comes back to dirt. He ran into some nice horses as a 2-year-old, and if he channels that form, he’s a contender.

R8

Alex the Terror
Luna de Loco
Bluegrass Singer

ALEX THE TERROR: Is 2-for-3 with a second at this seven-furlong distance and won at this route earlier in the meet. He does take a slight step up in class, but that day’s rider returns in this spot, and that’s encouraging; LUNA DE LOCO: Was a good second against optional claimers downstate, and the horse he nosed for the place spot came back to win at next asking. This distance should suit him; BLUEGRASS SINGER: Tackled Grade 2 company last time out and ran over a wet surface he did not care for. He topped a very classy field three back going a one-turn mile, and his best race could win this.

R9

Play Unified (MTO)
Eila
Miss Katie Mae

EILA: Has top-end early speed and is a stakes-quality turf sprinter when she’s right. She was fifth in a stakes race last time out and should be the controlling pace presence in this spot; MISS KATIE MAE: Has not won in more than a year, but was a strong second at this level and route last month. She’d be the chief beneficiary if another horse went with my top pick early on; TRUE CHARM: Is at her best at this route. She won an allowance race earlier in the meet and merits a look at a big price given her local record. DIRT SELECTIONS: PLAY UNIFIED, SILVERTONI, APPEALING MAGGIE.

R10

Sanavi
Mister Hayes
Benny Big Boy

SANAVI: Drops way down in class for powerhouse connections and returns to dirt. He won on the main track in his debut and attracts Jose Ortiz in what appears to be a wide-open finale; MISTER HAYES: Graduated last time out at Belmont and was claimed out of that race by Michelle Nevin. She does solid work with new acquisitions; BENNY BIG BOY: Was midpack in a pretty tough race for this level last time out. He’s shown more tactical speed than that in the past and could improve off of that effort.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/17/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $789.75

I wish I could use this space to talk about something witty, or amusing, or easy to digest. Having said that, the events of the past few days have made that impossible for me to do. I posted a piece to AndrewChampagne.com Wednesday morning about the events in Charlottesville, Va., and there are some things that are just plain more important than who I like in the fourth race.

If you’re interested, it’s here. If you aren’t, I get that, too. Having said that, my great-uncle, who still resides in upstate New York, fought similar evils in 1944 when wounded at the Battle of Saipan. We shouldn’t be fighting the same battle more than 70 years later.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: My Mr. Wonderful was dueled into defeat in the fifth, and as such, all of our plays fizzled. We dropped $30.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll gamble that #5 CLIPTHECOUPONANNIE bounces back after a dud last time out over a very sloppy track at Belmont. My play is a $10 win/place bet on the Todd Pletcher trainee, and I’m hoping we get her 6-1 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Dreamy Margarita, Race 4
Longshot: Clipthecouponannie, Race 8

R1

Honor Way
Friend of Liberty
Easy Way Out

HONOR WAY: Was an incredibly hard-luck loser earlier in the meet (trust me, I know, I bet her). She was claimed out of that race by an outfit that excels with new acquisitions; FRIEND OF LIBERTY: Was second Sunday and is wheeled back quickly by the new connections. Her best race is certainly good enough to win; EASY WAY OUT: Has not run a bad race to this point in her career. She faces winners for the first time, and these connections must be respected.

R2

Brooklyn Speights
Heat Check
Saratoga Colonel

BROOKLYN SPEIGHTS: Stretches back out to two turns, and he’s run fairly well at such routes in the past. This is a very confusing race, and this one’s past races at similar routes appear best; HEAT CHECK: May have simply detested sprinting at Belmont. He stretches back out here, and note that his two best races came going long; SARATOGA COLONEL: Comes back to the turf and tries two turns for the first time. The pedigree seems to indicate that the distance shouldn’t be a problem, but I hesitate to take a short price on a horse trying something new.

R3

Thebigfundamental
Sail Ahoy
Securitiz

THEBIGFUNDAMENTAL: Was a beaten favorite earlier in the meet over a tiring track that was not kind to his running style. The surface has been a bit more speed-favoring of late, and that should help him; SAIL AHOY: Was a promising 2-year-old back in 2015, and while he hasn’t moved forward a ton from that form, he’s run well in tough spots and should be going the right way late; SECURITIZ: Has plenty of ability, and his best race could win this, but he’s run second a lot, and I don’t like endorsing such horses on top.

R4

Dreamy Margarita
Mojo’s Queen
Veil Dance

DREAMY MARGARITA: Ran a puzzling clunker last time out after breaking her maiden impressively two back. I’m drawing a line through the most recent race, and she should appreciate the drop in class; MOJO’S QUEEN: Woke up when switched to the Ralph Nicks barn earlier this year. She led briefly at this level downstate, and Irad Ortiz returns to ride; VEIL DANCE: Just missed last time out in a race that did not set up for her late-running style. There should be more pace signed on here.

