The Saratogian

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/5/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $975.25

Just how bad was my luck Thursday? After 10 top picks led to nine in-the-money finishes but just one win, I went to an establishment near my apartment for dinner. I ordered a sandwich with no mushrooms or onions, and it was delivered in two halves. One half was made as ordered. The other half of the same sandwich, you guessed it, had mushrooms and onions. When something as confounding as that happens, you know you’re having a strange day.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Petrov was ultra-impressive in victory in the eighth race. Our exactas got split by a longshot, but our $22 post-scratch investment returned an even $30 thanks to a successful win-place bet.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll take a shot in the early Pick Four, which begins in the second race. I’m punching the “ALL” button to start things off, and I’ll use #1 APPLE BETTY and #4 SUFFUSED in the third, include #5 STRONG CURRENT, #6 ECLIPSED MOON, #8 SEABHAC, and #10 SURVEY in the fourth, and single #5 DELTA PRINCE (one of my best bets of the day) in the fifth. I’m hoping we get a price or two home early in the sequence before Royal Delta’s little brother takes the stage. As usual, this wager assumes all races carded for the turf stay there.

TOTAL WAGERED: $32

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Projected, Race 7
Longshot: Schivarelli, Race 11

R1

Dubb entry
Sandy’z Slew
Uncle Youdge

DUBB ENTRY: This owner has a powerful hand, as GRAND SKY is a major player if this stays on turf and stakes-winner MARRIEDTOTHEMUSIC is strictly the one to beat if it gets rained off; SANDY’Z SLEW: Improved last time out in his second start off a layoff and has run some strong races at this route in the past; UNCLE YOUDGE: Ships up from Monmouth Park and seems like the main speed in here. The outside draw isn’t great, but he may be fast enough early to clear the field. DIRT SELECTIONS: MARRIEDTOTHEMUSIC, LOVE THAT JAZZ, NOBODY MOVE.

R2

Zap Zap Zap
Godolphin entry
Ride On Faith

ZAP ZAP ZAP: Goes to the barn of Todd Pletcher and exits a very fast race at this level downstate. The runner-up came back to crush similar company earlier in the meet, and this gelding gets a big rider switch to John Velazquez; GODOLPHIN ENTRY: Either part of this entry could win this, but I prefer FULLY VESTED, who was a solid second in his debut for a barn whose horses often need a race to get going. The addition of Lasix could make a big difference; RIDE ON FAITH: Ran into the promising Phi Beta Express last time out and has improved with every start. Further progression would likely lead to a piece of it here.

R3

Suffused
Apple Betty
Guilty Twelve

SUFFUSED: Loves this turf course and gets a bit of class relief. She was beaten less than a length in a contentious Grade 2 last time out, and this seems like a bit softer of a spot; APPLE BETTY: Took advantage of a slow pace last time out against a number of rivals that also show up here. A similar scenario could present itself here, as there isn’t much other speed signed on; GUILTY TWELVE: Has won two in a row, including a Grade 3 at Delaware. She’s in career-best form and boasts a win over this turf course.

R4

Super Sermon (MTO)
Eclipsed Moon
Strong Current

ECLIPSED MOON: Came flying late in his unveiling and was beaten just a neck. This barn’s horses usually get better with experience, and given the $400k pricetag, it’s safe to assume big things are expected; STRONG CURRENT: Didn’t do much running in his debut, but he’s bred to go long and adds blinkers here. First-crop stallion Orb has already sired one turf winner this meet; SURVEY: Is another who was one-paced in a sprint debut, but this pedigree says he’ll love going long on the lawn. He also didn’t get an ideal setup in his unveiling, which featured a very slow early pace. DIRT SELECTIONS: SUPER SERMON, VARIANT PERCEPTION, ROAMING UNION.

R5

Gift Box (MTO)
Delta Prince
Mutazen

DELTA PRINCE: May not be the same kind of horse as sister Royal Delta, but he’s shown plenty of ability. He was a close second in a Grade 3 earlier this year, and if he’s ready to run off the bench, he’s strictly the one to beat; MUTAZEN: Was third in a classy allowance race downstate and has shown plenty of early zip. Lezcano getting off is a bit befuddling, but this one should be prominent early; STRIKE MIDNIGHT: Hasn’t won in a while, but has plenty of back class. His last win came off a long layoff similar to what he returns from here, and he was third in a Grade 2 on this turf course last summer. DIRT SELECTIONS: GIFT BOX, DELTA PRINCE, VULCAN’S FORGE.