R5

Smokin Platinum
Dark Ops
Sea Foam

SMOKIN PLATINUM: Did everything but win in his debut, when he set the early pace and was reeled in late. Rosario rides back, and a repeat of that effort would make this one tough to beat; DARK OPS: Has worked very well ahead of his debut, and Rudy Rodriguez and Irad Ortiz must be respected. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s that he may want to go longer; SEA FOAM: Is bred to be a good one. He’s by Medaglia d’Oro and out of an Unbridled’s Song mare, and he’s another that may be worth watching as races get longer.

R6

Hard Scramble
Beasley
Grumpelstiltskin

HARD SCRAMBLE: Was third behind a well-meant horse last time out at this level. This race seems to set up for a closer, so this colt’s flexibility could be a big, big plus; BEASLEY: Returns off a long layoff after tackling heavy hitters in Florida earlier this season. He merits plenty of respect, but this seems shorter than he wants to go, the rail is a concern, and there won’t be any value here; GRUMPELSTILTSKIN: Is another coming off the bench, and he does so making his first start for Jeremiah Englehart. The recent works are very sharp, and he figures to be a major player if he’s ready to run.

R7

Summer Luck
Taperge
Initiate

SUMMER LUCK: Was third in a Grade 3 two back, and that day’s runner-up won a graded stakes here earlier in the meet. She’s got some tactical speed, which could come in handy given the relative lack of early zip in here; TAPERGE: Was beaten less than a length in a stakes race back in April and has been rested since that effort. She’d benefit from a quick early pace, and these connections are formidable; INITIATE: Just missed last time out when setting the early fractions, and she figures to be the main speed. If she’s left alone, she could be tough to run down.

R8

Clipthecouponannie
Quezon
Court Dancer

CLIPTHECOUPONANNIE: Was a big disappointment last time out at 2/5, but I’m willing to draw a line through that race, which came over a very sloppy track. She was also coming off a career-best effort, and a return to that form would make her morning line odds very appealing; QUEZON: Was second in this race last year and once again is worth a look. She may be at her best on a wet track, but her most recent effort was solid and she should be going well late; COURT DANCER: Hasn’t won in a while but figures to be a main pace player. She was second in a stakes race last time out, and this barn has had a tremendous meet to date.

R9

Tayler’s the Boss (MTO)
Carrera Cat
Centr of the Stage

CARRERA CAT: Needs some luck to draw in off the AE list, but seems to be the one to beat if she does. She was fourth in her debut behind a well-meant Todd Pletcher charge, and improvement is logical at second asking; CENTR OF THE STAGE: Adds blinkers in her second turf start and is eligible to improve with a better trip. She’s had no trip luck in either of her first two starts; SCATBACK: Was bet heavily in her debut, where she ran fourth while racing greenly. She should improve in her second start, but the rail draw is a concern.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/16/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $819.75

I got in an interesting discussion online the other day about the current 3-year-old picture and the potential for an unconventional winner of the Champion 3-Year-Old Male Eclipse Award. Long story short, if Always Dreaming wins the Travers, he likely clinches the trophy, while Cloud Computing or Tapwrit would certainly have a significant (but not insurmountable) edge if one of them won the Midsummer Derby.

However, what if a non-winner of a Triple Crown race won the Travers? That opens the door for a horse like Oscar Performance, provided he steps up and beats older horses at the Grade 1 level. Additionally, what happens if a horse like American Anthem or Coal Front wins the Allen Jerkens and follows it up with a win in either the Breeders’ Cup Sprint or the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile? It’s a fascinating scenario, and the next domino falls in a week and a half at Saratoga.

MONDAY’S RESULTS: In short, ugh. Everything Magic lost a photo for second in the opener to a 45-1 shot, and one of the horses we keyed her with in exactas won. It was a painful way to drop $22.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fifth race. #4 MY MR. WONDERFUL ran a big race in his debut last month, which was rained off the turf. I’ll key him in $4 exactas above and below #2 SICILIA SAL, #6 JOE’S SMOKIN GUN, and #10 TEN EYCK, as well as in $3 doubles that use #4 PADEN and #6 ROCKFORD in the sixth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Claiborne entry, Race 7
Longshot: Paden, Race 6

R1

Mutasaawy
Kremlin
Bishop’s Castle

MUTASAAWY: Cruised home last time out when crushing maidens at Parx and seems to have taken to hurdles like a duck to water. This seems like a fairly soft spot to try winners for the first time; KREMLIN: Figures to be the main speed in here. He set the pace earlier this meet against better horses and could be dangerous if he gets loose early on; BISHOP’S CASTLE: Lost the jock last time out at Parx but has run several solid races of late, including a win two back.

R2

Spieth
Powerful Ally
D’ambrosio

SPIETH: Tries two turns for the first time in his second start off the layoff, and the pedigree indicates that this is exactly what he wants. He’s worked well and should be prominent early; POWERFUL ALLY: Was an OK third earlier in the meet in his first start off a freshening. Jose Ortiz riding back is a big plus; D’AMBROSIO: Is another stretching out to two turns with the pedigree to embrace such a route. The rider switch to Castellano is notable, but he finished behind my top pick last time out when that one probably needed the race.