R6

Engage
Slot
Arrival

ENGAGE: Has worked like one of the top 2-year-olds on the grounds ahead of his debut. He boasts a lofty $550k purchase price, and these connections must be respected; SLOT: Has a dam whose full brother is Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Trinniberg. He’s bred to be a rocket ship, and it’s tough to ignore the tag team of Pletcher and Castellano; ARRIVAL: Probably lost all chance at the start in his debut. He salvaged fourth that day, and improvement is logical at second asking.

R7

Projected
Ring Weekend
Camelot Kitten

PROJECTED: Has run second in back-to-back graded races and drops into the ungraded ranks. A repeat of either of those efforts would make him very tough to beat; RING WEEKEND: Won a Grade 1 in 2015 and captured a pair of Grade 2 events last year, but hasn’t shown as much in his 2017 campaign. His best race wins this, but it’s unclear if he can channel that form; CAMELOT KITTEN: Won four graded events as a 3-year-old and makes his seasonal debut here. His back class is substantial, but he faces many heavy hitters here (including my top pick, a stablemate).

R8

American Gal
Faypien
Chalon

AMERICAN GAL: Is undefeated in sprint races and was extremely impressive in her 2017 debut. She won the Victory Ride by nearly five lengths, and her recent works indicate she bounced out of that race very well; FAYPIEN: Has won three in a row and merits respect shipping east for Bob Baffert. She won a Grade 2 going longer when last seen, and the recent works are very strong; CHALON: Took advantage of an easy lead in an ungraded stakes race downstate. She’ll be prominent early, and this California-based barn is firing on all cylinders.

R9

Gun Runner
Breaking Lucky
Keen Ice

GUN RUNNER: Has gone from a very good 3-year-old to an excellent 4-year-old. His only loss since the 2016 Breeders’ Cup came when Arrogate put forth an otherworldly performance in Dubai, and while the likely wet track is a bit of a concern, note that it was wet in Dubai, too; BREAKING LUCKY: Hasn’t won in a while but may benefit from the likely race shape. Unlike many in here, he does not need the lead, and he could sit a perfect stalking trip just off the ample early speed; KEEN ICE: Sprang an upset in the Grade 2 Suburban downstate for his first win since the 2015 Travers. The race shape figures to suit him, but he may want even more ground than the nine furlongs he’ll get here.

R10

Clipthecouponannie (MTO)
Sassy Little Lila
On Leave

SASSY LITTLE LILA: Was a close second in the Grade 1 Just A Game last time out and figures to be the main speed in here. Her back class is substantial, and she ran a massive race over this turf course last year on closing day; ON LEAVE: Is a Grade 2 winner and the other major player in here. She may be best around one turn, but she’ll certainly be running well late; ELYSEA’S WORLD: Drops down in class a bit after spending her entire 2017 campaign to date against graded stakes company. Her best race puts her right there, but this isn’t much easier than the fields she’s faced of late.

R11

Neolithic
Schivarelli
Mo Town

NEOLITHIC: Ran third to Arrogate twice earlier this season and begins his summer/fall campaign here. This may be a bit shorter than he wants to go, but if he’s right, he’ll be very tough to beat; SCHIVARELLI: Drops back down the class ladder after chasing some tough sprinters in his last two. He won at this route last year, and this distance hits him right between the eyes; MO TOWN: Is very tough when he’s right, but his two 2017 efforts were total duds. He’s been working well, though, and he’d certainly benefit from a wet track.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/4/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $967.25

I had something witty cued up for this section before the fatal breakdown of Fall Colors in Thursday’s steeplechase race. No matter how long you’ve been in this game, there’s never a point where that stuff doesn’t affect you. My heart goes out to the connections of the fallen horse, who went through unimaginable pain yesterday.

One quick thing: If you think steeplechase racing is at fault for this, you’re wrong. Science has shown that most steeplechase falls are much, much safer than those that occur on the flat, and this part of the game gives many at-risk horses a second career. Being sad about the breakdown is rational, as is abstaining from betting steeplechase races because of the added jumps involved. Blaming the nature of those races for the breakdown we saw Thursday is not.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: We were alive to some pretty nice doubles heading into the fifth, but the horses we used in that race did not include 15-1 shot Tarawa, who won going away. As such, we dropped $30.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the eighth race of a very difficult card. #4 PETROV was nearly my best bet of the day given his back class, and given the big field that will go postward, we may get his 3-1 morning line price. I’ll put $5 on him to win and place and key him in $2 exacta plays that use him above and below #7 POCKET SQUARE, #9 PORTFOLIO MANAGER, #10 DIVINE INTERVENTIO, and #11 LENSTAR.

TOTAL WAGERED: $26

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Switzerland, Race 3
Longshot: Team Colors, Race 5

R1

Sand City
Corey Q
Lightworker

SAND CITY: Has run just one bad race on dirt, and that effort was followed by a six-month layoff, so it’s safe to assume something went wrong that day. This barn has quietly had a very strong start to the meet; COREY Q: Drops down in class and goes back to dirt for one of the top barns on the grounds. Her debut on dirt wasn’t bad, but demand value on this one before moving forward; LIGHTWORKER: Was a good second in her debut at Delaware against weaker foes. This is a class test for her, but she could improve at second asking and may be a bit of a price.

R2

Luna Rising
Bahnahno
Talkn Til Midnight

LUNA RISING: Showed interest early on in the meet against better before fading late. She was up close to a pretty fast pace that day, and she should sit an easier trip here; BAHNAHNO: Takes a huge class drop and may benefit from some speed having signed on. The rail isn’t ideal for her running style, but the faster they go early, the better this one figures to like it; TALKN TIL MIDNIGHT: Cuts back in distance, returns to dirt, and is another taking a big drop in class. This barn must be respected in spots like these.

R3

Switzerland
Fully Vested (MTO)
Sethary

SWITZERLAND: Completely missed the break last time out, and as such, you can draw a line through that effort. His dam was a strong turf runner, so he should take to the lawn just fine; SETHARY: Woke up in his turf debut, running a good second against maiden claimers. This is a tougher field, but he does figure to be the main speed; FACTORIAL: Probably needed his last race, which came off a layoff of nearly five months. The top three finishers from that event have all come back to win at next asking. DIRT SELECTIONS: SWITZERLAND, FULLY VESTED, UNCLE PANCHO.

R4

Pauseforthecause
Big Expense
My Roxy Girl

PAUSEFORTHECAUSE: Has worked well ahead of her unveiling. This barn isn’t the best with first-time starters, but this one was bred to be a real runner (her dam was Grade 1-placed); BIG EXPENSE: Is another who may need a race, but she’s flashed potential in several downstate drills. The ones that have run before don’t impress me much, so I’ll use this firster at a bit of a price; MY ROXY GIRL: Probably has the most potential to move up of all the runners who have race experience. The jockey switch to Castellano is huge, especially since he doesn’t ride for this barn much.

R5

Schivarelli (MTO)
Forge
Team Colors

FORGE: Broke through last time out at Churchill, earning a 100 Beyer Speed Figure. He’s flashed potential dating back to his time in Europe, and he may be reaching a high level; TEAM COLORS: Would be a tremendous value play at anywhere close to the morning line. He comes back to the turf, where he’s run a number of high-quality races, and he gets significant class relief; MONSTER BEA: Is another accomplished turf runner who drops in from graded stakes company. This barn got off to a cold start to the meet, but this gelding is a contender in this spot. DIRT SELECTIONS: SCHIVARELLI, TEAM COLORS, LINE JUDGE.

R6

Tizelle
Barrel of Dreams
Style Drift

TIZELLE: Came back running off the long layoff, winning an entry-level allowance downstate. She’s done very little wrong in three career starts, and we may not have seen the best of her yet; BARREL OF DREAMS: Loves Saratoga, having won here twice a year ago. Her last-out effort was an improvement, and her best race could win this; STYLE DRIFT: Hasn’t been seen in nearly two years, but did not run a bad race in four starts before the extended break, and the Chad Brown barn merits respect. DIRT SELECTIONS: YOUNG ANNA LEE, BARREL OF DREAMS, IRON MIZZ.

R7

Lifelong Dreamer
Curtis
Italian Syndicate

LIFELONG DREAMER: Probably lost all chance at the break last time out in his search for a third straight win. Gary Gullo does excellent work with new acquisitions, and top rider Jose Ortiz will be in the irons; CURTIS: Takes a big drop in class for aggressive connections after running against some tough 3-year-olds in each of his last two starts. The recent bullet drill could indicate he’s sitting on a nice race; ITALIAN SYNDICATE: Was a spectacular flop at 3/5 when last seen. He was claimed out of that race by a high-percentage barn, and if you draw a line through that race, he certainly fits.

R8

Petrov
Divine Interventio
Pocket Square

PETROV: Spent most of the spring on the Derby trail and has run against graded stakes foes in each of his last five starts. He was fourth behind likely Allen Jerkens favorite American Anthem at this distance two back, and a similar race wins this; DIVINE INTERVENTIO: Hasn’t run a bad race since cutting back to sprint distances last fall. He was third behind Coal Front in his last start and should be coming late; POCKET SQUARE: Went wire-to-wire in his first start off a long layoff. His July 22nd work was very sharp, and given his relative inexperience, we may get a price.