R3

Motion entry
Muqtaser
Fire Away

MOTION ENTRY: Both HOLIDAY STAR and STREET FASHION can win this turf marathon. The former is a multiple graded stakes winner, while the latter exits a stakes race at Delaware Park; MUQTASER: Was brilliantly-ridden last time out by Joe Bravo in a win at this route. Don’t be surprised if Jersey Joe sends him again, especially in such a small field; FIRE AWAY: Loves this distance and may have needed his race earlier this month off a freshening. He was beaten less than two lengths in stakes company that day and merits respect here.

R4

Lady Constance
Jump for Joy
Dubb entry

LADY CONSTANCE: Has not won in a while, but that can be said of many in here, and this filly drops way down in class in this spot. Her lone try at anywhere close to this level was a tough-luck second two back; JUMP FOR JOY: Was a runaway winner last time out at Aqueduct, but that was almost a year and a half ago. Pletcher can get horses ready to run, though, and the fact that she is ineligible to be claimed today could speak volumes about the barn’s intentions; DUBB ENTRY: I prefer EASY WAY OUT, who graduated last time out after burning money twice at Aqueduct. The rider switch is a concern, but her usual effort puts her right there.

R5

My Mr. Wonderful
Ten Eyck
Joe’s Smokin Gun

MY MR. WONDERFUL: Ran well in his debut last month despite the race being rained off the turf. The connections should get the desired route today, and improvement is logical at second asking; TEN EYCK: Doesn’t draw a great post, but is bred up and down to be a very strong turf horse. He’s by Freud and out of a City Zip mare, and he’ll likely be a square price; JOE’S SMOKIN GUN: Was a solid second two back on turf before running in the same race my top pick exits. The connections are cold, but a repeat of the two-back effort could easily get him a piece of this. DIRT SELECTIONS: MY MR. WONDERFUL, STOLEN PISTOL, JOE’S SMOKIN GUN.

R6

Paden
Rockford
Players Group entry

PADEN: Has run well against better horses going longer, one-turn route distances and ships in for a high-percentage barn. There doesn’t appear to be much early speed signed on, so don’t be surprised if he’s forwardly-placed; ROCKFORD: Generally runs the same race every time out and was a solid second earlier this month in his first start for David Jacobson. He’s another with tactical speed, and his best puts him right there; PLAYERS GROUP ENTRY: I prefer FULL SALUTE, who comes back to the dirt after a failed experiment on turf last time out. He won at this distance two back beneath Jose Ortiz, and that pilot returns here.

R7

Claiborne entry
End Play
Fear

CLAIBORNE ENTRY: COMMEND is clearly the horse to beat here. He exits the Grade 2 Highlander at Woodbine, which was won by world-class turf sprinter Green Mask, and this spot represents significant class relief; END PLAY: Was beaten less than a length in a strong race for the level earlier this meet. He’s run well here in the past and generally runs the same race every time out; FEAR: Has won three of his last four and merits a longshot look. The lone defeat in that stretch was in a dirt race, and turf is clearly what he wants.

R8

Mobridge
Damage Control
No Texting

MOBRIDGE: Beat a number of these rivals last time out and comes back at the level here. If there’s a concern, it’s that all three visible wins in the form were at Belmont, but note that he ran fairly well going two turns at Gulfstream earlier this year; DAMAGE CONTROL: Was beaten a length by my top pick last time out and didn’t have much pace to close into that day. If someone goes with that horse early, it could set up for this one; NO TEXTING: Was fourth in that common race, but was inexplicably rated that day after showing ample early speed in his previous six starts. Given that fact, the rider switch is no shock.

R9

Sly Beauty
March X Press
Fairyland

SLY BEAUTY: Ran into runaway Schuylerville winner Dream It Is in her debut and jogged last time out. This barn is starting to turn strong efforts into wins, and this one could have plenty of talent; MARCH X PRESS: Closed like a freight train to win her debut earlier in the meet at this route. There should certainly be plenty of early speed in front of her; FAIRYLAND: Exits a Group 3 at Royal Ascot, and the blinkers come back on. If there’s a concern here, it’s the rail draw, which has not been kind in turf sprints this meet.

R10

Borsa Vento
Irst
Britain

BORSA VENTO: Drops way down in class, and given the horrible trip, his last race is a throwout. He’s run well at this distance against better in the past, and I’ll give him another shot; IRST: Looked like a promising horse when second here last summer behind an eventual Grade 3 winner, but he hasn’t moved forward since then. The class drop should certainly help, as would a pace battle up front; BRITAIN: Has shown some zip since dropping to the maiden claiming ranks, but was a distant fourth at this level earlier in the meet. Still, he merits respect given the powerful trainer/jockey combination.