R9

Bricks and Mortar
Yoshida
Snap Decision

BRICKS AND MORTAR: Is a perfect 3-for-3 and beat several of these foes last time out in a stakes race downstate. He won going two turns in his debut and could be another top-class turf runner for this barn; YOSHIDA: May not have wanted the Belmont Derby distance, and the slow pace set in front of him didn’t help. He showed tons of talent in his stakes win two back and cannot be ignored; SNAP DECISION: Was second behind my top pick two back and most recently won a solid optional claimer. The runner-up has since come back to win, and this one could sit a perfect stalking trip here.

R10

Set Me Up
Calculated Risker
Captain Kidd

SET ME UP: Needs lots of luck to draw in but looks imposing on the drop in class if he does. His turf races last year against straight maidens were not bad, and these connections mean business; CALCULATED RISKER: Also drops in class off of a solid last-out effort going shorter. This barn hasn’t gotten off to a great start, but this seems like a logical spot for this morning-line favorite; CAPTAIN KIDD: Was handed no favors when rating off of a slow pace last time out, yet rallied to be beaten just a length. Two turns is a question mark, but this gelding seems to be in good form. DIRT SELECTIONS: ARTHUR AVENUE, MR. MASSENA, CALCULATED RISKER.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/3/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $997.25

Earlier this week, a number of members of the horse racing media fell victim to a fake story involving prominent sire Tapit and an, um…interesting way of collecting some of the most valuable sperm in the breeding industry. Search for Tapit on Twitter, and many of the pieces will start to come together.

Long story short: If you fell for it, or even for a second considered it to potentially be true…REALLY?!?!?!?!?!

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Turning 1/2 odds into 5/2 odds doesn’t sound so flashy, but doing so in the late double led to a nice score. Carina Mia was odds-on, and when she and Todd Pletcher firster March X Press both won, we turned our $30 investment into a smooth $105. By comparison, had we simply bet that $30 to win on Carina Mia, we’d have cashed out for a mere $46.50.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll keep this pretty simple. I think the fifth is a two-horse race between #2 MAD DOG MATTERS and #5 SENZA TE. I’ll box them in $10 exactas and use them to close out $5 doubles that begin with fourth-race single #2 BECKER’S GALAXY.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Becker’s Galaxy, Race 4
Longshot: Mad Dog Matters, Race 5

R1

Sarah Joyce
For Goodness Sake
Amazing Anthem

SARAH JOYCE: Won two in a row before misfiring last time out over soft ground. Judging by her past clunkers across the pond in races on that kind of turf, she wants it firm, and she’ll be tough if she gets those conditions; FOR GOODNESS SAKE: Beat my top pick two back but got six pounds and a favorable setup that day. That said, her best is good enough to win this; AMAZING ANTHEM: Broke her maiden over hurdles two back. This is a major class test, but she gets a hot rider, and the race seems wide-open for underneath honors behind my top two.

R2

Iwishirish
Desert Affair
Love You Dearly

IWISHIRISH: Took a big step forward off a long layoff downstate. The rail draw isn’t ideal for her late-running style, but there’s plenty of speed signed on and these connections merit respect; DESERT AFFAIR: Did all the dirty work and was nailed on the wire last time out. She’s got a habit of collecting minor awards, but she could sit a dream trip if she can clear some of her inside rivals out of the gate; LOVE YOU DEARLY: Showed speed in her debut at Finger Lakes and ships in for a barn that popped with several similar horses here last summer. She figures to be very prominent early on.

R3

Hogy
Big Rock
Angry Moon

HOGY: Gets the top pick in what struck me as a two-horse race. He’s been running against much better horses for most of his career and exits the Jaipur, where the victorious Disco Partner set a world record; BIG ROCK: Was 2-for-2 at this route last summer but hasn’t won since. The return to this configuration could wake him up; ANGRY MOON: Seems like the main early speed on paper and has a pair of triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures to his credit. However, he hasn’t run since November, and there’s a chance he needs a race to get going. DIRT SELECTIONS: ANGRY MOON, ANYTIME ANYPLACE, HEY JABBER JAW.

R4

Becker’s Galaxy
Rodriguez entry
Jet Black

BECKER’S GALAXY: Drops back in to face state-breds after finishing a distant second behind Small Bear, who hit the board earlier this meet in the Curlin. Danny Gargan’s barn is firing on all cylinders, and this one is a logical wire-to-wire threat; RODRIGUEZ ENTRY: I prefer the returning GOOD LUCK GUS to the off-form ROYAL POSSE. The former ran against stakes competition for most of last year and will make his first start as a gelding in this spot; JET BLACK: Has run well at this route before and was claimed by Robertino Diodoro in his last start, which was his first since February. Improvement is logical at a bit of a price.

R5

Mad Dog Matters
Senza Te
Lady Blessings

MAD DOG MATTERS: Has several strong drills in her worktab ahead of her debut for Rudy Rodriguez, who has snuck several talented 2-year-olds past maiden claiming ranks in the past (including Condo Commando for this ownership group a few years ago). 6-1 would be a very juicy price; SENZA TE: Is trained by Wesley Ward, who’s among the best in the game with first-time starters. The pedigree and workouts are both strong, and she could be ready to go right away; LADY BLESSINGS: Gets the services of Javier Castellano in her debut. This barn’s numbers with debuting runners aren’t great, and neither is the rail draw, but the workouts show that this filly may have some talent.

R6

Avery Maeve
May Flowers
R Lucky Charm

AVERY MAEVE: Gets my reluctant top selection in a race where I’d strongly advise hitting the “ALL” button in multi-race wagers. She’s yet to run a bad race on turf and won at this route last summer; MAY FLOWERS: Ended a long winless drought last time out at Belmont and returns to a turf course she’s had success over in the past. Jose Ortiz stays aboard, and she’s a big price on the morning line; R LUCKY CHARM: Nearly prevailed in an off-the-turf event last time out and may be the main speed from her inside post. This barn can get hot in a hurry, and if she gets loose early, look out. DIRT SELECTIONS: R LUCKY CHARM, HEXAMETER, FIRST APPEAL.

R7

Kahrumana
Danceland
Tamit

KAHRUMANA: Graduated last time out while well in hand, and she hadn’t done much wrong in two starts before that, either. Her flexibility is a plus, and she could still be improving; DANCELAND: Closed well to be second last time out downstate, and her lone win came going a two-turn route of ground. There appears to be some speed to her inside, and the faster they go early, the better this one should like it; TAMIT: Was beaten less than three lengths in a Grade 3 two back and was up against it in a paceless race last time out. She’s another that will benefit from some early zip in front of her. DIRT SELECTIONS: COLORFUL CHARADES, OVERNEGOTIATE, CRIMSON FROST.

R8

Tu Brutus
Scuba
Turco Bravo

TU BRUTUS: Will likely scratch to await Saturday’s Whitney but is too good not to put on top in case the connections call an audible. Anything close to his races two or three back would make this a rout; SCUBA: Was probably the best marathoner in the country late last year but has disappointed in three 2017 outings. This barn has been hot lately, though, and if he finds his form, he’ll be tough; TURCO BRAVO: Won this race last year and should relish a return to this route. Javier Castellano was aboard that day, and he climbs back on here.

R9

Whiskey Seven
Seize
Runaway Posse

WHISKEY SEVEN: Generally runs the same race every time out and has run into some solid fields for this level of late. He gets my top selection in another turf race that doubles as a real handicapping puzzle; SEIZE: Showed speed in his 2017 debut before fading to sixth. He ran a nice race here last year from a tough outside post and could enjoy a return to this route; RUNAWAY POSSE: Merits a look in the event of a pace meltdown, which could happen given the big field that’s signed on. This barn has had success of late, and we may get a price. DIRT SELECTIONS: WHISKEY SEVEN, CURIOUS CAL, POP THE HOOD.

R10

Wish Upon
Scarlett Jo Hansen
Paz the Wine

WISH UPON: Took a huge step forward when second at this level downstate. There’s a chance at a bounce here, but a repeat of that performance could win this wide-open finale; SCARLETT JO HANSEN: Was beaten a nose by my top selection in her last effort, and like my top pick, she took a big step up that day. The question with her is if there’ll be enough early speed to set up for her late kick; PAZ THE WINE: Stretches out to a route after some solid races going shorter at Belmont. She was third in a two-turn race last year at Aqueduct and may have more tactical speed than she’s shown of late. DIRT SELECTIONS: MAJESTIC MAC, SCARLETT JO HANSEN, GOT THE GIST.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/2/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $922.25

At most places, Wednesday cards consist of shorter, lower-quality fields than you’ll see on weekends. Not so, however, on the 11th day of the Saratoga meet. The races comprising the late Pick Four boast a combined total of 41 betting interests, and that’s not even counting the also-eligibles that could run in the event of a scratch. If you’re playing that sequence, good luck; if you hit, chances are you’ll be rewarded handsomely!

MONDAY’S RESULTS: I thought Winston’s Chance was worth a look in the exotics in the seventh, but at no point did I think he was beating my best bet of the day, Minsky Moment. Unfortunately for my Pick Four ticket, the Finger Lakes shipper got an easy lead and held on. After scratches, we dropped $24.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: If #3 CARINA MIA fires anything close to her best shot in the ninth (the Shine Again Stakes), every other horse is running for second money. I’ll hope to get a smidgeon of value out of that one by singling her in $10 doubles that end with #5 IMPERFECT UNION, #7 MARCH X PRESS, and #9 PURELY LUCKY in the 10th.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Carina Mia, Race 9
Longshot: My Man Jax, Race 5

R1

Invocation
Alcazar de Maram
Unsinkable

INVOCATION: Has not run a bad race over hurdles since coming to North America four back and jogged home by 16 when last seen in My. His consistency gives him an edge; ALCAZAR DE MARAM: Won his seasonal debut on the flat at Parx and merits respect for one of the top steeplechase trainers in the country. He’ll need to beat winners to take this, though, and he hasn’t done that before; UNSINKABLE: Hit an iceberg here last year when beaten 81 lengths as an odds-on favorite. He hasn’t won since, but he was nosed by a next-out winner when last seen at Parx.

R2

Avast Matey
Top Brass
Sound the Horns

AVAST MATEY: Makes his New York debut after spending the first part of his career in Florida. The new surface is a concern, but he’s been working lights-out at Belmont and here ahead of this race and he should be prominent early; TOP BRASS: Drops down in class and is 2-for-2 over fast dirt tracks. These connections must be respected, but the limited worktab off the layoff is a bit of a red flag; SOUND THE HORNS: Looked great when topping winners last out at Presque Isle. This field is likely better than what he beat that day on a synthetic track, but a repeat of that effort likely gets him a piece of it here.

R3

Harlan Punch (MTO)
Astounding
Shamcat

ASTOUNDING: Has found his niche on turf of late. His win two back was sharp, and he followed it up with a solid second when rating off a very slow pace. That day’s winner, Kantune, came back to run well a few days ago; SHAMCAT: Has done very little wrong since going to the grass earlier this year. His lone win to date came going two turns, and he gets such a route this afternoon; CARBON DATA: Ran well to win a key maiden race two back and was likely compromised by a fast pace when favored last out. He shouldn’t have to go nearly as fast early on in this spot. DIRT SELECTIONS: HARLAN PUNCH, GOING STRONG, ASTOUNDING.

R4

Northern Screamer
Lady Paradime
Bon Heir

NORTHERN SCREAMER: Is in career form, having won four in a row heading into this event. This barn hasn’t run many to this point in the meet, but the record says the ones they send out are well-meant; LADY PARADIME: Drops back down to the right level after clunkers against better in each of her last two starts. She was a good second at this route against comparable horses last summer; BON HEIR: Drops down into the straight claiming ranks second off the layoff. She was 8/5 in a stakes race two back, and her best race would be competitive here.

R5

Borsa Vento (MTO)
Let’s Get Loud
My Man Jax

LET’S GET LOUD: Tries two turns for the first time and has the pedigree to love it. He was a decent third behind a pair of next-out winners in his seasonal debut and should improve off that performance; MY MAN JAX: Was second in each of his first two races, which were both turf routes. Those can be tough spots to run well in early on in a horse’s career, and this barn has had a stellar year to this point; NINETY ONE ASSAULT: Gets a two-turn route of ground, and many of his best races have come at that configuration. Hesitation to bet him to win is logical given his prior money-burning ways, but he merits a long look underneath. DIRT SELECTIONS: BORSA VENTO, RIVER DEEP, FASTLANEFRONTMAN.

R6

Devine Union
Tiz Super
Opined

DEVINE UNION: Gets my top pick in a race where I could make a case for most runners. She was so-so as a 2-year-old, but her worktab of late shows she may have taken a big step forward ahead of her 3-year-old debut for powerhouse connections; TIZ SUPER: Faltered when bet in her debut last year, but she came back running last month at Belmont. She was beaten just a length and appears to have come out of that race well judging by the recent drills; OPINED: Ran into some classy runners last year and held her own. She may be favored, but I think she wants more ground than she gets in this spot.

R7

Good Luck Gus (MTO)
Startup Nation
Iron Power

STARTUP NATION: Just missed in a swiftly-run mile race at Belmont in what doubled as his return off a year-long layoff. He won a Grade 2 here in 2014 and has knocked heads with plenty of top turf runners, and there should be plenty of pace to set up for his late kick; IRON POWER: Makes his first start for new trainer Linda Rice and drops down in class. He hasn’t won in a while, but was aggressively-spotted by his previous connections and may appreciate the class relief he gets here; NEVISIAN SKY: Got a perfect setup in his turf debut and stopped the timer in less than 1:20 for the seven-furlong distance. This distance and trip is an unknown, but the faster they go early, the better this one will likely fare. DIRT SELECTIONS: GOOD LUCK GUS, JET BLACK, JOHN’S ISLAND.

R8

Just Got Out (MTO)
Homeland Security
Lucky Long

HOMELAND SECURITY: Won going a mile and a quarter in just her second career start, which is very difficult to do. She’s bred up and down to want to go as long as possible, and she gets my top pick in what I thought was the toughest race of the day to handicap; LUCKY LONG: Could be the only horse in this field with any early zip. She was beaten less than two lengths two back by Morticia, a multiple stakes winner. The blinkers come off, which is often a good sign for a horse with tactical speed; CHURCH SOCIAL: Was a good second at a similar level and route downstate. Rosario getting off this one raises some eyebrows, but Jose Ortiz getting on is intriguing. DIRT SELECTIONS: JUST GOT OUT, HOMELAND SECURITY, FLOWER VALLEY.

R9

Carina Mia
Clipthecouponannie
Going for Broke

CARINA MIA: Boasts a metric ton of back class and gets away from the divisional heavyweights in her first start for Chad Brown. Not having to chase the likes of Songbird and Paulassilverlining should be a big help, and her best race would likely crush this group; CLIPTHECOUPONANNIE: Ran a clunker last time out, but I think you can toss that race. It came over a very tough surface to run on, and she may have bounced off a nice win at this level two back; GOING FOR BROKE: Was second behind Songbird in last year’s Alabama and makes her seasonal debut here. She may want more ground, but her one-turn mile efforts from last year were sharp, and her back class could mean a nice check in her return to the races.

R10

Imperfect Union
Big Expense (MTO)
Purely Lucky

IMPERFECT UNION: Is the only horse in this field with a turf start under her belt. She showed early speed that day for a barn whose horses often need a race to get going. That foundation could be a big help; PURELY LUCKY: Is a half to two stakes winners and has a chance if she’s anywhere close to as precocious as her siblings. She goes out for a barn that excels in turf sprints; MARCH X PRESS: Is a Todd Pletcher trainee with a turf pedigree. He’s a half to Harlan’s Honor, who won a stakes race going short on the sod as a 2-year-old. DIRT SELECTIONS: IMPERFECT UNION, BIG EXPENSE, DATS HER.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/31/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $946.25

Didn’t we just get here? Monday’s card marks the 10th day of the 40-day Saratoga meet, meaning a quarter of the meet will be over at the conclusion of racing today. Part of Saratoga’s charm is the boutique nature of its meet (note to NYRA: change this at your own peril), but it’s striking how quickly the action comes and goes. Hopefully, you’ve been enjoying yourself and have cashed a few tickets along the way.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: We didn’t hit our cold late double, but we still made money. New York’s Finest prevailed at 5-1 in the finale, J.S. Choice was second in the ninth at 7/2, and we cashed out for $63.25, up $38.25 from our $25 investment.

MONDAY’S PLAY: I’ll play a 50-cent late Pick Four ticket built around my best bet of the day. I’ll use #1 CHARMING CLARE, #5 FROSTY LADY, and #10 MY GOOD VENEZUELA in the sixth, single #6 MINSKY MOMENT in the seventh, include #1 LET IT RIDE MOM, #3 NO MORE BABIES, #5 INDIA MANTUANA, #6 EPPING FOREST, #8 MORTICIA, and #9 LADY ALEXANDRA in the eighth, and end with #1 DAB, #9 I MISS MY FATHER (hi, Dad), #10 MARTINO, and #16 BROOKLYN MAJOR (if he draws in) in the ninth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $36

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Minsky Moment, Race 7
Longshot: Frosty Lady, Race 6

R1

Battlement
Miss Kentucky
True Charm

BATTLEMENT: Is strictly the one to beat if you only consider this filly’s sprint races. She’s pace-dependent, but there figures to be plenty of early zip signed on; MISS KENTUCKY: Has showed ample early speed to this point in her career. She tries turf for the first time, but she’s got the pedigree to do well on the lawn; TRUE CHARM: Has run several clunkers on dirt but gets back to her preferred surface and route in this spot. She ran well here twice last year and could be a decent price. DIRT SELECTIONS: MISS KENTUCKY, PRAY FOR BOURBON, BATTLEMENT.

R2

Itsabigboy (MTO)
Peace Speaker
Now in a Drive

PEACE SPEAKER: Showed huge improvement in his first turf start, getting nailed near the wire in his first-ever route. The post position isn’t ideal, but he seems like the main speed in here and may be tough to run down if he gets comfortable; NOW IN A DRIVE: Was edged by my top pick last time out. A repeat of any of his 2017 races could win this, but given that he’s had plenty of chances of late, I’m hesitant to take low odds on him; MOHICAN: Makes his first start since October, but showed some talent as a 2-year-old. Both winners of his two 2016 turf races won at next asking, and he’d benefit from a faster-than-expected early pace. DIRT SELECTIONS: ITSABIGBOY, TARPON BAY ROAD, PEACE SPEAKER.

R3

Moana
Smile Big
Blenheim Palace

MOANA: Has been running against much better of late and takes a big class drop here. She was last seen running third in the Mother Goose, and she may say “you’re welcome” to Todd Pletcher for finding a softer spot; SMILE BIG: Is a consistent router who always seems to show up. She could be forwardly placed today given the likely race shape, and these connections must be respected; BLENHEIM PALACE: Finally broke through last time out after burning plenty of money in maiden races. She comes back to dirt for her first try against winners, but this turned out to be a pretty tough spot.

R4

Shane’s Jewel
Joopster
Factor This

SHANE’S JEWEL: Showed some speed in his debut at Monmouth, which came over a sloppy track. He was bet a bit that day, and John Servis has excelled dropping horses into the maiden claiming ranks; JOOPSTER: Is a well-bred firster with some flashy works, which makes his debut in a maiden claiming race pretty puzzling. Debuting runners from this barn must be respected; FACTOR THIS: May be bred for turf rather than dirt, but has a series of OK works downstate for a barn that has popped at a price here in the past.

R5

Aktabantay
Starship Wildcat
Ray’swarrior (MTO)

AKTABANTAY: Was in a bit too tough last month, but drops to the level he probably wants here. He reeled off two straight wins against claimers before that race, and there should be plenty of speed signed on to set up for his late-running style; STARSHIP WILDCAT: Tried Grade 3 company earlier this month and drops to a more appropriate level here. He did strong work earlier this year at Gulfstream, including running a close second behind the talented Pay Any Price three back; PADILLA: Makes his first start for Chad Summers and has been competitive throughout a busy campaign. The post isn’t great, but he’s a contender with the right trip. DIRT SELECTIONS: RAY’SWARRIOR, FULL SALUTE, NO HIDING PLACE.

R6

Just Got Out (MTO)
My Good Venezuela
Frosty Lady

MY GOOD VENEZUELA: Drops in for a tag second off a layoff for an aggressive barn. She hasn’t run a bad race going long on turf for this outfit, and she gets my top selection in a race that seems pretty wide-open; FROSTY LADY: Was nearly my top pick and may be the controlling early speed in here. She prevailed against state-breds last time out, is a perfect 2-for-2 over this turf course, and seems like a must-use; CHARMING CLARE: Takes a big class drop in her circuit debut for Mike Maker. The rider is one to get familiar with if you’re not already, and she could be a player if the Midwest form comes east. DIRT SELECTIONS: JUST GOT OUT, MERILORE, FLICK OF AN EYE.

R7

Minsky Moment
Blame the Thief
Winston’s Chance

MINSKY MOMENT: Hasn’t done much wrong in three starts and broke through last time out in the slop at Belmont. He tries winners and two turns for the first time, but this doesn’t seem like a tremendous group, and a repeat of either downstate race should be good enough to win; BLAME THE THIEF: Comes back to dirt after two so-so turf efforts at Belmont. His win three back was pretty good, and he could go early, especially with an aggressive rider on his back; WINSTON’S CHANCE: Has won two in a row going long at Finger Lakes and was a daylight winner in his last effort. It remains to be seen if he can rate, but he merits a look in the exotics at an OK price.

R8

India Mantuana
Morticia
Lady Alexandra

INDIA MANTUANA: Was a close-up third last out at Woodbine in what was a pretty steep cutback in distance. She did have a solid setup that day, but with ample early speed signed on here, she could see a similar trip today; MORTICIA: Has yet to run a bad race on turf, and her only loss in five starts on the lawn to date came to the talented La Coronel. She’s a logical favorite, and it helps that she rated a bit last time out; LADY ALEXANDRA: Makes her first start for Tom Proctor and has shown potential to this point in her career. She’s a stakes-placed filly that could sit a solid stalking trip just off the speed. DIRT SELECTIONS: NO MORE BABIES, LET IT RIDE MOM, LADY ALEXANDRA.

R9

Brooklyn Major
Dab
Martino

BROOKLYN MAJOR: Needs two scratches to draw in and has not races in more than a year, but the most recent work indicates he may be ready to run. This would be his first start for a tag, as well as his first start as a gelding; DAB: Comes back to dirt and adds blinkers, which could be handy given the rail draw. He was an OK third at this route in his debut, and he may get the early lead by default given the relative lack of speed in this field; MARTINO: Has been busy this year, having already made 12 starts as a 3-year-old. His most recent outing was probably his best race to date, and it’s encouraging that Castellano stays aboard.